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Community Shootaround: NBA’s Proposed Schedule Changes

December 21st, 2019 at 4:28pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The NBA’s traditional national broadcast ratings are down 15% this season. There are other ways to measure interest in this most modern of sports, but that hasn’t stopped the NBA from pitching some drastic schemes to drum up viewer and player interest in the league prior to the playoffs. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver is an innovative thinker, and he deserves credit for striving towards some intriguing big-picture adjustments.

Hoops Rumors detailed yesterday that the NBA has now sent all 30 teams the league’s proposed scheduling changes for the 2021/22 season, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Charania’s Athletic colleague Michael Lee thinks that all the chatter about free agency, trades, and interpersonal drama that has made the NBA a year-round entertainment has also served to dilute interest in the on-court product. This writer respectfully disagrees with that assessment. Interest in every behind-the-scenes aspect of the NBA is a great way to keep basketball in casual sports fans’ thoughts even during the summer, traditionally a time for baseball to get more shine.

The metrics for measuring engagement need to change, and the NBA needs to figure out how to monetize interest and viewership across 21st century platforms. The cord-cutting revolution is real, and it may have come to the NBA, as reflected in the ratings trouble.

For the changes to be implemented in the 2021/22 season, at least 23 of the 30 teams and the players’ union would need to approve the changes at their April 2020 NBA Board of Governors meeting, per Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. A November piece from Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe first unpacked these new concepts.

Let’s tackle each big item.

The Regular Season Game Count Change

  • The league’s schedule, outside of the in-season tournament (see below), would be reduced from 82 to 78 games.

The In-Season Tournament

  • The NBA’s proposed in-season tournament would begin with pool play as part of the regular-season schedule. Each team would play four home and four road games during pool play.
  • Pool-play records would determine the six divisional winners. Two wild card teams would be decided by the next-best records in pool play.
  • These eight teams would advance to an eight-team, single-elimination tournament.
  • The tournament’s quarterfinals would be played at the home market of the teams with the better record. The semifinals and finals would be played at a team-neutral location.
  • The tournament champion would be the team that wins all three of its knockout-round bouts.
  • Each of that champion team’s players would receive $1MM. The champion team’s coaching staff would receive a $1.5MM bonus.

The Postseason Changes

  • There would be a postseason play-in qualifying tournament for the No. 7 and No. 8 playoff seeds. The six teams with the best records in each conference would experience no change in qualifying.
  • The four final playoff teams, regardless of conference, would be re-seeded based on regular-season record. Woj and Lowe’s article noted that the WNBA has been reseeding its final four matchups for years.
  • According to the earlier Woj and Lowe piece, the play-in tournament would comprise two four-team tournaments in each conference, with the seventh, eighth, ninth and 10th seeds competing.
  • The seventh seed would play at home against the eighth seed in a single game contest. The winner of that single game would net the seventh spot in the playoffs.
  • The 10th seed would play at the home arena of the ninth seed in a single game matchup. The winner of this game would compete with the loser of the 7-vs.-8 game for the final playoff seed. Thus, the seventh and eighth seed would have two opportunities to make the big dance, whereas the ninth and 10th seeds would effectively play two single-elimination games to punch their tickets.

In this fan’s opinion, creating a mandated elimination-style postseason play-in tournament, with extra accommodation being awarded to the seventh and eighth seeds, is a great way to keep the early goings of the playoffs interesting. The play-in tournament, however, feels wholly superfluous as currently constructed. Reducing the regular season to 78 games and enacting the play-in tournament would both be fun new wrinkles for 2021/22.

What do you think? Which of these policies (or which parts of these policies) should the NBA enact?

Head to the comment section below!

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Poll: The West’s Last Two Playoff Spots

December 21st, 2019 at 2:11pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

In an epic new piece published yesterday, The Athletic’s John Hollinger takes a look at the nine middling NBA teams vying for the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference. Hollinger notes that the West used to be mighty across all eight of its playoff teams. It’s taken 45.4 wins on average for a team to make the playoffs since 2000.

