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Throughout the 2020/21 NBA season, Hoops Rumors is maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on the tentative 2021 draft order. Our 2020/21 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, is updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.
Our Reverse Standings are essentially a reflection of what 2021’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. We’ve noted each club’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, based on the league’s current lottery format.
[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Draft Lottery]
In instances where two non-playoff teams or two playoff teams have identical records, the order in our standings isn’t necessarily definitive — for draft purposes, the NBA breaks ties via random drawings, so those drawings would happen at the end of the year.
Of course, the 14 non-playoff teams all draft before the 16 playoff teams, even if some non-playoff teams have better records than those that made the postseason. Our reverse standings account for playoff seeding, though for now they assume that the Nos. 7 and 8 teams in each conference will earn those final two postseason spots. Since the NBA’s new play-in format opens the door for the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds to sneak into the postseason, we may have to account for a little movement in the draft order at season’s end.
Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For example, the note next to Portland’s pick says the Trail Blazers will send their pick to the Rockets if it’s not in the top 14. As of today, the Blazers’ pick projects to be 19th, meaning Houston would receive it.
Those same Rockets are currently in the driver’s seat at the “top” of our reverse standings — their current 4-37 run has dropped their overall record to 15-47, giving them a comfortable 3.5-game “lead” over the league’s next-worst teams, the Magic (18-43) and Timberwolves (19-44).
The league’s bottom three teams will all have an equal chance at the No. 1 overall pick (14.0%) and a top-four selection (52.1%), and the Rockets and Wolves will be especially invested in claiming one of those top lottery positions. Minnesota will send its first-round pick to Golden State if it falls outside of the top three, while Houston will have to swap its own pick for a lesser first-rounder (Miami’s) if it lands outside of the top four.
The Thunder, currently fifth in the lottery standings at 21-41, will also be worth watching closely on lottery night, since they control that Miami pick and the potential Rockets swap. The Thunder’s dream scenario would be moving into the top four themselves, bumping out Houston and claiming a pair of top-five picks.
Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protections will be changing hands in 2021. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!
Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.
On Monday, we asked which team you expect to win the Eastern Conference in 2021. As of this writing, the Nets have received about 40% of the vote, easily besting the runner-up Bucks (23%). Those results aren’t surprising — the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag have made Brooklyn the clear favorite to win the conference and represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals.
In the West, however, there’s not really a clear frontrunner. The defending-champion Lakers (36-25) still have the best odds, per BetOnline, but L.A. has only won eight of its last 20 games, having had to play for several weeks without injured stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
While Davis is back now and James should be soon, the Lakers have slipped to fifth in the Western standings, four games back of the fourth-seeded Nuggets. That means their path to the Finals could involve road series against Denver, Utah, and either the Suns or Clippers. That won’t be an easy road, even if AD and LeBron stay healthy and look like their usual selves.
The Clippers (43-20) and Jazz (44-17) are considered the next-best bets to win the West. After a disappointing showing in the 2020 postseason, the Clips should be a tougher out in 2021. Kawhi Leonard is a two-time Finals MVP, Paul George has played some of his best basketball in recent weeks (30.2 PPG on .503/.427/.920 shooting in his last nine games), and Rajon Rondo has been a perfect fit in the team’s rotation so far.
Utah, meanwhile, owns the NBA’s best record, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert, leading scorer Donovan Mitchell, and a pair of Sixth Man of the Year contenders (Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles). The Jazz lack a superstar wing like LeBron or Kawhi, but this is a deep, talented club that is capable of winning multiple playoff series.
The Suns (43-18) are currently the No. 2 seed in the West, and while they haven’t made the postseason since 2010, they’ve proven this season that they can hang with the NBA’s top teams. Their duo of Chris Paul and Devin Booker has been the conference’s best backcourt this season, complemented by key role players like Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Jae Crowder.
