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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

July 14th, 2021 at 11:50am CST by Luke Adams

No NBA team outperformed its preseason expectations more significantly in the 2020/21 season than the Knicks, who were projected by oddsmakers to be in the mix for the league’s worst record. Instead, New York, buoyed by a Julius Randle breakout year and the influence of new head coach Tom Thibodeau, claimed a top-four seed in the East by finishing with a 41-31 record.

The Knicks’ first-round series vs. Atlanta exposed some of the deficiencies that the team was able to mask during the regular season, and Thibodeau’s club made a quick postseason exit, losing to the Hawks in five games. But it was still a massively successful year for a franchise that hadn’t made the playoffs or even finished above .500 since 2013.

While some regression should perhaps be expected in 2021/22, the Knicks are well-positioned to avoid taking a step backward by adding reinforcements to their core group, which includes Randle and rising forward RJ Barrett. New York will have more cap space than any other NBA team and has extra first-round picks both this year and in the future, making the club a threat to be a player in free agency or on the trade market.

The Knicks are still a ways off from title contention, but for the first time in years, there are legitimate reasons to be optimistic about the team’s future.

The Knicks’ Offseason Plan:

Although the Knicks are in a good spot to add outside help to their roster, many of their most important decisions will be made on their own players.

Randle, for instance, was once considered a candidate to be waived before his full 2021/22 salary became guaranteed. That’s no longer a realistic outcome. Instead, the Knicks will have to decide whether to offer him an extension that could have a base value worth up to $106MM+ over four years (plus incentives) and Randle will have to decide whether to accept it.

If New York believes Randle’s improvements – particularly his three-point percentage – are sustainable, offering that extension certainly makes sense for the team. Of course, if Randle believes the same thing, he’d be justified in turning down such an offer in the hopes of securing a more lucrative contract as a free agent in 2022.

Randle’s future will in turn impact that of 2020 lottery pick Obi Toppin, who had an underwhelming rookie year, in large part because he wasn’t a great fit in lineups that featured Barrett and Randle. If the Knicks are committed to Randle long-term, Toppin could become a trade chip.

The Knicks also face an important decision on Mitchell Robinson, who has a non-guaranteed minimum salary for 2021/22. Typically, guaranteeing that salary and perhaps exploring a contract extension would be the obvious move for the club. But if Robinson reaches free agency in 2022, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. If New York turns down his team option, he’d be a restricted free agent this summer, giving the team more control in locking him up going forward.

The Knicks will have to determine whether Robinson, who was limited to 31 games this season due to a right foot injury, is a crucial part of their future. If he is, they’ll have to figure out what the best approach is for making sure he’s around for the long haul.

Finally, the Knicks face decisions on several veteran free agents, including key role players like Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, and Reggie Bullock. All of those vets could be in line for raises after strong seasons in New York, so the team will have to weigh which of its free agents are worth more substantial investments and which should be cut loose in search of a better bargain.

We haven’t even gotten yet to the upgrades the Knicks may pursue outside of the organization, but their options should be plentiful. In recent years, the organization has been unable to attract top free agents to New York due to the club’s poor play and questionable leadership. But the Knicks’ 2020/21 success and the stability that Thibodeau and president of basketball operations Leon Rose have brought to the franchise have helped boost the team’s appeal.

That doesn’t mean the Knicks will be able to go out and add Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul, but it does mean that free agency could be a more viable path to adding an impact player than it has been in recent years. That’s especially true given New York’s financial flexibility — if the team wants to outbid rival suitors for a veteran free agent such as Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, or Spencer Dinwiddie, it has the ability to do so.

That cap flexibility will also help grease the wheels for potential trades. For example, while I don’t view Collin Sexton as a perfect fit in New York, there are rumors that the team has been the most aggressive trade suitor for him so far. The Knicks’ financial flexibility could allow them to take on Kevin Love‘s oversized contract as part of a Sexton deal, or to comfortably negotiate a long-term extension for the high-scoring guard. Again, I’m not sure either of those moves is in New York’s best interest, but those are the kinds of possibilities that cap space helps create.