A team with a losing record has not made the cut since 1997; all nine teams in the bottom of the West have losing records at this point in 2019/20. Last season’s eighth seed, the Clippers, won 48 games.

Hollinger feels that, while the 6-24 Warriors and 10-19 Grizzlies could each make theoretical runs for the final two playoff spots, it is not in their best interests to do so. Hollinger expects Memphis to instead gauge the trade market for its attractive expiring veteran contracts (Andre Iguodala, Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill).

Hollinger also dismisses the 7-23 Pelicans as being much of a contender for the final two playoff spots in the West, observing that reaching just 38 wins would be a fairly Herculean task for a team that just lost a staggering 13 games in a row. The team would have to win 62% of its remaining games to reach even that benchmark. With Zion Williamson still in street clothes for the indefinite future, New Orleans may be best served moving off some of its best veterans (Jrue Holiday, J.J. Redick and Derrick Favors) and throwing in the towel.

The Spurs and Timberwolves have nursed eight- and nine-game losing streaks of their own (and Minnesota may yet add to its streak). San Antonio’s two $20MM+, 30+ ex-All Stars, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, may be difficult to trade thanks to their performances this year. Minnesota three-and-D specialist Robert Covington could be a terrific trade attribute, on just the second year of a very reasonable four-year, $62MM deal.

After being the darlings of the NBA’s first month, the Suns have lost five straight games. The Kings kicked off their season with five consecutive defeats of their own. Hollinger considers Phoenix candidates to make a trade with an eye towards roster improvement this season, while he thinks the Kings need to see how former top draft picks De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III, who have missed most of the year with injuries, will help goose the team’s lackadaisical offense.

The Trail Blazers at present are $12MM into the NBA’s luxury tax, and Hollinger expects them to move one of their several expiring contracts and/or future draft picks to either (a) get under the tax threshold, (b) improve the team, or (c) both. With All-NBA point guard Damian Lillard still operating at the peak of his powers, shooting guard CJ McCollum providing steady offense, and injured center Jusuf Nurkic expected back at some point this season, the Blazers may have enough talent to sneak into the playoffs even with a cheaper supporting cast.

Hollinger accurately points out that the No. 7-seeded Thunder, fronted by several veterans GM Sam Presti would love to offload, are currently the class of this underwhelming crop. Though Hollinger is confident Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul (having a potential All Star season if he stays healthy), and Dennis Schroder could be had for the right price. Steven Adams is not mentioned, but the same holds true for Oklahoma City’s $25.8MM center.

To this writer, the Trail Blazers and Suns feel like the teams with the right combination of talent and desire to be left standing when the dust settles. The Timberwolves and Thunder will be hard-pressed to not offload at least one of their more crucial starters. The Kings’ trade flexibility has been doomed by the four-year, $85MM summer contract they awarded to Harrison Barnes, who will never be an All-Star.

Which teams do you think will make the cut for these final two playoff spots in the West? Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Central Division

December 20th, 2019 at 9:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Central Division:

Bruce Brown, Pistons, 23, SG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3.9MM deal in 2018
The Pistons will have a lot of tough decisions to make prior to the trade deadline and during next off-season. Guaranteeing Brown’s $1.66MM salary for next season will be the easiest one. Brown forced his way into the lineup last season as a defensive specialist. That’s still his calling card but he’s also shown he can play the point and his offensive game is developing. The 2018 second-round pick has averaged 16 PPG over the last three games. Coach Dwane Casey believes Brown’s offense will eventually catch up with his defense, which will make him a long-term starter in the league.

Kris Dunn, Bulls, 25, SG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $17.5MM deal in 2016
When Chicago acquired Tomas Satoransky in a sign-and-trade and drafted Coby White in the first round, Dunn entered training camp with no defined role. To his credit, the former lottery pick didn’t sulk. Otto Porter‘s injury has opened up steady playing time for Dunn in a smaller lineup. He’s an afterthought at the offensive end but he’s shown some defensive tenacity. This week, he hounded Bradley Beal into one of his worst shooting nights in recent years. The Bulls can make Dunn a restricted free agent by extending a $7MM qualifying offer (or $4.6MM if he doesn’t meet the starter criteria). That’s certainly not a given, but considering Dunn’s outlook in October, he’s at least positioning himself for a multi-year offer.

