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Community Shootaround: Potential NBA Schedule Changes

November 23rd, 2019 at 2:06pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

This morning, ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Adrian Wojnarowski reported that serious discussions were transpiring between the NBA, the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) and their television partners about making dramatic changes to the NBA season.

Those modifications apparently include: a reduced regular season schedule (which seems savvy), a postseason play-in tournament for lower seeds (which sounds fun), a conference finalist reseeding (all 16 playoff teams should be reseeded, in this writer’s opinion), and a midseason playoff tournament (which feels pointless and desperate).

One of the big elements on the table is shortening the regular season game count from 82 to 78. Since the 1968/69 NBA season, the 82-game regular season has been the norm.

The league played as few as 60 or 61 games (it varied amongst the 11 teams) in its inaugural 1946/47 season. The game count gradually grew, reaching 72 by the 1953/54 season, the end of the George Mikan‘s Minnesota Lakers dynasty. In the 1959/60 season (year three of the Bill Russell-era Celtics reign), the tally expanded to 75 games. The next season, that number hit 79, before stabilizing at 80 from 1961/62-1966/67. For one lone season (1967/68), the NBA had an 81-game regular season before making the pivot to its current 82-game schedule when it expanded to 12 teams.

Under the leadership of commissioner Adam Silver, the NBA has already taken steps to reduce the grind of the 82-game schedule. It shrank teams’ preseason commitments. It has taken pains to decrease back-to-back games. The NBA experimented with shortening game lengths from 48 minutes to 44 minutes.

Knowing what we know now about the “load management” era, where certain superstars opt to avoid playing in at least one game of a back-to-back tilt and teams liberally rest healthy players in advance of the playoffs, is reducing the full game tally the right move?

Business Insider’s Cork Gaines has noted that Bill Simmons of The Ringer has long advocated for a schedule reduction, arguing that modern NBA players actively try harder during the regular season than their predecessors in the 1980s and 1990s. Simmons also has been a proponent of a play-in tournament in the past.

How many games should the NBA season last? The Ringer’s Rodger Sherman proposed a radical shortening, to 58 games (so that every team players every other team exactly twice), after watching injuries befall several core Warriors in the 2019 NBA Finals.

This writer votes for reverting back to the 72-game model, completely excising the preseason, and eliminating back-to-back games. The latter two items were not discussed in the Lowe-Wojnarowski report this morning, but I’m hoping they are given fair shrift during these upcoming negotiations.

If the season is condensed much beyond 72 games, the opportunity exists for this era’s players to make unfair statistical gains on prior player generations. A midseason tournament seems like a method to placate middling franchises with meaningless award hardware. Essentially, it would only yield the equivalent of a “Conference Finalist” banner for its “winning” team.

What do you think? How many games should the NBA season last? Would you eliminate back-to-backs and/or the preseason? Would you be interested in watching a midseason tournament?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Northwest Division

November 22nd, 2019 at 8:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Northwest Division:

Danilo Gallinari, Thunder, 31, SF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $64.7MM deal in 2017
Gallinari’s biggest issue has been staying out of the trainer’s room. His 68 regular-season appearances with the Clippers last season was his most since the 2012/13 season. But when he’s healthy, he can fill it up. He’s averaging 19.1 PPG and 5.1 RPG while shooting 41.3 percent from deep. When he gets to the free throw line, he’s money (at least 90 percent since 2016/17). At 31, Gallinari still has a few more good years left and will get a hefty long-term offer next summer.

Mason Plumlee, Nuggets, 29, C (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $41MM deal in 2017
Plumlee doesn’t stretch defenses like a majority of big men these days but he does enough to stay on the court. He’s the team’s fourth-leading rebounder despite averaging 16.6 MPG. He’s also adept at finding teammates (2.3 APG). Plumlee’s role figures to diminish if 2018 first-round Michael Porter Jr. starts to make a bigger impact but for now, Plumlee has a steady second-unit role on a contender. However, his annual salary will take a big dip next summer.

