Hoops Rumors Originals

2019 Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Bucks

November 5th, 2019 at 4:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is breaking down the 2019 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, revisiting the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll evaluate each team’s moves from the last several months and look ahead to what the 2019/20 season holds for all 30 franchises. Today, we’re focusing on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Signings:

Standard contracts:
- Khris Middleton: Five years, $177.5MM. Fifth-year player option. Re-signed using Bird rights.
- Brook Lopez: Four years, $52MM. Re-signed using cap room.
- George Hill: Three years, $28.77MM. Third year partially guaranteed ($1.28MM). Re-signed using cap room.
- Robin Lopez: Two years, $9.77MM. Second-year player option. Signed using room exception.
- Wesley Matthews: Two years, minimum salary. Second-year player option. Signed using minimum salary exception.
- Thanasis Antetokounmpo: Two years, minimum salary. Signed using minimum salary exception.
- Dragan Bender: Two years, minimum salary. Partially guaranteed ($300K). Signed using minimum salary exception.
  - Note: Partial guarantee increased to $600K on opening night.
- Kyle Korver: One year, minimum salary. Signed using minimum salary exception.
Two-way contracts:
- Cameron Reynolds
- Frank Mason
Non-guaranteed camp contracts:
- Jaylen Adams: One year, minimum salary (Waived).
- Jemerrio Jones: One year, minimum salary (Waived).
- Trevor Lacey: One year, minimum salary (Waived).
- Luke Maye: One year, minimum salary (Waived).
- Rayjon Tucker: One year, minimum salary (Waived).

Trades:

Acquired Jon Leuer from the Pistons in exchange for Tony Snell and the draft rights to Kevin Porter Jr. (No. 30 pick).
- Note: Leuer was later waived.
Acquired the Pacers’ 2020 first-round pick (top-14 protected), the Pacers’ 2021 second-round pick, and the Pacers’ 2025 second-round pick from the Pacers in exchange for Malcolm Brogdon (sign-and-trade).
- Note: The Pacers’ traded 2021 second-round pick will convey one year after the Pacers’ 2020 second-round pick (45-60 protected through 2022; unprotected in 2023) conveys.

Draft picks:

None

Departing players:

Malcolm Brogdon
Bonzie Colson (two-way)
Tim Frazier
Pau Gasol
Nikola Mirotic
Tony Snell

Other offseason news:

Signed general manager Jon Horst to contract extension.
Lost assistant coach Taylor Jenkins to Grizzlies.
Hired Chad Forcier as assistant coach.
Fined $50K by NBA for publicly vowing to offer Giannis Antetokounmpo super-max deal in 2020.
Exercised 2020/21 rookie scale team options on D.J. Wilson, Donte DiVincenzo.

Salary cap situation:

Used cap space; now over the cap.
Carrying approximately $129.63MM in salary.
No cap exceptions available.

Story of the summer:

The Bucks were one of the NBA’s most improved teams in 2018/19, winning a league-high 60 regular season games and 10 of their first 11 playoff contests before losing four straight to the eventual champion Raptors.

While that four-game losing streak to end the season – the first time the Bucks had lost more than two in a row all year – was discouraging, it was hard not to focus on the positives as the offseason began. Kawhi Leonard‘s looming departure meant that the Bucks would probably have the upper hand in their next matchup with the Raptors. It also meant Milwaukee would have the Eastern Conference’s best player in Giannis Antetokounmpo, last season’s MVP. Now it was just a matter of bringing back his supporting cast.

That last part would be a challenge. Of the seven non-Giannis Bucks who played the most minutes in the postseason, only two were under contract beyond 2018/19, and one of those two was Eric Bledsoe, who played poorly during the club’s postseason series vs. Toronto.

While Antetokounmpo was the player most responsible for the Bucks’ 60-win season, he didn’t do it by himself. An offseason exodus of talent would hurt Milwaukee’s chances of making another deep playoff run and might negatively impact the organization’s chances of keeping the reigning MVP around beyond his current contract.

So general manager Jon Horst and the Bucks’ front office got creative as they looked to retain as much talent as possible. They dipped below the cap to offer Brook Lopez a bigger contract than his Non-Bird rights would allow, while retaining Khris Middleton‘s full Bird rights in order to eventually go back over the cap when they re-signed him. George Hill, meanwhile, was waived and then re-signed to a longer, more cap-friendly deal.

Milwaukee didn’t retain everyone though. Nikola Mirotic, who opted to return to his home country to play for Barcelona, almost certainly would’ve landed with a new team even if he had remained in the NBA. Malcolm Brogdon, on the other hand, looked like a strong candidate to be brought back by the Bucks, but they ultimately sent him to Indiana in a sign-and-trade in exchange for multiple draft picks, including a first-rounder.

At times last season – particularly after he returned in the playoffs – Brogdon looked like the Bucks’ second-best player, but a handful of factors contributed to his exit. Among the most notable factors? Bledsoe’s $70MM extension, signed in March, and an apparent reluctance by Bucks ownership to go into tax territory.

There were no real cap limitations stopping Milwaukee from re-signing Brogdon with or without Bledsoe’s deal on the books, but if the team was looking to avoid substantial tax penalties, it essentially had to keep one point guard or the other. It’ll be fascinating to see whether choosing Bledsoe in the winter before he struggled in the postseason for a second consecutive spring will come back to haunt the Bucks.

