Hoops Rumors Originals

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

November 13th, 2020 at 11:43am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Los Angeles Lakers.

Salary Cap Outlook

Five Lakers starters or rotation players hold options for 2020/21, while multiple others are free agents. As a result, it’s a little tricky to pin down where team salary will land. We can start with accounting for the team’s five guaranteed contracts and the cap hold for its first-round pick — those total about $70MM. A new max salary for Anthony Davis will come in at $32.7MM, so we can safely assume the Lakers will operate as an over-the-cap club.

If the Lakers need to give Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Rajon Rondo sizeable raises, team salary could approach the tax line, in which case the club would be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM). But if Los Angeles is willing to let a free agent or two go – or gets them back on team-friendly deals – then the full MLE ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) could be in play.

Our full salary cap preview for the Lakers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Anthony Davis, player option: $28,751,774
- Note: Davis will reportedly decline his option.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, player option: $8,543,746
- Note: Caldwell-Pope will reportedly decline his option.
Avery Bradley, player option: $5,005,350
JaVale McGee, player option: $4,200,000
Rajon Rondo, player option: $2,692,991
- Note: Rondo will reportedly decline his option.

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Quinn Cook ($3,000,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.

Two-Way Contracts:

Kostas Antetokounmpo (expiring)

Free Agents:

Dwight Howard (Non-Bird)
Markieff Morris (Non-Bird)
Jared Dudley (Non-Bird)
Dion Waiters (Non-Bird)
J.R. Smith (N/A)
- Note: Smith won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 28 overall pick

Second Round:

None

While the Lakers retained their own first-round pick, their second-rounder (No. 58) belongs to the Sixers. L.A. originally sent that pick to Orlando last June in a deal for Talen Horton-Tucker; the Magic flipped it to Philadelphia at the trade deadline for James Ennis.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will Anthony Davis‘ new contract look like?

A year ago, there was plenty of drama entering free agency about where top free agents like Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant would ultimately land. For Davis, this year’s No. 1 free agent, that drama is essentially nonexistent — he forced a trade to the Lakers from New Orleans a year ago, then won a title with his new club this fall. Why would he leave?

Still, it won’t simply be a matter of exercising his player option to stick around. If he opts out, Davis can comfortably exceed the $28.75MM he’d earn by opting in. As such, he has already signaled his intention to turn down that option.

On his new deal with the Lakers, Davis will earn a maximum salary of $32.74MM in 2020/21, but the length and structure of that contract are still question marks. Although the seven-time All-Star could lock in nearly $190MM in guaranteed money by signing a five-year contract with L.A., I suspect he’ll avoid that option, preferring to maintain some flexibility over the next couple years — not so he can eventually leave the Lakers, but so he can maximize his earnings going forward.

Signing a two-year contract that has a player option in year two would line up Davis’ contract with LeBron James‘. It would also secure him an 8% raise for 2021/22, when the cap may increase by as little as 3%. That’s a realistic and potentially favorable option for AD.

The other most viable option would be a three-year pact with a third-year player option. That would ensure that when Davis gets the chance to opt out in 2022, he’ll have 10 years of NBA experience under his belt, meaning he’ll be eligible to receive a starting salary worth 35% of the cap. Even if the cap only increases by 3% annually for the next two years, that would put Davis in line to sign a five-year contract that starts at $40.5MM in 2022/23 and has a total value of $235MM.

Davis’ decision will ultimately come down to his priorities. Signing a one-plus-one contract and going year to year puts him in the best position to maximize his earnings and his flexibility, but it also means potentially dealing with free agency every year. If he doesn’t want to bother with that, a two-plus-one deal might be the move. If he really doesn’t want to be distracted by impending free agency anytime soon, a five-year pact is possible, but I think that’s probably a long shot.

2. Can the Lakers bring back all their key free agents while using their mid-level to add another productive player?

The Lakers are a lock to re-sign Davis, but what about the role players who came up big during the team’s championship run, like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Rajon Rondo? Both veteran guards are expected to turn down their player options in search of new deals, and they’ll definitely be in line for raises after taking up just over $10MM in cap space in 2019/20.

It’s hard to pin down exactly how much KCP’s and Rondo’s next contracts will be worth. I don’t expect major bidding wars on too many free agents this fall, but rival teams might want to put pressure on the defending champions by making aggressive offers for the Lakers’ most important free agents.

ESPN’s Bobby Marks estimates a starting salary in the $12-14MM range for Caldwell-Pope and $4-6MM for Rondo, so let’s project it takes about $20MM to bring both players back.

Even if we assume the Lakers waive-and-stretch Quinn Cook and don’t use their first-round pick, that still puts team salary above $120MM for just eight players, and doesn’t account for the possibility that JaVale McGee ($4.2MM) and Avery Bradley ($5MM) will both exercise their player options. It also doesn’t include salaries for Dwight Howard or Markieff Morris, who will both be free agents too.

Ideally, the Lakers would like to be able to use the full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception. It’s worth $9.3MM, which should be enough to bring in a valuable rotation piece this fall, since only a small handful of clubs have cap room. But L.A.’s team salary would be hard-capped at $138.9MM if the organization uses more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level ($5.7MM), so that doesn’t leave a whole lot of breathing room.

Still, there are ways the Lakers may be able to create enough flexibility to use the full MLE. If McGee or Bradley opts out, that would help. Jettisoning one of Caldwell-Pope or Rondo would too, though that’s not an ideal solution. The Lakers could also shed some salary in a trade, perhaps by moving Danny Green‘s expiring $15MM+ contract, but that may be a trade chip better used in a swap for an impact player rather than in a salary-dump deal.

