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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

May 30th, 2024 at 1:32pm CST by Rory Maher

The Grizzlies won 56 games in 2021/22 and 51 games in ’22/23, entering the playoffs as the West’s No. 2 seed on each occasion. However, they didn’t find much playoff success, winning one series over those two seasons despite compiling 107 regular season victories.

Entering ’23/24, expectations were a little lower, with a projected win total of 46.5. Memphis finished nowhere near that mark, going 27-55, the seventh-worst record in the NBA.

A big part of the reason why the Grizzlies’ projected win total was lower in October was star point guard Ja Morant had to serve a 25-game suspension following another off-court incident involving a firearm. After serving the suspension and playing nine games, Morant sustained a labral tear in his right shoulder after a training session in January. At the time of his surgery, the recovery was outlined as a six-month process; he’s reportedly making good progress.

Brandon Clarke‘s season was also essentially a wash. He returned in late March after sustaining a torn Achilles tendon in March 2023 and looked pretty good in his six games, but the team’s season was over by that point.

Starting center Steven Adams missed the entire season after undergoing knee surgery in October and was traded to Houston ahead of the February deadline. Marcus Smart, who was acquired in a three-team trade last summer (Memphis gave up Tyus Jones and two-first round picks), was limited to just 20 games due to a variety of injuries. The team’s best player in ’23/24, Desmond Bane, appeared in just just 42 games. The list goes on.

There were a couple bright spots amid the injury-ravaged season. Second-year wing Vince Williams had an unexpected breakout, earning a promotion from a two-way deal to a multiyear standard contract (he was also limited to 52 games due to injuries). And rookie GG Jackson, another former second-round pick who was converted to a standard deal, had a big second half, earning a spot on the All-Rookie Second Team in the process.

With Morant, Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. all under contract for at least the next two seasons, the Grizzlies still have a window to build around their three best players. But with Bane no longer on his rookie contract (his near-max rookie scale extension kicks in next season), their financial situation will be trickier to manage going forward.

The Grizzlies’ Offseason Plan

Memphis experimented with using Jackson more at center in ’23/24, with mixed results. Having him more involved in pick-and-rolls defensively meant he couldn’t be a weak-side roamer, which is what he’s best at. He can also be overpowered by bigger centers and is a subpar rebounder for a big man.

Offensively, Jackson can theoretically space the floor (he only made 32.0% of his threes last season; he’s at 34.5% for his career), and he’s quicker than most centers, which enables him to drive and draw fouls. It’s essentially a trade-off of offense for defense, but it isn’t a particularly fruitful one.

Jackson was the league’s Defensive Player of the Year in ’22/23. In ’23/24, he received no votes for the All-Defensive First Team and one for the Second Team. Obviously, utilizing him in a more effective way on that end is critical to the team’s success.

The Grizzlies fell two spots in the draft lottery and wound up with the No. 9 overall pick. After trading Adams and Xavier Tillman, center is a clear roster weakness, but the draft is light on big men who project to be available at that spot.

Do the Grizzlies really want to add another 19- or 20-year-old to a relatively young team that’s trying to win now? Unless they try to move up to snag a true center like Donovan Clingan, I think it’s probably more likely that they’ll trade their lottery pick for immediate help than keep it (they also control two second-rounders at No. 39 and No. 57).

If Memphis exercises its $14.8MM team option on Luke Kennard, the team would have 13 players with guaranteed deals and a team salary of approximately $172.5MM, including the dead-money cap hit of Kennedy Chandler. If the Grizzlies keep the No. 9 pick, that figure rises to about $178.2MM.

The projected luxury tax line for ’24/25 is $171.3MM. The first apron is at $178.7MM. If the Grizzlies pick up that option on Kennard, they would lose access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (which starts at $12.86MM) and the bi-annual exception ($4.68MM). Instead, they would have the taxpayer MLE ($5MM).

On the other hand, declining the option could mean losing a productive role player and a useful mid-sized salary for trade purposes. Kennard is one of the league’s best shooters — his 43.9% career mark on three-pointers is tops among active players, and third-best all-time. He’s also a decent tertiary play-maker and moves the ball well. The problem is he’s a below-average defender, a weakness that tends to be exploited more in the playoffs.

The Grizzlies already have Morant, Bane and Smart on the roster. Would Kennard even be part of closing lineups? On offense, sure, he could be used in place of Smart, but wasting timeouts on offense-for-defense substitutions isn’t really a great strategy at the end of games.

Is this team, as currently constructed, worth paying the tax for? Probably not. But with a small tweak or two, it could be.

Let’s say the Grizzlies decline the option and use the non-taxpayer MLE to sign a free agent center or two. Nic Claxton will be out of their price range. The Knicks could just use their Early Bird rights on Isaiah Hartenstein to outbid Memphis if the Grizzlies offer him the full MLE.

The remaining list of free agent centers doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Former Grizzly Jonas Valanciunas remains highly productive as a post scorer and rebounder, but he’s 32 and struggles defensively. If they split the MLE, they might be able to sign both Andre Drummond and Goga Bitadze — I don’t hate the idea as a temporary solution, but I also don’t think it would help them contend for a championship.

If he actually becomes available this summer, Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen looks like a terrific fit for this roster. I imagine he would be near the top of the Grizzlies’ list of potential trade targets.

Allen is on a relatively team-friendly contract that will pay him $20MM each of the next two seasons. He’s 26, right around the age of Memphis’ top three players. He’s a strong defender who would be an athletic lob threat to pair with Morant. The former All-Star wouldn’t come cheap in a trade, but the Grizzlies have the pieces to pursue him.

Would the No. 9 pick, Clarke or Kennard, and a young, cost-controlled player who can contribute (like Williams or Jackson) be enough to get it done? (Another contract might be needed for salary-matching purposes.) The Cavs would probably counter by asking for a second first-rounder, since the Grizzlies control all of their future first-round picks, but Cleveland would at least have to consider it. Of course, the Cavs are trying to compete for a championship too, which makes the 2024 lottery pick less appealing unless they can flip it for win-now help.

If healthy, the Grizzlies have the framework of a good team — they went 6-3 in games Morant played last season, though that’s a small sample and it isn’t a given that he’ll stay out of trouble going forward. The problem is, “good” isn’t good enough in the West — the Pelicans won 49 games and were unable to avoid the play-in tournament. Memphis can’t just run it back with its current roster and hope for better health luck. The Grizzlies will need to improve this summer if they want to be a legitimate contender.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 9 overall pick ($5,773,800 cap hold)
  • No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 57 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $5,773,800

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Santi Aldama (rookie scale)
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Luke Kennard (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
  • Marcus Smart (veteran)
  • Ziaire Williams (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

  • Yves Pons ($1,867,722 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $1,867,722

Note: Pons’ cap hold is on the Grizzlies’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Grizzlies project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron. If they approach or exceed the first apron, they would lose access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception and would gain access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $12,600,000
  • Trade exception: $7,492,540
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $2,718,240
  • Trade exception: $1,930,681

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Brooklyn Nets

May 27th, 2024 at 2:07pm CST by Luke Adams

The Nets were a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference in 2022/23, but that was largely due to the work of a pre-trade-deadline roster led by Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. After trading away Irving on February 6 (an injured Durant was moved three days later), the team went 13-17 down the stretch and was swept out of the playoffs in the first round by Philadelphia.

Those second-half and postseason results accurately reflected the level of the new-look roster, which underwent only marginal changes during the 2023 offseason. So it came as no real surprise that after hovering around .500 for much of the first half of this past season, Brooklyn eventually fell out of play-in contention, even in a weak Eastern Conference where the No. 10 seed finished with 36 wins. The team’s 32-50 record in 2023/24 wasn’t far off from its pace to finish the previous season.

While the Nets have some talented young players on their roster, none appear to be on a fast track to superstardom, so roster changes will be necessary to increase the team’s ceiling. But there’s no simple path to meaningful upgrades — Brooklyn is capped out this summer and doesn’t own a 2024 draft pick.

