Hoops Rumors Originals

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Boston Celtics

November 4th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Boston Celtics.

Salary Cap Outlook

At first glance, the Celtics’ cap situation looks fairly comfortable, with about $95MM in guarantees committed to eight players.

However, that figure doesn’t include Gordon Hayward‘s $34MM+ option or Daniel Theis‘ $5MM non-guaranteed salary. Enes Kanter is also a candidate to pick up his $5MM option, and Boston would add another $7-8MM to its books by using its three first-round picks. With all those costs taken into account, the Celtics’ projected team salary jumps to $146MM+.

Boston could make some cost-cutting moves, including trading one or more of its three first-round picks. But this will be an expensive roster, and it seems like the Celtics will be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception (worth $5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Celtics can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Gordon Hayward, player option: $34,187,085
Enes Kanter, player option: $5,005,350
Semi Ojeleye, team option: $1,752,950
- Note: Salary doesn’t immediately become guaranteed if option is exercised.

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Daniel Theis ($5,000,000)
Javonte Green ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Tacko Fall (expiring)
Tremont Waters (expiring)

Free Agents:

Brad Wanamaker (RFA; Early Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 14 overall pick
No. 26 overall pick
No. 30 overall pick

Second Round:

No. 47 overall pick

After having held extra first-round picks for most of the last few years, the Celtics don’t have any surplus first-rounders beyond 2020. But they do have a pair of first-rounders besides their own (No. 26) this year.

The Grizzlies’ pick at No. 14 finally conveyed after being protected in the past — it was originally part of the deal that sent Jeff Green to Memphis in 2015. The Bucks’ pick (No. 30), meanwhile, was initially sent to Phoenix in 2017’s Eric Bledsoe swap. The Suns flipped it to Boston during last year’s draft in order to land Aron Baynes and Ty Jerome.

In the second round, the Celtics traded away their own pick (No. 56) as part of last year’s Terry Rozier/Kemba Walker sign-and-trade deal, so the Hornets have it now. But in that same trade, Boston acquired Brooklyn’s second-rounder (No. 47) from Charlotte.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Gordon Hayward be back with the Celtics?

Hayward’s contract with Boston includes a player option worth $34MM for the 2020/21 season, which means there are a number ways the offseason could play out for him.

If he opts into the final year of his contract, Hayward could simply return to the Celtics for another year before reaching free agency, he could be traded, or he could sign a longer-term extension with the team. If he opts out, he could sign outright with a new team, join a new team via sign-and-trade, or negotiate a new, longer-term deal with the C’s.

For most of the year, it looked like a no-brainer that Hayward would exercise his player option. He has no chance of matching his $34MM salary for ’20/21 on a new deal, and the list of teams with cap room will be extremely short. Opting to test the open market wouldn’t seem to make much sense for the veteran forward.

However, there has been some recent chatter, instigated by ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Bobby Marks, that Hayward’s agent Mark Bartelstein is quietly surveying the landscape to see what might be out there for his client. During that ESPN podcast, Marks suggested there’s a chance that Hayward and Bartelstein could go the Al Horford route. A year ago, Horford unexpectedly turned down a $30MM option with Boston and signed a four-year contract with Philadelphia that guaranteed him $97MM.

The opportunity to secure one last lucrative long-term deal was the right move for Horford, who was 33 years old when he reached free agency in 2019. Hayward is still just 30 and will probably be well positioned for a nice payday a year from now if he has a healthy, productive 2020/21 season, so there’s less urgency for him to seek long-term security this year — especially with so few potential suitors with cap room out there.

It’s also worth noting that when the Celtics let Horford go, it helped them accommodate the acquisition of Kemba Walker. If they’d matched Philadelphia’s offer for Horford, landing Walker while staying under the tax apron would’ve been a challenge. This time around, there wouldn’t be much of an upside to letting Hayward walk. It would help the C’s avoid the tax, but wouldn’t open up any extra cap room to sign a comparable replacement.

Taking those factors into account, I think Hayward is most likely to either pick up his option or sign a longer-term deal with Boston that reduces his 2020/21 cap charge. In either scenario, the Celtics could simply run it back with Hayward or explore their trade options (though they’d have to wait a few months if they sign him to a new free agent contract).

There’s no shortage of teams looking for wings with size, but the Celtics already have a couple good young ones in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, making Hayward somewhat expendable. If they can figure out a trade that sends out Hayward for a player who addresses a more pressing need on the roster – perhaps in the frontcourt – it would make sense to explore that possibility.

If Boston’s hypothetical trade partner is a team Hayward wouldn’t mind committing to long-term, a sign-and-trade would be another option worth considering. However, that scenario would require plenty of pre-free-agency communication between the two teams and Hayward’s camp to figure out the logistics.

2. What will the Celtics do with their three first-round draft picks?

The Celtics own the 14th, 26th, and 30th picks in what is considered a deep draft. If they were a rebuilding club, that would put them in a great position to add a couple potential long-term building blocks to their roster. But since Boston has title aspirations and a nearly-full roster, adding another three rookies to next year’s squad isn’t in the organization’s best interests.

As a result, it’s pretty safe to assume the Celtics won’t keep all three of those picks, or at least won’t use all of them on players for next year’s roster. That gives them a few options.

Trading one or two of those picks for a future first-rounder is one path the Celtics could take. They did that a year ago, sending the Ty Jerome pick to Phoenix in a deal for the first-rounder that became this year’s No. 30 selection.

Continuously rolling a pick over to the following draft is a good way to retain value and flexibility — if the Celtics want to fortify their roster at next year’s trade deadline, having an extra first-rounder available for a veteran could come in handy. Plus, after holding extra first-round picks for most of the last several years, the Celtics only have their own first-rounders beyond 2020. Flipping one or two of this year’s picks for future selections would help avoid having those coffers run dry.

