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2020/21 NBA Waiver Claims

December 25th, 2020 at 11:49am CST by Luke Adams

Waiver claims are something of a rarity in the NBA. In order to claim a player off waivers, a team generally must be able to fit the player’s entire salary into cap room, a traded player exception, or a disabled player exception. While there are a few teams with sizable trade exceptions available, only the Warriors and Magic have disabled player exceptions on hand, and the Knicks and Hornets are the only teams with any cap room left.

Given those limitations, the players most frequently claimed on waivers are those on minimum salary deals, since any club is eligible to place a claim on those players using the minimum salary exception. Even then though, there are exceptions — the minimum salary exception can only be used to sign players for up to two years, so the same rules apply to waiver claims. If a player signed a three-year, minimum salary contract, he can’t be claimed using the minimum salary exception.

Taking into account all the rules that reduce the odds of a waiver claim – not to mention the limited roster spots available for NBA teams – it makes sense that nearly all of the players who get released ultimately clear waivers. The 2019/20 league year featured a total of 12 waiver claims, which was the highest mark in several years.

Despite how infrequent they are, we still want to track all the waiver claims that take place during the 2020/21 league year, since you never know which claim may end up being crucial (such as the Pistons‘ July 2019 claim of Christian Wood). We’ll track this year’s waiver claims in the space below, updating the list throughout the season to include the latest moves.

Here’s the list:

  • Rockets claim Kenny Wooten from Knicks (November 21) (story)
    • Wooten signed a two-year, two-way contract with the Knicks last January, but never played an NBA game with the team and was cut in November with a new regime in charge. It looked like the Rockets may end up poaching Wooten for one of their two-way contract slots, but they decided to waive him during the preseason, using that slot on Brodric Thomas instead.
  • Nets claim Paul Eboua from Heat (December 18) (story)
    • Eboua was a training camp invitee in Miami who was beaten out by Max Strus for the club’s second two-way slot. The Nets claimed his non-guaranted minimum salary contract off waivers, then promptly re-released him. Brooklyn likely plans to have Eboua play for the Long Island Nets in the G League this season.
  • Suns claim Frank Kaminsky from Kings (December 21) (story)
    • Of the first three waiver claims of 2020/21, Kaminsky is the only one who began the regular season on his new team’s roster. The Suns, who had Kaminsky on their roster in 2019/20, declined his $5MM team option at the start of the offseason, but were happy to get him back on a non-guaranteed minimum salary deal via waivers, taking him into their open 15th roster spot.
  • Rockets claim DaQuan Jeffries from Kings (April 5) (story)
    • After re-signing Jeffries to a two-year, minimum-salary deal during the 2020 offseason, the Kings decided late in the first year that he wasn’t in their plans. The rebuilding Rockets opted to take a flier on Jeffries to see if he might be worth retaining in 2021/22 on his second-year team option.
  • Spurs claim DaQuan Jeffries from Rockets (May 15) (story)
    • Being released twice in a single season isn’t ideal, but the silver lining for Jeffries is that he was the only player to be claimed off waivers twice during the 2020/21 season. Houston had to make room on its roster to sign Khyri Thomas to a multiyear deal, making Jeffries the odd man out. The Spurs decided to use their open roster spot to claim his rights and will have to make a decision later this year on his 2021/22 team option.
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Community Shootaround: Christmas Day Games

December 25th, 2020 at 8:30am CST by Luke Adams

When the 2019/20 NBA season ended in October, it didn’t seem likely that we’d see another NBA game played until some time in the new year, perhaps even as late as February or March. But the league accelerated its plans for the 2020/21 regular season in the fall, ensuring that an annual tradition was preserved: the five-game Christmas Day slate.

Today’s schedule is as follows:

  • New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat (11:00am central time)
  • Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks (1:30pm CT)
  • Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics (4:00pm CT)
  • Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (7:00pm CT)
  • Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets (9:30pm CT)

A couple of these matchups look even more tantalizing today than they did a week ago. The Pelicans, for instance, looked awfully impressive in their opening-night game against Toronto on Wednesday and will be going up against the defending Eastern champion Heat, who are hungry for their first win of the season.

