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Following Specific Players On Hoops Rumors

January 19th, 2020 at 9:18am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors makes it easy to keep up with your favorite NBA teams as they plot their next moves, and we also provide multiple ways to follow the latest updates on all of your favorite players, including the top free agents and trade candidates from around the league.

You can get news about players wherever you go with our Trade Rumors app, available for iOS and Android devices. The app is free and allows you to add a feed for any player and set up notifications that will alert you whenever we write about him. It’s the easiest way to keep tabs on specific players.

If you’re using the desktop or mobile version of our site, there are other ways to follow your favorite player(s). Every player we’ve written about has his own rumors page. You can find any player by using our search box, by clicking his tag at the bottom of a post in which he’s discussed, or by simply typing his name in your address bar after hoopsrumors.com, substituting dashes for spaces. For example, LeBron James‘ page is hoopsrumors.com/lebron-james. Those player pages can be added to RSS readers too.

In addition to players, there are a number of other subjects you can track by clicking on the tags that we use at the bottom of posts. For example, you can keep tabs on our 2020 NBA draft stories right here. Items about the NBA G League can be found on this page. You can simply scan our top stories here.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 1/12/20 – 1/18/20

January 18th, 2020 at 3:48pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2020: Pacific Division

January 17th, 2020 at 9:48pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Southwest Division:

Dwight Howard, Lakers, 34, C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.56MM deal in 2019
Skepticism was rampant when the Lakers brought Howard back. That included the team’s front office, who gave him a non-guaranteed veteran’s minimum deal. Instead of quickly wearing out his welcome, Howard has been wearing out second-unit centers. In the last three games, Howard has averaged 14 PPG and 15 RPG. Injuries limited Howard to nine games with Washington last season but the future Hall-of-Famer has proven he can accept a bench role and still have a major impact on a contending team. He’ll get significantly more than the veteran’s minimum this summer.

Nemanja Bjelica, Kings, 31, PF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $20.5MM deal in 2018
When Bjelica gets rolling, he can be an offensive force. Orlando learned that lesson on Monday when he erupted for 34 points. He’s also had 27- and 30-point games for the Kings this season. Bjelica started regularly for Sacramento last season but he’s turned it up a notch in his second season there, averaging career highs in points (12.2 PPG), rebounds (6.6 RPG) and assists (2.5 APG) while making 43.4% of his long-range attempts. The Kings can retain Bjelica’s services by guaranteeing his $7.15MM salary prior to free agency. He’s making that an easy decision.

Maurice Harkless, Clippers, 26, SF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $42MM deal in 2016
Being the fifth option on the court, especially on a team loaded with scorers like the Clippers, can be tough for many players to accept. Harkless embraces that role, which is why he’s a steady presence in the rotation. He’s averaging 5.5 PPG while playing 22.8 MPG due to his limited opportunities. Harkless’ defensive rating has jumped this season, why is why Doc Rivers keeps calling his number. Harkless is making $11MM this season prior to unrestricted free agency. He’ll have to take a pay cut this summer but he’ll find a second-unit job in the open market.

Dario Saric, Suns, 25, PF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $10.75MM deal in 2016
Saric’s NBA career has gone south after a promising second season in Philadelphia in which he averaged 14.7 PPG and 6.7 RPG while making 39.3% of his 3-pointers. Saric was included in the Jimmy Butler deal with Minnesota last season and was later sent to Phoenix in a draft-night trade. His playing time has fallen substantially this month, including a couple of games in which he barely left the bench. Phoenix can make him a restricted free agent by extending a $4.79MM qualifying offer. It’s likely the Suns will seek an upgrade at power foward and allow Saric to move on.