Jordan Bell, Timberwolves, 24, PF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $1.62MM deal in 2019
The Timberwolves can make Bell a restricted free agent by extending a $2.0MM qualifying offer in June. Thus far, Bell hasn’t done anything to make them want to keep the former Warriors big man around for another season. He’s been glued to the bench through the first month of this season, playing a total of eight minutes since November 4th. Noah Vonleh and Gorgui Dieng are ahead of him in the rotation off the bench, so Bell’s role won’t expand unless injuries strike.

Kent Bazemore, Trail Blazers, 30, SG (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $70MM deal in 2016
Bazemore was acquired from the Hawks in exchange for another veteran swingman, Evan Turner. The trade has been a lose-lose situation for both teams. Neither has made an impact on their current teams. Bazemore is averaging single digits for the first time since the 2014/15 season despite steady playing time (23.6 MPG). He’s shooting 34.6 percent from the field and his PER is 8.7. That’s not exactly the way Bazemore wanted his walk year to unfold. He’ll be settling for a sizable pay cut next summer.

Jeff Green, Jazz, 33, PF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2.56MM deal in 2019
Green is the quintessential journeyman, seemingly popping up on a different team every season. Normally, he puts up solid numbers wherever he lands. That hasn’t the case through the first 14 games this season. Green has been in a shooting slump, making just 33 percent of his attempts. He shot over 47 percent for Cleveland and Washington the past two seasons, so a breakout might be imminent. If not, Green’s rotation spot could be in jeopardy when Ed Davis‘ fractured leg heals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Atlantic Division

November 21st, 2019 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

Typically, each installment in our Trade Candidate series focuses on a single division and then identifies players from three separate teams as possible trade candidates. However, a number of Atlantic clubs don’t yet have any obvious candidates to be dealt, so today we’re focusing on a single Atlantic roster that does feature plenty of potential trade targets: New York’s.

Here are three Knicks players who could emerge as trade candidates prior to February’s deadline:

Wayne Ellington, SG
New York Knicks
$8MM cap hit; $1MM partial guarantee on $8MM cap hit in 2020/21

A career 37.8% three-point shooter, Ellington was a full-time starter for the Pistons down the stretch last season and averaged 32.8 minutes per game in the playoffs. This season, he’s playing just 13.4 MPG for the lottery-bound Knicks and has received a handful of DNPs.

The Knicks have a crowded rotation, and it’s hard to argue that they shouldn’t be prioritizing young players like RJ Barrett, Damyean Dotson, and Allonzo Trier more than Ellington, especially since the veteran sharpshooter has slumped to start the season. But Ellington, who will turn 32 next Friday, should get hot at some point, and will have more value to a playoff team than he will as a bench player in New York.

Ellington’s contract is team-friendly — a trade partner would only have to send out about $4.52MM in outgoing salary to match his $8MM cap hit, and he could easily be waived in the offseason with a minimal impact on a club’s 2020/21 cap if he doesn’t work out.

Reggie Bullock, SG
New York Knicks
$4MM cap hit; $1MM partial guarantee on $4.2MM cap hit in 2020/21

If the Knicks can’t find regular minutes for Ellington, it seems unlikely that they’ll be there for Bullock once he eventually gets healthy. Bullock provides a similar skill set, including a 39.2% career three-point mark, and has a similar contract structure, at half the price, which should make him an appealing target for a contender in need of shooting.

However, the big question surrounding Bullock is his health. The surgery he underwent in July for a cervical disc herniation is no joke, and it’s unclear when he might be able to get back on the court. Last we heard, he’ll be re-evaluated by the Knicks in early December.

If Bullock can get healthy and gets enough playing time before February 6 to rebuild his value, the Knicks will have to determine whether to shop him or to potentially look toward keeping him for a second year at an affordable price.

