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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

May 19th, 2024 at 12:42pm CST by Rory Maher

The 2023 offseason was one of the most dramatic in Trail Blazers history. Never able to find optimal complementary pieces around Damian Lillard during his 11 years with the franchise, Portland decided to keep the No. 3 overall pick and draft Scoot Henderson instead of, perhaps, finding immediate help using the selection on the trade market, as the seven-time All-NBA guard had hoped.

Lillard responded by requesting a trade, which is seemingly what general manager Joe Cronin was hoping for, even if he’d never admit that publicly. It’s not like it was a surprising outcome. Having the No. 3 overall pick in what was considered a strong draft is a rare opportunity. Not using it for veteran help was essentially a bet against Lillard’s future and an acknowledgement of the state of the roster at the time.

I’m not saying Cronin was wrong to feel that way. Nor was Lillard wrong for asking out. The two sides were just on drastically different timelines. Lillard is a small, offense-first guard who relies on athleticism to get separation and draw fouls. He turns 34 in July.

Portland already had Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, two young scoring guards, on the roster before they chose Henderson, another guard. The writing was on the wall.

2023/24 was an injury-riddled season for the Blazers, who finished just 21-61, tied for the second-worst mark in franchise history. Trade acquisition Robert Williams played only six games before undergoing season-ending knee surgery. Malcolm Brogdon, who was also acquired from Boston in the Jrue Holiday deal, played 39. Sharpe played 32. Simons, 46. Jerami Grant, 54. Deandre Ayton, 55. Henderson, 62.

The Blazers have made a habit of tanking in the second half of the past few seasons, so it’s fair to wonder how many of those injuries were really serious. But the end result was their top rotation players simply didn’t play many games together.

Portland endured four losing streaks of seven-plus games and ended the season on a five-game skid. The team’s -9.0 net rating was identical to that of the last-place Pistons.

Young point guards often struggle as rookies, and Henderson was no exception. Most advanced stats say he was among the worst — if not the worst — rotation regulars in the NBA last season. His .489 True Shooting percentage was particularly dreadful, ranking dead last among all qualifying players.

In addition to their own pick (No. 7 overall), the Blazers control a second lottery selection, No. 14 overall (via Golden State). In a draft that is viewed as being light on top-end talent, the Blazers could go in a number of different directions with those selections. Adding another young guard probably doesn’t make much sense, but anything else is probably on the table.

Despite the abysmal season, there is an interesting mix of young and veteran talent on Portland’s roster. Grant would intrigue a number of contending teams. Same for Brogdon. While he’s a major negative on defense, Simons is a very talented offensive player and could continue to get better. Ayton doesn’t have positive value on his current deal, but he’s still a good player. Henderson disappointed as a rookie, yet plenty of people thought he was the best prospect besides Victor Wembanyama in last year’s draft. Sharpe arguably has the most upside of anyone on the roster and the best chance of being a No. 1 scorer on a great team, and he’s only 20.

The Trail Blazers’ Offseason Plan

As things currently stand, the Trail Blazers project to be over the luxury tax line, which is tentatively set at $171.3MM for ’24/25. They are also facing a minor roster crunch, with 11 players on guaranteed salaries, two lottery picks with guaranteed salary slots, two second-round picks (Nos. 34 and 40) with non-guaranteed slots, the non-guaranteed salaries of Jabari Walker and Toumani Camara, and a team option on Dalano Banton.

Camara is essentially a lock to have his salary guaranteed after a promising rookie campaign, and Walker should feel pretty good about his position too. While Banton had some big games at the end of the season, he also had plenty of clunkers, with an unsustainably high usage rate and very poor overall efficiency. One report said the Blazers are expected to pick up their option on the former second-round pick — I’m not convinced that will happen.

Paying the luxury tax after going 21-61 is not a realistic outcome. That means one of the players making $11MM+ in ’24/25 will likely be traded.

Brogdon is probably the most logical candidate, as he’s on an expiring $22.5MM contract and is also the oldest player on the roster at 31. Moving off that deal would give the Blazers plenty of breathing room below the tax line. It would also remove any concerns about potential extension talks with the ’22/23 Sixth Man of the Year.

However, a report in February stated Portland wants to make a postseason push next season, which is why Grant and Brogdon were not moved before the trade deadline. If that remains the case, maybe Robert Williams ($25.7MM over the next two seasons) or Matisse Thybulle ($22.6MM over the next two seasons, including a player option for ’25/26) will be moved instead.

A healthy Williams would have more trade value than Thybulle, as he’s a better offensive player. But Williams has a long history of knee injuries, having been limited to just 215 regular season games over the course of his six NBA seasons (he has also played 56 playoff contests). The fact that he only played six games last season means his value is likely neutral at best.

Thybulle is what he is at this point — a terrific defender who is a minus on offense. I don’t think the Blazers would get a ton in return for him – possibly a second-rounder or two – but I do think he could net positive assets.

Beginning this summer, teams can use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, bi-annual exception and room exception to acquire players in trades. Both Williams ($12.4MM) and Thybulle ($11MM) would fit cleanly into the non-taxpayer MLE, which is projected to be worth $12.86MM. Considering this year’s free agent class is pretty underwhelming, the possibility of landing Williams or Thybulle could be appealing to rival teams looking for defensive help.

I seem to be a little higher than consensus on Ayton. He is undoubtedly a frustrating player to watch, because it’s plainly obvious that he has the talent to be more productive than he has been to this point in his career. I don’t think he was worth the max offer sheet Indiana gave him a couple years ago (Phoenix quickly matched it). But when he’s fully engaged, he’s a plus starter who contributes on both ends of the court. In 2021, the Suns were two wins away from their first championship with Ayton as their starting center — that wasn’t a coincidence.

That said, to get the best out of the former No. 1 overall pick, you have to involve him in the offense. That hardly happened at all at the beginning of the season, with Portland’s unstructured offense often leading to ball dominance from its perimeter players. Ignoring your highest-paid player isn’t a great recipe for success.

Ayton has shown throughout his career that his game scales well with additional touches, and that was true after the All-Star break, when he averaged 22.7 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting .583% from the field (his free throw rate remained alarmingly low). He was also more locked in defensively during that stretch. If the Blazers really want to push for a play-in spot next year, they need Ayton to be a centerpiece.

I don’t think that will happen. While there’s undeniable talent on the roster, too many of the skill sets are redundant. Almost all of their best players look to score first and only Brogdon is a reliable decision-maker. The Blazers ranked last in the league in assists, assist-to-turnover ratio, 3PT% and 2PT% — it’s impossible to have a functional offense when all of those factors coincide.

None of the young guards are great defenders, and the team was also last in the league in defensive rebounding. You can argue some of the team’s issues stemmed from injuries, and that’s fair to a point. But big picture, I think the whole of the roster is less than the sum of its parts.

