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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

August 5th, 2020 at 3:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Cavaliers have approximately $78.4MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2020/21 and will likely add Andre Drummond‘s $28.75MM player option to that figure, reducing their odds of creating any cap room this offseason.

The club should have its full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available, with breathing room below the luxury tax line.

Our full salary cap preview for the Cavaliers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Andre Drummond, player option: $28,751,774 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 2 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Cavaliers have the second-best lottery odds but could easily end up picking as low as No. 5 (27.8%) or No. 6 (20.0%). They have a 14.0% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 52.1% chance at a top-four selection.

Second Round:

  • None

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What’s the Cavaliers’ plan for Andre Drummond?

When the Cavs acquired Drummond from the Pistons at the trade deadline, the cost wasn’t exactly prohibitive — all it took to land the two-time All-Star was a pair of expiring contracts (belonging to John Henson and Brandon Knight) and a 2023 second-round pick.

For a team that doesn’t typically attract top free agents, paying such a modest price for a productive center like Drummond seemed like a worthwhile investment. However, the deal raised some questions as well. For instance, will Drummond opt into the final year of his contract in 2020/21? Even before the coronavirus pandemic halted the season and complicated the salary cap outlook for next season, the answer to that question appeared to be yes.

With that in mind, did it make sense for Cleveland to sacrifice potential 2020 cap room for Drummond? And how will the acquisition affect incumbent big men like Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson? Does a Love/Drummond frontcourt pairing work? Will Thompson decide to sign elsewhere now that the center spot on Cleveland’s depth chart is a little more crowded?

Although his style of play is perhaps more suited to the NBA of the 1990s or 2000s than today’s modern game, Drummond’s elite rebounding skills and his rim-protecting ability make him a solid contributor, and he’s probably better than any free agent the Cavs could’ve convinced to sign in Cleveland using their cap space this fall.

Still, there are other options for rebuilding teams with cap room, such as taking on unwanted contracts in order to collect additional draft assets. The Cavaliers’ decision to acquire Drummond suggests they’re anxious to be more competitive in the short term. That’s a somewhat risky play, though Drummond’s ability as a rim-runner and lob catcher could help young guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland develop further on offense.

I think evaluating Drummond’s fit in 2020/21 before his potential free agency next offseason is a fairly low-risk approach, but reports have indicated that a multiyear contract extension isn’t out of the question this offseason. I’d be more wary of going that route if I were the Cavs, since I’m unconvinced he’s the long-term answer in the middle for the club.

2. Will perennial trade candidate Kevin Love be moved?

Ever since it became clear in 2018 that LeBron James was leaving Cleveland for a second time, Love has been viewed as a trade candidate. However, the possibility of a deal was complicated by the big-money contract extension he signed in July 2018, just weeks after LeBron’s departure.

That extension will keep Love under contract through 2023 — he still has three years and $91.5MM on the deal after this season. By the time, he inks his next NBA contract, he’ll be entering his age-35 season.

Love’s injury history doesn’t help his trade value. Neither does the fact that his numbers over the last two seasons have only been good, not great, even as he ostensibly became the Cavs’ go-team option with LeBron and Kyrie Irving no longer around.

The Cavs have insisted over and over that they wouldn’t consider a salary-dump deal for Love and would only move him if they get good value – such as first-round draft picks and/or young players – in return. At this point though, especially given how the coronavirus pandemic will affect teams’ financial decisions, Love probably doesn’t warrant such a package from any interested suitor.

It’s possible the Cavs are just playing hardball and don’t really expect much more than a Drummond-esque return for Love. But if they stick to their stated stance, it seems safe to assume that Love won’t be going anywhere anytime soon, since no team will meet Cleveland’s alleged price.

3. How will the Cavaliers use their lottery pick after selecting guards in 2018 and 2019?

About a month ago, Killian Hayes‘ agent dropped an interesting tidbit during a podcast appearance, suggesting that his client wasn’t planning to meet with the Cavaliers, since the Cavs aren’t expected to draft a guard in this year’s lottery.

On one hand, that makes sense — in Sexton and Garland, Cleveland has two potential long-term building blocks. On the other hand, those two guards haven’t really shown enough in the last two years to convince the franchise that the backcourt is set for the next five or 10 years. Armed with a top-six pick, the Cavs should perhaps still be in best-player-available mode in this year’s draft, even if that player is another guard.

If the Cavs do make an effort to avoid drafting another guard, it would narrow their options in the lottery. James Wiseman and Onyeka Okongwu are the top centers available and could appeal to Cleveland. However, the wing looks like the team’s most glaring need.

Zeroing in on a wing would mean the Cavs would be doing plenty of homework on the likes of Deni Avdija, Obi Toppin, Isaac Okoro, and Devin Vassell. There’s no real consensus among draft experts on how to rank those players, as they all have their own strengths and weaknesses. Vassell is the best shooter of the bunch, while Okoro is probably the strongest defender. Avdija has promising play-making ability, while Toppin – who is more of a power forward – is one of the draft’s most intriguing athletes.

