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Poll: Who Will Win Clippers/Nuggets Game 7?

September 14th, 2020 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

After the Clippers‘ Game 4 win over the Nuggets last Wednesday, an all-L.A. showdown in the Western Conference Finals appeared to be an inevitability. The Nuggets had mustered just 85 points in their Game 4 loss, Michael Porter Jr. was publicly griping about the team’s offensive approach, and the odds of Denver once again overcoming a 3-1 deficit were remote.

The Nuggets haven’t rolled over though, erasing 16- and 19-point Clippers leads in Games 5 and 6 respectively to push the series to 3-3 and set up a Game 7 on Tuesday. As was the case in the first round against Utah, Denver has been at its best when facing elimination, with all the pressure on the opponent to close things out.

If the Clippers can’t close things out, it would be another devastating collapse for a franchise that’s 0-7 all-time in series-clinching games to advance to the Western Finals, per Jovan Buha of The Athletic. Led by All-Star forwards Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the club has been considered one of the NBA’s top title contenders all season long and entered the series as overwhelming favorites.

L.A. continues to be heavily favored in Game 7 (BetOnline.ag lists the Clippers at -7.5), but the Nuggets have done an excellent job holding the Clips’ supporting cast in check this series. Besides Leonard and George, no Clipper is averaging over 11.5 points per game. Lou Williams (.368/.130/.769 shooting) has struggled badly with his shot, while Sixth Man of the Year winner Montrezl Harrell has posted a dismal -11.3 net rating in his minutes.

The Clippers have had a knack this season for flipping the switch and coming up big when they need to after disappointing showings. But in a Game 7, there’s little room for error. If Nikola Jokic and/or Jamal Murray have big games, L.A. will need Leonard and George to match the Nuggets star(s) — and the Clippers would probably love to see at least one or two role players step up as well.

What do you think? Will the Clippers ultimately advance to the Western Finals as we all expected after Game 4? Or can the Nuggets pull off the major upset, coming back from a 3-1 hole for a second consecutive series?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Playoff Edition

September 11th, 2020 at 8:58pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. With the playoffs ongoing at the Orlando campus, it’s time to examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors.

Rajon Rondo, Lakers, 34, PG (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $5.2MM deal in 2019

Just when it seems that Rondo’s career is winding down, he reinforces how effective he can be when he’s healthy. Rondo was an afterthought when play resumes, as he was still recovering from a busted right hand. Coach Frank Vogel didn’t hesitate to give Rondo a large role once he was ready to play again in the conference semifinals. Rondo piled up 10 points, nine assists and five steals in the Lakers’ Game 2 win over Houston and 21 points and nine assists in Game 3. He came up two assists shy of a triple-double in Game 4. Rondo has a $2.62MM player option for next season. He’s given himself the flexibility of opting out and getting a better offer in free agency.

Jae Crowder, Heat, 30, SF (Up) – Signed to a five-year, $35MM deal in 2015

Crowder has played a major role in the Heat’s surprising run to the Eastern Conference semifinals. His defense against Giannis Antetokounmpo and 3-point shooting were instrumental as Miami knocked off the top seed. He averaged 15.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 2.2 APG in 33.6 MPG and made 43.2% of his shots during the conference semifinals. When Miami acquired Crowder from the Grizzlies before the trade deadline, it was assumed Andre Iguodala would make the biggest impact. Instead, Crowder has re-established his value. He’ll attract plenty of attention on the free agent market and could get a full mid-level from a playoff contender.

Mason Plumlee, Nuggets, 30, C (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $41MM deal in 2017

Plumlee got steady playing time as Nikola Jokic’s backup during the regular season, averaging 7.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 2.5 APG in 17.3 MPG. As the playoffs have progressed, Plumlee’s minutes have plummeted and so has his confidence. Even with his six-point outing in Game 5 against the Clippers on Friday, the big man is averaging more fouls (2.2) than points (1.6) in 10.3 MPG uring the postseason. That, plus the fact Plumlee doesn’t stretch defenses, complicates his ability to find a home in unrestricted free agency this offseason. Plumlee will probably be staring at veteran’s minimum offers, a far cry from what he received three years ago.