Of course, in their first year with substantial cap room available in 2020, Rose and the Knicks’ front office took a more conservative approach, prioritizing short-term, team-friendly deals for undervalued players like Burks and Noel.

It’s possible the team could go that route again if there are no favorable opportunities to take a bigger swing. But after the Knicks’ success in 2020/21, I imagine the front office will feel a little more pressure – including perhaps from Thibodeau – to add the types of players who can help the club take another step forward in ’21/22.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall pick ($2,770,560)
  • No. 21 overall pick ($2,553,120)
  • No. 32 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 58 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total: $5,323,680

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kevin Knox (rookie scale)
  • Julius Randle (veteran)
  • Mitchell Robinson (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Locking in Randle’s salary would result in about $50MM in guaranteed salaries for five roster spots. From there, the Knicks could go a number of ways in filling out their roster.

If we assume the team picks up Robinson’s option and keeps its two first-round picks while waiving or renouncing everyone else, that’d result in nearly $52MM in cap space. Adding Rose’s cap hold would bring that cap room projection down to $42.5MM; adding Noel’s cap hold would reduce it to about $37.5MM, and so on. Trading one or both of their first-round picks could slightly increase the team’s space.

Essentially, even if the Knicks do want to try to bring back two or three of their free agents, they’ll be able to generate enough cap room for a maximum-salary contract or close to it. It’s a safe bet they’ll operate under the cap this offseason rather than over it.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,910,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Randle’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 31.
  2. Robinson will be eligible for restricted free agency if his option is declined.
  3. This is a projected value.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: Antetokounmpo’s Finals Run

July 13th, 2021 at 7:37pm CST by Eli Cohen

When Giannis Antetokounmpo went down with a hyperextended knee in Game 4 of the Bucks‘ Eastern Conference Finals series against the Hawks, it was unclear what it would mean for the his chances at playing in the NBA Finals. His medical status was up in the air until just moments before tip-off in Game 1 against the Suns, but he ultimately was able to suit up.

Even with the Bucks losing the opening game and getting a relatively pedestrian 20-point performance from the two-time MVP, it was clear that Giannis was back. From his 17 rebounds to his work in the post, he found his footing after some early hesitancy.

Antetokounmpo’s following two games were nothing short of spectacular. The Greek Freak joined Shaquille O’Neal as the only two players in Finals history to post back-to-back 40-point, 10-rebound games as the Bucks split Games 2 and 3 with the Suns.

With Game 4 looming on Wednesday on the Bucks’ home court, Antetokounmpo currently has the 12th-highest scoring rate in NBA Finals history at 34.3 PPG, the fifth-highest rebound rate at 14 RPG, and the third-highest free throw rate at 15.7 FTA. Only two points per game separate Antetokounmpo’s scoring rate with the sixth-highest output in Finals history, O’Neal’s 36.3 PPG in the 2000 Finals.

Antetokounmpo’s co-stars, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, have struggled to contribute at the highest level all series, though Holiday managed to free himself for 21 points in Game 3. If those two players continue to struggle, the Bucks will need Antetokounmpo to continue his Herculean efforts if they want any chance to bring home the coveted Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.

If the Bucks are to complete the comeback from a 2-0 deficit for the second time this postseason, it will likely be on the back of an all-time, legacy-making Finals performance from Antetokounmpo.

Which leads to the question of the day: Can Antetokounmpo enshrine his name in the pantheon of the all-time Finals performances? Can he lead the Bucks to their first championship since 1971?

Head to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Dallas Mavericks

July 13th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Mavericks acquired Kristaps Porzingis from New York in 2019, they envisioned him as half of a superstar duo alongside Luka Doncic for the next decade. But Porzingis, who flashed star potential in his early years with the Knicks, has plateaued in recent years as ongoing injury problems and his lack of defensive versatility have limited his ability to make a huge on-court impact.

