Hoops Rumors Originals

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: New York Knicks

August 17th, 2020 at 3:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the New York Knicks.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Knicks have seven players with non-guaranteed (or partially guaranteed) contracts or team options for next season, totaling nearly $50MM. Their decisions on those players will go a long ways toward dictating their cap flexibility for the coming offseason.

Assuming at least a couple of the more expensive players are let go – including Bobby Portis ($15.75MM) and Wayne Ellington ($8MM) – New York is in position to open up a decent chunk of cap room — perhaps in the $25-30MM range.

Our full salary cap preview for the Knicks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Bobby Portis, team option: $15,750,000 (Oct. 17 deadline)
Theo Pinson, team option: $1,701,593 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Taj Gibson ($9,450,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
Wayne Ellington ($8,000,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
Elfrid Payton ($8,000,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
Reggie Bullock ($4,200,000)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $1MM.
Mitchell Robinson ($1,663,861)

Two-Way Contracts:

Kenny Wooten (expires in 2021)
Jared Harper (expiring)

Free Agents:

Maurice Harkless (Bird)
Damyean Dotson (RFA; Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 6 overall pick (pending lottery results)
No. 27 overall pick

The Knicks have the sixth-best lottery odds, but their most likely pick is No. 7 (29.6%). They have a 9.0% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 37.2% chance at a top-four selection. No. 6 (8.6%), No. 8 (20.6%), and No. 9 (3.8%) are also in play, while No. 10 (0.2%) is an extreme long shot.

The Knicks will also receive the Clippers’ first-round pick, which landed at No. 27.

Second Round:

No. 38 overall pick

The Knicks traded away their own second-round pick (No. 36), but acquired the Hornets’ selection, which will be No. 38.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What sort of impact will the Knicks’ new leadership have?

The Knicks have undergone a major overhaul off the court in 2020. Veteran player agent Leon Rose was hired to head up the team’s basketball operations department, with Frank Zanin and Walt Perrin coming aboard as assistant general managers and William “World Wide Wes” Wesley being named the club’s executive VP/senior basketball advisor.

The first major task the new-look front office faced was hiring a permanent head coach, and the group settled on Tom Thibodeau, who has six postseason appearances and four playoff series wins under his belt as a head coach in Chicago and Minnesota.

There has been no shortage of turnover within the Knicks’ leadership ranks since the team last appeared in the playoffs in 2013. Thibodeau is the seventh head coach since then, and the front office has been overseen by several executives in recent years, including Steve Mills, Scott Perry, and Phil Jackson.

None of those coaches or execs have had much success in New York, and one school of thought suggests that team owner James Dolan is to blame. As long as Dolan is running the show, the theory goes, the Knicks will be incapable of building a winning culture and becoming a desirable landing spot for NBA stars.

Dolan may not be the ideal NBA team owner, but he has mostly avoided meddling in basketball matters in recent years, and he can’t be blamed for the majority of the questionable signings, draft picks, and trades the Knicks have made during that time. The right front office and head coach should be able to succeed in spite of Dolan, and the law of averages suggests that the franchise should – at some point – stumble upon the right combination.

Can Rose and Thibodeau be that “right combination”? The Knicks are hopeful that Rose’s decades of experience dealing with players and building relationships will translate into success in roster building and free agent recruiting. And Thibodeau is an experienced head coach who is liked and respected by a number of veteran stars around the league. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, but there’s at least some reason for optimism that this president/coach pairing can be more effective than the team’s recent duos.

2. Will the Knicks take a different approach with cap room this time around?

A year ago, the Knicks entered the offseason with enough cap space available to sign two maximum-salary free agents. But they were unable to convince any of the top players on the market to sign with them, and instead used the majority of their cap room to sign solid but unspectacular veterans to deals with no more than one fully guaranteed season (Julius Randle, who received two fully guaranteed seasons on his three-year contract, was the exception).

The thinking was that those veterans could help the Knicks compete for a playoff spot, then if things didn’t work out, they could be shopped for draft picks or young players at the trade deadline. New York was never in the playoff race though, and the only veteran who drew considerable interest at the deadline was Marcus Morris, who was almost an accidental signing last July — he received most of the Knicks’ remaining cap room after pulling out of a verbal agreement with the Spurs.

The Knicks can’t force star free agents to sign with them, and using their cap room to invest in long-term deals for second- or third-tier players would be ill-advised. But there were other ways to maximize their cap space, and there will be again this year, as long as the club sheds some of those 2019 signees without full guarantees for ’20/21.

The trade market offers one such avenue. A year ago, the Clippers’ willingness to take on Maurice Harkless’ $11MM expiring contract earned them a first-round pick along with a player who was a key part of their rotation until he was flipped at the trade deadline. The Knicks didn’t take advantage of any similar trade opportunities with their cap room in 2019, but they could look to do so in 2020 if there are no free agents who catch their eye.

