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Community Shootaround: Start Of Next Season

October 26th, 2020 at 8:44pm CST by Dana Gauruder

It took a few extra months to get to the finish line of the 2019/20 season. The starting point of next season is now shrouded in mystery.

As we noted earlier today, there’s great uncertainty regarding next season’s schedule.

In June, the league projected a December 1 start to next season. In September, the league office told the league’s Board of Governors the season wouldn’t start until after Christmas. There were projections that the season might start as late as March.

That all changed during a Board of Governors meeting last week, as the league’s finance committee recommended a pre-Christmas start date. Naturally, Christmas Day is normally a showcase for the league with a handful of games spread throughout the holiday but the revenue concerns come more at the back end than the front end.

The restart playoffs were a TV ratings dud, as fans were not accustomed to watching regular season and postseason games during the summertime and early fall. There’s also a strong desire among the league’s power brokers to have some sense of normalcy by the 2021/22 season, with that season beginning with a usual starting point in late October.

However, selling the players on this plan won’t be a slam dunk, particularly among the playoff participants. During a TV interview on Monday, Lakers guard Danny Green predicted numerous players would sit out the early portion of the season, adding that “I wouldn’t expect [LeBron James] to be there for the first month of the season.”

A quick turnaround would also make it much less likely to have fans in the stands as well as shortening the free agency period following the November draft. On the flip side. an earlier start date could preserve as much as $500MM in revenue, according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania.

That leads us to our question of the day: Should the NBA start next season around Christmas in order to finish earlier in the summer? Or should the league wait until later in the winter in order to give the players more rest and increase the chances of having fans in the stands?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

October 26th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Salary Cap Outlook

Taking into account their eight players with guaranteed salaries and the cap hold for the first-round pick, the Bucks already have $116MM in commitments on their books for 2020/21, so they’ll be over the cap.

There are some other wild cards to consider here, including Ersan Ilyasova‘s non-guaranteed $7MM salary, a pair of player options, and the Bucks’ desire to add an impact player.

I’d ultimately expect Milwaukee to be in the tax or close to it, limiting the team to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM). But if the club maintains some maneuverability below the tax line, it could have the full MLE ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) to work with.

Our full salary cap preview for the Bucks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Ersan Ilyasova ($7,000,000)

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 24 overall pick

Second Round:

  • None

The Bucks’ own draft picks (Nos. 30 and 60) belong to Boston and New Orleans, respectively. The first-rounder was part of the package sent to Phoenix in 2017 for Eric Bledsoe before it was eventually rerouted to the Celtics. The second-rounder was one of several picks Milwaukee traded to the Pelicans for Nikola Mirotic at the 2019 deadline.

Milwaukee regained a first-round pick (No. 24 overall) in last summer’s sign-and-trade deal that sent Malcolm Brogdon to the Pacers.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Giannis Antetokounmpo sign a contract extension?

Antetokounmpo’s contract doesn’t expire until 2021, but the decision he makes in 2020 may have a greater impact and longer-term ramifications than any of this fall’s free agent signings. The two-time reigning MVP is up for a “super-max” contract extension that would start at 35% of the 2021/22 salary cap and would tack five years onto his current deal, locking him up through 2026.

[RELATED: Examining What Super-Max For Giannis Would Be Worth]

There’s no doubt that the Bucks will put that offer on the table, but after two consecutive seasons of the team finishing the regular season with the NBA’s best record and then falling short of the Finals in the postseason, it remains to be seen whether Giannis will accept it.

Antetokounmpo has said all the right things about his desire to remain in Milwaukee long-term and to win a championship with the Bucks. And while NBA fans have been conditioned to treat those sort of remarks with skepticism, there’s reason to believe Giannis’ comments are more genuine than most.

The Bucks’ star has spoken in the past about preferring to beat his fellow superstars rather than befriending and teaming up with them. He didn’t grow up playing on the AAU circuit and isn’t part of the Team USA program, so he hasn’t used those avenues to build relationships and plot unions like some stars have in the past. Additionally, Milwaukee is the only home Antetokounmpo has known since he arrived in the U.S., which means he’s unlikely to pull a Kawhi Leonard — Leonard, of course, chose to return home to Los Angeles last summer despite having just won a championship in Toronto.

Still, while there are plenty of factors working in the Bucks’ favor, there are also some reasons why Giannis may not be eager to immediately sign up for five more years in Milwaukee.

The Bucks’ last two playoff exits have been especially disappointing — the team blew a 2-0 in the Eastern Finals in 2019, then couldn’t muster more than a single win against an underdog Heat team in the second round of the 2020 postseason. On top of that, the coronavirus pandemic has complicated the NBA’s salary cap outlook for the next two or three seasons, meaning Antetokounmpo may be incentivized to sign shorter-term deals until the cap starts to rise again.

While it’s certainly not out of the question that Antetokounmpo signs a super-max extension with the Bucks this offseason, my feeling for now is that he’s more likely to put off that decision. He could sign the same five-year, super-max offer with Milwaukee as a free agent in 2021, and by that point, he should have a clearer picture of the NBA’s financial outlook. He’ll also have another playoff run with the Bucks under his belt, giving him a better idea of whether the club is a legit title contender. It’s even possible the club will win a title in 2021, which would presumably make his decision that much easier.

