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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

August 25th, 2020 at 8:30pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Chicago Bulls.

Salary Cap Outlook

Otto Porter Jr.‘s $28.5MM player option, which is a virtual lock to be exercised, should ensure that the Bulls remain over the cap during the 2020 offseason. Once that option is officially on the books, Chicago’s team salary will increase to $106MM in guaranteed money, even before accounting for cap holds for the team’s lottery pick and free agents.

The Bulls will also have the full mid-level exception (about $9.3MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.6MM) available.

Our full salary cap preview for the Bulls can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Otto Porter Jr., player option: $28,489,239 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • None

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 4 overall pick

The Bulls moved up three spots as a result of the draft lottery, claiming the No. 4 overall pick despite entering lottery night with the seventh-best odds.

Second Round:

  • No. 44 overall pick

The Bulls traded away their own second-round pick (No. 37), but acquired the Grizzlies’ selection, which will be No. 44.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Who will be the Bulls’ next head coach?

After a tumultuous year-and-a-half at the helm, Jim Boylen was let go this summer by new Bulls front office executives Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley. While it took a little longer than expected for the team to finalize that decision, it puts the new Bulls decision-makers in position to immediately place their stamp on the franchise with their own head coach, rather than making Boylen a lame duck for the next year.

Since Boylen’s ouster, names like Kenny Atkinson, Wes Unseld Jr., Darvin Ham, Stephen Silas, and David Vanterpool have been connected to the Chicago job. Even before a decision was made on Boylen, Ime Udoka and Adrian Griffin were rumored to be frontrunners for the position.

It’s a big, diverse group and it could get even bigger once the Bulls begin to formally interview candidates. However, most of the names have something in common — they’re experienced assistants without any head coaching experience themselves.

Atkinson is the one exception to the rule so far, but the former Nets head coach doesn’t represent a major deviation from the rest of the group. After all, he was brought in to help guide a rebuilding Brooklyn team. Once the club began making the transition from prioritizing player development to focusing on contending for a title, Atkinson was dismissed.

In replacing Boylen, the Bulls seem to be seeking an up-and-coming head coach who will focus on developing and connecting with the team’s young players, rather than a veteran who has experience dealing with stars and guiding playoff teams.

While that direction makes sense, it may increase the degree of difficulty for Karnisovas and Eversley, since their pick won’t necessarily have an extensive head coaching résumé to evaluate. It’s the duo’s first major decision and it will be important to get it right, so I expect the Bulls to take their time and do their homework on many candidates before finalizing a hire.

2. Which incumbent players are the new decision-makers most – and least – attached to?

The Bulls haven’t won more than 27 games in any of the last three seasons, but the roster that Karnisovas and Eversley are inheriting is hardly devoid of talent.

Zach LaVine has developed into one of the Eastern Conference’s top scorers (25.5 PPG in 2019/20). And in Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter, and Coby White, Chicago has the No. 7 overall picks from each of the last three drafts. Markkanen and Carter have been hampered by health issues and inconsistency, but all three of those players have shown promise since entering the NBA, and all three are 23 years old or younger.

Since taking the reins in Chicago, Karnisovas and Eversley have talked about placing a focus on development and looking to get the most out of the club’s young players — especially those who may have taken a step back last season. As such, it’s possible the team will stand relatively pat during this offseason and see what it can get out of those youngsters under a new head coach in 2020/21 before doing anything too drastic.

However, it’s also worth noting that the new decision-makers aren’t necessarily attached to any of those young, would-be cornerstones. This fall may not be the right time to move guys like Markkanen or Carter, since the Bulls would be selling low, but if the club gets an offer it likes for one of them or LaVine, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the front office pull the trigger.

Again, any major roster shake-up is probably unlikely until at least the 2021 deadline, but this will be a situation worth monitoring under the new regime.

