Hoops Rumors Originals

Hoops Rumors Originals: 2/16/20 – 2/22/20

February 22nd, 2020 at 4:19pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

Luke Adams broke down the “starter criteria” language that determines exact rookie salaries for this week’s Hoops Rumors Glossary item.
Adams also discussed the projected bi-annual and mid-level exception rates for the 2020/21 season.
Malik Beasley and Jordan McRae number among the Northwest Division free agents-to-be in 2020 who have seen their stock rise this season, Dana Gauruder details in the latest installment of our Free Agent Stock Watch series.
In our lone poll this week, we asked if you thought the NBA should stick with its new All-Star Game format or return to the old methodology.
In our Community Shootaround conversations this week, we asked:
- Can the Grizzlies hold off the Trail Blazers, Spurs and Pelicans to secure a 2020 playoff berth? Or will one of these other teams make a playoff push of their own? (link)
- Who do you think will walk away with Coach of the Year hardware in 2020? (link)
- Can the Rockets succeed in the playoffs without a traditional center? (link)
- Can college coaches really win in the NBA? (link)
- Which of 2019’s free agent signings do you think teams will regret, even if they might not be considered full-fledged mistakes quite yet? (link)

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch 2020: Northwest Division

February 21st, 2020 at 9:56pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Northwest Division:

Malik Beasley, Timberwolves, 23, SG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $7.8MM deal in 2016
Beasley turned down an extension offer with the Nuggets last offseason, which looked like a really bad decision when he struggled to get steady playing time on Denver’s deep bench. Freedom came in the form of a trade with the Timberwolves and Beasley quickly seized the opportunity. He averaged 22.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 3.0 APG in his first three games with his new team. Of course, Minnesota made an even bigger deadline deal. The chemistry that Beasley forms with backourt partner D’Angelo Russell will determine how much Minnesota would be willing to fork up to re-sign the restricted free agent.

Jordan McRae, Nuggets, 28, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $1.65MM deal in 2019
The Nuggets made a series of minor moves prior to the trade deadline. In the short run, the most significant was the acquisition of McRae, who was quietly enjoying a career year with the Wizards. McRae, who also had stints with Cleveland and Phoenix during his NBA career, was averaging 12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG and 2.8 APG in 22.8 MPG with Washington. Stats with bad teams can be shrugged off but McRae, who missed some games with hand and ankle injuries, has a chance to show that he can be a second-unit factor for a quality team. The Nuggets possess his Early Bird rights, which increases the possibility of re-signing him if they like what they see.

Andre Roberson, Thunder, 28, SF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $30MM deal in 2017
It’s sad that Roberson hasn’t been able to resurrect his career after suffering a serious knee injury at Detroit’s Little Caesars Arena in January 2018. There have been many stops and starts during the rehab process since he ruptured his left patella tendon but Roberson has never been able to reach the point where he could play again. Oklahoma City was unable to move his expiring contract before the trade deadline. The last update on Roberson was that he was continuing his rehab in Los Angeles but there’s a strong possibility that the one-time lockdown defender has played his last NBA game.

Emmanuel Mudiay, Jazz, 23, PG (Down) – Signed to one-year, $1.74MM deal in 2019
Mudiay, the seventh overall pick of the 2015 draft, was signed as a backup to Mike Conley and was playing around 20 MPG until Conley returned from his latest injury. Mudiay hasn’t seen the floor for more than 15 minutes since mid-January and that’s not going to change when Conley suits up. Mudiay posted a career year statistically with the woeful Knicks last season but they didn’t make him a qualifying offer, which thrust him into unrestricted free agency. He can stick around the league for awhile if he’s willing to accept short-term, minimum-salary deals.

Mario Hezonja, Trail Blazers, 24, SF (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $3.66MM deal in 2019
Hezonja was hoping last summer that the Knicks would re-sign him. The call never came and Hezonja, who started 24 games with New York last season, wound up signing a two-year, minimum-salary contract with Portland. Hezonja, who is currently nursing an ankle injury, was playing regularly but not effectively before the team signed Carmelo Anthony. When he’s gotten opportunities to shoot it, he hasn’t been able to knock them down (38.5% overall, 28.4% from distance). Hezonja holds a $1.978MM player option on his contract for next season and it will be interesting to see if he opts in or chooses to see if another franchise will give him a chance to play regularly.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: 2019 Free Agency Mistakes

February 20th, 2020 at 6:58pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s 2019 free agent frenzy took place less than eight months ago, and many of the players signed at that time made their regular-season debuts with new teams less than four months ago. However, it’s already clear that some of the signings completed last July were ill-advised.