The Lakers’ best hope of bringing back most of their key free agents while maintaining enough flexibility to bring in another good player with the MLE is that veterans are willing to take a bit of a discount to contend for another title in L.A.

If, for instance, Caldwell-Pope and Rondo only cost a combined $15MM and Howard is willing to sign another minimum-salary deal, that extra bit of flexibility could make a big difference for the Lakers. And if there’s a useful veteran out there willing to play for the taxpayer MLE rather than the full $9.3MM, that’d be a bonus, since the hard cap would be of no concern.

The Lakers’ free agency puzzle will be a tricky one to solve, especially since Howard and Morris only have Non-Bird rights, preventing the team from giving them much of a raise. But if one or two things break right for the franchise, the other pieces could fall into place in short order.

3. Could a trade package of Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, and the No. 28 pick bring back an impact player?

Given the construction of the Lakers’ roster, Green, Kuzma, and their first-round pick are probably the team’s most expendable pieces in a potential trade. Green and Kuzma are on expiring deals, and Kuzma wasn’t a particularly great fit alongside fellow power forwards James and Davis. Plus, a title-contending team probably doesn’t need to add a late-first-round rookie who would have a hard time cracking the rotation.

On the surface, it looks like a pretty appealing package for a potential trade partner. Green is a reliable three-and-D wing who has won multiple championships and has knocked down 40% of his career three-pointers. Kuzma is a 25-year-old who averaged 16.0 PPG in his first three NBA seasons and will cost just $3.6MM in 2020/21. And every NBA team would welcome a first-round pick that can be used to control a young player on an affordable contract for the next four years.

Still, there’s reason to believe the package wouldn’t be as valuable as the Lakers might hope. Green is now 33 years old and has struggled with his outside shot in each of the last two postseasons, forcing the Raptors and the Lakers to cut back his minutes in the 2019 and 2020 Finals. He’s also the sort of player who would primarily appeal to a playoff team, and it’s probably safe to assume not many of those teams would be looking to send an impact player to L.A.

As for Kuzma, he put up nice scoring numbers on the Lakers’ lottery-bound teams in his first two seasons, but had more trouble carving out a role in 2019/20. He’s not a good enough shooter (.308 3PT% over the last two seasons) to reliably space the floor, and he’s not a particularly strong defender either. He’s also headed for restricted free agency in 2021, meaning a team that acquires him would be responsible for giving him a significant raise a year from now.

The No. 28 pick, meanwhile, is a useful asset, given the relatively strong depth of this year’s draft class. But that late in the first round, it’s probably unreasonable to expect that pick to turn into anything more than a solid role player.

It’s not a package that would get the Lakers’ foot in the door for a player like Jrue Holiday, but it might be enough for a distressed asset. I think the Pacers would probably want more for Victor Oladipo, but if they’re genuinely concerned about his health and his impact on Indiana’s locker room, they could do worse than Green, Kuzma, and a first-rounder.

The Green/Kuzma duo has also been mentioned as the start of a package for Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan, which would be interesting. DeRozan, a Los Angeles native, would give the Lakers some scoring punch beyond LeBron and AD, and there’s enough defensive talent on the roster to cover up his shortcomings on that end of the floor. If San Antonio is pivoting to a rebuild, reuniting with Green while acquiring Kuzma and a first-rounder would be a decent return for DeRozan’s expiring deal, though L.A. would have to include a little more salary for matching purposes.

Green and Kuzma each played regular roles for this year’s championship team, and the Lakers have exhibited a knack for getting value late in the first round of drafts, so if they hang onto their assets, they’ll be fine. But if they make a move on the trade market, it’s a good bet that some or all of those pieces will be part of a deal.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Spurs’ Offseason Plans

November 11th, 2020 at 5:52pm CST by Luke Adams

While some NBA teams’ offseason checklists are fairly straightforward, there are a handful of clubs that could realistically go in any number of directions with their rosters in the next couple weeks.

The Spurs are one of those clubs. After seeing their streak of postseason appearances snapped this summer, San Antonio will have to decide what to do with veterans like DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Rudy Gay, all of whom will be on pricey expiring contracts in 2020/21, assuming DeRozan exercises his player option.

San Antonio’s books are nearly entirely clear of veteran contracts beyond 2021, and the team has a promising young core of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker, Keldon Johnson, and Luka Samanic to build around. If the front office decides to accelerate the rebuilding process, it could do so by moving some of those veterans.

The Spurs don’t typically make blockbuster trades unless their hand is forced (as in the case of Kawhi Leonard two summers ago). A typical offseason in San Antonio would probably involve hanging onto their veterans, perhaps extending DeRozan and re-signing restricted free agent Jakob Poeltl, and betting on internal improvement to help the club return to playoff contention.

However, multiple NBA reporters are suggesting that the Spurs may have something bigger in mind this fall. Within his mock draft on Tuesday, John Hollinger of The Athletic wrote of “unusually large plumes of smoke” coming out of San Antonio for a team that is “normally church-mouse quiet.”

Today, draft analyst and former agent Matt Babcock tweeted that there’s a “growing sense” in league circles that the Spurs are up to “something big.” Keith Smith of RealGM (Twitter link) has also heard from multiple teams that the Spurs are “up to something” and that they’re talking to more people than usual.

