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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

October 21st, 2020 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Toronto Raptors.

Salary Cap Outlook

Toronto has about $85MM committed to eight players and a first-round pick so far for the 2020/21 season, assuming Stanley Johnson opts in and the team retains Matt Thomas and Terence Davis. That theoretically puts the Raptors in position to create cap room, but re-signing one or more of their own veteran free agents – including Fred VanVleet and/or Serge Ibaka – will likely eliminate that room.

We’re assuming Toronto will operate as an over-the-cap club. Depending on what happens with VanVleet, Ibaka, and Marc Gasol, the team will likely have the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) available. If re-signing those veterans gets pricey, the Raptors may instead have to work with the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM). Either way, the team won’t have its bi-annual exception, having used it last season.

Our full salary cap preview for the Raptors can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Stanley Johnson, player option: $3,804,150

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Matt Thomas ($1,517,981)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $725K.
  • Terence Davis ($1,517,981)
  • Dewan Hernandez ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 29 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 59 overall pick

The Raptors, who finished the 2019/20 season with the NBA’s second-best record, didn’t trade away either of their draft picks and didn’t acquire any extra selections for this year.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will the Raptors re-sign Fred VanVleet?

The Raptors haven’t been shy about signing their own players to lucrative new contracts and extension in recent years. Kyle Lowry has signed a pair of new deals since 2017, both of which paid him more than $30MM annually; Serge Ibaka got a long-term deal worth nearly $22MM per year in 2017; and Pascal Siakam received a maximum-salary extension last fall.

That pattern suggests that the team should have no qualms about locking up VanVleet to a new contract this offseason that fairly reflects his market value. But even if the Raptors feel that way – and I think they do – their long-term salary cap outlook complicates matters.

Toronto has long had its eye on Giannis Antetokounmpo, who can become an unrestricted free agent in 2021 and is close with Raptors president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri. For the time being, Siakam’s $31MM cap hit is the only guaranteed money on the Raps’ books for 2021/22, and even though the team will also have to account for Norman Powell‘s player option, cap holds for OG Anunoby and Terence Davis, and some other small charges, that leaves plenty of room for a maximum-salary player.

However, if VanVleet signs a pricey new multiyear deal, his ’21/22 cap charge would cut into that remaining cap space in a major way.

We have no clear sense yet of where the NBA’s salary cap will land for ’21/22, and Powell’s extension and Anunoby’s next contract are wild cards that could affect how much flexibility the Raptors actually have a year from now. But as long as Ujiri and the Raps still have an outside shot at Antetokounmpo, the sense is that the franchise will want to maximize its cap room for 2021 as much as possible — and that will affect how much the club is willing to offer VanVleet this fall.

Now, that doesn’t mean that the Raptors will only be willing to offer a one-year contract to VanVleet. The expectation is that Toronto will still be able to make a competitive offer in the four-year, $80MM range for the starting guard. Structuring the deal so that it declines in value in year two before increasing again for the remaining years would create a small amount of added flexibility for the Raptors in 2021 as well.

Still, with Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram considered virtual locks to return to their respective clubs, VanVleet may end up being the top free agent on the market this offseason. Rebuilding teams with plenty of cap room – such as the Pistons, Hawks, and Knicks – will be in position to top a four-year, $80MM offer if they so choose.

If one of those teams is willing to offer $10-15MM more than Toronto does, would that difference be enough to convince VanVleet to jump ship for a lottery club? What if one of those clubs goes even higher?

Would the Raptors be willing to increase their own offer and sacrifice potential a max-salary slot for 2021, figuring that if Antetokounmpo or another top free agent really wants to come to Toronto, they’ll be able to figure out a way to make it happen? And would the Raptors change their approach on VanVleet at all if Giannis re-ups with Milwaukee this offseason?

At this point, I think it’s probably more likely than not that the Raptors will be able to retain VanVleet rather than losing him for nothing, but the situation definitely isn’t cut-and-dried, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

2. Will the Raptors re-sign Marc Gasol and/or Serge Ibaka?

While VanVleet is the Raptors’ top priority in free agency, two of the team’s other top seven players are eligible for new deals this fall as well — Gasol and Ibaka.

It’s possible that Gasol – who will turn 36 this winter – will decide to return home to Spain, joining his old team in Barcelona. So far though, there has been no confirmation that that’s his plan, as rumors suggesting a potential reunion between the veteran center and the Spanish club were quickly shot down. So an NBA deal remains in play for Gasol.

As for Ibaka, there’s no doubt he’ll be continuing his career in the NBA. The 31-year-old is coming off one of his best seasons as a pro, having averaged 15.4 PPG and 8.2 RPG on .512/.385/.718 shooting in 55 games (27.0 MPG). His ability to stretch the floor on offense and protect the rim on defense should make him one of the more intriguing big men on the market this offseason.

If the Raptors bring back VanVleet, re-signing both Gasol and Ibaka may be a long shot. Unless at least one of the two accepts a team-friendly deal, Toronto would be at risk of going into tax territory by re-signing all of its key free agents. And given the way the NBA is trending, it doesn’t make sense for the team to invest big money in a pair of aging centers.

