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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

August 7th, 2020 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Atlanta Hawks.

Salary Cap Outlook

With so much uncertainty surrounding the 2020/21 salary cap, it’s impossible to say exactly how much space the Hawks will have. But they currently project to have more flexibility than virtually any other team in the NBA.

Even if the cap remains the same as it was in ’19/20, Atlanta could comfortably get to $43MM+ in room, depending on where the team’s lottery pick lands. Once they use up all that space, the Hawks will have the room exception available — it’d be worth $4.77MM if the cap doesn’t increase.

Our full salary cap preview for the Hawks can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 4 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Hawks have the fourth-best lottery odds, but their most likely pick is No. 6 (25.7%). They have a 12.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 48.1% chance at a top-four selection, with No. 5 (7.2%), No. 7 (16.8%), and No. 8 (2.2%) also in play.

Second Round:

  • No. 50 overall pick

The Hawks will receive the more favorable of the Heat’s and Rockets’ second-round picks. That’ll be Miami’s second-rounder, which falls at No. 50 — Houston’s will land in the No. 51-53 range.

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. How will the Hawks use their cap room?

Under general manager Travis Schlenk, the Hawks haven’t been major players in free agency, preferring to hang back and wait for the potential bargains that are available a few days after the league year opens. Atlanta has generally had no shortage of cap space in those years, but has preferred to use it to absorb unwanted contracts to gain extra draft picks.

With the Hawks looking to soon make the transition from rebuilding team to perennial playoff threat, it would seem to be a prime time to adjust their free agency philosophy. With so much space available this fall, Atlanta could theoretically make a major splash, adding a veteran or two who could help push the team’s young core over the top.

While that plan may sound good to team ownership, a couple of practical factors could complicate matters. For one, this year’s free agent class isn’t exactly loaded with stars for the Hawks to target. None of the players at the top of our free agent power rankings are really logical options for Atlanta.

Anthony Davis isn’t leaving L.A.; the Pelicans almost certainly aren’t letting Brandon Ingram get away; Montrezl Harrell doesn’t make sense for a team that just acquired Clint Capela; and Fred VanVleet probably isn’t an ideal partner for Trae Young in what would be a very undersized backcourt. There are players further down that list that could appeal to the Hawks, but investing big long-term money in any of them would be risky.

On top of that, this offseason sets up perfectly for Atlanta to stick with its formula of using cap room to accommodate salary dumps and collect assets. After all, with team owners across the league expected to feel the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, there may be several teams who are looking to cut costs and are willing to part with draft picks to do so.

The Hawks won’t be in asset-gathering mode forever, and they can afford to be a little more aggressive on the free agent market in 2020. But being one of the only teams with maximum-salary cap room doesn’t mean they’ll come out of the offseason with a max-caliber player.

2. Is it time to consolidate assets in a trade?

If the Hawks can’t land a star on the free agent market, could they do so in a trade? They have no shortage of trade chips available if they want to try to make a move, including an extra 2022 first-round pick and a handful of future second-rounders.

Young looks like an obvious keeper, but there’s no one else on the Hawks’ roster that is 100% assured of a long-term stay in Atlanta — the team would surely consider moving the likes of De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, and/or Kevin Huerter if the price is right, and even John Collins was mentioned in trade rumors earlier this year.

Given Young’s ability on offense and lack thereof on defense, the most logical fit for the Hawks would be a two-way wing who can lock down opposing scorers and doesn’t necessarily need to dominate the ball.

Those players aren’t easy to find though, and the most frequent subjects of trade speculation these days don’t quite fit the bill — Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine, for instance, aren’t strong enough defenders to pair with Young. Stars who might’ve made sense for the Hawks in past years when they were unhappy with their situations – such as Jimmy Butler or Paul George – are now in their preferred destinations and likely won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.

The Hawks have done business with the Nets in recent years, and if Brooklyn makes Caris LeVert available this offseason in its search for a third star, that’d be an opportunity worth exploring. Otherwise, it’s hard to find many ideal fits on the trade market if the Hawks want to cash in some chips for an impact wing.

3. Will the Hawks extend John Collins this fall?

Currently, Capela is the only player on the Hawks’ roster who is owed more than $15MM in any future season. He’s also the one who has a fully guaranteed salary beyond 2021, with the exception of the players on their rookie contracts.

However, Atlanta will have to start making major financial decisions on its young talent as early as this offseason, when Collins becomes eligible for his rookie scale extension. There are compelling reasons for the Hawks to wait on a new deal for Collins and equally compelling reasons for the team to get something done this fall.