It’s hard to know yet whether all of this smoke means there will be any fire next week — or what exactly San Antonio might have up its sleeve. A trade involving Aldridge or DeRozan would be the most obvious way for the club to make a splash, and there has been a little Aldridge chatter, at least. A deal involving one of the younger players shouldn’t be ruled out either, if the Spurs aren’t sold on all of them being long-term building blocks.

It’s also worth noting that the Spurs hold a lottery pick (No. 11) for the first time in over two decades. The last time San Antonio drafted a player in the lottery was in 1997, when the team used the top pick on Tim Duncan. The last time the franchise made a draft-night trade to acquire a prospect picked in the top half of the first round was in 2011 for Leonard.

It’s probably safe to say this year’s selection won’t become a Duncan or Leonard, but if San Antonio has zeroed in on a specific 2020 prospect, the organization is in far better position than usual to land that player, even if it means trade up a few spots.

What do you think? Do you expect a fairly quiet offseason in San Antonio or do you think the Spurs could make some noise this month? If you’re expecting bigger moves, what do you suspect the team has in mind?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

NBA Minimum Salaries For 2020/21

November 10th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Most NBA clubs will enter this year’s free agent period without any cap room, but each of the league’s 30 franchises will be on common ground in one respect: No team will be ineligible to sign a player to a minimum salary contract.

Teams with cap room available will have a little more flexibility to sign players to longer-term minimum salary contracts, but over-the-cap clubs will still be able to use the minimum salary exception to add as many players as roster limits allow, for contracts of up to two years. Unlike other exceptions, such as the mid-level or the bi-annual, the minimum salary exception can be used multiple times.

Undrafted free agents and late second-round picks are often recipients of minimum salary contracts, but there are plenty of veterans who end up settling for the minimum too. Because a player’s minimum salary is determined by how much NBA experience he has, many veterans will earn more than twice as much money as a rookie will in 2020/21 on a minimum salary contract.

Listed below are 2020/21’s minimum salary figures, sorted by years of NBA experience. If a player spent any time on an NBA club’s active regular season roster in a given season, he earned one year of experience. So any player with zero years of experience has not yet made his NBA debut.

These figures are the same as in 2019/20, since the NBA has artificially set its ’20/21 salary cap to match last season’s.

Here’s the full breakdown:

Years of Experience	Salary
0	$898,310
1	$1,445,697
2	$1,620,564
3	$1,678,854
4	$1,737,145
5	$1,882,867
6	$2,028,594
7	$2,174,318
8	$2,320,044
9	$2,331,593
10+	$2,564,753

Because the NBA doesn’t want teams to avoid signing veteran players in favor of cheaper, younger players, the league reimburses clubs who sign veterans with three or more years of experience to one-year, minimum salary contracts. Those deals will only count against the cap – and against a team’s bank balance – for $1,620,564, the minimum salary for a player with two years of experience.

For instance, if Courtney Lee – who has 12 years of NBA experience – signs a one-year, minimum salary contract with a new team, that team would only be charged $1,620,564 for Lee’s contract. He’d earn $2,564,753, but the NBA would make up the difference. This only applies to one-year contracts, rather than multiyear deals.

If a player signs a minimum salary contract after the regular season begins, he’ll earn a pro-rated portion of the amount listed above. Those figures also only apply to players who are signing new contracts in 2020/21. Players who are in the second, third, or fourth year of a minimum salary deal will be earning a slightly different predetermined amount.

For instance, a player like Raptors guard Terence Davis, who has one year of NBA experience, will be earning a $1,517,981 salary in the second year of his contract, exceeding the $1,445,697 he’d receive if he were signing a new minimum deal this fall. More details on multiyear minimum contracts can be found at RealGM.

Values Of 2020/21 Mid-Level, Bi-Annual Exceptions

November 10th, 2020 at 11:49am CST by Luke Adams

The salary cap for the 2020/21 NBA league year has officially been set, with the league announcing that the cap will be $109,140,000 — the same as it was in ’19/20.

Under the league’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement, the values of the mid-level, room, and bi-annual exceptions are tied to the percentage that the salary cap shifts in a given year. Because the cap figure for 2020/21 doesn’t represent an increase or decrease, the values of the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions won’t increase or decrease either.

Listed below are the maximum annual and total values of each of these exceptions, along with a brief explanation of how they work and which teams will have access to them.

Mid-Level Exception (Non-Taxpayer):

Year	Salary
2020/21	$9,258,000
2021/22	$9,720,900
2022/23	$10,183,800
2023/24	$10,646,700
Total	$39,809,400

The non-taxpayer mid-level exception is the primary tool available for over-the-cap teams to add free agents. As long as a team hasn’t dipped below the cap to use cap space and doesn’t go over the tax apron ($138,928,000) at all, it can use this MLE, which runs for up to four years with 5% annual raises.

Mid-Level Exception (Taxpayer):

Year	Salary
2020/21	$5,718,000
2021/22	$6,003,900
2022/23	$6,289,800
Total	$18,011,700

If an over-the-cap team currently projects to be a taxpayer, or expects to move into tax territory later in the 2020/21 season, it will have access to this smaller mid-level exception for taxpaying teams.

If a team uses more than $5,718,000 of its mid-level exception, it is forbidden from surpassing the tax apron at any time during the league year. So even if a team isn’t above the apron when it uses its MLE, it might make sense to play it safe by avoiding using the full MLE and imposing a hard cap.

The taxpayer MLE can be used to sign a player for up to three years, with 5% annual raises.

Room Exception:

Year	Salary
2020/21	$4,767,000
2021/22	$5,005,350
Total	$9,772,350

Although this is also a mid-level exception of sorts, it’s colloquially known as the “room” exception, since it’s only available to teams that go below the cap and use their cap room.