Trading a pick or two in a deal for a veteran would be another option, but salary matching would be an issue in that scenario. The Celtics have no trade exceptions to take on salary.

Using a pick on a draft-and-stash player is one way to try to maximize the value of the pick without requiring a spot on next year’s roster. That approach hasn’t worked out especially well for Danny Ainge in recent years, but perhaps Serbian forward Aleksej Pokusevski (18th on ESPN’s big board) would have more NBA success than Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic did.

One of the most intriguing options for the Celtics – and one the team is reportedly exploring – would be to use all three picks in an attempt to move up in the draft to land an impact rookie who could contribute immediately and develop into a key future contributor.

Picks at or near the top of the draft are exponentially more valuable than those later on, so the Celtics shouldn’t expect to move into the top five by dangling Nos. 14, 26, and 30. Still, there could be a deal to be had in the middle of the lottery.

The Pistons, for instance, could badly use an influx of young talent and may be open to moving down to No. 14 if they don’t have a specific target in mind at No. 7 — and if they believe they can get good value with those two extra Boston picks at the end of the first round. It’s not clear which player the Celtics would be targeting if they move into the top 10, but Onyeka Okongwu and Tyrese Haliburton are among the mid-lottery options who might be of interest.

3. What will Jayson Tatum’s extension look like?

Tatum will become extension-eligible for the first time this offseason and there’s no question he’ll get a maximum-salary deal from the Celtics. But not all max deals are created equal. There are some details that the team will have to negotiate with Tatum’s camp that could be important down the road.

For one, the length of the contract will be critical. Of the three maximum-salary rookie scale extensions signed a year ago, two were for five years, while Pascal Siakam‘s was for just four. It’s safe to say the Celtics will push for five years without a fifth-year player option for Tatum, who would still just be 28 years old by the time a five-year extension expires in 2026.

The Rose Rule language in Tatum’s deal will also be critical. As we outline in our glossary entry on the subject, the Rose Rule allows a player with fewer than seven years of NBA experience to qualify for a higher maximum salary (up to 30% of the cap, rather than 25%) if he meets certain criteria. Making an All-NBA team allows a player to qualify for that higher max, and teams and players are permitted to negotiate various starting salaries between 25-30% depending on which specific All-NBA team a player makes.

Siakam, Ben Simmons, and Jamal Murray all negotiated this language into their extensions a year ago. Siakam, for instance, will earn 28% of the cap in 2020/21 because he made the All-NBA Second Team — if he had only made the Third Team, his max salary would’ve been worth 25% of the cap. Simmons, who had more player-friendly Rose Rule language in his deal, will also get a 28% max salary after making the Third Team. Murray wasn’t an All-NBA player, but could theoretically have earned up to a 30% max if he’d made the First Team.

Tatum is coming off an All-NBA Third Team nod of his own, and had a strong case for a Second Team spot. Will the Celtics be willing to give him a 30% max if he makes any All-NBA team again in 2021, or would they require a First Team spot to go that high?

While the difference may appear marginal on the surface, that extra money adds up over the course of a five-year deal. Based on a $115MM cap, a player who starts at 30% of the cap would earn about $33MM more over five years than a player starting at 25%.

With big-money long-term deals for Walker and Brown already on the books, the Celtics could also end up as a repeat taxpayer down the road, so if they’re able to save a little money on Tatum’s contract while still technically giving him a “max” deal, they might welcome that opportunity.

There’s little doubt that the Celtics and Tatum will hammer out an extension this fall, but if it doesn’t get done immediately when the new league year begins, it’s likely because the two sides are haggling over these under-the-radar details.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Grant Riller Intriguing Teams Ahead Of Draft

November 2nd, 2020 at 2:15pm CST by JD Shaw

Point guard Grant Riller has intrigued multiple teams as a prospect with high upside ahead of the 2020 NBA draft, a source told Hoops Rumors.

Riller’s crafty ability to score — particularly around the rim — has helped him become a projected early-second round pick. Some league observers have even placed the 23-year-old at the end of the first round. He has already interviewed with teams such as the Heat (No. 20), Sixers (No. 21), Nuggets (No. 22), and Lakers (No. 28) and Raptors (No. 29).

Riller, who spent four seasons at the College of Charleston and recorded a 39.5″ max vertical last week, averaged 21.9 points per game in his final two years with the school. He shot 51.9% from the floor and 34.4% from downtown during those campaigns, connecting on 63% of his attempts around the basket on non-post ups during his collegiate career.

Riller remains one of the only seniors who could be selected in the first round of the draft. The event is scheduled to be held virtually from the ESPN Studios in Bristol, Connecticut on November 18.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Denver Nuggets

November 2nd, 2020 at 12:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

Taking into account eight players and their first-round draft pick, the Nuggets are currently on the hook for just over $100MM in commitments for 2020/21. That’s won’t put them in position to create any cap room, but it should allow them to re-sign some combination of Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Torrey Craig, and Mason Plumlee without going into tax territory.

The full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.26MM) should be in play for Denver, though there’s a chance the team will be limited to the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM) if re-signing its own free agents gets expensive.

Our full salary cap preview for the Nuggets can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Jerami Grant, player option: $9,346,153
- Note: Grant will reportedly decline his option.

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

PJ Dozier ($1,762,796)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1.2MM.
Monte Morris ($1,663,861)
Keita Bates-Diop ($1,663,861)

Two-Way Contracts:

Bol Bol (expires in 2021)

Free Agents:

Paul Millsap (Bird)
Mason Plumlee (Bird)
Noah Vonleh (Non-Bird)
Troy Daniels (Non-Bird)
Torrey Craig (RFA; Bird)
Tyler Cook (N/A)
- Note: Cook won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 22 overall pick

Second Round:

None

The Nuggets traded away both of their own picks in the 2020 draft. The first-rounder (No. 25) went to Oklahoma City in 2019’s Jerami Grant swap, while the second-rounder (No. 55) was part of a 2018 salary-dump deal that sent Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur to Brooklyn.