Jordan Clarkson, Cavaliers, 27, SG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $50MM deal in 2016
Clarkson signed with superagent Rich Paul over the summer entering his walk year. That should help him land a multi-year contract when he hits unrestricted free agency in July. Clarkson is basically “doing his thing” again for the rebuilding Cavaliers, providing instant offense off the bench. He’s the team’s third-leading scorer (13.9 PPG) despite averaging just 22.7 MPG. Clarkson’s 3-point shooting (35.1%) is above his career average. If can become more consistent from long range, he’ll be even more valuable on the open market.

T.J. McConnell, Pacers, 27, PG (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $7MM deal in 2019
McConnell was a starter for Philadelphia at the beginning of his career. He’s now settled in as a solid second-unit floor leader. McConnell lacks a 3-point shot but he’s adept at breaking down defenses and finding his teammates. He’s averaging 4.9 APG in just 17.7 MPG. After a ho-hum stretch, he’s perked up the last three games, averaging 10 PPG and 5.7 APG. His $3.5MM salary for next season is partially guaranteed. It’s hard to see Indiana letting McConnell go at that modest rate.

Ersan Ilyasova, Bucks, 32, PF (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $21MM deal in 2018
The Bucks already have enough salary commitments next season to put them over the projected cap. Milwaukee will have to decide before free agency whether to guarantee Ilyasova’s $7MM salary for next season. It’s a safe bet the Bucks will seek a cheaper and/or younger backup to superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Ilyasova’s 3-point shooting has picked up lately but he’s still a subpar 32.8% for the season. He’s averaging 16.3 MPG, his lowest figure since his rookie season. Ilyasova will hook on somewhere next season as a reserve stretch four but likely at a reduced rate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Northwest Division

December 20th, 2019 at 12:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

The Northwest Division is primed for a potentially eventful 2020 trade deadline. The Thunder have veterans to shop. The Timberwolves want a point guard. The Nuggets have the pieces to put together a package for an impact player. And the Jazz and Trail Blazers may be looking to shake things up after up-and-down starts.

As we wait to see what these teams have in mind, let’s take a closer look at three more potential trade candidates from around the Northwest:

Malik Beasley, SG
Denver Nuggets
$2.7MM cap hit; RFA in 2020

Beasley enjoyed a breakout season in 2018/19, boosting his scoring average from 3.2 PPG to 11.3 PPG and posting an impressive .474/.402/.848 shooting line as a key member of the Nuggets’ rotation. After failing to come to terms on an extension with the club this fall, he has struggled out of the gate in 2019/20 and is no longer receiving consistent minutes on a deep Denver squad.

For teams in need of outside shooting help, Beasley – who is still making 41.1% of his outside attempts this season – may look like a tantalizing buy-low target. He’ll be a restricted free agent next summer, so any team that wants to keep him beyond this season should have no problem doing so, assuming he doesn’t receive an exorbitant offer sheet next July.

The Nuggets are in a position where it might make sense to consolidate their depth in a trade package if the right impact player is available. Such a deal, which could also open up some additional playing time for promising young forward Michael Porter Jr., may very well involve Beasley.

Danilo Gallinari, F
Oklahoma City Thunder
$22.6MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Gallinari is one of the NBA’s most obvious trade candidates this winter, and the only reason he wasn’t included in our initial look at the Northwest last month is because the Thunder have an even more obvious trade candidate in Chris Paul.

Moving Gallinari appears more realistic than dealing CP3, since Gallinari’s cap hit isn’t quite as exorbitant and his contract is expiring. The challenge for Oklahoma City will be finding a trade partner in need of a scoring forward that has the contract(s) necessary to salary-match and a first-round pick – or a promising young prospect – to spare.

Portland, with Kent Bazemore‘s and Hassan Whiteside‘s expiring contracts, initially looked like an ideal fit, but the Trail Blazers have been talking as if they’re looking ahead to future seasons rather than just focusing on this one, so Gallinari might not be near the top of their wish list. If that’s the case, we’ll see if OKC can find another team in position to make a deal work.