The Nuggets, unfortunately, look like far less of a threat to make the Finals without Jamal Murray (torn ACL) available. But they’ve only lost once in seven games since Murray went down, as MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic has kept rolling and Michael Porter Jr. (25.7 PPG on .591/.544/.826 shooting in his last seven games) has stepped up to fill the scoring void that Murray’s injury created.
Some teams outside of the West’s top five, including the Mavericks, Trail Blazers, and Warriors, could make some noise in the playoffs if their respective stars get hot at the right time, but none is better than a 25-to-1 shot to come out of the West this season, according to BetOnline.
What do you think? Will the Lakers repeat as Western champs, or will a team with home court advantage get the best of them? Which team do you expect will represent the West in the 2021 NBA Finals?
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Since the NBA’s 10-day signing window for the 2020/21 season officially opened in February, a total of 54 separate 10-day deals have been finalized. Many of those signings have be completed since the trade deadline passed a month ago — 36 10-day contracts have been signed in April alone.
With so much action on the 10-day market, we’re taking a little time today to check in on the 10-day deals that are still active, exploring which of those players are eligible for additional 10-day contracts and which teams are still shuttling players in and out of their back-end roster spots.
Here, with the help of our 10-day tracker and our roster counts page, are the players on active 10-day deals:
Players on their first 10-day contracts:
These players will all be eligible for a second 10-day contract once their current deals expire. In the case of Brown, it’s possible the Thunder would just sign him to a rest-of-season deal if they’re comfortable keeping him around, since a second 10-day deal would run through at least May 14. The regular season ends on May 16.
Players on their second 10-day contracts:
These players won’t be eligible for a new 10-day contract when their current deals expire, since a player can’t sign three 10-day deals with the same team in a single season. It’s a safe bet that some of these players will receive rest-of-season contracts though — I’d be shocked if the Raptors let Gillespie get away, for instance.
Any team here that opts not to re-sign a player to a rest-of-season contract would open up a roster spot, which could be used on another 10-day trial before the regular season ends. Golden State and Portland are carrying just 14 players at the moment, so they’d have each two open roster spots if they don’t re-sign Payton and Hollis-Jefferson, respectively.
There are a handful of other teams that could still take advantage of the 10-day contract before the end of the season. The Heat, Timberwolves, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, and Wizards all have at least one open roster spot.
The Heat and Pelicans are right up against the luxury tax line and may be done with 10-days for the season, preferring rest-of-season commitments if and when they fill their roster openings. The Wolves, Spurs, and Wizards may end up going that route too, but for now they’re still decent candidates for 10-day signings.
The Kings, meanwhile, had Damian Jones on a pair of 10-day contracts before his second deal expired on Monday night. Head coach Luke Walton spoke positively about Jones’ contributions to the team, as Jason Anderson of The Sacramento Bee relays (via Twitter), so the veteran center could end up getting a rest-of-season contract. If so, Sacramento would have a full roster and would likely be done with 10-days for the season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Bird exception, named after Larry Bird, is a rule included in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement that allows teams to go over the salary cap to re-sign their own players. A player who qualifies for the Bird exception, formally referred to as a Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, is said to have “Bird rights.”
The most basic way for a player to earn Bird rights is to play for the same team for at least three seasons, either on a long-term deal or on separate one- or two-year contracts. Still, there are other criteria. A player retains his Bird rights in the following scenarios:
He changes teams via trade. For instance, the Celtics will hold Evan Fournier‘s Bird rights when he reaches free agency this offseason, despite just acquiring him in March. His Bird clock didn’t reset when he was traded from Orlando to Boston.A player sees the clock on his Bird rights reset to zero in the following scenarios:
If a player who would have been in line for Bird rights at the end of the season is waived and claimed off waivers, he would retain only Early Bird rights. Meanwhile, a player with Bird rights who re-signs with his previous team on a one-year contract (or a one-year deal with a second-year option) would lose his Bird rights if he’s traded. As such, he receives the ability to veto trades so he can avoid that scenario.
