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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

June 8th, 2024 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

For the second time in three years, the Sixers opened their season with a major trade request hanging over the team. Unlike in 2021/22, when the acrimonious Ben Simmons saga dragged out all the way to the February trade deadline, Daryl Morey was able to resolve James Harden‘s trade demand early in the fall, reaching an agreement during the second week of the regular season to send the former MVP to the Clippers in exchange for a package of role players and draft picks.

It’s highly unlikely that any of those future draft picks will ever turn into a player of Harden’s caliber, and none of the four veterans sent to Philadelphia in the swap figure to be long-term keepers. But with a disgruntled player on a pricey expiring deal, the 76ers didn’t have much leverage in trade talks and did well to acquire players who fit the roster in the short term and assets that could be flipped in future moves — one of the players Philadelphia received from L.A., Marcus Morris, was sent out at the trade deadline in a deal for Buddy Hield, for instance.

Perhaps even more important than the assets the Sixers got for Harden was the opportunity his exit created for fourth-year guard Tyrese Maxey. With Harden no longer in the picture, Maxey saw his usage rate increase to a career-high 28.0% and responded by posting new career bests in points (25.9), assists (6.2), and rebounds (3.7) per game, among other categories. His scoring efficiency took a hit, but his .450/.373/.868 shooting line was still just fine, and the 23-year-old was named the NBA’s Most Improved Player for his star turn.

Maxey already looked like a future building block in Philadelphia, but his 2023/24 performance proved he’s capable of being a legitimate No. 2 to former MVP Joel Embiid. The Sixers had a 29-7 record in the games those two played together and outscored opponents by +12.4 points per 100 possessions when they shared the court.

Unfortunately, Embiid’s injury issues flared up again, with a meniscus tear limiting him to 39 regular season games and reducing his mobility and effectiveness in the postseason. For the first time since 2020, the 76ers didn’t win a playoff series this spring, but that early postseason exit wasn’t cause for panic, since the front office had already anticipated making major roster changes during the offseason.

Having dumped P.J. Tucker‘s contract in the Harden trade, the Sixers will head into this summer with only one guaranteed contract (Embiid) on their cap for 2024/25 and Maxey poised to re-sign as a restricted free agent. Besides those two players, no one else who finished the season with Philadelphia is a lock to be back in the fall.

That’s a lot of uncertainty entering an offseason, which is a little scary, but the duo of Embiid and Maxey is a great place to start. So even if the Sixers miss out on their top target(s) and have to turn to Plan B or C, they’re well-positioned to take a step forward following a 47-35 season in ’23/24.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan

Taking into account Embiid’s salary, Maxey’s cap hold, the cap hold for the No. 16 overall pick, and rookie-minimum cap holds for nine empty roster spots, the Sixers could generate up to about $62MM in cap room. That figure, which would rely on renouncing all the team’s current free agents and waiving players on non-guaranteed salaries (including Paul Reed), could rise to nearly $65MM if Philadelphia also trades away its draft pick. The club will be able to go over the cap to re-sign Maxey to a maximum-salary contract after it uses up its room.

$65MM is a ton of cap space, but it would disappear quickly with a major move or two. The Sixers’ top target is reportedly Paul George, who can become an unrestricted free agent this summer if he doesn’t reach an extension agreement with the Clippers and turns down his 2024/25 player option. It’s unclear how viable a move to Philadelphia is for George – he may just be using the 76ers for leverage purposes to get the deal he wants in Los Angeles – but if they hope to lure him away from his hometown, the Sixers would have to offer the star forward a maximum-salary contract that would start at a projected $49.35MM.

Jimmy Butler has also frequently been cited as a prime target for Morey, though the former Sixer would need to be acquired via trade, which wouldn’t be easy — the Heat aren’t looking to rebuild, so if the 76ers offered a package heavy on draft assets and cap relief, Miami would have to be confident they could turn those assets into another impact player. If Philadelphia could find a way to pry Butler away from the Heat, it would mean accommodating his $48.8MM salary.

Landing a star like George or Butler would be a home run for the Sixers, since either player would be an ideal fit on the wing alongside Embiid and Maxey. But it would reduce Philadelphia’s remaining cap room to approximately $13-17MM, putting the team in position to realistically make just two or three more signings above the minimum — one or two using that remaining cap room, and another one using the $8MM room exception.

The result would be an awfully top-heavy roster, similar to the one the Suns had this past season. You could certainly make the case that Maxey, George (or Butler), and Embiid would fit together better than Phoenix’s three stars do. However, there would be a lot of pressure on Philadelphia’s stars to stay healthy, which Embiid hasn’t been able to do in the past — neither George nor Butler has the best track record on that front either.

If the Sixers don’t land a star using their cap room – Brandon Ingram and OG Anunoby have been mentioned as other possible targets who wouldn’t be quite as highly paid in 2024/25 as George or Butler – the expectation is that they’ll focus on signing useful role players to lucrative short-term contracts, similar to the one Bruce Brown got from Indiana last summer.

With several teams chasing Brown using the full mid-level exception (starting at $12.4MM), the Pacers took advantage of their cap room to give him a two-year deal that started at $22MM and included a second-year team option worth $23MM. It made Brown an ideal trade chip when the club needed a salary-matching piece for Pascal Siakam a few months later. And if that trade opportunity hadn’t arisen, Indiana would have had the option of clearing Brown’s salary off the books after just one year, regaining cap flexibility.

If Philadelphia takes a similar route, free agents like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Klay Thompson, and Malik Monk look like a few of the most logical targets. The Nuggets and Warriors would have luxury-tax and apron concerns if they have to match a big starting salary for Caldwell-Pope or Thompson, respectively, while the Kings are limited to offering Monk a starting salary in the $17.4MM range since they only hold his Early Bird rights.

A tier or two below those guys, Caleb Martin, Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, Reggie Jackson, Precious Achiuwa, and Malik Beasley are among the other free agents whose current teams may face financial restrictions due to their proximity to the tax (or, in Beasley’s case, a lack of Bird rights). If he hadn’t already had a brief stint in Philadelphia, I’d view center Andre Drummond as another ideal target for the Sixers, since he could back up Embiid and slide into the starting five if and when the star center is unavailable. I still think he makes a lot of sense.

While going this direction could be a more prudent path than spending nearly $50MM on a single player entering his mid-30s, it might cost upwards of $50MM in 2024/25 to land a pair of those top-tier Plan B targets (KCP, Thompson, and Monk), so the Sixers’ cap room could disappear almost as quickly.

No matter what direction Philadelphia goes with its cap space, it will be crucial for the team to nail its minimum-salary signings once its room dries up. That was one of the Suns’ issues this past season — they signed eight players to minimum-salary contracts last summer, but fewer than half of them earned regular minutes. The Sixers will aim to do better with the back half of their roster.

Of the players who finished this past season in Philadelphia, Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and Cameron Payne are among the useful role players who might be willing to return for the veteran’s minimum (though I think some of them could do better than that on the open market). There will be other options around the league as well, especially if the Sixers can offer them a shot at regular minutes and a chance to contend.

Tobias Harris, Hield, and De’Anthony Melton aren’t minimum-salary players, so if the Sixers want to bring any of them back, it would cut into their cap room. Harris and Hield seem unlikely to return though, meaning Melton is the only one Philadelphia might have to account for.

The versatile defensive-minded guard made $8MM last season and would be a great re-addition at that price again using the room exception. If he’d finished the season healthy, Melton would definitely have stronger offers than that, but given the back issues that limited him to six games after January 12, that’s no longer a sure thing, which could work in Philadelphia’s favor.

