Hoops Rumors Originals

Which Draft Prospect Should Go No. 1 Overall?

As we relayed in our primer, the 2024 NBA draft lottery takes place this afternoon at 2:00pm Central time. While this year’s lottery isn’t nearly as highly anticipated as last year’s, each team would still love the opportunity to land the No. 1 overall pick.

Unlike the 2023 lottery, in which every team was hoping to select French phenom Victor Wembanyama, who went on to win Rookie of the Year with the Spurs, the 2024 draft has no real consensus at the top.

For example, French wing Zaccharie Risacher is ranked No. 1 overall on ESPN’s top-100 list, but he’s No. 8 on Sam Vecenie of The Athletic’s big board, No. 9 on Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report’s board, and all the way down at No. 12 on Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer’s board.

Another French player, big man Alexandre Sarr, might be the closest thing to a lock to be selected in the top three. He’s ranked No. 2 by ESPN, No. 1 by Vecenie, No. 4 by Wasserman and No. 1 by O’Connor.

Serbian guard Nikola Topic is another prospect who appears in the top five of each list. He’s No. 5 at ESPN, No. 2 at The Athletic, No. 3 at Bleacher Report and No. 2 at The Ringer.

There’s significant variance on several other prospects. G League Ignite wing Ron Holland is ranked No. 10 by ESPN, No. 7 by Vecenie, and No. 6 by O’Connor, but he’s the top overall prospect on Wasserman’s board. UConn’s Stephon Castle is ranked No. 3 on Vecenie and O’Connor’s boards, but No. 9 on Wasserman’s and No. 10 on ESPN’s.

We want to know what you think. Which prospect do you think should be selected No. 1 overall in next month’s draft? Is it one of the players mentioned here, or someone else? Head to the comments to share your thoughts.

2024 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

The 2024 NBA draft lottery will take place on Sunday afternoon prior to Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Knicks and Pacers. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 2:00 pm Central time.

While the 2023 draft class featured surefire No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama – widely considered to be the best prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James – 2024’s class has no clear-cut frontrunner to be the first player off the board, with Alexandre Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, and a handful of other prospects expected to be in that mix.

That lack of clarity at the top of the draft will make the results of the 2024 lottery a little less meaningful than in past years, but it’s safe to assume that the teams with a shot at the No. 1 overall pick will still be hoping their logo is the one on the final card revealed by the NBA on Sunday afternoon.

Here’s what you need to know heading into Sunday’s lottery:


Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2024 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Washington Wizards
  3. Charlotte Hornets
  4. Portland Trail Blazers
  5. San Antonio Spurs
  6. Toronto Raptors
    • Note: The Spurs will receive this pick if it falls out of the top six (54.2%).
  7. Memphis Grizzlies
  8. Utah Jazz
    • Note: The Thunder will receive this pick if it falls out of the top 10 (0.5%).
  9. Houston Rockets
  10. Atlanta Hawks
  11. Chicago Bulls
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder
    • Note: The Rockets will receive this pick if it moves into the top four (7.2%).
  13. Sacramento Kings
  14. Portland Trail Blazers
    • Note: The Warriors will receive this pick if it moves into the top four (3.4%).

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.


Draft Lottery Odds:

The Pistons and Wizards have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those two teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

From there, the Hornets (13.3%), Trail Blazers (13.2%), Spurs (10.5%), Raptors (9.0%), Grizzlies (7.5%), Jazz (6%), and Rockets (6% across two picks) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall selection.

When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.

Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

Still, there haven’t been many major surprises in the years since the new format was implemented.

The Pelicans moved up from No. 7 in the lottery standings in 2019 to claim the first overall pick, which they used on Zion Williamson. Since then though, every team to win the draft lottery has been in the top three in the lottery standings.

Perhaps we’re due for a more significant shake-up in 2024. There’s a 18.5% chance that a team in the back half of the lottery (Nos. 8-14) wins the No. 1 pick. That works out to better than 1-in-6 odds, and this will be the sixth time the NBA has employed its revamped lottery format.

For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

For full details on the current lottery format, click here.


Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

The Raptors traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Spurs, but would keep that selection if it lands within the top six. There’s a 45.8% chance that will happen and a 54.2% chance it will slip to No. 7 or below and be sent to San Antonio. If Toronto retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2025 first-round pick (top-six protected) to the Spurs.