Simply accommodating a salary-dump or two could allow New York to acquire some extra draft capital, but the team could get more ambitious than that. If the Knicks are willing to take on multiyear money, they could target high-priced impact players such as Chris Paul or Blake Griffin. Those guys likely aren’t part of their teams’ long-term plans and wouldn’t require a massive return, given their exorbitant salaries.

I’m a little skeptical that the new front office will want to go that route though, since it would mean compromising the team’s cap flexibility for 2021 for stop-gap veterans. The Knicks will want a shot at the top players in next year’s class, which will probably mean using this year’s room to sign short-term deals or to acquire expiring contracts.

3. What do the Knicks have in their former lottery picks?

Among the Knicks’ returning players, there are four who were top-10 picks in the last three NBA drafts: Frank Ntilikina (No. 8 in 2017), Dennis Smith Jr. (No. 9 in ’17), Kevin Knox (No. 9 in ’18), and RJ Barrett (No. 3 in ’19).

This will be a crucial year for all four, but especially for Ntilikina and Smith, who are entering the final season of their respective rookie contracts. Ntilikina is a strong defender whose offensive game remains extremely limited, while Smith’s shooting struggles have held him back. It seems safe to assume that neither will receive a rookie scale extension this offseason — the question is whether either will begin the season with a new team.

The Knicks have been unwilling to sell low on Ntilikina in the past and didn’t end up moving Smith at this season’s deadline. But Rose didn’t draft either player, so if he doesn’t view them as part of New York’s future, he may be more inclined to view them as sunk costs and take what he can get in a trade. On the other hand, if Rose wants to see what Thibodeau can get out of them, Ntilikina and Smith may get one more chance to prove they can be part of the organization’s plan going forward.

With two years left on his rookie deal, Knox isn’t at the same crossroads as the 2017 lottery picks, but after an extremely underwhelming sophomore season, he’s under pressure to show improvement in 2020/21 under Thibodeau. He’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension a year from now, but unless he takes major strides between now and then, he’s unlikely to get one.

As for Barrett, he showed promise as a rookie and is the best candidate – besides Mitchell Robinson – to be a long-term fixture in New York. However, Rose and Thibodeau will have to make it a priority to put him in a better position to succeed. The former Duke standout was surrounded by too many ball-dominant players rather than floor-spacers in 2019/20, limiting his ability to maximize his impact.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

August 17th, 2020 at 2:49pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020 NBA draft lottery is just three days away, having been rescheduled to Thursday, August 20 after being postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. The event could significantly impact the fate of several NBA franchises vying for the right to select top prospects such as Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, and James Wiseman.

This will be the second time that the NBA is using a new lottery format that has smoothed out the odds, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 pick from 25.0% to 14.0%. A year ago, the new format had an immediate impact — the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

For a full breakdown of the system, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject.

The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since a couple teams finished the season with identical records, which will impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new odds for 2020 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for instance, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
GSW	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
CLE	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
MIN	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
ATL	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.8	2.2	–	–	–	–	–	–
DET	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.8	0.6	–	–	–	–	–
NYK	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.6	20.6	3.8	0.2	–	–	–	–
CHI	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–	–	–
CHA	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0	–	–
WSH	4.5	4.8	5.2	5.7	–	–	–	–	50.7	25.9	3	0.1	>0	–
PHX	3	3.3	3.6	4	–	–	–	–	–	65.9	18.9	1.2	>0	>0
SAS	2	2.2	2.4	2.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	77.6	12.6	0.4	>0
SAC	1.3	1.4	1.6	1.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	86.1	7.6	0.1
NOP	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	92.0	2.3
MEM	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	97.6

Notes:

The Grizzlies‘ pick will be sent to the Celtics unless it moves up into the top four.

The full pre-lottery draft order for 2020 can be found right here.

2020 Pre-Lottery NBA Draft Order

August 17th, 2020 at 2:27pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted its draft tiebreakers on Monday, further cementing the draft order for 2020. While we’ll have to wait until this Thursday’s draft lottery to determine the exact order for this year’s event, we now know what most of the 60 selections look like.

Listed below is the pre-lottery 2020 NBA draft order. Each lottery team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick are noted in parentheses. We’ve also included notes for picks whose status remains up in the air — for example, the Grizzlies‘ first-round pick could still technically end up with either Memphis or the Celtics.

For teams with identical records, Monday’s tiebreakers only determined the first-round order — that order is reversed in the second round. As such, a couple second-round picks may hinge on next month’s lottery results.