If Giannis isn’t ready to commit to a five-year extension, but doesn’t want the contract situation hanging over his head all season, a shorter-term extension – like the one Bradley Beal signed last year with the Wizards – is another option. However, that would close the door on the super-max possibility until he gains 10 years of NBA experience in 2023 and might mean accepting less than even the 30% max in 2021/22. In other words, if he’s looking to maximize his future earnings, signing a bridge extension a year before free agency probably isn’t the right play.

2. Is Bucks ownership ready to pay the tax?

As Antetokounmpo mulls a potential long-term commitment to the Bucks, it may be time for the team’s ownership group to prove it’s serious about investing big money not just in its superstar, but in the roster around him.

Following the Bucks’ elimination from the playoffs in September, co-owner Marc Lasry met with Antetokounmpo and reportedly assured him that the team is ready and willing to spend into the luxury tax to make upgrades.

The fact that Milwaukee signed-and-traded free agent guard Malcolm Brogdon to a division rival in 2019 rather than signing him to a new contract would seem to contradict the assertion that the team has no qualms about becoming a taxpayer. But it’s worth noting that the Bucks were said to have some long-term health concerns about Brogdon — it’s possible they simply didn’t feel he was the right player for that sort of investment.

Now that we’re a year closer to Antetokounmpo’s potential free agency, there’s more urgency for the Bucks to do all they can to ensure their star wants to stick around. And Lasry and his co-owners are positioned to have an immediate opportunity to back up their words with actions.

The Bucks only have about $114MM committed to eight guaranteed salaries for now, but that figure would surpass $128MM if Ersan Ilyasova is retained, Robin Lopez opts in, and the club keeps its first-round pick. And it would go even higher if the team wants to retain Pat Connaughton or Wesley Matthews, or bring in adequate replacements. Using the mid-level exception and/or making a trade that adds team salary could make the Bucks a taxpayer, especially if the threshold ($132.6MM) remains unchanged for next season.

The Bucks will likely become more comfortable with paying an annual tax bill – including potential repeater penalties down the road – if Giannis signs an extension and they know he’ll be around for the next half-decade. But they can’t wait until after Giannis re-ups to exhibit their willingness to spend big. Making upgrades and going into the tax for 2020/21 will show the two-time MVP they’re serious without necessarily putting them on the hook for future tax payments if Antetokounmpo ultimately decides to leave.

3. Can the Bucks acquire an impact player by building a trade package around Eric Bledsoe?

Free agency will be one potential avenue for the Bucks as they consider roster upgrades this offseason, but they won’t have any cap room available. And if they’d prefer to avoid becoming hard-capped, then using the full mid-level exception or acquiring a player via sign-and-trade won’t be options either. That means Milwaukee’s most intriguing path to acquiring a potential impact player is via the trade market.

The Bucks have a few pieces they could package in trade offers this fall. Bledsoe ($16.9MM) is the club’s most obvious trade chip, both because his salary is useful for matching purposes and because he has been an offensive liability in the postseason over the last two years, despite impressive regular season performances. George Hill (9.6MM) and Ilysaova ($7MM) are among the team’s other potential veteran assets, though Ilyasova’s expiring contract would have to be fully guaranteed if it’s to be used for salary matching.

Those three players are useful rotation pieces, but they’re not moving the needle in a major way for any team shopping an impact player. The Bucks will have to sweeten the pot a little, perhaps offering the Pacers’ 2020 first-round pick (No. 24), along with at least one of their own future first-rounders. Having already conditionally dealt their 2022 pick, a ’24 first-rounder is probably the best Milwaukee can do.

It’s a somewhat underwhelming package — if the Bucks go after someone like Jrue Holiday, they’ll almost certainly be outbid by other suitors. But an offer headed by Bledsoe and a couple first-rounders might be enough to land a player like Chris Paul (whose massive contract hurts his value), Buddy Hield (who may have worn out his welcome in Sacramento), or even Victor Oladipo (who didn’t look fully healthy this season).

I think Paul, in particular, would be a nice fit for the Bucks. The veteran point guard could share ball-handling duties with Giannis and would provide the sort of reliable shooting that Bledsoe hasn’t — he wouldn’t be a major downgrade on defense either. However, a September report suggested it’s “highly unlikely” that Milwaukee goes after CP3. His contract is apparently a concern, as is bringing a strong veteran personality onto a roster that already has a superstar leader in Antetokounmpo.

If Paul isn’t high on the Bucks’ list of potential targets, I’ll be curious to learn who is. It’s possible the front office believes only minor roster adjustments are necessary, given the team’s regular season track record since 2018. But adding a reliable play-maker and shot-maker to the backcourt would make Milwaukee an even more formidable postseason threat, and I’m skeptical that sort of difference-maker will be affordable and attainable in free agency.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Best, Worst Head Coaching Hires

October 24th, 2020 at 8:03pm CST by Arthur Hill

More coaching vacancies were filled this week, with Nate Bjorkgren and Stan Van Gundy becoming the sixth and seventh head coaches hired since July. The Pacers believe Bjorkgren can deliver the modern offense they were looking for when they decided to replace Nate McMillan, while the Pelicans were impressed by Van Gundy’s leadership skills and his track record at his previous stops in Miami, Orlando and Detroit.

Earlier in the week, the Clippers officially promoted Tyronn Lue to head coach to take over for Doc Rivers. Lue inherits one of the most talented rosters in the league and already has a familiarity with his players after serving as lead assistant under Rivers for the past year.