Re-signing one of the two seems realistic though, and I’d expect the Raptors to prioritize Ibaka. While Gasol’s box-score numbers undersell his value as a defender, passer, or screen-setter, he had clearly lost a step or two by the end of the 2019/20 season, and expecting a bounce-back year in his 13th NBA season is probably ill-advised.

The Raptors’ plan for Ibaka will likely be similar to what they did for Lowry — offer him a lucrative one-year contract that expires in 2021, allowing the club to retain flexibility for that offseason. Toronto should be able to afford to pay Ibaka a salary close to what he made last year ($23MM) without getting too close to the tax threshold. I wouldn’t expect any other teams to go anywhere near that figure, given the lack of leaguewide cap room.

If Ibaka does get a competitive multiyear offer from another team, the Raptors could shift their focus to a one-year deal for Gasol and perhaps use their mid-level exception to add more frontcourt depth.

3. Will the Raptors extend Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster soon?

The Raptors have one notable extension-eligible player this offseason, but a deal for that player (Anunoby) may not be a top priority. Although Toronto would certainly like to keep Anunoby in the picture for years to come, an early extension would eat into their 2021 cap space, and the team will have an opportunity to lock up the young forward as a restricted free agent next year.

For the time being then, the Raptors’ most important extension candidates are in their front office. Toronto’s president of basketball operations (Ujiri) and general manager (Webster) are entering the final year of their respective contracts, and signing them to new ones has to be a top priority for the organization.

The Raptors already completed a new deal with head coach Nick Nurse this fall, and a report around that time suggested there were rumblings this summer that extensions for Ujiri and Webster were likely to follow. Over a month later though, there’s still no update on either front.

There’s no reason for Raptors fans to panic yet. Interest in Ujiri and Webster from rival franchises has frequently been rebuffed, and Larry Tanenbaum – the chairman of the team’s ownership group – has vowed to get something done.

Still, fans in Toronto will be able to breathe a little easier if and when word of new deals for the team’s top decision-makers breaks. Ujiri and Webster have led a front office that has become one of the NBA’s best at identifying under-the-radar talent, and they’ve helped turn the Raptors into one of the league’s more respected franchises.

Five or 10 years ago, the idea of a player of Antetokounmpo’s caliber giving any consideration to making the move to Toronto would have been laughable. It’s still probably a long shot, but it can no longer be dismissed out of hand — Ujiri and his group have made the Raptors a team that players around the league have to take seriously.

That progress wouldn’t necessarily be undone if Ujiri and/or Webster leaves next year, but keeping the duo around would be the best way for the Raptors to continue building on that progress.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Future

October 20th, 2020 at 9:54am CST by Luke Adams

Although he won’t be among this year’s pool of NBA free agents, Giannis Antetokounmpo may be the player whose next move is monitored closest this offseason.

Entering the final year of his contract with the Bucks, Antetokounmpo will be eligible for a five-year, super-max extension that would make him one of the NBA’s highest-paid players for years to come. However, after Milwaukee’s disappointing playoff showings during the last two seasons, there’s no guarantee that Giannis will sign that extension as soon as he’s eligible to do so.

Despite those postseason exits, Antetokunmpo has said all the right things about his desire to remain in Milwaukee long-term. And while we’ve heard those kind of comments before from star players who eventually leave their teams, Giannis’ stance seems genuine.

Milwaukee is the only home he has known since arriving in America, the Bucks are a talented team that has led the NBA in wins over the last two years, and Antetokounmpo doesn’t sound like he’s simply reading from a generic script when he talks about wanting to break through and win a title with the Bucks.

Still, until Antetokounmpo officially puts pen to paper on a new contract, anything can happen. Specifically, there are four scenarios that could play out for Giannis and the Bucks over the next year.

  1. Antetokounmpo signs a five-year, super-max extension with the Bucks this offseason. It would go into effect in 2021/22 and would start at 35% of the cap for that year.
  2. Antetokounmpo forgoes an extension this offseason, but remains with the Bucks for another year, then signs a new deal with the team during the 2021 offseason. He could still sign the five-year super-max in ’21. Or he could opt for a shorter-term deal, especially if the league’s updated salary cap projections suggest that approach might be more financially advantageous in the long run.
  3. Antetokounmpo doesn’t sign an extension this offseason, then joins a new team when he reaches free agency in 2021 — either by signing outright or via sign-and-trade. His max contract would be for four years, starting at 30% of the cap.
  4. Antetokounmpo doesn’t sign an extension this offseason and is traded before the 2021 deadline.

The fourth option has always seemed like the least probable outcome to me. As Tim Bontemps of ESPN reiterated this week, the Bucks are opposed to the idea of trading Antetokounmpo before his contract expires, preferring to make another run at a title with him in 2021. I imagine the team would only seriously consider a trade if Antetokounmpo asks for one, and he has stated he has no plans to do so.

