Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: Eastern Conference Play-In Games

May 17th, 2021 at 12:48pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s 2021 play-in tournament will tip off on Tuesday night, when the No. 9 Pacers face the No. 10 Hornets in Indiana, followed by the No. 7 Celtics hosting the No. 8 Wizards in Boston.

By the end of the night, one team – either Boston or Washington – will have secured the No. 7 seed, earning a first-round date with the Nets. And one team – either Indiana or Charlotte – will be eliminated from postseason contention altogether.

The Pacers/Hornets matchup would be a little more intriguing if both teams were at full strength. Unfortunately, the Pacers will be without one of their top scorers (T.J. Warren) and are expected to be missing their defensive anchor (Myles Turner) as well. The Hornets, meanwhile, have gotten a little healthier as of late, but still don’t have their $120MM man (Gordon Hayward) available.

That doesn’t mean Indiana and Charlotte can’t play an entertaining game though. LaMelo Ball will be looking to put the finishing touches on a Rookie of the Year caliber season, while Nate Bjorkgren may be coaching for his job. Neither team will want its season to come to an end on Tuesday.

As for the headlining contest of the night, the fact that the Wizards are even involved in this game is pretty incredible. Washington started off the season with a 6-17 record and was 17-32 in early April. Since then, the team has reeled off 17 wins in 23 games, securing the No. 8 spot for the play-in tournament and looking a whole lot more dangerous as of late than the reeling Celtics.

The Celtics made the Eastern Conference Finals last season and entered the year with the aspirations of making another deep playoff run. It has been an up-and-down season in Boston though, and it has been trending down as of late. The C’s finished the season by losing nine of their last 13 games, and their only four wins in that stretch came against sub-.500 teams. With Jaylen Brown out for the season, the club will be shorthanded as it looks to secure a playoff spot.

Still, while the Wizards aren’t missing any top players, Bradley Beal continues to deal with a hamstring injury and isn’t at 100% entering the play-in tournament, as Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN writes. If the Eastern Conference’s leading scorer doesn’t look like his usual self, it may be an uphill battle for the Wizards to pick up a win in Boston.

We want to know what you think. Which teams will win the two Eastern Conference play-in games on Tuesday? Make your picks in the polls below, then head to the comment section to weigh in on which club will win Thursday’s play-in game to claim the No. 8 seed.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote on Pacers/Hornets.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote on Celtics/Wizards.

Checking In On NBA’s 2021 Lottery Standings, Projected Draft Order

May 17th, 2021 at 8:55am CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for July 29 has not yet been set. A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and – of course – the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 60 picks in the 2021 NBA draft look like. But with the 72-game season in the books, there’s plenty we do know.

Let’s dive in and check in on a few key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order…

Tentative lottery standings/odds

So far, only 10 of the 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are known, since the four teams eliminated in the play-in tournament will occupy spots 11 through 14. With the help of data from Tankathon and our own reverse standings, here’s a general idea of what their odds will look like for those top 10 teams:

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
HOU	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
DET	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
ORL	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
OKC*	11.5	11.4	11.2	11	7.4	27.1	18	2.4	–	–	–	–	–	–
CLE*	11.5	11.4	11.2	11	2.0	18.2	25.5	8.6	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
MIN	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.8	20.6	3.7	0.1	–	–	–	–
TOR	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
SAC*	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	34.5	36.2	8.5	0.5	>0	–	–
CHI*	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	46.4	29.4	3.9	0.1	>0	–
NOP*	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	–	60.6	17.9	1.2	>0	>0

Because the Thunder and Cavaliers finished with matching 22-50 records and the Kings, Bulls, and Pelicans all tied at 31-41, random tiebreakers will be completed to determine their exact lottery positioning. So their lottery odds, in italics, are just tentative so far.

While those tied teams receive identical odds at landing a top-four pick, regardless of the tiebreaker results, their spot in the lottery standings will affect where they land if they don’t move into the top four.

For instance, the Magic – who own Chicago’s first-rounder if it’s not in the top four – will certainly be rooting for the Bulls to win their tiebreaker over Sacramento and New Orleans. If the Bulls win that tiebreaker, their odds of moving into the top four won’t change, but the pick could be as high as No. 8 if it’s sent to the Magic. Should the Bulls lose that three-team tiebreaker, Orlando couldn’t receive a pick higher than No. 10.

