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Potential 2020 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

June 15th, 2020 at 1:44pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.

A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2018/19 and 32 in 2019/20, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

In 2017, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – centers Alex Len and Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,642,800.

As the Nos. 9, 10, and 14 picks in the 2016 draft, Poeltl, Maker, and Valentine won’t be hit particularly hard by falling short of the starter criteria. Their projected qualifying offers would have ranged from approximately $5.09MM to $4.7MM, respectively, so a dip to $4.64MM shouldn’t have a major impact on their respective free agencies. Of the three players, only Poeltl looks like a lock to even receive a QO.

The top-14 pick whose situation remains unclear:

Because of the unusual circumstances surrounding this season, the usual definition of the starter criteria becomes a little more complicated. For instance, if a player started 40 games, but his team’s season ended after 65 games, should he be credited with having met the starter criteria based on the fact that he was “on pace” to do so over a full 82-game season?

There’s only one player who technically didn’t meet the starter criteria but was on pace to do so: Bulls guard Kris Dunn. After starting 44 games in 2018/19, Dunn started 32 of Chicago’s games this year, for a total of 76 over the last two seasons. If his starts this season were prorated over a full 82 games, he would have met the starter criteria.

The NBA and NBPA have agreed to prorate the criteria for performance bonuses and incentives in player contracts — it would make sense for the same rules to apply to Dunn. However, as we discussed last week, the fourth-year guard had a knee injury that was expected to sideline him for the rest of the season before COVID-19 threw the schedule into disarray. The Bulls, who had control over Dunn’s ability to make the last six starts he needed, may push back against the idea that proration should allow him to surpass the starter-criteria threshold.

ESPN’s Bobby Marks tells Hoops Rumors that Dunn will likely be deemed to have met the starter criteria, in which case his qualifying offer will be worth $7,091,457. If that changes, the value of his QO would dip to $4,642,800.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this season.

Because Saric was a 12th overall pick and met the starter criteria with 50 starts this season, he’s eligible for a qualifying offer worth $5,087,871 instead of $4,791,213. No other players fit the bill this year — many of the best players drafted between Nos. 10 and 30 in 2016 have already been extended, while the others didn’t have major roles or are no longer on their rookie contracts.

Entering the season, Malik Beasley – who logged nearly 1,900 minutes in 2018/19 – looked like the strongest candidate to join Saric in this group. However, Beasley had an inconsistent role in the Nuggets’ rotation before being traded to the Timberwolves, and ended up making just 14 starts (all with Minnesota), with 1,209 total minutes played.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

No second-round picks or undrafted free agents eligible for restricted free agency met the starter criteria this season, which would have put them in line for a qualifying offer worth $3,126,948.

Actually, Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings) technically qualified for this group, but because his initial NBA contract was more lucrative than most, his qualifying offer will be worth $10,661,733 based on other criteria, rendering the starter criteria irrelevant for him.

De’Anthony Melton, Kenrich Williams, Torrey Craig, and Jevon Carter were some of the other top candidates to meet the starter criteria among second-rounders and UDFAs, but none ultimately recorded more than 1,011 minutes (Melton) or 18 starts (Williams).

As a result, those players – and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents – won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary information from Basketball Insiders used in the creation of this post.

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One Key Question Surrounding Kris Dunn’s Free Agency

June 10th, 2020 at 2:39pm CST by Luke Adams

Bulls guard Kris Dunn won’t be one of this offseason’s marquee free agents, and a possible depressed market as a result of the coronavirus pandemic may limit his earning potential. However, the former first-round pick should be an intriguing option for teams looking to improve their backcourt defense.

Dunn was Chicago’s best perimeter defender in 2019/20 making a legit case for an All-Defense nod as he led all qualified players with 2.9 steals per 36 minutes. He also wasn’t a major offensive liability, reducing his turnovers to 1.3 per game and posting a career-best .444 FG% as his usage rate declined.

However, there’s one key question looming over Dunn’s free agency that may dictate how his market plays out and what sort of deal he ends up signing. As a 2016 first-round pick, he’s eligible for restricted free agency this offseason, but the Bulls will have to tender him a qualifying offer in order to make him restricted, and the amount of that QO remains up in the air.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Qualifying Offers]

The amount of Dunn’s qualifying offer – which is essentially a one-year contract offer that gives the Bulls the right of first refusal – hinges on whether or not he has met the starter criteria. If he has met the starter criteria, his QO will be worth $7,091,457. If he falls short, the value of the QO dips to $4,642,800.

We provide more details on the starter criteria in our glossary entry on the subject, but in Dunn’s case, it’s important to know that he would have met the starter criteria if he had started a total of 82 games over the last two seasons (an average of 41 per season). After starting 44 games in 2018/19, Dunn started just 32 games this year, for a total of 76.