Without a reliable go-to second option in the playoffs – where Porzingis averaged just 13.1 PPG and 5.4 RPG – the Mavs have been unable to break through so far, despite Doncic giving the Clippers all they could handle in the first round for two straight years (including 35.7 PPG and 10.3 APG in Dallas’ seven-game series loss this spring).

Strengthening the supporting cast around Doncic will be the primary goal going forward for the new-look front office, which includes longtime Nike executive Nico Harrison as Dallas’ new general manager. Harrison stepped in following the departure of veteran executive Donnie Nelson.

Meanwhile, it’ll be up to new head coach Jason Kidd to get the most of out the Mavs’ roster. Kidd’s two previous stints running the show in Brooklyn and Milwaukee were up and down, and he’ll have big shoes to fill in replacing Rick Carlisle, who was the NBA’s third longest-tenured head coach. But there’s optimism that Kidd has learned from past mistakes and – as a Hall-of-Fame point guard himself – will be a good mentor for Doncic.

The Mavericks’ Offseason Plan:

The 2021/22 season will likely be the last time for the next 10 or 15 years that Doncic is earning less than the maximum salary, so it would be a good time for the Mavericks to take advantage of their financial flexibility. Besides Porzingis, no one on the roster is currently on the books for more than about $11MM next season.

Unfortunately, the Porzingis contract is an issue. He’ll earn $31.65MM in ’21/22 and a total of $101.5MM over the next three seasons, and he hasn’t lived up to that salary so far. Trading him is an option, but the Mavs will be loath to sell low on the 25-year-old rather than hoping for better injury luck going forward, which might allow Porzingis to rebuild his value.

The contract situations of Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway Jr. will also compromise the Mavs’ offseason flexibility. Richardson had a somewhat underwhelming first year in Dallas and now seems like a good bet to pick up his $11.6MM player option, cutting into the team’s potential cap room. And if the Mavs want to re-sign Hardaway, an unrestricted free agent, they may end up without any cap room at all, instead operating over the cap and gaining access to the full mid-level exception.

Even if the Mavs, who have traded away both of their 2021 draft picks, can add a solid rotation player with the MLE, they likely won’t be satisfied with simply running back a similar group next season, so I’d expect them to be active on the trade market. Even if a favorable Porzingis deal doesn’t materialize, other veterans – including Dwight Powell and Trey Burke – could be shopped.

Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson are terrific bargains for the time being, but are entering contract years and will get more expensive in 2022. If Dallas isn’t able to lock them up to team-friendly extensions this year and isn’t confident in its ability to re-sign them to reasonable deals in unrestricted free agency, the idea of trading them should at least be considered.

The Mavs will also have to reassess 2020 draftees Josh Green and Tyrell Terry, neither of whom had a great rookie season. Their value has dropped, so they may not be especially useful trade chips, in which case Dallas will have to focus on developing them into useful role players.

Perhaps the simplest move of the Mavs’ offseason will be signing Doncic to a maximum-salary rookie scale extension that projects to pay him north of $200MM over five seasons. Ideally, Dallas would avoid adding a fifth-year player option to that deal, but if Doncic insists on it, the club will have to relent.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Luka Doncic (rookie scale)
  • Jalen Brunson (veteran)
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (veteran)
  • Maxi Kleber (veteran)
  • Dwight Powell (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume Brunson is retained (a safe bet) and Richardson opts in, that increases the Mavs’ guarantees to nearly $87MM for 10 roster spots. Letting everyone else walk would leave Dallas with upwards of $24MM in cap room.

