Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: What Will Be The Outcome Of The Finals?

October 11th, 2020 at 3:36pm CST by JD Shaw

When the Lakers and Heat tipped off Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday, several fans and league observers were prepared to crown the Lakers with their 17th championship in franchise history. Fast forward to today, and the Heat are now one win away from being one win away.

Miami will try to tie the series in Game 6 on Sunday night, with a potential Game 7 hanging in the balance on Tuesday. It’s a challenging feat for a club likely to be missing Goran Dragic (listed doubtful with a plantar fascia tear), but the Heat have embraced the identity of a team known for overcoming obstacles. They were propelled by Jimmy Butler in Game 5, who finished with an astounding 35 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists and five steals in over 47 minutes of action.

“Nothing,” Butler said of what he had left once the game ended, as relayed by Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.“I left it all out there on the floor along with my guys, and that’s how we’re going to have to play from here on out. Like I always say, it’s win or win for us. But this is the position that we’re in. We like it this way. We got two more in a row to get.”

For the Lakers, their fate could rest on the level of production they receive from players outside of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. If the supporting cast goes down, the team could very well go down with it. Rajon Rondo, Alex Caruso and Markieff Morris have all shown signs of promise off the bench this series, but no game has been more important than this.

Davis is listed as probable with a right heel contusion, while Miami’s Bam Adebayo has continued to play through a neck strain. Other players remain mentally and physically fatigued, but the NBA’s longest season to date will ultimately come to a close on Sunday or Tuesday.

What do you think? What will be the outcome of the NBA Finals? Do the Heat have enough left in the tank to force a Game 7 and potentially come back from a 3-1 deficit, or will the Lakers take control and finish the series in Game 6 or Game 7? Vote in our poll, then take to the comments section below!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Community Shootaround: Heat Free Agents

October 10th, 2020 at 12:28pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Heat surprised virtually everyone but themselves by reaching the Finals. And with two more victories, they’ll complete their Cinderella run.

Miami is positioned to become a powerhouse for years to come if it makes the right moves. Jimmy Butler has not only cemented his status as a star player during the restart but has now established himself as a franchise player. Tyler Herro‘s performances have many NBA executives kicking themselves for passing him up in last season’s draft. He’s, of course, in the early stages of his rookie deal.

However, a big chunk of their roster is filled with players can become free agents this offseason or in 2021. Team president Pat Riley has spent the last couple of years making moves to open up plenty of salary cap room for top-level free agents next season, with Giannis Antetokounmpo at the top of the wish list.

The play of a couple of veterans during the playoff run could complicate the process, particularly Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder, both of whom will be unrestricted free agents this fall. Dragic has only played 15 minutes during the Finals due to a foot injury but the Heat would have been eliminated in the earlier rounds if not for his steady playmaking.

Dragic has averaged 19.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 4.6 APG during the postseason. He set the tone for the series against Milwaukee and Boston, scoring 50 points against the Bucks in the first two games of that series and 54 against the Celtics when Miami jumped to a 2-0 lead.

Crowder was kind of an afterthought in the February trade with Memphis that brought Andre Iguodala to the Heat. Instead, he’s proven more valuable than Iguodala, averaging 12.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG in 31.6 MPG while making 34.6% of his 3s. He’s an even bigger force on the defensive end, often assigned to the opponent’s top scorer. He can switch onto much bigger frontcourt players and still hold his own.

Dragic is 34 and Crowder is 30 and this could be their last shot at landing lucrative, multi-year deals. While the Heat’s balance sheet could allow Riley to reward them in free agency, there are other considerations. Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn can become restricted free agents next summer and either one could receive a lucrative offer sheet, given their youth and production.

There’s also the overall concerns about how much the cap and luxury tax threshold could drop due to the loss of revenue during the pandemic.

That leads us to our question of the day: If Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder seek multi-year deals in free agency, should the Heat still try to re-sign them or should they continue to preserve cap space for next offseason? If they decide to sign one but not the other, which player should they pursue?

Please weigh in on this topic in the comments section. We look forward to your input.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Utah Jazz

October 9th, 2020 at 1:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Utah Jazz.

Salary Cap Outlook

The only way the Jazz could realistically create cap space this offseason without cost-cutting roster moves would be if Mike Conley opts out of his $34.5MM salary for 2020/21. That won’t happen, so it’s a safe bet that Utah will operate as an over-the-cap club.

The Jazz’ ability to use their full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) may hinge on how they handle Jordan Clarkson‘s free agency, since a new deal for Clarkson would move team salary much closer to the tax. In that scenario, they may be limited to the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Jazz can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Mike Conley, early termination option: $34,502,132

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Georges Niang ($1,783,557)
Rayjon Tucker ($1,517,981)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $340K.
Juwan Morgan ($1,517,981)
Miye Oni ($1,517,981)
Nigel Williams-Goss ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Jarrell Brantley (expiring)
Justin Wright-Foreman (expiring)

Free Agents:

Jordan Clarkson (Bird)
Emmanuel Mudiay (Non-Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 23 overall pick

Second Round:

None

The Jazz could have picked as high as No. 21 in the first round based on their record, which put them in a tie with Houston and Oklahoma City. However, Utah lost the three-way tiebreaker and ended up at No. 23 instead.

Utah’s second-round pick (No. 51) was originally traded to Cleveland during the 2018/19 season for Kyle Korver. It changed hands three more times in subsequent deals, ultimately ending up with Golden State.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Donovan Mitchell sign a contract extension this offseason?

Both Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will be eligible to sign new contracts this offseason, but they aren’t necessarily equally likely to get extensions.

