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Revisiting 2019/20 NBA Over/Under Predictions

July 23rd, 2020 at 3:48pm CST by Luke Adams

Before the 2019/20 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Bucks (57.5 wins) to the Hornets (23.5), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

Unfortunately, one effect of the stoppage caused by the coronavirus pandemic was to ensure that no NBA team will actually play a full 82-game schedule this season, which means many of those over/under predictions won’t be resolved.

If you had bet on a team’s win total at a Vegas casino or a major sportsbook, the abridged season may have resulted in your bet being voided. But since our predictions were just for fun, we might as well take a look back at them to see which ones were on track to be right or wrong — and which ones were still very much up in the air when the season was suspended in March.

Let’s dive in…

Eastern Conference

Picks that were on pace to be right:

Our voters seemingly had a much better handle on the Central than on the other two Eastern divisions, accurately picking four of five Central over/unders while only nailing one team in the Atlantic and one in the Southeast.

Of these six teams, the Bucks and Heat were virtual locks to surpass their projected win totals and hit the over. The Pacers would have had to go 7-10 down the stretch to miss their over, while the Bulls would’ve had to go 12-5 to avoid the under — neither was particularly likely.

The Knicks and Cavaliers were the only two that were really up in the air here. They only would’ve had to go 7-9 and 6-11, respectively, to exceed their projections. That wouldn’t have been out of the question.

Picks that were on pace to be wrong:

The Atlantic didn’t play out like our voters expected this season, with the Raptors and Celtics outperforming regular-season expectations, while the Sixers and Nets were on track to fall short of theirs.

The bottom of the conference was a bit of a mess as well. The Wizards and Hornets were expected to be among the East’s worst teams, but weren’t quite as bad as anticipated. The Pistons and Hawks, meanwhile, fell short of their goals for the season in part because they were without key frontcourt players (Blake Griffin and John Collins) for big chunks of the year.

In the middle, the Magic still had a chance to get to 42 wins if they’d been able to recapture their end-of-season form from 2018/19, when they followed a 20-31 start with a 22-9 finish.

Western Conference

Picks that were on pace to be right:

Some of these were pretty close calls. The Clippers were on pace to win 56 games; the Nuggets were on track to get to 54 victories; the Jazz were on pace to get to 53 wins; the Rockets were on track to win 51 games; and the Pelicans‘ soft end-of-season schedule would given them a realistic chance to get to 40+ wins.

Other predictions were more comfortable victories though. The Lakers and Mavericks were projected to blow past their preseason over/under numbers, and the Timberwolves would’ve had to finish the season on a 17-1 run to avoid falling short of their projected win total.

Importantly, eight teams are listed in this section, which means our voters had a winning record on their Western Conference picks!

Picks that were on pace to be wrong:

We were way off on the Thunder, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Warriors, who had already clinched their respective overs or unders even before the season went on hiatus. The Kings and Suns, at least, probably would have finished in the relative vicinity of their preseason projections.

For a second straight season, our readers finished with a 14-16 record in their over/under picks, though this year definitely comes with an asterisk — maybe we can talk ourselves into believing we would’ve gotten to at least .500 if the season had played out in full.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Which Top FAs Will Change Teams This Fall?

July 16th, 2020 at 3:54pm CST by Luke Adams

On Wednesday, we published the latest iteration of our 2020 NBA free agent power rankings, with Lakers big man Anthony Davis and Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram atop the list.

Davis and Ingram have something in common, besides having been traded for one another last summer and becoming Western Conference All-Stars together in February — neither player is likely to change teams this fall when he reaches the open market.

Davis will be an unrestricted free agent, but there’s no compelling reason for him to leave Los Angeles. The Lakers were the team he wanted to join when he first requested a trade out of New Orleans, and his first year in L.A. has been a massive success. Despite the unusual circumstances created by the coronavirus pandemic, the Lakers remain in position to secure the No. 1 seed in the West and are one of a handful of teams with a legit chance to win the 2020 championship.

Ingram, meanwhile, will be a restricted free agent at season’s end, meaning the Pelicans will have the opportunity to control the process by matching any offer sheet he signs. It’s possible a rival suitor will put some pressure on the Pels if they don’t put the max on the table, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which New Orleans simply lets its rising young star get away. Sources within the Pelicans front office recently reiterated to ESPN that they consider Ingram a key cornerstone piece going forward.

If Davis and Ingram stay with their respective clubs, that means someone a little further down on our power rankings will become the top free agent to change teams this offseason.