Taj Gibson, F/C
New York Knicks
$9MM cap hit; $1MM partial guarantee on $9.45MM cap hit in 2020/21

Outside of Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, and maybe one or two other players, the Knicks will probably be willing to discuss just about anyone as the trade deadline nears.

Still, Gibson is among the club’s most logical trade candidates because he’s the sort of veteran whom a playoff team can slot into its rotation without having to worry about getting him a ton of touches or having him adjust to new a scheme. The 34-year-old is in his 11th NBA season and is playing for his fourth team, so he’ll be a quick learner. And you’d be acquiring him for his defense, rebounding, and toughness — not his offense.

Unfortunately, at $9MM, Gibson isn’t really a bargain, so it may be difficult for the Knicks to extract much of value for him. If they’re willing to take on some guaranteed 2020/21 money, that would open up their options.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Community Shootaround: Western Conference Playoff Picture

November 21st, 2019 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Entering the 2019/20 season, eight teams were widely considered the frontrunners to claim the playoff spots in the Western Conference. Through the season’s first month, five of those clubs have delivered on their promise — the Lakers, Clippers, Rockets, Nuggets, and Jazz look like pretty safe bets to make the postseason.

However, the other three clubs from that group have won just 13 games combined so far, and will have to dig themselves out of an early-season hole if they hope to make the playoffs.

With Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson out long-term due to injuries, and Draymond Green, D’Angelo Russell, and Kevon Looney also battling health issues, the Warriors‘ postseason chances appear all but dead. They have the worst record in the conference so far at 3-13, and there’s little reason to expect them to improve anytime soon.

The Trail Blazers and especially the Spurs haven’t been bitten by the injury bug to the same extent that Golden State has, but both clubs are off to disappointing starts too, with matching 5-10 records to date.

With those three presumed playoff teams near the bottom of the standings so far, the Mavericks (9-5), Suns (7-6), and Timberwolves (8-7) currently fill out the West’s top eight, and the Kings (6-7) are just one game out of the postseason picture. The Thunder, Grizzlies, and Pelicans (all 5-9) aren’t entirely out of the mix yet either.

It’s still very early, so there’s time for teams like Portland and San Antonio to bounce back and make a run. And it remains to be seen if clubs like Phoenix and Minnesota can sustain their early success. But it suddenly looks like there could be a pretty wide-open race for the last couple playoff seeds in the West — or for the last three spots, if you’re not fully in on Luka Doncic and the Mavs, or one of the conference’s other top teams.

What do you think? After what you’ve seen over the last month, are you ready to make any predictions on which upstarts might make the playoffs in the West? Are the Mavs for real? How about the Suns and Timberwolves? Of the Blazers and Spurs, which club has the better chance to rebound?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

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Early Check-In On Protected 2020 First-Round Picks

November 21st, 2019 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

We’re about a month into the NBA’s 2019/20 regular season, and no team has played more than 16 games. Still, based on what we’ve seen so far, we’re starting to get a sense of which teams will be competitive and which teams probably won’t.

As a picture begins to form of which teams will be vying for top seeds in each conference and which might be battling for lottery odds, it’s worth checking in on the traded first-round picks for 2020. Of next year’s 30 first-round selections, 10 have been traded, and all 10 have some form of protection on them, meaning the ’19/20 standings will dictate whether or not those first-rounders actually change hands.

Here’s an early look at which of those picks are safe bets to move, which ones will likely be kept, and which ones are still up in the air:

Likely to change hands:

  • Bucks acquiring Pacers‘ pick (top-14 protected)
  • Celtics acquiring Bucks‘ pick (top-7 protected)
  • Nets acquiring Sixers‘ pick (top-14 protected)
  • Thunder acquiring Nuggets‘ pick (top-10 protected)

The Bucks (11-3) and Nuggets (10-3) are currently competing for the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences. If that continues, the Celtics and Thunder can count on receiving picks in the late-20s.

