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Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference First-Round Series

May 25th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

As we discussed on Monday, the postseason is off to a fascinating start in the Western Conference, where the underdogs in all four series won Game One. The results in the Eastern Conference haven’t been quite as surprising so far.

The No. 1 Sixers and No. 2 Nets took care of the Wizards and Celtics in their respective Game Ones. Although Washington and Boston were competitive, the star power of the higher seeds may be too much for the two play-in teams — Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris racked up a combined 67 points for Philadelphia on Sunday, while Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden scored 82 of Brooklyn’s 104 points on Saturday.

Meanwhile, after upsetting the Bucks in last year’s second round, the Heat have dug themselves a 2-0 hole in this year’s first round, and Monday’s loss was especially one-sided. Milwaukee poured in 46 first-quarter points and 22 total three-pointers en route to a blowout victory.

Based on what we’ve seen so far, the most exciting Eastern Conference series in the first round should be the one featuring two teams that have spent the last few years out of the postseason. The Knicks and Hawks went down to the wire on Sunday, with Trae Young clinching an Atlanta victory by hitting a floater with less than a second left in regulation.

The Celtics, Wizards, and Heat still have plenty of time to turn things around, but oddsmakers view it as a long shot that any of these three clubs will pull off a comeback. BetOnline.ag currently lists the Nets as -2750 favorites, meaning that if you want to bet on Brooklyn to win the series, you’d have to risk $2,750 in order to win just $100. The Sixers (-1800) and Bucks (-1000) are also heavy favorites.

The Hawks’ Game 1 upset has made them the frontrunners over the Knicks, but Vegas still views that series as practically a toss-up compared to the other three — Atlanta is only a -255 favorite.

We want to know what you think. Will the East’s top three seeds hold on and win their respective series with relative ease, or will the Celtics, Wizards, and/or Heat come alive and make things interesting? Do you expect a long series between the Hawks and Knicks? Who are you picking to win that one?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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NBA Team Option Decisions For 2021/22

May 25th, 2021 at 9:36am CST by Luke Adams

Having already created a space to track this offseason’s player option decisions, we’re turning our attention today to team options. Over the next couple months, we’ll use the space below to keep tabs on all the team options for 2021/22, making note of whether they’re picked up or declined.

True team options are somewhat rare in the NBA, since clubs often prefer to include a non-guaranteed year or two in player contracts. Non-guaranteed salaries are less restrictive and provide a little more flexibility than team options, which clubs must act upon by a specific date each year. Typically, that deadline falls in late June, but this year it will be August 1.

Still, team options can be useful at the end of a contract, since turning down that option allows the team to retain some form of Bird rights on the player — waiving a player with a non-guaranteed salary doesn’t present that same opportunity. Additionally, a handful of contracts still don’t become fully guaranteed once an option is picked up, giving teams an extra level of flexibility.

The list below doesn’t include rookie scale team options for 2021/22, since those third- and fourth-year options function differently than team options on standard veteran contracts. Those ’21/22 rookie scale team option decisions were made during the 2020 offseason, and can be found here.

The standard team options for 2021/22 are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the fall to note the latest decisions.

Chicago Bulls

Dallas Mavericks

Houston Rockets

Indiana Pacers

Memphis Grizzlies

Miami Heat

New Orleans Pelicans

New York Knicks

San Antonio Spurs

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Western Conference First-Round Series

May 24th, 2021 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

In both 2019 and 2020, the top four seeds in the Western Conference advanced to the second round of the playoffs. However, things are looking a whole lot more wide open early in the first round of the 2021 postseason.

Over the weekend, three of the four lower-seeded teams in the Western Conference playoff matchups won Game 1. The one lower seed that didn’t come away with a win? The No. 7 Lakers, who were favored by oddsmakers over the No. 2 Suns coming into the series.

Despite their seventh seed, the defending-champion Lakers have been widely viewed as one of the favorites to come out of the West now that they’re healthy again, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis back in the lineup. But L.A.’s two leading scorers combined for just 31 points on 11-of-29 shooting in Game 1 against a tough Phoenix team that led almost all night despite a subpar performance from veteran leader Chris Paul.

Later on Sunday, the No. 8 Grizzlies pulled out an upset victory over the No. 1 Jazz, taking advantage of Donovan Mitchell‘s absence and Rudy Gobert‘s foul trouble (he played just 25 minutes before fouling out), as Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks racked up a combined 57 points and helped Memphis hold off a late push from Utah.