Dante Exum, G
Utah Jazz
$9.6MM cap hit; $9.6MM guaranteed salary in 2020/21; UFA in 2021

The Jazz have showed remarkable patience with Exum since selecting him fifth overall in the 2014 draft, but the Australian guard doesn’t really seem any closer to being an impact player than he was five years ago. Utah hasn’t given up on him yet, but at this point a change of scenery might be the best thing for the 24-year-old, especially if another team still believes in his upside.

Because his contract has another guaranteed year beyond 2019/20, Exum probably doesn’t have positive trade value, but he’d make a good salary-matching piece if the Jazz try to make a roster upgrade — the only other mid-level type contract on the team’s books belongs to Joe Ingles, who can’t and won’t be traded this season.

I’d expect Exum to finish the season in Utah, but he’s worth keeping an eye on because of his cap hit.

Revisit the rest of our 2019/20 Trade Candidate series right here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Sixers, Mavs Control Valuable 2020 Second-Round Picks

December 19th, 2019 at 11:22am CST by Luke Adams

Second-round picks are often viewed by fans as expendable assets that can be thrown into trade offers without much risk of losing a future building block. And that may be true of many playoff teams’ second-rounders, which fall in the 45-60 range. Those selections are frequently used on draft-and-stash prospects or two-way players and don’t have a particularly high hit rate.

However, second-round picks that land in the 30s are only slightly less valuable than late first-round picks. Since 2015, Malcolm Brogdon, Devonte’ Graham, Montrezl Harrell, Cedi Osman, Ivica Zubac, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Richaun Holmes, Semi Ojeleye, and Patrick McCaw are among the players that have been selected in the 31-39 range.

With that in mind, it’s worth considering which teams have acquired an extra second-round pick that projects to fall in that range in 2020. For a contending team, those draft picks are valuable trade chips that could be dangled in negotiations this winter, especially if the contender in question doesn’t have its own first-round pick to offer.

No club is better positioned in this regard than the Sixers. As our tracker shows, Philadelphia projects to have two early second-round picks in 2020, based on the NBA’s current reverse standings. The Sixers will receive the more favorable of the Nets‘ and Knicks‘ second-round picks and will also receive the Hawks‘ second-rounder. Currently, Atlanta’s pick projects to land at No. 32, while New York’s will be No. 34 or 35.

The 76ers have traded their own 2020 first-round pick to Brooklyn, but if they want to upgrade their roster at this season’s deadline, the Hawks’ and/or Knicks’ second-rounders figure to be on the table and should appeal to rebuilding teams.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, owe their 2021 and 2023 first-round picks to New York, which prevents them from offering their 2020 first-rounder in a trade due to the Stepien Rule. However, they control the Warriors‘ second-round pick for ’20, which should be nearly as good as a first-rounder — it currently projects to be the No. 31 overall pick, since Golden State has the league’s worst record. Attaching that pick to Courtney Lee‘s expiring contract could be the start of a promising trade package for Dallas.

The Sixers and Mavericks are the only contending teams that own early 2020 second-round picks, but a few more of those early second-rounders have been moved. Here are the other traded 2020 picks that appear likely to land high in the second round:

  • Hornets own Cavaliers‘ second-round pick (projected to be No. 34 or 35).
  • Pelicans own Wizards‘ second-round pick (No. 36).
  • Wizards own most favorable of Grizzlies‘ (No. 37) or Bulls‘ (No. 38) second-round pick.
    • Note: The Bulls will receive the least favorable of these two picks.
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Why Some Contenders’ Trade Options Will Be Limited

December 19th, 2019 at 8:46am CST by Luke Adams

When David Aldridge of The Athletic polled NBA executives in November on Andre Iguodala‘s eventual landing spot, the responses were nearly unanimous. Nearly every exec who spoke to Aldridge predicted that Iguodala would ultimately end up with the Lakers.

