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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

June 11th, 2024 at 10:32am CST by Luke Adams

Entering opening night last fall, the Heat were coming off one of the most unusual seasons in recent memory. They barely finished above .500 during the 2022/23 regular season, posting a negative net rating (-0.5) across 82 games, then narrowly survived the play-in tournament to earn the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. From there, they knocked off the Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics in their first three postseason series, coming within three wins of a championship before ultimately falling to Denver.

During the subsequent 2023/24 season, Erik Spoelstra repeatedly insisted that his team wasn’t counting on a repeat of the year before and was taking the regular season seriously rather than waiting to turn it on in the postseason. But injuries and inconsistency resulted in a pretty similar outcome. Miami won 46 games instead of 44 and outscored its opponents, but once again finished in the bottom half of the league in net rating and needed a win in its second play-in game to grab the No. 8 playoff seed.

This time around, there was no postseason magic for the Heat, who were missing star Jimmy Butler due to a knee injury and managed just a single win over the top-seeded Celtics before their season came to an unceremonious end.

On one hand, the Heat are just one year removed from winning the East and perhaps could have made a deeper run this spring with a healthy Butler and a more favorable first-round matchup. But that’s a rosy view of their situation. The regular season results show that this team has been a relatively middle-of-the-pack squad over the past two seasons and, with Butler entering his age-35 season, probably can’t consider itself a legitimate title contender without some tweaks to the roster.

Based on what’s transpired since their season ended (more on that below), I wouldn’t rule out major offseason changes for the Heat, but it’s not in their DNA to fully rebuild (they haven’t won fewer than 37 games since 2007/08). So even if next season’s roster looks quite a bit different than the ’23/24 group, the goal will be to get further in the 2025 playoffs than they did this year.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan

The most pressing question facing the Heat this summer is whether or not Butler will still be on the roster on opening night. A breakup would be a bit of a surprise, given that the past five years have seemed like a near-perfect marriage between one of the NBA’s most competitive stars and a franchise that prides itself on its hard-working culture.

But shortly after the Heat’s season ended, word broke that Butler would be seeking another maximum-salary extension this summer, looking to replace his 2025/26 player option with a new two-year deal worth approximately $113MM. Asked at his end-of-season press conference about that possibility, longtime team president Pat Riley didn’t explicitly say whether or not the Heat would be willing to put that offer on the table, but suggested they wouldn’t exactly be eager to do so.

“It’s a big decision on our part to commit those kinds of resources, unless you have someone who is going to be available every night,” Riley said, referring to an injury history that has forced Butler to miss at least 15 games in every season since he arrived in Miami in 2019.

Riley also didn’t approve of a viral video that showed Butler claiming the Heat would’ve been able to beat Boston and New York if he’d been available to play in the postseason. The Heat president told reporters, “If you’re not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut on the criticism of those teams.”

A thinner-skinned player might respond to those comments by submitting a trade request, but the ability to be frank and honest with one another is an important reason why the relationship between Butler and the Heat has worked. I wouldn’t expect him to seek a change of scenery this offseason due to hurt feelings. But if Miami is unwilling to put an appealing extension offer on the table this summer, he might become more inclined to weigh all his options as he enters the final stage of his career.

While the Heat would be under no obligation to move Butler if he asked to be traded, he showed earlier in his career in Minnesota that he can make life difficult for his current team if his demands aren’t met. Still, I’m not necessarily counting on the situation coming to a head this offseason. Miami would have a hard time turning Butler into a player – or multiple players – who could increase the club’s ceiling in 2024/25, and the 34-year-old has been in the league long enough to know that the grass isn’t always greener in a new environment.

Three-time All-Star center Bam Adebayo will also be extension-eligible this summer and looks like a better bet than Butler to get a maximum-salary offer from the Heat, given his edge in age (27 in July) and availability (he has missed more than 11 games just once in the past five seasons). A max deal for Adebayo would be worth approximately $165MM over three years. He could potentially become eligible for more years and more money with an All-NBA berth or a Defensive Player of the Year trophy next summer, but I could see the big man opting to lock in that long-term guaranteed money now.

If building around Butler and Adebayo remains the plan going forward, I’d expect some combination of Tyler Herro ($29MM), Terry Rozier ($24.9MM), and Duncan Robinson ($19.4MM) – and perhaps all three – to be mentioned in trade rumors this summer. As long as they’re able to operate below the second tax apron, the Heat would be permitted to aggregate those salaries in a trade for another star, and the franchise has made a habit of going star-hunting over the years, including in the 2023 offseason when its bid for Damian Lillard came up short.

Cleveland (Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland) and Atlanta (Trae Young, Dejounte Murray) are among the situations the Heat figure to keep an eye on this offseason, with Mitchell in particular having long been considered a prime target.

If Mitchell or another well-fitting impact player hits the trade market, it’s possible a rival suitor would outbid Miami, like the Bucks did last year with Lillard. But the team has some strong trade assets, including All-Rookie first-teamer Jaime Jaquez, 21-year-old forward Nikola Jovic, this year’s No. 15 overall pick, and at least one future first-rounder — the Heat have traded away their 2025 and 2027 first-rounders, but protections could push those picks back to 2026 and 2028, so only the ’30 pick can be traded unconditionally, though the club could offer a handful of first-round swaps.

The more prudent approach to the offseason might be to keep those youngsters, who are on team-friendly contracts for multiple years, trust the scouting department to find another potential gem at No. 15, and perhaps attempt to make a less significant move involving one of Herro, Rozier, or Robinson. There’s a good deal of overlap in that trio — both Herro and Robinson provide most of their value with floor-spacing and outside shooting, while both Herro and Rozier are score-first guards – so if the Heat could find a way to turn one of them into more of a two-way wing or a traditional point guard, it would help balance the roster.

The Heat will have a sizable hole to fill on the wing if they’re unable to re-sign Caleb Martin, who is expected to turn down a $7.1MM player option, and Haywood Highsmith, who is headed for unrestricted free agency. Both players are due for raises and could be targeted by teams who have the full mid-level exception available.

The situation with those two players feels awfully reminiscent of the one the club faced with Max Strus and Gabe Vincent a year ago, when luxury tax concerns limited what Miami was able to offer that free agent duo. Strus ultimately agreed to join the Cavaliers, while Vincent signed with the Lakers.

The Heat already have over $163MM in guaranteed money on their books for seven players in 2024/25, and that figure would rise by another $14MM+ if Kevin Love, Josh Richardson, and Thomas Bryant exercise their player options and the team hangs onto its first-round pick. That would push team salary above $177MM, essentially assuring the Heat will operate over the first tax apron ($178.7MM) even without new deals for Martin or Highsmith.

Retaining either player would likely increase team salary beyond the $189.5MM second apron, so Miami will have a decision to make. It can resign itself to losing two solid role players for a second straight summer, try to shed salary elsewhere to create room under the second apron to bring back Martin and/or Highsmith, or simply re-sign both players and commit to being a second-apron team, accepting the roster-building restrictions that come with that.

None of those options are ideal, and the third one seems especially unlikely, given that the Heat will want to maintain the flexibility to aggregate salaries if a star becomes available. I expect the club to explore the second path in an effort to retain at least one of those two free agents, but if that’s not possible, Heat fans can at least take solace in the fact that the front office has done a good job over the years finding low-cost replacements to fill out the rotation when certain role players get too expensive.