However, if Hardaway re-signs at a number in the neighborhood of his previous salary ($18.98MM), that cap space essentially goes away, and Dallas will be operating over the cap. The team’s outlook could change if it adds or subtracts salary in trades or if Hardaway wants to play elsewhere. For now though, my working assumption is that the team will try to re-sign the free agent wing and will use its full mid-level rather than dipping under the cap.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
  • Trade exception: $1,678,854

Footnotes

  1. Brunson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 2.
  2. Melli has reached a contract agreement with Italian team Olimpia Milano. The Mavericks could still make the procedural move of tendering him a qualifying offer if they want to retain matching rights in the event of his return to the NBA.
  3. These are projected values. If the Mavericks decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and their trade exception and would instead gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: U.S. Olympic Team

July 13th, 2021 at 8:13am CST by Luke Adams

After losing their first exhibition game to Nigeria on Saturday, the U.S. men’s basketball team dropped its second pre-Olympics tune-up to Australia on Monday, falling 91-83 to the Boomers. Team USA has now lost four of its last five international contests with NBA players on the roster, dating back to the 2019 FIBA World Cup.

As Joe Vardon of The Athletic writes, conditioning has been an issue for the USA team so far, as has rebounding — the roster is fairly undersized, especially with bigs like Bam Adebayo and Kevin Love playing sparingly.

Reinforcements will be coming for Tokyo, with three players who are participating in the NBA Finals – Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton – set to join the Olympic roster once the NBA season ends.

But it’s becoming increasingly clear that the gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world isn’t as significant as it once was, especially when the NBA veterans representing other international programs – including Australia – have spent so much more time playing together.

“We’re not just going to come out here, roll the ball out and beat these teams,” U.S. point guard Damian Lillard said after Monday’s loss. “We’ve got to play the right way, compete, and we’ve got to come out here to win and do everything to give ourselves our best chance to win. If we don’t, we can be beat.”

While Team USA will still be the overwhelming favorite to win the gold medal in Tokyo next month, the squad’s first two exhibition games have been a reminder that bringing home the gold isn’t a given.

France and the Czech Republic could give the U.S. some trouble in the round-robin group stage of the Olympic tournament, while Australia, Spain, Nigeria, and Slovenia (featuring Luka Doncic) are among the teams that could be threats to pull off an upset in the medal round.

We want to know what you think. Do you still expect the U.S. to win gold? Have these exhibition losses caused your confidence to waver? Do you believe there are flaws in the way the roster was constructed that could be exposed at the Olympics?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

July 12th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After an injury-plagued 2019/20 season in which they barely sneaked into the Western Conference playoffs, the Trail Blazers entered the ’20/21 campaign with loftier goals. Portland added Robert Covington and Derrick Jones on the wing and was counting on the frontcourt duo of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins to get healthy and help complement the team’s star backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

However, injuries continued to be a problem for Nurkic, who missed half the season, and for Collins, who missed the entire year. And while Covington meshed well with the current core, Jones didn’t have the impact the Blazers had hoped for, falling out of the rotation in the second half.

President of basketball operations Neil Olshey added some midseason reinforcements by acquiring Norman Powell from Toronto, but it wasn’t enough to make a serious playoff run. Portland was eliminated from the postseason in the first round by a shorthanded Nuggets squad, spelling the end of Terry Stotts‘ tenure as the club’s head coach.

The offseason has gotten off to a shaky start in Portland. There are questions about whether Lillard’s loyalty to the franchise might start wavering after what he called the most frustrating season of his career, and the Blazers came under fire for hiring Chauncey Billups as their new head coach in light of the sexual assault allegations he faced in 1997.

The Blazers said they investigated the incident and came away confident that Billups hadn’t engaged in any wrongdoing, but their caginess and lack of transparency left many fans with a bad taste. Olshey and Billups may have some work to do to ensure that both Lillard and those fans feel comfortable moving forward with the franchise.

The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan:

The Blazers will be capped out even before attempting to re-sign Powell, all but eliminating free agency as a viable path for pursuing roster upgrades. The team also doesn’t have either of its 2021 draft picks, having traded away its first-rounder last year for Covington and its second-rounder two years ago for Rodney Hood.

That leaves the trade market as Olshey’s best bet for reshaping the roster.