The Jazz would owe the Thunder their first-round pick if it lands outside of the top 10, but since Utah will enter Sunday at No. 8 in the lottery standings, there’s only a 0.5% chance of that happening. In all likelihood, the Jazz will instead owe their top-10 protected 2025 first-rounder to Oklahoma City.

The Rockets acquired the Nets‘ unprotected first-round pick, which will likely land at either No. 9 (50.7%) or No. 10 (25.9%). However, Houston’s own first-rounder has a 92.8% chance of being sent to the Thunder. It will probably be the No. 12 pick, but if it moves into the top four (7.2%), the Rockets would keep it.

Finally, the Warriors‘ first-round pick, which projects to be No. 14, will almost certainly be sent to the Trail Blazers. There’s a 96.6% chance it will be the 14th overall pick and be sent to Portland and just a 3.4% chance it will move into the top four and be retained by Golden State.


Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

  1. Detroit Pistons

    • On stage: Ausar Thompson
    • Lottery room: Jon Phelps (senior director of basketball strategy)
  2. Washington Wizards

  3. Charlotte Hornets

  4. Portland Trail Blazers

  5. San Antonio Spurs

    • On stage: Brian Wright (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Brandon Leibsohn (senior manager of basketball strategy and legal affairs)
  6. Toronto Raptors

    • On stage: Scottie Barnes
    • Lottery room: Dan Tolzman (assistant GM / VP of player personnel)
  7. Memphis Grizzlies

    • On stage: Tayshaun Prince (VP of basketball affairs)
    • Lottery room: Zach Kleiman (president of basketball operations)
  8. Utah Jazz

    • On stage: Thurl Bailey (former Jazz player / current Jazz broadcaster)
    • Lottery room: Danny Ainge (CEO)
  9. Houston Rockets

    • On stage: Ime Udoka (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Sam Strantz (associate legal counsel)
  10. Atlanta Hawks

    • On stage: Landry Fields (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Daniel Starkman (VP of player personnel)
  11. Chicago Bulls

  12. Oklahoma City Thunder
    • On stage: None
    • Lottery room: None
    • Note: The Thunder won’t have any representatives on hand because they don’t have a path to a top-four pick.
  13. Sacramento Kings

    • On stage: Keegan Murray
    • Lottery room: John Kehriotis (minority owner / executive board member)
  14. Golden State Warriors

Mid-Level, Room, Bi-Annual Exceptions Will Have New Uses This Offseason

Prior to the 2024 offseason, NBA teams had only been permitted to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, room exception, and bi-annual exception to sign free agents or to promote two-way players to standard contracts. Those exceptions could be split among multiple players, but they couldn’t be used for any other purpose besides giving a free agent – or a player being promoted from a two-way deal – a contract.

That will change this summer, as we previously detailed in our glossary entries on the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions. Beginning in July, teams with access to one or more of those exceptions will be permitted to use them to acquire players via trade or waiver claim. Simply using them to sign free agents will still be allowed, but the exceptions will expand to offer clubs more flexibility going forward.

A team using one of these exceptions to trade for a player won’t have to send out any matching salary, but will have to ensure that the incoming player’s contract fits into the exception, both in terms of his current salary and the number of years remaining on his contract.

For instance, the bi-annual exception projects to be worth $4,681,000 in 2024/25, with a maximum length of two years. That means it could be used to trade for a player like Heat forward Nikola Jovic, who will earn $2.46MM next season and $4.45MM in ’25/26. But it couldn’t be used to acquire Trayce Jackson-Davis — the Warriors big man won’t have a cap hit higher than $2.4MM on his current deal, but he’s under contract for three more seasons, exceeding the two-year BAE limit.

Because only the player’s current-year salary must fit within the exception’s limits, a player like Bulls wing Dalen Terry – who will earn $3.51MM in ’24/25 – could be acquired using the bi-annual exception this July, even though his $5.4MM salary for ’25/26 exceeds what a team using the BAE could pay a free agent signee in his second season.

Based on the NBA’s projection of a $141MM salary cap for 2024/25, the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which can run for up to four years, will be worth $12,859,000. The three-year room exception projects to start at $8,006,000.

Crucially, these new rules will not apply to the taxpayer mid-level exception. That two-year form of the mid-level, which projects to start at $5,183,000 in ’24/25, will still only be usable for free agent signings.