The Heat will also benefit from the fact that there’s never a shortage of veterans who want to play in Miami due to a combination of the weather, the culture, and the organization’s distaste for rebuilding. Richardson missed half the season due to an injury and Bryant wasn’t quite as good a fit as the front office had hoped, but those are high-quality players for the minimum-salary tier, as is Love. Whether or not those guys opt in to return for another season, the Heat will likely head back to the free agent market in search of more minimum-salary bargains to fill out the back end of their roster.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Orlando Robinson ($2,120,693)
    • Robinson’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 15.
  • Total: $2,120,693

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Heat, Cain’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). That offer would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 15 overall pick ($4,244,160 cap hold)
  • No. 43 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $4,244,160

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Bam Adebayo (veteran)
  • Jimmy Butler (veteran)
  • Haywood Highsmith (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • Caleb Martin (veteran)
    • Player option must be exercised.
  • Duncan Robinson (veteran)
  • Terry Rozier (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Heat project to operate over the cap and over the first tax apron. If they move below the first apron, they would gain access to the bi-annual exception ($4,681,000) and the full mid-level exception ($12,859,000) instead of the taxpayer mid-level exception and would regain access to their three trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $9,450,000 and expires on July 8). If they surpass the second tax apron, they would lose access to the taxpayer MLE.

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

June 10th, 2024 at 2:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Mat Ishbia made it clear in February 2023 when he took over majority control of the Suns from Robert Sarver that he was prepared to spend aggressively (both in terms of money and trade assets) in a way the team’s previous owner never did. One of his very first moves was to approve a massive deal for star forward Kevin Durant at the 2023 deadline. He doubled down on that all-in strategy by signing off on a blockbuster trade for Bradley Beal last offseason.

The moves left Phoenix with a top-heavy roster headed by three players who will earn a combined $150MM+ in 2024/25 when Devin Booker‘s new super-max extension begins. That trio will surpass the projected $141MM cap on its own, and once the Suns account for salaries for Jusuf Nurkic ($18.1MM), Grayson Allen ($15.6MM), and Nassir Little ($6.8MM), their team salary will exceed $191MM, putting them over the projected second tax apron of $189.5MM with just six players. Even filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary players will push team salary well past the $200MM mark.

Operating over the second apron means two things: Phoenix will be on the hook for a huge luxury tax bill and will also face major restrictions when it comes to making roster moves. Ishbia clearly doesn’t mind writing a big check for luxury tax penalties, so the money shouldn’t be an issue, but those roster-building restrictions are concerning. This team was hardly dominant in its first year together. The Suns clinched a playoff spot on the final day of the season, then were swept out of the first round. The front office can’t simply run it back with the same roster.

Changes are needed, and those changes will be difficult to enact as a second-apron team. The Suns won’t have the mid-level or bi-annual exception at their disposal to sign free agents. They can’t acquire a player via sign-and-trade or use previously generated trade exceptions. They can make trades, but they won’t be able to take back more salary than they send out. They also can’t aggregate player contracts (e.g. trading Nurkic and Little for a $25MM player) and they’re prohibited from offering cash to sweeten an offer.

President of basketball operations James Jones has had a nice run of success in Phoenix since being named the permanent general manager in 2019, serving as the architect of a team that snapped a 10-year playoff drought, made an NBA Finals, and has averaged roughly 50 wins per season over the last four years. But figuring out how to meaningfully upgrade the current version of the roster might be his most challenging assignment yet.

The Suns’ Offseason Plan

When Phoenix’s season came to an end in April, league observers and pundits were quick to suggest that the team’s big three of Durant, Booker, and Beal should be broken up. There’s a logical case to be made for that path. The three stars are all pretty ball-dominant and their fit together is just OK, not great. Trading one of them for two or three lesser-paid players could help balance the roster both on the cap sheet and on the court.

It’s a strategy that sounds better in theory than in practice though. Of the three, Beal is probably the one you’d want to move, but he has a no-trade clause that essentially allows him to control the process, and his value has declined since he last made an All-Star team in 2021. He’s still a talented scorer (his .513/.430/.813 shooting line last season was especially impressive) and is a solid play-maker, but he’s not a plus defender and he’s owed $161MM over the next three seasons. The Suns didn’t have to give up a huge package to acquire him and can’t expect one back if they try to send him elsewhere.

The Suns could command a more substantial haul if they were willing to trade Durant or Booker, but those guys are top-20 players in the NBA, so it’s hard to envision a deal in which one of them is traded and Phoenix is able to increase its championship odds for 2025. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that a May report indicated that the Suns plan to hang onto their big three, which Jones confirmed in a radio appearance later in the month.

If Durant, Booker, and Beal aren’t going anywhere, that leaves Nurkic, Allen, and Little as the likeliest trade chips, though we can probably rule out Allen, who won’t be trade-eligible until October after signing an extension in April and whose three-and-D skill set makes him a valuable role player for the Suns. Little’s usefulness as a trade chip, meanwhile, is limited, since his $6.75MM salary can’t be aggregated, meaning he could only bring back a player earning less than that amount. The same is true of Nurkic, though his larger cap hit ($18.125MM) means the pool of players he could be traded for is much larger.

Unfortunately for the Suns, neither Nurkic nor Little has a ton of trade value on his own. I think Nurkic might be slightly underrated in some ways (he’s a very good rebounder and passer) but he’s obviously not the sort of versatile center who will help you space the floor on offense or guard out to the perimeter on defense, so he’s not a bargain at $18MM+ per year. Little showed some promise in Portland but wasn’t good in his first season in Phoenix, averaging a career-low 3.4 points per game as his three-point percentage dipped to just 30.0%.

The Suns would have to attach a sweetener to either player to realistically land an upgrade. Cash is off limits and Phoenix has traded away most of its future draft assets. However, the club could technically still offer this year’s No. 22 pick (the trade would have to be finalized after a selection is made), as well as its 2031 first-rounder (beginning in July). Would one of those picks along with Nurkic be enough for a meaningful addition?

Gerald Bourguet of PHNX Sports explored this topic recently, suggesting 20 hypothetical trades involving Nurkic and a first-round pick, but most of them either look like long shots or don’t necessarily do a whole lot for the Suns. Of Bourguet’s ideas, the one I find most compelling for both sides might be a deal with Charlotte for a less expensive center (Nick Richards), plus another role player or two. A package of Richards, Cody Martin, and Tre Mann, for instance, would (barely) fit within Nurkic’s outgoing salary — all three players could have roles in Phoenix, but it’s not such a talented trio that the retooling Hornets should realistically expect a better return than what the Suns could offer.

Attaching both movable first-rounders to Nurkic might net a stronger return than that Hornets example, but there’s certainly a ceiling on what the Suns can expect to do on the trade market. That’s why it’s so crucial that they re-sign free agent forward Royce O’Neale. While Phoenix can’t sign an outside free agent for more than the minimum, the team will have O’Neale’s Bird rights, allowing the front office to offer him any salary up to the max.

Of course, O’Neale won’t get nearly that much, but he’ll have some leverage to get a player-friendly deal out of the Suns, who would have no means to replace him with a comparable player if he leaves. A recent report suggested Phoenix might have to offer a three- or four-year deal to ensure O’Neale doesn’t sign with a rival suitor willing to offer him a comparable (or higher) starting salary on a shorter-term contract.

Eric Gordon, Josh Okogie, Drew Eubanks, and Damion Lee will have decisions to make on minimum-salary player options, which will help determine how many back-end roster spots the Suns have to fill. Some of those players (ie. Lee) seem likelier to opt in than others (ie. Gordon), but even if all of them return, the Suns won’t have a full roster and will likely need to make multiple minimum-salary signings.

I’d expect the team to take the same approach in free agency that it did a year ago, offering second-year player options to many of its top FA targets, essentially guaranteeing them up to $5-6MM rather than just offering a single-year minimum salary. Jones and his basketball operations department will look to improve upon last year’s hit rate on minimum-salary players, as signings like Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, and Chimezie Metu didn’t really work out.