The other three options are all more realistic possibilities, though I don’t have a feel yet for which outcome is likeliest. The Bucks will be able to put their super-max offer on the table for Antetokounmpo once the 2020/21 league year begins, which figures to happen in late November or early December. We should get a better idea by that point whether he’ll accept that offer this offseason.

If he doesn’t, the Bucks don’t need to panic. They’ll be able to put that same super-max offer back in play during the 2021 offseason and it’s worth more years and more money than Antetokoumpo can get anywhere else. Plus, if the Bucks can make the roster upgrades necessary to make a run to the NBA Finals in ’21, that would go a long way toward selling Giannis on a long-term future in Milwaukee.

We want to know what you think. Which outcome is the most likely for Antetokounmpo and the Bucks? Do you envision him remaining in Milwaukee for years to come, or are his days as a Buck numbered?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Hard Cap

October 19th, 2020 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s salary cap is a “soft” cap, which is why every single club’s team salary comfortably surpassed $109,141,000 at some point during the 2019/20 season. Once a team uses up all of its cap room, it can use a series of exceptions, including the mid-level, bi-annual, and various forms of Bird rights, to exceed the cap.

Since the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t feature a “hard” cap by default, teams can construct rosters that not only exceed the cap but also blow past the luxury tax line ($132,627,000 in ’19/20). While it would be nearly impossible in practical terms, there’s technically no rule restricting a club from having a team salary worth double or triple the salary cap.

However, there are certain scenarios in which a team can be hard-capped. Those scenarios are as follows:

  1. The team uses its bi-annual exception to sign a player.
  2. The team uses more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level exception to sign a player (or multiple players).
    • Note: In 2019/20, the taxpayer MLE was worth $5,718,000, compared to $9,258,000 for the full non-taxpayer MLE.
  3. The team acquires a player via sign-and-trade.

A team making any of those three roster moves must ensure that its team salary is below the “tax apron” when it finalizes the transaction and stays below the apron for the rest of the league year. The tax apron was set $6MM above the luxury tax line in 2017/18 (the first year of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement) and creeps up a little higher each season as long as the cap keeps increasing.

For the 2019/20 league year, the tax apron – and the hard cap for certain clubs – was set at $138,928,000. Assuming the cap doesn’t change by much for the 2020/21, the apron figures to remain relatively unchanged for next season.

Last offseason, before the Warriors acquired D’Angelo Russell in a sign-and-trade deal, they had to dump Andre Iguodala‘s $17MM+ salary in a trade and waive Shaun Livingston‘s partially guaranteed contract to ensure their team salary was below the apron upon acquiring Russell.

Golden State then had to remain below the apron for the rest of the season, which was why the team spent much of the year carrying fewer than 15 players on standard contracts — even an extra minimum-salary player would’ve compromised the Warriors’ ability to stay below the hard cap. Golden State made some trades at the deadline that created some breathing room below the apron and allowed the club to fill its 15-man roster.

Many other teams technically faced hard caps during the 2020/21 season, but the Warriors were the team most affected by the restrictions imposed upon them. Most of the other teams with hard caps never got close to the $138,928,000 apron.

Once the 2020/21 league year officially gets underway, the Warriors will no longer be subject to the hard cap. And as long as they don’t use their bi-annual exception, acquire a player via sign-and-trade, or use more than the taxpayer portion of the mid-level, they won’t face a hard cap next season. So even though the Dubs already have a projected $142MM+ in guaranteed money on the books for ’20/21, they’ll still be able to make full use of their $17MM+ trade exception and $5.72MM taxpayer MLE if they so choose.

Finally, it’s worth noting that even though the Warriors will likely start the 2020/21 league year above the apron, that doesn’t mean they can’t become hard-capped at some point later in ’20/21. For example, if Golden State kicked off the offseason by trading Andrew Wiggins‘ $29.5MM contract without taking back any salary in return, then subsequently used its full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception, the team would once again be prohibited from surpassing the apron for the rest of the league year.

In other words, the hard cap applies from the moment a team completes one of the three transactions listed above, but isn’t applied retroactively.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: How Many More Rings For LeBron?

October 17th, 2020 at 8:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

Last summer, it appeared LeBron James might have to be content with three championship rings. He was 34, well past the prime for most NBA players, and was coming off the most serious injury of his career. He was also sitting out the playoffs for the first time since the 2004/05 season.

Everything looks different now, of course. LeBron and the Lakers tore through the competition in Orlando, being pushed past five games only by the Heat. James averaged 29.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists during the Finals and became the second-oldest player ever to win Finals MVP honors.

A fourth championship ring enhances his place in history and gives him a chance to join even more elite company. Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson and Tim Duncan are among the players with five. Michael Jordan, whom James is frequently compared to, has six, as do Scottie Pippen, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bob Cousy.

The Lakers look capable of winning multiple titles. Anthony Davis turned out to be a perfect complement for James and may be at the peak of his career at age 27. The rest of the roster is a mix of youth and veterans who all fit well into their prescribed roles. Avery Bradley, who opted out of the restart, seems likely to return next season, adding another strong defensive presence to the backcourt.

