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Community Shootaround: Clippers-Suns Game 2

June 22nd, 2021 at 7:11pm CST by Eli Cohen

The Clippers have faced adversity in each of the first two rounds during this year’s playoffs, and the Western Conference Finals seem to be shaping up no differently.

The Clippers rallied from down 0-2 to Luka Doncic and the Mavericks to win Game Seven, thanks to a well-rounded team effort in round one. In round two, they once again started out down 0-2 to the one-seed Jazz, only to win the next four games in a row, weathering the loss of star Kawhi Leonard to take the final two games in convincing fashion. In doing so, the Clippers became the only team to overcome a 2-0 deficit in multiple series during a single playoff run.

Much of the team’s recent success has been due to Paul George‘s stellar two-way play. The All Star wing has averaged 31.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 5.3 APG, and shot 43.6% from three over his last six games, while providing lock-down, versatile defense. George previously spoke of the feeling of getting “the monkey off the Clippers’ back” in regard to making it past the second round, and it seems that he’s feeling some of that same looseness personally.

Now, once again, the Clippers find themselves down heading into Game Two. Despite another strong game from George, in which he scored 34 points and defended Suns‘ star Devin Booker well all night, it wasn’t enough, as Booker managed to overcome the defense en route to a 40-point triple-double and a six-point victory. Booker became the third-youngest player to record a 40-point triple-double in the playoffs – only Doncic and Oscar Robertson accomplished the feat earlier – and the first Sun to do so since Charles Barkley in 1993.

The Suns are as hot as they’ve ever been. They haven’t lost a game since the third game of the playoffs, and Booker proved his ability to put the team on his back and be a play-maker in the absence of Chris Paul, at least for one game. The question will be if he can sustain that level of play should Paul’s absence continue.

Even if Booker drops off, though, the Suns have generally had a wide range of players they’ve been able to rely on. Third-year center Deandre Ayton has had a breakout playoffs, and has been a consistent source of two-way production. Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and Torrey Craig have all provided scoring and shooting while forming a tight-knit defensive wing rotation, and Cameron Payne has been solid in his role, stepping up to score 11 points and dish out nine assists as he filled in for Paul.

On the other hand, the Clippers’ role players have been a little more sporadic in their contributions. Reggie Jackson has been a consistent source of offense, and Terance Mann has had moments of excellence, but if the Clippers want any hope at making it to the Finals, they’re going to need more from guys like Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, and Patrick Beverley, among others.

This is especially true because, while both players are still on unspecified timetables, it seems likely that Paul could be cleared for a return before Leonard.

All of that makes Game Two a crucial one for the Clippers, who want to avoid a third straight series down 2-0. If the Clippers can split the two road games, and get one while Paul is still out, it bodes well for their chances in the series. If not, they will still have a shot, but it certainly makes things tougher — especially if CP3 does return for the later games.

So the question of the day is: Who will win Game Two between the Clippers and Suns, and who will win the individual duel between George and Booker?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

June 22nd, 2021 at 2:50pm CST by Luke Adams

The Cavaliers‘ 2020/21 season looked pretty similar to most of the team’s LeBron James-less seasons over the last two decades. After remaining in the play-in hunt during the first half, Cleveland went into a tailspin to finish the year — the team lost 23 of its final 28 games and ended up with a 22-50 record, tied for the fourth-work mark in the NBA.

The Cavs have had no shortage of lottery luck over the years, winning the No. 1 pick in 2003, 2011, 2013, and 2014. But the team hasn’t picked in the top four since its latest rebuild began, and as a result hasn’t landed a clear-cut franchise player to build around.

There are reasons to be optimistic about the backcourt duo of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, both of whom have made significant positive strides since entering the league, but neither player is a great defender or a lock to be a future All-Star. Isaac Okoro, meanwhile, is already a strong wing defender, but will need to show more on offense than he did as a rookie in order to become a reliable starter.