While the Suns have few tools to make significant changes to their roster without taking a step backward, no Collective Bargaining Agreement language prevented them from making a major move on the sidelines, where Frank Vogel was fired just one season into a five-year contract worth a reported $31MM.

Phoenix didn’t conduct a lengthy search for Vogel’s replacement, zeroing in quickly on Mike Budenholzer and awarding him a five-year, $50MM deal. The hope will be that even if the 2024/25 roster ends up looking pretty similar to last year’s, Budenholzer will be able to get more out of it than Vogel did.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he’s no longer eligible to sign a two-way contract, Lee’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,244,249). It would include a small partial guarantee. Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Azubuike will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

  • No. 22 overall pick ($3,074,640 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $3,074,640

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kevin Durant (veteran)
  • Royce O’Neale (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • Jusuf Nurkic (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Suns’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Suns project to operate over the cap and over the second tax apron. That means they won’t have access to the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or any of their three existing trade exceptions.

  • None
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Community Shootaround: Free Agent Centers

June 9th, 2024 at 12:07pm CST by Rory Maher

When looking through the list of 2024 free agents, it quickly becomes evident that many of the top players tend to skew on the older side. LeBron James will be 40 at the end of December, James Harden and DeMar DeRozan both turn 35 in August, and Paul George is 34.

The top two free agent centers this year — Nic Claxton and Isaiah Hartenstein — are 25 and 26, however, which is interesting. They’re also both unrestricted free agents.

While reports have indicated Claxton is expected to re-sign with the Nets, perhaps for a deal in the range of $20-25MM annually, Hartenstein’s future is a little more cloudy because the Knicks only hold his Early Bird rights. That means they are limited to offering him a maximum of about $72.5MM over four years, and it’s possible he could get more than that from another team.

Unlike Tyrese Maxey, who is a lock to return to Philadelphia on a max deal in restricted free agency, it’s possible Precious Achiuwa (25 in September) could sign an offer sheet with another team and the Knicks might not match, given their financial situation now and going forward. Achiuwa is more of a four/five than a true center, but he’s another intriguing big man on the market.

Jalen Smith, 24, had an outstanding regular season off the bench for Indiana, but was largely a non-factor in the playoffs, having been supplanted in the rotation by Isaiah Jackson. That was an interesting development, because Smith seems pretty likely to exceed the $5.4MM player option he holds for 2024/25 in free agency (Jackson, on the other hand, still has another year left on his rookie scale contract).

Goga Bitadze, who turns 25 next month, is another young center who flew under the radar a bit in ’23/24. He started the early portion of the season while Wendell Carter was recovering from hand surgery and played pretty well, particularly defensively, averaging 7.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in 33 games (23.9 minutes). The Magic have Carter, Jonathan Isaac and Moritz Wagner ahead of Bitadze on the depth chart, so he might look for a larger role elsewhere.

Xavier Tillman (25) and James Wiseman (23) are among the other young free agent centers in 2024, with veterans Jonas Valanciunas and Andre Drummond arguably the top big men over 30 available. Former No. 2 overall pick Wiseman could be restricted if Detroit tenders him a $7.7MM qualifying offer, though that seems unlikely to happen.

What do you think of this year’s group of free agent centers? Will Hartenstein stay with the Knicks or leave for more money elsewhere? What about Achiuwa? Did we overlook anyone? Head to the comments to let us know what you think.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

June 8th, 2024 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

For the second time in three years, the Sixers opened their season with a major trade request hanging over the team. Unlike in 2021/22, when the acrimonious Ben Simmons saga dragged out all the way to the February trade deadline, Daryl Morey was able to resolve James Harden‘s trade demand early in the fall, reaching an agreement during the second week of the regular season to send the former MVP to the Clippers in exchange for a package of role players and draft picks.

It’s highly unlikely that any of those future draft picks will ever turn into a player of Harden’s caliber, and none of the four veterans sent to Philadelphia in the swap figure to be long-term keepers. But with a disgruntled player on a pricey expiring deal, the 76ers didn’t have much leverage in trade talks and did well to acquire players who fit the roster in the short term and assets that could be flipped in future moves — one of the players Philadelphia received from L.A., Marcus Morris, was sent out at the trade deadline in a deal for Buddy Hield, for instance.

Perhaps even more important than the assets the Sixers got for Harden was the opportunity his exit created for fourth-year guard Tyrese Maxey. With Harden no longer in the picture, Maxey saw his usage rate increase to a career-high 28.0% and responded by posting new career bests in points (25.9), assists (6.2), and rebounds (3.7) per game, among other categories. His scoring efficiency took a hit, but his .450/.373/.868 shooting line was still just fine, and the 23-year-old was named the NBA’s Most Improved Player for his star turn.

Maxey already looked like a future building block in Philadelphia, but his 2023/24 performance proved he’s capable of being a legitimate No. 2 to former MVP Joel Embiid. The Sixers had a 29-7 record in the games those two played together and outscored opponents by +12.4 points per 100 possessions when they shared the court.

Unfortunately, Embiid’s injury issues flared up again, with a meniscus tear limiting him to 39 regular season games and reducing his mobility and effectiveness in the postseason. For the first time since 2020, the 76ers didn’t win a playoff series this spring, but that early postseason exit wasn’t cause for panic, since the front office had already anticipated making major roster changes during the offseason.

Having dumped P.J. Tucker‘s contract in the Harden trade, the Sixers will head into this summer with only one guaranteed contract (Embiid) on their cap for 2024/25 and Maxey poised to re-sign as a restricted free agent. Besides those two players, no one else who finished the season with Philadelphia is a lock to be back in the fall.

That’s a lot of uncertainty entering an offseason, which is a little scary, but the duo of Embiid and Maxey is a great place to start. So even if the Sixers miss out on their top target(s) and have to turn to Plan B or C, they’re well-positioned to take a step forward following a 47-35 season in ’23/24.

The Sixers’ Offseason Plan

Taking into account Embiid’s salary, Maxey’s cap hold, the cap hold for the No. 16 overall pick, and rookie-minimum cap holds for nine empty roster spots, the Sixers could generate up to about $62MM in cap room. That figure, which would rely on renouncing all the team’s current free agents and waiving players on non-guaranteed salaries (including Paul Reed), could rise to nearly $65MM if Philadelphia also trades away its draft pick. The club will be able to go over the cap to re-sign Maxey to a maximum-salary contract after it uses up its room.

$65MM is a ton of cap space, but it would disappear quickly with a major move or two. The Sixers’ top target is reportedly Paul George, who can become an unrestricted free agent this summer if he doesn’t reach an extension agreement with the Clippers and turns down his 2024/25 player option. It’s unclear how viable a move to Philadelphia is for George – he may just be using the 76ers for leverage purposes to get the deal he wants in Los Angeles – but if they hope to lure him away from his hometown, the Sixers would have to offer the star forward a maximum-salary contract that would start at a projected $49.35MM.

Jimmy Butler has also frequently been cited as a prime target for Morey, though the former Sixer would need to be acquired via trade, which wouldn’t be easy — the Heat aren’t looking to rebuild, so if the 76ers offered a package heavy on draft assets and cap relief, Miami would have to be confident they could turn those assets into another impact player. If Philadelphia could find a way to pry Butler away from the Heat, it would mean accommodating his $48.8MM salary.

Landing a star like George or Butler would be a home run for the Sixers, since either player would be an ideal fit on the wing alongside Embiid and Maxey. But it would reduce Philadelphia’s remaining cap room to approximately $13-17MM, putting the team in position to realistically make just two or three more signings above the minimum — one or two using that remaining cap room, and another one using the $8MM room exception.