Denver did acquire an extra first-round pick to replace its own though, landing the Rockets’ pick (No. 22) in February’s four-team trade that sent Malik Beasley and Juan Hernangomez to Minnesota.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will the Nuggets re-sign Jerami Grant?

Grant’s time in Denver got off to a shaky start in 2019/20. In their 42 games through January 19, the Nuggets had a -5.6 net rating when Grant was on the court and a +14.0 rating when he sat, one of the most significant discrepancies in the league.

That gap wasn’t all Grant’s fault, of course — he was still scoring in the double digits and knocking down his threes at a 36.4% clip during that time. But he was inconsistent on the defensive end, as it took some time for Denver to figure out how to make the most of his versatility and pair him with the right teammates.

After January 19, the Nuggets’ net rating for the rest of the regular season was five points better when Grant was on the court. And he was a key contributor in the postseason, starting 16 of Denver’s 19 playoff games and averaging 34.4 minutes per contest against the Jazz, Clippers, and Lakers. The Nuggets couldn’t do much in the Western Finals against the Lakers, but Grant was one of the few bright spots — he averaged 21.0 PPG on 47.6% in the team’s final three games of the season.

While Grant’s first year in Denver wasn’t perfect, he had become one of the team’s most important role players by season’s end and showed why the club surrendered a first-round pick for him last July. The Nuggets didn’t give up that first-rounder expecting Grant to be a one-year rental, so there’s no reason to think the organization won’t make every effort to re-sign him this fall.

Grant will be an unrestricted free agent, which means he’s free to sign elsewhere if he doesn’t want to return to Denver. But unless the Nuggets are willing to work out a sign-and-trade deal, the 26-year-old’s best opportunity to play for a contender in 2020/21 will probably be with his current club. Using his Bird rights, the Nuggets can offer Grant a starting salary well above the mid-level exception, outbidding most rival suitors.

That doesn’t mean Grant won’t have other options, especially if he’s willing to join a lottery team. The Pistons and Hawks are expected to have interest and have the cap room necessary to put pressure on Denver. The Suns and Heat have also been linked to Grant, though both of those clubs would need to jettison some of their own free agents to create enough cap space for a run at the Nuggets forward, which could complicate matters. The Mavericks are also said to have interest in Grant, but they project to be over the cap, which could compromise their ability to put a competitive offer on the table.

It may ultimately come down to price. Bobby Marks of ESPN projects a $12-14MM starting salary for Grant, while Mike Singer of The Denver Post has estimated the forward could command upwards of $14-16MM per year. An offer in the four-year, $60MM range seems about right for Grant and the Nuggets. If another team is willing to significantly outbid that offer, Denver will face a difficult decision.

2. Will any of the Nuggets’ other notable free agents be back?

Besides Grant, a handful of other Nuggets will be free agents, including Paul Millsap (unrestricted), Mason Plumlee (unrestricted), and Torrey Craig (restricted).

None of those players are indispensable, but president of basketball operations Tim Connelly and general manager Calvin Booth have spoken about wanting to retain as many of their own free agents as possible. It’ll be interesting to see how committed they are to following through on that vow, especially when it comes to Millsap.

At age 35, Millsap is past his prime years and isn’t going to make any more All-Star teams, like he did in Atlanta for four consecutive years from 2014-17. But his value shouldn’t be understated. The big man has had a major impact on Denver’s defense since his arrival in 2017, fitting in perfectly on a team led by a pair of offense-first stars in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. His toughness and defensive savvy have take some pressure off Jokic, and he’d be missed if the Nuggets let him walk.

Connelly has said he’d “love to see” Millsap spend the rest of his career in Denver and I expect the team to attempt to re-sign him. But it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a rival suitor try to lure Millsap away with an oversized one-year offer in the hopes of shoring up its own frontcourt defense.

If the Nuggets are willing to match an offer in the $9-10MM range for Millsap while also re-signing Grant, it would push team salary close to the tax and would likely prevent Denver from using its full mid-level exception. Connelly, Booth, and company may have to decide whether bringing back both its top free agent forwards is more important than retaining the flexibility to use that MLE on an outside target.

Plumlee and Craig are less likely to incite a bidding war, but they each have some value. Plumlee has been a solid backup and won’t be as expensive this time around as he was when Denver signed him to a three-year, $41MM deal in 2017. Assuming the Nuggets can get him at half of his previous $14MM salary (or less), he could be back.

As for Craig, he was one of the team’s top perimeter defenders, but his offensive contributions were limited. With the Nuggets likely to explore the free agent and trade markets for a wing who has more two-way value, Craig could become expendable unless he’s willing to take a minimum deal or something very close to it.

3. Do the Nuggets have the pieces to swing a trade for a third impact player?

Jokic has emerged as a perennial candidate for the All-NBA First Team, and Murray – despite some frustrating ups and down during the regular season – showed during the postseason at Walt Disney World that he deserves to be considered Denver’s second star. He averaged 26.5 PPG and 6.6 APG on .505/.453/.897 shooting during the Nuggets’ 19 playoff games.

With a frontcourt and backcourt star locked up the foreseeable future, the Nuggets could badly use a wing capable of making an impact on both ends of the court. Will Barton and Gary Harris are good players, but they aren’t stars. And while Michael Porter Jr. has star potential on offense, he’s a liability on the other end of the floor at this point in his career and is unlikely to ever develop into a lockdown defender, even if he makes some strides in that area.

The Nuggets don’t have the cap room to make a splash in free agency this fall and there aren’t any logical targets on the open market anyway. So the trade market may be the team’s best bet to try to find a wing of that caliber.

One potential trade candidate, who has been linked to Denver in the past, is Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday. A defensive dynamo, Holiday is entering a potential contract year and the Nuggets are expected to be among his most aggressive suitors if New Orleans makes him available.

