Hoops Rumors Originals

Details On Traded Draft Picks Protected In 2020

August 28th, 2020 at 2:49pm CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA completed its draft lottery last week, awarding the Timberwolves the No. 1 overall pick, it ensured that the full draft order for 2020 has now been established.

Of the 60 picks in this year’s draft, a total of 28 – nine in the first round and 19 in the second – have been traded from one team to another. However, that number could have been even higher if not for the protections that were applied to several traded picks.

In some cases, those traded draft picks will be rolled over to 2021 with identical protections. In other cases, teams have been awarded a different pick (or two) as a consolation for not receiving the protected 2020 pick. And in a couple instances, the obligation from one team another has simply been extinguished by virtue of this year’s protections.

Here’s a breakdown of the traded draft picks that were protected in 2020 and what will happen with them going forward:

First Round

Cavaliers’ 2020 first-round pick (top-10 protected) to Pelicans

Initially traded to Atlanta for Kyle Korver, the Cavaliers’ top-10 protected 2020 first-round pick was flipped by the Hawks to the Pelicans a year ago when Atlanta moved up to No. 4 to draft De’Andre Hunter.

Because the pick landed at No. 5 this year, the Cavaliers kept it. Instead of owing New Orleans a future first-rounder, Cleveland will send its unprotected 2021 and 2022 second-round picks to the Pelicans.

Jazz’s 2020 first-round pick (1-7 and 15-30 protection) to Grizzlies

Part of the Mike Conley trade, this pick was protected on either end of the first round, since the Jazz didn’t want to give up a high lottery selection, while the Grizzlies preferred not to receive a pick in the 20s. It was protected this year as a result of landing at No. 23.

The Jazz now owe the Grizzlies their 2021 first-round pick, with the same protections (1-7 and 15-30). If it doesn’t land between 8-14 next year, it will become simply top-six protected in 2022.

Warriors’ 2020 first-round pick (top-20 protected) to Nets

It became fairly obvious early in the season that this pick – included as part of the Kevin Durant/D’Angelo Russell sign-and-trade, had no chance of conveying. The Warriors’ first-rounder ended up at No. 2 overall.

The Nets will now have to wait five years to get a pick from the Warriors, who owe Brooklyn their unprotected 2025 second-round pick.

Second Round

Pacers’ 2020 second-round pick (45-60 protected) to Nets

The Nets are still waiting on this pick as a result of a 2016 trade which saw them trade Thaddeus Young for the first-round pick that became Caris LeVert. It was originally supposed to be a 2017 second-rounder, but has been protected since then — it landed at No. 54 this year.

The Pacers now owe the Nets their 2021 second-rounder with the same 45-60 protection. That protection will also apply in 2022. If it still hasn’t changed hands by then, Brooklyn will receive Indiana’s unprotected 2023 second-rounder.

Hawks’ 2020 second-round pick (top-55 protected) to Celtics

The Hawks owed Boston their top-55 protected second-round pick, but never really expected it to be conveyed. It was a placeholder in a 2019 Jabari Bird trade that saw Atlanta acquire some cash. Atlanta’s second-round pick this year is No. 34 and was instead sent to the Sixers, who would have received it if it fell anywhere between 31-55.

The Hawks’ obligation to the Celtics is now extinguished.

Trail Blazers’ 2020 second-round pick (top-55 protected) to Nets

Like the Atlanta/Boston pick, this was a placeholder pick, first traded way back in 2015 from the Trail Blazers to Orlando in exchange for Maurice Harkless. From there, it went to Cleveland in 2016, Atlanta in 2017, and Brooklyn in 2018 as part of the Hawks’ acquisition of Jeremy Lin.

Because the Trail Blazers’ pick, which landed at No. 46, was protected this year, their obligation to the Nets is now extinguished.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

August 27th, 2020 at 5:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Timberwolves only have about $75MM in fully guaranteed money on their books for 2020/21 so far, so they could theoretically create some cap room. But after accounting for James Johnson‘s player option ($16MM), along with cap holds for Juan Hernangomez ($9.96MM), Malik Beasley ($8.2MM), and their first-round picks (likely about $12.7MM combined), that cap room is nonexistent.

Minnesota figures to enter the offseason as an over-the-cap team, with the full mid-level exception (about $9.3MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.6MM) available.