Meanwhile, the Pacers (8-6) and Sixers (9-5) have been a little shakier since opening the season, but there’s little doubt that they’ll be playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. They’ll send their respective first-rounders to the Bucks and Nets, who will be hoping those picks land in the teens or at least the early-20s.

Unlikely to change hands:

  • Grizzlies acquiring Jazz‘ pick (1-7, 15-30 protected)
  • Nets acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-20 protected)
  • Sixers acquiring Thunder‘s pick (top-20 protected)

The protections on the Utah first-rounder included in the Mike Conley trade are meant to ensure that the Grizzlies don’t receive too high or too low a first-round pick. Assuming the Jazz (9-5) make the playoffs, as expected, they’d retain their 2020 pick and would owe Memphis their 2021 selection with the same protections.

The Warriors (3-13) and Thunder (5-9) picks are a little more interesting, since they won’t simply roll over to 2021 if and when they’re retained. If Golden State keeps its 2020 pick, the team will only owe Brooklyn its 2025 second-rounder. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, would owe Philadelphia its 2022 and 2023 second-round picks if its 2020 first-rounder falls into its protected range.

Still up in the air:

  • Celtics acquiring Grizzlies‘ pick (top-6 protected)
  • Hawks acquiring Nets‘ pick (top-14 protected)
  • Pelicans acquiring Cavaliers‘ pick (top-10 protected)

The Grizzlies have been frisky so far, but they’re just 5-9 and will likely finish among the West’s worst teams. Whether or not they hang onto their 2020 first-rounder may come down to lottery luck. If it falls in the top six and Memphis keeps it, Boston would be in line to acquire the Grizzlies’ unprotected 2021 first-round selection.

The Hawks will need the Nets to make the postseason to receive their first-rounder in 2020. That’s not a lock, but it still seems likely — despite a modest 6-8 record, Brooklyn holds the No. 7 seed in the East. If the Nets miss the playoffs and keep their first-round pick in 2020, they’ll owe a lottery-protected 2021 first-rounder to Atlanta.

Finally, it may just be a matter of time before we can move the Cavaliers’ first-rounder into the “unlikely to change hands” group. The team is putting in a good effort under new head coach John Beilein, but is just 4-10 so far. Unless things improve, the Cavaliers’ pick will remain in the top 10 and they’ll keep it, instead sending their 2021 and 2022 second-rounders to New Orleans.

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2020 NBA Free Agent Power Rankings 1.0

November 20th, 2019 at 2:50pm CST by Luke Adams

Always viewed as a weaker class than the 2019 or 2021 groups, the 2020 free agent class has taken a considerable hit in recent months, as many of next year’s most intriguing potential free agents have agreed to contract extensions, taking them off the market for the next several years.

Since the 2019/20 league year began, Draymond Green, Kyle Lowry, and Eric Gordon are among the veterans who have taken themselves out of the 2020 free agent class by signing extensions. Meanwhile, almost every high-ceiling player eligible for restricted free agency in ’20 inked an early rookie scale extension. That group includes Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray, Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown, Buddy Hield, Domantas Sabonis, and Dejounte Murray, among others.

The upshot? An already-thin 2020 free agent list has thinned out even further. Still, that doesn’t mean there aren’t still several intriguing names among the players who are expected to be available next offseason.

Below, we’ve taken our first crack at ranking the top potential free agents for 2020. While this is our first extended look at 2020’s best free agents, it won’t be our last. Extensions, injuries, breakout years, trades, and poor performances figure to affect these rankings over the course of the 2019/20 season, so we’ll eventually be revisiting the list to make updates and changes.

Our list reflects each player’s current expected value on the 2020 free agent market, rather than how we think they’ll perform on the court for the 2019/20 season. For instance, older players like Marc Gasol and Paul Millsap have strong short-term value, but didn’t crack our top 20 because they’ll be 35 next summer and are unlikely to sign huge, long-term deals. In other words, age and long-term value is important.