Key offseason losses:

Brogdon’s ability to handle the ball, make shots, and play strong perimeter defense made him a valuable asset for the Bucks. His .505/.426/.928 shooting line was one of the best in the NBA in 2018/19, and despite playing plenty of point guard, he didn’t dominate the ball at all, often deferring to Antetokounmpo and Bledsoe.

The Bucks haven’t said a whole lot about Brogdon’s departure, so it’s not clear just how significant a factor the tax concerns were in the decision to let him go. A June report suggested that the team had a “walk-away” number it was unwilling to exceed on Brogdon, so if the Pacers’ offer was higher than that number, Milwaukee did well to get some draft picks out of the situation.

It’s also worth noting that Brogdon was red-flagged prior to the 2016 draft due to foot surgery, and once again battled foot issues in ’18/19. If the Bucks were worried about those foot issues continuing to re-surface in future seasons, that could be another reason why the team was unwilling to match the Pacers’ four-year, $85MM offer.

Mirotic was the other key loss for the Bucks, though he was another player – like Bledsoe – who stumbled in the playoffs, making just 28.9% of his postseason three-point attempts, including 6-of-31 (19.4%) vs. Toronto. Mirotic’s floor-spacing abilities as a big man helped open up Milwaukee’s offense and create driving lanes for Antetokounmpo and others, but when he wasn’t making those shots, he was essentially unplayable — he didn’t log a single minute in Game 6 vs. the Raptors, the final game of the Bucks’ season.

Tony Snell had been a starter for Milwaukee during the previous two seasons, but came off the bench in 2018/19 and saw his role cut back — his 17.6 minutes per game represented his lowest mark since his rookie year. He remained a solid contributor, knocking down 39.7% of his three-pointers, but it became untenable for the team to carry his multiyear contract and his eight-figure annual salary as core players became more expensive. He was moved to Detroit in a salary-dump deal.

Tim Frazier and Pau Gasol also departed this summer, though neither loss should have a major impact on the Bucks’ rotation. Frazier played extremely limited minutes in the playoffs, while ankle and foot injuries limited Gasol to just three games in total during his brief stint in Milwaukee.

Key offseason additions:

Rather than signing another point guard to provide depth behind Bledsoe and Hill, the Bucks tabbed Wesley Matthews to help fill the void created by Brogdon’s departure. At age 33, Matthews isn’t the same sort of high-quality three-and-D player he once was, but he can still provide enough value at both ends of the court to easily outperform his minimum-salary contract. In 69 games for three teams last season, he knocked down 37.2% of 5.8 three-point attempts per game.

With Mirotic and Gasol on the way out, the Bucks replenished their frontcourt depth by signing Robin Lopez and Dragan Bender in free agency. The former signing pairs the Lopez twins up front, and while I doubt we’ll see them playing alongside one another too often, Robin brings a much different skill set than Brook does.

Brook is a talented low-post scorer who added a reliable three-point shot to his game in recent years and helped protect the rim for the Bucks in 2018/19. Robin isn’t as dynamic an offensive player and probably won’t give the team much from beyond the arc, despite his uptick in three-point attempts in the early going this season. However, he’s a fundamentally sound, high-IQ contributor who plays excellent team defense and has mastered the art of the box-out. He’ll be an important part of Milwaukee’s rotation when the club goes up against top Eastern Conference centers like Joel Embiid and Marc Gasol.

Bender, on the other hand, is a developmental piece who probably won’t play much unless injuries force the Bucks’ hand. The same can be said of Thanasis Antetokounmpo, one of the offseason’s most improbable recipients of a multiyear guaranteed contract. It’s probably safe to say he wouldn’t be on Milwaukee’s roster if his last name were Smith.

The other new addition to the Bucks’ rotation this season is Kyle Korver, who signed a minimum-salary contract after being bought out by Phoenix. Even at age 38, Korver looks capable of making 40% of his three-pointers in his sleep. His marksmanship could come in handy for Milwaukee, though he’ll have to prove he’s not a liability on defense in order to hang onto his spot in the rotation all season and into the playoffs.

Outlook for 2019/20:

Bucks players and coaches probably lost some sleep during the summer thinking about the overtime period of Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. If the Bucks had won that game, it would’ve given them a 3-0 lead over Toronto and perhaps put them in the driver’s seat to win a championship.

This year’s Bucks team might not be quite as talented as last year’s squad, but it also might not need to be. Milwaukee’s top competitors each lost key players, with Leonard leaving Toronto and Jimmy Butler leaving Philadelphia. Both teams still have extremely talented rosters, and clubs like the Celtics and Heat are threatening to move into the top tier of Eastern Conference contenders, but there’s a reason oddsmakers’ forecasts during the preseason viewed the Bucks as the team to beat.

This season could go a long way toward convincing Giannis one way or the other whether he wants a long-term future in Milwaukee, so the Bucks will do all they can this year to push for a title. Anything less than a return trip to the Eastern Finals will be considered a disappointment.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: How Long Will Sixers Remain Undefeated?

November 4th, 2019 at 11:04am CST by Luke Adams

Six days ago, we asked which of the NBA’s four undefeated teams would be the last to lose. One after another, over the next three nights, the Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Spurs removed themselves from that conversation, suffering their first losses of the young season and leaving the Sixers as the last undefeated team standing.

