Hoops Rumors Originals

NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Mid-Sized Expiring Contracts

March 10th, 2021 at 2:43pm CST by Luke Adams

With the March 25 trade deadline fast approaching, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players around the NBA who are candidates to be moved this month, breaking them down into several categories based on their age, contracts, on-court value, and other categories. Today, we’ll zero in on players with mid-sized expiring contracts who could be useful salary-matching pieces for deadline buyers.

NBA players on expiring contracts are, by definition, nearly all trade candidates. Many of those players aren’t in their teams’ long-term plans, and even the ones that are viewed as keepers could be shopped if a team isn’t fully confident in its ability to re-sign them.

There are a few exceptions, especially among players who have already been recently traded. The Lakers and Cavaliers gave up first-round picks to acquire Dennis Schröder and Jarrett Allen, respectively — given the price they paid, it seems clear they plan to re-sign those players and aren’t expected to shop them this month. That’s especially true for the Bucks and Jrue Holiday, whose price tag via trade was much steeper.

Most players on expiring contracts are at least at a little risk of being dealt though, so many of those players will be the ones we explore in our Trade Candidate series this week and next week.

On Monday, we examined several players who will be eligible for restricted free agency this summer. Today, we’re shifting our focus to a group of players on mid-sized expiring contracts who may be viewed as expendable salary-matching pieces by teams looking to upgrade their rosters.

Let’s dive in…

Regular rotation players who would be available for an upgrade:

Danny Green, Sixers
Cody Zeller, Hornets
Andre Iguodala, Heat
Kelly Olynyk, Heat
Will Barton, Nuggets
Tony Snell, Hawks
Doug McDermott, Pacers

These players are ones who are earning regular minutes for teams with playoff – or championship – aspirations. Some of them are having pretty nice seasons — Snell, for instance, is shooting an otherworldly 56.5% on three-point shots through 23 games. McDermott is averaging a career-best 13.2 points per game.

However, it’s hard to imagine any of these guys would be off-limits if their teams had the opportunity to include them in a package for an impact player, or even just a rotation upgrade.

Green, Zeller, and Iguodala are three of the most intriguing trade chips here. They all earn right around $15MM, so even without attaching another player, they could be used to acquire anyone earning in the $10-20MM range. All three teams are good bets to pursue deadline upgrades too — the Sixers and Heat will be among the top threats to come out of the East, while the Hornets would like to secure a playoff spot for the first time since 2016.

Olynyk ($12.6MM), Barton ($13.7MM), and Snell ($12.2MM) are also interesting salary-matching pieces for their respective teams, though trade partners may be wary of Barton’s $14.7MM player option for 2021/22 — if there’s any expectation he’ll pick up that option, he can’t be viewed as a true expiring contract.

At just $7.3MM, McDermott is a less versatile trade chip than the rest, but he’s still worth mentioning, since he’s the highest-paid Pacer who doesn’t have at least one more guaranteed year left on his deal after 2020/21. He’s also a relative bargain at that price and an excellent shooter whose Bird rights would be valuable. Presumably, he’d only be available in a package for a borderline star.

Players who would primarily be salary ballast:

Gorgui Dieng, Grizzlies
James Johnson, Mavericks
Rodney Hood, Trail Blazers
Meyers Leonard, Heat
Cristiano Felicio, Bulls

Dieng ($17.3MM) and Johnson ($16MM) are still certainly capable of playing good minutes, but they’ve been racking up DNP-CDs as of late, and their pricey salaries hurt their value.

While Dieng is a viable trade candidate, Dallas is probably more likely than Memphis to attempt to make a splash at the deadline. If so, Johnson would be more expendable than Tim Hardaway Jr. ($19MM), who is also on an expiring deal but is playing a key role for the Mavericks.

Hood ($10MM) may need more time before he’s fully recovered from the Achilles tear that sidelined him in 2019/20 — he has had his worst season since entering the NBA and his $10.9MM salary for next season is non-guaranteed, so he’ll be the Trail Blazers’ most logical salary-matching candidate as they peruse the trade market.

Leonard ($9.4MM) is one of three Heat veterans on expiring contracts who could be on the move, and has become the most dispensable, due to a season-ending shoulder injury and an off-court incident that involved him uttering an anti-Semitic slur. If he’s dealt, it’s probably safe to assume his new team will cut him pretty quickly.

As for Felicio ($7.5MM), he has been a trade candidate almost since the moment he signed an outsized four-year contract in 2017. It’s not clear yet if the Bulls will be buyers or sellers, but if they seek out a minor upgrade, Felicio would be far easier to move than Otto Porter ($28.5MM).

The wild cards:

Rudy Gay and Patty Mills, Spurs
Kelly Oubre, Warriors
Spencer Dinwiddie, Nets
Aron Baynes, Raptors

These players don’t comfortably fit into either of the first two categories for a handful of reasons. In the cases of Gay ($14.5MM), Mills ($13.5MM), and Oubre ($14.4MM), it’s simply not clear what the Spurs’ and Warriors’ deadline intentions are.

If San Antonio is ready to hand the reins to its young players, the team could fetch a decent return for veterans like Gay and Mills. But the Spurs are currently 18-14 and don’t generally make major deadline deals, so their vets may just stay put — that applies to LaMarcus Aldridge as well, whose $24MM expiring salary is too large to be considered “mid-sized.”

