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Potential 2021 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

May 7th, 2021 at 10:52am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

  • A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
  • A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.

In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.

Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.

Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.

Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.

Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.

Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.

Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).

After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.

Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Lakers, Mavs, Or Blazers In Play-In Tournament?

May 4th, 2021 at 8:00am CST by Luke Adams

The Lakers, Mavericks, and Trail Blazers all consider themselves solid playoff teams and potential contenders, but at least one of them will end up in the Western Conference’s play-in tournament in two weeks. With the Jazz, Suns, Clippers, and Nuggets in total control of the West’s top four seeds, the Lakers, Mavs, and Blazers find themselves vying for the fifth and sixth spots — the No. 7 finisher will host the first play-in game against the No. 8 seed.

After a bad loss at home vs. Toronto on Sunday, the Lakers (37-28) bounced back on Monday, pulling out a tight win over Denver and reclaiming the No. 5 seed for the time being. The Blazers (36-29), on the other hand, dropped into seventh place in the West with a loss in Atlanta, while the Mavs (36-28) had the night off.

With the three teams still separated by a single game, every night the rest of the way will have major postseason implications. Here are their remaining schedules:

  • Lakers: at LAC, at POR, vs. PHX, vs. NYK, vs. HOU, at IND, at NOP (three back-to-backs)
  • Mavs: at MIA, vs. BKN, vs. CLE, at CLE, at MEM, vs. NOP, vs. TOR, at MIN (two back-to-backs)
  • Blazers: at CLE, vs. LAL, vs. SAS, vs. HOU, at UTA, at PHX, vs. DEN (two back-to-backs)

On paper, the Mavericks may have the cleanest path to a top-six seed. After their games against the Heat and Nets this week, they won’t face another team in the top eight of either conference. They also have the advantage of holding the tiebreaker if the three teams finished tied in the standings, since they’ll be the Southwest division winner. If they finish tied with just the Lakers, they’d hold that tiebreaker as well, having gone 2-1 vs. L.A. this season.

The Lakers, currently in control of the No. 5 seed, have a huge week coming up, with games on tap against the Clippers, Blazers, Suns, and Knicks. That contest in Portland, on the second night of a back-to-back, will be particularly important — if the Lakers lose that one, they won’t own the tiebreaker against either the Mavs or the Blazers. Still, if they can at least split their next four games, the Lakers should be in reasonably good shape, as they finish their season against three sub-.500 opponents.

The Blazers, meanwhile, have the opportunity to make a run over the next week, especially if they can beat the Lakers at home. They’ll likely need to win at least three of their next four games to have a decent chance to avoid the play-in, since their season ends with a brutal three-game stretch — in Utah, in Phoenix, and at home vs. Denver. Maybe Portland lucks out and faces a couple of those teams when they’re resting players in advance of the playoffs, but given how close the standings are in the upper half of the West, there’s definitely no guarantee that’ll happen.

What do you think? Which team do you expect to end up with the seventh seed, taking part in the play-in? And do you think that team will be in any danger of losing two consecutive games against the likes of the Warriors, Grizzlies, and Spurs, or should they take care of business relatively quickly?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Check-In On 10-Day Contracts, Open Roster Spots

May 3rd, 2021 at 1:45pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will come to an end on May 16. That means that there are just 14 days left in the season, and just four more days left to sign a player to a 10-day contract. As of this Friday (May 7), a 10-day deal would technically cover the remainder of the season.

With the playoffs around the corner, it makes sense that the number of active 10-day contracts around the NBA has been on the decline. The number of league-wide roster openings is also dwindling.

Here are the 10-day contracts that are currently active:

Of those three players, Brown is the only one who will technically be eligible to sign another 10-day contract when his current pact expires.

Meanwhile, with players like Austin Rivers, Mfiondu Kabengele, Anthony Tolliver, Yogi Ferrell, and Freddie Gillespie signing rest-of-season contracts within the last several days, more and more teams now have full 15-man rosters and may be done making roster moves this season.

The following teams still have at least one open spot on their 15-man squads:

  • Golden State Warriors (2)
  • Miami Heat
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • New York Knicks
  • Portland Trail Blazers
  • San Antonio Spurs
  • Washington Wizards

In addition to these clubs, the Nets, Magic, and Thunder would each have a roster opening if they don’t retain the players on 10-day contracts noted above. The Knicks just opened their 15th roster spot on Sunday night, when Jared Harper‘s 10-day deal expired.