With a one-point win over Portland on Saturday night, the 76ers kept that streak alive, and will enter tonight’s action with a 5-0 record. Buoyed by the NBA’s best rebounding rate and a defense that leads the league in steals, Philadelphia has put together its streak while still finding its way on offense. Now we’ll see how just much longer the club can stay out of the loss column.

Although Saturday’s win over the Trail Blazers was a good one, it was just the start of a challening road trip for the Sixers, who will play in Phoenix tonight, in Utah on Wednesday, and in Denver on Friday.

If Philadelphia can make it through that gauntlet unscathed, the team will be rewarded with winnable home games against the Hornets (November 10) and Cavaliers (Nov. 12) before going back on the road to face Orlando (Nov. 13), Oklahoma City (Nov. 15), and Cleveland again (Nov. 17).

The most likely scenario for the Sixers is dropping one of this week’s road games — the Jazz and Nuggets are expected to be among the West’s best teams, while the Suns are off to a good start and won’t have to face Joel Embiid, who is serving the final game of his two-game suspension tonight.

Plus, over the last few years, the NBA’s last undefeated team typically hasn’t gotten much further than this point without losing. The Bucks started 7-0 in 2018; the Clippers and Spurs went 4-0 in 2017; and the Cavaliers went 6-0 to open the 2016/17 season.

Of course, it wouldn’t be unprecedented for Philadelphia to continue its season-opening win streak into the double digits. In fact, the Warriors did much better than that in the fall of 2015 when they opened the season with an incredible 24-game winning streak. That Golden State squad was also the NBA’s best regular season team of all-time though, finishing the year with a 73-9 record. It seems safe to say the Sixers aren’t on that level.

What do you think? Will the 76ers’ run as the league’s last undefeated team end soon, or can they keep this streak going for at least few more games?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your prediction.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

2019 Offseason In Review: Houston Rockets

November 2nd, 2019 at 3:55pm CST by Luke Adams

Signings:

Standard contracts:
- Nene: Two years, $20MM. Second-year non-guaranteed. Minimum base salaries; significant likely incentives. Re-signed using Bird rights.
- Danuel House: Three years, $11.1MM. Re-signed using taxpayer mid-level exception.
- Austin Rivers: Two years, minimum salary. Second-year player option. Re-signed using minimum salary exception.
- Ben McLemore: Two years, minimum salary. Partially guaranteed ($50K; increased to $500K on opening night). Signed using minimum salary exception.
- Tyson Chandler: One year, minimum salary. Signed using minimum salary exception.
- Gerald Green: One year, minimum salary. Re-signed using minimum salary exception.
- Thabo Sefolosha: One year, minimum salary. Signed using minimum salary exception.
- Ryan Anderson: One year, minimum salary. Partially guaranteed ($250K; increased to $500K on opening night). Signed using minimum salary exception.
Two-way contracts:
- Michael Frazier
- Ronshad Shabazz (Waived)
Non-guaranteed camp contracts:
- Chris Clemons: One year, minimum salary (Converted to two-way contract).
- Anthony Bennett: One year, minimum salary (Waived).
- Jaron Blossomgame: One year, minimum salary (Waived).
- Matur Maker: One year, minimum salary (Waived).
- William McDowell-White: One year, minimum salary (Waived).
- Shamorie Ponds: One year, minimum salary (Waived).

Trades:

Acquired Russell Westbrook from the Thunder in exchange for Chris Paul, the Rockets’ 2024 first-round pick (top-four protected), the Rockets’ 2026 first-round pick (top-four protected), the right to swap 2021 first-round picks (top-four protected), the right to swap 2025 first-round picks (top-10 protected), and conditional cash ($1MM).
- Note: The Rockets would only owe the Thunder $1MM (and a 2026 second-round pick) if the 2026 first-round pick lands in the top four.

Draft picks:

None

Waiver claims:

Deyonta Davis (from Hawks): Two years, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed second year. Claimed using minimum salary exception. (Later waived).
Ray Spalding (from Hawks): One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed. Claimed using minimum salary exception. (Later waived).

Contract extensions:

Eric Gordon: Four years, $75.57MM. Fourth year is non-guaranteed. Starts in 2020/21; runs through 2023/24.

Departing players:

Chris Chiozza (waived)
Trevon Duval (two-way)
Vince Edwards (two-way)
Kenneth Faried
Chris Paul
Iman Shumpert

Other offseason news:

Created tension between NBA, China after GM Daryl Morey tweeted support for protestors in Hong Kong.
Failed to reach extension agreement with head coach Mike D’Antoni.
Parted ways with associate head coach Jeff Bzdelik and other assistant coaches.
Hired Elston Turner as lead assistant coach.
Gerald Green underwent surgery on broken foot; expected to miss six months.
Renounced draft rights to 2013 second-round pick Marko Todorovic.

Salary cap situation:

Remained over the cap.
Carrying approximately $141.2MM in salary.
Approximately $1.3MM over the tax line after removing Nene‘s incentives.
$2.72MM of taxpayer mid-level exception still available ($3.54MM used on Danuel House).
Seven traded player exceptions available; largest TPE ($3.62MM) expires 2/7/20.