I don’t mind the idea of the 76ers keeping the No. 16 overall pick, since it would give them an opportunity to get a team-friendly four-year contract on their books, but there are scenarios in which I think a trade makes more sense. One of my favorite concepts is a potential deal with the Wizards – who are said to be seeking another first-round pick – for Corey Kispert, a sharpshooter who was drafted by the previous front office in Washington and is in line for a rookie scale extension this offseason.

To be clear, I have no insider information suggesting the Sixers and Wizards are exploring such a trade, and it’s possible Philadelphia would have to sweeten the pot beyond offering a mid-first-rounder in a weak draft. But a trade target like Kispert would make perfect sense, since he’d take up only a small fraction of the team’s cap room this summer (he’s owed $5.7MM in 2024/25, not much more than the $4MM cap hold for the No. 16 pick) and then would get a raise in a year, when the 76ers would be in position to pay him.

With so many options available to them this offseason, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the Sixers’ offseason will play out. But that unpredictability is what will make them one of the most fun clubs to follow in the next month or two, with the pressure on Morey to get Embiid (who turned 30 in March) the supporting cast he needs to vie for his first championship.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Jeff Dowtin ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
    • Dowtin’s salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $2,196,970

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 16 overall pick ($4,032,240 cap hold)
  • No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $4,032,240

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Sixers project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce six trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $6,831,413) in order to use cap room.

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

June 7th, 2024 at 9:24pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings were one of the NBA’s feel-good stories of the 2022/23 season. First-year head coach Mike Brown led Sacramento to its best record (48-34) since 2005 and its first playoff berth since 2006, with no team scoring more points per 100 possessions (118.6) than the Kings.

In many ways, the sequel in 2023/24 was a worthy follow-up — despite dealing with injuries to a couple key role players down the stretch, the Kings won 46 games, registering consecutive seasons above .500 for the first time in nearly two decades.

But the vibes weren’t quite as good in Sacramento for a few reasons. For one, while Brown surely appreciated the improvements on defense (the Kings went from 24th in ’22/23 to 14th this past season), the No. 1 offense took a major step back (to 13th) and wasn’t the crowd-pleasing, well-oiled machine it was a year earlier.

More importantly, with the postseason drought over, the expectations were higher in Sacramento, where the goal was to take another step forward and perhaps win a playoff series. Instead, the Kings found themselves fighting for their postseason life in a more competitive Western Conference.

A year after their 48 wins comfortably earned them the No. 3 seed, the Kings claimed the No. 9 spot in the West despite winning only two fewer regular season games. They got some level of revenge against the Warriors – who eliminated them in the first round in 2023 – in the 9 vs. 10 play-in game, but fell to the Pelicans in the play-in game to determine the conference’s No. 8 seed, bringing their season to an end before the playoffs tipped off in earnest.

A team’s improvement isn’t always linear, so the slight downturn this season doesn’t mean this version of the Kings can’t continue to get better in 2024/25. With no dominant franchises far ahead of the pack in the West, the front office may not have to make major changes to the roster to become a legitimate contender. Still, Monte McNair and his basketball operations team figure to do all they can this summer to figure out how to upgrade the current group with somewhat limited resources.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan

The Kings took care of one of the most important items on their offseason to-do list a week ago, reaching an agreement on a multiyear extension for Brown. The veteran coach signed a four-year contract with the franchise when he was hired in 2022, but the final year was a mutual option, so he would’ve essentially been on an expiring deal in 2024/25 if negotiations between the two sides had reached an impasse, which briefly looked like it might happen last month.

Brown’s has yet to win a championship as a head coach, but his playoff résumé is still relatively strong, which bodes well for Sacramento going forward — he has a winning overall record (50-40) in the postseason and advanced beyond the first round for six straight seasons with the Cavaliers and Lakers. He’s also respected throughout the league, is one year removed from earning Coach of the Year honors, and is the best coach the Kings have had in quite some time.

Given the rising cost of coaching salaries around the NBA, Sacramento did well to secure Brown to a three-year deal with a base value of $8.5MM per year (it can be worth up to $10MM annually with incentives). If things go south in the next year or two, the Kings aren’t on the hook for Brown long-term, and if things go well, they can be more confident about offering him an eight-figure salary commensurate with what some of his more accomplished colleagues around the NBA have received in the last year or two.

With Brown locked up, the focus in the coming weeks will be on the roster, where the biggest question is what will happen with free agent wing Malik Monk. The Sixth Man of the Year runner-up in 2024, Monk has been one of the Kings’ most important rotation players in the past couple years, evolving into more than just a shooter. His 3.9 assists per game in 2022/23 were a career high, which he promptly eclipsed by bumping that number to 5.1 APG in ’23/24.

The challenge when it comes to re-signing Monk is twofold. For one, Sacramento only holds the 26-year-old’s Early Bird rights, which means the team can offer up to a 75% raise on his previous $9.95MM salary (with 8% annual raises in subsequent years). That works out to about $17.4MM in year one and just shy of $78MM in total over four years. That would be a strong offer, but it’s possible a team with cap room and a need for shooting (Detroit? Orlando?) would top it.

In comments to reporters after the season, Monk suggested he wouldn’t necessarily just accept the biggest offer he gets, but if another suitor gives him more money than the Kings can put on the table and offers him a starting role, it could be hard to turn it down.

Even if we assume the Kings are able to re-sign Monk with an Early Bird offer, giving him a sizable salary bump would put the club in danger of surpassing the luxury tax line. Taking into account Keon Ellis‘ non-guaranteed salary and the cap hold for the No. 13 pick, Sacramento has about $155MM on the books for 12 players. Adding a $17.4MM salary for Monk would push that total above the projected luxury tax line ($171.3MM) with at least one more roster spot to be filled.

Letting the veteran shooting guard walk – or losing him to a higher bidder – would create enough breathing room below the tax line for Sacramento use its entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.9MM) on a replacement, but it would be unrealistic to expect the MLE to yield a player whose impact would match or exceed Monk’s. I expect the Kings to push to re-sign him and then address the tax issue later if necessary — it probably wouldn’t be too challenging to shed a contract or two to duck the tax if that’s what team ownership wants.

Of course, if Monk returns, the Kings’ roster in 2024/25 could look quite similar to the one we saw this past season. The team wouldn’t be able to do much in free agency after re-signing Monk and could end up just adding a new prospect with the No. 13 pick, salary-dumping a modest contract (maybe Sasha Vezenkov and his $6.66MM cap hit), and perhaps swapping out a couple back-of-the-roster minimum-salary players.

While that wouldn’t inspire a ton of excitement heading into the fall, it wouldn’t be a total disaster. Sacramento has high hopes for 2022’s No. 4 overall pick Keegan Murray, a big 23-year-old wing who increased his scoring average to 15.2 PPG in 2023/24 and has made 38.4% of his three-pointers since entering the league two years ago. Murray made improvements on the defensive end in his sophomore season and is the sort of breakout candidate who could legitimately raise the Kings’ ceiling if he continues to develop into a two-way star.

Turning to the trade market would be another option for the Kings, who probably wouldn’t mind upgrading their other forward spot, currently manned primarily by Harrison Barnes and Trey Lyles. Sacramento was viewed as a possible Pascal Siakam suitor before he was traded to the Pacers, but putting together a package for that caliber of player without including Murray isn’t simple.

The Kings’ other recent lottery pick, Davion Mitchell (No. 9 in 2021), is a solid defender, but he fell below a two-way player (Ellis) on the backcourt depth chart at times and doesn’t have nearly the trade value that Murray would. A trade package built around Mitchell and either Barnes or Kevin Huerter and future first-round picks would have some appeal, but could probably be outbid by other would-be contenders seeking a star.

It’s also worth noting that, after finishing in the lottery this year, the Kings still owe a 2025 first-round pick to Atlanta, meaning the earliest first-rounder they can trade (outside of this year’s No. 13 pick) would be in 2027 — and it could be pushed back by a year if Sacramento’s 2025 first-round selection lands in the top 12 and is protected again.