Our full salary cap preview for the Timberwolves can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

James Johnson, player option: $16,047,100 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Jarred Vanderbilt ($1,663,861)
Jaylen Nowell ($1,517,981)
Naz Reid ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

Kelan Martin (expiring)
Jordan McLaughlin (expiring)

Free Agents:

Evan Turner (Bird)
Malik Beasley (RFA; Bird)
Juan Hernangomez (RFA; Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 1 overall pick
No. 17 overall pick

The Timberwolves lucked out in the lottery, nabbing the first overall pick for the second time in the last six years. The Wolves will also receive the Nets’ first-round pick, which was lottery-protected but landed at No. 17.

Second Round:

No. 33 overall pick

Minnesota is the only team picking between Nos. 31-40 that didn’t trade its second-round pick. It falls at No. 33.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. How will the Timberwolves use the No. 1 overall pick?

Having traded away their top-three protected 2021 first-round pick in February to acquire D’Angelo Russell, the Timberwolves may very well find themselves without a lottery selection a year from now. So securing the top pick in this year’s draft was a fortuitous turn of events for a franchise in need of a talent injection.

Unfortunately for president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas, there no Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, or LeBron James at the top of the 2020 draft class. With no consensus No. 1 prospect and no players who are locks to become franchise cornerstones, Minnesota faces a tough decision with that first overall pick.

Drafting for need usually isn’t the right move anywhere in the lottery, let alone at No. 1, but with Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns installed as their obvious building blocks at the point and in the middle, the Timberwolves would have to feel pretty confident about the fit if they were to take another point guard like LaMelo Ball or another big man like James Wiseman.

Going in that direction isn’t out of the question. Jonathan Givony of ESPN projects the Wolves to select Ball at No. 1 in his latest mock draft, noting that the youngster’s size will make it easy to pair him with another guard. Givony acknowledges that a Ball/Russell backcourt might be a disaster defensively, but suggests that no player in this year’s class has more star power than Lonzo Ball‘s youngest brother.

There’s another player who is viewed as a candidate for No. 1 though, and he might be a better match for Minnesota: Anthony Edwards. The former Georgia shooting guard is a talented scorer and has the strength, length, and quickness necessary to develop into a lockdown defender, ESPN’s Mike Schmitz writes in his scouting report.

Given his obvious fit on the wing alongside Russell and Towns, Edwards looks like the safest pick for the Wolves at this point. But this draft figures to be an unpredictable one, so nothing can be ruled out yet. I could even see Rosas trading down, if another team wants to move up to nab a player who isn’t atop the Wolves’ board. Such a deal could be a way to replace the 2021 first-round pick Minnesota traded away earlier this year.

2. How much will RFAs Malik Beasley and Juan Hernangomez cost?

When they sent Robert Covington to Houston in a four-team deadline deal in February, the Timberwolves chose to flip Houston’s 2020 first-round pick to Denver in order to land Beasley and Hernangomez.

Neither player had been all that impressive in 2019/20 up until that point, having been buried in the Nuggets’ rotation. But they made the Wolves look good over the next 14 games, right up until the season was suspended. Hernangomez contributed a solid 12.9 PPG and 7.3 RPG on .453/.420/.609 shooting in 29.4 minutes per contest, while Beasley was even better, with 20.7 PPG and 5.1 RPG on .472/.426/.750 shooting in 33.1 MPG.

The duo’s success was a mixed blessing for the Wolves, who will now be tasked with retaining both players in restricted free agency. Part of the reason the Nuggets were willing to move on from Beasley and Hernangomez was an understanding that they probably wouldn’t be willing to pay to re-sign them, but Minnesota is under more pressure to do so in order to make sure they recoup solid value from the Covington trade.

Few teams have cap room available, and those that do may turn to other free agents rather than trying to pry a pair of promising young restricted free agents away from a rebuilding team. But the Wolves will still probably have to pony up if they want to secure Beasley and Hernangomez for the long term. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the duo ends up costing a combined $25MM+ per year.

If the Wolves are uneasy about the financial commitment it will take to lock up either player, the club could explore a sign-and-trade. Those were popular a year ago for RFAs who wanted to change teams, allowing their old clubs to acquire draft picks or other assets in return for declining to exercise their right of first refusal.

3. How will the impending sale of the team affect the Wolves going forward?

Longtime Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor confirmed last month that he was exploring a sale of the franchise, and there appears to be momentum for former Grizzlies minority stakeholder Daniel Straus to emerge as the club’s new controlling owner.

