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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Sacramento Kings

May 22nd, 2020 at 4:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

The Kings‘ 39-43 performance in 2018/19 qualified as a breakthrough. It was the team’s best record in 13 years, after all. Sacramento didn’t take another step forward in ’19/20, but hung around the outskirts of the playoff race even as former No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III missed most of the season and other key contributors – like De’Aaron Fox and Richaun Holmes – were sidelined with injuries for extended stretches.

Continued development from young players like Fox and Bagley will be crucial as the Kings look to make the leap from frisky lottery team to solid playoff contender. However, the team’s young core will start getting more expensive going forward, beginning with Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic in 2020/21.

Here’s where things stand for the Kings financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Parker will likely opt in, so adding his salary and the cap hold for Sacramento’s first-round pick increases the club’s guaranteed commitments to about $94MM for nine roster spots. It’s safe to assume the Kings will do all they can to re-sign Bogdanovic too, so they’ll operate as an over-the-cap team.

A deadline deal that sent Dewayne Dedmon to Atlanta ensured that the Kings should have the flexibility to negotiate a market-value deal – or match any reasonable offer sheet – for Bogdanovic without approaching the luxury tax line. As such, Sacramento should have the non-taxpayer mid-level and bi-annual exceptions at its disposal this offseason, though it might not make sense to use both exceptions in full — especially if the team wants to retain Bjelica, Bazemore, or any of its other free agents.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,623,000 3
  • Trade exception: $2,673,334 (expires 2/8/21)

Footnotes

  1. Bjelica’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 17.
  2. The Kings can’t offer Giles a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his rookie scale team option for 2020/21 was declined.
  3. These are projected values. If team salary gets high enough, it’s possible the Kings would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,718,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020/21 NBA Salary Cap Preview Series

May 22nd, 2020 at 1:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Even as it remains unclear when exactly the 2020 NBA offseason will happen, Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 teams, breaking down the guaranteed salaries, non-guaranteed salaries, options, free agents, and cap holds on each club’s books.

Due to the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the salary cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that the cap for next season will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, and the numbers in our previews reflect that. However, it’s entirely possible next year’s cap will end up higher or even lower than that.

You can find the link to your favorite team’s offseason salary cap digest below. You can find this post anytime on the right-hand sidebar of our desktop site under “Hoops Rumors Features,” or under “Features” in our mobile menu.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

May 21st, 2020 at 6:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

After arguably overachieving in 2018/29 by winning 53 games and earning a trip to the Western Conference Finals, the Trail Blazers came back to earth in 2019/20. Plagued by some bad injury luck that resulted in Jusuf Nurkic, Rodney Hood, and Zach Collins missing nearly the entire season, Portland was just 29-37 when the NBA went on hiatus.

Fortunately, the team will finally be out from under its ill-advised 2016 spending spree going forward. Although that doesn’t mean that the Blazers will gain any cap room during the 2020 offseason, it does mean that the club probably won’t be flirting with the tax anymore and should have a little extra spending flexibility going forward.

Here’s where things stand for the Trail Blazers financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Trevor Ariza ($11,000,000) 1
  • Total: $11,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we add the cap hold for their first-round pick to their guaranteed salaries and assume Hood and Hezonja opt in, the Blazers will be up near $105MM in commitments for 10 roster spots, eliminating the possibility of cap room.

Portland’s spending ability from there will depend in large part on what the club does with Ariza and Whiteside. Both veterans played well for the Blazers, but it may not make sense to guarantee Ariza’s $12.8MM salary or to pay market value to re-sign Whiteside with Nurkic due back. If neither player returns, the team would be able to comfortably use its full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception without nearing the tax line. If even one is retained, using those exceptions in full would be more challenging.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,623,000 4
  • Trade exception: $7,069,662 (expires 1/21/21)
  • Trade exception: $2,338,847 (expires 2/8/21)
  • Trade exception: $1,790,993 (expires 7/8/20)

Footnotes

  1. Ariza’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 18.
  2. Whiteside’s cap hold will be equivalent to 30% of the 2020/21 salary cap.
  3. The Trail Blazers can’t offer Swanigan a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his rookie scale team option for 2020/21 was declined.
  4. These are projected values. If team salary gets high enough, it’s possible the Trail Blazers would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,718,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Top Prospect In 2020 NBA Draft

May 21st, 2020 at 1:52pm CST by Luke Adams

When Zion Williamson went first overall in the 2019 NBA draft, it came as no surprise — he had been considered the top prospect in last year’s class for months, well before we knew which team would get the No. 1 pick. For the most part, the same can be said of other recent top picks like Anthony Davis (2012), Karl-Anthony Towns (2015), and perhaps even Markelle Fultz (2017).