If a club goes under the cap, it loses its full mid-level exception, but gets this smaller room exception, which allows the team to go over the cap to sign a player once the team has used up all its cap space. It can be used to sign players for up to two years, with a 5% raise for the second season.

Bi-Annual Exception:

Year	Salary
2020/21	$3,623,000
2021/22	$3,804,150
Total	$7,427,150

The bi-annual exception, as its name suggests, is only available to teams once every two years. Of the NBA’s 30 clubs, only four – the Mavericks, Grizzlies, Pistons, and Raptors – used it in 2019/20, so they won’t have access to it in 2020/21. The league’s other 26 teams could theoretically use it this season.

Still, even if a team didn’t use its BAE in ’19/20, that club doesn’t necessarily have access to it for the coming year. As is the case with the non-taxpayer MLE, this exception disappears once a team goes under the cap. It’s also not available to teams over the tax apron — using the BAE creates a hard cap at the apron.

The BAE can be used to sign players for up to two years, with a 5% raise after year one.

Note: Be sure to check out our Hoops Rumors Glossary installments for more information on the mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception.

NBA Maximum Salaries For 2020/21

November 10th, 2020 at 10:47am CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA has set its salary cap for the 2020/21 league year at $109,140,000, we have a clear idea of what maximum-salary contracts will look like for the coming season. Conveniently, with the cap unchanged from 2019/20, this year’s max deals will look a whole lot like last year’s.

We’ll likely soon be able to apply these numbers to contracts for free agents Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram. They’re also relevant for players who signed maximum-salary extensions in 2019 that will go into effect in ’20/21, such as Jamal Murray.

Listed below are the maximum-salary contracts for players signing contracts that start in 2020/21. The first chart shows the maximum salaries for a player re-signing with his own team — a player’s previous team can offer five years instead of four, and 8% annual raises instead of 5% raises. The second chart shows the maximum salaries for a player signing with a new team.

A player’s maximum salary is generally determined by his years of NBA experience, so there’s a wide gap between potential earnings for younger and older players. In the charts below, the “6 years or less” column details the maximum contracts for players like Ingram and Murray; the “7-9 years” column applies to free agents like Davis; and the “10+ years” column applies to the league’s most experienced vets, none of whom are particularly strong candidates for max deals this fall.

Here are the maximum salary figures for 2020/21:

A player re-signing with his own team (8% annual raises, up to five years):

Year	6 years or less	7-9 years	10+ years
2020/21	$27,285,000	$32,742,000	$38,199,000
2021/22	$29,467,800	$35,361,360	$41,254,920
2022/23	$31,650,600	$37,980,720	$44,310,840
2023/24	$33,833,400	$40,600,080	$47,366,760
2024/25	$36,016,200	$43,219,440	$50,422,680
Total	$158,253,000	$189,903,600	$221,554,200

A player signing with a new team (5% annual raises, up to four years):

Year	6 years or less	7-9 years	10+ years
2020/21	$27,285,000	$32,742,000	$38,199,000
2021/22	$28,649,250	$34,379,100	$40,108,950
2022/23	$30,013,500	$36,016,200	$42,018,900
2023/24	$31,377,750	$37,653,300	$43,928,850
Total	$117,325,500	$140,790,600	$164,255,700

There’s also one last category of maximum salary worth outlining for 2020/21. Sixers guard/forward Ben Simmons and Raptors forward Pascal Siakam both signed rookie scale extensions last year that would have been worth the maximum allowable starting salary for players with their experience level (25% of the cap).

However, because Rose Rule language was written into each player’s contract, and both Simmons and Siakam made All-NBA teams in 2020, they’ll be eligible for a slightly higher starting salary worth 28% of the cap. It’s a sort of pseudo-max, since the two stars could technically have received up to 30% of the cap in 2020/21 if they’d made the All-NBA First Team.

Here’s what Simmons’ five-year deal and Siakam’s four-year pact will look like:

Year	Ben Simmons	Pascal Siakam
2020/21	$30,559,200	$30,559,200
2021/22	$33,003,936	$33,003,936
2022/23	$35,448,672	$35,448,672
2023/24	$37,893,408	$37,893,408
2024/25	$40,338,144	—
Total	$177,243,360	$136,905,216

Finally, it’s worth noting that none of the maximum-salary figures listed above will apply to extension-eligible players whose new contracts would start in 2021/22.

This group includes players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is eligible for a super-max extension with the Bucks. It also includes veterans who have already signed maximum-salary extensions, like Damian Lillard with the Trail Blazers, and players who could sign rookie scale extensions in the coming weeks, such as Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Kings guard De’Aaron Fox.

Even if they sign new deals sooner rather than later, the exact value of their next contracts will depend on where the cap lands for ’21/22. The NBA has announced that the cap for next year could increase anywhere from 3-10% on this season’s figure, so there’s still a wide range of possible values for those future deals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: 72-Game Schedule

November 7th, 2020 at 7:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

For decades, there have been complaints that the NBA’s season is too long. Playing 82 games dilutes the product, critics claim, and lessens the importance of each one. It also creates a marathon atmosphere that presents a high risk of injury and causes players to sometimes seem unmotivated.

People who have wanted to see the league try a shorter schedule are about to get their wish. After the chaos caused last season by the pandemic, the NBA and its players union have agreed to take steps toward a normal timeline by adopting a 72-game schedule that will start December 22.