Stanley Johnson, Raptors, 24, SF (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $7.4MM deal in 2019

Johnson’s representatives did their client a big favor by securing a player option on the second year of his contract. It would be foolhardy for Johnson to pass up the guaranteed $3.8MM and test the free agent waters, considering he’s spent most of the season at the end of Toronto’s bench. Johnson’s postseason minutes have consisted of three late-game appearances in blowouts. He wasn’t in the rotation throughout the regular season, either. Johnson was the eighth pick of the 2015 draft and his first team, Detroit, is still lamenting the fact it picked him instead of Devin Booker, Myles Turner or Justise Winslow.

Brad Wanamaker, Celtics, 31, PG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $1.44MM deal in 2019

Coaches often shorten their rotations during the postseason but Wanamaker has continued to receive steady bench minutes from coach Brad Stevens. He’s averaged 5.8 PPG and 1.7 APG in 17.8 MPG and made the most of his limited 3-point opportunities (52.6%). Wanamaker, who spent most of his career overseas, re-signed with the Celtics last season on a minimum deal. He’s a restricted free agent but his qualifying offer of $1.82MM is peanuts by NBA standards. He’s improved his chances of the Celtics extending that offer, unless they have their eyes on another free agent point guard to back up Kemba Walker.

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Community Shootaround: Pacers’ Coaching Search

September 11th, 2020 at 8:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Shortly after the Pacers parted ways last month with Nate McMillan, president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard spoke about wanting the team’s head coaching search to “start with a big pool, then get down smaller and smaller.” Based on reports this week, it sounds like Pritchard is delivering on that promise.

On Wednesday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski identified 14 initial candidates for the Pacers’ head coaching job. He later added a 15th, reporting that former Finals MVP Chauncey Billups is also receiving consideration.

Pritchard and the Pacers will be seeking a coach who has a “modern approach” to the game and an ability to connect with younger players. Even with that criteria in mind, it’s hard to know which of the team’s initial candidates may make the strongest impression.

A number of the candidates being interviewed by the Pacers – including David Vanterpool, Nate Tibbetts, Will Hardy, Becky Hammon, Stephen Silas, Jamahl Mosley, Darvin Ham, Ime Udoka, and Pat Delany – are experienced assistants who have interviewed for other head coaching jobs. It’s possible one of them will stand out during the process and make the Pacers comfortable with hiring a first-time head coach.

Other assistants on Indiana’s list, including Charles Lee, Chris Quinn, and Dan Craig, may be a bit more under the radar, having not been linked to many – or any – head coaching jobs in the past, so they should probably be considered dark-horse candidates.

Dave Joerger and Jacque Vaughn are the two candidates who have previously held head coaching jobs. Joerger’s on-court results in Memphis and Sacramento were actually pretty solid, but he clashed at times with players and executives during those stops. Vaughn, meanwhile, overachieved with a depleted Brooklyn team this summer in Orlando, but was passed over by the Nets for their permanent job.

Billups is a wild card in the Pacers’ process. According to Wojnarowski, people around the league have long believed that the former Pistons guard would land a significant role with an NBA organization due to his leadership style and “basketball savvy.” But he has never even served as an assistant, so it remains to be seen if the Pacers would be comfortable rolling the dice on him.

Another wild card is current Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni, who was the first name connected to Indiana on the day the team fired McMillan. D’Antoni still has a job, and GM Daryl Morey recently spoke about wanting to retain the veteran coach.

However, D’Antoni’s contract is up, and if his Rockets are dispatched by the Lakers in Game 5 on Saturday with a fourth straight loss, it would end the season on a sour note. It’s possible he and the Rockets wouldn’t be as enthusiastic about a new deal at that point, freeing him up to join a team like the Pacers, who would surely welcome his free-wheeling offense.

What do you think? Is there a candidate on the Pacers’ current list who stands out to you as an obvious choice? Are there any candidates not on their list that you think they should be considering? Who do you expect to become Indiana’s next head coach?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs

September 11th, 2020 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the San Antonio Spurs.