Story of the summer:

In the 2018 playoffs, an unfortunately-timed Chris Paul injury helped sink Houston in the Western Conference Finals and derailed what could have been a title run. In 2019’s rematch with the Warriors, it was Golden State dealing with a potentially devastating injury to a star, as a Kevin Durant calf strain opened the door for Houston to exact its revenge.

Even playing at home against a Durant-less Golden State team in Game 6 of the Western Semifinals though, the Rockets couldn’t pull out a victory. And after suffering yet another postseason defeat at the hands of the Warriors, Houston went soul searching.

Reports swirled early in the offseason that the relationship between James Harden and Paul was becoming increasingly untenable. Trade rumors surrounded nearly everyone Rockets player except Harden, with Clint Capela seemingly on the verge of being dealt at one point as Houston pushed to land Jimmy Butler.

However, the break-up of the Warriors at the start of the free agent period was a game changer. With Kevin Durant headed elsewhere and Klay Thompson having just undergone ACL surgery, the Western Conference suddenly looked a little more wide open.

It wouldn’t take a drastic overhaul of the Rockets’ roster to make the team a legit championship contender after all. No team besides the Warriors had defeated Houston in the postseason since 2017. With the Dubs defanged, why couldn’t the Rockets emerge as the new frontrunner in the West?

Of course, with would-be contenders in Utah, Denver, and Los Angeles loading up at the same time, simply standing pat wouldn’t necessarily put the Rockets in position to fill the power vacuum in the West. So just when it looked as if a wild week or two of player movement was winding down, general manager Daryl Morey went out and made a splash of his own, sending Paul to the Thunder in a trade for Russell Westbrook.

It’s still not clear how much the reported tension between Harden and Paul factored into the move — Morey has denied it was a factor and downplayed the notion it even existed in the first place. But at this point, the more pressing question is how the pairing of former MVPs in the Rockets’ backcourt will work. Houston faced similar questions after the acquisition of Paul in 2017 and ultimately quieted those skeptics, but Westbrook isn’t the shooter that CP3 is, and he’s one of the only players in the NBA who is as ball-dominant as Harden. It’ll make for a fascinating merger.

Of course, you could argue that the real story of the Rockets’ summer was what happened in the fall, when Morey created an international incident with a brief, quickly-deleted tweet in support of Hong Kong protestors. Houston has long been the most popular franchise in China due to Yao Ming‘s stint with the team, but Morey’s well-meaning message in support of human rights may changed that in one fell swoop.

It could be months or years before we have a real idea of how that one tweet impacted the Rockets and the NBA financially, but for now Morey and the team have gone mum on the issue, hoping to shift fans’ focus to what’s happening on the court.

Key offseason losses:

Although many of their role players hit free agency this summer, the Rockets only ended up losing a couple of them, since most re-signed.

Iman Shumpert, acquired at last year’s trade deadline, was one of the two to walk, despite Houston’s efforts to bring him back. Shumpert is the kind of tough perimeter defender who fits in well with the Rockets, but his three-point shot wasn’t reliable after he left Sacramento, where he shot 36.6% from beyond the arc. He made fewer than 30% of his three-point attempts down the stretch for Houston.

Kenneth Faried, who was working on developing a three-point shot of his own, mostly occupied the kind of rim-running role that Capela typically plays, and did well in that role, averaging 12.9 PPG and 8.2 RPG in 24.4 minutes per contest. However, he was in and out of the rotation in the second half and barely played at all in the postseason.

The most impactful offseason loss for the Rockets will be Paul, who was still playing well even as injuries limited him to just 58 regular season appearances in each of two seasons in Houston. He was particularly effective in 2018/19 when Harden was on the bench — CP3 posted a net rating of +10.4 with Harden sitting, compared to a +7.4 net rating when the two guards shared the court.

Still, Paul will turn 35 next May and his contract was one of the least team-friendly deals in the NBA, increasing to $44MM+ in 2021/22, his age-36 season. Westbrook’s deal has the same cap hits as CP3’s and runs for an extra year, but he’ll only be 34 years old by the time it expires, so the Rockets are hoping to get better value out of his remaining prime years.

Key offseason additions:

Westbrook has never been a particularly strong shooter, but his .428/.290/.656 line in 2018/19 was among the worst of his career. Fortunately, he made up for it by averaging a triple-double (11.1 RPG, 10.7 APG) for a third consecutive season and by putting relentless pressure on opposing defenses.

While the Rockets will try to convince Westbrook to cut back a little on his mid-range shot attempts, the team is intrigued by his ability to push the pace, something Houston didn’t do a whole lot last season. Westbrook is among the best passers in the NBA, and could help create a few extra transition looks for his new teammates.

Even though Westbrook’s contract is a little more favorable than Paul’s, it doesn’t take much of a drop-off for the value of those super-max deals to dip. With four years still left on Westbrook’s contract, a major injury or decline in productivity would leave Houston stuck with a bad asset. Keeping that in mind, it will be interesting to see just how long the Rockets give the Harden/Westbrook partnership to succeed. In this era of constant player movement, it would actually be a bit surprising if both players are still on the roster by the time their contracts expire in 2023.