However, with the Grizzlies standing firm on their stance that they intend to trade Iguodala rather than buy him out, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which those execs will be proven right.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the NBA’s trade rules, in order to take back Iguodala’s $17,185,185 salary, the Lakers would have to send out $12,185,185 in outgoing salary. The Lakers have three players earning more than that amount on their own: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Danny Green. It seems safe to assume none of those players will be included in a deal for Iguodala.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope‘s $8.09MM cap charge could be a good starting point in putting together a package for Iguodala, but Caldwell-Pope is one of three Lakers who has a de facto no-trade clause after re-signing with the team this past offseason — JaVale McGee and Rajon Rondo are the others. There’s probably no good reason for any of those players to approve a trade from the 24-4 Lakers to the 10-18 Grizzlies.

So what’s left? Even if the Lakers were to package all their next-biggest contracts, including Avery Bradley ($4.77MM), DeMarcus Cousins ($3.5MM), and Quinn Cook ($3MM), they’d have to include at least four players just to reach the threshold to take back Iguodala’s salary. That would mean either asking the Grizzlies to waive three players or getting other teams involved, neither of which presents a particularly realistic path to a deal.

The Lakers are perhaps the most striking example of how a lack of expendable contracts in the mid-level range ($8-12MM) may limit teams’ trade options this winter. But they’re hardly the only example.

Consider the Celtics. They only have three players earning between $5MM and $32.7MM in 2019/20. Those three players are Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart, and I wouldn’t expect the team to seriously consider moving any of them. For the C’s, acquiring a player in the $15-20MM range would mean packaging together at least three players earning $5MM or less, and three-for-one or four-for-one deals aren’t easy to pull off during the season.

The Sixers are in this group too. They have just two players with ’19/20 cap hits between $4.77MM and $27.5MM — Josh Richardson ($10.12MM) and Ben Simmons ($8.11MM). Trading Simmons probably isn’t a consideration anyway, but doing so would be virtually impossible due to the poison pill provision attached to his newly-signed extension. If Philadelphia wants to put together a trade package without including Richardson, it would likely mean starting with Mike Scott ($4.77MM) and Zhaire Smith ($3.06MM), which will limit the team’s ability to take on a bigger contract.

The Rockets had this quandary in mind when they signed Nene to an incentive-packed contract that bumped his cap hit to $10MM, despite a guarantee of just $2.56MM. The team essentially tried to create an expendable mid-level trade chip out of thin air, but the NBA thwarted the plan, ruling that Nene would only count for $2.56MM for matching purposes. As a result, Houston’s only contracts worth more than $3.54MM belong to the team’s five most important players, and one of them (Eric Gordon at $14.06MM) can’t be traded at all this season because he recently signed an extension.

The Clippers have one potentially expendable mid-level deal, but Maurice Harkless ($11.01MM) has been a pretty effective rotation player for the team this season, so L.A. would only move him for a clear upgrade. The Jazz and Raptors each have one contract in the mid-level range that could be used to build a trade package, but Dante Exum ($9.6MM) and Norman Powell ($10.12MM) both have multiple years left on their deals, complicating their value.

For certain trade targets, this dearth of expendable mid-level contracts among contenders won’t matter — there’s a viable path to match the salary of a player like Jae Crowder ($7.82MM) or even Robert Covington ($11.3MM) with some of those smaller deals.

Still, the salary-matching factor is one that shouldn’t be overlooked when it comes to pricier trade candidates like Iguodala or Danilo Gallinari ($22.62MM). Every team except the Hawks is currently over the cap, so every team with title aspirations is subject to those salary-matching rules, which are even more restrictive on taxpaying teams.

At this point, contenders with movable contracts in the $10-15MM range, such as the Mavericks (Courtney Lee, $12.76MM), Heat (multiple players), and Nuggets (multiple players) appear better positioned to make certain deals to improve their rosters at the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Southwest Division

December 18th, 2019 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

The Southwest could end up being one of the NBA’s most interesting divisions as the trade deadline approaches. The Mavericks and Rockets are headed for the postseason and may be motivated to make roster upgrades. On the other end of the spectrum, the Grizzlies were always willing to sell, and disappointing seasons may clear the way for the Spurs and Pelicans to join them as sellers.

