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Where Traded Draft Picks Would Land If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 9:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier today, we explored what the lottery odds for the 2020 NBA draft would look like if the regular season doesn’t resume. We’re now applying that hypothetical to another aspect of the draft and examining which traded 2020 picks would and wouldn’t change hands based on the current standings.

Our projections below assume that the NBA will sort its standings by winning percentage in scenarios where teams haven’t played the same number of games this season. Again, this is just a hypothetical exercise — if the season resumes, the order below would likely change.

With that in mind and with the help of our reverse standings, let’s take a closer look at where this year’s traded draft picks would land if the NBA has played its last regular season game of 2019/20.

First round:

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Nets)
  2. Boston Celtics (from Grizzlies)
  3. Brooklyn Nets (from Sixers)
    • Note: Could be No. 20 depending on random tiebreaker.
  4. Milwaukee Bucks (from Pacers)
    • Note: Could be No. 19 depending on random tiebreaker.
  5. Philadelphia 76ers (from Thunder)
    • Note: Could be No. 22 depending on random tiebreaker.
  6. Denver Nuggets (from Rockets)
    • Note: Could be No. 21 depending on random tiebreaker.
  7. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Nuggets)
  8. New York Knicks (from Clippers)
  9. Boston Celtics (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

  • Golden State Warriors (to Nets; top-20 protected)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (to Pelicans; top-20 protected)
  • Utah Jazz (to Grizzlies; top-7 and 15-30 protected)

Notes:

  • The Thunder pick would be the one worth watching closest if the season does resume. It’s top-20 protected, so OKC would keep it if it were to move up a spot or two, sending the Sixers second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 instead.

Second round:

  1. Dallas Mavericks (from Warriors)
  2. Charlotte Hornets (from Cavaliers)
  3. Philadelphia 76ers (from Hawks)
  4. Sacramento Kings (from Pistons)
  5. Philadelphia 76ers (from Knicks)
  6. Washington Wizards (from Bulls)
  7. New York Knicks (from Hornets)
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Wizards)
  9. Memphis Grizzlies (from Suns)
  10. Boston Celtics (from Nets)
  11. Chicago Bulls (from Grizzlies)
  12. Golden State Warriors (from Mavericks)
  13. Atlanta Hawks (from Rockets)
    • Note: Could be No. 51 depending on random tiebreaker.
  14. Sacramento Kings (from Heat)
  15. Golden State Warriors (from Jazz)
  16. Brooklyn Nets (from Nuggets)
  17. Charlotte Hornets (from Celtics)
  18. Philadelphia 76ers (from Lakers)
  19. New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)

Protected picks:

  • Indiana Pacers (to Nets; 45-60 protected)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (to Nets; top-55 protected)

Notes:

  • The Hawks will receive the more favorable of Houston’s and Miami’s second-round picks, while the Kings will receive the less favorable of those two picks. Those two picks could end up right next to one another, since the Rockets (40-24) and Heat (41-24) have nearly identical records.
  • The Celtics’ pick looks like it will be one of the rare second-rounders with heavy protection that will actually change hands. Boston would have kept it if it had fallen in the top 53.
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Community Shootaround: Monumental Star Movement

March 17th, 2020 at 6:23pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Earlier today, we saw NFL legend Tom Brady change teams, opting to take his talents to Tampa Bay (be sure to check out our sister site Pro Football Rumors for the latest during NFL free agency).

The NBA has seen many great star players change teams in recent years. LeBron James did it three times, leaving the Cavaliers for the Heat, the Heat for the Cavs, and then the Cavs for the Lakers.

Some have compared the Brady signing to LeBron’s move, while others have matched it up with Michael Jordan joining the Wizards in the early 2000s. Brady is the greatest QB to play football and many consider Jordan the best to ever play basketball. Yet, the comparison of the two moves doesn’t go much further than that. Jordan came out of retirement to play for Washington while Brady just came off a season where he led his team to a division title and a playoff berth.

That leads us to tonight’s question: Where does Brady moving to Tampa Bay rank in terms of monumental moves among star players and what NBA move would you compare it to? Is it bigger than LeBron going to Miami or – with the 43-year-old quarterback on the last leg of his career – is the signing not as colossal?

Take to the comment section below to share your thoughts and opinions. We look forward to what you have to say!

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What 2020 Lottery Odds Would Look Like If Season Doesn’t Resume

March 17th, 2020 at 1:33pm CST by Luke Adams

While the NBA hopes that resuming the 2019/20 season will be possible, there are scenarios in which the league could proceed directly to the postseason or has to cancel the rest of the ’19/20 campaign entirely. If such measures are necessary, it would mean that the NBA’s current standings will be its final standings.