What would an offer for Holiday realistically look like? Obviously Denver won’t include Jokic or Murray, and Porter is said to be virtually untouchable too. Harris is the most logical salary-matching piece — from there it would just be a matter of how many sweeteners the Nuggets are willing to offer. Monte Morris and/or Bol Bol could interest the Pelicans. Denver also has all its first-round picks available beyond this season and could put more than one – including this year’s No. 22 selection – in an offer.

It’s not clear if such a proposal would appeal to the Pelicans more than something the Nets or another suitor could put together. If New Orleans demands Porter, would the Nuggets be willing to change their stance on the 22-year-old? I’m skeptical. As good as Holiday is, he’s made one All-Star team in his career (in 2013), is on the wrong side of 30, and could reach free agency in a year. If Denver is convinced to give up Porter, I think it’d probably have to be for a player a tier above Holiday.

It’s not clear if that sort of player will be available this fall though. Victor Oladipo is another target who might make sense for the Nuggets, but his health makes him a risk — I’m not sure Denver would want to offer much more than Harris and a first-round pick for the Pacers guard.

The Nuggets made it to the Western Finals in 2020 after forcing a seventh game in the Western Semifinals in 2019. They’re close to breaking through and acquiring an impact wing could be the move that helps put them over the top. We’ll have to wait see how aggressively Connelly and the front office pursue that sort of player this offseason.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Gilbert Arenas Provision

November 2nd, 2020 at 9:54am CST by Luke Adams

Gilbert Arenas hasn’t played in the NBA since 2012, but his legacy lives on in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. The NBA first introduced the Gilbert Arenas provision in the 2005 CBA as a way to help teams retain their restricted free agents who aren’t coming off standard rookie scale contracts.

While Arenas isn’t specifically named in the CBA, the rule colloquially known as the Arenas provision stems from his own restricted free agency in 2003. At the time, the Warriors only had Early Bird rights on Arenas, who signed an offer sheet with the Wizards starting at about $8.5MM. Because Golden State didn’t have $8.5MM in cap room and could only offer Arenas a first-year salary of about $4.9MM using the Early Bird exception, the Warriors were unable to match the offer sheet and lost Arenas to Washington.

The Arenas provision, created to help avoid similar situations, limits the first-year salary that rival suitors can offer restricted free agents who have only been in the league for one or two years. The starting salary for an offer sheet can’t exceed the amount of the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception, which allows the player’s original team to use either the mid-level exception or the Early Bird exception to match it. Otherwise, a team without the necessary cap space would be powerless to keep its player, like the Warriors were with Arenas.

An offer sheet from another team can still have an average annual salary that exceeds the non-taxpayer’s mid-level, however. The annual raises are limited to 5% between years one and two, and 4.5% between years three and four, but a team can include a significant raise between the second and third years of the offer.

As long as the first two years of a team’s offer sheet are for the highest salary possible, the offer is fully guaranteed, and there are no incentives included, the third-year salary of the offer sheet can be worth up to what the player’s third-year maximum salary would have been if not for the Arenas restrictions.

If we assume the salary cap for 2020/21 will remain unchanged ($109.141MM), the maximum offer sheet a first- or second-year RFA could receive this offseason would look like this:

Year	Salary	Comment
2020/21	$9,258,000	Value of non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception.
2021/22	$9,720,900	5% raise on first-year salary.
2022/23	$31,650,600	Maximum third-year salary for a player with 1-2 years in NBA.
2023/24	$33,074,877	4.5% raise on third-year salary.
Total	$83,704,377	Average annual salary of $20,926,094.

In order to make the sort of offer outlined above, a team must have enough cap room to accommodate the average annual value of the contract. So a team with $21MM in cap space could extend this offer sheet to a first- or second-year RFA. But a team with only $17MM in cap space would have to reduce the third- and fourth-year salaries in its offer sheet to get the overall average salary of the offer down to $17MM per year.

The application of the Arenas provision is infrequent, since first- and second-year players who reach free agency rarely warrant such lucrative contract offers. First-round picks sign four-year rookie deals when they enter the NBA, so the Arenas provision generally applies to second-round picks or undrafted free agents whose first NBA contracts were only for one or two years.

One noteworthy example of the Arenas provision at work was Tyler Johnson‘s restricted free agency in 2016. The Heat had Early Bird rights on Johnson, who had only been in the NBA for two seasons. The Nets attempted to pry him away with an aggressive offer sheet that featured salaries of $5,628,000, $5,881,260, $19,245,370, and $19,245,370. It wasn’t the maximum that Brooklyn could have offered Johnson, but the massive third-year raise was a tough pill for Miami to swallow.

Overall, the deal was worth $50MM for four years. If the Heat had declined to match it, the Nets would have flattened out those annual cap hits to $12.5MM per year, the average annual value of the deal. However, due to the Arenas provision, Miami was able to match Brooklyn’s offer sheet with the Early Bird exception, even though the Heat wouldn’t have been able to offer Johnson a four-year, $50MM contract using the Early Bird exception outright.

When a team matches an Arenas-provision offer sheet, it also has the option of flattening those cap charges. However, that option is only available if the team has the cap room necessary to accommodate the average annual value of the deal. Otherwise, the club has to keep the unbalanced cap charges on its books. That’s why Johnson’s cap hit for the Heat jumped from $5,881,260 in 2017/18 to an eye-popping $19,245,370 in 2018/19, essentially turning the young guard from a good value to a salary-dump candidate overnight.

In 2020, there aren’t many restricted free agents who will be candidates for an Arenas-provision offer sheet. Top RFAs like Brandon Ingram and Bogdan Bogdanovic have four years of experience, so the rule won’t apply to them. The best candidate for an Arenas-provision offer sheet may be Grizzlies guard De’Anthony Melton, who emerged as an important rotation player in his second NBA season. But I’d be pretty surprised if Melton gets an offer worth more than the standard non-taxpayer’s MLE.