The different colors in the chart above reflect that those teams could lose their picks. The Rockets‘ pick is top-four protected and will be sent to the Thunder if it lands at No. 5. The Timberwolves‘ pick is top-three protected and will go to the Warriors if it falls outside the top three. And, as discussed above, the Magic will receive the Bulls’ pick if it’s outside of the top four.

The play-in factor

The final four spots in the draft lottery will belong to the four teams that are eliminated in this week’s play-in tournament, sorted by record (worst to best). Here are the eight play-in teams:

San Antonio Spurs (33-39)
Charlotte Hornets (33-39)
Indiana Pacers (34-38)
Washington Wizards (34-38)
Boston Celtics (36-36)
Memphis Grizzlies (38-34)
Golden State Warriors (39-33)
Los Angeles Lakers (42-30)

Based on their 42-30 record, the Lakers could end up with a pick as low as No. 23 in the first round of the draft (depending on tiebreaker results). However, in the unlikely event that they lose two play-in games this week and don’t make the playoffs at all, they’d hold the No. 14 spot in the lottery instead.

It’s worth noting that the Spurs and Hornets finished with matching 33-39 records, while the Pacers and Wizards were each 34-38, so if both teams in either of those pairs are eliminated in the play-in tournament, a tiebreaker will be required to determine their spots in the lottery standings.

The tiebreakers

Many tiebreakers will be required to determine either lottery positioning or a team’s specific draft pick. Here are all the teams that finished with identical records, creating a situation where a tiebreaker will (or may) be required:

Oklahoma City Thunder / Cleveland Cavaliers (22-50)
Sacramento Kings / Chicago Bulls / New Orleans Pelicans (31-41)
- Note: The Bulls’ pick will be sent to the Magic if it falls outside of the top four.
San Antonio Spurs / Charlotte Hornets (33-39)
- Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
Indiana Pacers / Washington Wizards (34-38)
- Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
New York Knicks / Atlanta Hawks (41-31)
Los Angeles Lakers / Portland Trail Blazers / Dallas Mavericks (42-30)
- Note: The Blazers’ pick will be sent to the Rockets; the Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks.
Denver Nuggets / Los Angeles Clippers (47-25)

The traded first-round picks

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for the 2021 NBA draft:

Picks that will change hands:

Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick (unprotected).
- This pick will land somewhere in the 21-23 range, depending on the tiebreaker results.
Thunder acquiring Heat‘s pick (unprotected).
- This pick will land at either No. 18 or 19. While the Thunder will initially control it, they could end up swapping it for the Rockets’ pick — more details on that are below.
Rockets acquiring Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
- This pick will land somewhere in the 21-23 range, depending on the tiebreaker results.
Rockets acquiring Bucks‘ pick (top-nine protected swap).
- The Rockets will swap their second-round pick (No. 31) for the Bucks’ first-round pick (No. 24).

Picks that won’t change hands:

Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (1-7 and 15-30 protection).
- This pick will be No. 30, falling in its protected range. The Jazz will instead owe the Grizzlies their 2022 first-round pick (top-six protected).
Rockets acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
- This pick will be between 1-6, falling in its protected range. The Pistons will instead owe the Rockets their 2022 first-round pick (top-16 protected).
Thunder acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected).
- This pick could theoretically as high as No. 1 and as low as No. 18, depending on the play-in and lottery results. In any scenario, it will be protected, so the Warriors will instead send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick (No. 36) to the Thunder.
Knicks acquiring Clippers‘ pick (unprotected swap)
- The Knicks’ pick will land at No. 19 or 20, while the Clippers’ pick will be No. 25 or 26, so the Knicks will hang onto their own first-rounder rather than swapping.
Rockets acquiring Nets‘ pick (unprotected swap)
- The Rockets have the ability to swap their own pick, the Trail Blazers’ pick, or the Heat’s pick for the Nets’ pick, but the Nets’ pick will be the lowest (No. 27) of the bunch, so Brooklyn will keep it.

