Hoops Rumors Originals

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Indiana Pacers

October 13th, 2020 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Indiana Pacers.

Salary Cap Outlook

After using their cap room last summer to sign or acquire multiyear, eight-figure contracts for Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. Warren, and Jeremy Lamb, the Pacers will have no space available this offseason.

With nearly $123MM in guaranteed money committed to 11 players so far, Indiana may not be in position to use its full mid-level exception without going into tax territory. The club is more likely to make use of the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Pacers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

T.J. McConnell ($3,500,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.

Two-Way Contracts:

Brian Bowen (expiring)
Naz Mitrou-Long (expiring)

Free Agents:

Justin Holiday (Non-Bird)
JaKarr Sampson (Non-Bird)
Alize Johnson (RFA; Early Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

None

Second Round:

No. 54 overall pick

The Pacers have their own second-round pick, but traded away their first-rounder (No. 24) to Milwaukee in last year’s Malcolm Brogdon sign-and-trade.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Has Victor Oladipo played his last game for the Pacers?

Oladipo will be entering a contract year in 2020/21 and he’s not a lock to remain in Indiana beyond his current deal. Ever since a spring report suggested that teams were monitoring Oladipo’s situation with the Pacers, rumors about his future have popped up more and more frequently.

The Heat were identified in the summer as a potential threat to lure Oladipo away from Indiana, with reports at the time suggesting the two-time All-Star would be prioritizing two things on his next contract: maximizing his earnings and putting himself in position to win a championship.

The unstated implication? If Oladipo decided the Pacers weren’t on track to become a legit title contender, it might make sense for him to push for a trade to a preferred destination sooner rather than later, since that would put him in position to get the best possible offer from that team in free agency (when he becomes a free agent, his current team can offer him more years and more money than rival suitors).

As a result of those earlier rumors, it didn’t come as a major surprise when a September report indicated Oladipo was “looking to move on” from Indiana or when a second report confirmed that he’s a candidate to be dealt this offseason. The 28-year-old has since attempted to downplay that chatter, but at this point it would be a bit surprising if Oladipo remains with the Pacers through 2020/21 and then signs a long-term deal with the franchise.

Throughout the process, the Pacers have stated that retaining Oladipo is a priority and have shown signals that they’ll do all they can to make it happen. They were even willing to pay him the remainder of his 2019/20 salary when he initially planned on opting out of the summer restart to focus on his health, despite the fact that he’d received medical clearance from doctors.

But if Indiana knows Oladipo plans to leave in free agency in 2021, it’s in the organization’s best interests to see what it can get for him before then rather to resign itself to losing him for nothing. The Pacers’ willingness to take that route with Paul George was the reason the team landed Oladipo (and fellow All-Star Domantas Sabonis) in the first place.

The challenge for the Pacers if they explore the trade market for an Oladipo deal will be finding a trade partner willing to give up a package that reflects the guard’s pre-injury value. Since Oladipo returned from his torn quad tendon in January, he hasn’t quite looked like the same player — in 19 games this season, he averaged just 14.5 PPG on .394/.317/.814 shooting.

Questions surrounding Oladipo’s health and production going forward will complicate any trade talks, especially if suitors believe they’ll have a shot to sign him outright in free agency a year from now. As such, an offseason trade definitely isn’t a sure thing.

In fact, sticking with Oladipo and hoping he looks like his old self to start next season may end up being Indiana’s best strategy. If Oladipo alleviates his health concerns in the first half, the Pacers could potentially extract more value for him at the trade deadline than they could this offseason — especially if multiple contenders view him as a missing piece for the stretch run.

2. Will the Pacers break up the Domantas Sabonis/Myles Turner frontcourt?

Since acquiring Sabonis in 2017, the Pacers have stubbornly insisted that he and Turner are capable of sharing the frontcourt in Indiana. They’re not necessarily wrong, but after three years of experimentation, it seems obvious that – despite some modest success – the two big men don’t exactly fit together seamlessly.

Two developments during the 2019/20 season may help steer the Pacers toward the idea of trading Turner.

The first was Sabonis’ emergence as an All-Star caliber player. He enjoyed a breakout year, averaging 18.5 PPG, 12.4 RPG, and 5.0 APG on 54.0% shooting in 62 games (34.8 MPG) and was badly missed during the restart when he was sidelined by a foot injury. He was perhaps Indiana’s best player in ’19/20 and is about to begin a team-friendly four-year, $75MM deal. It makes sense for the Pacers to keep him.

The second development was the emergence of T.J. Warren as one of the NBA’s most impressive scorers this summer. Warren’s numbers during the seeding games (31.0 PPG) almost definitely aren’t sustainable, but the fact that he enjoyed his best stretch of the season while serving as the team’s de facto power forward was eye-opening. He might not have been in position to produce like that Walt Disney World if both Sabonis and Turner had been healthy and in the starting lineup.

Turner is one of the NBA’s best shot-blockers and has knocked down 35.9% of his three-pointers over the last four seasons. He’s just 24 years old and he still has three years and $54MM left on his contract. That’s a very fair price for a two-way center entering his prime. He’d be a tremendous trade chip if Indiana makes him available — I wouldn’t even be shocked if the Pacers get a stronger offer for him than for Oladipo.