Finally, just because a club is given the opportunity to use the Arenas provision to keep its restricted free agent doesn’t mean it will necessarily have the means. Here are a few situations in which the Arenas provision wouldn’t help a team keep its restricted free agent:

If the team only had the taxpayer mid-level exception or room exception available, it would be unable to match an offer sheet for a Non-Bird free agent if the starting salary exceeded the taxpayer mid-level or room exception amount.
A team would be unable to match an offer sheet for a Non-Bird free agent if it used its mid-level exception on another player, including another one of its own Non-Bird free agents. A team could use Early Bird rights to match if those rights are available, however.
If the player is a Non-Bird or Early Bird free agent with three years of NBA experience, the Arenas provision would not apply — only players with one or two years in the league are eligible.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

October 30th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

The Clippers currently have approximately $109MM committed to nine guaranteed salaries for 2020/21. That figure doesn’t account for potential free agents like Montrezl Harrell, Marcus Morris, and JaMychal Green. The team will definitely be over the cap and could approach the tax line if it wants to re-sign more than one of those free agents.

If the Clippers’ team salary increases significantly as a result of re-signing those free agents, they may be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM). If not, they’ll have the full MLE ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) available. The club also had a couple modest trade exceptions on hand, including one worth $3.57MM.

Our full salary cap preview for the Clippers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

JaMychal Green, player option: $5,005,350

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Joakim Noah ($2,692,991)

Two-Way Contracts:

Amir Coffey (expires in 2021)
Johnathan Motley (expiring)

Free Agents:

Montrezl Harrell (Bird)
Marcus Morris (Non-Bird)
Reggie Jackson (Non-Bird)
Patrick Patterson (Non-Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

None

Second Round:

No. 57 overall pick

The Clippers hung onto their own second-round pick at No. 57, but sent their first-rounder (No. 27) to the Knicks at the 2020 deadline in a deal for Marcus Morris.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Which frontcourt free agent(s) will the Clippers prioritize?

The Clippers’ stars remain under contract through next season, as do key backcourt contributors like Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams. However, many of Los Angeles’ most important frontcourt players not named Kawhi Leonard or Paul George are eligible to his the open market, creating some difficult decisions for the franchise.

Montrezl Harrell, coming off a Sixth Man of the Year award, will be an unrestricted free agent and is poised to be one of the most talented big men on the market. He’s still just 26 years old and has put up big-time offensive numbers since arriving in L.A., including an average of 18.6 PPG on 58.0% shooting in 63 games in 2019/20.

Fortunately for the Clippers, and unfortunately for Harrell, this isn’t 2016. There’s not an abundance of league-wide cap room available, and teams probably aren’t going to reward a non-star center with a massive long-term contract like the ones Joakim Noah, Bismack Biyombo, and Ian Mahinmi received four years ago.

That doesn’t mean that Harrell isn’t in line for a nice payday, but he’s unlikely to cost $20MM per year to retain. ESPN’s Bobby Marks estimated that the Clippers’ big man will receive a starting salary in the $10-12MM range. I think he could do a little better than that, but his defensive inconsistency will limit his value. And if the few teams with cap room use that space on other players, Harrell’s options will be extremely limited.

The Clippers’ decision on Harrell will be tied to which direction the team goes on two power forwards, Marcus Morris and JaMychal Green. Morris is an unrestricted free agent, while Green can also become a UFA if he turns down his $5MM player option — given the role he played on the Clippers, he can reasonably argue he outperformed that option.

Morris’ offensive numbers fell off substantially after he was traded from the Knicks to L.A., but he’ll still be a sought-after veteran this offseason — his toughness, size, defensive versatility, and scoring ability make him an easy fit on just about any contender. Marks estimates that Morris’ starting salary might be in the same range as Harrell’s ($10-12MM), though teams may be more reluctant to offer the 31-year-old a long-term deal.

As for Green, he’ll likely be the most affordable of the three, but getting him back on another $5MM deal might be too optimistic. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s offered a contract similar to the two-year, $16MM pact he signed with Memphis in 2017.

The Clippers, who already project to be over the cap without accounting for any of their free agents, probably aren’t enthusiastic about the idea of going into tax territory to re-sign Harrell, Morris, and Green without making any other upgrades. So something’s got to give here, and it will be fascinating to see which of these players becomes the Clippers’ top priority and which is viewed as expendable.

2. How will the Clippers address the point guard position?

A consensus emerged following the Clippers’ disappointing second-round exit last month that while the team had a deep, versatile roster, it could have used a point guard capable of assuming more ball-handling and play-making responsibilities.

When Leonard won titles in San Antonio and Toronto, he did so alongside Tony Parker and Kyle Lowry, respectively — there was no point guard like that on L.A.’s 2019/20 roster. Beverley is a strong defender but isn’t a dynamic offensive player, while Williams is more of a score-first player and Reggie Jackson couldn’t be relied upon for major playoff minutes.

It will be a challenge for the Clippers to find the kind of player they’re looking for on the free agent market this fall. Fred VanVleet will be out of their price range and most of the other point guards available won’t move the needle for L.A. — veterans like D.J. Augustin or Jeff Teague are solid but probably not the extra piece a team needs to win a championship.

The two most intriguing names on the free agent market are Rajon Rondo and Goran Dragic. The Clippers have already been linked to Rondo, who played an important part in helping the Lakers capture their 17th championship and should be attainable for a deal worth the mid-level or less. He’d be a nice fit — especially since signing him away from the Lakers would help weaken the defending champions’ roster.

As for Dragic, he’s less likely to be within the Clippers’ price range. It’s possible a multiyear deal could lure him away from the Heat, who figure to make him a sizeable one-year offer. But a salary in the mid-level range probably won’t be enough to do it.

