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Checking In On NBA’s Projected Taxpayers For 2019/20

January 21st, 2020 at 12:12pm CST by Luke Adams

Following their cost-cutting trade with the Kings, the Trail Blazers no longer project to have the NBA’s highest tax bill for the 2019/20 season. That honor instead belongs to the Warriors, one of a small handful of teams that will be subject to the league’s more punitive repeater penalties if they’re in the tax at season’s end.

These numbers are fluid and will almost certainly change in the coming months, but here are the current projected luxury tax bills for teams this season, via ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link):

  • Golden State Warriors: $14.99MM
  • Portland Trail Blazers: $9.65MM
  • Miami Heat: $6.65MM
  • Oklahoma City Thunder: $2.3MM
  • Houston Rockets: $372K

As Marks point out, the projected payouts for non-taxpaying teams are lower than usual — based on the current figures, non-taxpayers would receive approximately $680K apiece (50% of the total tax payments, split among 25 teams). By contrast, non-taxpayers received about $3.1MM each in 2018/19.

This season looks like it could end up looking more like the 2016/17 campaign, which featured the lowest tax payouts of the decade due to the infamous ’16 cap spike. That cap spike left the Cavaliers and Clippers as the NBA’s only clubs in the tax for that year, resulting in payouts of about $507K apiece for the 28 non-taxpayers.

[RELATED: Recent History of NBA Taxpaying Teams]

The end-of-season payouts for non-taxpayers this season will actually probably end up being even lower than $680K. None of the five projected taxpayers listed above are more than about $6.2MM above the luxury tax threshold, so many of them have a path to potentially getting out of tax territory altogether.

The Thunder and Rockets, in particular, look like candidates to sneak below the tax threshold by moving low-cost trade chips like Justin Patton and Nene. The Blazers could theoretically get there too with a bigger deal involving a player like Hassan Whiteside. It’ll be more of a challenge for the hard-capped Warriors and Heat, but not impossible.

For every team that gets out of the tax, the amount of the league-wide tax payments at season’s end will decrease and the number of non-taxpaying clubs will increase, resulting in a smaller pot to be split among a greater number of franchises. In other words, no non-taxpaying NBA team should be counting on a major windfall from taxpayers at the end of the ’19/20 campaign.

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2019/20 NBA Reverse Standings Update

January 21st, 2020 at 9:58am CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2019/20 NBA season, Hoops Rumors is maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on what the 2020 draft order will look like. Our 2019/20 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, is updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.

Our Reverse Standings are essentially a reflection of what 2020’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. We’ve noted each club’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, based on the league’s current lottery format.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Draft Lottery]

In instances where two non-playoff teams or two playoff teams have identical records, the order in our standings isn’t necessarily definitive — for draft purposes, the NBA breaks ties via random drawings, so those drawings would happen at the end of the year. Of course, the 14 non-playoff teams all draft before the 16 playoff teams, even if some non-playoff teams have better records than playoff teams. Our reverse standings account for that.

Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For example, the note next to Cleveland’s pick says that the Cavaliers will send their pick to the Pelicans if it’s not in the top 10. As of today, Cleveland is tied for the NBA’s third-worst record, meaning that pick wouldn’t change hands, even if several teams were to leapfrog the Cavs in the lottery.

When we last checked in on the reverse standings, the Hawks were in the driver’s seat for the NBA’s worst record, but they’ve been at least a little frisky since then, winning four of their last 11 games. During that same stretch, the Warriors have won just a single game and now sit “atop” our reverse standings.

Golden State’s 10-35 record is a half-game worse than Atlanta’s 10-34 mark, with the Knicks (12-32) and Cavaliers (12-32) also within striking distance of the top spot in the lottery.

Although the league’s bottom three teams will all have an equal chance at the No. 1 overall pick (14.0%) and a top-four selection (52.1%), finishing atop the reverse standings would still benefit teams like the Warriors or Hawks — the NBA’s worst team can’t fall further than the No. 5 pick, while the third-worst team could end up selecting as low as No. 7.

Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2020. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!

Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.

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Community Shootaround: Derrick Rose

January 20th, 2020 at 10:45pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Derrick Rose is suddenly a hot commodity again. A Yahoo Sports report on Monday indicated that the Lakers, Sixers and several other playoff contenders were interested in dealing for Rose, who is enjoying a career rebirth after nearly retiring a couple of years ago due to knee pain.