Whether the next owner is Straus or someone else, we don’t know much about how they would run an NBA team. The most pressing question, of course, would be whether the new owner would commit to keeping the team in Minnesota long-term, but it seems unlikely Taylor would sell to anyone not willing to do so.

Beyond that issue, there would be plenty of other questions to answer. How much would the new owner be willing to spend on players, coaches, and executives from year to year? Would they be patient with a rebuilding process or push to contend sooner rather than later? Would they want to have a hand in basketball matters at all? Would they want to make any leadership changes, perhaps replacing Rosas and/or head coach Ryan Saunders?

No fan wants its favorite team to be run by an owner who has a desire to cut costs or overrule the team’s top basketball experts on key roster decisions. If and when Taylor sells, it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on how the new ownership group adjusts to the job.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

August 25th, 2020 at 8:30pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

Otto Porter Jr.‘s $28.5MM player option, which is a virtual lock to be exercised, should ensure that the Bulls remain over the cap during the 2020 offseason. Once that option is officially on the books, Chicago’s team salary will increase to $106MM in guaranteed money, even before accounting for cap holds for the team’s lottery pick and free agents.

The Bulls will also have the full mid-level exception (about $9.3MM) and the bi-annual exception ($3.6MM) available.

Our full salary cap preview for the Bulls can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Otto Porter Jr., player option: $28,489,239 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

None

Two-Way Contracts:

Adam Mokoka (expiring)
Max Strus (expiring)

Free Agents:

Kris Dunn (RFA; Bird)
Denzel Valentine (RFA; Bird)
Shaquille Harrison (RFA; Early Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 4 overall pick

The Bulls moved up three spots as a result of the draft lottery, claiming the No. 4 overall pick despite entering lottery night with the seventh-best odds.

Second Round:

No. 44 overall pick

The Bulls traded away their own second-round pick (No. 37), but acquired the Grizzlies’ selection, which will be No. 44.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Who will be the Bulls’ next head coach?

After a tumultuous year-and-a-half at the helm, Jim Boylen was let go this summer by new Bulls front office executives Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley. While it took a little longer than expected for the team to finalize that decision, it puts the new Bulls decision-makers in position to immediately place their stamp on the franchise with their own head coach, rather than making Boylen a lame duck for the next year.

Since Boylen’s ouster, names like Kenny Atkinson, Wes Unseld Jr., Darvin Ham, Stephen Silas, and David Vanterpool have been connected to the Chicago job. Even before a decision was made on Boylen, Ime Udoka and Adrian Griffin were rumored to be frontrunners for the position.

It’s a big, diverse group and it could get even bigger once the Bulls begin to formally interview candidates. However, most of the names have something in common — they’re experienced assistants without any head coaching experience themselves.

Atkinson is the one exception to the rule so far, but the former Nets head coach doesn’t represent a major deviation from the rest of the group. After all, he was brought in to help guide a rebuilding Brooklyn team. Once the club began making the transition from prioritizing player development to focusing on contending for a title, Atkinson was dismissed.

In replacing Boylen, the Bulls seem to be seeking an up-and-coming head coach who will focus on developing and connecting with the team’s young players, rather than a veteran who has experience dealing with stars and guiding playoff teams.

While that direction makes sense, it may increase the degree of difficulty for Karnisovas and Eversley, since their pick won’t necessarily have an extensive head coaching résumé to evaluate. It’s the duo’s first major decision and it will be important to get it right, so I expect the Bulls to take their time and do their homework on many candidates before finalizing a hire.

2. Which incumbent players are the new decision-makers most – and least – attached to?

The Bulls haven’t won more than 27 games in any of the last three seasons, but the roster that Karnisovas and Eversley are inheriting is hardly devoid of talent.

Zach LaVine has developed into one of the Eastern Conference’s top scorers (25.5 PPG in 2019/20). And in Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter, and Coby White, Chicago has the No. 7 overall picks from each of the last three drafts. Markkanen and Carter have been hampered by health issues and inconsistency, but all three of those players have shown promise since entering the NBA, and all three are 23 years old or younger.

Since taking the reins in Chicago, Karnisovas and Eversley have talked about placing a focus on development and looking to get the most out of the club’s young players — especially those who may have taken a step back last season. As such, it’s possible the team will stand relatively pat during this offseason and see what it can get out of those youngsters under a new head coach in 2020/21 before doing anything too drastic.

