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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Qualifying Offer

April 29th, 2024 at 4:08pm CST by Luke Adams

Players eligible for restricted free agency don’t become restricted free agents by default. In order to make a player a restricted free agent, a team must extend a qualifying offer to him — a player who doesn’t receive one becomes an unrestricted free agent instead.

The qualifying offer, which is essentially just a one-year contract offer, varies in amount depending on a player’s service time and previous contract status.

If a player reaches free agency with three or fewer years of NBA service time under his belt, his qualifying offer is worth whichever of the following amounts is greater:

  • 135% of his prior salary; or 125% of his prior salary, if he signed his contract before the 2023/24 league year
  • His minimum salary, plus $200K.

For instance, after earning $2,019,706 this season, Spurs big man Sandro Mamukelashvili projects to have a minimum salary worth $2,168,944 in 2024/25. Adding $200K to that figure works out to $2,368,944, whereas 135% of his prior salary is $2,726,603. His qualifying offer will be worth the greater amount ($2,726,603).

Let’s use Lakers guard Max Christie as another example — he earned a $1,719,864 salary in 2023/24. Unlike Mamukelashvili, Christie signed his contract prior to this season, so to determine his qualifying offer, we’d start by calculating 125% of that amount, which works out to $2,149,830. On the other hand, his projected minimum salary ($2,093,637) plus $200K would be $2,293,637.

Christie’s projected minimum could vary a little depending on where exactly the 2024/25 salary cap ends up, but it’s a safe bet his QO will be determined based on that amount rather rather than the 125% figure.

The qualifying offer for a former first-round pick coming off his rookie scale contract is determined by his draft position. Under the previous CBA, the qualifying offer for a first overall pick was 130% of his fourth-year salary, while for a 30th overall pick it was 150% of his previous salary — QOs for the rest of the first-rounders fall somewhere in between. Those numbers will increase to 140% and 160%, respectively, under the new CBA, beginning when the 2023 draft class reaches restricted free agency in 2027.

The full first-round scale for the draft class of 2020, whose first-rounders will be hitting free agency this summer, can be found here, courtesy of RealGM.

A wrinkle in the Collective Bargaining Agreement complicates matters for some RFAs-to-be, since a player’s previous usage can impact the amount of his qualifying offer. Certain players who meet – or fail to meet – the “starter criteria,” which we break down in a separate glossary entry, become eligible for higher or lower qualifying offers. Here’s how the starter criteria affects QOs:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
    • Note: In 2024, the value of this QO will be $7,744,600.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
    • Note: In 2024, the value of this QO will be $8,486,620.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.
    • Note: In 2024, the value of this QO will be $5,216,324.

Pistons center James Wiseman is one example of a player who falls into the first group, since he didn’t meet the starter criteria this year. The No. 2 overall pick in 2020, Wiseman will be eligible this offseason for a QO worth $7,744,600 instead of $15,815,870.

Conversely, Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley (a former No. 25 overall pick) met the starter criteria and will now be eligible for a QO worth $8,486,620 instead of $6,128,004.

[RELATED: How Starter Criteria Will Impact QOs For Potential 2024 RFAs]

A qualifying offer is designed to give a player’s team the right of first refusal. Because the qualifying offer acts as the first formal contract offer a free agent receives, his team then receives the option to match any offer sheet the player signs with another club.

A player can also accept his qualifying offer, if he so chooses. He then plays the following season on a one-year contract worth the amount of the QO, and becomes an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, assuming he has at least four years of NBA experience. A player can go this route if he wants to hit unrestricted free agency as early as possible, or if he feels like the QO is the best offer he’ll receive. Accepting the qualifying offer also gives a player the right to veto trades for the season.

Hornets forward Miles Bridges was the most noteworthy restricted free agent to accept his qualifying offer during the 2023 offseason. As a result, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2024.