After initially identifying three trade candidates from the Southwest last month, we’re examining three more today. Let’s dive in…

Jrue Holiday, G
New Orleans Pelicans
$26.2MM cap hit; $26.2MM cap hit in 2020/21; $27.1MM player option for 2021/22

Marc Stein of The New York Times injected some intrigue into this season’s trade market on Tuesday when he suggested that the Pelicans no longer view Jrue Holiday as untouchable. A two-time All-Defensive player and a former All-Star, Holiday is capable of playing on or off the ball and may be the most appealing trade chip on the market this winter.

Of course, just because the Pelicans are open to listening to inquires doesn’t mean they’ll simply take the best offer they get for Holiday at the deadline. It will likely require a substantial package to pry him out of New Orleans, particularly since he’s under contract for at least one more year beyond this season — the Pels could wait until the offseason or even the 2021 deadline to shop Holiday more aggressively.

If the Pelicans do seriously consider a deal this season, I’d expect the team to seek a package with a similar structure to the one they got for Davis, featuring a mix of young players and draft picks. The Nuggets, Heat, and Timberwolves are among the teams that should be motivated to pursue Holiday and might have the assets to get something done.

DeMar DeRozan, SG
San Antonio Spurs
$27.7MM cap hit; $27.7MM player option for 2020/21

Another former All-Star, DeRozan almost certainly won’t be as sought-after a trade target as Holiday, even if the Spurs convey a willingness to move him. He’s not a strong defender and his limitations from beyond the arc will turn some teams off.

For instance, Orlando is in need of scoring help and reportedly expressed interest in DeRozan, but given their roster construction, the Magic would likely prefer a player who can stretch the floor and help improve their spacing. DeRozan isn’t that player.

DeRozan’s contract also complicates matters. A team focused on 2021 flexibility may like the idea of acquiring the veteran guard and having him exercise his 2020/21 player option to keep him around for the next year-and-a-half. But there’s no guarantee DeRozan won’t opt out at season’s end, so a potential trade partner would have to be comfortable with either losing him in 2020 or ponying up for a new contract at that time.

Throw in the fact that the Spurs haven’t made a midseason trade in nearly six years and there are plenty of factors working against a DeRozan deal. But if San Antonio continues to slip out of playoff contention, it’s an idea the team will have to at least consider.

Jae Crowder, F
Memphis Grizzlies
$7.8MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Andre Iguodala has been the most-discussed trade candidate in Memphis, but teams in need of help on the wing may end up pivoting to Crowder instead.

Unlike Iguodala, Crowder has actually played this season, averaging more than 31 minutes per game in 26 starts for the Grizzlies. It hasn’t been one of his best seasons – his shooting line has slipped to .376/.314/.746 – but Crowder is averaging career-best rates in rebounds and assists and remains capable of filling a three-and-D role.

Perhaps most importantly, his expiring contract has a cap charge nearly $10MM less than Iguodala’s $17MM+ figure. A non-taxpaying team would only have to send out about $4.4MM in salary to meet the salary-matching requirements for Crowder, which would be much more realistic for several contending teams that lack expendable mid-level contracts.

Revisit the rest of our 2019/20 Trade Candidate series right here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Will An L.A. Team Win The 2020 NBA Finals?

December 18th, 2019 at 2:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Following the series of offseason moves that saw Anthony Davis team up with LeBron James for the Lakers and Kawhi Leonard and Paul George join forces with the Clippers, NBA fans and observers spent the next several months anticipating a season in which both Los Angeles teams were legit contenders for the first time in years.

Through the season’s first two months, those two clubs have actually exceeded expectations. The Lakers were expected to experience at least a few growing pains as they incorporated Davis and the rest of their newly-added rotation players, but there has been no adjustment period — the team has a 24-4 record and is on pace to win 70 games.

For the Clippers, George’s lingering shoulder issue and Leonard’s load-management plan were potential red flags, and there was a widespread belief that the club may not hit its stride until later in the season. That’s still possible, but the early results have been pretty impressive too. The 21-8 Clippers are on pace for 59 wins.