Inserting themselves into the four-team James Harden deal in order to land on Jarrett Allen was a nice move by the Cavs, adding a young center to the existing core. Getting back into the playoff mix in the East will likely require the team to make a few more savvy moves like that one.

The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan:

Tonight’s lottery will be big for the Cavs, who will be looking to recapture some of the magic that helped them land the top pick so often in the past. With some luck, they could be in position to nab a future star like Jalen Suggs, Evan Mobley, or even Cade Cunningham. Even if they fall out of the top five, drafting a forward like Scottie Barnes wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize.

Following the draft, the Cavs figure to explore the free agent market for a veteran ball-handler who could be signed with the mid-level exception. Cleveland may also be active on the trade market, with Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman among those who could be shopped. And a trade or buyout are in play for Kevin Love. However, the team’s top priority this summer may be negotiating a pair of contracts with its own players.

First and foremost, Allen will be a restricted free agent, and after surrendering a first-round pick for him, the Cavs will want to make sure he’s locked up long-term. The size of Allen’s payday may ultimately hinge on whether another team makes a push to sign him to an offer sheet, which would increase his value, but he’ll likely be in line for a salary of at least $15-20MM per year either way.

One wild card in the Allen contract talks would be a scenario where the Cavs draft Mobley. Doing so wouldn’t make Cleveland decide to let Allen walk, but it would reduce his leverage, given the positional overlap between the two players.

The Cavs’ other big contract negotiation will be with Sexton, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension before the 2021/22 season begins. Given his ascendant offensive game – he averaged 24.3 points per game in 2020/21 – Sexton will likely be seeking the max or something close to it. The club figures to have some reservations about that sort of investment, given the guard’s defensive shortcomings and his limited ability to facilitate for teammates. The Cavs have been better with him off the court than on it in each of his three seasons to date.

As is the case with Allen and Mobley, if the Cavs end up drafting a guard like Cunningham or Suggs, it may diminish their enthusiasm to rush into a lucrative long-term deal with Sexton.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 3 overall pick ($8,075,160)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Collin Sexton (rookie scale)
  • Kevin Love (veteran)
  • Larry Nance Jr. (veteran)
  • Cedi Osman (veteran)
  • Taurean Prince (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Although the Cavaliers have a little less than $87MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2021/22 at the moment, the cap holds for Allen and the No. 3 overall pick will push them well over the $100MM threshold. That will make it an easy choice to operate as an over-the-cap team unless the club makes a cost-cutting move or two.

Even after accounting for new deals for Allen and possibly Hartenstein, the Cavs should have plenty of breathing room below the luxury-tax line, so they could make use of their full mid-level exception this offseason.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $4,200,000
  • Trade exception: $1,717,981

Footnotes

  1. Hartenstein will be eligible for restricted free agency if he opts out.
  2. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

June 22nd, 2021 at 8:26am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Clippers and Suns. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of five prospects widely considered to be a level above the rest of the class. Cade Cunningham leads the way, followed in some order by Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Kuminga. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2021 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • Note: The Thunder will have the ability to swap the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for this selection if it falls outside of the top four (47.9% chance).
  2. Detroit Pistons
  3. Orlando Magic
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers
  6. Golden State Warriors (from Timberwolves)
    • Note: The Timberwolves will retain this pick if it moves into the top three (27.6% chance).
  7. Toronto Raptors
  8. Orlando Magic (from Bulls)
    • Note: The Bulls will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (20.3% chance).
  9. Sacramento Kings
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
  11. Charlotte Hornets
  12. San Antonio Spurs
  13. Indiana Pacers
  14. Golden State Warriors

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Pistons, and Magic have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Thunder (45.1%), Cavaliers (45.1%), Timberwolves (37.2%), and Raptors (31.9%) have the best odds to land in the top four.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Three trades have the potential to shake up Tuesday’s lottery results in a significant way, potentially altering the course of multiple franchises. Here are the details on those deals:

Rockets/Thunder

The Thunder have the ability to swap either their own first-round pick or the Heat’s first-round pick (No. 18) for the Rockets‘ first-rounder, but only if Houston’ selection lands outside the top four.