However, the Bulls will only end up playing a total of 65 regular season games in 2019/20 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the suspension of the season. Dunn’s camp could argue that his 32 starts should be prorated over a full 82-game schedule — in that case, he’d be credited for a total of 40 starts, increasing his two-year total to 84 and meeting the starter criteria.

The Bulls, on the other hand, could rightly argue that a knee injury which sidelined Dunn before the season was suspended was expected to keep him out of action for the rest of the club’s season if it had ended on April 15, as initially expected. In other words, there would have been no way for him to get those last few starts he was “projected” for.

It’s a tricky situation, and I’m not sure how the NBA will handle it. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks wrote recently, requirements for certain incentives and bonuses are expected to be prorated to account for the shortened season to make things fair to players who fell just short of those incentives and would’ve met them given a full 82 games. But the starter criteria is a separate issue, and there are reasonable arguments on both sides — especially since the Bulls may not have started Dunn again even if he’d been able to return from his injury.

For a restricted free agent like Brandon Ingram, who most certainly won’t accept his qualifying offer, this would be a non-issue. But for the Bulls and Dunn, the difference between a $4.6MM qualifying offer and one worth $7.1MM is significant, especially since there’s not expected to be a ton of league-wide money available for free agents this offseason.

Would the Bulls still tender Dunn a qualifying offer if the price is $7.1MM? If not, the 26-year-old would become an unrestricted free agent. Would Dunn accept a $7.1MM qualifying offer if it’s on the table? I don’t think that’s out of the question, considering it’s not far off from a mid-level salary. Conversely, I think the Bulls would be far more inclined to offer a $4.6MM QO, while Dunn would be less likely to accept it.

It’s not unreasonable to believe that a $2.5MM difference in potential qualifying offers could reshape what Dunn’s free agency looks like, so it’ll be fascinating to see how the NBA and NBPA determine that price point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

June 9th, 2020 at 4:16pm CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

  • All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
  • Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
  • Notifications. For any team or player, you can set up push notifications to ensure you always get breaking news instantly. Notifications can also be set up at the sport level.
  • Commenting. You can read and contribute comments on the app seamlessly.
  • Customer service. If you find a bug, we’ll fix it. If you have a feature request, we’ll consider it. The app is continually evolving and improving.
  • Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!
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Poll: Will Grizzlies Hang Onto No. 8 Seed In West?

June 9th, 2020 at 1:35pm CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA season was suspended in March, the Grizzlies held a 3.5-game lead over the top challengers for the No. 8 seed, but were entering one of the toughest stretches of their 2019/20 schedule. At 32-33, Memphis had 17 games left. Of those 17 games, 11 were against playoff teams and five were against immediate threats to the Grizzlies’ playoff spot (Portland, New Orleans, and San Antonio).

Now that the league has settled on playing just eight more games this summer, the Grizzlies’ path to a postseason spot is simpler in some ways, but more complicated in others. Any team hoping to pass the Grizzlies for the No. 8 seed will have to make up four games in an eight-game stretch, which will be a tall order.

Even if the Grizzlies play sub-.500 ball and go 3-5 when play resumes, the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, or Spurs will have to go 7-1 to surpass or match them. The Suns, who are six games back, wouldn’t even be able to catch Memphis if the Grizz win more than two games.

However, the NBA’s new rules for Orlando also ensure that the Grizzlies will be subject to a play-in tournament if at least one team finishes within four games of them. In other words, unless Memphis increases or maintains its lead over all five teams behind them in the Western Conference standings during those eight seeding games, a play-in tournament is happening.

The Grizzlies would still have a leg up in that play-in tournament, which would pit them against the No. 9 team. Memphis would only have to win one game, while the challenger would have to win twice. But the club wouldn’t have much room for error — losing the first game in the play-in tournament would result in a winner-take-all second game.

Assuming the summer schedule is made up primarily of the next games on the team’s initial schedule, as expected, the Grizzlies will still have a challenging path, but it won’t be too grueling. Memphis wouldn’t be a major underdog against Portland, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, or New Orleans (twice). And while the Grizzlies would likely have to face the Bucks and possibly the Celtics, none of the West’s top three teams would be on their upcoming slate.

What do you think? When play resumes this summer, will the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 seed, clinching it outright or in a play-in tournament? Or will another team make a run and claim the conference’s final postseason berth?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Poll: Will Wizards Make Playoffs?

June 8th, 2020 at 12:20pm CST by Luke Adams

While five current lottery teams in the Western Conference will be given the opportunity to snatch the No. 8 seed from the Grizzlies when play resumes in Orlando this summer, only one current non-playoff team in the East has been invited to Disney. That team is the Wizards, the No. 9 seed in the conference when the season was suspended in March.

The Wizards weren’t exactly knocking on the door of a playoff spot before play was halted. At 24-40, Washington was 5.5 games behind the Magic for the eighth seed in the East and a full six games back of the seventh-seeded Nets. However, the NBA’s new 22-team format for the summer will give the Wizards at least an outside shot at a spot in the postseason.