Cashing in Turner for 50 cents on the dollar because of the positional overlap with Sabonis would be a mistake, but there’s no indication the Pacers will make such a deal. If they do move Turner, they’ll do so with an eye toward acquiring an impact player who better suits their roster. I’ll be very interested to see if they can find that sort of trade this fall.

3. Who will the Pacers hire as their head coach?

Nate McMillan‘s ouster in Indiana this summer came as a bit of a surprise, since the veteran head coach had led the Pacers to a top-four seed in the East despite a handful of injury issues this season. Two key factors played a role in the front office’s decision — McMillan’s playoff record and his offensive style.

The Pacers are reportedly seeking a head coach who can modernize the club’s offense and get the team over the hump in the postseason after McMillan lost 16 of 19 playoff contests during his four-year tenure.

President of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard and the front office know they’ll have to hit a home run after parting ways with a popular head coach who had outperformed expectations during the regular season. All indications are that the organization is doing a ton of homework in an effort to make the right hire, having reportedly spoken to more than 20 candidates so far during the search process.

Indiana’s pool of contenders ranges from experienced former head coaches such as Mike D’Antoni, Mike Brown, and Dave Joerger to up-and-coming assistants like Darvin Ham, Ime Udoka, and David Vanterpool to a potential first-timer like Chauncey Billups.

Although McMillan’s dismissal wasn’t entirely expected, the Pacers generally don’t have a quick trigger finger when it comes to their head coaches — the team’s four most recent coaches have each served for four or more years. This is also the first time since his 2017 promotion that Pritchard will be responsible for a head coaching hire, so he’ll be looking for someone who can lead the franchise for years to come. It will be fascinating to see which direction the club goes.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Odds For 2020/21

October 13th, 2020 at 1:06pm CST by Luke Adams

The Heat lost just three games during the first three rounds against their playoff opponents in the East en route to an NBA Finals appearance this year, eliminating three of the top four seeds in the conference in the process. However, Miami’s impressive postseason run hasn’t made the team the favorite to come out of the East in 2021, according to oddsmakers.

At BetOnline.ag, the Heat are listed at +450 to win the Eastern Conference in ’21, meaning you’d win $450 on a $100 wager should Miami repeat as conference champs. The Bucks (+375), Celtics (+425), and Nets (+425) are currently considered more likely to represent the East in next year’s NBA Finals.

The rest of the odds to win the East next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:

Raptors: +750
Sixers: +1200
Bulls: +3300
Hawks: +3300
Pacers: +3300
Wizards: +3300
Magic: +10000
Cavaliers: +12500
Knicks: +12500
Pistons: +12500
Hornets: +17500

It’s obviously way too early to forecast the outcome of the 2020/21 season with any confidence. The draft and free agency are still to come, and we don’t know yet which teams will make major splashes on the trade market. If Victor Oladipo is dealt from Indiana to another Eastern team, for example, it could significantly change the conference’s outlook for next season.

Still, anticipated roster moves are at least somewhat baked into BetOnline’s current odds — if the Pacers had a ton of cap room to use this offseason and Oladipo and Myles Turner weren’t viewed as potential trade candidates, it’s a safe bet that they wouldn’t be listed alongside lottery teams Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington on the list above.

So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the East for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.

Should the Bucks be considered the favorites to win the East? Should the Heat be listed higher than fourth among Eastern teams? Are the Nets or other teams being overvalued? Are the Pacers or other teams being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the East next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Eastern Conference in 2020/21!

Checking In On NBA’s Active Head Coaching Searches

October 12th, 2020 at 4:58pm CST by Luke Adams

It has been a busy year on the NBA’s head coaching carousel, with four teams having hired new coaches since the hiatus originally began in March and five more clubs still in the market for a new coach.

In the space below, we’re checking in on where those five active searches stand and passing along what we know so far about the most likely candidates for those openings.

While this post is just meant to provide a snapshot of where things stand as of October 12, you can continue to follow the NBA’s coaching carousel in the coming weeks via our tracker.

Let’s dive in…

Houston Rockets

We just passed along an update on the Rockets’ search earlier today. It sounds like the team’s interview process currently includes seven candidates, several of whom have already spoken to the team: Tyronn Lue, Jeff Van Gundy, Kenny Atkinson, Stephen Silas, Wes Unseld Jr., David Vanterpool, and John Lucas.

Although assistant coaches Sam Cassell and Chris Finch have also been linked to the job, it doesn’t sound as if they’ve interviewed for it. For now, the seven candidates listed above appear to make up Houston’s pool of contenders, though it’s possible the team eventually casts a wider net.

Lue and Van Gundy were two of the first candidates connected to the position even before Mike D’Antoni parted ways with the team, and general manager Daryl Morey was reportedly interested in JVG a few years ago, when the Rockets ultimately went with D’Antoni. I’d probably view Lue and Van Gundy as the favorites, but if salary becomes an issue at all, perhaps the club will instead opt for a potential first-timer such as Silas, Unseld, or Vanterpool.