The Rockets’ other roster additions this summer were minimum-salary free agent signings — Tyson Chandler and Ryan Anderson join the frontcourt, with Ben McLemore and Thabo Sefolosha on the wing.

Chandler and Anderson offer significantly different skill sets, but neither player should have a problem acclimating to the Rockets’ style of play. Anderson, a floor-spacing stretch four, previously spent two years with the club, while Chandler is an 18-year veteran who knows by this point what role teams will ask him to play — he’s in Houston for his defense, rim protection, and rebounding, and won’t be expected to contribute much on the other end of the floor.

McLemore – whose salary for 2019/20 still isn’t fully guaranteed – and Sefolosha are low-risk acquisitions who don’t figure to play major roles unless they force the issue and prove they deserve regular minutes. Of the two, Sefolosha has the stronger track record, having shown in the past that he can be a three-and-D contributor for playoff teams. We’ll see if he’s still capable of doing so at age 35.

Outlook for 2019/20:

The Rockets won 118 games over the last two years. During that time, they came closer than any team besides the 2019 champion Raptors to ending the Warriors’ dynasty. With that Warriors’ dynasty at least on hiatus, if not over altogether, Houston is bringing back a roster featuring most of the same key pieces, with Westbrook replacing Paul in what should be considered an upgrade. There’s no reason Houston shouldn’t be among the handful of teams capable of winning a championship in 2020.

Still, there are some worrisome storylines. This is the oldest roster in the NBA. Mike D’Antoni‘s lame-duck status is odd, as is Tilman Fertitta‘s apparent aversion to the luxury tax. And the franchise’s suddenly-frosty relationship with its Chinese partners could become a distracting ongoing saga.

In a competitive Western Conference, it wouldn’t be a total shock if the Rockets finish outside the top four and are eliminated in the first round, but that’s probably a worst-case scenario. If everything breaks right, this is still a team with championship upside.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 10/26/19 – 11/2/19

November 2nd, 2019 at 2:10pm CST by Luke Adams

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

Our Offseason in Review series continued with looks at the following teams:
We kicked off our Trade Candidate series for the 2019/20 season with a look at the Southeast Division, then launched our 2020 Free Agent Stock Watch series by examining the Atlantic.
The deadline to exercise 2020/21 rookie scale options passed on Thursday. Here’s our recap of those decisions.
We’re tracking this season’s disabled player exceptions.
Certain players who signed late in free agency or received contract extensions won’t become trade-eligible until specific dates. Here’s our breakdown of those players and dates.
We listed all 100 G League “affiliate players” for the 2019/20 season.
I explored how the Heat‘s low-risk bet on Kendrick Nunn is paying off.
Here are this week’s polls and Community Shootaround discussions:
- Which undefeated team will be the last to lose? (poll) (link)
- Which winless team will be the last to win? (poll) (link)
- Which stars and role players will be most effective for new teams? (link)
- Would you rather start a franchise with Luka Doncic or Trae Young? (link)

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Atlantic Division

November 1st, 2019 at 9:53pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Atlantic Division:

Fred VanVleet, Raptors, 25, SG (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $18MM deal in 2018
VanVleet was a key reserve in the Raptors’ run to the championship. With Danny Green‘s departure, he’s now a backcourt starter alongside Kyle Lowry. Green was mainly a floor spacer, while VanVleet has provided the added element of playmaking to help make up for the enormous loss of Kawhi Leonard. He’s averaging a team-high 7.2 assists through the first five games while getting the line more often and delivering his usual excellent shooting from deep. An unrestricted free agent next summer, VanVleet will attract plenty of attention in a weak FA market.

James Ennis, Sixers, 29, SF (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $4MM deal in 2019
Ennis has bounced around the league, wearing six different uniforms since his rookie year in 2014/15. He saw action in 18 regular-season and 11 postseason games with Philadelphia after being acquired from the Rockets in a trade deadline swap. Thus far this season, Ennis has retained a rotation spot and helped around the boards (5.8 RPG in 14.0 MPG). Ennis has a $2.13MM player option after the season — if can remain a contributor on a contender, perhaps he’ll feel comfortable opting out and testing the market for additional security.

Marcus Morris, Knicks, 30, SF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $15MM deal in 2019
Morris caused a lot of consternation in the Spurs’ organization by reneging on a two-year verbal agreement and then signing a one-year deal with New York, giving him more money this season and the freedom to explore the market again next year. In his first five games with the Knicks, Morris is the one doing the squawking. He’s already picked up a league-high three technicals. He’s also off to a slow shooting start (35%). It’s hard to see Morris enhancing his value with New York but his expiring contract could be attractive to a contender looking for a frontcourt player.

Daniel Theis, Celtics, 27, PF (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $10MM deal in 2019
Theis’ $5MM salary for next season isn’t guaranteed until July 3rd and there will a number of factors playing into the Celtics’ decision next summer, especially whether Gordon Hayward and Enes Kanter opt in. What Theis can control is being productive when he gets opportunities and making it a tougher decision for the front office. Theis needs to have more nights like he did Wednesday, when coach Brad Stevens used him for 28 minutes and he produced 11 points and nine rebounds. The 6’8” Theis will see quite a bit of time at the ‘five’ spot in downsized lineups.