The biggest wild card is how long James can remain at an elite level. He averaged 34.6 minutes per game this season, which is the lowest of his career, but not by much. James led the league in assists for the first time at 10.2 per game, while adding 25.3 points and 7.8 rebounds. Remarkably, his production per 36 minutes has barely changed from a decade ago.

James is under contract for one more season and holds a $41MM player option for 2021/22. There’s no certainty beyond that, but he hasn’t even hinted at retirement. The Lakers will try to maximize his title opportunities for as long as he’s on the roster and have shown a willingness to spend whatever is necessary.

We want to get your opinion. How many more titles do you believe James will win before retirement? Please leave your answers in the comment section.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

October 16th, 2020 at 3:33pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Salary Cap Outlook

After paying tax penalties for five of the last six seasons, the Thunder don’t project to be above the luxury-tax line in 2020/21. Still, with $101.75MM already committed to nine roster spots (eight guaranteed contracts and a first-round pick), it won’t be easy to create any cap room. Barring a trade that significantly reduces salary, Oklahoma City will likely operate as an over-the-cap team.

In that scenario, the Thunder would have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM). If the team cuts costs and ends up using cap space, it would lose those exceptions along with a couple sizeable trade exceptions, but would gain access to the room exception ($4.77MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Thunder can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Mike Muscala, player option: $2,283,034
  • Abdel Nader, team option: $1,752,950
    • Note: Salary doesn’t immediately become guaranteed if option is exercised.
  • Deonte Burton, team option: $1,663,861
    • Note: Salary will become partially guaranteed for $1.1MM if option is exercised.
  • Hamidou Diallo, team option: $1,663,861

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • None

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 25 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 53 overall pick

The Thunder’s first-round pick this year is Denver’s pick, which they acquired last July. Oklahoma City’s own pick (No. 21) was sent to Philadelphia back in 2016. In an odd coincidence, both selections were traded for Jerami Grant.

The second-round pick is the Thunder’s own. Because they technically won a three-way tiebreaker in the first round (which the Sixers benefited from), the Thunder’s second-rounder landed at No. 53 instead of 51 or 52.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Is Sam Presti ready to launch a rebuild?

The Thunder finished the 2019/20 season tied for the fourth-best record in the Western Conference (44-28) and pushed the Rockets to seven games in the first round before being eliminated.

The team outperformed expectations this season, but there’s reason to believe that success could be replicated in 2020/21. Chris Paul, Dennis Schröder, and Steven Adams are still under contract. So are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, and Darius Bazley, and they should only improve going forward. Danilo Gallinari could be re-signed without going into tax territory. And with all the future first-round picks Oklahoma City has in hand, adding an impact player in a trade isn’t out of the question either.

However, there are signs the Thunder aren’t planning to go in that direction. The most glaring of those is the team’s inability to come to an agreement with head coach Billy Donovan, who elected to part ways with OKC despite receiving a multiyear contract offer from the club.

Reports at the time of the split – as well as comments from Presti himself – indicated that the Thunder and Donovan might not have been on the same page regarding the direction in the franchise. In other words, Donovan didn’t want to stick around only for the roster to undergo a retooling process, while Presti seems far more prepared to go in that direction.

With Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, and Bazley all locked up for multiple years, the Thunder have a promising young core and won’t require a full teardown. But it wouldn’t be a surprise if Paul, Gallinari, Schröder, and Adams are all gone a year from now.

Gallinari is an unrestricted free agent this fall, so if the Thunder don’t re-sign him, their only hope of getting value in return would be through a sign-and-trade. Schröder and Adams will each be on expiring contracts in 2020/21, but the former will have much more trade value than the latter, whose $27.5MM cap hit will make it tricky find a taker. Paul, who is owed $85MM+ over the next two years, is the most fascinating trade candidate of the bunch — we’ll dig deeper into his situation below.

While I expect the Thunder to explore the trade market for all of those veterans this offseason, I don’t think there’s any urgency for the team to make deals right away. That’s especially true for guys like Paul and Adams. If trade partners aren’t willing to take on their oversized contracts without draft compensation, Oklahoma City can afford to be patient.

Adams will be off the books in 2021 and Paul will be entering the final year of his deal at that point. It’s not as if the Thunder need to clear cap room immediately in order to pursue free agents. Dipping into their cache of future first-round picks just to get off Adams’ or Paul’s contracts a year early would be a misuse of those resources.

In essence, while Presti and the Thunder may be prepared to retool their roster, there’s no need for a full teardown and there’s no rush to clear out the veterans as soon as possible. This rebuild can be a gradual one, and fully bottoming out shouldn’t be necessary.

2. Will Chris Paul be traded this offseason?

Paul is one of the NBA’s most interesting trade candidates this fall. He’s only a year removed from being attached to two first-round picks and two first-round pick swaps in a deal for Russell Westbrook, but his value has increased since then for a few reasons.