Indiana Pacers

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst previously reported that the Pacers had talked to over 20 candidates about their head coaching job. It’s not clear if all 20+ of those candidates had formal interviews with Indiana or if some of those conversations were more casual in nature, but it’s clear the team is being thorough as it seeks a replacement for Nate McMillan.

Based on a report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski earlier this month, it sounds as if the Pacers have gotten serious about the interview process within the last two weeks. Dave Joerger and Darvin Ham were reportedly among the candidates to emerge during that time, though it’s unclear how aggressive Indiana has been in narrowing down its list of finalists. Joerger and Ham may have plenty of company in that group of “finalists.”

Chris Finch and Chauncey Billups are reportedly among the other candidates to meet with the Pacers in the last couple weeks, and Scott Agness of VigilantSports.com tweeted on Sunday night that the team will have an opportunity to meet with Heat assistants Dan Craig and Chris Quinn now that the Finals are over. The full list of candidates linked to the Pacers’ job can be found within our tracker.

Los Angeles Clippers

There hasn’t been a ton of chatter about the Clippers’ opening since Doc Rivers‘ surprising departure two weeks ago. His lead assistant, Tyronn Lue, was identified as the early frontrunner, but those reports came with the caveat that the Clippers do intend to conduct a full-fledged search.

Jeff Van Gundy, Mike Brown, Darvin Ham, and Wes Unseld Jr. have been mentioned as possible candidates for L.A. With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George only a year away from free agency and the Clippers in championship-or-bust mode, the club will spare no expense on its new head coach, so it will be fascinating to see which direction Steve Ballmer and Lawrence Frank will go.

Frank is coming off an Executive of the Year win and hasn’t had a chance to pick his own head coach yet during his tenure with the Clippers (Rivers’ stint predated Frank’s arrival in L.A.). In theory, he should have some leeway to take a risk and go off the board with an unconventional Steve Nash-esque hire if he feels confident that’s the best path to take. But with such lofty expectations facing the Clippers in 2020/21, Frank will want to be absolutely sure he gets this hire right.

New Orleans Pelicans

Back when the Pelicans dismissed Alvin Gentry in August, one team (the Knicks) had already completed a coaching search and only one other (the Bulls) had a search in progress. Since then, the Bulls have finalized a hire, six more teams have parted ways with their head coaches, and two of those six teams (Brooklyn and Philadelphia) have made new hires of their own.

In other words, the Pelicans appear very willing to take their time with this process.

The lack of reports about the New Orleans job is somewhat surprising. Jason Kidd, Kenny Atkinson, and Jacque Vaughn were cited as possible candidates around the time of Gentry’s firing, but there haven’t been any real updates on them in recent weeks. Mike D’Antoni was said to be a dark-horse candidate before he left Houston, and that rumor popped up again when the Rockets parted ways with him, but it’s been quiet on that front as of late.

There are two scenarios I find most plausible here. One is that Tyronn Lue, who worked under Pelicans executive VP of basketball operations David Griffin in Cleveland, is New Orleans’ top choice and the team is waiting for him to go through the process with the Rockets and Clippers and make a decision.

The other viable scenario? Maybe the Pelicans are just playing things very close to the vest as they consider their options and will surprise us at some point with their decision.

Oklahoma City Thunder

If the silence around the Pelicans’ coaching job has been loud, the silence surrounding the Thunder’s vacancy has been deafening.

It has now been over a month since Oklahoma City and Donovan parted ways, and we’ve essentially heard nothing concrete since then about potential replacements. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst did name David Vanterpool, Adrian Griffin, and Will Hardy as possible candidates at one point, but that sounded like it could’ve just as easily been informed speculation rather than anything solid.

Given the reported motivation for Donovan’s departure, it seems like a safe bet that the Thunder will be looking to hire an up-and-coming coach who doesn’t mind enduring a rebuild and who can grow and develop along with the team’s young core. Given the lack of info coming out of Oklahoma City on the search so far, it’s unclear if the team is seriously clamping down on any leaks or if the search process just hasn’t gotten serious yet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

October 12th, 2020 at 4:35pm CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
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Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: What Will Be The Outcome Of The Finals?

October 11th, 2020 at 3:36pm CST by JD Shaw

When the Lakers and Heat tipped off Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday, several fans and league observers were prepared to crown the Lakers with their 17th championship in franchise history. Fast forward to today, and the Heat are now one win away from being one win away.

Miami will try to tie the series in Game 6 on Sunday night, with a potential Game 7 hanging in the balance on Tuesday. It’s a challenging feat for a club likely to be missing Goran Dragic (listed doubtful with a plantar fascia tear), but the Heat have embraced the identity of a team known for overcoming obstacles. They were propelled by Jimmy Butler in Game 5, who finished with an astounding 35 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists and five steals in over 47 minutes of action.

“Nothing,” Butler said of what he had left once the game ended, as relayed by Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.“I left it all out there on the floor along with my guys, and that’s how we’re going to have to play from here on out. Like I always say, it’s win or win for us. But this is the position that we’re in. We like it this way. We got two more in a row to get.”