A Stephen Curry/Giannis Antetokounmpo showdown between the Warriors and Bucks will be followed by a matchup of two potential Eastern Conference contenders who looked great on opening night, the Nets and Celtics.

Luka Doncic and the Mavericks and LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Lakers will all be looking for their first win of the season in the evening.

And the night is capped off with a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Semifinals, with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and the Clippers visiting Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and the Nuggets.

Which game are you most looking forward to watch today? Which five teams are you picking to win the Christmas Day games? Use the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and make your predictions!

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NBA Teams With Open Roster Spots To Start Season

December 24th, 2020 at 12:23pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the regular season is underway, no NBA team is carrying more than 17 players in total — 15 on standard contracts and two on two-way deals. However, not every team is making use of all 17 roster spots available to them.

Currently, 12 of the league’s 30 teams have at least one open roster spot, either on their regular roster or in their two-way slots.

Those dozen teams have different reasons for not carrying a 15th man on their standard roster. For some clubs, the decision is likely financially motivated, since an open roster spot means not having to pay an extra player.

Some teams may want to maintain the roster flexibility that an open roster provides — it can allow a club to act quickly and decisively in the event of an injury or a two-for-one trade opportunity.

A handful of teams actually can’t add a 15th man at this point, since they’re too close to their hard cap and won’t be able to fit another minimum-salary contract below that hard cap until later in the season.

With the G League season not yet underway, a healthy team may simply decide there’s no point in filling the 15th spot with a developmental player who won’t see any game action. That may also be the reason why some teams haven’t yet filled both their two-way contract slots.

Listed below, with the help of our roster counts breakdown, are the teams that aren’t carrying full rosters.

Teams with an open 15-man roster spot:

  • Charlotte Hornets
  • Houston Rockets *
  • Los Angeles Clippers *
  • Los Angeles Lakers *
  • Milwaukee Bucks *
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
  • New Orleans Pelicans
  • Portland Trail Blazers
  • San Antonio Spurs
  • Utah Jazz

Note: An asterisk (*) denotes that the team can’t currently sign a 15th man due to the hard cap.

Teams with an open two-way slot:

  • Detroit Pistons
  • Phoenix Suns
  • Portland Trail Blazers
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Troy Daniels Navigates Through Unprecedented Year In Search Of Next Opportunity

December 23rd, 2020 at 10:14am CST by JD Shaw

Free agent guard Troy Daniels, a seven-year veteran, has spent every season of his career on an NBA roster since going undrafted in 2013. After signing a summer league deal with Charlotte as a rookie to jump-start his career, he’s since made stops with seven teams — the Rockets, Timberwolves, Hornets (again), Grizzlies, Suns, Lakers, and – most recently – the Nuggets.

Even for Daniels, who’s grown accustomed to adjusting to new circumstances, 2020 has been an unusual year. In addition to stints with both the Lakers and Nuggets, Daniels – like others around the world – has had to navigate the coronavirus pandemic, adapting to the habits of wearing a mask and social distancing while staying ready for his next professional opportunity.

“It’s been a roller coaster ride, to say the least,” Daniels told Hoops Rumors in a phone interview. “A lot of ups and downs throughout the whole year, not just the pandemic. Literally everything. Me leaving the Lakers, heading to Denver; roller coaster ride for sure. 

“Sometimes you just have to roll with the punches. My career has been built on that — being traded twice in one year, people not believing in me coming out of college — I’ve always risen to the top. I think my career’s been built on that, and I think even this year’s a testament to how I could overcome anything.”

Daniels remains an unrestricted free agent, waiting for a call to start his eighth NBA season. He’s known for being an elite shooter, averaging 6.6 points per game on 39.5% shooting from three-point range over the course of 339 career games. Perhaps his best season came in 2017/18, when he averaged 8.9 points and 20.5 minutes in 79 contests with the Suns.

Last season, Daniels signed with the Nuggets in March (a week before the league went on hiatus), playing five games with the club in the Orlando restart and another six in the playoffs.

Before joining Denver, Daniels spent half the season with the eventual champion Lakers, appearing in 41 games for the club. He earned the respect of LeBron James and Anthony Davis during his stay in Los Angeles, consulting both superstars on his decision to eventually leave the team and join the playoff-bound Nuggets.