For one, Paul had a terrific year in 2019/20, staying healthy all season and averaging 17.6 PPG, 6.7 APG, and 5.0 RPG with a .489 FG% in 70 games (31.5 MPG), earning his first All-Star nod since 2016. Teams with interest in acquiring CP3 will recognize that he’s still an injury risk, but the fact that he continues to play at such a high level is encouraging — his production is unlikely to fall off a cliff in 2020/21 as long as he stays relatively healthy.

Paul’s oversized contract is also one year closer to ending now. If a team acquires him and doesn’t get the sort of production it hoped for, his cap hits ($41.4MM in ’20/21, $44.2MM in ’21/22) will be onerous in the short term, but won’t ruin the club’s flexibility for years to come.

This year’s week free agent class also helps boost Paul’s appeal. There are two 2020 All-Stars who are free agents this offseason, but both of them – Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram – are highly likely to return to their current teams. Teams looking to add an All-Star caliber impact player may view a trade for Paul as their best bet to do so.

Paul’s fate will ultimately come down to what sort of offers Oklahoma City gets. The Thunder’s ability to extract a first-round pick in a package for CP3 – or willingness to include one themselves – will hinge on what the rest of the return looks like.

For instance, I don’t think there’s any way the Thunder will attach a future first-rounder to Paul if the Sixers want them to take on Tobias Harris‘ or Al Horford‘s long-term contract, or if the Bucks want them to take Eric Bledsoe and other salary filler. In those scenarios, OKC would likely ask its trade partner to include a first-rounder.

On the other hand, if the Thunder’s return includes a promising young player who could become a building block in Oklahoma City, the team would presumably be more willing to surrender a future first-rounder in addition to Paul. It’s more difficult to construct a hypothetical deal along these lines. If the Knicks were willing to include Mitchell Robinson in their offer, they could probably land Paul and draft assets. But I don’t think New York would do that.

Although Paul’s value is difficult to nail down, I don’t see the Thunder viewing him as a salary dump. If they’re going to move him this fall, they’ll want some combination of cap relief, a draft pick, and/or players who can contribute. If the Thunder don’t get any offers that fit that bill, they can afford to hang onto their veteran point guard for the time being, as they did a year ago.

3. Who will the Thunder hire as their head coach?

There haven’t been many updates out of Oklahoma City on the team’s head coaching search since Donovan’s departure more than a month ago. I imagine the Thunder began the process of seeking a replacement at some point since then, so the radio silence is likely by design rather than an indication of inactivity.

Even without any leaks, we can make a few assumptions about the Thunder’s search.

For instance, based on the divide between Donovan and the organization, it’s a good bet that the club will be seeking a coach who’s comfortable with the idea of overseeing a rebuild.

Additionally, given the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic, I can’t see Oklahoma City paying big money to a head coach if the club doesn’t expect to be contending in the short term.

Those clues point to the Thunder targeting an up-and-coming candidate who may not have any previous head coaching experience. That lack of experience should keep his – or her – price tag in check. Still, the Thunder will want someone who has spent some time on NBA staffs so that they’re not hiring an entirely unknown commodity.

That profile fits with the few names we’ve heard linked to the job. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst initially identified Timberwolves associate head coach David Vanterpool, Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin and Spurs assistant Will Hardy as contenders, while Shams Charania of The Athletic later confirmed OKC’s interest in Hardy and added Thunder assistant Brian Keefe to the list of candidates.

Griffin and Keefe each have more than a decade of experience as NBA assistants under their belts and have worked for at least three teams apiece during that time. Vanterpool began his coaching career as a CSKA Moscow assistant and has worked on the Blazers’ and Wolves’ staffs since returning stateside in 2012. Hardy has only worked for the Spurs, but has made an impressive rise through the ranks since joining the team’s video department in 2011 and is now one of Gregg Popovich‘s top lieutenants.

It’s possible the Thunder’s list of coaching candidates will continue to grow in the coming days or weeks. Based on what we know so far though, it sounds like the club will be targeting a veteran assistant who has proven his bona fides at the NBA level and is ready for a promotion.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview Series

October 14th, 2020 at 5:02pm CST by Luke Adams

In advance of the NBA’s 2020 draft and free agent period, Hoops Rumors is previewing the coming offseason for all 30 teams, looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall.

Our Offseason Preview articles are linked below, sorted by conference and division. This list, which can be found under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu, will continue to be updated as we complete our previews for all 30 teams.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

Western Conference

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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Community Shootaround: Western Conference Odds For 2020/21

October 14th, 2020 at 3:04pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning the NBA Finals in 2020, the Lakers are currently listed by sportsbooks as the odds-on frontrunners to do so again in 2021.

Over at BetOnline.ag, oddsmakers have listed the Lakers as +275 favorites to come out of the Western Conference in 2020/21. That means if you place a $100 bet on the Lakers and they win the West next season, you’ll win $275.

While the Lakers are the current favorites, BetOnline.ag places two other Western Conference teams in roughly the same tier. The Clippers (+375) have the second-best odds to win the conference, while the Warriors (+400) have the third-best odds.

Golden State’s placement is an interesting one. We can safely assume that the Warriors will be much improved in 2020/21 with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in their lineup, and they have the resources necessary to make further roster upgrades. Still, the club is coming off a dismal 15-50 season that saw them finish in last place in the NBA. Winning the West in 2021 would represent a historic turnaround.