Here’s the first installment of our 2020 free agent power rankings:

  1. Anthony Davis, F/C, Lakers (player option): A three-time member of the All-NBA First Team, Davis is certainly worthy of the No. 1 spot on a free agent list, regardless of whether the class is weak or strong. However, he’ll be the only superstar on the market in 2020 and there are no indications at this point that he won’t simply re-sign with the Lakers. If that changes, it’ll make the ’20 offseason a whole lot more interesting.
  2. Brandon Ingram, F, Pelicans (RFA): One of the only top 2016 draft picks who didn’t sign an extension this year, Ingram is showing that he deserved one, with 25.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, and a .522/.444/.741 shooting line through 10 games. As long as he remains healthy, he’ll be a strong candidate for a maximum-salary contract.
  3. Andre Drummond, C, Pistons (player option): Although he has earned a couple All-Star nods over the years, Drummond has generally hovered below the NBA’s top tier of centers. He’s making a case early this season that he deserves a spot in that group, with a career-high 19.6 PPG and a league-leading 17.0 RPG. He has even taken great strides to address his free throw deficiencies, with a career-best 69.4% mark so far in 2019/20.
  4. DeMar DeRozan, G/F, Spurs (player option): DeRozan could end up exercising his $27.7MM player option for 2020/21, but he’s still just 30 years old and this summer might be his best chance for one last big payday. Despite the Spurs’ early struggles and his increasing aversion to three-point shots (he’s 7-for-49 since arriving in San Antonio), DeRozan is scoring as efficiently as ever, with a career-high .518 FG% through 14 games.
  5. Gordon Hayward, F, Celtics (player option): Hayward, who is sidelined with a broken left hand, will need to finish strong this season to hold onto this spot or potentially move higher. But before that injury, he looked like his old self, averaging 18.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.1 APG on .555/.433/.842 shooting in his first eight games. Like DeRozan, Hayward is no lock to turn down his player option, since it’s a big figure ($34.2MM) and few teams will have cap room to pursue him.
  6. Danilo Gallinari, F, Thunder: Gallinari is showing this season that his career year with the Clippers in 2018/19 wasn’t a fluke, as most of his per-minute rates are in the same ballpark as last season. Assuming he can play in at least 65 or 70 games this season and maintain those numbers, he’ll be highly sought after by teams in need of a stretch four.
  7. Fred VanVleet, G, Raptors: After his coming-out party in last season’s NBA Finals, VanVleet has carried that success over to the regular season, with 17.2 PPG and 7.6 APG through 13 games. He’s just 25 years old, and after starting alongside Kyle Lowry earlier this season, he has been proving since Lowry injured his thumb that he can handle the starting point guard job as well.
  8. Mike Conley, G, Jazz (early termination option): Is it an overreaction to Conley’s slow start to place VanVleet ahead of him? Maybe. Still, as Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer points out, Conley’s downward statistical trends, injury history, and diminishing athleticism are causes for concern. If Conley bounces back, he’ll rise on this list. If he doesn’t, he may end up opting into the final year of his current contract and collecting his $34.5MM ETO salary.
  9. Bogdan Bogdanovic, G/F, Kings (RFA): After a slow start to the season, Bogdanovic has been scorching hot over his last six games, with 21.3 PPG, 6.7 APG, and 2.3 SPG, plus a .530/.565/.933 shooting line. He won’t keep up that pace, but the 27-year-old is showing he’s a versatile option who can play multiple positions, score, and set up his teammates.
  10. Otto Porter, F, Bulls (player option): Porter is no superstar, but he has been one of the NBA’s more reliable three-and-D forwards in recent years, with a .427 3PT% since the start of the 2016/17 campaign. Harrison Barnes is a good point of comparison for Porter — last summer, at age 27, Barnes turned down a $25MM+ player option to sign a four-year, $85MM deal. Porter, 27 in June, could look to make a similar move with his $28.5MM player option in 2020 if he has a good year.
