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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: San Antonio Spurs

May 25th, 2020 at 3:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

With or without the NBA’s hiatus, the Spurs‘ 22-year postseason streak was likely going to come to an end this year, as the team appears headed to the draft lottery for the first time since 1997.

The last time San Antonio bottomed out, the team lucked into Tim Duncan, but a top draft pick is a long shot for this year’s squad, and there doesn’t appear to be a surefire franchise player in the 2020 draft class anyway. The Spurs probably shouldn’t rely on free agency to turn things around either — the team won’t have much spending flexibility if DeMar DeRozan exercises his $27MM+ player option.

Here’s where things stand for the Spurs financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Spurs’ cap outlook for 2020/21 is one of the trickiest to project. With approximately $88.6MM locked in for eight guaranteed contracts and a draft pick, San Antonio doesn’t initially appear to be in terrible shape financially. But if DeRozan opts in, it would increase the club’s guaranteed commitments to $116MM+. And that’s before accounting for the possibility of re-signing players like Poeltl and/or Forbes and filling out the rest of the roster.

There have been rumblings that DeRozan might not be thrilled with his current situation, so he’s not a stone-cold lock to opt in. But given the league’s financial outlook, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t do so. My guess is that he’ll ultimately pick up that option and that the Spurs will try to re-sign at least one of Poeltl or Forbes — perhaps both if the team can get them at reasonable prices or if money can be shed elsewhere.

With so many of their contracts set to expire in 2021, the Spurs won’t do anything rash to cut costs, but they aren’t going to go into the tax for the current roster either. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle this offseason, especially if the cap doesn’t increase at all.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 6
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,623,000 6

Footnotes

  1. Lyles’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 18.
  2. Metu’s new salary guarantee date is unknown.
  3. The cap hold for this pick will depend on where it ultimately falls in the lottery. Currently, the Spurs rank 11th in the lottery standings.
  4. The cap holds for Cunningham, Lauvergne, Lee, Motiejunas, Pondexter, Costello, Hilliard, and Moore remain on the Spurs’ books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2019/20. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. The 26th overall pick in 2015, Milutinov has yet to sign his rookie scale contract. His cap hold will remain on the Spurs’ books unless the team receives permission to remove it, which would ensure Milutinov won’t be signed in 2020/21.
  6. These are projected values. If the Spurs’ team salary continues to increase, they may be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,718,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Should NBA Use 1-16 Seeding For 2020 Playoffs?

May 25th, 2020 at 11:42am CST by Luke Adams

While the idea has yet to gain a ton of momentum, there has been talk in recent years about the idea of the NBA re-seeding its playoff teams once the postseason begins, ranking those clubs first through 16th based on overall records, regardless of conference.

For instance, the Clippers have the second-best record in the West this year, but the fourth-best mark in the NBA, so they’d be the No. 4 seed. The Sixers, sixth in the East, would become a No. 12 seed, reflecting their place in the overall NBA standings.

Such a change would help even the playing field if one conference is significantly stronger than the other, as was the case for the Western Conference for much of the 2010s. However, it hasn’t really gained steam due to travel concerns and because it would require approval from the NBA’s Board of Governors — generally, team owners in the weaker conference have a vested interest in keeping the format as is.

However, as the NBA works toward potentially resuming its 2019/20 season, the league could have a unique opportunity to experiment this summer. Two important factors would work in favor of testing the idea of re-seeding playoff teams using a 1-16 system:

  1. If the NBA resumes play in a single bubble location (ie. Orlando), no travel would be required.
  2. Eight of the current top 16 teams in the NBA standings are in the Western Conference, while eight are in the East. In other words, if the playoff seeding is tweaked, no current lottery team would make the postseason and no current playoff team would fall out.

During an appearance today on ESPN’s Get Up (video link), Brian Windhorst said he thinks there’s a real chance the NBA could go straight to the postseason if and when it returns, which could open the door for re-seeding the 16 playoff teams. According to Windhorst, league commissioner Adam Silver has long been interested in that concept.

As Windhorst notes, it remains unlikely that two-thirds of the NBA’s owners would be on board with such a format change for the long term. And even this season, there would likely be a number of teams in the East opposed to tweaking the format, since it would make their playoff draw a whole lot more challenging.

Still, if ever there was a time for owners to get on board with a one-off experiment, this would be the year.

