Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Play-In Tournament

May 16th, 2021 at 9:50am CST by Arthur Hill

The NBA’s new play-in tournament has plenty of fans and critics, but it has created a lot of compelling races as the season heads into its final day.

There’s suddenly a huge difference between sixth place and seventh, as the top six teams in each conference get nearly a week to rest while the teams in the tournament battle for playoff spots. The defending champion Lakers find themselves in seventh place in the West right now and need a win over the Pelicans tonight coupled with a Trail Blazers loss to the Nuggets to avoid the tournament.

The seventh and eighth teams in each conference will meet in the first round, while team No. 9 will face team No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game will earn a playoff berth, while the loser of the 9-10 game will be eliminated. The other two teams will play for the final spot in each conference.

The scenario sets up several games with high stakes on the last day of the season. The Grizzlies and Warriors will meet this afternoon in Memphis with identical 38-33 records and the eighth seed on the line. In the East, the Hornets, Wizards and Pacers are all tied at 33-38. Washington hosts Charlotte today with the winner claiming the eighth seed and the loser likely falling to 10th.

No matter how the races end up, the tournament will start Tuesday night with both Eastern games, followed Wednesday by the two Western contests. The games to decide the final playoff spots will take place Thursday in the East and Friday for the West.

Commissioner Adam Silver has favored this format for years as a way to add excitement and unpredictability to the postseason. Some prominent league voices, including LeBron James and Mark Cuban, have criticized the idea, especially in a year with a condensed scheduled.

We want to get your opinion. Has the play-in tournament livened up the playoff races? Should the league keep the current format, modify it or get rid of it altogether? Please leave your responses in the comments section.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

May 14th, 2021 at 8:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Northwest Division:

Norman Powell, Trail Blazers, 27, SG/SF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $42MM deal in 2018

Powell was a popular name at the trade deadline as numerous teams pursued the high-scoring wing. Portland won the sweepstakes by giving up a solid young player in Gary Trent Jr., as well as Rodney Hood. Powell has an $11.6MM option on his contract for next season but he’s widely expected to decline it. He’ll be popular once again after the season, this time as an unrestricted free agent. He has struggled somewhat with his 3-point shooting since Toronto traded him but he’s still averaging 17.2 PPG with the Trail Blazers. His price tag will rise even more if he excels in the postseason.

Georges Niang, Jazz, 27, SF/PF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $5MM deal in 2018

The Jazz don’t ask Niang to score a whole lot – he’s mainly limited to a few 3-point opportunities per game – but he does all the little things necessary to retain a rotation spot on a team with the league’s best record. He’s appeared in every game this season, averaging 15.9 MPG. With several key teammates sidelined lately, Niang has stepped up his offensive production, scoring in the double-digits in eight of the last 12 games. An unrestricted free agent, Niang seems like a nice fit in Utah, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he stays put. If not, he’ll be valued as a reliable second-unit player.

Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Thunder, 23, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $4.6MM deal in 2018

Mykhailiuk had a golden opportunity to post some big numbers on a tanking team when the Pistons traded him to the Thunder. It would be unfair to say Mykhailiuk has flopped but he hasn’t really built up his value. He’s continued to struggle with his 3-point shot (32.2%), though he’s shown more willingness to drive to the basket and collected some steals on the defensive end. His qualifying offer is only $2MM, so there’s incentive for Oklahoma City to make him a restricted free agent. But Mykhailiuk probably won’t get an offer sheet, so he’ll either have to sign the QO or work out a contract with the Thunder.