Here are a few more details related to qualifying offers:

  • A team that issues a qualifying offer can unilaterally withdraw that offer anytime up until July 13.
  • A player who receives a qualifying offer has a deadline of October 1 to accept it. He and the team can agree to extend that deadline.
  • A different set of rules applies to players coming off two-way contracts. For most of those players, the qualifying offer would be equivalent to a one-year, two-way salary, with a small portion (known as the “maximum two-way protection amount”) guaranteed. For 2024/25, that partial guarantee will be worth approximately $78K.
  • A player who is coming off a two-year, two-way deal; has already been on two-way deals with his current team for at least two seasons; or has accumulated four years of NBA service would be eligible for a qualifying offer equivalent to a standard, minimum-salary NBA contract, with a small portion (known as the “two-way QO protection amount”) guaranteed. For 2024/25, that partial guarantee projects to be worth approximately $93K.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years.

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2024 NBA Head Coaching Search Tracker

April 27th, 2024 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

With another regular season in the books, multiple teams around the NBA are making head coaching changes in advance of the 2024/25 campaign.

In the space below, we’ll provide regular updates on the head coaching searches for each club that has yet to give anyone the permanent title. Some of these searches could extend well into the offseason, so be sure to check back often for the latest updates.

You’ll be able to access this page anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu.

Updated 11-6-24 (1:30pm CT)

Active Searches

None

Completed Searches

Brooklyn Nets

  • New coach:
    • Jordi Fernandez (story)
  • Previous coach:
    • Kevin Ollie (interim)
  • Other finalists:
    • Former NBA head coach Mike Budenholzer (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (story)
  • Also reportedly considered:
    • Pelicans assistant James Borrego (story)
    • Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant (story)
    • Nets interim head coach Kevin Ollie (story)
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)

After parting ways with former head coach Jacque Vaughn in February, the Nets launched their head coaching search well before the regular season ended, though they did so in relative secrecy. While they reportedly cast a wide net, considering – and interviewing – many candidates, there were few leaks until word broke on April 13 that it was down to Fernandez, Budenholzer, and Young.

With Budenholzer’s contract demands said to be quite high in terms of both years and dollars, the Nets turned to a first-time NBA head coach, picking Fernandez over Young. While Fernandez has never led an NBA team, he’s not entirely without head coaching experience — he coached the Canton Charge in the G League from 2014-16 and is the current leader of the Canadian national team, which won bronze at the 2023 FIBA World Cup.

Nets general manager Sean Marks has gone through several head coaches during his tenure in Brooklyn, but this was his most exhaustive search process since he hired Kenny Atkinson back in 2016. Atkinson took over a rebuilding club and got them back to the postseason in his third season. With more foundational pieces in place this time around, the Nets are hoping Fernandez can turn things around even faster.

Charlotte Hornets

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Reportedly interviewed:
    • Nuggets assistant David Adelman (story)
    • King assistant Jordi Fernandez (interviewed before being hired by Nets)
    • Kings’ G League head coach Lindsey Harding (story)
    • Rockets assistant Royal Ivey (story)
    • Clippers assistant Jay Larranaga (story)
    • Lakers assistant Jordan Ott (story)
    • ESPN analyst J.J. Redick (story)
    • Former Vanderbilt coach Jerry Stackhouse (story)
    • Suns assistant Kevin Young (interviewed before being hired by BYU)
  • Also reportedly considered:
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
    • Jazz assistant Lamar Skeeter (story)

The Hornets were able to get a head start on their head coaching search when Clifford announced during the first week of April that he would be stepping down from his role at season’s end. The team has changed ownership and revamped its front office since Clifford was hired in 2022, so this was new management’s first opportunity to hire a head coach.

The Hornets ultimately chose a familiar face. After being mentioned most frequently as the frontrunner for the job, Celtics assistant Charles Lee agreed to a four-year deal to become Charlotte’s new head coach. Lee, who has received consideration from several teams seeking head coaches in recent years, was an assistant with the Hawks from 2014-18. New Hornets head of basketball operations Jeff Peterson was in Atlanta’s front office at the time, while co-owner Rick Schnall was a minority stakeholder in the Hawks beginning in 2015.

Charlotte, which is building around young players like LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, was said to be seeking a first-time head coach who specializes in player development to lead its young squad. Lee, 39, fits that bill and also has some championship experience under his belt, having served as an assistant with the Bucks during their 2021 championship run.