That player seems unlikely to be Kings swingman Bogdan Bogdanovic or Timberwolves guard Malik Beasley, both of whom will be restricted. The Wizards have expressed strong interest in re-signing Davis Bertans and I’d expect the Raptors to work just as hard to retain Fred VanVleet, but perhaps an exorbitant outside offer could sway one of them away from his incumbent team?

How about Clippers center Montrezl Harrell or Thunder forward Danilo Gallinari? The Clips already have $109MM in guaranteed money on next season’s cap and may be reluctant to spend big to retain all three of their key frontcourt free-agents-to-be (Harris, Marcus Morris, and JaMychal Green). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, is positioned for a possible rebuild in 2021 and might not view Gallinari as part of its future plans.

Joe Harris (Nets), Serge Ibaka (Raptors), Morris (Clippers), Jerami Grant (Nuggets), Christian Wood (Pistons), and Paul Millsap (Nuggets) are among the next unrestricted free agents on our list who are candidates to change teams if the right opportunity materializes.

We want to know what you think. Who do you believe will be the best free agent to change teams this fall? Do you expect a lot of movement among top free agents, or do you think most of them are more likely to stay with their current clubs? If they do change teams, where do you see them landing?

Head below to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery

July 16th, 2020 at 9:30am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s draft lottery, which takes place annually between the end of the regular season and the draft, is the league’s way of determining the draft order and disincentivizing second-half tanking. The lottery gives each of the 14 non-playoff teams – or whichever clubs hold those teams’ first-round picks – a chance to land one of the top four selections in the draft.

Although the top four picks of each draft are up for grabs via the lottery, the remaining order is determined by record, worst to best. The league’s worst team isn’t guaranteed a top-four spot in the draft, but is tied for the best chance to land the first overall pick and will receive the fifth overall selection at worst.

The first four picks are determined by a draw of ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14. Four balls are drawn, resulting in a total of 1,001 possible outcomes. 1,000 of those outcomes are assigned to the 14-non playoff teams — for instance, if balls numbered 4, 7, 8, and 13 were chosen, that combination would belong to one of the 14 lottery teams. The 1,001st combination remains unassigned, and a re-draw would occur if it were ever selected.

The team whose combination is drawn first receives the number one overall pick, and the process is repeated to determine picks two, three, and four. The 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are all assigned a specific number of combinations, as follows (worst to best):

  1. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the first overall pick
  2. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  3. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  4. 125 combinations, 12.5%
  5. 105 combinations, 10.5%
  6. 90 combinations, 9.0%
  7. 75 combinations, 7.5%
  8. 60 combinations, 6.0%
  9. 45 combinations, 4.5%
  10. 30 combinations, 3.0%
  11. 20 combinations, 2.0%
  12. 15 combinations, 1.5%
  13. 10 combinations, 1.0%
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5%

If two lottery teams finish the season with identical records, each team receives an equal chance at a top-four pick by averaging the total amount of outcomes for their two positions. For instance, if two teams tie for the league’s fourth-worst record, each club would receive 115 combinations and an 11.5% chance at the first overall pick — an average of the 125 and 105 combinations that the fourth- and fifth-worst teams receive.

If the average amount of combinations for two positions isn’t a whole number, a coin flip determines which team receives the extra combination. For example, if two clubs tied for the league’s third-worst record, the team that wins the coin flip would receive 133 of 1,000 chances at the first overall pick, while the loser would receive 132. The coin flip also determines which team will draft higher in the event that neither club earns a top-four pick.

The table below displays the odds for each lottery team, rounded to one decimal place. Seeds are listed in the left column, while the picks are noted along the top row. For our purposes, the first seed is the NBA’s worst team.

Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
2 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
3 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7 – – – – – – –
4 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2 – – – – – –
5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
6 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
7 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
8 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
9 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
10 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
11 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
12 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
13 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 – – – – – – – – 92.9 2.3
14 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

It’s worth noting that the NBA’s lottery format was changed in 2019, with that year’s draft representing the first one that used the new system. Previously, only the top three spots were determined via the lottery and the odds were weighted more in favor of the league’s worst teams.

The odds-smoothing effects of the new system were felt immediately. The Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers – who claimed the Nos. 1, 2, and 4 picks, respectively, in 2019 – each ranked outside of the top six in the initial lottery standings.

In 2020, the lottery format has been tweaked slightly to account for the fact that the NBA was unable to play out its full regular season. The eight teams that were not invited to Orlando to participate in the resumption of the season will receive the top eight spots in the lottery standings. The final six spots will go to the six clubs that don’t make the postseason in Orlando, sorted by their records through March 11.

We previously broke down what the 2020 lottery odds will look like if the Nets, Magic, and Grizzlies all hang onto their playoff spots. This year’s event has been postponed until August 25.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Tankathon.com and Wikipedia was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in 2012, 2013, and 2019.