Going in the other direction and bottoming out in the hopes of landing a future star in the 2025 or 2026 draft isn’t really a viable path either, since the Nets don’t control their own first-round draft pick until 2028. As a result of the 2021 trade for James Harden, Brooklyn owes the Rockets its unprotected first-rounder in both 2024 (No. 3 overall) and 2026, along with swap rights in 2025 and 2027.

The situation isn’t quite as dire as it was for a few years in Brooklyn after the team’s misguided decision to mortgage several years of draft assets in a deal for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, which lined up the Celtics to draft Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in consecutive years. But the Nets will need some patience or some luck – or both – in order to reemerge as a legitimate contender in the East.

The Nets’ Offseason Plan

Mikal Bridges is the best player – and asset – on the Nets’ roster, but he was miscast as a No. 1 option in 2023/24. His play declined in the second half, and while he’d never ask for a night off (he hasn’t missed a single game since entering the league in 2018), the veteran forward probably wouldn’t mind facing a little less defensive attention going forward. Bridges averaged just 15.7 points per game on 39.9% shooting in his final 31 games of the season.

Bridges makes perfect sense as the second or third option on a contending team, slotting into a role like the one OG Anunoby played for the Knicks — he can make three-pointers and handle challenging defensive assignments, but he’s better off as a secondary scorer, not as someone who constantly has the ball in his hands.

Whether Bridges ends up in a more appropriate role in Brooklyn or elsewhere is the question. As noted above, the Nets don’t have cap room or draft picks this summer, so the only way to turn Bridges into their No. 2 option in 2024/25 would be to trade for a star.

That scenario isn’t out of the question. Despite not controlling their own draft picks in the coming years, the Nets have an excess of future assets from other teams – namely Dallas and Phoenix – as a result of last year’s Irving and Durant trades. They also have a huge salary-matching piece in Ben Simmons, who will make $40.3MM on an expiring contract in 2024/25. Brooklyn has frequently been linked to Donovan Mitchell and could certainly be a player in the bidding for the Cavaliers guard or another star who hits the trade market this summer.

I’d question whether that’s the right approach though. Mitchell – or an equivalent star – would certainly make the Nets a better team, but he wouldn’t make them a legitimate title contender, and the cost (not only in trade assets but in the form of a long-term maximum-salary contract for the incoming star) would limit the club’s ability to pursue further upgrades.

Team owner Joe Tsai recently talked about taking a “longer-term approach” to team-building, and the hiring of a player development specialist like Jordi Fernandez as Brooklyn’s new head coach suggests the organization isn’t looking to take big swings after a 32-50 season unless a can’t-miss opportunity falls into its lap. I’d be surprised if the Nets make a blockbuster win-now deal this offseason — it makes more sense to build up the roster patiently and incrementally like they did the last time they went through a retooling process without their own draft picks.

Of course, there is another potential route available to the Nets: Bridges would have significant value on the trade market. Head of basketball operations Sean Marks and his front office have been adamantly opposed to trading Bridges despite reportedly receiving strong offers ever since they acquired him last February, and I understand that stance. His skill set is a coveted one and he’s proven he can play big minutes on a championship contender, having been a full-time starter for the Suns team that got within two wins of a title in 2021. You don’t want to trade that sort of player. Plus, as we noted earlier, making next year’s roster even worse wouldn’t benefit the Nets from a draft perspective as long as they don’t control their picks.

But what if they did control their picks? The Rockets, who have prioritized two-way players since Ime Udoka‘s arrival last spring, reportedly covet Bridges and were said to be prepared to put a strong offer on the table for him at February’s trade deadline.

Could it be in the Nets’ best interest, long-term, to consider a Bridges deal with Houston that would return their own 2026 pick and eliminate those ’25 and ’27 swap rights? Even if this year’s No. 3 pick isn’t included in the package (it could be), regaining control of those future picks would put Brooklyn in position to properly rebuild with valuable lottery picks in the next year or two. They could take the rebuild a step further by also entertaining trade offers for wings Dorian Finney-Smith and Cameron Johnson, both of whom would hold real appeal for playoff teams.

There’s no simple answer here for the Nets. While negotiating with the Rockets makes some sense on the surface, Houston would presumably recognize that Brooklyn’s own first-round picks are more valuable to the Nets than another team’s first-rounders would be, which would give the Rockets added leverage in any trade talks. And is Marks’ job security strong enough – after he was given the chance to hire his fourth head coach this spring – that he’d be willing to take another step backward by hitting the reset button again? I’m skeptical, which is why I consider Bridges more likely than not to open the 2024/25 season as a Net.

The decisions the Nets make on the trade market could have a huge impact on the franchise, but the front office has the option of simply taking a wait-and-see approach on that front. That’s not the case in free agency, where starting center Nic Claxton will become an unrestricted free agent this summer, giving him the ability to leave Brooklyn without the team getting any compensation.

The Nets will do all they can to avoid that happening, which might mean going up to $25MM per year – or even a little higher – to retain the young big man, who has emerged as a reliable rim protector and rebounder up front and still might have his best years ahead of him.

Fernandez and Marks didn’t do themselves any favors in their upcoming negotiations with the 25-year-old by declaring last month that they believe he’s a future Defensive Player of the Year, but he would’ve been in line for a major payday anyway. For what it’s worth, Jarrett Allen signed a five-year, $100MM free agent contract back in 2021 when his résumé wasn’t all that dissimilar to Claxton’s and a $20MM salary represented about 17.8% of the cap. Three years later, 17.8% of the projected 2024/25 cap would be almost exactly $25MM.

The Nets will also have contract decisions to make on Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe, though there’s less urgency in those cases — both Thomas and Sharpe are extension-eligible beginning this July, but would be on track for restricted free agency in 2025 if no deal is reached before the ’24/25 regular season begins.

As long as Brooklyn is able to re-sign Claxton, I wouldn’t count on a new deal for Sharpe this offseason. Big man Noah Clowney flashed real promise toward the end of his rookie season and if he continues to improve, he could push Sharpe for the role of Claxton’s primary backup next season. The Nets may want to see more from both players before deciding in 2025 whether to invest long-term in Sharpe.

Thomas is a trickier case. He’s a genuinely gifted scorer, having racked up 22.5 points per game in his third NBA season, but he doesn’t do much else on offense and has been a subpar defender. His ability to put the ball in the basket is valuable, but Brooklyn will likely be reluctant to break the bank on a player whose game outside of that one skill is so limited. It wouldn’t surprise me if the two sides have a hard time bridging the gap between the contract the Nets are comfortable offering and the one Thomas will seek.

It’s also worth noting that if the Nets simply keep Simmons’ expiring contract on their books for the 2024/25 season and don’t add any long-term money to their cap besides Claxton, they’ll be well-positioned to create real financial flexibility a year from now, when Simmons’ $40MM+ and Dennis Schröder‘s $13MM contract end. Locking up Thomas early would cut into that room, assuming his next deal starts above his projected 2025 cap hold of $12.1MM. That’s another argument in favor of holding off on a new deal for the 22-year-old until next year.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jalen Wilson ($1,816,857)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above.
  • Jaylen Martin (two-way)
  • Total: $1,816,857

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Mikal Bridges (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.
  • Day’Ron Sharpe (rookie scale)
  • Ben Simmons (veteran)
  • Cameron Thomas (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Nets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Nets project to be over the cap but below the tax line.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $20,357,143
  • Trade exception: $11,928,571
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $9,500,000
  • Trade exception: $6,802,950
    • Expires on July 8.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Base Year Compensation

May 25th, 2024 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

The term “base year compensation” no longer shows up in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement and hasn’t since 2011. A relic of past agreements, the base year compensation rule was intended to prevent teams from signing free agents to new contracts that were specifically intended to facilitate salary-matching in trades.

While the base year compensation rules have, for the most part, been adjusted and/or removed from the CBA, there’s still one situation where they apply. Teams have to take them into account when completing sign-and-trade deals.

The BYC rules apply to a player who meets all of the following criteria in a sign-and-trade:

  • He is a Bird or Early Bird free agent.
  • His new salary is worth more than the minimum.
  • He receives a raise greater than 20%.
  • His team is at or above the cap immediately after the signing.

If the player meets those criteria and is included in a sign-and-trade deal, his outgoing salary for matching purposes is considered to be his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. For the team he is being signed-and-traded to, his incoming figure for matching purposes is simply his new full salary.