For instance, even though the Kings won the tiebreaker vs. the Pelicans for the No. 12 spot in the lottery order, New Orleans could still leapfrog Sacramento in the lottery, in which case the Kings’ second-round pick would move ahead of the Pelicans’ second-rounder.

We’ll provided an updated list after the August 20 lottery, once the official draft order is set, but here’s the tentative 2020 NBA draft order:

First Round:

Golden State Warriors (14.0%)
Cleveland Cavaliers (14.0%)
Minnesota Timberwolves (14.0%)
Atlanta Hawks (12.5%)
Detroit Pistons (10.5%)
New York Knicks (9.0%)
Chicago Bulls (7.5%)
Charlotte Hornets (6.0%)
Washington Wizards (4.5%)
Phoenix Suns (3.0%)
San Antonio Spurs (2.0%)
Sacramento Kings (1.3%)
New Orleans Pelicans (1.2%)
Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies) (0.5%)
- Note: The Grizzlies will keep this pick if it moves up into the top four (2.4% chance).
Orlando Magic
Portland Trail Blazers
Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
Dallas Mavericks
Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
Miami Heat
Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
Utah Jazz
Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
Boston Celtics
New York Knicks (from Clippers)
Los Angeles Lakers
Toronto Raptors
Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Second Round:

Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
New York Knicks (from Hornets)
New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
San Antonio Spurs
New Orleans Pelicans
Sacramento Kings
- Note: Kings would swap places with Pelicans if New Orleans gets higher first-round pick than Sacramento via lottery.
Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
Orlando Magic
Portland Trail Blazers
Boston Celtics (from Nets)
Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
Philadelphia 76ers
Atlanta Hawks (from Heat)
Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
Sacramento Kings (from Rockets)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers
Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
Los Angeles Clippers
Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
Toronto Raptors
New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)

Information from NBA.com was used in the creation of this post.

Community Shootaround: First Round Playoff Predictions

August 17th, 2020 at 10:31am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA postseason, originally scheduled to get underway on April 18, will finally begin today, about four months later than anticipated. Although the coronavirus pandemic threw a wrench into the NBA’s plans for the end of the 2019/20 campaign, the league is now in a good position to finish its season at its Walt Disney World campus.

Of the eight first-round playoff series scheduled to begin on Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the most fascinating matchups can be found in the Western Conference. And no first-round series is considered more of a toss-up than the No. 4 Rockets against the No. 5 Thunder.

The two teams finished with identical 44-28 records, despite the fact that last July’s Russell Westbrook/Chris Paul swap was one in a series of moves that made it seem as if Houston was going all-in on the 2019/20 season while Oklahoma City was taking a step back. A quad strain has compromised Westbrook’s availability for the start of the series, which dampens the Westbrook vs. Paul subplot, but Houston remains the slight favorite at -160, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook (link via ESPN). In other words, you’d have to risk $160 on the Rockets in order to collect $100 if they win the series.

The next-tightest matchup, per Caesar’s, is also in the West, as the No. 3 Nuggets (-220) face the No. 6 Jazz. Utah is likely relieved not to have to face Houston in the first round after being dismantled by the Rockets in the last two postseasons. But the Jazz will enter the playoffs without Bojan Bogdanovic and Mike Conley available. While Conley – who is away for the birth of his child – should be back at some point during the series, Bogdanovic is out for the season due to wrist surgery and his absence will limit Utah’s upside — even if the Nuggets are still without a couple key players of their own (Gary Harris and Will Barton).

The No. 1 Lakers (-450) are solid favorites over the No. 8 Trail Blazers, as are the No. 2 Clippers (-550) vs. the No. 7 Mavericks. But both of those lower seeds are frisky — Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic are each capable of single-handedly leading their teams to a win or two, and neither L.A. team has been so dominant this season that we should assume either series will be a cakewalk.

Over in the East, there are a pair of series that oddsmakers assume will be a cakewalk. The No. 2 Raptors (-5,000) are huge favorites over the No. 7 Nets, while the No. 1 Bucks (-15,000) are absolutely massive favorites over the No. 8 Magic, per Caesar’s.

Milwaukee and Toronto look like two of the NBA’s best teams, while Brooklyn and Orlando have both been hit hard by injuries and finished the season with losing records. The Nets have at least played impressive ball during the restart, knocking off the Clippers and Bucks and nearly ruining Portland’s playoff chances. They look like a better bet than the Magic to make a top seed sweat a little.

Elsewhere in the East, the No. 3 Celtics (-400) are solid favorites over the No. 6 Sixers, and the No. 5 Heat (-320) are considered good bets to defeat the No. 4 Pacers. That Boston/Philadelphia series would have been a whole lot more intriguing if Ben Simmons were healthy — without him, it’s not clear if the 76ers will have an answer for Boston’s versatile offensive attack. But Joel Embiid has always had success vs. the C’s, so if he can stay healthy and have a big series, the Sixers could make things interesting.

