Hoops Rumors Originals

The 2020/21 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for July 29 has not yet been set. A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and – of course – the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 60 picks in the 2021 NBA draft look like. But with the 72-game season in the books, there’s plenty we do know.

Let’s dive in and check in on a few key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order…

Tentative lottery standings/odds

So far, only 10 of the 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are known, since the four teams eliminated in the play-in tournament will occupy spots 11 through 14. With the help of data from Tankathon and our own reverse standings, here’s a general idea of what their odds will look like for those top 10 teams:

Because the Thunder and Cavaliers finished with matching 22-50 records and the Kings, Bulls, and Pelicans all tied at 31-41, random tiebreakers will be completed to determine their exact lottery positioning. So their lottery odds, in italics, are just tentative so far.

While those tied teams receive identical odds at landing a top-four pick, regardless of the tiebreaker results, their spot in the lottery standings will affect where they land if they don’t move into the top four.

For instance, the Magic – who own Chicago’s first-rounder if it’s not in the top four – will certainly be rooting for the Bulls to win their tiebreaker over Sacramento and New Orleans. If the Bulls win that tiebreaker, their odds of moving into the top four won’t change, but the pick could be as high as No. 8 if it’s sent to the Magic. Should the Bulls lose that three-team tiebreaker, Orlando couldn’t receive a pick higher than No. 10.

The different colors in the chart above reflect that those teams could lose their picks. The Rockets‘ pick is top-four protected and will be sent to the Thunder if it lands at No. 5. The Timberwolves‘ pick is top-three protected and will go to the Warriors if it falls outside the top three. And, as discussed above, the Magic will receive the Bulls’ pick if it’s outside of the top four.

The play-in factor

The final four spots in the draft lottery will belong to the four teams that are eliminated in this week’s play-in tournament, sorted by record (worst to best). Here are the eight play-in teams:

• San Antonio Spurs (33-39)
• Charlotte Hornets (33-39)
• Indiana Pacers (34-38)
• Washington Wizards (34-38)
• Boston Celtics (36-36)
• Memphis Grizzlies (38-34)
• Golden State Warriors (39-33)
• Los Angeles Lakers (42-30)

Based on their 42-30 record, the Lakers could end up with a pick as low as No. 23 in the first round of the draft (depending on tiebreaker results). However, in the unlikely event that they lose two play-in games this week and don’t make the playoffs at all, they’d hold the No. 14 spot in the lottery instead.

It’s worth noting that the Spurs and Hornets finished with matching 33-39 records, while the Pacers and Wizards were each 34-38, so if both teams in either of those pairs are eliminated in the play-in tournament, a tiebreaker will be required to determine their spots in the lottery standings.

The tiebreakers

Many tiebreakers will be required to determine either lottery positioning or a team’s specific draft pick. Here are all the teams that finished with identical records, creating a situation where a tiebreaker will (or may) be required:

4. Oklahoma City Thunder / Cleveland Cavaliers (22-50)
8. Sacramento Kings / Chicago Bulls / New Orleans Pelicans (31-41)
   • Note: The Bulls’ pick will be sent to the Magic if it falls outside of the top four.
11. San Antonio Spurs / Charlotte Hornets (33-39)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
13. Indiana Pacers / Washington Wizards (34-38)
    • Note: A tiebreaker would not be required if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn’t.
19. New York Knicks / Atlanta Hawks (41-31)
21. Los Angeles Lakers / Portland Trail Blazers / Dallas Mavericks (42-30)
    • Note: The Blazers’ pick will be sent to the Rockets; the Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks.
25. Denver Nuggets / Los Angeles Clippers (47-25)

The traded first-round picks

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for the 2021 NBA draft:

Picks that will change hands:

• Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick (unprotected).
  • This pick will land somewhere in the 21-23 range, depending on the tiebreaker results.
• Thunder acquiring Heat‘s pick (unprotected).
  • This pick will land at either No. 18 or 19. While the Thunder will initially control it, they could end up swapping it for the Rockets’ pick — more details on that are below.
• Rockets acquiring Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
  • This pick will land somewhere in the 21-23 range, depending on the tiebreaker results.
• Rockets acquiring Bucks‘ pick (top-nine protected swap).
  • The Rockets will swap their second-round pick (No. 31) for the Bucks’ first-round pick (No. 24).

Picks that won’t change hands:

• Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘s pick (1-7 and 15-30 protection).
  • This pick will be No. 30, falling in its protected range. The Jazz will instead owe the Grizzlies their 2022 first-round pick (top-six protected).
• Rockets acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-16 protected).
  • This pick will be between 1-6, falling in its protected range. The Pistons will instead owe the Rockets their 2022 first-round pick (top-16 protected).
• Thunder acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected).
  • This pick could theoretically as high as No. 1 and as low as No. 18, depending on the play-in and lottery results. In any scenario, it will be protected, so the Warriors will instead send the Timberwolves’ second-round pick (No. 36) to the Thunder.
• Knicks acquiring Clippers‘ pick (unprotected swap)
  • The Knicks’ pick will land at No. 19 or 20, while the Clippers’ pick will be No. 25 or 26, so the Knicks will hang onto their own first-rounder rather than swapping.
• Rockets acquiring Nets‘ pick (unprotected swap)
  • The Rockets have the ability to swap their own pick, the Trail Blazers’ pick, or the Heat’s pick for the Nets’ pick, but the Nets’ pick will be the lowest (No. 27) of the bunch, so Brooklyn will keep it.