Here’s what the playoffs would look like if the teams were re-seeded, regardless of conference, based on their current records:

First side of bracket:

  • Bucks (1) vs. Magic (16)
  • Heat (8) vs. Thunder (9)
  • Clippers (4) vs. Mavericks (13)
  • Celtics (5) vs. Sixers (12)

Second side of bracket:

  • Lakers (2) vs. Nets (15)
  • Jazz (7) vs. Rockets (10)
  • Raptors (3) vs. Grizzlies (14)
  • Nuggets (6) vs. Pacers (11)

And as a reminder, here’s what the playoffs would look like under the usual format:

Eastern Conference:

  • Bucks (1) vs. Magic (8)
  • Heat (4) vs. Pacers (5)
  • Raptors (2) vs. Nets (7)
  • Celtics (3) vs. Sixers (6)

Western Conference:

  • Lakers (1) vs. Grizzlies (8)
  • Jazz (4) vs. Thunder (5)
  • Clippers (2) vs. Mavericks (7)
  • Nuggets (3) vs. Rockets (6)

While a handful of first-round matchups would be the same regardless of the format the NBA uses, the re-seeding approach would create a handful of interesting inter-conference series, including Heat vs. Thunder, Raptors vs. Grizzlies, Nuggets vs. Pacers, and Lakers vs. Nets.

Things could get very interesting in the second and third rounds of a 1-16 format, with the Clippers potentially having to go through the Celtics and the Bucks before perhaps facing the Lakers in the Finals. The Lakers, on the other hand, might play the winner of a Raptors/Nuggets showdown for the right to advance to the Finals.

What do you think? Is re-seeding the playoff teams a worthwhile experiment, given this year’s unusual circumstances? Or would it be in the NBA’s best interest to stick to its usual postseason format, separating the East and the West until the Finals?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Greg Whittington Attracting NBA Interest

May 24th, 2020 at 5:05pm CST by JD Shaw

Free agent forward Greg Whittington has received interest from multiple high-level NBA teams throughout the year, his agent told Hoops Rumors.

Whittington impressed scouts during a shortened campaign with Turkish team Galatasaray in the EuroCup, playing against some of the toughest competition overseas. He posted averages of 12.4 points and 4.9 rebounds per game in 14 Turkish League contests, shooting 52.8% from 3-point range.

“Greg’s put in the work, and now he knows he’s graduated to being able to pick his next opportunity,” agent Jerry Dianis said. “He can now cherry-pick his next opportunity, and obviously he has some high-level NBA and international interest. I think Greg is going to be the most coveted free agent outside of the NBA because of his versatility and ability to shoot the ball.”

Whittington also averaged 18.4 points per game for Hapoel Gilboa Galil in Israel the season before, shooting 41.5% from deep in 30 contests while leading the country in rebounding (9.6 per contest). His versatility and unselfishness are two major reasons why he’s registered NBA interest, with the 27-year-old also being named forward of the year this season.

Whittington, a lengthy 6’9″ combo forward, went undrafted in 2015 after spending two seasons at Georgetown. He joined the Heat for summer league and earned a training camp deal with the team that fall, spending the rest of the season in the NBA G League. He’s since made stops in Australia, Sioux Falls, Japan and Israel.

Whittington’s consistent play has made him a strong candidate for an NBA contract, though all transactions across the league remain on hold amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Several teams around the association are actively preparing for a return to action, possibly as early as July. The season was suspended indefinitely on March 11.

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Poll: Should The NBA Bring Back All 30 Teams?

May 22nd, 2020 at 9:23pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The NBA apparently wants to bring back as many of its 30 teams as possible, provided that the league moves forward with tentative plans for a resumption of league play later this summer. The spread of the novel coronavirus caused league commissioner Adam Silver to halt the 2019/20 season on March 11. But should every team return, even the 14 likely lottery squads?

The most popular proposed plan is resuming play in one or two “bubble” sites, with Walt Disney World in Orlando emerging as the current front-runner, starting around mid-July. When play was paused in March, all teams had played between 63 and 67 of the regular season’s standard 82 games.

The notion of adding an extra 14 teams’ worth of players, team personnel and loved ones to a mass population that already includes 16 teams (with approximately 35 people traveling per each team), on top of referees and a broadcast media presence, at a moment in time when the highly-contagious COVID-19 is still incurable and spreading rampantly amidst close contact feels superfluously dangerous.

With a significant majority of the NBA’s games already having been played, why not limit the “bubble” head count with just the 16 teams sporting the best records when league play stopped?