The result would be an awfully top-heavy roster, similar to the one the Suns had this past season. You could certainly make the case that Maxey, George (or Butler), and Embiid would fit together better than Phoenix’s three stars do. However, there would be a lot of pressure on Philadelphia’s stars to stay healthy, which Embiid hasn’t been able to do in the past — neither George nor Butler has the best track record on that front either.

If the Sixers don’t land a star using their cap room – Brandon Ingram and OG Anunoby have been mentioned as other possible targets who wouldn’t be quite as highly paid in 2024/25 as George or Butler – the expectation is that they’ll focus on signing useful role players to lucrative short-term contracts, similar to the one Bruce Brown got from Indiana last summer.

With several teams chasing Brown using the full mid-level exception (starting at $12.4MM), the Pacers took advantage of their cap room to give him a two-year deal that started at $22MM and included a second-year team option worth $23MM. It made Brown an ideal trade chip when the club needed a salary-matching piece for Pascal Siakam a few months later. And if that trade opportunity hadn’t arisen, Indiana would have had the option of clearing Brown’s salary off the books after just one year, regaining cap flexibility.

If Philadelphia takes a similar route, free agents like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Klay Thompson, and Malik Monk look like a few of the most logical targets. The Nuggets and Warriors would have luxury-tax and apron concerns if they have to match a big starting salary for Caldwell-Pope or Thompson, respectively, while the Kings are limited to offering Monk a starting salary in the $17.4MM range since they only hold his Early Bird rights.

A tier or two below those guys, Caleb Martin, Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, Reggie Jackson, Precious Achiuwa, and Malik Beasley are among the other free agents whose current teams may face financial restrictions due to their proximity to the tax (or, in Beasley’s case, a lack of Bird rights). If he hadn’t already had a brief stint in Philadelphia, I’d view center Andre Drummond as another ideal target for the Sixers, since he could back up Embiid and slide into the starting five if and when the star center is unavailable. I still think he makes a lot of sense.

While going this direction could be a more prudent path than spending nearly $50MM on a single player entering his mid-30s, it might cost upwards of $50MM in 2024/25 to land a pair of those top-tier Plan B targets (KCP, Thompson, and Monk), so the Sixers’ cap room could disappear almost as quickly.

No matter what direction Philadelphia goes with its cap space, it will be crucial for the team to nail its minimum-salary signings once its room dries up. That was one of the Suns’ issues this past season — they signed eight players to minimum-salary contracts last summer, but fewer than half of them earned regular minutes. The Sixers will aim to do better with the back half of their roster.

Of the players who finished this past season in Philadelphia, Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and Cameron Payne are among the useful role players who might be willing to return for the veteran’s minimum (though I think some of them could do better than that on the open market). There will be other options around the league as well, especially if the Sixers can offer them a shot at regular minutes and a chance to contend.

Tobias Harris, Hield, and De’Anthony Melton aren’t minimum-salary players, so if the Sixers want to bring any of them back, it would cut into their cap room. Harris and Hield seem unlikely to return though, meaning Melton is the only one Philadelphia might have to account for.

The versatile defensive-minded guard made $8MM last season and would be a great re-addition at that price again using the room exception. If he’d finished the season healthy, Melton would definitely have stronger offers than that, but given the back issues that limited him to six games after January 12, that’s no longer a sure thing, which could work in Philadelphia’s favor.

I don’t mind the idea of the 76ers keeping the No. 16 overall pick, since it would give them an opportunity to get a team-friendly four-year contract on their books, but there are scenarios in which I think a trade makes more sense. One of my favorite concepts is a potential deal with the Wizards – who are said to be seeking another first-round pick – for Corey Kispert, a sharpshooter who was drafted by the previous front office in Washington and is in line for a rookie scale extension this offseason.

To be clear, I have no insider information suggesting the Sixers and Wizards are exploring such a trade, and it’s possible Philadelphia would have to sweeten the pot beyond offering a mid-first-rounder in a weak draft. But a trade target like Kispert would make perfect sense, since he’d take up only a small fraction of the team’s cap room this summer (he’s owed $5.7MM in 2024/25, not much more than the $4MM cap hold for the No. 16 pick) and then would get a raise in a year, when the 76ers would be in position to pay him.

With so many options available to them this offseason, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the Sixers’ offseason will play out. But that unpredictability is what will make them one of the most fun clubs to follow in the next month or two, with the pressure on Morey to get Embiid (who turned 30 in March) the supporting cast he needs to vie for his first championship.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Jeff Dowtin ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
    • Dowtin’s salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $2,196,970

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 16 overall pick ($4,032,240 cap hold)
  • No. 41 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $4,032,240

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Sixers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Sixers project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce six trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $6,831,413) in order to use cap room.

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings

June 7th, 2024 at 9:24pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kings were one of the NBA’s feel-good stories of the 2022/23 season. First-year head coach Mike Brown led Sacramento to its best record (48-34) since 2005 and its first playoff berth since 2006, with no team scoring more points per 100 possessions (118.6) than the Kings.

In many ways, the sequel in 2023/24 was a worthy follow-up — despite dealing with injuries to a couple key role players down the stretch, the Kings won 46 games, registering consecutive seasons above .500 for the first time in nearly two decades.

But the vibes weren’t quite as good in Sacramento for a few reasons. For one, while Brown surely appreciated the improvements on defense (the Kings went from 24th in ’22/23 to 14th this past season), the No. 1 offense took a major step back (to 13th) and wasn’t the crowd-pleasing, well-oiled machine it was a year earlier.

More importantly, with the postseason drought over, the expectations were higher in Sacramento, where the goal was to take another step forward and perhaps win a playoff series. Instead, the Kings found themselves fighting for their postseason life in a more competitive Western Conference.

A year after their 48 wins comfortably earned them the No. 3 seed, the Kings claimed the No. 9 spot in the West despite winning only two fewer regular season games. They got some level of revenge against the Warriors – who eliminated them in the first round in 2023 – in the 9 vs. 10 play-in game, but fell to the Pelicans in the play-in game to determine the conference’s No. 8 seed, bringing their season to an end before the playoffs tipped off in earnest.

A team’s improvement isn’t always linear, so the slight downturn this season doesn’t mean this version of the Kings can’t continue to get better in 2024/25. With no dominant franchises far ahead of the pack in the West, the front office may not have to make major changes to the roster to become a legitimate contender. Still, Monte McNair and his basketball operations team figure to do all they can this summer to figure out how to upgrade the current group with somewhat limited resources.

The Kings’ Offseason Plan

The Kings took care of one of the most important items on their offseason to-do list a week ago, reaching an agreement on a multiyear extension for Brown. The veteran coach signed a four-year contract with the franchise when he was hired in 2022, but the final year was a mutual option, so he would’ve essentially been on an expiring deal in 2024/25 if negotiations between the two sides had reached an impasse, which briefly looked like it might happen last month.

Brown’s has yet to win a championship as a head coach, but his playoff résumé is still relatively strong, which bodes well for Sacramento going forward — he has a winning overall record (50-40) in the postseason and advanced beyond the first round for six straight seasons with the Cavaliers and Lakers. He’s also respected throughout the league, is one year removed from earning Coach of the Year honors, and is the best coach the Kings have had in quite some time.

Given the rising cost of coaching salaries around the NBA, Sacramento did well to secure Brown to a three-year deal with a base value of $8.5MM per year (it can be worth up to $10MM annually with incentives). If things go south in the next year or two, the Kings aren’t on the hook for Brown long-term, and if things go well, they can be more confident about offering him an eight-figure salary commensurate with what some of his more accomplished colleagues around the NBA have received in the last year or two.

