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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Southwest Division

November 14th, 2019 at 3:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

Although the Spurs don’t typically make splashy in-season trades, the Southwest could still end up being one of the NBA’s busiest divisions in 2019/20 in terms of trade activity. The Rockets and Mavericks are in position to buyers, while the Pelicans and Grizzlies may seek out deals that position them to better build around the top two picks from the 2019 draft.

Let’s focus on three players out of the Southwest who could emerge as trade candidates before this season’s deadline…

Andre Iguodala, G/F
Memphis Grizzlies
$17.19MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Iguodala is perhaps the most obvious trade candidate in the NBA at the moment. The Grizzlies are so resigned to the fact that the veteran wing has no future in Memphis that they’re not even requiring him to be with the team, having reached an agreement in September allowing him not to report to camp.

While the Grizzlies are holding out hope that a favorable trade emerges for Iguodala, many of his primary suitors don’t have much to offer to match his $17MM+ salary and may rather wait to see if he’s bought out. A recent survey of executives conducted by David Aldridge of The Athletic revealed that most people around the league expect Iguodala to end up with the Lakers, but they have no realistic path to a trade, given the construction of their roster.

It makes sense for the Grizzlies to be patient with this process. Iguodala would fit in well on just about every NBA roster, and more buyers could emerge by January or February, increasing Memphis’ leverage.

Courtney Lee, SG
Dallas Mavericks
$12.76MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Lee had one of his best seasons as a pro in 2017/18, averaging 12.0 PPG on .454/.406/.919 shooting, but he has been slowed by injuries since then and isn’t currently a fixture in the Mavericks‘ rotation.

Although he doesn’t have positive value, Lee’s expiring contract would be Dallas’ best salary-matching piece if the club goes out in search of an upgrade. The team is well below the tax line, so taking on some extra money in a deal involving Lee wouldn’t be an issue.

By way of example, the Mavs could offer Lee and another asset to the Grizzlies for Iguodala (and perhaps already have). Although there’s a gap between their cap charges, the NBA’s trade rules would allow Dallas to take back up to $17.76MM in exchange for Lee alone.

Nene, C
Houston Rockets
$10MM cap hit; $10MM non-guaranteed cap hit for 2020/21

When the Rockets gave Nene an incentive-heavy contract that was only fully guaranteed for $2.56MM (his minimum salary), the idea was to create a trade chip like the one the Mavericks have with Lee. Because the deal featured $7.44MM in incentives deemed “likely,” Nene’s cap hit is technically $10MM, but as long as he doesn’t play more than nine games, he ultimately won’t count for more than $2.56MM against his team’s cap.

Unfortunately for Daryl Morey and the Rockets’ front office, that plan backfired, as the NBA ruled that only the guaranteed portion of Nene’s contract can be counted for salary-matching purposes. That significantly limits his trade value.

Still, it’s not as if Nene now has no value as a trade chip. On his own, he could bring back a player earning up to about $4.59MM. Paired with a little-used player like Isaiah Hartenstein, the Rockets could acquire a player earning up to approximately $7.07MM. That could still come in handy when the deadline rolls around.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Could Siakam Repeat As Most Improved Player?

November 14th, 2019 at 12:37pm CST by Luke Adams

Raptors forward Pascal Siakam was the runaway winner of the NBA’s 2018/19 Most Improved Player award, capturing 86 of 100 possible first-place votes, and he was certainly deserving of the honor. Siakam was one of the key contributors for the eventual NBA champions, guarding all five positions and increasing his numbers across the board – including a PPG bump from 7.3 to 16.9 – while scoring even more efficiently than he had before.

So far this season though, Siakam may have taken an even more significant step forward, as John Hollinger of The Athletic writes. After increasing his scoring output by 9.6 points per game a year ago, Siakam has tacked on 10.3 more PPG this season, boosting that number to 27.2 PPG overall. His usage rate has jumped from 20.8 to 30.5, and while his overall field goal percentage has dipped a little, he’s become a more dangerous threat from outside, knocking down 2.3 threes per game at a 37.3% rate (up from 1.0 and 36.9%).

As Hollinger outlines, Siakam has made his latest strides by finding creative new ways to score. He’s a threat in the post, off the dribble, in the pick-and-roll, and from beyond the arc.

Last season, one of Siakam’s Achilles heels was his inability to make above-the-break threes. As ESPN’s Zach Lowe observes (via Twitter), the 25-year-old only attempted 29% of his three-pointers from above the break in 2018/19, making just 27% on those attempts. This year, 75% of his threes are coming from that area, and he has converted 42% of them.