It’s tricky to say exactly what that would mean for an event like the 2020 NBA draft, which hinges in large part on the previous season’s standings. After all, some teams have played as few as 64 games, while others have played as many as 67.

Teams like the Hawks (20-47) and Cavaliers (19-46) are an equal number of games back of the clubs ahead of them the standings, but Atlanta has the better winning percentage. Presumably, that would mean Cleveland moves ahead of the Hawks in the projected draft order and for lottery odds purposes. Based on winning percentage, the Cavs would also have better lottery positioning than the Timberwolves (19-45), despite having the same number of wins.

With that in mind, we’re looking today at what the lottery odds would be if the NBA’s regular season doesn’t resume and the league ranks its teams by winning percentage. It’s a hypothetical exercise, but one which could become increasingly relevant the longer the league’s hiatus extends.

For a full breakdown of how the NBA draft lottery works, be sure to check out our glossary entry on the subject. The standard odds chart for the new draft lottery format is included in our glossary entry, but the numbers in that chart don’t quite match up with 2020’s lottery, since the Kings and Pelicans currently have identical records. That tie would impact the odds for this year’s lottery.

With the help of our reverse standings and data from Tankathon.com – which is worth bookmarking for all sorts of draft-related info – we’ve listed the new, hypothetical odds for 2020 in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Here’s the full chart:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
GSW 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
CLE 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
MIN 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7.1 – – – – – – –
ATL 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.8 2.2 – – – – – –
DET 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.8 0.6 – – – – –
NYK 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.6 20.6 3.8 0.2 – – – –
CHI 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
CHA 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
WSH 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
PHX 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 18.9 1.2 >0 >0
SAS 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
SAC* 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 – – – – – – – 86.1 7.6 0.1
NOP* 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 – – – – – – – – 92.0 2.3
POR 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 – – – – – – – – – 97.6

* The Kings and Pelicans have matching 28-36 records and would be subject to a random tiebreaker to determine which team gets the No. 12 slot and which gets No. 13. Their spots in this list (and their odds) could be flipped.

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Check Out Pro Football Rumors For NFL Offseason Updates

March 17th, 2020 at 9:33am CST by Luke Adams

None of North America’s major sports leagues are currently playing games, but the NFL is in the midst of one of its biggest weeks of the year, and Pro Football Rumors is covering all the action.

The NFL’s free agency period kicked off on Monday with a series of agreements on major deals, including the Texans trading DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals, the Vikings sending Stefon Diggs to the Bills, and Amari Cooper reaching a $100MM deal with the Cowboys.

Tuesday began with Tom Brady dropping a bombshell, announcing that his time with the Patriots has come to an end. Brady’s eventual landing spot is one of the biggest NFL offseason questions still to be answered, but Pro Football Rumors is keeping tabs on every potential roster move, big and small.

If you’re suffering from NBA rumor withdrawal and you’re an NFL fan, be sure to follow PFR (@pfrumors on Twitter) for all the latest offseason updates.

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Poll: NBA’s Annual Calendar

March 16th, 2020 at 4:43pm CST by Luke Adams

With the NBA considering the possibility of resuming its season in June and potentially completing the NBA Finals in August, ESPN’s Bobby Marks laid out on Twitter how the league’s calendar could hypothetically change for the 2020/21 league year if the NBA decided to push everything back.

As Marks detailed, a new experimental calendar might look something like this:

  • Mid-June: Start of playoffs
  • Early August: NBA Finals
  • Late August: Draft
  • September 1: Start of free agency
  • September 10: Fall league (In place of Summer league)
  • December 10: Training camps open
  • December 25: 82-game regular season begins
  • Mid-June: Regular season ends

That calendar is almost exactly the one Hawks CEO Steve Koonin proposed earlier this month at the Sloan Conference, as we noted last week. Koonin’s argument was that pushing everything back by a couple months would result in less overlap between the NBA and NFL seasons and would increase the amount of time that MLB regular season games are the NBA’s only competition among the four major sports.

Of course, Koonin didn’t have the current situation in mind when he put forth his proposal, but depending on how the coronavirus spread plays out, the layoff may line up in a way that allows the NBA to test the idea if the league doesn’t want to shorten the 2020/21 season too.

NBA reporters and fans who responded to Koonin’s proposal and Marks’ tweet have had mixed opinions. Many have pushed back against losing the summer break that typically follows free agency and Summer League play in July, August, and September. This schedule would also limit NBA players’ ability to participate in international offseason competitions, such as the Olympics or World Cup.