3. Can the Bulls secure a long-term cornerstone with the No. 4 pick?

While it remains to be seen which of the Bulls’ returning players the new front office will commit to long-term, we can safely assume that the player the team drafts at No. 4 this fall will be given every opportunity to succeed over the next few years. It will be the first opportunity Karnisovas and Eversley have to acquire a potential future building block for the club, and – like the coaching hire – they’ll badly want to get it right.

With no prospects necessarily locked into the top three spots, we don’t know for sure which players will still be available at No. 4 for Chicago. But LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, and James Wiseman have most frequently been cited as contenders for the No. 1 spot, so let’s assume for now that those are the first three players drafted in 2020.

In that scenario, the Bulls would be picking from a group that includes wings Deni Avdija, Isaac Okoro, and Devin Vassell, guards Tyrese Haliburton and Killian Hayes, power forward Obi Toppin, and center Onyeka Okongwu.

Although I don’t believe Chicago should – or will – be drafting based on need, the idea of selecting one of those wings is intriguing. Otto Porter Jr. likely isn’t the Bulls’ long-term solution at small forward, so if the team is high on a player like Avdija, Okoro, or Vassell, it would be a great match. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic notes that Okoro’s ability to guard wings would make him a nice complement to LaVine and White.

Still, the Bulls will certainly go in another direction if they feel there’s a prospect with more upside. In his most recent mock draft, for instance, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony has Chicago selecting Toppin, observing that the National Player of the Year could play alongside either Markkanen or Carter.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Restart Edition

August 21st, 2020 at 5:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. With the first round of the playoffs ongoing at the Orlando campus, it’s time to examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors.

Jordan Clarkson, Jazz, 27, SG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $50MM deal in 2016
The late-December deal with the Cavaliers that sent Clarkson to Utah was one of the most impactful trades this season. Clarkson filled a much-needed role as a scorer off the bench for the Jazz. He has reinforced his value during the restart, particularly during the first-round series with Mike Conley leaving Orlando for the birth of a child. Clarkson averaged 22.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 3.0 APG in the first two playoff games against Denver and was a team-best +33 in Friday’s Game 3 win. Utah will certainly try to retain Clarkson but the Jazz will have competition for one of the league’s top reserves in the prime of his career.

Paul Millsap, Nuggets, 35, PF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $90MM deal in 2017
Michael Porter Jr. has been playing some small forward for Denver during the restart due to injuries but his future in the current NBA is at the four, the spot Millsap has occupied when healthy. Millsap’s performances in the restart have been rather forgettable – 10 points or less in five of seven seeding games, along with 21 total points and seven rebounds in 65 minutes during the first three games of the Utah series. Perhaps the Nuggets will bring back Millsap if he’s willing to accept a modest contract and a bench role. It’s hard to see any other team viewing the big man as a starter at this stage of his career, so interest in him may be limited.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Nets, 25, SG (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2.48MM deal in 2019
Luwawu-Cabarrot has been one of the big surprises in Orlando. The Nets staggered into Orlando with a depleted roster, but the performances of Luwawu-Cabarrot and other unsung players allowed them to win five seeding games. He scored 24 or more points in three seeding games and has been a major factor off the bench against Toronto in the Nets’ first-round playoff series, averaging 21.5 PPG in the first two games while making 47.4% of his 3-point attempts before the Raptors slowed him down on Friday. His $1.8MM salary for next season is not guaranteed, but he has forced Brooklyn’s hand to retain him beyond this season.

Trey Burke, Mavericks, 27, PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $229K deal in 2020
Burke filled a roster spot this summer with Willie Cauley-Stein opting out of the restart. Though the Mavs still had other guard options, Burke has played steady minutes off the bench, averaging 12.0 PPG and 3.8 APG in the eight seeding games. He impacted Game 2 of the playoff series against the Los Angeles Clippers, scoring 16 points in 18 minutes. If nothing else, the 6-foot point man who has played for five organizations proved this summer he belongs on an NBA roster as a second-unit floor leader.