Since Oklahoma City’s own pick is also a lottery selection, there are essentially just two scenarios in play here:

  1. The Rockets’ pick lands in the top four and Houston keeps it. The Thunder would keep their own pick, along with the Heat’s pick at No. 18 (52.1% chance).
  2. The Rockets’ pick lands at No. 5 and the Thunder swap the No. 18 pick for it (47.9% chance).

The Thunder’s ability to swap picks with the Rockets won’t carry over to next season if Houston’s pick is protected.

Timberwolves/Warriors

The Timberwolves owe the Warriors their top-three protected first-round pick, so Golden State will receive the pick if it lands at No. 4 or lower. Technically, it can’t end up at No. 5, but 1-4 and 6-10 are all possibilities.

There’s a 27.6% chance this pick lands in the top three and remains with Minnesota, with a 72.4% chance Golden State gets it. It has a 9.6% chance of moving up to No. 4, and a 62.8% chance of ending up between 6-10. No. 7 (29.7%) or No. 8 (20.6%) are the most likely outcomes.

If the Wolves’ pick lands in the top three and is protected, they’d owe the Warriors their unprotected first-round pick in 2022.

Bulls/Magic

The Bulls owe the Magic their top-four protected first-round pick. It can’t land between 5-7, but Orlando will get it if it ends up in the 8-12 range.

There’s a 20.3% chance the pick will move into the top four, allowing Chicago to keep it, with a 79.7% chance Orlando gets it. No. 8 (34.5%) or No. 9 (36.2%) are, by far, the most likely outcomes.

If the Bulls’ pick lands in the top four and is protected, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-round pick in 2022.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The on-camera representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon (former player)
  2. Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace (former player)
  3. Orlando Magic: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder: Nazr Mohammed (OKC Blue general manager / Thunder pro scout)
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Koby Altman (general manager)
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards
  7. Toronto Raptors: Fred VanVleet
  8. Chicago Bulls: Marc Eversley (general manager)
  9. Sacramento Kings: Monte McNair (general manager)
  10. New Orleans Pelicans: Swin Cash (VP of basketball operations and team development)
  11. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges
  12. San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt (managing partner)
  13. Indiana Pacers: Nancy Leonard (former Pacers executive / widow of Hall-of-Famer Slick Leonard)
  14. Golden State Warriors: Rick Welts (president / COO)

Lottery Format:

This will be the third year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results in the last two years have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. If those seventh and eighth lottery seeds get lucky again this year, it’d be great news for Toronto and Chicago.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 19th, 2021 at 4:02pm CST by Eli Cohen

With the offseason trades of Chris Paul and Dennis Schröder last fall, the Thunder officially transitioned from playoff contention to full-scale rebuild.

The team added four first-round picks and multiple second-round picks through deals for Paul, Kelly Oubre (acquired from the Suns in the Paul trade), Danny Green (acquired in the Schröder trade), and other maneuvers, while adding one of the highest-upside rookies in the draft class, the very raw Aleksej Pokusevski, along with solid second round pick Theo Maledon.

An injury limited star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 35 games, while last season’s breakout rookie Luguentz Dort was also in and out of the lineup due to injury. Finally, the team made the decision to bench Al Horford for the second half of the season to allow the young players more minutes and opportunity.

All these factors contributed to the Thunder having their worst year since the 2008/09 season, when they went 23-59 and were rewarded with the third pick, which they used to draft James Harden. The Thunder will hope for similar lottery luck this summer.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:

After making a surprise move to trade Horford, former undrafted center Moses Brown, and a 2023 second-round pick for Kemba Walker, the 16th pick in this year’s draft, and a 2025 second round pick, the Thunder are in an unparalleled position to make a trade, either for a disgruntled young star, or to move up in this year’s draft.