Obviously, the Cavs’ pick will depend in large part on where they land in the draft and which players are available when they’re on the clock. But if the team prefers a wing, it would be interesting to see what general manager Koby Altman does if he lands a top-two pick. Would the Cavs consider trading down a little if another team wants to move up for a guard like LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards?

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

August 5th, 2020 at 3:35pm CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

  • All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
  • Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
  • Notifications. For any team or player, you can set up push notifications to ensure you always get breaking news instantly. Notifications can also be set up at the sport level.
  • Commenting. You can read and contribute comments on the app seamlessly.
  • Customer service. If you find a bug, we’ll fix it. If you have a feature request, we’ll consider it. The app is continually evolving and improving.
  • Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!
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Community Shootaround: Western Conference Playoff Race

August 5th, 2020 at 9:59am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA’s restart got underway last Thursday, the Grizzlies were in the driver’s seat for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, with at least a 3.5-game cushion on each of their five potential challengers. However, a slow start from the Grizzlies – who have lost three consecutive games to teams chasing them – has created a fascinating, wide-open race for that final playoff spot in the West.

After an 0-3 start, Memphis’ lead for that No. 8 spot is down to 1.5 games, and all five of their challengers are now within 3.5 games. To make matters worse, the Grizzlies will be without key big man Jaren Jackson Jr. for the rest of the season due to a meniscus tear, and the team’s schedule isn’t getting any easier. Contests against Utah, Oklahoma City, Toronto, Boston, and Milwaukee are on tap for the Grizzlies, who will have to hope that some of those Eastern teams are locked into their seeds by the last week of the season and decide to rest some starters.

The Trail Blazers, who currently hold the No. 9 spot, have looked like the biggest threat to Memphis so far in Orlando. With Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins healthy again, Portland is nearly at full strength and has recorded impressive wins over the Grizzlies and Rockets, sandwiching a tough loss to Boston. The Blazers are only a year removed from appearing in the Western Conference Finals. After struggling for much of the season, they’ve recently played more like the 2018/19 squad than the team that went 29-37 before the hiatus.

The Spurs and Suns have also looked rejuvenated since the season resumed. They own a combined 5-1 record so far, with the only blemish coming on Monday, when San Antonio lost a 132-130 heart-breaker to Philadelphia. The Spurs were four games out of the playoffs when the restart began, and the Suns were six games back, but they’re now within just two games and three games, respectively.

The Pelicans got off to a slow start last week, but their schedule is so forgiving that they’re still in a pretty good position to push for the No. 8 or 9 seed. After beating the Grizzlies on Monday, the Pelicans will play their final five seeding games against teams with losing records — Washington, San Antonio, Orlando, and Sacramento (twice). With Zion Williamson rounding into form, New Orleans has the most favorable schedule of any Western playoff contender.

Of course, those two games against the Kings loom large. Sacramento has been one of the summer’s most disappointing teams so far, having lost winnable games to San Antonio, Orlando, and Dallas. But the Kings are still just 3.5 games back of the Grizzlies and aren’t dead yet — those two games against the Pelicans will be massive, and Friday’s matchup against Brooklyn is certainly favorable.

No matter what happens over the next week-and-a-half, it looks like a near certainty at this point that we’ll get a play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed. The No. 8 team can only avoid a play-in tournament by finishing more than four games ahead of the No. 9 team, and right now even the 13th-seeded Kings are withing four games of Memphis.

Positioning will be crucial though. Only two teams can participate in that play-in tournament, so finishing 10th means little. Conversely, finishing in eighth place is massive, since it means only having to win once in the play-in tournament, rather than twice. At this point, there’s no guarantee the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 spot entering a play-in tournament — there’s even a chance they could slip to 10th or lower.

We want to know where you stand on the Western Conference playoff race. Has your opinion changed at all through the first six days of summer games? Which two teams do you think we’ll see in a play-in tournament? Which club do you expect to ultimately claim the No. 8 seed and face the Lakers in the first round of the postseason?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Poll: Lakers Vs. Clippers

July 31st, 2020 at 11:53am CST by Luke Adams

Following Thursday’s game at the NBA campus in Orlando, the Lakers and Clippers have now faced each other four times this season, with each team winning a pair of those games.

Los Angeles’ teams are widely viewed as the top two contenders to make it out of the Western Conference and compete in the NBA Finals this fall. While a challenger like the Nuggets, Jazz, or Rockets could break up the all-L.A. party, the Lakers and Clippers are on track to play on opposite sides of the West bracket in the postseason, putting them on a collision course to meet in the Western Finals.

Assuming the two L.A. teams do meet again in the playoffs and we haven’t seen the last of the LeBron James/Anthony Davis vs. Kawhi Leonard/Paul George showdowns of the 2019/20 season, we want to know what you expect to happen in a best-of-seven series between the Lakers and Clippers.

The Lakers had the last word on Thursday night, as a last-minute LeBron put-back proved to be the game-winner in a 103-101 victory. But the Clippers were missing key players like Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. The Clips were +16 in minutes that Leonard played, and having second-unit standouts like Williams and Harrell available could have made those non-Kawhi minutes more manageable.