Alec Burks, Warriors, 28, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.32MM deal in 2019
Burks scored 25 points in an overtime loss to the Nuggets on Thursday after shooting 27.7% from the field and 29.2% from 3-point range in his previous five games. He’s averaging 15.9 PPG but that’s mainly a product of opportunity on a bad team. He’s taking a career-high 12.4 shots per game, including 4.5 from long range. On the flip side, Burks settled for a veteran’s minimum contract last season. He’s done enough to get a better offer as a second-unit scorer, though he’s not going to make $10MM-plus as he did the previous three seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Southwest Division

January 17th, 2020 at 2:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

If the Rockets and Mavericks make moves before the trade deadline, they’ll likely be looking to shore up their rosters in order to make a push to secure a top-four seed in the West. However, in today’s look at Southwest trade candidates, we’re focusing on the division’s other three teams, whose approaches to the deadline remain unclear. Let’s dive in…

DeMarre Carroll, F
San Antonio Spurs
$7MM cap hit; $6.7MM guaranteed salary in 2020/21; $7MM non-guaranteed salary in 2021/22

Nearly a month ago, Carroll acknowledged that he wasn’t playing as much this season as he expected to when he joined the Spurs last summer, and admitted that accepting his reduced role had been “difficult.” Since then, the veteran forward has appeared in four games, logging fewer than 15 total minutes.

There’s been no indication that Carroll has asked the Spurs to trade him, but given his lack of playing time and the team’s up-and-down play this season, it seems safe to assume he wouldn’t object to a change of scenery.

Carroll’s value has probably taken a hit due to his absence from San Antonio’s lineup and his small-sample struggles. The Spurs also aren’t historically very active on the trade market during the season — their last in-season trade was completed in 2014, and that Nando De Colo/Austin Daye swap wasn’t exactly a blockbuster.

With those factors working against a deal, Carroll will probably end up staying put through the deadline. But if San Antonio does make a move, a smaller-scale trade involving a player like Carroll seems more likely than a franchise-changing shake-up involving someone like DeMar DeRozan or LaMarcus Aldridge.

Jae Crowder, F
Memphis Grizzlies
$7.8MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Crowder looked like a more logical trade candidate back on December 7, when the Grizzlies were 6-16 and seemed safely lottery-bound. For teams who perhaps couldn’t afford Andre Iguodala‘s $17MM salary but were seeking a playoff-tested three-and-D wing, Crowder and his expiring contract made all the sense in the world as a potential target.

Since then though, Memphis has won 13 of 19 games, jumping all the way up to No. 8 in the Western Conference, and Crowder has had a major hand in that resurgence, as no Grizzlies player has played more minutes so far this season.

Crowder’s play has earned him “renewed attention” from possible suitors, according to John Hollinger of The Athletic. However, Hollinger doesn’t think the Grizzlies will receive an offer so strong that they’ll feel compelled to move him — especially since re-signing the forward at season’s end isn’t entirely out of the question. At age 29, Crowder isn’t necessarily too old to play alongside the franchise’s young core for a few more years.

Derrick Favors, F/C
New Orleans Pelicans
$17.7MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Like Crowder, Favors is a veteran on an expiring contract who would fit right in on a contender and has been monitored by teams this season. But a handful of factors – including a recent hot streak, a close race for the West’s No. 8 seed, and Zion Williamson‘s impending return – all point toward the Pelicans deciding not to become sellers this winter.

After all, the Pelicans’ 9-3 stretch – following a 7-23 start – has pulled them within 3.5 games of the Grizzlies for that eighth spot in the conference, and selling off veterans now would dampen fans’ rising enthusiasm for the team.

Assuming the Pelicans plan to push for a spot in the postseason, Favors is the team’s most reliable option at the five, as he showed with his 21-point, 11-rebound performance in Thursday’s win over Utah. That’s not to say a trade is out of the question, as Favors is probably more likely to be moved than Jrue Holiday or J.J. Redick. But I get the sense that David Griffin would like to see what this squad can do when it’s fully healthy and may wait until the offseason to make any serious changes.