The Western Conference is extremely competitive. Teams like San Antonio and Memphis, which struggled mightily in ’23/24, should be better next season. That means Portland will have to have good health and considerable progress from Sharpe and Henderson to have any chance at approaching .500 next season. And .500 was five games back of the West’s final play-in spot in ’23/24.

If the Blazers struggle to open ’24/25 and that continues for a few months, Grant and Brogdon will undoubtedly pop up in trade rumors again, regardless of whether they actually get moved.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Jabari Walker ($2,019,699)
    • Walker’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 20.
  • Toumani Camara ($1,891,857)
    • Camara’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 20.
  • Total: $3,911,556

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • Dalano Banton ($2,196,970): Non-Bird rights
    • Banton’s salary would be partially guaranteed for $217,533 if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $2,196,970

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 7 overall pick ($6,856,440)
  • No. 14 overall pick ($4,467,960)
  • No. 34 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • No. 40 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $11,324,400

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Deandre Ayton (veteran)
  • Malcolm Brogdon (veteran)
  • Anfernee Simons (veteran)
  • Jabari Walker (veteran)
  • Robert Williams (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Trail Blazers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Trail Blazers project to be over the cap and over the tax line, but below the first apron. In all likelihood, they’ll shed some salary to get out of the tax. If they were to go above the first apron, they’d lose the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and bi-annual exception and would have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,183,000).

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $8,778,377
    • Expires on September 27.
  • Trade exception: $862,382
    • Expires on October 1.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Toronto Raptors

May 18th, 2024 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

The Raptors held their own without Kawhi Leonard following their championship season, winning 53 games in 2019/20 after the star forward departed for Los Angeles. And they remained solidly in the Eastern Conference playoff picture after losing Kyle Lowry two years later to the Heat, winning 48 games in ’21/22.

Eventually though, bleeding talent – including former Coach of the Year Nick Nurse last offseason – caught up with the Raptors, who decided during the 2023/24 season to take a step back by trading away impact forwards Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby for packages heavy on young talent and future draft picks.

Having moved on from nearly every player who was part of that 2019 championship team (Chris Boucher is still hanging around, for now), the Raptors bottomed out, losing 19 of their final 21 games to close out the 2023/24 season and finishing with a 25-57 record, their worst mark since 2011.

Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to salvage their 2024 first-round pick, which they traded to San Antonio at the 2023 deadline in a package for Jakob Poeltl. The pick, which was top-six protected, had about a 46% chance to stick with the Raptors, but it ended up slipping to No. 8 on draft lottery day, so it’ll be controlled by the Spurs.

Not having the opportunity to add a potential cornerstone using that lottery pick is discouraging, but president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri has shown in the past that he’s capable of quickly turning around a team’s fortunes, and the Raptors’ roster is hardly devoid of talent. Former Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes is a future star; Immanuel Quickley looks like the club’s point guard of the future; Canadian forward RJ Barrett played some of the best basketball of his career after coming over in the Anunoby trade; 2023 first-rounder Gradey Dick looked much better in the second half of the season than he did in the first; and the duo of Poeltl and Kelly Olynyk makes for a perfectly serviceable NBA center rotation.

The Raptors’ Offseason Plan

The good news about the Raptors giving up their 2024 first-round pick is that all of their first-rounders going forward will be unencumbered — if they had kept this year’s pick, they still would’ve owed a lightly protected 2025 first-rounder to the Spurs.

That means that if Toronto wants to lean further into its rebuild and aim for a top pick in the 2025 draft, that’s an option. But given the level of veteran talent already on the roster, it may not be the most viable option unless the Raptors follow up their Anunoby and Siakam trades by continuing to sell off vets for long-term assets.

That approach probably doesn’t make sense. Barnes isn’t going anywhere; Quickly and Barrett probably aren’t either. And it’s not as if the Raptors would get a significant haul back if they put solid but unspectacular players like Poeltl, Olynyk, Bruce Brown, and Boucher on the trade block. So it seems safe to assume that Toronto will use its cap room and its draft picks to attempt to move the retooling process incrementally forward, without skipping steps forward or taking another step backward.

That doesn’t mean no veterans will be dealt though. Boucher, who received inconsistent playing time under first-year head coach Darko Rajakovic last season, is an obvious trade candidate entering a contract year. The Raptors should be able to get a second-round pick or two for him if they take back a less favorable expiring deal (perhaps someone like P.J. Tucker). It’s hard to envision them getting a first-round pick back for Boucher even if they’re willing to take on an onerous multiyear contract, but they could potentially land a more productive player in that scenario.

Brown is another trade candidate worth watching. His $23MM team option for 2024/25 is an overpay, so Toronto will have to decide whether or not it makes sense to pick it up at all. Brown is a useful role player who would have significant value if he was earning about half that price, and the Raptors won’t want to lose him for nothing, but they’ll have to scout the market and make sure they extract positive value for him in a trade before they decide to exercise his option.

For what it’s worth, declining the option doesn’t necessarily mean Toronto won’t get anything back for Brown. Non-Bird rights aren’t worth much for a player coming off a minimum or near-minimum salary, but due to his oversized 2023/24 cap hit, Brown’s Non-Bird rights could accommodate a starting salary worth up to $26.4MM. The versatile wing had plenty of suitors in the range of the full mid-level (approximately $12-13MM) last season — it’s possible the Raptors could use their Non-Bird rights to give him a multiyear deal in that neighborhood and sign-and-trade him to an over-the-cap team intent on using its MLE on someone else.

Poeltl is one more trade candidate to keep an eye on, though I suspect he’s more likely to be dealt at the 2025 deadline or the ’25 offseason unless a really favorable offer emerges this summer.

Quickley and Gary Trent Jr. are the Raptors’ two key free agents. Quickley is restricted, which makes his free agency a little more straightforward, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll come at a team-friendly rate. While offer sheets have become increasingly rare, all it takes is one rival suitor to put pressure on Toronto and jack up Quickley’s price.

It’s safe to assume Quickley’s agents will point to deals signed within the past two years by young guards like Tyler Herro (four years, $120MM), Jordan Poole (four years, $123MM), and Devin Vassell (five years, $135MM) as references for Quickley, who finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting a year ago. The Raptors will argue that Quickley’s résumé isn’t as decorated as that of Herro (2022’s Sixth Man of the Year) or Poole (a key contributor on the Warriors’ 2022 championship team) when they signed their respective extensions, but it’d still be surprising if the young guard gets less than $25MM per year.

Trent is a trickier case. On paper, he looks like an obvious keeper as a 25-year-old who makes three-pointers (38.6% for his career) and has defensive upside. But Trent’s on-court impact has been inconsistent, and depending on his asking price, it’s unclear if it makes sense for the retooling Raptors to invest in him long-term.

