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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Qualifying Offers

May 7th, 2020 at 10:56am CST by Luke Adams

Players eligible for restricted free agency don’t become restricted free agents by default. In order to make a player a restricted free agent, a team must extend a qualifying offer to him — a player who doesn’t receive one becomes an unrestricted free agent instead.

The qualifying offer, which is essentially just a one-year contract offer, varies in amount depending on a player’s service time and previous contract status.

If a player reaches free agency with three or fewer years of NBA service time under his belt, his qualifying offer is worth 125% of his prior salary, or his minimum salary plus $200K, whichever is greater.

For instance, after earning $1,416,852 this season, Grizzlies guard De’Anthony Melton will be eligible for a qualifying offer worth a projected $1,907,576 this offseason, based on a $115MM cap — that’s calculated by adding $200,000 to his projected minimum salary for 2020/21 ($1,707,576).

The exact value of Melton’s qualifying offer will depend on where exactly the ’20/21 salary cap ends up, since minimum salary increase or decrease at the same rate as the cap. If the cap drops significantly, it’s possible he’d instead receive a QO worth $1,771,065 (125% of his previous salary).

Bogdan Bogdanovic is one example of a player whose qualifying offer will be 125% of his previous salary no matter where the cap lands. Bogdanovic is earning $8,529,386 in 2019/20, far above the minimum, so the Kings guard will receive a qualifying offer worth 125% of that figure: $10,661,733.

The qualifying offer for a former first-round pick coming off his rookie scale contract is determined by his draft position. The qualifying offer for a first overall pick is 130% of his fourth-year salary, while for a 30th overall pick it’s 150% of his previous salary — QOs for the rest of the first-rounders fall somewhere in between. The full first-round scale for the draft class of 2016, whose first-rounders will be hitting free agency this summer, can be found here, courtesy of RealGM.

Here are a pair of examples for this offseason: 2016’s second overall pick, Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram, is coming off a fourth-year salary of $7,265,485, so he must be extended a qualifying offer of $9,481,458 (a 30.5% increase) to become a restricted free agent. Meanwhile, the 19th overall pick, Timberwolves guard Malik Beasley, will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $3,895,424, a 42.6% increase on this season’s $2,731,714 salary.

A wrinkle in the Collective Bargaining Agreement complicates matters for some RFAs-to-be, since a player’s previous usage can impact the amount of his qualifying offer. Certain players who meet – or fail to meet – the “starter criteria,” which we break down in a separate glossary entry, become eligible for higher or lower qualifying offers. Here’s how the starter criteria affects QOs:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
    • Note: For the summer of 2020, the value of this QO will be $4,642,800.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
    • Note: For the summer of 2020, the value of this QO will be $5,087,871.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.
    • Note: For the summer of 2020, the value of this QO will be $3,752,338.

Spurs big man Jakob Poeltl is one example of a player who falls into the first group, since he didn’t meet the starter criteria this year. The No. 9 overall pick in 2016, Poeltl will be eligible this offseason for a QO worth $4,642,800 instead of $5,087,871. Conversely, Suns forward Dario Saric (a former No. 12 overall pick) met the starter criteria and will be eligible for a QO worth $5,087,871 instead of $4,791,213.

A qualifying offer is designed to give a player’s team the right of first refusal. Because the qualifying offer acts as the first formal contract offer a free agent receives, his team then receives the option to match any offer sheet the player signs with another club.

A player can also accept his qualifying offer, if he so chooses. He then plays the following season on a one-year contract worth the amount of the QO, and becomes an unrestricted free agent at season’s end if he has at least four years of NBA experience. A player can go this route if he wants to hit unrestricted free agency as early as possible, or if he feels like the QO is the best offer he’ll receive. Accepting the qualifying offer also gives a player the right to veto trades for the season.

No restricted free agents accepted their qualifying offers during the 2019 offseason, but Rodney Hood did so with the Cavaliers in 2018. When Cleveland agreed to send him to the Trail Blazers prior to the 2019 trade deadline, Hood had to give his consent to be dealt, which he did.

Finally, while the details outlined above apply to players on standard NBA contracts who are eligible for restricted free agency, a different set of rules applies to players coming off two-way contracts. For most of those players, the qualifying offer would be equivalent to a one-year, two-way salary, with $50K guaranteed.