They have five picks in the top 36 of this year’s draft, including three top-2o selections, and have 18 total first round picks over the next six years. They also will be able to swap the 18th pick for the Rockets’ pick this year if it drops out of the top four (there’s about a 48% chance this will happen). Their own pick has a 45% chance of landing in the top four. It’s unlikely the Thunder will use all six of their picks in this year’s draft, making them a prime candidate to make more trades.

Walker, the lone veteran on the roster, stands as a clear target to be moved, either in a draft-day trade or as part of a separate deal in free agency. Walker is owed nearly $74MM over the next two years, assuming he picks up his 2022/23 player option, but he can still be a dangerous scorer and play-maker, despite a down year.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall pick ($5,988,000)
  • No. 16 overall pick ($3,2146,80)
  • No. 18 overall pick ($2,901,240)
  • No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 55 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $12,103,920

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rookie scale)
  • Isaiah Roby (veteran)
  • Kemba Walker (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Thunder have the flexibility to go in a number of different directions this offseason, but the most likely outcome – at least to start the offseason – is that they operate as an above-the-cap team in order to retain their many trade player exceptions, as well as the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.

Williams, Roby and Deck all played well for the Thunder this season and seem likely to have their contracts guaranteed. The cap hold for the Thunder’s first first round pick is likely to be in $5.5MM-$8.3MM range. If the Thunder want to use cap space to throw a lucrative offer at a restricted free agent, they will have to renounce their exceptions.

Much of their cap situation will revolve around whether they’re able to unload Walker’s money to a team that needs a point guard — the Knicks stand out as one team with a need at the position and the cap space to absorb him without needing to send major money back to OKC.

The other big question facing the Thunder is if they can come to terms with Gilgeous-Alexander on a max rookie scale extension. If so, he’ll likely command a five-year, maximum-salary contract that would pay him a projected $167MM+ and would run until the 2026/27 season.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
  • Trade exception: $27,528,088
  • Trade exception: $12,800,000
  • Trade exception: $10,100,000
  • Trade exception: $9,590,602
  • Trade exception: $1,517,981
  • Trade exception: $908,960
  • Trade exception: $865,853
  • Trade exception: $850,600
  • Trade exception: $332,940

Footnotes

  1. Roby’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 4.
  2. The cap holds for these players remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values. If the Thunder use cap room, they’d renounce these exceptions and their TPEs and would only have the room exception ($4.9MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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Community Shootaround: Bucks-Nets Game 7

June 18th, 2021 at 6:46pm CST by Dana Gauruder

There’s been plenty of activity around the NBA the last couple of weeks. A flurry of coaching changes, some front office moves, finger-pointing regarding injuries and star players opting in or out of the Tokyo Olympics. We even saw a major trade – Kemba Walker and another first-round pick headed to Oklahoma City, Al Horford returning to Boston – on Friday.

All this has somewhat overshadowed the ultimatum aim – winning a championship. Other than the Suns’ sweep of the Jamal Murray-less Nuggets, the conference semifinals have been entertaining, with several wild comebacks tossed in.

The Sixers and Jazz are fighting for their playoff lives on Friday and the Bucks–Nets matchup has already reached a Game 7.

The Milwaukee-Brooklyn series figured to be hotly contested, though it didn’t look that way after the first two games. The Nets blew out the Bucks to take a 2-0 lead but injury issues to James Harden and Kyrie Irving helped the Bucks storm back in the series.

Milwaukee squandered a chance to win on the Nets’ home floor in Game 5, but big offensive games from Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 6 forced Saturday’s do-or-die showdown at Barclays Center. Harden toughed it out through 40 minutes, but only took nine shots and scored 16 points.

Brooklyn clearly needs another monster game from Kevin Durant (33.3 PPG in the series) to advance, especially with Irving remaining sidelined. Antetokounmpo has won two MVP awards, but star players are judged by playoff success. Carrying his team to a Game 7 road victory would be a defining moment in his career.