This year’s coaching moves started in late July when the Knicks reached an agreement to bring Tom Thibodeau to New York. Thibodeau was rumored to be in contention for jobs with several teams that were part of the NBA’s restart, so the Knicks took advantage of their opportunity as one of the league’s eight inactive clubs.

Steve Nash was the most surprising move of the offseason as the Nets hired the two-time MVP as their head coach without any previous experience. Nash beat out interim coach Jacque Vaughn, along with an impressive field of rumored candidates that included Lue, Lakers assistant Jason Kidd, ABC/ESPN broadcasters Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson and Sixers assistant Ime Udoka.

Two other head coaches were hired shortly after being dismissed by other teams. The Sixers jumped at the chance to add Rivers, reaching an agreement three days after he was fired by the Clippers. Likewise, the Bulls pounced on Billy Donovan after the Thunder let him go.

Houston and Oklahoma City still have vacancies to fill, but we want to get your feedback on the coaching changes so far. Which teams made the best and worst decisions in choosing their head coaches? Please leave your answers in the comment section.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

October 24th, 2020 at 5:31pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Houston Rockets.

Salary Cap Outlook

Nearly identical $41MM salaries for James Harden and Russell Westbrook will prevent the Rockets from opening up any cap space this offseason, barring a major roster shakeup. With over $123MM in guaranteed money already committed to just six players, Houston is in position to surpass the luxury tax threshold in 2020/21 unless the club cuts costs.

For now, we’re assuming the Rockets will be operating with the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM) rather than the full MLE or the bi-annual.

Our full salary cap preview for the Rockets can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • None

Second Round:

  • None

While it remains possible that the Rockets will trade back into the draft, they’re currently the only team without a 2020 pick.

Houston dealt its first-rounder (No. 22) to Denver in the four-team deadline deal last season involving Robert Covington and Clint Capela. The Rockets’ second-rounder (No. 52) went to Sacramento in a three-team 2019 deadline trade that sent Brandon Knight to Cleveland and Iman Shumpert to Houston.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will the Rockets look like without Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni in charge?

All NBA franchises reflect the philosophies of the people in charge to some extent, but few teams have been more defined by the their leaders during the past several years than the Rockets.

Morey and D’Antoni have each played a major role in revolutionizing the way modern basketball is played, and the marriage of their overlapping philosophies in Houston has resulted in an extreme style of small-ball that features an unprecedented amount of outside shooting.

Before D’Antoni arrived in Houston in 2016, no NBA team had ever come close to averaging 40 three-point attempts per game in a single season. Over the last four years, the Rockets have done it four times in a row, ranking first in the league in three-point attempts in each one of those seasons and establishing new records on three separate occasions (after averaging 45.4 threes per game in 2018/19, Houston averaged “only” 45.3 in ’19/20, preventing a fourth straight record season).

With Morey and D’Antoni both now out of the picture in Houston, it’s fair to wonder if we’ll see the Rockets modify their style of play going forward. If so, it would have a major impact on the roster moves they make this offseason and beyond.

I wouldn’t expect any major immediate changes, however, for a few reasons. For one, Morey’s replacement at the head of the basketball operations department is Rafael Stone, a veteran Rockets executive who presumably shares many of the same philosophies as his longtime boss. He’s helping to lead the search for a new head coach, so he’ll – in turn – likely be targeting candidates whose philosophies match up with his own.

Additionally, the Rockets have poured a ton of money, draft picks, and other resources into building a roster capable of thriving by playing small ball and launching three-pointers. Adopting a brand-new style of play would mean revamping the roster in a major way, and team owner Tilman Fertitta has said there are no plans to take that path this fall.

Having said that, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Rockets make some minor adjustments to their roster going forward. Perhaps they’ll be willing to spend a few extra million bucks this offseason to bring in one or two more traditional big men who can be relied upon to play rotation roles. But I certainly wouldn’t expect Houston to fall back to the middle of the pack in three-point attempts next season just because Morey and D’Antoni aren’t pulling the strings anymore.

2. How much is Tilman Fertitta willing to invest into the 2020/21 roster?

After coming within one game of the NBA Finals in 2018, the Rockets have seemingly been losing ground in their playoff appearances since then. They fell to Golden State a round earlier – and without putting up as strong a fight – in 2019, then were dispatched from the 2020 postseason by the Lakers relatively unceremoniously, dropping four consecutive games in the second round.

Still, it’s not as if Houston is in a downward spiral. After all, the club lost to the eventual champions this year and can bring back essentially the same core next season. The Rockets’ most important players – James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker, and Danuel House – are all under contract for 2020/21.

Unfortunately, that core won’t come cheap. The Rockets are already on the hook for more than $123MM in guaranteed money for those six players, including nearly $83MM for just Harden and Westbrook. Assuming the tax line remains relatively unchanged from the 2019/20 threshold (approximately $132.63MM), Houston projects to surpass it simply by filling out its roster with minimum-salary players.

The Rockets’ projections for 2020/21 will put team ownership to the test in a major way. Since buying the franchise in 2017, Fertitta has publicly conveyed a willingness to be a taxpayer if it means contending for a title, but the team’s actions have told another story.

Houston made a series of minor cost-cutting trades leading up to the 2019 deadline, surrendering cash and draft picks in order to sneak below the tax line. At the 2020 deadline, the Rockets didn’t have to work quite as hard to reduce salary, but the four-team trade that sent Clint Capela to Atlanta and brought Covington to Houston allowed the team to shed some money and get out of tax territory.