Revisit the rest of our 2019/20 Trade Candidate series right here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Checking In On NBA’s Two-Way Contracts

January 16th, 2020 at 12:45pm CST by Luke Adams

January 15 was the last day that NBA teams were permitted to sign players to two-way contracts this season. As such, the next time we see a two-way deal finalized will be this summer when the 2020/21 league year begins.

With that in mind, it’s worth checking in on where things stand with the current two-way players around the NBA. Let’s dive in…

All 60 two-way slots have been filled

For much of the season, the Suns only carried one two-way player. A handful of other teams also opened up two-way contract slots in recent weeks. However, all those openings have now been filled, as all 30 NBA teams are carrying a pair of players on two-way contracts. The full list can be found right here.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that those 60 slots will stay filled all season long. A two-way player can still be waived, though there will be little incentive to do so after January 20, when all two-way salaries for the season become guaranteed. A player on a two-way contract can still be promoted to a 15-man roster too — he just can’t be replaced with a new two-way player.

There are still players on two-way contracts who are candidates for standard deals

Some teams, including the Warriors (Damion Lee), Heat (Chris Silva), and Nets (Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot) added standout two-way players to their 15-man rosters via a standard contract or 10-day deal on Wednesday. That allowed those clubs to sign a replacement two-way player in advance of the January 15 deadline. But not every team with a two-way player in its rotation took that approach.

The Sixers, for instance, opted not to convert Norvel Pelle‘s two-way contract to a standard deal on Wednesday, preferring to prioritize roster flexibility as the trade deadline approaches, as Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice.com tweets.

Pelle only has a handful of days left on his 45-day NBA limit and head coach Brett Brown suggested the team plans to play him until he hits that limit (Twitter link via ESPN’s Tim Bontemps). At that point, Pelle will have to remain in the G League until the regular season ends or he receives a promotion to the 15-man roster.

Brandon Goodwin (Hawks), Ky Bowman (Warriors), Garrison Mathews (Wizards), Oshae Brissett (Raptors), and Kelan Martin (Timberwolves) are some of the other candidates to be moved to standard contracts before the season ends.

The league’s newest two-way players will get to spend up to 42 days in the NBA — sort of

As noted above, two-way players are generally limited to spending 45 days with their NBA clubs after the G League season begins and before it ends. However, players who sign two-way deals during the season get a prorated portion of those 45 days, depending on when they sign.

Guys like Marquese Chriss (Warriors), Jeremiah Martin (Nets), Ray Spalding (Hornets), and Paul Watson (Raptors), who finalized their two-way agreements on Wednesday, did so with 92 days left in the 177-day NBA season. As a result, they’ll get to spend up to 24 days (92/177ths of 45 days, rounded up to the nearest whole number) with their NBA teams before the G League regular season ends on March 28.

Once the NBAGL regular season is over, those players will no longer face NBA restrictions and can subsequently spend the season’s last 18 days (from March 29 to April 15) in the NBA.

So, in total, players like Chriss and the rest will be able to spend 42 days in the NBA if they remain on their two-way contracts for the rest of the season. They’ll just be limited to 24 days until the G League season concludes.

Not all two-way players will be free agents at season’s end

Based on reports this week, Kenny Wooten (Knicks) and Matt Mooney (Cavaliers) signed two-way contracts that span two years and won’t expire until the summer of 2021.

Those two-year deals are very team-friendly, since they give players limited leverage in the event they outperform their two-way contracts. But Wooten and Mooney aren’t the only players whose two-way pacts will run through next season. Bol Bol (Nuggets), Marial Shayok (Sixers), Kyle Guy (Kings), Amir Coffey (Clippers), and Devontae Cacok (Lakers) are also on two-year contracts.