With Brown locked up, the focus in the coming weeks will be on the roster, where the biggest question is what will happen with free agent wing Malik Monk. The Sixth Man of the Year runner-up in 2024, Monk has been one of the Kings’ most important rotation players in the past couple years, evolving into more than just a shooter. His 3.9 assists per game in 2022/23 were a career high, which he promptly eclipsed by bumping that number to 5.1 APG in ’23/24.

The challenge when it comes to re-signing Monk is twofold. For one, Sacramento only holds the 26-year-old’s Early Bird rights, which means the team can offer up to a 75% raise on his previous $9.95MM salary (with 8% annual raises in subsequent years). That works out to about $17.4MM in year one and just shy of $78MM in total over four years. That would be a strong offer, but it’s possible a team with cap room and a need for shooting (Detroit? Orlando?) would top it.

In comments to reporters after the season, Monk suggested he wouldn’t necessarily just accept the biggest offer he gets, but if another suitor gives him more money than the Kings can put on the table and offers him a starting role, it could be hard to turn it down.

Even if we assume the Kings are able to re-sign Monk with an Early Bird offer, giving him a sizable salary bump would put the club in danger of surpassing the luxury tax line. Taking into account Keon Ellis‘ non-guaranteed salary and the cap hold for the No. 13 pick, Sacramento has about $155MM on the books for 12 players. Adding a $17.4MM salary for Monk would push that total above the projected luxury tax line ($171.3MM) with at least one more roster spot to be filled.

Letting the veteran shooting guard walk – or losing him to a higher bidder – would create enough breathing room below the tax line for Sacramento use its entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.9MM) on a replacement, but it would be unrealistic to expect the MLE to yield a player whose impact would match or exceed Monk’s. I expect the Kings to push to re-sign him and then address the tax issue later if necessary — it probably wouldn’t be too challenging to shed a contract or two to duck the tax if that’s what team ownership wants.

Of course, if Monk returns, the Kings’ roster in 2024/25 could look quite similar to the one we saw this past season. The team wouldn’t be able to do much in free agency after re-signing Monk and could end up just adding a new prospect with the No. 13 pick, salary-dumping a modest contract (maybe Sasha Vezenkov and his $6.66MM cap hit), and perhaps swapping out a couple back-of-the-roster minimum-salary players.

While that wouldn’t inspire a ton of excitement heading into the fall, it wouldn’t be a total disaster. Sacramento has high hopes for 2022’s No. 4 overall pick Keegan Murray, a big 23-year-old wing who increased his scoring average to 15.2 PPG in 2023/24 and has made 38.4% of his three-pointers since entering the league two years ago. Murray made improvements on the defensive end in his sophomore season and is the sort of breakout candidate who could legitimately raise the Kings’ ceiling if he continues to develop into a two-way star.

Turning to the trade market would be another option for the Kings, who probably wouldn’t mind upgrading their other forward spot, currently manned primarily by Harrison Barnes and Trey Lyles. Sacramento was viewed as a possible Pascal Siakam suitor before he was traded to the Pacers, but putting together a package for that caliber of player without including Murray isn’t simple.

The Kings’ other recent lottery pick, Davion Mitchell (No. 9 in 2021), is a solid defender, but he fell below a two-way player (Ellis) on the backcourt depth chart at times and doesn’t have nearly the trade value that Murray would. A trade package built around Mitchell and either Barnes or Kevin Huerter and future first-round picks would have some appeal, but could probably be outbid by other would-be contenders seeking a star.

It’s also worth noting that, after finishing in the lottery this year, the Kings still owe a 2025 first-round pick to Atlanta, meaning the earliest first-rounder they can trade (outside of this year’s No. 13 pick) would be in 2027 — and it could be pushed back by a year if Sacramento’s 2025 first-round selection lands in the top 12 and is protected again.

Rather than taking a huge swing on the trade market, perhaps the Kings will gauge the value of a package headlined by Huerter and a future first-rounder (or this year’s No. 13). Huerter is a talented outside shooter, but he’s coming off shoulder surgery and his limitations on defense prompted Brown to experiment with starting Chris Duarte in his place in January.

Barnes’ underrated two-way contributions have arguably been more meaningful than Huerter’s, so the veteran forward should only end up on the trade block if a clear upgrade at his position is available. Huerter looks to me like the more expendable salary-matching piece, especially since the Kings have a good deal of shooting elsewhere on the roster. Sacramento could also potentially add another outside threat with the No. 13 pick in the draft, though the club could go in any number of directions with that lottery selection and should probably just be targeting the best player available if the pick isn’t traded.

We’ve made it this far without mentioning the Kings’ two stars – Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox – but their contract situations are relatively stable and they won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. That’s especially true of Sabonis, who signed a new deal last summer and will be under team control for four more seasons.

Fox has two years left on his current pact and will be extension-eligible this offseason. The star guard may want to see if he can gain super-max eligibility by making an All-NBA team next spring, lining himself up for a maximum salary worth up to 35% of the cap instead of 30%. So if he and the Kings pass on an extension this offseason, there will be no reason for concern — if they still can’t come to terms in 2025, that could spell trouble, but there’s no indication at this point that we’re headed down that path.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 13 overall pick ($4,702,800 cap hold)
  • No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $4,702,800

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Chris Duarte (rookie scale)
  • De’Aaron Fox (veteran)
  • Kevin Huerter (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Davion Mitchell (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Kings project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Golden State Warriors

June 6th, 2024 at 10:02pm CST by Luke Adams

No NBA team has spent more money during the past two seasons on player salaries and luxury tax payments than the Warriors. The return on those hundreds of millions of dollars committed by ownership? A 90-74 regular season record, a single playoff series win in 2023, and a one-and-done play-in appearance in 2024.

Of course, the Warriors still have many of the same pieces on the current roster that they did on the version that won a championship in 2022. But the club’s longtime core stars are all in their mid-30s and need more help from the supporting cast than they once did.

Following a disappointing finish to the 2023/24 season, Golden State ownership and management will need to make a crucial decision this summer.

Is it worth maximizing the years the Warriors have left with all-time great Stephen Curry by continuing to pour massive amounts of money into player payroll and remaining in championship-or-bust mode? Or is the time right to take a step back by shedding some salary, ducking below the tax aprons, and gaining access to more roster-building tools, even if it means sacrificing a couple assets and perhaps ending an important longtime relationship along the way?

Cutting costs doesn’t necessarily mean the Warriors can’t be a contender in 2024/25 and beyond, but one or two missteps in that process could put the team at risk of wasting Curry’s remaining high-level years. It will be a tricky tightrope to walk for general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr., who is in just his second year as Golden State’s head of basketball operations.

The Warriors’ Offseason Plan

If money continues to be no object for the Warriors, re-signing veteran sharpshooter Klay Thompson, who will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, should be atop their to-do list. The two sides have expressed mutual interest in continuing their relationship, which began when Golden State drafted Thompson 11th overall back in 2011. But Thompson reportedly turned down a two-year, $48MM extension prior to the season and seems intent on testing the open market to get a sense of his options.

The Warriors are in a difficult spot with Thompson. He’s not the same player he was in his best years, as ACL and Achilles tears in 2019 and 2020 sapped him of some athleticism and slowed down his lateral movement on defense. But he’s still one of the NBA’s best shooters (38.7% on 9.0 attempts per game in 2023/24) and will likely draw significant interest from young teams with cap room that covet both his floor-spacing ability and his championship experience.