Wilson Chandler, Nets, 32, SF (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2.56MM deal in 2019
Chandler quietly latched on with the Nets on a veteran’s minimum contract while they inked deals with high-profile free agents Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and DeAndre Jordan. Chandler’s chances of carving out a role in coach Kenny Atkinson‘s rotation was squashed by a 25-game league suspension for a failed PED test. It’s uncertain what Brooklyn plans are for Chandler once he becomes eligible on December 15. However, the suspension won’t make it any easier for his agent to find his client work next summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Doncic Or Young?

November 1st, 2019 at 7:39pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The careers of the Mavericks’ Luka Doncic and Hawks’ Trae Young will be forever linked.

They were traded for each other, with the Hawks receiving an additional first-round pick in a draft-night deal that allowed Dallas to move up two notches.

Initially, the Mavericks looked like they had fleeced the Hawks. Doncic, who had been playing at the highest level of competition in Europe for years, made an immediate impact while Young struggled with his shooting and turnovers during the first half of last season.

Perceptions quickly changed when Young grew more comfortable with the NBA game. After averaging 16.9 PPG, 7.6 APG and 3.9 TPG while shooting 31.2% from long range, Young sliced up defenders after the All-Star break to the tune of 24.7 PPG, 9.2 APG and 34.8% shooting beyond the arc while reducing his turnovers (3.4).

Young came up short in the Rookie of the Year voting to Doncic but it was clear that both teams had franchise players on their hands.

During the early going this season, they have seemingly upped the ante. Now partnered with a healthy Kristaps Porzingis, Doncic has averaged 25.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 6.8 APG and 2.0 SPG, an increase in each category from his final totals last season (21.4/7.9/6.0/1.1). Dallas is off to a 3-1 start and has the look of a playoff contender.

In Young’s first two games this season, he spoiled the Pistons’ home opener with a 39-point, seven-rebound, nine-assist performance, then posted nearly identical numbers against the Magic in another Hawks victory (38 points, seven rebounds, nine assists). He suffered a minor ankle sprain in the team’s fourth game but should be back soon.

Young’s speed, ankle-breaking moves and unlimited shooting range, a la Stephen Curry, make him a nightmare for defenders. Doncic’s guile, creativity and sneaky athleticism, a la James Harden, provide a different set of headaches for opponents.

Safe to say, both franchises are thrilled with the player they wound up with last June.

That brings us to our question of the day: If you were starting a franchise, which young floor leader would you choose — Luka Doncic and Trae Young — and why?

Please take to the comments section to voice your opinion. We look forward to what you have to say.

Heat’s Bet On Kendrick Nunn Paying Off

November 1st, 2019 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

As the Heat made their major roster moves in July, Kendrick Nunn‘s chances to secure a spot on the team’s 15-man regular-season squad appeared to be in jeopardy. At that time, Nunn only had a $50K partial guarantee on his deal, and Miami’s offseason maneuvers had imposed a $138.93MM hard cap on the team, leaving little breathing room below that cap.

Without the flexibility to add a 15th man to their roster, the Heat would have to make the most of their other 14 roster spots. Presumably, that would mean carrying 14 players capable of playing real minutes, and it wasn’t clear that an undrafted rookie such as Nunn fit that bill. Waiving him would only cost Miami $50K, and would give the club the flexibility to bring in a minimum-salary veteran who could contribute immediately.

However, the former Oakland University standout – who ranked second in the NCAA in scoring in 2017/18, behind only Trae Young – impressed the Heat in Summer League play. Nunn averaged 24.0 PPG in two Summer League games in Sacramento, then 21.0 PPG in four Las Vegas contests. When the team kept him under contract through August 1, allowing his partial guarantee to increase to $150K, it became clear that he was in position to earn that 14th and final roster spot.

Three months later, Nunn isn’t just the Heat’s 14th man — he’s their leading scorer.

Through the first five games of his NBA career, the 24-year-old is averaging 22.4 PPG on .518/.484/1.000 shooting and has played a key role in Miami’s 4-1 start. According to ESPN, he has scored more points in his first five NBA games than all but two players (Kevin Durant and Jerry Stackhouse) who have debuted in the last 25 years.

While Nunn almost certainly won’t keep up this pace, he’s no longer at risk of losing his roster spot, meaning his $1,416,852 minimum salary should become fully guaranteed in January. At that price, he could be one of the NBA’s best bargains both this season and next, when he has a $1,663,861 non-guaranteed salary.

Assuming he plays out that contract, Nunn will be on track to become a restricted free agent during the summer of 2021 with two seasons’ worth of NBA games under his belt. However, as cap expert Albert Nahmad pointed out earlier this week (via Twitter), Miami won’t just have Early Bird rights on Nunn at that time. Because he signed his current contract with one day left in the 2018/19 regular season, he’s credited with an extra year of service.

That means the Heat will have full Bird rights on Nunn by the time he’s eligible for free agency, meaning they could offer him anything up to the max. With only his Early Bird rights, they would have been limited to making him an offer in the mid-level range, and would’ve opened the door to a potential back-loaded offer sheet like the one they were forced to match for Tyler Johnson in 2016.

After five games, it’s far too early to say with any certainty that the Heat will even need that sort of financial flexibility to sign Nunn to his next contract. But if he continues to produce and increase his value, his current contract will make him an ideal asset for Miami to carry into 2021’s free agent period. The Heat reportedly want to make a run at stars that summer and could maximize their cap space by keeping Nunn’s minimum-salary cap hold on the books as they pursue top free agents. Once they’ve used up all their cap room, they could go over the cap to re-sign him.