Mitchell’s case is the simpler one. Having been drafted in the 2017 lottery, he’s entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, making him eligible for a rookie scale extension. If he signs a new contract, it would go into effect during the 2021/22 season and could have a starting salary worth up to 25% of that year’s cap — or even 30% of the cap, if he makes an All-NBA team next season.

It seems almost certain that Utah will offer Mitchell a maximum-salary deal sooner rather than later. In the unlikely event that the Jazz were still on the fence about that decision, Mitchell’s performance in seven playoff games this season certainly helped seal the deal — he couldn’t quite lead them to a series win, but averaged 36.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 4.9 APG with a .529/.516/.948 shooting line.

While negotiations between the two sides should be pretty simple, they’ll need to agree on possible Rose Rule language in an extension. That shouldn’t be too much of a challenge, especially if they use last year’s Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray rookie scale extensions as points of comparison.

The language in Simmons’ agreement with Philadelphia boosted his starting salary to 28% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA nod, and that figure would have increased to 30% if he made the First Team. The language in Murray’s deal with Denver – which included a salary at 26% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA spot – was similar, albeit slightly more team-friendly.

The Jazz and Mitchell should be able to work out something in that same neighborhood, rewarding him with a slightly more lucrative long-term contract if he makes the leap to become an All-NBA player in 2020/21.

2. Will Rudy Gobert sign a new extension of his own this offseason?

Gobert’s extension eligibility will create a trickier situation for the Jazz. At age 28, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year is four years older than Mitchell and it’s unclear whether how much room his game still has to grow, so the club will have to keep that in mind as it considers a new long-term investment.

Mitchell’s next deal will also be a little more cost-controlled than Gobert’s could be. Even with an All-NBA berth next season, Mitchell can’t sign a rookie scale extension exceeding 30% of the cap. Due to Gobert’s All-NBA nods and DPOY awards, he has qualified for a veteran extension that can be worth up to 35% of the cap in 2021/22.

That may not seem like a substantial difference, but it adds up over the course of four or five years. If we assume the cap will be $115MM in 2021/22, an extension starting at 35% of the cap would be worth $40.25MM in year one and $233.45MM over five seasons. A 30% deal would start at $34.5MM and would be worth $200.1MM over five years.

Now, just because Gobert has qualified for a super-max extension doesn’t mean that the Jazz have to offer him one. Standard veteran extension rules would still allow Utah to offer Gobert up to $142.6MM on a four-year extension this offseason and that might be a more appropriate price for a player who is elite defensively but will never be nearly as dangerous on the offensive end.

Still, there are questions that must be addressed here. After two consecutive first-round playoff exits, are the Jazz still all-in on the Gobert/Mitchell duo? Because signing both players to lucrative long-term extensions will eat up a huge portion of the franchise’s cap room for years to come.

From Gobert’s perspective, would an extension offer below the super-max appeal to him? If he doesn’t get a super-max offer, perhaps he’d rather just wait for free agency in 2021 to sign a new deal, giving himself the chance to see what other opportunities are out there. We’ve seen some instances in the past where a team’s unwillingness to put a super-max on the table ultimately led to the player’s exit (ie. Jimmy Butler in Chicago or Kemba Walker in Charlotte).

And while it seemed by the end of Utah’s run in Orlando that any issues were long behind them, it’s worth noting that we’re only six months removed from reports about Mitchell and Gobert working on repairing their relationship after their positive coronavirus tests left them upset at one another. Are they ready to sign up for another five years of playing alongside one another?

I don’t expect the Jazz to seriously consider the idea of trading Gobert this fall. But it will be worth keeping a close eye on extension talks between the two sides — if they don’t work something out, the standout center will be on track to join a star-studded 2021 free agent class, with plenty of teams around the NBA expected to have cap room available.

3. Will the Jazz re-sign Jordan Clarkson?

Barring a shocking opt-out from Mike Conley, Clarkson will be the only key member of the Jazz rotation whose contract is expiring this offseason. His free agency creates a potential dilemma for the franchise.

Acquired last December in a trade with Cleveland, Clarkson immediately added some scoring punch to Utah’s second unit, enjoying one of the best runs of his career in 42 games with the Jazz. He posted 15.6 PPG on .462/.366/.785 shooting during that time, and his numbers didn’t fall off in the postseason either — he scored 16.7 PPG on .464/.347/1.000 shooting in seven playoff contests vs. Denver.

Clarkson’s ability to create his own shot and put the ball in the basket was a welcome addition to a Jazz roster that’s not exactly loaded with scorers, especially when Bojan Bogdanovic‘s season ended early due to wrist surgery. But he’s a somewhat one-dimensional player who’s not exactly an elite defender.

Utah president of basketball operations Dennis Lindsey spoke last month about prioritizing defensive-minded players this offseason. While Clarkson’s offense gave the team a boost, would his rotation spot be better utilized by a wing player who’s more capable of slowing down opposing scorers? And if Clarkson isn’t re-signed, will the Jazz have the cap flexibility to acquire a quality player who fits that bill?

If we assume Conley opts in and the Jazz keep their first-round pick while jettisoning their players on non-guaranteed contracts (except for Georges Niang), the team would be on the hook for about $116.4MM for 10 players. Re-signing Clarkson to a deal in the mid-level range would push that figure above $125MM. And if we assume the tax line will once again be $132.6MM, that doesn’t leave enough room below the tax for Utah to use its full mid-level exception.