On Saturday, the fifth-seeded Mavericks and sixth-seeded Trail Blazers knocked off the Clippers and Nuggets, respectively. A pair of All-NBA guards played key roles in those victories — Luka Doncic scored a game-high 31 points and was a game-best plus-19 in Los Angeles, while Damian Lillard pulled off a similar feat in Denver (34 points, plus-25).

It’s not uncommon for an underdog to win the first game of a series and fail to take advantage of that momentum. In fact, each of the last two NBA champions (the Lakers in 2020 and the Raptors in 2019) lost the first game of their respective first-round series, then won the next four en route to a deep playoff run.

To that point, the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag still consider the Jazz and Clippers favorites over the Grizzlies and Mavericks, and give the Lakers near-even odds to win their first-round series over the Suns. Confidence in the Nuggets is dwindling though — the Trail Blazers have been made solid favorites in that series.

We want to know what you think. Will multiple lower-seeded teams win their first-round matchups? Which four Western Conference teams do you expect to see in the second round?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

May 21st, 2021 at 7:37pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Southwest Division:

DeMar DeRozan, Spurs, 31, SG/SF (Down) – Signed to a five-year, $139MM deal in 2016

DeRozan threw in a clunker in San Antonio’s play-in game against Memphis, shooting 5-for-21 from the field. The master of the mid-range game now enters unrestricted free agency in a league that craves 3-point shooters at the wing.

DeRozan does more than just knock down 18-footers. He’s got a knack for drawing fouls and this season he averaged a career-high 6.9 assists. What will that package of skills draw on the open market? We’ll find out if DeRozan doesn’t reach an extension agreement with San Antonio. The Spurs have an exclusive window to reach a new deal with DeRozan before free agency begins at the start of August.

Lonzo Ball, Pelicans, 23, PG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $33.5MM deal in 2017

Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram said glowing things about Ball in their post-season press conferences. Ball said he would “love” to remain in New Orleans. Now, the proverbial ball is in the front office’s court.

Will the Pelicans extend a $14.36MM qualifying offer to Ball to make him a restricted free agent? If so, will they match any offer sheet? Should the Pelicans do so, they’re basically telling everyone they believe the trio of Williamson, Ingram and Ball is a championship-caliber core. That’s a pretty big leap of faith, considering the Pelicans went 31-41 this season with each of them playing at least 55 games. But Ball’s going to get paid this summer, one way or another.

Josh Richardson, Mavericks, 27, SF/SG (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $42MM deal in 2018

Richardson was acquired from the Sixers in a draft-night deal to upgrade their perimeter defense. According to the numbers, Richardson hasn’t made much of an impact in that area. He ranked 22nd among shooting guards on ESPN’s defensive real plus-minus ratings. Richardson’s offensive rating was even lower after averaging 12.1 PPG on 42.7% shooting (33% on threes) despite playing with a premier play-maker.

Richardson holds an $11.6MM option on his contract for next season. Perhaps he’ll seek for a multi-year deal on the open market but it may be prudent for him to take the guaranteed money and test the waters next summer.

Kelly Olynyk, Rockets, 30, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $50MM deal in 2017

Anyone want a stretch four who averages 19 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.1 APG and 1.4 SPG? Those are the stats Olynyk posted in a 27-game stint with the tanking Rockets. Those numbers can be taken with a grain of salt – Olynyk didn’t suddenly turn into an All-Star level talent at 30 years old. He did show that he can still be a highly productive rotation player. For obvious reasons, Olynyk enjoyed his stint in Houston and that will factor into his decision as he heads into unrestricted free agency. If nothing else, he gained more leverage over the past two months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Key 2021 NBA Offseason Dates, Deadlines

May 21st, 2021 at 2:07pm CST by Luke Adams

With the 2020/21 NBA regular season in the books, half of the league’s teams have shifted their focus to the offseason, and others will soon follow suit. With that in mind, it’s time to retire our list of the NBA’s key in-season dates and deadlines for the ’20/21 campaign in favor of an updated offseason calendar of the most important dates facing teams and players in the coming months.

With the help of information from ESPN’s Bobby Marks, here’s a breakdown of many of the NBA’s important dates and deadlines for the next few months:

May 25

  • NBA conducts random tiebreakers for lottery and draft positioning (link).