Waiting until 2021 to make a decision on Collins would give the Hawks a chance to evaluate how their Collins/Capela frontcourt actually looks on the court, since the two big men have yet to play a game together.

Additionally, since Collins has said multiple times in recent months that he feels as if he’s worthy of a maximum-salary contract, it might make more sense to have him fully earn that max deal with a strong contract year rather than handing it to him after a season that started with a 25-game suspension for a drug violation.

Waiting for Collins to reach restricted free agency would also significantly increase the Hawks’ flexibility in 2021. Rather than entering that offseason with a max salary for Collins (likely in the $28-30MM range) already on the books, the team would just have to carry his $12.4MM cap hold — that would create a ton of extra cap flexibility for the Hawks before they go over the cap to re-sign him.

On the other hand, the fact that Collins has so frequently talked about the possibility of an extension suggests it’s important to him to get something finalized sooner rather than later for the sake of security, and Atlanta may not want to risk alienating one of its potential cornerstones.

A handful of factors – that 25-game suspension, a disappointing season for the Hawks, and the NBA’s current financial outlook – may also give the club some leverage to negotiate something below the max for Collins. If he’s open to that possibility, it could save the team some money in the long run. The Celtics and Pacers, for instance, were wise to complete extensions with Jaylen Brown and Domantas Sabonis last fall, since they would’ve been candidates for more lucrative offer sheets this offseason.

Whichever path the Hawks take, it won’t necessarily represent their final decision on whether Collins is a long-term building block for the franchise. Trading him in a year or two will still be possible if he signs an extension, and locking him up in 2021 shouldn’t be a problem even if the two sides don’t agree to an extension this year.

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Possible Head Coaching Changes

August 6th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

When the Knicks launched a search for a new permanent head coach that ultimately led them to Tom Thibodeau, it was considered likely to be the first of multiple NBA coaching hires in 2020. However, it’s no longer clear whether or not that will be the case.

In our 2020 head coaching search tracker, we suggest that the situations in Brooklyn, Houston, and Chicago are among those worth keeping an eye on. Jacque Vaughn was a midseason replacement who was promoted to head coach in March, Mike D’Antoni is on an expiring contract, and Jim Boylen is coming off a disappointing season and being evaluated by a new-look front office.

There’s a possibility that none of those teams makes a change though. Multiple reports this summer have indicated that Vaughn will be given every opportunity to win the Nets‘ permanent job; D’Antoni has handled the Rockets‘ transition to “micro-ball” admirably so far; and Boylen is reportedly gaining momentum to retain the Bulls‘ job.

Today’s report on Boylen noted that financial considerations could be a major factor in the Bulls’ decision, and Chicago probably isn’t the only club in that boat. The coronavirus pandemic will result in major revenue losses for teams across the NBA, so giving an incumbent head coach one more year may look a whole lot more appealing than firing him, hiring a new coach, and paying off multiple contracts.

Additionally, a number of the teams that finished near the bottom of this year’s standings or who have underachieved this season have head coaches who are safe due to their rock-solid résumés (ie. Steve Kerr, Gregg Popovich, and Terry Stotts) or because they’re recent hires who deserve a longer look (ie. Luke Walton and Ryan Saunders).

Even taking into account those caveats, it’s possible we’ll see some coaching changes this summer or fall. Teams that disappoint in Orlando will be worth monitoring. D’Antoni could be back on the hot seat, for instance, if Houston doesn’t win at least a playoff series or two. And it’s hard to imagine Brett Brown returning for another season if the Sixers don’t make it out of the first round.

We want to know what you think. Do you expect to see some more coaching changes happen in 2020, or will be things relatively quiet on that front? If you anticipate changes, which teams do you see making moves?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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2020 NBA Draft Lottery Update

August 6th, 2020 at 2:21pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020 NBA draft lottery, originally scheduled for May 19, will now take place on August 20, two weeks from today. Besides happening three months later than usual, this year’s lottery also figures to look a little different, since the ongoing coronavirus pandemic will almost certainly make it impossible for the NBA to bring representatives from the bottom 14 teams to a single location.

As we wait to see what the league has in mind for this year’s event, here are a few updates and reminders on the 2020 NBA draft lottery:

The bottom eight teams are already locked into their lottery spots

Much has been made in the last 24 hours about the Wizards (24-44), who are participating in the NBA’s summer restart, slipping below the inactive Hornets (23-42) in the Eastern Conference standings.

Fortunately for Hornets fans – and unfortunately for Wizards backers – the lottery odds for those two teams won’t hinge on which team finishes with the better overall record. For the NBA’s bottom eight teams, one silver lining of not getting an invite to Orlando this summer for the restart is that their spot in the top eight of the lottery has been locked in, based on the league standings as of March 11.