Details on how those 72 games will be allocated still have to be worked out. The NBA hopes to reduce travel during the upcoming season, so games between teams from the Eastern and Western conferences could be reduced or even eliminated. An All-Star break is still expected in March, although it hasn’t been determined if it will include normal All-Star Weekend activities. A play-in tournament could also be adopted.

If the upcoming season is successful, the league may attempt to keep the shorter schedule, writes Jabari Young of CNBC.

“I would argue, with a leap of faith, that we’ll never see 82 again,” said Tony Ponturo, CEO of Ponturo Management Group, a marketing consulting firm. “It’s going to be better across the board of quality basketball and healthier athletes. You take the (revenue) hit and figure out how to make it up in other ways.”

Young also cites comments from NBA president of operations Byron Spruell, who suggested at the Disney World complex that the league would be open to schedule changes if they result in a better product. Another idea being considered is adopting series schedules, much like Major League Baseball, to make road trips less exhausting.

“Having this experience around being on a campus, with health and safety first – there are a lot of learnings that make you think about,” Spruell said in August. “Is there something in between given where the pandemic might be next season, given the experience we’re seeing from our teams and players in this campus format? Is there something in between that we’ll be able to accomplish, too?”

The obvious concern with a shorter schedule is the lost revenue as each team has five fewer home games. Young cites several ways to make up the difference, including higher ticket prices as games become more scarce, increased revenue from the play-in games and additional sponsorship opportunities.

We want to get your opinion. Do you believe there would be a noticeable difference in the quality of play with a permanent 72-game schedule or would you prefer to see the league continue with its traditional 82-game slate? Please leave your answer in the comments section.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

November 6th, 2020 at 3:28pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

The Heat’s six guaranteed contracts, Kelly Olynyk‘s player option, non-guaranteed salaries for Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson, and the cap hold for their first-round pick add up to approximately $86MM. That means the team could theoretically open up about $22MM in cap room.

However, there are a number of free agents Miami may try to re-sign, starting with Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder. Unless all those free agents walk, the Heat will likely operate as an over-the-cap team, with the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) available. That will allow the club to retain its lone trade exception, worth about $7.5MM.

Our full salary cap preview for the Heat can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Kelly Olynyk, player option: $13,198,243

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Kendrick Nunn ($1,663,861)
Duncan Robinson ($1,663,861)

Two-Way Contracts:

Kyle Alexander (expiring)
Gabe Vincent (expiring)

Free Agents:

Goran Dragic (Bird)
Jae Crowder (Bird)
Derrick Jones (Bird)
Meyers Leonard (Bird)
Solomon Hill (Bird)
Udonis Haslem (Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 20 overall pick

Second Round:

None

The Heat still have their own first-round pick, but traded their second-rounder to the Celtics way back in 2015 in a deal that also sent Zoran Dragic to Boston. That pick (No. 50) changed hands many times over the years and ultimately landed with the Hawks as a result of their Dewayne Dedmon/Alex Len/Jabari Parker swap with Sacramento at last season’s trade deadline.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder, and the Heat’s other free agents be back?

Nearly half of the Heat’s 15-man roster is eligible for free agency this offseason, and while not all of those players need to be re-signed (Miami likely won’t push too hard for a new deal with Solomon Hill, for instance), a majority of them were key contributors at some point during the 2019/20 season. Dragic and Crowder are the two most important veterans in that group.

Dragic had a strong bounce-back season after an injury-plagued 2018/19, averaging 16.2 PPG and 5.1 APG on .441/.367/.776 shooting and taking over starting point guard duties from Kendrick Nunn in the postseason before going down with a foot injury. Crowder, meanwhile, emerged as one of the Heat’s most reliable contributors on the wing after being acquired in February, averaging 11.9 PPG with a .445 3PT% in 20 regular season games and taking on a number of big defensive assignments in the postseason.

Re-signing both players will be a priority, but the Heat are also prioritizing cap flexibility for the 2021 offseason, when they’d like to make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo or another star free agent. As such, the club will be reluctant to extend many – or perhaps any – multiyear contract offers this fall.

That might be okay with Dragic. At age 34, the veteran point guard is unlikely to receive strong multiyear offers from other suitors, and the Heat are in position to pay him a substantial amount on a one-year contract, perhaps even matching his $19MM salary from this past year. Even if Dragic gets two- or three-year offers in the mid-level range from other clubs, it probably makes more sense for him to accept a big one-year offer from Miami, then return to the free agent market in 2021.

Crowder may be a little trickier to retain. A strong defender who has the size and versatility to match up with opposing scorers, Crowder can also knock down outside shots pretty consistently, making him an easy fit in any system — and he’s four years younger than Dragic. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets three- or four-year offers from other playoff teams this fall.

The Heat could put a big one-year deal on the table for Crowder, but it might be hard for him to pass up long-term security if he gets an offer in, say, the four-year, $40MM range. Crowder’s free agency will depend in large part on what kind of offers are out there for him and whether those longer-term deals are lucrative enough to turn down a shorter-term commitment from Miami. I think he’s a little less likely to return to the Heat than Dragic is.

Of the Heat’s other free agents, it’s safe to say Udonis Haslem will be back on the team’s bench next season — at some point, he’ll probably do so in a coaching role, but as long as he wants to keep playing, a minimum-salary deal should be available for him in Miami.

Derrick Jones and Meyers Leonard played regular minutes for the Heat during the regular season, but saw their playing time dry up in the playoffs. Jones is still just 23 years old and may want an opportunity to spread his wings in a new situation, while Leonard has talked about wanting to play 20-25 minutes for whichever team signs him.