On the other hand, it’s not like we saw the Lakers at their best either. James and Davis combined to go 14-of-38 from the field, showing some rust after not playing real games in over four-and-a-half months. The club is also still experimenting with its summer rotation and will likely continue to do so until everyone – including the players who arrived in Orlando late – is up to full speed.

Another point worth considering: The Lakers have all but clinched the No. 1 seed, but their lack of home court advantage over the Clippers at Walt Disney World may be even more meaningful in an all-L.A. series than it would be in other series — if every game were played at Staples Center, the Lakers might end up with a de facto home court advantage for the entire series, as their fans often show up en masse at Clippers “home” games. That won’t happen on a neutral court in Orlando.

What do you think? After watching the Lakers and Clippers face each other four times this season, which team would you pick to win a seven-game postseason series? Do you fully expect the two L.A. teams to meet again in the playoffs, or will one of them falter before the Western Finals?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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NBA Summer Restart Primer

July 30th, 2020 at 9:47am CST by Luke Adams

During the 2019 NBA offseason, the league went 131 days between games, from Game 6 of the 2018/19 NBA Finals on June 13 to opening night of the ’19/20 regular season on October 22.

Since the coronavirus pandemic shut down the ’19/20 season on March 11, the league has gone 141 days between games, meaning we’ve waited more than the length of an offseason for the NBA season to resume.

That resumption date is finally here though. The league’s summer restart – its “re-opening night” – will tip off on Thursday, with a Jazz/Pelicans matchup followed by a Lakers/Clippers showdown.

In preparation for the NBA’s return, here’s what you need to know:

The Plan

We provided a full breakdown of the NBA’s return-to-play plan back in June, but here’s the abridged version: Rather than having teams travel from city to city to play games in empty home arenas amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the league has gathered its top 22 teams in one place, at Walt Disney World in Florida.

There, those 22 teams will play eight “seeding games” apiece at The Arena, HP Field House, and Visa Athletic Center, three facilities that are part of the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex at Disney. Those seeding games essentially function as regular season games and – when combined with each team’s pre-hiatus record – will determine the final standings.

From there, the top seven teams in each conference will make the postseason. The eighth seed in each conference will be determined by a play-in tournament if the No. 9 team is within four games of the No. 8 team. In that scenario, the two teams would essentially play a best-of-three series, with the No. 8 staked to a 1-0 head start. If the No. 9 club isn’t within four games of the No. 8 club, the No. 8 team automatically claims the final playoff spot.

The postseason will begin on August 17 and will move forward as usual, with best-of-seven series in each round. The NBA Finals will potentially end as late as October 13, with the draft and free agency to follow shortly thereafter.

The Schedule

When the NBA suspended its season in March, teams had about 15-18 games left on their respective schedules. They’ll only play eight more this summer, meaning about half of their remaining matchups have been excised from the schedule.

The fact that the league’s bottom eight teams weren’t invited to the restart made it easy to remove a number of games from the schedule, and the NBA did its best to put together the remaining slate based on games each club originally had on tap for March and April.

As a result, some teams have a tougher road this summer than others. The Grizzlies, who are attempting to hold onto the No. 8 spot in the West, will open their schedule with games against three teams chasing them – the Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Pelicans – before facing the Jazz and Thunder and then closing out their summer slate against the East’s top three seeds, the Raptors, Celtics, and Bucks.

The Pelicans, meanwhile, have a softer schedule as they look to catch up to Memphis. After opening with a pair of tough matchups against Utah and the Clippers, their final six games are against sub-.500 teams.

Seeding games will take place over the next 16 days, concluding on August 14. That will leave room for potential play-in games on August 15 and 16 before the postseason begins in earnest on August 17.

From there, you can budget about two weeks for each round. The tentative start dates for the second and third rounds are August 31 and September 15, respectively, with the NBA Finals on track to begin on September 30.

The full schedule for the seeding games can be found right here.

The Standings

Here’s what the standings in each of the two conferences look like heading into the seeding games:

Eastern Conference:

  1. Milwaukee Bucks (53-12)
  2. Toronto Raptors (46-18)
  3. Boston Celtics (43-21)
  4. Miami Heat (41-24)
  5. Indiana Pacers (39-26)
  6. Philadelphia 76ers (39-26)
  7. Brooklyn Nets (30-34)
  8. Orlando Magic (30-35)
  9. Washington Wizards (24-40)

Western Conference:

  1. Los Angeles Lakers (49-14)
  2. Los Angeles Clippers (44-20)
  3. Denver Nuggets (43-22)
  4. Utah Jazz (41-23)
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (40-24)
  6. Houston Rockets (40-24)
  7. Dallas Mavericks (40-27)
  8. Memphis Grizzlies (32-33)
  9. Portland Trail Blazers (29-37)
  10. New Orleans Pelicans (28-36)
  11. Sacramento Kings (28-36)
  12. San Antonio Spurs (27-36)
  13. Phoenix Suns (26-39)

With home court advantage no longer a real consideration, certain seeding races will lose a bit of their luster, but positioning is still important. For example, while the Celtics won’t be motivated to catch the Raptors for the No. 2 spot in the East in order to gain home court advantage in a potential second round matchup, moving up in the standings would allow them to avoid a tough first-round series against a team like Indiana or Philadelphia.