[RELATED: Players with the ability to veto trades in 2020/21]
When a player earns Bird rights, he’s eligible to re-sign with his team for up to five years and for any price up to his maximum salary (with 8% annual raises) when he becomes a free agent, regardless of how much cap room the team has. The maximum salary varies from player to player depending on how long he has been in the league, but regardless of the precise amount, a team can exceed the salary cap to complete the deal.
A team with a Bird free agent is assigned a “free agent amount” or cap hold worth either 190% of his previous salary (for a player with a below-average salary) or 150% of his previous salary (for an above-average salary), up to the maximum salary amount. For players coming off rookie scale contracts, the amounts of those cap holds are 300% and 250%, respectively.
The Hawks, for instance, will have a cap hold worth $12,411,906 for John Collins on their 2021/22 books — 300% of his $4,137,302 salary for ’20/21. Atlanta could renounce Collins and generate an extra $12MM+ in cap flexibility, but the Hawks would then lose the ability to re-sign him using Bird rights, which would force them to use either cap room or a different cap exception to re-sign him. As such, it’s a safe bet that Atlanta will keep Collins’ cap hold on its books until his free agency is resolved.
Ultimately, the Bird exception was designed to allow teams to keep their best players. The CBA ensures that teams are always able to re-sign them to contracts up to the maximum salary, assuming the player is interested in returning and his team is willing to go over the cap.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.
Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The top tier of the Eastern Conference has been clearly defined for months, as the Nets, Sixers, and Bucks separated themselves from the rest of the pack in the first half and have maintained that cushion for most of the 2020/21 season. With the postseason fast approaching, those three clubs look like the best bets to come out of the conference and represent the East in the 2021 NBA Finals.
Brooklyn is the odds-on favorite to win the East at this point. The Nets have had all three of their stars – Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving – healthy and available just seven times this season, but they still sit atop the conference standings with a 41-20 record. If they can play this well with just one or two of their stars on the court, it’s a reasonable assumption that the Nets will be an even tougher out in the playoffs once they have all three back.
Still, while Durant, Harden, and Irving are all expected to be ready to go for the postseason, that’s certainly not a lock. Durant has been limited to just 25 games as he has dealt with various injuries this season, Harden recently experienced a setback in his recovery from a hamstring strain, and Irving has a long history of health issues. Even if all three stars are available, their lack of minutes together to date could result in some growing pains when the stakes are highest. And Brooklyn’s 24th-ranked defense could be a concern in the postseason too.
The Sixers, at 39-21, currently hold the No. 2 seed in the East, and will also be counting on good health luck once the playoffs get underway. When he has been on the court, Joel Embiid has played like an MVP this season, but his injury history is a concern. While Ben Simmons is a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate and Tobias Harris is having perhaps his best season as a pro, the Sixers’ ceiling hinges on Embiid’s availability.
The Bucks, meanwhile, have flown somewhat under the radar this season after leading the NBA in wins for two consecutive years. At 37-23, they appear to be focused less on piling up regular season victories and more about preparing for the postseason. With Jrue Holiday now in the mix, the Bucks – who are the only one of the East’s top three teams with both an offensive and defensive rating in the NBA’s top 10 – have a more versatile and more dangerous closing lineup than they’ve had in recent years.
According to the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag, no other Eastern team is better than a 16-to-1 shot to come out of the conference. Still, it’s worth keeping an eye on some of the dark horses, since we saw the fifth-seeded Heat knock off three higher seeds in last year’s playoffs to make the Finals.
This year’s Heat have a pretty similar roster, but they’re currently ranked just seventh in the East at 32-29, putting them in position for a play-in spot. They have the same record as the No. 6 Celtics, the team Miami beat in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. The C’s have underachieved a little this season, but if Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kemba Walker are all clicking at the same time, they can hold their own against just about any team.