Siakam isn’t Kawhi Leonard – even if his early-season numbers are remarkably similar to Kawhi’s full-season 2018/19 averages – but he has quickly become the Raptors’ new go-to offensive play-maker in Leonard’s absence this season. While his numbers through 11 games may not be sustainable, he looks like an All-Star lock, and if he can maintain anything close to this pace, he figures to be in the All-NBA conversation too. However, the most intriguing Siakam subplot this season may be whether he can win his second consecutive Most Improved Player award.

As Hollinger writes, no one has come close to being named MIP for two straight seasons. Of the last 10 winners, more than half have regressed a year after winning the award, and even the ones that have continued to improve have only taken modest steps forward. But the early returns on Siakam this season suggest he’ll have a case.

There were certainly be other good MIP candidates this season. Brandon Ingram, Luke Kennard, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are a few of the early contenders, though some voters shy away from second-year players, which could hurt Doncic, Young, and SGA. For that matter, some voters are reluctant to pick repeat award winners in general, but the novelty of doing so for an award like MIP that never has repeat winners might actually work in Siakam’s favor.

What do you think? Is it realistic to expect Siakam to be in the Most Improved Player conversation for a second consecutive year? Could he actually win the award again? If you’re not bullish on his chances, which candidate(s) do you like so far?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Community Shootaround: Is Isaiah Thomas “Back”?

November 13th, 2019 at 7:38pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

As a short person, this author has enjoyed observing Isaiah Thomas‘s resurgence on the Wizards. Seeing IT survive and thrive in the NBA gives all of us undersized ballers hope. Thomas has been serviceable as a starter on one of the worst teams in the NBA. Can it last? And will he be able to collect some scratch for his efforts in the coming offseason?

After being drafted by the Kings with the 60th pick in 2011, Thomas put up impressive numbers for several bottom-feeding Sacramento teams. Thomas next inked a four-year, $27MM contract with the Suns in a 2014 sign-and-trade. The Suns, in the great point guard trade deadline bonanza of 2015, shipped Thomas to the Celtics. By his second full season in Boston, the 5’9″ point guard was the leader of the East’s 53-win No. 1 seed. He averaged 28.9 points, 5.9 assists and 2.7 boards. Then it all came crumbling down when a nagging hip injury knocked Thomas out of the playoffs. Boston GM Danny Ainge traded Thomas to the Cavaliers in a package for Kyrie Irving, and Thomas has never been the same.

Last season, Thomas disappointed on the 54-win Nuggets. He played just 12 games before coach Mike Malone excised him from the rotation, averaging 8.1 points per night at a paltry 34.3% field goal clip. He also shot just 27.9% from long range on 3.6 attempts. Even in those 12 games, Thomas was always a bench player, averaging only 15.1 minutes per contest.

This season, on a Wizards squad without John Wall for most or all of the season, Thomas has managed to scrap his way back into the starting five. As of this writing, he is averaging 13.2 points per game and 6.2 assists in just 22.7 minutes per contest. Thomas is also shooting a decent 42.9% from the floor and 36.4% from three-point range on 5.5 attempts per game.

So now we open this question up to the Hoops Rumors community. Is Isaiah truly “back?” First, it’s imperative to define what we mean by “back.” Thomas may never scale the heights of being an All-Star, let alone a legitimate MVP candidate. He finished fifth in 2017 MVP voting. But Thomas hasn’t even been able to sniff steady minutes on an NBA roster since the 2017/18 season, where he bounced between the Cavaliers and the Lakers.

After two straight years on veteran’s minimum contracts, will Thomas stay healthy long enough to parlay his play this season into a multi-year deal in 2020? That’s how I would quantify him being “back.” I think the answer to that question, by the way, is “Yes.” If Derrick Rose can extract a $15MM, two-year deal from the Pistons in 2019, Thomas should do something similar in 2020.

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

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Poll: Will Dion Waiters Play For Heat This Season?

November 12th, 2019 at 9:58am CST by Luke Adams

Dion Waiters will serve the second game of his 10-game suspension on Tuesday night as the Heat host the Pistons, and the team wasn’t saying much about his situation on Monday, as Khobi Price of The South Florida Sun Sentinel details. With Waiters ineligible to return until December 1, we’ll have to wait and see what the next step is for the franchise and the 27-year-old guard, who has yet to play a single minute this season.

Assuming Miami isn’t hit hard by the injury bug during the rest of November, it’s probably safe to assume the club’s rotation will be relatively set by the end of the month, meaning there won’t be minutes waiting for Waiters when his suspension ends, writes Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press. If that’s the case, it will be interesting to see how Waiters responds, since his one-game suspension to open the season was related to expressing displeasure with his role.

According to Shams Charania of Stadium (video link), the Heat have made it clear to Waiters that they want him to earn a role, but he’ll have to get back in the team’s good graces before that happens. Even then, there’s no guarantee the former No. 4 overall pick would play regular minutes for Miami.

