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2020/21 NBA Reverse Standings Update

March 31st, 2021 at 8:07am CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2020/21 NBA season, Hoops Rumors is maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on the tentative 2021 draft order. Our 2020/21 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, is updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.

Our Reverse Standings are essentially a reflection of what 2021’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. We’ve noted each club’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, based on the league’s current lottery format.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Draft Lottery]

In instances where two non-playoff teams or two playoff teams have identical records, the order in our standings isn’t necessarily definitive — for draft purposes, the NBA breaks ties via random drawings, so those drawings would happen at the end of the year.

Of course, the 14 non-playoff teams all draft before the 16 playoff teams, even if some non-playoff teams have better records than those that made the postseason. Our reverse standings account for playoff seeding, though for now they assume that the Nos. 7 and 8 teams in each conference will earn those final two postseason spots. Since the NBA’s new play-in format opens the door for the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds to sneak into the postseason, we may have to account for a little movement in the draft order at season’s end.

Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For example, the note next to Golden State’s pick says the Warriors will send their pick to the Thunder if it’s not in the top 20. As of today, the Warriors’ pick projects to be exactly 13th, meaning the Dubs would hang onto it.

The Timberwolves are currently in the driver’s seat at the “top” of our reverse standings — their 11-36 record giving them a 2.5-game cushion on the league’s next-worst teams, the 13-33 Rockets and Pistons.

The league’s bottom three teams will all have an equal chance at the No. 1 overall pick (14.0%) and a top-four selection (52.1%), and the Wolves and Rockets are likely especially invested in claiming one of those top lottery positions. Minnesota will send its first-round pick to Golden State if it falls outside of the top three, while Houston will have to swap its pick for a lesser first-rounder (likely Miami’s) if it lands outside of the top four.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protections will be changing hands in 2021. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!

Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.

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NBA Teams With Open Roster Spots

March 30th, 2021 at 8:40am CST by Luke Adams

A total of 46 players were traded on deadline day last Thursday, and more have been waived and signed since then, resulting in major roster upheaval around the NBA.

With the dust settling a little, it’s worth checking in on which teams across the league now have open roster spots, and which clubs will need to fill at least one of those openings soon in order to meet the minimum roster requirements.

Let’s dive in…

Teams with two open spots on their 15-man rosters:

  • Golden State Warriors
  • Los Angeles Clippers
  • Miami Heat
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • New York Knicks
  • Portland Trail Blazers
  • Toronto Raptors

The NBA allows team to carry fewer than 14 players on standard (or 10-day) contracts for up to two weeks at a time. So these clubs are allowed to have just 13 for now, but will soon need to add a 14th, either with a 10-day signing or a rest-of-season addition.

The Warriors, Heat, Trail Blazers, and Raptors all dipped below 14 players on deadline day (March 25), so they’ll all have until next Thursday (April 8) to get back up to the required roster minimum. The Knicks will have even longer, since they just waived Terrance Ferguson and Vincent Poirier on Sunday — they’ll have to add a 14th man by April 11.

The Pelicans and Clippers, meanwhile, reduced their roster counts to 13 players on March 20 and March 22, respectively, so they’ll need to make their moves sooner. New Orleans will have to add a player by this weekend at the latest, while the Clippers will do so by next Monday.

The Pels are right up against the luxury tax line, so they’ll likely sign someone to a 10-day contract. The Clippers have enough breathing room below their hard cap to complete a rest-of-season signing if they so choose.

Teams with one open spot on their 15-man rosters:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Indiana Pacers
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Memphis Grizzlies
  • Milwaukee Bucks
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Orlando Magic

A report last Thursday indicated that the Pacers were signing Oshae Brissett, but they still have completed that 10-day deal, so they have an open roster spot for now. The Bucks technically have two open roster spots as of this writing, but are expected to sign Jeff Teague to fill one of them as soon as today.

The Lakers, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, and Magic all have 14 players on standard, rest-of-season contracts, with no obligation to fill their 15th spots anytime soon. The Cavaliers currently have 14th man Quinn Cook on a 10-day contract. When his deal expires on Wednesday night, the team will dip to 13 players and will have two weeks to re-add a 14th.

Teams with open two-way contract slots:

  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Portland Trail Blazers

The Thunder opened up one of their two-way slots when they promoted Moses Brown to the standard roster over the weekend. I’d expect them and the Timberwolves to be more interested in filling their open two-way spots than the Suns and Trail Blazers. Oklahoma City and Minnesota are lottery teams and could benefit from a look at one more young player, while Phoenix and Portland are playoff clubs that have shown no desire to add a second two-way player all season long.