The Pacers, meanwhile, would be a more intriguing upset pick if they had Domantas Sabonis available and if Victor Oladipo were a lock to be at full strength. The Heat, who won the season series 3-0, look like the safer pick, but this could still be the most competitive first-round series in the East.

What do you think? Do you expect any underdogs to make it out of the first round, or are you picking the favorites across the board? Are there any 1-8 or 2-7 matchups that you think could be more competitive than advertised? Which first-round series do you expect to be the most entertaining?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and your picks!

Community Shootaround: Play-In Series

August 15th, 2020 at 6:33pm CST by Arthur Hill

The NBA made some history this afternoon with its first-ever play-in series, and the results could help make it a permanent part of the league’s postseason.

The Trail Blazers rallied from an eight-point fourth quarter deficit to edge the Grizzlies and claim the West’s final playoff spot. Because Portland held the eighth seed, it only took one victory to advance, while Memphis would have needed to win two in a row.

“I was thinking I don’t want to play again tomorrow,” Portland’s CJ McCollum, who is dealing with a back injury, said in an ESPN interview. “We had to get this done tonight, [and] make sure we came in and finished them off. We’re thankful to be in a position to be able to make the playoffs, and we didn’t want to squander an opportunity.”

Commissioner Adam Silver said Friday he hopes the play-in series will become an annual event, and it seems many fans and reporters agree. Kristian Winfield of The New York Daily News called on the league to replace its “outdated” tie-breaker system that is based on head-to-head records, along with division and conference results.

The set-up used in Orlando called for a play-in series as long as the eighth and ninth seeds were within four games of each other. Winfield believes that’s too much of a margin to use in a normal season and suggests the series only be implemented if the teams are tied or no more than a game apart.

Silver has long been a fan of the play-in series concept and introduced the idea last fall as part of a switch to a 78-game season. His proposal would have had teams seven through 10 in each conference competing for the final two seeds. This year’s series added a lot of drama to the final days of seeding games as the Blazers, Grizzlies, Suns and Spurs all entered Thursday with a chance to qualify.

We want to get your input. Should the NBA hold a play-in series every year, regardless of how close the race is for playoff spots? And should one or two playoff spots be at stake in each conference? Please leave your comments in the space below.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Restart Edition

August 14th, 2020 at 8:37pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. With the seeding games winding down at the Orlando campus, it’s time to examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors.

Carmelo Anthony, Trail Blazers, 36, PF (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.16MM deal in 2019
Remember when Anthony’s reps were practically begging teams to give their client one more chance to play in the league? Carmelo took advantage of his opportunity with the Trail Blazers, finally accepting his new status as a role player instead of being the No. 1 offensive option. He’s turned it up a notch in Orlando during the Blazers’ run to the play-in round. The slimmed-down Anthony has reached the 20-point mark four times in eight games and made 46.9% of his 3s, while also being a factor on the boards (6.9 RPG). He won’t have to lobby for another contract after this season, nor will he have to accept the veteran’s minimum again.

Brandon Ingram, Pelicans, 22, SF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $23.8MM deal in 2016
It’s not that Ingram was terrible in Orlando. It’s just that the Pelicans stunk up the joint and the stench clung to everyone involved. Following a breakout season which earned him an All-Star selection, Ingram was unable to carry his team into the play-in round. New Orleans’ poor performances left everyone wondering whether the roster should be reshaped, especially with the front office owning a boatload of draft picks. And Zion Williamson isn’t going anywhere. So while Ingram will still get rewarded handsomely in restricted free agency, is he worth franchise-player type money? There’s no guarantee now the Pels will match if he gets a giant offer sheet.

Cameron Payne, Suns, 26, PG (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2.17MM deal in 2020
Payne was on the free agent market this summer and was signed to fill an open roster spot prior to the restart. Phoenix didn’t bring him in simply for insurance. He appeared in all eight seeding games as a backup point guard, averaging 10.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG and 3.0 APG in 22.9 MPG. Though he signed a two-year contract, only $25K of that money for next season is guaranteed, as ESPN’s Bobby Marks recently noted. The way Payne performed in Orlando, he should have no trouble staying on the roster and earning the rest of his $1.977MM salary for 2020/21 as a second-unit player.

Tyler Johnson, Nets, 28, PG/SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $217K deal in 2020
Johnson signed a four-year, $50MM offer sheet with Brooklyn four summers ago but Miami chose to retain him. He finally wound up with the Nets in free agency and got just over $200K in a rest-of-the-season deal. No matter. Johnson was happy to get fresh start and it has shown during Brooklyn’s gritty performances in Orlando. He’s averaged 12.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 3.0 APG in 24.3 MPG and can now continue his push for another contract during the postseason. If the Nets don’t retain him, Johnson should easily find a home as a second-unit combo guard.