Picks that might change hands:

Warriors acquiring Timberwolves‘ pick (top-three protected).
- As detailed above, the Timberwolves will have a 27.6% chance of keeping this pick (in the 1-3 range). The Warriors will have a 72.4% chance of receiving it (No. 4 or in the 6-10 range).
Magic acquiring Bulls‘ pick (top-four protected).
- As detailed above, the Bulls will have a 20.2% chance of keeping this pick (in the 1-4 range). The Magic will have a 79.8% chance of receiving it (somewhere in the 8-14 range, depending on tiebreaker results).
Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick (8-30 protection).
- In the unlikely event that the Lakers miss the playoffs, they’d still have a 97.6% chance to keep this pick (at No. 14). The Pelicans would have a 2.4% chance of receiving it (in the 1-4 range).
Thunder acquiring Rockets‘ pick (top-four protected swap)
- The Thunder will have the ability to swap the Heat’s pick (No. 18 or 19) for the Rockets’ pick if Houston lands at No. 5. There’s a 47.9% chance that happens, and a 52.1% chance the Rockets will land in the top four and keep their pick. If Houston hangs onto its pick, the Thunder would keep Miami’s first-rounder.

Community Shootaround: Play-In Tournament

May 16th, 2021 at 9:50am CST by Arthur Hill

The NBA’s new play-in tournament has plenty of fans and critics, but it has created a lot of compelling races as the season heads into its final day.

There’s suddenly a huge difference between sixth place and seventh, as the top six teams in each conference get nearly a week to rest while the teams in the tournament battle for playoff spots. The defending champion Lakers find themselves in seventh place in the West right now and need a win over the Pelicans tonight coupled with a Trail Blazers loss to the Nuggets to avoid the tournament.

The seventh and eighth teams in each conference will meet in the first round, while team No. 9 will face team No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game will earn a playoff berth, while the loser of the 9-10 game will be eliminated. The other two teams will play for the final spot in each conference.

The scenario sets up several games with high stakes on the last day of the season. The Grizzlies and Warriors will meet this afternoon in Memphis with identical 38-33 records and the eighth seed on the line. In the East, the Hornets, Wizards and Pacers are all tied at 33-38. Washington hosts Charlotte today with the winner claiming the eighth seed and the loser likely falling to 10th.

No matter how the races end up, the tournament will start Tuesday night with both Eastern games, followed Wednesday by the two Western contests. The games to decide the final playoff spots will take place Thursday in the East and Friday for the West.

Commissioner Adam Silver has favored this format for years as a way to add excitement and unpredictability to the postseason. Some prominent league voices, including LeBron James and Mark Cuban, have criticized the idea, especially in a year with a condensed scheduled.

We want to get your opinion. Has the play-in tournament livened up the playoff races? Should the league keep the current format, modify it or get rid of it altogether? Please leave your responses in the comments section.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

May 14th, 2021 at 8:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Northwest Division:

Norman Powell, Trail Blazers, 27, SG/SF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $42MM deal in 2018

Powell was a popular name at the trade deadline as numerous teams pursued the high-scoring wing. Portland won the sweepstakes by giving up a solid young player in Gary Trent Jr., as well as Rodney Hood. Powell has an $11.6MM option on his contract for next season but he’s widely expected to decline it. He’ll be popular once again after the season, this time as an unrestricted free agent. He has struggled somewhat with his 3-point shooting since Toronto traded him but he’s still averaging 17.2 PPG with the Trail Blazers. His price tag will rise even more if he excels in the postseason.

Georges Niang, Jazz, 27, SF/PF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $5MM deal in 2018

The Jazz don’t ask Niang to score a whole lot – he’s mainly limited to a few 3-point opportunities per game – but he does all the little things necessary to retain a rotation spot on a team with the league’s best record. He’s appeared in every game this season, averaging 15.9 MPG. With several key teammates sidelined lately, Niang has stepped up his offensive production, scoring in the double-digits in eight of the last 12 games. An unrestricted free agent, Niang seems like a nice fit in Utah, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he stays put. If not, he’ll be valued as a reliable second-unit player.

Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Thunder, 23, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $4.6MM deal in 2018

Mykhailiuk had a golden opportunity to post some big numbers on a tanking team when the Pistons traded him to the Thunder. It would be unfair to say Mykhailiuk has flopped but he hasn’t really built up his value. He’s continued to struggle with his 3-point shot (32.2%), though he’s shown more willingness to drive to the basket and collected some steals on the defensive end. His qualifying offer is only $2MM, so there’s incentive for Oklahoma City to make him a restricted free agent. But Mykhailiuk probably won’t get an offer sheet, so he’ll either have to sign the QO or work out a contract with the Thunder.