The Hornets will have the eighth-best odds and the Bulls will have the seventh-best odds even if the Wizards go 0-8 this summer and fall below both teams in the standings.

The race for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference could impact the lottery odds

With the non-Orlando teams frozen in the top eight lottery positions, the other six spots will be determined by two factors:

  • Which six teams in Orlando don’t make the playoffs.
  • What their records were as of March 11.

This is great news for a team like Phoenix. Having won their first three games in Orlando – as the Grizzlies lost their first four – the Suns are very much alive in the race for the No. 8 seed in the West. It will still take a strong finish and some luck for the Suns to qualify for a play-in tournament, but let’s suppose they do.

In that scenario, if the Suns win the play-in tournament and earn a postseason spot, their first-round pick would be 15th overall, best among the playoff teams, since they entered the hiatus with a 26-39 record, worse than Orlando or Brooklyn.

If they were to lose a play-in tournament, Phoenix would end up with the 10th-best lottery odds, ahead of the rest of Orlando’s non-playoff teams besides the Wizards, who were the only one of the 22 invited teams with a worse record than the Suns as of March 11.

Essentially, if you want to determine the back half of the lottery standings, you just have to sort the 22 teams in Orlando by their March 11 records, from worst to first, then remove the 16 teams that end up in the playoffs.

The Grizzlies could theoretically still keep their first-round pick

The Grizzlies owe their 2020 first-round pick to the Celtics, but it includes top-six protection.

As long as Memphis makes the playoffs, that protection doesn’t really matter — Boston would receive the pick. However, with the Grizzlies’ hold on the No. 8 seed slipping, there’s still an outside chance that they could keep the pick.

Let’s say Memphis falls out of the No. 8 spot and either loses a play-in tournament or altogether misses out on qualifying for a play-in. In that scenario, the Grizzlies would enter the lottery with the 14th-best odds, since they had a better record on March 11 than any of their fellow lottery teams. That would give them a 2.4% chance at moving into the top four, where their pick would be protected.

Those aren’t good odds. In all likelihood, missing the playoffs would just mean the Grizzlies sent the Celtics the No. 14 pick instead of a selection in the 15-17 range. Still, the outside chance at another top pick would at least be a small silver lining if Memphis can’t grab that No. 8 spot. If the Grizzlies do hang onto this year’s pick, they’d owe Boston an unprotected first-rounder in 2021.

Over in the East, the Nets owe a lottery-protected pick to the Timberwolves and would keep it if they fall out of the postseason. However, the Wizards’ struggles have essentially ruled out that possibility. One more Brooklyn win or Washington loss will ensure that the Nets make the playoffs and send their pick to Minnesota.

Current lottery odds

Listed here are the odds for the teams not invited to Orlando, who will hold the top eight spots in the lottery standings.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
GSW 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – –
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – –
MIN 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1 – – – – –
ATL 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2 – – – –
DET 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6 – – –
NYK 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2 – –
CHI 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 –
CHA 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0

The tentative odds for the bottom six spots, assuming the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 seed, can be found right here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

August 5th, 2020 at 3:53pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Cavaliers have approximately $78.4MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2020/21 and will likely add Andre Drummond‘s $28.75MM player option to that figure, reducing their odds of creating any cap room this offseason.

The club should have its full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions available, with breathing room below the luxury tax line.

Our full salary cap preview for the Cavaliers can be found right here.

Roster Decisions To Watch

Options:

  • Andre Drummond, player option: $28,751,774 (Oct. 17 deadline)

Non-Guaranteed Contracts:

Two-Way Contracts:

Free Agents:

2020 Draft Assets

First Round:

  • No. 2 overall pick (pending lottery results)

The Cavaliers have the second-best lottery odds but could easily end up picking as low as No. 5 (27.8%) or No. 6 (20.0%). They have a 14.0% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 52.1% chance at a top-four selection.

Second Round:

  • None

Three Key Offseason Questions

1. What’s the Cavaliers’ plan for Andre Drummond?

When the Cavs acquired Drummond from the Pistons at the trade deadline, the cost wasn’t exactly prohibitive — all it took to land the two-time All-Star was a pair of expiring contracts (belonging to John Henson and Brandon Knight) and a 2023 second-round pick.

For a team that doesn’t typically attract top free agents, paying such a modest price for a productive center like Drummond seemed like a worthwhile investment. However, the deal raised some questions as well. For instance, will Drummond opt into the final year of his contract in 2020/21? Even before the coronavirus pandemic halted the season and complicated the salary cap outlook for next season, the answer to that question appeared to be yes.