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2020 NBA Free Agent Power Rankings 3.0

July 15th, 2020 at 3:00pm CST by Luke Adams

A lot has changed since we published the second installment of our 2020 NBA free agent power rankings at the end of January. One player who showed up on that list (Dillon Brooks) has since signed a contract extension, taking himself off the 2020 market. More importantly though, the coronavirus pandemic has upended the NBA season and changed the landscape of the ’20 offseason.

In a normal year, most or all of the free agents on our last list would have come off the board by now, reaching contract agreements with new teams or their old clubs shortly after the negotiation period opened on June 30. Now though, the new league year has been pushed back to the fall — the 2020 free agent negotiating period won’t open until October 18.

Additionally, the stoppage forced by COVID-19 and the uncertainty surrounding the 2020/21 season will result in next season’s salary cap coming in lower than initially expected, and many teams around the NBA figure to tighten their purse strings when it comes to free agent spending. That means that the majority of the veterans who hold lucrative player options for ’20/21 are far more likely to simply exercise those options than to try their luck on the open market.

As a result, we’re taking many of the players that were on the last version of our FA power rankings off our list this time around. Andre Drummond, Gordon Hayward, DeMar DeRozan, Evan Fournier, and Tim Hardaway are among the players we’re now projecting to opt into the final year of their respective contracts rather than becoming free agents this fall.

As always, this list reflects each player’s current expected value on the 2020 free agent market, rather than a their present-day on-court contributions. For instance, an older player like Marc Gasol has strong short-term value, but didn’t crack our top 20 because he’s entering his age-36 season and is unlikely to sign a lucrative multiyear deal. In other words, age and long-term value are important.

If you need a refresher on which players will be free agents this fall, be sure to check out our FA lists sorted by position/type and by team.

With all that in mind, here’s the third installment of our 2020 free agent power rankings:

  1. Anthony Davis, F/C, Lakers (player option): Davis is the one player who remains a lock to turn down his option for 2020/21 — the cap would have to dip below $96MM for his $28.75MM option salary to be worth more than the 30% max he’d earn as a free agent. He also seems extremely likely to stick with the Lakers, given the team’s success this season, meaning the only mystery left is whether he’ll sign a short- or long-term deal.
  2. Brandon Ingram, F, Pelicans (RFA): Besides Davis, Ingram is the best bet of any free agent this fall to sign a maximum-salary contract. Despite his looming payday, the Pelicans forward said he never considered sitting out the NBA’s restart this summer as his team prepares to push for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference.
  3. Fred VanVleet, G, Raptors: VanVleet has 76 career NBA starts under his belt, so his placement at No. 3 on this list is perhaps an indictment of the 2020 free agent class as a whole. Don’t sleep on his earning potential though. Rebuilding teams with cap room and a need at point guard – such as the Pistons or Knicks – may view the 26-year-old as an ideal long-term answer, given his abilities as a shooter, play-maker, and defender, which could force the Raptors into a bidding war.
  4. Montrezl Harrell, C, Clippers: Like VanVleet, Harrell is just 26 years old, meaning potential suitors can be pretty confident they’ll be getting his prime seasons even at the end of a four-year offer. Harrell’s per-36-minute production in his contract year (24.1 PPG, 9.2 RPG) has been better than ever, making him an intriguing long-term investment for a club in need of help up front.
  5. Bogdan Bogdanovic, G/F, Kings (RFA): The Kings’ trade-deadline moves, which included moving Dewayne Dedmon‘s pricey multiyear contract for a pair of expiring deals, suggest the team will prioritize locking up Bogdanovic to a new contract this fall. Bogdanovic made a strong impression in the weeks before the NBA season was suspended, moving into Sacramento’s starting lineup without his production missing a beat.
  6. Davis Bertans, F, Wizards: Unlike everyone else on this list, Bertans decided not to participate in the NBA’s restart this summer, citing his history of ACL injuries when he opted out. Still, the decision shouldn’t hurt Bertans’ value on the open market — his .424 3PT% on 8.7 three-point attempts per game make him one of the game’s most valuable stretch fours. The Wizards reportedly want to re-sign him, but they’ll likely face stiff competition.
  7. Malik Beasley, G, Timberwolves (RFA): No one saw his free agency value affected more significantly by a trade-deadline deal than Beasley, who went from an inconsistent bench piece in Denver to a full-time starter and key contributor in Minnesota. Beasley’s performance in 14 post-deadline contests (20.7 PPG and 5.1 RPG with a .426 3PT%) was a double-edged sword for the Timberwolves, who had to feel great about their decision to acquire Beasley and a little less great about his rising price tag.
  8. Danilo Gallinari, F, Thunder: Gallinari’s age (32 in August) and injury history work against his odds of securing a lucrative long-term deal, but he has been one of the NBA’s most reliable frontcourt scorers over the last couple years, averaging 19.5 PPG on .452/.421/.897 shooting since the start of the 2018/19 season.
  9. Joe Harris, G/F, Nets: Three-point shooting is more important than ever in the modern NBA and few players do it better than Harris, who has made 43.6% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last three seasons.
  10. Serge Ibaka, F/C, Raptors: Ibaka, who turns 31 in September, isn’t the rim-protecting menace he was during his days with the Thunder, when he led the NBA in blocks in consecutive seasons. But he’s still a strong interior defender who can hold his own on switches and contributes on offense — his .398 3PT% in 2019/20 is a career high and will certainly appeal to potential suitors.
  11. Marcus Morris, F, Clippers: Morris was a little shaky in his first 12 games with the Clippers following a deadline deal — his scoring average was cut in half and his percentages dipped to 38.6% from the floor and 28.3% from three. Still, when taking into account the eye-popping numbers he was posting in New York, his full-season stats are strong, and he’s capable of defending offensive-minded forwards.
  12. Jerami Grant, F, Nuggets (player option): It took some time for Grant to adjust to his new team, but he showed in the two months leading up to the hiatus why the Nuggets were willing to surrender a first-round pick for him last summer. In his last 26 games, Grant averaged 14.0 PPG on .481/.420/.785 shooting, and the Nuggets were better with him on the court than off it.
  13. Christian Wood, F/C, Pistons: Wood played well through the season on a per-minute basis. However, he didn’t secure a spot on this list until he entered the starting lineup following the trade deadline and kept up his strong per-minute production while taking on a larger role. In his last 13 games, he posted 22.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 1.0 BPG, and a shooting line of .562/.400/.757. Now he’ll enter unrestricted free agency at age 25.
  14. Paul Millsap, F, Nuggets: I left Millsap off the first two iterations of our 2020 free agent power rankings due to the fact that he’ll turn 36 next February. But the more I see of him this season, the more I’m convinced he’ll still receive a nice payday on a two- or three-year deal this fall. His .440 3PT% is a career high and his impact on the Nuggets’ defense shouldn’t be overlooked. The club has a 102.2 defensive rating when Millsap plays, compared to 110.7 when he doesn’t.
  15. Hassan Whiteside, C, Trail Blazers: Whiteside’s impressive individual statistics don’t always translate to team success, but he deserves credit for the impact he’s had in Portland this season. His 3.1 blocks per game lead the NBA and his 14.2 rebounds per contest rank second. The Blazers have missed Jusuf Nurkic, but Whiteside has been as strong a replacement as the team could have realistically hoped for.
  16. Derrick Favors, C, Pelicans: The former third overall pick will never be an All-Star, but he’s still just 29 years old and has established himself as a reliable defender and rebounder (he’s averaging a career-best 9.9 RPG this season). While certain free agents get paid based on their potential ceiling, Favors’ value stems from his relatively high floor.
  17. Derrick Jones, F, Heat: Jones will reach unrestricted free agency at age 23, which is pretty uncommon for a rotation player on a top-four team in a conference. His numbers don’t jump off the page and his lack of a three-point shot will limit his value this fall. However, Jones is a tremendous athlete and a strong perimeter defender who still has room to improve.
  18. Tristan Thompson, C, Cavaliers: Thompson had one of his best seasons in 2019/20, averaging a double-double (12.0 PPG, 10.1 RPG) with a career-high in APG (2.1). He doesn’t necessarily have the versatility or shooting ability that teams would like to see from their bigs, but his skill set has value and he still has some prime years left.
  19. De’Anthony Melton, G, Grizzlies (RFA): It can be tricky to identify which second- or third-tier restricted free agent will do the best on the open market, since it only takes one suitor to drive up a player’s price. Fellow RFAs Jakob Poeltl and Dario Saric could certainly get better offers this fall than Melton, but I’m a big fan of the Grizzlies guard, an excellent perimeter defender whose +6.2 net rating this season is easily the best mark on the team.
  20. Aron Baynes, C, Suns: I was a little surprised that I ended up finding a spot on this list for Baynes, who will turn 34 this December and has never earned more than $6.5MM in a season. Perhaps I’m slightly overrating his strong season in Phoenix, but the big man showed an ability to score (11.5 PPG) and shoot (.351 3PT%) that he hadn’t before. Already a terrific screen-setter and strong defender, Baynes may be in line for the most lucrative contract of his career this fall. Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard, and Jordan Clarkson were among the other candidates for this last spot.