That leads us to our question of the day: Who will win Game 7 between the Bucks and Nets and what will make the difference?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Playoff Edition

June 17th, 2021 at 7:02pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. With the playoffs in full swing, we take a look at players on teams still alive in the postseason:

Lou Williams, Hawks, 34, PG/SG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $24MM deal in 2018

When the Clippers and Hawks swapped veteran point guards at the trade deadline, the general consensus was that Los Angeles pulled off a coup landing Rajon Rondo. It doesn’t look that way right now. Rondo has only played nine minutes in the last four games against Utah, while Williams had 15 points, three assists and two steals in 23 minutes during Atlanta’s dramatic Game 5 comeback at Philadelphia on Wednesday.

Williams may not possess Rondo’s leadership qualities, but he’s been instant offense for many seasons wherever he’s played. The 34-year-old has been in the league since 2005 but he can stick around a few more seasons due to his offensive prowess.

Jeff Green, Nets, 34, PF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.56MM deal in 2020

It’s amazing to think that the Jazz had no use for Green midway through last season and put him on waivers. The Rockets scooped him up and he was highly productive. He’s doing the same thing for the Nets. After a solid regular season, Green battled a foot injury that sidelined him for six postseason games. Back in action, Green delivered a monster performance in Game 5 against Milwaukee, firing in 27 points while draining 7-of-8 3-point attempts. Green won’t have any trouble finding work as an unrestricted free agent this summer, whether he re-signs with Brooklyn or joins another contender.

Reggie Jackson, Clippers, 31, PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.33MM deal in 2020

A TNT broadcaster called Jackson “Mr. June” as he made several clutch baskets in Game 5 at Utah on Wednesday. He’s not on the level of baseball’s “Mr. October” but this Reggie Jackson is proving to be a consistent playoff performer for the Clippers. He averaged 15.4 PPG against Dallas in the opening round, including a 25-point outing in Game 6. He scored 29 points in Game 2 and 22 in Game 5 against the Jazz. Jackson has also kept his turnovers down to a minimum. After having to settle for the veteran’s minimum in free agency last year, he’s due for a substantial raise when he enters the market again this summer.

Mike Conley, Jazz, 33, PG (Down) – Signed to a five-year, $152.6MM deal in 2016

Conley finally got his first taste of the All-Star Game this season. He got off to an impressive start in these playoffs, scoring 20 or more points in the first three games against Memphis. The injury bug soon bit him as Utah closed out the series and he’s been sidelined with a hamstring strain throughout the second round. That’s the main concern with Conley as he enters unrestricted free agency – he’s had numerous leg injuries in recent seasons. That could limit the amount of years teams will be willing to offer him.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Orlando Magic

June 17th, 2021 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

Losing Jonathan Isaac to a torn ACL during last summer’s restart at Walt Disney World set the Magic back in a major way for the 2020/21 season, but the team still entered the year hoping to make the postseason for a third straight time. That wasn’t in the cards, however, as another ACL tear – this time for Markelle Fultz – and a handful of lesser injuries set Orlando back even further.

After a solid 6-2 start, the Magic cratered, falling to 13-27 by mid-March. That was around the time that top basketball executives Jeff Weltman and John Hammond decided a full-fledged teardown was in the franchise’s best long-term interests.

Nikola Vucevic? Gone. Aaron Gordon? Gone. Evan Fournier? Also gone. By the time the dust settled, the Magic were left with a few extra future first-round picks and an intriguing group of young players, with Isaac, Fultz, Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke, and Mohamed Bamba joined by Wendell Carter and R.J. Hampton.

After the last retooling of the roster culminated in nothing more than a middle-of-the-pack squad, Magic fans may feel a bit discouraged to see their team start building from the ground up again. But Weltman, the team’s president of basketball operations, is optimistic about the outlook in Orlando. He told reporters last month that, since joining the organization, he’s never felt more excited about its future than he does right now.