Here’s what Washington will have to do to make the playoffs this summer:

  1. Pull to within four games of either Orlando or Brooklyn. This will mean outplaying one of those clubs by at least two games during the eight “seeding games.” In other words, if the Nets and Magic each go 3-5, the Wizards would need to go 5-3 to force a play-in tournament.
  2. If they force a play-in tournament, the Wizards would need to defeat the Nets or Magic twice without losing a game to earn the No. 8 seed in the East.

There are other scenarios in which the Wizards could make the postseason, but they’re next to impossible. For instance, if Washington goes 8-0 when play resumes and the Nets and Magic can’t muster more than a win or two, the Wizards could claim the No. 7 seed outright, or move up to No. 8 and get the double-elimination advantage in a play-in tournament. That’s a pipe dream though, especially given the schedule Washington will face this summer.

We don’t yet know exactly what the schedule for those eight seeding games will look like, but reports have indicated that the general plan is for teams to pick up where they left off in March, with games against bottom-eight clubs skipped.

For the Wizards, that could mean opening with games against the Celtics, Thunder, and Sixers before getting an opportunity to play the Nets. From there, Washington’s next three games may be again Boston (again), the Suns, and the Bucks. There are some winnable games in there, but given how the Wizards played in their first 64 games, expecting more than three or four victories is probably overly optimistic.

Still, anything could happen when play resumes. While the Wizards aren’t expecting John Wall back, it sounds like the Nets won’t have Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving active, and there’s no guarantee the Magic will have Jonathan Isaac or Al-Farouq Aminu available. If they can force a play-in tournament, the Wizards wouldn’t necessarily be massive underdogs to either of those teams.

What do you think? Is there any chance the Wizards make the postseason? If you believe in Washington, do you think they’ll knock out the Magic? Or will the Nets be the team to slip out of the postseason?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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What Lottery, Draft Rules Mean For Traded 2020 First Round Picks

June 5th, 2020 at 10:54am CST by Luke Adams

It got a bit lost in the shuffle amidst all of Thursday’s updates, but the NBA provided some important details on how this year’s draft lottery seeding and odds will work. They are as follows:

  1. The eight teams not included in the Orlando restart will be the top eight teams in the lottery standings.
  2. The 9-14 spots in the lottery will be made up of the six teams that don’t make the playoffs following this summer’s “seeding games” and possible play-in tournaments. Their seedings and odds will be based on their records as of March 11.
  3. The rest of the first round will be sorted by record, as usual. The order will be based on teams’ regular season results and the results of the eight seeding games this summer.

With those rules in mind, we have a pretty good sense of how traded first round picks for 2020 will be affected, so let’s take a closer look…

Picks whose fates have essentially been decided:

Cavaliers‘ first-round pick (traded to Pelicans if not in top 10)

  • As the league’s second-worst team in 2019/20, the Cavaliers can’t fall below sixth in the lottery, so they’ll keep their pick, which will land anywhere from No. 1 to 6.

Sixers‘ first-round pick (traded to Nets if not in top 14)

  • The Sixers have a nine-game lead on Orlando, which means they’ve now clinched a playoff spot and will send their pick to Brooklyn. It’s currently projected to land at No. 19 or 20, but it could move up or down based on this summer’s seeding games.

Pacers‘ first-round pick (traded to Bucks if not in top 14)

  • Like the Sixers, the Pacers have now clinched a playoff spot, which assures they’ll send their pick to Milwaukee. This pick is also currently projected to land at No. 19 or 20 (Philadelphia and Indiana are tied at 39-26), but it could move higher or lower once play resumes.

Rockets‘ first-round pick (traded to Nuggets)

  • This pick is unprotected, so the Rockets will send it to Denver. At 40-24, the Rockets are tied with Oklahoma City, putting their pick in line to be No. 21 or 22. They’re bunched up with a few teams in the standings though, so that could change when play resumes.

Jazz‘s first-round pick (traded to Grizzlies if it falls between 8-14)

  • The Jazz have now clinched a spot in the postseason, so they’ll keep their pick for at least one more year. It’s currently projected to be No. 24 overall, but that may change.

Nuggets‘ first-round pick (traded to Thunder)

  • An unprotected pick, the Nuggets’ first-rounder is currently projected to be No. 25. They’ll send it to Oklahoma City.

Clippers‘ first-round pick (traded to Knicks)

  • This is another unprotected selection, which the Clippers will send to New York. For now, it projects to be No. 27.

Bucks‘ first-round pick (traded to Celtics)

  • The Bucks, who will send this pick to Boston, have a four-game lead for the NBA’s best record, so this selection will likely be No. 30, though it could theoretically move up a spot or two.