Jerian Grant, Wizards, 27, PG/SG (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $197K deal in 2020
Grant was signed as a substitute player in June after Davis Bertans opted out of the restart. Grant called it a “dream come true” to play for his hometown team, but he didn’t give the Wizards much incentive to re-sign him to an NBA contract. He appeared in six restart games, averaging 4.5 PPG and 1.5 APG in 13.3 MPG while shooting 25% from long range. Grant spent most of the season with the Wizards’ G League team and he may have to go that route again or look into overseas options.

Community Shootaround: NBA Bubble Awards

August 14th, 2020 at 3:30pm CST by Luke Adams

They won’t exactly be as meaningful as the end-of-season MVP, All-NBA, and Coach of the Year awards, but the NBA will announce the winners of similar awards for its summer bubble on Saturday. Based exclusively on performances from July 30 to August 14, the league will name a Player of the Seeding Games, a Coach of the Seeding Games, and an All-Seeding Games Team.

The one-off awards will give the NBA an opportunity to shine a spotlight on the summer’s most pleasant surprises, such as the 8-0 Suns, the only undefeated team of the restart. Phoenix didn’t end up qualifying for a play-in tournament in the Western Conference, but it seems safe to assume that coach Monty Williams and star Devin Booker (30.5 PPG, 6.0 APG) will get plenty of award votes from media members this week.

With apologies to Jacque Vaughn (Nets), Terry Stotts (Trail Blazers), Nick Nurse (Raptors), and a few other worthy candidates, Williams looks like the overwhelming favorite for the Coach of the Bubble award. The Suns were viewed by many observers as unworthy of an invite to Orlando, but their 8-0 run – without key veterans like Aron Baynes and Kelly Oubre – left no doubt that they belonged.

Booker will face stiff competition for Player of the Bubble honors though. The frontrunner is probably Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard, who averaged a staggering 51.3 PPG in his team’s last three games — Portland needed to win all three in order to qualify for a play-in tournament, and did, by a combined margin of seven points. Lillard, who averaged 37.6 PPG and 9.6 APG on .497/.436/.888 in eight total games, came up big when it mattered most for the Blazers.

John Hollinger of The Athletic and D.J. Foster of The Athletic each included Booker and Lillard on their All-Bubble First Team alongside Rockets guard James Harden, Pacers forward T.J. Warren, and Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.

Harden has put up numbers that are even more eye-popping than usual in six games at Walt Disney World, averaging 35.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 8.7 APG, and 3.0 SPG as the Rockets moved up a spot in the standings.

Warren will miss Indiana’s last two games, but his 53-point performance on August 1 vs. Philadelphia was one of the single-best games of the summer. He finished with averages of 31.0 PPG and 6.3 RPG on .578/.524/.889 shooting.

Doncic, meanwhile, came just two assists away from averaging a triple-double in seven summer games, with 30.0 PPG, 10.1 RPG, and 9.7 APG.

There are other worthy contenders for All-Bubble First Team consideration, including some of the usual suspects, such as Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.8 PPG, 12.2 RBG, 4.2 APG, .626 FG%) and Clippers star Kawhi Leonard (28.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.3 APG, .479/.485/.865 shooting). Kristaps Porzingis was actually the Mavericks’ leading scorer over Doncic, with 30.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 1.5 BPG in six games.

And while their numbers aren’t quite as gaudy, young players like Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr., Spurs guard Derrick White, and Nets wing Caris LeVert were among the most impressive summer performers.

What do you think? If you were voting for the same awards as media members – a Player of the Bubble, Coach of the Bubble, and two All-Bubble teams, what would your picks look like? Does a Lillard/Booker/Harden/Warren/Doncic First Team look right to you, or are there other players you believe deserve a First Team spot?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

August 13th, 2020 at 6:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

The Warriors won’t have any cap room available in the 2020 offseason. In fact, adding the cap hit for a top-five draft pick to their already-pricey roster will easily put the Dubs in luxury tax territory.

Still, assuming team ownership remains willing to spend big, Golden State has some flexibility to add roster upgrades using the taxpayer mid-level exception (which should be worth at least $5.7MM) and a $17.2MM traded player exception.

Our full salary cap preview for the Warriors can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Marquese Chriss ($1,824,003)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $800K; will become fully guaranteed on November 1.
Damion Lee ($1,762,796)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $600K.
Ky Bowman ($1,517,981)
Mychal Mulder ($1,517,981)
Juan Toscano-Anderson ($1,517,981)

Two-Way Contracts:

None

Free Agents:

None

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 1 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Warriors are tied for the most favorable lottery odds, with a 14.0% chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 52.1% chance to receive a top-four selection. Because they had the NBA’s worst record, they can’t fall further than No. 5 (47.9%).