Here are a couple specific examples to help make things a little clearer:

Let’s say the Knicks want to sign-and-trade OG Anunoby this offseason. There’s no indication they do, but the likely salary gap between his current contract and his next one make him a good example of a base year compensation player. Anunoby is a Bird free agent, his new salary will be well above the minimum, and New York projects to be an over-the-cap team. Having made $18,642,857 in 2023/24, Anunoby figures to receive a raise significantly higher than 20% — his next deal could easily start above $30MM. So he meets the BYC criteria.

In a scenario where he signs a deal with a $38MM starting salary as part of a sign-and-trade, Anunoby’s salary for matching purposes from the Knicks’ perspective would be $19MM, which is 50% of his new salary (that amount is greater than his previous salary). From his new team’s perspective, Anunoby’s incoming figure would be his actual salary, $38MM.

On the other hand, if Anunoby were to get a starting salary worth $35MM from a new team, his outgoing salary for matching purposes would be $18,642,857, the amount he made in 2023/24, because that figure would be higher than 50% of his new salary ($17.5MM).

Often, a team acquiring a player via sign-and-trade doesn’t have the cap room to sign the player outright, or else there would be little incentive to negotiate a sign-and-trade. That means salary-matching is required, which can be complicated by base year compensation rules.

In the first Anunoby scenario outlined above, the Knicks wouldn’t be able to take back more than $26.5MM in salary in exchange for the forward due to the league’s matching rules. That number would dip to $19MM if New York’s team salary is above the tax apron. However, in order to take on $38MM in incoming salary, New York’s hypothetical trade partner – assuming they’re over the cap – would have to send out at least $30.2MM in order to account for those salary-matching rules themselves.

The gap between the salary-matching figures from the two teams’ perspectives would complicate sign-and-trade talks, requiring the two clubs to include additional pieces or get a third team involved to make the numbers work.

There were a few examples last summer of teams navigating base year compensation rules to complete sign-and-trade deals. For instance, when the Celtics signed-and-traded Grant Williams to the Mavericks, he met the BYC criteria when he received a raise far above 20%, getting $12,405,000 in the first year of his new contract.

That meant Dallas had to match his incoming $12.4MM salary (and did so sending out Reggie Bullock‘s $11MM+ salary to San Antonio in the three-team deal), but for Boston’s purposes, Williams’ outgoing cap figure was just $6,202,500, half of his new salary. The Celtics didn’t take back any players in the three-team swap, but created a trade exception worth that amount.

The Heat took a similar path when they signed-and-traded Max Strus to the Cavaliers. Strus’ first-year salary on his new deal with Cleveland was $14,487,684, which was the amount the Cavs had to account for when they salary-matched, but it only counted as $7,243,842 in outgoing salary for the Heat, who created a trade exception worth that amount.

In order to legally acquire Strus, the Cavs sent out Cedi Osman ($6,718,842) and Lamar Stevens (whose deal featured a $400,000 partial guarantee). They were permitted to take back up to 200% of that outgoing salary, plus an extra $250K. It’s no coincidence that if you take those two cap figures ($7,118,842), double them ($14,237,684) and add that $250K cushion, the end result is $14,487,684, Strus’ exact salary.

The base year compensation concept doesn’t surface all that often, due to the specific criteria that must be met. However, it looms large over sign-and-trade attempts involving free agents who receive significant raises, reducing the likelihood of teams finding a deal that can be legally completed.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Previous versions of this post were published in 2019, 2022, and 2023.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Utah Jazz

May 24th, 2024 at 7:29am CST by Luke Adams

The Jazz‘s past two seasons have played out in similar fashion, with the team hovering around .500 and holding onto a play-in spot through the first half. However, in both 2022/23 and ’23/24, the front office clearly had little interest in pushing for a postseason berth, instead opting to sell off key rotation players at back-to-back trade deadlines. In 2023, it was Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley. In 2024, it was Simone Fontecchio, Kelly Olynyk, and Ochai Agbaji.

None of those players are stars, but they were important enough contributors that losing them played a major part in ultimately knocking the team out of the play-in hunt. The Jazz went 10-19 down the stretch in 2023 and just 5-25 to close out their most recent season.

In each case, Utah’s solid first-half play resulted in a few too many wins at the end of the season to earn a pick in the top half of the lottery. The team claimed the No. 9 overall selection a year ago and will pick at No. 10 this summer.

That’s not an ideal outcome for an organization that could badly use another young cornerstone player with star upside to add to its core. As constructed, the Jazz aren’t bad enough to be in the mix for a top-five pick and aren’t good enough to be a legitimate playoff contender.

The front office will have to move forward on one of three paths. Continuing to build incrementally through the draft and stockpile assets by trading non-star veterans is one option. Accelerating the rebuild by trading some of their excess future draft picks for an impact player to complement Lauri Markkanen is another. The third would involve taking a more significant step back by trading Markkanen and truly bottoming out, lining the team up to potentially pick much higher than No. 9 or 10 in next year’s draft.

The Jazz’s Offseason Plan

Of those three potential paths for Utah, I consider the safe, middle-of-the-road route (building through the draft, developing their young players, and hanging onto Markkanen) to be the likeliest, even if it won’t necessarily line the team up to draft a future star in 2025. I don’t think a Markkanen trade should be ruled out, whereas I view a blockbuster trade that accelerates the rebuild as an extreme long shot.

The Jazz aren’t just one move away from being a contender, so cashing in several of their future draft assets now doesn’t really make sense, even if they have the assets to make such a move. Utah has talked about focusing on player development and needs to get a better sense of what it has in its youngsters, including 2022/23 All-Rookie first-teamer Walker Kessler and 2023 first-rounders Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, and Brice Sensabaugh.

It’s also important to note that the Jazz still owe a first-round pick to Oklahoma City. Presumably, one reason why management hasn’t been eager to push for a play-in spot in recent years is its desire to ensure that pick falls into its protected range and stays with Utah — that just narrowly happened this year, as it was top-10 protected. The pick will be top-10 protected again in 2025 and top-eight protected in 2026. If it’s not conveyed by then, the Jazz’s obligation to the Thunder will be extinguished.

Those protection terms loom large over the Jazz’s plans going forward. To clarify, that first-rounder will never become unprotected; it won’t even turn into two second-rounders if Utah hangs onto long enough. It will simply stay with the Jazz, leaving OKC empty-handed, if it lands in its protected range for two more years.

A desire to hang onto that first-round pick may be the best argument in favor of trading Markkanen, who has emerged as a star since arriving in Utah, averaging 24.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game with a .490/.395/.885 shooting line across two seasons.

His expiring contract limits his trade value somewhat, especially since he can’t realistically be extended prior to free agency by a team without cap room, as that team would be limited to offering a 40% raise on his $18MM salary for 2024/25. But the Jazz could still command a significant haul for Markkanen. And taking into account the draft assets they already control from the Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert deals, along with a bump in value for their own 2025 and 2026 first-rounders without Markkanen on the roster, no NBA team would be better positioned to draft top-level talent in the coming years.

But there are plenty of arguments for keeping Markkanen too. For one, even with him leading the way, the Jazz have been a bottom-10 team in each of the past two years — they could potentially hang onto the first-rounder they owe the Thunder even if he sticks around.

Utah is also far better situated than most teams to extend Markkanen before he becomes a free agent in 2025. Because the Jazz will have cap room this offseason, they could renegotiate Markkanen’s contract before extending him, giving him a substantial bump on his $18MM salary and then extending him off the new figure, which would no longer make the limit of a 40% raise unpalatable. It’s not as if the Jazz will be going big-name shopping in free agency, so that’s a logical use of their cap room — they took the same route a year ago with Jordan Clarkson, renegotiating a raise for 2023/24 while tacking two new years onto his contract.

Markkanen won’t be eligible for a renegotiation until early August, but we should know by early July whether or not the Jazz plan to take that route — if they leave a significant chunk of cap room open through the first week of free agency, it’ll be a pretty strong signal that they’re preserving it for a Markkanen renegotiation.