With that in mind, did it make sense for Cleveland to sacrifice potential 2020 cap room for Drummond? And how will the acquisition affect incumbent big men like Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson? Does a Love/Drummond frontcourt pairing work? Will Thompson decide to sign elsewhere now that the center spot on Cleveland’s depth chart is a little more crowded?

Although his style of play is perhaps more suited to the NBA of the 1990s or 2000s than today’s modern game, Drummond’s elite rebounding skills and his rim-protecting ability make him a solid contributor, and he’s probably better than any free agent the Cavs could’ve convinced to sign in Cleveland using their cap space this fall.

Still, there are other options for rebuilding teams with cap room, such as taking on unwanted contracts in order to collect additional draft assets. The Cavaliers’ decision to acquire Drummond suggests they’re anxious to be more competitive in the short term. That’s a somewhat risky play, though Drummond’s ability as a rim-runner and lob catcher could help young guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland develop further on offense.

I think evaluating Drummond’s fit in 2020/21 before his potential free agency next offseason is a fairly low-risk approach, but reports have indicated that a multiyear contract extension isn’t out of the question this offseason. I’d be more wary of going that route if I were the Cavs, since I’m unconvinced he’s the long-term answer in the middle for the club.

2. Will perennial trade candidate Kevin Love be moved?

Ever since it became clear in 2018 that LeBron James was leaving Cleveland for a second time, Love has been viewed as a trade candidate. However, the possibility of a deal was complicated by the big-money contract extension he signed in July 2018, just weeks after LeBron’s departure.

That extension will keep Love under contract through 2023 — he still has three years and $91.5MM on the deal after this season. By the time, he inks his next NBA contract, he’ll be entering his age-35 season.

Love’s injury history doesn’t help his trade value. Neither does the fact that his numbers over the last two seasons have only been good, not great, even as he ostensibly became the Cavs’ go-team option with LeBron and Kyrie Irving no longer around.

The Cavs have insisted over and over that they wouldn’t consider a salary-dump deal for Love and would only move him if they get good value – such as first-round draft picks and/or young players – in return. At this point though, especially given how the coronavirus pandemic will affect teams’ financial decisions, Love probably doesn’t warrant such a package from any interested suitor.

It’s possible the Cavs are just playing hardball and don’t really expect much more than a Drummond-esque return for Love. But if they stick to their stated stance, it seems safe to assume that Love won’t be going anywhere anytime soon, since no team will meet Cleveland’s alleged price.

3. How will the Cavaliers use their lottery pick after selecting guards in 2018 and 2019?

About a month ago, Killian Hayes‘ agent dropped an interesting tidbit during a podcast appearance, suggesting that his client wasn’t planning to meet with the Cavaliers, since the Cavs aren’t expected to draft a guard in this year’s lottery.

On one hand, that makes sense — in Sexton and Garland, Cleveland has two potential long-term building blocks. On the other hand, those two guards haven’t really shown enough in the last two years to convince the franchise that the backcourt is set for the next five or 10 years. Armed with a top-six pick, the Cavs should perhaps still be in best-player-available mode in this year’s draft, even if that player is another guard.

If the Cavs do make an effort to avoid drafting another guard, it would narrow their options in the lottery. James Wiseman and Onyeka Okongwu are the top centers available and could appeal to Cleveland. However, the wing looks like the team’s most glaring need.

Zeroing in on a wing would mean the Cavs would be doing plenty of homework on the likes of Deni Avdija, Obi Toppin, Isaac Okoro, and Devin Vassell. There’s no real consensus among draft experts on how to rank those players, as they all have their own strengths and weaknesses. Vassell is the best shooter of the bunch, while Okoro is probably the strongest defender. Avdija has promising play-making ability, while Toppin – who is more of a power forward – is one of the draft’s most intriguing athletes.

Obviously, the Cavs’ pick will depend in large part on where they land in the draft and which players are available when they’re on the clock. But if the team prefers a wing, it would be interesting to see what general manager Koby Altman does if he lands a top-two pick. Would the Cavs consider trading down a little if another team wants to move up for a guard like LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards?

Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

August 5th, 2020 at 3:35pm CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

  • All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
  • Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
  • Notifications. For any team or player, you can set up push notifications to ensure you always get breaking news instantly. Notifications can also be set up at the sport level.
  • Commenting. You can read and contribute comments on the app seamlessly.
  • Customer service. If you find a bug, we’ll fix it. If you have a feature request, we’ll consider it. The app is continually evolving and improving.
  • Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!
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Community Shootaround: Western Conference Playoff Race

August 5th, 2020 at 9:59am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA’s restart got underway last Thursday, the Grizzlies were in the driver’s seat for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, with at least a 3.5-game cushion on each of their five potential challengers. However, a slow start from the Grizzlies – who have lost three consecutive games to teams chasing them – has created a fascinating, wide-open race for that final playoff spot in the West.