While Miami and Boston are more battle-tested in the postseason, they’re currently trailing the upstart Knicks and Hawks, who rank fourth and fifth in the Eastern standings. The two 34-27 squads are among the hottest teams in the league — New York has won nine straight games while Atlanta has won 20 of its last 27. Neither club has a ton of playoff experience, but if they can hang onto their current spots in the standings, at least one of them will make the second round.
What do you think? Which team do you expect to represent the Eastern Conference in this year’s NBA Finals?
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Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Central Division:
Frank Jackson, Pistons, 22, SG/PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, two-way ($449K) deal in 2020
An early second-round pick in 2017, Jackson was a rotation player with the Pelicans for two seasons after missing his first year with a foot injury. New Orleans let him walk in the offseason and the Thunder cut him in training camp, but Jackson has revived his career on a two-way contract with the Pistons.
Rather than playing the point, Jackson has thrived in an off-the-ball role under Dwane Casey. He has scored 14 or more points in six of the last eight games, including a go-ahead basket in the final minute against Cleveland on Monday.
It seems a good bet that Jackson, who has dramatically improved his 3-point shooting, will receive a qualifying offer from Detroit’s front office and become a restricted free agent this summer.
Denzel Valentine, Bulls, 27, SF/SG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $4.64MM deal in 2020
Valentine is one of those low-turnover, glue guys that coaches feel comfortable putting on the floor but who doesn’t dent the stat sheet. He has been in Billy Donovan’s rotation most of the season but his shooting numbers remain subpar (38.4% overall, 33.0% from deep). Valentine signed his qualifying offer to stay in Chicago after an unspectacular 2019/20 season. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer and will likely be looking at offers below the QO he inked in the fall. Chicago’s late lottery pick in 2016 might benefit from a change of scenery.
Doug McDermott, Pacers, 29, SF/PF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $22MM deal in 2018
Dougie McBuckets is one of the cooler nicknames in the league and for much of the season, he’s lived up to it. Currently dealing with an ankle sprain, McDermott is averaging a career-high 12.9 PPG and 3.6 RPG. He’s been more than just a long-range gunner, as 56% of his shot attempts have come from inside the arc. A career 40.7% shooter from deep, McDermott has been a solid rotation player for Indiana since the club signed him to a three-year deal three years ago. He’ll return to unrestricted free agency this summer and could be looking at similar offers.
Bryn Forbes, Bucks, 27, SG, (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $4.79MM deal in 2020
Forbes started the past two seasons in San Antonio but he’s probably best suited in his current role as a second-unit scorer with Milwaukee. Forbes is averaging 9.6 PPG in 19.3 MPG while making a career-best 43.7% of his 3-point attempts. He’ll have an interesting decision this summer, as he holds a $2.45MM option on his contract for next season. If Forbes remains in the rotation and performs well in the postseason, the undrafted guard out of Michigan State will position himself to nix that option in order to pursue multiyear offers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
It has been nearly a month since the NBA’s trade deadline passed, but we’ve still seen a flurry of transactional activity during the last four weeks, as teams have signed and waived players ahead of the postseason.
While some clubs have full rosters and seem unlikely to make any changes between now and the end of the regular season, that’s certainly not the case across the board.
With the help of our roster counts tracker, here’s our latest look at open roster spots around the league, as of April 22:
Teams with one or more open 15-man roster spots:
The Heat, Timberwolves, Knicks, and Spurs each have 14 players on standard contracts and one opening on their 15-man rosters. They’re all good bets to sign a 15th man before the season ends, either for developmental purposes or for added postseason depth.
The Warriors and Trail Blazers have 13 players apiece on standard deals, one on a 10-day contract – Gary Payton II for Golden State and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson for Portland – and one open spot. Hollis-Jefferson’s 10-day pact runs through next Tuesday, while Payton’s goes through Wednesday. Once those deals expire, the Warriors and Blazers will each have up to two weeks to get back to 14 players.