If the Rockets want to make any real upgrades to their roster and truly compete for a championship in 2021, they’ll probably have to be willing to use their mid-level exception. That will mean surpassing the tax line by a comfortable margin — or perhaps an uncomfortable one, if you’re Fertitta. If he was hesitant before about becoming a taxpayer, the Rockets’ owner certainly won’t be any more enthusiastic going forward, having had his businesses hit particularly hard by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

But it would be counter-intuitive for the Rockets to dump their team-friendly contracts – like Covington’s, Tucker’s, or House’s – and the team probably can’t afford to give up more draft picks to entice a team to take Gordon’s long-term deal. Assuming Harden and Westbrook aren’t going anywhere, there just aren’t many avenues left to cut costs. So it’s time to see just how willing Fertitta is to spend on the roster.

3. How can the Rockets upgrade their roster around their core players?

Even if we assume the Rockets are ready to spend to add complementary pieces this offseason, the team doesn’t have a ton of tools at its disposal.

One of those tools is the mid-level exception, worth will be worth approximately $5.72MM, assuming Houston uses the taxpayer MLE rather than the full version. With teams around the NBA not expected to spend big in free agency this offseason, the Rockets might actually be able to get a pretty solid rotation player with that exception.

If they target a wing, players like Garrett Temple, Wesley Matthews, Justin Holiday, Maurice Harkless, and Glenn Robinson III could be options.

They might be able to find an even bigger bargain if they focus on big men. I wouldn’t normally expect guys like Serge Ibaka or Derrick Favors to be in Houston’s price range, but Texas is a favorable landing spot and it’s possible there will be an established veteran willing to sign a team-friendly one-year deal before returning to a more player-friendly 2021 market.

As for non-mid-level options, players who have signed minimum-salary deals with Houston in past seasons – including Austin Rivers, Jeff Green, and Gerald Green – might be attainable at the same price this fall. Rivers may even exercise his minimum-salary player option to return.

The Rockets also have a handful of trade exceptions on hand, though none are worth more than about $3.5MM. Those exceptions are essentially only good for players on rookie contracts or veterans earning close to the minimum, but perhaps an inexpensive player in need of a change of scenery – such as Omari Spellman – would appeal to Houston.

Of course, the draft represents the best opportunity to add young talent on the cheap, but the Rockets are the only team without any picks in 2020. Still, if there are teams looking to sell second-round picks and Houston is willing to spend a few million dollars, there could be opportunities to trade back into the draft and take advantage of what looks to be a deep class.

The Rockets may not have the flexibility to add big-time talent this offseason, but the club doesn’t necessarily need another star. Acquiring a couple rotation players who can be counted on to produce in the playoffs would go a long way toward keeping Houston in contention.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

October 21st, 2020 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Toronto Raptors.

Salary Cap Outlook

Toronto has about $85MM committed to eight players and a first-round pick so far for the 2020/21 season, assuming Stanley Johnson opts in and the team retains Matt Thomas and Terence Davis. That theoretically puts the Raptors in position to create cap room, but re-signing one or more of their own veteran free agents – including Fred VanVleet and/or Serge Ibaka – will likely eliminate that room.

We’re assuming Toronto will operate as an over-the-cap club. Depending on what happens with VanVleet, Ibaka, and Marc Gasol, the team will likely have the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) available. If re-signing those veterans gets pricey, the Raptors may instead have to work with the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM). Either way, the team won’t have its bi-annual exception, having used it last season.

Our full salary cap preview for the Raptors can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Stanley Johnson, player option: $3,804,150

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Matt Thomas ($1,517,981)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $725K.
  • Terence Davis ($1,517,981)
  • Dewan Hernandez ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 29 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 59 overall pick

The Raptors, who finished the 2019/20 season with the NBA’s second-best record, didn’t trade away either of their draft picks and didn’t acquire any extra selections for this year.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will the Raptors re-sign Fred VanVleet?

The Raptors haven’t been shy about signing their own players to lucrative new contracts and extension in recent years. Kyle Lowry has signed a pair of new deals since 2017, both of which paid him more than $30MM annually; Serge Ibaka got a long-term deal worth nearly $22MM per year in 2017; and Pascal Siakam received a maximum-salary extension last fall.

That pattern suggests that the team should have no qualms about locking up VanVleet to a new contract this offseason that fairly reflects his market value. But even if the Raptors feel that way – and I think they do – their long-term salary cap outlook complicates matters.

Toronto has long had its eye on Giannis Antetokounmpo, who can become an unrestricted free agent in 2021 and is close with Raptors president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri. For the time being, Siakam’s $31MM cap hit is the only guaranteed money on the Raps’ books for 2021/22, and even though the team will also have to account for Norman Powell‘s player option, cap holds for OG Anunoby and Terence Davis, and some other small charges, that leaves plenty of room for a maximum-salary player.

However, if VanVleet signs a pricey new multiyear deal, his ’21/22 cap charge would cut into that remaining cap space in a major way.

We have no clear sense yet of where the NBA’s salary cap will land for ’21/22, and Powell’s extension and Anunoby’s next contract are wild cards that could affect how much flexibility the Raptors actually have a year from now. But as long as Ujiri and the Raps still have an outside shot at Antetokounmpo, the sense is that the franchise will want to maximize its cap room for 2021 as much as possible — and that will affect how much the club is willing to offer VanVleet this fall.