The Kings, for instance, are almost certainly regretting investing in Dewayne Dedmon on a three-year, $40MM contract with nearly $28MM in guaranteed money. Dedmon was expected to be the club’s starting center this season, but lasted just four games in that role before being supplanted by Richaun Holmes, who signed a far more team-friendly deal around the same time. Sacramento ultimately surrendered a pair of future second-round picks to get out from under Dedmon’s contract at the trade deadline.

While the Kings were at least able to find a taker for Dedmon, that wasn’t the case for the Spurs with DeMarre Carroll — the two sides reached a buyout agreement this week. Most players who are bought out at this time of year are on expiring deals, but Carroll – who signed a three-year, $21MM pact with San Antonio last summer – still had a fully guaranteed 2020/21 salary and partial guarantee for 2021/22.

Carroll gave back a little money when he was cut this week, but it was still a costly mistake for the Spurs — particularly since agreeing to sign both Carroll and Marcus Morris in the offseason resulted in the team trading away Davis Bertans to accommodate both incoming forwards. Morris reneged on his tentative agreement with the Spurs days later, and now Carroll is gone as well.

The Dedmon and Carroll signings are two of the most obvious failed free agency moves from the 2019 offseason, but they won’t be the only ones.

The Bulls, for instance, may want a do-over on their three-year, $40.6MM ($32.4MM guaranteed) deal with Thaddeus Young. The Sixers and Kings might not invest so heavily on their four-year contracts for Al Horford and Harrison Barnes if given a second chance. The Knicks‘ free agent signings won’t hurt them much because they’re all short-term, but besides Morris, it’s not clear that any of those veterans will turn into a long-term keeper or a valuable trade chip.

We want to hear your thoughts. Which of 2019’s free agent signings do you think teams will regret, even if they might not be considered full-fledged mistakes quite yet? Are there any long-term contracts signed in 2019 that will be viewed as albatross deals in a year or two?

Check out our free agent tracker from the 2019 offseason to refresh your memory, and head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Community Shootaround: Can College Coaches Win In The NBA?

February 19th, 2020 at 11:13pm CST by Arthur Hill

In John Beilein’s case, the doubters turned out to be right.

After four decades in the college game, the 67-year-old coach wasn’t able to handle the adjustment to the NBA. The lifestyle, the personalities and the expectations of his players were all foreign to Beilein, who built his reputation guiding athletes between the ages of 18 and 22.

While he had his share of those with the rebuilding project in Cleveland, the atmosphere is different in the NBA. The coaches have all the power in college, but in the pro ranks the balance shifts to the players, who weren’t receptive to long practices and intense film sessions in the midst of an already-grueling 82-game schedule. Beilein seemed out of place both on and off the court as he tried to adapt to the game strategies and player management techniques of a league that was totally new to him.

Beilein resigned today in a move that everyone knew was coming. His 14-40 record and a growing litany of player complaints made the parting inevitable.

He becomes the latest successful NCAA coach to crash and burn in the NBA, joining a large group that includes John Calipari (72-112 with the Nets), Rick Pitino (192-220 with the Knicks and Celtics), Tim Floyd (90-231 with the Bulls and Hornets) and Jerry Tarkanian (9-11 in a brief 20-game stay with the Spurs).

But regardless of the results, some NBA teams believe the solution to their problems can be found on a college campus. The Knicks, for example, reportedly expressed interest in both Calipari and Villanova’s Jay Wright to take over the team next year.

The Celtics’ Brad Stevens, one of the few to successfully transition from college to the NBA, met with Beilein in the summer of 2018 while he was considering an opportunity with the Pistons. Stevens, who reached the NCAA title game twice at Butler, talked to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com in October about how to he was able to make the transition work.

“I think one of the great things about being here (in Boston) is that we have unbelievable leadership in our front office and ownership and they don’t ride the highs and lows — a game, a week, a month, they just kind of stay the course,” Stevens said. “I really appreciate that. You feel empowered to work in that environment. … If you’re looking at it coming from a college situation where you have a lot of job security I think the question you want to know is, ‘there will be ups and downs and is it going to be something they recognize they can’t overreact to one bad week or bad month?’”