However, it’s also worth noting that the new decision-makers aren’t necessarily attached to any of those young, would-be cornerstones. This fall may not be the right time to move guys like Markkanen or Carter, since the Bulls would be selling low, but if the club gets an offer it likes for one of them or LaVine, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the front office pull the trigger.

Again, any major roster shake-up is probably unlikely until at least the 2021 deadline, but this will be a situation worth monitoring under the new regime.

3. Can the Bulls secure a long-term cornerstone with the No. 4 pick?

While it remains to be seen which of the Bulls’ returning players the new front office will commit to long-term, we can safely assume that the player the team drafts at No. 4 this fall will be given every opportunity to succeed over the next few years. It will be the first opportunity Karnisovas and Eversley have to acquire a potential future building block for the club, and – like the coaching hire – they’ll badly want to get it right.

With no prospects necessarily locked into the top three spots, we don’t know for sure which players will still be available at No. 4 for Chicago. But LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, and James Wiseman have most frequently been cited as contenders for the No. 1 spot, so let’s assume for now that those are the first three players drafted in 2020.

In that scenario, the Bulls would be picking from a group that includes wings Deni Avdija, Isaac Okoro, and Devin Vassell, guards Tyrese Haliburton and Killian Hayes, power forward Obi Toppin, and center Onyeka Okongwu.

Although I don’t believe Chicago should – or will – be drafting based on need, the idea of selecting one of those wings is intriguing. Otto Porter Jr. likely isn’t the Bulls’ long-term solution at small forward, so if the team is high on a player like Avdija, Okoro, or Vassell, it would be a great match. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic notes that Okoro’s ability to guard wings would make him a nice complement to LaVine and White.

Still, the Bulls will certainly go in another direction if they feel there’s a prospect with more upside. In his most recent mock draft, for instance, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony has Chicago selecting Toppin, observing that the National Player of the Year could play alongside either Markkanen or Carter.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Restart Edition

August 21st, 2020 at 5:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. With the first round of the playoffs ongoing at the Orlando campus, it’s time to examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors.

Jordan Clarkson, Jazz, 27, SG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $50MM deal in 2016
The late-December deal with the Cavaliers that sent Clarkson to Utah was one of the most impactful trades this season. Clarkson filled a much-needed role as a scorer off the bench for the Jazz. He has reinforced his value during the restart, particularly during the first-round series with Mike Conley leaving Orlando for the birth of a child. Clarkson averaged 22.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 3.0 APG in the first two playoff games against Denver and was a team-best +33 in Friday’s Game 3 win. Utah will certainly try to retain Clarkson but the Jazz will have competition for one of the league’s top reserves in the prime of his career.

Paul Millsap, Nuggets, 35, PF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $90MM deal in 2017
Michael Porter Jr. has been playing some small forward for Denver during the restart due to injuries but his future in the current NBA is at the four, the spot Millsap has occupied when healthy. Millsap’s performances in the restart have been rather forgettable – 10 points or less in five of seven seeding games, along with 21 total points and seven rebounds in 65 minutes during the first three games of the Utah series. Perhaps the Nuggets will bring back Millsap if he’s willing to accept a modest contract and a bench role. It’s hard to see any other team viewing the big man as a starter at this stage of his career, so interest in him may be limited.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Nets, 25, SG (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2.48MM deal in 2019
Luwawu-Cabarrot has been one of the big surprises in Orlando. The Nets staggered into Orlando with a depleted roster, but the performances of Luwawu-Cabarrot and other unsung players allowed them to win five seeding games. He scored 24 or more points in three seeding games and has been a major factor off the bench against Toronto in the Nets’ first-round playoff series, averaging 21.5 PPG in the first two games while making 47.4% of his 3-point attempts before the Raptors slowed him down on Friday. His $1.8MM salary for next season is not guaranteed, but he has forced Brooklyn’s hand to retain him beyond this season.

Trey Burke, Mavericks, 27, PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $229K deal in 2020
Burke filled a roster spot this summer with Willie Cauley-Stein opting out of the restart. Though the Mavs still had other guard options, Burke has played steady minutes off the bench, averaging 12.0 PPG and 3.8 APG in the eight seeding games. He impacted Game 2 of the playoff series against the Los Angeles Clippers, scoring 16 points in 18 minutes. If nothing else, the 6-foot point man who has played for five organizations proved this summer he belongs on an NBA roster as a second-unit floor leader.

