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Community Shootaround: U.S. Olympic Team

July 13th, 2021 at 8:13am CST by Luke Adams

After losing their first exhibition game to Nigeria on Saturday, the U.S. men’s basketball team dropped its second pre-Olympics tune-up to Australia on Monday, falling 91-83 to the Boomers. Team USA has now lost four of its last five international contests with NBA players on the roster, dating back to the 2019 FIBA World Cup.

As Joe Vardon of The Athletic writes, conditioning has been an issue for the USA team so far, as has rebounding — the roster is fairly undersized, especially with bigs like Bam Adebayo and Kevin Love playing sparingly.

Reinforcements will be coming for Tokyo, with three players who are participating in the NBA Finals – Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton – set to join the Olympic roster once the NBA season ends.

But it’s becoming increasingly clear that the gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world isn’t as significant as it once was, especially when the NBA veterans representing other international programs – including Australia – have spent so much more time playing together.

“We’re not just going to come out here, roll the ball out and beat these teams,” U.S. point guard Damian Lillard said after Monday’s loss. “We’ve got to play the right way, compete, and we’ve got to come out here to win and do everything to give ourselves our best chance to win. If we don’t, we can be beat.”

While Team USA will still be the overwhelming favorite to win the gold medal in Tokyo next month, the squad’s first two exhibition games have been a reminder that bringing home the gold isn’t a given.

France and the Czech Republic could give the U.S. some trouble in the round-robin group stage of the Olympic tournament, while Australia, Spain, Nigeria, and Slovenia (featuring Luka Doncic) are among the teams that could be threats to pull off an upset in the medal round.

We want to know what you think. Do you still expect the U.S. to win gold? Have these exhibition losses caused your confidence to waver? Do you believe there are flaws in the way the roster was constructed that could be exposed at the Olympics?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

July 12th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After an injury-plagued 2019/20 season in which they barely sneaked into the Western Conference playoffs, the Trail Blazers entered the ’20/21 campaign with loftier goals. Portland added Robert Covington and Derrick Jones on the wing and was counting on the frontcourt duo of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins to get healthy and help complement the team’s star backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

However, injuries continued to be a problem for Nurkic, who missed half the season, and for Collins, who missed the entire year. And while Covington meshed well with the current core, Jones didn’t have the impact the Blazers had hoped for, falling out of the rotation in the second half.

President of basketball operations Neil Olshey added some midseason reinforcements by acquiring Norman Powell from Toronto, but it wasn’t enough to make a serious playoff run. Portland was eliminated from the postseason in the first round by a shorthanded Nuggets squad, spelling the end of Terry Stotts‘ tenure as the club’s head coach.

The offseason has gotten off to a shaky start in Portland. There are questions about whether Lillard’s loyalty to the franchise might start wavering after what he called the most frustrating season of his career, and the Blazers came under fire for hiring Chauncey Billups as their new head coach in light of the sexual assault allegations he faced in 1997.

The Blazers said they investigated the incident and came away confident that Billups hadn’t engaged in any wrongdoing, but their caginess and lack of transparency left many fans with a bad taste. Olshey and Billups may have some work to do to ensure that both Lillard and those fans feel comfortable moving forward with the franchise.

The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan:

The Blazers will be capped out even before attempting to re-sign Powell, all but eliminating free agency as a viable path for pursuing roster upgrades. The team also doesn’t have either of its 2021 draft picks, having traded away its first-rounder last year for Covington and its second-rounder two years ago for Rodney Hood.

That leaves the trade market as Olshey’s best bet for reshaping the roster.

Lillard is, of course, Portland’s best trade chip, but the team won’t move the All-NBA point guard unless he expresses a desire to leave. Lillard has long been loyal to the Blazers and still has four years left on his contract, so I wouldn’t expect him to force his way out this summer — it’s not impossible, but I imagine he’ll want to at least see what Billups brings to the team before making any major decisions.

If Lillard is off the table, that leaves McCollum and Nurkic as two potential major trade chips for the Blazers. Olshey has long insisted he doesn’t want to break up Portland’s high-scoring backcourt duo, but trading McCollum for an impact forward or big man would certainly help balance the roster. It’s unclear how high McCollum’s value will be on the trade market though, since he has $100MM left on his contract and will be entering his age-30 season.