As Anthony Slater of The Athletic recently noted, clubs like the Thunder, Magic, and Sixers could make life difficult for Golden State by putting lucrative short-term offers on the table for the 34-year-old, forcing the Warriors to go a little higher than they’d be comfortable with in order to retain him.

Letting Thompson go would significantly reduce the payroll, but it wouldn’t allow the Warriors to sign an equivalent replacement (ie. a player making well above the mid-level exception), since they still wouldn’t be in position to open up cap room.

If the Dubs intend to take the aggressive, win-at-any-cost route, it could also mean using Chris Paul‘s $30MM expiring contract as a trade chip for an impact player who is more firmly in his prime. The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement no longer allows an over-the-cap team to trade a $30MM non-guaranteed salary for a $30MM guaranteed salary, since only the guaranteed portion counts for matching purposes. But Golden State could be somewhat flexible on the trade market with Paul — for instance, if the team targets a player making $20MM, it could just guarantee $20MM of CP3’s salary rather than having to guarantee the full amount.

Paul won’t have much value on his own, so attaching draft assets and/or young prospects would be necessary to build an appealing package. The Warriors could theoretically offer up to three future first-round picks despite having sent their 2030 first-rounder to Washington last offseason — that pick includes top-20 protection, so Golden State could trade it a second time if its new trade partner is willing to accept 21-30 protection (that team, in other words, would acquire it if it lands in the 1-20 range).

In terms of prospects, Moses Moody may be the most expendable of Golden State’s young players, given that he’s entering his fourth season and has yet to establish himself as a consistent rotation piece. Trade partners would likely have more interest in Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis, both of whom are under very affordable team control for three more seasons, and especially Jonathan Kuminga, who has the most star potential of the quartet.

I don’t love this high-spending, win-now path for the Warriors though, particularly since there’s no obvious star trade candidate who would turn the club into a title favorite. Going that route would almost certainly mean operating over the second tax apron, which would impose several severe roster-building limitations, including an inability to aggregate salaries in trades or to sign free agents to more than minimum-salary contracts. Co-owner Joe Lacob has talked about ideally wanting to avoid being in that territory going forward.

So let’s consider the alternative.

Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kuminga, Moody, Podziemski, and Jackson-Davis are owed a combined $125MM in guaranteed money. Adding Kevon Looney ($8MM) and Gary Payton II ($9.13MM) would bump that figure to $142MM+, but Looney’s salary is only guaranteed for $3MM, while Payton holds a player option.

Let’s say Looney, who played a pretty limited role last season, is waived and re-signs for the minimum. And let’s assume that Payton, who spoke in April about possibly “redoing” his contract, is willing to accept a pay cut in 2024/25 (to, say, $6MM) if he gets another guaranteed year or two tacked onto a new deal.

Now we’re at $136MM for nine players, with a projected luxury tax line around $171MM. With at least five more players needed to fill out the roster, that admittedly doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room to get a new deal for Thompson under the tax threshold, unless he’s willing to accept a relatively team-friendly rate (perhaps at or below the team’s previous extension offer). But with the first apron projected for about $179MM, the Warriors could bring back Thompson, waive Paul rather than trying to trade him, and have the ability to comfortably fill their remaining roster spots without surpassing either apron.

Even with the repeater tax rate applied to them, the Warriors’ tax bill would be fairly modest if they’re just a few million dollars above the tax line. And by operating under the aprons, Golden State could use some of the mid-level exception to pursue a rotation player and would be able to explore the trade market (perhaps dangling Wiggins?) without having to worry about not being able to aggregate salaries or take back more salary than they’re sending out.

If Thompson walks, the Warriors could offer a more significant role to Moody and would have additional flexibility on the trade market with Paul’s expiring deal, which would be a stronger matching piece as long as the team’s salary remains below the aprons.

While apron teams can’t take back more than 100% of their outgoing guaranteed salary in a trade, the salary-matching rules for non-apron teams are far more lenient. To acquire that aforementioned hypothetical $20MM target, Golden State would only have to guarantee Paul’s salary for $13.5MM (instead of $20MM as an apron team), increasing his value to any trade partner that intends to simply waive him.

It’s hard to envision a scenario in which either Curry or Green isn’t a Warrior next season, but there are no other players on the roster whom I view as locks to still be in Golden State by opening night. There are simply too many permutations for how this offseason could play out, with Thompson’s free agency and the handling of Paul’s expiring contract acting as the fulcrums that will dictate how the rest of the summer goes.

If Kuminga remains with the club – and I think he should – figuring out whether or not to extend him this offseason will represent another major decision for Warriors management. The third-year forward broke out in a big way beginning in the middle of the 2023/24 season after he saw inconsistent minutes during his first two-plus years in the NBA. He’s not a maximum-salary player yet, but Kuminga has probably earned a $100MM+ payday. It remains to be seen whether that payday will come from Golden State and whether it will happen this year.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Chris Paul ($30,000,000)
    • Paul’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 28.
  • Kevon Looney ($5,000,000)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Looney’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 24.
  • Gui Santos ($1,891,857)
  • Pat Spencer (two-way)
  • Total: $36,891,857

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Robinson will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

  • No. 52 overall pick (no cap hold)

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Stephen Curry (veteran)
  • Jonathan Kuminga (rookie scale)
  • Kevon Looney (veteran)
  • Moses Moody (rookie scale)
  • Chris Paul (veteran)
  • Gary Payton II (veteran)
    • Player option must be exercised.
  • Klay Thompson (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Warriors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Warriors project to operate over the cap. Their proximity to the tax aprons will be determined largely by their decisions with Thompson and Paul. If the Warriors operate above the first tax apron, they will lose access to all of the exceptions noted below and would instead be able to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000). If they operate above both tax aprons, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions, including the taxpayer MLE.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $2,337,720
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $2,019,706
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

June 5th, 2024 at 3:14pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning no more than 22 games for three consecutive seasons, the Rockets entered last summer armed with a ton of cap room and a determination to move out of their rebuilding phrase and toward legitimate contention. After hiring Ime Udoka as their new head coach, they focused on veteran free agents who could make an impact on both ends of the court, missing out on Brook Lopez but landing Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.

The Rockets’ offseason moves were a success. VanVleet, Brooks, and Udoka were culture-setters in Houston, imposing their personalities on a team that played with a hard-nosed edge. The young core took a major step forward, as Alperen Sengun enjoying a breakout year, Jalen Green finished the season strong, Jabari Smith made significant strides in his second season, and Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore showed real promise as rookies.

While the Rockets still fell short of the postseason, they finished with a 41-41 record in a competitive Western Conference, nearly doubling their win total after posting a 22-60 mark in 2022/23.

The roster will start to get more expensive once the players on rookie contracts graduate to their second deals, but the front office has done a nice job staggering its financial commitments (VanVleet’s guaranteed money expires in 2025 at the same time Green’s and Sengun’s next deals would begin) and has an excess of future first-round picks despite not controlling its own 2024 and 2026 first-rounders. Houston’s youngsters have room to keep improving, and the team has the cap and roster flexibility to continue pursuing upgrades.

This version of the Rockets doesn’t yet have the same high ceiling that the James Harden-led teams of the late-2010s did, but there’s reason for genuine optimism in Houston again after a rough couple years following the trade that sent Harden to Brooklyn.

The Rockets’ Offseason Plan

After carrying more than $60MM in cap room into the 2023 offseason, the Rockets don’t project to be under the cap this summer. They have nearly $122MM in guaranteed money on the books, plus a $10MM cap hold for their lottery pick, leaving no meaningful room below the projected cap of $141MM even if they purge the roster of non-guaranteed salary, team options, and cap holds for free agents.