On the other hand, some drafts have two or three prospects in the top tier. A number of draft experts believed Luka Doncic should be picked ahead of Deandre Ayton in 2018. In 2016, the debate over the No. 1 pick was between Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram.

The 2020 draft class, however, looks most similar to 2013’s group. That year, Nerlens Noel, Alex Len, Ben McLemore, and Victor Oladipo were among the many players considered candidates to be drafted first overall. The Cavaliers didn’t take anyone from that group, opting instead for Anthony Bennett.

2020’s similarities to 2013’s draft class doesn’t mean that this year’s first overall pick will have a Bennett-esque NBA career, but so far, we have little clarity on which player might be the first one off the board. LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman, Anthony Edwards, Obi Toppin, and Killian Hayes are among the players who have shown up atop various experts’ draft rankings, with no consensus on which player most NBA teams favor.

In an attempt to gauge which way NBA teams are leaning, Jeff Goodman of Stadium anonymously polled 35 team executives and found that 20 of them picked Wiseman as the top player in this year’s class. Of course, the big man played just three games for Memphis in the fall before leaving the program due to eligibility issues, so evaluators and scouts didn’t get much of a look at him at the college level. And even those that NBA execs who favor Wiseman don’t sound particularly enthusiastic about their choice.

“I wouldn’t even want the No. 1 pick,” one NBA general manager told Goodman. “If I have it, I’m trying like hell to trade it.”

“It’s not an easy decision,” another GM offered. “(But) even though the NBA doesn’t value bigs like it used to, there just aren’t a lot of seven-footers who can run and jump like Wiseman can out there.”

While Wiseman received the majority of the votes in Goodman’s poll, Edwards (10 votes), Ball (four), and Toppin (one) also had supporters. The only real consensus? It won’t be an easy decision for whichever team wins this year’s draft lottery.

“This is an underwhelming draft at the top,” one high-ranking executive told Goodman. “It’s as difficult for the No. 1 pick as I’ve seen in a long time.”

This year’s top choice may ultimately come down to the specific needs and preferences of the team that wins the lottery. But in our poll today, we want you to put positional needs aside and assume all other factors are equal. In that scenario, which of this year’s prospects would you be most comfortable drafting first overall?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Phoenix Suns

May 19th, 2020 at 4:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

The Suns’ .400 winning percentage in 2019/20 technically represents the organization’s best mark since 2014/15. Still, the team – which had a 26-39 record when the NBA suspended its season – has yet to take a major step forward in its rebuild.

Continued development from Booker, Ayton, and Phoenix’s other young players will be the most important factor in Phoenix’s return to playoff contention. Still, there could be another path to improvement this offseason, as the Suns may be one of the NBA’s only teams with cap room, depending on what they decide to do with Dario Saric and Aron Baynes.

Here’s where things stand for the Suns financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Suns want to maximize their cap room, it would mean they’ll renounce at least Saric and Baynes while also turning down their team option on Kaminsky. In that scenario, the team could open up in the neighborhood of $16-19MM in space even if the cap doesn’t increase.

That’s not an unrealistic path for Phoenix, especially if the club has its eye on one or two specific free agent targets. However, it also wouldn’t be surprising if the Suns attempt to retain one or more of the veterans noted above, particularly Saric. That approach would likely mean operating as an over-the-cap team and gaining access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,767,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Okobo’s new salary guarantee date is unknown.
  2. The cap hold for this pick will depend on where it ultimately falls in the lottery. Currently, the Suns rank 10th in the lottery standings.
  3. This is a projected value. If the Suns operate as an over-the-cap team, they’d instead have access to have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,258,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,623,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Re-Examining NBA Player Options For 2020/21

May 19th, 2020 at 3:26pm CST by Luke Adams

Following the NBA’s salary cap spike four years ago, just eight of 53 veterans who held player options on their contracts in 2016 and 2017 actually exercised those options — the other 45 opted out in search of a larger and/or longer-term deal.

However, the pendulum has swung back in the other direction over the last couple years. Of the 55 vets who held player options in 2018 and 2019, just 20 opted out, with the rest choosing security and putting off their free agency by a year.