Now, that doesn’t mean that the Raptors will only be willing to offer a one-year contract to VanVleet. The expectation is that Toronto will still be able to make a competitive offer in the four-year, $80MM range for the starting guard. Structuring the deal so that it declines in value in year two before increasing again for the remaining years would create a small amount of added flexibility for the Raptors in 2021 as well.

Still, with Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram considered virtual locks to return to their respective clubs, VanVleet may end up being the top free agent on the market this offseason. Rebuilding teams with plenty of cap room – such as the Pistons, Hawks, and Knicks – will be in position to top a four-year, $80MM offer if they so choose.

If one of those teams is willing to offer $10-15MM more than Toronto does, would that difference be enough to convince VanVleet to jump ship for a lottery club? What if one of those clubs goes even higher?

Would the Raptors be willing to increase their own offer and sacrifice potential a max-salary slot for 2021, figuring that if Antetokounmpo or another top free agent really wants to come to Toronto, they’ll be able to figure out a way to make it happen? And would the Raptors change their approach on VanVleet at all if Giannis re-ups with Milwaukee this offseason?

At this point, I think it’s probably more likely than not that the Raptors will be able to retain VanVleet rather than losing him for nothing, but the situation definitely isn’t cut-and-dried, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

2. Will the Raptors re-sign Marc Gasol and/or Serge Ibaka?

While VanVleet is the Raptors’ top priority in free agency, two of the team’s other top seven players are eligible for new deals this fall as well — Gasol and Ibaka.

It’s possible that Gasol – who will turn 36 this winter – will decide to return home to Spain, joining his old team in Barcelona. So far though, there has been no confirmation that that’s his plan, as rumors suggesting a potential reunion between the veteran center and the Spanish club were quickly shot down. So an NBA deal remains in play for Gasol.

As for Ibaka, there’s no doubt he’ll be continuing his career in the NBA. The 31-year-old is coming off one of his best seasons as a pro, having averaged 15.4 PPG and 8.2 RPG on .512/.385/.718 shooting in 55 games (27.0 MPG). His ability to stretch the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense should make him one of the more intriguing big men on the market this offseason.

If the Raptors bring back VanVleet, re-signing both Gasol and Ibaka may be a long shot. Unless at least one of the two accepts a team-friendly deal, Toronto would be at risk of going into tax territory by re-signing all of its key free agents. And given the way the NBA is trending, it doesn’t make sense for the team to invest big money in a pair of aging centers.

Re-signing one of the two seems realistic though, and I’d expect the Raptors to prioritize Ibaka. While Gasol’s box-score numbers undersell his value as a defender, passer, or screen-setter, he had clearly lost a step or two by the end of the 2019/20 season, and expecting a bounce-back year in his 13th NBA season is probably ill-advised.

The Raptors’ plan for Ibaka will likely be similar to what they did for Lowry — offer him a lucrative one-year contract that expires in 2021, allowing the club to retain flexibility for that offseason. Toronto should be able to afford to pay Ibaka a salary close to what he made last year ($23MM) without getting too close to the tax threshold. I wouldn’t expect any other teams to go anywhere near that figure, given the lack of leaguewide cap room.

If Ibaka does get a competitive multiyear offer from another team, the Raptors could shift their focus to a one-year deal for Gasol and perhaps use their mid-level exception to add more frontcourt depth.

3. Will the Raptors extend Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster soon?

The Raptors have one notable extension-eligible player this offseason, but a deal for that player (Anunoby) may not be a top priority. Although Toronto would certainly like to keep Anunoby in the picture for years to come, an early extension would eat into their 2021 cap space, and the team will have an opportunity to lock up the young forward as a restricted free agent next year.

For the time being then, the Raptors’ most important extension candidates are in their front office. Toronto’s president of basketball operations (Ujiri) and general manager (Webster) are entering the final year of their respective contracts, and signing them to new ones has to be a top priority for the organization.

The Raptors already completed a new deal with head coach Nick Nurse this fall, and a report around that time suggested there were rumblings this summer that extensions for Ujiri and Webster were likely to follow. Over a month later though, there’s still no update on either front.

There’s no reason for Raptors fans to panic yet. Interest in Ujiri and Webster from rival franchises has frequently been rebuffed, and Larry Tanenbaum – the chairman of the team’s ownership group – has vowed to get something done.

Still, fans in Toronto will be able to breathe a little easier if and when word of new deals for the team’s top decision-makers breaks. Ujiri and Webster have led a front office that has become one of the NBA’s best at identifying under-the-radar talent, and they’ve helped turn the Raptors into one of the league’s more respected franchises.

Five or 10 years ago, the idea of a player of Antetokounmpo’s caliber giving any consideration to making the move to Toronto would have been laughable. It’s still probably a long shot, but it can no longer be dismissed out of hand — Ujiri and his group have made the Raptors a team that players around the league have to take seriously.

That progress wouldn’t necessarily be undone if Ujiri and/or Webster leaves next year, but keeping the duo around would be the best way for the Raptors to continue building on that progress.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Future

October 20th, 2020 at 9:54am CST by Luke Adams

Although he won’t be among this year’s pool of NBA free agents, Giannis Antetokounmpo may be the player whose next move is monitored closest this offseason.

Entering the final year of his contract with the Bucks, Antetokounmpo will be eligible for a five-year, super-max extension that would make him one of the NBA’s highest-paid players for years to come. However, after Milwaukee’s disappointing playoff showings during the last two seasons, there’s no guarantee that Giannis will sign that extension as soon as he’s eligible to do so.