For the Lakers, their fate could rest on the level of production they receive from players outside of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. If the supporting cast goes down, the team could very well go down with it. Rajon Rondo, Alex Caruso and Markieff Morris have all shown signs of promise off the bench this series, but no game has been more important than this.

Davis is listed as probable with a right heel contusion, while Miami’s Bam Adebayo has continued to play through a neck strain. Other players remain mentally and physically fatigued, but the NBA’s longest season to date will ultimately come to a close on Sunday or Tuesday.

What do you think? What will be the outcome of the NBA Finals? Do the Heat have enough left in the tank to force a Game 7 and potentially come back from a 3-1 deficit, or will the Lakers take control and finish the series in Game 6 or Game 7? Vote in our poll, then take to the comments section below!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Community Shootaround: Heat Free Agents

October 10th, 2020 at 12:28pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Heat surprised virtually everyone but themselves by reaching the Finals. And with two more victories, they’ll complete their Cinderella run.

Miami is positioned to become a powerhouse for years to come if it makes the right moves. Jimmy Butler has not only cemented his status as a star player during the restart but has now established himself as a franchise player. Tyler Herro‘s performances have many NBA executives kicking themselves for passing him up in last season’s draft. He’s, of course, in the early stages of his rookie deal.

However, a big chunk of their roster is filled with players can become free agents this offseason or in 2021. Team president Pat Riley has spent the last couple of years making moves to open up plenty of salary cap room for top-level free agents next season, with Giannis Antetokounmpo at the top of the wish list.

The play of a couple of veterans during the playoff run could complicate the process, particularly Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder, both of whom will be unrestricted free agents this fall. Dragic has only played 15 minutes during the Finals due to a foot injury but the Heat would have been eliminated in the earlier rounds if not for his steady playmaking.

Dragic has averaged 19.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 4.6 APG during the postseason. He set the tone for the series against Milwaukee and Boston, scoring 50 points against the Bucks in the first two games of that series and 54 against the Celtics when Miami jumped to a 2-0 lead.

Crowder was kind of an afterthought in the February trade with Memphis that brought Andre Iguodala to the Heat. Instead, he’s proven more valuable than Iguodala, averaging 12.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG in 31.6 MPG while making 34.6% of his 3s. He’s an even bigger force on the defensive end, often assigned to the opponent’s top scorer. He can switch onto much bigger frontcourt players and still hold his own.

Dragic is 34 and Crowder is 30 and this could be their last shot at landing lucrative, multi-year deals. While the Heat’s balance sheet could allow Riley to reward them in free agency, there are other considerations. Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn can become restricted free agents next summer and either one could receive a lucrative offer sheet, given their youth and production.

There’s also the overall concerns about how much the cap and luxury tax threshold could drop due to the loss of revenue during the pandemic.

That leads us to our question of the day: If Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder seek multi-year deals in free agency, should the Heat still try to re-sign them or should they continue to preserve cap space for next offseason? If they decide to sign one but not the other, which player should they pursue?

Please weigh in on this topic in the comments section. We look forward to your input.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Utah Jazz

October 9th, 2020 at 1:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

The only way the Jazz could realistically create cap space this offseason without cost-cutting roster moves would be if Mike Conley opts out of his $34.5MM salary for 2020/21. That won’t happen, so it’s a safe bet that Utah will operate as an over-the-cap club.

The Jazz’ ability to use their full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) may hinge on how they handle Jordan Clarkson‘s free agency, since a new deal for Clarkson would move team salary much closer to the tax. In that scenario, they may be limited to the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Jazz can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Mike Conley, early termination option: $34,502,132

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Georges Niang ($1,783,557)
Rayjon Tucker ($1,517,981)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $340K.
Juwan Morgan ($1,517,981)
Miye Oni ($1,517,981)
Nigel Williams-Goss ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Jarrell Brantley (expiring)
Justin Wright-Foreman (expiring)

Free Agents:

Jordan Clarkson (Bird)
Emmanuel Mudiay (Non-Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 23 overall pick

Second Round:

None

The Jazz could have picked as high as No. 21 in the first round based on their record, which put them in a tie with Houston and Oklahoma City. However, Utah lost the three-way tiebreaker and ended up at No. 23 instead.

Utah’s second-round pick (No. 51) was originally traded to Cleveland during the 2018/19 season for Kyle Korver. It changed hands three more times in subsequent deals, ultimately ending up with Golden State.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will Donovan Mitchell sign a contract extension this offseason?

Both Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will be eligible to sign new contracts this offseason, but they aren’t necessarily equally likely to get extensions.

Mitchell’s case is the simpler one. Having been drafted in the 2017 lottery, he’s entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, making him eligible for a rookie scale extension. If he signs a new contract, it would go into effect during the 2021/22 season and could have a starting salary worth up to 25% of that year’s cap — or even 30% of the cap, if he makes an All-NBA team next season.

It seems almost certain that Utah will offer Mitchell a maximum-salary deal sooner rather than later. In the unlikely event that the Jazz were still on the fence about that decision, Mitchell’s performance in seven playoff games this season certainly helped seal the deal — he couldn’t quite lead them to a series win, but averaged 36.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 4.9 APG with a .529/.516/.948 shooting line.