May 30

  • Deadline for early entrants to declare for the NBA draft (10:59pm CT).
    • Note: For more information on draft-related dates and deadlines, check out our full breakdown.

June 19-21

  • NBA G League Elite Camp (link).

June 21-27

  • NBA draft combine.

June 22

  • NBA draft lottery.

July 7

  • Last day for early entrants to withdraw from the NBA draft and retain their NCAA eligibility (10:59pm CT).

July 19

  • Deadline for all early entrants (including international players) to withdraw from the NBA draft (4:00pm CT).

July 22

  • Latest possible end date for the NBA Finals.

July 23 – August 8

  • Tokyo Olympics.

July 29

  • NBA draft day.

August 1

  • Last day for decisions on player, team, and early termination options (some individual contracts may require earlier decisions).
  • Last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.

August 2

August 3:

  • Official start of the 2021/22 NBA league year.
  • Moratorium period begins.
  • Restricted free agents can sign an offer sheet.
  • Teams can begin signing players to rookie scale contracts, minimum salary contracts, and two-way contracts.
  • Teams can begin exercising the third- or fourth-year team options for 2022/23 on rookie scale contracts.

August 6

  • Moratorium period ends (11:01am CT)
  • Teams can begin officially signing players, extending players, and completing trades (11:01am CT).
  • The two-day period for matching an RFA offer sheet signed during the moratorium begins.

August 8-17

  • Las Vegas Summer League (link).

August 13

  • Last day for teams to unilaterally withdraw qualifying offers to restricted free agents.

There are a number of minor NBA offseason deadlines that typically land in July or August, which we’re still waiting to hear about.

For instance, in a normal league year, August 31 would be the last day for a team to waive a player and apply the stretch provision to his current-year salary. Our working assumption is that deadlines like that one will be moved back by a few weeks along with the rest of this year’s offseason dates, but we don’t know the specific details yet.

There were also several traded player exceptions created during last year’s free agent period whose expiry dates may be moved forward so that they better line up with the 2021 free agent period. We’ll wait for further clarity on those TPE expiry dates as well.

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Latest On NBA’s Lottery Standings, Draft Order

May 21st, 2021 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

On Monday, we took an in-depth look at what we knew about the NBA’s 2021 draft lottery standings and projected draft order so far based on the regular season standings, and what was still to be determined based on play-in results, random tiebreakers, and the lottery results.

With the play-in tournament nearly over, we can fill in a few more gaps. Let’s dive in…

Lottery standings

Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will be at No. 13 in the lottery standings, giving them a 1% chance at the first overall pick and a 4.8% shot at a top-five selection, per Tankathon.

A tiebreaker will be necessary to determine whether the Spurs or Hornets get the edge in the lottery standings, but they’ll occupy the Nos. 11 and 12 spots in the lottery standings. The winner of the tiebreaker – to be conducted next Tuesday – will have a slightly higher chance of earning the first overall pick (1.8% to 1.7%) and a top-four pick (8.5% to 8.0%).

The No. 14 spot in the lottery will be held by the loser of Friday’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game.

Draft order

Having clinched playoff spots, the Wizards and Celtics will draft 15th and 16th, respectively, in the first round.

The winner of tonight’s Warriors/Grizzlies play-in game will draft 17th, while the Lakers will be part of a Tuesday tiebreaker to determine their exact position — they could draft as high as 21st and as low as 23rd.

If the Lakers had missed the postseason, teams like the Heat, Knicks, and Hawks each would have been pushed down one spot in the draft. Since L.A. made it, those teams will stay put, starting with Miami at No. 18.

Notable traded second-round picks

On Monday, we focused on what would happen with 2021’s traded first-round picks. So many of this year’s second-round picks have been traded that we’re not going to run through all of them in this space (you can check our tracker for the full details), but here are a few notable second-round swaps worth flagging:

The Pacers traded their second-round pick to the Nets with 45-60 protection. Because Indiana’s second-rounder is going to land at No. 44, that pick will be sent to Brooklyn rather than being protected.

The Bulls, who will be involved in a first-round tiebreaker with the Pelicans (and Kings) to determine their spots in the lottery standings, also have the ability to swap second-round picks with New Orleans. In the event of a random tiebreaker, the second-round order is always the inverse of the first-round order — for instance, if Team A wins a first-round tiebreaker over Team B, then Team B would get the higher pick in the second round. But in this case, the Bulls could win the first-round tiebreaker, then use their second-round swap to make sure they pick ahead of the Pelicans in both rounds.

