Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Which Rookie Will Have The Best Career?

Pelicans rookie and consensus 2019 No. 1 draft pick Zion Williamson is most likely out of commission through at least November as he recovers from his torn right meniscus. There has been bubbling chatter about whether or not the 6’6″, 285-pound Williamson’s fitness (or relative lack thereof) may be a longer-term problem for New Orleans.

Pelicans sources told The Athletic’s Shams Charania that the team was unconcerned about Williamson’s frame having an adverse impact on his health moving forward. SB Nation writer Ricky O’Donnell observed that Williamson has suffered knee injuries in high school, college, Summer League, and now the NBA proper.

Though it felt obvious in the moment that Williamson would have the best NBA career among this year’s impressive rookie class, these recurrent knee issues have given this writer pause in determining just which 2019 rookie will be the best pro. Yes, Williamson’s ceiling feels astronomical. But his floor is spooky.

Meanwhile, No.2 pick Ja Morant has been impressive for the Grizzlies, averaging 18.9 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game. The point guard’s shooting numbers have been stellar, too: 49.2% from the field, 46.2% from three-point range (albeit on a somewhat-low 1.6 attempts), and 75% from the charity stripe.

Warriors rookie power forward Eric Paschall, the 41st pick out of Villanova, has been posting excellent numbers himself. His 79 points scored across his first three games were the most clocked by an NBA player in his first three starts since Jeremy Lin logged 89 with the Knicks in 2012.

Heat guards Kendrick Nunn (who went undrafted in 2018 but made his NBA debut this season) and Tyler Herro (the 13th pick) have scored in bunches, propelling the Jimmy Butler-led squad near the top of the East.

Power forward P.J. Washington, picked 12th by the Hornets, has outperformed his draft standing thus far. He is shooting 45.2% from deep on 3.4 three-point attempts. Williamson’s former Duke running mate, Knicks rookie wing R.J. Barrett, has been scoring in bunches too.

Other top picks include Cavaliers guard Darius Garland, Hawks forward DeAndre Hunter, Timberwolves guard Jarrett Culver, and Wizards forward Rui Hachimura.

Who among this starry 2019 rookie class do you think will have the best NBA career overall? Will it be someone beyond the players we’ve mentioned? A late-blooming second-round gem, perhaps (a la Nikola Jokic in 2014)?

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 11/2/19 – 11/9/19

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Central Division

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Central Division:

Andre Drummond, Pistons, 26, C (Up) – Signed to a five-year, $127.2MM deal in 2016
With Blake Griffin sidelined, Drummond has delivered a number of energetic and highly productive performances. He was averaging 21.9 points, an NBA-high 18.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 blocks and 1.7 steals heading into Friday’s game against Indiana. He’s also displaying greater maturity and reducing the unnecessary fouls, allowing him to stay on the court for longer stretches. In a very weak free agent market, Drummond could be the top prize unless Anthony Davis opts out. Drummond is expected to opt out of the final $28.8MM on his deal.

Denzel Valentine, Bulls, 25, SF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $9.9MM deal in 2016
Valentine established himself as a rotation player during his second year in the league, appearing in 77 games (37 starts) while averaging 10.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists with an above-average 3-point percentage (38.6). A major ankle injury ended Valentine’s third season before it began. He has struggled thus far to reestablish himself and got sent to the G League this weekend to get some game action. The Bulls can make him a restricted free agent next summer by extending a $4.MM qualifying offer. He’s unlikely to get that unless he reemerges as a second unit fixture.

Justin Holiday, Pacers, 30, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $4.77MM deal in 2019
Holiday is one of those glue guys whose contributions go well beyond the stat sheet. He provides guidance to the team’s younger players and has been the team’s top wing defender in the early going. He can guard multiple positions, which has helped him earned steady minutes (22.1 per game). Holiday hasn’t shot it well (32.7) and he’ll likely lose playing time once Victor Oladipo finally returns from his quad injury. But Holiday might get another contract similar to the one Indiana handed him over the summer if he continues to be a steadying presence.

Sterling Brown, Bucks, 24, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $3.8MM deal in 2017
The 2017 second-round pick averaged 17.8 minutes in 58 games during his second season in the league. Brown has been buried on the bench for the most part this season, racking up several DNP-Coach’s Decisions. His only extended action was a 21-minute outing in a 32-point romp over Orlando at the beginning of the month. Brown’s qualifying offer is just $2MM, so it wouldn’t cost the Bucks much to make him a restricted free agent. However, there’s no real clear path to steady playing time this season unless injuries strike.