If the Clippers don’t land Rondo and don’t like their other free agent options, pursuing a trade could be the way to go. Unfortunately, some of the veteran point guards who would be the best fits – such as Chris Paul, Mike Conley, and Lowry – are impractical trade targets for various reasons, including their mammoth cap hits. But there are more affordable players out there who could realistically be available, like perhaps Ricky Rubio, Dennis Schroder, and Derrick Rose.

3. Are Leonard and George in it for the long haul?

It was a major coup for a long-downtrodden franchise last July when Leonard chose to sign with the Clippers and essentially brought George along with him in a trade from the Thunder.

The moves instantly made L.A. a title contender and generated so much excitement that it was easy to overlook one key detail — the contract Kawhi signed was only for three years, with a player option after year two. That means both he and George will be eligible to reach free agency in 2021, just one year from now.

Technically then, Leonard’s and George’s futures are questions that will have to be answered next offseason and not necessarily this year. But with that uncertainty looming over the franchise, there will be added urgency in the front office to make sure this year’s roster has the right pieces in place to make a championship run. Another early exit in the playoffs could significantly dent the Clippers’ odds of keeping their two star forwards for the long term.

While the Clippers will do what they can to make sure Leonard and George are happy, the odds that the two stars will bolt in a year seem low to me.

They’re both Southern California natives who chose Los Angeles over every any other potential destination — Kawhi left a championship team to move home, while George has been talking for years about the possibility of playing in L.A., even as he signed a new deal with the Thunder. Plus, Leonard’s decision to sign a shorter-term contract can be attributed to his desire to ink a more lucrative maximum-salary contract once he earns 10 years of NBA experience after next season.

Even if the idea of Leonard and George jumping ship is a long shot, the Clippers can’t take anything for granted. But if they can get any sort of assurances from those two stars that they’re planning on sticking around for the long haul, it’ll make it easier for the team to bring in the necessary pieces without making any panicky, short-term moves.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Clippers Moves

October 27th, 2020 at 8:40pm CST by Dana Gauruder

With the possible exception of the Bucks, no team left the Orlando campus more disappointed that the Clippers.

Expectations of a championship for the long-downtrodden franchise went through the roof after they signed superstar free agent Kawhi Leonard and made a blockbuster trade for Paul George last summer.

They appeared headed for a Western Conference Finals showdown with the Lakers until they squandered some big leads and a 3-1 series lead to the upstart Nuggets.

The flameout ultimately cost head coach Doc Rivers his job. The front office settled on Rivers’ top assistant and former Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue to replace him.

As long as Leonard and George stay healthy, the Clippers will undoubtedly make the postseason again but the memories of their collapse will linger unless they make amends and reach the Finals.

Beyond their perennial All-Stars, the Clippers have some tough decisions to make regarding their roster. Young center Ivica Zubac and guards Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams and Landry Shamet are the only other rotation players locked into contracts for next seasons. Their prospects for making a significant trade are dim, considering they gave up a bucketful of first rounders to acquire George.

JaMychal Green has a $5MM option on his contract and should he decline it, the Clippers will have to rebuild their frontcourt. Marcus Morris and Montrezl Harrell are headed to unrestricted free agency and the Clippers already have $109MM in salary commitments to nine players.

Harrell won the Sixth Man of the Year award but he had a rather forgettable experience in Orlando. Morris will attract plenty of interest in the free agent market, though he didn’t have as great an impact as the Clippers hoped when they traded for him in February.

The front office will have to prioritize which of those forwards they wish to retain and likely dip into the free agent market to fortify the guard rotation and frontcourt. Depending on whether they have a full mid-level exception or the taxpayers’ MLE, they could be looking at players such as Goran Dragic, D.J. Augustin, Jeff Teague, Serge Ibaka, Derrick Favors, Marc Gasol and Aron Baynes.

That brings us to our topic of the day: What should the Clippers do in free agency? Should they concentrate on re-signing their prominent free agents or pursue other options?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Poll: Rockets’ Next Head Coach

October 27th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

One of two teams that has yet to hire a new head coach, the Rockets are taking their time to finalize a decision on who will replace Mike D’Antoni. It has been over six weeks since D’Antoni and the team went their separate ways, and it has been nearly two weeks since a report suggested the Rockets had narrowed their search to three candidates.

Since Jeff Van Gundy, John Lucas, and Stephen Silas were identified as the Rockets’ presumed finalists, there have been conflicting reports on which candidate has the upper hand.

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst suggested last week during a TV appearance that Lucas had emerged as the frontrunner for the position and seemed to imply that Van Gundy was no longer a serious candidate. However, his colleague Adrian Wojnarowski said on SportsCenter later that day that Van Gundy had remained the “focus” of Houston’s search and that conversations between the two sides were continuing.

Providing an update this week on the state of the Rockets’ search, Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (video link) said he doesn’t believe Lucas is the favorite.

“I really think at this point it’s going to be Jeff Van Gundy or Stephen Silas,” Feigen said. “John Lucas was – and is – a good candidate that they very seriously considered, and are considering, but I think it’s those two.”

Feigen explained that the Rockets’ desire to involve several different members of the organization in the decision – from the basketball operations department to team ownership to players – is one reason why the team has yet to make a hire. But with the draft just weeks away and free agency and training camps expected to follow shortly thereafter, it’s safe to assume Houston will finalize its decision pretty soon.

With that in mind, we want to know which direction you think the Rockets will go with their hire.

Will they lure Van Gundy away from the broadcast booth for another go-round in Houston? Will they stay in-house and promote Lucas, making him an NBA head coach for the first time since 2003? Will they opt for a first-time head coach with plenty of assistant experience in Silas? Or is there still time for the team to go off script and bring in someone unexpected for the job?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts on which candidate the Rockets will – and should – hire to replace D’Antoni.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Community Shootaround: Start Of Next Season

October 26th, 2020 at 8:44pm CST by Dana Gauruder

It took a few extra months to get to the finish line of the 2019/20 season. The starting point of next season is now shrouded in mystery.