Because the Warriors‘ first-round pick will fall in the top 20, Golden State will keep it and will instead have to send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick to the Thunder to complete last year’s Kelly Oubre trade. That pick will be No. 36.

The Suns had agreed to send their second-round pick to the Grizzlies if it landed between 31-35 and to the Nets if it landed between 36-60. It’ll go to Brooklyn, since it’s the No. 59 overall selection. Memphis is simply out of luck, as Phoenix’s obligation to the Grizzlies is now extinguished.

The Bucks will get the first pick of the second round (No. 31), since the Rockets have the ability to swap their second-rounder for Milwaukee’s first-rounder (No. 24).

Other early second-round picks that will change hands include the Pistons‘ No. 32 pick (to the Knicks), the Cavaliers‘ pick at either No. 34 or 35 (to the Pelicans), and the Raptors‘ No. 37 pick (to the Pistons).

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Poll: Play-In Winners For No. 8 Seeds

May 20th, 2021 at 2:04pm CST by Luke Adams

While some games in the NBA’s play-in tournament have been a little more exciting than others, the end result of all four has been the same so far: the higher seed has advanced.

That means we’ve got a pair of No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchups on tap, with the final playoff spot in each conference on the line, starting on Thursday night with the Eastern Conference….

Indiana Pacers (9) at Washington Wizards (8)

Given the way the last month of their respective seasons played out, the red-hot Wizards looked like a safe bet to earn a playoff spot, while the inconsistent, injury-plagued Pacers seemed to be a candidate for an early exit. But Washington couldn’t knock off Boston on Tuesday, and a shorthanded Indiana squad dominated Charlotte, setting up an elimination game between the two teams for Thursday.

Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook fueled the Wizards’ 17-6 finish to the season, but neither player looked quite like himself on Tuesday. Beal, still bothered by a hamstring injury, scored 22 points on 10-of-25 shooting, a subpar night by his lofty standards. Westbrook was worse — after averaging a monster line of 23.0 PPG, 14.0 APG, and 13.5 RPG in Washington’s final 23 games, he shot just 6-of-18 on Tuesday and had nearly as many turnovers (4) as assists (5).

To advance on Thursday, the Wizards will need more from their two backcourt stars and from $80MM man Davis Bertans, who missed all seven of his 3-point attempts on Tuesday and was a game-worst minus-23.

As for the Pacers, even without key players like Caris LeVert, Myles Turner, and T.J. Warren available, they put up 144 points in their win over Charlotte. But the Hornets had backed into the play-in tournament, losing 15 of their last 21 games of the regular season, and were dealing with injury absences of their own, including standout forward Gordon Hayward. Indiana will face a more difficult challenge on Thursday and will no longer benefit from home-court advantage.

What do you think? Will the Wizards or Pacers win on Thursday and clinch the East’s No. 8 seed?

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Memphis Grizzlies (9) at Golden State Warriors (8)

The Warriors defeated the Grizzlies on the last day of the regular season to earn the No. 8 seed in the play-in tournament. On Friday, just five days later, they’ll be looking to repeat that result to clinch the No. 8 seed for the playoffs.

Although the Warriors couldn’t pick up a win on Wednesday, their performance against the defending-champion Lakers showed why they’ll enter Friday’s game as the favorites. The Dubs held the Lakers to 40.7% shooting and led for most of the night, but a miracle LeBron James three-pointer broke a tie in the game’s final minute.

Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, who combined for 58 of Golden State’s 100 points on Wednesday, may need a little more help on Friday, but the fact that Los Angeles couldn’t slow down Curry (37 points on 12-of-23 shooting) even with so much defensive attention on him is an encouraging sign for the Warriors.

The Grizzlies shouldn’t be ruled out, however. While the final score in Wednesday’s 100-96 win over San Antonio was close, Memphis dominated the minutes that Ja Morant (+20) and Jonas Valanciunas (+26) played and figure to lean heavily on that duo again on Friday.