As I noted in the intro, there are some veterans who would earn a spot on this list – or would at least receive consideration – if they turn down player options and become free agents. At this point, I think they’re unlikely to do so, but not all of them are a lock to opt in. Here are some of the most notable names in that group with player options for 2020/21:

  • Avery Bradley, G, Lakers ($5,005,350)
  • Mike Conley, G, Jazz ($34,502,132)
  • DeMar DeRozan, G, Spurs ($27,739,975)
  • Andre Drummond, C, Cavaliers ($28,751,774)
  • Evan Fournier, G/F, Magic ($17,150,000)
  • Tim Hardaway Jr., G/F, Mavericks ($18,975,000)
  • Gordon Hayward, F, Celtics ($34,187,085)

Disagree strongly with any of our rankings? Feel like we omitted any players that should be in the top 20? Weigh in below in the comments section to let us know!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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List Of Substitute Players Signed For NBA Restart

July 14th, 2020 at 12:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of players who have opted out of the NBA restart (or who have been replaced after they contracted COVID-19) includes details on the substitute players who have been signed to replace them. However, not every player who has signed a substitute contract this summer is mentioned within that list.

Players who were signed in place of promoted two-way players or who filled empty two-way contract slots are also among those who technically signed “substitute contracts.” While they’re not replacing a specific player, they fall into the same category as those substitute players who have been signed as a result of opt-outs or positive coronavirus tests.

The following details, which don’t apply to players who signed traditional contracts, apply to substitute players:

  • Their contracts (all of which are worth the minimum) don’t count against their teams’ salary caps.
  • They’ll be unrestricted free agents at season’s end, even if they don’t yet have four years of NBA experience.
  • They won’t have any form of Bird rights (including Non-Bird rights) at season’s end.
    • Note: In a case like Jerian Grant‘s, his Bird rights will actually belong to his old team (the Magic) rather than his current team (the Wizards), since Orlando never renounced him.

Essentially, these substitute contracts are just meant to provide teams with enough bodies not to be short-handed in Orlando this summer. Clubs like the Nets that have to sign multiple substitute players won’t benefit from holding the rights to those players after the season and won’t have the opportunity to make them restricted free agents. However, they also won’t face any additional cap penalties by having to sign several substitute players.

Teams can sign substitute players up until the last day of the seeding games in mid-August. Even after that point, clubs can continue to sign substitute players to replace players who test positive for COVID-19, though substitutes signed in the postseason must have between zero and three years of NBA experience.

Listed below are the players who have signed substitute contracts for the summer. We’ll continue to update this list as more deals are finalized.

Brooklyn Nets

Dallas Mavericks

Denver Nuggets

Houston Rockets

Los Angeles Lakers

New Orleans Pelicans

Oklahoma City Thunder

Philadelphia 76ers

Portland Trail Blazers

Washington Wizards

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Western Conference Seeding

July 13th, 2020 at 1:10pm CST by Luke Adams

As we detailed on Friday when we discussed the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, there will be an opportunity for teams to move up – or down – in the standings when play resumes on July 30.

With eight “seeding games” on tap, teams are unlikely to make up five- or six-game deficits on the clubs ahead of them in the standings, but there’s a strong likelihood of a shake-up in instances where teams are only separated by a game or two.

That’s even more true in the Western Conference than it is in the East, albeit not necessarily at the very top of the standings, where the 49-14 Lakers hold a fairly comfortable lead on the 44-20 Clippers. The Lakers’ magic number to clinch the conference is just three, so they’re a safe bet to hang onto the No. 1 seed.

After that though, there’s some congestion in the standings. The Clippers’ lead on the Nuggets (43-22) is just 1.5 games. Denver holds an identical lead over the Jazz (41-23). Utah, meanwhile, is just a couple losses away from slipping down to the No. 6 seed, as the Thunder (40-24) and Rockets (40-24) are right on their heels. The 40-27 Mavericks round out this group of six teams, a game-and-a-half behind OKC and Houston and just 5.5 games behind the second-seeded Clippers.

A number of those six clubs bunched up in the middle of the Western Conference playoff picture will face one another when play resumes. For instance, the Thunder – who have the potential to move up or down a couple spots in the standings – will open the restart against the Jazz and Nuggets and eventually finish their season against the Clippers. The Clips will face the Mavericks and Nuggets in addition to OKC. Dallas opens its eight seeding games by playing the Rockets.