Jeff Green, Rockets, 33, PF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $696K deal in 2020
Raise your hand if you thought Green would be an impact player this postseason after the Jazz lopped him off the roster to add a G League standout. The Rockets rescued him off the scrap heap and he’s been a marvelous fit in Mike D’Antoni’s small ball system. Green scored in double digits in all but one of the seeding games and he’s been a huge factor against Oklahoma City in the playoffs, averaging 18.5 PPG and 6.5 RPG in 35.0 MPG through two games. If D’Antoni remains in Houston beyond this season, Green will likely re-sign there. If not, the journeyman has earned another opportunity to wear an NBA uniform.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 NBA Draft Picks By Team

August 21st, 2020 at 8:42am CST by Luke Adams

In addition to claiming the top three spots in the 2020 NBA draft based on this year’s lottery results, the Timberwolves, Warriors, and Hornets are three of eight teams that will own more than two draft picks this fall.

As our full 2020 draft order shows, the Sixers lead the way with five picks, while the Kings, Pelicans, and Celtics have four apiece. Like Minnesota, Golden State, and Charlotte, the Knicks also hold three selections. On the other end of the spectrum, the Rockets are the only team without a 2020 draft pick.

To present a clearer picture of which teams are most – and least – stocked with picks for the 2020 NBA draft, we’ve rounded up all 60 picks by team in the space below. Let’s dive in…

Teams with more than two picks:

Philadelphia 76ers (5): 21, 34, 36, 49, 58
Sacramento Kings (4): 12, 35, 43, 52
New Orleans Pelicans (4): 13, 39, 42, 60
Boston Celtics (4): 14, 26, 30, 47
Minnesota Timberwolves (3): 1, 17, 33
Golden State Warriors (3): 2, 48, 51
Charlotte Hornets (3): 3, 32, 56
New York Knicks (3): 8, 27, 38

Teams with two picks:

Chicago Bulls: 4, 44
Atlanta Hawks: 6, 50
Washington Wizards: 9, 37
San Antonio Spurs: 11, 41
Orlando Magic: 15, 45
Portland Trail Blazers: 16, 46
Dallas Mavericks: 18, 31
Brooklyn Nets: 19, 55
Oklahoma City Thunder: 25, 53
Toronto Raptors: 29, 59

Teams with one pick:

Cleveland Cavaliers: 5
Detroit Pistons: 7
Phoenix Suns: 10
Miami Heat: 20
Denver Nuggets: 22
Utah Jazz: 23
Milwaukee Bucks: 24
Los Angeles Lakers: 28
Memphis Grizzlies: 40
Indiana Pacers: 54
Los Angeles Clippers: 57

Teams with no picks:

Houston Rockets

Full 2020 NBA Draft Order

August 20th, 2020 at 8:29pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2020 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on November 18, or in the days leading up to draft night — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2020 NBA draft order:

First Round:

Minnesota Timberwolves
Golden State Warriors
Charlotte Hornets
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Atlanta Hawks
Detroit Pistons
New York Knicks
Washington Wizards
Phoenix Suns
San Antonio Spurs
Sacramento Kings
New Orleans Pelicans
Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
Orlando Magic
Houston Rockets (from Trail Blazers)
Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
Dallas Mavericks
Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
Miami Heat
Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
New York Knicks (from Jazz)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Pacers via Bucks)
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
Boston Celtics
Utah Jazz (from Clippers via Knicks)
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Lakers)
Toronto Raptors
Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Second Round:

Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Hawks via Sixers)
Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
Utah Jazz (from Hornets via Knicks)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
San Antonio Spurs
New Orleans Pelicans
Sacramento Kings
Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
Milwaukee Bucks (from Magic)
Portland Trail Blazers
Boston Celtics (from Nets)
Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
Philadelphia 76ers
Atlanta Hawks (from Heat)
Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
Sacramento Kings (from Rockets)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
Los Angeles Clippers
Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
Toronto Raptors
Milwaukee Bucks (via Pelicans)

2020 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

August 20th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020 NBA draft lottery will take place on Thursday night prior to Game 2 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Lakers and Trail Blazers. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:30 pm central time.