Picks that might change hands:

• Warriors acquiring Timberwolves‘ pick (top-three protected).
  • As detailed above, the Timberwolves will have a 27.6% chance of keeping this pick (in the 1-3 range). The Warriors will have a 72.4% chance of receiving it (No. 4 or in the 6-10 range).
• Magic acquiring Bulls‘ pick (top-four protected).
  • As detailed above, the Bulls will have a 20.2% chance of keeping this pick (in the 1-4 range). The Magic will have a 79.8% chance of receiving it (somewhere in the 8-14 range, depending on tiebreaker results).
• Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick (8-30 protection).
  • In the unlikely event that the Lakers miss the playoffs, they’d still have a 97.6% chance to keep this pick (at No. 14). The Pelicans would have a 2.4% chance of receiving it (in the 1-4 range).
• Thunder acquiring Rockets‘ pick (top-four protected swap)
  • The Thunder will have the ability to swap the Heat’s pick (No. 18 or 19) for the Rockets’ pick if Houston lands at No. 5. There’s a 47.9% chance that happens, and a 52.1% chance the Rockets will land in the top four and keep their pick. If Houston hangs onto its pick, the Thunder would keep Miami’s first-rounder.

We’re still more than two-and-a-half months away from NBA draft day, but before we get to July 29, there are several other important dates and deadlines on the calendar. Here are some of those dates and deadlines worth keeping an eye on:

May 30 (11:59pm ET): Deadline for early entrants to declare for the draft

College players and international early entrants have until the end of the day on May 30 to submit their names into the 2021 NBA draft pool. They can withdraw their names later if they decide they’re not quite ready to go pro, though if college players want to maintain their NCAA eligibility, they must put off hiring an agent who’s not certified by the NCAA.

In a typical year, once the early entrant list is set, NBA teams can begin conducting or attending workouts for those players. However, with COVID-19 still looming as a factor, it’s not clear what form pre-draft workouts will take in 2021.

June 19-21: NBA G League Elite Camp

After having to cancel this event in 2020 due to the pandemic, the NBA will bring it back in 2021.

In 2019, the Elite Camp – having recently been revamped by the NBA – consisted of 40 G League invitees participating in the first half of the event, followed by 40 top draft-eligible players (who weren’t invited to the actual combine) taking part in the second half. It’s unclear if the format will remain the same this year.

June 21-27: NBA draft combine

This week-long event allows NBA teams to get a first-hand look at many of the year’s top draft-eligible players. According to the league, the plan for this year’s combine is to conduct five-on-five games and strength and agility testing, though that’s subject to “evolving public health conditions.”

The combine is often particularly important for early entrants who have yet to decide whether or not to stay in the draft. The feedback they get at the combine could go a long way toward dictating whether they keep their names in the draft or return to school for another year.

June 22: NBA draft lottery (8:30pm ET)

The 2021 draft lottery will be the third one that uses the new format, which was introduced in 2019. With the lottery odds flattened out, the NBA’s worst team will only have a 14% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as opposed to the 25% chance it had prior to ’19.

The new system has provided some excitement during the past two draft lotteries, as five of the eight teams that claimed top-four picks in 2019 and 2020 entered the night without a top-six spot in the lottery standings.

Our reverse standings provide a glimpse at what the pre-lottery draft order could look like.

July 7 (11:59pm): NCAA early entrant withdrawal deadline

College underclassmen (and, this year, seniors) who want to retain their NCAA eligibility will have to withdraw their names from the draft pool by July 7. NBA rules call for a later withdrawal deadline, but the NCAA has its own set of rules that say the deadline is 10 days after the combine.

An early entrant could technically wait until after July 7 to withdraw from the draft and could still retain his NBA draft eligibility for a future year. However, he would forfeit his amateur status in that scenario, making him ineligible to return to his NCAA squad.

July 19 (5:00pm ET): NBA early entrant withdrawal deadline

This is the NBA’s final deadline for early entrants to withdraw their names from the draft pool and retain their draft eligibility for a future year.

By this point, we generally know whether an NCAA underclassman kept his name in the draft or not, but this is an important deadline for international players, who aren’t subject to the same restrictions as college players. We’ll likely hear about several international early entrants withdrawing from the draft during the days leading up to July 19.

July 29: NBA draft day

The most exciting few weeks of the NBA offseason unofficially get underway on draft day, which is often when some of the first major trades of the summer are completed and we get a sense of which direction certain teams are heading.

It’s also worth noting that the hours and days after the draft ends will be hugely important for many of this year’s draft-eligible prospects — a ton of players who aren’t selected with one of the 60 picks in the draft will reach agreements shortly thereafter to play for an NBA team’s Summer League squad, to attend training camp with a club, or to sign a two-way contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.