The Warriors, meanwhile, have the assets necessary to be aggressive and pursue an upgrade at the deadline, perhaps using Oubre and the Timberwolves’ 2021 first-round pick. But Golden State is a No. 9 seed in the West and won’t have Klay Thompson available this season, so going all-in might not make sense. The club could just as easily shop Oubre for an asset or two that could eventually be packaged with the Wolves’ pick in a future package.

I nearly put Dinwiddie ($11.5MM) in the “salary ballast” group above, since he’ll likely miss the rest of 2020/21 due to a knee injury. But he averaged 20.6 PPG a year ago and his Bird rights have value — he may be expendable from the Nets’ point of view, since he won’t play this season and the team has a pair of All-Stars in its backcourt going forward, but he’s more than just a salary throw-in.

As for Baynes ($7MM), he could theoretically be placed in either of the first two sections above. He has started 26 games at center for the Raptors and remains a rotation regular, but he’s having a down year and almost certainly won’t be a part of the club’s future plans. If Toronto makes a deadline deal, whether as a seller or buyer, Baynes seems like a good bet to be part of it.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Traded Player Exception

March 10th, 2021 at 12:42pm CST by Luke Adams

Relying on the trade machines at ESPN.com or TradeNBA.com may be the simplest way for NBA fans to verify whether or not a trade will work under league rules, but it’s worth examining the primary tool in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement that determines a trade’s viability — the traded player exception.

Teams with the cap room necessary to make a trade work don’t need to abide by traded player exception rules. However, if a team makes a deal that will leave its total salary more than $100K above the salary cap, the club can use a traded player exception to ensure the trade is legal under CBA guidelines.

There are two different types of traded player exceptions used in NBA deals. One applies to simultaneous trades, while the other applies to non-simultaneous deals.

In a simultaneous trade, a team can send out one or more players and can acquire more salary than it gives up. In a non-simultaneous trade, only a single player can be dealt, and the team has a year to take back the equivalent of that player’s salary, plus $100K.

Let’s look into each scenario in greater detail….

Simultaneous:

In a simultaneous trade, different rules applies to taxpaying and non-taxpaying clubs. A non-taxpaying team can trade one or more players and take back….

175% of the outgoing salary (plus $100K), for any amount up to $6,533,333.
The outgoing salary plus $5MM, for any amount between $6,533,333 and $19,600,000.
125% of the outgoing salary (plus $100K), for any amount above $19,600,000.

Here’s a recent example of these rules in effect:

Last November, the Timberwolves sent Jacob Evans, Omari Spellman, and a second-round pick to the Knicks in exchange for Ed Davis.

Evans and Spellman were earning a combined $4,005,600 in 2020/21, which meant Minnesota was eligible to take back up to $7,109,800 by aggregating their salaries — that figure works out to 175% of their combined salaries, plus $100K, as noted in the first rule listed above. Since Davis is earning $5,005,350, he comfortably fit within that limit.

If Evans’ and Spellman’s salaries had totaled more than $6,533,333, they would’ve been subject to the second rule above. If they’d combined to earn at least $19,600,000, the third rule would’ve applied.

For taxpaying teams, the traded player exception rules for a simultaneous trade are simpler, albeit more restrictive. A taxpaying club can send out one or more players and take back 125% of the outgoing salary, plus $100K, no matter how much – or how little – outgoing salary is involved. If the Warriors were to trade Kelly Oubre‘s $14,375,000 expiring contract, for instance, they could take back up to $18,068,750.

In simultaneous transactions, the traded player exception is used to instantly complete the deal, leaving no lingering loose ends. This form of the traded player exception generally isn’t what we’re talking about if we say a team “has a trade exception” available to use. Those outstanding trade exceptions come as a result of non-simultaneous deals.

Non-simultaneous:

In non-simultaneous deals, a team can trade away a single player without immediately taking salary back in return. The team then has up to one year in which it can acquire one or more players whose combined salaries amount to no more than the traded player’s salary (plus $100K).

For instance, before the Knicks sent Ed Davis to Minnesota, they acquired him from the Jazz – along with a pair of second-round picks – in exchange for just cash. From Utah’s perspective, that was a non-simultaneous trade, allowing them to create a traded player exception worth Davis’ salary ($5,005,350).

The Jazz will have a year to use that exception to acquire one or more players whose salaries total up to $5,105,350 (Davis’ salary, plus $100K). If they don’t use the full trade exception within a year, it will expire.

Putting the two together:

When evaluating an NBA trade, it’s worth remembering that the two teams can view the deal entirely differently and that they’re allowed to divide a single trade into multiple parts to maximize their flexibility. For example, one team could consider a trade simultaneous, while the other team breaks the transaction down into two separate trades, one simultaneous and one non-simultaneous.

Let’s take a look at a recent real-life example, examining the complex four-team trade involving the Rockets, Nets, Cavaliers, and Pacers that sent James Harden to Brooklyn.

From the Nets’ perspective, the trade broke down as follows:

Traded Caris LeVert ($16,203,704), Taurean Prince ($12,584,375), Jarrett Allen ($3,909,902), and Rodions Kurucs ($1,780,152) for Harden ($41,254,920).
- This trade is a simultaneous one for the Nets, who had to pool together a ton of salary to match Harden’s huge cap figure. As a taxpaying team, Brooklyn had to send out a minimum of $32,923,936 in salary in order to meet the 125% + $100K rule. LeVert, Prince, and Allen wouldn’t quite get their on their own (they make a combined $32,697,981), which is why a fourth player (Kurucs) had to be included.