Using the full MLE without going into the tax would be an option if the team lets Clarkson walk or cuts costs elsewhere, but it remains to be seen if that exception will be enough to acquire an impact rotation player.

A year ago, Seth Curry, Derrick Rose, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Tyus Jones were the players who received most or all of the non-taxpayer MLE. The Jazz may have to determine whether a player in that tier would be a better option than Clarkson — or if a leaguewide reluctance to spend might result in more intriguing options being available.

Given how well Clarkson fit in Utah this past season, I’d be a little surprised if the team simply lets him go. Perhaps a best-case scenario for the Jazz would be re-signing Clarkson at a fair price and then using a portion of the MLE to sign a free agent who lacks a strong track record but has some defensive upside (such as Derrick Jones). Trading for a wing is another possibility, though the Jazz aren’t loaded with a ton of expendable trade assets.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

October 8th, 2020 at 1:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

The Sixers will enter the 2020 offseason with one of the NBA’s most expensive rosters — the club has more than $142MM committed to just nine players so far in 2020/21, eliminating the possibility of cap room and making Philadelphia a near-lock to be a taxpayer.

Barring major cost-cutting moves, the 76ers would have the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM) at their disposal in free agency.

Our full salary cap preview for the Sixers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Furkan Korkmaz ($1,762,796)
Norvel Pelle ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Marial Shayok (expires in 2021)

Free Agents:

Alec Burks (Non-Bird)
Glenn Robinson III (Non-Bird)
Raul Neto (Non-Bird)
Kyle O’Quinn (Non-Bird)
Ryan Broekhoff (N/A)
- Note: Broekhoff won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 21 overall pick

Second Round:

No. 34 overall pick
No. 36 overall pick
No. 49 overall pick
No. 58 overall pick

As has often been the case over the last few years, the Sixers have no shortage of draft picks available.

Philadelphia gave up its own 2020 first-rounder (No. 19) to acquire Tobias Harris from the Clippers in 2019, but the club has the Thunder’s first-round pick at No. 21 as a result of a Jerami Grant trade back in 2016. That selection, which had been top-20 protected, was sent to Orlando in 2017 for the rights to draft Anzejs Pasecniks before being traded back to Philadelphia in 2019 for Markelle Fultz.

In the second round, the Sixers have their own pick at No. 49, as well as the Hawks’, Knicks’, and Lakers’ selections.

Philadelphia got Atlanta’s pick (No. 34) when the Hawks moved up for Bruno Fernando in last year’s draft; the Knicks pick at No. 36 was acquired back in 2015 when New York traded for Willy Hernangomez‘s draft rights; and the Lakers’ pick (No. 58) was originally dealt to Orlando before being flipped to the Sixers at the 2020 deadline for James Ennis.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will the decision-making structure look like going forward?

Following a disappointing season, the Sixers wasted no time in firing head coach Brett Brown once they were eliminated from the playoffs. Around that same time, reports suggested that the team also planned to make some changes to its front office personnel and structure.

Since the departure of former head of basketball operations Bryan Colangelo in 2018, the 76ers’ front office has taken a collaborative approach to decision-making, but general manager Elton Brand said at season’s end that he and the club felt as if “the collaboration days didn’t work.”

The stage seemed set for the Sixers to either hire a president of basketball operations a level above Brand or to empower Brand by giving him the final say on personnel decisions. Instead, there was little clarity on Philadelphia’s front office plan for several weeks while the team was searching for its new head coach.

Identifying and hiring Brown’s replacement was supposed to be Brand’s responsibility, but team ownership was said to be heavily involved in the process. When the Sixers ultimately hired Doc Rivers, Jason Dumas of KRON4 News reported that team ownership had initially wanted Mike D’Antoni while Brand preferred Tyronn Lue — when Rivers became available, he represented a candidate that both sides agreed upon.

The hiring of Rivers further muddies the waters of the Sixers’ front office hierarchy. Rivers was formerly the Clippers’ president of basketball operations, and when he was asked in his introductory presser with the Sixers about personnel decisions, he said that he and Brand will “work together.” That sounds a lot like the “collaborative” approach that Brand said in August wasn’t working for the franchise.

Having too many cooks in the kitchen on major roster decisions could complicate trade talks and create other problems for the Sixers in the future. It would be in the organization’s best interests to have co-owners Josh Harris and David Blitzer clearly define the front office hierarchy to avoid any confusion going forward, since significant roster decisions are on the horizon.

It sounds like the team is working toward that goal, having reportedly started interviewing candidates for at least one executive role below Brand.

2. How invested are the Sixers in the Ben Simmons/Joel Embiid duo?

Shortly after the 76ers’ 2019/20 season came to an end, Brand declared that the team had no intention of trading either Simmons or Embiid. The plan, according to Brand, is to put together a roster that will better complement those two stars.

That approach comes as no surprise. When NBA teams bottom out like Philadelphia did during their infamous “Process,” the goal is to land a superstar-caliber player who can lead the franchise back to contention. Simmons and Embiid have their flaws, but they fit that criteria — they each have All-NBA berths under their belts and rank among the NBA’s best players at their respective positions. They’re also just 24 and 26 years old, respectively, so they have room to continue improving.

The problem, of course, is that their offensive styles don’t fit together as naturally as you’d like from your two stars. Simmons is a monster in transition, but still has little to no range on his jump shot, creating floor-spacing issues that clog the lane for Embiid, arguably the NBA’s best low-post scorer.

The duo’s mismatched nature has had some factions of NBA fans – in Philadelphia and elsewhere – clamoring for a trade involving one of the two players, since it’d be fascinating to see what they could do with their own teams built around their strengths.