Nurkic, meanwhile, has played solid two-way basketball in the middle in the past, but leg injuries have limited his effectiveness. The veteran center also dropped hints at the end of the season that he didn’t necessarily envision a long-term future for himself in Portland. While his value isn’t as high as it would’ve been two years ago, his $12MM expiring salary would certainly be movable. He’d even have positive value if he’s back to full health.

No other players on the Blazers’ roster should be untouchable, though Covington is on a team-friendly deal and the club may still be high on young players like Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little, despite their up-and-down development.

In free agency, re-signing Powell should be a priority, especially if the Blazers make a trade involving McCollum. Portland gave up a productive and controllable rotation player in Gary Trent Jr. to acquire Powell and won’t want to lose him for nothing.

Collins once looked like a long-term keeper, but he has undergone three surgeries on his foot in the last year. It’s possible he’ll be back, but it would have to be at a bargain rate. Portland may not even tender him a qualifying offer.

Role players like Carmelo Anthony and Enes Kanter will also be free agents and seem to enjoy playing for the Blazers. If Lillard remains in Portland, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them stick around too.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jusuf Nurkic ($8,000,000) 2
  • Total: $1,824,003

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Anfernee Simons (rookie scale)
  • Robert Covington (veteran)
  • Jusuf Nurkic (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

It’s a safe bet that the Blazers will guarantee Nurkic’s salary for 2021/22, and Jones seems likely to opt in. Those moves would bring Portland’s total guaranteed commitments to about $115.5MM for eight players, pushing team salary over the cap. If they re-sign Powell, the Blazers may find themselves in luxury tax territory again next season.

For now, we’re assuming Portland will have its full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception available, but that could change if team salary creeps into the $130-135MM range (or higher).

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 7
  • Trade exception: $1,737,145
  • Trade exception: $1,663,861
  • Trade exception: $661,655

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Lillard’s salary will be 35% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Nurkic’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 3.
  3. Powell’s decision is reportedly due by July 22.
  4. Jones’ decision is reportedly due by July 28.
  5. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Leaf is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  6. The cap hold for Swanigan remains on the Trail Blazers’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal. The Blazers also can’t offer Swanigan a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his rookie scale team option for 2020/21 was declined.
  7. These are projected values. If the Trail Blazers approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Following Specific Players On Hoops Rumors

July 12th, 2021 at 3:13pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors makes it easy to keep up with your favorite NBA teams as they plot their next moves, and we also provide multiple ways to follow the latest updates on all of your favorite players, including the top free agents and trade candidates from around the league.

You can get news about players wherever you go with our Trade Rumors app, available for iOS and Android devices. The app, which is free, allows you to add a feed for any player and set up notifications that will alert you whenever we write about him. It’s the easiest way to keep tabs on specific players.

If you’re using the desktop or mobile version of our site, there are other ways to follow your favorite player(s). Every player we’ve written about has his own rumors page. You can find any player by using our search box, by clicking his tag at the bottom of a post in which he’s discussed, or by simply typing his name in your address bar after hoopsrumors.com, substituting dashes for spaces.

For example, LeBron James‘ page is hoopsrumors.com/lebron-james. Those player pages can be added to RSS readers too.

In addition to players, there are a number of other subjects you can track by clicking on the tags that we use at the bottom of posts or by searching for them in the app.

For instance, you can keep tabs on our 2021 NBA draft stories right here. Items about the NBA G League can be found on this page. Olympics-related stories about the Tokyo games are all here. And you can simply scan our top stories here.

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Checking In On NBA’s Offseason Coaching Changes

July 12th, 2021 at 12:40pm CST by Luke Adams

With the NBA draft just two-and-a-half weeks away, a pair of teams are still without a head coach.

The Wizards, who opted not to bring back Scott Brooks after he spent five years at the helm in D.C., were said to be conducting second interviews with finalists last week, meaning they should be close to making a decision. Wes Unseld Jr., Darvin Ham, and Charles Lee are among the team’s remaining candidates.