Rather than taking a huge swing on the trade market, perhaps the Kings will gauge the value of a package headlined by Huerter and a future first-rounder (or this year’s No. 13). Huerter is a talented outside shooter, but he’s coming off shoulder surgery and his limitations on defense prompted Brown to experiment with starting Chris Duarte in his place in January.

Barnes’ underrated two-way contributions have arguably been more meaningful than Huerter’s, so the veteran forward should only end up on the trade block if a clear upgrade at his position is available. Huerter looks to me like the more expendable salary-matching piece, especially since the Kings have a good deal of shooting elsewhere on the roster. Sacramento could also potentially add another outside threat with the No. 13 pick in the draft, though the club could go in any number of directions with that lottery selection and should probably just be targeting the best player available if the pick isn’t traded.

We’ve made it this far without mentioning the Kings’ two stars – Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox – but their contract situations are relatively stable and they won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. That’s especially true of Sabonis, who signed a new deal last summer and will be under team control for four more seasons.

Fox has two years left on his current pact and will be extension-eligible this offseason. The star guard may want to see if he can gain super-max eligibility by making an All-NBA team next spring, lining himself up for a maximum salary worth up to 35% of the cap instead of 30%. So if he and the Kings pass on an extension this offseason, there will be no reason for concern — if they still can’t come to terms in 2025, that could spell trouble, but there’s no indication at this point that we’re headed down that path.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall pick ($4,702,800 cap hold)
  • No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $4,702,800

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Chris Duarte (rookie scale)
  • De’Aaron Fox (veteran)
  • Kevin Huerter (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Davion Mitchell (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Kings project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

June 6th, 2024 at 10:02pm CST by Luke Adams

No NBA team has spent more money during the past two seasons on player salaries and luxury tax payments than the Warriors. The return on those hundreds of millions of dollars committed by ownership? A 90-74 regular season record, a single playoff series win in 2023, and a one-and-done play-in appearance in 2024.

Of course, the Warriors still have many of the same pieces on the current roster that they did on the version that won a championship in 2022. But the club’s longtime core stars are all in their mid-30s and need more help from the supporting cast than they once did.

Following a disappointing finish to the 2023/24 season, Golden State ownership and management will need to make a crucial decision this summer.

Is it worth maximizing the years the Warriors have left with all-time great Stephen Curry by continuing to pour massive amounts of money into player payroll and remaining in championship-or-bust mode? Or is the time right to take a step back by shedding some salary, ducking below the tax aprons, and gaining access to more roster-building tools, even if it means sacrificing a couple assets and perhaps ending an important longtime relationship along the way?

Cutting costs doesn’t necessarily mean the Warriors can’t be a contender in 2024/25 and beyond, but one or two missteps in that process could put the team at risk of wasting Curry’s remaining high-level years. It will be a tricky tightrope to walk for general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr., who is in just his second year as Golden State’s head of basketball operations.

The Warriors’ Offseason Plan

If money continues to be no object for the Warriors, re-signing veteran sharpshooter Klay Thompson, who will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, should be atop their to-do list. The two sides have expressed mutual interest in continuing their relationship, which began when Golden State drafted Thompson 11th overall back in 2011. But Thompson reportedly turned down a two-year, $48MM extension prior to the season and seems intent on testing the open market to get a sense of his options.

The Warriors are in a difficult spot with Thompson. He’s not the same player he was in his best years, as ACL and Achilles tears in 2019 and 2020 sapped him of some athleticism and slowed down his lateral movement on defense. But he’s still one of the NBA’s best shooters (38.7% on 9.0 attempts per game in 2023/24) and will likely draw significant interest from young teams with cap room that covet both his floor-spacing ability and his championship experience.

As Anthony Slater of The Athletic recently noted, clubs like the Thunder, Magic, and Sixers could make life difficult for Golden State by putting lucrative short-term offers on the table for the 34-year-old, forcing the Warriors to go a little higher than they’d be comfortable with in order to retain him.

Letting Thompson go would significantly reduce the payroll, but it wouldn’t allow the Warriors to sign an equivalent replacement (ie. a player making well above the mid-level exception), since they still wouldn’t be in position to open up cap room.

If the Dubs intend to take the aggressive, win-at-any-cost route, it could also mean using Chris Paul‘s $30MM expiring contract as a trade chip for an impact player who is more firmly in his prime. The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement no longer allows an over-the-cap team to trade a $30MM non-guaranteed salary for a $30MM guaranteed salary, since only the guaranteed portion counts for matching purposes. But Golden State could be somewhat flexible on the trade market with Paul — for instance, if the team targets a player making $20MM, it could just guarantee $20MM of CP3’s salary rather than having to guarantee the full amount.

Paul won’t have much value on his own, so attaching draft assets and/or young prospects would be necessary to build an appealing package. The Warriors could theoretically offer up to three future first-round picks despite having sent their 2030 first-rounder to Washington last offseason — that pick includes top-20 protection, so Golden State could trade it a second time if its new trade partner is willing to accept 21-30 protection (that team, in other words, would acquire it if it lands in the 1-20 range).

In terms of prospects, Moses Moody may be the most expendable of Golden State’s young players, given that he’s entering his fourth season and has yet to establish himself as a consistent rotation piece. Trade partners would likely have more interest in Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis, both of whom are under very affordable team control for three more seasons, and especially Jonathan Kuminga, who has the most star potential of the quartet.

I don’t love this high-spending, win-now path for the Warriors though, particularly since there’s no obvious star trade candidate who would turn the club into a title favorite. Going that route would almost certainly mean operating over the second tax apron, which would impose several severe roster-building limitations, including an inability to aggregate salaries in trades or to sign free agents to more than minimum-salary contracts. Co-owner Joe Lacob has talked about ideally wanting to avoid being in that territory going forward.

So let’s consider the alternative.

Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kuminga, Moody, Podziemski, and Jackson-Davis are owed a combined $125MM in guaranteed money. Adding Kevon Looney ($8MM) and Gary Payton II ($9.13MM) would bump that figure to $142MM+, but Looney’s salary is only guaranteed for $3MM, while Payton holds a player option.

Let’s say Looney, who played a pretty limited role last season, is waived and re-signs for the minimum. And let’s assume that Payton, who spoke in April about possibly “redoing” his contract, is willing to accept a pay cut in 2024/25 (to, say, $6MM) if he gets another guaranteed year or two tacked onto a new deal.

Now we’re at $136MM for nine players, with a projected luxury tax line around $171MM. With at least five more players needed to fill out the roster, that admittedly doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room to get a new deal for Thompson under the tax threshold, unless he’s willing to accept a relatively team-friendly rate (perhaps at or below the team’s previous extension offer). But with the first apron projected for about $179MM, the Warriors could bring back Thompson, waive Paul rather than trying to trade him, and have the ability to comfortably fill their remaining roster spots without surpassing either apron.

Even with the repeater tax rate applied to them, the Warriors’ tax bill would be fairly modest if they’re just a few million dollars above the tax line. And by operating under the aprons, Golden State could use some of the mid-level exception to pursue a rotation player and would be able to explore the trade market (perhaps dangling Wiggins?) without having to worry about not being able to aggregate salaries or take back more salary than they’re sending out.

If Thompson walks, the Warriors could offer a more significant role to Moody and would have additional flexibility on the trade market with Paul’s expiring deal, which would be a stronger matching piece as long as the team’s salary remains below the aprons.

While apron teams can’t take back more than 100% of their outgoing guaranteed salary in a trade, the salary-matching rules for non-apron teams are far more lenient. To acquire that aforementioned hypothetical $20MM target, Golden State would only have to guarantee Paul’s salary for $13.5MM (instead of $20MM as an apron team), increasing his value to any trade partner that intends to simply waive him.