  11. Montrezl Harrell, C, Clippers: Viewed at the time as a throw-in in the 2017 blockbuster that sent Chris Paul to Houston, Harrell has evolved into one of the Clippers’ most important players and a legit Sixth Man of the Year candidate. The 25-year-old is establishing new career highs in PPG (18.9), RPG (7.4), and APG (2.6) so far while making at least 60% of his field goal attempts for a fifth straight season.
  12. Serge Ibaka, F/C, Raptors: It may feel as if Ibaka has been around forever, but he’ll only be 30 years old when he reaches unrestricted free agency next offseason. And even though he has been relegated to a bench role in Toronto, his per-minute numbers suggest he’s still capable of being a starter and a solid rim protector.
  13. Evan Fournier, G/F, Magic (player option): Fournier is probably miscast as the primary perimeter scorer for a Magic team that lacks offensive creators. Still, his on/off-court numbers this season reflect his value to Orlando’s offense. The club has a 109.6 offensive rating when he plays, compared to a dismal 91.9 mark when he sits. Fournier will have to pass on a $17.2MM player option to reach the open market, which isn’t necessarily a lock.
  14. Derrick Favors, C, Pelicans: While Favors had long been a solid contributor alongside Rudy Gobert in Utah, the trade that sent him to New Orleans cleared a path for him to show that he’s a starting center in his own right. Injuries have slowed him in the season’s first month, but Favors’ performance in the Pelicans’ upset win over the Clippers last Thursday showed what he can do — he posted his third consecutive double-double that night, with 20 points and 20 rebounds, including nine offensive boards.
  15. Marcus Morris, F, Knicks: There could be several recently-signed Knicks returning to the free agent market next summer, but Morris is the only with a straight one-year contract, making him a lock to reach the open market. He’s showing in the early going this year that he can handle a larger scoring role (18.6 PPG, .455 3PT%), though any contending team that signs him will probably want him to be more of a role player.
  16. Jerami Grant, F, Nuggets (player option): Grant is capable of placing higher on this list, but the 25-year-old has struggled to adjust to his new home in Denver this season, with just 9.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and a .300 3PT%. At his best, Grant is a versatile three-and-D weapon who can play multiple positions. So far though, the Nuggets have a +13.7 net rating when he’s off the court and an ugly -7.2 mark when he plays.
  17. Tristan Thompson, C, Cavaliers: Thompson likely wouldn’t have cracked my top-20 list during the preseason, but he has been impressive in his first 13 games. The 28-year-old big man is doing his usual thing on defense and on the boards (10.1 RPG), and new head coach John Beilein has empowered him to do more on offense too — Thompson is averaging career highs in PPG (14.5), APG (2.2), and FGA (11.6).
  18. Joe Harris, G/F, Nets: The Nets are off to a slow start, but it’s not because of Harris, who has once again been one of the NBA’s most dangerous long-distance shooters. He’s knocking down 43.2% of a career-high 5.7 three-point attempts per game this season.
  19. Dillon Brooks, F, Grizzlies (RFA): An up-and-coming three-and-D wing, Brooks is back in the Grizzlies’ starting lineup this season, and the team has played significantly better when he’s on the floor. Memphis has a -1.3 net rating in Brooks’ 381 minutes; in 296 minutes without him, that rating plummets to -17.0. He’ll also be just 24 years old next July, so a team that likes him should have no qualms about investing long-term.
  20. Malik Beasley, G, Nuggets (RFA): Like his teammate Grant, Beasley would be higher on this list if not for his slow start. I expected Beasley to play a major role for Denver this season, but he has been a victim of an overcrowded rotation as of late, totaling just 19 minutes – with two DNPs – in the team’s last five games. On the plus side, he’s still making 40% of his three-pointers.