John Henson, Cavaliers, 28, PF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $48MM deal in 2016
Henson’s biggest problem is one that always makes buyers beware — he can’t stay on the court. Henson’s 2018-19 season was essentially a washout due to a wrist injury. The Cavs, who acquired him last December after Henson underwent surgery, were hoping he could earn a spot in John Beilein’s rotation this fall. Instead, he suffered groin and ankle injuries during the preseason. When he finally appeared in a regular-season game, he strained his right hamstring, which is expected to cost him 2-4 weeks. Henson will be an unrestricted free agent next summer and will have to settle for a major pay cut to stay in the league.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Cavaliers’ Backcourt

The Cavaliers selected Darius Garland with the No. 5 overall pick in this year’s draft despite selecting a point guard the year prior in Collin Sexton. Cleveland insisted that the choice was not about a lack of faith in Sexton but rather a belief that the two point guards can play together and the team is testing its hypothesis early this season, as I wrote for NBAMath.

Sexton has spent nearly three-quarters of his 217 minutes next to Garland, while Garland has seen just 32 minutes without Sexton. The results haven’t been great, as the pair has a net rating of -10.2 and the team has pulled just two wins so far this season.

Seven games is not a large enough sample size to make long-term conclusions, but the two former top-10 picks seem like an awkward fit and the Cavs selected Sexton not knowing exactly what their long-term future would look like as they held out hope for LeBron James re-signing with the franchise.

For Cleveland, this season is about figuring out the fit between the two young guards, and the team will continue to roll out the pair with the hopes that they can click.

Do you believe the Cavaliers’ guards can coexist, or will they eventually need to trade one of the two? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. We look forward to what you have to say!

Poll: Will The Magic Make The Playoffs?

The Magic were one of the NBA’s best teams during the last two months of the 2018/19 regular season, finishing the year on a 23-9 run and earning the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference. However, that second-half success hasn’t carried over to the 2019/20 season so far.

Through eight games, the Magic are just 2-6, with their only two wins coming at home against Eastern lottery teams Cleveland and New York.

The defense that keyed the Magic’s late-season run in the spring is still the team’s strength. Orlando’s 101.0 defensive rating ranks fifth in the NBA, and Jonathan Isaac is emerging as one of the league’s most impactful players on that side of the ball — in the early going, he’s averaging 1.6 steals per game to go along with a league-high 3.0 blocks per game.

However, the Magic’s offense has been dismal this season, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe writes. Orlando’s 96.6 offensive rating is easily the worst in the NBA, well behind the 100.1 mark posted by the 29th-ranked Knicks.

While Lowe acknowledges that the team’s 27% conversion rate on three-point shots figures to improve, he points to several other red flags, such as a lack of corner threes and free throw attempts. As Lowe notes, the Magic have too many power forwards and not enough shooters or play-makers, especially with D.J. Augustin regressing after a career year and Markelle Fultz still not a reliable shot-maker.

The Magic could experiment with some different lineups and hope that their excellent defense helps create a few more fast-break opportunities and easy baskets. But barring a trade, there doesn’t appear to be a quick fix for their offense. And if that’s the case, the club’s ceiling will be limited.

Still, being dominant on one side of the ball could be enough to earn a playoff spot in the East, where average teams like the Hornets (4-4) and Pistons (4-5) currently rank in the top eight. The Magic and the 3-4 Nets are among last year’s playoff teams looking to make their way back into that postseason mix.

What do you think? Will the Magic make the postseason again in 2019/20, or will they be unable to repeat even last year’s modest success?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

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NBA Super-Max Candidates To Watch In 2019/20

The Designated Veteran Extension, as we explain our glossary entry on the subject, is a relatively new addition to the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. It allows players with 7-9 years of experience, who would normally qualify for a maximum starting salary of 30% of the cap, to qualify for a “super-max” contract that starts at 35% of the cap, a level normally reserved players with 10+ years of experience.

A player who has seven or eight years of NBA service with one or two years left on his contract becomes eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension if he meets the required performance criteria and hasn’t been traded since his first four years in the league. A Designated Veteran contract can also be signed by a player who is technically a free agent if he has eight or nine years of service and meets the required criteria.

The performance criteria is as follows (only one of the following must be true):

  • The player was named to an All-NBA team and/or was named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.
  • The player was named the NBA MVP in any of the three most recent seasons.

With those criteria in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on the players who could qualify for a super-max veteran contract with their play this season. Let’s dive in and examine a few of those guys…

Players who already qualify for a super-max contract:

Antetokounmpo met the performance criteria for the super-max when he won last season’s MVP award. Gobert did so by winning the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2018 and then being named to the All-NBA team in 2019 — his second consecutive DPOY award in ’19 merely put an emphatic stamp on his eligibility.