Finally, it’s worth noting that a team that uses either the non-taxpayer mid-level exception or bi-annual exception to accommodate a trade or waiver claim will be hard-capped for that season at the first tax apron, so it won’t be an option for teams that plan to surpass that apron.

Community Shootaround: Celtics/Cavaliers Series

No second-round series in the this year’s NBA playoffs is viewed as more one-sided than Celtics vs. Cavaliers. Ahead of Game 1 on Tuesday, betting site BetOnline.ag has made Boston a -2000 favorite to advance, listing Cleveland at +1000 to pull off the upset.

Based on what we’ve seen this season from Boston, those odds don’t come as a major surprise. At 64-18, the Celtics won seven more games than any other team in the NBA and 14 more than any Eastern Conference rival. They put up the third-best net rating in NBA history (+11.7), finishing with the league’s top offensive rating (122.2) and second-best defensive rating (110.6).

In Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics have a starting lineup full of two-way impact players, with no weak links on either end of the floor. And while they’re not exactly loaded with depth, the first few players off their bench – Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser – all made positive contributions this season.

The Celtics experienced a minor hiccup in round one, losing Game 2 at home to a Miami team that was missing star forward Jimmy Butler, but they bounced back admirably with dominant victories in Games 3, 4, and 5, holding the Heat to between 84 and 88 points in each of those contests to close out the series in convincing fashion.

The Cavaliers, on the other hand, had a middle-of-the-pack net rating this season (their +2.5 mark ranked 12th in the league), and their 48-34 record was buoyed by 17-1 run in January and February. They went 13-18 to close the regular season and then needed seven games to get past an Orlando team that outscored them overall.

Donovan Mitchell was excellent in that first-round series, averaging 28.7 points per game, but he’s still dealing with a leg injury and the Cavs struggled to get much secondary offense going against the Magic, with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Caris LeVert, and Max Strus all scoring well below their regular season averages.

It doesn’t help matters that the team has been missing starting center Jarrett Allen, who has been out for the last three games due to a rib contusion, and Dean Wade, a rotation forward who likely would have been playing regular minutes in the playoffs.

On paper, it looks like a one-sided matchup, but there are a few arguments against penciling in the Celtics for a sweep. For one, they’re missing Porzingis, who may remain on the shelf for the entire second round while he recovers from a calf strain. They can slot Horford into Porzingis’ starting spot, but he’s not as dynamic an offensive player, and it will mean relying more on reserves who barely played in the first round, such as Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman.

The Cavaliers also played the Celtics competitively during the regular season, with all three games between the two teams decided by single-digits. Cleveland lost a pair of contests in Boston, but beat the C’s at home in March. That victory should give the Cavs a little confidence entering Game 1, as should the fact that they were able to get a monkey off their back by winning a playoff series this spring after a disappointing showing in 2023 — that could remove some pressure entering round two.

The Celtics have their own playoff demons to reckon with. They lost the Eastern Conference finals to the Heat last spring as heavy favorites and are in championship-or-bust mode this year after falling short with rosters led by Tatum and Brown for the past several seasons. A second-round loss would be a disaster for the franchise, so if they hit another snag like they did in Game 2 vs. Miami last round, they’ll have to respond like they did against the Heat and not let the Cavs start to get comfortable.

We want to know what you think. Will the Celtics have any problems against the Cavs or do you expect Boston to advance without too much trouble? Is there any chance of a Cleveland upset? Are the Celtics bound for the NBA Finals?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions!

Community Shootaround: Thunder/Mavericks Series

As we noted when we discussed the Nuggets/Timberwolves showdown last week, that second-round battle between two Northwest rivals has the potential to be one of the very best series we get during these NBA playoffs. But the other Western Conference semifinal, which begins on Tuesday, shouldn’t be overlooked — Thunder vs. Mavericks is a marquee matchup in its own right.

The Mavericks finished the regular season as the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference, but they weren’t a typical five seed. Dallas came into its own during the second half of the season, particularly after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline to solidify the rotation.

From March 7 through April 10, when they locked up the No. 5 spot, no team had a better record (16-2) or a better defensive rating (106.0) than the Mavericks, and only Boston’s +13.0 net rating was better than Dallas’ +12.2 mark during that window. The new-look Mavs appeared to be a team peaking at the right time, and their first-round performance against the Clippers did little to dispel that notion.

With Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving leading the charge on offense and Washington, Gafford, Derrick Jones, and Dereck Lively among those playing key complementary roles, the Mavericks have arguably their most well-rounded roster during the Doncic era and appear capable of legitimate contention.

But the Mavs will miss frontcourt stalwart Maxi Kleber, who will be unavailable for the Western semifinals due to a shoulder injury. And even with a healthy Kleber, it’s unlikely Dallas would be favored to beat a Thunder team that earned the No. 1 seed in the West this season and then made a four-game sweep of the Pelicans look easy in round one.

The Thunder are the youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series, per ESPN (Twitter link) — everyone who plays regular rotation minutes for Oklahoma City is 25 years old or younger. It often takes some time for teams that young to learn how to win in the playoffs, but the Thunder should head into round two with plenty of confidence after dismantling New Orleans.

Oklahoma City has its own MVP finalist – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – to counter Doncic’s impact, and while none of the other players on the roster can match Irving’s impressive career résumé, forward Jalen Williams (19.1 PPG on .540/.327/.814 shooting during the regular season) and center Chet Holmgren (16.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.3 BPG) are rising stars, Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace are three-and-D standouts, Josh Giddey is a talented play-maker whose outside shot has become more reliable, and Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and Jaylin Williams provide legitimate depth.

The Mavericks enjoyed an impressive second-half run, but the Thunder were an elite team all season long, ranking second only to the Celtics in overall net rating (+7.3). Oklahoma City was also the only club besides Boston to rank in the NBA’s top five in both offensive rating (third) and defensive rating (fourth). And the Thunder will hold home-court advantage over the Mavs, which isn’t insignificant, given that OKC’s 33-8 home record during the season tied for the best mark in the West.

The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag view this series as the closest call of the four second-round matchups entering Game 1. Currently, the Thunder are slight favorites at -130, but the Mavs (+110) are almost even money to win the series.

We want to know what you think. Are you counting on the Thunder to continue their meteoric rise by booking a spot in the Western Conference finals, or is Dallas positioned to pull off the upset here? Do you expect the team that wins this series to make the NBA Finals or fall to the winner of Denver/Minnesota?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions!

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Maximum Salary

There are many NBA players technically on maximum-salary contracts, but most of those players didn’t earn identical salaries this season, making the league’s “maximum salary” something of a misnomer. While each NBA player has a maximum salary that he can earn in a given season, that number varies from player to player, with a handful of factors playing a part in determining the exact figure.

The primary factor in determining a player’s maximum salary is his years of service. If a player has been in the NBA for six seasons or fewer, he can earn up to 25% of the salary cap in the first year of his deal. Players with seven to nine years of experience can earn up to 30%, while veterans with 10 or more years in the NBA are eligible for up to 35% of the cap. In 2023/24, the salary cap was $136,021,000, meaning the maximum salaries are as follows:

Years in NBA Salary
0-6 $34,005,250
7-9 $40,806,300
10+ $47,607,350

The figures above explain why Fred VanVleet, who signed a maximum-salary contract with the Rockets last July following his seventh NBA season, earned a salary of $40,806,300 this season. But they don’t explain why Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns, who was also in that 7-9 year window and is on a max contract of his own, made just $36,016,200.

The reason Towns’ maximum salary is a few million shy of VanVleet’s is that those league-wide maximum salary figures only apply to the first year of a multiyear contract.

When a player signs a maximum contract, he can receive annual raises of up to either 8% or 5%, depending on whether he signs with his previous team or a new team. So by the third, fourth, or fifth year of his contract, he could be earning significantly more or less than his updated max for that season, depending on the rate the salary cap has been increasing and whether or not he has moved into a new “years of service” group.

Towns signed his first maximum-salary contract extension in 2018 and it went into effect in 2019/20, when he had fewer than six years of NBA experience. Although he has received annual 8% raises since then, those raises haven’t been enough to keep up with the annual cap growth and with his move into the 7-9 year window. As a result, he earned about $4.8MM less than his actual max in 2023/24, despite being on a “max contract.”

Towns signed a new contract extension in 2022 that will go into effect in 2024/25, so he’ll receive a major pay bump heading into next season and will comfortably surpass VanVleet’s annual earnings at that time.