If there’s no path to a rotation spot for Waiters, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Heat could pay him to stay home. In fact, Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel estimates there’s a 50-50 chance that it plays out that way, suggesting that the over/under for Waiters appearances this season might have to be set at zero.

Even if Waiters remains away from the Heat though, there’s “zero chance” the team will release him at this point, Winderman writes in a separate Sun Sentinel article. Waiters still has two years remaining on his contract, with a guaranteed $12.65MM cap hit for the 2020/21 season, so unless he agrees to give up some of his guaranteed salary in a buyout agreement – which he has no incentive to do – it makes more sense to keep him around. In theory, he could be used as a salary-matching chip in a trade at some point.

For now though, the plan is ostensibly for Waiters to serve his time, rejoin the Heat, and work to earn minutes. In today’s poll, we want to know if that’s how you think this saga plays out. Will Waiters play another game for the Heat or not?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Community Shootaround: Which Rookie Will Have The Best Career?

November 10th, 2019 at 3:21pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Pelicans rookie and consensus 2019 No. 1 draft pick Zion Williamson is most likely out of commission through at least November as he recovers from his torn right meniscus. There has been bubbling chatter about whether or not the 6’6″, 285-pound Williamson’s fitness (or relative lack thereof) may be a longer-term problem for New Orleans.

Pelicans sources told The Athletic’s Shams Charania that the team was unconcerned about Williamson’s frame having an adverse impact on his health moving forward. SB Nation writer Ricky O’Donnell observed that Williamson has suffered knee injuries in high school, college, Summer League, and now the NBA proper.

Though it felt obvious in the moment that Williamson would have the best NBA career among this year’s impressive rookie class, these recurrent knee issues have given this writer pause in determining just which 2019 rookie will be the best pro. Yes, Williamson’s ceiling feels astronomical. But his floor is spooky.

Meanwhile, No.2 pick Ja Morant has been impressive for the Grizzlies, averaging 18.9 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game. The point guard’s shooting numbers have been stellar, too: 49.2% from the field, 46.2% from three-point range (albeit on a somewhat-low 1.6 attempts), and 75% from the charity stripe.

Warriors rookie power forward Eric Paschall, the 41st pick out of Villanova, has been posting excellent numbers himself. His 79 points scored across his first three games were the most clocked by an NBA player in his first three starts since Jeremy Lin logged 89 with the Knicks in 2012.

Heat guards Kendrick Nunn (who went undrafted in 2018 but made his NBA debut this season) and Tyler Herro (the 13th pick) have scored in bunches, propelling the Jimmy Butler-led squad near the top of the East.

Power forward P.J. Washington, picked 12th by the Hornets, has outperformed his draft standing thus far. He is shooting 45.2% from deep on 3.4 three-point attempts. Williamson’s former Duke running mate, Knicks rookie wing R.J. Barrett, has been scoring in bunches too.

Other top picks include Cavaliers guard Darius Garland, Hawks forward DeAndre Hunter, Timberwolves guard Jarrett Culver, and Wizards forward Rui Hachimura.

Who among this starry 2019 rookie class do you think will have the best NBA career overall? Will it be someone beyond the players we’ve mentioned? A late-blooming second-round gem, perhaps (a la Nikola Jokic in 2014)?

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 11/2/19 – 11/9/19

November 9th, 2019 at 5:02pm CST by Arthur Hill

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Central Division

November 8th, 2019 at 6:24pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Central Division:

Andre Drummond, Pistons, 26, C (Up) – Signed to a five-year, $127.2MM deal in 2016
With Blake Griffin sidelined, Drummond has delivered a number of energetic and highly productive performances. He was averaging 21.9 points, an NBA-high 18.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 blocks and 1.7 steals heading into Friday’s game against Indiana. He’s also displaying greater maturity and reducing the unnecessary fouls, allowing him to stay on the court for longer stretches. In a very weak free agent market, Drummond could be the top prize unless Anthony Davis opts out. Drummond is expected to opt out of the final $28.8MM on his deal.

Denzel Valentine, Bulls, 25, SF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $9.9MM deal in 2016
Valentine established himself as a rotation player during his second year in the league, appearing in 77 games (37 starts) while averaging 10.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists with an above-average 3-point percentage (38.6). A major ankle injury ended Valentine’s third season before it began. He has struggled thus far to reestablish himself and got sent to the G League this weekend to get some game action. The Bulls can make him a restricted free agent next summer by extending a $4.MM qualifying offer. He’s unlikely to get that unless he reemerges as a second unit fixture.