Disagree strongly with any of our rankings? Feel like we omitted any players that should be in the top 20? Weigh in below in the comments section to let us know!

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Northwest Division

November 19th, 2019 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

All five Northwest teams entered the 2019/20 season with playoff aspirations, which could create an interesting situation by the trade deadline. Will several of these clubs be competing with one another for the top trade candidates on the market? Or will a couple Northwest teams fall short of their goals and pivot to selling as the deadline nears?

While it’s too early to make any sweeping judgments on the five Northwest squads, all of whom have won between five and nine games, here are three players who could emerge as trade candidates as the season progresses:

Chris Paul, PG
Oklahoma City Thunder
$38.5MM cap hit; increasing guaranteed cap hits through 2021/22

When the Thunder officially acquired Paul from Houston on July 16, many NBA observers assumed his stint in Oklahoma City would be short-lived. Four months later though, Paul is still on OKC’s roster and has played pretty well in the early going, averaging 16.7 PPG, 5.3 APG, and .462/.426/.873 shooting through 13 games.

It’s still possible that Paul will be part of two consecutive trades – no NBA teams have completed a deal since that July 16 blockbuster – but it has become increasingly obvious that his contract will be a major impediment. Even after this season, CP3 still has another two years and $85MM+ left on his deal, and the fact that it extends into the 2021/22 campaign is problematic. Given how star-studded the 2021 free agent class is expected to be, teams are reluctant to surrender significant cap space in that summer.

While the Heat have been linked to Paul most often, I’d be surprised if Miami and Oklahoma City strike a deal. A team without major free agent aspirations for 2021 would be a better fit, so perhaps a club like the Timberwolves ultimately emerges as a more serious suitor.

Jeff Teague, PG
Minnesota Timberwolves
$19MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Speaking of the Timberwolves, they’ve made it clear that they’re seeking a long-term answer at the point guard spot, which doesn’t bode well for Teague’s long-term future in Minnesota.

Another sign Teague’s days with the Timberwolves may be numbered? When Gersson Rosas took over as the club’s president of basketball operations last summer, nine Wolves were eligible for free agency and a 10th had a non-guaranteed contract. None of those 10 players returned. Rosas will be aggressive in shaping the sort of roster he wants in Minnesota, and so far it doesn’t appear as if his vision overlaps much with that of the team’s previous decision-makers.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Teague is a goner, but his $19MM expiring contract would make him an ideal salary-matching piece if Rosas gets aggressive at this season’s trade deadline, since it’d be easier to move than the pricey multiyear contracts belonging to Gorgui Dieng and Andrew Wiggins.

Hassan Whiteside, C
Portland Trail Blazers
$27.1MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

At this point, the Trail Blazers still badly need Whiteside. Jusuf Nurkic remains sidelined for the foreseeable future, Zach Collins figures to miss most of the season with a shoulder injury, and Pau Gasol has yet to make his Portland debut.

However, Whiteside is essentially a temporary placeholder in the middle until Nurkic is able to return. Once Nurkic is healthy, he’ll reclaim his starting spot, relegating Whiteside to a bench role. If Gasol is healthy and Collins is close to returning at that point, there will be even fewer minutes to go around in the frontcourt. And, of course, dissatisfaction with his playing time was what led Whiteside’s stint in Miami to go south.

Whether or not Whiteside ends up on the trade block will hinge in large part on the health of those other three big men. If the Blazers are comfortable with their depth up front, Whiteside’s $27MM+ expiring contract could be a useful trade chip as the club seeks much-needed help at the forward spot. But if Portland is still shorthanded at center when the deadline arrives, moving Whiteside may not be a viable option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Poll: Will James Harden Average 40 PPG?

November 18th, 2019 at 6:59pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

James Harden might make NBA history this season, the kind of history that only one all-time luminary has ever achieved before. James Harden might average at least 40 points a game.