The Grizzlies’ chances of hanging with Golden State and pulling off the upset hinge not only on Valanciunas’ ability to punish the Warriors inside like he did the Spurs (23 points, 23 rebounds), but on Memphis’ ability to play good defense while the veteran center is on the court. In Sunday’s loss, Valanciunas racked up 29 points and 16 boards, but the Grizzlies posted an awful 127.0 defensive rating during his 36 minutes.

What do you think? Will the Warriors or Grizzlies win on Friday and lock up the No. 8 seed in the West?

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NBA Player Option Decisions For 2021/22

May 19th, 2021 at 10:34am CST by Luke Adams

A number of NBA contracts include player options in the final year. Those option years give the player the opportunity to either opt into the final year of his deal, finishing out his contract, or to decline the option and hit the free agent market a year early.

Several factors play a part in a player’s option decision. The value of the option salary is obviously crucial, as is the player’s performance in the season leading up to his decision. The state of the NBA’s salary cap also generally becomes a necessary consideration for players weighing their decisions.

If the salary cap is projected to increase only modestly, or if not many teams project to have cap room, a player may be inclined to take the guaranteed money rather than trying his luck on the open market. That could be the case for some players in 2021, as the cap may only increase by about 3% and most teams won’t have room available.

This year’s player options are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the spring and early summer to note the latest decisions.

Each player’s decision date comes courtesy of ESPN’s Bobby Marks. Unless otherwise indicated, the player’s decision is due by August 1.

Atlanta Hawks

Brooklyn Nets

Chicago Bulls

Cleveland Cavaliers

Dallas Mavericks

Denver Nuggets

Golden State Warriors

Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles Lakers

Milwaukee Bucks

Phoenix Suns

Portland Trail Blazers

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

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Poll: Western Conference Play-In Games

May 18th, 2021 at 10:47am CST by Luke Adams

On Monday, we asked for your predictions for the first two Eastern Conference play-in games, and you’ll have until tonight to place your votes on those two contests. In the meantime though, we want to give you plenty of time to make your predictions for Wednesday’s play-in games too, so we’re shifting our focus to the Western Conference today.

Here are the two Western play-in games scheduled for Wednesday:

San Antonio Spurs (10) at Memphis Grizzlies (9)

The Spurs are in the midst of an interesting transition period, having parted ways with longtime standout LaMarcus Aldridge this season as youngsters like Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, and Lonnie Walker took on larger roles. DeMar DeRozan remained the team’s offensive engine, but he’s in a contract year and may be playing his final games as a Spur.

The Spurs are missing starting guard Derrick White and backed their way into a play-in spot, having lost 10 of their last 12 games. However, a team led by Gregg Popovich shouldn’t be ruled out, even if San Antonio will enter this game as an underdog.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, exceeded expectations this season despite playing without Jaren Jackson Jr. for most of the year. Ja Morant, the team’s top scorer, has led the way, but Memphis is getting impressive contributions from the likes of Jonas Valanciunas, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Desmond Bane, among others.

The Grizzlies were also on a five-game winning streak before losing its regular season finale to Golden State and might have a little more momentum than the Spurs entering the play-in. This is a young team, but it’s a relatively healthy one and has shown over the last two years that it can compete in big games.

The winner of this game will advance and play on Friday for the No. 8 seed, while the loser will be eliminated from postseason contention.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote on Grizzlies/Spurs.

Golden State Warriors (8) at Los Angeles Lakers (7)

By far the most compelling matchup of any of the first play-in games, this battle for the No. 7 seed will pit LeBron James and Anthony Davis against Stephen Curry and Draymond Green for the right to face the Suns in round one.

On paper, the defending-champion Lakers look like the obvious pick here, with James and Davis back in the lineup and the team on a five-game winning streak entering the play-in tournament. The Lakers will have home-court advantage and will be motivated to take care of business on Wednesday in order to get some rest before the first round begins. Betting sites, including BetOnline.ag, list them as the biggest favorite of the four play-in hosts.

But James and Davis only recently returned from lengthy injury absences and neither superstar has looked 100% healthy as of late. If James tweaks his ankle again or Davis’ back acts up, the Lakers’ margin of error will shrink significantly, opening the door for the Warriors to pull off the upset.

Even a healthy Lakers team could be in trouble if Curry catches fire. The NBA’s leading scorer has been playing some of the best basketball over the last two months, averaging an eye-popping 37.1 points on .493/.436/.896 shooting in 22 games since early April, despite being the focal point of every opposing defense. Preventing Curry from heating up beyond the arc will be crucial if the Lakers want to secure a win.