As is the case with Brown, Trent is a valuable enough asset that Toronto won’t want to let him go without getting any form of compensation, so perhaps he re-signs with the Raptors at a market-value rate and becomes a potential trade chip sooner rather than later, following in the footsteps of guys like Kyle Kuzma and D’Angelo Russell last year.

While the Raptors don’t control their own lottery pick, they do have a couple selections in the top 31 of this year’s draft, by way of the Pacers (No. 19) and Pistons (No. 31). This year’s draft class may not be elite at the top, but it has solid enough depth, and Toronto will get a couple chances to try to strike gold on a low-cost prospect.

Ujiri and the Raptors often deviate from consensus – most memorably in 2021 by drafting Barnes over Jalen Suggs – so it will be interesting to see how they use those picks. Given how far away they are from contention, they can afford to roll the dice on a younger player rather than going after one who can contribute right away. French forward Tidjane Salaun, Kansas wing Johnny Furphy, Miami swingman Kyshawn George, Pitt guard Carlton Carrington, and G League Ignite forward Tyler Smith are among the players in that range who fit the bill.

Finally, while it may be the most important move the Raptors make this summer, signing Barnes to a rookie scale extension should be fairly straightforward. The step toward stardom that the 22-year-old took in his third season warrants a maximum-salary investment, and no player has ever turned down a max rookie scale extension, so that negotiation shouldn’t be a particularly long one.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Javon Freeman-Liberty ($1,791,857)
    • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above.
  • D.J. Carton (two-way)
  • Mouhamadou Gueye (two-way)
  • Total: $1,791,857

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 19 overall pick ($3,475,200 cap hold)
  • No. 31 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $3,475,200

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Scottie Barnes (rookie scale)
  • Chris Boucher (veteran)
  • Gary Trent Jr. (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

  • Will Barton ($2,093,637 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $2,093,637

Note: Barton’s cap hold is on the Raptors’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Raptors project to operate under the cap, though they’ll have the option of remaining over the cap if they retain Brown and Trent. If they were to operate over the cap, they’d lose the room exception and would have access to the mid-level exception ($12,859,000) and three trade exceptions (worth $10,171,292, $1,607,916, and $1,379,527).

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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Poll: Who Will Win Knicks/Pacers Game 7?

May 18th, 2024 at 1:27pm CST by Luke Adams

It will be an eventful Sunday in the National Basketball Association. Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals between the Nuggets and Timberwolves, which we discussed on Friday, will be preceded by a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Knicks and Pacers. The winner will advance to face the Celtics in the Eastern finals.

Through the first six games of the Knicks/Pacers series, the home team has dominated. New York has a 3-0 record and a +43 margin at Madison Square Garden, but Indiana has been even better at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, posting a 3-0 record with a +50 margin.

The good news for the Knicks is that Game 7 will take place in New York. The bad news? At this point in the series, the injury-plagued squad is just looking to survive a battle of attrition. With Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic already unavailable to open the second round, the Knicks have seen Mitchell Robinson go down with a season-ending ankle injury and OG Anunoby suffer a hamstring strain that’s expected to sideline him for a fifth straight contest on Sunday.

Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart have managed to play in every game of the postseason, but both players – who have had a major hand in the Knicks’ success to this point – are banged up, with Hart’s status for Game 7 still up in the air due to an abdominal injury. Even if he’s able to play, it’s unclear how close he’ll be to 100%.

The Knicks are still listed as two-point favorites, according to BetOnline.ag, but given the overall talent level of the roster and their success at home this series, that number should be higher — it would be, if they were a little healthier.

New York’s injury woes have opened the door for the upstart Pacers, who entered the season as a projected sub-.500 team, to make the Eastern Conference Finals. But to pull out the series, they’ll need to put forth a better defensive effort than they have in the first three games in New York.

The Knicks, who had a 117.3 offensive rating during the regular season, have posted just a 107.6 mark on the road in the series vs. Indiana but have a staggering 131.0 offensive rating in their second-round home games.

Indiana hasn’t actually been bad at all offensively at Madison Square Garden. While star forward Pascal Siakam (18.3 points per game) hasn’t matched his regular season scoring average and star guard Tyrese Haliburton has games of six and 13 points sandwiching a 34-point outburst, the club as a whole has converted on 49.4% of its field goal attempts and 42.5% of its three-pointers on the road. But the Pacers’ defense has been porous in those losses and they haven’t been physical enough on the boards, where the Knicks have grabbed nearly 60% of the available rebounds across their three home games.

With Game 7 just over 24 hours away, we want to know what you think. Can the Knicks’ remaining healthy players come through on Sunday and win the series, or will the deeper, healthier Pacers become the first team to win a road game in the series?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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Poll: Who Will Win Nuggets/Timberwolves Game 7?

May 17th, 2024 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

When we discussed the Western Conference semifinals between the Nuggets and Timberwolves back on May 1, we noted that it had the potential to be one of the very best series of the NBA’s 2024 playoffs. Sixteen days later, it seems safe to say that’s exactly what we got.

The Timberwolves surprised everyone by beating the defending champions in back-to-back games on their home court in Denver to open the series, taking a 2-0 lead back to Minnesota. With some media members already writing the obituary for the Nuggets’ season, Nikola Jokic‘s squad responded by reeling off three consecutive wins to reclaim the upper hand. Facing elimination on Thursday, Minnesota submitted arguably the most dominant performance by any NBA team this postseason, defeating the Nuggets by 45 points to force a Game 7.

Jokic (28.2 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 8.0 APG) has played like the Most Valuable Player he is in the series, and rising Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards (29.7 PPG on .551/.415/.838 shooting) has performed like a future MVP. But several of their co-stars have been inconsistent.

Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, who was already dealing with a calf issue before injuring his elbow in Game 6, has averaged just 15.7 PPG on 38.2% shooting through six games, and is coming off a forgettable 4-of-18 night. Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. has scored single-digit points in four of six games. Wolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns found ways to contribute as a rebounder, passer, and defender in Game 6, but he scored a series-low 10 points and has now averaged 15.0 PPG on 42.6% shooting in the past four contests.

If Jokic and Edwards are both operating at the peak of their powers in Game 7, the result may ultimately come down to whether Murray or Towns gets going, or which role players come up big at the right time. In Game 5, that was Aaron Gordon (18 points, 10 rebounds, five assists) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (16 points, 4-of-5 on three-pointers). In Game 6, it was Jaden McDaniels (21 points on 8-of-10 shooting) and Mike Conley (13 points, five assists, no turnovers).

Even though both teams have 1-2 home records in the series, home court advantage could also be a deciding factor. The Nuggets were 33-8 during the regular season playing in the elevation of Denver and are currently listed as 4.5-point favorites for Sunday’s game, per BetOnline.ag.