Despite those postseason exits, Antetokunmpo has said all the right things about his desire to remain in Milwaukee long-term. And while we’ve heard those kind of comments before from star players who eventually leave their teams, Giannis’ stance seems genuine.

Milwaukee is the only home he has known since arriving in America, the Bucks are a talented team that has led the NBA in wins over the last two years, and Antetokounmpo doesn’t sound like he’s simply reading from a generic script when he talks about wanting to break through and win a title with the Bucks.

Still, until Antetokounmpo officially puts pen to paper on a new contract, anything can happen. Specifically, there are four scenarios that could play out for Giannis and the Bucks over the next year.

  1. Antetokounmpo signs a five-year, super-max extension with the Bucks this offseason. It would go into effect in 2021/22 and would start at 35% of the cap for that year.
  2. Antetokounmpo forgoes an extension this offseason, but remains with the Bucks for another year, then signs a new deal with the team during the 2021 offseason. He could still sign the five-year super-max in ’21. Or he could opt for a shorter-term deal, especially if the league’s updated salary cap projections suggest that approach might be more financially advantageous in the long run.
  3. Antetokounmpo doesn’t sign an extension this offseason, then joins a new team when he reaches free agency in 2021 — either by signing outright or via sign-and-trade. His max contract would be for four years, starting at 30% of the cap.
  4. Antetokounmpo doesn’t sign an extension this offseason and is traded before the 2021 deadline.

The fourth option has always seemed like the least probable outcome to me. As Tim Bontemps of ESPN reiterated this week, the Bucks are opposed to the idea of trading Antetokounmpo before his contract expires, preferring to make another run at a title with him in 2021. I imagine the team would only seriously consider a trade if Antetokounmpo asks for one, and he has stated he has no plans to do so.

The other three options are all more realistic possibilities, though I don’t have a feel yet for which outcome is likeliest. The Bucks will be able to put their super-max offer on the table for Antetokounmpo once the 2020/21 league year begins, which figures to happen in late November or early December. We should get a better idea by that point whether he’ll accept that offer this offseason.

If he doesn’t, the Bucks don’t need to panic. They’ll be able to put that same super-max offer back in play during the 2021 offseason and it’s worth more years and more money than Antetokoumpo can get anywhere else. Plus, if the Bucks can make the roster upgrades necessary to make a run to the NBA Finals in ’21, that would go a long way toward selling Giannis on a long-term future in Milwaukee.

We want to know what you think. Which outcome is the most likely for Antetokounmpo and the Bucks? Do you envision him remaining in Milwaukee for years to come, or are his days as a Buck numbered?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Hard Cap

October 19th, 2020 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s salary cap is a “soft” cap, which is why every single club’s team salary comfortably surpassed $109,141,000 at some point during the 2019/20 season. Once a team uses up all of its cap room, it can use a series of exceptions, including the mid-level, bi-annual, and various forms of Bird rights, to exceed the cap.

Since the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t feature a “hard” cap by default, teams can construct rosters that not only exceed the cap but also blow past the luxury tax line ($132,627,000 in ’19/20). While it would be nearly impossible in practical terms, there’s technically no rule restricting a club from having a team salary worth double or triple the salary cap.

However, there are certain scenarios in which a team can be hard-capped. Those scenarios are as follows:

  1. The team uses its bi-annual exception to sign a player.
  2. The team uses more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception to sign a player (or multiple players).
    • Note: In 2019/20, the taxpayer MLE was worth $5,718,000, compared to $9,258,000 for the full non-taxpayer MLE.
  3. The team acquires a player via sign-and-trade.

A team making any of those three roster moves must ensure that its team salary is below the “tax apron” when it finalizes the transaction and stays below the apron for the rest of the league year. The tax apron was set $6MM above the luxury tax line in 2017/18 (the first year of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement) and creeps up a little higher each season as long as the cap keeps increasing.

For the 2019/20 league year, the tax apron – and the hard cap for certain clubs – was set at $138,928,000. Assuming the cap doesn’t change by much for the 2020/21, the apron figures to remain relatively unchanged for next season.

Last offseason, before the Warriors acquired D’Angelo Russell in a sign-and-trade deal, they had to dump Andre Iguodala‘s $17MM+ salary in a trade and waive Shaun Livingston‘s partially guaranteed contract to ensure their team salary was below the apron upon acquiring Russell.

Golden State then had to remain below the apron for the rest of the season, which was why the team spent much of the year carrying fewer than 15 players on standard contracts — even an extra minimum-salary player would’ve compromised the Warriors’ ability to stay below the hard cap. Golden State made some trades at the deadline that created some breathing room below the apron and allowed the club to fill its 15-man roster.

Many other teams technically faced hard caps during the 2020/21 season, but the Warriors were the team most affected by the restrictions imposed upon them. Most of the other teams with hard caps never got close to the $138,928,000 apron.

Once the 2020/21 league year officially gets underway, the Warriors will no longer be subject to the hard cap. And as long as they don’t use their bi-annual exception, acquire a player via sign-and-trade, or use more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level, they won’t face a hard cap next season. So even though the Dubs already have a projected $142MM+ in guaranteed money on the books for ’20/21, they’ll still be able to make full use of their $17MM+ trade exception and $5.72MM taxpayer MLE if they so choose.