Jeff Green, Rockets, 33, PF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $696K deal in 2020
Raise your hand if you thought Green would be an impact player this postseason after the Jazz lopped him off the roster to add a G League standout. The Rockets rescued him off the scrap heap and he’s been a marvelous fit in Mike D’Antoni’s small ball system. Green scored in double digits in all but one of the seeding games and he’s been a huge factor against Oklahoma City in the playoffs, averaging 18.5 PPG and 6.5 RPG in 35.0 MPG through two games. If D’Antoni remains in Houston beyond this season, Green will likely re-sign there. If not, the journeyman has earned another opportunity to wear an NBA uniform.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Draft Picks By Team

August 21st, 2020 at 8:42am CST by Luke Adams

In addition to claiming the top three spots in the 2020 NBA draft based on this year’s lottery results, the Timberwolves, Warriors, and Hornets are three of eight teams that will own more than two draft picks this fall.

As our full 2020 draft order shows, the Sixers lead the way with five picks, while the Kings, Pelicans, and Celtics have four apiece. Like Minnesota, Golden State, and Charlotte, the Knicks also hold three selections. On the other end of the spectrum, the Rockets are the only team without a 2020 draft pick.

To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2020 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 60 picks by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Teams with more than two picks:

  • Philadelphia 76ers (5): 21, 34, 36, 49, 58
  • Sacramento Kings (4): 12, 35, 43, 52
  • New Orleans Pelicans (4): 13, 39, 42, 60
  • Boston Celtics (4): 14, 26, 30, 47
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (3): 1, 17, 33
  • Golden State Warriors (3): 2, 48, 51
  • Charlotte Hornets (3): 3, 32, 56
  • New York Knicks (3): 8, 27, 38

Teams with two picks:

  • Chicago Bulls: 4, 44
  • Atlanta Hawks: 6, 50
  • Washington Wizards: 9, 37
  • San Antonio Spurs: 11, 41
  • Orlando Magic: 15, 45
  • Portland Trail Blazers: 16, 46
  • Dallas Mavericks: 18, 31
  • Brooklyn Nets: 19, 55
  • Oklahoma City Thunder: 25, 53
  • Toronto Raptors: 29, 59

Teams with one pick:

  • Cleveland Cavaliers: 5
  • Detroit Pistons: 7
  • Phoenix Suns: 10
  • Miami Heat: 20
  • Denver Nuggets: 22
  • Utah Jazz: 23
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 24
  • Los Angeles Lakers: 28
  • Memphis Grizzlies: 40
  • Indiana Pacers: 54
  • Los Angeles Clippers: 57

Teams with no picks:

  • Houston Rockets
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Full 2020 NBA Draft Order

August 20th, 2020 at 8:29pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2020 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on November 18, or in the days leading up to draft night — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2020 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves
  2. Golden State Warriors
  3. Charlotte Hornets
  4. Chicago Bulls
  5. Cleveland Cavaliers
  6. Atlanta Hawks
  7. Detroit Pistons
  8. New York Knicks
  9. Washington Wizards
  10. Phoenix Suns
  11. San Antonio Spurs
  12. Sacramento Kings
  13. New Orleans Pelicans
  14. Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
  15. Orlando Magic
  16. Houston Rockets (from Trail Blazers)
  17. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
  18. Dallas Mavericks
  19. Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
  20. Miami Heat
  21. Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
  22. Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
  23. New York Knicks (from Jazz)
  24. New Orleans Pelicans (from Pacers via Bucks)
  25. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
  26. Boston Celtics
  27. Utah Jazz (from Clippers via Knicks)
  28. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Lakers)
  29. Toronto Raptors
  30. Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Second Round:

  1. Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
  2. Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Hawks via Sixers)
  5. Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
  6. Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
  7. Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
  8. Utah Jazz (from Hornets via Knicks)
  9. New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
  10. Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
  11. San Antonio Spurs
  12. New Orleans Pelicans
  13. Sacramento Kings
  14. Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
  15. Milwaukee Bucks (from Magic)
  16. Portland Trail Blazers
  17. Boston Celtics (from Nets)
  18. Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
  19. Philadelphia 76ers
  20. Atlanta Hawks (from Heat)
  21. Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
  22. Sacramento Kings (from Rockets)
  23. Oklahoma City Thunder
  24. Indiana Pacers
  25. Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
  26. Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
  27. Los Angeles Clippers
  28. Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
  29. Toronto Raptors
  30. Milwaukee Bucks (via Pelicans)
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2020 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