If the league is concerned about teams being rusty due to the extended time off (at least four months by the earliest possible projections), perhaps the teams present could participate in something akin to a five-game tune-up “preseason” for two weeks. That way, lottery-bound teams or teams with the faintest of hopes at a playoff berth would not be taking undue extra risk by traveling to the “bubble” cities and mingling with the other teams.

The higher the head count, the higher the hypothetical risk of a COVID-19 spread among the players, coaches, and other traveling team personnel present. In a new piece, Steve Popper of Newsday also voiced his concern that including all 30 teams in an un-paused season was an unnecessary exercise. The best way to minimize risk is to keep the pool in a potential “bubble” city as finite as possible.

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Sacramento Kings

May 22nd, 2020 at 4:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

The Kings‘ 39-43 performance in 2018/19 qualified as a breakthrough. It was the team’s best record in 13 years, after all. Sacramento didn’t take another step forward in ’19/20, but hung around the outskirts of the playoff race even as former No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III missed most of the season and other key contributors – like De’Aaron Fox and Richaun Holmes – were sidelined with injuries for extended stretches.

Continued development from young players like Fox and Bagley will be crucial as the Kings look to make the leap from frisky lottery team to solid playoff contender. However, the team’s young core will start getting more expensive going forward, beginning with Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic in 2020/21.

Here’s where things stand for the Kings financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Parker will likely opt in, so adding his salary and the cap hold for Sacramento’s first-round pick increases the club’s guaranteed commitments to about $94MM for nine roster spots. It’s safe to assume the Kings will do all they can to re-sign Bogdanovic too, so they’ll operate as an over-the-cap team.

A deadline deal that sent Dewayne Dedmon to Atlanta ensured that the Kings should have the flexibility to negotiate a market-value deal – or match any reasonable offer sheet – for Bogdanovic without approaching the luxury tax line. As such, Sacramento should have the non-taxpayer mid-level and bi-annual exceptions at its disposal this offseason, though it might not make sense to use both exceptions in full — especially if the team wants to retain Bjelica, Bazemore, or any of its other free agents.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,623,000 3
  • Trade exception: $2,673,334 (expires 2/8/21)

Footnotes

  1. Bjelica’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 17.
  2. The Kings can’t offer Giles a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his rookie scale team option for 2020/21 was declined.
  3. These are projected values. If team salary gets high enough, it’s possible the Kings would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,718,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020/21 NBA Salary Cap Preview Series

May 22nd, 2020 at 1:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Even as it remains unclear when exactly the 2020 NBA offseason will happen, Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 teams, breaking down the guaranteed salaries, non-guaranteed salaries, options, free agents, and cap holds on each club’s books.

Due to the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the salary cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that the cap for next season will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, and the numbers in our previews reflect that. However, it’s entirely possible next year’s cap will end up higher or even lower than that.

You can find the link to your favorite team’s offseason salary cap digest below. You can find this post anytime on the right-hand sidebar of our desktop site under “Hoops Rumors Features,” or under “Features” in our mobile menu.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

May 21st, 2020 at 6:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

After arguably overachieving in 2018/29 by winning 53 games and earning a trip to the Western Conference Finals, the Trail Blazers came back to earth in 2019/20. Plagued by some bad injury luck that resulted in Jusuf Nurkic, Rodney Hood, and Zach Collins missing nearly the entire season, Portland was just 29-37 when the NBA went on hiatus.

Fortunately, the team will finally be out from under its ill-advised 2016 spending spree going forward. Although that doesn’t mean that the Blazers will gain any cap room during the 2020 offseason, it does mean that the club probably won’t be flirting with the tax anymore and should have a little extra spending flexibility going forward.

Here’s where things stand for the Trail Blazers financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Trevor Ariza ($11,000,000) 1
  • Total: $11,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we add the cap hold for their first-round pick to their guaranteed salaries and assume Hood and Hezonja opt in, the Blazers will be up near $105MM in commitments for 10 roster spots, eliminating the possibility of cap room.