Lillard is, of course, Portland’s best trade chip, but the team won’t move the All-NBA point guard unless he expresses a desire to leave. Lillard has long been loyal to the Blazers and still has four years left on his contract, so I wouldn’t expect him to force his way out this summer — it’s not impossible, but I imagine he’ll want to at least see what Billups brings to the team before making any major decisions.

If Lillard is off the table, that leaves McCollum and Nurkic as two potential major trade chips for the Blazers. Olshey has long insisted he doesn’t want to break up Portland’s high-scoring backcourt duo, but trading McCollum for an impact forward or big man would certainly help balance the roster. It’s unclear how high McCollum’s value will be on the trade market though, since he has $100MM left on his contract and will be entering his age-30 season.

Nurkic, meanwhile, has played solid two-way basketball in the middle in the past, but leg injuries have limited his effectiveness. The veteran center also dropped hints at the end of the season that he didn’t necessarily envision a long-term future for himself in Portland. While his value isn’t as high as it would’ve been two years ago, his $12MM expiring salary would certainly be movable. He’d even have positive value if he’s back to full health.

No other players on the Blazers’ roster should be untouchable, though Covington is on a team-friendly deal and the club may still be high on young players like Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little, despite their up-and-down development.

In free agency, re-signing Powell should be a priority, especially if the Blazers make a trade involving McCollum. Portland gave up a productive and controllable rotation player in Gary Trent Jr. to acquire Powell and won’t want to lose him for nothing.

Collins once looked like a long-term keeper, but he has undergone three surgeries on his foot in the last year. It’s possible he’ll be back, but it would have to be at a bargain rate. Portland may not even tender him a qualifying offer.

Role players like Carmelo Anthony and Enes Kanter will also be free agents and seem to enjoy playing for the Blazers. If Lillard remains in Portland, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them stick around too.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jusuf Nurkic ($8,000,000) 2
  • Total: $1,824,003

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Anfernee Simons (rookie scale)
  • Robert Covington (veteran)
  • Jusuf Nurkic (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

It’s a safe bet that the Blazers will guarantee Nurkic’s salary for 2021/22, and Jones seems likely to opt in. Those moves would bring Portland’s total guaranteed commitments to about $115.5MM for eight players, pushing team salary over the cap. If they re-sign Powell, the Blazers may find themselves in luxury tax territory again next season.

For now, we’re assuming Portland will have its full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception available, but that could change if team salary creeps into the $130-135MM range (or higher).

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 7
  • Trade exception: $1,737,145
  • Trade exception: $1,663,861
  • Trade exception: $661,655

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Lillard’s salary will be 35% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Nurkic’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 3.
  3. Powell’s decision is reportedly due by July 22.
  4. Jones’ decision is reportedly due by July 28.
  5. Because he’ll have four years of NBA service, Leaf is ineligible to sign another two-way contract.
  6. The cap hold for Swanigan remains on the Trail Blazers’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal. The Blazers also can’t offer Swanigan a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his rookie scale team option for 2020/21 was declined.
  7. These are projected values. If the Trail Blazers approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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Following Specific Players On Hoops Rumors

July 12th, 2021 at 3:13pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors makes it easy to keep up with your favorite NBA teams as they plot their next moves, and we also provide multiple ways to follow the latest updates on all of your favorite players, including the top free agents and trade candidates from around the league.

You can get news about players wherever you go with our Trade Rumors app, available for iOS and Android devices. The app, which is free, allows you to add a feed for any player and set up notifications that will alert you whenever we write about him. It’s the easiest way to keep tabs on specific players.

If you’re using the desktop or mobile version of our site, there are other ways to follow your favorite player(s). Every player we’ve written about has his own rumors page. You can find any player by using our search box, by clicking his tag at the bottom of a post in which he’s discussed, or by simply typing his name in your address bar after hoopsrumors.com, substituting dashes for spaces.

For example, LeBron James‘ page is hoopsrumors.com/lebron-james. Those player pages can be added to RSS readers too.

In addition to players, there are a number of other subjects you can track by clicking on the tags that we use at the bottom of posts or by searching for them in the app.