After an 0-3 start, Memphis’ lead for that No. 8 spot is down to 1.5 games, and all five of their challengers are now within 3.5 games. To make matters worse, the Grizzlies will be without key big man Jaren Jackson Jr. for the rest of the season due to a meniscus tear, and the team’s schedule isn’t getting any easier. Contests against Utah, Oklahoma City, Toronto, Boston, and Milwaukee are on tap for the Grizzlies, who will have to hope that some of those Eastern teams are locked into their seeds by the last week of the season and decide to rest some starters.

The Trail Blazers, who currently hold the No. 9 spot, have looked like the biggest threat to Memphis so far in Orlando. With Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins healthy again, Portland is nearly at full strength and has recorded impressive wins over the Grizzlies and Rockets, sandwiching a tough loss to Boston. The Blazers are only a year removed from appearing in the Western Conference Finals. After struggling for much of the season, they’ve recently played more like the 2018/19 squad than the team that went 29-37 before the hiatus.

The Spurs and Suns have also looked rejuvenated since the season resumed. They own a combined 5-1 record so far, with the only blemish coming on Monday, when San Antonio lost a 132-130 heart-breaker to Philadelphia. The Spurs were four games out of the playoffs when the restart began, and the Suns were six games back, but they’re now within just two games and three games, respectively.

The Pelicans got off to a slow start last week, but their schedule is so forgiving that they’re still in a pretty good position to push for the No. 8 or 9 seed. After beating the Grizzlies on Monday, the Pelicans will play their final five seeding games against teams with losing records — Washington, San Antonio, Orlando, and Sacramento (twice). With Zion Williamson rounding into form, New Orleans has the most favorable schedule of any Western playoff contender.

Of course, those two games against the Kings loom large. Sacramento has been one of the summer’s most disappointing teams so far, having lost winnable games to San Antonio, Orlando, and Dallas. But the Kings are still just 3.5 games back of the Grizzlies and aren’t dead yet — those two games against the Pelicans will be massive, and Friday’s matchup against Brooklyn is certainly favorable.

No matter what happens over the next week-and-a-half, it looks like a near certainty at this point that we’ll get a play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed. The No. 8 team can only avoid a play-in tournament by finishing more than four games ahead of the No. 9 team, and right now even the 13th-seeded Kings are withing four games of Memphis.

Positioning will be crucial though. Only two teams can participate in that play-in tournament, so finishing 10th means little. Conversely, finishing in eighth place is massive, since it means only having to win once in the play-in tournament, rather than twice. At this point, there’s no guarantee the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 spot entering a play-in tournament — there’s even a chance they could slip to 10th or lower.

We want to know where you stand on the Western Conference playoff race. Has your opinion changed at all through the first six days of summer games? Which two teams do you think we’ll see in a play-in tournament? Which club do you expect to ultimately claim the No. 8 seed and face the Lakers in the first round of the postseason?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Poll: Lakers Vs. Clippers

July 31st, 2020 at 11:53am CST by Luke Adams

Following Thursday’s game at the NBA campus in Orlando, the Lakers and Clippers have now faced each other four times this season, with each team winning a pair of those games.

Los Angeles’ teams are widely viewed as the top two contenders to make it out of the Western Conference and compete in the NBA Finals this fall. While a challenger like the Nuggets, Jazz, or Rockets could break up the all-L.A. party, the Lakers and Clippers are on track to play on opposite sides of the West bracket in the postseason, putting them on a collision course to meet in the Western Finals.

Assuming the two L.A. teams do meet again in the playoffs and we haven’t seen the last of the LeBron James/Anthony Davis vs. Kawhi Leonard/Paul George showdowns of the 2019/20 season, we want to know what you expect to happen in a best-of-seven series between the Lakers and Clippers.

The Lakers had the last word on Thursday night, as a last-minute LeBron put-back proved to be the game-winner in a 103-101 victory. But the Clippers were missing key players like Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. The Clips were +16 in minutes that Leonard played, and having second-unit standouts like Williams and Harrell available could have made those non-Kawhi minutes more manageable.

On the other hand, it’s not like we saw the Lakers at their best either. James and Davis combined to go 14-of-38 from the field, showing some rust after not playing real games in over four-and-a-half months. The club is also still experimenting with its summer rotation and will likely continue to do so until everyone – including the players who arrived in Orlando late – is up to full speed.