It’s hard to envision a scenario in which either Curry or Green isn’t a Warrior next season, but there are no other players on the roster whom I view as locks to still be in Golden State by opening night. There are simply too many permutations for how this offseason could play out, with Thompson’s free agency and the handling of Paul’s expiring contract acting as the fulcrums that will dictate how the rest of the summer goes.

If Kuminga remains with the club – and I think he should – figuring out whether or not to extend him this offseason will represent another major decision for Warriors management. The third-year forward broke out in a big way beginning in the middle of the 2023/24 season after he saw inconsistent minutes during his first two-plus years in the NBA. He’s not a maximum-salary player yet, but Kuminga has probably earned a $100MM+ payday. It remains to be seen whether that payday will come from Golden State and whether it will happen this year.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Chris Paul ($30,000,000)
    • Paul’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 28.
  • Kevon Looney ($5,000,000)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Looney’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 24.
  • Gui Santos ($1,891,857)
  • Pat Spencer (two-way)
  • Total: $36,891,857

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Robinson will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

  • No. 52 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Stephen Curry (veteran)
  • Jonathan Kuminga (rookie scale)
  • Kevon Looney (veteran)
  • Moses Moody (rookie scale)
  • Chris Paul (veteran)
  • Gary Payton II (veteran)
    • Player option must be exercised.
  • Klay Thompson (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Warriors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Warriors project to operate over the cap. Their proximity to the tax aprons will be determined largely by their decisions with Thompson and Paul. If the Warriors operate above the first tax apron, they will lose access to all of the exceptions noted below and would instead be able to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000). If they operate above both tax aprons, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions, including the taxpayer MLE.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $2,337,720
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $2,019,706
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

June 5th, 2024 at 3:14pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning no more than 22 games for three consecutive seasons, the Rockets entered last summer armed with a ton of cap room and a determination to move out of their rebuilding phrase and toward legitimate contention. After hiring Ime Udoka as their new head coach, they focused on veteran free agents who could make an impact on both ends of the court, missing out on Brook Lopez but landing Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.

The Rockets’ offseason moves were a success. VanVleet, Brooks, and Udoka were culture-setters in Houston, imposing their personalities on a team that played with a hard-nosed edge. The young core took a major step forward, as Alperen Sengun enjoying a breakout year, Jalen Green finished the season strong, Jabari Smith made significant strides in his second season, and Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore showed real promise as rookies.

While the Rockets still fell short of the postseason, they finished with a 41-41 record in a competitive Western Conference, nearly doubling their win total after posting a 22-60 mark in 2022/23.

The roster will start to get more expensive once the players on rookie contracts graduate to their second deals, but the front office has done a nice job staggering its financial commitments (VanVleet’s guaranteed money expires in 2025 at the same time Green’s and Sengun’s next deals would begin) and has an excess of future first-round picks despite not controlling its own 2024 and 2026 first-rounders. Houston’s youngsters have room to keep improving, and the team has the cap and roster flexibility to continue pursuing upgrades.

This version of the Rockets doesn’t yet have the same high ceiling that the James Harden-led teams of the late-2010s did, but there’s reason for genuine optimism in Houston again after a rough couple years following the trade that sent Harden to Brooklyn.

The Rockets’ Offseason Plan

After carrying more than $60MM in cap room into the 2023 offseason, the Rockets don’t project to be under the cap this summer. They have nearly $122MM in guaranteed money on the books, plus a $10MM cap hold for their lottery pick, leaving no meaningful room below the projected cap of $141MM even if they purge the roster of non-guaranteed salary, team options, and cap holds for free agents.

Houston does have some interesting decisions to make though, starting with whether or not to retain Jeff Green ($8MM team option), Jock Landale ($8MM non-guaranteed salary), and Jae’Sean Tate ($7.6MM team option).

It’s hard to make a convincing case that any of Green, Landale, or Tate would match or exceed their current 2024/25 salaries if they were waived and then signed new contracts. But it won’t be all that surprising if the Rockets bring back at least two – and perhaps all three – of those players for one important reason: their mid-sized cap hits and lack of guaranteed money beyond ’24/25 would make them logical trade chips in a deal for an impact player.

With no cap room available, the Rockets aren’t in position to take on a significant salary outright, and they don’t have many obviously expendable guaranteed contracts on their books. Only six Houston players are earning more than $5.5MM next season: VanVleet, Brooks, Steven Adams, Green, Smith, and Thompson.

I can’t see VanVleet and Brooks going anywhere after the positive impact they had in their first year as Rockets; Houston will want to see what it has in Adams after acquiring an injured version of him at February’s trade deadline; and while perhaps one of those younger players could be included in a package for a star, none are earning more than $12.5MM, so their salary-matching potential is limited.

In other words, the combined $23.6MM that Green, Landale, and Tate would be owed in 2024/25 could come in handy as flotsam in a trade, even if none of those players are major contributors on the court. Guaranteeing all three contracts would increase the Rockets’ team salary to about $154MM for 13 players, giving the club plenty of breathing room below the projected luxury tax line of $171MM. The club would still have enough flexibility to go shopping for one more complementary role player using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (it will be worth about $12.9MM).

The trade target most frequently connected to the Rockets has been Nets forward Mikal Bridges, who makes sense for a variety of reasons. For one, he’s the sort of two-way contributor Houston has prioritized under Udoka. Bridges’ scoring efficiency and perimeter defense took a step back this past season, but that’s likely because he was asked to be the No. 1 offensive option in Brooklyn. If he were a Rocket, he’d be leaned on more for his three-and-D prowess than his scoring, allowing him to take better shots on offense and preserve his energy for tough defensive assignments.

One crucial reason Bridges would be such a logical trade target is the fact that the Rockets control the Nets’ first-round draft picks for several years, starting with the No. 3 overall pick in 2024. Houston also owns Brooklyn’s unprotected 2026 first-rounder and has swap rights in 2025 and 2027.

Bridges’ $23.3MM cap hit would be easy to match with expiring contracts and perhaps a prospect or two, and the Rockets could offer the Nets control of their first-round picks back (along with other draft assets), putting Brooklyn in a far better position to retool. However, to date, the Nets have resisted the idea of trading Bridges, reportedly expressing a preference to build around him.

If the Rockets have no luck in their pursuit of Bridges, they could pivot to other targets with similar skill sets. Paul George and OG Anunoby would make a lot of sense on Houston’s roster, but both will be free agents and are unlikely to choose Houston over strong alternatives in Los Angeles, New York, and/or Philadelphia. Brandon Ingram is expected to be available via trade, though he’s not the kind of defensive stopper the Rockets would ideally want.

The most intriguing non-Bridges trade candidate for Houston’s purposes might be Jerami Grant. The Trail Blazers have shown little interest in moving him so far, but given how far away they are from contention, they’d be wise to listen to offers — and the Rockets could make a good one. Bruce Brown and Dorian Finney-Smith are among the lower-level trade candidates who could be fits in Houston.

The Rockets can afford to be patient if no good opportunities arise on the trade market this summer, circling back to consider their options at the 2025 trade deadline. By that time, they may get a better idea of what they have in Tari Eason, a 23-year-old wing whose career got off to a promising start before his sophomore season ended after just 22 games due to left leg surgery. It’s impossible to predict what sort of trajectory Eason’s career might follow coming off a major injury and based on such a small sample, but his three-and-D upside is real. In a best-case scenario, he develops into exactly the kind of player the Rockets are currently eyeing on the trade market.

Houston also has an opportunity to land a future impact player using the No. 3 overall pick, assuming it’s not included in a trade. As we’ve noted repeatedly, this year’s draft class is considered weak, but the Rockets don’t need to land a franchise player with that pick — turning it into another above-average rotation player would be a success. Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard would be an intriguing option for a Rockets team in need of shooting. Houston finished 23rd in the NBA last season with a 35.2% conversion rate on three-pointers, while Sheppard knocked down an incredible 52.1% in his freshman year.