Again, it’s worth stressing that Nunn’s hot streak likely won’t last — he’s not going to shoot .518/.484/1.000 all season. It’s entirely possible that by the All-Star break, the Heat’s investment won’t look quite as savvy as it does now.

Still, ESPN’s Zach Lowe says several clubs around the NBA are “kicking themselves” for not rolling the dice on Nunn. That group includes the Warriors, who had him on their G League roster for most of the 2018/19 season after waiving him last fall.

According to Lowe, some teams tried to entice Nunn earlier in the year by promising a training camp deal for this fall, but the Heat went a step further, signing him to a multiyear deal at the very end of the ’18/19 season. That bet is paying off in a big way for Miami now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NBA Trade Candidate Watch: Southeast Division

November 1st, 2019 at 1:13pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of the 2019/20 NBA season, up until February’s trade deadline, we’re keeping an eye on potential trade candidates from around the NBA, monitoring their value and exploring the likelihood that they’ll be moved. Each of these looks at possible trade candidates focuses on a specific division, as we zero in on three players from that division.

Friday is just the 11th day of the 2019/20 regular season, so trade talks around the NBA haven’t started to heat up yet. In fact, the trade market has been pretty quiet for months — no deal has been completed since the Thunder and Rockets finalized their Russell Westbrook/Chris Paul swap way back on July 16.

Still, based on contract situations and early-season rotations, some potential trade candidates may begin to emerge sooner rather than later. Here’s a look at three Southeast players who could fit that bill…

Dion Waiters, SG
Miami Heat
$12.1MM cap hit; $12.65MM guaranteed salary in 2020/21

Waiters was said to be unhappy with his playing time during the preseason and was suspended for the Heat‘s first game of the season after expressing his displeasure on the sidelines during the club’s final exhibition contest. Since then, he has remained inactive as he works toward meeting Miami’s conditioning requirements.

According to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald (Twitter link), Waiters was “contrite” when he met with Heat officials this week, so perhaps he’ll eventually return to action, accept a reduced role, and play out the rest of his contract with the team without incident. Still, this feels a little like the situation Miami previously encountered with Hassan Whiteside, who griped about his declining role multiple times and eventually got traded.

With two years still left on his contract, Waiters doesn’t have positive trade value at this point, and the Heat’s hard cap will make it tricky for them to pull off certain deals. A trade may have to wait until 2020/21. But if the team explores the market in search of a major deal in the coming months, Waiters is a good candidate to be included to match salaries and get him a change of scenery.

Willy Hernangomez, C
Charlotte Hornets
$1.68MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

The Hornets almost certainly wouldn’t mind moving big expiring contracts belonging to Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Marvin Williams. But it’s hard to imagine the team getting quality assets for any of those players.

As Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer pointed out in a recent mailbag, a trade involving Hernangomez might be more realistic, since his expiring salary is just $1.68MM. If a team is willing to give up a second-round pick for Hernangomez, Charlotte would probably listen, Bonnell writes.

Still, it’s not clear if there will be a team willing to pay even that modest price for Hernangomez, whose stock has dipped in the years since a promising 2016/17 rookie season. He has played in just two of the Hornets’ five games so far, and his trade value will be limited by the fact that he’ll be an unrestricted – rather than restricted – free agent at season’s end.

C.J. Miles, G/F
Washington Wizards
$8.73MM cap hit; UFA in 2020

Miles has already been traded twice in 2019, from Toronto to Memphis in February and then to Washington in July. With the Wizards in retooling mode and not expected to contend this season, there’s no reason to think the team wouldn’t move him once more before the deadline if he can rebuild his value.

Although he’s still recovering from offseason foot surgery, Miles is reportedly inching closer to making his Wizards debut. The veteran swingman should fit right in on a squad that has been letting it fly from beyond the arc so far — Washington has attempted the sixth-most three-pointers in the NBA (38.0 3PG) and ranks fourth in three-point percentage (38.2%).

Given the other shooters on their rosters, the Wizards won’t need to lean on Miles to space the floor, but it will be interesting to see whether they give him regular minutes to showcase him for a potential trade. That $8.73MM expiring deal won’t be easy to move, and a buyout may ultimately be more likely, but if Miles looks healthy and is knocking down 40% of his threes, maybe a playoff team in need of shooting help gets desperate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Recap Of 2020/21 Rookie Scale Option Decisions

November 1st, 2019 at 8:44am CST by Luke Adams

Decisions on rookie scale options for the 2020/21 season were due on Thursday — any team that wanted to exercise a third- or fourth-year option on a player for next season was required to do so by last night.

As is typically the case, a huge majority of those options were picked up. Even for top picks, who are paid higher salaries due to the NBA’s rookie scale, those third- and fourth-year options are relatively team-friendly. So unless a player has fallen well short of his team’s expectations, it generally makes sense to lock in his salary for the following season at this point.

That was especially true this year of players with third-year options. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks notes (via Twitter), 2018 first-round picks went 30-for-30 on having those options picked up, a reflection of both the strength of that draft class and the value of controllable rookie scale contracts.