Both the Lakers and Nuggets — who competed against each other in the Western Conference Finals — had deep backcourts. As a result, Daniels didn’t receive significant playing time from either club, but the opportunity to compete for a title was too good to pass up for the former VCU standout.

With the 2020/21 regular season around the corner, Daniels is one of several veteran players still available on the open market. The 29-year-old told Hoops Rumors he feels he can help a team seeking a “great locker room guy” who can provide stability and floor-spacing in the backcourt.

“I shoot the ball at very high level, at the highest level in the sport,” Daniels said. “And also [I’m] just a guy that’s not getting into too much trouble or anything like that. I’m not going to challenge the front office decisions or anything of that nature. I’m just a guy that comes in, gets his work in, helps the young guys out and I’m out of there. Really your ultimate vet, a pro’s pro. I’ve been doing that my whole career and even in college. I feel like I’ve built my career on being a pro’s pro.”

Daniels’ on- and off-court contributions have made an impression on his peers around the league. This past weekend, Jamal Crawford — one of the NBA’s most highly-regarded veterans — posted a message in response to a video of Daniels working out: “One of the best shooters in the NBA period. Great attitude, worker, team guy. True vet!”

Daniels also spent a significant amount of time improving his body this offseason, working to eat healthier, tracking his calories and maintaining a disciplined training routine.

“My focus [this year] has been on being in a lot better shape than usual,” he said. “In previous training camps, I’m usually in shape, but I’m not in true game-shape. It’s especially hard to get in that game-shape. You can’t be in game-shape unless you’re actually playing the games, but I wanted to be over and above for this year.”

While getting into world-class physical shape has been a priority, Daniels has made an effort not to take the mental side of things – both on the court and off – for granted, and is focused on keeping a positive mindset as he prepares for his next opportunity.

“You could go to a gym and do all of that work, but if your mind’s not right or your head’s not in the right space, then [your production] will never be to the extent that you want it to be,” Daniels explained. “And, you know, meditating, taking at least an hour to have a quiet room, making sure you’re in the right space, being positive about things even if you don’t want to be — that gets me through the day. That gets me through the year across the board for everything.

“My mindset is what helps me shoot at a high level. I have to go into every game knowing that I might not play this game. But if my number gets called, I’m gonna make sure I’m ready and my mind is right, or I’m cheering my teammates on. Those types of things get you in the space needed to perform at a high level.”

Through each of the highs and lows in his career, plus any uncertainty that’s come with it, one thing has never changed in Daniels’ approach to success: staying prepared.

“It’s very, very important to stay ready,” he said. “Even if you’re in the league right now, that should be your job. There are only a handful of superstars in the NBA. The rest are guys that are role players. So you have to always be ready to go when your number’s called, even if you’re playing 15 minutes, 20 minutes or whatever the coach asks you to do. That’s something that I’ve personally built my career on: always being ready. I’ve never had the luxury to know where I want to play, but I’ve always had that luxury in my mind to say, ‘Hey, when I do get out there, I’m gonna be ready’. That’s just how I train.”

You’d be hard-pressed to find someone who questions Daniels’ passion, focus or commitment. Despite his immediate future being unclear, one thing is for certain: when the call does eventually come his way, it’s safe to say he’ll be ready.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020/21 NBA Over/Unders: Recap

December 22nd, 2020 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the last week, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2020/21 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Bucks (51.5) all the way through to the Knicks, Pistons, and Thunder (22.5 apiece).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
  • Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
  • New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (51.5 wins): Over (73.7%)
  • Indiana Pacers (39.5 wins): Over (57.9%)
  • Chicago Bulls (29.5 wins): Under (61.6%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (23.5 wins): Under (68.5%)
  • Detroit Pistons (22.5 wins): Over (53.9%)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Over (67.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (36.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Under (50.7%)
  • Orlando Magic (31.5 wins): Under (73.5%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (26.5 wins): Over (56.3%)

Western Conference

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (44.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • Utah Jazz (42.5 wins): Over (59.9%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Over (70.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (29.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Under (64.4%)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): Over (79.1%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (47.5 wins): Under (50.4%)
  • Phoenix Suns (40.5 wins): Over (51.0%)
  • Golden State Warriors (38.5 wins): Over (60.3%)
  • Sacramento Kings (29.5 wins): Under (60.7%)

Southwest:

  • Dallas Mavericks (43.5 wins): Over (73.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (36.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
  • Houston Rockets (35.5 wins): Under (50.4%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (32.5 wins): Over (53.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (30.5 wins): Under (62.3%)

The main takeaway from these results: Our voters very much expect good teams to be good and the bad teams to be bad in 2020/21.