Austin Rivers, Nuggets, 28, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $270K deal in 2021

Rivers basically found himself in exile in New York this season. Unable to crack Tom Thibodeau’s rotation, Rivers wound up being a throw-in at the trade deadline, then was promptly waived by Oklahoma City. Jamal Murray’s season-ending injury led to Denver offering him a 10-day contract and Rivers soon earned a rest-of-the-season deal. With Will Barton also sidelined by a hamstring injury, Rivers not only finds himself in the rotation but also in the starting lineup. He’s averaging 15.2 PPG over the last five games while draining 19 of 36 3-pointers. The postseason will give Rivers even more chances to attract interest in the free agent market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2021 NBA Draft Dates, Deadlines To Watch

May 11th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still more than two-and-a-half months away from NBA draft day, but before we get to July 29, there are several other important dates and deadlines on the calendar. Here are some of those dates and deadlines worth keeping an eye on:

May 30 (11:59pm ET): Deadline for early entrants to declare for the draft

College players and international early entrants have until the end of the day on May 30 to submit their names into the 2021 NBA draft pool. They can withdraw their names later if they decide they’re not quite ready to go pro, though if college players want to maintain their NCAA eligibility, they must put off hiring an agent who’s not certified by the NCAA.

In a typical year, once the early entrant list is set, NBA teams can begin conducting or attending workouts for those players. However, with COVID-19 still looming as a factor, it’s not clear what form pre-draft workouts will take in 2021.

June 19-21: NBA G League Elite Camp

After having to cancel this event in 2020 due to the pandemic, the NBA will bring it back in 2021.

In 2019, the Elite Camp – having recently been revamped by the NBA – consisted of 40 G League invitees participating in the first half of the event, followed by 40 top draft-eligible players (who weren’t invited to the actual combine) taking part in the second half. It’s unclear if the format will remain the same this year.

June 21-27: NBA draft combine

This week-long event allows NBA teams to get a first-hand look at many of the year’s top draft-eligible players. According to the league, the plan for this year’s combine is to conduct five-on-five games and strength and agility testing, though that’s subject to “evolving public health conditions.”

The combine is often particularly important for early entrants who have yet to decide whether or not to stay in the draft. The feedback they get at the combine could go a long way toward dictating whether they keep their names in the draft or return to school for another year.

June 22: NBA draft lottery (8:30pm ET)

The 2021 draft lottery will be the third one that uses the new format, which was introduced in 2019. With the lottery odds flattened out, the NBA’s worst team will only have a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as opposed to the 25% chance it had prior to ’19.

The new system has provided some excitement during the past two draft lotteries, as five of the eight teams that claimed top-four picks in 2019 and 2020 entered the night without a top-six spot in the lottery standings.

Our reverse standings provide a glimpse at what the pre-lottery draft order could look like.

July 7 (11:59pm): NCAA early entrant withdrawal deadline

College underclassmen (and, this year, seniors) who want to retain their NCAA eligibility will have to withdraw their names from the draft pool by July 7. NBA rules call for a later withdrawal deadline, but the NCAA has its own set of rules that say the deadline is 10 days after the combine.

An early entrant could technically wait until after July 7 to withdraw from the draft and could still retain his NBA draft eligibility for a future year. However, he would forfeit his amateur status in that scenario, making him ineligible to return to his NCAA squad.

July 19 (5:00pm ET): NBA early entrant withdrawal deadline

This is the NBA’s final deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the draft pool and retain their draft eligibility for a future year.

By this point, we generally know whether an NCAA underclassman kept his name in the draft or not, but this is an important deadline for international players, who aren’t subject to the same restrictions as college players. We’ll likely hear about several international early entrants withdrawing from the draft during the days leading up to July 19.

July 29: NBA draft day

The most exciting few weeks of the NBA offseason unofficially get underway on draft day, which is often when some of the first major trades of the summer are completed and we get a sense of which direction certain teams are heading.