However, neither Antetokounmpo nor Gobert can actually sign a Designated Veteran Extension yet, since they must have seven years of NBA experience under their belts.

Each player is in his seventh season now, but years of experience aren’t officially added until the very end of the league year. In other words, the Bucks and Jazz stars will have to wait until next July to officially sign super-max extensions.

We know the Bucks will put that offer on the table for Giannis, but we’re not sure yet whether he’ll sign it. It also remains to be seen if the Jazz will make the same offer to Gobert. Based on the NBA’s latest cap projection for 2021/22 ($125MM), each player would be eligible for $253.75MM over five years.

Players who could qualify for a super-max contract by meeting the criteria in 2019/20:

Technically, any player who earns an All-NBA spot in 2019/20 and meets the contract criteria can qualify for a super-max, but the two players listed above are probably the only legitimately viable candidates. Thunder center Steven Adams, for instance, would become eligible for a super-max extension by earning an All-NBA spot, but that’s probably not happening.

Even Drummond might be a long shot, but if he can maintain the numbers he has posted in his first nine games (21.9 PPG, 18.6 RPG, 2.2 BPG), he’ll be in the conversation. So far, he’s outplaying last year’s All-NBA First Team center Nikola Jokic, who is off to a slow start.

Embiid, last season’s All-NBA Second Team center, looks like a safer All-NBA bet as long he stays healthy. He earned his spot in 2018/19 despite playing just 64 games, so if he can match or exceed that number this season with similar production, look for him to become super-max eligible.

Drummond is in his eighth NBA season, while Embiid is only in his sixth. So if Drummond were to earn All-NBA honors this season, he’d become eligible to immediately sign a super-max contract. Declining his player option and signing a five-year Designated Veteran contract would put Drummond in line for a deal worth $235.48MM based on the league’s latest cap projection for 2020/21 ($116MM). Though of course, there’s no guarantee the Pistons would be willing to go quite that high.

As for Embiid, if he makes an All-NBA team this season, he’ll be in a similar situation to the one Giannis and Gobert are in now — super-max eligible based on his performance criteria, but not yet on his contract criteria. He’d have to wait until the 2021 offseason to sign that extension. I expect the Sixers will be ready to do a super-max deal if he keeps playing at this level and doesn’t suffer any more major injuries.

It’s also worth mentioning Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns in this group. They’ll only have five years of NBA experience apiece after this season, so they wouldn’t be able to sign super-max extensions until the 2022 offseason. Technically though, one of them could meet the required performance criteria as early as this spring by winning the MVP award.

Players who can no longer qualify for a super-max contract:

There are many other players who could be added to this list, but these are the three who would otherwise be strong candidates to qualify the super-max if they hadn’t already become ineligible based on one of the required criteria.

In Beal’s case, he opted to sign a standard veteran extension this fall rather than wait to see if he’d make an All-NBA team this season and become eligible for the super-max. By the time he’ll be able to opt out of his new deal in the summer of 2022, he’ll have 10 years of experience under his belt, meaning he’ll automatically qualify for the 35% max.

Davis and Oladipo, meanwhile, were traded while playing out their rookie scale contract extensions, making them ineligible for a super-max. Davis would have been able to sign such a deal this past offseason if he had remained with the Pelicans.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 Offseason In Review: Toronto Raptors

Hoops Rumors is breaking down the 2019 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, revisiting the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll evaluate each team’s moves from the last several months and look ahead to what the 2019/20 season holds for all 30 franchises. Today, we’re focusing on the Toronto Raptors.

Signings:

Trades:

  • None

Draft picks:

  • 2-59: Dewan Hernandez — Signed to three-year, minimum-salary contract. First year partially guaranteed ($500K). Second and third years non-guaranteed. Signed using mid-level exception.

Contract extensions:

  • Pascal Siakam: Four years, 25% maximum salary. Projected value of $129,920,000. Starting salary can be worth between 28-30% of the cap if Siakam earns All-NBA or MVP honors in 2020 (full details). Starts in 2020/21; runs through 2023/24.
  • Kyle Lowry: One year, $30MM. Includes $500K All-Star bonus. Starts in 2020/21; runs through 2020/21.

Departing players:

Other offseason news:

Salary cap situation:

  • Remained over the cap.
  • Hard-capped.
  • Carrying approximately $125.15MM in salary.
  • $961K of mid-level exception still available (used $8.3MM on Patrick McCaw, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Matt Thomas, and Dewan Hernandez).
  • Three traded player exceptions available; largest TPE ($2.54MM) expires 2/7/20.