August 20th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020 NBA draft lottery will take place on Thursday night prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Lakers and Trail Blazers. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

This year’s draft class doesn’t feature a consensus No. 1 pick like Zion Williamson, but the team that wins the 2020 lottery will get its pick of an intriguing group of top prospects that includes LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, and James Wiseman, among others.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

This year’s draft lottery features the 14 teams that didn’t make the playoffs, sorted by their records as of March 11, the date the 2019/20 season was suspended. The top 14 picks in the 2020 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Golden State Warriors
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves
  4. Atlanta Hawks
  5. Detroit Pistons
  6. New York Knicks
  7. Chicago Bulls
  8. Charlotte Hornets
  9. Washington Wizards
  10. Phoenix Suns
  11. San Antonio Spurs
  12. Sacramento Kings
  13. New Orleans Pelicans
  14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis Grizzlies)
    • Note: The Grizzlies will keep this pick if it moves up into the top four (2.4% chance).

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Warriors, Cavaliers, and Timberwolves have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Hawks (48.1%), Pistons (42.1%), Wizards (37.2%), and Bulls (32.0%) have the best odds to land in the top four.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Only one trade will have an impact on Thursday night’s lottery results. Here are the details on that deal:

Celtics/Grizzlies

The Celtics own the Grizzlies‘ top-six protected first-round pick, so they’ll receive that selection if it’s No. 7 or lower. There’s a 97.6% chance that will happen, since Memphis ranks 14th in the lottery standings.

The pick will either land at No. 14 or move into the top four, in which case the Grizzlies would keep it. There’s only a 2.4% chance that will happen, but Memphis did move up several spots in the lottery a year ago — perhaps the team can get lucky again in 2020.

In the unlikely event that the Grizzlies keep the pick this year, they’d owe the Celtics their unprotected first-round pick in 2021.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s draft lottery will be a virtual event, so representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams will be joining the broadcast remotely.

Those reps are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

  1. Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers: Brad Daugherty (former player)
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves: D’Angelo Russell
  4. Atlanta Hawks: Jami Gertz (co-owner)
  5. Detroit Pistons: Troy Weaver (general manager)
  6. New York Knicks: Leon Rose (president of basketball operations)
  7. Chicago Bulls: Arturas Karnisovas (executive VP of basketball operations)
  8. Charlotte Hornets: Devonte’ Graham
  9. Washington Wizards: Rui Hachimura
  10. Phoenix Suns: James Jones (general manager)
  11. San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt (team owner)
  12. Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox
  13. New Orleans Pelicans: Trajan Langdon (general manager)
  14. Memphis Grizzlies: Elliot Perry (minority owner/director of player support)

Lottery Format:

This will be the second year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

One year is too small a sample size to draw any conclusions about the new format, but 2019’s results showed that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

A year ago, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eight, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. If that were to happen again this year, it’d mean the Bulls at No. 1, the Hornets at No. 2, and the Spurs at No. 4.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Lakers’ Postseason Outlook

August 20th, 2020 at 12:29pm CST by Luke Adams

A dominant regular season leading up to the stoppage of the NBA’s season in March all but locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference for the Lakers entering the summer restart. However, the team hasn’t quite looked like itself since play resumed. LeBron James‘ squad went 3-5 during the seeding games and dropped Game 1 of its first-round series to the No. 8 Trail Blazers.

The Lakers’ shooting doomed them in Game 1. Despite out-rebounding the Blazers, winning the turnover battle, and moving the ball better, the Lakers just couldn’t put the ball in the basket, finishing with an abysmal shooting line of .351/.156/.645.