With the Nuggets and Jazz playing inconsistent ball and the Spurs and Trail Blazers off to disastrous starts, the Lakers and Clippers have emerged as the Western Conference’s most dominant teams so far in 2019/20. In fact, a panel of ESPN analysts and reporters polled on this season’s outcomes unanimously predicted that the two L.A. teams will meet in the Western Finals.

That ESPN poll included another interesting question, asking its panelists whether they’d bet on one of the two L.A. clubs or one of the NBA’s other 28 teams to win the 2019/20 title. Only 30.4% of respondents took the field, with the other 69.6% forecasting a championship for Los Angeles.

We want to know what you think. If you had to make a prediction today, would you pick a Los Angeles team to win this season’s title, or are you betting on the field? And if you’re taking one of the L.A. clubs, do you view the Lakers or the Clippers as the frontrunner?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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NBA Players Who Still Can’t Be Traded

December 16th, 2019 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Most of 2019’s offseason signees became eligible to be traded over the weekend. However, while most players on NBA contracts can now be dealt, there are still a handful of players who remain ineligible to be traded — at least for now.

Here’s a breakdown of the players still facing trade restrictions:

Players who met the January 15 criteria:

Not every player who signed a free agent contract in the offseason had their trade restrictions lifted on December 15. For a select handful of players, that date will be January 15 instead.

These players all meet a specific set of criteria: Not only did they re-sign with their previous team this offseason, but they got a raise of at least 20%, their salary is worth more than the minimum, and their team was over the cap, using Bird or Early Bird rights to sign them.

The following players meet this criteria and will become trade-eligible on January 15:

Players who signed as free agents after September 15:

Technically, the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement states that a player who signs a free agent contract can’t be traded for three months or until December 15, whichever comes later. Most big-name free agents sign new contracts in July, so we default to December 15 in those cases. That’s not the case for everyone though, as the three-month rule applies to any player who signs after September 15.

Here are the players who signed after September 15 and remain on NBA rosters, along with the dates they’ll become trade-eligible:

Of course, since this season’s trade deadline falls on February 6, players who signed their contracts after November 6 won’t be trade-eligible at all until after the season. The following players fit that bill as of today:

Players who recently signed veteran contract extensions:

When a player signs a veteran contract extension that exceeds the NBA’s extend-and-trade rules – which are fairly restrictive – he can’t be traded for six months.

As our extension tracker shows, nine veteran extensions have been signed so far in 2019/20. Of those nine, only one – Kyle Lowry‘s – didn’t exceed the league’s extend-and-trade rules. Of the other eight, three were signed prior to August 6, meaning those players will become trade-eligible by February 6.

Here are the trade-eligible dates for those players:

The following players who signed extensions can’t be dealt at all this season, either because they signed their extensions after August 6 or because they signed a super-max extension.

Players who can be dealt — with caveats:

The players in this group can technically be traded, so we won’t list them all. However, a variety of potential roadblocks may impact whether or not it’s actually realistic to move them this season. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Players whose contracts meet certain criteria have the ability to block trades that involve them. Here’s the full list of 16 players who have that veto ability in 2019/20, including Lakers veterans Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, JaVale McGee, and Rajon Rondo.
  • Players who have trade kickers in their contracts will receive bonuses if they’re traded, which can complicate some potential deals financially. The 23 players with trade kickers in their contracts, including Steven Adams and LaMarcus Aldridge, are listed here.
  • A player can’t be aggregated with another player for salary-matching purposes if he has been traded to an over-the-cap team within the last two months. That restriction doesn’t apply to anyone right now, but any player traded between now and February 6 won’t be eligible to be aggregated in a second deal before the deadline.
  • The “poison pill provision” applies to players who signed rookie scale extensions that will begin the following season. The poison pill provision, which we outline in greater detail in a glossary entry, can make salary-matching very difficult in trades. It currently affects nine players, including Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray.
  • If a team traded a player to another team during the 2019 offseason, it can’t re-acquire that player from that team again during the season. For instance, after acquiring him from Golden State in July, the Grizzlies couldn’t trade Andre Iguodala back to the Warriors this season. This rule applies to any trade consummated since the end of the NBA Finals.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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12 Notable Players Who Are Now Trade-Eligible

December 16th, 2019 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Most of the players who signed new contracts as free agents this past summer became eligible on Sunday to be traded. That list includes a number of stars — Celtics point guard Kemba Walker, Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard, and the Nets duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are among the players who can now be dealt.