Rose had a bounce-back season in Minnesota last year, averaging 18 points in 51 games before his season was cut short by another injury. But he didn’t attract a lot of attention in the free agent market before signing a two-year, $15MM contract with the Pistons.

While the Pistons have floundered due to injuries, particularly to star forward Blake Griffin, Rose has been an offensive juggernaut. He’s averaging 18.3 PPG in 25.8 MPG and shooting a career-high 50.2%. At an age where most guards have lost a step, Rose has seemingly found the fountain of youth. He’s consistent breaking down defenses with quickness and guile and finishing at the rim.

He’d certainly help nearly any of the contenders, either as a starting guard or sixth man, a role he filled with the Pistons until he was inserted into the lineup three games ago. The Lakers have plenty of point guards on the roster but Rose would be an upgrade over any of them. He’d give the Sixers a change of pace option to take pressure off Ben Simmons and dramatically improve their bench.

The Clippers reportedly have only mild interest in Rose, perhaps because they gave up so many assets to secure Paul George‘s services. The Nuggets haven’t publicly been named as a suitor but he could be the piece that puts them on par with the Los Angeles teams. And he’d make marginal contenders like the Heat and Mavericks a lot more dangerous in the postseason.

The Pistons could just hold onto Rose, who has stated he’s happy where he is, and hope for better results next season if Griffin comes back healthy. But it’s more likely they’ll try to cash in and get a future asset or two while Rose is in a groove.

That leads us to our question of the day: If Derrick Rose is traded, where do you think he’ll wind up?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

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Poll: Eastern Conference’s No. 2 Seed

January 20th, 2020 at 2:51pm CST by Luke Adams

Barring a major second-half swoon, the Bucks won’t give up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference this season. At 38-6, Milwaukee is on pace to win over 70 games and currently has an eight-game cushion over the next-best team in the conference.

While the race for the top seed in the East may already be over, a fascinating race is developing for the No. 2 spot. With six potential contenders in the conference, the importance of nabbing that second seed shouldn’t be understated. Not only would it set up a first-round matchup against a less dangerous opponents like the Magic or Nets, it would also mean avoiding the Bucks until the Eastern Conference Finals and holding home court advantage for two rounds.

As we enter the second half of the season, the Heat currently hold the second seed, but the margin is extremely tight. Here’s what the standings look like for the five teams vying for the No. 2 seed, entering today’s action:

  1. Miami Heat (29-13)
  2. Toronto Raptors (28-14)
  3. Boston Celtics (27-14)
  4. Indiana Pacers (28-15)
  5. Philadelphia 76ers (28-16)

All five teams are separated by just two games, so one hot or cold streak could have a significant impact on seeding. Just ask the Celtics, who could fall out of the top four tonight for the first time since October if their current losing streak extends to four games.

With a real incentive tied to claiming the No. 2 seed, the second-half race among these five teams should be fascinating. The Raptors finally have a healthy roster, and the Pacers will be getting star guard Victor Oladipo back next week. The Sixers have been shakier than expected all year long, but showed their upside on Christmas Day when they dismantled the Bucks. The Celtics and the Heat are in position to potentially upgrade their rosters at the trade deadline if they so choose.

Of course, we should also consider each team’s second-half schedule. According to Tankathon.com, the Heat, Sixers, and Raptors have three of the NBA’s easiest remaining slates, while the Pacers’ schedule ranks in the middle of the pack and the Celtics’ is the eighth-hardest.

What do you think? Which of these five teams do you like best to finish the season strong and claim the No. 2 seed in the East?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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23 Trade Exceptions To Expire Within Next Month

January 20th, 2020 at 8:53am CST by Luke Adams

As NBA teams consider their trade options before the February 6 deadline, it’s worth keeping in mind that a number of clubs hold traded player exceptions. These traded player exceptions allow over-the-cap clubs to acquire a player – or multiple players – whose salary fits within the TPE without having to send out any salary in return.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Traded Player Exception]

Traded player exceptions can’t be combined with another salary or exception and often aren’t worth much, so most of them ultimately go unused. Still, they can come in handy every now and then, particularly for under-the-tax clubs that don’t mind adding a little more money to their books.

Last season, a total of 23 trades were completed between January 22 and February 7, resulting in 23 trade exceptions that haven’t yet been used or renounced and will expire if they’re not used by this year’s trade deadline.