Of the NBA’s 60 current two-way players, then, up to 53 have the opportunity to reach unrestricted or restricted free agency by this summer. Those seven players listed above, however, may still occupy two-way slots in 2020/21 without getting the chance to test the market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Northwest Division

January 15th, 2020 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

After identifying three Northwest trade candidates in November and three more in December, including one who was dealt shortly thereafter, we’re returning to the division today to identify another three players who could be dealt by February 6. Let’s dive in…

Robert Covington, F
Minnesota Timberwolves
$11.3MM cap hit; $12.1MM guaranteed salary in 2020/21; $13.0MM guaranteed salary in 2021/22

Covington is one of the more intriguing potential trade chips on the market. Barring a huge second-half push led by Karl-Anthony Towns, the 15-24 Timberwolves are likely lottery-bound, so it makes sense for the team to be sellers at the deadline. However, Covington still has two more years on his contract beyond this season – at a very reasonable price – and is the sort of player a retooling team might want to hang onto.

As a strong perimeter defender and a reliable three-point shooter, Covington should draw interest from virtually every contender. There are some teams that wouldn’t necessarily be suitable trade partners for Minnesota due to a lack of salary-matching options or valuable assets, but it’s hard to find a club that wouldn’t be an on-court fit for the 29-year-old forward.

New Timberwolves president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas spent most of the last two decades with the Rockets, whose front office always prioritized chasing superstars. If Rosas has brought that philosophy to Minnesota, it will be interesting to see what sort of return he’d seek for Covington. Getting a star in return is unlikely, but perhaps the Wolves could acquire draft picks and/or prospects that could be used as the foundation of a package for an impact player down the road.

Juan Hernangomez, PF
Denver Nuggets
$3.3MM cap hit; RFA in 2020

Jerami Grant‘s arrival and Michael Porter Jr.‘s return to health have made the Nuggets a deeper and more dangerous team than they were last season. However, what’s been good for the franchise hasn’t been good for Hernangomez’s playing time — he’s averaging just 11.9 minutes per game and frequently gets DNP-CDs after logging 19.4 MPG in 70 contests a year ago.

Hernangomez, who has played at least 20 minutes in a game just once since December 8, could reclaim an increased role if the Nuggets are hit by injuries at some point, but it’s not as if he’s been all that effective even when he gets to play. His 3.0 PPG, .356 FG%, and .267 3PT% are all career lows.

With potential restricted free agency on tap for Hernangomez this summer, it might be in everyone’s best interests to grant the 24-year-old Spaniard a change of scenery. Unless the Nuggets still envision the fourth-year forward as a long-term rotation player, trying to extract a second-round pick for him now – or including him in a larger package for an upgrade – would make sense.

Justin Patton, C
Oklahoma City Thunder
$1.6MM cap hit; $1.76MM non-guaranteed salary in 2020/21; $1.9MM team option in 2021/22

Patton is the sort of under-the-radar trade candidate whose status is more important for financial reasons than it is for on-court ones. After all, the third-year big man has appeared in just four games this season, playing a total of 14 minutes. He’s not a difference-maker for the Thunder and wouldn’t be more than a project for any team acquiring him.

However, with the Thunder approximately $922K over the tax line – per Early Bird Rights – the idea of moving Patton might appeal to the team. Trading away the 22-year-old at the deadline and then replacing him with a player on a prorated minimum-salary within the next couple weeks would allow Oklahoma City to get out of the tax for the 2019/20 season.

Of course, the penalty for finishing $922K over the tax wouldn’t be significant. But the Thunder have been a taxpayer for the last two years and would be subject to repeater penalties this season – and going forward – if they finish in the tax again this spring. Plus, sneaking below that threshold would mean profiting from the payments made by other taxpayers.

Unless they’re committed to Patton’s development or make another trade that gets them below the tax line, I’d be surprised if the Thunder don’t make a move involving the center.

Revisit the rest of our 2019/20 Trade Candidate series right here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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The Importance Of January 15 For NBA Teams

January 15th, 2020 at 8:13am CST by Luke Adams

Unlike February 6, the date of this season’s trade deadline, January 15 probably isn’t a day that many NBA fans have circled on their calendars. Still, it represents an important date for NBA teams for a variety of transaction-related reasons.