It’s also worth noting that the hours and days after the draft ends will be hugely important for many of this year’s draft-eligible prospects — a ton of players who aren’t selected with one of the 60 picks in the draft will reach agreements shortly thereafter to play for an NBA team’s Summer League squad, to attend training camp with a club, or to sign a two-way contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Crowded All-NBA Field Will Impact Several Contract Situations

May 11th, 2021 at 11:02am CST by Luke Adams

When Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer shared his early All-NBA picks this week, he rightly pointed out that limiting the field to 15 players will leave a number of worthy candidates on the outside looking in. O’Connor had to exclude worthy contenders such as Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Jaylen Brown, Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, Jrue Holiday, and Kyrie Irving from his three All-NBA teams.

Among the other players left off the top 15 by O’Connor were Donovan Mitchell, Zach LaVine, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox. Those players are especially notable because an All-NBA spot this season would either substantially increase the value of the contract extensions they signed last offseason or would put them in line for a significantly more lucrative extension this summer.

Jayson Tatum, who earned a spot on O’Connor’s All-NBA Third Team, is in the same boat. Like Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox, he signed a rookie scale extension that includes Rose Rule language, which could bump his starting salary from 25% of the cap to 30% of the cap.

Here are how those players, who signed five-year, maximum-salary contract extensions last offseason, will be affected by whether or not they earn All-NBA honors. These are projected values based on a 3% salary cap increase.

Player	No All-NBA	All-NBA
Donovan Mitchell	$163,000,590	$195,600,710
Jayson Tatum	$163,000,590	$195,600,710
Bam Adebayo	$163,000,590	$185,820,675 (First Team only)
De’Aaron Fox	$163,000,590	$169,522,180 (Third Team) *

* Fox’s deal would be worth $182,560,660 if he makes the All-NBA Second Team and $195,600,710 if he makes the First Team.

Fox probably has no chance at making an All-NBA team, given the competition at guard and the Kings’ spot in the standings. The other three players here have better cases, but Adebayo is likely a long shot, making Mitchell and Tatum the most realistic candidates. They’d only need to sneak onto the Third Team to increase the projected value of their new five-year deals by more than $32MM.

As O’Connor writes, Tatum has a clearer path to an All-NBA spot than Mitchell based on his position. The guard spot is absolutely stacked this season — Mitchell would have to beat out at least one of Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, and James Harden, as well as all the guards mentioned at the top of this story. As good as he’s been, he may be left out.

While Tatum, Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox have already negotiated “super-max” language into their contracts and are now trying to guarantee a salary increase by earning All-NBA honors, a handful of players will become eligible for a higher maximum salary on a new extension if they make an All-NBA team this year. An All-NBA spot would either make them eligible for a Rose Rule extension or a Designated Veteran Extension.

Here are those players, along with the projected contract extension they’d become eligible for with an All-NBA nod. These projections are on the conservative side, since they’re based on annual salary cap increases of just 3%.

Player	Max extension with All-NBA spot	Year it would begin
Nikola Jokic	Five years, $242,098,25	2023/24 *
Joel Embiid	Four years, $187,000,032	2023/24
Zach LaVine	Five years, $235,046,855	2022/23
Luka Doncic	Five years, $201,468,730	2022/23

* Jokic would have to wait until the 2022 offseason to sign a super-max extension. The others could sign extensions during the 2021 offseason.

Embiid is still under contract for two more years beyond 2020/21, which is why he’d only be able to tack on four new years to his current deal instead of five. Jokic is in a similar spot, but because he’ll only have six years of NBA service at the end of this season, he’d have to wait until 2022 to officially sign an extension, at which point he’d be eligible for five new years instead of just four.

Doncic’s potential extension has the lowest average value of any of these hypothetical deals because he’d only be eligible for a starting salary worth 30% of the cap, instead of 35%, due to his limited years of NBA service.

MVP candidates Jokic, Embiid, and Doncic all look like pretty safe bets to make an All-NBA team this spring, and I imagine the Nuggets, Sixers, and Mavericks will be ready to put super-max extension offers on the table for their respective stars as soon as they’re eligible to sign them.

As for LaVine, he likely won’t make an All-NBA team, which may be a relief for the Bulls — deciding whether or not to offer LaVine a standard maximum contract could be a difficult decision in its own right. If he were eligible for a super-max, that would make negotiations even more challenging.