L.A. still only lost by seven points, and the team’s shooting won’t be that bad every game. But beyond James and Anthony Davis, many of the Lakers’ secondary scorers are streaky, including Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who went a combined 4-of-21 from the floor on Tuesday. Additionally, Avery Bradley‘s absence means the club is without its top perimeter defender — that’s not insignificant in a series against Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

In a discussion about the Lakers’ situation today, ESPN’s writers expressed mixed opinions on whether it’s too early to start worrying about the team. As Kevin Pelton points out, L.A. is still getting the same quality shots it got during the regular season, and it seems likely those shots will start dropping at some point. However, Nick Friedell and Andre Snellings view the Lakers’ roster as top-heavy and have questions about the supporting cast.

Neither Friedell nor Royce Young necessarily expects the Lakers to fall in the first round to the eighth-seeded Blazers. However, both ESPN writers expressed skepticism that L.A. should still be considered a prime championship frontrunner.

It’s worth noting that even before the Lakers’ Game 1 loss to Portland, sports books had generally started listing the Clippers as title favorites over the Lakers, with some moving the Bucks ahead as well, per David Purdum of ESPN.

What do you think? Has your opinion of the Lakers changed at all since the restart began? Do you expect them to start firing on all cylinders again any day now? How confident do you feel right now in forecasting a Finals appearance – or win – for the Lakers?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

August 17th, 2020 at 3:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the New York Knicks.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Knicks have seven players with non-guaranteed (or partially guaranteed) contracts or team options for next season, totaling nearly $50MM. Their decisions on those players will go a long ways toward dictating their cap flexibility for the coming offseason.

Assuming at least a couple of the more expensive players are let go – including Bobby Portis ($15.75MM) and Wayne Ellington ($8MM) – New York is in position to open up a decent chunk of cap room — perhaps in the $25-30MM range.

Our full salary cap preview for the Knicks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Bobby Portis, team option: $15,750,000 (Oct. 17 deadline)
  • Theo Pinson, team option: $1,701,593 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

  • Taj Gibson ($9,450,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
  • Wayne Ellington ($8,000,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
  • Elfrid Payton ($8,000,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
  • Reggie Bullock ($4,200,000)
    • Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
  • Mitchell Robinson ($1,663,861)

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 6 overall pick (pending lottery results)
  • No. 27 overall pick

The Knicks have the sixth-best lottery odds, but their most likely pick is No. 7 (29.6%). They have a 9.0% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 37.2% chance at a top-four selection. No. 6 (8.6%), No. 8 (20.6%), and No. 9 (3.8%) are also in play, while No. 10 (0.2%) is an extreme long shot.

The Knicks will also receive the Clippers’ first-round pick, which landed at No. 27.

Second Round:

  • No. 38 overall pick

The Knicks traded away their own second-round pick (No. 36), but acquired the Hornets’ selection, which will be No. 38.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What sort of impact will the Knicks’ new leadership have?

The Knicks have undergone a major overhaul off the court in 2020. Veteran player agent Leon Rose was hired to head up the team’s basketball operations department, with Frank Zanin and Walt Perrin coming aboard as assistant general managers and William “World Wide Wes” Wesley being named the club’s executive VP/senior basketball advisor.

The first major task the new-look front office faced was hiring a permanent head coach, and the group settled on Tom Thibodeau, who has six postseason appearances and four playoff series wins under his belt as a head coach in Chicago and Minnesota.

There has been no shortage of turnover within the Knicks’ leadership ranks since the team last appeared in the playoffs in 2013. Thibodeau is the seventh head coach since then, and the front office has been overseen by several executives in recent years, including Steve Mills, Scott Perry, and Phil Jackson.

None of those coaches or execs have had much success in New York, and one school of thought suggests that team owner James Dolan is to blame. As long as Dolan is running the show, the theory goes, the Knicks will be incapable of building a winning culture and becoming a desirable landing spot for NBA stars.

Dolan may not be the ideal NBA team owner, but he has mostly avoided meddling in basketball matters in recent years, and he can’t be blamed for the majority of the questionable signings, draft picks, and trades the Knicks have made during that time. The right front office and head coach should be able to succeed in spite of Dolan, and the law of averages suggests that the franchise should – at some point – stumble upon the right combination.