For what it’s worth, this is the approach I expect the Jazz to take. It would allow the team to preserve a key asset without necessarily taking a future trade off the table — if Markkanen renegotiates as soon as he’s permitted to, he’d become trade-eligible again just in time for February’s deadline.

So if renegotiating and extending Markkanen is the plan, what would the rest of Utah’s offseason look like? It starts with their draft picks at No. 10, No. 29, and No. 32. Controlling those three selections gives the Jazz a ton of options in the trade market — they could move up or down from any of those spots, or could trade one or more of their picks for future assets if they’re not inclined to add three more rookies to their roster.

No. 10 is the pick most likely to be kept, and I’d expect to see the Jazz use that selection to zero in on a prospect who could help out on both ends of the floor. A guard like Stephon Castle is one possibility — ESPN has Castle going to Utah in its most recent mock draft, observing that his potential as a play-maker and versatile perimeter defender would make him a good fit next to smaller, offensive-minded guards like some on the Jazz’s roster. I also view three-and-D wings like Cody Williams and Ja’Kobe Walter as players who would make sense for Utah.

Depending on whether the Jazz want to retain Omer Yurtseven, Darius Bazley, and/or Kenneth Lofton – all of whom have non-guaranteed salaries – or any of their own free agents, they could potentially renegotiate Markkanen’s deal and still have a some cap room left over. However, that room would be limited, especially if they go up to the max for Markkanen (they might not have to, but that could allow them to construct an extension with a descending structure that gives them more cap flexibility in future seasons).

As noted above, the Jazz are very unlikely to be players in free agency except on minimum or near-minimum deals, so if they do have cap room available, I’d expect them to explore the trade market. There could be an opportunity to add a role player like they did a year ago when they used cap space to absorb John Collins‘ contract. Or they could take on another team’s unwanted contract with a draft pick attached.

Talen Horton-Tucker, Kris Dunn, Luka Samanic, and Kira Lewis are the Jazz players headed to free agency. Of those four, Dunn may be the best bet to return — he earned praise during the season from head coach Will Hardy for his locker room presence. Horton-Tucker has played a regular role in Utah for the past two seasons, but he isn’t a true point guard and isn’t a good enough shooter to attract much defensive attention off the ball. I’d be a little surprised if he’s back. Samanic and Lewis didn’t see regular rotation minutes last season.

As for the Jazz’s potential trade candidates, Clarkson is an obvious name to watch. His new extension dips down to just over $14MM per year for the next two seasons, making him an easier fit for contenders than he would’ve been on this year’s $23.5MM cap hit. And as he enters his age-32 season, he likely wouldn’t be opposed to ending up on a roster a little closer to contending.

Collins and Collin Sexton boosted their value as trade chips by turning in solid performances in 2023/24, but while their contracts are hardly albatrosses, they’re not bargains either. Collins is owed $26.58MM next season, with a $26.58MM player option for 2025/26, while Sexton will earn a total of $37MM+ over the next two seasons. That will make it hard to net a significant return for either player on the trade market, so I’d expect them stay put for now.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Lauri Markkanen ($12,044,544)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Markkanen’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 28.
  • Omer Yurtseven ($2,660,000)
  • Darius Bazley ($2,463,946)
    • Bazley’s salary will become partially guaranteed for $400,000 if he remains under contract through July 25.
  • Kenneth Lofton ($2,120,693)
    • Lofton’s salary will become partially guaranteed for $400,000 if he remains under contract through July 25.
  • Jason Preston (two-way)
  • Total: $19,289,183

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • Kira Lewis ($7,744,600 qualifying offer / $17,166,348 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $17,166,348

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because they have finished each of the past two seasons on two-way contracts with the Jazz, Juzang’s and Potter’s qualifying offers would be worth their respective minimum salaries (projected to be $2,093,637 for Juzang and $2,168,944 for Potter). Those offers would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 10 overall pick ($5,485,080 cap hold)
  • No. 29 overall pick ($2,520,120 cap hold)
  • No. 32 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $8,005,200

Extension-Eligible Players

  • John Collins (veteran)
  • Talen Horton-Tucker (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • Lauri Markkanen (veteran)
  • Collin Sexton (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of September 3.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Jazz project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce two trade exceptions – worth $6,473,006 and $3,044,872 – in order to use cap room.

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: San Antonio Spurs

May 22nd, 2024 at 2:45pm CST by Rory Maher

In terms of NBA roster construction, the most difficult thing to acquire is a foundational star to build around. When the Spurs won the draft lottery in 2023 and landed the No. 1 overall pick, they found such a player in Victor Wembanyama.

The unanimous choice for Rookie of the Year, Wembanyama finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and on Tuesday became the first rookie in league history to be named to the All-Defensive First Team.

There has never been a player as tall and long as Wembanyama (he’s 7’4″ with a 8’0″ wingspan) who comes close to his unique blend of physical attributes and skills. While many seven-footers look stiff and awkward on the court due to their immense size, Wembanyama is agile, fluid and graceful, with excellent body control. He has a rare ability to precisely understand how his body can navigate a given space.

The French phenom handles the ball better than some guards, with advanced and elaborate dribble moves that mimic some of the game’s all-time scorers. He can spin both ways while finishing emphatically with either hand. Wembanyama is a skilled passer who certainly could have — and probably should have — averaged more than 3.9 assists per game. He has very deep shooting range and attempted 5.5 threes per game, one of the highest marks among all big men.

For all of Wembanyama’s offensive talent, he’s much more polished on the defensive end at this point in his career. Even if he gets beat one-on-one, he can recover quickly enough to still block a shot. He has a high basketball IQ, excellent hand-eye coordination and situational awareness. He doesn’t back down from physicality despite having a thin frame, and he fully utilizes his massive wingspan and glove-like hands.

Just how good was the 20-year-old’s rookie campaign? Despite playing just 29.7 minutes per game, Wembanyama averaged more steals (1.2) plus blocks (3.6) than every player in the 21st century except for one: four-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace. The scariest thing is that he only got better as the season wore on, averaging 23.7 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.5 steals and 4.6 blocks (!) over his last 24 games (32.1 MPG).

Despite Wembanyama’s individual success, the Spurs went just 22-60 in 2023/24, the exact same record they posted in ’22/23. The team’s underlying stats were marginally better (-6.4 net rating vs. a league worst -9.9 a year ago), but San Antonio was still dreadful.

Yes, the club was much better when Wembanyama played, with a defensive rating (111.2) that would have ranked fifth in the league. When Wembanyama was off the court, San Antonio’s had the equivalent of the NBA’s 24th-ranked defense (117.3).

However, the team actually fared slightly worse on offense when he was on the court than off. His .565 true shooting percentage was below league average (.580) and well below average for a big man. He also averaged 3.7 turnovers per game, and turnovers were a significant issue for the Spurs throughout the season. Being the No. 1 option on an inexperienced team with poor floor spacing has its downsides, and Wembanyama’s shot selection wasn’t always ideal either.

Part of that was due to the failed lineup experiments at the beginning of the season, when the Spurs ran Wembanyama at power forward, Zach Collins at center, and Jeremy Sochan at point guard. It definitely is not a coincidence that Wembanyama’s numbers rose across the board when Tre Jones, the team’s only true point guard, became a full-time starter on January 4. The Spurs were 5-28 at that point and were slightly more respectable (17-32) the rest of the way.

The Spurs’ Offseason Plan

While Jones is a solid all-around player, he profiles as more of a top-tier backup than a starter. That’s why the Spurs have been linked to All-Star names like Trae Young and Darius Garland. For what it’s worth, multiple reports have downplayed the team’s potential interest in Young.

Generally speaking, San Antonio needs more players who can create for themselves and others, shoot, and throw entry passes and lobs. If those players can also be at least average defensively, that would be a huge plus.

Aside from Wembanyama and Devin Vassell, who signed a five-year, $135MM rookie scale extension last offseason, I wouldn’t be shocked to see anyone else on the roster moved. I don’t expect that to happen with 2022 lottery pick Sochan, as the team likes his competitiveness and defensive versatility. Same for 2023 second-rounder Sidy Cissoko, who just turned 20 in April. Both players really need to develop their jump shots, however.