Of the 17 teams with projected win totals of 36.5 or higher, only one – the Clippers – was voted “under.” Meanwhile, of the 10 teams with a projected win total of 31.5 or less, only two – the Pistons and Hornets – were voted “over.”

Here were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

  1. Los Angeles Lakers, 48.5 wins: 79.1%
  2. Milwaukee Bucks, 51.5 wins: 73.7%
  3. Dallas Mavericks, 43.5 wins: 73.6%
  4. Portland Trail Blazers, 41.5 wins: 70.1%
  5. Denver Nuggets, 44.5 wins: 69.7%

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

  1. Orlando Magic, 31.5 wins: 73.5%
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers, 23.5 wins: 68.5%
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder, 22.5 wins: 64.4%
  4. San Antonio Spurs, 30.5 wins: 62.3%
  5. Chicago Bulls, 29.5 wins: 61.6%

Betting on some of the NBA’s worst teams to go under their projections makes sense, as long as you’re correct in forecasting which teams will be at the bottom of the standings.

No team this season has an over/under mark below 22.5 wins, and a team that finishes 23-49 would have a .319 winning percentage. A year ago, the league’s bottom six clubs all had percentages lower than that.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last week or two that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: 2020/21 NBA Predictions

December 22nd, 2020 at 1:28pm CST by Luke Adams

It may feel as if the 2019/20 NBA season just ended, but we’re just suddenly hours away from the ’20/21 regular season tipping off.

With the coronavirus pandemic ongoing, this season won’t quite look like a typical NBA campaign. Teams are only scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, and that’s assuming that they can get through the season without cancellations.

On Monday, commissioner Adam Silver told reporters – including Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press – that he expects some “bumps in the road” for the NBA as the 2020/21 season progresses, acknowledging that there will likely be some positive COVID-19 tests among players and other on-court personnel. However, Silver also said the league is “prepared for all contingencies” and is confident that it will be able to get through the full season.

Time will tell if Silver is right. But for now, let’s assume – or at least hope – that he is. We want to get your predictions on which teams and players will rule the 2020/21 NBA season — assuming the league can get through it.

Playoffs and NBA Finals

Betting site BetOnline.ag currently lists the following 12 teams as the best bets to claim the top six spots in each conference:

Eastern Conference:

  1. Milwaukee Bucks
  2. Brooklyn Nets
  3. Boston Celtics
  4. Miami Heat
  5. Toronto Raptors
  6. Philadelphia 76ers

Western Conference:

  1. Los Angeles Lakers
  2. Los Angeles Clippers
  3. Denver Nuggets
  4. Dallas Mavericks
  5. Utah Jazz
  6. Portland Trail Blazers

Only the top six finishers in each conference are assured of playoff berths this season, as the Nos. 7-10 teams will participate in a play-in tournament at the end of the year for the final two spots. The seventh and eighth seeds will only have to win once in two games to claim their spots, while the ninth and 10th seeds would require two wins.

Based on BetOnline’s odds, the Pacers, Hawks, Wizards, and Magic are the best bets for the 7-10 spots in the East, with the Bulls, Hornets, and Cavaliers among the teams lurking as threats.

In the West, the Suns, Warriors, Rockets, and Pelicans are considered the best bets for that 7-10 range, with the Grizzlies, Spurs, Kings, and Timberwolves looking to push them out.

Meanwhile, the Bucks and the Nets are the frontrunners to make the NBA Finals in the East, per BetOnline, while the Lakers and Clippers are the overwhelming betting favorites to represent the West.

What do you think? Do those projected standings look about right to you, or do you think certain teams are noticeably overvalued or undervalued? Do you expect some combination of the Bucks, Nets, Lakers, and Clippers to play in the Finals, or will another team (or two) crash the party?