If they aren’t convinced there will be enough playing time to go around in Miami – and aren’t interested in signing for just one year – I wouldn’t expect them to be back. Jones, in particular, seems like a candidate to get a multiyear offer from a retooling team bullish on his youth and upside.

2. Will the Heat sign Bam Adebayo to a maximum-salary extension this offseason?

Avoiding multiyear free agent commitments this fall will be one way for the Heat to keep their cap as clean as possible for the 2021 offseason. Adebayo’s contract situation is another crucial wild card.

Coming off an impressive breakout season, Adebayo will be eligible later this month to sign a rookie scale extension which goes into effect in 2021/22. For players like Adebayo, who have already earned an All-Star nod and are likely to continue improving, a maximum-salary extension is virtually automatic. Teams prefer to get that business done as soon as they can, keeping their young stars happy and avoiding the possibility of an offer sheet in restricted free agency, so negotiations are usually quick and painless.

However, extending Adebayo early would significant eat into Miami’s projected cap room for the 2021 offseason. If we estimate a $112MM salary cap for ’21/22, a max-salary extension for Adebayo would start at $28MM (or more, if he meets Rose Rule criteria).

If Adebayo doesn’t sign an extension and instead reaches restricted free agency next summer, his temporary cap hold would be just $15.35MM. That means the Heat would have upwards of $13MM in additional cap room available. Once they use that space, they could go over the cap to re-sign Adebayo to a new contract that would be identical to the extension he could sign this offseason.

In theory, the Heat should have no problem convincing Adebayo to wait to sign his new deal. As long as the team plans to put the same offer on the table next year, he won’t lose a dollar by waiting. And his cooperation could clear a path for Miami to acquire a star teammate to play alongside him for the next few years, turning the club into a perennial title contender.

Still, a $150MM+ payday isn’t the sort of thing most players are particularly eager to wait on, especially if they’ve only earned a very small fraction of that amount so far in their professional careers. Adebayo may understand the Heat’s thinking, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be comfortable passing on life-changing money and risking the possibility of a career-threatening injury over the next eight months.

It’s a tough spot to put Adebayo in, and if he insists on being paid sooner rather than later, I don’t think the Heat will put up too much of a fight. Keeping their current stars happy is more of a priority than maintaining flexibility for new ones.

Plus, even if Adebayo’s new deal cuts into Miami’s cap room and prevents the club from opening up enough space for a maximum salary in 2021, that doesn’t mean signing a star is off the table. As we saw a year ago, when the Heat acquired Jimmy Butler in a sign-and-trade without having any cap space available, the front office is capable of getting creative and making it work if an All-Star really wants to come to South Beach.

3. Could the Heat go star hunting this year rather than waiting until 2021?

Given how many of the Heat’s offseason moves hinge on retaining cap flexibility in 2021, it’s fair to wonder if it makes sense for the team to pursue a star player now rather than waiting for another year. Miami won’t have max cap room this fall and the free agent market isn’t exactly loaded, but the trade market is an avenue the club could explore. And securing another impact player now would free up the organization to extend Adebayo and make more aggressive offers to free agents like Crowder.

The problem with that approach is that there’s virtually no chance the Bucks will consider trading Antetokounmpo, the Heat’s top target. Even if he doesn’t sign an extension, the only way Milwaukee would become inclined to move him is if he asks out, and I don’t see that happening.

As long as landing Giannis in free agency in 2021 remains possible, the Heat won’t want to give up on that chance. Still, there are potential trade candidates who may be free agents in ’21 themselves, which could appeal to Miami.

If, for instance, the Heat could pry Victor Oladipo away from the Pacers for a reasonable return, they’d be in position to re-sign him in 2021 if Giannis isn’t available. And if Antetokounmpo is in play in a year, Oladipo’s expiring contract wouldn’t get in the way of Miami’s pursuit.

On the other hand, if Antetokounmpo re-ups with the Bucks this fall, the Heat would have more flexibility to aggressively pursue a star on the trade market without worrying as much about their 2021 cap situation or the length of their trade target’s contract.

In that scenario, Jrue Holiday and especially Bradley Beal would likely be among Miami’s top targets. Holiday appears to be far more available than Beal, but I imagine the Heat would be willing to give up a more substantial haul for the Wizards’ star — Tyler Herro may be on the table for Beal, whereas I don’t think Miami would put him in an offer for Holiday.

Unlike other teams that have to rely primarily on the trade market to add impact players, the Heat can afford to wait until free agency to make a play for a star, knowing that Miami is among the league’s most desirable destinations. With that in mind, I’d be surprised if the Heat are overly aggressive on the trade market in the next few weeks, especially as long as Antetokounmpo remains on track to become a free agent in 2021.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Jrue Holiday

November 5th, 2020 at 8:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

With a moratorium in effect, the Pelicans can’t trade Jrue Holiday at the moment. However, they are reportedly listening to offers for the talented combo guard, who has two years left on his contract, including a $27.1MM player option for the 2021/22 season.

Holiday’s hefty $26.2MM salary for next season could be a stumbling block for potential suitors but there’s expected to be stiff competition for his services. William Guillory and other members of The Athletic staff provided their opinions on the teams most likely to pursue Holiday, concluding that the Nets, Pacers, Heat and Mavericks were the logical landing spots.

In search of third star or something close to it, the Nets could formulate a package that might include some combination of Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert and Taurean Prince and one or two first-round picks, The Athletic speculated. The Pacers could offer a deal featuring center Myles Turner, who has three years left on his contract, to make him Zion Williamson‘s frontcourt partner.