Here are a couple more ways a player’s usual maximum salary can fluctuate:

  • A free agent’s maximum salary is always at least 105% of his previous salary. For example, Lakers star LeBron James earned $47,607,350 this past season. If he were to decline his player option for 2024/25 in order to sign a new contract, he’d be eligible to receive a starting salary of up to $49,987,718 (105% of this year’s salary), even though that figure projects to exceed 35% of the ’24/25 cap ($49,350,000).
  • In certain situations, players eligible for new contracts can earn the maximum salary for the level above the one they’d typically fall into. A player coming off his rookie scale contract can earn up to 30% of the cap instead of 25% if he meets certain performance criteria. A veteran can become eligible to earn up to 35% of the cap instead of 30% if he meets the same criteria, which are related to MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, or All-NBA honors.

Because a player can receive a raise of up to 40% in the first year of a veteran extension, there are some instances when a player who signs an extension not necessarily designed to be a maximum-salary contract sees the first-year salary in his new deal adjusted downward based on that year’s cap. Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard is one example. His new extension, which will begin in 2024/25, calls for a first-year salary of $52,368,085, which is a raise in the neighborhood of 15% on this season’s $45,640,084 salary.

However, because next year’s league-wide maximum salary for players with 10+ years of NBA experience projects to be $49,350,000 (which would be more than a 5% raise for Leonard), he can’t exceed that figure. That $49.35MM figure will be the value of his 2024/25 salary if the cap comes in at $141MM, as estimated. And Kawhi’s three-year extension, which was originally said to be worth over $152MM, will actually end up closer to $149MM.

A player who signs a maximum-salary contract can receive a trade kicker as part of his deal, but he can’t cash in on that bonus for any amount beyond his maximum salary in a given league year. For instance, Trae Young‘s max-salary contract with the Hawks features a 15% trade kicker, but if he had been traded this season, he wouldn’t have been eligible to receive that bonus, since he was already earning his maximum salary of $40,064,220.

A player on a maximum-salary deal that includes a trade kicker can potentially cash in on that bonus if he’s dealt later in that contract. For example, Brandon Ingram is on a max contract, but – like Towns – was earning well below his actual max in 2023/24, year four of that five-year deal. If he had been moved by the Pelicans this season, he would’ve been eligible to take advantage of his trade kicker. That remains true for Ingram going forward.

A maximum-salary player whose team finishes the season below the minimum salary floor isn’t eligible to receive a share when the team distributes that money to its players, since his max salary for that year can’t be exceeded.

The current figures for maximum salaries in 2024/25 are as follows, based on the NBA’s projection of a $141MM salary cap:

Years in NBA Salary
0-6 $35,250,000
7-9 $42,300,000
10+ $49,350,000

These figures will apply to players who previously signed maximum salary extensions that will go into effect in ’24/25, including Towns, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, LaMelo Ball, and Jaylen Brown.


Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were previously published by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

Poll: Who Will Win Cavaliers/Magic Game 7?

Of the NBA’s eight first-round playoff series this spring, a pair were four-game sweeps, two more wrapped up in five games, and three others took six games to decide a winner. That leaves a single Game 7 in round one: The Cavaliers will host the Magic in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon to determine the last of the eight teams that will advance to the conference semifinals.

Sunday’s Game 7 looms larger for the Cavaliers than it does for Orlando. Cleveland won 51 games and finished as a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference a year ago, then was quickly dispatched from the postseason by the Knicks in just five games. Another first-round exit this spring as the higher seed, especially against a relatively inexperienced Magic squad, would likely result in major offseason changes in Cleveland.

As Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (subscription required) writes, the pressure will be on head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, who figures to find himself on the hot seat if the Cavaliers lose Game 7 at home. For his part, Bickerstaff sounds relatively confident that his club will come through.

“We’ll be ready for the moment,” Bickerstaff said. “Our guys have been really good at home, and we don’t expect that to change.”

Even more crucially, Donovan Mitchell‘s future in Cleveland could hinge on how Game 7 plays out, Fedor notes. Mitchell is only under contract for one more guaranteed season after this one — he’ll be offered an extension this summer, but if he’s not enthusiastic about the Cavs’ ability to contend for a championship going forward, he may not be inclined to accept a new long-term deal from the team.