NBA End-of-Season Awards

Some end-of-season awards are a little easier to forecast than others. We have a general idea of which players should be in the mix for the Most Valuable Player award or Defensive Player of the Year honors. But there could be dozens of candidates for Most Improved Player, while an award like Sixth Man of the Year often hinges on whether injuries force certain top bench players to become starters.

Still, BetOnline has provided betting favorites for all of major awards. Here are bettors’ top five picks for each one:

Most Valuable Player:

  1. Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
  2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
  3. Kevin Durant (Nets)
  4. Stephen Curry (Warriors)
  5. Anthony Davis (Lakers) / LeBron James (Lakers) (tie)

Defensive Player of the Year:

  1. Anthony Davis (Lakers)
  2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
  3. Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
  4. Bam Adebayo (Heat)
  5. Joel Embiid (Sixers)

Rookie of the Year:

  1. LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
  2. Obi Toppin (Knicks)
  3. James Wiseman (Warriors)
  4. Killian Hayes (Pistons)
  5. Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)

Sixth Man of the Year:

  1. Lou Williams (Clippers)
  2. Jordan Clarkson (Jazz)
  3. Danilo Gallinari (Hawks)
  4. Goran Dragic (Heat)
  5. Serge Ibaka (Clippers)

Most Improved Player:

  1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
  2. Deandre Ayton (Suns)
  3. Christian Wood (Rockets) / Michael Porter (Nuggets) (tie)
  4. Jamal Murray (Nuggets)
  5. Coby White (Bulls)

Coach of the Year:

  1. Steve Nash (Nets)
  2. Tyronn Lue (Clippers)
  3. Monty Williams (Suns)
  4. Brad Stevens (Celtics) / Erik Spoelstra (Heat) / Frank Vogel (Lakers) / Rick Carlisle (Mavericks) (tie)
  5. Doc Rivers (Sixers)

While the favorites for each of those awards make sense, there are some guys I like who don’t make the cut. I think Kings guard Tyrese Haliburton is an intriguing Rookie of the Year candidate, and I’d be tempted to make Davis Bertans my choice for Sixth Man as long as the Wizards intend to continue bringing him off the bench.

What do you think? Are you picking mostly from the above candidates for your award selections, or are you going off the board with some of your choices?

With the regular season to tip off, we want to hear your predictions for the coming year.

Head to the comment section below to share your picks for the 2020/21 regular season standings, the playoff results, the award winners, and any other subjects you want to weigh in on (James Harden‘s trade destination? Or maybe the first head coach to be fired?).

Happy opening night!

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NBA Teams With Most, Least Roster Continuity

December 22nd, 2020 at 10:53am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s offseason felt awfully busy, with free agency opening just two days after the draft and training camps starting about 10 days later. As hectic as those couple weeks were though, they actually didn’t feature a ton of player movement relative to a typical offseason.

A year ago, for instance, when we looked at the teams with the most and least roster continuity from year to year, we found that only one team was bringing back 13 players (counting two-ways) from its previous squad, while a total of four had 11 or more returning players.

This time around, seven clubs are bringing back 13 or more players from their end-of-season 2019/20 rosters, and a total of 18 teams will have 11 or more returning players. The Bulls and Pacers lead the way, having carried over 14 players apiece.

While the condensed offseason made for an exciting November, the quick turnaround also likely played a major part in teams’ decisions to stand relatively pat. Without a Summer League or the opportunity to conduct offseason mini-camps, teams haven’t had a lot of time to integrate new players, and have generally opted for as much continuity as possible.

Of course, while that may have been the general rule for the 2020 offseason, it certainly doesn’t apply to every team. A year ago, seven teams – including the eventual-champion Lakers – brought back just six players from their 2018/19 rosters. This time around, two clubs had that much turnover.

Of those two clubs, one – the Pistons – exhibited an impressive disregard for roster continuity, retaining just four players (Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Sekou Doumbouya, and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk) from last season’s roster. That’s the lowest number of returning players a team has had to start a season since the 2017 Celtics.