Still, there has been a good amount of support for the idea. The fall is one of the busiest times in sports, with the MLB and MLS postseasons happening, as well as the NHL and NFL regular seasons. Pushing the NBA’s opening night back to December would mean avoiding much of that overlap and turning the Christmas Day showcase into an event that occurs at or near the start of the regular season. Plus, as Marc Stein of The New York Times tweets, many NBA teams would actually be in favor of their players not participating in offseason events like the Olympics.

At this point, even with the NBA’s hiatus threatening to upend this year’s schedule, the idea of making a permanent change to the league’s calendar is probably just a pipe dream. But we want to know what you think.

Would you be in favor of shifting the entire NBA calendar back by about six-to-eight weeks on a permanent basis? Or do you prefer the current setup?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 3/8/20 – 3/14/20

March 14th, 2020 at 2:21pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

  • Luke Adams broke down the seven NBA players on active 10-day contracts when the NBA suspended its season. The postponed season will pause all the players’ tenure with their current teams.
  • Adams examined the 2019/20 disabled player exceptions due to expire last week.
  • For our Free Agent Stock Watch, Dana Gauruder took a look at the Southwest Division. Marquese Chriss and Alex Len‘s recent play had both centers on the ascent.
  • In this week’s poll, we wondered which team was the biggest threat to an all-L.A. Western Conference Finals. (link)
  • In our Community Shootaround this week, we asked you to weigh in on who you felt were the best coaches available in the coming offseason. (link)
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Seven Players On 10-Day Contracts When NBA Suspended Season

March 13th, 2020 at 3:00pm CST by Luke Adams

A moratorium agreement between the NBA and the NBPA will reportedly affect players on 10-day contracts, as Shams Charania of The Athletic said earlier today. Following up on that point, ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter links) confirms that the clock will stop on the 10-day contracts that were active when the NBA suspended its season.

Presumably, Grizzlies forward Anthony Tolliver won’t be impacted. His 10-day deal with Memphis was set to expire on Wednesday night, the last night of game action before the suspension began. Once the moratorium is lifted and play resumes, he’ll likely have to sign a new 10-day contract or rest-of-season pact with the Grizzlies to remain with the team.

However, there were seven other players whose 10-day contracts had yet to run their course as of Wednesday night. Here are the affected players, with the number of days remaining on their deals noted in parentheses:

We’ll have to wait for official details on the moratorium agreement to confirm exactly how these 10-day deals will be handled.

Based on today’s reports though, it sounds like the contracts for players like Chealey, Hall, and Randle, which would have expired on Thursday night, will carry over to the day the season resumes. A player like Noah, who still had a week left on his 10-day contract, should play out that week following the resumption of the season.

Unless we learn otherwise, our roster counts page and 10-day tracker will assume these seven 10-day contracts remain active.

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Poll: Which Team Is Biggest Threat To All-L.A. Western Finals?

March 11th, 2020 at 2:43pm CST by Luke Adams

In a roundtable discussion at ESPN.com, five writers were asked whether the Nuggets represent the biggest threat to derail a potential Lakers/Clippers showdown in the Western Conference Finals this spring. Of the five respondents, only Royce Young said yes, pointing to the “matchup nightmare” that Nikola Jokic represents, as well as Denver’s ability to both score and defend when the team is firing on all cylinders.

The other four ESPN reporters and analysts who participated in the roundtable weren’t quite as bullish on the Nuggets. Kevin Pelton identified Houston as a more realistic challenger, arguing that the Rockets‘ ability to play with quickness and space the floor makes them the team best suited to match up with the Lakers in a Western playoff series. Tim MacMahon suggested that the Rockets, despite some inconsistency, have the highest ceiling of any non-L.A. team.

Although MacMahon had praise for Houston, he and Kirk Goldsberry made a pick that would have been shocking six months ago, arguing that the Thunder are actually the most legitimate threat to an all-L.A. Western Finals. Goldsberry, who point out that Oklahoma City’s 29-10 record since December 15 is the West’s best during that stretch, also observed that the clutch-time lineup of Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, and Steven Adams has the best stats of any five-man unit in the NBA, outscoring opponents by 30 points per 100 possessions.

The Jazz, who are currently the No. 4 seed in the West, didn’t get quite as much love from ESPN’s panel, but Pelton and Young both identified Utah as the non-Lakers team that may match up best with the Clippers in a seven-game series.