Picks whose fates remain up in the air:

Nets‘ first-round pick (traded to Timberwolves if not in top 14)

  • At 30-34, the Nets have a half-game lead over Orlando and a six-game cushion over Washington. If they slump when play resumes, there’s a scenario in which they lose their playoff spot. The Magic would have to pass them and the Wizards would have to pull to within four games before beating Brooklyn twice in a row in a play-in tournament.
  • If the Nets miss the playoffs, this pick would end up at either No. 13 or 14 in the lottery standings, and Brooklyn would keep it.
  • If the Nets hang on a clinch a playoff spot, it figures to be the No. 15, 16, or 17 pick, and they’ll send it to the Timberwolves.

Grizzlies‘ first-round pick (traded to Celtics if it’s not in top six)

  • The Grizzlies have a 3.5-game lead over three Western teams (Portland, New Orleans, and Sacramento), with a four-game cushion over San Antonio and a six-game cushion over Phoenix.
  • They’re in position to secure a playoff spot, and if they do, they’ll send this pick to the Celtics. It would fall between Nos. 15-17.
  • If the Grizzlies lose their playoff spot, they’ll move to No. 14 in the lottery standings. In all likelihood, the pick would end up there and they’d still have to send it to Boston. However, they’d have a minuscule chance (2.4%) of moving into the top four via the lottery, in which case they’d keep the pick.

Thunder‘s first-round pick (traded to Sixers if not in top 20)

  • Based on the Thunder’s current 40-24 record, this pick currently projects to be No. 21 or 22, in which case OKC would have to send it to Philadelphia.
  • However, if the Thunder lose ground during this summer’s seeding games, they could be surpassed in the standings by as many as three teams, meaning the pick could end up in the No. 18-20 range. In that case, Oklahoma City would keep it.
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What We Learned On Thursday About NBA’s Plans

June 4th, 2020 at 10:58pm CST by Luke Adams

Thursday represented perhaps the most eventful day of NBA news since the league suspended its season back on March 11. The NBA’s Board of Governors formally approved the return-to-play plan put forth by commissioner Adam Silver, as the league took a major first step toward getting back on the court this season.

While that 29-1 vote in favor of Silver’s 22-team plan was the big headline of the day, it was just one of many significant updates we got from the NBA and the reporters that cover the league. Since there was a lot of information to take in, we wanted to round up all the key headlines in one place — we’ve done so below.

Here are some of Thursday’s biggest stories:

The ball is now in the NBPA’s court:

The NBA and its teams have given the green light to the league’s return-to-play plan, but the National Basketball Players Association hasn’t technically done so yet.

The players’ union reportedly scheduled a call on Friday with team player representatives, and there’s an expectation that they’ll sign off on the plan. After all, Silver and NBPA president Chris Paul have stayed in close contact throughout the process and are believed to be on the same page.

However, giving a tentative go-ahead to the broad strokes of the NBA’s proposal doesn’t mean that the NBPA will be on board with every single detail. Many changes, especially those applying to the offseason and the 2020/21 season, will need to be collectively bargained before they can be officially finalized.

More light was shed on the NBA’s new summer schedule:

In addition to getting confirmation from the NBA that the league is aiming to begin regular season games on July 31, we were able to fill in some of the gaps between now and then, based on reports from Shams Charania of The Athletic and others.

Not all of these dates are set in stone, but here’s a rough timeline on what the next several weeks may look like:

  • June 15: Players located internationally return to their team’s market.
  • June 21: All players report to their team’s market.
  • June 22: Coronavirus testing begins.
  • June 30: Training camps begin.
  • July 7: Players travel to Orlando.
  • July 8-30: Quarantine period, camps, and possibly exhibition games?

Once the season resumes on July 31, it’s expected to take 16 days for each team to play eight games, so by mid-August, we could be looking at one or two potential play-in tournaments, with the postseason to follow.

The NBA has officially rescheduled its draft:

Originally scheduled for June 25, the 2020 NBA draft is now tentatively penciled in for October 15. That means it could take place just three days after the NBA Finals conclude.

We’re still waiting to see if the league will be able to conduct some form of revamped combine for many of this year’s top prospects. For now, we know that NCAA early entrants will have to withdraw from the draft by August 3 or 10 days after the combine (whichever comes first) in order to maintain their college eligibility.

Any draft combine the NBA puts together seems unlikely to be completed by July 24, so for now we’re assuming that August 3 will be the withdrawal deadline for early entrants.

We’ve got a new draft lottery date and details:

The 2020 draft lottery, which was initially supposed to happen in Chicago on May 19, is now tentatively scheduled for August 25.

While it’s not clear exactly what form the lottery will take, the NBA provided more details today on what the seeding and odds will look like. According to the league, the eight teams not invited to Orlando are locked into the top eight spots in the lottery. The 9-14 seeds will be filled out by the rest of the teams that don’t ultimately make the playoffs, sorted by their records as of March 11.