I would also be mildly surprised if Jones gets traded. In a vacuum, he isn’t irreplaceable by any means, but the team clearly needs the 24-year-old’s skill set. Jones is another player who isn’t known for his outside shooting ability though — his 33.5% three-point conversion rate last season was a career high, and he averaged just 2.5 attempts per game. Teams dare him and several others on the roster to shoot, which is another reason why Wembanyama attempted so many threes while only converting 32.5% of them.

2022 first-rounders Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley haven’t shown much in their first two seasons to think they’ll be part of the team’s long-term future, but they’re both just 21 years old and on relatively cheap contracts. The Spurs don’t have a roster crunch, so they can be patient and see if the two guards develop further in the offseason.

Cedi Osman is the only true unrestricted free agent on the roster. Assuming the price is right, the Spurs could re-sign him, but it probably won’t be a high priority. Devonte’ Graham seems highly likely to hit the open market as well — his $12.65MM salary is only partially guaranteed for $2.85MM, and I expect the Spurs to waive him, considering he only played 313 total minutes in ’24/25. There’s certainly an argument to be made Graham should have played more this past season, but San Antonio was more focused on experimenting and player development than giving veterans minutes.

If the Spurs accelerate their timeline by trading away some of their future first-rounders for upgrades, Keldon Johnson ($54MM over the next three seasons) and Zach Collins ($34.8MM over the next two) are the team’s most likely trade candidates. They are the only players on the roster who will make between $13-28MM in ’24/25, so their contracts are obvious salary-matching pieces.

A former late first-rounder, Johnson has been a productive scorer and slasher over the past handful of seasons. However, he was moved to the bench last season. The 24-year-old gets left in the dust too often defensively, particularly struggling with quicker players and lateral movement. If the Spurs view him more as a sixth man than a starter, he could certainly be expendable in the right deal.

Collins underwent surgery last month after tearing the labrum in his right shoulder (he’s expected to be ready for next season). The oft-injured former Gonzaga product didn’t mesh well alongside Wembanyama, with his three-point percentage dropping from 37.4% in ’22/23 to 32.0% in ’23/24. He’s a solid enough backup, but the two-year, $35MM extension he signed last October doesn’t exactly look team-friendly.

While the Spurs have plenty of options if they want to make deals, they could also simply keep all of their future first-round picks and take a wait-and-see approach to the offseason. Listening to offers while not proactively shopping for help might make the most sense, given that Collins could be the oldest player on the roster next season and he’s only 26.

San Antonio got lucky in the draft lottery once again, moving up to No. 4 overall after finishing with the NBA’s fifth-worst record. The Spurs also control the No. 8 overall pick after the Raptors slid down two spots — Toronto would have kept the selection if it had landed in the top six (San Antonio acquired the rights to the pick in last year’s Jakob Poeltl trade).

Controlling a pair of early-to-mid lottery picks would be a massive windfall in most years. It remains to be seen if it will have the same effect in 2024, as this year’s draft class is largely viewed as lacking in top-end talent.

That said, the Spurs also don’t need the players they select to be home runs. Having cost-controlled role players would be very helpful too, and there are players who fit that mold in this draft.

Having a pair of lottery picks will surely have rumors swirling about the Spurs potentially trying to move up or down in the draft. That’s just the nature of controlling multiple picks in that range. San Antonio also owns one second-rounder, No. 42 overall.

If they move up or he’s still available at No. 4, French 3-and-D forward Zaccharie Risacher seems like a natural target for the Spurs. If they focus on shooting, Kentucky guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, Tennesee swingman Dalton Knecht, and French forward Tidjane Salaun are candidates to monitor. If they gravitate more toward best players available, Nikola Topic (Serbia), Stephon Castle (UConn), Ron Holland and Matas Buzelis (G League Ignite) could be options.

Getting lucky in the lottery also means the Spurs will have less projected cap room in free agency, which really isn’t a big deal for them — it’s a weak class and not many players fit what they’re looking for. If they keep both picks, waive Graham and Charles Bassey (non-guaranteed), and extend qualifying offers to Sandro Mamukelashvili and Dominick Barlow, they’d have have about $14-15MM in cap room, plus the $8MM room exception. Using that financial flexibility to take on an unwanted contract or two in order to add more draft assets is probably a likelier outcome than signing veterans.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Devonte’ Graham ($9,800,000)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above. Graham’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 1.
  • Julian Champagnie ($3,000,000)
    • Champagnie’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1.
  • Charles Bassey ($2,500,000)
    • Bassey’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through August 1.
  • Jamaree Bouyea (two-way)
  • RaiQuan Gray (two-way)
  • Total: $15,300,000

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 4 overall pick ($9,131,760)
  • No. 8 overall pick ($6,281,280)
  • No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 48 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $15,413,040

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Devonte’ Graham (veteran)
  • Cedi Osman (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

  • Cedi Osman ($12,765,800 cap hold): Bird rights
  • Total (cap holds): $12,765,800

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Spurs project to operate under the cap. If they were to operate over the cap, they’d lose the room exception and would have access to the mid-level exception ($12,859,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,681,000).

  • Room exception: $8,006,000

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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Community Shootaround: Timberwolves/Mavericks Series

May 21st, 2024 at 10:34am CST by Luke Adams

The Timberwolves and Mavericks were considered two of the Western Conference’s most disappointing teams at this time last spring. The Wolves, who had mortgaged their future in order to acquire Rudy Gobert during the 2022 offseason, barely finished above .500 (42-40) and were quickly dispatched in the first round of the 2023 playoffs. Dallas didn’t even make the play-in tournament after going into a tailspin following the midseason acquisition of Kyrie Irving and posting an unimpressive 38-44 record

What a difference a year makes.

All the pieces came together in Minnesota during the Wolves’ second year with Gobert, as the team got off to a 17-4 start and held a top-three seed in the West for nearly the entire season, led by rising superstar Anthony Edwards, All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns, and the NBA’s No. 1 defense.

In Dallas, Luka Doncic and Irving thrived after getting an offseason and training camp together, and the Mavericks really hit their stride during the final two months of the season after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford in a pair of trade deadline deals.

The two teams, who each had a projected over/under of 44.5 wins entering the fall, comfortably exceeded expectations in the regular season and have dispatched a pair of tough opponents in the playoffs. The Wolves made quick work of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and the Suns in round one before knocking off the defending-champion Nuggets in round two. The Mavs, meanwhile, beat the Clippers in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 series and then got past the No. 1 Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals.

It sets up a fascinating Western Conference finals between two teams whose histories of deep postseason runs are pretty limited. The Mavericks have made the NBA Finals just twice since their inception in 1980, winning one title in 2011. The Timberwolves’ playoff history is even less inspiring — this is just the second time in their 35-year existence they’ve made the Western finals, and they’ve never advanced further than that.

This year’s Timberwolves might be the best team in franchise history though, with Mike Conley organizing an offense led by a pair of talented scorers in Edwards and Towns, while four-time Defensive Player of the Year Gobert anchors a defense that features perimeter stoppers such as Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Throw in Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid and jack-of-all-trades veteran wing Kyle Anderson and the Wolves have one of the NBA’s deepest, most versatile postseason rotations.

Minnesota had the NBA’s third-best net rating (+6.3) during the regular season and has improved that mark to +8.5 (No. 2 in the league) during the playoffs, ranking first in the West in both offensive rating (116.1) and defensive rating (107.6) in the postseason. As the higher seed in the Western finals, the Wolves will also have home court advantage in the series.

Given all those factors, it’s no surprise that Minnesota is viewed as the solid favorite entering the Western finals. BetOnline.ag has the Wolves listed at -182 to advance to the NBA Finals, with Dallas at +162.

The Mavericks are a tough opponent to beat when they’re firing on all cylinders though. In Doncic and Irving, they have two elite shot-makers who can wear down even the best of defenses and who don’t mind having the ball in their hands with the game on the line. Dallas’ two star guards are complemented by versatile forwards Washington and Derrick Jones, who have both been reliable threats from beyond the three-point line during the playoffs, as well as Gafford and Dereck Lively, a pair of rim-running centers who are capable of protecting the paint on defense.