Also worth mentioning:

  • Brooklyn Nets
  • Detroit Pistons
  • San Antonio Spurs

The Nets, Spurs, and Pistons currently have full 15-man rosters, but won’t for much longer, as all three teams have players on 10-day contracts. Alize Johnson‘s deal with Brooklyn runs through Wednesday, while Cameron Reynolds‘ with San Antonio runs through Sunday and Tyler Cook‘s with Detroit expires after next Tuesday.

Note: Our full roster count breakdown can be found right here.

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2021 NBA Buyout Market Watch

March 29th, 2021 at 8:01am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 NBA trade deadline is behind us, but that doesn’t mean teams are finished making roster moves. With over a month-and-a-half left in the 2020/21 regular season, there are still many roster spots to be filled around the NBA, as well as veterans who might not finish the year with their current teams.

The NBA’s buyout market has been busy since the trade deadline and figures to remain active for at least another week or two.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Buyouts]

A veteran in an undesirable situation due to his playing time or his team’s place in the standings (or both) could ask to be released and may even be willing to give back a little money to accommodate the move. Some teams might make that decision unilaterally, opting to release a veteran to open up a roster spot for a younger player.

Over the rest of the month, we’ll use the space below to monitor the buyout market, keeping tabs on which veteran players have been bought out or released, and which have found new teams. We’ll also keep an eye on players who are potential buyout candidates. The list will be updated daily.

A player on an NBA contract must be waived by the end of the day on April 9 in order to retain his playoff eligibility, so that will be a key date to watch.

Here’s our breakdown of the 2021 NBA buyout market:

Last updated 4-11-21 (8:41pm CT)

Veterans who have been bought out or released this season and are free agents:

Note: Not every player who has been cut since the trade deadline will be mentioned here. We’re not listing developmental players (such as Jalen Lecque or Ignas Brazdeikis) or injured players (like Meyers Leonard or Marquese Chriss) who would be unlikely to draw interest from playoff teams.

Veterans who have been bought out or released and joined new teams:

Other veterans who could be candidates to be bought out or released:

Note: These players all made it through the April 9 playoff eligibility waiver deadline without being cut, so they appear likely to finish the season with their respective clubs.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

March 26th, 2021 at 10:01pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Northwest Division:

Mike Conley, Jazz, 33, PG (Up) – Signed to a five-year, $152.6MM deal in 2016

After an injury-marred season, Conley has bounced back in a big way for a team with the league’s best record. He got a chance to play in the All-Star Game for this first time and he’s managed to stay on the court for the most part. His production has been steady and efficient (16.4 PPG, 5.4 APG, career-high 42.4% on 3s).

Despite his age, Conley has given himself some leverage in his walk year. However, he professed his love to Utah’s organization and style of play last month, saying he doesn’t want to go elsewhere. Barring another early-round playoff flameout, the Jazz will probably shrug off luxury-tax issues and retain their floor leader.

JaMychal Green, Nuggets, 30, PF (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $14.76MM deal in 2020

Green’s playing time was already diminishing before the Nuggets went on a shopping spree Thursday to fortify their frontcourt. The additions of Aaron Gordon and JaVale McGee mean that Green won’t be shedding his warmups very often the remainder of the season. Even with playing time factored in, Green’s rebounding numbers dropped significantly this month. The saving grace is that Green’s $7.56MM salary for next season is a player option. He won’t be pumping up his value, so it’s safe to assume he’ll opt in and let the Nuggets decide whether to keep him or deal him.

Kenrich Williams, Thunder, 26, SG/SF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $6MM deal in 2020

While the Thunder’s front office continues to pile up draft picks, the current roster has the feel of tryout camp, especially with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out for an extended period. The flip side is that players like Williams get a chance to show where they fit into the league.

Williams has been receiving steady playing time and he’s been productive of late, scoring in double figures in six of the last seven games. He’s also averaging 3.3 APG during that span, displaying his ability to make plays for others. His free throwing shooting remains woeful (54.1%). Williams’ $2MM salary for next season is non-guaranteed, but that’s a pittance for a rotation player, so expect him to remain on that contract.