While many of these teams figure to fill their rosters before the regular season ends – either with a developmental prospect or one more veteran for postseason depth – the Warriors are the only club here that must add at least one more player. Teams are only permitted to dip below 14 players on standard contracts for up to two weeks at a time. Since Golden State was carrying Gary Payton II on a 10-day deal up until last Thursday, they’ll have until next Thursday (May 13) to re-add a 14th man.

The following teams also have an open two-way contract slot, which they may or may not fill during the season’s final two weeks:

  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • New York Knicks
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Toronto Raptors
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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Non-Bird Rights

April 30th, 2021 at 1:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Players and teams have to meet certain criteria to earn Bird rights and Early Bird rights, but Non-Bird rights are practically a given. They apply to a player who has spent a single season or less with his team, as long as he finishes the season on an NBA roster. Even a player who signs on the last day of the regular season and spends just one day with his club would have Non-Bird rights in the offseason.

Teams can also claim Non-Bird rights on Early Bird free agents if they renounce them. The primary motivator to do so would be to allow the team to sign the free agent to a one-year contract, a move that’s not permitted via Early Bird rights.

Teams are eligible to sign their own free agents using the Non-Bird exception for a salary starting at 120% of the player’s previous salary, 120% of the minimum salary, or the amount of a qualifying offer (if the player is a restricted free agent), whichever is greatest. Contracts can be for up to four years, with 5% annual raises.

The cap hold for a Non-Bird player is 120% of his previous salary, unless the previous salary was the minimum. In that case, the cap hold is equivalent to the two-year veteran’s minimum salary. If a Non-Bird free agent only has one year of NBA experience, his cap hold is equivalent to the one-year veteran’s minimum salary.

The salary limitations that apply to Non-Bird rights are more severe than those pertaining to Bird rights or Early Bird rights, so in many cases, the Non-Bird exception may not be enough to retain a well-regarded free agent. For instance, the Sixers held Alec Burks‘s Non-Bird rights last summer, but couldn’t have used them to match or exceed the offer the veteran wing received from the Knicks.

Because Burks had been on a minimum-salary contract in 2019/20, Philadelphia’s ability to offer a raise using the Non-Bird exception was extremely limited — the 76ers would have only been able to offer 120% of the veteran’s minimum using his Non-Bird rights, whereas the Knicks’ $6MM offer easily topped that. If they’d badly wanted to retain Burks, the 76ers would have had to use cap room or another exception to make a competitive offer.

The Lakers will be in a similar situation this offseason with Andre Drummond, who will only have Non-Bird rights. If L.A. wants to retain Drummond, the team will have to use cap room or its mid-level exception to make its best offer, since they’ll be limited to a starting salary in the $3MM range via the Non-Bird exception.

Holding Non-Bird rights on a free agent didn’t really help the Sixers with Burks and it won’t help the Lakers with Drummond, but there are cases in which the exception proves useful.

For instance, the Clippers only had Non-Bird rights on Marcus Morris last offseason, but because his ’19/20 salary was $15MM, Los Angeles was able to offer a starting salary worth any amount up to $18MM (120% of his previous salary). That gave the club plenty of flexibility to re-sign Morris without using cap room or another exception — he received a four-year, $64MM contract.

Another deal completed by the Clippers in November provides an example of a team using Non-Bird rights on a minimum-salary player. Patrick Patterson, whose minimum salary would have been $2,564,753 in 2020/21, was eligible to sign for up to 120% of that amount via the Non-Bird exception. As such, his one-year deal with Los Angeles is worth $3,077,704.

Finally, it’s worth noting that a player who re-signs with his previous team on a one-year deal and will have Early Bird or Bird rights at the end of that contract would surrender those rights if he consents to a trade. In that scenario, he’d only finish the season with Non-Bird rights.

This happened to James Ennis in 2020, when he agreed to a trade that sent him from Philadelphia to Orlando. Ennis would have had Early Bird rights if he had finished the season with the Sixers, but allowing the trade meant he only had Non-Bird rights during the 2020 offseason. As a result, the Magic had to use a portion of their mid-level exception to re-sign him to a one-year, $3.3MM deal that could’ve otherwise been completed with the Early Bird exception.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: NBA Coach Of The Year Frontrunner

April 30th, 2021 at 9:32am CST by Luke Adams

In his latest piece for The Athletic, Joe Vardon makes the case that the NBA’s Coach of the Year race for the 2020/21 season should focus on New York City. In Vardon’s view, the choice for the winner ought to come down to Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau and Nets coach Steve Nash.