Salary Cap Outlook

Unless DeMar DeRozan unexpectedly opts out and the Spurs don’t re-sign Jakob Poeltl and/or Bryn Forbes, the odds of the team creating any cap room are slim. On the other hand, bringing back DeRozan, Poeltl, and Forbes might put San Antonio into luxury-tax territory unless the club cuts costs elsewhere.

I don’t expect Spurs ownership to pay the tax for the current roster, so perhaps the team will let Poeltl or Forbes walk or trade one of its many veterans on expiring contracts. Depending on certain roster decisions, San Antonio could have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) available, but may ultimately be limited to just the taxpayer MLE ($5.72MM).

Our full salary cap preview for the Spurs can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • DeMar DeRozan, player option: $27,739,975 (Oct. 13 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 11 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 41 overall pick

The Spurs don’t make a habit of trading away draft picks – or stockpiling extra ones – so it comes as no surprise that their only two selections in the 2020 draft are their own.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Will the Spurs run it back again with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge?

DeRozan and Aldridge were as efficient as ever on offense in 2019/20. DeRozan’s .531 FG% was easily a career high, while Aldridge enjoyed the best three-point shooting season of his career (.389 3PT% with 1.2 makes per game).

However, DeRozan is now 31 years old and Aldridge is 35. Both players are entering potential contract years, with DeRozan considered likely to exercise his $27.7MM player option for 2020/21. And San Antonio is coming off a 32-39 season — that’s the team’s worst record and the first time it has missed the playoffs since 1997.

On top of all that, the Spurs reportedly shopped Aldridge at this year’s trade deadline, and there were rumblings shortly thereafter that DeRozan wasn’t thrilled with his situation in San Antonio. In other words, all signs point to the team considering the idea of seeing what it can get for its two veterans on the trade market this offseason and handing the reins to its young up-and-comers.

Still, the Spurs have never really shown a taste for making biggest splashes on the trade market unless their hand is forced, as it was in the case of Kawhi Leonard. And the aforementioned report which said the club shopped Aldridge at the deadline also noted that rival teams believed San Antonio’s asking price was far too high. It may be difficult for the Spurs to extract a ton of value for DeRozan at $27.7MM or Aldridge at $24MM.

Gregg Popovich‘s status is also an X-factor here. He turns 72 years old in January and presumably doesn’t plan to coach the Spurs for a whole lot longer. Would a pivot to the team’s youth be what San Antonio’s longtime head coach and president of basketball operations has in mind for his final year(s)?

2. Is this Gregg Popovich’s last year with the Spurs?

While we’re on the subject, it’s worth considering what exactly Popovich’s future holds, since it could have an impact on how the Spurs approach the next year or two.

In recent years, there had been a general perception – unconfirmed by Popovich – that the Spurs’ head coach would stick around through 2020, then coach Team USA at the Tokyo Olympics as a possible last hurrah.

The coronavirus pandemic has complicated matters. Not only have those Olympics been postponed until 2021, but there’s uncertainty about whether NBA players and coaches will even be able to fully participate, since a delayed ’20/21 season could very well overlap with the rescheduled Olympics.

Assuming the NBA can figure out a plan to either finish its season before the Olympics or include a break in its schedule to accommodate them, it seems likely that Popovich will still coach Team USA as long as he can safely do so. And it sounds as if the Spurs expect Popovich back on their sidelines for the 2020/21 season.

While it may look a little different than what we initially envisioned, perhaps the original theory – that Popovich will coach the Spurs up until the Olympics and then call it a career after the Tokyo games – is still in play.

Of course, even if the upcoming season is Popovich’s last, it’s possible it won’t have a major impact on the franchise’s roster decisions. It probably wouldn’t fit Popovich’s style to seek out any sort of win-now moves for his final go-round — I could just as easily see him embracing a partial rebuild before handing things off to a successor such as Becky Hammon, Will Hardy, or Tim Duncan.

Either way, Popovich has had such a hand in shaping the Spurs’ culture over the last 25 years that it will be fascinating to see how the team transitions out of his tenure and looks to carry over that culture to a new era.