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 may represent one of the most extreme years in recent memory in terms of option decisions. Even with the NBA’s salary cap projected to increase to $115MM, less than one third of the league’s teams was expected to open up cap room. If the cap instead stays level – or declines – those teams will have even less flexibility. Suddenly, those option years may look a whole lot more appealing to players than trying to secure a big payday on the open market.

ESPN cap guru Bobby Marks recently predicted to Marc Berman of The New York Post that all 29 players with options for 2020/21 will pick them up. Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports conveyed a similar sentiment this morning, tweeting that he expects at least 27 of those players to opt in.

Are those predictions realistic? Let’s take a closer look at the NBA’s player options for 2020/21, dividing them up into four separate categories…

Group 1: The options that look too good to pass up

In all likelihood, these players would have opted in for 2020/21 regardless of whether or not the NBA’s revenue streams were disrupted. In each of these cases, the player’s option salary outweighs his likely value on the open market, either due to performance or injury. They look like safe bets to exercise their options for next season.

Group 2: The minimum-salary options

Players with minimum-salary options often turn them down even if they’re not sure they can get more than the minimum on their next deal, since there’s little downside. However, if the cap doesn’t increase, these players would be better off with their option salaries, which will be more lucrative than the minimum salary on a new contract. Rondo, for example, would make $2,564,753 next season if he opts out and signs a new minimum deal, if the cap stays at the same level.

In other words, the only way it would make sense for anyone in this group to opt out is if he felt confident in his chances of getting an offer above the minimum as a free agent. Maybe that’ll be the case for a solid rotation player like Matthews or Rivers, but it wouldn’t be a shock if all six of these guys opt in.

Group 3: It may not be worth rolling the dice in free agency

In a typical year, many of these players would likely think long and hard about opting out — even if they weren’t sure whether they’d be able to top their 2020/21 salaries in free agency, there would be a good chance of earning more overall money by signing a new, longer-term deal. For instance, Hayward won’t get any offers with a starting salary of $34MM, but a three- or four-year deal with a lesser annual salary could have been a win-win for him and the Celtics.

With the cap in flux though, these 11 players may be better off picking up their options and trying their luck on the 2021 free agent market. That’s especially true if they’re seeking an offer greater than the mid-level, like Drummond, Fournier, Hardaway, and Hayward would be. There just won’t be that many teams with both the desire and the necessary cap room to spend big on veteran free agents.

I wouldn’t consider most of these players locks to opt in, but I think they’re probably more likely than not to do so.

Group 4: Potential wild cards

Unless the salary cap really plummets, it still makes sense for Davis to opt out. The cap would have to dip below $96MM for his option salary to be worth more than the 30% max he’d earn as a free agent. Still, it seems unlikely that he’ll ink a long-term contract this offseason. A one-year guarantee with a second-year player option is probably his best bet for maximizing his earnings going forward.

DeRozan was the second player identified by Keith Smith as a candidate to opt out since it’s unclear whether or not he’s happy in San Antonio. A March report indicated the Spurs guard isn’t thrilled with his current situation, while another suggested he plans to opt out if he doesn’t receive a contract extension.

Those reports both came the week the NBA season was suspended, so even if they were accurate, it’s possible DeRozan’s mindset has changed over the last couple months. If not for the rumors about his potential dissatisfaction, I’d place him in Group 3 and assume he’d be opting in.

As for Grant, it’s possible he’ll play it safe and pick up his option, but even given a cap crunch, I don’t think there will be a shortage of teams willing to do a longer-term with a slightly higher average annual value than his $9.3MM option. If he opts in, he’d probably do so banking on the idea of getting more lucrative multiyear offers in 2021.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Most Interesting 2020 Lottery Outcome

May 19th, 2020 at 1:55pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020 NBA draft lottery was initially scheduled to be held tonight in Chicago. Of course, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the lottery, the subsequent combine, and just about everything else NBA-related has been postponed indefinitely.

Still, a Monday report provided an important update on this year’s lottery: its format and process is expected to remain unchanged. That means the NBA’s three worst teams will still have the best odds to land the No. 1 overall pick, even if those teams don’t complete a full 82-game schedule and end up playing a different number of games.

It’s possible the NBA will be able to resume play this summer and complete some of the regular season games that were initially supposed to take place in March and April. However, it seems just as possible at this point that not all of the league’s 30 teams will be asked to take part in the resumption of the season.