The middle of the pack in each conference will be worth watching for seeding purposes, and it will also be interesting to see if any of the Western Conference challengers can pull away from the pack to challenge the Grizzlies for the No. 8 seed. Don’t forget — even if the Pelicans or Kings were to finish within four games of Memphis, it wouldn’t do them any good if they don’t also pass the Trail Blazers. Only the No. 9 seed gets to participate in a play-in tournament.

The Rosters

Not every team will pick up right where it left off in March in terms of its roster makeup. For some teams, that’s a good thing.

The Raptors, for instance, should have a fully healthy roster for the first time since the fall. The Trail Blazers will have Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins playing together in their frontcourt for the first time all season. The Magic should have standout defender Jonathan Isaac back in their lineup for the first time since January 1.

For other teams though, the hiatus took a toll. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving remain sidelined with injuries for the Nets, who will also be missing Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan, Taurean Prince, Wilson Chandler, and Nicolas Claxton due to a combination of injuries, opt-outs, and positive COVID-19 tests.

The Wizards, likewise, will be shorthanded this summer — star guards Bradley Beal and John Wall are recovering from injuries, while sharpshooter Davis Bertans opted out due to health concerns prior to his upcoming free agency.

The full list of rosters can be found right here. We’re also tracking players who have opted out or been ruled out due to the coronavirus, and the substitute players who have been signed to replace them.

During the seeding games, teams can continue to sign substitute players to replace anyone who voluntarily opts out or contracts the coronavirus. After the seeding games end in mid-August, players who test positive for COVID-19 can be replaced, but substitute players must have no more than three years of NBA experience.

The Storylines

We’re leaving this section to you. Which storylines will you be keeping a close eye on in the coming weeks?

Do you expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to win his first title, Kawhi Leonard to win his third, or LeBron James to win his fourth? Do you view a team like the Rockets or Sixers as a dark-horse championship contender if they can put it all together? Do you believe Zion Williamson or Damian Lillard can lead their respective teams to a playoff berth? Or will you simply be most interested in finding out if the NBA’s “bubble” experiment actually holds up for the next two-plus months?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the most intriguing storylines of the NBA’s restart!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Waivers

July 28th, 2020 at 7:02pm CST by Luke Adams

When a team releases a player, he doesn’t immediately become a free agent. Instead, the player is placed on waivers, which serves as a sort of temporary holding ground as the other 29 NBA teams decide if they want to try to add him to their roster.

A player remains on waivers for at least 48 hours after he is formally cut by his team. During that time, a team can place a waiver claim in an attempt to acquire the player. If two or more clubs place a claim, the team with the worst record takes priority (before December 1, records from the previous season determine waiver order).

If a team claims a player off waivers, it assumes his current contract and is on the hook for the remainder of his salary. The claiming team also pays a $1,000 fee to the NBA office. If no claims are placed on the player, he clears waivers at 4:00 pm CT two days after his release (or three days later, if he was cut after 4:00 pm CT) and becomes an unrestricted free agent.

While the waiver format is simple enough, not every team will have the salary cap flexibility to make a claim for any waived player it wants. There are only a handful of instances in which a club is able to claim a player off waivers:

  • The team is far enough under the salary cap to fit the player’s entire salary.
  • The team has a traded player exception worth at least the player’s salary.
  • The team has a disabled player exception worth at least the player’s salary, and he’s in the last year of his contract.
  • The player’s contract is for one or two seasons and he’s paid the minimum salary.
  • The player is on a two-way contract.

Since most NBA teams go over the cap and sizable TPEs and DPEs are somewhat rare, the majority of players who are claimed off waivers are either on minimum salary contracts or two-way deals. Claiming those players simply requires an open roster slot.

More often than not though, waived players go unclaimed. In that case, the player’s original team remains on the hook for the rest of his salary. Unless the player is in the final year of his contract and is waived after August 31, his club has the option of “stretching” his remaining cap hit(s) over multiple years using the stretch provision, which we explain in a separate glossary entry. A team that waives a player and uses the stretch provision on him cannot re-acquire that player until after his contract would have originally expired.

In the case of any player without a fully guaranteed contract, the non-guaranteed portion of a player’s salary is removed from a club’s cap immediately once the player is waived.

When a player is “bought out” by his club, he’s placed on waivers as part of the agreement. He and his team agree to adjust the guaranteed portion of his contract, reducing the amount owed to the player by the team, assuming he clears waivers.