If a player coming off a two-way contract is ineligible to sign another one – either because he’s coming off a two-year, two-way deal, he has already been on two-way deals with his current team for at least two seasons, or he has four years of NBA service – his qualifying offer would be a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract. The guarantee on that QO would have to match or exceed what a two-way player would earn in the G League.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

May 6th, 2020 at 11:47am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

After winning an NBA-high 60 games in 2018/19, the Bucks were on pace to blow past that win total in 2019/20 — the team had a league-best 53-12 record when the season was suspended in March.

Of course, this time around, Milwaukee was hoping for a better outcome than last year’s Eastern Conference Finals loss to Toronto. If the season can be resumed, the Bucks’ success in the postseason may well factor into Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s decision on his future, which will in turn significantly impact the organization’s long-term cap outlook.

Here’s where things stand for the Bucks financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With $114MM in guaranteed money already committed to just eight players, the Bucks definitely won’t have cap room during the 2020 offseason, regardless of whether the cap increases beyond its current $109MM figure.

If (Robin) Lopez and Matthews exercise their player options, Ilyasova returns on his non-guaranteed salary, and Milwaukee keeps its first-round pick, the team would be right up against the tax line and would likely be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception rather than having the full MLE or bi-annual exception available.

Depending on where exactly the cap lands, I could see the Bucks parting with Ilyasova to gain some added flexibility. He has played a pretty modest role this season and clearing his $7MM salary would increase the odds of avoiding the tax and possibly even opening up the club’s full MLE, though that still could be a tight fit.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,718,000 2

Footnotes

  1. Ilyasova’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 18.
  2. This is a projected value. If the Bucks’ team salary doesn’t approach the tax apron, they could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,258,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,623,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: 2020 All-Rookie First Team

May 5th, 2020 at 11:53am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s usual award season is in flux in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Under normal circumstances, the regular season would be over by this point and voting would have taken place on the league’s major awards. This year, however, it’s unclear if or when the season will resume after being suspended in March, creating uncertainty about whether players will get any more regular season games to make their cases for award consideration, and about when voting will take place.

Resolving end-of-season awards is hardly the most pressing concern facing the NBA, but while we wait for further updates on the fate of the ’19/20 season, we might as well pass the time with some award-related speculation.

Last month, we asked you to vote on the 15 players who deserved spots on the 2020 All-NBA teams. Now, we’re shifting our focus to the league’s two All-Rookie squads.

While an All-Rookie berth is a less prestigious honor than a spot on an All-NBA team, All-Rookie debates among fans can get heated. After all, clubs like the Knicks, Hornets, or Cavaliers have no chance of getting a player on this year’s All-NBA teams, so fans can focus on making their cases for the likes of RJ Barrett, P.J. Washington, Darius Garland, or Kevin Porter as All-Rookie players.

Additionally, unlike All-NBA voting, All-Rookie teams don’t adhere to positional limits, which means voters – and fans – are free to pick the top 10 players, regardless of whether they’re guards, forwards, or centers. Not having to worry about those restrictions means we’re able to drill down on the question of which 10 rookies were the most valuable.

Do players like Barrett or Garland, who had major roles on lottery teams, deserve spots over guys like Terence Davis or Matisse Thybulle, who played smaller rotation roles and posted more modest numbers on playoff clubs? How about Zion Williamson? Is he a lock for the All-Rookie First Team despite only appearing in 19 games for the Pelicans this season?

You can make your picks below for the five players you believe are worthy of spots on the All-Rookie First Team. We’ve started with a field of 20 players, but if you feel like I’ve omitted anyone who deserves consideration, please mention them in the comments and I’ll add them to our list when we conduct our Second Team vote later this week.

Vote for your All-Rookie First Team below (choose five players), then take to the comment section to explain your choices!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Miami Heat

May 4th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

The 2019/20 season represented a return to form for the Heat, who endured some up-and-down seasons following LeBron James‘ departure in 2014. Prior to the NBA’s hiatus, they were a top-four team in the East with a 41-24 record.

In addition to their success on the court, the Heat also managed to create some major cap flexibility at the trade deadline by moving Dion Waiters and James Johnson in a three-team deal. The trade ensures that Miami could be one of just a handful of teams with cap room this offseason. However, with several of their own free agents to address, the Heat may end up rolling that cap space over to 2021.