For now though, the 76ers’ plan is to see if Rivers is capable of unlocking the potential of the Simmons/Embiid pairing. After all, it was just a puzzle that Brown was incapable of solving, then trading either player would be premature and short-sighted.

Still, while a Simmons or Embiid trade may not be in the cards this offseason, the Sixers need to start thinking about how long they’re committed to trying to make the marriage work. Even after the 2020/21 season, Embiid will have two more years on his contract and Simmons will be locked up for four seasons. Philadelphia could extract a substantial return for either player and could target packages headlined by players who would better suit their roster.

3. Can the Sixers find a favorable deal involving Tobias Harris or Al Horford?

If Simmons and Embiid are off the table, that means the Sixers’ best chance to shake up their roster this fall will involve moving one of their two other big-money contracts. Those deals belong to Harris, who still has four years and $147MM left, and to Horford, who has three years and $81MM remaining, though his final season is just partially guaranteed.

Neither of those players represents a positive asset right now. Harris remains a solid contributor, but with an annual salary of nearly $37MM over the next four years, he’s being paid as if he can be a top-two player on a title contender, which overstates his value.

As for Horford, he didn’t end up being a great fit alongside Embiid and it’s probably safe to say he’s past prime at age 34. His production won’t necessarily fall off a cliff, but his .450 FG% in his first season as a Sixer represented a career low, and his once-elite defensive skills will likely continue to fade as he enters his mid-30s and loses a step.

Although their trade value will be hurt by their exorbitant salaries, Harris and Horford could appeal to a team looking to get rid of an oversized contract of its own. That’s why Chris Paul has so frequently been cited as a potential trade target for Philadelphia.

Paul only has two years left on his contract, but his per-year salary during that time (approximately $42.8MM) is even higher than Harris’ or Horford’s. His play-making and shot-making abilities would also be a nice fit on a Sixers roster that could use a little help on both fronts.

Philadelphia native Kyle Lowry is also the sort of player the Sixers would presumably love to target. His game is similar to Paul’s and he’s even more affordable (one year at $30.5MM), though the Raptors presumably won’t be nearly as motivated to move him as the Thunder would be to find a taker for Paul.

Buddy Hield‘s is another name that has popped up frequently in 76ers-related trade speculation. He’s reportedly not thrilled with his situation in Sacramento and has liked social media posts linking him to Philadelphia. If the Sixers are targeting outside shooting, it’d be hard to do much better than Hield, who has made 41.1% of 6.7 three-point attempts per game since entering the league in 2016. His contract, worth $86MM over four years, plus incentives, isn’t necessarily a bargain, but it’s more team-friendly than Horford’s or Harris’.

Of those two Sixers contracts, Horford’s – which is shorter-term and less expensive than Harris’ – may be easier to move. Trading Horford rather than Harris probably also makes more sense for the Sixers from an on-court perspective, since it’s easier to find reliable backup centers on the cheap than it is to find productive wings.

Still, even if the 76ers’ top target is a mid-30s veteran with an oversized contract like Paul, it will take more than Horford to get a deal done. To acquire any sort of starting-caliber player, Philadelphia will have to be prepared to dip into its pool of future draft picks.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Non-Bird Free Agents Who May Be Difficult To Re-Sign

October 7th, 2020 at 12:22pm CST by Luke Adams

Every player who finishes a season as a member of an NBA roster gets some form of Bird rights as a free agent, allowing his team to go over the cap to re-sign him. However, a player who spent just one year with his club typically only has Non-Bird rights, which are the weakest form of Bird rights, as their oxymoronic name suggests.

With the Non-Bird exception, a team can re-sign a player for up to four years and give him a raise, but that raise has to be a modest one. Non-Bird rights allow for a starting salary worth up to 120% of the player’s previous salary or 120% of the minimum salary, whichever is greater.

In other words, a Non-Bird free agent who earned $5MM can only get a starting salary worth up to $6MM on his new deal unless his team uses cap room or another exception (such as the mid-level) to bring him back.

This cap restriction will apply specifically to a handful of players around the NBA who may be in line for raises this summer. Because these players will be Non-Bird free agents, it may be a challenge for their teams to re-sign them without cap room or an exception like the bi-annual or mid-level.

Let’s take a closer look at five players who will fall into this category this offseason…

Markieff Morris, F, Lakers
Dwight Howard, C, Lakers

During their run to the NBA Finals, the Lakers have matched up with talented opposing centers such as Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, and Bam Adebayo, while also facing a Rockets team that doesn’t use a traditional center. Anthony Davis has, of course, been the most important factor in the Lakers winning those frontcourt battles, but Morris and Howard have played major roles as well, proving their value as role players on a championship-caliber team.

Morris signed a $1.75MM contract during the season, while Howard’s one-year deal is worth the veteran’s minimum, so neither player can sign for more than 120% of the minimum if the over-the-cap Lakers hope to use their Non-Bird rights. If the cap doesn’t increase, that would mean a max of $2.8MM for Morris and $3.08MM for Howard.

My assumption is that both players would be able to do better than that on the open market. So if they’re not willing to accept team-friendly discounts to remain in Los Angeles, the Lakers may have to dip into their mid-level exception (projected to be worth $9.26MM) to try to re-sign one or both players.

Carmelo Anthony, F, Trail Blazers

Anthony’s NBA career appeared to be on the verge of ending before he worked out a minimum-salary deal with Portland. He outperformed that modest contract, with 15.4 PPG and 6.3 RPG on .430/.385/.845 shooting in 58 games (all starts) for the Trail Blazers in 2019/20.