Second Round:

No. 48 overall pick
No. 51, 52, or 53 overall pick (pending tiebreaker)

The Warriors traded away their own second-round pick (No. 31), but acquired Dallas’ and Utah’s selections. The Jazz pick could end up anywhere from No. 51 to 53 depending on the results of a tiebreaker with Oklahoma City and Houston.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What will the Warriors do with their top-five draft pick?

If the Warriors were in a position to draft a potential generational talent such as Zion Williamson with their lottery pick this fall, there would be little doubt that they’d hang onto their first-rounder and simply plug that player into their lineup.

However, with no consensus on who should be the No. 1 pick in 2020 and no surefire superstars in this year’s draft class, it might make more sense for the veteran team to shop its top-five pick and trade it to the highest bidder.

Just one year removed from their fifth consecutive NBA Finals appearance, the Warriors are well positioned to bounce back in a big way in 2020/21, with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in the mix. The right deal could give Golden State the immediate upgrade necessary to once again enter the season as the championship frontrunner.

Unlike most clubs picking high in the lottery, the Warriors aren’t in desperate need of an infusion of young talent. And with teams around the NBA potentially tightening their purse strings as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, acquiring a high-upside rookie on a cost-controlled four-year contract could hold significant appeal to a potential Warriors trade partner, increasing the Dubs’ leverage in negotiations.

Still, there are compelling reasons for Golden State to considering keeping the pick. For one, the Warriors’ stars are all now in their 30s — going all-in on veterans would mean risking having the franchise’s window of contention close within the next few years. Adding a young building block could help eventually ease the transition from the Curry/Thompson/Draymond Green-era Warriors to the next generation.

It’s also worth considering what exactly the Warriors could get back in a trade involving their lottery pick. When the Lakers landed the No. 4 pick in the 2019 lottery, it was a foregone conclusion that they’d use that pick as part of their offer for Anthony Davis. There are no superstars this fall who are locks to be on the trade block and who have conveyed a desire to play in the Bay Area. A top-five pick could net the Warriors a good return, but the opportunity to land a bona fide star may simply not be there this offseason.

Although I certainly expect the Warriors to explore a variety of trade options involving their lottery pick, it wouldn’t surprise me if the team’s approach to that selection is similar to the one it took with D’Angelo Russell. When Golden State acquired Russell in a sign-and-trade, it did so knowing he’d have enough value to eventually be flipped for an asset – or assets – that better complemented the current roster.

The Warriors could take the same path with their top pick, using it to draft a player while recognizing that that prospect could eventually headline an appealing package if the right veteran star reaches the trade market.

2. What will the Warriors do with their $17MM+ trade exception?

The Warriors’ decision on trading their draft pick is complicated by the fact that they have a $17MM+ traded player exception that will expire if it’s not used by October 24. The exception allows the team to acquire a player (or players) earning up to $17,285,185 without sending out any salary themselves. That ability could be extremely useful in any draft-day trade.

Most trade exceptions expire without being used, but this one – besides being unusually large – is also one of the only viable avenues for the Warriors to make a roster upgrade this fall. They project to be well over the tax line, meaning they’ll have no cap room, no bi-annual exception, and will only have the taxpayer version of the mid-level exception. If they don’t use this TPE, their flexibility to add talent will be limited.

That’s not to say that the Warriors are obligated to use the exception. Adding salary to the roster will increase Golden State’s tax bill exponentially. And while Joe Lacob and company have never been shy about spending big, we’re in uncharted territory now, with no real sense of when fans might be allowed back in the Warriors’ new arena. The revenues from the Chase Center were supposed to help offset the rising cost of the club’s roster, but barring a major nationwide and statewide improvement on the handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the club won’t be selling out its building anytime soon.

The Warriors will want to take advantage of Curry’s and Thompson’s prime years and aren’t about to cut costs. But acquiring a player earning $17MM would likely increase the team’s tax bill by three or four times that amount. Although there are some intriguing potential targets out there, guys like Evan Fournier, Will Barton, J.J. Redick, or Josh Richardson aren’t exactly stars — increasing overall 2020/21 payroll by $50-80MM to land one of them might not be the best use of the organization’s resources.

With that in mind, it’s worth noting that using a $17MM trade exception to acquire a player earning $5MM – instead of $17MM – shouldn’t be viewed as a wasted opportunity. If a lesser-priced player can provide similar production, it’s the prudent move, even if it means not taking advantage of the full exception. As such, if the Warriors use their TPE, they may prioritize finding a bargain veteran or a player on a rookie contract who could be acquired without breaking the bank.