The Magic’s Offseason Plan:

The Magic’s previous rebuild stalled out in part because the club either whiffed on some top picks (like Mario Hezonja) or failed to properly develop them and ultimately sold low (like Victor Oladipo).

No team has better odds than Orlando to land a top-four pick in this year’s draft, so the club is in a great position to secure a long-term cornerstone piece, and it’s important to get that pick right. If the Magic receive the Bulls’ top-four protected pick this year (it has better than 70% odds to land at No. 8 or No. 9), nailing that second lottery selection would a big step forward for the rebuild as well.

Otherwise, the Magic’s offseason could look a lot like that of the Rockets and Pistons — like those teams, Orlando doesn’t have much cap flexibility yet and shouldn’t be a major player in free agency, but could be more active on the trade market.

Gary Harris‘ $20MM expiring contract isn’t necessarily a net positive, but Harris remains a useful role player and that cap number isn’t too onerous to move — the Magic could probably get a modest asset in exchange for him if they’re willing to take on multiyear money in return.

Terrence Ross, who has two years and $23MM left on his deal, is the more attractive trade chip, since there will be no shortage of teams looking to add outside shooting at a reasonable price. While his dip in three-point percentage in 2020/21 (33.7%) may hurt his value, getting a first-round pick in a deal for Ross isn’t entirely out of the question, especially if Orlando takes an unwanted contract back for him.

Michael Carter-Williams, on an expiring $3.3MM contract, could be a trade chip as well, though the Magic might want to keep him around as a veteran mentor for Fultz.

It’s also worth noting that Carter and Bamba will be eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason. I could see the Magic trying to work something out with Carter, like they did a year ago with Isaac and Fultz, but Bamba will probably have to show more next season to earn a second contract from the team.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 5 overall pick ($6,593,040)
  • No. 8 overall pick ($5,007,840)
  • No. 33 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $11,600,880

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Mohamed Bamba (rookie scale)
  • Wendell Carter (rookie scale)
  • Gary Harris (veteran)
  • Terrence Ross (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Although the Magic only have about $94MM in guaranteed salaries on their books for the time being and aren’t assured of bringing back any of their free agents, various cap holds and exceptions will likely push them over the cap.

The team’s two top-eight draft picks, for instance, have a combined cap hold of over $11.5MM. The team also had a trade exception worth $17MM+ that it won’t forfeit just to claim a small piece of cap space.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 5
  • Trade exception: $17,150,000
  • Trade exception: $4,272,060
  • Trade exception: $2,000,000

Footnotes

  1. Bacon’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 9.
  2. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Randle is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  3. This is a projected value. Porter’s cap hit will be the maximum salary for a player with 7-9 years of NBA service.
  4. The cap holds for Afflalo and Speights remain on the Magic’s books from a prior season because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

June 16th, 2021 at 2:44pm CST by Luke Adams

When Troy Weaver took the reins as the Pistons‘ general manager in 2020, fans and observers were a little caught off guard by his initial series of roster moves.

The rebuilding Pistons signed non-star veteran free agents like Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee to multiyear contracts; acquired players like Dewayne Dedmon and Zhaire Smith, only to waive-and-stretch them; and gave up nearly all of their future second-round picks along with Luke Kennard and Bruce Brown in order to land a third first-round pick in the draft.

Weaver’s unorthodox approach to rebuilding – or, as he calls it, “restoring” – didn’t exactly pay immediate dividends, as the Pistons’ 20-52 record was the worst in the Eastern Conference. But the Pistons’ crop of rookies – Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Bey, and Saben Lee – had promising seasons, Grant thrived in an increased role, and Plumlee proved to be a worthwhile investment.

It may still be a couple years before the Pistons are back in the postseason, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the club’s future.

The Pistons’ Offseason Plan:

The 2021 NBA draft is widely considered to have a top tier of five players, and there’s approximately an 80% chance the Pistons will secure a top-five pick, putting the team in position to select Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, or Jonathan Kuminga.