As Vardon writes, Thibodeau has exceeded expectations in his first year at the helm with the Knicks, taking a roster that doesn’t look drastically different from last year’s 21-45 squad and turning it into a legit playoff team (35-28 so far). Prior to the season, oddsmakers put the Knicks’ over/under at 22.5 wins — and Hoops Rumors voters took the under.

Thibodeau has Julius Randle playing the best basketball of his career and has succeeded this season despite missing Mitchell Robinson for a significant chunk of the year and not getting much from several of the Knicks’ recent lottery picks, including Obi Toppin, Frank Ntilikina, and Kevin Knox.

Nash, meanwhile, has way more talent on his roster than Thibodeau does, but superstars Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving have rarely all been healthy at the same time, appearing in just seven games together. Nash has often had to cobble together a rotation that’s missing several players – including one or two of those stars and veteran guard Spencer Dinwiddie – but Brooklyn still holds the top seed in the Eastern Conference at 43-20.

Although Thibodeau and Nash are legit candidates for Coach of the Year recognition, neither one cracked the top two of Zach Harper’s most recent ballot at The Athletic. Harper’s current pick for the award is Suns head coach Monty Williams.

Williams’ Suns were 26-39 entering bubble play last summer, but went 8-0 at Walt Disney World and parlayed that late-season success into an impressive 2020/21 showing — the club currently has the NBA’s second-best record at 44-18. While Devin Booker and Chris Paul have had great seasons, Phoenix lacks a traditional, Finals-tested superstar like LeBron James or Kawhi Leonard, making the team’s performance in a tough Western Conference all the more impressive.

Second on Harper’s ballot is Quin Snyder, the one head coach whose team has a better record than Williams’ Suns. The Jazz hold the No. 1 seed in the West with a 45-17 mark and have already exceeded their 2019/20 win total in 10 fewer games.

No team has had a stronger season from start to finish than Utah, which hasn’t relinquished that top seed in the conference for a single day since February 2, despite the fact that many of this year’s MVP ballots likely won’t include a single Jazz player.

Sixers head coach Doc Rivers also deserves consideration for Coach of the Year honors. He may not be a frontrunner for the award, but Rivers will certainly receive some votes for leading Philadelphia to a 41-21 record and the No. 2 seed in the East so far, even with team MVP Joel Embiid unavailable for about a third of the club’s games.

Hawks coach Nate McMillan has earned a honorable mention as well, having led Atlanta to a 20-9 record since Lloyd Pierce‘s dismissal. He’ll only end up coaching 38 games though — as is the case with MVP and other awards, I wouldn’t expect voters to give serious consideration to a candidate who was only “active” for about half the season.

What do you think? With just over two weeks left in the 2020/21 regular season, who do you think should be the frontrunner for the Coach of the Year award?

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Hoops Rumors Seeking Part-Time Writer

April 30th, 2021 at 8:18am CST by Luke Adams

We’re looking to add a part-time contributor to the Hoops Rumors writing team. The position pays on an hourly basis. Applicants must meet the following criteria:

  • Exceptional knowledge of all 30 NBA teams, with no discernible bias. We want you to be as comfortable writing about Mamadi Diakite and Juwan Morgan as you would be writing about LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
  • Knowledge of the NBA’s salary cap, collective bargaining agreement, and transaction-related concepts.
  • Strong weeknight and weekend availability, with the ability to work at least two regular shifts per week. Flexibility to work on short notice and/or on weekdays is a plus.
  • Extensive writing experience, with professional experience and a background in journalism both preferred.
  • Keen understanding of journalistic principles, ethics, and procedures. Completion of basic college-level journalism classes is preferred.
  • Attention to detail and an ability to self-edit.
  • Ability to follow Hoops Rumors’ style and tone.
  • Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news in a few paragraphs. We need someone who can balance quick writing with thoughtful analysis. You must be able to add value to breaking news with your own insight, numbers, or links to other relevant articles.
  • Ability to use Twitter, TweetDeck, and WordPress.