Of course, that group of players won’t be traded this season or anytime soon. While many noteworthy players became trade-eligible on December 15, it’s merely a technicality for those ones who are untouchable.

Today then, we’re focusing on a dozen newly trade-eligible players who are noteworthy not because of their star power but because they’re viable candidates to be moved in advance of this season’s February 6 trade deadline.

Approximately 120 players became trade-eligible on Sunday, so the list below only makes up about one-tenth of that group. You can check out the full list here.

Here are 12 notable players who are now eligible to be traded:

  1. D’Angelo Russell, G (Warriors): Viewed as a trade candidate since the moment he agreed to join the Warriors due to his questionable long-term fit in Golden State, Russell may not be dealt this season. But it seems like it’ll just a matter of time before the Dubs seriously consider the possibility.
  2. Alec Burks, G (Warriors): A minimum-salary player like Burks or big man Willie Cauley-Stein is a more realistic short-term trade candidate for the Warriors. Moving a minimum-salary veteran without taking a player back would give the team a little added breathing room below its restrictive hard cap.
  3. Marcus Morris, F (Knicks): Morris has insisted he wants to stick with the Knicks rather than being traded, but his one-year contract and impressive on-court production will make him an intriguing trade chip. He may represent New York’s best – or only – chance to net a first-round pick in a deal.
  4. Taj Gibson, F/C (Knicks): While Morris is the Knicks’ best trade candidate, he’s hardly the only one. Gibson’s contract, which only has a small partial guarantee for next season, is fairly trade-friendly, and he’d be a fit with just about any contender.
  5. Wayne Ellington, G (Knicks): OK, you get it — a lot of Knicks could be on the trade block this winter. Besides the three we’ve already listed, Bobby Portis, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton, and Reggie Bullock became trade-eligible on Sunday too, and none should be considered untouchable.
  6. Thaddeus Young, F (Bulls): Things haven’t gone well for the Bulls or for Young this season. There’s time to turn it around, but if that doesn’t happen, Young’s camp could encourage the Bulls to trade the veteran forward to a team willing to give him a larger role.
  7. J.J. Redick, G (Pelicans): Redick is the sort of rotation player who can be plugged into any roster and be effective, so the Pelicans should expect to receive inquiries. The veteran sharpshooter still believes New Orleans can bounce back from its rough start, but if the club gets the right offer, a Redick deal isn’t out of the question.
  8. Jabari Parker, F (Hawks): I made a case last month for why I think Parker might be a logical trade candidate. At the very least, he’d be way easier for the Hawks to move than the three big expiring contracts belonging to Chandler Parsons, Allen Crabbe, and Evan Turner.
  9. DeMarcus Cousins, C (Lakers): Cousins likely won’t play this season, but that doesn’t mean the Lakers can’t use him as a salary-matching piece in a trade. Three Lakers players have de facto no-trade clauses, and most of the rest of the roster earns less than Cousins, making him one of the club’s most obvious trade chips by default.
  10. Mike Muscala, F/C (Thunder): Like the Warriors, the Thunder could benefit financially from trading a minimum-salary veteran, then replacing him with a new player on a smaller, prorated minimum deal. Making that move with the struggling Muscala would allow Oklahoma City to sneak below the tax.
  11. Stanley Johnson, F (Raptors): If the Raptors pursue a smaller-scale trade, Johnson looks like one of the team’s most expendable pieces. He’s earning $3.6MM, but has barely played at all in his first season in Toronto.
  12. Dewayne Dedmon, C (Kings): Dedmon is another free agent signing that hasn’t exactly worked out as his new team planned, as Richaun Holmes has usurped him as Sacramento’s starting center. The Kings will likely be patient with Dedmon, their second-highest-paid player, but if a favorable change-of-scenery opportunity arises, they’ll surely consider it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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