Whether or not the Rockets add shooting in the draft or via trade, they’ll be in position to do so on the free agent market using the MLE. Caleb Martin, Derrick Jones, Naji Marshall, and Isaac Okoro are among the potential three-and-D free agent wings in the mid-level range to keep an eye on for Houston.

Finally, while the Rockets can wait a year on this front if they need to, it’s worth noting that Sengun and Green will both be eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason. Neither situation is clear-cut. Sengun had an awesome third year, but Houston played some of its best basketball down the stretch without him, and the team hasn’t yet gotten a chance to see how effective he can be alongside a more traditional starting center like Adams.

As for Green, he was terrific during the season’s final few weeks, but was that enough for the Rockets to feel comfortable making a massive financial commitment to him? Before closing out the year by averaging 24.5 points and 4.0 assists per game on .454/.373/.808 shooting in his final 24 games, Green had put up 17.6 PPG and 3.4 APG on .406/.308/.802 shooting in his first 58 contests.

Unless they can get him to agree to a relatively team-friendly rate well below the max, the Rockets may want to see a little more from Green in terms of scoring efficiency and defense. Both he and Sengun would be restricted free agents in 2025 if they don’t sign extensions this offseason.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jock Landale ($8,000,000)
    • Landale’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 29.
  • Total: $8,000,000

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Jeff Green ($8,000,000): Non-Bird rights
    • Green’s salary would remain non-guaranteed until July 11 if his option is exercised.
  • Jae’Sean Tate ($7,565,217): Bird rights
    • Tate’s cap hit includes a $7,065,217 base salary and $500,000 in likely incentives.
  • Total: $15,565,217

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 3 overall pick ($10,128,480 cap hold)
  • No. 44 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $10,128,480

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Steven Adams (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Jalen Green (rookie scale)
  • Alperen Sengun (rookie scale)
  • Jae’Sean Tate (veteran)
    • Team option must be exercised.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Rockets project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $4,510,000
    • Expires on October 17.
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Hoops Rumors Glossary: July Moratorium

June 5th, 2024 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

NBA free agents come off the board in rapid succession as soon as the league-wide negotiating period opens on June 30 at 6:00 pm Eastern time. However, most of those deals can’t become official right away, due to what’s known in the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement as the “moratorium period.” We know it colloquially as the July moratorium.

The July moratorium – which lasts from 12:01 am Eastern time on July 1 until 12:00 pm on July 6 – essentially puts a freeze on most transactions for several days at the start of the new league year. NBA free agents are allowed to negotiate with clubs during the moratorium, and they can agree to terms on new contracts, but they are unable to officially sign new deals until the moratorium ends. The same goes for trades — two teams can agree to terms on a deal, but can’t formally put it through until at least July 6.

While nearly every agreement reached during the July moratorium eventually gets finalized, the unofficial nature of those initial deals can occasionally wreak havoc on the league’s free agent market.

DeAndre Jordan‘s 2015 free agency isn’t the only example of this, but it’s certainly the most memorable one from the last decade. Jordan initially agreed to terms with the Mavericks during the July moratorium, but before the moratorium ended and the two sides could make it official, the Clippers changed Jordan’s mind and convinced him to re-sign with L.A.

Because Jordan and the Mavs had only reached an informal verbal agreement, there was nothing Dallas could do to stop him from reversing course during the moratorium. Still, this sort of about-face is rare, as it can result in fractured relationships between players, agents, and teams.

While most NBA transactions can’t be completed during the moratorium, there are several exceptions to that rule. The following moves are permitted between July 1 and July 6:

  • A team can sign a first-round draft pick to his rookie scale contract.
  • A team can sign a second-round draft pick using the second-round pick exception.
  • A team can sign a player to a one- or two-year minimum-salary contract.
  • A restricted free agent can sign a qualifying offer from his current team.
  • A restricted free agent can sign a five-year, fully guaranteed maximum-salary contract with his current team.
  • A restricted free agent can sign an offer sheet with a new team; the one-day matching period would begin once the moratorium ends.
  • A team can sign a player to a two-way contract, convert a two-way contract into a standard NBA deal, or convert an Exhibit 10 deal into a two-way contract.
  • A team can waive a player or claim a player off waivers.
  • A team can exercise its third- or fourth-year team option on a rookie scale contract.
  • A second-round pick can accept a required tender (a one-year contract offer) from his team.

Under older Collective Bargaining Agreements, the NBA finalized the salary cap at some point during the July moratorium, and the new cap would take effect once the moratorium ended. However, the current CBA calls for the salary cap for the new league year to be set before the start of July, with the new figure going into effect immediately on July 1. This gives teams more clarity on exactly how much room they have available as they negotiate with free agents during the moratorium.

Several years ago, the NBA moved the start of its free agency negotiating period forward by six hours, opening that window at 6:00 pm ET on June 30 instead of at 12:01 am ET on July 1. Although the July moratorium doesn’t technically begin until July 1, free agents who reach agreements quickly can’t officially sign on June 30, since their old contracts haven’t technically expired yet. That rule will also apply this year to free agents who reach agreements with their own teams during the exclusive negotiating period between the end of the NBA Finals and June 30.

However, if an extension-eligible veteran agrees to a new deal with his current team, he can officially complete that extension during that six-hour period on June 30, before the moratorium goes into effect — Thaddeus Young (Raptors) and Gary Harris (Magic) took this route in 2022, formally finalizing their new contracts as extensions on the evening of June 30 before the moratorium period began.

Finally, it’s worth noting that while we refer to this period at the start of free agency as the “July” moratorium, it doesn’t always take place in July. For instance, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the moratorium period instead occurred in November in 2020 and in August in 2021.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years.

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Poll: Who Will Win 2024 NBA Finals?

June 5th, 2024 at 10:15am CST by Luke Adams

Based on what we’ve seen to this point in the 2023/24 NBA season, we have little reason to view the Celtics as anything but strong favorites entering the NBA Finals. Betting website BetOnline.ag agrees, listing them at -220 to win the series.

Boston finished the regular season with a 64-18 record, seven games ahead of any other team in the NBA, 14 games ahead of any other Eastern Conference team, and 14 games ahead of the Mavericks.

Only 21 teams in NBA history have won more games in a single regular season than the Celtics did this year, and 15 of those clubs won championships.

Only two teams in league history have had a higher regular season net rating (+11.7) than the Celtics did in 2023/24, and both of those teams (the 1996 and 1997 Bulls) won titles.

None of this year’s playoff teams has a better postseason record (12-2) or net rating (+10.8) than the Celtics. By comparison, the Mavericks are at 12-5 and +4.1.

So what’s the case against the Celtics? Well, there are a few factors to consider with Game 1 set to tip off on Thursday.

For one, will the Celtics have a healthy Kristaps Porzingis? The big man intends to suit up on Thursday, barring a setback, but he admitted to reporters on Tuesday that he’s not sure whether he’s 100% after being sidelined for approximately five weeks due to a calf strain that forced him to miss two full rounds of the playoffs.

If Porzingis is unavailable or unable to perform at his usual level, it would reduce the Celtics’ offensive options and limit their ability to protect the rim on defense. The Mavericks have thrived this postseason in part by letting centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively hang out near the basket to defend the paint, allowing rival big men to let it fly from beyond the arc. That would be a more difficult strategy to deploy vs. Boston if Porzingis (who made 37.5% of 5.1 threes per game this season) is back in form.

The more difficult path the Mavericks traveled to reach the NBA Finals may be another point in their favor. None of the teams the Celtics defeated en route to the Finals had a top-10 record or a top-nine net rating during the regular season, and all three were missing their best players for part or all of the series vs. Boston (Jimmy Butler for Miami, Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland, and Tyrese Haliburton for Indiana).