In other words, even if the Wizards go 0-8 and finish with a worse winning percentage than a couple teams left out of the return to play, they’ll have the ninth-best lottery odds. The same is true if they go on a hot streak and pass a couple top-22 teams in the standings in Orlando — unless they make the postseason, they’ll still be No. 9 in the lottery standings.

Here’s what the lottery odds will look like for the eight teams not invited to Orlando:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
GSW 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – –
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – –
MIN 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1 – – – – –
ATL 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2 – – – –
DET 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6 – – –
NYK 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2 – –
CHI 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 –
CHA 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0

The tentative odds for the rest of the teams can be found here, though they’re dependent on the Grizzlies, Magic, and Nets not surrendering their playoff spots.

As for the rest of the first round draft order, that won’t be based on March 11 records — teams’ performances in the eight “seeding games” in July and August will also be taken into consideration. For instance, the Heat (41-24) are currently projected to have the No. 23 pick, but if they go 1-7 when play resumes, they’ll almost certainly move up in the draft order.

The NBA is planning on a very short offseason:

In one of the more surprising announcements of the day, the league indicated it’s targeting November 10 for the opening of next season’s training camps and December 1 for opening night of the 2020/21 campaign.

While teams not involved in the NBA’s return will welcome the opportunity to get back on the floor at that point, those dates may not be popular among playoff teams, who would have an extremely compressed offseason. The 2019/20 season could run as late as October 12 (with free agency to follow just six days later on October 18), which would result in an offseason of less than a month for a couple teams.

Comments made by NBPA executive director Michele Roberts suggest she was surprised by the December 1 target date, and it’s worth noting that it will require approval from the players’ union. Of all the dates and details the NBA has announced so far, this is one I could see changing — a December 25 opening day just seems to make a lot of sense.

On the other hand, a December 1 start could give the NBA a chance to finish the 2020/21 season before the Olympics get underway on July 23, 2021 — avoiding any overlap with the Tokyo games could be important for some players.

There still aren’t a ton of details on the NBA’s health and safety protocols for the summer:

Even as we received a ton of new information today on dates and formats, there were few updates about the most important issue facing the NBA this summer — how does the league plan to keep its players safe and healthy amid the coronavirus pandemic?

A report confirmed that individuals are expected to be tested for COVID-19 daily within the Orlando bubble, and commissioner Adam Silver confirmed that the league doesn’t want a single positive test to prevent that player’s team from continuing to participate. But we already strongly suspected both of things.

Silver’s most noteworthy comment during his Thursday TNT appearance was his suggestion that certain older coaches may not be permitted on the sidelines due to their increased risk if they were to contract COVID-19. However, he has already walked back that stance to some extent. Either way, we’ll need more details on the NBA’s health and safety protocols soon.

For more details on the NBA’s return-to-play plan, check out our full breakdown here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Details On NBA’s Return-To-Play Plan

June 3rd, 2020 at 12:36pm CST by Luke Adams

After suspending the 2019/20 season on March 11 due to the coronavirus pandemic, the NBA has now finalized a plan for resuming play.

We’ll use the space below to round up all the details on that plan, answering the most commonly-asked questions and updating the story with more information as it becomes available.

This post can be found anytime on the right-hand of our desktop site under “Hoops Rumors Features” or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu.

Has the NBA officially approved a return-to-play plan?

The NBA’s Board of Governors approved the plan on June 4, nearly unanimously. The National Basketball Players Association also signed off on June 5.

There were a few more details to sort out after that, and a number of players have expressed reservations about the plan, but it’s moving forward. The NBA and NBPA announced a finalized agreement on June 26.

When will the NBA resume play?

The season will resume on July 30. Teams are scheduled to travel to Orlando starting on July 7 and will have training camps, followed by three exhibition games, before July 30. More details on the schedule can be found here and here.

Where will the return-to-play take place?

All games will be played at Walt Disney World in Orlando. The massive property has more than enough space to house teams, and the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex has the necessary facilities for basketball games.

Games will be played without fans in attendance at The Arena, HP Field House, and Visa Athletic Center, per ESPN. Teams will stay at the Gran Destino, Grand Floridian, and Yacht Club resorts.

How many teams will return to complete the 2019/20 season?

Twenty-two teams will participate. Those teams are as follows:

  • The current Eastern Conference playoff teams (8):
    1. Milwaukee Bucks
    2. Toronto Raptors
    3. Boston Celtics
    4. Miami Heat
    5. Indiana Pacers
    6. Philadelphia 76ers
    7. Brooklyn Nets
    8. Orlando Magic
  • The current Western Conference playoff teams (8):
    1. Los Angeles Lakers
    2. Los Angeles Clippers
    3. Denver Nuggets
    4. Utah Jazz
    5. Oklahoma City Thunder
    6. Houston Rockets
    7. Dallas Mavericks
    8. Memphis Grizzlies
  • The teams within six games of a playoff spot (6):
    1. Portland Trail Blazers
    2. New Orleans Pelicans
    3. Sacramento Kings
    4. San Antonio Spurs
    5. Phoenix Suns
    6. Washington Wizards

The Hornets, Bulls, Knicks, Pistons, Hawks, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, and Warriors won’t be part of the NBA’s restart — their seasons are over.