3. What’s the plan for Andrew Wiggins?

The cleanest way for the Warriors to avoid an astronomical tax bill while still making some changes to their roster would be to trade Wiggins. Of the four Warriors players earning more than $22MM in 2020/21, he’s the most expendable, having not been part of their championship teams.

But Wiggins still doesn’t have positive trade value at this point. When he was dealt to Golden State for Russell, there was plenty of talk about how playing on the wing alongside Curry, Thompson, and Green would be an ideal situation for the former No. 1 pick, giving him a chance to rebuild his value as a complementary option rather than a go-to guy. However, we haven’t actually seen whether that forecast will come to fruition, in part because he hasn’t had a chance to play with the team’s three stars yet.

In the limited action he did see for the Warriors, Wiggins didn’t look all that different from the player we saw in Minnesota. He can score, but not especially efficiently. And the team was worse defensively when he was on the court than when he sat.

With three years and $94.7MM left on his contract, Wiggins still has to take significant strides before he can realistically be considered a positive trade asset. That means it probably doesn’t make much sense for Golden State to try to move him this offseason.

If the team legitimately believes that Wiggins will thrive in his new role, it should give him a chance to do so. If it works, Warriors management can decide at that point whether it makes more sense to keep him in that role or to revisit the trade market with a more appealing asset in hand.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

August 12th, 2020 at 12:30pm CST by Luke Adams

Salary Cap Outlook

Trading Andre Drummond at the February trade deadline ensured that the Pistons will be able to create some cap room this offseason.

The exact amount available will hinge on several factors, including how many non-guaranteed contracts and free agents the team wants to retain, where its lottery pick lands, and how much the league-wide salary cap increases, if at all.

However, even a fairly conservative estimate – which assumes no cap increase and Detroit retaining its non-guaranteed players and Christian Wood‘s cap hold – should comfortably get the Pistons to $25MM+ in space.

Our full salary cap preview for the Pistons can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

Tony Snell, player option: $12,178,571 (Oct. 11 deadline)
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, team option: $1,663,861 (Oct. 15 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Justin Patton ($1,824,003)
Bruce Brown ($1,663,861)
Khyri Thomas ($1,663,861)
- Note: Partially guaranteed for $744,684.

Two-Way Contracts:

Jordan Bone (expiring)
Louis King (expiring)

Free Agents:

Christian Wood (Early Bird)
Langston Galloway (Bird)
Brandon Knight (Bird)
John Henson (Bird)
Jordan McRae (Early Bird)
Thon Maker (RFA; Bird)

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

No. 5 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Pistons have the fifth-best lottery odds, but their most likely pick is No. 7 (26.7%). They have a 10.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 42.1% chance at a top-four selection, with No. 6 (19.6%) and No. 8 (8.8%) also realistic possibilities. No. 5 (2.2%) and No. 9 (0.6%) are longer shots.

Second Round:

None

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. How much longer will Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose be Pistons?

Trading Drummond and buying out veteran point guard Reggie Jackson earlier this year signaled that the Pistons are entering a full-fledged rebuild. The hiring of Troy Weaver – a longtime member of the Oklahoma City front office who advocated for drafting Russell Westbrook back in 2008 and helped turn the Thunder into perennial contenders – suggests that the new general manager will get a chance to put his own stamp on the franchise as it accumulates talent.

With that in mind, it’s hard to see how former No. 1 overall picks Griffin and Rose fit into the Pistons’ plan going forward. Both players are 31 years old and have troublesome injury histories. Rose is entering a contract year, while Griffin has two years left on his deal. In other words, neither player seems all that likely to be part of the next Pistons playoff team.

That doesn’t mean that Detroit will look to move them both this offseason though. Rose will certainly enter the fall as a trade candidate, but the Pistons decided not to trade him at the 2020 deadline despite receiving offers. It wouldn’t be a shock if they rebuff interest again and wait until next year’s trade deadline to seriously consider moving on from the former MVP.

As for Griffin, his value took a major hit following a lost 2019/20 season in which he was limited to 18 games due to knee problems. With $75.8MM owed to him over the next two years, Griffin is a negative trade asset, meaning it wouldn’t be in the Pistons’ best interests to pursue a deal at this point.

It makes far more sense for the team to be patient in the hopes that Griffin can bounce back in 2020/21, rebuilding his value and perhaps becoming a more viable trade chip before his contract expires in 2022.

If the right deal comes along, Weaver certainly won’t hesitate to move both Rose and Griffin sooner rather than later. But if they don’t get any offers they love, the Pistons shouldn’t be in any rush to move the former All-Stars, whose veteran leadership could still be useful for a young team.