This year’s draft class doesn’t feature a consensus No. 1 pick like Zion Williamson, but the team that wins the 2020 lottery will get its pick of an intriguing group of top prospects that includes LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, and James Wiseman, among others.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

This year’s draft lottery features the 14 teams that didn’t make the playoffs, sorted by their records as of March 11, the date the 2019/20 season was suspended. The top 14 picks in the 2020 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

Golden State Warriors
Cleveland Cavaliers
Minnesota Timberwolves
Atlanta Hawks
Detroit Pistons
New York Knicks
Chicago Bulls
Charlotte Hornets
Washington Wizards
Phoenix Suns
San Antonio Spurs
Sacramento Kings
New Orleans Pelicans
Boston Celtics (from Memphis Grizzlies)
- Note: The Grizzlies will keep this pick if it moves up into the top four (2.4% chance).

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Warriors, Cavaliers, and Timberwolves have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall, and a 52.1% shot at a top-four pick.

From there, the Hawks (48.1%), Pistons (42.1%), Wizards (37.2%), and Bulls (32.0%) have the best odds to land in the top four.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

Only one trade will have an impact on Thursday night’s lottery results. Here are the details on that deal:

Celtics/Grizzlies

The Celtics own the Grizzlies‘ top-six protected first-round pick, so they’ll receive that selection if it’s No. 7 or lower. There’s a 97.6% chance that will happen, since Memphis ranks 14th in the lottery standings.

The pick will either land at No. 14 or move into the top four, in which case the Grizzlies would keep it. There’s only a 2.4% chance that will happen, but Memphis did move up several spots in the lottery a year ago — perhaps the team can get lucky again in 2020.

In the unlikely event that the Grizzlies keep the pick this year, they’d owe the Celtics their unprotected first-round pick in 2021.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s draft lottery will be a virtual event, so representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams will be joining the broadcast remotely.

Those reps are as follows, according to a press release issued by the NBA:

Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry
Cleveland Cavaliers: Brad Daugherty (former player)
Minnesota Timberwolves: D’Angelo Russell
Atlanta Hawks: Jami Gertz (co-owner)
Detroit Pistons: Troy Weaver (general manager)
New York Knicks: Leon Rose (president of basketball operations)
Chicago Bulls: Arturas Karnisovas (executive VP of basketball operations)
Charlotte Hornets: Devonte’ Graham
Washington Wizards: Rui Hachimura
Phoenix Suns: James Jones (general manager)
San Antonio Spurs: Peter J. Holt (team owner)
Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox
New Orleans Pelicans: Trajan Langdon (general manager)
Memphis Grizzlies: Elliot Perry (minority owner/director of player support)

Lottery Format:

This will be the second year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

One year is too small a sample size to draw any conclusions about the new format, but 2019’s results showed that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

A year ago, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eight, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. If that were to happen again this year, it’d mean the Bulls at No. 1, the Hornets at No. 2, and the Spurs at No. 4.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Lakers’ Postseason Outlook

August 20th, 2020 at 12:29pm CST by Luke Adams

A dominant regular season leading up to the stoppage of the NBA’s season in March all but locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference for the Lakers entering the summer restart. However, the team hasn’t quite looked like itself since play resumed. LeBron James‘ squad went 3-5 during the seeding games and dropped Game 1 of its first-round series to the No. 8 Trail Blazers.

The Lakers’ shooting doomed them in Game 1. Despite out-rebounding the Blazers, winning the turnover battle, and moving the ball better, the Lakers just couldn’t put the ball in the basket, finishing with an abysmal shooting line of .351/.156/.645.

L.A. still only lost by seven points, and the team’s shooting won’t be that bad every game. But beyond James and Anthony Davis, many of the Lakers’ secondary scorers are streaky, including Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who went a combined 4-of-21 from the floor on Tuesday. Additionally, Avery Bradley‘s absence means the club is without its top perimeter defender — that’s not insignificant in a series against Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

In a discussion about the Lakers’ situation today, ESPN’s writers expressed mixed opinions on whether it’s too early to start worrying about the team. As Kevin Pelton points out, L.A. is still getting the same quality shots it got during the regular season, and it seems likely those shots will start dropping at some point. However, Nick Friedell and Andre Snellings view the Lakers’ roster as top-heavy and have questions about the supporting cast.

Neither Friedell nor Royce Young necessarily expects the Lakers to fall in the first round to the eighth-seeded Blazers. However, both ESPN writers expressed skepticism that L.A. should still be considered a prime championship frontrunner.