While negotiations between the two sides should be pretty simple, they’ll need to agree on possible Rose Rule language in an extension. That shouldn’t be too much of a challenge, especially if they use last year’s Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray rookie scale extensions as points of comparison.

The language in Simmons’ agreement with Philadelphia boosted his starting salary to 28% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA nod, and that figure would have increased to 30% if he made the First Team. The language in Murray’s deal with Denver – which included a salary at 26% of the cap for a Third Team All-NBA spot – was similar, albeit slightly more team-friendly.

The Jazz and Mitchell should be able to work out something in that same neighborhood, rewarding him with a slightly more lucrative long-term contract if he makes the leap to become an All-NBA player in 2020/21.

2. Will Rudy Gobert sign a new extension of his own this offseason?

Gobert’s extension eligibility will create a trickier situation for the Jazz. At age 28, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year is four years older than Mitchell and it’s unclear whether how much room his game still has to grow, so the club will have to keep that in mind as it considers a new long-term investment.

Mitchell’s next deal will also be a little more cost-controlled than Gobert’s could be. Even with an All-NBA berth next season, Mitchell can’t sign a rookie scale extension exceeding 30% of the cap. Due to Gobert’s All-NBA nods and DPOY awards, he has qualified for a veteran extension that can be worth up to 35% of the cap in 2021/22.

That may not seem like a substantial difference, but it adds up over the course of four or five years. If we assume the cap will be $115MM in 2021/22, an extension starting at 35% of the cap would be worth $40.25MM in year one and $233.45MM over five seasons. A 30% deal would start at $34.5MM and would be worth $200.1MM over five years.

Now, just because Gobert has qualified for a super-max extension doesn’t mean that the Jazz have to offer him one. Standard veteran extension rules would still allow Utah to offer Gobert up to $142.6MM on a four-year extension this offseason and that might be a more appropriate price for a player who is elite defensively but will never be nearly as dangerous on the offensive end.

Still, there are questions that must be addressed here. After two consecutive first-round playoff exits, are the Jazz still all-in on the Gobert/Mitchell duo? Because signing both players to lucrative long-term extensions will eat up a huge portion of the franchise’s cap room for years to come.

From Gobert’s perspective, would an extension offer below the super-max appeal to him? If he doesn’t get a super-max offer, perhaps he’d rather just wait for free agency in 2021 to sign a new deal, giving himself the chance to see what other opportunities are out there. We’ve seen some instances in the past where a team’s unwillingness to put a super-max on the table ultimately led to the player’s exit (ie. Jimmy Butler in Chicago or Kemba Walker in Charlotte).

And while it seemed by the end of Utah’s run in Orlando that any issues were long behind them, it’s worth noting that we’re only six months removed from reports about Mitchell and Gobert working on repairing their relationship after their positive coronavirus tests left them upset at one another. Are they ready to sign up for another five years of playing alongside one another?

I don’t expect the Jazz to seriously consider the idea of trading Gobert this fall. But it will be worth keeping a close eye on extension talks between the two sides — if they don’t work something out, the standout center will be on track to join a star-studded 2021 free agent class, with plenty of teams around the NBA expected to have cap room available.

3. Will the Jazz re-sign Jordan Clarkson?

Barring a shocking opt-out from Mike Conley, Clarkson will be the only key member of the Jazz rotation whose contract is expiring this offseason. His free agency creates a potential dilemma for the franchise.

Acquired last December in a trade with Cleveland, Clarkson immediately added some scoring punch to Utah’s second unit, enjoying one of the best runs of his career in 42 games with the Jazz. He posted 15.6 PPG on .462/.366/.785 shooting during that time, and his numbers didn’t fall off in the postseason either — he scored 16.7 PPG on .464/.347/1.000 shooting in seven playoff contests vs. Denver.

Clarkson’s ability to create his own shot and put the ball in the basket was a welcome addition to a Jazz roster that’s not exactly loaded with scorers, especially when Bojan Bogdanovic‘s season ended early due to wrist surgery. But he’s a somewhat one-dimensional player who’s not exactly an elite defender.

Utah president of basketball operations Dennis Lindsey spoke last month about prioritizing defensive-minded players this offseason. While Clarkson’s offense gave the team a boost, would his rotation spot be better utilized by a wing player who’s more capable of slowing down opposing scorers? And if Clarkson isn’t re-signed, will the Jazz have the cap flexibility to acquire a quality player who fits that bill?

If we assume Conley opts in and the Jazz keep their first-round pick while jettisoning their players on non-guaranteed contracts (except for Georges Niang), the team would be on the hook for about $116.4MM for 10 players. Re-signing Clarkson to a deal in the mid-level range would push that figure above $125MM. And if we assume the tax line will once again be $132.6MM, that doesn’t leave enough room below the tax for Utah to use its full mid-level exception.

Using the full MLE without going into the tax would be an option if the team lets Clarkson walk or cuts costs elsewhere, but it remains to be seen if that exception will be enough to acquire an impact rotation player.