Here are those traded player exceptions, listed in order of value, with the expiration date noted in parentheses for each TPE:

  • Dallas Mavericks: $11,825,694 (2/7)
  • Miami Heat: $6,270,000 (2/7)
  • Houston Rockets: $3,620,016 (2/7)
  • Houston Rockets: $3,206,160 (2/7)
  • Toronto Raptors: $2,536,898 (2/7)
  • Detroit Pistons: $2,500,000 (2/6)
  • Portland Trail Blazers: $1,740,000 (2/7)
  • Houston Rockets: $1,621,415 (2/7)
  • Toronto Raptors: $1,569,360 (2/6)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers: $1,544,951 (2/7)
  • Houston Rockets: $1,544,951 (2/7)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder: $1,544,951 (2/3)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers: $1,512,601 (2/7)
  • Houston Rockets: $1,512,601 (1/22)
  • Houston Rockets: $1,512,601 (2/7)
  • Memphis Grizzlies: $1,512,601 (2/7)
  • Toronto Raptors: $1,512,601 (2/7)
  • Dallas Mavericks: $1,233,152 (1/31)
  • Detroit Pistons: $1,140,682 (2/7)
  • Washington Wizards: $311,913 (2/6)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers: $266,728 (2/4)
  • Memphis Grizzlies: $184,467 (2/7)
  • Washington Wizards: $183,148 (2/7)

For the full list of traded player exceptions currently available, including a Warriors TPE worth $17MM that probably can’t be used until July, click here.

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Following Specific Players On Hoops Rumors

January 19th, 2020 at 9:18am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors makes it easy to keep up with your favorite NBA teams as they plot their next moves, and we also provide multiple ways to follow the latest updates on all of your favorite players, including the top free agents and trade candidates from around the league.

You can get news about players wherever you go with our Trade Rumors app, available for iOS and Android devices. The app is free and allows you to add a feed for any player and set up notifications that will alert you whenever we write about him. It’s the easiest way to keep tabs on specific players.

If you’re using the desktop or mobile version of our site, there are other ways to follow your favorite player(s). Every player we’ve written about has his own rumors page. You can find any player by using our search box, by clicking his tag at the bottom of a post in which he’s discussed, or by simply typing his name in your address bar after hoopsrumors.com, substituting dashes for spaces. For example, LeBron James‘ page is hoopsrumors.com/lebron-james. Those player pages can be added to RSS readers too.

In addition to players, there are a number of other subjects you can track by clicking on the tags that we use at the bottom of posts. For example, you can keep tabs on our 2020 NBA draft stories right here. Items about the NBA G League can be found on this page. You can simply scan our top stories here.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 1/12/20 – 1/18/20

January 18th, 2020 at 3:48pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2020: Pacific Division

January 17th, 2020 at 9:48pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Southwest Division:

Dwight Howard, Lakers, 34, C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.56MM deal in 2019
Skepticism was rampant when the Lakers brought Howard back. That included the team’s front office, who gave him a non-guaranteed veteran’s minimum deal. Instead of quickly wearing out his welcome, Howard has been wearing out second-unit centers. In the last three games, Howard has averaged 14 PPG and 15 RPG. Injuries limited Howard to nine games with Washington last season but the future Hall-of-Famer has proven he can accept a bench role and still have a major impact on a contending team. He’ll get significantly more than the veteran’s minimum this summer.

Nemanja Bjelica, Kings, 31, PF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $20.5MM deal in 2018
When Bjelica gets rolling, he can be an offensive force. Orlando learned that lesson on Monday when he erupted for 34 points. He’s also had 27- and 30-point games for the Kings this season. Bjelica started regularly for Sacramento last season but he’s turned it up a notch in his second season there, averaging career highs in points (12.2 PPG), rebounds (6.6 RPG) and assists (2.5 APG) while making 43.4% of his long-range attempts. The Kings can retain Bjelica’s services by guaranteeing his $7.15MM salary prior to free agency. He’s making that an easy decision.

Maurice Harkless, Clippers, 26, SF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $42MM deal in 2016
Being the fifth option on the court, especially on a team loaded with scorers like the Clippers, can be tough for many players to accept. Harkless embraces that role, which is why he’s a steady presence in the rotation. He’s averaging 5.5 PPG while playing 22.8 MPG due to his limited opportunities. Harkless’ defensive rating has jumped this season, why is why Doc Rivers keeps calling his number. Harkless is making $11MM this season prior to unrestricted free agency. He’ll have to take a pay cut this summer but he’ll find a second-unit job in the open market.