Harry Giles, Trail Blazers, 22, C, (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $1.68MM deal in 2020

Opportunity knocked for Giles – and once again, he wound up in the trainer’s room. With Jusuf Nurkic sidelined for two months by a wrist injury, Giles got a chance to jump into the rotation as Enes Kanter’s backup. He was relatively ineffective before suffering a calf injury that sidelined him for over a month. With Nurkic back in action this weekend, Giles returns to third-string status at best. The 20th pick of the 2017 draft is still very young but his career is already at a crossroads as he enters unrestricted free agency again this summer. Will another organization give him a chance or will he have to seek employment overseas?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2021 NBA Trade Deadline Recap

March 26th, 2021 at 6:29am CST by Luke Adams

The 2021 NBA trade deadline was perhaps the busiest in league history. A total of 16 deals were agreed upon on deadline day, with 46 players on NBA contracts (plus two more draft-and-stash players) changing teams.

Thursday was so jam-packed with deals that the league office was unable to officially process all the trades in the queue before the end of the day, leaving three of those 16 trades to be formally finalized on Friday.

Here’s a recap all of 2021’s deadline deals:

Trades made on deadline day:

The Bulls make a surprise splash for an All-Star center (story)

The Heat buy low on a two-time All-Star (story)

  • Heat acquire Victor Oladipo.
  • Rockets acquire Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, and the right to swap the Rockets’ or Nets’ 2022 first-round pick with the Heat’s 2022 first-round pick (top-14 protected).

The Nuggets emerge as winners in the Aaron Gordon sweepstakes (story)

The Celtics make use of (part of) their massive trade exception (story)

  • Celtics acquire Evan Fournier.
  • Magic acquire Jeff Teague, either the Celtics’ or the Grizzlies’ 2025 second-round pick (whichever is less favorable), and the Celtics’ 2027 second-round pick.

The Sixers acquire a veteran point guard for their playoff run (story)

The Clippers get a play-maker, while Lou-Will heads home (story)

  • Clippers acquire Rajon Rondo.
  • Hawks acquire Lou Williams, the Trail Blazers’ 2023 second-round pick, the Clippers’ 2027 second-round pick, and cash.

The Raptors trade a guard — no, not that one (story)

The Raptors trade another guard — again, not that one (story)

  • Kings acquire Terence Davis.
  • Raptors acquire Grizzlies’ 2021 second-round pick.

The Kings and Pistons swap veteran point guards (story)

  • Kings acquire Delon Wright.
  • Pistons acquire Cory Joseph, the Lakers’ 2021 second-round pick, and the Kings’ 2024 second-round pick.

The Bulls acquire a backup center and the Celtics dump some salary in a three-team deal (story)

The Heat acquire a stretch four (story)

The Mavericks add some shooting (story)

The Nuggets acquire a veteran to back up Nikola Jokic (story)

  • Nuggets acquire JaVale McGee.
  • Cavaliers acquire Isaiah Hartenstein, the Nuggets’ 2023 second-round pick (top-46 protected), and the Nuggets’ 2027 second-round pick.

The Jazz fill their 15th roster spot with a sharpshooter (story)

  • Jazz acquire Matt Thomas.
  • Raptors acquire the Warriors’ 2021 second-round pick.

The Warriors dump some salary (story)

The Warriors dump some more salary (story)

  • Hornets acquire Brad Wanamaker, the Raptors’ 2022 second-round pick (top-54 protected), and cash.
  • Warriors acquire the Hornets’ 2025 second-round pick (top-55 protected).

Top trade candidates who stayed put:

Players waived on deadline day:

Note: Jeff Teague (Magic) and Vincent Poirier (Knicks) are expected to be waived, and Andre Drummond (Cavaliers) is working toward a buyout, but those moves have not yet been made official.

Trades made in the week leading up to the deadline:

The Bucks acquired a playoff-tested veteran (story)

  • Bucks acquire P.J. Tucker, Rodions Kurucs, and their own 2022 first-round pick (traded away in a previous deal).
  • Rockets acquire D.J. Augustin, D.J. Wilson, the Bucks’ 2023 first-round pick (unprotected), and the right to swap their own 2021 second-round pick with the Bucks’ 2021 first-round pick (top-nine protected).

The Suns added a low-cost defensive specialist (story)

The Heat brought Trevor Ariza out of hibernation (story)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Lamar Stevens Discusses Rookie Season, Cavs, Team Culture, More

March 23rd, 2021 at 8:41am CST by JD Shaw

After going undrafted in 2020, rookie forward Lamar Stevens signed a two-way contract with the Cavaliers and has emerged as a rotation player for the team this season, providing depth off the bench in 27 games to date.