The rest of the odds to win the West next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:

  • Nuggets: +1200
  • Rockets: +1200
  • Mavericks: +1400
  • Trail Blazers: +1800
  • Jazz: +2500
  • Pelicans: +2500
  • Suns: +3300
  • Thunder: +4000
  • Grizzlies: +5000
  • Kings: +12500
  • Spurs: +12500
  • Timberwolves: +12500

As we acknowledged on Tuesday when we asked you for your thoughts on the Eastern Conference odds for 2020/21, it’s way too early to confidently predict next year’s conference champions. Rosters will undergo significant changes in the coming months in the draft and free agency, and on the trade market.

Still, the anticipated offseason directions for certain teams is baked into BetOnline’s odds. The Thunder would certainly be higher on the above list if the possibility of a rebuild wasn’t hanging over the franchise.

So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the West for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.

Should the Lakers be considered the favorites to come out of the West again in 2021? Are the Warriors or another team being overvalued? Are there other clubs being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the West next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Western Conference in 2020/21!

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

October 13th, 2020 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Indiana Pacers.

Salary Cap Outlook

After using their cap room last summer to sign or acquire multiyear, eight-figure contracts for Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. Warren, and Jeremy Lamb, the Pacers will have no space available this offseason.

With nearly $123MM in guaranteed money committed to 11 players so far, Indiana may not be in position to use its full mid-level exception without going into tax territory. The club is more likely to make use of the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Pacers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • None

Second Round:

  • No. 54 overall pick

The Pacers have their own second-round pick, but traded away their first-rounder (No. 24) to Milwaukee in last year’s Malcolm Brogdon sign-and-trade.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Has Victor Oladipo played his last game for the Pacers?

Oladipo will be entering a contract year in 2020/21 and he’s not a lock to remain in Indiana beyond his current deal. Ever since a spring report suggested that teams were monitoring Oladipo’s situation with the Pacers, rumors about his future have popped up more and more frequently.

The Heat were identified in the summer as a potential threat to lure Oladipo away from Indiana, with reports at the time suggesting the two-time All-Star would be prioritizing two things on his next contract: maximizing his earnings and putting himself in position to win a championship.

The unstated implication? If Oladipo decided the Pacers weren’t on track to become a legit title contender, it might make sense for him to push for a trade to a preferred destination sooner rather than later, since that would put him in position to get the best possible offer from that team in free agency (when he becomes a free agent, his current team can offer him more years and more money than rival suitors).

As a result of those earlier rumors, it didn’t come as a major surprise when a September report indicated Oladipo was “looking to move on” from Indiana or when a second report confirmed that he’s a candidate to be dealt this offseason. The 28-year-old has since attempted to downplay that chatter, but at this point it would be a bit surprising if Oladipo remains with the Pacers through 2020/21 and then signs a long-term deal with the franchise.

Throughout the process, the Pacers have stated that retaining Oladipo is a priority and have shown signals that they’ll do all they can to make it happen. They were even willing to pay him the remainder of his 2019/20 salary when he initially planned on opting out of the summer restart to focus on his health, despite the fact that he’d received medical clearance from doctors.

But if Indiana knows Oladipo plans to leave in free agency in 2021, it’s in the organization’s best interests to see what it can get for him before then rather to resign itself to losing him for nothing. The Pacers’ willingness to take that route with Paul George was the reason the team landed Oladipo (and fellow All-Star Domantas Sabonis) in the first place.

The challenge for the Pacers if they explore the trade market for an Oladipo deal will be finding a trade partner willing to give up a package that reflects the guard’s pre-injury value. Since Oladipo returned from his torn quad tendon in January, he hasn’t quite looked like the same player — in 19 games this season, he averaged just 14.5 PPG on .394/.317/.814 shooting.

Questions surrounding Oladipo’s health and production going forward will complicate any trade talks, especially if suitors believe they’ll have a shot to sign him outright in free agency a year from now. As such, an offseason trade definitely isn’t a sure thing.

In fact, sticking with Oladipo and hoping he looks like his old self to start next season may end up being Indiana’s best strategy. If Oladipo alleviates his health concerns in the first half, the Pacers could potentially extract more value for him at the trade deadline than they could this offseason — especially if multiple contenders view him as a missing piece for the stretch run.

2. Will the Pacers break up the Domantas Sabonis/Myles Turner frontcourt?

Since acquiring Sabonis in 2017, the Pacers have stubbornly insisted that he and Turner are capable of sharing the frontcourt in Indiana. They’re not necessarily wrong, but after three years of experimentation, it seems obvious that – despite some modest success – the two big men don’t exactly fit together seamlessly.

Two developments during the 2019/20 season may help steer the Pacers toward the idea of trading Turner.