If you’re interested, please email hoopsrumorsparttimers@gmail.com by Friday, May 7 (4:00pm central time) and include the following:

  • A few paragraphs to explain why you qualify and stand out.
  • A description of your availability going forward.
  • At least one or two writing samples. NBA-related pieces are preferred, but not mandatory.

Many will likely apply, so unfortunately we may not be able to respond to every applicant.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Early Bird Rights

April 29th, 2021 at 12:43pm CST by Luke Adams

Bird rights offer teams the chance to sign their own free agents without regard to the salary cap, but they don’t apply to every player. Other salary cap exceptions are available for teams to keep players who don’t qualify for Bird rights. One such exception is the Early Bird, which applies to players formally known as Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agents.

While the Bird exception is for players who have spent three seasons with one club without changing teams as a free agent, Early Bird rights are earned after just two such seasons. Virtually all of the same rules that apply to Bird rights apply to Early Bird rights, with the requirements condensed to two years rather than three. Players still see their Bird clocks restart by changing teams via free agency, being claimed in an expansion draft, or having their rights renounced.

As is the case with Bird rights, a player’s clock stops when he’s released by a team and clears waivers, but it would pick up where it left off if he re-signs with that same team down the road without joining another club in the interim. For instance, if Glenn Robinson III – released by the Kings earlier this season before the end of his one-year contract – were to sign a new one-year deal with Sacramento during the 2021 offseason, the team would have his Early Bird rights in the 2022 offseason.

The crucial difference between Bird rights and Early Bird rights involves the limitations on contract offers. Bird players can receive maximum-salary deals for up to five years, while the most a team can offer an Early Bird free agent without using cap space is 175% of his previous salary (up to the max) or 105% of the league-average salary in the previous season, whichever is greater.

These offers are also capped at four years rather than five, and the new contracts must run for at least two years — the second year can be non-guaranteed, but can’t be a team or player option.

Richaun Holmes (Kings), Danny Green (Sixers), Derrick Rose (Knicks), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), and Enes Kanter (Trail Blazers) are among the most notable free agents who will have Early Bird rights at the end of the 2020/21 season.

In some instances, teams can benefit from having Early Bird rights instead of full Bird rights if they’re trying to preserve cap space. The cap hold for an Early Bird player is 130% of his previous salary, significantly less than most Bird players, whose cap holds range from 150-300% of their previous salaries.

That could help a team like the Knicks, who project to have cap space in the 2021 offseason. The cap hold for Rose, who is earning $7.68MM this season, will be a shade under $10MM. His starting salary on a new deal could be higher than that.

If the Knicks reach an agreement to re-sign Rose near the start of free agency, they could wait to make it official, keeping his cap hold on the books until they use the rest of their cap room, maximizing that space. Then they could go over the cap to finalize Rose’s deal using the Early Bird exception.

However, having a player’s Early Bird rights instead of his full Bird rights puts a team at a disadvantage in other cases. For instance, when Christian Wood reached free agency last offseason, his Early Bird rights only allowed the Pistons to offer a starting salary of up to about $10.05MM, a figure the Rockets topped in their three-year, $41MM offer.

In order to match or exceed that number, Detroit would have had to use cap room — having Wood’s full Bird rights would’ve allowed the Pistons to make a far more substantial offer without cap space. The Kings could find themselves in a similar dilemma with Holmes this summer.

Meanwhile, some players with limited NBA experience are subject to a special wrinkle involving Early Bird rights, called the Gilbert Arenas Provision, which applies to players who have only been in the league for one or two years. We cover the Arenas Provision in a separate glossary entry, so you can read up on the details there. It would apply this offseason to a player like Lakers wing Talen Horton-Tucker.

Finally, one more distinction between Bird rights and Early Bird rights applies to waivers. Players who are claimed off waivers retain their Early Bird rights, just as they would if they were traded. Those who had Bird rights instead see those reduced to Early Bird rights if they’re claimed off waivers. This rule stems from a 2012 settlement between the league and the union in which J.J. Hickson was given a special exception and retained his full Bird rights for the summer of 2012 even though he had been claimed off waivers that March.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020/21 NBA Reverse Standings Update

April 28th, 2021 at 8:14am CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2020/21 NBA season, Hoops Rumors is maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on the tentative 2021 draft order. Our 2020/21 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, is updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.

Our Reverse Standings are essentially a reflection of what 2021’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. We’ve noted each club’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, based on the league’s current lottery format.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Draft Lottery]

In instances where two non-playoff teams or two playoff teams have identical records, the order in our standings isn’t necessarily definitive — for draft purposes, the NBA breaks ties via random drawings, so those drawings would happen at the end of the year.