For instance, you can keep tabs on our 2021 NBA draft stories right here. Items about the NBA G League can be found on this page. Olympics-related stories about the Tokyo games are all here. And you can simply scan our top stories here.

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Checking In On NBA’s Offseason Coaching Changes

July 12th, 2021 at 12:40pm CST by Luke Adams

With the NBA draft just two-and-a-half weeks away, a pair of teams are still without a head coach.

The Wizards, who opted not to bring back Scott Brooks after he spent five years at the helm in D.C., were said to be conducting second interviews with finalists last week, meaning they should be close to making a decision. Wes Unseld Jr., Darvin Ham, and Charles Lee are among the team’s remaining candidates.

The other team with a vacancy is New Orleans. Having parted ways with Stan Van Gundy after just one season, the Pelicans are seeking a head coach who can better connect with their young players, including star forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Lee, a finalist for the Washington job, is also still in the mix for the Pelicans’ position too, with Willie Green and Fred Vinson among the other candidates receiving serious consideration.

Five other teams made coaching changes since the regular season ended. The details on those completed searches are as follows:

  • Boston Celtics: Hired Ime Udoka to replace Brad Stevens (transitioned to front office role).
  • Dallas Mavericks: Hired Jason Kidd to replace Rick Carlisle.
  • Indiana Pacers: Hired Rick Carlisle to replace Nate Bjorkgren.
  • Orlando Magic: Hired Jamahl Mosley to replace Steve Clifford.
  • Portland Trail Blazers: Hired Chauncey Billups to replace Terry Stotts.

Technically, the Hawks also named a new permanent head coach this offseason, since Nate McMillan only held the interim role up until last week. However, his promotion was long expected, and Atlanta didn’t conduct any sort of search before announcing that McMillan would keep the job.

We’ve been keeping an eye on the Bucks‘ situation throughout the postseason, since there was a sense Mike Budenholzer‘s job would be in danger if Milwaukee failed to make a deep playoff run. It’s possible Budenholzer could still be replaced if the Bucks lose the next two games in embarrassing fashion, but the team is currently three games away from a title, so it’s safe to assume the head coach’s seat isn’t nearly as hot as it was a month ago.

The rest of the NBA’s teams have had plenty of time to make a coaching change if they felt the need to do so. It’s not out of the question that one more summer surprise could be on the way (maybe Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich abruptly retiring after winning Olympic gold with Team USA?), but the odds are against it. At this point, we’re assuming the other 21 teams are happy with their current coaches and won’t be making changes prior to the start of the 2021/22 season.

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Community Shootaround: Expansion

July 9th, 2021 at 8:29pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The NHL’s expansion draft for its newest franchise, the Seattle Kraken, will be held in less than two weeks. It comes just four years after Las Vegas was added to the league.

The other major winter sports league doesn’t seem to be in any rush to add new franchises, however. Commissioner Adam Silver was asked about the possibility of increasing the league’s 30-team membership this week. He made it clear that it’s not near the top of his priority list.

“The most important considerations for us when we look at expansion is, will it ultimately grow the pie? Meaning, it’s potentially 30 more jobs if you expand with two teams,” Silver said. “You expand the league’s footprint. How does that help us in varying ways, sort of increased support nationally. So we’ll continue to look at it. I mean, I’ve said this many times before, we’re certainly not suggesting we’re locked at 30 teams. I think at some point it will make sense to expand, but it’s just not at the top of the agenda right now.”

Seattle, which lost its franchise to Oklahoma City, has long been considered the most likely city to get the next franchise. Las Vegas is also a strong contender, but there are plenty of other options.

Domestically, Kansas City, Louisville, San Diego, Nashville, Tampa and Pittsburgh have been mentioned to varying degrees; the league could also look at major international cities such as London, Vancouver, Montreal and Mexico City.

The Players Association would likely endorse expansion, since it would create more opportunities for players to wear an NBA uniform.