[RELATED: Key In-Season NBA Dates, Deadlines For 2019/20]

Here’s a breakdown of what to watch for today:

Players becoming trade-eligible:

Most players who signed as free agents during the 2019 offseason had their trade restrictions lifted on December 15, but a select group of players remained ineligible to be traded until January 15. These players all meet a specific set of criteria: Not only did they re-sign with their previous team last offseason, but they got a raise of at least 20%, their salary is worth more than the minimum, and their team was over the cap, using Bird or Early Bird rights to sign them.

Here’s the full list of players who fit that bill and become trade-eligible today:

While stars like Porzingis and Thompson aren’t going anywhere, a few players on this list – such as Nene, Zubac, and Theis – could be the subject of some trade rumors in the coming weeks.

Deadline to sign players to two-way contracts:

Wednesday represents the last day that a team can sign a player to a two-way contract for the 2019/20 season. Two-way players can still be waived or promoted to 15-man rosters after January 15, but as of Thursday, they can’t be replaced. So we’ll likely see a small handful of moves completed today as clubs get those two-way slots in order for the second half.

On Monday, I singled out a few two-way contract situations around the NBA as ones worth watching. Most of those clubs have acted since then, including the Cavaliers, Suns, and Heat, who have all reportedly reached agreements to fill their open two-way slots.

The full list of current two-way contracts can be found right here.

Deadline to apply for a disabled player exception:

January 15 is also the last day for teams to apply for a disabled player exception for the 2019/20 season. This exception provides a little extra cap flexibility for clubs that have lost a player to a season-ending injury.

The Pistons recently applied for a disabled player exception after Blake Griffin underwent knee surgery. The Cavaliers did the same following Dylan Windler‘s season-ending leg injury. And the Magic requested a pair of DPEs, with Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu both on the shelf.

It’s not clear if any other teams will follow suit before Wednesday’s deadline, since no other season-ending injuries have been recently reported. After today, teams won’t be able to apply for a disabled player exception for any player who suffers a season-ending ailment.

The deadline to use a disabled player exception is March 10. The Wizards, Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Lakers, and Nets all have DPEs available.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Will Giannis Repeat As NBA MVP?

January 14th, 2020 at 4:15pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning his first Most Valuable Player award in 2018/19, Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo has arguably been even better so far this season.

Despite playing just 30.9 minutes per game, his lowest mark since he was a rookie in 2013/14, Antetokounmpo is establishing new career highs in PPG (29.8) and RPG (12.8) to go along with 5.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 1.1 BPG.

Giannis has also managed to convert 55.0% of his field goal attempts even though he’s launching 5.1 threes per game, nearly double his previous career high. He’s hitting 32.5% of those outside attempts, which isn’t an above-average rate, but is an encouraging step forward for a player who had made 27.7% of his career three-point attempts entering the season.

Oh, and his Bucks posted a 35-6 record in the first half, putting them on pace for a 70-win season.

It all adds up to make Antetokounmpo the MVP frontrunner halfway through the 2019/20 campaign. NBA.com’s Sekou Smith has Giannis atop his MVP ladder, while Basketball-Reference’s model also views him as the favorite.

Still, we’ve still got 40+ games to play this season, and it’s not as if Antetokounmpo has left his competition in the dust.

James Harden is having another historic scoring season, with 37.7 PPG through 37 games. If the Rockets guard maintains that pace, it would be the fourth-highest scoring average in NBA history and the best single-season mark by anyone not named Wilt Chamberlain.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis each have strong MVP cases for the 33-7 Lakers. James’ impressive on/off-court splits, as well as his 25.5 PPG and league-leading 10.7 APG, might make him the better pick of the two.

Second-year Mavericks star Luka Doncic is also in the conversation, with a near-triple-double average through 35 games (29.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 9.0 APG) as his team exceeds preseason expectations and looks to secure a playoff spot.