Assuming LaVine doesn’t earn All-NBA honors, he’d only be eligible for a four-year, $104.83MM extension this offseason. However, the Bulls could go higher than that if they renegotiate his 2021/22 salary using their cap room, or if they wait until the 2022 offseason — as a free agent, LaVine would be eligible for a five-year contract worth up to $201.47MM (projection based on 3% annual cap increases) if he re-signs with Chicago, even without All-NBA honors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Lottery Races To Watch During Season’s Final Week

May 10th, 2021 at 2:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.

The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.

With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:

The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot

It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.

Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.

The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.

If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.

The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs

The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).

The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.

While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.

The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.

Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:

#	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–
3	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7	–	–	–
4	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.7	2.2	–	–
5	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.7	0.6	–
6	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.8	20.6	3.7	0.1

When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.

In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”

For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.

Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.

The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot

The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.

Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.

Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.

For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.

Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.

Mid-Level, Bi-Annual Projections For 2021/22

May 9th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Under the NBA’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, the values of various salary cap exceptions like the mid-level and bi-annual were established years in advance, but the league’s current CBA tweaked how those exceptions are calculated.

Rather than being determined ahead of time, the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions – along with several other cap-related figures and exceptions – are dependent on the movement of the salary cap from year to year. If the cap increases by 5% from one league year to the next, the exceptions increase by the same rate.

As such, we don’t know yet exactly what those exceptions will be worth in 2021/22, but we can make an educated estimate. When the NBA updated its salary cap projections last November, the league said the cap would increase by a minimum of 3% and a maximum of 10% in ’21/22.

While that’s a pretty wide range, there’s a general belief that an increase on the lower end (3%) is the most likely outcome, given the projected revenue the league has lost this year due to not being able to fill arenas. If the cap does increase by 3%, the values of the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would increase by 3% too.

Based on a 3% cap increase, here’s what the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would look like in 2021/22:

Mid-Level Exception

Year	Standard MLE	Taxpayer MLE	Room MLE
2021/22	$9,536,000	$5,890,000	$4,910,000
2022/23	$10,012,800	$6,184,500	$5,155,500
2023/24	$10,489,600	$6,479,000	–
2043/25	$10,966,400	–	–
Total	$41,004,800	$18,553,500	$10,065,500

The standard mid-level exception is available to over-the-cap teams that haven’t dipped below the cap to use room and don’t go over the tax apron. It can run for up to four years, with 5% annual raises. Once a team uses the standard/non-taxpayer MLE, that team is hard-capped at the tax apron for the rest of the league year.

The taxpayer mid-level exception is for in-the-tax teams, or teams that want the flexibility to surpass the tax apron later. It can run for up to three years, with 5% annual raises.

The room exception is for teams that go under the cap and use their space. Once they’ve used all their cap room, they can use this version of the mid-level exception, which runs for up to two years with 5% annual raises.

Bi-Annual Exception

Year	BAE Value
2021/22	$3,732,000
2022/23	$3,918,600
Total	$7,650,600

The bi-annual exception – which can be used for contracts up to two years, with a 5% raise after year one – is only available to teams that are over the cap and under the tax apron.

It can also only be used once every two years, which will disqualify the Nuggets, Lakers, and Bucks from using it in 2021/22 — they all used their BAE in 2020/21.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division

May 7th, 2021 at 8:31pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Nemanja Bjelica, Heat, 32, PF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $20.5MM deal in 2018

There was a lot of bellyaching in Sacramento this season when Bjelica’s minutes were basically handed to Marvin Bagley III, as the Kings evaluated whether to make the 2018 No. 2 overall pick part of their long-term plans. Bjelica didn’t play for a month until injuries forced the Kings’ hands in February. He got a fresh start with Miami when it acquired him at the trade deadline. It hasn’t worked out.

Bjelica has been a non-factor while playing spot minutes. His 3-point shooting has tanked without steady playing time and that’s his top asset. Bjelica might wind up back in Europe unless he’s willing to accept a second-unit role at a much lower salary than he’s made the last three seasons.

Daniel Gafford, Wizards, 22, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6.1MM deal in 2019

When NBA analysts look at which trade deadline acquisitions have made the biggest impact, no one would have guessed that Gafford would be at or near the top of the list. He’s limited offensively but on his best nights, he’s a ferocious rebounder and shot-blocker.