Like Howard, Anthony would be limited to a ’20/21 salary of $3.08MM via his Non-Bird rights. If the Blazers need to go higher than that to retain him, they’ll have to repeat a move they used last summer, when they re-signed Non-Bird free agent Rodney Hood with their taxpayer mid-level exception in order to give him a raise.

Jeff Green, F, Rockets

Green was underwhelming during his brief stint with Utah early in the 2019/20 season, but he thrived in Houston, averaging 12.2 PPG on .564/.354/.857 shooting in 18 games (22.6 MPG) as part of the club’s micro-ball lineup. He was nearly as good in the postseason, with 11.6 PPG on .495/.426/.824 shooting in an increased role (28.6 MPG).

Green hasn’t signed a contract worth more than the minimum since 2016, so it’s possible that’s all it will take for Houston or another team to sign him this fall. That’d be a best-case scenario for the Rockets, given how well he fit in their system down the stretch — topping any rival offer exceeding $3.08MM would mean dipping into the mid-level or bi-annual.

Reggie Jackson, G, Clippers

Like most players on the buyout market, Jackson signed a minimum-salary contract with the Clippers to finish out the season, meaning the team will be limited to an offer starting at about $2.8MM.

Jackson was pretty good for the Clippers in 17 regular season games, knocking down 41.3% of his three-point attempts and chipping in 9.5 PPG and 3.2 APG. But he fell out of the rotation in the second round of the playoffs vs. Denver, and the Clippers will likely be looking to upgrade the point guard position this fall. A reunion probably doesn’t make sense for either side, especially if Jackson can get offers exceeding the Non-Bird limit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Knicks’ Offseason Trade Options

October 6th, 2020 at 5:01pm CST by Luke Adams

With only about $56MM in guaranteed salary on their books for next season, the Knicks have the flexibility necessary to create cap room and make a run at one or more top free agents. However, the team also feels as if it’s well-positioned to trade for an impact player, as an April report indicated.

This year’s free agent class isn’t particularly star-heavy, so it’s possible that greasing the wheels for a blockbuster trade may be a better use of the Knicks’ cap space. Plus, New York has accumulated seven first-round picks in the next four drafts and has a roster loaded with former lottery selections, so the team could put together an appealing package for the right player.

In a report this week, Marc Berman of The New York Post indicated that Pacers guard Victor Oladipo could be that player. Knicks general manager Scott Perry, who drafted Oladipo when he was a member of the Magic front office in 2013, “still is enamored” with him, according to Berman, and there have been rumblings that the All-Star may not be fully committed to Indiana for the long term.

Thunder guard Chris Paul, a former CAA client of new Knicks president of basketball operations Leon Rose, is another potential trade target for the franchise.

Writing today about that possibility in a separate story for The New York Post, Berman suggests that Oklahoma City would likely seek a first-round pick and a young prospect on his rookie contract in return for Paul. According to Berman, the Thunder would probably target Kevin Knox in a deal with New York, while the Knicks would rather give up Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr.

Oladipo and Paul aren’t the only potential trade candidates who could catch the Knicks’ eye this offseason, but they’re probably two of the only All-Stars who will realistically be available. Within his initial article on Oladipo, Berman names three more trade targets who would intrigue the Knicks, but it’s hard to imagine any of them (Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Paul George) actually changing teams this fall.

Of course, even if Embiid, Towns, George, or another superstar becomes available, the cost to acquire them in a trade would be extremely high. On the other hand, there are certain factors that should keep the price tags of Oladipo (health; expiring contract) and Paul (age; exorbitant salary) in check, which may appeal to the Knicks — making a trade for one of those two players could help New York move back toward playoff contention without emptying the team’s treasure chest of assets.

In today’s Community Shootaround, we want to get your input on the Knicks’ offseason options.

Does Oladipo look like an appealing trade target for New York? How about Paul? Should the team wait for a star with fewer question marks to become available before looking to trade future first-round picks? Or should the Knicks altogether avoid trading multiple assets for one impact player, focusing instead – for now at least – on using their cap room to sign free agents or to keep adding draft picks by taking on unwanted contracts?

Head to the comment section to share your thoughts on the Knicks’ offseason plan!

Various Ways Warriors Could Use Trade Exception

October 5th, 2020 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The $17.2MM traded player exception held by the Warriors as a result of last year’s Andre Iguodala trade has become one of the most intriguing non-player assets to watch during the coming NBA offseason.

Trade exceptions allow NBA teams to take on a certain amount of salary without sending out any salary in return for matching purposes. While they typically expire after one year, the expiry dates for the Warriors’ TPE and the others created last July will be postponed until after the start of this year’s free agent period to make sure clubs still have a chance to use them. The start date for the 2020 free agent period remains up in the air, but appears likely to land sometime in late November.

Despite the extended deadline, the Warriors aren’t a lock to make use of their trade exception. Most TPEs ultimately go unused, and Golden State already projects to be a taxpaying team in 2020/21 — taking on additional salary will cost the team exponentially more in tax penalties.

Still, few NBA teams are more comfortable with a high payroll than the Warriors, and that exception represents one of the few paths the capped-out club has to improve its roster, so there has been plenty of speculation in recent months about how it could be used.

Much of that speculation has centered on the idea that the Warriors will try to acquire a single player whose salary is near that $17.2MM upper limit, but there are several other ways the team could theoretically look to utilize its TPE.