The other team with a vacancy is New Orleans. Having parted ways with Stan Van Gundy after just one season, the Pelicans are seeking a head coach who can better connect with their young players, including star forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Lee, a finalist for the Washington job, is also still in the mix for the Pelicans’ position too, with Willie Green and Fred Vinson among the other candidates receiving serious consideration.

Five other teams made coaching changes since the regular season ended. The details on those completed searches are as follows:

  • Boston Celtics: Hired Ime Udoka to replace Brad Stevens (transitioned to front office role).
  • Dallas Mavericks: Hired Jason Kidd to replace Rick Carlisle.
  • Indiana Pacers: Hired Rick Carlisle to replace Nate Bjorkgren.
  • Orlando Magic: Hired Jamahl Mosley to replace Steve Clifford.
  • Portland Trail Blazers: Hired Chauncey Billups to replace Terry Stotts.

Technically, the Hawks also named a new permanent head coach this offseason, since Nate McMillan only held the interim role up until last week. However, his promotion was long expected, and Atlanta didn’t conduct any sort of search before announcing that McMillan would keep the job.

We’ve been keeping an eye on the Bucks‘ situation throughout the postseason, since there was a sense Mike Budenholzer‘s job would be in danger if Milwaukee failed to make a deep playoff run. It’s possible Budenholzer could still be replaced if the Bucks lose the next two games in embarrassing fashion, but the team is currently three games away from a title, so it’s safe to assume the head coach’s seat isn’t nearly as hot as it was a month ago.

The rest of the NBA’s teams have had plenty of time to make a coaching change if they felt the need to do so. It’s not out of the question that one more summer surprise could be on the way (maybe Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich abruptly retiring after winning Olympic gold with Team USA?), but the odds are against it. At this point, we’re assuming the other 21 teams are happy with their current coaches and won’t be making changes prior to the start of the 2021/22 season.

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Community Shootaround: Expansion

July 9th, 2021 at 8:29pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The NHL’s expansion draft for its newest franchise, the Seattle Kraken, will be held in less than two weeks. It comes just four years after Las Vegas was added to the league.

The other major winter sports league doesn’t seem to be in any rush to add new franchises, however. Commissioner Adam Silver was asked about the possibility of increasing the league’s 30-team membership this week. He made it clear that it’s not near the top of his priority list.

“The most important considerations for us when we look at expansion is, will it ultimately grow the pie? Meaning, it’s potentially 30 more jobs if you expand with two teams,” Silver said. “You expand the league’s footprint. How does that help us in varying ways, sort of increased support nationally. So we’ll continue to look at it. I mean, I’ve said this many times before, we’re certainly not suggesting we’re locked at 30 teams. I think at some point it will make sense to expand, but it’s just not at the top of the agenda right now.”

Seattle, which lost its franchise to Oklahoma City, has long been considered the most likely city to get the next franchise. Las Vegas is also a strong contender, but there are plenty of other options.

Domestically, Kansas City, Louisville, San Diego, Nashville, Tampa and Pittsburgh have been mentioned to varying degrees; the league could also look at major international cities such as London, Vancouver, Montreal and Mexico City.

The Players Association would likely endorse expansion, since it would create more opportunities for players to wear an NBA uniform.

That leads us to our question of the day: Should the NBA seriously consider expansion in the near future? If so, which cities are most deserving of a franchise?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

July 9th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Just about everything went right for the Heat during the summer restart in the Walt Disney World bubble last summer. Having entered the playoffs as a No. 5 seed in the East, Miami won three consecutive series as the road team, then came within two wins of a championship before falling to the Lakers.

The Heat brought back a pretty similar roster in 2020/21, aiming to finish higher in the standings and make another deep playoff run. But health issues limited the team’s ability to build much momentum during the regular season, and the departures of some key role players (such as Jae Crowder) – along with underwhelming or nonexistent contributions from new additions (including Victor Oladipo) – were major factors in Miami’s lack of postseason success.

With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo locked up for multiple seasons, the Heat have a solid All-Star duo to build around, but president of basketball operations Pat Riley may consider making significant roster changes around that duo after Miami became the only one of this year’s 16 playoff teams not to win a single game in the postseason.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan:

The Heat enter the offseason with only five players under contract: Butler, Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and KZ Okpala. That gives the team some flexibility to go in multiple directions.