A year ago, Seth Curry, Derrick Rose, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Tyus Jones were the players who received most or all of the non-taxpayer MLE. The Jazz may have to determine whether a player in that tier would be a better option than Clarkson — or if a leaguewide reluctance to spend might result in more intriguing options being available.

Given how well Clarkson fit in Utah this past season, I’d be a little surprised if the team simply lets him go. Perhaps a best-case scenario for the Jazz would be re-signing Clarkson at a fair price and then using a portion of the MLE to sign a free agent who lacks a strong track record but has some defensive upside (such as Derrick Jones). Trading for a wing is another possibility, though the Jazz aren’t loaded with a ton of expendable trade assets.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

October 8th, 2020 at 1:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

The Sixers will enter the 2020 offseason with one of the NBA’s most expensive rosters — the club has more than $142MM committed to just nine players so far in 2020/21, eliminating the possibility of cap room and making Philadelphia a near-lock to be a taxpayer.

Barring major cost-cutting moves, the 76ers would have the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.72MM) at their disposal in free agency.

Our full salary cap preview for the Sixers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Furkan Korkmaz ($1,762,796)
Norvel Pelle ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Marial Shayok (expires in 2021)

Free Agents:

Alec Burks (Non-Bird)
Glenn Robinson III (Non-Bird)
Raul Neto (Non-Bird)
Kyle O’Quinn (Non-Bird)
Ryan Broekhoff (N/A)
- Note: Broekhoff won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 21 overall pick

Second Round:

No. 34 overall pick
No. 36 overall pick
No. 49 overall pick
No. 58 overall pick

As has often been the case over the last few years, the Sixers have no shortage of draft picks available.

Philadelphia gave up its own 2020 first-rounder (No. 19) to acquire Tobias Harris from the Clippers in 2019, but the club has the Thunder’s first-round pick at No. 21 as a result of a Jerami Grant trade back in 2016. That selection, which had been top-20 protected, was sent to Orlando in 2017 for the rights to draft Anzejs Pasecniks before being traded back to Philadelphia in 2019 for Markelle Fultz.

In the second round, the Sixers have their own pick at No. 49, as well as the Hawks’, Knicks’, and Lakers’ selections.

Philadelphia got Atlanta’s pick (No. 34) when the Hawks moved up for Bruno Fernando in last year’s draft; the Knicks pick at No. 36 was acquired back in 2015 when New York traded for Willy Hernangomez‘s draft rights; and the Lakers’ pick (No. 58) was originally dealt to Orlando before being flipped to the Sixers at the 2020 deadline for James Ennis.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will the decision-making structure look like going forward?

Following a disappointing season, the Sixers wasted no time in firing head coach Brett Brown once they were eliminated from the playoffs. Around that same time, reports suggested that the team also planned to make some changes to its front office personnel and structure.

Since the departure of former head of basketball operations Bryan Colangelo in 2018, the 76ers’ front office has taken a collaborative approach to decision-making, but general manager Elton Brand said at season’s end that he and the club felt as if “the collaboration days didn’t work.”

The stage seemed set for the Sixers to either hire a president of basketball operations a level above Brand or to empower Brand by giving him the final say on personnel decisions. Instead, there was little clarity on Philadelphia’s front office plan for several weeks while the team was searching for its new head coach.

Identifying and hiring Brown’s replacement was supposed to be Brand’s responsibility, but team ownership was said to be heavily involved in the process. When the Sixers ultimately hired Doc Rivers, Jason Dumas of KRON4 News reported that team ownership had initially wanted Mike D’Antoni while Brand preferred Tyronn Lue — when Rivers became available, he represented a candidate that both sides agreed upon.

The hiring of Rivers further muddies the waters of the Sixers’ front office hierarchy. Rivers was formerly the Clippers’ president of basketball operations, and when he was asked in his introductory presser with the Sixers about personnel decisions, he said that he and Brand will “work together.” That sounds a lot like the “collaborative” approach that Brand said in August wasn’t working for the franchise.

Having too many cooks in the kitchen on major roster decisions could complicate trade talks and create other problems for the Sixers in the future. It would be in the organization’s best interests to have co-owners Josh Harris and David Blitzer clearly define the front office hierarchy to avoid any confusion going forward, since significant roster decisions are on the horizon.

It sounds like the team is working toward that goal, having reportedly started interviewing candidates for at least one executive role below Brand.

2. How invested are the Sixers in the Ben Simmons/Joel Embiid duo?

Shortly after the 76ers’ 2019/20 season came to an end, Brand declared that the team had no intention of trading either Simmons or Embiid. The plan, according to Brand, is to put together a roster that will better complement those two stars.

That approach comes as no surprise. When NBA teams bottom out like Philadelphia did during their infamous “Process,” the goal is to land a superstar-caliber player who can lead the franchise back to contention. Simmons and Embiid have their flaws, but they fit that criteria — they each have All-NBA berths under their belts and rank among the NBA’s best players at their respective positions. They’re also just 24 and 26 years old, respectively, so they have room to continue improving.