Portland’s spending ability from there will depend in large part on what the club does with Ariza and Whiteside. Both veterans played well for the Blazers, but it may not make sense to guarantee Ariza’s $12.8MM salary or to pay market value to re-sign Whiteside with Nurkic due back. If neither player returns, the team would be able to comfortably use its full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception without nearing the tax line. If even one is retained, using those exceptions in full would be more challenging.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 4
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,623,000 4
  • Trade exception: $7,069,662 (expires 1/21/21)
  • Trade exception: $2,338,847 (expires 2/8/21)
  • Trade exception: $1,790,993 (expires 7/8/20)

Footnotes

  1. Ariza’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 18.
  2. Whiteside’s cap hold will be equivalent to 30% of the 2020/21 salary cap.
  3. The Trail Blazers can’t offer Swanigan a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since his rookie scale team option for 2020/21 was declined.
  4. These are projected values. If team salary gets high enough, it’s possible the Trail Blazers would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,718,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Top Prospect In 2020 NBA Draft

May 21st, 2020 at 1:52pm CST by Luke Adams

When Zion Williamson went first overall in the 2019 NBA draft, it came as no surprise — he had been considered the top prospect in last year’s class for months, well before we knew which team would get the No. 1 pick. For the most part, the same can be said of other recent top picks like Anthony Davis (2012), Karl-Anthony Towns (2015), and perhaps even Markelle Fultz (2017).

On the other hand, some drafts have two or three prospects in the top tier. A number of draft experts believed Luka Doncic should be picked ahead of Deandre Ayton in 2018. In 2016, the debate over the No. 1 pick was between Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram.

The 2020 draft class, however, looks most similar to 2013’s group. That year, Nerlens Noel, Alex Len, Ben McLemore, and Victor Oladipo were among the many players considered candidates to be drafted first overall. The Cavaliers didn’t take anyone from that group, opting instead for Anthony Bennett.

2020’s similarities to 2013’s draft class doesn’t mean that this year’s first overall pick will have a Bennett-esque NBA career, but so far, we have little clarity on which player might be the first one off the board. LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman, Anthony Edwards, Obi Toppin, and Killian Hayes are among the players who have shown up atop various experts’ draft rankings, with no consensus on which player most NBA teams favor.

In an attempt to gauge which way NBA teams are leaning, Jeff Goodman of Stadium anonymously polled 35 team executives and found that 20 of them picked Wiseman as the top player in this year’s class. Of course, the big man played just three games for Memphis in the fall before leaving the program due to eligibility issues, so evaluators and scouts didn’t get much of a look at him at the college level. And even those that NBA execs who favor Wiseman don’t sound particularly enthusiastic about their choice.

“I wouldn’t even want the No. 1 pick,” one NBA general manager told Goodman. “If I have it, I’m trying like hell to trade it.”

“It’s not an easy decision,” another GM offered. “(But) even though the NBA doesn’t value bigs like it used to, there just aren’t a lot of seven-footers who can run and jump like Wiseman can out there.”

While Wiseman received the majority of the votes in Goodman’s poll, Edwards (10 votes), Ball (four), and Toppin (one) also had supporters. The only real consensus? It won’t be an easy decision for whichever team wins this year’s draft lottery.

“This is an underwhelming draft at the top,” one high-ranking executive told Goodman. “It’s as difficult for the No. 1 pick as I’ve seen in a long time.”

This year’s top choice may ultimately come down to the specific needs and preferences of the team that wins the lottery. But in our poll today, we want you to put positional needs aside and assume all other factors are equal. In that scenario, which of this year’s prospects would you be most comfortable drafting first overall?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Phoenix Suns

May 19th, 2020 at 4:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

The Suns’ .400 winning percentage in 2019/20 technically represents the organization’s best mark since 2014/15. Still, the team – which had a 26-39 record when the NBA suspended its season – has yet to take a major step forward in its rebuild.

Continued development from Booker, Ayton, and Phoenix’s other young players will be the most important factor in Phoenix’s return to playoff contention. Still, there could be another path to improvement this offseason, as the Suns may be one of the NBA’s only teams with cap room, depending on what they decide to do with Dario Saric and Aron Baynes.

Here’s where things stand for the Suns financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume the Suns want to maximize their cap room, it would mean they’ll renounce at least Saric and Baynes while also turning down their team option on Kaminsky. In that scenario, the team could open up in the neighborhood of $16-19MM in space even if the cap doesn’t increase.