[RELATED: 2019/20 NBA Reverse Standings]

Even in the event that bottom-feeders like the Warriors, Cavaliers, and Timberwolves do play again, the results of their final few regular season games are unlikely to significantly alter their lottery odds. So the hypothetical odds we passed along in March will probably end up being pretty similar to what the NBA uses whenever the lottery finally arrives. As a reminder, here are those tentative odds:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
GSW 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
MIN 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1 – – – – – – –
ATL 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2 – – – – – –
DET 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6 – – – – –
NYK 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2 – – – –
CHI 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
CHA 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
WSH 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
PHX 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 18.9 1.2 >0 >0
SAS 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
SAC* 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 – – – – – – – 86.1 7.6 0.1
NOP* 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 – – – – – – – – 92.0 2.3
POR 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

With those odds in mind – and in honor of the lottery that would have happened tonight – we want to get your thoughts on what the most entertaining outcomes of the 2020 NBA draft lottery would be.

While this year’s draft class lacks a surefire No. 1 pick like Zion Williamson, prospects like LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman, Anthony Edwards, Onyeka Okongwu, Deni Avdija, and Obi Toppin should certainly appeal to 2020’s lottery teams, and jumping into the top four would be a big deal for some franchises in this group.

The NBA’s revamped lottery format ensures that the league’s very worst teams don’t have a huge advantage for the top picks and has created more opportunities for middle-of-the-pack lottery teams to get lucky. That’s exactly what happened a year ago — the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers (who eventually traded the No. 4 pick) moved into the top four despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th respectively in the lottery order. This year’s equivalent would be the Bulls and Hornets grabbing the top two picks, with the Spurs moving up to No. 4.

Teams like the Cavs, Pistons, and Knicks would more greatly benefit from landing a top pick, but there’s a chance the Warriors could end up at No. 1, despite already looking like a 2020/21 contender, with or without adding a potential future star to their roster.

Could the Wizards getting lucky and land a top rookie to add to the mix as John Wall returns? How about the Suns adding a top prospect to a core that already features Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton? Near-playoff teams like the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, and Kings, meanwhile, would become even more intriguing if they defy the odds and secure a top pick.

What do you think? Putting aside your fandom, what draft lottery outcome would be the most interesting or entertaining?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Community Shootaround: The Last Dance

May 18th, 2020 at 9:23am CST by Luke Adams

On Sunday night, ESPN aired the final two hours of The Last Dance, its 10-part documentary series that told the story of the Bulls‘ 1997/98 season, with a number of entertaining digressions along the way.

With nearly every North American professional sport on a hiatus for the time being, the Michael Jordan-centric series was well-timed. It dominated the discussion among basketball fans for five weeks while appealing to more casual viewers as well.

For older viewers, it was an opportunity to relive the Bulls’ dynasty of the 1990s while perhaps learning some new details along the way. For younger viewers who didn’t get a chance to follow Jordan in his prime, it was perhaps more illuminating, offering the opportunity to explore iconic NBA moments such as MJ’s series-winning shot over Cleveland in 1989, his rivalry with the Bad-Boy Pistons, and his return from an 18-month stint as a baseball player.

Even now that the documentary has finished airing, there are no shortage of topics to discuss. For instance, did 1998 really have to be the “last dance” for that Bulls dynasty? ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne explored this morning whether the team could have been kept intact beyond that season.

ESPN’s Royce Young, meanwhile, notes that Jordan said in the last installment of the doc that he would’ve been willing to sign up for one more year if the rest of the team’s key players were brought back too; on the other hand, ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link) expresses some skepticism that Scottie Pippen would have been on board to return when he had a massive offer from Houston waiting for him in free agency.

Of course, the ongoing Jordan vs. LeBron James debate hasn’t lost any momentum in recent weeks, though an ESPN survey suggests that The Last Dance may have helped tip the scales in further in Jordan’s favor when it comes to public opinion. According to ESPN’s poll, 73% of respondents now believe Jordan is the superior overall player.

We want to know what you think. Could the Bulls have won a seventh title if they’d brought back the 1998 team, or was it the right call for that version of the club to go out on top? Did The Last Dance change – or solidify – your stance in the Jordan/LeBron debate?

Outside of those topics, we want to know what you thought about the documentary in general. What were you favorite moments or episodes? Were you surprised by anything you learned over the course of those 10 episodes? Were you disappointed by details that may have been left out? Did you think the story of Jordan and the Bulls was well told?

And, of course, do you buy Jordan’s claim that he didn’t really push off Bryon Russell in Game 6 of the 1998 Finals?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts on The Last Dance!