Here’s how it looked from the Rockets’ perspective:

Traded Harden ($41,254,920) for Victor Oladipo ($21,000,000) and Dante Exum ($9,600,000).
- This segment of the trade, from the Rockets’ perspective, is non-simultaneous. Since they had to accommodate Oladipo’s and Exum’s incoming salaries using Harden’s outgoing salary, they weren’t able to create a truly massive traded player exception, but they did generate one worth the difference between Harden’s salary and the combined Oladipo/Exum figure — it worked out to $10,654,920.
Acquired Kurucs ($1,780,152) via a traded player exception.
- The Rockets possessed a handful of modest trade exceptions from deals they made at the 2020 trade deadline. One of those exceptions, created when Houston traded Nene to Atlanta, was worth about $2.56MM, which the team used to absorb Kurucs’ salary. If the Rockets hadn’t had an exception on hand, Kurucs’ salary would’ve been added to Oladipo’s and Exum’s above, slightly reducing the value of the team’s newly-created TPE for Harden.

Here’s how the Cavaliers completed the trade:

Traded Exum ($9,600,000) for Prince ($12,584,375).
- In a simultaneous trade, the Cavaliers used Exum’s outgoing salary to match Prince’s. Cleveland could have taken back up to $14,600,000 (Exum’s salary + $5MM).
Acquired Allen ($3,909,902) via a traded player exception.
- Prince and Allen earn a total of $16,494,277, exceeding the amount the Cavs could’ve acquired for Exum alone. Fortunately, Cleveland had a traded player exception available that was perfectly sized for Allen. That exception, worth $3,837,500, was created in last season’s Jordan Clarkson trade and was due to expire in February. Because a team gets $100K in wiggle room when using a non-simultaneous TPE, Allen’s salary was able to narrowly fit.

And here’s the Pacers’ perspective:

Traded Oladipo ($21,000,000) for LeVert ($16,203,704).
- This is the simplest swap of the bunch, and is a non-simultaneous trade. Because LeVert is earning less than Oladipo, the Pacers have a year to make up the difference (plus $100K), having generated a $4,796,296 traded player exception.

More notes on traded player exceptions:

For contracts signed under the NBA’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement, a team’s outgoing salary for matching purposes is the guaranteed salary rather than the total salary. For example, a player with a $2MM partial guarantee on a $10MM salary would only count for $2MM for salary-matching purposes. Between the end of a team’s season and June 30, the outgoing salary for a traded player is the lesser of his full current-season salary and his guaranteed salary for the next season. We have more details on this rule in a separate glossary entry.
When determining whether a team is over the cap or the luxury tax line for traded player exception purposes, the team’s total salary after the trade is the deciding factor.
Trade exceptions created in non-simultaneous trades can’t be combined with one another, with other exceptions, or with a player’s salary; they can’t be used to sign a free agent (except in a sign-and-trade); and they can’t be traded outright to another team.
A trade exception generated in a sign-and-trade can sometimes be subject to base year compensation rules. In that case, the player’s outgoing salary for trade purposes is either his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. That’s why the Nuggets only created a $9,525,000 in their Jerami Grant sign-and-trade, despite the fact that his first-year salary with the Pistons is $19,050,000.
Teams that are under the cap before a trade and go over the cap as a result of the trade can’t create a trade exception as a result of that deal.
For salary-matching purposes, future draft picks or the draft rights to an unsigned player aren’t taken into consideration.

The traded player exception is one of the CBA’s more complicated tools and can make it challenging for over-the-cap teams to navigate the trade market. It’s undoubtedly simpler to use an online trade machine to determine whether a deal is legal, but examining the rules and figuring out exactly how a blockbuster trade breaks down can provide rewarding insight into an NBA club’s management of its cap.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012, 2018, and 2020.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Utah Jazz

March 8th, 2021 at 9:17pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The team with the best record in the NBA gets precious little respect.

The Jazz reached the All-Star break ahead of the pack in the rugged Western Conference but no one seems to take them seriously. Back in January, TNT analysts Charles Barkley and Shaquille O’Neal refused to give Donovan Mitchell the superstar label, claiming that Mitchell doesn’t impact the game beyond scoring.

When it came time to choose sides in the NBA All-Star draft last week, Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were the last two picks by Kevin Durant and LeBron James.

“There’s no slander to the Utah Jazz,” James claimed. “You guys got to understand, just like in video games growing up, we never played with Utah. Even as great as Karl Malone and John Stockton was, we would never pick those guys in video games. Never.”

Mitchell was not pleased by the perceived insult.

The best way for the Jazz to respond is to finish what they started. The Jazz have been a playoff team the last four seasons. They got knocked out in the first round the last two years after getting eliminated in the conference semifinals in back-to-back seasons.

Last season, Mitchell tried to will his team past Denver, averaging 36.3 PPG in an epic seven-game series, but the Jazz came up just short in Game 7.

Utah didn’t have Bojan Bogdanovic in that series due to a wrist injury. Otherwise, the Jazz have virtually the same rotation as they did at the end of last year. Their chemistry makes them tough to beat in the regular season but the postseason is a different animal, when the biggest stars shine.