Stevens, who is averaging 4.5 points and 2.7 rebounds in 13.7 minutes per game on the season, recorded a career-best 15 points and 11 rebounds in 17 minutes against the Spurs on Friday. The 23-year-old’s strong defense is a key reason why he’s received a consistent role.

Stevens recently spoke with Hoops Rumors to discuss his rookie season, his experience at Penn State, the Cavs’ culture and more:

What has your first NBA season been like?

“I think for me it’s been just a lot of learning. Just trying to be a sponge because everything happens so fast for me — really I think for all the rookies without summer league, a shortened training camp and jumping right into the season. It’s just been trying to adjust, trying to learn as much as you can really, really fast. Luckily I have great vets and great coaches that have really spent a lot of time in helping speed up my process. I would say the biggest thing for me is just trying to learn as much as I can, as fast as I can.”

How has playing for the Cavaliers shaped your rookie season? What in your mind is special about this organization in particular?

“I think what’s really special about the organization is really just the commitment to getting better. And I think each day is like, you know, you see the focus from top to bottom. From GM (Koby Altman) to coach J.B. (Bickerstaff). Everybody’s main goal is just to get better and be better than what you were yesterday. With this culture and the vets that we have, with Kevin Love, Larry (Nance Jr.), JaVale (McGee), Taurean Prince and guys like that leading the way for us, it’s been really special. It’s helped me a lot as a young player just to feel comfortable asking questions, or always being able to reach out to somebody to get into the gym at any time — that’s been special for me and has really allowed me personally to help my game grow and my mind grow as a basketball player.”

Take me through that game-winning basket you had against the Hawks. Firstly, just to be finishing a close game as a rookie — let alone an undrafted rookie — is impressive. What was it like for you to be part of such a key moment?

Read more

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Community Shootaround: Celtics’ Trade Deadline Approach

March 22nd, 2021 at 10:06pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Celtics find themselves in a tough spot with the trade deadline approaching.

They entered their game in Memphis on Monday with a .500 record. They haven’t played anything like a team that was supposed to be a serious contender in the Eastern Conference, if not the NBA championship.

Part of the reason has been injuries and COVID-19 related issues. They don’t have any players who have appeared in every game. Among those absences, Marcus Smart has missed 19 games and Kemba Walker has sat out 17 contests.

However, Boston probably isn’t good enough to win the East with its current roster unless one or two of the Nets’ stars is injured during the postseason. The Celtics could use another difference-maker, another big and some depth. Brad Stevens admitted on Monday, “I think it’s very obvious that none of those young guys have really separated themselves from the others off our bench.”

In recent days, the Celtics have been linked to Norman Powell, Harrison Barnes, Evan Fournier, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Aaron Gordon and John Collins.

Boston has a huge $28.5MM traded player exception to utilize. It also has some additional second-round picks but it would probably have to move one or more first-round picks to get one of the above-mentioned players. Smart, whose contract expires after next season, appears to be the Celtics’ best trade chip if they move any of their regulars, since it’s hard to see them dealing either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

That leads us to our topic of the day: Should the Celtics look to make a major move before Thursday’s trade deadline? If so, which player that they’ve reportedly pursued would be the best fit?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in. We look forward to your input.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division

March 19th, 2021 at 9:16pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Southeast Division:

Moritz Wagner, Wizards, 23, PF/C (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $5.99MM deal in 2018

Wagner’s younger brother Franz is pursuing a national championship with Michigan and could be a lottery pick this summer. Moe Wagner, who played in the national championship game with the Wolverines in 2018, is currently biding his time on the Wizards’ bench.

Despite the season-ending injury to starting center Thomas Bryant, Wagner has fallen behind Alex Len and Robin Lopez in Scott Brooks’ rotation and hasn’t gotten his number called in the last four games. Washington declined its fourth-year option on Wagner in December, so he’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer. A first-round pick by the Lakers in 2018, Wagner can only hope he’ll get a fresh start after seeing his career stall in Washington.

Kris Dunn, Hawks, 27, PG/SG (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $10MM deal in 2020

Dunn left Chicago and signed a two-year deal with the anticipation that he’d be a second-unit mainstay in Atlanta. Hawks fans are still waiting to see Dunn take the court. He underwent right ankle surgery in late December and has yet to make his team debut, though he has returned to practice. For a team intent on making the postseason, the Hawks may not have the luxury of waiting for Dunn to get into a rhythm. Thus, there’s no guarantee he’ll be in the rotation when he suits up. Dunn likely agreed to a $5MM player option with the aim of playing well enough to test the market again this summer. It’s a safe bet now he’ll exercise that option.