Story of the summer:

Generally speaking, the Raptors received high grades at the time for the 2018 blockbuster that saw them acquire Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green from the Spurs without surrendering young building blocks like Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby.

However, some skeptics questioned the wisdom of giving up a perennial All-Star like DeMar DeRozan for Leonard, who was on an expiring contract and didn’t even want to be in Toronto. Kawhi had also been limited to just nine games the year before due to a quad injury, creating further uncertainty about what exactly the Raptors were getting in that deal.

The concern that Leonard would be a one-year rental was real, even if early speculation that he wouldn’t even report to Toronto was invented. But after years of disappointing playoff runs, the Raptors had determined it was time for a change. To president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri, the risk of Leonard being one-and-done was worth it, since a healthy Kawhi would give the club a legit chance to make the NBA Finals.

Ujiri’s bet paid off in a big way, as Leonard didn’t just give the Raptors a chance at a title — he led the way as the franchise secured its first-ever championship. It took some good luck along the way – including a fortunate roll on Leonard’s series-ending buzzer beater against the Sixers and a Finals matchup against a Warriors team missing Kevin Durant – but Toronto was one of the NBA’s best teams all season long, and peaked at exactly the right time.

While Ujiri was ultimately right to make that move for Leonard, the skeptics who were concerned about the star forward being a rental were proven right too. Once free agency rolled around, the Los Angeles native decided to head home, joining the Clippers just three weeks after winning a Finals MVP award with the Raptors.

Leonard’s departure stung in Toronto. After all, the hangover from the championship celebration had barely worn off by the time fans found out the team’s best player wouldn’t be back. Still, having that title under their belts made it a whole lot easier for the Raptors and their fans to move on.

Unlike when the Cavaliers lost LeBron James in 2018, losing their star player won’t immediately force the Raptors into rebuilding mode. The team’s cap sheet is relatively clean going forward, and Siakam, Anunoby, and Fred VanVleet give Toronto a few intriguing pieces to build around, with accomplished veterans like Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka still poised to play major roles in the short term.

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Free Agents Signed Now Can’t Be Traded Before Deadline

The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement prevents a team from signing a player and then turning around and trading him shortly thereafter. If a club signs a free agent without having reached an agreement on a sign-and-trade deal, then the club isn’t permitted to trade that player until December 15 or for three months after his signing, whichever is later.

Since most top free agents finalize new contracts in July, that December 15 date applies to most recent signees around the NBA. Several others can’t be traded until January 15, since they met certain criteria when they signed their new deals. And a few more, who either signed after September 15 or received contract extensions, have unique dates when they’ll become trade-eligible.

Now that the calendar has turned to November 7, we can add a new category to that list of players with trade restrictions. Because this season’s trade deadline falls on February 6, any free agent who signs with a team between now and February 6 won’t be eligible to be dealt this season. If a player were to sign a contract today, the three-month anniversary of his signing would fall on February 7, the day after the trade deadline.

This restriction won’t impact a ton of players — many of the free agents signed between now and the trade deadline will get non-guaranteed contracts or 10-day deals, and wouldn’t be trade candidates anyway. Plus, different rules apply to players who sign two-way contracts, as their trade restrictions lift after just 30 days.

Still, last season, a number of veterans signed contracts during this three-month period before the trade deadline and made an impact on their respective teams, including Austin Rivers (Rockets), Kenneth Faried (Rockets), Patrick McCaw (Raptors), and Joakim Noah (Grizzlies).

Those players were ineligible to be flipped in trades before last season’s deadline, and the same restriction will be placed this season on every player who makes a similar impact after being signed anytime in the next three months.

2019 Offseason In Review: Golden State Warriors

Hoops Rumors is breaking down the 2019 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, revisiting the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll evaluate each team’s moves from the last several months and look ahead to what the 2019/20 season holds for all 30 franchises. Today, we’re focusing on the Golden State Warriors.

Signings:

Trades:

  • Acquired the No. 41 pick in 2019 draft (used to select Eric Paschall) from the Hawks in exchange for the Warriors’ 2024 second-round pick and cash ($1.3MM).
  • Acquired the draft rights to Alen Smailagic (No. 39 pick) from the Pelicans in exchange for the Warriors’ 2021 second-round pick, the Warriors’ 2023 second-round pick, and cash ($1MM).
  • Acquired cash ($2MM) from the Jazz in exchange for the draft rights to Miye Oni (No. 58 pick).
  • Acquired Julian Washburn (two-way) from the Grizzlies in exchange for Andre Iguodala, the Warriors’ 2024 first-round pick (top-four protected), and cash ($2MM).
    • Note: Washburn was later waived.
  • Acquired D’Angelo Russell (sign-and-trade), Treveon Graham, and Shabazz Napier from the Nets in exchange for Kevin Durant (sign-and-trade) and the Warriors’ 2020 first-round pick (top-20 protected).
    • Note: If Warriors’ 2020 first-round pick lands in top 20, Nets will instead receive Warriors’ 2025 second-round pick.
  • Acquired Omari Spellman from the Hawks in exchange for Damian Jones and the Warriors’ 2026 second-round pick.
  • Acquired the draft rights to Lior Eliyahu from the Timberwolves in exchange for Treveon Graham, Shabazz Napier, and cash ($3.6MM).