The good news for the Cavaliers is that Game 7 will be played at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, where they’re 3-0 this series. But after commanding victories in Games 1 and 2, Cleveland’s home-court advantage didn’t look like quite as significant a factor in Game 5’s win, which the club pulled out by a single point.

The Cavs are also dealing with injury concerns on multiple fronts. Rotation forward Dean Wade (knee) has missed the entire postseason, while Jarrett Allen (rib) has been sidelined for the past two games. Mitchell (knee) and Evan Mobley (ankle) also seemed to be playing through pain in Game 6 — both players finished the game, though Mobley (three points, six rebounds) was far less effective than Mitchell (50 points), especially in the second half.

While the Magic will certainly go all-out to win Game 7, their coaches and players are facing far less pressure entering the deciding game of their first-round series. Few league observers even expected Orlando to still be alive at this point in the season, so a spot in the second round would exceed all expectations. No one’s job is on the line based on Sunday’s outcome.

Still, the Magic have shown in the first six games of this series that they’re a talented enough defensive team to pull off this upset. Yes, Mitchell scored 50 points in Game 6, and Darius Garland contributed 21 more, but the rest of the Cavs combined for just 25 points on 10-of-33 (30.3%) shooting, and head coach Jamahl Mosley has made some savvy adjustments that helped his team win three of the last four games.

Orlando doesn’t have a ton of offensive firepower, but in Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs, the team has just enough scoring to stick with Cleveland thanks to its play on defense. Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs combined for 75 of Orlando’s 103 points in Game 6, which has been a common theme over the course of the series — no other Magic player is averaging over 7.0 points per contest.

We want to know what you think. Will the Cavaliers (3.5-point favorites, according to BetOnline.ag) hang on at home and avoid disaster? Or will the upstart Magic book a second-round date with the top-ranked Celtics?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to make your predictions!

Community Shootaround: Knicks/Pacers Series

The Knicks and Pacers closed out their respective first-round series on Thursday, securing their spots in the Eastern Conference semifinals and lining up a playoff matchup straight out of the 1990s.

As Wheat Hotchkiss of Pacers.com details, back in the days of Patrick Ewing and Reggie Miller, a New York/Indiana series was something of an annual tradition in the Eastern Conference, with the two teams meeting in six out of eight postseasons from 1993-2000. Since then, the clubs have squared off just once in the playoffs – in the 2013 Eastern Conference semifinals – but the current iterations of the Knicks and Pacers are well positioned to rekindle that old rivalry.

Both teams are led by point guards likely to earn their first All-NBA nods this spring — Jalen Brunson for the Knicks and Tyrese Haliburton for the Pacers. While Haliburton is more of a distributor, having led the NBA with 10.9 assists per game during the regular season, Brunson has had to take on a far greater scoring load since Julius Randle suffered a shoulder injury in January. He averaged 31.5 points per game in 33 regular season contests after Randle went down and leads all playoff scorers with 35.5 PPG.

The Pacers, who finished the regular season with the NBA’s second-best offensive rating (120.5) have gotten much of their scoring this postseason from their frontcourt, with Pascal Siakam (22.3 PPG) and Myles Turner (19.2 PPG) leading the way while Obi Toppin (12.3 PPG) contributes off the bench. Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and T.J. McConnell, meanwhile, have given the team important minutes in the backcourt and on the wing alongside Haliburton.

With Randle unavailable, the Knicks have leaned heavily on wings Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Donte DiVincenzo for three-and-D production to complement Brunson, with Miles McBride, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Mitchell Robinson also playing key roles.

Indiana won the season series between the two teams by a 2-1 margin, but the Knicks have home-court advantage and will enter round two as heavy favorites (-265 on BetOnline.ag). As good as the Pacers were offensively during the season, New York was nearly as effective – their 117.3 offensive rating ranked seventh in the league – and the Knicks were the far stouter team on the other end of the court, ranking ninth with a 112.4 defensive rating. Indiana placed 24th at 117.6.

Several Pacers have appeared in the playoffs before – including Siakam, who played a major role for the Raptors’ championship team in 2019 – but it’s Haliburton’s first postseason and this Knicks team played into the second round a year ago, so New York probably holds the slight playoff experience edge.