Duncan Robinson, Heat, 26, SF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3.1MM deal in 2018

Robinson’s name has been linked to some trade rumors, but whether or not Miami retains him, he’ll be making way more money next season. Robinson is expected to command an offer in the $15-$20MM range annually as a restricted free agent. That’s the value of a wing who can consistently knock down 3-pointers. Robinson established himself as a big-time shooter when he made 44.6% of his 3s last season in his second NBA campaign. That percentage is down to 38.9% this season but he’s still receiving around 30 MPG as a starter in coach Erik Spoelstra’s rotation.

Devonte’ Graham, Hornets, 26, PG/SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $4MM deal in 2018

It’s been a rough season for Graham after his breakout sophomore campaign in which he averaged 18.2 PPG and 7.5 APG. He’s dealt with some injuries, including a sore knee, and now he’s lost his starting job to rookie phenom LaMelo Ball.

The less he plays, the more time he spends hanging around the 3-point line rather than attacking the rim. With Ball leading the pack for the Rookie of the Year award, there’s speculation that Graham – a restricted free agent after the season — is available in trade talks. If Charlotte doesn’t deal Graham, it will have to decide how much it’s willing to pony up to retain him if he receives an offer sheet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Top Veteran Targets

March 19th, 2021 at 1:47pm CST by Luke Adams

With the March 25 trade deadline fast approaching, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players around the NBA who are candidates to be moved this month, breaking them down into several categories based on their age, contracts, on-court value, and other categories. Today, we’ll zero in on the top veteran trade targets on the market.

The January blockbuster trade that saw James Harden, Victor Oladipo, and Caris LeVert change teams is unlikely to be topped in the next six days. No player in Harden’s class are believed to be available, and it’s possible that the best player to be dealt by March 25 will be… well, Oladipo himself, who is back on the block just a couple months after being acquired by Houston.

Bradley Beal, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns have been the subject of some trade speculation, but that appears to be wishful thinking. The Bulls are in the playoff hunt, and Beal and Towns will likely only be moved if they push for it — so far, there’s no indication that they are.

Still, even if no All-NBA type players are on the move in the next few days, there are plenty of intriguing veteran players who could be had. The final installment of our Trade Candidate series today will focus on those players.

Let’s dive in…

Probably off-limits, but you never know:

Vucevic has said he’s happy where he is, but he has drawn significant interest from several teams. It would take a huge package to convince the Magic to move their lone All-Star, especially since he’s under contract for two more years after 2020/21.

Lowry’s $30.5MM expiring contract would make salary-matching tricky, and the Raptors won’t simply move him for the best offer — if the veteran point guard wants a change of scenery and Toronto can get something worthwhile in return, he could be on the move. But it seems more likely that he’ll stay put through the deadline and the Raptors will figure out his future in the offseason.

Young would help just about every contender and looked at one point like a prime trade candidate. But the Bulls are playing pretty well under head coach Billy Donovan and seem far more likely to push for the postseason than to essentially throw in the towel by selling off Young and their other veterans.

Turner was discussed in trade talks during the offseason, but he’s been tremendous for the Pacers this season, leading the NBA in blocked shots and anchoring Indiana’s defense. He’s not necessarily untouchable, but the price will be higher now than it was back in November.

As for DeRozan, there have been rumblings that he could be on the trade block if he and the Spurs don’t agree to an extension, but San Antonio typically doesn’t do anything too big during the season, so I’d be surprised if he’s dealt.

Intriguing targets who could realistically be available:

While Vucevic may be off the table, the Magic have a trio of other key contributors whose price tags should be more reasonable. Fournier is on an expiring contract, so there may be a little more urgency to address his situation than to do anything with Gordon or Ross. But of the three, Gordon is the most valuable and would command the biggest return. If Orlando can get a bidding war going, it could lead to a pretty tempting offer for the forward.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Kings wait until the offseason to increase their efforts to move Hield and/or Barnes, since both players are on long-term deals. But the right offer could get it done by next Thursday.

Houston is in sell mode, making Oladipo available. Still, it’s worth remembering that the Rockets didn’t have to expand the Harden deal to acquire Oladipo — they went out of their way to do so because they like him. So if they’re being low-balled at the deadline in Oladipo negotiations, they may well hang onto him.