We want to get your opinion. Is it a mistake for NBA teams to look to the college ranks for head coaches? Or are there a lot more potential success stories out there like Stevens just waiting for an opportunity? Please leave your responses in the space below.

Mid-Level, Bi-Annual Projections For 2020/21

February 18th, 2020 at 12:14pm CST by Luke Adams

Under the NBA’s previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, the values of various exceptions like the mid-level and bi-annual were established years in advance, but the league’s current CBA tweaked how those exceptions are calculated.

Rather than being determined ahead of time, the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions – along with several other cap-related figures and exceptions – are dependent on the movement of the salary cap from year to year. If the cap increases by 5% from one league year to the next, the exceptions increase by the same rate.

As such, we don’t know yet exactly what those exceptions will be worth in 2020/21, but we can make an educated estimate. The NBA’s most recent cap projections called for a $115MM cap for next season. That would be approximately a 5.4% increase on this year’s $109.14MM cap. If that projection holds, the values of the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would increase by about 5.4% too.

Based on a $115MM cap, here’s what the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions would look like in 2020/21:

Mid-Level Exception

Year	Standard MLE	Taxpayer MLE	Room MLE
2020/21	$9,755,000	$6,025,000	$5,023,000
2021/22	$10,242,750	$6,326,250	$5,274,150
2022/23	$10,730,500	$6,627,500	–
2023/24	$11,218,250	–	–
Total	$41,946,500	$18,978,750	$10,297,150

The standard mid-level exception is available to over-the-cap teams that haven’t dipped below the cap to use room and don’t go over the tax apron. It can run for up to four years, with 5% annual raises. The majority of NBA teams are expected to have this exception available next season, since most will be over the cap but only a few will be in the tax.

The taxpayer mid-level exception is for in-the-tax teams, or teams that want the flexibility to surpass the tax apron later. It can run for up to three years, with 5% annual raises.

The room exception is for teams that go under the cap and use their space. Once they’ve used all their cap room, they can use this version of the mid-level exception, which runs for up to two years with 5% annual raises.

Bi-Annual Exception

Year	BAE Value
2019/20	$3,818,000
2020/21	$4,008,900
Total	$7,826,900

The bi-annual exception is only available to teams that are over the cap and under the tax apron. It can also only be used once every two years, which will disqualify the Mavericks, Pistons, Grizzlies, and Raptors from using it in 2020/21 — they all used their BAE in 2019/20.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Small-Ball Rockets

February 17th, 2020 at 8:02pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The NBA doesn’t return to action until Thursday but the Rockets made some noise on Monday.

They agreed to a 10-day contract with Jeff Green, who could eventually sign for the remainder of the season. It was also revealed that another veteran forward, DeMarre Carroll, intends to sign with them once he clears waivers. Carroll reached a buyout agreement with the Spurs on Monday.

These developments are a clear signal that the Rockets are going all-in on their small-ball approach. They traded Clint Capela to the Hawks, in part to get out from his long-term deal and dodge the luxury tax. But they’ve also seen that they can win games with the likes of P.J. Tucker and Danuel House manning the power positions.

The Rockets have two of the league’s premier guards in former MVPs James Harden and Russell Westbrook and conventional wisdom would say they would be complemented by a quality big man or two. Mike D’Antoni has a couple of traditional big men at his disposal in Isaiah Hartenstein and Tyson Chandler but instead has decided to go with an interchangeable group of forwards. Recently-acquired three-and-D wing Robert Covington is another key piece in this approach.

Houston has championship aspirations but currently sits fifth in the Western Conference standings behind the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets and Jazz. The Clippers are the only member of that quartet that doesn’t have a dominant big man, though reserve Montrezl Harrell comes pretty close. The Lakers, of course, have superstar Anthony Davis. Nikola Jokic is the Nuggets’ top player and Rudy Gobert collects Defensive Player of the Year awards for the Jazz.

No matter which team the Rockets face, they’ll have to figure out a way to guard those players and hold their own on the boards. Or perhaps they’ll just anticipate they can run and space the floor so adeptly, they’ll neutralize them and force the opposition to go smaller.