2. Is Luke Kennard a long-term keeper or a trade chip?

The 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft, Kennard is still just 24 years old and remains a year away from restricted free agency, with a very affordable $5.3MM cap hit for 2020/21. There’s no reason he can’t be part of the Pistons’ rebuilding process if the team views him as a long-term contributor.

However, it remains to be seen how committed Detroit is to making Kennard a franchise building block. The young sharpshooter was the subject of trade rumors in February, with reports at the time suggesting that a proposed deal with the Suns was close to being completed, before it fell apart.

With Weaver now in the front office mix, it will be interesting to see which direction the Pistons go with Kennard, whose shooting ability and still-modest cap charge would make him an intriguing target for cost-conscious teams seeking three-point help in ’20/21.

The former Duke standout will become eligible for a rookie scale extension this October, and engaging in exploratory talks on a new deal should give the Pistons a sense of how much it will cost to retain Kennard. If the team feels that money would be better spent elsewhere, it wouldn’t be a surprise to hear Kennard’s name resurface in trade rumors in the coming months. On the other hand, if the price is right, the two sides will be in good position to commit to a long-term union.

3. How much are the Pistons willing to pay to retain Christian Wood?

Kennard’s extension isn’t the most pressing contract decision the Pistons will have to make on one of their current players. Unlike Kennard, who remains under contract for one more year, Wood will become a free agent this October, and he’ll be unrestricted, free to sign with any team.

Wood will hit the free agent market on the heels of a breakout year. His full-season stats (13.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG) don’t tell the full story — after he entered the starting lineup following the Drummond trade, Wood recorded 22.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, and 2.0 APG over his final 13 games. He also showed off an improved three-point shot, making 54-of-140 attempts (38.6%) on the season, despite having only attempted 42 threes prior to 2019/20.

Wood’s impressive performance, his age (25 in September), and a weak 2020 free agent class will make him one of the fall’s most attractive young UFA targets. However, a massive payday is no lock. His lack of track record could hurt him, and so will the fact that only a small handful of teams have cap room available. If those teams use their space elsewhere, Wood could have trouble finding an offer worth more than the mid-level from any team besides Detroit.

Recognizing that Wood’s market might be limited, the Pistons will want to avoid overpaying to retain the big man, who – like Kennard – is young enough to be part of the team’s rebuild.

With few long-term financial commitments on their books, the Pistons can comfortably afford to go up to the $15MM-per-year range for Wood, but if that doesn’t get it done, the team may be wary about surrendering additional flexibility for a player with such a limited résumé (Wood had appeared in 51 total games for four teams before this season).

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Summer Breakout Players

August 7th, 2020 at 6:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Perhaps no player has taken a more impressive leap this summer than Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr., who has taken on an increased role due to injuries to Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and Gary Harris. After averaging a modest 7.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG in 49 games (14.2 MPG) prior to the March stoppage, Porter has exploded for 26.3 PPG and 10.0 RPG in four games (34.7 MPG) during the restart.

Porter’s scorching-hot shooting line (.578/.500/.941) is unsustainable, and his numbers figure to dip a little if and when Murray, Barton, and Harris are all healthy. Still, in the span of a week, MPJ has gone from promising young prospect to franchise cornerstone.

Porter is one of nine players highlighted by ESPN’s writers in an article focusing on several of the summer’s up-and-coming breakout players.

Second-year swingman Gary Trent Jr. is another unsurpising inclusion on ESPN’s list. Trent is still coming off the bench for the Trail Blazers, but he’s playing 32.9 minutes per contest so far in Orlando and is shooting the lights out from beyond the arc, knocking down 22-of-35 three-point attempts (62.9%) through four games.

Grizzlies shooting guard Grayson Allen, who had played limited minutes in his first two NBA seasons and was sidelined with a hip injury prior to the hiatus, has played the best basketball of his professional career at Walt Disney world, averaging 14.3 PPG on .606/.667/.750 shooting entering today’s game.

A pair of Spurs also show up on ESPN’s list. Derrick White has taken his game to another level in Orlando, racking up 24 points in today’s win after averaging 21.3 PPG and 5.5 APG with a .455 3PT% in his first four games. Rookie forward Keldon Johnson, who played in just nine games earlier this season, has been one of San Antonio’s most-used bench players, with 13.0 PPG and 5.3 RPG entering today’s game.

Troy Brown (Wizards), Thomas Bryant (Wizards), Danuel House (Rockets), and Aaron Holiday (Pacers) also showed up on ESPN’s list.

Now that we’re halfway through the summer’s seeding games, we want to get your input. Which young players have impressed you the most in Orlando so far?

ESPN’s list focuses on up-and-comers, but have you been pleasantly surprised by what you’ve seen from certain veterans as well, such as Pacers forward T.J. Warren? Are you skeptical of small-sample sizes in some cases, or are you ready to declare that certain players have taken noticeable steps forward?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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