Whatever the outcome, it would be great to see Game 7 go down to the wire. As entertaining and as back-and-forth as the series has been so far, none of the first six games featured a possession in which the trailing team could tie the score or take the lead in the final five minutes, notes Zach Kram of The Ringer. Maybe that will happen for the first time on Sunday.

Which team will win Game 7 and advance to the Western Conference Finals? Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thinking!

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Community Shootaround: Cavaliers’ Offseason

May 17th, 2024 at 2:02pm CST by Luke Adams

This year’s Cavaliers became the first Cavs team in over three decades to make the second round of the playoffs without LeBron James on its roster. But as successful as the season was in Cleveland, there’s a sense that major changes could be around the corner.

The Cavs will have to make a decision on head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, whose future with the club is said to be in “serious jeopardy.”

They’ll have to figure out whether or not Donovan Mitchell will sign a long-term extension as he enters a contract year.

If Mitchell is unwilling to extend, he could very well end up in the trade block, whereas if he does re-up with the Cavs, it may be Darius Garland who becomes the offseason trade candidate.

Cleveland will also have to decide on whether Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley can coexist in the frontcourt going forward as Mobley becomes eligible for a rookie scale extension.

There has been speculation for months – or even years – that Mitchell won’t want to commit to a long-term future in Cleveland and will ultimately have to be traded, but that’s far from a sure thing. In fact, one report following the Cavs’ elimination from the postseason this week suggested there’s a “growing sentiment” Mitchell will sign an extension.

Still, in the latest episode ESPN’s Hoop Collective podcast (YouTube link), Brian Windhorst advised listeners not to assume Mitchell has finalized a decision one way or the other yet.

“I hope to be very careful to not make too much into what the secondary chatter is about what Donovan’s going to do,” Windhorst said. “Because I have heard stuff – from what I would consider reliable sources – all over the board, which leads me to believe that the accurate answer or real answer may not be out there, and that Donovan is doing a great job of keeping everybody in a happy place.

“I will say this, the Cavs organization feels very optimistic he’s going to sign, and maybe that’s the way it’s going to go — I’m not here saying that it won’t. But there’s other people out there saying the opposite.”

Regardless of what happens with Mitchell, Windhorst and his ESPN colleagues Tim MacMahon and Tim Bontemps agreed during their discussion of the Cavs’ offseason that it probably doesn’t make sense to move forward with the team’s four core players, given the overlap between Mitchell’s and Garland’s skill sets, as well as Allen’s and Mobley’s.

While Mitchell will be the focus of the summer in Cleveland for many fans, the frontcourt issue looms large. Mobley had a solid series vs. Boston in the second round of the playoffs with Allen sidelined, and Allen was at his best earlier in the season when Mobley was on the shelf recovering from knee surgery. If the Cavs have to choose one of the two, it seems likely to be Mobley, who is younger, probably has a higher ceiling, and will be under team control for longer if he signs an extension this offseason.

“I would just say that while there’s extreme interest and excitement probably from certain fanbases to go to the trade machine and work out Donovan Mitchell trades, and maybe those will be needed in a month, we’ll see,” Windhorst said. “I would think the Cavs are going to be spending more time in this next month looking at possible Jarrett Allen trades, and what that could bring.”

As Bontemps observed in the Hoop Collective podcast, the Cavs seem unlikely to completely tear things down this offseason. Even if Mitchell doesn’t agree to an extension and ends up being traded, there’s still too much talent on the roster to bottom out, so in any trade discussions, the team would likely seek players who could step in and make an impact right away — or draft assets that could be flipped to acquire those sorts of players.

If the Cavs end up looking to move Allen and/or Garland, one obvious potential trade partner would be the Pelicans, who have been linked to Allen several times in the past and also have a need at point guard. A deal involving rumored trade candidate Brandon Ingram could be the sort of move that would better balance both rosters.

We want to know what you think. Does Bickerstaff need to go or has he earned another year at the helm in Cleveland? Will Mitchell sign an extension? If he doesn’t, what kind of trade should Cleveland be seeking? If he does, will Garland have to go? And what about the frontcourt? Should Allen be on the trade block this summer?

Head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Ted Stepien Rule

May 17th, 2024 at 10:14am CST by Luke Adams

While a rule like the Gilbert Arenas provision can flatter its namesake, the late Ted Stepien, former owner of the Cavaliers, may have preferred not to go down in history as the reference point for the Ted Stepien rule.

Stepien, who owned the Cavs in the early 1980s, made a series of trades that left the franchise without first-round picks for several years. To avoid having its teams end up in similar situations going forward, the NBA eventually instituted a rule that prohibited a club from trading out of the first round for consecutive future seasons. It’s now informally known as the “Stepien rule,” even though the Cavs owner isn’t explicitly mentioned in the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Because the Stepien rule applies only to future draft picks, teams are still permitted to trade their first-rounders every year if they so choose, but they can’t trade out of the first round for back-to-back future drafts.

For instance, since the Mavericks have traded their 2024 first-round pick to New York, they aren’t currently permitted to trade their 2025 first-rounder. Following the 2024 draft, Dallas would regain the right to trade that 2025 first-round pick, since the ’24 first-rounder will no longer be considered a future pick.

The Stepien rule does allow a team to trade consecutive future first-round picks if the team has acquired a separate first-rounder from another team for either of those years. So if Dallas were to trade for another team’s 2025 first-rounder next week, that would give the Mavericks the flexibility to move their own 2025 pick immediately, without having to wait until after the 2024 draft.

Teams are permitted to include protection on draft picks. This can create complications related to the Stepien rule, which prevents teams from trading a first-round pick if there’s any chance at all that it will leave a team without a first-rounder for two straight years.

For example, the Trail Blazers owe their lottery-protected 2025 first-round pick to Chicago — it will only convey if it falls outside of the top 14. That traded 2025 pick is protected through 2028, and as long as there’s still a chance it won’t convey immediately, the Blazers are prevented from unconditionally trading any of their next few first-round picks.

Portland could trade a conditional 2027 first-round pick, but a team acquiring that pick would have to be OK with the fact that it would be pushed back by one year every time the protected pick Portland has traded to Chicago doesn’t convey.

There are a handful of ways for teams to work around the Stepien rule. Phoenix is one team that has taken advantage of those workarounds in recent years. When the Suns acquired Kevin Durant at the 2023 deadline, they gave up first-round picks in 2023, 2025, 2027, and 2029. The Stepien rule prevented them from surrendering their 2024, 2026, or 2028 picks at that time, but remember, a team just needs to control one first-round pick in every other future draft — not necessarily its own pick.