Anyway, it should be fascinating how this plays out. This leads to our question of the day: Can the Rockets succeed in the playoffs without a traditional center?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Starter Criteria

February 17th, 2020 at 11:56am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players once they’re eligible for restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.

A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2018/19 and 32 in 2019/20, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria impacts the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- Note: For the summer of 2020, the value of this QO will be $4,642,800.
- Example: Spurs center Jakob Poeltl (2016’s No. 9 overall pick) won’t meet the starter criteria this season. As a result, he’ll be eligible for a QO worth $4,642,800 instead of $5,087,871.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- Note: For the summer of 2020, the value of this QO will be $5,087,871.
- Example: Suns forward Dario Saric (2014’s No. 12 overall pick, who signed his rookie scale contract in 2016) met the starter criteria by starting at least 41 games this season. As a result, he’ll be eligible for a QO worth $5,087,871 instead of $4,791,213.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- Note: For the summer of 2020, the value of this QO will be $3,126,948.
- Example: No second-round pick or undrafted player who can be an RFA this summer has met the starter criteria yet. In theory, players like Nuggets wing Torrey Craig (19 starts) and Pelicans forward Kenrich Williams (18 starts) could still get there.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player who is eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

During the 2018 offseason, for instance, Rodney Hood accepted his qualifying offer, which was worth $3,472,888. Hood was nagged by injuries during the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency and was limited to just 119 total games, including 78 starts. If he had started four more games during that two-year stretch, he would have met the starter criteria and bumped the value of his QO up to $4,749,591, which could have changed the way his free agency played out.

We’ll revisit the starter criteria at season’s end to see which potential restricted free agents will have their qualifying offers impacted by meeting – or failing to meet – the starter criteria. So far, of this year’s RFAs-to-be, only Saric and Brandon Ingram have met it.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

An earlier version of this post was published in 2019 by Luke Adams.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Should NBA Stick With New All-Star Format?

February 17th, 2020 at 8:25am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA first announced last month that it was making changes to the All-Star Game format for 2020, those changes were met with skepticism — and with plenty of jokes about how convoluted the quarterly mini-games and fourth-quarter target score sounded.

However, the general consensus after Sunday night’s game is that the new format worked much better in practice than in theory. Since the team that won each quarter earned $100K for its charity, the end of each quarter essentially turned into “crunch time.” That was especially true in the third quarter when Team Giannis executed a Trae Young/Rudy Gobert lob with 2.2 seconds left to tie the score at 41.

The fourth-quarter target score then inspired both teams to go into lockdown mode on defense in the final moments of the game. As Team Giannis and Team LeBron vied to get to 157 points, the effort level increased and the game got more physical, as players dove for loose balls and drew offensive fouls. Against increased pressure, the two teams shot just 35.5% from the floor in the fourth quarter, compared to 55.5% in the first three.

The reviews for the format were almost unanimously positive. Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today suggested the game was “one of the more entertaining and competitive All-Star Games in the past decade.” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said the fourth quarter featured the “most intense play this weekend has seen in decades.” Zach Kram of The Ringer wrote that the changes “brought an unexpected playoff atmosphere to an exhibition game typically defined, in part, by a distinct lack of intensity.”

And it wasn’t just media members that were in favor of the changes. Giannis Antetokounmpo said he “loved” the new format and hopes it sticks around (video link via Ben Golliver of The Washington Post). Joel Embiid said in a tweet that it was the “best All-Star Game ever.” Several non-All-Stars around the NBA – including Myles Turner, Lou Williams, Evan Fournier, and others – complimented the changes as well, as ESPN details.

Still, it wasn’t entirely perfect. The game ended when an Anthony Davis free throw pushed Team LeBron’s score from 156 to 157, which was a little anti-climactic. A number of players suggested after the game that they’d rather not see the game end on a foul shot.

If the NBA considers changing that rule, the challenge would be finding a solution that would still disincentivize late-game fouling. Turning every late-game foul into a side-out, non-shooting foul would encouraging the losing team to maul any shooter who might have an open look.

One possible solution, as relayed by Mavericks executive Haralabos Voulgaris (via Twitter), would be for end-of-game free throws to take away points from the losing team rather than add them to the winning team. Even in that scenario though, it would probably be in the losing team’s best interest to foul on a potential game-winning shot.