Not having Maxi Kleber (shoulder) will hurt, but the Mavs have decent frontcourt depth without him, and there’s a chance he could be back later in the series. If role players like Josh Green and Tim Hardaway Jr. are playing well, it could help make up for Kleber’s absence.

Josh Robbins, Sam Amick, and Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic spoke to a scout, a coach, and an executive about the Western Conference showdown and all three picked the Timberwolves. But they all expect the series to last six games, and that was a common theme in ESPN’s expert predictions as well — nine of ESPN’s 15 respondents chose the Wolves, but not one of the 15 expects the series to be over in fewer than six games.

We want to know what you think. After knocking off the champs, is Minnesota headed to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history? Or will the Mavs pull off the upset? Will the winner of this series win the 2024 championship?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions for the series!

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Early NBA Salary Guarantee Dates For 2024/25

May 20th, 2024 at 11:57am CST by Luke Adams

An NBA player who has a non-guaranteed salary for a given season will, by default, receive his full guarantee if he remains under contract through January 7 of that league year. Because the league-wide salary guarantee date is January 10, a player must clear waivers before that date if a team wants to avoid being on the hook for his full salary.

However, a number of players who have non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts for 2024/25 have earlier trigger dates. Those players will receive either their full guarantee or a partial guarantee on certain dates before January 7, assuming they’re not waived.

These dates are fairly malleable — if a player and team reach an agreement, a salary guarantee deadline can be pushed back.

For example, if a player’s contract calls for him to receive his full guarantee on June 27, his team could ask him to move that date to the first or second week of July to get a better sense of what will happen in free agency before making a final decision. The player doesn’t have to agree, but it might be in his best interest to push back his guarantee date rather than simply being waived.

Those agreements between a player and team aren’t always reported right away, so our list of early salary guarantee dates is a tentative one. When a player’s salary guarantee date passes, our assumption is that he received his guarantee, but it’s possible he and his team negotiated a new guarantee date that simply hasn’t been made public yet. We’ll update the info below as necessary in the coming weeks and months.

Here are the early salary guarantee dates for 2024/25:

June 24

  • Kevon Looney (Warriors): Partial guarantee ($3,000,000) increases to full guarantee ($8,000,000). (✅)

June 28

  • Bojan Bogdanovic (Knicks): Partial guarantee ($2,000,000) increases to full guaranteed ($19,032,850). (✅)
    • Note: Bogdanovic’s salary was guaranteed as part of a trade to the Nets.
  • Seth Curry (Hornets): Non-guaranteed salary ($4,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Lauri Markkanen (Jazz): Partial guarantee ($6,000,000) increases to full guarantee ($18,044,544). (✅)
  • T.J. McConnell (Pacers): Partial guarantee ($5,000,000) increases to full guarantee ($9,300,000). (✅)
  • Josh Minott (Timberwolves): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,019,699) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

June 29

  • Dante Exum (Mavericks): Non-guaranteed salary ($3,150,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Jock Landale (Rockets): Non-guaranteed salary ($8,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Garrison Mathews (Hawks): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,230,253) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

June 30

  • Troy Brown (Pistons): Non-guaranteed salary ($4,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Alex Caruso (Thunder): Partial guarantee ($3,000,000) increases to full guarantee ($9,890,000). (✅)
  • Jaden Hardy (Mavericks): Partial guarantee ($400,000) increases to full guaranteed ($2,019,699). (✅)
  • Caleb Houstan (Magic): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,019,699) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Chris Paul (Warriors): Non-guaranteed salary ($30,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)

July 8

  • Devonte’ Graham (Hornets): Partial guarantee ($2,850,000) increases to full guarantee ($12,650,000). (❌)
  • A.J. Green (Bucks): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,120,693) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (Hornets): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,273,252) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)

July 11

  • Jeff Green (Rockets): Non-guaranteed salary ($8,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 13

  • Landry Shamet (Wizards): Non-guaranteed salary ($11,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)

July 15

July 16

  • Jericho Sims (Knicks): Partial guarantee ($651,180) increases to $1,302,359. (✅)

July 18

  • Bryce McGowens (Hornets): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,019,699) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)

July 20

  • Toumani Camara (Trail Blazers): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,891,857) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Jabari Walker (Trail Blazers): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,019,699) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)

July 23

July 25

  • Darius Bazley (Jazz): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,463,946) becomes partially guaranteed ($400,000). (❌)
  • Kenneth Lofton (Jazz): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,120,693) becomes partially guaranteed ($400,000). (❌)

August 1

  • Charles Bassey (Spurs): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,500,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Julian Champagnie (Spurs): Non-guaranteed salary ($3,000,000) becomes fully guaranteed. (✅)
  • Bruno Fernando (Hawks): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,717,391) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)

August 16

  • Jericho Sims (Knicks): Partial guarantee ($1,302,359) increases to full guarantee ($2,092,344). (✅)

October 22

  • Dalano Banton (Trail Blazers): Partial guarantee ($217,533) increases to $1,098,485. (✅)
  • Onuralp Bitim (Bulls): Non-guaranteed salary ($1,891,857) becomes partially guaranteed ($350,000). (❌)
  • Kendall Brown (Pacers): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,120,693) becomes partially guaranteed ($250,000). (❌)
  • Keon Johnson (Nets): Partial guarantee ($250,000) increases to $700,000. (✅)
  • Eugene Omoruyi (Wizards): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,196,970) becomes partially guaranteed ($1,000,000). (❌)
  • Matt Ryan (Pelicans): Non-guaranteed salary ($2,196,970) becomes fully guaranteed. (❌)
  • Jalen Wilson (Nets): Partial guarantee ($75,000) increases to $325,000. (✅)
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Community Shootaround: Celtics/Pacers Series

May 20th, 2024 at 10:46am CST by Luke Adams

The two teams that will square off in the Eastern Conference finals this spring have benefited from some injury luck in recent weeks.

After dominating the Eastern Conference during the regular season, the Celtics were rewarded with a first-round matchup against a Heat team missing Jimmy Butler and a second-round series against a Cavaliers squad playing without its starting center (Jarrett Allen) for all five games, as well as its leading scorer (Donovan Mitchell) for the last two.

The Pacers have also defeated a pair of foes missing key players during this postseason. Indiana’s first-round victory came against a Milwaukee team that was playing without two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, and its second-round win came against the Knicks, who didn’t have Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson available for most or all of the series.

Teams can only beat the opponents in front of them, so I’m not here to run down either of the East’s two clubs left standing. But if the two teams avoid injuries going forward, this series will represent a new challenge for the Celtics and Pacers.

Of course, the challenge is a more daunting one for the Pacers, who weren’t supposed to be here. Indiana’s over/under for 2023/24 last fall was 38.5 wins. And while the Pacers got off to a strong start, added Pascal Siakam via trade, and comfortably surpassed that win total, they weren’t exactly dominant during the regular season. If not for a victory in their 82nd game, they would’ve been a play-in team. They ranked a modest 10th in the NBA in net rating (+2.9) and just 24th in defensive rating (117.6). They’ll enter this series as major underdogs (+600, per BetOnline.ag).

The Celtics, meanwhile, posted the third-best regular season net rating in NBA history (+11.7), finishing with the league’s No. 1 offensive rating (122.2) and No. 2 defensive rating (110.6). They wobbled slightly in both playoff series, losing Game 2 at home to both the Heat and Cavaliers, and perhaps weren’t quite as dominant against opponents ravaged by injuries as Boston fans would’ve liked to see. But it’s not like they were in any real danger in either round — the Celtics’ +12.8 postseason net rating is even better than their regular season mark.

Still, there are reasons to believe this series could be a competitive one. For one, Boston is still missing Kristaps Porzingis, who was out for the second round due to a calf strain. The latest updates on Porzingis suggest he could return at some point in the Eastern Conference finals, but likely not for either of the first two games at home. As long as he remains on the shelf, the Celtics will miss Porzingis’ rim protection against a Pacers offense that was the NBA’s second-best during the regular season and has been the league’s top unit during the playoffs.