3. Will Jakob Poeltl and Bryn Forbes be back?

Poeltl, who was one of the players the Spurs acquired in the Leonard blockbuster, will be a restricted free agent this offseason and is entering his age-25 season. Forbes, who just turned 27, has been a full-time starter for San Antonio in each of the last two seasons.

As I noted above, re-signing both players to market-value deals would potentially put the Spurs in tax territory if no cost-cutting roster moves follow. Still, I’d be a little surprised if the team lets either player get away.

Poeltl’s numbers per 36 minutes (11.5 rebounds, 2.9 blocks) show his value as a rebounder and rim protector, and it feels as if he has more room to grow. The Spurs’ front office will want to recoup as much value as it can from the trade that helped send the Raptors to a championship. With the ability to match any offer sheet for Poeltl, San Antonio should retain him.

As for Forbes, he has been one of the Spurs’ most reliable three-point shooters over the last two seasons, knocking down 40.8% of his attempts during that stretch as the club ranked 30th and 28th in three-point tries.

San Antonio’s backcourt is loaded with young players, but Forbes is capable of sliding up to the three and playing alongside a pair of guards. Since he’ll be unrestricted, there’s no guarantee he won’t look for a new deal elsewhere, but the Spurs have a history of overpaying a little to retain their own guys if they really want them back.

Assuming both Poeltl and Forbes are re-signed, the most logical way for the Spurs to shed some money would be to move one of their veterans on expiring contracts. Besides DeRozan and Aldridge, Rudy Gay ($14.5MM) and Patty Mills ($13.3MM) would also fit that bill.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Five 2020/21 Player Option Decisions To Watch

September 11th, 2020 at 12:11pm CST by Luke Adams

Based on the limited spending ability that many teams around the NBA will have in free agency this offseason, the general belief is that most veterans who have player options for the 2020/21 season will pick up those options, taking the guaranteed money rather than rolling the dice on the open market.

In many cases, that decision is a no-brainer — Hornets forward Nicolas Batum isn’t about to turn down his $27MM+ option to try his luck in free agency. However, there are several players who will have trickier decisions. In those cases, the player’s option salary might be in the neighborhood of his projected value in free agency, incentivizing him to see if he can do better in free agency.

Alternately, a player might decide that declining an option and taking a small pay cut for the 2020/21 season is worth it in order to secure a longer-term deal. Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas took this path a year ago, passing on a $17.6MM option in favor of a three-year contract worth $15MM per year.

Today, we’re taking a closer look at five players whose option decisions won’t necessarily be simple ones. Let’s dive in…

  1. Evan Fournier, Magic ($17,150,000): If not for the coronavirus pandemic, Fournier’s free agency would have been well-timed, as he’s coming off perhaps his best season as a pro (18.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, .467/.399/.818 shooting). Even if he can’t secure a raise, Fournier could be a good candidate for a Valanciunas-esque multiyear deal that greatly increases his future guarantee while locking him into an annual salary below $17.15MM. But there aren’t many teams that have the cap room to accommodate such a deal, and I’m not convinced Orlando wants to keep making long-term commitments to veterans from its middle-of-the-pack squad after signing Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross to four-year deals.
  2. Jerami Grant, Nuggets ($9,346,153): After a slow start in Denver, Grant emerged as a key contributor for the Nuggets, averaging 12.0 PPG with a .389 3PT% and strong, versatile defense. If he opts out, there should be teams willing to pay him the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which will work out to about $40MM over four years. The question will be whether Grant, who is still just 26 years old, wants to wait until 2021 to pursue a long-term contract, in the hopes that more teams will have money to throw around at that point. If the Nuggets or a team with cap room shows a willingness to give him a multiyear deal exceeding the MLE this year, that might be his best bet.
  3. Avery Bradley, Lakers ($5,005,350): With the Lakers seemingly ticketed for a spot in the Western Conference Finals, this would normally be an opportunity for Bradley to show off his value in advance of a bigger offseason payday. Instead, having opted out of the restart, he hasn’t appeared in a game since March. Bradley, who is a strong perimeter defender and isn’t a liability on offense, could probably secure a modest raise in free agency, but opting in would be the safe play — especially given his long layoff.
  4. JaMychal Green, Clippers ($5,005,350): Given that he plays alongside a pair of All-Stars and two Sixth Man of the Year winners, it’s easy to overlook Green, but the veteran forward is a regular role player for one of this year’s top title favorites, averaging 16.4 MPG in 10 playoff games. While he doesn’t get many looks on offense, he’s a reliable three-point shooter and a good team defender. Still, due to the leaguewide cap situation, he’s not a lock to get a raise on the open market. He also seems to enjoy playing for the Clippers, so he may be leaning toward picking up his option.
  5. Austin Rivers, Rockets ($2,436,046): Rivers is no star, but any regular rotation player who is earning the minimum is a bargain. Even if he ultimately ends up sticking with Houston or signing a minimum-salary deal with another team, it probably makes sense for Rivers to turn down his option and explore the open market — declining his option and signing a new minimum deal would likely only cost him about $100K. He could also very well do better than the minimum, unless his playoff struggles (.315/.267/.857 shooting) tank his value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