Here’s where things stand for the Heat financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

The Heat could go in any number of directions this offseason. Assuming they account for their guaranteed contracts, Nunn and Robinson, Olynyk’s player option (likely to be exercised), and the cap hold for their first-round pick, they could get up to nearly $22MM in room, even if the cap doesn’t increase.

However, with some combination of Dragic, Jones, Crowder, Leonard, Hill, and Haslem likely to be retained, I’d expect Miami to operate as an over-the-cap team this offseason. Assuming those free agents ink one-year deals or modest multiyear pacts, the Heat could maintain enough flexibility to pursue Giannis Antetokounmpo or another star in 2021.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,623,000 3
  • Trade exception: $7,533,867 (expires 2/8/21) 4

Footnotes

  1. Robinson’s new salary guarantee date is unknown.
  2. The cap holds for Babbitt, Mickey, and Wade remain on the Heat’s books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2019/20. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values. If the Heat go under the cap to use room, they’d lose these exceptions, but would gain access to the room exception ($4,767,000). If their team salary approaches the tax apron, it’s possible they’d be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,718,000).
  4. The Heat would lose this exception if they go under the cap to use room.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Top 10 NBA Restricted Free Agents Of 2020

May 4th, 2020 at 11:55am CST by Luke Adams

The 2019 offseason was unusually active in terms of rookie scale extensions, with many of the players who were expected to headline the restricted free agent class in 2020 opting for early long-term security with their own teams. In total, nine players signed rookie scale extensions last summer or fall, including Ben Simmons, Pascal Siakam, Jamal Murray, Jaylen Brown, and Domantas Sabonis.

As a result, 2020’s class of restricted free agents doesn’t look quite as tantalizing as it once did. Still, there are some intriguing names on the list, which is now headlined by a Pelicans player who became a first-time All-Star this year.

As we look ahead to the 2020 NBA offseason – whenever it may come – here’s our early breakdown of the top 10 most notable players expected to reach restricted free agency:

  1. Brandon Ingram, F (Pelicans): If not for Anthony Davis, Ingram would likely be entering the 2020 offseason as the NBA’s top restricted or unrestricted free agent. His breakout year includes career highs in PPG (24.3), RPG (6.3), APG (4.3), 3PT (2.4), among several other categories, as he emerged as New Orleans’ go-to scorer. He’ll likely be in line for a maximum-salary deal or something very close to it.
  2. Bogdan Bogdanovic, G (Kings): A versatile contributor who can score a little, handle the ball, and guard multiple positions, Bogdanovic is the sort of player who could fit in on virtually any team. That makes him valuable, even if his stats (14.5 PPG, 3.2 APG, 3.2 RPG) don’t necessarily jump off the page.
  3. Malik Beasley, G (Timberwolves): After spending most of the season in and out of Denver’s rotation, Beasley took advantage of a new opportunity in Minnesota, averaging 20.7 PPG on .472/.426/.750 shooting in 14 games with the Timberwolves following the trade deadline. It’s a small sample, but Beasley’s impressive month was a timely reminder that he’s capable of being the productive role player we saw in 2018/19 — it also showed he may have some upside beyond that.
  4. De’Anthony Melton, G (Grizzlies): Melton’s counting stats (8.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 3.0 APG) off the bench for Memphis weren’t spectacular, but there are a lot of reasons to like him. He’ll be just 22 years old this offseason, is an impressive, switchable perimeter defender, and played a key role in fueling the Grizzlies’ surprise season — the team had a +6.4 net rating when he was on the court in 2019/20, compared to a -4.2 rating when he sat. After a top RFA tier of Ingram, Bogdanovic, and Beasley, there are several players who could make a case for this spot, but I think Melton is the most intriguing.
  5. Dario Saric, F (Suns): Saric is already on his third NBA team, which usually isn’t a good sign for a player in his fourth NBA season. But he continues to put up solid numbers in a regular role — he has never averaged fewer than 10 points per game and has knocked down 37.2% of his three-point attempts since his rookie season. Stretch fours are coveted assets in today’s NBA, so even though Saric isn’t a great defender, he should draw interest on the open market.
  6. Kris Dunn, G (Bulls): Dunn may never deliver on the upside that made him the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft, but he impressed in a new role this season. Dunn cut back his shot attempts to just 6.7 per game (after averaging 12.0 over the previous two seasons) and focused on becoming one of the league’s very best defensive stoppers on the wing, leading the NBA with 2.9 steals per 36 minutes.
  7. Juan Hernangomez, F (Timberwolves): Like Beasley, Hernangomez got the opportunity to play a regular role and show his value after a deadline deal sent him to Minnesota. He played the best ball of his career during that stretch, with 12.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and a .420 3PT%. I don’t imagine the Timberwolves will let him get away this offseason, even if they face some competition for his services.
  8. Jakob Poeltl, C (Spurs): Poeltl has never played a huge role in the NBA, averaging just 16.6 minutes per game since joining the Spurs in the summer of 2018, but he’s an impressive rebounder and rim protector who brings effort and energy off the bench. While his limited offensive game may hurt him on the open market, a team could certainly do worse than having Poeltl as its backup center.
  9. Torrey Craig, F (Nuggets): Although Craig’s three-point shooting percentage has improved in each of his NBA seasons, he’s still making just 33.0% of his attempts, complicating his offensive role. A more reliable three-pointer would make him a prototypical – and valuable – three-and-D wing, since he’s already arguably the Nuggets’ most reliable perimeter defender.
  10. Luguentz Dort, G/F (Thunder): You could make a case for Raptors big man Chris Boucher or a handful of other players at this spot. I opted for Dort, who is still on a two-way contract, which technically puts him on track for restricted free agency at season’s end (the Thunder could avoid that outcome by negotiating an NBA contract before the end of the regular season, assuming they get a chance). The rookie swingman has become a starter for a playoff team in Oklahoma City, playing impressive defense and making 35.7% of his threes since he entered the starting five.