A year ago, the Heat had the ability to create some cap room, but instead chose to re-sign several of their own free agents, operate over the cap, and use the mid-level exception to try to add a role player or two. It’s possible Miami will go that route again this summer.

The team options for Goran Dragic ($19MM+) and Andre Iguodala ($15MM) may be a little higher than the club would like, but both players could be re-signed even if their options are declined, and Miami would have the ability to bring back some combination of Oladipo, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Trevor Ariza, and Nemanja Bjelica too. Dewayne Dedmon could also be re-signed, though the Heat would have to use an exception to do so if he’s seeking more than the minimum, since he’ll only have Non-Bird rights.

On the other hand, if the Heat aren’t convinced that running it back again is a good play, they could let most of those free agents walk and try their luck on the open market — they’d have $20MM+ in cap room even if they retained the modest cap holds for Nunn and Robinson (they could go over the cap to re-sign those two RFAs after using their cap space).

Still, considering this year’s free agent class is somewhat underwhelming and $20MM likely wouldn’t get them a star-caliber player, I’d expect the Heat to operate over the cap and try to land an impact player on the trade market.

Exercising Dragic’s or Iguodala’s team option would give the Heat a sizeable expiring contract to use for salary-matching (they could pick up both options if needed), and while their ability to trade future first-round picks is somewhat limited, they have valuable young players – such as Herro and Achiuwa – who could be dangled as trade chips.

One potential target to keep an eye on is Kyle Lowry, who is close friends with Butler. The Heat pursued Lowry at the March trade deadline, but were reportedly unwilling to part with Herro to make a deal happen. The Heat could theoretically clear enough cap room to make him a strong offer, so if Lowry wants to team up with Butler, the Raptors’ leverage in sign-and-trade talks would decrease. That would allow Miami to negotiate more favorable trade terms and hang onto Herro, possibly for another trade down the road.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jimmy Butler (veteran)
  • KZ Okpala (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

As noted above, the Heat could create over $20MM+ in cap room by declining all their team options and renouncing all their free agents except Nunn and Robinson. Renouncing Nunn and Robinson would get the team up to $28MM+ in cap space.

But unless there’s an extremely compelling reason to clear that space, I don’t see Miami giving up its rights to so many useful players. The bet here is that the Heat operate as an over-the-cap team and bring back a few of their own free agents.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 5

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Adebayo’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Yurtseven’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  3. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Heat for two seasons, Vincent is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  4. The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values. If the Heat approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM). If they decided to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

July 8th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Having made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020, the Celtics entered the 2020/21 season looking to make it at least that far again. But things never quite gelled for this year’s iteration of the C’s, as injuries, COVID-19 issues, and inconsistent on-court production were all major factors in a disappointing year.

The Celtics still made the playoffs, but it took a play-in win to get there after the team finished with an underwhelming .500 record (36-36). And Boston’s postseason run was short-lived, as the club was unceremoniously dispatched by Brooklyn in the first round.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown still look like capable cornerstones on a future title contender, but the Celtics will need to find a way to surround them with more reliable complementary pieces. That task will fall to Brad Stevens, who made the move from the sidelines to the front office after longtime president of basketball operations Danny Ainge stepped down.

In his first month on the job, Stevens wasted no time in completing a pair of major moves, hiring Ime Udoka to replace him as Boston’s head coach and sending Kemba Walker and a first-round pick to Oklahoma City for Al Horford and Moses Brown in a trade that will create some added financial flexibility for the franchise over the next two seasons.

The Celtics’ Offseason Plan:

Moving Walker’s oversized contract should help the Celtics avoid a significant tax bill in 2021/22, but replacing him with Horford doesn’t really move the needle for the team on the court. More roster moves will be necessary to make Boston a legitimate contender.

Besides the contracts for Tatum, Brown, and Marcus Smart, all of which are good values, the Celtics’ guaranteed salaries fall into two groups: veteran big men who are probably overpaid (Horford and Tristan Thompson, earning a combined $37MM), and inexpensive role players still on their rookie deals (Romeo Langford, Robert Williams, Aaron Nesmith, Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard, and Carsen Edwards).