That leads us to our question of the day: Should the NBA seriously consider expansion in the near future? If so, which cities are most deserving of a franchise?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

July 9th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Just about everything went right for the Heat during the summer restart in the Walt Disney World bubble last summer. Having entered the playoffs as a No. 5 seed in the East, Miami won three consecutive series as the road team, then came within two wins of a championship before falling to the Lakers.

The Heat brought back a pretty similar roster in 2020/21, aiming to finish higher in the standings and make another deep playoff run. But health issues limited the team’s ability to build much momentum during the regular season, and the departures of some key role players (such as Jae Crowder) – along with underwhelming or nonexistent contributions from new additions (including Victor Oladipo) – were major factors in Miami’s lack of postseason success.

With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo locked up for multiple seasons, the Heat have a solid All-Star duo to build around, but president of basketball operations Pat Riley may consider making significant roster changes around that duo after Miami became the only one of this year’s 16 playoff teams not to win a single game in the postseason.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan:

The Heat enter the offseason with only five players under contract: Butler, Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and KZ Okpala. That gives the team some flexibility to go in multiple directions.

A year ago, the Heat had the ability to create some cap room, but instead chose to re-sign several of their own free agents, operate over the cap, and use the mid-level exception to try to add a role player or two. It’s possible Miami will go that route again this summer.

The team options for Goran Dragic ($19MM+) and Andre Iguodala ($15MM) may be a little higher than the club would like, but both players could be re-signed even if their options are declined, and Miami would have the ability to bring back some combination of Oladipo, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Trevor Ariza, and Nemanja Bjelica too. Dewayne Dedmon could also be re-signed, though the Heat would have to use an exception to do so if he’s seeking more than the minimum, since he’ll only have Non-Bird rights.

On the other hand, if the Heat aren’t convinced that running it back again is a good play, they could let most of those free agents walk and try their luck on the open market — they’d have $20MM+ in cap room even if they retained the modest cap holds for Nunn and Robinson (they could go over the cap to re-sign those two RFAs after using their cap space).

Still, considering this year’s free agent class is somewhat underwhelming and $20MM likely wouldn’t get them a star-caliber player, I’d expect the Heat to operate over the cap and try to land an impact player on the trade market.

Exercising Dragic’s or Iguodala’s team option would give the Heat a sizeable expiring contract to use for salary-matching (they could pick up both options if needed), and while their ability to trade future first-round picks is somewhat limited, they have valuable young players – such as Herro and Achiuwa – who could be dangled as trade chips.

One potential target to keep an eye on is Kyle Lowry, who is close friends with Butler. The Heat pursued Lowry at the March trade deadline, but were reportedly unwilling to part with Herro to make a deal happen. The Heat could theoretically clear enough cap room to make him a strong offer, so if Lowry wants to team up with Butler, the Raptors’ leverage in sign-and-trade talks would decrease. That would allow Miami to negotiate more favorable trade terms and hang onto Herro, possibly for another trade down the road.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Jimmy Butler (veteran)
  • KZ Okpala (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

As noted above, the Heat could create over $20MM+ in cap room by declining all their team options and renouncing all their free agents except Nunn and Robinson. Renouncing Nunn and Robinson would get the team up to $28MM+ in cap space.

But unless there’s an extremely compelling reason to clear that space, I don’t see Miami giving up its rights to so many useful players. The bet here is that the Heat operate as an over-the-cap team and bring back a few of their own free agents.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 5

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Adebayo’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Yurtseven’s salary will remain non-guaranteed even if his option is exercised.
  3. Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Heat for two seasons, Vincent is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
  4. The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values. If the Heat approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions and instead gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM). If they decided to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

July 8th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Having made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2017, 2018, and 2020, the Celtics entered the 2020/21 season looking to make it at least that far again. But things never quite gelled for this year’s iteration of the C’s, as injuries, COVID-19 issues, and inconsistent on-court production were all major factors in a disappointing year.