Disagree with my rankings? Feel like I omitted any worthy RFAs-to-be? Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

May 1st, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

Expected to be one of the NBA’s worst teams entering the season, the Grizzlies greatly exceeded expectations, buoyed by standout rookies Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke. Despite a widespread belief that the team would eventually lose its grip on the No. 8 seed in the West, Memphis had a 3.5-game cushion when the league suspended its season.

While they’ll likely become a playoff team if the season resumes, the Grizzlies remain in rebuilding mode and will use the offseason to continue building around their young core pieces. However, their three-team deadline-day trade for Justise Winslow, Gorgui Dieng, and Dion Waiters will limit their ability to make major moves.

Here’s where things stand for the Grizzlies financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Initially expected to have some cap room this offseason, the Grizzlies sent three players on expiring contracts – Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder, and Solomon Hill – out at the deadline in exchange for Winslow, Dieng, and Waiters, three players earning a combined $43MM in 2020/21.

As a result, Memphis will now enter the offseason operating as an over-the-cap team. However, with $112MM+ committed to 11 guaranteed contracts, the Grizzlies should have plenty of flexibility to fill out their roster without going into tax territory, even if Melton requires a substantial raise on his minimum-salary deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 2
  • Trade exception: $4,736,842 (expires 7/8/20)
  • Trade exception: $4,185,185 (expires 2/8/21)
  • Trade exception: $3,440,000 (expires 7/7/20)
  • Trade exception: $3,126,308 (expires 7/6/20)
  • Trade exception: $1,845,301 (expires 2/8/21)
  • Trade exception: $1,416,852 (expires 7/7/20)
  • Trade exception: $766,959 (expires 7/6/20)

Footnotes

  1. The Grizzlies can’t offer Jackson a starting salary worth more than his cap hold, since they declined his rookie scale team option for 2020/21.
  2. This is a projected value.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Buddy Hield

April 30th, 2020 at 3:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Just over four months ago, Kings sharpshooter Buddy Hield – upset about hardly seeing any fourth-quarter action in a pair of close losses – told reporters there were “trust issues” in Sacramento. Less than a month later, in January, he was removed from the Kings’ starting lineup in favor of Bogdan Bogdanovic. And a few weeks after that, in mid-February, a report from The Athletic suggested it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Hield requests a trade in the offseason.

It looked like a troubling series of events for the Kings, particularly since Hield had raved about establishing an “instant connection” with new head coach Luke Walton in September and signed a four-year, $86MM extension with the franchise in October. That long-term contract, which goes into effect beginning in 2020/21, was supposed to make Hield one of Sacramento’s core building blocks. An up-and-down season raised uncertainty about whether that’s still the case.