If the Celtics hope to increase their ceiling, they’ll need to either cobble together a reliable rotation from those pieces or use them to trade for rotation players. It may be time to start moving on from some of those former first-round picks who haven’t developed like the team has hoped. Two or three of those players could be keepers – Pritchard had an especially promising rookie season – but Boston should be willing to deal several of the others — having not drafted them himself, Stevens may not feel as attached to them as Ainge did.

Meanwhile, Horford’s contract is only partially guaranteed beyond this season and Thompson’s deal is expiring, so both players are movable, even if they don’t have positive value. The Celtics also have a handful of trade exceptions that could be useful, including one worth $11MM.

In free agency, figuring out a new deal with Evan Fournier figures to be a top priority. If you take into account the two second-round picks the Celtics sent the Hornets last offseason to generate the massive trade exception later used to take on Fournier, the cost to acquire him essentially worked out to four second-rounders. The organization won’t want to let him walk for nothing after paying that price.

The Celtics also figure to discuss contract extensions with Smart and Robert Williams, both of whom are entering the final year of their contracts. Smart, who should have a bigger role with Walker gone, may have more leverage to negotiate a lucrative new deal than Williams, who could find himself battling for minutes in a crowded frontcourt. Of course, if Stevens wants to take another big swing on the trade market for a point guard, Smart may have to be included in Boston’s offer.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jabari Parker ($2,283,034) 2
  • Moses Brown ($1,201,593)
  • Total: $3,484,627

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Robert Williams (rookie scale)
  • Carsen Edwards (veteran)
  • Al Horford (veteran)
  • Marcus Smart (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Celtics will certainly be over the cap this summer. Whether or not they go over the luxury tax line depends on whether Fournier returns and whether the team cuts costs in trades. If we assume Fournier re-signs at a reasonable rate (perhaps $15MM), Boston would need to shed some salary elsewhere to stay out of the tax.

Without Fournier, the Celtics may have enough breathing room to use the entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception. But my bet for now is that Fournier will be back and that the team will be limited to the taxpayer MLE.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 4
  • Trade exception: $11,050,000
  • Trade exception: $6,879,100
  • Trade exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,767,000
  • Trade exception: $370,564
  • Trade exception: $343,873

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Tatum’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Parker’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100K) after July 31.
  3. Because they have been on two-way contracts with the Celtics for two seasons, Fall and Waters are eligible for standard minimum-salary qualifying offers.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Celtics stay far enough below the tax apron, they could have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Bi-Annual Exception

July 8th, 2021 at 8:01am CST by Luke Adams

The most common tool that over-the-cap teams use to sign free agents from other teams is the mid-level exception, but that’s not the only exception those clubs have to squeeze an extra player onto the payroll. The bi-annual exception is a way for a team to sign a player who may command more than the minimum salary, but less than the mid-level.

As its name suggests, the bi-annual exception can only be used every other season. Even if a team uses only a portion of the exception, it’s off-limits during the following league year.

During the 2020/21 league year, four teams – the Mavericks, Pistons, Grizzlies, and Raptors – were ineligible to use the bi-annual exception at all, since they used it in 2019/20.

Three teams used the BAE in ’20/21, with the Bucks signing Bobby Portis, the Nuggets signing Facundo Campazzo, and the Lakers signing Wesley Matthews. Those three clubs won’t have the exception at their disposal during the 2021/22 league year.

The bi-annual exception is available only to a limited number of clubs, even among those that didn’t use the exception during the previous season. Teams that create and use cap space forfeit the BAE, along with all but the smallest version of the mid-level (the room exception). Additionally, teams lose access to the bi-annual exception when they go over the “tax apron,” a figure approximately $6MM+ above the tax line. So, only teams over the cap and under the tax apron can use the BAE.

If a team uses all or part of the bi-annual exception, the tax apron becomes the club’s hard cap for that season. Teams that sign a player using the BAE can later go under the cap, but can’t go over the tax apron at any time during the season once the contract is signed.

[RELATED: NBA Teams With Hard Caps In 2020/21]

The bi-annual exception allowed for a starting salary of up to $3,623,000 in 2020/21. The starting salary for the BAE in 2021/22 projects to be worth $3,732,000.