That’s not an unrealistic path for Phoenix, especially if the club has its eye on one or two specific free agent targets. However, it also wouldn’t be surprising if the Suns attempt to retain one or more of the veterans noted above, particularly Saric. That approach would likely mean operating as an over-the-cap team and gaining access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,767,000 3

Footnotes

  1. Okobo’s new salary guarantee date is unknown.
  2. The cap hold for this pick will depend on where it ultimately falls in the lottery. Currently, the Suns rank 10th in the lottery standings.
  3. This is a projected value. If the Suns operate as an over-the-cap team, they’d instead have access to have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,258,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,623,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Re-Examining NBA Player Options For 2020/21

May 19th, 2020 at 3:26pm CST by Luke Adams

Following the NBA’s salary cap spike four years ago, just eight of 53 veterans who held player options on their contracts in 2016 and 2017 actually exercised those options — the other 45 opted out in search of a larger and/or longer-term deal.

However, the pendulum has swung back in the other direction over the last couple years. Of the 55 vets who held player options in 2018 and 2019, just 20 opted out, with the rest choosing security and putting off their free agency by a year.

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 may represent one of the most extreme years in recent memory in terms of option decisions. Even with the NBA’s salary cap projected to increase to $115MM, less than one third of the league’s teams was expected to open up cap room. If the cap instead stays level – or declines – those teams will have even less flexibility. Suddenly, those option years may look a whole lot more appealing to players than trying to secure a big payday on the open market.

ESPN cap guru Bobby Marks recently predicted to Marc Berman of The New York Post that all 29 players with options for 2020/21 will pick them up. Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports conveyed a similar sentiment this morning, tweeting that he expects at least 27 of those players to opt in.

Are those predictions realistic? Let’s take a closer look at the NBA’s player options for 2020/21, dividing them up into four separate categories…

Group 1: The options that look too good to pass up

In all likelihood, these players would have opted in for 2020/21 regardless of whether or not the NBA’s revenue streams were disrupted. In each of these cases, the player’s option salary outweighs his likely value on the open market, either due to performance or injury. They look like safe bets to exercise their options for next season.

Group 2: The minimum-salary options

Players with minimum-salary options often turn them down even if they’re not sure they can get more than the minimum on their next deal, since there’s little downside. However, if the cap doesn’t increase, these players would be better off with their option salaries, which will be more lucrative than the minimum salary on a new contract. Rondo, for example, would make $2,564,753 next season if he opts out and signs a new minimum deal, if the cap stays at the same level.

In other words, the only way it would make sense for anyone in this group to opt out is if he felt confident in his chances of getting an offer above the minimum as a free agent. Maybe that’ll be the case for a solid rotation player like Matthews or Rivers, but it wouldn’t be a shock if all six of these guys opt in.

Group 3: It may not be worth rolling the dice in free agency

In a typical year, many of these players would likely think long and hard about opting out — even if they weren’t sure whether they’d be able to top their 2020/21 salaries in free agency, there would be a good chance of earning more overall money by signing a new, longer-term deal. For instance, Hayward won’t get any offers with a starting salary of $34MM, but a three- or four-year deal with a lesser annual salary could have been a win-win for him and the Celtics.

With the cap in flux though, these 11 players may be better off picking up their options and trying their luck on the 2021 free agent market. That’s especially true if they’re seeking an offer greater than the mid-level, like Drummond, Fournier, Hardaway, and Hayward would be. There just won’t be that many teams with both the desire and the necessary cap room to spend big on veteran free agents.

I wouldn’t consider most of these players locks to opt in, but I think they’re probably more likely than not to do so.

Group 4: Potential wild cards

Unless the salary cap really plummets, it still makes sense for Davis to opt out. The cap would have to dip below $96MM for his option salary to be worth more than the 30% max he’d earn as a free agent. Still, it seems unlikely that he’ll ink a long-term contract this offseason. A one-year guarantee with a second-year player option is probably his best bet for maximizing his earnings going forward.

DeRozan was the second player identified by Keith Smith as a candidate to opt out since it’s unclear whether or not he’s happy in San Antonio. A March report indicated the Spurs guard isn’t thrilled with his current situation, while another suggested he plans to opt out if he doesn’t receive a contract extension.

Those reports both came the week the NBA season was suspended, so even if they were accurate, it’s possible DeRozan’s mindset has changed over the last couple months. If not for the rumors about his potential dissatisfaction, I’d place him in Group 3 and assume he’d be opting in.

As for Grant, it’s possible he’ll play it safe and pick up his option, but even given a cap crunch, I don’t think there will be a shortage of teams willing to do a longer-term with a slightly higher average annual value than his $9.3MM option. If he opts in, he’d probably do so banking on the idea of getting more lucrative multiyear offers in 2021.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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