That brings us to our topic of the day: Can the Jazz finally overcome their recent history and make a deep playoff run? Or is the team with the best record in the NBA destined for another early-round flameout?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

NBA Trade Candidate Watch: RFAs-To-Be

March 8th, 2021 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

With the March 25 trade deadline fast approaching, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players around the NBA who are candidates to be moved this month, breaking them down into several categories based on their age, contracts, on-court value, and other categories. Today, we’ll zero in on players who will be eligible for restricted free agency at season’s end.

Players eligible for restricted free agency make for interesting trade candidates. On one hand, they generally don’t make a ton of money, making them tricky to include in a deal for an impact veteran whose salary must be matched. And many RFAs-to-be will require a significant investment when their contracts expire in a few months, which reduces their trade value.

Conversely though, if a team is unsure about its willingness to match an offer sheet for an RFA-to-be during a coming offseason, or if it knows that player isn’t in its long-term plans, it can make sense to explore the market in the hopes of getting something for that player, rather than letting him walk in a few months for nothing.

In one of 2020’s biggest trade deadline deals, the Timberwolves acquired Malik Beasley and Juan Hernangomez, then signed them to multiyear contracts as restricted free agents a few months later. In 2019, the Mavericks did the same with Kristaps Porzingis.

Who are the likeliest candidates among this year’s RFAs-to-be? Let’s dive in and take a look…

The top RFAs-to-be:

John Collins, Hawks
Duncan Robinson, Heat
Lonzo Ball, Pelicans
Lauri Markkanen, Bulls
Gary Trent Jr., Trail Blazers

It’s a safe bet that the players in this group will do well for themselves in free agency this summer. Collins should get a maximum-salary offer or close to it; Robinson could command Davis Bertans– or Joe Harris-type money; and Ball and Markkanen have flashed enough of the upside that made them lottery picks to entice a team to make a big multiyear commitment.

The Hawks, Heat, Pelicans, and Bulls will have to decide how much they’re willing to pay to retain their respective players. If they’re worried the price tag will exceed their comfort level, trying to work out a sign-and-trade in the offseason could work — they could also match a summer offer sheet in the hopes of trading the player down the road. But it might be wise to gauge what they could get at this month’s deadline.

Of these four, I think Robinson is probably the least likely to be moved at the deadline — it would only make sense for the Heat to trade him if it’s part of a package for a star, and I don’t expect that sort of star to be available this month.

Ball, and Markkanen are more interesting trade candidates, though I won’t be surprised if the Pelicans and Bulls ultimately don’t feel as if the offers on the table are strong enough to accept. Rival suitors may believe they’ll be able to poach Ball or Markkanen away from their current teams with an aggressive offer sheet, lessening the need to give up assets for them now.

Trent is a key part of the Blazers’ rotation and one of the team’s top outside shooting threats, but it’s unclear if the team will be eager to invest big money in another guard. He’d be an appealing trade chip in a package for an impact player.

Collins is the most intriguing case in this group. Although the Hawks weren’t comfortable going up to the maximum salary when they discussed an extension last fall, I could see them matching a max offer sheet this summer to make sure they don’t lose him for nothing. If a team really wants Collins, now may be the time to make a play for him.

The wild cards:

Devonte’ Graham, Hornets
Kendrick Nunn, Heat
Talen Horton-Tucker, Lakers
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Pistons
Terence Davis, Raptors
Malik Monk, Hornets

The first six names in this list are former second-round draft picks or undrafted free agents whose solid play has put them in line for significant raises on their next contracts. Those raises could come from their current teams, but it’s unclear whether they’re all part of the long-term plans for their respective clubs.

Graham, for instance, may be the odd man out in a backcourt that now features LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier. Nunn has been in and out of the Heat’s rotation since last year’s playoffs, raising questions about whether he’s viewed as a long-term fixture in Miami.

Horton-Tucker was a preseason star in December, and while he’s been just okay during the regular season, he’s just 20 years old and has plenty of potential, so he’ll be a popular target in free agency. It remains to be seen whether the Lakers are committed to keeping him as part of an increasingly expensive roster.

Mykhailiuk is a talented young shooter, but he wasn’t acquired by the Pistons’ current front office, and GM Troy Weaver has almost entirely turned the roster over since he arrived — Mykhailiuk could be the next player shipped out.

Davis recently had domestic assault charges against him dismissed, but the Raptors’ front office may not view that outcome as an exoneration. That case could factor into the club’s enthusiasm for a new long-term deal with Davis.

The one player who doesn’t quite fit in this group is Monk. A former lottery pick, he looked for a long time like a disappointment at the NBA level and a player who wouldn’t be part of the Hornets’ future, but that changed, beginning in late January.

In his last 16 games, Monk has averaged 16.9 PPG with a .436 3PT%, and is making a strong case to receive a $7MM+ qualifying offer that seemed extremely unlikely just a few weeks ago. Presumably, Charlotte would still trade him in the right deal, but he has more value than just a salary throw-in now.

The players who probably won’t even become RFAs:

Frank Ntilikina, Knicks
D.J. Wilson, Bucks
Justin Jackson, Thunder
Terrance Ferguson, Sixers

This group is made up of players who are technically eligible for restricted free agency but probably won’t receive qualifying offers, and will instead become unrestricted FAs.