The Heat may have to part with postseason star Tyler Herro, salary filler, and a draft pick to entice the Pelicans. The Mavericks would presumably have strong interest in pairing Holiday with Luka Doncic but the potential return for New Orleans is tougher to figure — perhaps a package that includes Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry.

That leads us to our question of the day: If the Pelicans deal Holiday, where is he most likely to end up?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Community Shootaround: Next Head Coach In OKC

November 4th, 2020 at 9:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

While the other eight teams with head coaching vacancies this offseason have made their choices, the process continues in Oklahoma City. With the draft two weeks away, the Thunder still haven’t settled on a replacement for Billy Donovan.

The latest report is that Spurs assistant coach Will Hardy, Bucks assistant Charles Lee and Oklahoma City assistant Mark Daigneault are all receiving strong consideration after their interviews. Timberwolves associate head coach David Vanterpool, Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin, Thunder assistant Brian Keefe and Sydney Kings head coach Will Weaver have also been linked to the OKC opening.

Most of the big-name coaches are already off the market. However, the Thunder seem to be looking for a younger coach willing to oversee a rebuilding project, although it may be a short one. With Chris Paul reportedly on the trade market and Danilo Gallinari entering free agency, Oklahoma City appears ready to construct the team around a collection of young talent and the parcel of draft picks it received from the Clippers in last summer’s trade for Paul George.

The Thunder could have a surprise in store that doesn’t involve any of the above candidates, suggests Marc Stein of The New York Times. He calls it a “Prestian move,” referring to general manger Sam Presti, to hire someone who hasn’t been publicly connected to the job.

Considering the future assets on hand and the likely roster shakeup, who do you believe would be the best choice to guide the Thunder? Would it be one of the rumored candidates or someone else who is still available? Please leave your answer in the comments section.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

November 4th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

At first glance, the Celtics’ cap situation looks fairly comfortable, with about $95MM in guarantees committed to eight players.

However, that figure doesn’t include Gordon Hayward‘s $34MM+ option or Daniel Theis‘ $5MM non-guaranteed salary. Enes Kanter is also a candidate to pick up his $5MM option, and Boston would add another $7-8MM to its books by using its three first-round picks. With all those costs taken into account, the Celtics’ projected team salary jumps to $146MM+.

Boston could make some cost-cutting moves, including trading one or more of its three first-round picks. But this will be an expensive roster, and it seems like the Celtics will be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception (worth $5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Celtics can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Gordon Hayward, player option: $34,187,085
Enes Kanter, player option: $5,005,350
Semi Ojeleye, team option: $1,752,950
- Note: Salary doesn’t immediately become guaranteed if option is exercised.

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Daniel Theis ($5,000,000)
Javonte Green ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Tacko Fall (expiring)
Tremont Waters (expiring)

Free Agents:

Brad Wanamaker (RFA; Early Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 14 overall pick
No. 26 overall pick
No. 30 overall pick

Second Round:

No. 47 overall pick

After having held extra first-round picks for most of the last few years, the Celtics don’t have any surplus first-rounders beyond 2020. But they do have a pair of first-rounders besides their own (No. 26) this year.

The Grizzlies’ pick at No. 14 finally conveyed after being protected in the past — it was originally part of the deal that sent Jeff Green to Memphis in 2015. The Bucks’ pick (No. 30), meanwhile, was initially sent to Phoenix in 2017’s Eric Bledsoe swap. The Suns flipped it to Boston during last year’s draft in order to land Aron Baynes and Ty Jerome.

In the second round, the Celtics traded away their own pick (No. 56) as part of last year’s Terry Rozier/Kemba Walker sign-and-trade deal, so the Hornets have it now. But in that same trade, Boston acquired Brooklyn’s second-rounder (No. 47) from Charlotte.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Gordon Hayward be back with the Celtics?

Hayward’s contract with Boston includes a player option worth $34MM for the 2020/21 season, which means there are a number ways the offseason could play out for him.

If he opts into the final year of his contract, Hayward could simply return to the Celtics for another year before reaching free agency, he could be traded, or he could sign a longer-term extension with the team. If he opts out, he could sign outright with a new team, join a new team via sign-and-trade, or negotiate a new, longer-term deal with the C’s.

For most of the year, it looked like a no-brainer that Hayward would exercise his player option. He has no chance of matching his $34MM salary for ’20/21 on a new deal, and the list of teams with cap room will be extremely short. Opting to test the open market wouldn’t seem to make much sense for the veteran forward.

However, there has been some recent chatter, instigated by ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Bobby Marks, that Hayward’s agent Mark Bartelstein is quietly surveying the landscape to see what might be out there for his client. During that ESPN podcast, Marks suggested there’s a chance that Hayward and Bartelstein could go the Al Horford route. A year ago, Horford unexpectedly turned down a $30MM option with Boston and signed a four-year contract with Philadelphia that guaranteed him $97MM.

The opportunity to secure one last lucrative long-term deal was the right move for Horford, who was 33 years old when he reached free agency in 2019. Hayward is still just 30 and will probably be well positioned for a nice payday a year from now if he has a healthy, productive 2020/21 season, so there’s less urgency for him to seek long-term security this year — especially with so few potential suitors with cap room out there.

It’s also worth noting that when the Celtics let Horford go, it helped them accommodate the acquisition of Kemba Walker. If they’d matched Philadelphia’s offer for Horford, landing Walker while staying under the tax apron would’ve been a challenge. This time around, there wouldn’t be much of an upside to letting Hayward walk. It would help the C’s avoid the tax, but wouldn’t open up any extra cap room to sign a comparable replacement.