The Knicks may also be more comfortable playing at a playoff pace — their regular season mark of 95.96 possessions per 48 minutes was the slowest in the NBA, and they’ve slowed things down even further during the postseason (91.09). The Pacers, conversely, ranked second in the league with a 102.16 regular season pace and have had to adjust to a more deliberate style in the postseason — their first-round mark was just 92.89.

We want to know what you think. Are you expecting the Knicks to advance to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2000, or will the Pacers continue their unlikely run with another series victory? Assuming the Celtics are the other team in the Eastern finals, will the winner of this series have a legitimate shot to topple Boston and make the NBA Finals?

Head to the comment section to share your thoughts and predictions!

Community Shootaround: Nuggets/Timberwolves Series

Only one second-round matchup has been set so far in these NBA playoffs, but it looks like it has the potential to be one of the very best postseason series of 2024. The defending-champion Nuggets will face the Timberwolves in the Western Conference semifinals beginning on Saturday.

Denver had a target on its back entering this season after winning a title in 2023, but the team responded admirably, tying for the West’s best record (57-25) and then quickly dispatching LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers in round one.

The Nuggets are led by the NBA’s probable 2024 MVP (Nikola Jokic), along with one of the league’s best clutch playoff performers (Jamal Murray). They also have a series of role players, led by Aaron GordonKentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Michael Porter Jr., who complement their stars perfectly. They’re widely considered the favorites to come out of the West, with many NBA fans and experts viewing them as a good bet to repeat as champions.

But the Timberwolves showed in their first-round sweep of Phoenix that they’re a legitimate threat to make a deep playoff run of their own this spring.

Minnesota, which had the NBA’s No. 1 defensive rating during the regular season, wasn’t quite as dominant on that end of the floor against Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and the Suns, but they made up for it by raising their offensive game to new heights — the Wolves’ 123.2 offensive rating in round one easily ranks first among the 16 playoff teams.

Three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and four-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns own the most award hardware of any Minnesota players, but it’s rising star Anthony Edwards who is raising the team’s ceiling and gives the Wolves a chance to be more competitive than they were in the first round against Denver a year ago.

Just 22 years old, Edwards averaged 31.0 points per game on .512/.438/.839 shooting against Phoenix and has fully embraced the postseason stage, repeatedly directing trash talk toward Durant and the Suns. In Edwards, the Wolves have a player whom they can increasingly rely on to get them a basket in clutch moments, which is crucial in the playoffs.

And like Denver, the Wolves have no shortage of talented role players, with Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker leading the defense on the perimeter, Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid providing scoring off the bench, and veteran point guard Mike Conley serving as a stabilizing force on both ends of the floor.

It’s a fascinating intra-divisional matchup that should make for a terrific series. Sports betting site BetOnline.ag considers the Nuggets (-195) the solid favorites, but the Wolves’ resounding first-round victory over Phoenix signaled that this roster is built for real postseason success.

We want to know what you think. Are you picking Denver to advance or do you think Minnesota can pull off the upset? Do you expect the winner of this series to represent the West in the NBA Finals, or do you anticipate seeing the Thunder, Mavericks, or Clippers come out of the conference?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

Hoops Rumors Glossary: Minimum Salary Exception

The minimum salary exception is something of a last resort for capped-out teams looking to add players, as well as for players seeking NBA contracts, but it’s one of the most commonly used cap exceptions.

As its name suggests, the minimum salary exception allows an over-the-cap team to sign a player to a minimum-salary deal. A contract signed using the minimum salary exception can be a one- or two-year deal, but can’t cover more than two seasons.

Teams can use the exception multiple times in a league year, giving clubs that have used all of their cap room and other exceptions an avenue to fill out their rosters. The exception also accommodates teams’ acquisitions of minimum-salary players via trade, as players signed via the minimum salary exception don’t count as incoming salary for salary-matching purposes.

Players are entitled to varying minimum salaries based on how long they’ve been in the NBA. In 2023/24, a player with no prior NBA experience was eligible for a $1,119,563 minimum salary, while a player with 10 or more years of experience was eligible for $3,196,448.

[RELATED: NBA Minimum Salaries For 2023/24]

Under the NBA’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement, the minimum salary is adjusted each season to reflect the year-to-year salary cap change. If the cap increases by 5%, so will minimum salaries. If the cap doesn’t change from one season to the next, neither will minimum salaries.

Our minimum-salary estimates for 2024/25, based on a projected salary cap of $141MM, can be found right here.