Under the NBA’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, the value of each season’s bi-annual exception was determined in advance. However, under the current CBA, the value of the BAE in future league years is tied to salary cap increases or decreases. If the cap goes up by 5%, the value of the bi-annual exception will also increase by 5%.

A player who signs a contract using the bi-annual exception is eligible for a one- or two-year deal, with a 5% raise for the second season. For players who signed using the BAE in 2020/21, the maximum value of a two-year contract was $7,427,150.

Teams also have the option of splitting the bi-annual exception among multiple players, though that happens much less frequently than it does with the mid-level exception, since a split bi-annual deal may not even be worth more than a veteran’s minimum salary.

In a typical league year, the bi-annual exception starts to prorate on January 10, decreasing in value by 1/177th each day until the end of the regular season. Those numbers looked a little different in 2020/21 due to the revamped schedule, but should return to normal for ’21/22.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

July 7th, 2021 at 10:31am CST by Luke Adams

The rebuilding Grizzlies, who traded longtime cornerstones Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in 2019, exceeded expectations in ’19/20. Rather than taking a step back with a younger roster, Memphis had its best season in three years, ultimately falling just short of a playoff spot in the Disney bubble by virtue of losing a play-in game to Portland.

Some regression was expected in 2020/21, but no one told Ja Morant and the Grizzlies. Despite dealing with some health issues – presumed second option Jaren Jackson Jr. was limited to just 11 games due to a knee injury – Memphis took another step forward, finishing the season with a 38-34 record in a tough Western Conference and then winning play-in games over San Antonio and Golden State to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

In theory, continued improvement from Morant, who turns 22 next month, and a full season of good health from Jackson should make the Grizzlies even more dangerous next season. But growth isn’t always linear, and it feels like Memphis probably needs to add some reinforcements to the current group to increase its ceiling. Fortunately, the team is in a pretty good position to do just that.

The Grizzlies’ Offseason Plan:

Of the 17 players who finished the season under contract in Memphis, 14 remain under contract for next season, and the team can increase that number to 15 by exercising its option on Justise Winslow. The only free agents are Tim Frazier and Killian Tillie, neither of whom was a major contributor in 2020/21.

That means the Grizzlies are well-positioned to run it back with the current group, perhaps just adding another young player with the No. 17 overall pick and signing one veteran free agent to fill out the roster.

While the club could certainly go in that direction, I’d expect Zack Kleiman and his front office to be a little more aggressive in pursuing upgrades. The Grizzlies are loaded at certain positions and don’t have any bad contracts on their books, meaning they’re in a good spot to explore trades that consolidate their depth and land them a starting-caliber player.

That doesn’t mean I expect the Grizzlies to be the frontrunner for a star like Damian Lillard or Bradley Beal should they become available (though Beal would be a great fit). Acquiring a player of that caliber would likely involve surrendering several first-round picks, and I’m not sure Memphis is ready to take that step, especially if the player in question isn’t a lock to stick around long-term.

However, the Grizzlies certainly have the ammo to go after a second- or third-tier trade candidate — Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, and/or Xavier Tillman, among others, could be included in an offer for such a player. And Memphis, which controls Utah’s 2022 first-round pick (top-six protected) and Golden State’s 2024 first-round selection (top-four protected), could afford to give up one or two first-rounders.

While none of their own key players are eligible for free agency, the Grizzlies’ decision on Winslow will be an interesting one. The team gave up a couple solid trade chips (Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder) and took on a pair of unfavorable contracts (Dion Waiters and Gorgui Dieng) at the 2020 trade deadline in order to acquire Winslow, but he hasn’t given them much so far, playing just 26 underwhelming games in Memphis since that trade.

If the Grizzlies still believe in Winslow, exercising his $13MM option makes sense. The team has no cap concerns to worry about, and if things don’t work out with Winslow, the downside is minimal, since he’ll come off the books in a year. Still, if Memphis’ faith in the former lottery pick is wavering, declining the option may be the right move — doing so would help create a chunk of cap room that could be used on a player more capable of making an impact in 2021/22.