Taking those factors into account, I think Hayward is most likely to either pick up his option or sign a longer-term deal with Boston that reduces his 2020/21 cap charge. In either scenario, the Celtics could simply run it back with Hayward or explore their trade options (though they’d have to wait a few months if they sign him to a new free agent contract).

There’s no shortage of teams looking for wings with size, but the Celtics already have a couple good young ones in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, making Hayward somewhat expendable. If they can figure out a trade that sends out Hayward for a player who addresses a more pressing need on the roster – perhaps in the frontcourt – it would make sense to explore that possibility.

If Boston’s hypothetical trade partner is a team Hayward wouldn’t mind committing to long-term, a sign-and-trade would be another option worth considering. However, that scenario would require plenty of pre-free-agency communication between the two teams and Hayward’s camp to figure out the logistics.

2. What will the Celtics do with their three first-round draft picks?

The Celtics own the 14th, 26th, and 30th picks in what is considered a deep draft. If they were a rebuilding club, that would put them in a great position to add a couple potential long-term building blocks to their roster. But since Boston has title aspirations and a nearly-full roster, adding another three rookies to next year’s squad isn’t in the organization’s best interests.

As a result, it’s pretty safe to assume the Celtics won’t keep all three of those picks, or at least won’t use all of them on players for next year’s roster. That gives them a few options.

Trading one or two of those picks for a future first-rounder is one path the Celtics could take. They did that a year ago, sending the Ty Jerome pick to Phoenix in a deal for the first-rounder that became this year’s No. 30 selection.

Continuously rolling a pick over to the following draft is a good way to retain value and flexibility — if the Celtics want to fortify their roster at next year’s trade deadline, having an extra first-rounder available for a veteran could come in handy. Plus, after holding extra first-round picks for most of the last several years, the Celtics only have their own first-rounders beyond 2020. Flipping one or two of this year’s picks for future selections would help avoid having those coffers run dry.

Trading a pick or two in a deal for a veteran would be another option, but salary matching would be an issue in that scenario. The Celtics have no trade exceptions to take on salary.

Using a pick on a draft-and-stash player is one way to try to maximize the value of the pick without requiring a spot on next year’s roster. That approach hasn’t worked out especially well for Danny Ainge in recent years, but perhaps Serbian forward Aleksej Pokusevski (18th on ESPN’s big board) would have more NBA success than Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic did.

One of the most intriguing options for the Celtics – and one the team is reportedly exploring – would be to use all three picks in an attempt to move up in the draft to land an impact rookie who could contribute immediately and develop into a key future contributor.

Picks at or near the top of the draft are exponentially more valuable than those later on, so the Celtics shouldn’t expect to move into the top five by dangling Nos. 14, 26, and 30. Still, there could be a deal to be had in the middle of the lottery.

The Pistons, for instance, could badly use an influx of young talent and may be open to moving down to No. 14 if they don’t have a specific target in mind at No. 7 — and if they believe they can get good value with those two extra Boston picks at the end of the first round. It’s not clear which player the Celtics would be targeting if they move into the top 10, but Onyeka Okongwu and Tyrese Haliburton are among the mid-lottery options who might be of interest.

3. What will Jayson Tatum’s extension look like?

Tatum will become extension-eligible for the first time this offseason and there’s no question he’ll get a maximum-salary deal from the Celtics. But not all max deals are created equal. There are some details that the team will have to negotiate with Tatum’s camp that could be important down the road.

For one, the length of the contract will be critical. Of the three maximum-salary rookie scale extensions signed a year ago, two were for five years, while Pascal Siakam‘s was for just four. It’s safe to say the Celtics will push for five years without a fifth-year player option for Tatum, who would still just be 28 years old by the time a five-year extension expires in 2026.

The Rose Rule language in Tatum’s deal will also be critical. As we outline in our glossary entry on the subject, the Rose Rule allows a player with fewer than seven years of NBA experience to qualify for a higher maximum salary (up to 30% of the cap, rather than 25%) if he meets certain criteria. Making an All-NBA team allows a player to qualify for that higher max, and teams and players are permitted to negotiate various starting salaries between 25-30% depending on which specific All-NBA team a player makes.

Siakam, Ben Simmons, and Jamal Murray all negotiated this language into their extensions a year ago. Siakam, for instance, will earn 28% of the cap in 2020/21 because he made the All-NBA Second Team — if he had only made the Third Team, his max salary would’ve been worth 25% of the cap. Simmons, who had more player-friendly Rose Rule language in his deal, will also get a 28% max salary after making the Third Team. Murray wasn’t an All-NBA player, but could theoretically have earned up to a 30% max if he’d made the First Team.

Tatum is coming off an All-NBA Third Team nod of his own, and had a strong case for a Second Team spot. Will the Celtics be willing to give him a 30% max if he makes any All-NBA team again in 2021, or would they require a First Team spot to go that high?

While the difference may appear marginal on the surface, that extra money adds up over the course of a five-year deal. Based on a $115MM cap, a player who starts at 30% of the cap would earn about $33MM more over five years than a player starting at 25%.

With big-money long-term deals for Walker and Brown already on the books, the Celtics could also end up as a repeat taxpayer down the road, so if they’re able to save a little money on Tatum’s contract while still technically giving him a “max” deal, they might welcome that opportunity.

There’s little doubt that the Celtics and Tatum will hammer out an extension this fall, but if it doesn’t get done immediately when the new league year begins, it’s likely because the two sides are haggling over these under-the-radar details.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Load More Posts