That means the Suns were also able to include “swap rights” to their 2028 first-rounder in the deal for Durant and swap rights for their 2024, 2026, and 2030 first-rounders in a subsequent trade for Bradley Beal. Phoenix has actually traded swap rights twice on a couple of those future picks, putting them in line to receive the least favorable of three separate first-rounders. Giving up swap rights is a way for teams to extract value from a future first-round pick without moving out of that year’s first round.

The Suns will be able to work around the Stepien rule again this summer if they so choose by trading their 2024 first-rounder after a selection has been made. As noted above, once a pick has been used to draft a player, it’s no longer subject to the Stepien rule. Phoenix could agree to move its 2024 first-rounder prior to the draft, select a player on behalf of its trade partner, then officially finalize the deal after the draft.

Here are a few more rules related to trading draft picks:

  • The “Seven Year Rule” prohibits teams from trading draft picks more than seven years in advance. Once the 2024/25 league year begins on July 1, a 2031 draft pick can be traded, but a 2032 pick cannot be dealt.
  • The Seven Year Rule applies to protections on picks as well. If a team wants to trade a lottery-protected 2031 first-rounder this July, it can’t roll those protections over to 2032. That’s why, typically, the further into the future a traded pick is, the less likely it is to be heavily protected.
  • A team can add protection to a pick it has acquired as long as there wasn’t already protection on the pick. For instance, Brooklyn currently controls Phoenix’s unprotected 2025 first-round pick. If the Nets want to include that selection in a trade, they would be permitted to put, say, top-four protection on it.
  • Beginning in 2024/25, a team that finishes the season with a team salary above the second tax apron will lose the right to freely trade its first-round pick seven years out — that pick would become “frozen.” For example, if the Suns finish next season above the second apron, their 2032 first-rounder can’t be traded. If the team stays below the second apron for at least three of the subsequent four seasons, its pick becomes “unfrozen” and is once again tradable; if not, it remains frozen and is moved to the end of the first round for that draft.
  • For salary-matching purposes, a traded draft pick counts as $0 until the player signs a contract.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier version of this post were published in previous years.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Charlotte Hornets

May 16th, 2024 at 12:37pm CST by Luke Adams

The Hornets had postseason aspirations entering training camp in 2023, but their season never really got off the ground, due in large part to a series of injuries that affected nearly every one of their starters and rotation players.

Among those injuries: LaMelo Ball, Charlotte’s star point guard, appeared in only 22 games due to a right ankle ailment that required surgery; back issues limited promising young starting center Mark Williams to just 19 contests all season; and three-and-D wing Cody Martin, a key connecting player, ended up playing only 28 times after missing the first two months of the season while recovering from a procedure on his left knee.

The Hornets’ roster wasn’t exactly loaded with star-level talent to begin with, so without much room for error, the team was unable to overcome a constantly full injury report to stay in the hunt in the Eastern Conference. But that was probably a blessing in disguise. Falling out of contention early made it an easy decision to sell off talent – including veterans like Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington, and Gordon Hayward – for young players, draft picks, and expiring contracts prior to February’s trade deadline.

It also served as a good time for the new ownership group, headed by Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin, to overhaul the front office — they hired promising young executive Jeff Peterson away from the Nets to replace Mitch Kupchak as the club’s head of basketball operations. A season of change was capped by head coach Steve Clifford stepping down from his role at season’s end to transition to a position in the front office.

Charlotte’s short-term outlook might not look much different than it did 12 months ago, but with a new general manager (Peterson), a new head coach (Charles Lee), and a new young cornerstone player (2023’s No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller) in place, there’s more reason for optimism in the long term.

The Hornets’ Offseason Plan

When a new management group takes over a rebuilding team, the first order of business is to establish which of the incumbent players are part of the long-term plan. In the Hornets’ case, there’s one obvious sure thing: Miller, whose impressive rookie season was largely overlooked while Victor Wembanyama was doing things we’ve never seen before in San Antonio and Chet Holmgren was anchoring the defense for the West’s No. 1 seed in Oklahoma City.

But Miller, a versatile wing defender with size, averaged 17.3 points per game and made 37.3% of his three-pointers in his first NBA season. He’s just 21 years old and has legitimate star upside, so the fact that Charlotte will have him on a rookie scale contract for three more years is a huge boon for the franchise.

We can probably add Ball to that list of core building blocks too. He’ll need to be healthier going forward for the Hornets to count on him, but Ball – who is only 15 months older than Miller – has an All-Star berth under his belt and appeared to be on the verge of leveling up early in the 2023/24 season, averaging 25.9 points and 8.6 assists in his first 14 games before getting hurt in the 15th. His five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension will begin this summer, so barring an unexpected pivot from the new front office, it’s safe to assume the plan will be to continue adding pieces around Ball and Miller.

Assuming his back issue doesn’t linger, Williams looks like one solid piece to complement those two rising stars. The big man showed in 2023 – both at the end of his rookie season and the start of his sophomore year – that he has the potential to develop into a solid starting center. He has one more year before he becomes extension-eligible, so the Hornets won’t have to make any decisions on him in the short term — they’ll just hope he’s healthy enough to get a longer look at him as the starting five in 2024/25.

While there’s no obvious fourth long-term keeper under contract at this point, there are a couple more candidates who could join that group. The first is whichever prospect Charlotte drafts with the No. 6 pick.

Assuming the franchise remains fully committed to Ball, selecting another ball-dominant player in that spot might not make sense, but pretty much any other position is a possibility, given the relatively wide-open nature of the roster. That includes a sharpshooter (Reed Sheppard or Dalton Knecht), a three-and-D forward (Zaccharie Risacher), a secondary ball-handler and play-maker (Matas Buzelis), a wing scorer (Ron Holland), or even a rim-protecting big man (Donovan Clingan). Some, but not all, of those players will be off the board by the time Charlotte is on the clock at No. 6, and Peterson will have a chance to put his stamp on the roster with his choice in that spot.

The other player whom the Hornets could make part of their core is unrestricted free agent Miles Bridges, who returned after a year out of the league and showed no signs of rust, averaging 21.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in a team-high 37.4 minutes per game. However, Bridges’ free agency is more complicated than most.

The reason Bridges was out of the league for a year is because he was facing credible domestic assault charges. His case was resolved when he accepted a plea deal and was sentenced to three years of probation, at which point he re-signed for one year with the Hornets, served an NBA suspension, and then reclaimed his spot in the team’s starting lineup. However, he later faced new allegations of domestic violence following the resolution of the initial case.

Those newer charges were eventually dismissed due to insufficient evidence for a trial, but they won’t exactly work in Bridges’ favor as he seeks a lucrative, long-term deal. The Hornets have a series of questions to answer before investing in Bridges long-term. Are they confident his legal issues are fully behind him? Are they comfortable making a major financial investment in him from a moral – and public relations – perspective? Do they want him to be one of the faces of their franchise? If they do try to re-sign him, will the off-court baggage bring his value down, both in contract talks and in potential future trade negotiations? And beyond all that, exactly how much value does he provide on the court, where he has only made 35.0% of his three-pointers in one of five NBA seasons?