The problem, of course, is that their offensive styles don’t fit together as naturally as you’d like from your two stars. Simmons is a monster in transition, but still has little to no range on his jump shot, creating floor-spacing issues that clog the lane for Embiid, arguably the NBA’s best low-post scorer.

The duo’s mismatched nature has had some factions of NBA fans – in Philadelphia and elsewhere – clamoring for a trade involving one of the two players, since it’d be fascinating to see what they could do with their own teams built around their strengths.

For now though, the 76ers’ plan is to see if Rivers is capable of unlocking the potential of the Simmons/Embiid pairing. After all, it was just a puzzle that Brown was incapable of solving, then trading either player would be premature and short-sighted.

Still, while a Simmons or Embiid trade may not be in the cards this offseason, the Sixers need to start thinking about how long they’re committed to trying to make the marriage work. Even after the 2020/21 season, Embiid will have two more years on his contract and Simmons will be locked up for four seasons. Philadelphia could extract a substantial return for either player and could target packages headlined by players who would better suit their roster.

3. Can the Sixers find a favorable deal involving Tobias Harris or Al Horford?

If Simmons and Embiid are off the table, that means the Sixers’ best chance to shake up their roster this fall will involve moving one of their two other big-money contracts. Those deals belong to Harris, who still has four years and $147MM left, and to Horford, who has three years and $81MM remaining, though his final season is just partially guaranteed.

Neither of those players represents a positive asset right now. Harris remains a solid contributor, but with an annual salary of nearly $37MM over the next four years, he’s being paid as if he can be a top-two player on a title contender, which overstates his value.

As for Horford, he didn’t end up being a great fit alongside Embiid and it’s probably safe to say he’s past prime at age 34. His production won’t necessarily fall off a cliff, but his .450 FG% in his first season as a Sixer represented a career low, and his once-elite defensive skills will likely continue to fade as he enters his mid-30s and loses a step.

Although their trade value will be hurt by their exorbitant salaries, Harris and Horford could appeal to a team looking to get rid of an oversized contract of its own. That’s why Chris Paul has so frequently been cited as a potential trade target for Philadelphia.

Paul only has two years left on his contract, but his per-year salary during that time (approximately $42.8MM) is even higher than Harris’ or Horford’s. His play-making and shot-making abilities would also be a nice fit on a Sixers roster that could use a little help on both fronts.

Philadelphia native Kyle Lowry is also the sort of player the Sixers would presumably love to target. His game is similar to Paul’s and he’s even more affordable (one year at $30.5MM), though the Raptors presumably won’t be nearly as motivated to move him as the Thunder would be to find a taker for Paul.

Buddy Hield‘s is another name that has popped up frequently in 76ers-related trade speculation. He’s reportedly not thrilled with his situation in Sacramento and has liked social media posts linking him to Philadelphia. If the Sixers are targeting outside shooting, it’d be hard to do much better than Hield, who has made 41.1% of 6.7 three-point attempts per game since entering the league in 2016. His contract, worth $86MM over four years, plus incentives, isn’t necessarily a bargain, but it’s more team-friendly than Horford’s or Harris’.

Of those two Sixers contracts, Horford’s – which is shorter-term and less expensive than Harris’ – may be easier to move. Trading Horford rather than Harris probably also makes more sense for the Sixers from an on-court perspective, since it’s easier to find reliable backup centers on the cheap than it is to find productive wings.

Still, even if the 76ers’ top target is a mid-30s veteran with an oversized contract like Paul, it will take more than Horford to get a deal done. To acquire any sort of starting-caliber player, Philadelphia will have to be prepared to dip into its pool of future draft picks.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Non-Bird Free Agents Who May Be Difficult To Re-Sign

October 7th, 2020 at 12:22pm CST by Luke Adams

Every player who finishes a season as a member of an NBA roster gets some form of Bird rights as a free agent, allowing his team to go over the cap to re-sign him. However, a player who spent just one year with his club typically only has Non-Bird rights, which are the weakest form of Bird rights, as their oxymoronic name suggests.

With the Non-Bird exception, a team can re-sign a player for up to four years and give him a raise, but that raise has to be a modest one. Non-Bird rights allow for a starting salary worth up to 120% of the player’s previous salary or 120% of the minimum salary, whichever is greater.

In other words, a Non-Bird free agent who earned $5MM can only get a starting salary worth up to $6MM on his new deal unless his team uses cap room or another exception (such as the mid-level) to bring him back.

This cap restriction will apply specifically to a handful of players around the NBA who may be in line for raises this summer. Because these players will be Non-Bird free agents, it may be a challenge for their teams to re-sign them without cap room or an exception like the bi-annual or mid-level.

Let’s take a closer look at five players who will fall into this category this offseason…

Markieff Morris, F, Lakers
Dwight Howard, C, Lakers

During their run to the NBA Finals, the Lakers have matched up with talented opposing centers such as Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, and Bam Adebayo, while also facing a Rockets team that doesn’t use a traditional center. Anthony Davis has, of course, been the most important factor in the Lakers winning those frontcourt battles, but Morris and Howard have played major roles as well, proving their value as role players on a championship-caliber team.