As we noted earlier today, there’s great uncertainty regarding next season’s schedule.

In June, the league projected a December 1 start to next season. In September, the league office told the league’s Board of Governors the season wouldn’t start until after Christmas. There were projections that the season might start as late as March.

That all changed during a Board of Governors meeting last week, as the league’s finance committee recommended a pre-Christmas start date. Naturally, Christmas Day is normally a showcase for the league with a handful of games spread throughout the holiday but the revenue concerns come more at the back end than the front end.

The restart playoffs were a TV ratings dud, as fans were not accustomed to watching regular season and postseason games during the summertime and early fall. There’s also a strong desire among the league’s power brokers to have some sense of normalcy by the 2021/22 season, with that season beginning with a usual starting point in late October.

However, selling the players on this plan won’t be a slam dunk, particularly among the playoff participants. During a TV interview on Monday, Lakers guard Danny Green predicted numerous players would sit out the early portion of the season, adding that “I wouldn’t expect [LeBron James] to be there for the first month of the season.”

A quick turnaround would also make it much less likely to have fans in the stands as well as shortening the free agency period following the November draft. On the flip side. an earlier start date could preserve as much as $500MM in revenue, according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania.

That leads us to our question of the day: Should the NBA start next season around Christmas in order to finish earlier in the summer? Or should the league wait until later in the winter in order to give the players more rest and increase the chances of having fans in the stands?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

October 26th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

Taking into account their eight players with guaranteed salaries and the cap hold for the first-round pick, the Bucks already have $116MM in commitments on their books for 2020/21, so they’ll be over the cap.

There are some other wild cards to consider here, including Ersan Ilyasova‘s non-guaranteed $7MM salary, a pair of player options, and the Bucks’ desire to add an impact player.

I’d ultimately expect Milwaukee to be in the tax or close to it, limiting the team to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM). But if the club maintains some maneuverability below the tax line, it could have the full MLE ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) to work with.

Our full salary cap preview for the Bucks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Robin Lopez, player option: $5,005,350
Wesley Matthews, player option: $2,692,991

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Ersan Ilyasova ($7,000,000)

Two-Way Contracts:

Frank Mason (expiring)
Cameron Reynolds (expiring)

Free Agents:

Pat Connaughton (Early Bird)
Kyle Korver (Non-Bird)
Marvin Williams (Non-Bird)
Sterling Brown (RFA; Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 24 overall pick

Second Round:

None

The Bucks’ own draft picks (Nos. 30 and 60) belong to Boston and New Orleans, respectively. The first-rounder was part of the package sent to Phoenix in 2017 for Eric Bledsoe before it was eventually rerouted to the Celtics. The second-rounder was one of several picks Milwaukee traded to the Pelicans for Nikola Mirotic at the 2019 deadline.

Milwaukee regained a first-round pick (No. 24 overall) in last summer’s sign-and-trade deal that sent Malcolm Brogdon to the Pacers.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Giannis Antetokounmpo sign a contract extension?

Antetokounmpo’s contract doesn’t expire until 2021, but the decision he makes in 2020 may have a greater impact and longer-term ramifications than any of this fall’s free agent signings. The two-time reigning MVP is up for a “super-max” contract extension that would start at 35% of the 2021/22 salary cap and would tack five years onto his current deal, locking him up through 2026.

There’s no doubt that the Bucks will put that offer on the table, but after two consecutive seasons of the team finishing the regular season with the NBA’s best record and then falling short of the Finals in the postseason, it remains to be seen whether Giannis will accept it.

Antetokounmpo has said all the right things about his desire to remain in Milwaukee long-term and to win a championship with the Bucks. And while NBA fans have been conditioned to treat those sort of remarks with skepticism, there’s reason to believe Giannis’ comments are more genuine than most.

The Bucks’ star has spoken in the past about preferring to beat his fellow superstars rather than befriending and teaming up with them. He didn’t grow up playing on the AAU circuit and isn’t part of the Team USA program, so he hasn’t used those avenues to build relationships and plot unions like some stars have in the past. Additionally, Milwaukee is the only home Antetokounmpo has known since he arrived in the U.S., which means he’s unlikely to pull a Kawhi Leonard — Leonard, of course, chose to return home to Los Angeles last summer despite having just won a championship in Toronto.

Still, while there are plenty of factors working in the Bucks’ favor, there are also some reasons why Giannis may not be eager to immediately sign up for five more years in Milwaukee.

The Bucks’ last two playoff exits have been especially disappointing — the team blew a 2-0 in the Eastern Finals in 2019, then couldn’t muster more than a single win against an underdog Heat team in the second round of the 2020 postseason. On top of that, the coronavirus pandemic has complicated the NBA’s salary cap outlook for the next two or three seasons, meaning Antetokounmpo may be incentivized to sign shorter-term deals until the cap starts to rise again.

While it’s certainly not out of the question that Antetokounmpo signs a super-max extension with the Bucks this offseason, my feeling for now is that he’s more likely to put off that decision. He could sign the same five-year, super-max offer with Milwaukee as a free agent in 2021, and by that point, he should have a clearer picture of the NBA’s financial outlook. He’ll also have another playoff run with the Bucks under his belt, giving him a better idea of whether the club is a legit title contender. It’s even possible the club will win a title in 2021, which would presumably make his decision that much easier.

If Giannis isn’t ready to commit to a five-year extension, but doesn’t want the contract situation hanging over his head all season, a shorter-term extension – like the one Bradley Beal signed last year with the Wizards – is another option. However, that would close the door on the super-max possibility until he gains 10 years of NBA experience in 2023 and might mean accepting less than even the 30% max in 2021/22. In other words, if he’s looking to maximize his future earnings, signing a bridge extension a year before free agency probably isn’t the right play.

2. Is Bucks ownership ready to pay the tax?

As Antetokounmpo mulls a potential long-term commitment to the Bucks, it may be time for the team’s ownership group to prove it’s serious about investing big money not just in its superstar, but in the roster around him.