Here are the number of returning players for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, from most to fewest:

  1. Chicago Bulls: 14
    Indiana Pacers: 14
  2. Boston Celtics: 13
    Brooklyn Nets: 13
    Memphis Grizzlies: 13
    Miami Heat: 13
    San Antonio Spurs: 13
  3. Golden State Warriors: 12
    Orlando Magic: 12
  4. Cleveland Cavaliers: 11
    Los Angeles Clippers: 11
    Los Angeles Lakers: 11
    Minnesota Timberwolves: 11
    New York Knicks: 11
    Sacramento Kings: 11
    Toronto Raptors: 11
    Utah Jazz: 11
    Washington Wizards: 11
  5. Charlotte Hornets: 10
    Dallas Mavericks: 10
    Denver Nuggets: 10
  6. Portland Trail Blazers: 9
  7. Atlanta Hawks: 8
    Houston Rockets: 8
    New Orleans Pelicans: 8
    Phoenix Suns: 8
  8. Milwaukee Bucks: 7
    Philadelphia 76ers: 7
  9. Oklahoma City Thunder: 6
  10. Detroit Pistons: 4
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2020 NBA Rookie Scale Extension Recap

December 22nd, 2020 at 8:02am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s annual deadline for rookie scale contract extensions passed on Monday, with a flurry of deals completed just before time ran out. In total, 10 players eligible for rookie scale extensions signed new contracts this year.

We’ve seen an uptick in rookie scale extensions over the last couple years, but 2020 still represents an impressive high water-mark after 2019 featured nine such extensions. The last time as many as 10 rookie scale extensions were completed in a single league year was back in 2006, when players like LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh were signing their second NBA contracts.

Here’s a breakdown of the 10 rookie scale extensions signed before this year’s deadline, sorted by total value. In cases where we haven’t yet seen the official contract terms for the extension, we’re basing our figures on the latest reports. These deals will go into effect beginning in 2021/22:

  • Donovan Mitchell (Jazz): Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $163,000,590. Projected value can increase to $195,600,710 if Mitchell earns All-NBA honors in 2021. Includes fifth-year player option and 15% trade kicker.
  • Jayson Tatum (Celtics): Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $163,000,590. Projected value can increase to $195,600,710 if Tatum earns All-NBA honors in 2021. Includes fifth-year player option and 15% trade kicker.
  • Bam Adebayo (Heat): Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $163,000,590. Projected value can increase to $195,600,710 if Adebayo earns MVP honors in 2021 ($185,820,675 for All-NBA First Team; $179,300,645 for Defensive Player of the Year).
  • De’Aaron Fox (Kings): Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $163,000,590. Projected value can increase to $195,600,710 if Fox earns First Team All-NBA honors in 2021 ($182,560,660 for Second Team; $169,522,180 for Third Team).
  • OG Anunoby (Raptors): Four years, $72,000,000 (story). Includes fourth-year player option.
  • Derrick White (Spurs): Four years, $70,000,000 (story). Includes $5MM in incentives.
  • Jonathan Isaac (Magic): Four years, $69,600,000 (story). Includes $10.4MM in incentives and Exhibit 3 injury protection.
  • Luke Kennard (Clippers): Four years, $56,000,000 (story). Includes $8MM in incentives and a fourth-year team option.
  • Markelle Fultz (Magic): Three years, $50,000,000 (story). Includes $3MM in incentives and partial guarantee in third year.
  • Kyle Kuzma (Lakers): Three years, $39,000,000 (story). Includes third-year player option.

The first four extensions on this list were completed relatively early in the offseason and didn’t come as a surprise. Mitchell, Tatum, Adebayo, and Fox are considered crucial franchise building blocks for their respective teams, and there was no point in getting cute by waiting until the 2021 offseason to lock them up, since all four teams were prepared to offer the max.

The other six deals were arguably more interesting, since non-maximum-salary rookie scale extensions are generally trickier to negotiate.

The Spurs and Raptors, for instance, had to weigh how much they wanted to prioritize maximizing their cap room in 2021. Both teams cut into their projected room slightly by finalizing extensions with their respective fourth-year players, but that trade-off will be worth it if White and Anunoby have breakout seasons in 2020/21. Several other teams around the NBA will have significant cap room as well, and would’ve been in position to give those players more lucrative offer sheets.