Why is the NBA bringing back 22 teams instead of 30?

Adding eight more clubs to the mix would mean bringing several hundred additional individuals onto the Disney campus, increasing the risk of spreading COVID-19. The NBA didn’t consider it necessary to bring back those eight teams, who were far removed from the playoff picture and would have had no real path to the postseason had the season played out normally.

So why 22 teams instead of 16 then?

The 22-team format accomplishes two things:

  1. It allows teams to play a regular season schedule rather than jumping directly to the postseason.
  2. It will allow the NBA to experiment with a play-in tournament.

The first point is important because players on playoff teams opposed the idea of advancing directly to the postseason without playing meaningful games first. They want to be able to shake off the rest and reestablish their chemistry before jumping into do-or-die games.

Playing regular season games will also allow these 22 teams – who have played between 64 and 67 games so far – to surpass the 70-game mark for the regular season, which is an important threshold for clubs’ agreements with regional TV networks.

Meanwhile, implementing in-season and/or play-in tournaments has long been on Silver’s wish list, and this year’s unusual circumstances presented the league with the opportunity to experiment.

So regular season games will take place when play resumes?

Yes, though they’re technically not being called regular season games. Each team will play eight pre-playoff contests, referred to by the NBA as “seeding games,” for a total of 88 games between July 30 and the start of the playoffs in August.

And will the top eight teams in each conference make the playoffs at that point?

Not necessarily. If the No. 8 seed has more than a four-game lead on the No. 9 seed, then yes, the top eight teams in that conference will automatically make the postseason. On the other hand, if the No. 9 seed is within four games of the No. 8 seed, those two teams will participate in a play-in tournament.

What will that play-in tournament look like?

Essentially, it’ll be a best-of-three series with the No. 8 team getting a 1-0 lead to start. The No. 9 team will have to win twice to claim the final playoff spot in the conference, while the No. 8 team will only need to win once.

Once the playoff teams are set, will they be reseeded one through 16, regardless of conference?

No, the postseason will assume a traditional format once the No. 8 seeds are set — teams will be divided by Eastern and Western conferences and will play best-of-seven series.

What coronavirus-related protocols will the NBA institute to ensure players’ safety?

Players, coaches, and staffers on the Disney campus are expected to undergo daily COVID-19 testing, or something close to it. Additionally, the NBA has sent out a 113-page letter detailing the health and safety measures being taken. Those protocols are too extensive to list here, but some of them are as follows:

  • The plan is to have a maximum of 1,600 people on the campus at a given time. Traveling parties are limited to 37 people per team.
  • The NBA will technically allow individuals to leave the campus and return, but is stressing that players shouldn’t do so. Any player that does leave and return is expected to have to quarantine for 10 days.
  • Players won’t be permitted to bring guests (likely family members) to the campus until after the first round of the playoffs and are expected to be limited to three guests apiece. More details on the restrictions facing guests can be found here.
  • The NBA is establishing an anonymous hotline that will allow individuals on the Orlando campus to report those who are violating social-distancing and safety guidelines. If a player is found to be violating those guidelines, he could be subject to a warning, fine, suspension, and/or even removal from the campus.

What happens if a player tests positive for COVID-19?

A single positive test won’t shut down the season, as it did in March when Rudy Gobert contracted the coronavirus. The expectation is that a player who tests positive will be required to self-quarantine for at least 10-to-14 days, with his teammates being frequently tested as they continue to play.

What if a player doesn’t want to participate due to safety concerns?

A player who chooses not to report to Orlando won’t face a fine or suspension. However, he also won’t be paid for the games he misses, and will forfeit 1/92.6th of his salary for those games. His team has the option of signing a “substitute player” to replace him. So far, a handful of players have voluntarily opted out, including Lakers guard Avery Bradley, Wizards forward Davis Bertans, and Trail Blazers forward Trevor Ariza.

How late will the season run?

If the NBA Finals go a full seven games, the last game will happen no later than October 13.

When will next season start?

The NBA is tentatively targeting November 10 for the start of next season’s training camps, with December 1 representing the target date for opening night of the regular season. In other words, a team that plays in the Finals may have to report to training camp less than a month later.

That timeline is not yet set in stone. Given how much of its revenues are tied to ticket sales and in-arena purchases, the NBA will prioritize getting fans back into arenas next season, so if the league has to wait a little longer to ensure that happens, it will likely do so.

Additionally, the NBPA – whose members may not love the idea of such a short offseason – will have to approve those proposed dates, and the union reportedly views a December 1 tip-off date for 2020/21 as unlikely.

Will the NBA play a full season in 2020/21? Will that schedule change be permanent?