It’s obviously not in a rebuilding team’s best interest to let a talented 26-year-old player go for nothing, but giving Bridges a big payday and then having him show up in the headlines again for the wrong reasons would be a black eye on the organization. The Hornets have a lot to consider as they weigh Bridges’ future — if they have reservations, it could make sense to explore another short-term contract, a deal with protections for the team, or sign-and-trade scenarios.

There are no true potential impact players on the rest of the roster, but Grant Williams, Martin, Nick Richards, Vasilije Micic, and Tre Mann are solid enough depth pieces who could either be trade chips this offseason or could return to fill out next season’s roster.

Of those players, I’d consider Micic the most likely trade candidate. A salary-matching piece in the Hayward deal, the Serbian play-maker was given a chance to play real minutes down the stretch and showed he’s capable of playing a backup point guard role at the NBA level. Micic will be on a pseudo-expiring contract (he has a team option for 2025/26) and the 30-year-old rookie would likely prefer to play for a contender. His poor three-point shooting (27.9% on the season, including 29.4% in Charlotte) will hurt his value a little, but he could at least net a second-round pick if the Hornets take back an unwanted contract.

After taking into account the cap hold for Bridges and the No. 6 pick, along with the partial guarantee on Davis Bertans‘ option year, the Hornets won’t have significant cap room this summer, especially if they decide to retain some of their players with non-guaranteed contracts, including Seth Curry, Aleksej Pokusevski, Bryce McGowens, and JT Thor.

Still, they could easily have at least $15MM+ to work with (or $30MM+ if Bridges walks), plus the $8MM room exception. That space might be best spent on accommodating salary-dump trades with teams looking to shed salary.

Having taken a step backward last season by trading a series of veterans, the Hornets presumably aren’t giving Peterson a mandate to get the team back to the playoffs as soon as possible, so he can afford to take things slow and continue to stockpile draft assets — that patient, deliberate approach to the rebuild may line up the team to land another top-six pick in the 2025 draft, which is considered stronger at the top than this year’s.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Seth Curry ($4,000,000)
    • Curry’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 28.
  • Aleksej Pokusevski ($2,273,252)

    • Pokusevski’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 8.
  • Bryce McGowens ($2,019,699)
    • McGowens’ salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 18.
  • Leaky Black (two-way)
  • Marques Bolden (two-way)
  • Total: $8,292,951

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

  • Davis Bertans ($16,000,000): Bird rights
    • Bertans technically holds an early termination option. If he opts in, his salary will be partially guaranteed for $5,250,000.
  • Total: $16,000,000

Team Options

  • JT Thor ($1,988,598): Bird rights
    • Thor’s salary would remain non-guaranteed if his option is exercised.
  • Total: $1,988,598

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 6 overall pick ($7,510,680)
  • No. 42 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $7,510,680

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Tre Mann (rookie scale)
  • Cody Martin (veteran)
  • JT Thor (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Hornets’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Hornets project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce two trade exceptions – worth $3,585,600 and $442,826 – in order to use cap room. If they were to operate over the cap, they’d lose the room exception and would have access to the mid-level exception ($12,859,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,681,000).

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

May 15th, 2024 at 1:35pm CST by Rory Maher

The 2023/24 season was the first of the Wizards‘ full-fledged rebuild, which was arguably long overdue after five straight campaigns of finishing between 25 and 35 wins. While expectations were very low from a results standpoint, given the dearth of talent on the roster, I don’t think Washington’s new front office, which is run by president Michael Winger and GM Will Dawkins, anticipated the team to be as non-competitive as it was for much of the season — hence the mid-season coaching change from Wes Unseld Jr. to Brian Keefe.

In some ways, the Pistons being as dreadful as they were made things a little easier on the Wizards, since Detroit endured a historic 28-game losing streak and has been abysmal for multiple years now. But the Wizards only finished with one more win and a very similar net rating (-8.7 vs. -9.0; somehow the Hornets had the worst mark in the league at -10.6, while Portland was also at -9.0).

Detroit should be a cautionary tale for Washington of the pitfalls of being a perpetual bottom-feeder. The Wizards will be looking to make incremental gains in the coming season, as there doesn’t appear to be a straightforward way to infuse this roster with star-level talent, even with the addition of the No. 2 overall pick.

That’s not to say the season was a total lost cause. Fourth-year forward Deni Avdija had a breakout season, averaging 14.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.8 APG on .506/.374/.740 shooting in 75 games (30.1 MPG). It was pretty much a best-case scenario for his development, and the four-year, $55MM rookie scale extension he signed last offseason, which begins in ’24/25 and has a declining structure, looks quite team-friendly now.

Rookie Bilal Coulibaly also showed flashes of tantalizing two-way upside in his age-19 season. As one of the youngest players in his class, the No. 7 overall pick of the 2023 draft is still early in his development, but at minimum, he looks like a promising 3-and-D player with much more room to grow.

One player who has not impressed over his first two seasons is Johnny Davis, who was the last lottery pick (No. 10 overall in 2022) made by the previous front office regime led by Tommy Sheppard. The former Big Ten Player of the Year has struggled in his G League minutes, let alone the NBA, and despite having a real opportunity to carve out playing time at the end of the season amid injuries, he was largely outperformed by players on two-way deals. At this point, it would be a little surprising if the Wizards exercise their fourth-year option on his rookie scale contract.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan

Hiring a new head coach — Keefe is reportedly in the running and viewed by some as the leading candidate — and selecting a player with All-Star upside in the draft are the top priorities for the Wizards this offseason. The latter is easier said than done, of course.

Some people have compared the 2024 draft class with 2013, which saw Anthony Bennett go No. 1 overall. That draft had three All-Stars, including an all-time great in Giannis Antetokounmpo. It also featured quality players like CJ McCollum, Steven Adams, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Otto Porter Jr., Kelly Olynyk, and Dennis Schröder, among others.

After the lottery, general manager Will Dawkins said he believed June’s draft will produce multiple All-Stars, but they will likely take a few years to develop. That’s another clear indication Washington’s new front office is willing to be patient. A recent report indicated they’re trying to get as many low-cost chances as possible at landing a player (or players) who could develop into a star, which makes a lot of sense.

The cap hold for the No. 2 pick ($11,278,680), plus Richaun Holmes opting into his $12,876,780 player option, which is a lock to happen, means operating with cap room probably isn’t practical.