We’ll run through a few of those potential paths in the space below, so let’s dive right in…

Acquiring a single player

This is the simplest option for the Warriors and a potential trade partner. In this scenario, Golden State would likely send out a draft pick or two in exchange for a single player whose salary comes in below $17,285,185.

This category covers a wide range of possibilities. For instance, Golden State would be able to use the exception to accommodate a player like Evan Fournier, who is making $17.15MM next season. However, the team has no obligation to use as much of the TPE as possible, so it could just as easily be used to acquire a player earning $3MM or $4MM who might represent a better value.

Depending on the value and the cost of the incoming player, the Warriors may be willing to put one of their most valuable trade assets – this year’s No. 2 pick or next year’s top-three protected Timberwolves pick – on the table. But some veteran trade candidates won’t have nearly that high a price tag.

Acquiring multiple players

Unlike certain other salary cap exceptions – such as the disabled player exception – a trade exception can be used multiple times as long as there’s still money left on it. For instance, the Warriors’ $17MM+ TPE could be used to acquire a player earning $10MM and a second player earning $7MM.

There are countless examples of how this could work, but after using Fournier as our first example, let’s stick with the Magic — Golden State’s exception could theoretically be used to acquire, say, Terrence Ross ($13.5MM) and Khem Birch ($3MM). The Warriors could also use it in two separate trades.

Targeting multiple lower-cost players rather than one more expensive target could be a way for the Warriors to replenish their veteran depth.

Acquiring a bridge player

Yet another member of the Magic – Aaron Gordon – has frequently been cited as a potential trade target for the Warriors, but his 2020/21 salary ($18.14MM) isn’t quite small enough to fit into Golden State’s TPE. Because trade exceptions can’t be combined with player salaries, there’s no way for the Dubs to directly use their TPE to accommodate a Gordon deal.

However, there’s a workaround if the Warriors do want to target a player who makes a salary in that range — a “bridge” player.

Using the TPE, Golden State could theoretically acquire a player on an expiring contract in the $16-17MM range, such as Timberwolves forward James Johnson. From there, they could flip that player in a second trade to acquire someone making up to about $20MM, via normal salary-matching rules. Essentially, they’d be using the first player’s contract as a bridge to accommodate the second’s.

There are plenty of potential obstacles here. For one, it would mean working out two separate trades with two different teams — negotiating one deal is tricky enough, so adding the extra step might cost the Warriors an extra asset.

Additionally, if Golden State wants to turn around and flip a player it just acquired via trade, it can’t combine him with a second player for salary-matching purposes, which would limit the club’s options to some extent.

Still, if a player like Gordon or Myles Turner ($18MM) is high on the Warriors’ wish list, this route might be the most viable way of getting them to Golden State.

Acquiring a player via sign-and-trade

Although a trade exception can’t be used to sign a free agent outright, it can be used to accommodate a sign-and-trade, as long as certain criteria are met and the player’s first-year salary fits into the exception.

Unfortunately, this probably isn’t an option for the Warriors, since a team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade can’t have a team salary above the tax apron (approximately $138.9MM if the cap doesn’t increase) at any time during the league year. This restriction is why Golden State had to trade Iguodala in the first place last July to accommodate the D’Angelo Russell sign-and-trade.

The Warriors already have $142MM+ in guaranteed salaries on their books for 2020/21, so barring major cost-cutting moves, a sign-and-trade acquisition won’t be possible.

Claiming a player on waivers

A trade exception can also be used to claim a player off waivers, as long as his salary fits into the TPE. However, like the sign-and-trade concept, this may not be one of the Warriors’ more viable options.

If a team is waiving a player, it presumably means that team wasn’t able to trade him for anything of value. If that’s the case, Golden State is unlikely to want the player on the terms of his existing contract — he’ll likely pass through waivers and be available at a lower cost.

This is still a scenario worth keeping in the backs of our minds if a productive player hits waivers, but it seems like a long shot.

Completing a trade that allows the exception to be rolled over

A trade exception can essentially be “rolled over” if a team has an exception available but sends out salary as part of the deal anyway.

For example, if two teams swap a pair of players earning $15MM apiece and one team has a $15MM trade exception available, that club could use the exception to take on the incoming player and create a new exception using the outgoing player’s salary. That would reset the one-year clock to use the TPE.

This is a somewhat tricky concept, and in the Warriors’ case, it’s complicated further by the fact that the team has no contracts in the $17MM range — the only Golden State player earning between $5MM and $29.5MM in 2020/21 is Draymond Green ($22.24MM), who is unlikely to be dealt.

Still, there’s theoretically a way to make this work, especially if the Warriors’ trade partner has cap room. Here’s a hypothetical example: Let’s say the Hawks and Warriors work out a deal that sends Andrew Wiggins ($29.54MM) and a draft pick to Atlanta in exchange for Dewayne Dedmon ($13.33MM) and Kevin Huerter ($2.76MM).

The Hawks will have more than enough cap space available to accommodate the extra incoming salary, while the Warriors could fit Dedmon’s and Huerter’s contracts into their trade exception. As a result, Golden State could create a new trade exception worth Wiggins’ outgoing salary ($29.54MM) and would have a full year to use it.

I’m not sure either Atlanta or Golden State would be overly enthusiastic about that specific trade, but it serves as an example of how the Warriors could avoid losing the TPE while also avoiding tacking on a ton of extra money to their 2020/21 payroll. In this hypothetical scenario, they’d have even more flexibility with that new larger trade exception down the road, while also reducing their short-term team salary.