The Celtics still made the playoffs, but it took a play-in win to get there after the team finished with an underwhelming .500 record (36-36). And Boston’s postseason run was short-lived, as the club was unceremoniously dispatched by Brooklyn in the first round.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown still look like capable cornerstones on a future title contender, but the Celtics will need to find a way to surround them with more reliable complementary pieces. That task will fall to Brad Stevens, who made the move from the sidelines to the front office after longtime president of basketball operations Danny Ainge stepped down.

In his first month on the job, Stevens wasted no time in completing a pair of major moves, hiring Ime Udoka to replace him as Boston’s head coach and sending Kemba Walker and a first-round pick to Oklahoma City for Al Horford and Moses Brown in a trade that will create some added financial flexibility for the franchise over the next two seasons.

The Celtics’ Offseason Plan:

Moving Walker’s oversized contract should help the Celtics avoid a significant tax bill in 2021/22, but replacing him with Horford doesn’t really move the needle for the team on the court. More roster moves will be necessary to make Boston a legitimate contender.

Besides the contracts for Tatum, Brown, and Marcus Smart, all of which are good values, the Celtics’ guaranteed salaries fall into two groups: veteran big men who are probably overpaid (Horford and Tristan Thompson, earning a combined $37MM), and inexpensive role players still on their rookie deals (Romeo Langford, Robert Williams, Aaron Nesmith, Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard, and Carsen Edwards).

If the Celtics hope to increase their ceiling, they’ll need to either cobble together a reliable rotation from those pieces or use them to trade for rotation players. It may be time to start moving on from some of those former first-round picks who haven’t developed like the team has hoped. Two or three of those players could be keepers – Pritchard had an especially promising rookie season – but Boston should be willing to deal several of the others — having not drafted them himself, Stevens may not feel as attached to them as Ainge did.

Meanwhile, Horford’s contract is only partially guaranteed beyond this season and Thompson’s deal is expiring, so both players are movable, even if they don’t have positive value. The Celtics also have a handful of trade exceptions that could be useful, including one worth $11MM.

In free agency, figuring out a new deal with Evan Fournier figures to be a top priority. If you take into account the two second-round picks the Celtics sent the Hornets last offseason to generate the massive trade exception later used to take on Fournier, the cost to acquire him essentially worked out to four second-rounders. The organization won’t want to let him walk for nothing after paying that price.

The Celtics also figure to discuss contract extensions with Smart and Robert Williams, both of whom are entering the final year of their contracts. Smart, who should have a bigger role with Walker gone, may have more leverage to negotiate a lucrative new deal than Williams, who could find himself battling for minutes in a crowded frontcourt. Of course, if Stevens wants to take another big swing on the trade market for a point guard, Smart may have to be included in Boston’s offer.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jabari Parker ($2,283,034) 2
  • Moses Brown ($1,201,593)
  • Total: $3,484,627

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Robert Williams (rookie scale)
  • Carsen Edwards (veteran)
  • Al Horford (veteran)
  • Marcus Smart (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Celtics will certainly be over the cap this summer. Whether or not they go over the luxury tax line depends on whether Fournier returns and whether the team cuts costs in trades. If we assume Fournier re-signs at a reasonable rate (perhaps $15MM), Boston would need to shed some salary elsewhere to stay out of the tax.

Without Fournier, the Celtics may have enough breathing room to use the entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception. But my bet for now is that Fournier will be back and that the team will be limited to the taxpayer MLE.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,890,000 4
  • Trade exception: $11,050,000
  • Trade exception: $6,879,100
  • Trade exception: $5,000,000
  • Trade exception: $4,767,000
  • Trade exception: $370,564
  • Trade exception: $343,873

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Tatum’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
  2. Parker’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($100K) after July 31.
  3. Because they have been on two-way contracts with the Celtics for two seasons, Fall and Waters are eligible for standard minimum-salary qualifying offers.
  4. This is a projected value. If the Celtics stay far enough below the tax apron, they could have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.5MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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