While the winner of this game locks up the No. 7 seed in the West, the loser will host the Grizzlies/Spurs winner on Friday for the right to earn the No. 8 seed.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote on Lakers/Warriors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Revisiting 2020/21 NBA Over/Under Predictions

May 18th, 2021 at 8:16am CST by Luke Adams

Before the 2020/21 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Bucks (51.5 wins) to the Knicks, Pistons, and Thunder (22.5 wins apiece), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the fourth year we’ve run these polls, and in each of the first three years, our voters have finished a little under .500, including 14-16 in each of the last two seasons. Did that change in 2020/21? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (Over 45.5 wins): ❌ (36-36)
  • Brooklyn Nets (Over 45.5 wins): ✅ (48-24)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (Over 44.5 wins): ✅ (49-23)
  • Toronto Raptors (Over 42.5 wins): ❌ (27-45)
  • New York Knicks (Under 22.5 wins): ❌ (41-31)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (Over 51.5 wins): ❌ (46-26)
  • Indiana Pacers (Over 39.5 wins): ❌ (34-38)
  • Chicago Bulls (Under 29.5 wins): ❌ (31-41)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 23.5 wins): ✅ (22-50)
  • Detroit Pistons (Over 22.5 wins): ❌ (20-52)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (Over 44.5 wins): ❌ (40-32)
  • Atlanta Hawks (Over 36.5 wins): ✅ (41-31)
  • Washington Wizards (Under 34.5 wins): ✅ (34-38)
  • Orlando Magic (Under 31.5 wins): ✅ (21-51)
  • Charlotte Hornets (Over 26.5 wins): ✅ (33-39)

Eastern Conference record: 7-8

Projecting under 22.5 wins for the Knicks was one of the big misses in the Atlantic, as no team exceeded its projected win total this season by more than New York — to be fair, not many experts saw that coming either.

The Central was full of near-misses, with the Bucks, Pacers, and Pistons falling a little short of expectations, while the Bulls slightly exceeded theirs.

A strong 4-1 showing in the Southeast, however, helped make up for a 3-7 record in the East’s other two divisions. The Hawks and Hornets went comfortably over, while the Magic went far under and the Wizards dug too deep a hole to clear their over by season’s end. If the Heat hadn’t been hit so hard early in the season by injuries and the health and safety protocols, we could’ve had a clean sweep in the Southeast.

Western Conference

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (Over 44.5 wins): ✅ (47-25)
  • Utah Jazz (Over 42.5 wins): ✅ (52-30)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (Over 41.5 wins): ✅ (42-30)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (Under 29.5 wins): ✅ (23-49)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (Under 22.5 wins): ✅ (22-50)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (Over 48.5 wins): ❌ (42-30)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (Under 47.5 wins): ✅ (47-25)
  • Phoenix Suns (Over 40.5 wins): ✅ (51-21)
  • Golden State Warriors (Over 38.5 wins): ✅ (39-33)
  • Sacramento Kings (Under 29.5 wins): ❌ (31-41)

Southwest:

  • Dallas Mavericks (Over 43.5 wins): ❌ (42-30)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (Over 36.5 wins): ❌ (31-41)
  • Houston Rockets (Under 35.5 wins): ✅ (17-55)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (Over 32.5 wins): ✅ (38-34)
  • San Antonio Spurs (Under 30.5 wins): ❌ (33-39)

Western Conference record: 10-5

That’s more like it! The Northwest was the rare division where the perceived “good” teams all went over their projected win totals, while the “bad” teams went under. That worked out perfectly for us, resulting in our voters’ first ever 5-for-5 division. The 42nd win for the Trail Blazers and 50th loss for the Thunder were especially big.

We also benefited from a little luck with the Clippers‘ and Warriors‘ year-end records, and predicting the Suns would go over was a great call — Phoenix was the Western team that exceeded its projected win total by the greatest margin.

Our enthusiasm for the Mavericks and Pelicans in the Southwest didn’t play off, but our bearish outlook for the Rockets did. Houston was the only team not to even get halfway to its projected win total this season.

Overall record: 17-13

For the first time in four years, you would’ve come out a little ahead if you’d taken our voters’ picks to Vegas. That’s all the more impressive given the unusual circumstances of the 72-game 2020/21 season.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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