In some cases, these guys may end up as salary-matching filler in a deadline trade — the Sixers, for instance, could include Ferguson in a package to acquire a player who would actually see regular minutes. Ditto for Wilson and the Bucks.

Ntilikina and Jackson may still have a small amount of value if there are teams out there that believe they can get more out of these former first-round picks than their current clubs have. Ntilikina has at least shown he can defend at the NBA level, while Jackson is only a couple years removed from knocking down 35.5% of his threes as a regular rotation player (19.9 MPG) across 81 games.

Dennis Smith Jr. would have been included in this group as well, but he has already been dealt to a new team, with the Pistons auditioning him in advance of his free agency.

The full list of potential 2021 restricted free agents – including Josh Hart, Zach Collins, and others – can be found right here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Central Division

March 5th, 2021 at 9:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Central Division:

T.J. McConnell, Pacers, 28, PG (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $7MM deal in 2019

McConnell delivered one of the rarest triple-doubles in NBA history this week. He became the first player to record a point-assist-steal triple-double since Mookie Blaylock in 1998 when he racked up 16 points, 13 assists and 10 steals against Cleveland on Wednesday. He also had a 17-point, 12-assist outing against New York on Saturday.

McConnell isn’t a 3-point threat, but he’s been maximizing his skills as one of Indiana’s top reserves this season, averaging a career-best 6.8 APG. He’s a good fit with the Pacers but he’ll attract interest from other teams as a solid second-unit floor general.

Saben Lee, Pistons, 21, PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $449K deal in 2020

Lee was selected with the 38th overall pick in the draft and signed a two-way contract. He’s taking advantage of some unexpected playing time and showing he’s worthy of a spot on the 15-man roster. With Killian Hayes and Delon Wright sidelined by injuries, Lee has provided a spark off the bench behind recently-acquired Dennis Smith Jr. In Detroit’s last two victories, Lee had a 21-point, 4-assist performance against Orlando and a 20-point, 7-assist outing against Toronto. He needs to become more of a perimeter threat but he’ll fearlessly attack the basket and he’s endeared himself to the coaching staff with his work ethic.

Jarrett Allen, 22, C (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $10MM deal in 2017

With the awkwardness of sharing the center spot with Andre Drummond behind him, Allen has settled in as the Cavaliers’ main man in the middle. In 17 starts at center this season, Allen is averaging 16.2 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 2.2 APG and 1.7 BPG while shooting 69.5% from the field. It’s well-known that Cleveland has every intention of re-signing Allen as he enters restricted free agency. The intrigue will come if one of the teams with ample salary-cap space delivers a giant offer sheet. In any case, Allen will become a very rich man this summer.

Thaddeus Young, Bulls, 32, PF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $43.6MM deal in 2019

Young has a partially-guaranteed $14.19MM salary next season. He’ll get $6MM for sure; he’s giving the Bulls plenty of incentive to hand him the remaining $8.19MM and keep him off the free agent market. Young has been one of the best reserves in the league this season, providing the Bulls with a steady finisher at the rim (career-best 60.9% from the field) and plenty of rebounding. Coach Billy Donovan has turned Young into a playmaker and he’s embraced that responsibility, averaging a career-high 4.4 APG. If the Bulls opt to trade Young this month, they’ll get a decent haul in draft picks and/0r young players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Checking In On Eastern Playoff Race

March 5th, 2021 at 3:54pm CST by Luke Adams

When we checked in on the Western playoff race on Wednesday, we suggested that there were a few clear-cut tiers within the conference, including 10 teams that look like the top contenders to make the postseason or the play-in tournament.

The Eastern Conference playoff race is far more muddled, but there are at least three playoff locks and legit contenders at the top of the conference, where the Sixers (24-12) are hanging onto a half-game lead over the Nets (24-13) and a two-game lead over the Bucks (22-14).

Philadelphia is positioned to further upgrade its roster at the trade deadline, while Brooklyn and Milwaukee have played well despite lengthy absences for Kevin Durant and Jrue Holiday, respectively. As long as all three teams stay relatively healthy in the second half, it seems pretty safe to assume they’ll secure home court advantage in round one.

After that top group, things get messy. The Celtics (19-17) currently hold the fourth seed, but they’re only separated from the 11th-seeded Hawks (16-20) by four games. In between those two teams, the Knicks (19-18), Heat (18-18), Hornets (17-18), Raptors (17-19), Bulls (16-18), and Pacers (16-19) are all jockeying for position — it wasn’t uncommon in recent days for a team to jump or fall four or five spots in the standings based on the outcome of a single night’s games.

Entering the season, the Celtics, Heat, Raptors, and Pacers were viewed as solid playoff contenders, with Atlanta expected to be in the mix as well. The Knicks, Hornets, and Bulls are the upstarts here, but career years from Julius Randle and Zach LaVine and a breakthrough performance from LaMelo Ball have helped make the case we should be taking them seriously.

With only five teams in the East above .500, most of the current lottery clubs realistically remain in the hunt for a play-in spot as well. The Wizards (14-20), Cavaliers (14-22), and Magic (13-23) don’t have good records, but Washington is within 1.5 games of the No. 10 seed, and even Orlando is only 3.5 games back.

With the All-Star break underway, we want to get your thoughts on the Eastern Conference playoff picture heading into the second half.