Still, there have been recent signals that any tension between Hield and the Kings may not be as bad as it looked. As we relayed earlier this week, Sam Amick of The Athletic wrote that Sacramento’s late-season surge significantly reduced the likelihood that Walton or GM Vlade Divac will be replaced before ’20/21. And it seems possible that Hield, who insisted in December that he’s a team-first who only cares about winning, will be increasingly receptive to a sixth man role if it’s helping the Kings win games.

Speaking to Amick, Walton downplayed the idea that the Hield situation was any sort of cause for concern, adding that he and the 27-year-old have a “very good relationship” and get along well.

“Buddy was not happy about not starting, but he didn’t b—h,” Walton said. “He said, ‘You’re the coach. I’m going to do what I need to do.’ … Even with Buddy (coming off the bench), he was still playing starter minutes, he was still finishing certain games, and it’s one of those things where if you’re truly bought into being on the team, you end up accepting it because that’s a huge value. … And I thought Buddy had really, really done a nice job of embracing that and making our team better.”

The Kings played their best basketball of the season with Hield coming off the bench, winning 13 of 20 contests. His per-minute production improved noticeably during that stretch as well. After averaging 20.0 PPG with a .416/.360/.816 shooting line in 44 games (34.4 MPG) as a starter, Hield recorded 19.4 PPG on .465/.476/.970 shooting in 26.6 MPG off the bench.

After clearing some future money from their cap at the trade deadline, the Kings are considered likely to re-sign Bogdanovic, an RFA-to-be who is “very good friends” with Hield, according to Walton. That means that Hield could remain in his reserve role beyond this season.

It will be a fascinating situation to watch. Hield has become one of the NBA’s very best three-point shooters and would be highly coveted on the trade market if he were made available. But his four-year commitment to Sacramento wouldn’t give him much leverage, and he may be happy to stick with the Kings if the team continues building on its second-half success, regardless of whether or not he’s starting.

What do you think? Do you expect Hield to push for a trade this offseason, or is this a non-issue, as Walton suggests? Are you bullish on the Kings’ outlook, or would you be worried about another disappointing season reigniting Hield’s frustrations? Will he be satisfied with a sixth man role, or do you expect him to reenter the starting lineup at some point?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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2020/21 Salary Cap Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

April 29th, 2020 at 5:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is looking ahead at the 2020/21 salary cap situations for all 30 NBA teams. Due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the NBA, it’s impossible to know yet where the cap for 2020/21 will land. Given the league’s lost revenue, we’re assuming for now that it will stay the same as the ’19/20 cap, but it’s entirely possible it will end up higher or lower than that.

The Lakers’ roster entering the 2019/20 season was top-heavy and had undergone plenty of turnover, leading to speculation that the team would need some time to establish chemistry and start firing on all cylinders. Instead, the Lakers came out of the gates with 24 wins in their first 27 games. They haven’t looked back from there, entering the NBA’s hiatus with a 49-14 record, the best mark in the West by a comfortable margin.

While maximum salaries for LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be pricey going forward, the franchise has a good deal of flexibility to maneuver on the periphery and won’t be averse to going into the tax if need be.

Here’s where things stand for the Lakers financially in 2020/21, as we continue our Salary Cap Preview series:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Quinn Cook ($2,000,000) 1
  • Devontae Cacok (two-way)
  • Total: $2,000,000

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

Even if we assume Davis opts out to sign a maximum-salary contract and all of the Lakers with player options exercise them, team salary shouldn’t be exorbitant — the five guaranteed salaries, four player options, a max salary for Davis, and the cap hold for the first-round pick would work out to about $123.5MM for 11 roster spots, assuming the cap doesn’t increase.

Of course, if more of those players with options besides Davis require raises for next season, staying out of tax territory will be more challenging. And while it’s plausible that the Lakers will have the full, non-taxpayer mid-level exception available, there may not be enough wiggle room to use the full MLE and bi-annual exception while staying below the tax apron.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,258,000 2
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,623,000 2

Footnotes

  1. Cook’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after October 17.
  2. This is a projected value. If the Lakers’ team salary continues to increase, it’s possible they’d be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,718,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are based on the salary cap and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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How 2020 All-NBA Picks Could Impact Contract Situations

April 29th, 2020 at 1:27pm CST by Luke Adams

All-NBA selections have become more important than ever in recent years, since teams can agree to increase the overall value of certain maximum-salary contracts based on whether or not a player has earned All-NBA honors in a given season.