Since the NBA only allows teams to dip to 13 or fewer players for up to two weeks at a time, the Pelicans are very much on the clock. They’ve been at 13 players for the last nine days, since Isaiah Thomas‘ 10-day contract expired. The expectation is that New Orleans will sign draft-and-stash prospect Didi Louzada as a 14th man by early next week.
Teams whose 15-man rosters are full due to one or more 10-day contracts:
These 10 teams have full 15-man rosters as of today, but that might not last long. The dozen 10-day contracts listed here will begin expiring as soon as tonight (Hall), so if those players aren’t re-signed, the clubs will have roster openings.
The Nets will also fall into this group once they officially waive LaMarcus Aldridge and sign Mike James to a 10-day deal.
Teams with an open two-way contract slot:
The Suns have only carried a single two-way player all season long, so there’s no guarantee they’ll fill their second slot before the end of the regular season.
The other teams listed here are all better candidates to do so — Cleveland (Lamar Stevens) and Toronto (Yuta Watanabe) just recently promoted two-way players to their respective 15-man rosters, while Minnesota was carrying a pair of two-way players until waiving Ashton Hagans in February.
The Cavs reportedly intend to sign Jeremiah Martin to fill their two-way opening.
The last time we saw the Suns play a postseason game, LeBron James had yet to leave Cleveland for Miami, and players like Paul George, John Wall, Gordon Hayward, and DeMarcus Cousins were still weeks away from being drafted.
Phoenix is set to snap its streak of 10 straight lottery seasons next month, however. The team currently holds an impressive 42-16 record, good for second-best in the entire NBA, just a game-and-a-half behind the top-seeded Jazz.
Still, that long playoff drought is one reason why fans and experts alike have been slow to come around on the idea of the Suns as a legit title contender. It’s rare for an NBA team to go from the lottery one year to the Finals the next.
The Suns also won’t have an easy path once the postseason begins. Luka Doncic and the Mavericks could await them in the first round, with teams like the Jazz, Clippers, and the defending-champion Lakers looming as potential second- or third-round opponents. As such, most observers aren’t expecting a Finals run from Phoenix, as A. Sherrod Blakely writes for Bleacher Report.
“They’re a good story. The league needs a few good stories, you know? But I just don’t see them coming out of the West,” one Western Conference executive told Blakely. “They’ll be a tough out for whoever they face; no doubt. But I just don’t see them getting past either one of the L.A. teams. You can’t come out of the West and not see one of them along the way.”
All-Star point guard Chris Paul and forward Jae Crowder have added some veteran know-how to a core led by rising star Devin Booker, but some people around the league are still concerned about the relative youth of the team, which features second-year wing Cameron Johnson and third-year players Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges in key roles. Even Booker has yet to appear in a single postseason contest.
“There’s growing pains that most teams go through before they break through unless you got LeBron James playing for you,” an Eastern Conference scout told Bleacher Report. “It feels like they’re a step or two away from being ready to really, really compete for it all.”
While it’s possible the Suns’ lack of playoff experience could doom them at some point this spring, this isn’t a typical NBA season, with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to wreak havoc on the usual schedule and teams’ normal rotations. A year ago, the Heat made an unlikely run to the NBA Finals amidst unusual circumstances. With the Lakers and Clippers dealing with some injury issues and the Jazz not exactly a championship-tested foe either, there’s a path for the Suns to turn some heads in the playoffs.
“I hear the ‘they’re too young’ argument all the time,” a scout said to Blakely. “But you look at their roster, they have everything right now you want to win a championship. They have leadership. They have good scorers. They have stretch-big versatility in the frontcourt. They have quality depth, good coaching. And they got a real legit chip on their shoulder because everybody has been saying they would fall all season. … Sleep on them if you want to.”
What do you think? Do you expect the Suns to be knocked out of this year’s postseason in the first or second round, or is this a team you can envision in the Western Conference Finals? Or even in the NBA Finals?
Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts on Phoenix’s playoff outlook!
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