September 10th, 2020 at 4:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the New Orleans Pelicans.

Salary Cap Outlook

Taking the cap hold for their first-round pick into account, the Pelicans only have about $80MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2020/21. However, Brandon Ingram‘s cap hold will be worth nearly $22MM and his first-year salary on a new deal figures to exceed that, eliminating any cap space New Orleans might have otherwise created.

The Pelicans should also have both the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) at their disposal.

Our full salary cap preview for the Pelicans can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 13 overall pick

Second Round:

  • No. 39 overall pick
  • No. 42 overall pick
  • No. 60 overall pick

The Pelicans are owed multiple future first-round picks from the Lakers as a result of the Anthony Davis blockbuster, but for 2020, they just have their own first-rounder.

In addition to their own second-round pick at No. 42, New Orleans holds the Wizards’ second-rounder (No. 39) and the Bucks’ second-rounder (No. 60). The Pels acquired both selections in the 2019 deadline deal that sent Nikola Mirotic to Milwaukee.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. Who will the Pelicans hire as their new head coach?

After spending five years in New Orleans as the Pelicans’ head coach, Alvin Gentry was let go at the end of the team’s season last month. His tenure with the franchise was marred by a series of injuries to stars and rotation players alike, but the end result was still disappointing — the Pels posted a 175-225 (.438) record and made the postseason just once during Gentry’s five years at the helm.

When he discussed Gentry’s dismissal after the fact, executive VP of basketball operations David Griffin called it an extremely difficult decision and stressed that it wasn’t about Gentry’s coaching ability.

“This is far more about finding the right fit and a shared vision for a very young and ambitious group moving forward,” Griffin said at the time.

The Pelicans’ head coaching job is an interesting one. On one hand, the presence of rising stars like Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram means that an ability to connect to and develop young players will be an important trait for any candidate.

On the other hand, as Griffin hints, New Orleans’ goals will soon get a whole lot more “ambitious.” Missing the playoffs again next year won’t be an acceptable result for the Pelicans, who believe they have the talent to be one of the top teams in the Western Conference.

Considering the organization will have championship aspirations within the next few years, a veteran head coach with plenty of postseason experience would make sense — perhaps Tyronn Lue or, if he becomes available, Mike D’Antoni. But focusing more on player development could instead lead the Pelicans to a candidate like Kenny Atkinson.

There’s no one candidate that stands out as the obvious choice for New Orleans and it’s an important decision to get right. So it make sense when Griffin said last month that the Pelicans “will not be quick with this at all,” as they do their homework and weigh all their options.

2. What are the Pelicans’ plans for Jrue Holiday?

Holiday is one of the NBA’s best perimeter defenders and is a play-making weapon on the offensive end too, averaging at least 19 points and six assists per game in each of his last three seasons. He’s exactly the sort of player most contending teams would love to have on their roster, which means he should be a perfect fit on a Pelicans club looking to take a step forward and make the postseason in 2020/21.