It’s worth noting that even before the Lakers’ Game 1 loss to Portland, sports books had generally started listing the Clippers as title favorites over the Lakers, with some moving the Bucks ahead as well, per David Purdum of ESPN.

What do you think? Has your opinion of the Lakers changed at all since the restart began? Do you expect them to start firing on all cylinders again any day now? How confident do you feel right now in forecasting a Finals appearance – or win – for the Lakers?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

August 17th, 2020 at 3:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

The Knicks have seven players with non-guaranteed (or partially guaranteed) contracts or team options for next season, totaling nearly $50MM. Their decisions on those players will go a long ways toward dictating their cap flexibility for the coming offseason.

Assuming at least a couple of the more expensive players are let go – including Bobby Portis ($15.75MM) and Wayne Ellington ($8MM) – New York is in position to open up a decent chunk of cap room — perhaps in the $25-30MM range.

Our full salary cap preview for the Knicks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Bobby Portis, team option: $15,750,000 (Oct. 17 deadline)
Theo Pinson, team option: $1,701,593 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Taj Gibson ($9,450,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
Wayne Ellington ($8,000,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
Elfrid Payton ($8,000,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
Reggie Bullock ($4,200,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
Mitchell Robinson ($1,663,861)

Two-Way Contracts:

Kenny Wooten (expires in 2021)
Jared Harper (expiring)

Free Agents:

Maurice Harkless (Bird)
Damyean Dotson (RFA; Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 6 overall pick (pending lottery results)
No. 27 overall pick

The Knicks have the sixth-best lottery odds, but their most likely pick is No. 7 (29.6%). They have a 9.0% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 37.2% chance at a top-four selection. No. 6 (8.6%), No. 8 (20.6%), and No. 9 (3.8%) are also in play, while No. 10 (0.2%) is an extreme long shot.

The Knicks will also receive the Clippers’ first-round pick, which landed at No. 27.

Second Round:

No. 38 overall pick

The Knicks traded away their own second-round pick (No. 36), but acquired the Hornets’ selection, which will be No. 38.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What sort of impact will the Knicks’ new leadership have?

The Knicks have undergone a major overhaul off the court in 2020. Veteran player agent Leon Rose was hired to head up the team’s basketball operations department, with Frank Zanin and Walt Perrin coming aboard as assistant general managers and William “World Wide Wes” Wesley being named the club’s executive VP/senior basketball advisor.

The first major task the new-look front office faced was hiring a permanent head coach, and the group settled on Tom Thibodeau, who has six postseason appearances and four playoff series wins under his belt as a head coach in Chicago and Minnesota.

There has been no shortage of turnover within the Knicks’ leadership ranks since the team last appeared in the playoffs in 2013. Thibodeau is the seventh head coach since then, and the front office has been overseen by several executives in recent years, including Steve Mills, Scott Perry, and Phil Jackson.

None of those coaches or execs have had much success in New York, and one school of thought suggests that team owner James Dolan is to blame. As long as Dolan is running the show, the theory goes, the Knicks will be incapable of building a winning culture and becoming a desirable landing spot for NBA stars.

Dolan may not be the ideal NBA team owner, but he has mostly avoided meddling in basketball matters in recent years, and he can’t be blamed for the majority of the questionable signings, draft picks, and trades the Knicks have made during that time. The right front office and head coach should be able to succeed in spite of Dolan, and the law of averages suggests that the franchise should – at some point – stumble upon the right combination.

Can Rose and Thibodeau be that “right combination”? The Knicks are hopeful that Rose’s decades of experience dealing with players and building relationships will translate into success in roster building and free agent recruiting. And Thibodeau is an experienced head coach who is liked and respected by a number of veteran stars around the league. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, but there’s at least some reason for optimism that this president/coach pairing can be more effective than the team’s recent duos.

2. Will the Knicks take a different approach with cap room this time around?

A year ago, the Knicks entered the offseason with enough cap space available to sign two maximum-salary free agents. But they were unable to convince any of the top players on the market to sign with them, and instead used the majority of their cap room to sign solid but unspectacular veterans to deals with no more than one fully guaranteed season (Julius Randle, who received two fully guaranteed seasons on his three-year contract, was the exception).

The thinking was that those veterans could help the Knicks compete for a playoff spot, then if things didn’t work out, they could be shopped for draft picks or young players at the trade deadline. New York was never in the playoff race though, and the only veteran who drew considerable interest at the deadline was Marcus Morris, who was almost an accidental signing last July — he received most of the Knicks’ remaining cap room after pulling out of a verbal agreement with the Spurs.