Dallas, on the other hand, ran through three of the Western Conference’s top four seeds, knocking off a Clippers team that ranked seventh in net rating during the regular season before going on to upset the Thunder (No. 2 in net rating) and Timberwolves (No. 3). The Mavs weren’t supposed to make it this far, which means they’re essentially playing with house money at this point, whereas the Celtics – following a series of playoff letdowns in recent years – are in championship-or-bust mode and may be feeling more pressure.

Finally, while the Celtics had the strongest, most well-rounded starting lineup of any NBA team this season, the Mavericks showed in the Western Conference finals vs. Minnesota that if their stars – Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving – are the best players on the court, they can get enough from their role players to beat a team with a more talented supporting cast. Boston will have plenty of talented defenders to throw at Doncic and Irving, including Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, but if the Mavs’ star guards can outplay Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they’ll have a chance.

We want to know what you think. Are there enough compelling reasons to believe the Mavericks can pull off the upset and become the NBA’s 2024 champions, or will Boston cap off a dominant season by winning its record-setting 18th title?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

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Community Shootaround: Pistons’ Offseason

June 3rd, 2024 at 8:21pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Trajan Langdon, the Pistons‘ new president of basketball operations, has an enormous task ahead of him.

The Pistons were supposed to turn the corner this season and show marked improvement. Instead, they smashed into a brick wall, setting a single-season record for most consecutive losses and finishing with the league’s worst record. Adding to their misery, they dropped from the top spot to No. 5 in the draft lottery.

Troy Weaver’s four-year regime as general manager was a disaster. The Pistons won the lottery in 2021 and drafted Cade Cunningham, the only player on the roster with All-Star potential. Otherwise, his personnel moves only made a bad situation worse.

Langdon has been tasked with building a roster around Cunningham to maximize his talents. That means some serious evaluations of other recent first-round picks – Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart and Marcus Sasser – on the roster. All of those players have shown talent to some degree but none are surefire starters on a quality team.

Langdon also has some decisions to make regarding restricted free agent Simone Fontecchio and Quentin Grimes, who is extension-eligible as he enters a contract year. It’s generally assumed the club will retain Fontecchio, who provided much-needed outside shooting after he was acquired from Utah, as long he doesn’t receive an overly generous offer sheet. Grimes, who barely played after being acquired from the Knicks due to injuries, is a bigger question mark.

The good news is the Pistons will have plenty of cap room – projected around $60MM – to spend on free agents and facilitate trades. The fact they still owe the Knicks a first-round pick hampers their ability to include draft assets in deals.

Another obvious issue is coach Monty Williams, who still has five years left on his contract. Langdon apparently has the leeway to hire another coach, but owner Tom Gores might not want to eat that much money unless Langdon has someone specific in mind who can turn things around quickly.

And that’s what makes the new president’s job even more difficult. The organization and its fans are tired of losing and don’t want to go through another long rebuilding process to see some positive results. Yet he inherits a roster that looked overmatched against its opponents on a regular basis.

That brings us to our topic of the day: What kind of moves should Langdon make this offseason to turn around the team’s fortunes? What type of players should he target in free agency and trades and which young players on his roster should he be willing to deal? Should he retain Williams or look for another coach?

Please take to the comments section to weigh on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Community Shootaround: Lakers’ Offseason

June 2nd, 2024 at 8:54pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Lakers always make some big headlines in the offseason and this summer will be no different.

They’ve already been in the news since the end of their regular season, firing Darvin Ham after just two seasons as their head coach. J.J. Redick and James Borrego are reportedly viewed as the frontrunners for the job.

What they do with their roster is more important to their legions of fans. A lot hinges on LeBron James‘ decision whether to exercise his player option or become a free agent. While it’s generally believed that James will stay put, either by opting in or by signing a new deal with Los Angeles, there’s no certainty until he commits contractually. If he’s open to going elsewhere, a team like the Sixers — with tons of cap room to work with — would love to add him to their star duo of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

The other major question mark regarding free agency is starting guard D’Angelo Russell, who has an $18.7MM player option. If Russell decides to go on the market, the Lakers will have to decide whether to pursue another contract with him or fill the hole in their lineup in another manner.

The Lakers will have more flexibility than in recent years regarding trading draft picks and making pick swaps. They control their own pick at No. 17 after the Pelicans deferred a trade obligation until next year’s draft. They also have two other future first-round picks to dangle after the free agency period begins in July.

In terms of tradeable salaries, the Lakers have four players besides their two superstars making at least $10MM next season — Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, Gabe Vincent and Jarred Vanderbilt. Reaves would be the most coveted of that group but the Lakers have been reluctant to part with the young guard. Vincent and Vanderbilt are coming off injury-marred seasons, leaving Hachimura ($17MM) as the most likely player to be dealt. However, the market for Hachimura would probably be lukewarm at best.

That leads us to our topic of the day: Assuming that LeBron remains with the team, what moves should the Lakers make this offseason to upgrade their team? Should they look to re-sign Russell if he opts out? Should they be more open to trading Reaves if they could get an All-Star level talent in return?

Let us know in the comments section. We look forward to your input.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Atlanta Hawks

June 1st, 2024 at 10:30am CST by Rory Maher

When I previewed the Hawks‘ 2023 offseason a year ago, I wrote that they had been trending in the wrong direction since they made a surprise appearance the Eastern Conference finals in 2021.

That remained true in 2023/24, with Atlanta going just 36-46 and failing to make the playoffs for the first time since that ’20/21 run. The team was eliminated in its first play-in game as the No. 10 seed, ending the season on a seven-game losing streak.

In general, much of what I wrote last year remains an issue for Atlanta. The team has talent on the roster, but the pieces don’t fit well together and not many of the players are well-rounded.

Last offseason, the Hawks had a messy financial situation — that’s still the case. Owner Tony Ressler has never paid the luxury tax and there’s almost no chance he will next season with this group.

During the season, not a whole lot went well from a big-picture perspective. Nearly every player on the roster either stayed about the same or their value took a hit (Trae Young, AJ Griffin, Kobe Bufkin, Saddiq Bey). That certainly isn’t what the Hawks were hoping for in the first full campaign under head coach Quin Snyder.

Even the best part of the team’s season — the emergence of third-year forward Jalen Johnson — comes with a couple of caveats. The 22-year-old was limited to 56 games due to a variety of injuries, plus he’ll be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason. Those negotiations will be far from straightforward — the sample size of Johnson producing at a high level is pretty small, yet he seemingly has more leverage than most players in his situation.

The Hawks were never anything more than mediocre this past season. Maybe they could have been .500 — or at least closer to it — if they were a little healthier, but they didn’t have abnormally poor injury luck, and slightly better on-court results would have been a far worse outcome than what actually transpired, for a number of different reasons.

If Atlanta had made the playoffs, the team wouldn’t have been in the draft lottery. The Hawks wound up winning the lottery, moving up from No. 10 to No. 1 overall. The odds of that happening were just 3%.

If the Hawks had not only made the playoffs but had also made another surprising run by winning a round or two, that could have inspired further belief in the current roster. Perhaps the front office would have considered minor tweaks instead of a more drastic overhaul, which is sorely needed.

The Hawks’ Offseason Plan

In most years, the No. 1 pick is extremely coveted. On some occasions, it can be franchise-altering. If the consensus among talent evaluators is accurate, 2024 is not that year.

The Hawks are reportedly expected to select a French prospect – either Zaccharie Risacher or Alexandre Sarr – with the top pick. UConn center Donovan Clingan has also reportedly received some consideration. The team should draft whichever player it thinks has the best chance of developing into an All-Star, because Atlanta needs more high-end talent.