Those higher max salaries are also available to players who win MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, but there’s only one of each of those awards per year. There are 15 All-NBA players annually, creating more opportunities for players to become eligible for those more lucrative contracts, informally known as “super-max” deals.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the “Designated Veteran Extension,” a player with between seven and nine years of NBA experience who meets certain contract criteria and hasn’t changed teams since the end of his rookie contract become eligible for a maximum salary worth 35% of the cap – instead of 30% – if he was named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.

Similar incentives are available for players coming off their rookie scale contracts, as noted in our glossary entry on the “Derrick Rose Rule.” Those players can earn max deals worth up to 30% of the cap instead of 25% if they were named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.

The differences between the various levels of maximum salaries can be substantial over the course of a long-term contract. For instance, in 2019/20, a five-year max contract that starts at 25% of the cap and includes 8% annual raises is worth just over $158MM. By comparison, a five-year deal that starts at 35% of the cap with 8% annual raises is worth over $221MM. A five-year contract at the 30% max falls in between, at about $190MM.

We don’t know yet what this year’s All-NBA teams will look like – or even when voting will take place – but as our informal polls last week showed, there are a number of candidates whose future earnings could be affected by whether or not they earn one of those 15 spots.

Let’s take a closer look at some of those players…

Players who have already qualified for super-max contracts:

Antetokounmpo and Gobert didn’t even need to rely on All-NBA spots to qualify for super-max contracts — Giannis’ MVP award last year and Gobert’s back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards in 2018 and 2019 secured their eligibility.

Because both players only had six years of experience entering the 2019/20 season, they had to wait one more year to be eligible to actually receive super-max extension offers, which would be worth 35% of the cap instead of 30%.

Antetokounmpo is a lock to receive such an offer from the Bucks, who have publicly said they’ll put it on the table as soon as they can. That was supposed to happen this July, but the NBA’s hiatus has thrown that timeline into flux. Whenever Milwaukee makes its offer, it would be for a five-year extension that would start in 2021/22 and be worth 35% of that season’s cap.

Gobert’s outlook is cloudier. He could also sign a five-year, 35% max-salary extension that would start in 2021/22, but he’s not at the same level of superstardom that Giannis is, so it remains to be seen how aggressive the Jazz will actually be in attempting to lock him up beyond next season.

Players whose already-signed rookie extensions would be impacted by an All-NBA selection:

Siakam and Simmons signed maximum-salary rookie scale extensions with their respective teams last fall. Both contracts will go into effect in 2020/21 and both include Rose Rule language, meaning they’ll be among the players closely monitoring this year’s All-NBA results.

In our series of polls, Siakam earned a spot on the All-NBA Second Team. However, I think there’s a real possibility he could end up on the Third Team. Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Kawhi Leonard will likely receive more votes than Siakam. Anthony Davis will place higher than Siakam too if voters consider him a forward. And even if Davis is listed as a center, Jayson Tatum is among those who should give Siakam a strong push for that Second Team forward spot.

While Siakam might be satisfied to end up on any All-NBA team, a spot on the Second Team would be far more satisfying from a financial perspective. His deal calls for a starting salary worth 28% of the cap if he earns All-NBA Second Team honors, but just 25% if he makes the Third Team.

As we outlined in the fall, that difference would have been worth nearly $16MM over four years based on a $116MM cap. The cap is no longer expected to get that high, but even so, missing out on a Second Team spot would cost Siakam millions.

As for Simmons, he wasn’t one of the 15 players voted to an All-NBA team by Hoops Rumors readers, but he looks to me like a viable candidate for the Third Team. If he makes the Third Team, his starting salary would be 28% of next year’s cap, rather than the 25% he’d get if he doesn’t make an All-NBA squad. Those three percentage points would impact Simmons even more than they would Siakam over the life of their contracts, since Simmons’ five-year deal runs for an extra season and the amount of the annual raises are based on the starting salary.