Dario Saric, Suns, 25, PF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $10.75MM deal in 2016
Saric’s NBA career has gone south after a promising second season in Philadelphia in which he averaged 14.7 PPG and 6.7 RPG while making 39.3% of his 3-pointers. Saric was included in the Jimmy Butler deal with Minnesota last season and was later sent to Phoenix in a draft-night trade. His playing time has fallen substantially this month, including a couple of games in which he barely left the bench. Phoenix can make him a restricted free agent by extending a $4.79MM qualifying offer. It’s likely the Suns will seek an upgrade at power foward and allow Saric to move on.

Alec Burks, Warriors, 28, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $2.32MM deal in 2019
Burks scored 25 points in an overtime loss to the Nuggets on Thursday after shooting 27.7% from the field and 29.2% from 3-point range in his previous five games. He’s averaging 15.9 PPG but that’s mainly a product of opportunity on a bad team. He’s taking a career-high 12.4 shots per game, including 4.5 from long range. On the flip side, Burks settled for a veteran’s minimum contract last season. He’s done enough to get a better offer as a second-unit scorer, though he’s not going to make $10MM-plus as he did the previous three seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Southwest Division

January 17th, 2020 at 2:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

If the Rockets and Mavericks make moves before the trade deadline, they’ll likely be looking to shore up their rosters in order to make a push to secure a top-four seed in the West. However, in today’s look at Southwest trade candidates, we’re focusing on the division’s other three teams, whose approaches to the deadline remain unclear. Let’s dive in…

DeMarre Carroll, F
San Antonio Spurs
$7MM cap hit; $6.7MM guaranteed salary in 2020/21; $7MM non-guaranteed salary in 2021/22

Nearly a month ago, Carroll acknowledged that he wasn’t playing as much this season as he expected to when he joined the Spurs last summer, and admitted that accepting his reduced role had been “difficult.” Since then, the veteran forward has appeared in four games, logging fewer than 15 total minutes.

There’s been no indication that Carroll has asked the Spurs to trade him, but given his lack of playing time and the team’s up-and-down play this season, it seems safe to assume he wouldn’t object to a change of scenery.

Carroll’s value has probably taken a hit due to his absence from San Antonio’s lineup and his small-sample struggles. The Spurs also aren’t historically very active on the trade market during the season — their last in-season trade was completed in 2014, and that Nando De Colo/Austin Daye swap wasn’t exactly a blockbuster.

With those factors working against a deal, Carroll will probably end up staying put through the deadline. But if San Antonio does make a move, a smaller-scale trade involving a player like Carroll seems more likely than a franchise-changing shake-up involving someone like DeMar DeRozan or LaMarcus Aldridge.

Jae Crowder, F
Memphis Grizzlies
$7.8MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Crowder looked like a more logical trade candidate back on December 7, when the Grizzlies were 6-16 and seemed safely lottery-bound. For teams who perhaps couldn’t afford Andre Iguodala‘s $17MM salary but were seeking a playoff-tested three-and-D wing, Crowder and his expiring contract made all the sense in the world as a potential target.

Since then though, Memphis has won 13 of 19 games, jumping all the way up to No. 8 in the Western Conference, and Crowder has had a major hand in that resurgence, as no Grizzlies player has played more minutes so far this season.

Crowder’s play has earned him “renewed attention” from possible suitors, according to John Hollinger of The Athletic. However, Hollinger doesn’t think the Grizzlies will receive an offer so strong that they’ll feel compelled to move him — especially since re-signing the forward at season’s end isn’t entirely out of the question. At age 29, Crowder isn’t necessarily too old to play alongside the franchise’s young core for a few more years.

Derrick Favors, F/C
New Orleans Pelicans
$17.7MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Like Crowder, Favors is a veteran on an expiring contract who would fit right in on a contender and has been monitored by teams this season. But a handful of factors – including a recent hot streak, a close race for the West’s No. 8 seed, and Zion Williamson‘s impending return – all point toward the Pelicans deciding not to become sellers this winter.

After all, the Pelicans’ 9-3 stretch – following a 7-23 start – has pulled them within 3.5 games of the Grizzlies for that eighth spot in the conference, and selling off veterans now would dampen fans’ rising enthusiasm for the team.