Drafting any of those players would be a great start to the offseason for Weaver and company. Landing at No. 6 would be a setback, but would still give Detroit a chance to add a promising prospect to its young core.

The dead money that the Blake Griffin buyout left on the Pistons’ books for 2021/22 will hinder the team from opening up a ton of cap room. But as we saw last fall, Weaver won’t hesitate to take some chances and make the most of what little space the team does have.

Still, I wouldn’t expect the Pistons to be quite as active or aggressive as they were a year ago, when they were involved in seven offseason trades and handed out multiple long-term contracts in free agency. Weaver will certainly continue working to reshape the roster to meet his vision, but I’d be surprised if the Pistons’ lottery pick isn’t the team’s most noteworthy roster addition this summer.

Detroit’s figures to focus on finding under-the-radar value and perhaps even using its limited cap room to accommodate a salary-dump trade that helps replenish the team’s collection of second-round picks. Then, the priority will be player development — the organization has already brought in John Beilein and is overhauling Dwane Casey‘s coaching staff with that goal in mind.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 1 overall pick ($10,050,120)
  • No. 37 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 42 overall pick (no cap hold) 5
  • No. 52 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Cory Joseph (veteran)
  • Rodney McGruder (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Pistons have $88MM in guaranteed money on their books and will retain Diallo’s $2MM cap hold as they look to work out a new deal with him. That puts the team in position to operate either over or under the cap, depending in large part on whether they want to bring back Joseph. The cap hold for their first-round pick will also be a factor — it could be worth $10MM+ if it’s the No. 1 pick or less than $6MM if it’s No. 6.

My best guess for now is that the Pistons will waive Joseph before his salary becomes fully guaranteed and perhaps stretch his partial guarantee across three years, maximizing their flexibility in 2021. That could leave the team with $15MM+ in potential cap space. But again, if Detroit lands the first overall pick and/or really wants to keep Joseph around, operating over the cap – and having the full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available – is another viable path for the team.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 6

Footnotes

  1. Joseph’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  2. McGruder’s salary becomes fully guaranteed in mid-August (exact date TBD).
  3. Cook’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 10.
  4. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Jackson is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  5. This pick could move up to No. 41 if San Antonio’s first-round pick moves ahead of Charlotte’s in the lottery.
  6. This is a projected value. If the Pistons operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM), bi-annual exception ($3.7MM), and a trade exception ($2MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

June 15th, 2021 at 9:19am CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets entered the 2020/21 league year with – at the very least – playoff aspirations. The team was coming off a disappointing second-round exit in the 2020 postseason, but after adding Christian Wood in free agency, there was a sense that if everything broke right, the roster still had enough talent to compete for a top spot in the West and make a deep postseason run.

Instead, injuries, COVID-19 issues, and James Harden‘s trade demand tanked Houston’s season almost before it began. The club managed to tread water for a little while, even after trading Harden in January, and was above .500 (11-10) as late as February 5. But injuries and a lack of star talent eventually caught up to the Rockets, who went into full-fledged seller mode by the trade deadline and finished the season by losing an incredible 45 of their last 51 games.

The Rockets’ Offseason Plan:

Lottery night will be crucial for the Rockets, who have slightly better than 50/50 odds to keep their top-four protected pick. If that selection lands at No. 5, Houston would have to send it to Oklahoma City in exchange for No. 18. If it ends up in the top four, the Rockets will be in prime position to draft a long-term cornerstone for their rebuild.

Either way though, the Rockets will have three first-round selections, including two in the 20s. Whether they use all of those picks or end up trading one or two, general manager Rafael Stone will be under pressure to maximize their value. Virtually all of the most valuable assets the team received in the Harden deal were future picks and swaps, so Stone is betting on his ability to draft well and perhaps uncover some hidden gems during the next few seasons.

Without a ton of cap flexibility, the Rockets appear unlikely to be particularly active on the free agent market. Waiting until the second or third wave of free agency to hunt for veterans on bargains makes sense for the club — those vets could contribute in the short term and perhaps be flipped for assets at next year’s trade deadline.