The Lakers and Clippers each projected to be over the cap in 2021, so they were in position to negotiate new deals for their fourth-year players without really worrying about reducing their flexibility for next offseason.

While I don’t particularly love either Kennard’s or Kuzma’s new contract from a team perspective, I understand why each team felt compelled to act now. Kennard is an elite shooter who could’ve received offers in the range of Joe Harris (four years, $72MM) or Davis Bertans (five years, $80MM) if he stays healthy and has a nice year in Los Angeles. As for Kuzma, he’s only receiving a little more than the mid-level and it’s not a long commitment — that’s a relatively safe investment, and a deal he would’ve topped with a strong bounce-back 2020/21 season.

The Magic, meanwhile, completed perhaps the two most curious deals of the extension period, committing $80MM to Isaac, who will be out for the season with a torn ACL, and $50MM to Fultz, who has had one healthy season in the NBA and is a career 26.7% three-point shooter.

While Orlando may end up regretting one or both deals, I definitely don’t hate them. Isaac looked like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate before he got hurt last season, and would’ve been in line for a contract much closer to the max if he had stayed healthy. If the Magic feel good about his ability to make a full recovery, that deal will pay off in its later years.

As for Fultz, Orlando protected itself to some extent with a final-year team option, and frankly didn’t even give the former No. 1 pick that significant a raise — he’ll earn $12.3MM in the final year of his rookie contract in 2020/21. The contract isn’t long enough or expensive enough to ever become a real albatross if Fultz regresses or deals with more health issues. If he develops like the Magic believe he can – they reportedly feel as if he’s capable of become an “upper-echelon point guard” – it’ll be a bargain, though that’s a big if.

While 10 players signed rookie scale extensions, that leaves 13 players who were eligible for a new deal and didn’t get one (a 14th, T.J. Leaf, was waived by the Thunder on Saturday). Here’s the list of those players, who are now eligible to become restricted free agents during the 2021 offseason, assuming they finish their current contracts:

The most interesting names here are Allen, Ball, Collins (both of them), and Markkanen.

The lack of a new deal made some sense for Markkanen and the Collinses — the Bulls forward had a down year in 2019/20, while the Hawks‘ Collins missed 25 games due to a suspension and the Trail Blazers‘ Collins missed most of the season due to an ankle injury. All three players likely feel they can increase their value by staying on the court and playing to their full potential this season.

Ball also has an injury history, having missed some time in each of his three NBA seasons, so the Pelicans may have wanted another year to assess him — Ball’s agent Rich Paul also generally prefers to take his clients to free agency.

As for Allen, the Nets‘ financial situation may have played a part in the club’s decision to hold off on an extension. The team already has over $140MM in salaries on its books for 2021/22. Not extending Allen will also make it simpler to include him in a trade this season if the right deal arises. The poison pill provision would’ve applied if he’d inked a new contract, meaning he would’ve had significantly different outgoing and incoming cap figures, making salary-matching more challenging.

All of these players will be well positioned to land a big payday if they have big years in 2020/21, since there the 2021 free agent market lost plenty of talent due to all this year’s extensions and several teams still project to have big chunks of cap space.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020/21 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division

December 21st, 2020 at 9:22am CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will get underway on Tuesday, so it’s time to get serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

Of course, there are plenty of wild cards to take into account this season. For one, teams are scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, so if you’re picking a team to win 41 games, you’re not just expecting them to be a .500 club — you’re projecting them to finish 10 games above .500. For each team’s over/under below, we’ve noted the record they’d have to achieve to finish “over” their projection, as a reminder.

It’s also worth noting that the coronavirus pandemic could cause some games to be canceled in 2020/21. We don’t want you to have to take possible cancellations into account when making your picks though, so don’t let that stop you from taking the “over.” If a team has a couple games canceled, we’ll adjust their over/under figure downward, so you’re essentially just projecting that team’s winning percentage.

We’ll wrap things up by heading to the Southwest…

Dallas Mavericks

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Mavericks poll.

New Orleans Pelicans

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Pelicans poll.

Houston Rockets

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Rockets poll.

Memphis Grizzlies

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Grizzlies poll.