Given the strength of competition in the West, seeding could be paramount in the postseason. The Nuggets, for example, could conceivably face the Jazz, Thunder, Rockets, or Mavs in the first round and would likely prefer some opponents to others in that group. The Jazz, currently at No. 4, could be motivated to avoid the No. 6 Rockets in the first round, since they’ve been eliminated by Houston in each of the previous two postseasons.

At the bottom of the playoff picture, the No. 8 Grizzlies (32-33) have essentially no chance to move up, since they’re seven games back of Dallas. But they’ll be looking to increase their lead over the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, and Suns — if they can finish with more than a four-game lead on all those clubs, they’ll avoid a play-in tournament. If the Nos. 8 and 9 seeds finish within four games of one another, a play-in tournament will be necessary to determine that final playoff spot.

A newly-healthy Blazers squad will be a major threat to the Grizzlies, as will a Pelicans team that faces one of the league’s weakest schedules over the course of the eight seeding games.

What do you think? Do you think we’ll see much movement in the Western Conference’s top eight? Will the Grizzlies be knocked out by one of the challengers behind them in the standings? What do you expect the West’s top eight seeds to look like by the time the playoffs begin?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your predictions!

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Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Seeding

July 10th, 2020 at 11:50am CST by Luke Adams

Although the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference will still be up for grabs when the NBA’s eight “seeding” games begin on July 30, that race has lost much of its luster as a result of the injuries, COVID-19 cases, and opt-outs that have decimated the Nets‘ and Wizards‘ rosters.

Technically, the Magic (30-35) are the No. 8 seed at the moment, but they’re just a half-game back of Brooklyn (30-34) for the No. 7 spot and seem likely to pass a Nets team that will be without at least seven players, including Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, and DeAndre Jordan.

That would leave the Nets to hang onto the No. 8 seed by holding off the Wizards (24-40), who will be missing Bradley Beal, Davis Bertans, and John Wall, but could force a play-in tournament if they finish within four games of Orlando or Brooklyn. Washington is also currently without Thomas Bryant (coronavirus), Gary Payton II (coronavirus), and Garrison Mathews (personal), though some or all of those players may eventually rejoin the team.

While that race for the seventh and eighth seeds may not be quite as dramatic as the NBA would like, there could still be some interesting jockeying for position further up the standings in the East.

The 53-12 Bucks have a 6.5-game cushion over the 46-18 Raptors, so Milwaukee will likely clinch the top seed even if they’re on cruise control during the seeding games. But Toronto’s lead on the third-seeded Celtics (43-21) is just three games, and Boston’s eight-game schedule looks less daunting than the Raptors’ slate.

Five of the Celtics’ eight games are against the Nets, Wizards, Magic, Grizzlies, and Trail Blazers, all of whom are at or near the bottom of the playoff race. The Raptors, meanwhile, will face Orlando and Memphis, but also have games against the Lakers, Heat, Nuggets, Sixers, and Bucks. The Celtics and Raptors face each other as well, in a game that will have important tiebreaker implications.

That No. 2 seed isn’t as important as it once was, given the lack of home court advantage available, but it could mean facing the Magic instead of the Pacers, which should be a more favorable matchup even with Victor Oladipo sidelined.

Speaking of the Pacers, they’re currently tied at 39-26 with the Sixers, with the No. 5 seed up for grabs. Clinching that fifth seed would likely mean securing a first-round matchup with the fourth-seeded Heat instead of the Celtics or Raptors.

The Heat, meanwhile, are 41-24, putting them two games behind Boston and two games ahead of the Sixers and Pacers. They seem like a relatively safe bet to hold their position in the No. 4 vs. 5 matchup, but a hot or cold streak in Orlando could affect their spot in the standings, especially with games vs. Boston, Toronto, and Indiana (twice) on tap.

What do you think? What do you expect the top eight spots in the Eastern Conference to look like by the time the playoffs begin? Will they look relatively similar to the current standings, or will there be some shuffling that results in some unexpected first-round matchups?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Key 2020 NBA Offseason Dates, Deadlines

July 8th, 2020 at 1:54pm CST by Luke Adams

In a typical year, the NBA’s annual draft would have already taken place and the majority of the summer’s top free agents would have come off the board. However, 2020 is about as far from a typical year as we can imagine, which means the league’s usual offseason calendar has been upended.

We still don’t know exactly when the 2020/21 NBA season will start – or even whether the league will be able to safely finish the ’19/20 campaign – but the league has re-established new dates and deadlines for a number of offseason events.

With the help of information from ESPN’s Bobby Marks, here’s a breakdown of many of the NBA’s important dates and deadlines over the next few months:

August 3

  • Last day for early entrants to withdraw from the NBA draft and retain their NCAA eligibility (10:59pm CT).

August 15-16

  • Possible postseason play-in games take place.