Stone figures to be more active in trade talks, with John Wall, Eric Gordon, D.J. Augustin, and Danuel House among the players who should be available for the right return. However, Wall and Gordon are coming off injuries and have pricey salaries, which will make it tricky for the Rockets to find decent value for them.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • D.J. Wilson ($6,422,171 qualifying offer / $13,644,840 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $13,644,840

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 2 overall pick ($8,992,200)
  • No. 23 overall pick ($2,353,320)
  • No. 24 overall pick ($2,259,240)
  • Total: $13,604,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • John Wall (veteran)
  • Danuel House (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With only about $89MM in guaranteed money on their books, the Rockets could theoretically have a little cap room this offseason. However, the non-guaranteed salaries for Tate and Martin will almost certainly be guaranteed and the cap holds for their first-round picks will significantly cut into their projected space.

It’s possible Houston will make a trade or two to reduce team salary and generate cap room, but for the time being, we’re assuming the club will operate over the cap, which would allow the front office to keep its various exceptions and to retain Olynyk’s Bird rights.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 2
  • Trade exception: $8,180,351
  • Trade exception: $5,019,920
  • Trade exception: $2,174,318
  • Trade exception: $1,780,152
  • Trade exception: $103,894

Footnotes

  1. Martin’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 1.
  2. These are projected values.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Western Conference

June 11th, 2021 at 7:29pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. With the playoffs in full swing, we take a look at players from the Western Conference:

Andre Drummond, Lakers, 27, C (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $794K deal in 2021

Drummond had a golden opportunity to show he could perform in the biggest moments. He was reportedly promised a starting spot by the Lakers after he reached a buyout agreement with Cleveland and cleared waivers. Drummond withered in the spotlight and was benched for Game 6 of the first-round series with Phoenix.

Coach Frank Vogel lavished praise on Drummond after the season, saying “We’re hopeful that he’s a Laker for a long time.” That seems like a long shot, considering how the postseason played out.

The two-time All-Star is still only 27 but his status has fallen dramatically over the past two seasons. He might be fortunate to receive the mid-level from a team seeking an elite rebounder.

Serge Ibaka, Clippers, 31, PF/C (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $19MM deal in 2020

Ibaka said last month he’s been dealing with back pain all season caused by a pinched nerve. It continued to hamper him to the point where he underwent back surgery on Thursday. He only appeared in 41 games during the regular season and had been limited to two postseason games.

Several contenders were interested in Ibaka during free agency last year due to his postseason track record. He was considered the Clippers’ most important addition during the offseason but now they’ll have to strive for a championship without one of their top frontcourt players. Ibaka holds a $9.72MM option on his contract for next season and it’s a safe bet he’ll take the guaranteed money.

Langston Galloway, Suns, 29, SG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal in 2020

Galloway signed a one-year contract for the veteran’s minimum to join an improving team seeking a second-unit shooter. He was Detroit’s top reserve a season ago but the opportunities haven’t been there in Phoenix. He only saw action in 40 games during the regular season and has made two cameos in the playoffs. The Suns have gone with a three-man rotation in the backcourt – Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Cameron Payne – rendering Galloway as a spectator. Galloway will likely have to settle for a similar contract next season from a team that promises to give him more playing time.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Mavericks, 29, SG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $71MM deal in 2017

The Mavericks need to improve their supporting cast around Luka Doncic but they don’t want to lose Hardaway. Despite his Game 7 clunker (11 points, 1-for-9 on threes), Hardaway and Dorian Finney-Smith were the team’s most impactful players besides Doncic during the first-round series against the Clippers.

The Mavericks have made re-signing Hardaway a high priority. They’ll have some competition for his services and they to be cognizant of weighing down their future cap with enigmatic Kristaps Porzingis on the books for three more seasons (including a player option). But Hardaway is in a good spot to get another lucrative multiyear deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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