Even if the Wizards waived their non-guaranteed deals and renounced all their cap holds, they wouldn’t be a major player in free agency without attaching assets to move off unwanted salaries (Davis, Holmes, Marvin Bagley III). Going under the cap and using space would also make the Wizards lose access to their non-taxpayer mid-level exception and bi-annual exception, which are available to teams operating over the cap but under the first tax apron.

It’s more complicated than simply signing a player outright, but going the sign-and-trade route could be one option to add free-agent talent. While the Wizards didn’t really have any team-wide strengths in ’23/24, their lack of size, rebounding and interior defense were glaring weaknesses. If I were in the team’s front office, I would be pushing to try and acquire Isaiah Hartenstein in a sign-and-trade with New York.

Of course, the Knicks don’t have to agree to that, which is the primary reason sign-and-trades are more complicated. But New York also only has Hartenstein’s Early Bird rights and is limited to offering him a deal that starts at about $16MM per year. Hartenstein has proven to be a reliable and formidable defender with New York, plus he sets solid screens, crashes the glass, is an above-average passer, and he can even create for himself in a pinch. He’s only 26 years old. While there have been rumors Brooklyn center Nic Claxton could get a lot more money, I think Hartenstein is the more valuable player right now.

That said, I don’t think that scenario is particularly likely, even if having a player like Hartenstein would provide a much-needed presence in the frontcourt. For what it’s worth, The Athletic’s David Aldridge recently made a similar argument pushing for the Wizards to draft UConn center Donovan Clingan with the No. 2 overall pick.

Retaining Tyus Jones past the trade deadline was an indication that Washington will likely re-sign the veteran point guard, preferably to a short-term contract. That might mean paying him a little more annually but for fewer years (maybe he gets something like $35MM over two seasons). It also creates a mid-sized salary for matching purposes, and Jones is very reliable in what he provides, which is a consistently elite assist-to-turnover ratio and solid play-making. I also expect the Wizards to keep Landry Shamet‘s non-guaranteed $11MM deal on the books, as it expires after the ’24/25 season and could be useful in a trade.

Corey Kispert will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer and it will be interesting to see if a deal gets done. Winger and Dawkins have already shown a willingness to extend players they inherited (Avdija), and something in the range of $11-13MM annually over three or four years could be a reasonable outcome for both sides.

Kyle Kuzma will certainly pop up in trade rumors again, though it’s unclear if he’ll be moved. The declining nature of his deal — plus the fact that he’s under contract for three more years — means the Wizards can be patient in waiting for what they view as an ideal return package for the 28-year-old.

I do not think the Wizards will find any takers for Jordan Poole, who is owed $95.5MM over the next three years, and that’s fine. While Keefe’s 8-31 record was very similar to Unseld’s 7-36 mark, several players performed better when he became interim coach, including Avdija, Kispert and Poole.

If Poole continues to provide an offensive spark, it will further improve his value and increase Washington’s chances of moving him. He’s only 24 (he turns 25 next month), and I’d still much rather have his deal on the books than Bradley Beal‘s ($161MM over the next three years, with a full no-trade clause).

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 2 overall pick ($11,278,680 cap hold)
  • No. 26 overall pick ($2,630,040 cap hold)
  • No. 51 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $13,908,720

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Marvin Bagley III (veteran)
  • Richaun Holmes (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his player option is exercised).
  • Corey Kispert (rookie scale)
  • Landry Shamet (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Wizards’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Wizards project to be over the cap but below the tax line.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $12,402,000
  • Trade exception: $9,800,926
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $5,379,250
    • Expires on June 24.
  • Trade exception: $3,500,000
  • Trade exception: $1,508,547
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $308,380
    • Expires on June 24.
  • Trade exception: $300,000
    • Expires on June 24.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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Community Shootaround: Conference Semifinal Check-In

May 14th, 2024 at 12:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Of the NBA’s four conference semifinals currently in progress, one looks all but over. The Celtics, who entered the series as heavy favorites, hold a 3-1 lead over the Cavaliers, will host Game 5 (and a potential Game 7) in Boston, and are facing a banged-up Cleveland team that might not have its leading scorer (Donovan Mitchell) or defensive anchor (Jarrett Allen) back in action for a do-or-die game on Wednesday.

The other three series, however, remain very much up in the air, with each of them tied at two games apiece.

In the East, the Pacers have overtaken the Knicks as the betting favorites in their series — BetOnline.ag now lists Indiana at -145 to advance to the conference finals, with New York at +125. A fully healthy Knicks team would presumably still be favored to win the series, but this version of the club is anything but.

Already missing Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic when the second round began, New York has since lost Mitchell Robinson to a season-ending ankle injury and OG Anunoby to a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the last two games and will keep him on the shelf for Game 5. Jalen Brunson also isn’t playing at 100% and hasn’t looked quite the same since briefly exiting Game 2 due to a foot issue. He made just 37.2% of his field goal attempts and 18.2% of his three-pointers in the Knicks’ two losses in Indiana.

New York still holds the home court advantage in the series and has shown impressive resiliency over the course of an injury-plagued season. But will the Knicks finally run out of gas and succumb to a healthier and deeper Pacers team?

Over in the West, after impressive Game 4 victories, the Nuggets (-170) are once again considered the favorites to knock out the Timberwolves (+150) and the Thunder (-157) are back in the driver’s seat against the Mavericks (+137).

Denver and Minnesota combined to go 63-19 at home during the regular season, but the two Northwest rivals are 0-4 on their own courts in this series. Given the Nuggets’ championship pedigree and the advantage that the Denver elevation typically gives the home team, it’s no surprise that they’re now the popular pick to win the series, but it would be premature to rule out the Timberwolves after the way they played in those first two games of the series. The Wolves will need more from Karl-Anthony Towns, who scored just 27 points on 9-of-25 shooting (36.0%) in the team’s two home games.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, will go as far as Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving can take them, and neither guard came up big in Game 4 — the two stars combined to score just 27 points on 10-of-31 shooting (32.3%). Doncic has been hampered by knee and ankle injuries and likely won’t be 100% healthy until he gets some time this offseason to recover, but if he can give the Mavs performances like he did in Games 3 (29 points) and 4 (22 points, 15 rebounds), they’ll take it.

The Thunder, meanwhile, have had to work around the fact that starting guard Josh Giddey is something of a liability in this matchup — Giddey hasn’t played more than 17 minutes in any of the series’ four games. Oklahoma City has the depth to work around the issue, but it puts more pressure on the team’s other top play-makers and scorers, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, to carry the offensive load. Gilgeous-Alexander has delivered so far, scoring at least 29 points in all four games vs. Dallas and handing out 7.0 assists per contest.

We want to know what you think. It seems pretty safe to assume the Celtics will be in the conference finals, but which three teams will join them there?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and make your predictions!