While Antetokounmpo is putting up insane per-36 stats, it’s possible some voters will dock him for playing fewer minutes than other MVP candidates. He has appeared in 38 games to Harden’s 37 this season, but has logged 200 fewer minutes than the Rockets’ star. If that gap continues to widen by season’s end, with Giannis potentially getting some rest after Milwaukee secure the No. 1 seed, it could be a factor worth considering in the MVP race.

Still, for now, Giannis looks like the odds-on favorite to be named the NBA’s 2019/20 MVP. What do you think? Will he finish strong and win the award for a second consecutive year?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Community Shootaround: Grizzlies’ Outlook

January 14th, 2020 at 12:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Entering the 2019/20 season, no Western Conference team was projected to win fewer games than the Grizzlies. Oddsmakers set Memphis’ over/under at 27.5 wins and Hoops Rumors voters confidently took the under in our preseason poll.

Through the first quarter of the season, that projection looked about right. The Grizzlies’ 6-16 record put them on a 31-win pace, and while Rookie of the Year frontrunner Ja Morant made Memphis an entertaining League Pass team, it seemed as if it would just be a matter of time before the club fell out of playoff contention and entered the race for the No. 1 pick.

Instead, the Grizzlies have been one of the NBA’s hottest teams in recent weeks, winning 12 of their last 18 games to improve their overall record to 18-22. Memphis is currently riding a five-game winning streak that includes victories over the Clippers and Spurs, and has moved into the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference.

Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been the catalysts for the Grizzlies’ hot streak. Morant is averaging 16.9 PPG and 7.4 APG with a .517/.368/.846 shooting line during that 18-game stretch, while Jackson has recorded 20.2 PPG and 1.8 BPG on .522/.449/.696 shooting during the same period. Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke are also among the club’s most productive contributors, though the team isn’t just relying on young players.

Eighth-year big man Jonas Valanciunas is averaging a double-double (16.1 PPG, 10.1 RPG) with a .630 FG% during Memphis’ 12-6 run, while veteran forward Jae Crowder is playing more minutes this season than anyone else on the roster, providing a reliable three-and-D presence on the wing.

It seems improbable that the Grizzlies will be able to actually hold onto the No. 8 seed in the West, but it’s not as if the competition for that spot has been intense. The Spurs (17-21) and Trail Blazers (17-24) were expected to be playoff teams, but have underachieved. The Suns (16-23), Timberwolves (15-24), Kings (15-25), and Pelicans (15-26) have been up and down too.

Additionally, despite being in rebuilding mode, the Grizzlies have no reason not to push for a playoff spot, since they owe their top-six protected first-round pick to the Celtics in 2020. That pick would become unprotected in 2021 if Memphis keeps it this year, so the team may just prefer to send it to Boston this season and get that commitment out of the way. It would certainly be easier to swallow if it lands at No. 15 instead of No. 7.

The Grizzlies won’t give up any future draft picks or young prospects in exchange for a win-now piece, but there are potentially ways the team could fortify its current roster for a postseason push. We’ve been assuming that Memphis will eventually move Andre Iguodala for a package made up of an unwanted contract or two and perhaps a second-round pick — but maybe there’s a way to turn Iguodala into a player that could actually contribute to this year’s squad.

Obviously, if the Grizzlies can acquire a valuable draft asset for Iguodala, they should favor that return over a veteran on a short-term contract. But a veteran rotation player might make more sense than a late second-rounder. After all, young players like Morant and Jackson would probably benefit from getting some playoff experience – however brief – this early in their NBA careers.

What do you think? Are you a believer in the Grizzlies? Can they remain in the playoff hunt and maybe even grab the No. 8 seed? Will they fall off down the stretch like the Kings did a year ago? Or will their playoff dreams die even earlier than that? As they approach the trade deadline, should they be thinking at all about acquiring immediate help, or should they be focused exclusively on the long term?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the upstart Grizzlies!

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Checking In On 2020’s Protected First-Round Picks

January 14th, 2020 at 8:44am CST by Luke Adams

We’re nearly at the halfway mark of the 2019/20 NBA regular season, with several teams having already played their 41st game. As such, it’s a good time to check in on the traded 2020 first-round picks that have protections on them to get a sense of whether or not those protections will be applied this year.