As Jay King and Jared Weiss detail for The Athletic, the Pacers’ bench has been a real strength in the team’s first two postseason series. T.J. McConnell has been impressive leading a second unit that also features sharpshooter Ben Sheppard (.474 3PT% in 13 playoff games) and Obi Toppin (11.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG in just 19.0 MPG). The Celtics have good depth too, but their second unit isn’t quite as strong with Al Horford moved into the starting lineup in place of Porzingis.

King and Weiss also point out that the Pacers would benefit from being able to control the pace in the series. Only the Wizards played at a faster pace than Indiana during the regular season, while Boston ranked in the bottom half of the league in that category — and ranks dead last during the playoffs.

We want to know what you think. Do you see the Pacers pulling off another upset, or is this where their Cinderella run ends? Will Porzingis’ availability – or lack thereof – be a deciding factor, or can the Celtics win this series without him? Do you expect the winner of this series to be the NBA’s 2024 champion?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions on the Eastern Conference finals!

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

May 19th, 2024 at 12:42pm CST by Rory Maher

The 2023 offseason was one of the most dramatic in Trail Blazers history. Never able to find optimal complementary pieces around Damian Lillard during his 11 years with the franchise, Portland decided to keep the No. 3 overall pick and draft Scoot Henderson instead of, perhaps, finding immediate help using the selection on the trade market, as the seven-time All-NBA guard had hoped.

Lillard responded by requesting a trade, which is seemingly what general manager Joe Cronin was hoping for, even if he’d never admit that publicly. It’s not like it was a surprising outcome. Having the No. 3 overall pick in what was considered a strong draft is a rare opportunity. Not using it for veteran help was essentially a bet against Lillard’s future and an acknowledgement of the state of the roster at the time.

I’m not saying Cronin was wrong to feel that way. Nor was Lillard wrong for asking out. The two sides were just on drastically different timelines. Lillard is a small, offense-first guard who relies on athleticism to get separation and draw fouls. He turns 34 in July.

Portland already had Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, two young scoring guards, on the roster before they chose Henderson, another guard. The writing was on the wall.

2023/24 was an injury-riddled season for the Blazers, who finished just 21-61, tied for the second-worst mark in franchise history. Trade acquisition Robert Williams played only six games before undergoing season-ending knee surgery. Malcolm Brogdon, who was also acquired from Boston in the Jrue Holiday deal, played 39. Sharpe played 32. Simons, 46. Jerami Grant, 54. Deandre Ayton, 55. Henderson, 62.

The Blazers have made a habit of tanking in the second half of the past few seasons, so it’s fair to wonder how many of those injuries were really serious. But the end result was their top rotation players simply didn’t play many games together.

Portland endured four losing streaks of seven-plus games and ended the season on a five-game skid. The team’s -9.0 net rating was identical to that of the last-place Pistons.

Young point guards often struggle as rookies, and Henderson was no exception. Most advanced stats say he was among the worst — if not the worst — rotation regulars in the NBA last season. His .489 True Shooting percentage was particularly dreadful, ranking dead last among all qualifying players.

In addition to their own pick (No. 7 overall), the Blazers control a second lottery selection, No. 14 overall (via Golden State). In a draft that is viewed as being light on top-end talent, the Blazers could go in a number of different directions with those selections. Adding another young guard probably doesn’t make much sense, but anything else is probably on the table.

Despite the abysmal season, there is an interesting mix of young and veteran talent on Portland’s roster. Grant would intrigue a number of contending teams. Same for Brogdon. While he’s a major negative on defense, Simons is a very talented offensive player and could continue to get better. Ayton doesn’t have positive value on his current deal, but he’s still a good player. Henderson disappointed as a rookie, yet plenty of people thought he was the best prospect besides Victor Wembanyama in last year’s draft. Sharpe arguably has the most upside of anyone on the roster and the best chance of being a No. 1 scorer on a great team, and he’s only 20.

The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan

As things currently stand, the Trail Blazers project to be over the luxury tax line, which is tentatively set at $171.3MM for ’24/25. They are also facing a minor roster crunch, with 11 players on guaranteed salaries, two lottery picks with guaranteed salary slots, two second-round picks (Nos. 34 and 40) with non-guaranteed slots, the non-guaranteed salaries of Jabari Walker and Toumani Camara, and a team option on Dalano Banton.

Camara is essentially a lock to have his salary guaranteed after a promising rookie campaign, and Walker should feel pretty good about his position too. While Banton had some big games at the end of the season, he also had plenty of clunkers, with an unsustainably high usage rate and very poor overall efficiency. One report said the Blazers are expected to pick up their option on the former second-round pick — I’m not convinced that will happen.

Paying the luxury tax after going 21-61 is not a realistic outcome. That means one of the players making $11MM+ in ’24/25 will likely be traded.

Brogdon is probably the most logical candidate, as he’s on an expiring $22.5MM contract and is also the oldest player on the roster at 31. Moving off that deal would give the Blazers plenty of breathing room below the tax line. It would also remove any concerns about potential extension talks with the ’22/23 Sixth Man of the Year.

However, a report in February stated Portland wants to make a postseason push next season, which is why Grant and Brogdon were not moved before the trade deadline. If that remains the case, maybe Robert Williams ($25.7MM over the next two seasons) or Matisse Thybulle ($22.6MM over the next two seasons, including a player option for ’25/26) will be moved instead.

A healthy Williams would have more trade value than Thybulle, as he’s a better offensive player. But Williams has a long history of knee injuries, having been limited to just 215 regular season games over the course of his six NBA seasons (he has also played 56 playoff contests). The fact that he only played six games last season means his value is likely neutral at best.

Thybulle is what he is at this point — a terrific defender who is a minus on offense. I don’t think the Blazers would get a ton in return for him – possibly a second-rounder or two – but I do think he could net positive assets.

Beginning this summer, teams can use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, bi-annual exception and room exception to acquire players in trades. Both Williams ($12.4MM) and Thybulle ($11MM) would fit cleanly into the non-taxpayer MLE, which is projected to be worth $12.86MM. Considering this year’s free agent class is pretty underwhelming, the possibility of landing Williams or Thybulle could be appealing to rival teams looking for defensive help.

I seem to be a little higher than consensus on Ayton. He is undoubtedly a frustrating player to watch, because it’s plainly obvious that he has the talent to be more productive than he has been to this point in his career. I don’t think he was worth the max offer sheet Indiana gave him a couple years ago (Phoenix quickly matched it). But when he’s fully engaged, he’s a plus starter who contributes on both ends of the court. In 2021, the Suns were two wins away from their first championship with Ayton as their starting center — that wasn’t a coincidence.

That said, to get the best out of the former No. 1 overall pick, you have to involve him in the offense. That hardly happened at all at the beginning of the season, with Portland’s unstructured offense often leading to ball dominance from its perimeter players. Ignoring your highest-paid player isn’t a great recipe for success.

Ayton has shown throughout his career that his game scales well with additional touches, and that was true after the All-Star break, when he averaged 22.7 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting .583% from the field (his free throw rate remained alarmingly low). He was also more locked in defensively during that stretch. If the Blazers really want to push for a play-in spot next year, they need Ayton to be a centerpiece.

I don’t think that will happen. While there’s undeniable talent on the roster, too many of the skill sets are redundant. Almost all of their best players look to score first and only Brogdon is a reliable decision-maker. The Blazers ranked last in the league in assists, assist-to-turnover ratio, 3PT% and 2PT% — it’s impossible to have a functional offense when all of those factors coincide.

None of the young guards are great defenders, and the team was also last in the league in defensive rebounding. You can argue some of the team’s issues stemmed from injuries, and that’s fair to a point. But big picture, I think the whole of the roster is less than the sum of its parts.

The Western Conference is extremely competitive. Teams like San Antonio and Memphis, which struggled mightily in ’23/24, should be better next season. That means Portland will have to have good health and considerable progress from Sharpe and Henderson to have any chance at approaching .500 next season. And .500 was five games back of the West’s final play-in spot in ’23/24.