Can Rose and Thibodeau be that “right combination”? The Knicks are hopeful that Rose’s decades of experience dealing with players and building relationships will translate into success in roster building and free agent recruiting. And Thibodeau is an experienced head coach who is liked and respected by a number of veteran stars around the league. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, but there’s at least some reason for optimism that this president/coach pairing can be more effective than the team’s recent duos.

2. Will the Knicks take a different approach with cap room this time around?

A year ago, the Knicks entered the offseason with enough cap space available to sign two maximum-salary free agents. But they were unable to convince any of the top players on the market to sign with them, and instead used the majority of their cap room to sign solid but unspectacular veterans to deals with no more than one fully guaranteed season (Julius Randle, who received two fully guaranteed seasons on his three-year contract, was the exception).

The thinking was that those veterans could help the Knicks compete for a playoff spot, then if things didn’t work out, they could be shopped for draft picks or young players at the trade deadline. New York was never in the playoff race though, and the only veteran who drew considerable interest at the deadline was Marcus Morris, who was almost an accidental signing last July — he received most of the Knicks’ remaining cap room after pulling out of a verbal agreement with the Spurs.

The Knicks can’t force star free agents to sign with them, and using their cap room to invest in long-term deals for second- or third-tier players would be ill-advised. But there were other ways to maximize their cap space, and there will be again this year, as long as the club sheds some of those 2019 signees without full guarantees for ’20/21.

The trade market offers one such avenue. A year ago, the Clippers’ willingness to take on Maurice Harkless’ $11MM expiring contract earned them a first-round pick along with a player who was a key part of their rotation until he was flipped at the trade deadline. The Knicks didn’t take advantage of any similar trade opportunities with their cap room in 2019, but they could look to do so in 2020 if there are no free agents who catch their eye.

Simply accommodating a salary-dump or two could allow New York to acquire some extra draft capital, but the team could get more ambitious than that. If the Knicks are willing to take on multiyear money, they could target high-priced impact players such as Chris Paul or Blake Griffin. Those guys likely aren’t part of their teams’ long-term plans and wouldn’t require a massive return, given their exorbitant salaries.

I’m a little skeptical that the new front office will want to go that route though, since it would mean compromising the team’s cap flexibility for 2021 for stop-gap veterans. The Knicks will want a shot at the top players in next year’s class, which will probably mean using this year’s room to sign short-term deals or to acquire expiring contracts.

3. What do the Knicks have in their former lottery picks?

Among the Knicks’ returning players, there are four who were top-10 picks in the last three NBA drafts: Frank Ntilikina (No. 8 in 2017), Dennis Smith Jr. (No. 9 in ’17), Kevin Knox (No. 9 in ’18), and RJ Barrett (No. 3 in ’19).

This will be a crucial year for all four, but especially for Ntilikina and Smith, who are entering the final season of their respective rookie contracts. Ntilikina is a strong defender whose offensive game remains extremely limited, while Smith’s shooting struggles have held him back. It seems safe to assume that neither will receive a rookie scale extension this offseason — the question is whether either will begin the season with a new team.

The Knicks have been unwilling to sell low on Ntilikina in the past and didn’t end up moving Smith at this season’s deadline. But Rose didn’t draft either player, so if he doesn’t view them as part of New York’s future, he may be more inclined to view them as sunk costs and take what he can get in a trade. On the other hand, if Rose wants to see what Thibodeau can get out of them, Ntilikina and Smith may get one more chance to prove they can be part of the organization’s plan going forward.

With two years left on his rookie deal, Knox isn’t at the same crossroads as the 2017 lottery picks, but after an extremely underwhelming sophomore season, he’s under pressure to show improvement in 2020/21 under Thibodeau. He’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension a year from now, but unless he takes major strides between now and then, he’s unlikely to get one.