Another point worth considering: The Lakers have all but clinched the No. 1 seed, but their lack of home court advantage over the Clippers at Walt Disney World may be even more meaningful in an all-L.A. series than it would be in other series — if every game were played at Staples Center, the Lakers might end up with a de facto home court advantage for the entire series, as their fans often show up en masse at Clippers “home” games. That won’t happen on a neutral court in Orlando.

What do you think? After watching the Lakers and Clippers face each other four times this season, which team would you pick to win a seven-game postseason series? Do you fully expect the two L.A. teams to meet again in the playoffs, or will one of them falter before the Western Finals?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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NBA Summer Restart Primer

July 30th, 2020 at 9:47am CST by Luke Adams

During the 2019 NBA offseason, the league went 131 days between games, from Game 6 of the 2018/19 NBA Finals on June 13 to opening night of the ’19/20 regular season on October 22.

Since the coronavirus pandemic shut down the ’19/20 season on March 11, the league has gone 141 days between games, meaning we’ve waited more than the length of an offseason for the NBA season to resume.

That resumption date is finally here though. The league’s summer restart – its “re-opening night” – will tip off on Thursday, with a Jazz/Pelicans matchup followed by a Lakers/Clippers showdown.

In preparation for the NBA’s return, here’s what you need to know:

The Plan

We provided a full breakdown of the NBA’s return-to-play plan back in June, but here’s the abridged version: Rather than having teams travel from city to city to play games in empty home arenas amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the league has gathered its top 22 teams in one place, at Walt Disney World in Florida.

There, those 22 teams will play eight “seeding games” apiece at The Arena, HP Field House, and Visa Athletic Center, three facilities that are part of the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex at Disney. Those seeding games essentially function as regular season games and – when combined with each team’s pre-hiatus record – will determine the final standings.

From there, the top seven teams in each conference will make the postseason. The eighth seed in each conference will be determined by a play-in tournament if the No. 9 team is within four games of the No. 8 team. In that scenario, the two teams would essentially play a best-of-three series, with the No. 8 staked to a 1-0 head start. If the No. 9 club isn’t within four games of the No. 8 club, the No. 8 team automatically claims the final playoff spot.

The postseason will begin on August 17 and will move forward as usual, with best-of-seven series in each round. The NBA Finals will potentially end as late as October 13, with the draft and free agency to follow shortly thereafter.

The Schedule

When the NBA suspended its season in March, teams had about 15-18 games left on their respective schedules. They’ll only play eight more this summer, meaning about half of their remaining matchups have been excised from the schedule.

The fact that the league’s bottom eight teams weren’t invited to the restart made it easy to remove a number of games from the schedule, and the NBA did its best to put together the remaining slate based on games each club originally had on tap for March and April.

As a result, some teams have a tougher road this summer than others. The Grizzlies, who are attempting to hold onto the No. 8 spot in the West, will open their schedule with games against three teams chasing them – the Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Pelicans – before facing the Jazz and Thunder and then closing out their summer slate against the East’s top three seeds, the Raptors, Celtics, and Bucks.

The Pelicans, meanwhile, have a softer schedule as they look to catch up to Memphis. After opening with a pair of tough matchups against Utah and the Clippers, their final six games are against sub-.500 teams.

Seeding games will take place over the next 16 days, concluding on August 14. That will leave room for potential play-in games on August 15 and 16 before the postseason begins in earnest on August 17.

From there, you can budget about two weeks for each round. The tentative start dates for the second and third rounds are August 31 and September 15, respectively, with the NBA Finals on track to begin on September 30.

The full schedule for the seeding games can be found right here.

The Standings

Here’s what the standings in each of the two conferences look like heading into the seeding games:

Eastern Conference:

  1. Milwaukee Bucks (53-12)
  2. Toronto Raptors (46-18)
  3. Boston Celtics (43-21)
  4. Miami Heat (41-24)
  5. Indiana Pacers (39-26)
  6. Philadelphia 76ers (39-26)
  7. Brooklyn Nets (30-34)
  8. Orlando Magic (30-35)
  9. Washington Wizards (24-40)

Western Conference:

  1. Los Angeles Lakers (49-14)
  2. Los Angeles Clippers (44-20)
  3. Denver Nuggets (43-22)
  4. Utah Jazz (41-23)
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (40-24)
  6. Houston Rockets (40-24)
  7. Dallas Mavericks (40-27)
  8. Memphis Grizzlies (32-33)
  9. Portland Trail Blazers (29-37)
  10. New Orleans Pelicans (28-36)
  11. Sacramento Kings (28-36)
  12. San Antonio Spurs (27-36)
  13. Phoenix Suns (26-39)

With home court advantage no longer a real consideration, certain seeding races will lose a bit of their luster, but positioning is still important. For example, while the Celtics won’t be motivated to catch the Raptors for the No. 2 spot in the East in order to gain home court advantage in a potential second round matchup, moving up in the standings would allow them to avoid a tough first-round series against a team like Indiana or Philadelphia.