Which team will grab the top seed?
Which three teams will join the Sixers, Nets, and Bucks in the top six, assuring themselves of a guaranteed postseason spot?
Which four teams will finish in the 7-10 range and participate in the play-in tournament?
Will unexpected playoff contenders like the Knicks, Hornets, and Bulls wind up in the postseason?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your opinions on where things are headed in the East!

Community Shootaround: Checking In On Western Playoff Race

March 3rd, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Given the truncated nature of the NBA’s 72-game 2020/21 season, the standings in each conference figure to significantly fluctuate all year long, with any multi-game winning streak or losing streak more likely than ever to shake up the playoff picture.

Still, as we near the halfway point of the regular season, the Western Conference standings are – at least for the time being – easy enough to split into tiers.

The 27-8 Jazz are in a tier of their own at the top. Their 3.5-game lead over their next-closest competitor is the biggest margin between any two teams in the conference besides the gap between the 14th and 15th seeds. That cushion should allow Utah to have a bad week or two without necessarily falling out of the top spot in the West.

The next tier is currently made up of three Pacific teams, the Suns (23-11), Lakers (24-12), and Clippers (24-13). They’re all separated by a half-game and are at least three games ahead of any other team in the conference.

The two Los Angeles teams were expected to be here, and they comfortably hold top-four seeds despite having star players (Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George) miss some time due to injuries. Phoenix, on the other hand, is something of an upstart — expectations had increased for the Suns following their 8-0 run at last summer’s bubble and the offseason acquisition of Chris Paul, but few expected them to hold the No. 2 seed in the West with the All-Star break around the corner.

The Western Conference’s third tier consists of six teams bunched together within two games of each other, from the No. 5 Spurs (18-13) to the No. 10 Mavericks (17-16). Others in this group include the Trail Blazers (19-14), Nuggets (20-15), Warriors (19-16), and Grizzlies (16-15).

It remains to be seen whether the NBA’s new play-in format for the final two postseason spots in each conference will make this race more or less interesting. Having six clubs vie for four playoff berths would’ve been entertaining in its own right, but the play-in tournament adds a new wrinkle.

Assuming the Jazz, Suns, Lakers, and Clippers hang onto playoff spots, that will only leave two guaranteed postseason berths for the six “third-tier” clubs. The teams that finish in the 7-10 range would enter the play-in tournament, where the Nos. 7 and 8 teams would need to win one game to advance, while the Nos. 9 and 10 teams would have to win two.

Entering the season, the Mavs, Blazers, and Nuggets were viewed as the likeliest playoff teams from this group, but San Antonio and Memphis have substantially exceeded expectations, and Golden State has admirably overcome the loss of Klay Thompson. If pressed, I’d probably consider Denver and Portland the favorites to claim the fifth and sixth seeds, but this should be a fascinating race.

A few clubs further down in the standings have the potential to shake up the postseason picture too, but it’s hard to get too enthusiastic about the 7-28 Timberwolves or the 11-22 Rockets, both of whom are mired in horrible slumps, or the 14-20 Thunder, who are ostensibly rebuilding. The 13-21 Kings have also been hit hard by a recent cold streak and have a lot of ground to make up.

That leaves the Pelicans (15-19), who are the most intriguing wild card outside the Western Conference’s current top 10. All-Star forward Zion Williamson and 2020 All-Star Brandon Ingram give New Orleans a dangerous one-two punch on offense, but the club will need to tighten up its defense to make a run — the Pelicans’ 116.1 defensive rating ranks 29th in the NBA.

With the first half of the NBA season about to come to an end, we want to get your thoughts on where things stand in the Western Conference playoff race.

Will the Jazz finish the season as the No. 1 seed?
Will the Jazz, Suns, Lakers, or Clippers fall out of the top four?
Which teams do you view as the best bets to claim the top six seeds in the conference?
Which four clubs do you expect to take part in the play-in tournament?
Will the Pelicans or another team currently in the bottom five force their way into the top 10? If so, which team are they knocking out?

Head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

Seventeen More NBA Players Become Trade-Eligible

March 3rd, 2021 at 8:22am CST by Luke Adams

Most NBA players who signed new contracts as free agents during the 2020 offseason became eligible to be traded as of February 6, but a small subset of players were still ineligible to be dealt until today, March 3.

These players all met a specific set of criteria: Not only did they re-sign with their previous team during the offseason, but they got a raise of at least 20%, their salary is worth more than the minimum, and their team was over the cap, using Bird or Early Bird rights to sign them.

As Bobby Marks of ESPN confirms (via Twitter), the following players fit that bill and are eligible to be traded as of today:

Joe Harris (Nets)
Denzel Valentine (Bulls)
- Note: Valentine has the ability to veto a trade.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Lakers)
Anthony Davis (Lakers)
De’Anthony Melton (Grizzlies)
Pat Connaughton (Bucks)
Malik Beasley (Timberwolves)
Juan Hernangomez (Timberwolves)
Brandon Ingram (Pelicans)
Michael Carter-Williams (Magic)
Jevon Carter (Suns)
Dario Saric (Suns)
Rodney Hood (Trail Blazers)
Jakob Poeltl (Spurs)
Chris Boucher (Raptors)
Fred VanVleet (Raptors)
Davis Bertans (Wizards)

A few of these players aren’t realistic candidates to be traded — Davis, Ingram, and VanVleet, for instance, aren’t going anywhere this month. But many of them are role players who would probably be available in the right deal, so it’s worth noting that the restrictions on them have lifted.