Here are several more notes related to waiver rules:

  • Players can be waived and claimed off waivers during the July moratorium (or, in 2020, during the October moratorium).
  • A player waived after March 1 is ineligible for the postseason if he signs with a new team.
  • A player on an expiring contract can’t be waived between the end of the regular season and the start of the next league year.
  • A player claimed off waivers can’t be traded for 30 days. If he’s claimed during the offseason, he can’t be traded until the 30th day of the regular season.
  • If a player is traded and then is waived by his new team, he cannot re-sign with his old club until one year after the trade or until the July 1 after his original contract would have expired, whichever is earlier.
  • A player who has Early Bird or full Bird rights retains Early Bird rights if he’s claimed off waivers.
  • If a team makes a successful waiver claim, it doesn’t lose its spot in the waiver order — the 30th-ranked team at the end of a season remains atop the waiver priority list until December 1 of that year, even if that team makes multiple offseason claims.
  • A team with a full roster can submit a waiver claim and wouldn’t have to clear a spot on its roster for a claimed player until it is determined that the claim is successful.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012 and 2018.

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Revisiting 2019/20 NBA Over/Under Predictions

July 23rd, 2020 at 3:48pm CST by Luke Adams

Before the 2019/20 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Bucks (57.5 wins) to the Hornets (23.5), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

Unfortunately, one effect of the stoppage caused by the coronavirus pandemic was to ensure that no NBA team will actually play a full 82-game schedule this season, which means many of those over/under predictions won’t be resolved.

If you had bet on a team’s win total at a Vegas casino or a major sportsbook, the abridged season may have resulted in your bet being voided. But since our predictions were just for fun, we might as well take a look back at them to see which ones were on track to be right or wrong — and which ones were still very much up in the air when the season was suspended in March.

Let’s dive in…

Eastern Conference

Picks that were on pace to be right:

Our voters seemingly had a much better handle on the Central than on the other two Eastern divisions, accurately picking four of five Central over/unders while only nailing one team in the Atlantic and one in the Southeast.

Of these six teams, the Bucks and Heat were virtual locks to surpass their projected win totals and hit the over. The Pacers would have had to go 7-10 down the stretch to miss their over, while the Bulls would’ve had to go 12-5 to avoid the under — neither was particularly likely.

The Knicks and Cavaliers were the only two that were really up in the air here. They only would’ve had to go 7-9 and 6-11, respectively, to exceed their projections. That wouldn’t have been out of the question.

Picks that were on pace to be wrong:

The Atlantic didn’t play out like our voters expected this season, with the Raptors and Celtics outperforming regular-season expectations, while the Sixers and Nets were on track to fall short of theirs.

The bottom of the conference was a bit of a mess as well. The Wizards and Hornets were expected to be among the East’s worst teams, but weren’t quite as bad as anticipated. The Pistons and Hawks, meanwhile, fell short of their goals for the season in part because they were without key frontcourt players (Blake Griffin and John Collins) for big chunks of the year.

In the middle, the Magic still had a chance to get to 42 wins if they’d been able to recapture their end-of-season form from 2018/19, when they followed a 20-31 start with a 22-9 finish.

Western Conference

Picks that were on pace to be right:

Some of these were pretty close calls. The Clippers were on pace to win 56 games; the Nuggets were on track to get to 54 victories; the Jazz were on pace to get to 53 wins; the Rockets were on track to win 51 games; and the Pelicans‘ soft end-of-season schedule would given them a realistic chance to get to 40+ wins.

Other predictions were more comfortable victories though. The Lakers and Mavericks were projected to blow past their preseason over/under numbers, and the Timberwolves would’ve had to finish the season on a 17-1 run to avoid falling short of their projected win total.

Importantly, eight teams are listed in this section, which means our voters had a winning record on their Western Conference picks!

Picks that were on pace to be wrong:

We were way off on the Thunder, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Warriors, who had already clinched their respective overs or unders even before the season went on hiatus. The Kings and Suns, at least, probably would have finished in the relative vicinity of their preseason projections.

For a second straight season, our readers finished with a 14-16 record in their over/under picks, though this year definitely comes with an asterisk — maybe we can talk ourselves into believing we would’ve gotten to at least .500 if the season had played out in full.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Which Top FAs Will Change Teams This Fall?

July 16th, 2020 at 3:54pm CST by Luke Adams

On Wednesday, we published the latest iteration of our 2020 NBA free agent power rankings, with Lakers big man Anthony Davis and Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram atop the list.

Davis and Ingram have something in common, besides having been traded for one another last summer and becoming Western Conference All-Stars together in February — neither player is likely to change teams this fall when he reaches the open market.

Davis will be an unrestricted free agent, but there’s no compelling reason for him to leave Los Angeles. The Lakers were the team he wanted to join when he first requested a trade out of New Orleans, and his first year in L.A. has been a massive success. Despite the unusual circumstances created by the coronavirus pandemic, the Lakers remain in position to secure the No. 1 seed in the West and are one of a handful of teams with a legit chance to win the 2020 championship.

Ingram, meanwhile, will be a restricted free agent at season’s end, meaning the Pelicans will have the opportunity to control the process by matching any offer sheet he signs. It’s possible a rival suitor will put some pressure on the Pels if they don’t put the max on the table, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which New Orleans simply lets its rising young star get away. Sources within the Pelicans front office recently reiterated to ESPN that they consider Ingram a key cornerstone piece going forward.