August 17

  • NBA playoffs begin.
  • Deadline for early entrants to declare for the NBA draft (10:59pm CT).
    • Note: For more information on draft-related dates and deadlines, check out our full breakdown.

August 25

  • NBA draft lottery.

October 13

  • Latest possible end date for the 2020 NBA Finals.

November 8

  • Deadline for all early entrants (including international players) to withdraw from the NBA draft (4:00pm CT).

November 18

  • NBA draft day.

November 19

  • Last day for decisions on player, team and early termination options (4:00pm CT).
  • Last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.

November 20

  • Last official day of the 2019/20 NBA league year.
  • Teams can begin negotiating contracts with free agents (5:00pm CT).

November 21

  • Official start of the 2020/21 NBA league year.
  • Moratorium period begins.
  • Restricted free agents can sign an offer sheet.
  • Teams can begin signing players to rookie scale contracts, minimum salary contracts, and two-way contracts.
  • Third- and fourth-year rookie scale options for 2021/22 can be exercised.

November 22

  • Moratorium period ends (11:00am CT)
  • Teams can begin officially signing players, extending players, and completing trades.
  • The two-day period for matching an RFA offer sheet signed during the moratorium begins.

December 1

  • Training camps open

December 9

  • Last day for teams to waive players and apply the stretch provision to their 2020/21 salaries.

December 21:

  • Last day for players eligible for rookie scale extensions to sign new contracts.
  • Last day for players eligible for super-max extensions to sign new contracts.
  • Last day for players eligible for veteran contract extensions to sign new contracts (unless they’re in a contract year).

As gaps in the NBA’s late-offseason calendar get filled in, we’ll update this page with the latest info.

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Thabeet Staying Ready For Next Opportunity Despite Cancellation In TBT

July 6th, 2020 at 12:20pm CST by JD Shaw

Former No. 2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet has re-entered unrestricted free agency after a teammate in The Basketball Tournament tested positive for COVID-19 at the start of the month.

Thabeet, 33, was set to compete with the “Playing for Jimmy V” team during the annual tournament, but event rules mandate that any team who receives a positive test be disqualified from competing in the bracket any further. Thabeet tested negative for the coronavirus, a person with knowledge of the situation said.

Thabeet, a lengthy 7’3″ center, remains an intriguing option for teams in need of rim protection. He has received NBA and overseas interest over the past year, working out for teams such as the Knicks, Bucks, Nuggets and Warriors in 2019. The overall consensus remains the same regardless of the atmosphere he plays in: Thabeet appears to be in prime condition.

“Hasheem is in unbelievable shape,” Alex Neumann, the general manager of Playing for Jimmy V, told Hoops Rumors. “He looks better than he ever has. He still has his athleticism and got up and down the floor really well. 

“His basketball IQ is off the charts. Just helping the young guys on the team, helping in film sessions and putting in offensive sets — he absolutely looks like he belongs on the NBA court.”

Thabeet was drafted second overall in 2009 after spending three years at UConn, and subsequently made NBA stops with Memphis, Houston, Portland, Oklahoma City and the L.A. Lakers. He was selected in the first round of the 2019 NBA G League Draft to Fort Wayne after spending some time overseas.

Along with his shot-blocking abilities, Thabeet is known for being a respected locker room veteran — Nets superstar Kevin Durant previously stated that Thabeet was one of the best teammates he has ever had. Teams in need of rim protection entering the NBA’s campus in Orlando or training camp later this fall could turn to Thabeet, who is staying active and is eagerly anticipating his next opportunity.

“What I can bring to a team right now is a defensive aspect in the paint,” Thabeet told Hoops Rumors. “You have to know your role. I believe I can bring in defensive plays at a high level. 

“I’m ready to control the paint and get back to playing at a high level of basketball. I really believe I can still play at a high level once I get that one chance, then we’ll go from there.”

The 2019/20 NBA season is scheduled to resume on July 30, with free agency set to start in mid-October and training camps for next season tentatively expected to commence by the start of December. Teams in Orlando are eligible to sign substitute players to their rosters in the event that a player contracts COVID-19 or voluntarily opts out.

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Recap Of Moves Made During NBA’s Transaction Window

July 1st, 2020 at 8:30am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA went nearly three-and-a-half months without a single roster move being completed, as league business was put on hold during its coronavirus-related hiatus. However, that roster freeze was lifted last Tuesday (June 23), allowing the 22 teams going to Orlando this summer and the eight teams whose seasons are over to complete certain transactions during the next week.