Only a small handful of players on standard contracts around the NBA remain ineligible to be dealt. That group of players includes the seven who are on active 10-day contracts, since a player on a 10-day deal can’t be traded. Here’s the rest of the list:

Trade-eligible as of March 18:

LeBron James (Lakers)

Trade-eligible as of March 23:

Taj Gibson (Knicks)

Not eligible to be traded this season:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
Paul George (Clippers)
Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
Monte Morris (Nuggets)
Alex Len (Wizards)

Gibson and Len signed after the regular season was already underway, so their restrictions will last longer than the ones on players who signed during the offseason. The others in this group signed veteran contract extensions that exceeded the extend-and-trade limits in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, making them ineligible to be dealt for a few months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Top Draft Pick

March 2nd, 2021 at 8:37pm CST by Dana Gauruder

There’s help on the way for teams such as the Pistons and Timberwolves, who have the worst record in their respective conferences.

The 2021 NBA draft class is projected to be stronger than usual, particularly at the top where five players have emerged as potential All-Stars.

Most of the draft buzz has centered on Oklahoma State freshman guard Cade Cunningham. His college coach calls him a cross between Grant Hill and Penny Hardaway. He has also drawn comparisons to Luka Doncic.

Cunningham’s 40-point explosion against Oklahoma on Saturday further solidified his reputation as the draft’s top prospect (he only took eight shots and scored 15 points in a rematch on Monday). The 6’8’’ Cunningham is averaging 19.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 3.5 APG and could turn into a triple-double machine in the pros.

There are several other prospects who could legitimately argue they deserve to top the list. USC seven-footer Evan Mobley is averaging 16.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 2.9 BPG in his freshman season. Mobley is the prototype of a modern big man with elite rim protecting skills. Though the NBA has become an increasingly small-ball league, there’s always room for an athletic big man (Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis).

Gonzaga freshman guard Jalen Suggs hasn’t piled up the stats like Cunningham and Mobley but he’s got a good excuse – he’s surrounded by better players. The top prospect on the nation’s top-ranked team is averaging 13.9, PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, and 2.0 SPG. He could excel at either guard spot at the next level.

Then there’s the G League Ignite duo of Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga. Green is averaging 17.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 2.7 APG and shooting 37.9% beyond the arc while facing experienced professionals. Green has the ability to be an explosive scorer in the Zach LaVine mold and can terrorize defenders in the open court.

Kuminga, a 6’8’’ forward, has been better than advertised while averaging 16.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 2.8 APG. He has the physical tools to step right into a starting lineup and create mismatches at either forward spot. He has shown superior shot-creating ability in the Orlando bubble.

That leads us to our topic of the day: Should Cade Cunningham be the No. 1 pick of the draft or do you feel Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green or Jonathan Kuminga will be an even better pro?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Super-Max Candidates To Watch In 2021

March 1st, 2021 at 2:35pm CST by Luke Adams

The Designated Veteran Extension, as we explain our glossary entry on the subject, is a relatively new addition to the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. It allows players with 7-9 years of experience, who would normally qualify for a maximum starting salary of 30% of the cap, to qualify for a “super-max” contract that starts at 35% of the cap, a level normally reserved players with 10+ years of experience.

A player who has seven or eight years of NBA service with one or two years left on his contract becomes eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension if he meets the required performance criteria and hasn’t been traded since his first four years in the league. A Designated Veteran contract can also be signed by a player who is technically a free agent if he has eight or nine years of service and meets the required criteria.

The performance criteria is as follows (only one of the following must be true):

The player was named to an All-NBA team and/or was named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.
The player was named the NBA MVP in any of the three most recent seasons.

Technically, players like Gary Harris and Evan Fournier meet the criteria related to years of service with one team and could theoretically become eligible to sign a super-max extension this year, but they’re obviously not viable candidates to make an All-NBA team in 2021.

There are, however, a few players who are more realistic candidates to qualify for a super-max veteran contract based on their All-NBA candidacy. Let’s dive in and examine a few of those cases…

Joel Embiid (Sixers)

When Embiid first signed his five-year, maximum-salary contract with the Sixers back in 2017, he had appeared in just 31 games over the course of his first three NBA seasons, making the investment a risky one. The deal included some injury protection for Philadelphia, giving the team the ability to waive Embiid without fully guaranteeing the salaries in later years of the deal if one of the injuries he experienced early in his career became a recurring issue.

The idea of the Sixers waiving Embiid seems absurd now. While the former third overall pick hasn’t exactly been an iron man since the start of the 2017/18 season, there are no longer any concerns about his career being derailed by health issues before it could really get off the ground.

Embiid will have seven years of NBA service under his belt at the end of the 2020/21 campaign and if he earns a spot on an All-NBA team, he’d have done so twice in the last three years, having made the Second Team in 2019.

For now, he looks like an awfully safe All-NBA bet — his 30.0 PPG, 11.3 RPG, .519/.415/.858 shooting line, and solid defense have made him a legit MVP candidate. Health is always the wild card for Embiid, but as long as he stays on the court for most of the second half, an All-NBA spot should be a lock. That would make the big man eligible to sign a super-max extension with the Sixers this offseason.