Powell and Nance are two of the most interesting names out there and could be difference-makers for a contender. There has been no real indication that the Raptors are shopping Powell, but he can opt out this offseason and is in line for a big raise on the heels of a career year. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, have reportedly passed on offers for Nance that feature multiple late first-round picks, signaling it’ll take a lot to get him. The price for Osman would be more modest.

Their contracts complicate matters:

If Love, Drummond, and Aldridge were to hit waivers tomorrow, their agents’ phones would be inundated with calls from interested teams, and it wouldn’t take long for them to land with a contender, like Blake Griffin did with Brooklyn after he was bought out by Detroit.

However, the cap hits for Love ($31.3MM), Drummond ($28.75MM), and Aldridge ($24MM) probably outweigh their value at this point in their careers, so it will be a challenge for the Cavaliers and Spurs to extract assets in a trade without taking on some bad money.

Drummond and Aldridge, both on expiring contracts, are away from their respective clubs as they await resolution, so it’s a safe bet that they’ll be either traded or bought out. I think the Spurs probably have a slightly better chance to get a trade done, but both are toss-ups. As for Love, he still has two guaranteed seasons on his deal after 2020/21, so a buyout isn’t a realistic option for him — he’s a safe bet to stay put.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Poison Pill Provision

March 19th, 2021 at 9:22am CST by Luke Adams

The poison pill provision isn’t technically a term that is defined in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. However, the concept of a “poison pill” has colloquially come to refer to a pair of NBA concepts.

The first of those concepts relates to the Gilbert Arenas Provision, which we’ve explained in a separate glossary entry. When a team uses the Arenas provision to sign a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that team can include a massive third-year raise that is often referred to as a “poison pill.”

No current NBA contracts fit this bill, but the one Tyler Johnson signed in 2016 did — the Nets included a third-year raise in that four-year offer sheet. After the Heat matched, they had to deal with Johnson’s cap hit jumping from $5.88MM in the second year of his contract to $19.45MM in the third year.

However, the concept we’re focusing on today doesn’t involve Johnson, the Arenas provision, or RFA offer sheets. Instead, this second meaning of the “poison pill” relates to players who recently signed rookie scale extensions, something 10 players did in 2020.

The “poison pill provision” arises if a team extends a player’s rookie scale contract, then trades him before the extension officially takes effect. It’s not a situation that arises often, but it features its own set of rules, since extensions following rookie contracts often create a large gap between a player’s current and future salaries.

For salary-matching purposes, if a player is traded between the time his rookie contract is extended and the start of the following league year (when that extension takes effect), the player’s incoming value for the receiving team is the average of his current-year salary and the annual salary in each year of his extension. His current team, on the other hand, simply treats his current-year salary as the outgoing figure for matching purposes.

Let’s use Kyle Kuzma as an example. Kuzma signed a three-year, $39MM rookie scale extension with the Lakers this year, which locks him up through the 2023/24 season, assuming he picks up his final-year player option. However, he’s only on the books for $3,562,178 in 2018/19.

If the Lakers sought to trade Kuzma this season, the poison pill provision would complicate their efforts. From Los Angeles’ perspective, Kuzma’s current-year cap hit ($3,562,178) would represent his outgoing salary for matching purposes. However, any team acquiring Kuzma would have to view his incoming value as $10,640,545 — that’s the annual average of the four years and $42,562,178 he has left when accounting for both his new and old contracts.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the traded player exception, NBA rules dictate that over-the-cap teams must send and receive approximately the same amount of salary in any trade. So applying the poison pill provision to a player like Kuzma and creating a $7MM+ discrepancy between how two trade partners account for him would make salary-matching much more difficult than usual, especially since so many teams this season are hovering around the luxury-tax and hard-cap thresholds.

Trades involving a player who recently signed a rookie scale extension are already rare. After all, those players are generally young, and a player who signed an extension is promising enough to have warranted a long-term investment. Those aren’t the type of players that teams typically move, so it’s not as if guys like Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox would be trade candidates this season anyway.

The poison poll provision further disincentivizes a deal involving one of those recently-extended players by complicating salary-matching rules, making those trades even rarer. In other words, even the players who could theoretically be available just months after signing rookie scale extensions, such as Kuzma or Clippers sharpshooter Luke Kennard, are unlikely to be dealt this season.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post was published in 2012 and 2018. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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