The Knicks can’t force star free agents to sign with them, and using their cap room to invest in long-term deals for second- or third-tier players would be ill-advised. But there were other ways to maximize their cap space, and there will be again this year, as long as the club sheds some of those 2019 signees without full guarantees for ’20/21.

The trade market offers one such avenue. A year ago, the Clippers’ willingness to take on Maurice Harkless’ $11MM expiring contract earned them a first-round pick along with a player who was a key part of their rotation until he was flipped at the trade deadline. The Knicks didn’t take advantage of any similar trade opportunities with their cap room in 2019, but they could look to do so in 2020 if there are no free agents who catch their eye.

Simply accommodating a salary-dump or two could allow New York to acquire some extra draft capital, but the team could get more ambitious than that. If the Knicks are willing to take on multiyear money, they could target high-priced impact players such as Chris Paul or Blake Griffin. Those guys likely aren’t part of their teams’ long-term plans and wouldn’t require a massive return, given their exorbitant salaries.

I’m a little skeptical that the new front office will want to go that route though, since it would mean compromising the team’s cap flexibility for 2021 for stop-gap veterans. The Knicks will want a shot at the top players in next year’s class, which will probably mean using this year’s room to sign short-term deals or to acquire expiring contracts.

3. What do the Knicks have in their former lottery picks?

Among the Knicks’ returning players, there are four who were top-10 picks in the last three NBA drafts: Frank Ntilikina (No. 8 in 2017), Dennis Smith Jr. (No. 9 in ’17), Kevin Knox (No. 9 in ’18), and RJ Barrett (No. 3 in ’19).

This will be a crucial year for all four, but especially for Ntilikina and Smith, who are entering the final season of their respective rookie contracts. Ntilikina is a strong defender whose offensive game remains extremely limited, while Smith’s shooting struggles have held him back. It seems safe to assume that neither will receive a rookie scale extension this offseason — the question is whether either will begin the season with a new team.

The Knicks have been unwilling to sell low on Ntilikina in the past and didn’t end up moving Smith at this season’s deadline. But Rose didn’t draft either player, so if he doesn’t view them as part of New York’s future, he may be more inclined to view them as sunk costs and take what he can get in a trade. On the other hand, if Rose wants to see what Thibodeau can get out of them, Ntilikina and Smith may get one more chance to prove they can be part of the organization’s plan going forward.

With two years left on his rookie deal, Knox isn’t at the same crossroads as the 2017 lottery picks, but after an extremely underwhelming sophomore season, he’s under pressure to show improvement in 2020/21 under Thibodeau. He’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension a year from now, but unless he takes major strides between now and then, he’s unlikely to get one.

As for Barrett, he showed promise as a rookie and is the best candidate – besides Mitchell Robinson – to be a long-term fixture in New York. However, Rose and Thibodeau will have to make it a priority to put him in a better position to succeed. The former Duke standout was surrounded by too many ball-dominant players rather than floor-spacers in 2019/20, limiting his ability to maximize his impact.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

August 17th, 2020 at 2:49pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020 NBA draft lottery is just three days away, having been rescheduled to Thursday, August 20 after being postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. The event could significantly impact the fate of several NBA franchises vying for the right to select top prospects such as Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, and James Wiseman.

This will be the second time that the NBA is using a new lottery format that has smoothed out the odds, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 pick from 25.0% to 14.0%. A year ago, the new format had an immediate impact — the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

For a full breakdown of the system, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject.

The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since a couple teams finished the season with identical records, which will impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new odds for 2020 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for instance, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
GSW	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
CLE	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
MIN	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
ATL	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.8	2.2	–	–	–	–	–	–
DET	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.8	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
NYK	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.6	20.6	3.8	0.2	–	–	–	–
CHI	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
CHA	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0	–	–
WSH	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	50.7	25.9	3	0.1	>0	–
PHX	3	3.3	3.6	4	–	–	–	–	–	65.9	18.9	1.2	>0	>0
SAS	2	2.2	2.4	2.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	77.6	12.6	0.4	>0
SAC	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	86.1	7.6	0.1
NOP	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	92.0	2.3
MEM	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97.6

Notes:

The Grizzlies‘ pick will be sent to the Celtics unless it moves up into the top four.

The full pre-lottery draft order for 2020 can be found right here.

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