San Antonio Spurs

Trade Rumors app users, click here for Spurs poll.

Previous voting results:

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
  • Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
  • New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (44.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • Utah Jazz (42.5 wins): Over (59.9%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): Over (70.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (29.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Under (64.4%)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (51.5 wins): Over (73.7%)
  • Indiana Pacers (39.5 wins): Over (57.9%)
  • Chicago Bulls (29.5 wins): Under (61.6%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (23.5 wins): Under (68.5%)
  • Detroit Pistons (22.5 wins): Over (53.9%)

Pacific:

  • Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): Over (79.1%)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (47.5 wins): Under (50.4%)
  • Phoenix Suns (40.5 wins): Over (51.0%)
  • Golden State Warriors (38.5 wins): Over (60.3%)
  • Sacramento Kings (29.5 wins): Under (60.7%)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Over (67.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (36.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): Under (50.7%)
  • Orlando Magic (31.5 wins): Under (73.5%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (26.5 wins): Over (56.3%)
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Contract, Roster Deadlines Loom For NBA Teams

December 21st, 2020 at 8:07am CST by Luke Adams

We’re one day away from the start of the NBA’s 2020/21 regular season, making Monday the last day of the 2020 offseason. Today serves as the deadline for a number of contract- and roster-related decisions around the league. Here are the most important ones:

Rookie Scale Extensions

A total of 24 players entered the offseason eligible for rookie scale extensions. Five of those players – Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, De’Aaron Fox, and Kyle Kuzma – have already signed new deals. That leaves the following 19 players eligible to sign rookie scale extensions on Monday:

Most of these players won’t sign new deals until the 2021 offseason, when they’re eligible for restricted free agency. But it would be a surprise if at least one or two more players from this list don’t finalize rookie scale extensions today, With Allen, Anunoby, Ball, John Collins, Fultz, and White among the most viable candidates.

The deadline for rookie scale extensions is at 5:00pm central time, ESPN’s Bobby Marks confirms (via Twitter).

Certain Veteran Contract Extensions

A veteran player who signed his current contract at least two years ago (or three years ago if it was a five-year deal) is eligible to sign an extension. That means that many veterans around the NBA are eligible to sign contract extensions today, but that number will significantly drop as of tomorrow.

Once the regular season begins, only veterans in the final year of their contracts can sign extensions — a player that has multiple years remaining is no longer extension-eligible until the following offseason.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Veteran Contract Extension]

In other words, players like Stephen Curry or T.J. Warren, who are under contract through 2021/22, could sign an extension today that covers up to three additional seasons. However, starting on Tuesday, they’ll be ineligible to sign an extension until the 2021 offseason.

An extension candidate like Jrue Holiday, who has a player option for 2021/22, could still sign a new deal during the season, but he’d have to eliminate that option to do so. Picking it up would make him ineligible to complete an extension until the 2021 offseason after today.

The deadline for veteran extensions for players on non-expiring contracts is at 10:59pm CT tonight.

Regular Season Rosters

Most teams around the NBA finalized their roster cuts on Saturday for financial reasons, as we explained over the weekend. However, the deadline to reduce offseason rosters to the regular season limit of 15 players on standard contracts (plus two on two-way contracts) arrives tonight.

Typically, the regular season roster deadline would fall at 4:00pm CT. This year, as Marks tweets, it’s at 10:00pm CT. The NBA adjusted the waiver deadline for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday in order to accommodate the preseason games that took place on Saturday night — teams that participated in those games were still able to cut players afterward and have those players clear waivers tonight.

While it’s certainly possible that there will be some additional roster shuffling today as teams tweak their back-end roster spots or fill two-way openings, only two teams – the Thunder and Kings – absolutely have to make cuts, as we detailed on Sunday.

The final day of the offseason is also the last day for teams to convert Exhibit 10 contracts into two-way deals. However, after Yuta Watanabe, Brodric Thomas, Reggie Perry, Marques Bolden, and Max Strus had their Exhibit 10 deals converted into two-ways over the weekend, I don’t think there are any candidates left for this maneuver.

Finally, Monday is the last day for a free agent to be signed-and-traded. There has been no indication that any potential sign-and-trades are in the works though.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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