It will be difficult to find the right trade partner and the right combination of assets to make this scenario work. But last year’s Russell sign-and-trade was an example of the Warriors’ willingness to accumulate assets whenever and however they can in the hopes that they’ll be able to eventually maximize their value and fit — they knew Russell probably wouldn’t be a long-term fixture, but recognized getting him and trading him down the road was better than losing Kevin Durant for nothing. They’ll likely consider taking a similar approach with this trade exception if no other favorable options arise.

Contract information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Dallas Mavericks

October 2nd, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

If we assume that Tim Hardaway Jr. and Willie Cauley-Stein exercise their player options and account for the Mavericks’ first-round pick, the club will have nearly $112MM on its books before making any offseason moves. That would eliminate the possibility of cap room, but would give Dallas a good amount of breathing room below the tax threshold.

As a result, the Mavs will have the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) available this offseason. The bi-annual exception won’t be in play since Dallas used it a year ago to sign Boban Marjanovic.

Our full salary cap preview for the Mavericks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Tim Hardaway Jr., player option: $18,975,000
Willie Cauley-Stein, player option: $2,286,357

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

None

Two-Way Contracts:

Antonius Cleveland (expiring)
Josh Reaves (expiring)

Free Agents:

Courtney Lee (Bird)
J.J. Barea (Bird)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Non-Bird)
Trey Burke (N/A)
- Note: Burke won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 18 overall pick

Second Round:

No. 31 overall pick

The Mavericks have their own first-round pick at No. 18, but traded away their second-rounder (No. 48) at the 2017 trade deadline when they acquired Nerlens Noel from Philadelphia.

Fortunately, Dallas picked up another second-round pick in the 2020 draft, acquiring the Warriors’ second-rounder back in 2016 as part of an Andrew Bogut salary dump. That deal, which helped clear the cap space necessary for Golden State to sign Kevin Durant, wasn’t a popular one among rival teams at the time, but it’s paying off for the Mavs this year — the Warriors’ pick is at the very top of the second round.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. How will the Mavericks balance their short- and long-term outlook this offseason?

The 2019/20 season represented a breakout year for the Mavericks, who posted their best winning percentage (.573) since 2014/15 as Luka Doncic transformed into an MVP candidate and Kristaps Porzingis enjoyed a productive first year in Dallas.

After earning the No. 7 seed in the West and playing the Clippers tough in the first round, the Mavs will feel compelled to keep upgrading the roster in the hopes of taking another big step toward title contention in 2020/21. However, Dallas seems more likely to remain in something of a holding pattern during the 2020 offseason, since the team doesn’t have a ton of short-term flexibility and will want to maximize its spending ability in 2021.

A year from now, Tim Hardaway Jr.‘s $19MM salary will come off the books, as will Boban Marjanovic‘s more modest $3.5MM figure. Assuming there’s at least a small increase in the salary cap, the club will be well-positioned to create either a maximum-salary cap slot or something close to it. In other words, it probably doesn’t make sense to invest in multiyear deals for role players this offseason, since those deals would cut into the team’s ’21 cap space, compromising a potential opportunity to add an impact player.

That doesn’t mean Dallas has to stand pat in the coming months. Adding potential contributors on one-year deals is a viable option, and the club won’t hesitate to explore the trade market for upgrades. It’s even possible that the Mavericks could trade for a third impact player to complement Doncic and Porzingis without having to wait to clear cap room in 2021.

However, with multiple future first-round picks tied up due to previous trades – and without a ton of expendable young players who could be trade chips – it will probably be simpler for the Mavs to pursue that sort of impact player in free agency in 2021 rather than on the trade market.

The 2020 offseason will be an interesting challenge for Dallas. Following the team’s impressive showing in 2019/20, the Mavs’ front office won’t want to give its players the impression that it’s being inactive this fall, but the club will still want to prioritize building a long-term contender over pursuing short-term success in ’20/21.

2. How will the Mavericks use their mid-level exception?

The Mavericks won’t have cap room in 2020, but they also don’t appear to be in any danger of approaching or surpassing the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll be able to use their full $9.3MM mid-level exception.

Splitting that exception into multiple parts is one possibility. Dallas took that path in 2019/20, using most of the MLE to lock up Seth Curry and a small portion of it to sign second-round pick Isaiah Roby. Landing another veteran like Curry, who can reliably play a rotation role, should be the Mavs’ goal with the mid-level this offseason, and I expect they’ll earmark most or all of it for that purpose.

The challenge, of course, will be finding a quality contributor willing to accept a deal worth the MLE that’s only fully guaranteed for a single year, so as not to compromise the 2021 space. By comparison, Curry’s contract was for four years and $32MM.

One factor working in the Mavs’ favor is that so few teams have cap room available this offseason. Once a few of the bigger-name targets come off the board, that leaguewide cap space may completely dry up, so it’s possible that some solid players in the second or third tier of this year’s list of free agents won’t be able to do better than the mid-level. Dallas would be in position to take advantage of that situation.

We’ll have to wait to see what sort of players will be within reach for the Mavs when the free agent period begins. A couple potential targets I like are D.J. Augustin – a dependable point guard who can play on or off the board and make outside shots – and Marcus Morris, whose physicality and ability to guard high-scoring opposing forwards would help fill a hole on Dallas’ roster. However, it’s certainly possible both players will receive more appealing multiyear offers.

3. What will the Mavericks do with their two draft picks?

The Mavericks’ have another obvious path to upgrading their roster this summer: their two draft picks, which fall at No. 18 and No. 31. The team was able to find a contributor in the second round in 2018 (Jalen Brunson) and doing so with either of its draft picks this year would help open up options in the future, even if the player doesn’t make a major immediate impact.