There’s a wide disparity between the minimum salary for rookies and for long-tenured players, with a minimum-salary veteran of 10+ seasons earning nearly three times as much as a rookie making the minimum next season. The NBA doesn’t want those pricier deals to discourage clubs from signing veterans, however, so the league reimburses teams for a portion of a minimum-salary player’s cost if he has three or more years of experience, as long as the contract is a one-year deal.

For example, when the Bucks signed 11-year veteran Jae Crowder to a one-year pact for 2023/24 using the minimum salary exception, he locked in a salary of $3,196,448, but the team’s cap hit was just $2,019,706, equivalent to the minimum salary for a player with two years of NBA experience. The league will reimburse the Bucks for the difference between Crowder’s salary and cap hit ($1,176,742).

Many salary cap exceptions can only be used once each season. When a team uses its full mid-level exception to sign one or more players, the club can no longer use that exception until the following league year. Unlike the mid-level and other cap exceptions though, the minimum salary exception can be used any number of times in a single season.

The Suns, for instance, used the minimum salary exception to sign Eric Gordon, Damion Lee, Keita Bates-Diop, Drew Eubanks, Chimezie Metu, Bol Bol, and Yuta Watanabe last offseason. They also used it during the season to add Thaddeus Young and Isaiah Thomas on rest-of-season contracts.

While many exceptions begin to prorate midway through the regular season, the minimum salary exception prorates beginning after opening night. If a season is 174 days long and a player signs a minimum-salary deal after 25 days have passed, he would only be paid for 149 days.

An extreme example of a prorated minimum salary occurred when the Clippers signed Kai Jones to a minimum-salary contract on the final day of the 2023/24 season. Last year’s rookie minimum for a player like Jones – with two years of NBA experience – was $2,019,706, so he received 1/174th of that amount: $11,608.

In cases where a veteran player signs a one-year contract using the minimum salary exception midway through a season, his cap hit is prorated in the same way that his salary is.

When Young signed with the Suns on February 20, 2024, there were 55 days left in the ’23/24 season. He earned a rest-of-season salary of $1,010,371 (55/174ths of his full-season minimum of $3,196,448), while his cap hit was $638,413 (55/174ths of $2,019,706, the minimum salary for a player with two years of experience).

When a player signs a two-year contract using the minimum salary exception, his second-year salary is locked in as part of that agreement. Depending on the amount of the second-year cap increase, he may end up making more or less than the amount he would have earned if he’d instead signed two consecutive one-year minimum contracts.

On a two-year, minimum-salary deal, the player’s second-year salary is worth 105% of the first-year minimum for a player with the same years of NBA experience.

For example, a rookie signing a two-year minimum-salary deal in 2023/24 would be assured of $1,891,857 in ’24/25, once he has one year of NBA experience under his belt — that’s 5% more than the minimum for a player with one year of NBA experience in ’23/24 ($1,801,769).

Finally, it’s worth noting that the minimum salary exception can be used to claim a player off waivers in the same way that it can be used to trade for a player. However, in the case of both trades and waiver claims, a minimum-salary player can’t be acquired using the minimum salary exception if his contract is for more than two years or if his salary exceeded the minimum in any previous year of the contract.

When the Wizards waived Isaiah Livers in April, he was earning a minimum salary for 2023/24 ($1,836,096). But Livers was in the third year of his contract and had earned more than the minimum in his first season of that deal — both of those factors made him ineligible to be claimed using the minimum salary exception, so if a team had wanted to claim him, it would have needed to use cap room or a trade exception.

Here are a few more notes on the minimum salary exception:

  • Players signed using the minimum salary exception are eligible for trade bonuses, but not incentive bonuses. A minimum-salary player with a trade bonus cannot be acquired in a trade using the minimum salary exception unless he waives that bonus.
  • When a minimum-salary player is traded during the season, any reimbursement from the NBA is split between his two teams. It’s prorated based on the number of days he spends with each club.
  • If a minimum-salary player with a non-guaranteed salary is waived before he exceeds the minimum for a two-year veteran, his team won’t be reimbursed for any portion of his salary.
  • Every 10-day contract is worth a prorated minimum salary. The NBA also reimburses teams for a portion of the 10-day minimum salary for veterans with three or more years of experience.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and the Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.