However, not every player with a 2020/21 team option had it exercised by Thursday’s deadline. The players who had those options declined will now be on track to reach unrestricted free agency during the summer of 2020, assuming they’re not waived before then.

Listed below are the players who had their options turned down, followed by the players whose options were exercised. If a player had his option picked up, his ’20/21 salary is now guaranteed and he won’t be eligible for free agency until at least 2021.

Declined options:

Note: These players will become unrestricted free agents in 2020.

Josh Jackson, Grizzlies (fourth year, $8,930,242)
Harry Giles, Kings (fourth year, $3,976,510)
Ante Zizic, Cavaliers (fourth year, $3,872,215)
Caleb Swanigan, Kings (fourth year, $3,665,787)

Exercised options:

Fourth year:

Note: These players will become eligible for rookie scale extensions on July 1, 2020. If they’re not extended, they’ll be on track for restricted free agency in 2021.

Markelle Fultz, Magic ($12,288,697)
Lonzo Ball, Pelicans ($11,003,782)
Jayson Tatum, Celtics ($9,897,120)
De’Aaron Fox, Kings ($8,099,627)
Jonathan Isaac, Magic ($7,362,566)
Lauri Markkanen, Bulls ($6,731,508)
Frank Ntilikina, Knicks ($6,176,578)
Dennis Smith Jr., Knicks ($5,686,677)
Zach Collins, Trail Blazers ($5,406,255)
Malik Monk, Hornets ($5,345,687)
Luke Kennard, Pistons ($5,273,826)
Donovan Mitchell, Jazz ($5,195,501)
Bam Adebayo, Heat ($5,115,492)
Justin Jackson, Mavericks ($5,029,650)
D.J. Wilson, Bucks ($4,548,280)
T.J. Leaf, Pacers ($4,326,825)
John Collins, Hawks ($4,137,302)
Terrance Ferguson, Thunder ($3,944,013)
Jarrett Allen, Nets ($3,909,902)
OG Anunoby, Raptors ($3,872,215)
Kyle Kuzma, Lakers ($3,562,178)
Tony Bradley, Jazz ($3,542,060)
Derrick White, Spurs ($3,516,284)
Josh Hart, Pelicans ($3,491,159)

Third year:

Note: Teams will have to make fourth-year option decisions for 2021/22 on these players by October 31, 2020.

Deandre Ayton, Suns ($10,018,200)
Marvin Bagley III, Kings ($8,963,640)
Luka Doncic, Mavericks ($8,049,360)
Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies ($7,257,360)
Trae Young, Hawks ($6,571,800)
Mohamed Bamba, Magic ($5,969,040)
Wendell Carter Jr., Bulls ($5,448,840)
Collin Sexton, Cavaliers ($4,991,880)
Kevin Knox, Knicks ($4,588,680)
Mikal Bridges, Suns ($4,359,000)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder ($4,141,320)
Miles Bridges, Hornets ($3,934,320)
Jerome Robinson, Clippers ($3,737,520)
Michael Porter Jr., Nuggets ($3,550,800)
Troy Brown, Wizards ($3,372,840)
Zhaire Smith, Sixers ($3,204,600)
Donte DiVincenzo, Bucks ($3,044,160)
Lonnie Walker, Spurs ($2,892,000)
Kevin Huerter, Hawks ($2,761,920)
Josh Okogie, Timberwolves ($2,651,040)
Grayson Allen, Grizzlies ($2,545,320)
Chandler Hutchison, Bulls ($2,443,440)
Aaron Holiday, Pacers ($2,345,640)
Anfernee Simons, Trail Blazers ($2,252,040)
Moritz Wagner, Wizards ($2,161,920)
Landry Shamet, Clippers ($2,090,040)
Robert Williams, Celtics ($2,029,920)
Jacob Evans, Warriors ($2,017,320)
Dzanan Musa, Nets ($2,002,800)
Omari Spellman, Warriors ($1,988,280)

For a team-by-team breakdown of this year’s rookie scale option decisions for the 2020/21 season, along with full stories on each decision, you can check out our tracker.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Top Performers On New Teams

October 31st, 2019 at 11:05pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The league saw more players change teams this offseason than ever before and not everyone on a new team is contributing equally. Let’s take a look at which players are adding the most value to their new squads (ranking via NBAMath’s TPA*).

Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
Aron Baynes, Phoenix Suns
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
Russell Westbrook, Houston Rockets
Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana Pacers
Al Horford, Philadelphia 76ers
Kemba Walker, Boston Celtics
Dwight Howard, Los Angeles Lakers
Delon Wright, Dallas Mavericks

*Entering Thursday night’s contest

As I wrote in my weekly notebook for NBA Math, there are some surprises on the list. Baynes is chief among them, as the center has found additional playing time thanks to the Deandre Ayton suspension. The 32-year-old was acquired by the Suns in what essentially amounted to a salary dump (Phoenix also netted a first-rounder from the deal) and the fact that he’s been able to step up has significantly contributed to the Suns’ hot start.

So this leads us to tonight’s community shootaround question: Now that we have over a week of action in the books, Which non-star player on a new team do you feel will contribute the most this year and which star (in a new uniform) will have the biggest impact?

Take to the comment section below to share your thoughts and opinions. We look forward to what you have to say!

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