Draft picks:

  • 1-28: Jordan Poole — Signed to rookie contract.
  • 2-39: Alen Smailagic — Signed to four-year, minimum-salary contract. Third and fourth years non-guaranteed. Signed using mid-level exception.
  • 2-41: Eric Paschall — Signed to three-year, minimum-salary contract. Signed using mid-level exception.

Contract extensions:

  • Draymond Green: Four years, $99.67MM. Fourth-year player option. Includes 15% trade kicker. Starts in 2020/21; runs through 2023/24 (with 2023 opt-out).

Departing players:

Other offseason news:

  • Moved From Oracle Arena in Oakland to Chase Center in San Francisco.
  • Klay Thompson out until at least All-Star break after undergoing ACL surgery.
  • Signed president of basketball operations Bob Myers to a contract extension; signed president and COO Rick Welts to a contract extension.
  • Hired Zaza Pachulia as consultant.
  • Named Ryan Atkinson general manager of G League affiliate (Santa Cruz Warriors).
  • Exercised 2020/21 rookie scale options on Jacob Evans, Omari Spellman.

Salary cap situation:

  • Remained over the cap.
  • Hard-capped; approximately $375K below hard cap.
  • Carrying approximately $138.55MM in salary.
  • Approximately $5.93MM over the tax line.
  • $5.28MM of mid-level exception still available (used $3.97MM on Willie Cauley-Stein, Alen Smailagic, and Eric Paschall).
  • Full bi-annual exception ($3.62MM) still available.
    • Note: Due to hard cap, the Warriors would have to reduce salary elsewhere in order to use full MLE and/or BAE.
  • Five traded player exceptions available; largest TPE ($17.19MM) expires 7/7/20.

Story of the summer:

No NBA team had a wilder, more up-and-down offseason than the Warriors, whose run of five consecutive appearances in the Finals was capped by a torn Achilles for Kevin Durant and a torn ACL for Klay Thompson, both of whom were about to become unrestricted free agents.

As the Warriors prepared to move across the bay from Oakland to San Francisco, they had to figure out whether they’d be able to re-sign two stars with multiple All-NBA nods under their belts, and how they’d replace those players if they didn’t return.

Fortunately, Thompson never seriously considered signing elsewhere and was locked up quickly once free agency opened. But Durant didn’t follow suit. After being linked to New York all year long, KD made his expected cross-country move, joining the Nets rather than the Knicks.

While losing Durant would seriously compromise the Warriors’ ability to maintain their dynasty, the team had shown over the years – and as recently as this spring – that it was a force to be reckoned with even without the two-time Finals MVP in its lineup. His departure would hardly launch a full-fledged rebuild in Golden State. It was simply a matter of deciding how to reload, with two paths potentially available to the Dubs.

Path one would have involved allowing Durant to walk outright. Without having to account for a maximum-salary contract for KD, the Warriors would have had the flexibility to bring back veteran contributors like Andre Iguodala and use their mid-level exception (taxpayer or non-taxpayer) to add another rotation player or two.

Instead, the Warriors chose path two. Recognizing that Durant’s departure may be their best – and only – opportunity to add a young star to their roster anytime soon, they worked out a sign-and-trade deal with Brooklyn that allowed them to acquire D’Angelo Russell in return.

While the idea of landing a young All-Star like Russell rather than losing Durant for “nothing” seems like a no-brainer on the surface, acquiring D-Lo came at a cost. By the time the dust had settled, the Warriors had to surrender Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, two future first-round picks (one heavily protected), and all their available trade cash for the league year ($5.6MM) in order to make the acquisition of Russell work.

That move also imposed a hard cap on the Warriors that will make it virtually impossible for the team to make any in-season roster changes or to even carry a full 15-man roster for most of the year. With Thompson already expected to spend most or all of the season on the shelf, Golden State essentially had to start the season down two roster spots, leaving little margin for error.

All those drawbacks don’t mean that acquiring Russell was the wrong move. But it put a lot of pressure on him, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green to make up for the depth the Warriors sacrificed in the process.

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