If Davis and Ingram stay with their respective clubs, that means someone a little further down on our power rankings will become the top free agent to change teams this offseason.

That player seems unlikely to be Kings swingman Bogdan Bogdanovic or Timberwolves guard Malik Beasley, both of whom will be restricted. The Wizards have expressed strong interest in re-signing Davis Bertans and I’d expect the Raptors to work just as hard to retain Fred VanVleet, but perhaps an exorbitant outside offer could sway one of them away from his incumbent team?

How about Clippers center Montrezl Harrell or Thunder forward Danilo Gallinari? The Clips already have $109MM in guaranteed money on next season’s cap and may be reluctant to spend big to retain all three of their key frontcourt free-agents-to-be (Harris, Marcus Morris, and JaMychal Green). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, is positioned for a possible rebuild in 2021 and might not view Gallinari as part of its future plans.

Joe Harris (Nets), Serge Ibaka (Raptors), Morris (Clippers), Jerami Grant (Nuggets), Christian Wood (Pistons), and Paul Millsap (Nuggets) are among the next unrestricted free agents on our list who are candidates to change teams if the right opportunity materializes.

We want to know what you think. Who do you believe will be the best free agent to change teams this fall? Do you expect a lot of movement among top free agents, or do you think most of them are more likely to stay with their current clubs? If they do change teams, where do you see them landing?

Head below to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery

July 16th, 2020 at 9:30am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s draft lottery, which takes place annually between the end of the regular season and the draft, is the league’s way of determining the draft order and disincentivizing second-half tanking. The lottery gives each of the 14 non-playoff teams – or whichever clubs hold those teams’ first-round picks – a chance to land one of the top four selections in the draft.

Although the top four picks of each draft are up for grabs via the lottery, the remaining order is determined by record, worst to best. The league’s worst team isn’t guaranteed a top-four spot in the draft, but is tied for the best chance to land the first overall pick and will receive the fifth overall selection at worst.

The first four picks are determined by a draw of ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14. Four balls are drawn, resulting in a total of 1,001 possible outcomes. 1,000 of those outcomes are assigned to the 14-non playoff teams — for instance, if balls numbered 4, 7, 8, and 13 were chosen, that combination would belong to one of the 14 lottery teams. The 1,001st combination remains unassigned, and a re-draw would occur if it were ever selected.

The team whose combination is drawn first receives the number one overall pick, and the process is repeated to determine picks two, three, and four. The 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are all assigned a specific number of combinations, as follows (worst to best):

  1. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the first overall pick
  2. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  3. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  4. 125 combinations, 12.5%
  5. 105 combinations, 10.5%
  6. 90 combinations, 9.0%
  7. 75 combinations, 7.5%
  8. 60 combinations, 6.0%
  9. 45 combinations, 4.5%
  10. 30 combinations, 3.0%
  11. 20 combinations, 2.0%
  12. 15 combinations, 1.5%
  13. 10 combinations, 1.0%
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5%

If two lottery teams finish the season with identical records, each team receives an equal chance at a top-four pick by averaging the total amount of outcomes for their two positions. For instance, if two teams tie for the league’s fourth-worst record, each club would receive 115 combinations and an 11.5% chance at the first overall pick — an average of the 125 and 105 combinations that the fourth- and fifth-worst teams receive.

If the average amount of combinations for two positions isn’t a whole number, a coin flip determines which team receives the extra combination. For example, if two clubs tied for the league’s third-worst record, the team that wins the coin flip would receive 133 of 1,000 chances at the first overall pick, while the loser would receive 132. The coin flip also determines which team will draft higher in the event that neither club earns a top-four pick.

The table below displays the odds for each lottery team, rounded to one decimal place. Seeds are listed in the left column, while the picks are noted along the top row. For our purposes, the first seed is the NBA’s worst team.

Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
2 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
3 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
4 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
6 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
7 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
8 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
9 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
10 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
11 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
12 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
13 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – 92.9 2.3
14 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

It’s worth noting that the NBA’s lottery format was changed in 2019, with that year’s draft representing the first one that used the new system. Previously, only the top three spots were determined via the lottery and the odds were weighted more in favor of the league’s worst teams.

The odds-smoothing effects of the new system were felt immediately. The Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers – who claimed the Nos. 1, 2, and 4 picks, respectively, in 2019 – each ranked outside of the top six in the initial lottery standings.

In 2020, the lottery format has been tweaked slightly to account for the fact that the NBA was unable to play out its full regular season. The eight teams that were not invited to Orlando to participate in the resumption of the season will receive the top eight spots in the lottery standings. The final six spots will go to the six clubs that don’t make the postseason in Orlando, sorted by their records through March 11.

We previously broke down what the 2020 lottery odds will look like if the Nets, Magic, and Grizzlies all hang onto their playoff spots. This year’s event has been postponed until August 25.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Tankathon.com and Wikipedia was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012, 2013, and 2019.