That’s TBD. Everything we’ve heard suggests the NBA is still prioritizing playing a full 82-game schedule next season, in part to attempt to recoup some of this season’s lost revenues. The idea of starting the regular season in December and having it run into June (with the playoffs ending in August) has been popular in some NBA circles, but the league hasn’t committed to changing its calendar on a permanent basis.

One report has indicated the league would like to hold the 2021 Finals in mid-July, in part to allow players to participate in the Tokyo Olympics, which are scheduled to begin on July 23, 2021.

When will this year’s draft and free agency period occur?

The 2020 draft has been rescheduled for October 16. Free agency is expected to open just two days later, on October 18. It’s shaping up to be an extremely hectic week for the NBA, especially if the Finals go a full seven games and end on October 13.

Player option decision dates, salary guarantee dates, trade exception expiry dates, and various other deadlines will be pushed back as well to coincide with the new calendar. For instance, a trade exception that would previously have expired on July 6 will now expire on October 23.

How will the draft lottery odds be determined?

The draft lottery – rescheduled for August 20 – will be made up of the eight teams not involved in the league’s restart and the six teams that don’t make the postseason. Those teams’ lottery seeds and odds will be based on their records through March 11, according to the NBA.

Those seeds and odds can be found here, but will be subject to change if a current playoff team loses its No. 8 seed to a current lottery team. For instance, if if the Wizards were to beat the Magic in a play-in tournament, the Suns, Spurs, Kings, Pelicans, and Trail Blazers would all move up a spot in the lottery standings, Orlando would get the 14th spot in those lottery standings, and the Wizards would draft 15th overall.

The rest of the draft order will be based on the 16 playoff teams’ combined records across regular season games and “seeding games.” For instance, the Heat (41-24) are currently projected to draft 23rd, but if they go 1-7 when play resumes, they’ll likely move up in the draft.

How will players’ salaries and next season’s salary cap be impacted by the NBA’s plan?

That remains unclear. By playing 88 more regular season games, the NBA will ensure that many of its teams surpass the 70-game threshold and fulfill regional TV contracts, which is good news for the league’s financial situation.

Players – who are currently having 25% of their pay checks withheld – will still be required to forfeit a portion of their 2019/20 salaries as a result of the 171 regular season games that will end up being canceled. But there’s a belief they’ll begin receiving their full pay checks at some point this summer.

As for how the 2020/21 salary cap will be affected, that will require some negotiation between the NBA and NBPA and will hinge in part on how significantly the league expects next season’s revenues to be impacted by the pandemic. There’s a belief that neither the league nor the union will want the cap to drop off substantially this offseason, so artificially smoothing it could be the most logical solution.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Notes On What 22-Team Plan Means For NBA

June 3rd, 2020 at 11:29am CST by Luke Adams

As we outlined this morning, NBA commissioner Adam Silver is expected to recommend a 22-team return-to-play format when he meets with the league’s Board of Governors on Thursday, and there’s an expectation that the plan will be approved.

Our earlier story has a number of details on exactly which teams will be involved and how the plan will work, so be sure to check it out for more info. With those details in mind, we want to take a look at what the plan means for the teams involved and those left out, as well as some of the questions that still remain. Let’s dive in…

Playoff seeding remains in flux:

For the last several weeks, we’ve speculated about potential playoff matchups based on teams’ current records. However, with each club expected to play eight more regular season games, the seeding in both the Eastern and Western Conference will likely change before we reach the postseason.

In the East, for instance, the Pacers and Sixers are currently tied for the No. 5 spot. The Nets are only a half-game ahead of the Magic for the No. 7 seed, which is especially important, since the No. 8 seed could be up for grabs in a play-in tournament, whereas the No. 7 team will be safe.

In the West, things are even more bunched together — the second-place Clippers and seventh-place Mavericks are only separated by 5.5 games, with the Nuggets, Jazz, Thunder, and Rockets all in between. A slump in those final eight regular season games could result in a team like Denver dropping two or three spots in the standings.

There’s no guarantee any play-in tournaments will actually happen:

According to Shams Charania of The Athletic, any play-in tournament would only involve two teams in each conference — the Nos. 8 and 9 seeds. And it would only occur if the No. 9 seed is within four games of the No. 8 seed. In that case, the two teams would play one another, with the No. 9 team requiring two wins to advance, with the No. 8 team only needing to win once. In other words, the two teams would play a best-of-three series with the No. 8 seed holding a 1-0 advantage to start.

What does this mean for the six current lottery teams that will be involved in the NBA’s restart? Let’s start in the East, where the Wizards are the only non-playoff team being invited. Currently, Washington is 5.5 games back of the Magic and six games back of the Nets. That means that in order to force a qualifying tournament, the Wizards will need to gain two games on at least one of those two teams within an eight-game stretch.