Embiid remains under contract through 2023, with a $31.6MM salary in ’21/22 and a $33.6MM figure for ’22/23. A super-max extension would tack on four years to those two seasons and would start at 35% of the ’23/24 cap.

It’s too early to know exactly where the cap will end up in 2023/24, but if we use a conservative estimate and assume it will rise by 3% annually in each of the next three summers, that would result in a four-year total of up to $187MM on a new Embiid deal that runs through 2027. It will be fascinating to see how eager the 76ers would be to put that extension – which would cover Embiid’s age-29 to age-32 seasons – on the table.

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Like Embiid, Jokic has played like an MVP candidate and is a lock for an All-NBA spot, barring an injury or another unexpected development. Jokic, who was the All-NBA Second Team center in 2020, is making a case for a First Team spot this season, averaging 26.7 PPG, 10.9 RPG, and 8.5 APG on .564/.421/.879 shooting through 33 games for the Nuggets.

Unlike Embiid, however, Jokic will only have six years of NBA experience at the end of the 2020/21 season. That means that even though he can technically gain super-max eligibility by earning an All-NBA nod for the second straight season, Jokic wouldn’t officially be able to sign a new extension with Denver until 2022, once he has his seven years of service.

This is the same situation Giannis Antetokounmpo found himself in last year — he gained super-max eligibility following the 2018/19 season based on his multiple All-NBA spots and his MVP award, but wasn’t able to actually sign that super-max contract until the 2020 offseason, once he had seven years of service. The Bucks, of course, planned all along to offer him the super-max as soon as they could, and it’s probably safe to assume the Nuggets will do the same for Jokic.

Jokic’s current contract is virtually identical to Embiid’s, with matching $31.6MM and $33.6MM cap hits for the next two seasons after ’20/21. Because Jokic wouldn’t be able to sign a super-max until 2022 though, he could get a five-year extension at that point — if we once again assume annual 3% cap increases, that deal could be worth up to an eye-popping $242MM.

Zach LaVine (Bulls)

While Embiid and Jokic have clear paths to All-NBA spots in 2021, LaVine is a longer shot to get there. The Bulls guard is having the best year of his career and currently ranks sixth in the NBA with 28.7 points per game, but he’s not a strong defender and Chicago’s place in the standings is unlikely to do him any favors with All-NBA voters.

Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Luka Doncic, and James Harden look like the top contenders to fill the guard spots on the first two teams, which means LaVine would be competing with stars like Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Ben Simmons, and Jaylen Brown, among others, for a Third Team spot.

LaVine’s current deal pays him well below the max, at just $19.5MM annually, so earning an All-NBA spot would make him eligible for a massive raise. If we once again count on annual 3% salary cap increases, a super-max extension for LaVine would could be worth up to $235MM over five years, starting in 2022/23.

Even if he beats the odds and earns an All-NBA spot, LaVine seems unlikely to receive that sort of offer from the Bulls, who traded Jimmy Butler to Minnesota when his super-max eligibility loomed a few years ago. But the super-max wrinkle would further complicate LaVine’s contract situation, which should be very interesting to monitor even if he falls short of an All-NBA team.

Because he’s earning just $19.5MM next season, LaVine would typically only be eligible for a four-year, $104.8MM veteran extension — the Bulls would almost certainly put that offer on the table, but LaVine would probably pass, since he’d be eligible for a far higher salary as a free agent in 2022.

It’s worth considering, however, that Chicago projects to have a significant chunk of cap room available during the 2021 offseason, giving the team the option of renegotiating the final year of LaVine’s contract to give him a raise and a more lucrative extension. That may be the most likely outcome for the first-time All-Star, who is a super-max long shot but is still likely to command more than the $26MM annual salary the Bulls can offer without a renegotiation.

Luka Doncic (Mavericks)

To be clear, Doncic will not be eligible for a starting salary worth 35% of the salary cap on his next contract. But the Mavericks star is being mentioned here because he’ll likely become eligible for a lesser form of the “super-max” contract.

When a former first-round pick is entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, he’s eligible to sign a rookie scale extension that starts at 25% of the cap. But if that player has met the super-max performance criteria listed at the top of this story (based on MVP, DPOY, or All-NBA honors), his rookie scale extension can instead start at 30% of the cap.

Most of the time, a player who signs a rookie scale extension that can start at 30% of the cap does so conditionally — for instance, Jayson Tatum was on the 2019/20 All-NBA Third Team, then signed a rookie scale extension prior to the ’20/21 season. Because his extension will go into effect next season, Tatum still has to earn an All-NBA spot again this season to meet the super-max criteria (an All-NBA spot in the most recent season, or in two of the past three seasons) and to qualify for that 30% starting salary.

Doncic, on the other hand, has a chance to pull off a rare feat. Because he was named to the All-NBA First Team in just his second season, he’ll become eligible for a 30% starting salary if he earns All-NBA honors again this year, in his third season. It wouldn’t matter whether or not he’s an All-NBA player again in 2022, because he would have already met the necessary benchmark — two All-NBA berths in three years.

Assuming Doncic earns an All-NBA spot this season, which looks like a safe bet, he’d be eligible to sign a five-year rookie scale extension worth a projected $201.5MM, which would begin during the 2022/23 season.

Like Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox all signed rookie scale extensions in 2020 that will increase in value if they meet certain performance criteria, so they’re worth keeping an eye on this season too.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Load More Posts