Now that the transaction window has closed (as of 11:59pm ET on June 30), certain moves related to substitute players will still be permitted, as we detailed on Tuesday. In fact, today could be somewhat busy, as clubs who have already reached agreements with substitute players make those deals official after noon eastern time. However, the standard signings and two-way conversions that were permitted during the last week are now over for the season.

Listed below is a recap of the moves completed from June 23-30 during the NBA’s transaction window. Again, these are only transactions that become official this week, which is why substitute-player signings like J.R. Smith (Lakers) or Trey Burke (Mavericks) aren’t listed.

Brooklyn Nets

Swapping in Johnson for Pinson will be the first of many changes the Nets make to their summer roster. Wilson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan have opted out and Spencer Dinwiddie‘s status is up in the air, so Brooklyn will have at least a couple replacement players to sign — Justin Anderson is expected to be one.

Johnson’s contract is a rest-of-season deal, so he’ll be an unrestricted free agent this fall.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers entered the transaction window with a pair of open spots on their 15-man roster. They filled one with an outside signing (Bell) and promoted one of their two-way players (Wade) to occupy the other.

Both players received more than the minimum for the rest of 2019/20, with Wade getting $375K while Bell got $250K. In exchange, the Cavs get some flexibility on both contracts — Bell has a non-guaranteed salary for 2020/21, while Wade has three non-guaranteed seasons on his deal, through 2022/23.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets thought highly enough of Dozier to sign him to a new multiyear contract that includes more than $1MM in guaranteed money, which means he’ll get a significant partial guarantee on his 2020/21 salary. According to Jeff Siegel of Early Bird Rights (Twitter link), that partial guarantee is worth about $1.2MM and the deal includes a non-guaranteed salary for ’21/22.

Cook, meanwhile, slides into Dozier’s two-way slot as a replacement and will be a free agent at season’s end.

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons had a full roster when the NBA went on hiatus, but because Donta Hall‘s 10-day contract has since expired, they opened up a spot during the transaction window. They used it on Patton, whose new deal reportedly includes a non-guaranteed second year. The signing was Troy Weaver‘s first move as Detroit’s general manager.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets made one of the more curious transactions of the last week, signing Nwaba to a two-year deal that reportedly includes $900K for this season, despite the fact that the swingman is still recovering from an Achilles tear and won’t be available in Orlando. Houston apparently viewed Nwaba as an ideal three-and-D fit and was willing to pay him nearly $1MM up front to get a team option on him for 2020/21.

Los Angeles Clippers

Noah was just three days into a 10-day contract with the Clippers when the season was suspended in March. That deal was always viewed as a trial run that would likely lead to a rest-of-season commitment, so it came as no surprise when L.A. made that rest-of-season commitment last week.

Memphis Grizzlies

Like Noah, Tolliver was on a 10-day contract before the season was suspended. And like Noah, his team – the Grizzlies – wanted to bring him back on a rest-of-season deal to fill its final open roster spot.

New York Knicks

New Knicks president of basketball operations Leon Rose was active on the waiver wire this week, making the only two claims of the transaction window. Pinson has a team option for 2020/21, while Harper will be eligible for restricted free agency. Trier, meanwhile, had been up for restricted free agency but now hits the unrestricted market early.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The conversion of Dort’s contract was one of the least surprising moves of the week, as he has emerged into a consistent starter on the wing for the Thunder. Oklahoma City got him on a pretty team-friendly four-year minimum-salary deal, which runs through 2022/23. It’s fully guaranteed for ’20/21 with partial guarantees on the final two years.

Hall, a former Thunder draft pick, slides into Dort’s vacated two-way slot and will be a free agent at season’s end.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers didn’t have any openings on their 15-man roster, but had a two-way slot available to be filled. They used it to add more shooting depth — Broekhoff, who will be a free agent this fall, knocked down 40.3% of his three-point attempts in a part-time role in two NBA seasons.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns’ release of Harper was more than three months in the making and finally became official last week. Phoenix didn’t end up filling his two-way slot, but signed Payne to a two-year deal to take the open spot on the 15-man roster. Payne will add more backcourt depth for the restart this summer and the Suns will have the option of bringing him back for 2020/21 as well.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings will enter the resumption of the season 3.5 games back of Memphis for the final playoff spot in the West. With an open roster spot, they prioritized a player who could contribute immediately, settling on Brewer, who played for Sacramento last season. He’ll give the Kings more depth on the wing, having signed a rest-of-season contract.

San Antonio Spurs

Another challenger for that No. 8 seed in the West, the Spurs needed some frontcourt depth after losing LaMarcus Aldridge to a shoulder injury that will sideline him for the rest of the 2019/20 season. Zeller represents a safe veteran option. His deal with San Antonio includes a non-guaranteed salary for next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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