Finally, it’s worth noting that even though the Warriors will likely start the 2020/21 league year above the apron, that doesn’t mean they can’t become hard-capped at some point later in ’20/21. For example, if Golden State kicked off the offseason by trading Andrew Wiggins‘ $29.5MM contract without taking back any salary in return, then subsequently used its full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception, the team would once again be prohibited from surpassing the apron for the rest of the league year.

In other words, the hard cap applies from the moment a team completes one of the three transactions listed above, but isn’t applied retroactively.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: How Many More Rings For LeBron?

October 17th, 2020 at 8:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

Last summer, it appeared LeBron James might have to be content with three championship rings. He was 34, well past the prime for most NBA players, and was coming off the most serious injury of his career. He was also sitting out the playoffs for the first time since the 2004/05 season.

Everything looks different now, of course. LeBron and the Lakers tore through the competition in Orlando, being pushed past five games only by the Heat. James averaged 29.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists during the Finals and became the second-oldest player ever to win Finals MVP honors.

A fourth championship ring enhances his place in history and gives him a chance to join even more elite company. Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson and Tim Duncan are among the players with five. Michael Jordan, whom James is frequently compared to, has six, as do Scottie Pippen, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bob Cousy.

The Lakers look capable of winning multiple titles. Anthony Davis turned out to be a perfect complement for James and may be at the peak of his career at age 27. The rest of the roster is a mix of youth and veterans who all fit well into their prescribed roles. Avery Bradley, who opted out of the restart, seems likely to return next season, adding another strong defensive presence to the backcourt.

The biggest wild card is how long James can remain at an elite level. He averaged 34.6 minutes per game this season, which is the lowest of his career, but not by much. James led the league in assists for the first time at 10.2 per game, while adding 25.3 points and 7.8 rebounds. Remarkably, his production per 36 minutes has barely changed from a decade ago.

James is under contract for one more season and holds a $41MM player option for 2021/22. There’s no certainty beyond that, but he hasn’t even hinted at retirement. The Lakers will try to maximize his title opportunities for as long as he’s on the roster and have shown a willingness to spend whatever is necessary.

We want to get your opinion. How many more titles do you believe James will win before retirement? Please leave your answers in the comment section.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

October 16th, 2020 at 3:33pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Salary Cap Outlook

After paying tax penalties for five of the last six seasons, the Thunder don’t project to be above the luxury-tax line in 2020/21. Still, with $101.75MM already committed to nine roster spots (eight guaranteed contracts and a first-round pick), it won’t be easy to create any cap room. Barring a trade that significantly reduces salary, Oklahoma City will likely operate as an over-the-cap team.

In that scenario, the Thunder would have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM). If the team cuts costs and ends up using cap space, it would lose those exceptions along with a couple sizeable trade exceptions, but would gain access to the room exception ($4.77MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Thunder can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Mike Muscala, player option: $2,283,034
  • Abdel Nader, team option: $1,752,950
    • Note: Salary doesn’t immediately become guaranteed if option is exercised.
  • Deonte Burton, team option: $1,663,861
    • Note: Salary will become partially guaranteed for $1.1MM if option is exercised.
  • Hamidou Diallo, team option: $1,663,861

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • None

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 25 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 53 overall pick

The Thunder’s first-round pick this year is Denver’s pick, which they acquired last July. Oklahoma City’s own pick (No. 21) was sent to Philadelphia back in 2016. In an odd coincidence, both selections were traded for Jerami Grant.

The second-round pick is the Thunder’s own. Because they technically won a three-way tiebreaker in the first round (which the Sixers benefited from), the Thunder’s second-rounder landed at No. 53 instead of 51 or 52.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Is Sam Presti ready to launch a rebuild?

The Thunder finished the 2019/20 season tied for the fourth-best record in the Western Conference (44-28) and pushed the Rockets to seven games in the first round before being eliminated.

The team outperformed expectations this season, but there’s reason to believe that success could be replicated in 2020/21. Chris Paul, Dennis Schröder, and Steven Adams are still under contract. So are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, and Darius Bazley, and they should only improve going forward. Danilo Gallinari could be re-signed without going into tax territory. And with all the future first-round picks Oklahoma City has in hand, adding an impact player in a trade isn’t out of the question either.

However, there are signs the Thunder aren’t planning to go in that direction. The most glaring of those is the team’s inability to come to an agreement with head coach Billy Donovan, who elected to part ways with OKC despite receiving a multiyear contract offer from the club.

Reports at the time of the split – as well as comments from Presti himself – indicated that the Thunder and Donovan might not have been on the same page regarding the direction in the franchise. In other words, Donovan didn’t want to stick around only for the roster to undergo a retooling process, while Presti seems far more prepared to go in that direction.

With Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, and Bazley all locked up for multiple years, the Thunder have a promising young core and won’t require a full teardown. But it wouldn’t be a surprise if Paul, Gallinari, Schröder, and Adams are all gone a year from now.

Gallinari is an unrestricted free agent this fall, so if the Thunder don’t re-sign him, their only hope of getting value in return would be through a sign-and-trade. Schröder and Adams will each be on expiring contracts in 2020/21, but the former will have much more trade value than the latter, whose $27.5MM cap hit will make it tricky find a taker. Paul, who is owed $85MM+ over the next two years, is the most fascinating trade candidate of the bunch — we’ll dig deeper into his situation below.