Houston does have some interesting decisions to make though, starting with whether or not to retain Jeff Green ($8MM team option), Jock Landale ($8MM non-guaranteed salary), and Jae’Sean Tate ($7.6MM team option).

It’s hard to make a convincing case that any of Green, Landale, or Tate would match or exceed their current 2024/25 salaries if they were waived and then signed new contracts. But it won’t be all that surprising if the Rockets bring back at least two – and perhaps all three – of those players for one important reason: their mid-sized cap hits and lack of guaranteed money beyond ’24/25 would make them logical trade chips in a deal for an impact player.

With no cap room available, the Rockets aren’t in position to take on a significant salary outright, and they don’t have many obviously expendable guaranteed contracts on their books. Only six Houston players are earning more than $5.5MM next season: VanVleet, Brooks, Steven Adams, Green, Smith, and Thompson.

I can’t see VanVleet and Brooks going anywhere after the positive impact they had in their first year as Rockets; Houston will want to see what it has in Adams after acquiring an injured version of him at February’s trade deadline; and while perhaps one of those younger players could be included in a package for a star, none are earning more than $12.5MM, so their salary-matching potential is limited.

In other words, the combined $23.6MM that Green, Landale, and Tate would be owed in 2024/25 could come in handy as flotsam in a trade, even if none of those players are major contributors on the court. Guaranteeing all three contracts would increase the Rockets’ team salary to about $154MM for 13 players, giving the club plenty of breathing room below the projected luxury tax line of $171MM. The club would still have enough flexibility to go shopping for one more complementary role player using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (it will be worth about $12.9MM).

The trade target most frequently connected to the Rockets has been Nets forward Mikal Bridges, who makes sense for a variety of reasons. For one, he’s the sort of two-way contributor Houston has prioritized under Udoka. Bridges’ scoring efficiency and perimeter defense took a step back this past season, but that’s likely because he was asked to be the No. 1 offensive option in Brooklyn. If he were a Rocket, he’d be leaned on more for his three-and-D prowess than his scoring, allowing him to take better shots on offense and preserve his energy for tough defensive assignments.

One crucial reason Bridges would be such a logical trade target is the fact that the Rockets control the Nets’ first-round draft picks for several years, starting with the No. 3 overall pick in 2024. Houston also owns Brooklyn’s unprotected 2026 first-rounder and has swap rights in 2025 and 2027.

Bridges’ $23.3MM cap hit would be easy to match with expiring contracts and perhaps a prospect or two, and the Rockets could offer the Nets control of their first-round picks back (along with other draft assets), putting Brooklyn in a far better position to retool. However, to date, the Nets have resisted the idea of trading Bridges, reportedly expressing a preference to build around him.

If the Rockets have no luck in their pursuit of Bridges, they could pivot to other targets with similar skill sets. Paul George and OG Anunoby would make a lot of sense on Houston’s roster, but both will be free agents and are unlikely to choose Houston over strong alternatives in Los Angeles, New York, and/or Philadelphia. Brandon Ingram is expected to be available via trade, though he’s not the kind of defensive stopper the Rockets would ideally want.

The most intriguing non-Bridges trade candidate for Houston’s purposes might be Jerami Grant. The Trail Blazers have shown little interest in moving him so far, but given how far away they are from contention, they’d be wise to listen to offers — and the Rockets could make a good one. Bruce Brown and Dorian Finney-Smith are among the lower-level trade candidates who could be fits in Houston.

The Rockets can afford to be patient if no good opportunities arise on the trade market this summer, circling back to consider their options at the 2025 trade deadline. By that time, they may get a better idea of what they have in Tari Eason, a 23-year-old wing whose career got off to a promising start before his sophomore season ended after just 22 games due to left leg surgery. It’s impossible to predict what sort of trajectory Eason’s career might follow coming off a major injury and based on such a small sample, but his three-and-D upside is real. In a best-case scenario, he develops into exactly the kind of player the Rockets are currently eyeing on the trade market.

Houston also has an opportunity to land a future impact player using the No. 3 overall pick, assuming it’s not included in a trade. As we’ve noted repeatedly, this year’s draft class is considered weak, but the Rockets don’t need to land a franchise player with that pick — turning it into another above-average rotation player would be a success. Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard would be an intriguing option for a Rockets team in need of shooting. Houston finished 23rd in the NBA last season with a 35.2% conversion rate on three-pointers, while Sheppard knocked down an incredible 52.1% in his freshman year.

Whether or not the Rockets add shooting in the draft or via trade, they’ll be in position to do so on the free agent market using the MLE. Caleb Martin, Derrick Jones, Naji Marshall, and Isaac Okoro are among the potential three-and-D free agent wings in the mid-level range to keep an eye on for Houston.

Finally, while the Rockets can wait a year on this front if they need to, it’s worth noting that Sengun and Green will both be eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason. Neither situation is clear-cut. Sengun had an awesome third year, but Houston played some of its best basketball down the stretch without him, and the team hasn’t yet gotten a chance to see how effective he can be alongside a more traditional starting center like Adams.

As for Green, he was terrific during the season’s final few weeks, but was that enough for the Rockets to feel comfortable making a massive financial commitment to him? Before closing out the year by averaging 24.5 points and 4.0 assists per game on .454/.373/.808 shooting in his final 24 games, Green had put up 17.6 PPG and 3.4 APG on .406/.308/.802 shooting in his first 58 contests.

Unless they can get him to agree to a relatively team-friendly rate well below the max, the Rockets may want to see a little more from Green in terms of scoring efficiency and defense. Both he and Sengun would be restricted free agents in 2025 if they don’t sign extensions this offseason.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jock Landale ($8,000,000)
    • Landale’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 29.
  • Total: $8,000,000

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Jeff Green ($8,000,000): Non-Bird rights
    • Green’s salary would remain non-guaranteed until July 11 if his option is exercised.
  • Jae’Sean Tate ($7,565,217): Bird rights
    • Tate’s cap hit includes a $7,065,217 base salary and $500,000 in likely incentives.
  • Total: $15,565,217

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 3 overall pick ($10,128,480 cap hold)
  • No. 44 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $10,128,480

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Steven Adams (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Jalen Green (rookie scale)
  • Alperen Sengun (rookie scale)
  • Jae’Sean Tate (veteran)
    • Team option must be exercised.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Rockets project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $4,510,000
    • Expires on October 17.
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Hoops Rumors Glossary: July Moratorium

June 5th, 2024 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

NBA free agents come off the board in rapid succession as soon as the league-wide negotiating period opens on June 30 at 6:00 pm Eastern time. However, most of those deals can’t become official right away, due to what’s known in the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement as the “moratorium period.” We know it colloquially as the July moratorium.

The July moratorium – which lasts from 12:01 am Eastern time on July 1 until 12:00 pm on July 6 – essentially puts a freeze on most transactions for several days at the start of the new league year. NBA free agents are allowed to negotiate with clubs during the moratorium, and they can agree to terms on new contracts, but they are unable to officially sign new deals until the moratorium ends. The same goes for trades — two teams can agree to terms on a deal, but can’t formally put it through until at least July 6.

While nearly every agreement reached during the July moratorium eventually gets finalized, the unofficial nature of those initial deals can occasionally wreak havoc on the league’s free agent market.

DeAndre Jordan‘s 2015 free agency isn’t the only example of this, but it’s certainly the most memorable one from the last decade. Jordan initially agreed to terms with the Mavericks during the July moratorium, but before the moratorium ended and the two sides could make it official, the Clippers changed Jordan’s mind and convinced him to re-sign with L.A.

Because Jordan and the Mavs had only reached an informal verbal agreement, there was nothing Dallas could do to stop him from reversing course during the moratorium. Still, this sort of about-face is rare, as it can result in fractured relationships between players, agents, and teams.