On the other hand, Holiday is entering a potential contract year (he has a $27MM player option for 2021/22) and is now on the wrong side of the 30, making him significantly older than the rest of New Orleans’ core players.

If the Pelicans don’t envision him as a long-term piece, this offseason would be the perfect time to gauge Holiday’s value on the trade market, with so many would-be contenders looking to fortify their roster and so few impact players expected to be available.

Griffin has done nothing but rave about Holiday since he was hired by New Orleans last year, and the former All-Star would be hard to replace as both a two-way threat and a locker-room leader. It’s also not as if the Pelicans need to restock their cupboards with assets — they already have a surplus of first- and second-round picks in hand for the next few years.

With that in mind, I’d be somewhat surprised to see the Pelicans seriously consider moving Holiday this fall. He’ll be extension-eligible and the club seems more likely to attempt to lock him up to a longer-term deal rather than to shop him. But if they’re worried he’ll be gone in a year, the Pelicans should be able to get a pretty favorable return on the trade market for the standout guard.

3. Which of the ex-Lakers will receive new deals this offseason?

When the Pelicans sent Anthony Davis to the Lakers last summer, they acquired three players in return: Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Josh Hart. All three players will be eligible for new contracts this offseason — Ingram will be a restricted free agent, while Ball and Hart will be up for rookie scale extensions.

Ingram was the best player of the trio in 2019/20 and there’s more urgency to get something done with him, since his contract will expire in the fall. It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario in which the Pelicans let him get away, since he was the centerpiece of the AD return and the team has the cap flexibility to accommodate a pricey long-term deal. The question will be just how high New Orleans has to go to get it done.

While it’s possible the Pelicans would be able to get Ingram to agree to a deal slightly below the maximum if they’re negotiating with him directly, it may not be worth the risk to try to save a few extra dollars.

A team with cap room such as the Hawks could put pressure on New Orleans by signing him to a less team-friendly offer sheet that the Pelicans would be forced to match if they don’t want to lose him. It probably makes sense for the Pels to skip that step and be ready to offer a four- or five-year max to bring back Ingram, who made his first All-Star team in 2020.

With Ball and Hart though, the Pelicans have more leeway to play hardball. Both players will have one year left on their rookie scale contracts and will be eligible for restricted free agency in 2021 if they don’t sign new deals this offseason. So New Orleans can push for team-friendly extensions, knowing that it’s not the end of the world if nothing gets done before next season.

In his recent preview of the Pelicans’ offseason, Bobby Marks of ESPN pointed to Dejounte Murray‘s four-year, $64MM extension with San Antonio as a potential comp for Ball and said that an extension in the four-year, $50MM range might make sense for Hart. If I were running the Pelicans, I probably wouldn’t be looking to go any higher than those estimates.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Examining What Super-Max For Giannis Would Be Worth

September 10th, 2020 at 2:31pm CST by Luke Adams

With the Bucks‘ season over, all eyes are on Giannis Antetokounmpo. Last season’s Most Valuable Player has said he has no intention of asking to be traded out of Milwaukee, and has given indications that he intends to stay with the team long-term. But until he officially signs a contract extension, there will be those who question his commitment to the Bucks.

Unsurprisingly, as Shams Charania of The Athletic confirmed earlier today, the Bucks intend to put a five-year, super-max extension offer on the table for Giannis as soon as they’re eligible to do so. That extension window will open once the 2020/21 free agent period begins, but it remains to be seen exactly how much the offer will be worth. Some reports have suggested it’ll be valued at upwards of $250MM, while others have said $220MM.

When it comes to maximum-salary extensions, imprecise projections are nothing new. By definition, extensions go into effect in future league years, and max deals are based on a percentage of the cap (35%, in the case of the super-max). Until the salary cap figures are finalized for the first year of the extension, we can’t know the exact value of a maximum-salary deal.

In Giannis’ case, there are a pair of factors increasing the uncertainty and resulting in the wide range in projections:

  1. An extension for Antetokounmpo would go into effect in 2021/22, rather than in 2020/21. That’s still two league years away, creating an extra layer of uncertainty about where the cap will eventually land.
  2. The coronavirus pandemic – and everything else that has gone on during this NBA season, including the league’s standoff with Chinese partners – has impacted the league’s revenues and upended its usual cap projections. Until the NBA audits the ’19/20 season and has a better sense of what revenues for the ’20/21 campaign will look like, projecting a ’21/22 cap figure will be extremely difficult.