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

May 13th, 2024 at 3:34pm CST by Luke Adams

With Cade Cunningham healthy and set to return after being limited to 12 games in 2022/23 due to a leg injury, the Pistons entered last fall with aspirations of being in the play-in mix and perhaps even getting their young core some postseason experience.

That goal seemed sensible enough through the first three games of the season, which included a pair of wins and a one-point loss. It looked – to put it mildly – increasingly unrealistic as Detroit lost its next 28 games in a row and 35 of its next 36 in total. Suddenly, the organization’s goal was simply to avoid the embarrassment of posting the NBA’s worst record of all-time. The team avoided that fate, but its 11-32 finish following a 3-36 start was hardly cause for legitimate optimism entering the summer.

It has been over four years since the Pistons launched their rebuild in earnest and three years since they landed the No. 1 overall pick that they used to draft Cunningham. The process that general manager Troy Weaver repeatedly referred to as a “restoration” rather than a rebuild was supposed to bear more fruit by now.

The lack of forward progress in Detroit has already cost Weaver his role as head of basketball operations and could result in more significant changes to the Pistons’ roster this offseason, with players once considered long-term building blocks perhaps having their futures on the roster reconsidered.

The Pistons’ Offseason Plan

The Pistons are in the market for a new head of basketball operations and until they officially make a hire, it’s hard to get a sense of exactly what direction their offseason will take. Assuming that new executive has the final say on basketball decisions, which is the expectation, the way he feels about specific players will go a long way toward determining the moves Detroit makes.

At this point though, it seems safe to assume that Cunningham isn’t going anywhere. The 22-year-old will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and looks like the Piston whose ceiling is the highest, so I’d expect the organization to make an effort to get him locked up for the long term. The only real question there is whether or not he gets the max.

As bad as the Pistons have been since Cunningham made his debut in 2021, he continues to trend in the right direction on an individual level, establishing new career highs in 2023/24 in categories like points (22.7) and assists (7.5) per game, along with field goal percentage (44.9%) and three-point percentage (35.5%). It would be nice if 2022/23 hadn’t been a lost season or if he’d been something a little closer to an All-Star level player this year, but I suspect he’s shown enough to warrant a maximum-salary investment — especially since Detroit’s cap for the years to come is pretty clear.

I’d expect Ausar Thompson, last year’s No. 5 overall pick, to remain part of the core for now too. His jump shot has a long way to go (he made just 21 of 113 three-pointers as a rookie), but he’s a terrific positional rebounder and has tremendous upside as a defender, so should develop into a valuable role player even if he never becomes a reliable threat from outside. If the three-point percentage increases, his ceiling as a player will increase along with it.

Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, the Pistons’ lottery picks in 2022, once looked like foundational pieces, but that’s not a certainty heading into the summer of 2024. There are questions about Ivey’s fit next to Cunningham and about Duren’s ability to grow into the kind of defensive anchor and rim protector Detroit would need him to be.

That’s not to say there’s not a place for them in the Pistons’ future, but it’s certainly more of an open question than it seemed to be a year or two ago, especially since the new head of basketball operations will have no particular attachment to those youngsters, having not drafted them himself. The same goes for Isaiah Stewart, who could become a trade chip on his new rookie scale extension if Detroit decides he’s not part of the long-term plan.

Of course, the Pistons will have the opportunity to add another young prospect to their core this June with the No. 5 overall pick in the draft. There has been some speculation that first-rounder could be used as a trade chip, but that will depend on which players come off the board in the top four and what kind of offers are on the table for the pick.

There’s not a ton of excitement about the top of this year’s draft class, but that means the drop-off from No. 1 to No. 5 might not be significant. The Pistons’ new president may want to put his stamp on the franchise right away by taking a swing on a potential cornerstone in that spot. A sharpshooter like Reed Sheppard, a play-making forward like Matas Buzelis, or a three-and-D forward like Zaccharie Risacher would be among the most intriguing options, assuming they’re still available.

The Pistons only have about $57MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2024/25, so even after accounting for cap holds for restricted free agent Simone Fontecchio and the No. 5 pick, they could create upwards of $65MM+ in cap room. After using up that room, they’d be able to go over the cap to re-sign Fontecchio using his Early Bird rights, which I expect they’ll do. A three-point shooter with some size, Fontecchio made a strong positive impression down the stretch after being acquired from Utah and should be in line for a new deal worth at least $12-14MM per year.

Besides Fontecchio, two other notable Pistons are eligible for restricted free agency. However, I don’t expect either former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman or unlikely 50-point man Malachi Flynn to receive qualifying offers to make them RFAs. They simply haven’t shown enough during their first four seasons in the league to warrant it.

Now, it’s worth noting that Wiseman’s qualifying offer amount dropped by more than half, to about $7.7MM, when he failed to meet the starter criteria, so if the new head of basketball operations remains high on the big man, perhaps the Pistons will decide to take a shot on him for at least one more year. But I’d be surprised if Wiseman gets any sort of multiyear deal like the one Detroit gave Marvin Bagley III in a similar spot a couple years ago.

So what’s the plan for the rest of the cap room? Rumors in recent weeks have suggested that Tobias Harris, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, and Nic Claxton could be among the free agent targets near the top of Detroit’s board, with trade candidates like Brandon Ingram and Zach LaVine also worth keeping an eye on.

Of course, as we’ve mentioned a couple times already, the new president’s likes and dislikes could go a long way toward morphing that list into something new as the offseason progresses. Remember, Houston was viewed as a prime suitor for James Harden a year ago until the team hired a new head coach (Ime Udoka) who wasn’t all that interested in pursuing the former MVP.

The Rockets, who had the most cap space of any NBA team in 2023, ultimately ended up targeting a couple hard-nosed veterans – Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks – who were capable of making an impact on both ends of the floor and complementing Houston’s young core. The Rockets arguably overpaid both players to make sure they landed them.

With a ton of cap room and few long-term commitments on their books, the Pistons could afford to take a similar path this summer, throwing significant short-term money at their top targets and getting out from under those contracts before they’ll need to invest in second deals for most of their young players.

I expect the club to focus on wings who can shoot and big men who can play defense, so the free agents mentioned above all make sense. If they’re more interested in spreading their cap space across three or four players, then Gary Trent Jr., Royce O’Neale, Caleb Martin, Isaac Okoro, and Isaiah Hartenstein are a few others who might be fits.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Note: Metu’s and Umude’s salaries would remain non-guaranteed if their options are exercised.

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Pistons, Rhoden’s qualifying offer would be worth the minimum salary for a player worth two years of NBA experience (projected to be $2,093,637). It will include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 5 overall pick ($8,269,440)
  • No. 53 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $8,269,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Cade Cunningham (rookie scale)
  • Evan Fournier (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
  • Quentin Grimes (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Pistons project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce three trade exceptions – worth $10,489,600, $1,386,800, and $800,926 – in order to use cap room.

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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