Austin Rivers, Nuggets, 28, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $270K deal in 2021

Rivers basically found himself in exile in New York this season. Unable to crack Tom Thibodeau’s rotation, Rivers wound up being a throw-in at the trade deadline, then was promptly waived by Oklahoma City. Jamal Murray’s season-ending injury led to Denver offering him a 10-day contract and Rivers soon earned a rest-of-the-season deal. With Will Barton also sidelined by a hamstring injury, Rivers not only finds himself in the rotation but also in the starting lineup. He’s averaging 15.2 PPG over the last five games while draining 19 of 36 3-pointers. The postseason will give Rivers even more chances to attract interest in the free agent market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2021 NBA Draft Dates, Deadlines To Watch

May 11th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still more than two-and-a-half months away from NBA draft day, but before we get to July 29, there are several other important dates and deadlines on the calendar. Here are some of those dates and deadlines worth keeping an eye on:

May 30 (11:59pm ET): Deadline for early entrants to declare for the draft

College players and international early entrants have until the end of the day on May 30 to submit their names into the 2021 NBA draft pool. They can withdraw their names later if they decide they’re not quite ready to go pro, though if college players want to maintain their NCAA eligibility, they must put off hiring an agent who’s not certified by the NCAA.

In a typical year, once the early entrant list is set, NBA teams can begin conducting or attending workouts for those players. However, with COVID-19 still looming as a factor, it’s not clear what form pre-draft workouts will take in 2021.

June 19-21: NBA G League Elite Camp

After having to cancel this event in 2020 due to the pandemic, the NBA will bring it back in 2021.

In 2019, the Elite Camp – having recently been revamped by the NBA – consisted of 40 G League invitees participating in the first half of the event, followed by 40 top draft-eligible players (who weren’t invited to the actual combine) taking part in the second half. It’s unclear if the format will remain the same this year.

June 21-27: NBA draft combine

This week-long event allows NBA teams to get a first-hand look at many of the year’s top draft-eligible players. According to the league, the plan for this year’s combine is to conduct five-on-five games and strength and agility testing, though that’s subject to “evolving public health conditions.”

The combine is often particularly important for early entrants who have yet to decide whether or not to stay in the draft. The feedback they get at the combine could go a long way toward dictating whether they keep their names in the draft or return to school for another year.

June 22: NBA draft lottery (8:30pm ET)

The 2021 draft lottery will be the third one that uses the new format, which was introduced in 2019. With the lottery odds flattened out, the NBA’s worst team will only have a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as opposed to the 25% chance it had prior to ’19.

The new system has provided some excitement during the past two draft lotteries, as five of the eight teams that claimed top-four picks in 2019 and 2020 entered the night without a top-six spot in the lottery standings.

Our reverse standings provide a glimpse at what the pre-lottery draft order could look like.

July 7 (11:59pm): NCAA early entrant withdrawal deadline

College underclassmen (and, this year, seniors) who want to retain their NCAA eligibility will have to withdraw their names from the draft pool by July 7. NBA rules call for a later withdrawal deadline, but the NCAA has its own set of rules that say the deadline is 10 days after the combine.

An early entrant could technically wait until after July 7 to withdraw from the draft and could still retain his NBA draft eligibility for a future year. However, he would forfeit his amateur status in that scenario, making him ineligible to return to his NCAA squad.

July 19 (5:00pm ET): NBA early entrant withdrawal deadline

This is the NBA’s final deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the draft pool and retain their draft eligibility for a future year.

By this point, we generally know whether an NCAA underclassman kept his name in the draft or not, but this is an important deadline for international players, who aren’t subject to the same restrictions as college players. We’ll likely hear about several international early entrants withdrawing from the draft during the days leading up to July 19.

July 29: NBA draft day

The most exciting few weeks of the NBA offseason unofficially get underway on draft day, which is often when some of the first major trades of the summer are completed and we get a sense of which direction certain teams are heading.

It’s also worth noting that the hours and days after the draft ends will be hugely important for many of this year’s draft-eligible prospects — a ton of players who aren’t selected with one of the 60 picks in the draft will reach agreements shortly thereafter to play for an NBA team’s Summer League squad, to attend training camp with a club, or to sign a two-way contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Crowded All-NBA Field Will Impact Several Contract Situations

May 11th, 2021 at 11:02am CST by Luke Adams

When Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer shared his early All-NBA picks this week, he rightly pointed out that limiting the field to 15 players will leave a number of worthy candidates on the outside looking in. O’Connor had to exclude worthy contenders such as Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Jaylen Brown, Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, Jrue Holiday, and Kyrie Irving from his three All-NBA teams.