The Grizzlies’ other important offseason decision will be on Jackson, who is eligible for a rookie scale extension. After a season essentially lost to injury, the club may want to see more from the former No. 4 overall pick before committing to a lucrative, long-term deal. But if he’s willing to accept a relatively team-friendly extension, it could be a good buy-low opportunity for Memphis before JJJ truly breaks out.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jontay Porter ($1,650,000) 1
  • Total: $1,650,000

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 17 overall pick ($3,053,760)
  • No. 51 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $3,053,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Grayson Allen (rookie scale)
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. (rookie scale)
  • Kyle Anderson (veteran)
  • Tyus Jones (veteran)
  • Jonas Valanciunas (veteran)
  • Justise Winslow (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If the Grizzlies waive Porter and keep their first-round pick, they’ll have about $88MM in commitments for 13 players. Ultimately then, their cap outlook figures to come down to their decision on Winslow.

Should Memphis pick up Winslow’s option, the team would still have a little cap room, but the difference between that space and the full mid-level exception for over-the-cap teams would be marginal, and the team may just decide to operate over the cap. Turning down Winslow’s option, on the other hand, could help the Grizzlies generate $24MM+ in cap space, making them a potential player for some of the top free agents in this year’s class.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Porter’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 18.
  2. The cap hold for Dorsey remains on the Grizzlies’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. It can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. This is a projected value. If the Grizzlies operate over the cap, they’d have the mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM) available.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Who Will Win NBA Finals MVP?

July 6th, 2021 at 6:09pm CST by Eli Cohen

The NBA Finals between the Bucks and Suns tip off tonight, and they’re surrounded by much uncertainty. The biggest question, of course, relates to the health of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who hyperextended his knee halfway through Game 4 of the Bucks’ series against the Hawks. The Bucks are being cagey with his injury — initially ruled as doubtful by the team, he has since been upgraded to questionable, with his status for Game 1 to be determined after pre-game warmups.

If Antetokounmpo is fully healthy, or even mostly healthy, he is a great bet to take him the coveted Bill Russell Award, which would make him the third player to have a Finals MVP, MVP, and Defensive Player of the Year award to his name, joining Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon.

If Antetokounmpo isn’t ready to go by the opening tip-off, though, things get much more interesting.

The Bucks managed to get contributions from multiple sources in Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Finals. In Game 5, Brook Lopez led the way with 33 points, going back to his Nets days as a low-post offensive hub despite the defensive presence of Hawks’ center Clint Capela.

In Game 6, though, Lopez was unable to keep up the pace, providing 13 points on nine shots. It seems unlikely Lopez would be able to maintain his Game 5 level of offensive production over a full series, especially while battling with defensive anchor Deandre Ayton. If Ayton gets in foul trouble, however, Lopez could have an easier path, as the one weakness on the Suns’ roster is their lack of a back-up center.

Meanwhile, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday both exploded in the last two games against the Hawks. Holiday averaged 26 PPG and 11 APG over the final two contests while Middleton averaged 29 PPG and 7.5 APG. The Hawks had no match for either player, though the Suns have far more wing and guard defenders to throw at them than the Hawks did.

As for the Suns, their big three of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Ayton have been rolling all playoffs long. While detractors have pointed to the injuries of their opponents, the Suns’ ability to close out series – especially for a relatively inexperienced team – has been extremely impressive.

Ayton has been a force on both ends, averaging 17.8 PPG, 13.7 RPG and 1.7 BPG in his first Western Conference Finals. Booker, hounded all series long by the likes of Patrick Beverley and Paul George, was able to put the team on his back as a scorer time after time. And Paul is coming off possibly the performance of his career: a 41-point, eight-assist, zero-turnover game to eliminate his former team, the Clippers, and advance to the first NBA Finals of his 16-season career.

It seems unlikely that Ayton will be named Finals MVP in the case of a Suns championship, barring an unexpected offensive explosion, but both Paul and Booker are prime candidates for the award.

In fact, according to DraftKings.com, Booker and Paul have the two highest odds for coming away with the Finals MVP, with Paul having a slight edge on Booker. Middleton and Antetokounmpo are tied for third, but Giannis’ odds are sure to change if news breaks that he will, in fact, return in time to play in Game 1 of the Finals.

So here’s our question of the day:

Who do you expect to be named Finals MVP?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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