Gafford is averaging 10.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 2.0 BPG in 17.9 MPG for a team that has been decimated by frontcourt injuries. His $1.78MM salary for next season doesn’t fully guarantee until next January. The Wizards hold a $1.93MM option on the 2022/23 season. Rest assured, Washington will keep Gafford around.

John Collins, Hawks, 23, PF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $11MM deal in 2017

Collins could be the most intriguing free agent on the market this summer. The Hawks can make him a restricted free agency by extending him a $7.7MM qualifying offer. That’s a safe assumption. From there, things will get very interesting. Collins’ name was bandied about in trade rumors this winter – he reportedly turned down a $90MM extension offer with the hope of getting the max, or something close to it, in restricted free agency. Does any other team value Collins as a max-type player? We’ll find out when the market opens.

James Ennis, Magic, 30, SF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $3.33MM deal in 2020

The Magic brought back Ennis on a one-year deal for a team with playoff aspirations. Ennis was a starter the first half of the season until the front office decided to hit the reset button. With Orlando in total rebuild mode, Ennis will be seeking a new team this summer.

With the Magic focusing on their youth, Ennis hasn’t played this month, supposedly due to a sore calf. He’s passed through seven teams during his seven seasons in the league. Ennis will likely be looking at a one-year, veteran’s minimum deal for a club seeking insurance at small forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: No. 7 Seed In Eastern Conference

May 7th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier in the week, we noted that a fascinating race is shaping up in the 5-7 range of the Western Conference and asked whether you expect the Mavericks, Lakers, or Trail Blazers to finish in the seventh spot, making them subject to at least one play-in game.

While it may not have a narrative as compelling as the defending champions being forced to participate in a play-in tournament, the Eastern Conference is also producing a fascinating race in the 4-7 range.

Currently, the Knicks (37-29) control the No. 4 seed, followed by the Hawks (37-31) at No. 5. The Celtics and Heat are in a dead heat for sixth place, though their 35-31 records mean they’re actually tied with Atlanta in the loss column.

New York and Atlanta were among the Eastern Conference’s bottom-feeders a year ago, whereas Boston and Miami met in the 2020 Eastern Finals and entered the season expecting to be among the top five teams in the conference again. Now it seems very possible that either the Celtics or Heat will finish at No. 7 and host the first play-in game.

Here are the four teams’ remaining schedules:

Knicks: at PHX, at LAC, at LAL, vs. SAS, vs. CHA, vs. BOS (one back-to-back)
Hawks: vs. WSH, vs. WSH, vs. ORL, vs. HOU (one back-to-back)
Celtics: at CHI, vs. MIA, vs. MIA, at CLE, at MIN, at NYK (two back-to-backs)
Heat: vs. MIN, at BOS, at BOS, vs. PHI, at MIL, at DET (one back-to-back)

Although the Knicks have the most room for error, they also have the most challenging schedule of these four Eastern teams, especially if LeBron James and Anthony Davis are available for the Lakers in the final game of that West Coast road trip. The Knicks will finish their season with three games at home, but all three of their opponents in those games will be competing all-out for playoff positioning.

As hot as Washington has been, the Hawks easily have the most favorable remaining schedule of these four teams, with only four games left, including a pair against bottom-five teams in the NBA, Orlando and Houston. They’re in good position to clinch a top-six seed, especially if they win at least once vs. the Wizards.

The two upcoming games between the Celtics and Heat loom large in the race to avoid the play-in. Boston is 1-0 against Miami so far this season and will host both of those games, giving the Celtics the upper hand to clinch the tiebreaker and stay ahead of Pat Riley‘s club in the standings.

The fact that the Heat will follow up those two games vs. the Celtics by playing Philadelphia and Milwaukee while the C’s take on Cleveland and Minnesota further tilts the scales in Boston’s favor, though Jimmy Butler doesn’t sound worried about the Heat’s schedule.

One factor working in the Heat’s favor is that they hold a tiebreaker edge over the Knicks (but not Atlanta). The Celtics, meanwhile, are the only one of the four teams with two back-to-back sets, which may hurt them a little.

What do you think? Will the defending Eastern Conference champs end up in the No. 7 seed, taking part in the play-in tournament, or will they be able to pass one of the teams above them to clinch a top-six spot?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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