Among the other players left off the top 15 by O’Connor were Donovan Mitchell, Zach LaVine, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox. Those players are especially notable because an All-NBA spot this season would either substantially increase the value of the contract extensions they signed last offseason or would put them in line for a significantly more lucrative extension this summer.

Jayson Tatum, who earned a spot on O’Connor’s All-NBA Third Team, is in the same boat. Like Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox, he signed a rookie scale extension that includes Rose Rule language, which could bump his starting salary from 25% of the cap to 30% of the cap.

Here are how those players, who signed five-year, maximum-salary contract extensions last offseason, will be affected by whether or not they earn All-NBA honors. These are projected values based on a 3% salary cap increase.

Player	No All-NBA	All-NBA
Donovan Mitchell	$163,000,590	$195,600,710
Jayson Tatum	$163,000,590	$195,600,710
Bam Adebayo	$163,000,590	$185,820,675 (First Team only)
De’Aaron Fox	$163,000,590	$169,522,180 (Third Team) *

* Fox’s deal would be worth $182,560,660 if he makes the All-NBA Second Team and $195,600,710 if he makes the First Team.

Fox probably has no chance at making an All-NBA team, given the competition at guard and the Kings’ spot in the standings. The other three players here have better cases, but Adebayo is likely a long shot, making Mitchell and Tatum the most realistic candidates. They’d only need to sneak onto the Third Team to increase the projected value of their new five-year deals by more than $32MM.

As O’Connor writes, Tatum has a clearer path to an All-NBA spot than Mitchell based on his position. The guard spot is absolutely stacked this season — Mitchell would have to beat out at least one of Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, and James Harden, as well as all the guards mentioned at the top of this story. As good as he’s been, he may be left out.

While Tatum, Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox have already negotiated “super-max” language into their contracts and are now trying to guarantee a salary increase by earning All-NBA honors, a handful of players will become eligible for a higher maximum salary on a new extension if they make an All-NBA team this year. An All-NBA spot would either make them eligible for a Rose Rule extension or a Designated Veteran Extension.

Here are those players, along with the projected contract extension they’d become eligible for with an All-NBA nod. These projections are on the conservative side, since they’re based on annual salary cap increases of just 3%.

Player	Max extension with All-NBA spot	Year it would begin
Nikola Jokic	Five years, $242,098,25	2023/24 *
Joel Embiid	Four years, $187,000,032	2023/24
Zach LaVine	Five years, $235,046,855	2022/23
Luka Doncic	Five years, $201,468,730	2022/23

* Jokic would have to wait until the 2022 offseason to sign a super-max extension. The others could sign extensions during the 2021 offseason.

Embiid is still under contract for two more years beyond 2020/21, which is why he’d only be able to tack on four new years to his current deal instead of five. Jokic is in a similar spot, but because he’ll only have six years of NBA service at the end of this season, he’d have to wait until 2022 to officially sign an extension, at which point he’d be eligible for five new years instead of just four.

Doncic’s potential extension has the lowest average value of any of these hypothetical deals because he’d only be eligible for a starting salary worth 30% of the cap, instead of 35%, due to his limited years of NBA service.

MVP candidates Jokic, Embiid, and Doncic all look like pretty safe bets to make an All-NBA team this spring, and I imagine the Nuggets, Sixers, and Mavericks will be ready to put super-max extension offers on the table for their respective stars as soon as they’re eligible to sign them.

As for LaVine, he likely won’t make an All-NBA team, which may be a relief for the Bulls — deciding whether or not to offer LaVine a standard maximum contract could be a difficult decision in its own right. If he were eligible for a super-max, that would make negotiations even more challenging.