As a result of all this uncertainty, it will be some time before we know how much Antetokounmpo would earn if he accepts a five-year, super-max contract. Still, we can project some hypothetical scenarios based on potential cap figures.

Previously, this season’s cap ($109,141,000) was projected to increase to $115MM in 2020/21 and then $125MM in ’21/22. Now, it appears more likely that next season’s cap will be about the same as this year’s. That could be true again in 2021/22 — or perhaps the jump to $115MM will be delayed by a year. A small dip – maybe to $105MM or so – isn’t even out of the question. So let’s break down all of those scenarios and examine what a super-max deal for Giannis would look like in each case…

(Note: If you’re a mobile/app user, you can view the full chart by turning your phone sideways.)

Year/Cap $105MM
 $109.141MM
 $115MM
 $125MM
2021/22 $36,750,000 $38,199,350 $40,250,000 $43,750,000
2022/23 $39,690,000 $41,255,298 $43,470,000 $47,250,000
2023/24 $42,630,000 $44,311,246 $46,690,000 $50,750,000
2024/25 $45,570,000 $47,367,194 $49,910,000 $54,250,000
2025/26 $48,510,000 $50,423,142 $53,130,000 $57,750,000
Total $213,150,000 $221,556,230 $233,450,000 $253,750,000

As our chart shows, if the cap really does stand pat for the next couple years, a super-max for Antetokounmpo would be worth more than $30MM less than what was originally projected.

That shouldn’t provide Giannis with any incentive to leave Milwaukee. The super-max option would still be way more lucrative than an outside offer from any other team, which would be limited to four years starting at 30% of the cap. Based on the four hypothetical cap scenarios listed above, a rival team’s best four-year offer would range from $135.5MM to $161.3MM.

Still, the lingering cap uncertainty could incentivize the star forward to take a wait-and-see approach to extension talks. After all, he’ll still be super-max eligible when his contract ends in 2021 — by waiting until that point, he’d have a much clearer idea of what the deal would actually be worth when he signs it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Who Will Win Raptors/Celtics Game 7?

September 10th, 2020 at 11:44am CST by Luke Adams

After one of the summer’s best games on Wednesday night – a double-overtime thriller which Toronto eventually pulled out – the Raptors and Celtics are headed for a Game 7 on Friday. It may not be the only second-round series to ultimately go seven games, but it’s the first one to get there.

Prior to 2020, the Raptors and Celtics had never met in the postseason, but this series has been worth the wait. The Atlantic Division rivals were fairly evenly matched during the regular season, buoyed to the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds in the East by their lockdown defenses, and those defenses have been on full display this series.

Pascal Siakam, an All-Star this season for the Raptors, has struggled immensely against Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and the rest of Boston’s defenders in the second round, averaging just 15.2 PPG on .378/.129/.722 shooting, a significant step down from his season averages of 22.9 PPG on .453/.359/.792 shooting.

Fellow All-Star Kemba Walker, meanwhile, has had some big games and hit some big shots in the series, but has struggled at times to get things going against the likes of Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, and OG Anunoby, even facing a box-and-one defense on Wednesday. In Game 6, he scored just five points on 2-of-11 shooting.

Lowry and Jayson Tatum have had productive series, and Brown and Smart have had some big-time performances for the C’s, while Anunoby and Norman Powell have hit some series-saving shots for the Raptors, who are also getting solid production from Serge Ibaka. But Nick Nurse and Brad Stevens haven’t been relying too much on their benches — in Wednesday’s game, Marc Gasol was the only starter on either team who didn’t play at least 47 minutes.

Of the series’ six games so far, two have been blowouts — both Celtics wins. The Raptors have won three of the four close games. Those numbers would seem to favor Boston, and the C’s are indeed viewed as more likely to advance. Most oddsmakers have the Celtics listed as at least two-point favorites for Game 7.