Assuming the Pelicans plan to push for a spot in the postseason, Favors is the team’s most reliable option at the five, as he showed with his 21-point, 11-rebound performance in Thursday’s win over Utah. That’s not to say a trade is out of the question, as Favors is probably more likely to be moved than Jrue Holiday or J.J. Redick. But I get the sense that David Griffin would like to see what this squad can do when it’s fully healthy and may wait until the offseason to make any serious changes.

Revisit the rest of our 2019/20 Trade Candidate series right here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Checking In On NBA’s Two-Way Contracts

January 16th, 2020 at 12:45pm CST by Luke Adams

January 15 was the last day that NBA teams were permitted to sign players to two-way contracts this season. As such, the next time we see a two-way deal finalized will be this summer when the 2020/21 league year begins.

With that in mind, it’s worth checking in on where things stand with the current two-way players around the NBA. Let’s dive in…

All 60 two-way slots have been filled

For much of the season, the Suns only carried one two-way player. A handful of other teams also opened up two-way contract slots in recent weeks. However, all those openings have now been filled, as all 30 NBA teams are carrying a pair of players on two-way contracts. The full list can be found right here.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that those 60 slots will stay filled all season long. A two-way player can still be waived, though there will be little incentive to do so after January 20, when all two-way salaries for the season become guaranteed. A player on a two-way contract can still be promoted to a 15-man roster too — he just can’t be replaced with a new two-way player.

There are still players on two-way contracts who are candidates for standard deals

Some teams, including the Warriors (Damion Lee), Heat (Chris Silva), and Nets (Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot) added standout two-way players to their 15-man rosters via a standard contract or 10-day deal on Wednesday. That allowed those clubs to sign a replacement two-way player in advance of the January 15 deadline. But not every team with a two-way player in its rotation took that approach.

The Sixers, for instance, opted not to convert Norvel Pelle‘s two-way contract to a standard deal on Wednesday, preferring to prioritize roster flexibility as the trade deadline approaches, as Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice.com tweets.

Pelle only has a handful of days left on his 45-day NBA limit and head coach Brett Brown suggested the team plans to play him until he hits that limit (Twitter link via ESPN’s Tim Bontemps). At that point, Pelle will have to remain in the G League until the regular season ends or he receives a promotion to the 15-man roster.

Brandon Goodwin (Hawks), Ky Bowman (Warriors), Garrison Mathews (Wizards), Oshae Brissett (Raptors), and Kelan Martin (Timberwolves) are some of the other candidates to be moved to standard contracts before the season ends.

The league’s newest two-way players will get to spend up to 42 days in the NBA — sort of

As noted above, two-way players are generally limited to spending 45 days with their NBA clubs after the G League season begins and before it ends. However, players who sign two-way deals during the season get a prorated portion of those 45 days, depending on when they sign.

Guys like Marquese Chriss (Warriors), Jeremiah Martin (Nets), Ray Spalding (Hornets), and Paul Watson (Raptors), who finalized their two-way agreements on Wednesday, did so with 92 days left in the 177-day NBA season. As a result, they’ll get to spend up to 24 days (92/177ths of 45 days, rounded up to the nearest whole number) with their NBA teams before the G League regular season ends on March 28.

Once the NBAGL regular season is over, those players will no longer face NBA restrictions and can subsequently spend the season’s last 18 days (from March 29 to April 15) in the NBA.

So, in total, players like Chriss and the rest will be able to spend 42 days in the NBA if they remain on their two-way contracts for the rest of the season. They’ll just be limited to 24 days until the G League season concludes.

Not all two-way players will be free agents at season’s end

Based on reports this week, Kenny Wooten (Knicks) and Matt Mooney (Cavaliers) signed two-way contracts that span two years and won’t expire until the summer of 2021.

Those two-year deals are very team-friendly, since they give players limited leverage in the event they outperform their two-way contracts. But Wooten and Mooney aren’t the only players whose two-way pacts will run through next season. Bol Bol (Nuggets), Marial Shayok (Sixers), Kyle Guy (Kings), Amir Coffey (Clippers), and Devontae Cacok (Lakers) are also on two-year contracts.

Of the NBA’s 60 current two-way players, then, up to 53 have the opportunity to reach unrestricted or restricted free agency by this summer. Those seven players listed above, however, may still occupy two-way slots in 2020/21 without getting the chance to test the market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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