Assuming LaVine doesn’t earn All-NBA honors, he’d only be eligible for a four-year, $104.83MM extension this offseason. However, the Bulls could go higher than that if they renegotiate his 2021/22 salary using their cap room, or if they wait until the 2022 offseason — as a free agent, LaVine would be eligible for a five-year contract worth up to $201.47MM (projection based on 3% annual cap increases) if he re-signs with Chicago, even without All-NBA honors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Lottery Races To Watch During Season’s Final Week

May 10th, 2021 at 2:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.

The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.

With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:

The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot

It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.

Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.

The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.

If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.

The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs

The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).

The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.

While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.

The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.

Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:

#	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–
3	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7	–	–	–
4	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.7	2.2	–	–
5	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.7	0.6	–
6	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.8	20.6	3.7	0.1

When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.

In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”

For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.

Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.

The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot

The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.

Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.

Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.

For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.

Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.

Mid-Level, Bi-Annual Projections For 2021/22

May 9th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Under the NBA’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, the values of various salary cap exceptions like the mid-level and bi-annual were established years in advance, but the league’s current CBA tweaked how those exceptions are calculated.

Rather than being determined ahead of time, the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions – along with several other cap-related figures and exceptions – are dependent on the movement of the salary cap from year to year. If the cap increases by 5% from one league year to the next, the exceptions increase by the same rate.

As such, we don’t know yet exactly what those exceptions will be worth in 2021/22, but we can make an educated estimate. When the NBA updated its salary cap projections last November, the league said the cap would increase by a minimum of 3% and a maximum of 10% in ’21/22.

While that’s a pretty wide range, there’s a general belief that an increase on the lower end (3%) is the most likely outcome, given the projected revenue the league has lost this year due to not being able to fill arenas. If the cap does increase by 3%, the values of the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would increase by 3% too.

Based on a 3% cap increase, here’s what the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would look like in 2021/22:

Mid-Level Exception

Year	Standard MLE	Taxpayer MLE	Room MLE
2021/22	$9,536,000	$5,890,000	$4,910,000
2022/23	$10,012,800	$6,184,500	$5,155,500
2023/24	$10,489,600	$6,479,000	–
2043/25	$10,966,400	–	–
Total	$41,004,800	$18,553,500	$10,065,500

The standard mid-level exception is available to over-the-cap teams that haven’t dipped below the cap to use room and don’t go over the tax apron. It can run for up to four years, with 5% annual raises. Once a team uses the standard/non-taxpayer MLE, that team is hard-capped at the tax apron for the rest of the league year.

The taxpayer mid-level exception is for in-the-tax teams, or teams that want the flexibility to surpass the tax apron later. It can run for up to three years, with 5% annual raises.

The room exception is for teams that go under the cap and use their space. Once they’ve used all their cap room, they can use this version of the mid-level exception, which runs for up to two years with 5% annual raises.

Bi-Annual Exception

Year	BAE Value
2021/22	$3,732,000
2022/23	$3,918,600
Total	$7,650,600

The bi-annual exception – which can be used for contracts up to two years, with a 5% raise after year one – is only available to teams that are over the cap and under the tax apron.

It can also only be used once every two years, which will disqualify the Nuggets, Lakers, and Bucks from using it in 2021/22 — they all used their BAE in 2020/21.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division

May 7th, 2021 at 8:31pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Nemanja Bjelica, Heat, 32, PF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $20.5MM deal in 2018

There was a lot of bellyaching in Sacramento this season when Bjelica’s minutes were basically handed to Marvin Bagley III, as the Kings evaluated whether to make the 2018 No. 2 overall pick part of their long-term plans. Bjelica didn’t play for a month until injuries forced the Kings’ hands in February. He got a fresh start with Miami when it acquired him at the trade deadline. It hasn’t worked out.

Bjelica has been a non-factor while playing spot minutes. His 3-point shooting has tanked without steady playing time and that’s his top asset. Bjelica might wind up back in Europe unless he’s willing to accept a second-unit role at a much lower salary than he’s made the last three seasons.