Could the Hawks trade the top pick? Sure, they could. But if the perception is accurate that there isn’t a huge difference in value between No. 1 and No. 10, I don’t think the return would be worthwhile.

Atlanta will definitely be hoping it doesn’t win the lottery again in any of the next three years — as part of the Dejounte Murray deal, the Spurs control Atlanta’s unprotected first-round picks in 2025 and 2027 and they have swap rights with the Hawks in ’26.

Last year, I wrote that the biggest offseason question facing the Hawks was “what to do with the backcourt pairing of Young and Murray.” The biggest question now is, which of the two should they trade?

Murray likely has more trade value than Young, largely due to his contract. Murray surprisingly signed a four-year, $111MM+ extension last offseason when he was expected to be seeking a max in 2024 free agency — that was one of the best things that happened to Atlanta in the last calendar year, as he would have far less trade appeal on a max deal.

In a vacuum, Young is a better player, but you have to build your team specifically around his skill set. Frankly, I’m not sure how many teams would even be interested in taking on the three-time All-Star’s maximum-salary contract.

Both players are somewhat polarizing. Murray has had moments of immaturity and is at his best with the ball in his hands, but he isn’t an efficient scorer and his defense has gone from plus to minus the past few seasons — the Hawks were much better defensively when the 27-year-old was off the court in ’23/24.

Since they don’t control their own picks for the next three years, the Hawks have no incentive to tank. It also makes the Spurs a natural source of speculation as a trade partner, as Atlanta would love to have those picks back.

I don’t see San Antonio seriously entertaining trade proposals for Young or Murray, especially if they’re centered around those picks. It would give the Hawks a free avenue to rebuild, and their current position is much more precarious and thus more advantageous for the Spurs.

For all his offensive talent, Young has always been a liability on the other end. He actually tried much harder on defense last season, but he’s relatively diminutive for an NBA player and is physically over-matched. He also doesn’t fit the archetype of what the Spurs have valued in recent years (length, defense, versatility).

Murray is probably more realistic. San Antonio drafted him and helped him develop into an All-Star. The Spurs already traded him once though, and his fit with their current roster would be awkward — they badly need shooting and that isn’t one of his main strengths.

This is admittedly a little outside the box, given they’ve traded away players each of the past two deadlines, but would the Jazz have interest in Young or Murray? A recent report said Utah is open to trading its picks this year and that rival teams think owner Ryan Smith is ready to add more high-end talent to the roster.

Utah will have enough cap room this summer to acquire Murray outright without taking any money back. And the team would only have to move one mid-sized contract to fit Young’s contract on the books.

The Lakers will continue to be linked to both guards. The Magic project to have plenty of cap room and don’t have a clear long-term answer at point guard, but maybe they don’t need one. The Pelicans have been linked to Murray and also have a hole at point.

Clint Capela is a prime trade candidate. The veteran center is on an expiring $22.3MM expiring contract and remains productive, but he has certain limitations (non-shooter, doesn’t dribble or pass well) and he’s on the wrong side of 30 now. For a player who is very reliant on athleticism, that’s a little worrying.

De’Andre Hunter is another player who will continue to pop up in trade rumors, even if Atlanta’s salary cap crunch is resolved. I’m not sure how much value he’ll have either, given his injury history and relatively stagnant production. The idea of a 3-and-D combo forward has always been intriguing, but his actual play has never consistently aligned with that notion.

Bogdan Bogdanovic is another veteran whose situation is worth monitoring. His skill set is easier to plug-and-play and he would thus hold a wider appeal, but Atlanta values him for the same reasons.

All three of those players could potentially be acquired by cap-room teams without sending any money back in return. I’m not implying the Hawks will just straight up dump them without getting any assets back — they’re all solid players — but Atlanta is financially incentivized to get below the luxury tax.

Including the cap hold for the No. 1 pick, the Hawks will have 11 players on guaranteed deals and a team salary of $170.9MM. The luxury tax line is projected to be $171.3MM. Something has to give.

I don’t expect Atlanta to re-sign Bey unless he comes at a major discount after tearing the ACL in his left knee in March. He likely would have been tendered a $8.5MM qualifying offer to become a restricted free agent if the injury hadn’t occurred, but I’d be a little surprised if it happens now.

Realistically, no one on this roster should be untouchable, even Johnson. I’m not advocating for Atlanta to trade him or anything, but if some team really wants him and is willing to overpay, the Hawks have to at least listen. They aren’t in a position to say anyone is off limits — they need to get better any way they can at this point. Even doing a reset with another team’s picks is better than continually dealing with expensive rosters that don’t produce the results needed to justify the costs.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Bruno Fernando ($2,717,391)
    • Fernando’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 29.
  • Total: $2,717,391

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Garrison Mathews ($2,230,253): Bird rights
    • If his option is exercised, Mathews’ salary would remain non-guaranteed until June 29.
  • Total: $2,230,253

Restricted Free Agents

  • Saddiq Bey ($8,486,620 qualifying offer / $13,670,949 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $13,670,949

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he is no longer eligible to sign a two-way contract, Windler’s qualifying offer would be worth the minimum salary for a player with five years of NBA experience (projected to be $2,432,511). It would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 1 overall pick ($12,605,760 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $12,605,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Clint Capela (veteran)
  • Bruno Fernando (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 2.
  • Jalen Johnson (rookie scale)
  • Garrison Mathews (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
  • Trae Young (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Hawks project to operate over the cap and over the first tax apron. If they move below the first apron, they would gain access to the bi-annual exception ($4,681,000) and the full mid-level exception ($12,859,000) instead of the taxpayer mid-level exception and would regain access to their three trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $23,019,560 and expires on July 8).

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Chicago Bulls

May 31st, 2024 at 2:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls went 39-43 during the 2023/24 season, a year after going 40-42 in ’22/23 and two years after posting a 19-23 second-half record following Lonzo Ball‘s season-ending knee injury in ’21/22.

Yes, it briefly looked like the pieces might all fit together when Ball was healthy early in his first year with the team and the Bulls went 27-13, but that was a long time ago. Kristaps Porzingis was still a Maverick back then; Tyrese Haliburton was still a King; Carmelo Anthony was still in the NBA.

Whether or not Ball is able to return to action this fall, three knee surgeries and two-and-a-half seasons later, his presence won’t turn a team that has been unable to play .500 ball without him into a legitimate contender.

Changes are badly needed in Chicago, and with no indication that the Bulls are planning to replace head coach Billy Donovan or remove decision-making power from head of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas, those changes will have to come on the court, where the team simply can’t run out this roster again with only cosmetic changes.

The Bulls haven’t completed a trade involving a player on their roster since before Ball got hurt — their only deal during that time came on draft night in 2023, when they sent a couple future second-round picks to Washington for the right to draft Julian Phillips at No. 35. I expect that period of inactivity on the trade market to end in a major way this summer, given the ample evidence that the current group isn’t built to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs.

The Bulls’ Offseason Plan

Of course, even if the Bulls’ brass accepts the premise that this roster is stuck in the middle and major changes are necessary, there are no easy answers about what exactly the next moves look like.

When a team retools its roster, the process typically involves building around a rising young star and/or trading away an impact veteran or two in exchange for a valuable package of team-friendly contracts and draft assets. But the Bulls, who haven’t had a first-round pick in two of the last three years, don’t exactly have a plethora of young talent on rookie scale contracts to build around.

Coby White enjoyed a major breakout year in 2023/24 and is on a relatively team-friendly deal, but he projects more as an above-average starter going forward than a true star. Former second-rounder Ayo Dosunmu, another player already on his second contract, also looks more like a solid rotation piece than a future All-Star. Dalen Terry, Chicago’s 2022 first-rounder, has yet to earn a regular rotation role, while 2020 lottery pick Patrick Williams is headed for restricted free agency after suffering two major injuries in the past three years and never averaging more than 10.2 points per game. The Bulls are also picking outside the top 10 in this year’s draft, reducing the odds of finding a franchise cornerstone there.