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2020 NBA Free Agent Power Rankings 3.0

July 15th, 2020 at 3:00pm CST by Luke Adams

A lot has changed since we published the second installment of our 2020 NBA free agent power rankings at the end of January. One player who showed up on that list (Dillon Brooks) has since signed a contract extension, taking himself off the 2020 market. More importantly though, the coronavirus pandemic has upended the NBA season and changed the landscape of the ’20 offseason.

In a normal year, most or all of the free agents on our last list would have come off the board by now, reaching contract agreements with new teams or their old clubs shortly after the negotiation period opened on June 30. Now though, the new league year has been pushed back to the fall — the 2020 free agent negotiating period won’t open until October 18.

Additionally, the stoppage forced by COVID-19 and the uncertainty surrounding the 2020/21 season will result in next season’s salary cap coming in lower than initially expected, and many teams around the NBA figure to tighten their purse strings when it comes to free agent spending. That means that the majority of the veterans who hold lucrative player options for ’20/21 are far more likely to simply exercise those options than to try their luck on the open market.

As a result, we’re taking many of the players that were on the last version of our FA power rankings off our list this time around. Andre Drummond, Gordon Hayward, DeMar DeRozan, Evan Fournier, and Tim Hardaway are among the players we’re now projecting to opt into the final year of their respective contracts rather than becoming free agents this fall.

As always, this list reflects each player’s current expected value on the 2020 free agent market, rather than a their present-day on-court contributions. For instance, an older player like Marc Gasol has strong short-term value, but didn’t crack our top 20 because he’s entering his age-36 season and is unlikely to sign a lucrative multiyear deal. In other words, age and long-term value are important.

If you need a refresher on which players will be free agents this fall, be sure to check out our FA lists sorted by position/type and by team.

With all that in mind, here’s the third installment of our 2020 free agent power rankings:

  1. Anthony Davis, F/C, Lakers (player option): Davis is the one player who remains a lock to turn down his option for 2020/21 — the cap would have to dip below $96MM for his $28.75MM option salary to be worth more than the 30% max he’d earn as a free agent. He also seems extremely likely to stick with the Lakers, given the team’s success this season, meaning the only mystery left is whether he’ll sign a short- or long-term deal.
  2. Brandon Ingram, F, Pelicans (RFA): Besides Davis, Ingram is the best bet of any free agent this fall to sign a maximum-salary contract. Despite his looming payday, the Pelicans forward said he never considered sitting out the NBA’s restart this summer as his team prepares to push for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference.
  3. Fred VanVleet, G, Raptors: VanVleet has 76 career NBA starts under his belt, so his placement at No. 3 on this list is perhaps an indictment of the 2020 free agent class as a whole. Don’t sleep on his earning potential though. Rebuilding teams with cap room and a need at point guard – such as the Pistons or Knicks – may view the 26-year-old as an ideal long-term answer, given his abilities as a shooter, play-maker, and defender, which could force the Raptors into a bidding war.
  4. Montrezl Harrell, C, Clippers: Like VanVleet, Harrell is just 26 years old, meaning potential suitors can be pretty confident they’ll be getting his prime seasons even at the end of a four-year offer. Harrell’s per-36-minute production in his contract year (24.1 PPG, 9.2 RPG) has been better than ever, making him an intriguing long-term investment for a club in need of help up front.
  5. Bogdan Bogdanovic, G/F, Kings (RFA): The Kings’ trade-deadline moves, which included moving Dewayne Dedmon‘s pricey multiyear contract for a pair of expiring deals, suggest the team will prioritize locking up Bogdanovic to a new contract this fall. Bogdanovic made a strong impression in the weeks before the NBA season was suspended, moving into Sacramento’s starting lineup without his production missing a beat.
  6. Davis Bertans, F, Wizards: Unlike everyone else on this list, Bertans decided not to participate in the NBA’s restart this summer, citing his history of ACL injuries when he opted out. Still, the decision shouldn’t hurt Bertans’ value on the open market — his .424 3PT% on 8.7 three-point attempts per game make him one of the game’s most valuable stretch fours. The Wizards reportedly want to re-sign him, but they’ll likely face stiff competition.
  7. Malik Beasley, G, Timberwolves (RFA): No one saw his free agency value affected more significantly by a trade-deadline deal than Beasley, who went from an inconsistent bench piece in Denver to a full-time starter and key contributor in Minnesota. Beasley’s performance in 14 post-deadline contests (20.7 PPG and 5.1 RPG with a .426 3PT%) was a double-edged sword for the Timberwolves, who had to feel great about their decision to acquire Beasley and a little less great about his rising price tag.
  8. Danilo Gallinari, F, Thunder: Gallinari’s age (32 in August) and injury history work against his odds of securing a lucrative long-term deal, but he has been one of the NBA’s most reliable frontcourt scorers over the last couple years, averaging 19.5 PPG on .452/.421/.897 shooting since the start of the 2018/19 season.
  9. Joe Harris, G/F, Nets: Three-point shooting is more important than ever in the modern NBA and few players do it better than Harris, who has made 43.6% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last three seasons.
  10. Serge Ibaka, F/C, Raptors: Ibaka, who turns 31 in September, isn’t the rim-protecting menace he was during his days with the Thunder, when he led the NBA in blocks in consecutive seasons. But he’s still a strong interior defender who can hold his own on switches and contributes on offense — his .398 3PT% in 2019/20 is a career high and will certainly appeal to potential suitors.
  11. Marcus Morris, F, Clippers: Morris was a little shaky in his first 12 games with the Clippers following a deadline deal — his scoring average was cut in half and his percentages dipped to 38.6% from the floor and 28.3% from three. Still, when taking into account the eye-popping numbers he was posting in New York, his full-season stats are strong, and he’s capable of defending offensive-minded forwards.
  12. Jerami Grant, F, Nuggets (player option): It took some time for Grant to adjust to his new team, but he showed in the two months leading up to the hiatus why the Nuggets were willing to surrender a first-round pick for him last summer. In his last 26 games, Grant averaged 14.0 PPG on .481/.420/.785 shooting, and the Nuggets were better with him on the court than off it.
  13. Christian Wood, F/C, Pistons: Wood played well through the season on a per-minute basis. However, he didn’t secure a spot on this list until he entered the starting lineup following the trade deadline and kept up his strong per-minute production while taking on a larger role. In his last 13 games, he posted 22.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 1.0 BPG, and a shooting line of .562/.400/.757. Now he’ll enter unrestricted free agency at age 25.
  14. Paul Millsap, F, Nuggets: I left Millsap off the first two iterations of our 2020 free agent power rankings due to the fact that he’ll turn 36 next February. But the more I see of him this season, the more I’m convinced he’ll still receive a nice payday on a two- or three-year deal this fall. His .440 3PT% is a career high and his impact on the Nuggets’ defense shouldn’t be overlooked. The club has a 102.2 defensive rating when Millsap plays, compared to 110.7 when he doesn’t.
  15. Hassan Whiteside, C, Trail Blazers: Whiteside’s impressive individual statistics don’t always translate to team success, but he deserves credit for the impact he’s had in Portland this season. His 3.1 blocks per game lead the NBA and his 14.2 rebounds per contest rank second. The Blazers have missed Jusuf Nurkic, but Whiteside has been as strong a replacement as the team could have realistically hoped for.
  16. Derrick Favors, C, Pelicans: The former third overall pick will never be an All-Star, but he’s still just 29 years old and has established himself as a reliable defender and rebounder (he’s averaging a career-best 9.9 RPG this season). While certain free agents get paid based on their potential ceiling, Favors’ value stems from his relatively high floor.
  17. Derrick Jones, F, Heat: Jones will reach unrestricted free agency at age 23, which is pretty uncommon for a rotation player on a top-four team in a conference. His numbers don’t jump off the page and his lack of a three-point shot will limit his value this fall. However, Jones is a tremendous athlete and a strong perimeter defender who still has room to improve.
  18. Tristan Thompson, C, Cavaliers: Thompson had one of his best seasons in 2019/20, averaging a double-double (12.0 PPG, 10.1 RPG) with a career-high in APG (2.1). He doesn’t necessarily have the versatility or shooting ability that teams would like to see from their bigs, but his skill set has value and he still has some prime years left.
  19. De’Anthony Melton, G, Grizzlies (RFA): It can be tricky to identify which second- or third-tier restricted free agent will do the best on the open market, since it only takes one suitor to drive up a player’s price. Fellow RFAs Jakob Poeltl and Dario Saric could certainly get better offers this fall than Melton, but I’m a big fan of the Grizzlies guard, an excellent perimeter defender whose +6.2 net rating this season is easily the best mark on the team.
  20. Aron Baynes, C, Suns: I was a little surprised that I ended up finding a spot on this list for Baynes, who will turn 34 this December and has never earned more than $6.5MM in a season. Perhaps I’m slightly overrating his strong season in Phoenix, but the big man showed an ability to score (11.5 PPG) and shoot (.351 3PT%) that he hadn’t before. Already a terrific screen-setter and strong defender, Baynes may be in line for the most lucrative contract of his career this fall. Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard, and Jordan Clarkson were among the other candidates for this last spot.

As I noted in the intro, there are some veterans who would earn a spot on this list – or would at least receive consideration – if they turn down player options and become free agents. At this point, I think they’re unlikely to do so, but not all of them are a lock to opt in. Here are some of the most notable names in that group with player options for 2020/21:

  • Avery Bradley, G, Lakers ($5,005,350)
  • Mike Conley, G, Jazz ($34,502,132)
  • DeMar DeRozan, G, Spurs ($27,739,975)
  • Andre Drummond, C, Cavaliers ($28,751,774)
  • Evan Fournier, G/F, Magic ($17,150,000)
  • Tim Hardaway Jr., G/F, Mavericks ($18,975,000)
  • Gordon Hayward, F, Celtics ($34,187,085)

Disagree strongly with any of our rankings? Feel like we omitted any players that should be in the top 20? Weigh in below in the comments section to let us know!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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