As for Barrett, he showed promise as a rookie and is the best candidate – besides Mitchell Robinson – to be a long-term fixture in New York. However, Rose and Thibodeau will have to make it a priority to put him in a better position to succeed. The former Duke standout was surrounded by too many ball-dominant players rather than floor-spacers in 2019/20, limiting his ability to maximize his impact.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

August 17th, 2020 at 2:49pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020 NBA draft lottery is just three days away, having been rescheduled to Thursday, August 20 after being postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. The event could significantly impact the fate of several NBA franchises vying for the right to select top prospects such as Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, and James Wiseman.

This will be the second time that the NBA is using a new lottery format that has smoothed out the odds, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 pick from 25.0% to 14.0%. A year ago, the new format had an immediate impact — the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

For a full breakdown of the system, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject.

The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since a couple teams finished the season with identical records, which will impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new odds for 2020 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for instance, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
GSW 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
MIN 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1 – – – – – – –
ATL 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2 – – – – – –
DET 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6 – – – – –
NYK 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2 – – – –
CHI 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
CHA 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
WSH 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
PHX 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 18.9 1.2 >0 >0
SAS 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
SAC 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 – – – – – – – 86.1 7.6 0.1
NOP 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 – – – – – – – – 92.0 2.3
MEM 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

Notes:

  • The Grizzlies‘ pick will be sent to the Celtics unless it moves up into the top four.

The full pre-lottery draft order for 2020 can be found right here.

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2020 Pre-Lottery NBA Draft Order

August 17th, 2020 at 2:27pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted its draft tiebreakers on Monday, further cementing the draft order for 2020. While we’ll have to wait until this Thursday’s draft lottery to determine the exact order for this year’s event, we now know what most of the 60 selections look like.

Listed below is the pre-lottery 2020 NBA draft order. Each lottery team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick are noted in parentheses. We’ve also included notes for picks whose status remains up in the air — for example, the Grizzlies‘ first-round pick could still technically end up with either Memphis or the Celtics.

For teams with identical records, Monday’s tiebreakers only determined the first-round order — that order is reversed in the second round. As such, a couple second-round picks may hinge on next month’s lottery results.

For instance, even though the Kings won the tiebreaker vs. the Pelicans for the No. 12 spot in the lottery order, New Orleans could still leapfrog Sacramento in the lottery, in which case the Kings’ second-round pick would move ahead of the Pelicans’ second-rounder.

We’ll provided an updated list after the August 20 lottery, once the official draft order is set, but here’s the tentative 2020 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Golden State Warriors (14.0%)
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers (14.0%)
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves (14.0%)
  4. Atlanta Hawks (12.5%)
  5. Detroit Pistons (10.5%)
  6. New York Knicks (9.0%)
  7. Chicago Bulls (7.5%)
  8. Charlotte Hornets (6.0%)
  9. Washington Wizards (4.5%)
  10. Phoenix Suns (3.0%)
  11. San Antonio Spurs (2.0%)
  12. Sacramento Kings (1.3%)
  13. New Orleans Pelicans (1.2%)
  14. Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies) (0.5%)
    • Note: The Grizzlies will keep this pick if it moves up into the top four (2.4% chance).
  15. Orlando Magic
  16. Portland Trail Blazers
  17. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
  18. Dallas Mavericks
  19. Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
  20. Miami Heat
  21. Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
  22. Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
  23. Utah Jazz
  24. Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
  25. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
  26. Boston Celtics
  27. New York Knicks (from Clippers)
  28. Los Angeles Lakers
  29. Toronto Raptors
  30. Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Second Round:

  1. Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
  2. Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves
  4. Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
  5. Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
  6. Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
  7. Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
  8. New York Knicks (from Hornets)
  9. New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
  10. Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
  11. San Antonio Spurs
  12. New Orleans Pelicans
  13. Sacramento Kings
    • Note: Kings would swap places with Pelicans if New Orleans gets higher first-round pick than Sacramento via lottery.
  14. Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
  15. Orlando Magic
  16. Portland Trail Blazers
  17. Boston Celtics (from Nets)
  18. Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
  19. Philadelphia 76ers
  20. Atlanta Hawks (from Heat)
  21. Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
  22. Sacramento Kings (from Rockets)
  23. Oklahoma City Thunder
  24. Indiana Pacers
  25. Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
  26. Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
  27. Los Angeles Clippers
  28. Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
  29. Toronto Raptors
  30. New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)

Information from NBA.com was used in the creation of this post.