While I expect the Thunder to explore the trade market for all of those veterans this offseason, I don’t think there’s any urgency for the team to make deals right away. That’s especially true for guys like Paul and Adams. If trade partners aren’t willing to take on their oversized contracts without draft compensation, Oklahoma City can afford to be patient.

Adams will be off the books in 2021 and Paul will be entering the final year of his deal at that point. It’s not as if the Thunder need to clear cap room immediately in order to pursue free agents. Dipping into their cache of future first-round picks just to get off Adams’ or Paul’s contracts a year early would be a misuse of those resources.

In essence, while Presti and the Thunder may be prepared to retool their roster, there’s no need for a full teardown and there’s no rush to clear out the veterans as soon as possible. This rebuild can be a gradual one, and fully bottoming out shouldn’t be necessary.

2. Will Chris Paul be traded this offseason?

Paul is one of the NBA’s most interesting trade candidates this fall. He’s only a year removed from being attached to two first-round picks and two first-round pick swaps in a deal for Russell Westbrook, but his value has increased since then for a few reasons.

For one, Paul had a terrific year in 2019/20, staying healthy all season and averaging 17.6 PPG, 6.7 APG, and 5.0 RPG with a .489 FG% in 70 games (31.5 MPG), earning his first All-Star nod since 2016. Teams with interest in acquiring CP3 will recognize that he’s still an injury risk, but the fact that he continues to play at such a high level is encouraging — his production is unlikely to fall off a cliff in 2020/21 as long as he stays relatively healthy.

Paul’s oversized contract is also one year closer to ending now. If a team acquires him and doesn’t get the sort of production it hoped for, his cap hits ($41.4MM in ’20/21, $44.2MM in ’21/22) will be onerous in the short term, but won’t ruin the club’s flexibility for years to come.

This year’s week free agent class also helps boost Paul’s appeal. There are two 2020 All-Stars who are free agents this offseason, but both of them – Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram – are highly likely to return to their current teams. Teams looking to add an All-Star caliber impact player may view a trade for Paul as their best bet to do so.

Paul’s fate will ultimately come down to what sort of offers Oklahoma City gets. The Thunder’s ability to extract a first-round pick in a package for CP3 – or willingness to include one themselves – will hinge on what the rest of the return looks like.

For instance, I don’t think there’s any way the Thunder will attach a future first-rounder to Paul if the Sixers want them to take on Tobias Harris‘ or Al Horford‘s long-term contract, or if the Bucks want them to take Eric Bledsoe and other salary filler. In those scenarios, OKC would likely ask its trade partner to include a first-rounder.

On the other hand, if the Thunder’s return includes a promising young player who could become a building block in Oklahoma City, the team would presumably be more willing to surrender a future first-rounder in addition to Paul. It’s more difficult to construct a hypothetical deal along these lines. If the Knicks were willing to include Mitchell Robinson in their offer, they could probably land Paul and draft assets. But I don’t think New York would do that.

Although Paul’s value is difficult to nail down, I don’t see the Thunder viewing him as a salary dump. If they’re going to move him this fall, they’ll want some combination of cap relief, a draft pick, and/or players who can contribute. If the Thunder don’t get any offers that fit that bill, they can afford to hang onto their veteran point guard for the time being, as they did a year ago.

3. Who will the Thunder hire as their head coach?

There haven’t been many updates out of Oklahoma City on the team’s head coaching search since Donovan’s departure more than a month ago. I imagine the Thunder began the process of seeking a replacement at some point since then, so the radio silence is likely by design rather than an indication of inactivity.

Even without any leaks, we can make a few assumptions about the Thunder’s search.

For instance, based on the divide between Donovan and the organization, it’s a good bet that the club will be seeking a coach who’s comfortable with the idea of overseeing a rebuild.

Additionally, given the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic, I can’t see Oklahoma City paying big money to a head coach if the club doesn’t expect to be contending in the short term.

Those clues point to the Thunder targeting an up-and-coming candidate who may not have any previous head coaching experience. That lack of experience should keep his – or her – price tag in check. Still, the Thunder will want someone who has spent some time on NBA staffs so that they’re not hiring an entirely unknown commodity.

That profile fits with the few names we’ve heard linked to the job. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst initially identified Timberwolves associate head coach David Vanterpool, Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin and Spurs assistant Will Hardy as contenders, while Shams Charania of The Athletic later confirmed OKC’s interest in Hardy and added Thunder assistant Brian Keefe to the list of candidates.

Griffin and Keefe each have more than a decade of experience as NBA assistants under their belts and have worked for at least three teams apiece during that time. Vanterpool began his coaching career as a CSKA Moscow assistant and has worked on the Blazers’ and Wolves’ staffs since returning stateside in 2012. Hardy has only worked for the Spurs, but has made an impressive rise through the ranks since joining the team’s video department in 2011 and is now one of Gregg Popovich‘s top lieutenants.

It’s possible the Thunder’s list of coaching candidates will continue to grow in the coming days or weeks. Based on what we know so far though, it sounds like the club will be targeting a veteran assistant who has proven his bona fides at the NBA level and is ready for a promotion.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview Series

October 14th, 2020 at 5:02pm CST by Luke Adams

In advance of the NBA’s 2020 draft and free agent period, Hoops Rumors is previewing the coming offseason for all 30 teams, looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall.

Our Offseason Preview articles are linked below, sorted by conference and division. This list, which can be found under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu, will continue to be updated as we complete our previews for all 30 teams.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Western Conference

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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