The middle of the pack in each conference will be worth watching for seeding purposes, and it will also be interesting to see if any of the Western Conference challengers can pull away from the pack to challenge the Grizzlies for the No. 8 seed. Don’t forget — even if the Pelicans or Kings were to finish within four games of Memphis, it wouldn’t do them any good if they don’t also pass the Trail Blazers. Only the No. 9 seed gets to participate in a play-in tournament.

The Rosters

Not every team will pick up right where it left off in March in terms of its roster makeup. For some teams, that’s a good thing.

The Raptors, for instance, should have a fully healthy roster for the first time since the fall. The Trail Blazers will have Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins playing together in their frontcourt for the first time all season. The Magic should have standout defender Jonathan Isaac back in their lineup for the first time since January 1.

For other teams though, the hiatus took a toll. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving remain sidelined with injuries for the Nets, who will also be missing Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan, Taurean Prince, Wilson Chandler, and Nicolas Claxton due to a combination of injuries, opt-outs, and positive COVID-19 tests.

The Wizards, likewise, will be shorthanded this summer — star guards Bradley Beal and John Wall are recovering from injuries, while sharpshooter Davis Bertans opted out due to health concerns prior to his upcoming free agency.

The full list of rosters can be found right here. We’re also tracking players who have opted out or been ruled out due to the coronavirus, and the substitute players who have been signed to replace them.

During the seeding games, teams can continue to sign substitute players to replace anyone who voluntarily opts out or contracts the coronavirus. After the seeding games end in mid-August, players who test positive for COVID-19 can be replaced, but substitute players must have no more than three years of NBA experience.

The Storylines

We’re leaving this section to you. Which storylines will you be keeping a close eye on in the coming weeks?

Do you expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to win his first title, Kawhi Leonard to win his third, or LeBron James to win his fourth? Do you view a team like the Rockets or Sixers as a dark-horse championship contender if they can put it all together? Do you believe Zion Williamson or Damian Lillard can lead their respective teams to a playoff berth? Or will you simply be most interested in finding out if the NBA’s “bubble” experiment actually holds up for the next two-plus months?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the most intriguing storylines of the NBA’s restart!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Waivers

July 28th, 2020 at 7:02pm CST by Luke Adams

When a team releases a player, he doesn’t immediately become a free agent. Instead, the player is placed on waivers, which serves as a sort of temporary holding ground as the other 29 NBA teams decide if they want to try to add him to their roster.

A player remains on waivers for at least 48 hours after he is formally cut by his team. During that time, a team can place a waiver claim in an attempt to acquire the player. If two or more clubs place a claim, the team with the worst record takes priority (before December 1, records from the previous season determine waiver order).

If a team claims a player off waivers, it assumes his current contract and is on the hook for the remainder of his salary. The claiming team also pays a $1,000 fee to the NBA office. If no claims are placed on the player, he clears waivers at 4:00 pm CT two days after his release (or three days later, if he was cut after 4:00 pm CT) and becomes an unrestricted free agent.

While the waiver format is simple enough, not every team will have the salary cap flexibility to make a claim for any waived player it wants. There are only a handful of instances in which a club is able to claim a player off waivers:

  • The team is far enough under the salary cap to fit the player’s entire salary.
  • The team has a traded player exception worth at least the player’s salary.
  • The team has a disabled player exception worth at least the player’s salary, and he’s in the last year of his contract.
  • The player’s contract is for one or two seasons and he’s paid the minimum salary.
  • The player is on a two-way contract.

Since most NBA teams go over the cap and sizable TPEs and DPEs are somewhat rare, the majority of players who are claimed off waivers are either on minimum salary contracts or two-way deals. Claiming those players simply requires an open roster slot.

More often than not though, waived players go unclaimed. In that case, the player’s original team remains on the hook for the rest of his salary. Unless the player is in the final year of his contract and is waived after August 31, his club has the option of “stretching” his remaining cap hit(s) over multiple years using the stretch provision, which we explain in a separate glossary entry. A team that waives a player and uses the stretch provision on him cannot re-acquire that player until after his contract would have originally expired.