Nuggets guard Jamal Murray also signed a rookie scale extension with Rose Rule language, but isn’t a realistic candidate for an All-NBA nod.

Players whose next contract could be impacted by an All-NBA selection this season:

If Embiid – who was voted onto Hoops Rumors’ All-NBA Third Team – earns an All-NBA spot this season after doing so last year, he’d be in the same position heading into 2020/21 that Antetokounmpo and Gobert were entering 2019 — he’d have qualified for a super-max extension, but wouldn’t yet be eligible to sign one.

Once the 2021/22 league year begins, Embiid would have seven years of NBA experience, with All-NBA nods in at least two of the last three years, making him eligible to sign a four-year super-max extension that would begin in 2023/24, with a starting salary worth 35% of the cap. Even if Embiid doesn’t make an All-NBA team this season, doing so next year would still make him eligible for that same deal.

As for Ingram, he’s a long shot to be named to an All-NBA team, but in the unlikely event that he is, he’d be eligible to sign for a starting salary of up to 30% of the cap on a new free agent contract with the Pelicans. No other team looking to sign him to an offer sheet could exceed 25% of the cap in that scenario.

Other players to start monitoring if they earn All-NBA honors this season:

These players fall into a few separate sub-categories. Jokic and Booker, for instance, are in their fifth seasons and on their second NBA contracts. An All-NBA spot – which is far likelier for Jokic – would be a good start toward earning super-max eligibility, but they’d still have to make another All-NBA team in either 2021 or 2022 to become eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2022.

Doncic, an All-NBA lock, and Young, a lesser candidate, are only in their second NBA seasons. If they were to make All-NBA teams this year and next, they’d be eligible to sign rookie scale extensions with starting salaries worth up to 30% of the cap during the 2021 offseason. Those deals would go into effect in 2022/23.

Adebayo, Mitchell, and Tatum are all in their third seasons and will be extension-eligible during the 2020 offseason. Earning an All-NBA spot this year actually wouldn’t do much for their Rose Rule eligibility — they’d still have to do it again in 2021 to qualify, since the criteria calls for an All-NBA berth in either the season before the new contract begins or in two of the three prior seasons.

Still, earning All-NBA honors this year would give those three players additional leverage to negotiate Rose Rule language into their potential rookie scale extensions, which would go into effect in 2021/22.

Strong All-NBA candidates who are notably ineligible for super-max contracts:

Beal was in position to qualify for a super-max extension if he had earned All-NBA honors this season, but the short-term contract extension he signed last October eliminated that possibility. By the time that extension expires, he’ll have 10 years of NBA experience and will be eligible for the 35% max anyway.

Davis has the right amount of NBA experience to gain eligibility and should be an All-NBA lock, but the fact that he changed teams last summer ensures he’ll no longer qualify for a Designated Veteran Contract this offseason — he missed out on the possibility of the super-max as soon as he left the Pelicans.

Various other All-NBA candidates won’t meet the super-max criteria for various reasons. Some, like James Harden, are already on a super-max contract. Others, such as LeBron James, already have 10+ years of experience and can’t qualify for a higher max than the 35% they already get. Recently changing teams (ie. Jimmy Butler) or signing new long-term deals (ie. Khris Middleton) also remove certain players from super-max contention.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Best Young Building Block

April 28th, 2020 at 9:29pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Tim Bontemps of ESPN.com asked 20 people within the NBA community, including coaches, executives, and scouts about which player they’d want to build around in the future. Each was asked to rank the following players: Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, and Trae Young.

The overwhelming majority selected Doncic, as he received 17 first-place votes and tallied the three second-place votes where he wasn’t the top choice. Morant was the top choice for two people and Williamson for just one.

“I don’t know if Luka can be any better than he is,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “He’s really good. But I think this might be who he is — which is very good.

“But Ja can get better in terms of his shooting, his team will get better around him and he makes players better around him. I think he can affect the game at both ends.”

Morant, who went No. 2 overall in the 2019 draft, getting more first-place votes than Williamson is surprising.

“Health,” said a Western Conference scout when asked why he ranked Williamson third among the four young stars. “He’d be (No. 1) otherwise.

How would you rank the four players if given the chance to start a franchise with a young star? Take to the comment section below to share your thoughts and opinions. We look forward to hearing what you have to say!

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