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

May 15th, 2020 at 2:04pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

No team gave the 2019 champion Raptors a more competitive series than the Sixers, who were inches away from forcing overtime in Game 7 in Toronto last spring. That knowledge helped fuel lofty expectations in Philadelphia entering the 2019/20 season, with the 76ers widely considered part of the conference’s two-team top tier alongside Milwaukee.

An up-and-down season saw the Sixers fall short of those expectations — they were 39-26 and ranked just sixth in the East entering the NBA’s hiatus. However, there was still hope that they could make noise in the playoffs, and it’ll be fascinating to see if they get that chance. After all, decisions on Brett Brown‘s future and potential roster changes may hinge in large part on whether or not the club can make a deep postseason run.

Here’s where things stand for the Sixers financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

No matter where the cap lands for the 2020/21 season, the Sixers will have a tough time avoiding the luxury tax. A flat cap – with no increase – would result in a tax threshold of $132.6MM; the NBA’s $115MM cap projection called for a $139MM tax line. The 76ers already have more than $142MM in guaranteed money committed for nine players next season, and that number will only increase once the team fills out its roster.

Reducing team salary via a trade is a possibility, but there might not be many clubs looking to take on unwanted contracts this offseason. Philadelphia would have to trim a substantial amount of salary to gain access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,718,000 4
  • Trade exception: $1,882,867 (expires 2/8/21)

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. Simmons’ actual maximum salary will be 25% of the cap, unless he makes an All-NBA team, in which case it will be anywhere from 28-30% of the cap.
  2. Korkmaz’ new salary guarantee date is unknown.
  3. Pelle’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 22.
  4. This is a projected value.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: 2020’s Rookie Scale Extension Candidates

May 15th, 2020 at 11:41am CST by Luke Adams

Every year, former first-round picks who are entering the fourth and final season of their rookie scale contracts become eligible to sign rookie scale extensions, which allow their teams to lock them up for multiple seasons and avoid restricted free agency.

As we detailed on Wednesday, there are 24 players who will become eligible for rookie scale extensions this year, whenever the 2020/21 league year officially begins.

In recent years, as few as four players (2017) and as many as nine (2019) have signed offseason rookie scale extensions. However, given the unusual circumstances created by the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s extension period could look different than usual.

Based on the uncertainty about how the NBA’s lost revenue will affect the league’s salary cap going forward, players might be more reluctant to lock themselves into long-term contracts a year before reaching restricted free agency. Conversely, a team considering offering a player a long-term extension this year will have to weigh how financially advantageous it will be to wait until 2021 to make that offer — doing so could allow the team to take advantage of its player’s modest RFA cap hold and maximize cap room that may be at a premium.

Still, it’s a safe bet that at least a handful of teams will pursue rookie scale extensions this offseason. Completing those deals early helps a team maintain a good relationship with the player and his agent, and provides that team with long-term cost certainty on one of its rising young stars.

In 2020, the players who most obviously fit that bill are Jayson Tatum (Celtics), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz), Bam Adebayo (Heat), and De’Aaron Fox (Kings). It seems likely that Boston, Utah, Miami, and Sacramento will be eager to sign those players to extensions worth the maximum salary or something very close to it.

While those four players are the most obvious extension candidates, there’s no shortage of others. John Collins (Hawks) leads the second tier, having expressed that he believes he’s max-worthy as well. Jonathan Isaac (Magic) and Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) won’t get the max, but they look like players their teams will want to build around. OG Anunoby (Raptors) and Derrick White (Spurs) are probably keepers too, though it’s possible Toronto and San Antonio will wait a year to let the RFA market set their prices.

After that, we start to get into some more challenging cases. Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Kyle Kuzma (Lakers), and Zach Collins (Trail Blazers) could have cemented their cases for extensions this season, but Markkanen took a step back, Kuzma struggled to find his fit on the new-look Lakers, and Collins appeared in just three games before a shoulder injury derailed his season.

Luke Kennard (Pistons) would normally be a solid candidate for a new deal, but it’s not clear whether or not Detroit envisions him as a core piece or a potential trade candidate. The same goes for Jarrett Allen (Nets), who lost his starting center job before the NBA suspended its season.

We want to know what you think. Which of this year’s 24 extension-eligible players – perhaps including some of the ones we didn’t mention above – are the best bets for new deals this offseason? How do you think the NBA’s financial situation might impact those negotiations? Will we see fewer rookie scale extensions than usual or approximately the same amount?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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