In the case of any player without a fully guaranteed contract, the non-guaranteed portion of a player’s salary is removed from a club’s cap immediately once the player is waived.

When a player is “bought out” by his club, he’s placed on waivers as part of the agreement. He and his team agree to adjust the guaranteed portion of his contract, reducing the amount owed to the player by the team, assuming he clears waivers.

Here are several more notes related to waiver rules:

  • Players can be waived and claimed off waivers during the July moratorium (or, in 2020, during the October moratorium).
  • A player waived after March 1 is ineligible for the postseason if he signs with a new team.
  • A player on an expiring contract can’t be waived between the end of the regular season and the start of the next league year.
  • A player claimed off waivers can’t be traded for 30 days. If he’s claimed during the offseason, he can’t be traded until the 30th day of the regular season.
  • If a player is traded and then is waived by his new team, he cannot re-sign with his old club until one year after the trade or until the July 1 after his original contract would have expired, whichever is earlier.
  • A player who has Early Bird or full Bird rights retains Early Bird rights if he’s claimed off waivers.
  • If a team makes a successful waiver claim, it doesn’t lose its spot in the waiver order — the 30th-ranked team at the end of a season remains atop the waiver priority list until December 1 of that year, even if that team makes multiple offseason claims.
  • A team with a full roster can submit a waiver claim and wouldn’t have to clear a spot on its roster for a claimed player until it is determined that the claim is successful.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012 and 2018.

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Revisiting 2019/20 NBA Over/Under Predictions

July 23rd, 2020 at 3:48pm CST by Luke Adams

Before the 2019/20 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Bucks (57.5 wins) to the Hornets (23.5), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

Unfortunately, one effect of the stoppage caused by the coronavirus pandemic was to ensure that no NBA team will actually play a full 82-game schedule this season, which means many of those over/under predictions won’t be resolved.

If you had bet on a team’s win total at a Vegas casino or a major sportsbook, the abridged season may have resulted in your bet being voided. But since our predictions were just for fun, we might as well take a look back at them to see which ones were on track to be right or wrong — and which ones were still very much up in the air when the season was suspended in March.

Let’s dive in…

Eastern Conference

Picks that were on pace to be right:

Our voters seemingly had a much better handle on the Central than on the other two Eastern divisions, accurately picking four of five Central over/unders while only nailing one team in the Atlantic and one in the Southeast.

Of these six teams, the Bucks and Heat were virtual locks to surpass their projected win totals and hit the over. The Pacers would have had to go 7-10 down the stretch to miss their over, while the Bulls would’ve had to go 12-5 to avoid the under — neither was particularly likely.

The Knicks and Cavaliers were the only two that were really up in the air here. They only would’ve had to go 7-9 and 6-11, respectively, to exceed their projections. That wouldn’t have been out of the question.

Picks that were on pace to be wrong:

The Atlantic didn’t play out like our voters expected this season, with the Raptors and Celtics outperforming regular-season expectations, while the Sixers and Nets were on track to fall short of theirs.

The bottom of the conference was a bit of a mess as well. The Wizards and Hornets were expected to be among the East’s worst teams, but weren’t quite as bad as anticipated. The Pistons and Hawks, meanwhile, fell short of their goals for the season in part because they were without key frontcourt players (Blake Griffin and John Collins) for big chunks of the year.

In the middle, the Magic still had a chance to get to 42 wins if they’d been able to recapture their end-of-season form from 2018/19, when they followed a 20-31 start with a 22-9 finish.

Western Conference

Picks that were on pace to be right:

Some of these were pretty close calls. The Clippers were on pace to win 56 games; the Nuggets were on track to get to 54 victories; the Jazz were on pace to get to 53 wins; the Rockets were on track to win 51 games; and the Pelicans‘ soft end-of-season schedule would given them a realistic chance to get to 40+ wins.

Other predictions were more comfortable victories though. The Lakers and Mavericks were projected to blow past their preseason over/under numbers, and the Timberwolves would’ve had to finish the season on a 17-1 run to avoid falling short of their projected win total.

Importantly, eight teams are listed in this section, which means our voters had a winning record on their Western Conference picks!

Picks that were on pace to be wrong:

We were way off on the Thunder, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Warriors, who had already clinched their respective overs or unders even before the season went on hiatus. The Kings and Suns, at least, probably would have finished in the relative vicinity of their preseason projections.

For a second straight season, our readers finished with a 14-16 record in their over/under picks, though this year definitely comes with an asterisk — maybe we can talk ourselves into believing we would’ve gotten to at least .500 if the season had played out in full.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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