While most NBA transactions can’t be completed during the moratorium, there are several exceptions to that rule. The following moves are permitted between July 1 and July 6:

  • A team can sign a first-round draft pick to his rookie scale contract.
  • A team can sign a second-round draft pick using the second-round pick exception.
  • A team can sign a player to a one- or two-year minimum-salary contract.
  • A restricted free agent can sign a qualifying offer from his current team.
  • A restricted free agent can sign a five-year, fully guaranteed maximum-salary contract with his current team.
  • A restricted free agent can sign an offer sheet with a new team; the one-day matching period would begin once the moratorium ends.
  • A team can sign a player to a two-way contract, convert a two-way contract into a standard NBA deal, or convert an Exhibit 10 deal into a two-way contract.
  • A team can waive a player or claim a player off waivers.
  • A team can exercise its third- or fourth-year team option on a rookie scale contract.
  • A second-round pick can accept a required tender (a one-year contract offer) from his team.

Under older Collective Bargaining Agreements, the NBA finalized the salary cap at some point during the July moratorium, and the new cap would take effect once the moratorium ended. However, the current CBA calls for the salary cap for the new league year to be set before the start of July, with the new figure going into effect immediately on July 1. This gives teams more clarity on exactly how much room they have available as they negotiate with free agents during the moratorium.

Several years ago, the NBA moved the start of its free agency negotiating period forward by six hours, opening that window at 6:00 pm ET on June 30 instead of at 12:01 am ET on July 1. Although the July moratorium doesn’t technically begin until July 1, free agents who reach agreements quickly can’t officially sign on June 30, since their old contracts haven’t technically expired yet. That rule will also apply this year to free agents who reach agreements with their own teams during the exclusive negotiating period between the end of the NBA Finals and June 30.

However, if an extension-eligible veteran agrees to a new deal with his current team, he can officially complete that extension during that six-hour period on June 30, before the moratorium goes into effect — Thaddeus Young (Raptors) and Gary Harris (Magic) took this route in 2022, formally finalizing their new contracts as extensions on the evening of June 30 before the moratorium period began.

Finally, it’s worth noting that while we refer to this period at the start of free agency as the “July” moratorium, it doesn’t always take place in July. For instance, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the moratorium period instead occurred in November in 2020 and in August in 2021.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years.

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Poll: Who Will Win 2024 NBA Finals?

June 5th, 2024 at 10:15am CST by Luke Adams

Based on what we’ve seen to this point in the 2023/24 NBA season, we have little reason to view the Celtics as anything but strong favorites entering the NBA Finals. Betting website BetOnline.ag agrees, listing them at -220 to win the series.

Boston finished the regular season with a 64-18 record, seven games ahead of any other team in the NBA, 14 games ahead of any other Eastern Conference team, and 14 games ahead of the Mavericks.

Only 21 teams in NBA history have won more games in a single regular season than the Celtics did this year, and 15 of those clubs won championships.

Only two teams in league history have had a higher regular season net rating (+11.7) than the Celtics did in 2023/24, and both of those teams (the 1996 and 1997 Bulls) won titles.

None of this year’s playoff teams has a better postseason record (12-2) or net rating (+10.8) than the Celtics. By comparison, the Mavericks are at 12-5 and +4.1.

So what’s the case against the Celtics? Well, there are a few factors to consider with Game 1 set to tip off on Thursday.

For one, will the Celtics have a healthy Kristaps Porzingis? The big man intends to suit up on Thursday, barring a setback, but he admitted to reporters on Tuesday that he’s not sure whether he’s 100% after being sidelined for approximately five weeks due to a calf strain that forced him to miss two full rounds of the playoffs.

If Porzingis is unavailable or unable to perform at his usual level, it would reduce the Celtics’ offensive options and limit their ability to protect the rim on defense. The Mavericks have thrived this postseason in part by letting centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively hang out near the basket to defend the paint, allowing rival big men to let it fly from beyond the arc. That would be a more difficult strategy to deploy vs. Boston if Porzingis (who made 37.5% of 5.1 threes per game this season) is back in form.

The more difficult path the Mavericks traveled to reach the NBA Finals may be another point in their favor. None of the teams the Celtics defeated en route to the Finals had a top-10 record or a top-nine net rating during the regular season, and all three were missing their best players for part or all of the series vs. Boston (Jimmy Butler for Miami, Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland, and Tyrese Haliburton for Indiana).

Dallas, on the other hand, ran through three of the Western Conference’s top four seeds, knocking off a Clippers team that ranked seventh in net rating during the regular season before going on to upset the Thunder (No. 2 in net rating) and Timberwolves (No. 3). The Mavs weren’t supposed to make it this far, which means they’re essentially playing with house money at this point, whereas the Celtics – following a series of playoff letdowns in recent years – are in championship-or-bust mode and may be feeling more pressure.

Finally, while the Celtics had the strongest, most well-rounded starting lineup of any NBA team this season, the Mavericks showed in the Western Conference finals vs. Minnesota that if their stars – Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving – are the best players on the court, they can get enough from their role players to beat a team with a more talented supporting cast. Boston will have plenty of talented defenders to throw at Doncic and Irving, including Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, but if the Mavs’ star guards can outplay Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they’ll have a chance.

We want to know what you think. Are there enough compelling reasons to believe the Mavericks can pull off the upset and become the NBA’s 2024 champions, or will Boston cap off a dominant season by winning its record-setting 18th title?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

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Community Shootaround: Pistons’ Offseason

June 3rd, 2024 at 8:21pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Trajan Langdon, the Pistons‘ new president of basketball operations, has an enormous task ahead of him.

The Pistons were supposed to turn the corner this season and show marked improvement. Instead, they smashed into a brick wall, setting a single-season record for most consecutive losses and finishing with the league’s worst record. Adding to their misery, they dropped from the top spot to No. 5 in the draft lottery.

Troy Weaver’s four-year regime as general manager was a disaster. The Pistons won the lottery in 2021 and drafted Cade Cunningham, the only player on the roster with All-Star potential. Otherwise, his personnel moves only made a bad situation worse.

Langdon has been tasked with building a roster around Cunningham to maximize his talents. That means some serious evaluations of other recent first-round picks – Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart and Marcus Sasser – on the roster. All of those players have shown talent to some degree but none are surefire starters on a quality team.

Langdon also has some decisions to make regarding restricted free agent Simone Fontecchio and Quentin Grimes, who is extension-eligible as he enters a contract year. It’s generally assumed the club will retain Fontecchio, who provided much-needed outside shooting after he was acquired from Utah, as long he doesn’t receive an overly generous offer sheet. Grimes, who barely played after being acquired from the Knicks due to injuries, is a bigger question mark.

The good news is the Pistons will have plenty of cap room – projected around $60MM – to spend on free agents and facilitate trades. The fact they still owe the Knicks a first-round pick hampers their ability to include draft assets in deals.

Another obvious issue is coach Monty Williams, who still has five years left on his contract. Langdon apparently has the leeway to hire another coach, but owner Tom Gores might not want to eat that much money unless Langdon has someone specific in mind who can turn things around quickly.

And that’s what makes the new president’s job even more difficult. The organization and its fans are tired of losing and don’t want to go through another long rebuilding process to see some positive results. Yet he inherits a roster that looked overmatched against its opponents on a regular basis.

That brings us to our topic of the day: What kind of moves should Langdon make this offseason to turn around the team’s fortunes? What type of players should he target in free agency and trades and which young players on his roster should he be willing to deal? Should he retain Williams or look for another coach?

Please take to the comments section to weigh on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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