Dallas currently has five role players slated to earn between $4-11MM in 2021/22. Trading one or more of those players in the next year would allow the club to create even more cap room in the 2021 offseason, and could be the difference between whether or not a max-salary slot is available.

The best way to make a veteran role player expendable is to find a younger, lower-cost player capable of doing many of the same things on the court that the vet does. If the Mavs draft well this year, it might clear the way to trade, say, Delon Wright.

While the Mavs hold the No. 18 and No. 31 selections for the time being, there are ways for the team to maximize the value of those picks beyond simply using them. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks suggests, combining those picks to potentially move up into the top 15 may be possible if there’s a target Dallas has its eye on. Acquiring a future first-rounder to help replace one of the picks dealt for Porzingis could be an option too.

With limited draft resources available for the next few seasons, the Mavs will want to consider all their options with these two picks to ensure they make the most of them.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Best NBA Head Coaching Hire So Far

October 2nd, 2020 at 2:10pm CST by Luke Adams

Despite some speculation earlier this year that financial constraints imposed by the coronavirus pandemic would discourage NBA teams from making head coaching changes, that hasn’t been the case at all over the last few months. A total of nine clubs – nearly a third of the league – have parted ways with coaches so far, and four of those clubs have since hired replacements.

Those four head coaching hires are as follows:

New York Knicks: Tom Thibodeau (replacing Mike Miller)
Brooklyn Nets: Steve Nash (replacing Jacque Vaughn)
Chicago Bulls: Billy Donovan (replacing Jim Boylen)
Philadelphia 76ers: Doc Rivers (replacing Brett Brown)

Thibodeau’s Bulls squads made the playoffs every year and the Timberwolves went into win-now mode when he arrived, so he didn’t necessarily seem like an obvious fit for the rebuilding Knicks. But his demanding coaching style could help get the most of New York’s young players as the team looks to return to the postseason, and he certainly won’t be intimidated by a large market.

As for the Nets, the expectation was that they’d bring in a veteran coach with a championship résumé to lead a team with title aspirations. Instead, their choice is a first-time head coach only a few years removed from retiring as a player. Nash has a preexisting relationship with Durant and his impressive accomplishments as a player should help earn him the respect of the Nets’ other veterans, but there may be a learning curve as the former two-time MVP adjusts to his first coaching job.

Donovan parted ways with the Thunder in large part because he wasn’t enthused by the idea of a rebuilding or retooling period, so it was a bit of a surprise to see him join a Bulls team coming off consecutive 22-win seasons. But it’s not as if he doesn’t have experience developing young players, having spent two decades coaching the Florida Gators. And if the Bulls take forward strides in the next year or two, Donovan’s playoff coaching experience should come in handy before long.

Finally, the Sixers hired Rivers on Thursday, pivoting to the former Clippers coach after having previously narrowed their field to Mike D’Antoni and Tyronn Lue. For a team trying to get over the hump in the playoffs, Rivers is an interesting choice — he wasn’t able to get over that hump in Los Angeles over the last seven years. And for Rivers, joining another team that features a superstar duo and some chemistry issues is a risk.

Still, despite some disappointing postseason losses, Rivers has consistently led his teams to winning records for more than a decade and he should command the respect of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.

What do you think? Which of these four coaching hires do you like the best for these teams, given their respective situations, their goals, and the other options that were available to them?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Poll: Will LeBron James Win Fourth Finals MVP Award?

September 30th, 2020 at 12:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Only one player in NBA history has won more than three Finals MVP awards — Michael Jordan has six, having earned the award during each of the six championship series he won with the Bulls.

Lakers forward LeBron James, one of four players to have been named Finals MVP three times, has a chance to win the award for a fourth time this year against Miami. And the odds are in his favor.

As we noted on Tuesday, the Lakers are fairly heavily favored to win this year’s Finals. And James, who has been named MVP each of the last three times his team has won a title, is the odds-on favorite to earn the award again if the Lakers win this year. At BetOnline.ag, he’s listed at -165 for Finals MVP, meaning you’d have to risk $165 to earn a $100 profit on a winning bet.

If you expect the Lakers to win this year’s championship, James is the safe bet. He finished second in 2019/20 regular-season MVP voting, and is leading the Lakers in a number of postseason statistics, including 10.3 RPG and 8.9 APG.

However, LeBron isn’t the only superstar on his team. Anthony Davis has been the Lakers’ leading scorer during the playoffs, with 28.8 RPG on .571/.366/.810 shooting — all of those percentages are better than James’ shooting rates. And it’s Davis who is considered the anchor of Los Angeles’ stout defense, having finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting this season. So even if the Lakers win this year’s title, it could be Davis, not James, that takes home the Finals MVP award.

Of course, if the Lakers can’t defeat the Heat, the odds of LeBron earning Finals MVP honors fall off drastically. James received some votes for the award back in 2015, when he averaged 35.8 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and 8.8 APG in a losing cause. But even then, with no clear-cut choice on the Warriors, losing the series meant losing out on the Finals MVP award. Andre Iguodala, whose numbers (16.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.0 APG) were pedestrian by comparison to LeBron, received more MVP votes.

In other words, if you expect Miami to pull off the upset, it’s safe to assume your Finals MVP pick will be a member of the Heat, whether it’s Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, or someone else.

What do you think? Will LeBron make history by becoming the second player in NBA history to win a fourth Finals MVP award? Or will he be beaten out for this year’s award by a teammate – presumably Davis – or a Heat player?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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