Daniel Gafford, Wizards, 22, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6.1MM deal in 2019

When NBA analysts look at which trade deadline acquisitions have made the biggest impact, no one would have guessed that Gafford would be at or near the top of the list. He’s limited offensively but on his best nights, he’s a ferocious rebounder and shot-blocker.

Gafford is averaging 10.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 2.0 BPG in 17.9 MPG for a team that has been decimated by frontcourt injuries. His $1.78MM salary for next season doesn’t fully guarantee until next January. The Wizards hold a $1.93MM option on the 2022/23 season. Rest assured, Washington will keep Gafford around.

John Collins, Hawks, 23, PF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $11MM deal in 2017

Collins could be the most intriguing free agent on the market this summer. The Hawks can make him a restricted free agency by extending him a $7.7MM qualifying offer. That’s a safe assumption. From there, things will get very interesting. Collins’ name was bandied about in trade rumors this winter – he reportedly turned down a $90MM extension offer with the hope of getting the max, or something close to it, in restricted free agency. Does any other team value Collins as a max-type player? We’ll find out when the market opens.

James Ennis, Magic, 30, SF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $3.33MM deal in 2020

The Magic brought back Ennis on a one-year deal for a team with playoff aspirations. Ennis was a starter the first half of the season until the front office decided to hit the reset button. With Orlando in total rebuild mode, Ennis will be seeking a new team this summer.

With the Magic focusing on their youth, Ennis hasn’t played this month, supposedly due to a sore calf. He’s passed through seven teams during his seven seasons in the league. Ennis will likely be looking at a one-year, veteran’s minimum deal for a club seeking insurance at small forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: No. 7 Seed In Eastern Conference

May 7th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier in the week, we noted that a fascinating race is shaping up in the 5-7 range of the Western Conference and asked whether you expect the Mavericks, Lakers, or Trail Blazers to finish in the seventh spot, making them subject to at least one play-in game.

While it may not have a narrative as compelling as the defending champions being forced to participate in a play-in tournament, the Eastern Conference is also producing a fascinating race in the 4-7 range.

Currently, the Knicks (37-29) control the No. 4 seed, followed by the Hawks (37-31) at No. 5. The Celtics and Heat are in a dead heat for sixth place, though their 35-31 records mean they’re actually tied with Atlanta in the loss column.

New York and Atlanta were among the Eastern Conference’s bottom-feeders a year ago, whereas Boston and Miami met in the 2020 Eastern Finals and entered the season expecting to be among the top five teams in the conference again. Now it seems very possible that either the Celtics or Heat will finish at No. 7 and host the first play-in game.

Here are the four teams’ remaining schedules:

Knicks: at PHX, at LAC, at LAL, vs. SAS, vs. CHA, vs. BOS (one back-to-back)
Hawks: vs. WSH, vs. WSH, vs. ORL, vs. HOU (one back-to-back)
Celtics: at CHI, vs. MIA, vs. MIA, at CLE, at MIN, at NYK (two back-to-backs)
Heat: vs. MIN, at BOS, at BOS, vs. PHI, at MIL, at DET (one back-to-back)

Although the Knicks have the most room for error, they also have the most challenging schedule of these four Eastern teams, especially if LeBron James and Anthony Davis are available for the Lakers in the final game of that West Coast road trip. The Knicks will finish their season with three games at home, but all three of their opponents in those games will be competing all-out for playoff positioning.

As hot as Washington has been, the Hawks easily have the most favorable remaining schedule of these four teams, with only four games left, including a pair against bottom-five teams in the NBA, Orlando and Houston. They’re in good position to clinch a top-six seed, especially if they win at least once vs. the Wizards.

The two upcoming games between the Celtics and Heat loom large in the race to avoid the play-in. Boston is 1-0 against Miami so far this season and will host both of those games, giving the Celtics the upper hand to clinch the tiebreaker and stay ahead of Pat Riley‘s club in the standings.