Maybe, then, cashing in on some veteran trade chips is the way to go for Chicago. But the Bulls don’t have a Donovan Mitchell or a Rudy Gobert on hand to kick-start their retooling process like the Jazz did two summers ago when they traded those two stars for a total of eight players (including former Bull Lauri Markkanen), seven unprotected or lightly protected first-round picks, and three pick swaps.

The Bulls’ top trade chips come with more red flags, starting with Zach LaVine. LaVine is a terrific scorer who has a pair of All-Star nods and a career 38.2% three-point percentage on his résumé, but he’s coming off season-ending foot surgery, has never been an asset on the defensive end, and is owed approximately $138MM across the next three seasons. That contract is harder to stomach under the new CBA, which has created additional challenges for teams carrying multiple maximum-salary players. LaVine’s trade value will be at an all-time low this summer, so there’s no guarantee a trade partner will give up even one unprotected future first-rounder for him unless the Bulls attach another asset or take back some unwanted money.

Moving 33-year-old center Nikola Vucevic won’t be much easier. Vucevic’s shooting percentages in 2023/24 (.484 FG%, .294 3PT%) were below his career rates and he’s not a feared rim protector. His contract, which runs for two more years and is worth $41.5MM, isn’t especially onerous, but it’s not team-friendly either, which will limit his appeal as a trade piece.

DeMar DeRozan would have more value on the trade market than either LaVine or Vucevic, but his contract with the Bulls will expire next month, so he’s not a legitimate trade candidate unless the team can find a sign-and-trade partner. Alex Caruso might be Chicago’s most sought-after trade chip, but the team has set a high asking price for him during recent transaction windows, and now that he’s on an expiring contract, suitors would be reluctant to give up a substantial return unless they’re pretty confident they’d be able to extend him.

Given all these challenges, what might the Bulls’ offseason look like? Well, even if LaVine won’t return a huge package of first-round picks, it’s probably the right time for the two sides to go their separate ways, and there will likely be at least one team willing to take a swing on a player who once averaged 27.4 points per game on .507/.419/.849 shooting and is still just 29 years old.

Chicago’s blueprint in a LaVine trade should be the Russell Westbrook deal the Wizards made with the Lakers in 2021 — in that swap, Washington gave up Westbrook and a pair of future second-round picks in exchange for Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell, and that year’s No. 22 pick.

The Bulls likely won’t come out as well as Washington did, since Westbrook’s value was higher then than LaVine’s is now, but the goal should be to acquire a few role players whose cap hits are more manageable than LaVine’s $43MM figure and whom the Bulls might be able to get more out of than their previous team did. Any draft assets they can acquire on top of that would be great, but even just turning LaVine into two or three players who could play lesser roles and who could be flipped more easily in future deals could be a win, especially if the club can shed some salary in the process.

All indications are that the Bulls and DeRozan are interested in continuing their relationship as he enters his age-35 season. While I’m skeptical that DeRozan will still be playing at a high level by the time Chicago becomes a legitimate contender, I don’t hate the idea of re-signing him to a relatively short-term deal, perhaps one that includes two fully guaranteed years. The return in a sign-and-trade would likely be minimal, and he’s still a valuable enough asset that you’d prefer not to lose him for nothing. If the Bulls re-sign him and decide by the 2025 trade deadline that they want to tear the roster down further, DeRozan would be movable at that time.

Re-signing Williams to avoid losing the asset is also probably the right play — he has shown flashes of real two-way upside and the Bulls will be wary of repeating what happened with Markkanen, who blossomed into an All-Star after leaving Chicago. But the team will have to tread carefully in negotiations with Williams, who reportedly turned down a four-year, $64MM extension offer last fall. Investing long-term in the former No. 4 overall pick means betting on further growth and more consistent production. It’s a bit of a risk, so if there’s another suitor pushing up the price for Williams, the Bulls will have to determine just how high they’re willing to go to match it. It’s also worth noting that since he’ll be restricted, a sign-and-trade deal involving Williams would probably be more viable than one for DeRozan.

The Bulls will have to be careful about their proximity to the luxury tax line as they discuss new contracts with DeRozan and Williams. Once they fully guarantee Caruso’s salary and take into account the cap hold for the No. 11 overall pick, the Bulls will have about $130.4MM committed to 10 roster spots. On the surface, that looks like plenty of breathing room below the projected luxury tax line of $171.3MM, but DeRozan and Williams earned $38.4MM last season and are unlikely to make less than that in 2024/25. Bringing back those two players and adding two more minimum-salary players would almost certainly push team salary into tax territory, which the franchise has made an effort to avoid over the years.

With those financial constraints in mind, there are certain scenarios in which the Bulls may be inclined to let DeRozan or Williams walk, though that would be a tough sell to fans when the only real benefit is saving team ownership some money. Ideally, the Bulls would be able to cut costs elsewhere, perhaps by sending out more salary than they take back in a LaVine deal or by trading Jevon Carter‘s $6.5MM contract into another team’s cap room or trade exception.

Of course, moving off of Vucevic’s or Ball’s $20MM+ salaries would create more significant cap savings, but the Bulls couldn’t realistically expect anything of value back if the goal is to just dump those contracts. They’d definitely have to attach an asset or two to find a taker for Ball, and that may be true of Vucevic too if they’re not taking back an equivalent salary. It’s probably more prudent to hang onto those guys for now and see if they can improve their value as the season goes on.

Waiving and stretching the final year of Ball’s contract is another option if his knee continues to be a problem — that would save the team upwards of $14MM on its ’24/25 cap, likely avoiding tax issues in the short term, but would add $7MM per year for the following two seasons, so it’s not an ideal path.

For what it’s worth, it wouldn’t be hard to find a taker for Caruso’s expiring $10MM contract on the trade market without taking salary back, especially since teams will be able to use their mid-level exceptions as trade exceptions beginning this offseason. But the Bulls would likely only go that route if they’re hitting the full reset button and don’t intend to be competitive at all next season.

There’s certainly a case to be made that that’s the route management should take, but after Karnisovas stuck with this group for so long, it’s hard to picture him totally blowing it up all at once — the changes will likely be incremental, with LaVine among the first dominoes to fall.

Finally, while the No. 11 pick might not put Chicago in position to draft a future All-Star, there’s no reason the team shouldn’t be able to secure a prospect who will develop into a high-level rotation player. With White and Dosunmu expected to return and at least one or two of LaVine, Caruso, Carter, and/or Ball in the mix, the Bulls should be relatively set in the backcourt, but they could use help on the wing and in the frontcourt.

Tidjane Salaun, Ron Holland, Cody Williams, Ja’Kobe Walter, and Tristan Da Silva are some possible fits who could be available at No. 11. Zach Edey may be an intriguing option there too, since he appears more NBA-ready than many prospects in that range and the Bulls could have a hole at backup center if Andre Drummond commands a raise in free agency. Unless they’re able to shed salary in other moves, the Bulls will likely have to let Drummond walk and sign a minimum-salary veteran to back up Vucevic.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Alex Caruso ($6,890,000)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Caruso’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 30.
  • Onuralp Bitim ($1,891,857)
  • Andrew Funk (two-way)
  • Total: $8,781,857

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 11 overall pick ($5,210,760 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $5,210,760

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Lonzo Ball (veteran)
  • Alex Caruso (veteran)
  • DeMar DeRozan (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

  • Matt Thomas ($2,093,637 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $2,093,637

Note: Thomas’ cap hold is on the Bulls’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Bulls project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron. If they approach or exceed the first apron, they would lose access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception and would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
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