Of course, the 14 non-playoff teams all draft before the 16 playoff teams, even if some non-playoff teams have better records than those that made the postseason. Our reverse standings account for playoff seeding, though for now they assume that the Nos. 7 and 8 teams in each conference will earn those final two postseason spots. Since the NBA’s new play-in format opens the door for the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds to sneak into the postseason, we may have to account for a little movement in the draft order at season’s end.

Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For example, the note next to Portland’s pick says the Trail Blazers will send their pick to the Rockets if it’s not in the top 14. As of today, the Blazers’ pick projects to be 19th, meaning Houston would receive it.

Those same Rockets are currently in the driver’s seat at the “top” of our reverse standings — their current 4-37 run has dropped their overall record to 15-47, giving them a comfortable 3.5-game “lead” over the league’s next-worst teams, the Magic (18-43) and Timberwolves (19-44).

The league’s bottom three teams will all have an equal chance at the No. 1 overall pick (14.0%) and a top-four selection (52.1%), and the Rockets and Wolves will be especially invested in claiming one of those top lottery positions. Minnesota will send its first-round pick to Golden State if it falls outside of the top three, while Houston will have to swap its own pick for a lesser first-rounder (Miami’s) if it lands outside of the top four.

The Thunder, currently fifth in the lottery standings at 21-41, will also be worth watching closely on lottery night, since they control that Miami pick and the potential Rockets swap. The Thunder’s dream scenario would be moving into the top four themselves, bumping out Houston and claiming a pair of top-five picks.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protections will be changing hands in 2021. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!

Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.

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Poll: Which Team Will Represent West In 2021 NBA Finals?

April 27th, 2021 at 11:27am CST by Luke Adams

On Monday, we asked which team you expect to win the Eastern Conference in 2021. As of this writing, the Nets have received about 40% of the vote, easily besting the runner-up Bucks (23%). Those results aren’t surprising — the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag have made Brooklyn the clear favorite to win the conference and represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals.

In the West, however, there’s not really a clear frontrunner. The defending-champion Lakers (36-25) still have the best odds, per BetOnline, but L.A. has only won eight of its last 20 games, having had to play for several weeks without injured stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James.

While Davis is back now and James should be soon, the Lakers have slipped to fifth in the Western standings, four games back of the fourth-seeded Nuggets. That means their path to the Finals could involve road series against Denver, Utah, and either the Suns or Clippers. That won’t be an easy road, even if AD and LeBron stay healthy and look like their usual selves.

The Clippers (43-20) and Jazz (44-17) are considered the next-best bets to win the West. After a disappointing showing in the 2020 postseason, the Clips should be a tougher out in 2021. Kawhi Leonard is a two-time Finals MVP, Paul George has played some of his best basketball in recent weeks (30.2 PPG on .503/.427/.920 shooting in his last nine games), and Rajon Rondo has been a perfect fit in the team’s rotation so far.

Utah, meanwhile, owns the NBA’s best record, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert, leading scorer Donovan Mitchell, and a pair of Sixth Man of the Year contenders (Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles). The Jazz lack a superstar wing like LeBron or Kawhi, but this is a deep, talented club that is capable of winning multiple playoff series.

The Suns (43-18) are currently the No. 2 seed in the West, and while they haven’t made the postseason since 2010, they’ve proven this season that they can hang with the NBA’s top teams. Their duo of Chris Paul and Devin Booker has been the conference’s best backcourt this season, complemented by key role players like Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Jae Crowder.

The Nuggets, unfortunately, look like far less of a threat to make the Finals without Jamal Murray (torn ACL) available. But they’ve only lost once in seven games since Murray went down, as MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic has kept rolling and Michael Porter Jr. (25.7 PPG on .591/.544/.826 shooting in his last seven games) has stepped up to fill the scoring void that Murray’s injury created.

Some teams outside of the West’s top five, including the Mavericks, Trail Blazers, and Warriors, could make some noise in the playoffs if their respective stars get hot at the right time, but none is better than a 25-to-1 shot to come out of the West this season, according to BetOnline.

What do you think? Will the Lakers repeat as Western champs, or will a team with home court advantage get the best of them? Which team do you expect will represent the West in the 2021 NBA Finals?

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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