With over 24 hours to go before Game 7 tips off, we want to get your predictions. Will it be the Raptors or the Celtics that comes through on Friday and advances to play Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Community Shootaround: All-Defensive Snubs

September 9th, 2020 at 11:14am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA announced its All-Defensive teams for the 2019/20 season on Tuesday, and there weren’t many surprises among the 10 players who made the cut.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, and Rudy Gobert – the three finalists for Defensive Player of the Year – headlined the First Team along with guards Ben Simmons and Marcus Smart. Former two-time DPOY Kawhi Leonard led the way on the Second Team, joined by teammate Patrick Beverley, as well as Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe, and Bam Adebayo.

While none of the inclusions on this year’s All-Defensive teams were particularly egregious, the announcement still drew the ire of some players and observers who felt that certain defenders were overlooked.

Pelicans guard J.J. Redick, for instance, argued (via Twitter) that teammate Jrue Holiday is the best defensive guard in the league and was snubbed in this year’s voting. Holiday received a pair of First Team votes and 14 Second Team votes, placing him third among guards who didn’t make the cut, behind Kris Dunn and Kyle Lowry.

Speaking of Lowry, former NBA swingman Mario Elie took exception to the fact that the Raptors guard didn’t make an All-Defensive squad this season, and singled out Rockets forward P.J. Tucker as another player who shouldn’t have been omitted. Tucker’s 29 Second Team votes placed him atop the list of forwards who missed the cut, just ahead of Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum, and Pascal Siakam.

It’s worth noting that when Jon Krawczynski and Josh Robbins of The Athletic conducted an anonymous coaches poll on the All-Defensive teams earlier this summer, Tucker was the one player in the coaches’ 10-player group who didn’t eventually earn a spot on the official All-Defensive teams — those anonymous coaches voted Tucker in over Lopez.

What do you think? Do Holiday, Lowry, Tucker, or any other players have legitimate gripes, or did voters get it pretty much right? Were there any players on either of this year’s All-Defensive teams who you felt didn’t deserve their spot?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Warriors, Thunder, Heat Hold Largest TPEs

September 8th, 2020 at 2:41pm CST by Luke Adams

A number of traded player exceptions that were scheduled to expire in July had their deadlines pushed back to coincide with the NBA’s revamped offseason schedule. In order to give teams the opportunity to maximize their resources, the expiration dates for those trade exceptions have been postponed to ensure they fall after the start of 2020 free agency.

For instance, the Warriors‘ $17.2MM traded player exception, generated in last July’s Andre Iguodala deal, had initially been set to expire on July 7, one year after the team traded Iguodala and one day after the NBA’s July moratorium ended. Now, with the free agency moratorium scheduled to end on October 23, Golden State’s TPE will expire on October 24, giving the team a small window to use it.

Presumably, if free agency gets delayed again, as has been rumored, the deadlines for that Warriors TPE and others would be pushed back again too.

As we explain in greater depth in our glossary entry, traded player exceptions allow over-the-cap teams to acquire players without needing to match salaries. The Warriors’ Iguodala trade exception is the one that’s most frequently discussed and speculated about, but Golden State isn’t the only team with a TPE that could come in handy this offseason.

Listed below are the 10 most valuable trade exceptions still available, along with their current expiration dates. Teams that go below the cap to use their cap room this offseason will have to forfeit these TPEs to do so.

  1. Golden State Warriors: $17,185,185 (10/24/20)
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder: $10,389,997 (10/27/20)
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder: $9,346,153 (10/25/20)
  4. Miami Heat: $7,533,867 (2/8/21)
  5. Portland Trail Blazers: $7,069,662 (1/21/21)
  6. Memphis Grizzlies: $4,736,842 (10/25/20)
  7. Memphis Grizzlies: $4,185,185 (2/8/21)
  8. New York Knicks: $3,988,766 (2/8/21)
  9. Cleveland Cavaliers: $3,837,500 (12/24/20)
  10. Houston Rockets: $3,595,333 (2/5/21)

Check out our tracker for the full list of available traded player exceptions.

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