Justin Holiday, Pacers, 30, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $4.77MM deal in 2019
Holiday is one of those glue guys whose contributions go well beyond the stat sheet. He provides guidance to the team’s younger players and has been the team’s top wing defender in the early going. He can guard multiple positions, which has helped him earned steady minutes (22.1 per game). Holiday hasn’t shot it well (32.7) and he’ll likely lose playing time once Victor Oladipo finally returns from his quad injury. But Holiday might get another contract similar to the one Indiana handed him over the summer if he continues to be a steadying presence.

Sterling Brown, Bucks, 24, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $3.8MM deal in 2017
The 2017 second-round pick averaged 17.8 minutes in 58 games during his second season in the league. Brown has been buried on the bench for the most part this season, racking up several DNP-Coach’s Decisions. His only extended action was a 21-minute outing in a 32-point romp over Orlando at the beginning of the month. Brown’s qualifying offer is just $2MM, so it wouldn’t cost the Bucks much to make him a restricted free agent. However, there’s no real clear path to steady playing time this season unless injuries strike.

John Henson, Cavaliers, 28, PF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $48MM deal in 2016
Henson’s biggest problem is one that always makes buyers beware — he can’t stay on the court. Henson’s 2018-19 season was essentially a washout due to a wrist injury. The Cavs, who acquired him last December after Henson underwent surgery, were hoping he could earn a spot in John Beilein’s rotation this fall. Instead, he suffered groin and ankle injuries during the preseason. When he finally appeared in a regular-season game, he strained his right hamstring, which is expected to cost him 2-4 weeks. Henson will be an unrestricted free agent next summer and will have to settle for a major pay cut to stay in the league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Cavaliers’ Backcourt

November 8th, 2019 at 2:24pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Cavaliers selected Darius Garland with the No. 5 overall pick in this year’s draft despite selecting a point guard the year prior in Collin Sexton. Cleveland insisted that the choice was not about a lack of faith in Sexton but rather a belief that the two point guards can play together and the team is testing its hypothesis early this season, as I wrote for NBAMath.

Sexton has spent nearly three-quarters of his 217 minutes next to Garland, while Garland has seen just 32 minutes without Sexton. The results haven’t been great, as the pair has a net rating of -10.2 and the team has pulled just two wins so far this season.

Seven games is not a large enough sample size to make long-term conclusions, but the two former top-10 picks seem like an awkward fit and the Cavs selected Sexton not knowing exactly what their long-term future would look like as they held out hope for LeBron James re-signing with the franchise.

For Cleveland, this season is about figuring out the fit between the two young guards, and the team will continue to roll out the pair with the hopes that they can click.

Do you believe the Cavaliers’ guards can coexist, or will they eventually need to trade one of the two? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!

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Poll: Will The Magic Make The Playoffs?

November 8th, 2019 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

The Magic were one of the NBA’s best teams during the last two months of the 2018/19 regular season, finishing the year on a 23-9 run and earning the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference. However, that second-half success hasn’t carried over to the 2019/20 season so far.

Through eight games, the Magic are just 2-6, with their only two wins coming at home against Eastern lottery teams Cleveland and New York.

The defense that keyed the Magic’s late-season run in the spring is still the team’s strength. Orlando’s 101.0 defensive rating ranks fifth in the NBA, and Jonathan Isaac is emerging as one of the league’s most impactful players on that side of the ball — in the early going, he’s averaging 1.6 steals per game to go along with a league-high 3.0 blocks per game.

However, the Magic’s offense has been dismal this season, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe writes. Orlando’s 96.6 offensive rating is easily the worst in the NBA, well behind the 100.1 mark posted by the 29th-ranked Knicks.

While Lowe acknowledges that the team’s 27% conversion rate on three-point shots figures to improve, he points to several other red flags, such as a lack of corner threes and free throw attempts. As Lowe notes, the Magic have too many power forwards and not enough shooters or play-makers, especially with D.J. Augustin regressing after a career year and Markelle Fultz still not a reliable shot-maker.

The Magic could experiment with some different lineups and hope that their excellent defense helps create a few more fast-break opportunities and easy baskets. But barring a trade, there doesn’t appear to be a quick fix for their offense. And if that’s the case, the club’s ceiling will be limited.

Still, being dominant on one side of the ball could be enough to earn a playoff spot in the East, where average teams like the Hornets (4-4) and Pistons (4-5) currently rank in the top eight. The Magic and the 3-4 Nets are among last year’s playoff teams looking to make their way back into that postseason mix.

What do you think? Will the Magic make the postseason again in 2019/20, or will they be unable to repeat even last year’s modest success?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

November 8th, 2019 at 10:20am CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

  • All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
  • Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
  • Notifications. For any team or player, you can set up push notifications to ensure you always get breaking news instantly. Notifications can also be set up at the sport level.
  • Commenting. You can read and contribute comments on the app seamlessly.
  • Customer service. If you find a bug, we’ll fix it. If you have a feature request, we’ll consider it. The app is continually evolving and improving.
  • Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!
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