Morris signed a $1.75MM contract during the season, while Howard’s one-year deal is worth the veteran’s minimum, so neither player can sign for more than 120% of the minimum if the over-the-cap Lakers hope to use their Non-Bird rights. If the cap doesn’t increase, that would mean a max of $2.8MM for Morris and $3.08MM for Howard.

My assumption is that both players would be able to do better than that on the open market. So if they’re not willing to accept team-friendly discounts to remain in Los Angeles, the Lakers may have to dip into their mid-level exception (projected to be worth $9.26MM) to try to re-sign one or both players.

Carmelo Anthony, F, Trail Blazers

Anthony’s NBA career appeared to be on the verge of ending before he worked out a minimum-salary deal with Portland. He outperformed that modest contract, with 15.4 PPG and 6.3 RPG on .430/.385/.845 shooting in 58 games (all starts) for the Trail Blazers in 2019/20.

Like Howard, Anthony would be limited to a ’20/21 salary of $3.08MM via his Non-Bird rights. If the Blazers need to go higher than that to retain him, they’ll have to repeat a move they used last summer, when they re-signed Non-Bird free agent Rodney Hood with their taxpayer mid-level exception in order to give him a raise.

Jeff Green, F, Rockets

Green was underwhelming during his brief stint with Utah early in the 2019/20 season, but he thrived in Houston, averaging 12.2 PPG on .564/.354/.857 shooting in 18 games (22.6 MPG) as part of the club’s micro-ball lineup. He was nearly as good in the postseason, with 11.6 PPG on .495/.426/.824 shooting in an increased role (28.6 MPG).

Green hasn’t signed a contract worth more than the minimum since 2016, so it’s possible that’s all it will take for Houston or another team to sign him this fall. That’d be a best-case scenario for the Rockets, given how well he fit in their system down the stretch — topping any rival offer exceeding $3.08MM would mean dipping into the mid-level or bi-annual.

Reggie Jackson, G, Clippers

Like most players on the buyout market, Jackson signed a minimum-salary contract with the Clippers to finish out the season, meaning the team will be limited to an offer starting at about $2.8MM.

Jackson was pretty good for the Clippers in 17 regular season games, knocking down 41.3% of his three-point attempts and chipping in 9.5 PPG and 3.2 APG. But he fell out of the rotation in the second round of the playoffs vs. Denver, and the Clippers will likely be looking to upgrade the point guard position this fall. A reunion probably doesn’t make sense for either side, especially if Jackson can get offers exceeding the Non-Bird limit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Knicks’ Offseason Trade Options

October 6th, 2020 at 5:01pm CST by Luke Adams

With only about $56MM in guaranteed salary on their books for next season, the Knicks have the flexibility necessary to create cap room and make a run at one or more top free agents. However, the team also feels as if it’s well-positioned to trade for an impact player, as an April report indicated.

This year’s free agent class isn’t particularly star-heavy, so it’s possible that greasing the wheels for a blockbuster trade may be a better use of the Knicks’ cap space. Plus, New York has accumulated seven first-round picks in the next four drafts and has a roster loaded with former lottery selections, so the team could put together an appealing package for the right player.

In a report this week, Marc Berman of The New York Post indicated that Pacers guard Victor Oladipo could be that player. Knicks general manager Scott Perry, who drafted Oladipo when he was a member of the Magic front office in 2013, “still is enamored” with him, according to Berman, and there have been rumblings that the All-Star may not be fully committed to Indiana for the long term.

Thunder guard Chris Paul, a former CAA client of new Knicks president of basketball operations Leon Rose, is another potential trade target for the franchise.

Writing today about that possibility in a separate story for The New York Post, Berman suggests that Oklahoma City would likely seek a first-round pick and a young prospect on his rookie contract in return for Paul. According to Berman, the Thunder would probably target Kevin Knox in a deal with New York, while the Knicks would rather give up Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr.

Oladipo and Paul aren’t the only potential trade candidates who could catch the Knicks’ eye this offseason, but they’re probably two of the only All-Stars who will realistically be available. Within his initial article on Oladipo, Berman names three more trade targets who would intrigue the Knicks, but it’s hard to imagine any of them (Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Paul George) actually changing teams this fall.

Of course, even if Embiid, Towns, George, or another superstar becomes available, the cost to acquire them in a trade would be extremely high. On the other hand, there are certain factors that should keep the price tags of Oladipo (health; expiring contract) and Paul (age; exorbitant salary) in check, which may appeal to the Knicks — making a trade for one of those two players could help New York move back toward playoff contention without emptying the team’s treasure chest of assets.

In today’s Community Shootaround, we want to get your input on the Knicks’ offseason options.

Does Oladipo look like an appealing trade target for New York? How about Paul? Should the team wait for a star with fewer question marks to become available before looking to trade future first-round picks? Or should the Knicks altogether avoid trading multiple assets for one impact player, focusing instead – for now at least – on using their cap room to sign free agents or to keep adding draft picks by taking on unwanted contracts?

Head to the comment section to share your thoughts on the Knicks’ offseason plan!

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