The Mavericks probably aren’t ready to seriously challenge the Lakers or Clippers yet, but they may get a shot to upset the Clips in round one. Meanwhile, whichever team claims the No. 8 seed is on track for a matchup with the Lakers. Could any teams from the group of candidates that includes the Pelicans, Grizzlies, Kings, Spurs, or Trail Blazers realistically push LeBron James and Anthony Davis?

We want to know what you think. Which Western Conference team is the best bet to play spoiler and knock off one of the Los Angeles teams in the first two rounds, preventing a WCF showdown?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2020: Pacific Division

March 9th, 2020 at 8:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Pacific Division:

Marquese Chriss, Warriors, 22, C (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2.48MM deal in 2019
The eighth overall pick of the 2016 draft flamed out in Phoenix, Houston and Cleveland, but he’s taken advantage of his opportunity in Golden State. His playing time has gradually increased and so has his production. He averaged 13.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.0 APG and 1.8 BPG last month; In his first four games this month, he’s posted a stat line of 14.5/10.0/3.8/1.5 in those categories. Golden State has until mid-July to guarantee his $1.824MM salary for next season. That’s a dirt-cheap price for a young rotation big man.

Marcus Morris, Clippers, 30, PF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $15MM deal in 2019
Morris has jumped right into the Clippers’ rotation since the Knicks traded him. He’s started all 11 games since the deal became official, averaging 28.9 MPG. Unfortunately, Morris seemingly left his jump shot in the Big Apple. He’s made just 37.3% of his field-goal attempts and 26.3% of his 3-point tries with his new team. In the big showdown with the Lakers on Sunday, Morris clanked all nine of his shots. His defensive versatility will keep him in the rotation, but he needs to regain his perimeter touch to stay on the court in crunch time. Otherwise, he may have to drop his price tag this summer.

Quinn Cook, Lakers, 26, PG (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $6MM deal in 2019
Cook was a steady presence with Golden State last season, as he appeared in 74 regular-season games and 17 more in the postseason. He’s gotten lost in the shuffle with the Lakers. He’s the de facto No. 4 point guard behind Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo and Alex Caruso, and has only played 22 minutes since the All-Star break. Cook is a solid 3-point shooter — 41.2% for his career — which would make him a valuable reserve on many rosters. The Lakers have until June 29 to guarantee Cook’s $3MM salary for next season. It seems likely he’ll become an unrestricted free agent, despite a $1MM partial guarantee.

Frank Kaminsky, Suns, 26, PF (Down) – Signed to two-year, $9.77MM deal in 2019
Kaminsky was in and out of Charlotte’s rotation last season, but he got a chance to reboot his career in Phoenix. The early returns were promising — he had four 20-point games in December. Shortly after Christmas, Kaminsky suffered a stress fracture in his right knee and he hasn’t seen the court again. The team holds a $5MM option on his contract next season. With Dario Saric and Aron Baynes headed to the open market, the Suns will have tough decision to make regarding Kaminsky, since that option must be exercised before free agency begins.

Alex Len, Kings, 26, C (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $8.5MM deal in 2018
Len has generally been productive since being dealt to Sacramento. He had a double-double in 21 minutes against Oklahoma City, an 8-point, 13-rebound, 5-block performance against Detroit and a 15-point, 7-rebound outing in 15 minutes against Toronto. His playing time will continue to fluctuate in the Kings’ crowded frontcourt. Sacramento’s motivation to acquire him was his expiring contract, but he definitely hasn’t hurt his value since the deal. He’ll head into unrestricted free agency this summer and should be able to hook on with a team seeking another big body to fortify its bench.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2019/20 Disabled Player Exceptions To Expire On Tuesday

March 9th, 2020 at 11:10am CST by Luke Adams

March 10 is the last day that teams are allowed to disabled player exceptions for the 2019/20 season, which means the six clubs that still have DPEs available will see them expire if they’re not used on Monday or Tuesday.

We go into more detail on how exactly disabled player exceptions work in our glossary entry on the subject. Essentially though, a DPE gives a team the opportunity to add an injury replacement by either signing a player to a one-year contract, trading for a player in the final year of his contract, or placing a waiver claim on a player in the final year of his contract.

Trades are often the simplest way to make use of disabled player exceptions, but we’re well past the 2019/20 deadline, so that’s no longer an option.

There also don’t appear to be any players on the free agent market or on waivers at the moment who are worthy of an investment larger than the veteran’s minimum — especially since there are no true contenders among the five teams with disabled player exceptions still on hand. As such, I expect the remaining six available DPEs to ultimately go unused.

Here’s a breakdown of the eight DPEs granted by the NBA this season, including the two that were used in recent weeks:

Disabled player exceptions still available:

Disabled player exceptions that have been used:

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