The first was Sabonis’ emergence as an All-Star caliber player. He enjoyed a breakout year, averaging 18.5 PPG, 12.4 RPG, and 5.0 APG on 54.0% shooting in 62 games (34.8 MPG) and was badly missed during the restart when he was sidelined by a foot injury. He was perhaps Indiana’s best player in ’19/20 and is about to begin a team-friendly four-year, $75MM deal. It makes sense for the Pacers to keep him.

The second development was the emergence of T.J. Warren as one of the NBA’s most impressive scorers this summer. Warren’s numbers during the seeding games (31.0 PPG) almost definitely aren’t sustainable, but the fact that he enjoyed his best stretch of the season while serving as the team’s de facto power forward was eye-opening. He might not have been in position to produce like that Walt Disney World if both Sabonis and Turner had been healthy and in the starting lineup.

Turner is one of the NBA’s best shot-blockers and has knocked down 35.9% of his three-pointers over the last four seasons. He’s just 24 years old and he still has three years and $54MM left on his contract. That’s a very fair price for a two-way center entering his prime. He’d be a tremendous trade chip if Indiana makes him available — I wouldn’t even be shocked if the Pacers get a stronger offer for him than for Oladipo.

Cashing in Turner for 50 cents on the dollar because of the positional overlap with Sabonis would be a mistake, but there’s no indication the Pacers will make such a deal. If they do move Turner, they’ll do so with an eye toward acquiring an impact player who better suits their roster. I’ll be very interested to see if they can find that sort of trade this fall.

3. Who will the Pacers hire as their head coach?

Nate McMillan‘s ouster in Indiana this summer came as a bit of a surprise, since the veteran head coach had led the Pacers to a top-four seed in the East despite a handful of injury issues this season. Two key factors played a role in the front office’s decision — McMillan’s playoff record and his offensive style.

The Pacers are reportedly seeking a head coach who can modernize the club’s offense and get the team over the hump in the postseason after McMillan lost 16 of 19 playoff contests during his four-year tenure.

President of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard and the front office know they’ll have to hit a home run after parting ways with a popular head coach who had outperformed expectations during the regular season. All indications are that the organization is doing a ton of homework in an effort to make the right hire, having reportedly spoken to more than 20 candidates so far during the search process.

Indiana’s pool of contenders ranges from experienced former head coaches such as Mike D’Antoni, Mike Brown, and Dave Joerger to up-and-coming assistants like Darvin Ham, Ime Udoka, and David Vanterpool to a potential first-timer like Chauncey Billups.

Although McMillan’s dismissal wasn’t entirely expected, the Pacers generally don’t have a quick trigger finger when it comes to their head coaches — the team’s four most recent coaches have each served for four or more years. This is also the first time since his 2017 promotion that Pritchard will be responsible for a head coaching hire, so he’ll be looking for someone who can lead the franchise for years to come. It will be fascinating to see which direction the club goes.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Odds For 2020/21

October 13th, 2020 at 1:06pm CST by Luke Adams

The Heat lost just three games during the first three rounds against their playoff opponents in the East en route to an NBA Finals appearance this year, eliminating three of the top four seeds in the conference in the process. However, Miami’s impressive postseason run hasn’t made the team the favorite to come out of the East in 2021, according to oddsmakers.

At BetOnline.ag, the Heat are listed at +450 to win the Eastern Conference in ’21, meaning you’d win $450 on a $100 wager should Miami repeat as conference champs. The Bucks (+375), Celtics (+425), and Nets (+425) are currently considered more likely to represent the East in next year’s NBA Finals.

The rest of the odds to win the East next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:

  • Raptors: +750
  • Sixers: +1200
  • Bulls: +3300
  • Hawks: +3300
  • Pacers: +3300
  • Wizards: +3300
  • Magic: +10000
  • Cavaliers: +12500
  • Knicks: +12500
  • Pistons: +12500
  • Hornets: +17500

It’s obviously way too early to forecast the outcome of the 2020/21 season with any confidence. The draft and free agency are still to come, and we don’t know yet which teams will make major splashes on the trade market. If Victor Oladipo is dealt from Indiana to another Eastern team, for example, it could significantly change the conference’s outlook for next season.

Still, anticipated roster moves are at least somewhat baked into BetOnline’s current odds — if the Pacers had a ton of cap room to use this offseason and Oladipo and Myles Turner weren’t viewed as potential trade candidates, it’s a safe bet that they wouldn’t be listed alongside lottery teams Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington on the list above.

So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the East for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.

Should the Bucks be considered the favorites to win the East? Should the Heat be listed higher than fourth among Eastern teams? Are the Nets or other teams being overvalued? Are the Pacers or other teams being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the East next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Eastern Conference in 2020/21!

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Checking In On NBA’s Active Head Coaching Searches

October 12th, 2020 at 4:58pm CST by Luke Adams

It has been a busy year on the NBA’s head coaching carousel, with four teams having hired new coaches since the hiatus originally began in March and five more clubs still in the market for a new coach.

In the space below, we’re checking in on where those five active searches stand and passing along what we know so far about the most likely candidates for those openings.

While this post is just meant to provide a snapshot of where things stand as of October 12, you can continue to follow the NBA’s coaching carousel in the coming weeks via our tracker.