If the Blazers struggle to open ’24/25 and that continues for a few months, Grant and Brogdon will undoubtedly pop up in trade rumors again, regardless of whether they actually get moved.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jabari Walker ($2,019,699)
    • Walker’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 20.
  • Toumani Camara ($1,891,857)
    • Camara’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 20.
  • Total: $3,911,556

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Dalano Banton ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
    • Banton’s salary would be partially guaranteed for $217,533 if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $2,196,970

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 7 overall pick ($6,856,440)
  • No. 14 overall pick ($4,467,960)
  • No. 34 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $11,324,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Deandre Ayton (veteran)
  • Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
  • Anfernee Simons (veteran)
  • Jabari Walker (veteran)
  • Robert Williams (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Trail Blazers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Trail Blazers project to be over the cap and over the tax line, but below the first apron. In all likelihood, they’ll shed some salary to get out of the tax. If they were to go above the first apron, they’d lose the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and bi-annual exception and would have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $8,778,377
    • Expires on September 27.
  • Trade exception: $862,382
    • Expires on October 1.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

May 18th, 2024 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The Raptors held their own without Kawhi Leonard following their championship season, winning 53 games in 2019/20 after the star forward departed for Los Angeles. And they remained solidly in the Eastern Conference playoff picture after losing Kyle Lowry two years later to the Heat, winning 48 games in ’21/22.

Eventually though, bleeding talent – including former Coach of the Year Nick Nurse last offseason – caught up with the Raptors, who decided during the 2023/24 season to take a step back by trading away impact forwards Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby for packages heavy on young talent and future draft picks.

Having moved on from nearly every player who was part of that 2019 championship team (Chris Boucher is still hanging around, for now), the Raptors bottomed out, losing 19 of their final 21 games to close out the 2023/24 season and finishing with a 25-57 record, their worst mark since 2011.

Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to salvage their 2024 first-round pick, which they traded to San Antonio at the 2023 deadline in a package for Jakob Poeltl. The pick, which was top-six protected, had about a 46% chance to stick with the Raptors, but it ended up slipping to No. 8 on draft lottery day, so it’ll be controlled by the Spurs.

Not having the opportunity to add a potential cornerstone using that lottery pick is discouraging, but president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri has shown in the past that he’s capable of quickly turning around a team’s fortunes, and the Raptors’ roster is hardly devoid of talent. Former Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes is a future star; Immanuel Quickley looks like the club’s point guard of the future; Canadian forward RJ Barrett played some of the best basketball of his career after coming over in the Anunoby trade; 2023 first-rounder Gradey Dick looked much better in the second half of the season than he did in the first; and the duo of Poeltl and Kelly Olynyk makes for a perfectly serviceable NBA center rotation.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan

The good news about the Raptors giving up their 2024 first-round pick is that all of their first-rounders going forward will be unencumbered — if they had kept this year’s pick, they still would’ve owed a lightly protected 2025 first-rounder to the Spurs.

That means that if Toronto wants to lean further into its rebuild and aim for a top pick in the 2025 draft, that’s an option. But given the level of veteran talent already on the roster, it may not be the most viable option unless the Raptors follow up their Anunoby and Siakam trades by continuing to sell off vets for long-term assets.

That approach probably doesn’t make sense. Barnes isn’t going anywhere; Quickly and Barrett probably aren’t either. And it’s not as if the Raptors would get a significant haul back if they put solid but unspectacular players like Poeltl, Olynyk, Bruce Brown, and Boucher on the trade block. So it seems safe to assume that Toronto will use its cap room and its draft picks to attempt to move the retooling process incrementally forward, without skipping steps forward or taking another step backward.

That doesn’t mean no veterans will be dealt though. Boucher, who received inconsistent playing time under first-year head coach Darko Rajakovic last season, is an obvious trade candidate entering a contract year. The Raptors should be able to get a second-round pick or two for him if they take back a less favorable expiring deal (perhaps someone like P.J. Tucker). It’s hard to envision them getting a first-round pick back for Boucher even if they’re willing to take on an onerous multiyear contract, but they could potentially land a more productive player in that scenario.

Brown is another trade candidate worth watching. His $23MM team option for 2024/25 is an overpay, so Toronto will have to decide whether or not it makes sense to pick it up at all. Brown is a useful role player who would have significant value if he was earning about half that price, and the Raptors won’t want to lose him for nothing, but they’ll have to scout the market and make sure they extract positive value for him in a trade before they decide to exercise his option.

For what it’s worth, declining the option doesn’t necessarily mean Toronto won’t get anything back for Brown. Non-Bird rights aren’t worth much for a player coming off a minimum or near-minimum salary, but due to his oversized 2023/24 cap hit, Brown’s Non-Bird rights could accommodate a starting salary worth up to $26.4MM. The versatile wing had plenty of suitors in the range of the full mid-level (approximately $12-13MM) last season — it’s possible the Raptors could use their Non-Bird rights to give him a multiyear deal in that neighborhood and sign-and-trade him to an over-the-cap team intent on using its MLE on someone else.

Poeltl is one more trade candidate to keep an eye on, though I suspect he’s more likely to be dealt at the 2025 deadline or the ’25 offseason unless a really favorable offer emerges this summer.

Quickley and Gary Trent Jr. are the Raptors’ two key free agents. Quickley is restricted, which makes his free agency a little more straightforward, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll come at a team-friendly rate. While offer sheets have become increasingly rare, all it takes is one rival suitor to put pressure on Toronto and jack up Quickley’s price.

It’s safe to assume Quickley’s agents will point to deals signed within the past two years by young guards like Tyler Herro (four years, $120MM), Jordan Poole (four years, $123MM), and Devin Vassell (five years, $135MM) as references for Quickley, who finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting a year ago. The Raptors will argue that Quickley’s résumé isn’t as decorated as that of Herro (2022’s Sixth Man of the Year) or Poole (a key contributor on the Warriors’ 2022 championship team) when they signed their respective extensions, but it’d still be surprising if the young guard gets less than $25MM per year.

Trent is a trickier case. On paper, he looks like an obvious keeper as a 25-year-old who makes three-pointers (38.6% for his career) and has defensive upside. But Trent’s on-court impact has been inconsistent, and depending on his asking price, it’s unclear if it makes sense for the retooling Raptors to invest in him long-term.

As is the case with Brown, Trent is a valuable enough asset that Toronto won’t want to let him go without getting any form of compensation, so perhaps he re-signs with the Raptors at a market-value rate and becomes a potential trade chip sooner rather than later, following in the footsteps of guys like Kyle Kuzma and D’Angelo Russell last year.

While the Raptors don’t control their own lottery pick, they do have a couple selections in the top 31 of this year’s draft, by way of the Pacers (No. 19) and Pistons (No. 31). This year’s draft class may not be elite at the top, but it has solid enough depth, and Toronto will get a couple chances to try to strike gold on a low-cost prospect.

Ujiri and the Raptors often deviate from consensus – most memorably in 2021 by drafting Barnes over Jalen Suggs – so it will be interesting to see how they use those picks. Given how far away they are from contention, they can afford to roll the dice on a younger player rather than going after one who can contribute right away. French forward Tidjane Salaun, Kansas wing Johnny Furphy, Miami swingman Kyshawn George, Pitt guard Carlton Carrington, and G League Ignite forward Tyler Smith are among the players in that range who fit the bill.

Finally, while it may be the most important move the Raptors make this summer, signing Barnes to a rookie scale extension should be fairly straightforward. The step toward stardom that the 22-year-old took in his third season warrants a maximum-salary investment, and no player has ever turned down a max rookie scale extension, so that negotiation shouldn’t be a particularly long one.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Javon Freeman-Liberty ($1,791,857)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above.
  • D.J. Carton (two-way)
  • Mouhamadou Gueye (two-way)
  • Total: $1,791,857

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall pick ($3,475,200 cap hold)
  • No. 31 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $3,475,200

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Scottie Barnes (rookie scale)
  • Chris Boucher (veteran)
  • Gary Trent Jr. (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

  • Will Barton ($2,093,637 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $2,093,637

Note: Barton’s cap hold is on the Raptors’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Raptors project to operate under the cap, though they’ll have the option of remaining over the cap if they retain Brown and Trent. If they were to operate over the cap, they’d lose the room exception and would have access to the mid-level exception ($12,859,000) and three trade exceptions (worth $10,171,292, $1,607,916, and $1,379,527).

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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