Following the Bucks’ elimination from the playoffs in September, co-owner Marc Lasry met with Antetokounmpo and reportedly assured him that the team is ready and willing to spend into the luxury tax to make upgrades.

The fact that Milwaukee signed-and-traded free agent guard Malcolm Brogdon to a division rival in 2019 rather than signing him to a new contract would seem to contradict the assertion that the team has no qualms about becoming a taxpayer. But it’s worth noting that the Bucks were said to have some long-term health concerns about Brogdon — it’s possible they simply didn’t feel he was the right player for that sort of investment.

Now that we’re a year closer to Antetokounmpo’s potential free agency, there’s more urgency for the Bucks to do all they can to ensure their star wants to stick around. And Lasry and his co-owners are positioned to have an immediate opportunity to back up their words with actions.

The Bucks only have about $114MM committed to eight guaranteed salaries for now, but that figure would surpass $128MM if Ersan Ilyasova is retained, Robin Lopez opts in, and the club keeps its first-round pick. And it would go even higher if the team wants to retain Pat Connaughton or Wesley Matthews, or bring in adequate replacements. Using the mid-level exception and/or making a trade that adds team salary could make the Bucks a taxpayer, especially if the threshold ($132.6MM) remains unchanged for next season.

The Bucks will likely become more comfortable with paying an annual tax bill – including potential repeater penalties down the road – if Giannis signs an extension and they know he’ll be around for the next half-decade. But they can’t wait until after Giannis re-ups to exhibit their willingness to spend big. Making upgrades and going into the tax for 2020/21 will show the two-time MVP they’re serious without necessarily putting them on the hook for future tax payments if Antetokounmpo ultimately decides to leave.

3. Can the Bucks acquire an impact player by building a trade package around Eric Bledsoe?

Free agency will be one potential avenue for the Bucks as they consider roster upgrades this offseason, but they won’t have any cap room available. And if they’d prefer to avoid becoming hard-capped, then using the full mid-level exception or acquiring a player via sign-and-trade won’t be options either. That means Milwaukee’s most intriguing path to acquiring a potential impact player is via the trade market.

The Bucks have a few pieces they could package in trade offers this fall. Bledsoe ($16.9MM) is the club’s most obvious trade chip, both because his salary is useful for matching purposes and because he has been an offensive liability in the postseason over the last two years, despite impressive regular season performances. George Hill (9.6MM) and Ilysaova ($7MM) are among the team’s other potential veteran assets, though Ilyasova’s expiring contract would have to be fully guaranteed if it’s to be used for salary matching.

Those three players are useful rotation pieces, but they’re not moving the needle in a major way for any team shopping an impact player. The Bucks will have to sweeten the pot a little, perhaps offering the Pacers’ 2020 first-round pick (No. 24), along with at least one of their own future first-rounders. Having already conditionally dealt their 2022 pick, a ’24 first-rounder is probably the best Milwaukee can do.

It’s a somewhat underwhelming package — if the Bucks go after someone like Jrue Holiday, they’ll almost certainly be outbid by other suitors. But an offer headed by Bledsoe and a couple first-rounders might be enough to land a player like Chris Paul (whose massive contract hurts his value), Buddy Hield (who may have worn out his welcome in Sacramento), or even Victor Oladipo (who didn’t look fully healthy this season).

I think Paul, in particular, would be a nice fit for the Bucks. The veteran point guard could share ball-handling duties with Giannis and would provide the sort of reliable shooting that Bledsoe hasn’t — he wouldn’t be a major downgrade on defense either. However, a September report suggested it’s “highly unlikely” that Milwaukee goes after CP3. His contract is apparently a concern, as is bringing a strong veteran personality onto a roster that already has a superstar leader in Antetokounmpo.

If Paul isn’t high on the Bucks’ list of potential targets, I’ll be curious to learn who is. It’s possible the front office believes only minor roster adjustments are necessary, given the team’s regular season track record since 2018. But adding a reliable play-maker and shot-maker to the backcourt would make Milwaukee an even more formidable postseason threat, and I’m skeptical that sort of difference-maker will be affordable and attainable in free agency.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Best, Worst Head Coaching Hires

October 24th, 2020 at 8:03pm CST by Arthur Hill

More coaching vacancies were filled this week, with Nate Bjorkgren and Stan Van Gundy becoming the sixth and seventh head coaches hired since July. The Pacers believe Bjorkgren can deliver the modern offense they were looking for when they decided to replace Nate McMillan, while the Pelicans were impressed by Van Gundy’s leadership skills and his track record at his previous stops in Miami, Orlando and Detroit.

Earlier in the week, the Clippers officially promoted Tyronn Lue to head coach to take over for Doc Rivers. Lue inherits one of the most talented rosters in the league and already has a familiarity with his players after serving as lead assistant under Rivers for the past year.

This year’s coaching moves started in late July when the Knicks reached an agreement to bring Tom Thibodeau to New York. Thibodeau was rumored to be in contention for jobs with several teams that were part of the NBA’s restart, so the Knicks took advantage of their opportunity as one of the league’s eight inactive clubs.

Steve Nash was the most surprising move of the offseason as the Nets hired the two-time MVP as their head coach without any previous experience. Nash beat out interim coach Jacque Vaughn, along with an impressive field of rumored candidates that included Lue, Lakers assistant Jason Kidd, ABC/ESPN broadcasters Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson and Sixers assistant Ime Udoka.

Two other head coaches were hired shortly after being dismissed by other teams. The Sixers jumped at the chance to add Rivers, reaching an agreement three days after he was fired by the Clippers. Likewise, the Bulls pounced on Billy Donovan after the Thunder let him go.

Houston and Oklahoma City still have vacancies to fill, but we want to get your feedback on the coaching changes so far. Which teams made the best and worst decisions in choosing their head coaches? Please leave your answers in the comment section.

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