The 30 year-old Rockets guard may scale a height only heretofore reached by the Big Dipper himself, Wilt Chamberlain. Wilt the Stilt averaged 50.4 PPG in 1961/62 for the then-Philadelphia Warriors. He reached a similarly insane 44.8 PPG the next season, after the team had relocated and rebranded itself the San Francisco Warriors. Keep in mind, the three-point line did not exist in the NBA until the 1979/80 season.

Harden is currently averaging an eyeball-popping 39.5 PPG in 2019/20, to go along with 7.8 APG and 5.6 RPG. Yes, it might just be a scorching hot start, just 13 games into this young season. But the reason Harden might really hit the big 4-0 is fairly simple: he actually is not shooting that well yet.

His 39.5 PPG tally is being achieved while he shoots 41.7% from the field and 33.2% from behind the three-point line. He is shooting 14.6 long-range attempts a night. For his career, Harden is connecting on 44.2% of his field goals and 36.4% of his three-point tries. That efficiency was not abetted by the 49 points Harden scored when the Rockets beat the Timberwolves 125-105 on November 15th. He connected on just 16 of a career-high 41 field goal attempts.

Harden was named his conference’s Player of the Week for his phenomenal offensive work last week (he received the same honor the week prior). His highest scoring average prior to this season was a league-leading 36.1 PPG, achieved last year.

Outside of the obvious big personnel change this season, why is Harden scoring so much? As was mentioned in today’s edition of the Brian Windhorst and the Hoop Collective Podcast on ESPN, a pace change has been key. In replacing half-court specialist Chris Paul with speed demon Russell Westbrook, the Rockets ramped up their pace, which has translated into more possessions, and thus more opportunities for Harden to score. Houston has transitioned from the 26th-fastest team in the NBA last season to the third-fastest so far this year.

Harden’s scoring has helped his Rockets keep pace in the chippy Western Conference as they battle through injuries to several core pieces. The team has won its last seven games in a row after starting out the season 3-3. They currently sit second in the West. Houston will try to strengthen its record when the Trail Blazers come to town tonight.

So will The Beard average 40 points a game in a season? Will he at least come close to that lofty number? Weigh in with our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

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Community Shootaround: Next Notable Veteran FA To Sign?

November 18th, 2019 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

With Carmelo Anthony set to join the Trail Blazers, the NBA’s most notable veteran free agent is finally coming off the market. There aren’t many players still looking for work who have a résumé as decorated as Carmelo’s, which includes 10 All-Star appearances and six All-NBA nods, but there are still several intriguing veteran free agents available.

Longtime Sixth Man of the Year contender – and three-time winner – Jamal Crawford recently reiterated that he remains in the market for a new NBA home. Crawford is 39 years old, but he’s not ready to retire, and had a handful of big scoring nights in 2018/19, including a 51-point outburst in the final game of the season.

J.R. Smith is free to sign with any team after being exiled by the Cavaliers last season. The 34-year-old hasn’t played in over a year, but isn’t far removed from knocking down 37.5% of his three-point attempts in 80 games in 2017/18.

Much was made of Joe Johnson‘s NBA comeback this fall after he lit up Ice Cube’s BIG3 league in the summer, but the 38-year-old was beaten out by Christian Wood for the Pistons‘ final roster spot and hasn’t caught on with a new team since then.

Joakim Noah (age 34), Luc Mbah a Moute (33), Corey Brewer (33), and Jodie Meeks (32) are among the other 30-something free agents still out there. Marreese Speights (32), Amir Johnson (32), Dante Cunningham (32), Lance Thomas (31), Michael Beasley (30), and Jonathon Simmons (30) could be had as well. And as our list of current veteran free agents shows, there are several other options available for teams looking for reclamation projects.

What do you think? Are any of these unsigned veterans still capable of having a positive impact on an NBA playoff team this season? Which one(s) will be next to follow in Anthony’s footsteps and catch on with a new club?

Head to the comment section below to share your two cents!

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Hoops Rumors Originals: 11/9/19 – 11/16/19

November 16th, 2019 at 5:00pm CST by Arthur Hill

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

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