Let’s dive in…

Houston Rockets

We just passed along an update on the Rockets’ search earlier today. It sounds like the team’s interview process currently includes seven candidates, several of whom have already spoken to the team: Tyronn Lue, Jeff Van Gundy, Kenny Atkinson, Stephen Silas, Wes Unseld Jr., David Vanterpool, and John Lucas.

Although assistant coaches Sam Cassell and Chris Finch have also been linked to the job, it doesn’t sound as if they’ve interviewed for it. For now, the seven candidates listed above appear to make up Houston’s pool of contenders, though it’s possible the team eventually casts a wider net.

Lue and Van Gundy were two of the first candidates connected to the position even before Mike D’Antoni parted ways with the team, and general manager Daryl Morey was reportedly interested in JVG a few years ago, when the Rockets ultimately went with D’Antoni. I’d probably view Lue and Van Gundy as the favorites, but if salary becomes an issue at all, perhaps the club will instead opt for a potential first-timer such as Silas, Unseld, or Vanterpool.

Indiana Pacers

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst previously reported that the Pacers had talked to over 20 candidates about their head coaching job. It’s not clear if all 20+ of those candidates had formal interviews with Indiana or if some of those conversations were more casual in nature, but it’s clear the team is being thorough as it seeks a replacement for Nate McMillan.

Based on a report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski earlier this month, it sounds as if the Pacers have gotten serious about the interview process within the last two weeks. Dave Joerger and Darvin Ham were reportedly among the candidates to emerge during that time, though it’s unclear how aggressive Indiana has been in narrowing down its list of finalists. Joerger and Ham may have plenty of company in that group of “finalists.”

Chris Finch and Chauncey Billups are reportedly among the other candidates to meet with the Pacers in the last couple weeks, and Scott Agness of VigilantSports.com tweeted on Sunday night that the team will have an opportunity to meet with Heat assistants Dan Craig and Chris Quinn now that the Finals are over. The full list of candidates linked to the Pacers’ job can be found within our tracker.

Los Angeles Clippers

There hasn’t been a ton of chatter about the Clippers’ opening since Doc Rivers‘ surprising departure two weeks ago. His lead assistant, Tyronn Lue, was identified as the early frontrunner, but those reports came with the caveat that the Clippers do intend to conduct a full-fledged search.

Jeff Van Gundy, Mike Brown, Darvin Ham, and Wes Unseld Jr. have been mentioned as possible candidates for L.A. With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George only a year away from free agency and the Clippers in championship-or-bust mode, the club will spare no expense on its new head coach, so it will be fascinating to see which direction Steve Ballmer and Lawrence Frank will go.

Frank is coming off an Executive of the Year win and hasn’t had a chance to pick his own head coach yet during his tenure with the Clippers (Rivers’ stint predated Frank’s arrival in L.A.). In theory, he should have some leeway to take a risk and go off the board with an unconventional Steve Nash-esque hire if he feels confident that’s the best path to take. But with such lofty expectations facing the Clippers in 2020/21, Frank will want to be absolutely sure he gets this hire right.

New Orleans Pelicans

Back when the Pelicans dismissed Alvin Gentry in August, one team (the Knicks) had already completed a coaching search and only one other (the Bulls) had a search in progress. Since then, the Bulls have finalized a hire, six more teams have parted ways with their head coaches, and two of those six teams (Brooklyn and Philadelphia) have made new hires of their own.

In other words, the Pelicans appear very willing to take their time with this process.

The lack of reports about the New Orleans job is somewhat surprising. Jason Kidd, Kenny Atkinson, and Jacque Vaughn were cited as possible candidates around the time of Gentry’s firing, but there haven’t been any real updates on them in recent weeks. Mike D’Antoni was said to be a dark-horse candidate before he left Houston, and that rumor popped up again when the Rockets parted ways with him, but it’s been quiet on that front as of late.

There are two scenarios I find most plausible here. One is that Tyronn Lue, who worked under Pelicans executive VP of basketball operations David Griffin in Cleveland, is New Orleans’ top choice and the team is waiting for him to go through the process with the Rockets and Clippers and make a decision.

The other viable scenario? Maybe the Pelicans are just playing things very close to the vest as they consider their options and will surprise us at some point with their decision.

Oklahoma City Thunder

If the silence around the Pelicans’ coaching job has been loud, the silence surrounding the Thunder’s vacancy has been deafening.

It has now been over a month since Oklahoma City and Donovan parted ways, and we’ve essentially heard nothing concrete since then about potential replacements. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst did name David Vanterpool, Adrian Griffin, and Will Hardy as possible candidates at one point, but that sounded like it could’ve just as easily been informed speculation rather than anything solid.

Given the reported motivation for Donovan’s departure, it seems like a safe bet that the Thunder will be looking to hire an up-and-coming coach who doesn’t mind enduring a rebuild and who can grow and develop along with the team’s young core. Given the lack of info coming out of Oklahoma City on the search so far, it’s unclear if the team is seriously clamping down on any leaks or if the search process just hasn’t gotten serious yet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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