The fact that the Heat will follow up those two games vs. the Celtics by playing Philadelphia and Milwaukee while the C’s take on Cleveland and Minnesota further tilts the scales in Boston’s favor, though Jimmy Butler doesn’t sound worried about the Heat’s schedule.

One factor working in the Heat’s favor is that they hold a tiebreaker edge over the Knicks (but not Atlanta). The Celtics, meanwhile, are the only one of the four teams with two back-to-back sets, which may hurt them a little.

What do you think? Will the defending Eastern Conference champs end up in the No. 7 seed, taking part in the play-in tournament, or will they be able to pass one of the teams above them to clinch a top-six spot?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Potential 2021 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

May 7th, 2021 at 10:52am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.

In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.

Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.

Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)
Dennis Smith Jr. (Pistons)
Zach Collins (Trail Blazers)
Malik Monk (Hornets)

Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.

Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.

Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.

John Collins (Hawks)
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.

Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.

Bruce Brown (Nets)
Devonte’ Graham (Hornets)
Kendrick Nunn (Heat)
Duncan Robinson (Heat)
Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors)

Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).

After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.

Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Lakers, Mavs, Or Blazers In Play-In Tournament?

May 4th, 2021 at 8:00am CST by Luke Adams

The Lakers, Mavericks, and Trail Blazers all consider themselves solid playoff teams and potential contenders, but at least one of them will end up in the Western Conference’s play-in tournament in two weeks. With the Jazz, Suns, Clippers, and Nuggets in total control of the West’s top four seeds, the Lakers, Mavs, and Blazers find themselves vying for the fifth and sixth spots — the No. 7 finisher will host the first play-in game against the No. 8 seed.

After a bad loss at home vs. Toronto on Sunday, the Lakers (37-28) bounced back on Monday, pulling out a tight win over Denver and reclaiming the No. 5 seed for the time being. The Blazers (36-29), on the other hand, dropped into seventh place in the West with a loss in Atlanta, while the Mavs (36-28) had the night off.

With the three teams still separated by a single game, every night the rest of the way will have major postseason implications. Here are their remaining schedules:

Lakers: at LAC, at POR, vs. PHX, vs. NYK, vs. HOU, at IND, at NOP (three back-to-backs)
Mavs: at MIA, vs. BKN, vs. CLE, at CLE, at MEM, vs. NOP, vs. TOR, at MIN (two back-to-backs)
Blazers: at CLE, vs. LAL, vs. SAS, vs. HOU, at UTA, at PHX, vs. DEN (two back-to-backs)

On paper, the Mavericks may have the cleanest path to a top-six seed. After their games against the Heat and Nets this week, they won’t face another team in the top eight of either conference. They also have the advantage of holding the tiebreaker if the three teams finished tied in the standings, since they’ll be the Southwest division winner. If they finish tied with just the Lakers, they’d hold that tiebreaker as well, having gone 2-1 vs. L.A. this season.

The Lakers, currently in control of the No. 5 seed, have a huge week coming up, with games on tap against the Clippers, Blazers, Suns, and Knicks. That contest in Portland, on the second night of a back-to-back, will be particularly important — if the Lakers lose that one, they won’t own the tiebreaker against either the Mavs or the Blazers. Still, if they can at least split their next four games, the Lakers should be in reasonably good shape, as they finish their season against three sub-.500 opponents.

The Blazers, meanwhile, have the opportunity to make a run over the next week, especially if they can beat the Lakers at home. They’ll likely need to win at least three of their next four games to have a decent chance to avoid the play-in, since their season ends with a brutal three-game stretch — in Utah, in Phoenix, and at home vs. Denver. Maybe Portland lucks out and faces a couple of those teams when they’re resting players in advance of the playoffs, but given how close the standings are in the upper half of the West, there’s definitely no guarantee that’ll happen.

What do you think? Which team do you expect to end up with the seventh seed, taking part in the play-in? And do you think that team will be in any danger of losing two consecutive games against the likes of the Warriors, Grizzlies, and Spurs, or should they take care of business relatively quickly?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

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