The target-score ending also may not have been considered such a success if the game hadn’t been so close. Getting to a next-basket-wins scenario was the ideal outcome for the NBA, but the excitement level wouldn’t have been as high if one team had won by 15 or 20 points. Of course, the same could be said of the traditional format.

In the wake of one of the NBA’s most exciting All-Star Games in years, we want to hear your thoughts. Did you like the new format better than the old one? Would you make additional tweaks to the new format?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Community Shootaround: Coach Of The Year Favorites

February 16th, 2020 at 5:37pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

This season, the Coach of the Year race appears to have plenty of intriguing candidates. With the All-Star break upon us, we at Hoops Rumors deemed it a good time to reflect on where things stand currently.

Mike Budenholzer is leading the 46-8 Bucks towards potentially the NBA’s third-ever 70+ win season. Superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo may win his second consecutive MVP award under Budenholzer’s tutelage, while wing Khris Middleton has made his second straight All-Star team.

In their second year under Nick Nurse, the Raptors are miraculously on pace for a better record than they had during a champion run last year, minus 2019 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. Pascal Siakam has blossomed into an All-Star starter. Fellow All-Star Kyle Lowry has remained a steadying presence on the court. Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Norman Powell have all taken notable leaps.

Erik Spoelstra has coached the new-look Heat to a 35-19 record in the East, helped center Bam Adebayo become a first-time All-Star, and made the most out of promising rookies Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn, plus second-year sharpshooter Duncan Robinson.

The Celtics lost Kyrie Irving and Al Horford to free agency over the summer, and signed Kemba Walker in Irving’s stead. Team chemistry appears to have improved significantly, and coach Brad Stevens has helped Walker return to the All-Star game and Jayson Tatum make his first appearance in the big show, while leading Boston to a 38-16 record (including a recent eight-game win streak).

Though the Lakers missed out on signing priority head coach options Tyronn Lue and Monty Williams over the summer, their supposed “consolation” option Frank Vogel has impressed in his first season with the team. The Lakers have a 41-12 record, tops in the West thus far, and have been able to incorporate several mercurial veterans into an upbeat, defensive-oriented locker room atmosphere.

There are several contenders elsewhere in the NBA. Billy Donovan has helped take the Thunder to a surprisingly robust 33-22 record. Rick Carlisle has brought the Mavericks back to the thick of the playoff hunt with an identical record to the Thunder’s and helped Luka Doncic become a first-time All-Star starter. 35-year-old coach Taylor Jenkins has brought the young Grizzlies back to relevance after the team offloaded former franchise cornerstones Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in 2019.

Who do you think will walk away with Coach of the Year hardware in 2020? Let us know!

Community Shootaround: Will The Grizzlies Make The Playoffs?

February 16th, 2020 at 4:40pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Led by stellar seasons from Rookie of the Year frontrunner Ja Morant and second-year big man Jaren Jackson Jr., the 28-26 Grizzlies have a solid lead in the race for the West’s No. 8 seed in the 2020 playoffs.

Burly veteran center Jonas Valančiūnas has proved to be a perfect frontcourt complement to Jackson. Young players like rookie power forward Brandon Clarke, third-year wing Dillon Brooks and second-year point guard De’Anthony Melton have all shown promise too.

Unfortunately, the Grizzlies will also be up against the NBA’s toughest post-All Star break schedule, per Tankathon, as they wrap up what has to this point been an exciting season. Schedule strength is determined by combining the winning percentage for all of a team’s upcoming opponents.

Among Memphis’ most intimidating future combatants down the home stretch are the 46-8 Bucks, the 41-12 Lakers (twice), the 40-15 Raptors (twice), and the 38-16 Celtics.

The No. 11-seeded Pelicans, with a 23-32 record, have the easiest schedule remaining in the league. The No. 9-seeded Trail Blazers (25-31) have the sixth-hardest road ahead. The No. 10-seeded Spurs (23-31) boast the 11th-easiest schedule. Memphis is currently in the No. 8 seed, but maybe these more favorable schedules (and the health of a certain rookie in New Orleans) will give one of the teams breathing down the Grizzlies’ necks an opportunity to snatch the seed.

We want to hear what you think. Can the new-look Grizzlies continue their recent string of success and hold off the Blazers, Spurs and Pelicans to secure a 2020 playoff berth? Or will one of these other teams make a playoff push of their own?

Weigh in with your thoughts below!

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