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Community Shootaround: First Round Playoff Predictions

August 17th, 2020 at 10:31am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA postseason, originally scheduled to get underway on April 18, will finally begin today, about four months later than anticipated. Although the coronavirus pandemic threw a wrench into the NBA’s plans for the end of the 2019/20 campaign, the league is now in a good position to finish its season at its Walt Disney World campus.

Of the eight first-round playoff series scheduled to begin on Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the most fascinating matchups can be found in the Western Conference. And no first-round series is considered more of a toss-up than the No. 4 Rockets against the No. 5 Thunder.

The two teams finished with identical 44-28 records, despite the fact that last July’s Russell Westbrook/Chris Paul swap was one in a series of moves that made it seem as if Houston was going all-in on the 2019/20 season while Oklahoma City was taking a step back. A quad strain has compromised Westbrook’s availability for the start of the series, which dampens the Westbrook vs. Paul subplot, but Houston remains the slight favorite at -160, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook (link via ESPN). In other words, you’d have to risk $160 on the Rockets in order to collect $100 if they win the series.

The next-tightest matchup, per Caesar’s, is also in the West, as the No. 3 Nuggets (-220) face the No. 6 Jazz. Utah is likely relieved not to have to face Houston in the first round after being dismantled by the Rockets in the last two postseasons. But the Jazz will enter the playoffs without Bojan Bogdanovic and Mike Conley available. While Conley – who is away for the birth of his child – should be back at some point during the series, Bogdanovic is out for the season due to wrist surgery and his absence will limit Utah’s upside — even if the Nuggets are still without a couple key players of their own (Gary Harris and Will Barton).

The No. 1 Lakers (-450) are solid favorites over the No. 8 Trail Blazers, as are the No. 2 Clippers (-550) vs. the No. 7 Mavericks. But both of those lower seeds are frisky — Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic are each capable of single-handedly leading their teams to a win or two, and neither L.A. team has been so dominant this season that we should assume either series will be a cakewalk.

Over in the East, there are a pair of series that oddsmakers assume will be a cakewalk. The No. 2 Raptors (-5,000) are huge favorites over the No. 7 Nets, while the No. 1 Bucks (-15,000) are absolutely massive favorites over the No. 8 Magic, per Caesar’s.

Milwaukee and Toronto look like two of the NBA’s best teams, while Brooklyn and Orlando have both been hit hard by injuries and finished the season with losing records. The Nets have at least played impressive ball during the restart, knocking off the Clippers and Bucks and nearly ruining Portland’s playoff chances. They look like a better bet than the Magic to make a top seed sweat a little.

Elsewhere in the East, the No. 3 Celtics (-400) are solid favorites over the No. 6 Sixers, and the No. 5 Heat (-320) are considered good bets to defeat the No. 4 Pacers. That Boston/Philadelphia series would have been a whole lot more intriguing if Ben Simmons were healthy — without him, it’s not clear if the 76ers will have an answer for Boston’s versatile offensive attack. But Joel Embiid has always had success vs. the C’s, so if he can stay healthy and have a big series, the Sixers could make things interesting.

The Pacers, meanwhile, would be a more intriguing upset pick if they had Domantas Sabonis available and if Victor Oladipo were a lock to be at full strength. The Heat, who won the season series 3-0, look like the safer pick, but this could still be the most competitive first-round series in the East.

What do you think? Do you expect any underdogs to make it out of the first round, or are you picking the favorites across the board? Are there any 1-8 or 2-7 matchups that you think could be more competitive than advertised? Which first-round series do you expect to be the most entertaining?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and your picks!

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