Of this year’s 30 first-round selections, 10 have been traded, and all 10 have some form of protection on them. In other words, the ’19/20 standings will dictate whether or not those first-rounders actually change hands in 2020.

Here’s our latest look at which of those picks are safe bets to move, which ones will likely be retained, and which ones are still up in the air:

Likely to change hands:

  • Bucks acquiring Pacers‘ pick (top-14 protected)
  • Celtics acquiring Bucks‘ pick (top-7 protected)
  • Nets acquiring Sixers‘ pick (top-14 protected)
  • Thunder acquiring Nuggets‘ pick (top-10 protected)

It’s safe to say at this point that the Pacers (25-15), Bucks (35-6), Sixers (25-16), and Nuggets (27-12) aren’t missing the playoffs this season, which means their traded first-round picks, which range from lottery-protected to top-7 protected, will be on the move.

Currently, the Milwaukee and Denver picks project to fall near the end of the first round, while the Philadelphia and Indiana selections could end up in the late-teens or early-20s, as our Reverse Standings show.

Unlikely to change hands:

  • Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘ pick (1-7, 15-30 protected)
  • Nets acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected)

The Warriors (9-32) keeping their first-round pick is the safest bet on the board. Not only will that first-rounder land within the top 20, but it appears likely to be a top-five selection. Brooklyn will see the value of that asset decline significantly when it’s officially protected this year, receiving a 2025 second-round pick in place of that first-rounder.

Meanwhile, the Jazz (27-12) would have to finish out of the playoffs for the Grizzlies to get their first-rounder this year. That was always unlikely to happen, even before Utah’s recent hot streak. The protections on that pick will roll over to 2021 and will be identical next year (1-7 and 15-30).

Still up in the air:

  • Celtics acquiring Grizzlies‘ pick (top-6 protected)
  • Hawks acquiring Nets‘ pick (top-14 protected)
  • Pelicans acquiring Cavaliers‘ pick (top-10 protected)
  • Sixers acquiring Thunder‘s pick (top-20 protected)

Usually by this point in the season, we have a reasonably clear idea of which draft picks will be protected, but these four first-rounders are still very much up in the air.

The Thunder (23-17) weren’t considered a probable playoff team entering the season, but they’re comfortably holding the seventh seed in the West for now and project to have the No. 18 pick. Another winning streak or two could move that pick outside the top 20, which would be good news for the Sixers. If the pick is protected this year and Oklahoma City keeps it, Philadelphia would instead receive second-rounders in 2022 and 2023.

Like OKC, the Grizzlies (18-22) are defying modest expectations and hold one of the final playoff spots in the West. If they keep playing like this, there’s no chance their pick will end up in the top six, so it would be sent to the Celtics. But if Memphis doesn’t make the playoffs, there’s always a chance the lottery could push that selection into the top four, where the Grizzlies would keep it. In that scenario, Memphis would owe Boston its unprotected 2021 first-round pick.

The Nets (18-20) are the eighth seed in the East for the time being, and would send their lottery-protected to Atlanta as long as they hang onto a playoff spot. The Hawks would be happy for the Nets to stay where they are, resulting in the No. 16 overall pick. If Brooklyn slips out of the playoff picture and hangs onto its protected first-rounder, Atlanta would almost certainly receive a less valuable pick in 2021 when Kevin Durant returns and makes the Nets a more dangerous team.

Finally, it may seem safe to assume that the Cavaliers (12-28) will keep their top-10 protected pick, but we’re not writing that in pen yet. Even though the Cavs currently have the NBA’s fourth-worst record, only 3.5 games separate them from the 15-24 Timberwolves, who are the league’s 11th-worst team. I expect Cleveland to continue losing as the team shops its veterans, but there are enough bad teams in the NBA that hanging onto their pick can’t quite be considered a lock.

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