While that’s possible, it won’t be easy. In a 22-team field, none of the Wizards’ eight regular season games will be against tanking teams — or against teams with a worse record than their 24-40 mark. They’ll likely be an underdog in every game they play, and forcing a play-in tournament may be a long shot.

In the West, it seems more plausible. The Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, and Spurs are all currently within four games of the Grizzlies. Barring a major hot streak from Memphis, it seems likely that at least one of those teams will keep pace with the Grizzlies and force a play-in tournament, but it will be fascinating to see which one can do it (the Suns, at six game back, are a long shot).

Additionally, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe observes (via Twitter), it will be interesting to see how the NBA would handle what is essentially a tie between teams that have played an uneven number of games. For instance, if the Grizzlies finish a half-game ahead of the Pelicans for the No. 8 seed, will New Orleans still need to win two games before Memphis wins one to claim that final playoff spot? I’d assume the answer is yes, but that’d be a tough break for the No. 9 team.

What’s next for the bottom eight teams?

The Hornets, Bulls, Knicks, Pistons, Hawks, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, and Warriors won’t be part of the NBA’s restart. For each franchise, there are some subplots to watch as a result of their season ending early — for example, we’ve likely seen Atlanta forward Vince Carter play his last game, somewhat unceremoniously.

More broadly, it will be interesting to see what steps the NBA takes with its teams that will now likely remain off the court for nine months or more. We heard earlier this week that some of those clubs have expressed interest in holding mandatory summer training camps or even participating in regional fall leagues to help bridge the gap between seasons. Any plan along those lines would require NBPA approval, however.

There are major financial questions to answer regarding these eight teams as well. Many of the 22 teams that resume play will get a chance to fulfill their regional TV contracts by surpassing the 70-game threshold. Additionally, players on those 22 teams should earn a greater portion of their 2019/20 salaries as a result of playing eight more regular season games and potentially participating in the postseason. How will the NBA make things fair financially to the teams and players that aren’t getting the chance to play any more games?

How will the 2020 draft lottery be impacted?

There has been no confirmation yet, but it seems reasonable to assume that the eight teams whose seasons are coming to an end now will be the top eight teams in the draft lottery. Still, even among those clubs, there’s some uncertainty about how the lottery odds will be calculated.

As Rod Beard of The Detroit News notes (via Twitter), a team like the Hawks (20-47) has played 67 games, while the Timberwolves (19-45) have played just 64. Technically, Atlanta is a half-game back of Minnesota in the overall standings as a result of those two extra losses, but the Hawks have a better winning percentage. Does that mean the Wolves will receive the better lottery odds?

Beyond those bottom-eight teams, it remains to be seen how the rest of the lottery will be handled. If a team like the Wizards – currently ninth in the lottery standings – improbably earns the eighth seed in the East via a play-in tournament, will they be excluded from the lottery? Will the lottery odds for the Nos. 9-14 teams in the lottery be based on current records, or will they be based on the standings after eight more regular season games? Should those teams be included in the lottery at all, considering they’ve now been given a chance to earn a postseason spot?

The draft lottery, which is now expected to happen in August, may not be the NBA’s top concern at the moment, but it will certainly be a priority for many of the league’s franchises, especially those whose seasons are about to be over.

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Washington Wizards

May 29th, 2020 at 8:32pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

The Wizards‘ salary cap flexibility over the last couple years has been compromised by the fact that their highest-paid player – and one of the highest-paid players in the entire NBA – has been on the shelf with injuries since December of 2018. However, John Wall is set to return to the court next season, as some other money – including Ian Mahinmi‘s sizable deal – comes off the team’s books.

That doesn’t mean that the Wizards are in a great position to spend. Their unwillingness to trade Davis Bertans at the deadline signaled that they want to re-sign him, and doing so may limit the club’s ability to do a whole lot else this offseason.

Here’s where things stand for the Wizards financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Isaac Bonga ($1,663,861) 2
  • Anzejs Pasecniks ($1,267,981) 1
  • Total: $2,931,842

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume all the Wizards’ players on guaranteed and non-guaranteed contracts return and that the team gets the No. 9 pick in the lottery, that would work out to about $107.5MM in commitments for 12 roster spots. Re-signing Bertans to a contract in the $10-15MM neighborhood would take team salary well over the cap.

If Bertans signs elsewhere or returns on a reasonably team-friendly deal, the Wizards would still have a decent amount of breathing room below the luxury tax line, opening the door to potentially use their full mid-level exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 5
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,623,000 5

Footnotes

  1. Pasecniks’ new salary guarantee date is not known.
  2. Bonga’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 17.
  3. The cap hold for this pick will depend on where it ultimately falls in the lottery. Currently, the Wizards rank ninth in the lottery standings.
  4. The cap holds for Lawson, Randle, and Sessions remain on the Wizards’ books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2019/20. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. These are projected values. If the Wizards’ team salary continues to increase, they may be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,718,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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