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Reportedly interviewed:
    • Nuggets assistant David Adelman (story)
    • Pelicans assistant James Borrego (story)
    • Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant (story)
    • Timberwolves assistant Micah Nori (story)
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
  • Also reportedly considered:
    • Mavericks assistant Alex Jensen (story)
    • Bucks assistant Dave Joerger (story)
    • Former NBA head coach Terry Stotts (story)

Bickerstaff led the Cavaliers to a 48-win season and the franchise’s first playoff series win without LeBron James since 1993. It wasn’t enough to save his job though, with a report following Cleveland’s elimination from the postseason indicating that Donovan Mitchell and other Cavs players didn’t necessarily have full confidence in the veteran coach.

The Cavaliers were said to be seeking a “fresh approach” as they sought to hire a new head coach capable of taking the team deeper into the postseason. Atkinson and Borrego were each identified as the presumed favorite during the process, and it sounded as if Cleveland’s decision came down to the two former head coaches, with Atkinson winning out and receiving a five-year contract.

Atkinson, who previously coached Cavaliers like Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert in Brooklyn, was the choice in part because Cleveland believes he’s the best candidate to bring out the best in rising young star Evan Mobley. He’ll get that opportunity after spending the past three years as Steve Kerr‘s top assistant in Golden State.

Detroit Pistons

  • New coach:
    • J.B. Bickerstaff (story)
  • Previous coach:
  • Reportedly interviewed:
    • Timberwolves assistant Micah Nori (story)
    • Mavericks assistant Sean Sweeney (story)
  • Also reportedly considered:
    • Former Pistons assistant Jerome Allen (story)
    • Pelicans assistant James Borrego (withdrew from consideration)
    • Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant (story)
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
    • Former Nets assistant Will Weaver (story)

It was just one year ago that Williams signed a six-year, $78.5MM deal that was the most lucrative contract for a head coach in NBA history. After a dismal season that saw the Pistons go 14-68 and set a new single-season record for longest losing streak (28 games), Detroit replaced Troy Weaver with Trajan Langdon as the new head of basketball operations, then decided on a fresh start on the sidelines as well, eating the estimated $65MM remaining on Williams’ contract.

As last season’s record shows, the Pistons aren’t close to contending, so they didn’t need to target a veteran coach with championship experience. While they’d like to take a step forward sooner rather than later, player development remains the priority in Detroit.

That made Bickerstaff a logical choice. While he was let go in Cleveland in part due to the team’s modest postseason results over the last two years, he played a key role in the developmental process that made Darius Garland and Evan Mobley into an All-Star guard and All-Defensive big man, respectively, and in turning the Cavaliers from a lottery team into a solid playoff club.

Bickerstaff reportedly received a five-year deal from the Pistons that includes four guaranteed seasons.

Los Angeles Lakers

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
  • Reportedly interviewed:
    • Nuggets assistant David Adelman (story)
    • Pelicans assistant James Borrego (story)
    • Celtics assistant Sam Cassell (story)
    • Timberwolves assistant Micah Nori (story)
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
  • Also reportedly considered:
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Former NBA head coach Mike Budenholzer (hired by Suns)
    • UConn head coach Dan Hurley (story)
    • Celtics assistant Charles Lee (hired by Hornets)
    • Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue (extended by Clippers)
    • Mavericks assistant Sean Sweeney (story)

Shortly after the Lakers’ season ended, a pair of reports from ESPN and The Athletic classified Ham’s job as being in serious danger and pointed to several specific reasons why. It was clear at that point that Ham wasn’t going to be back in his role as head coach, but the team took three more days to make it official.

Seeking a new head coach to lead a team they still feel is capable of contending, the Lakers reportedly had serious interest in the guy coaching their cross-town rivals. However, the Clippers were said to be highly motivated to retain Lue and backed that up by signing him to a long-term extension.

With Lue off the table, the Lakers cast a wide net and took their time as they consider options ranging from former head coaches (such as Atkinson and Borrego) to veteran assistants (like Adelman, Cassell, and Quinn, among others) to total newcomers (Redick). They reportedly want a “grinder” capable of challenging Lakers players and holding them accountable.

The search took an unexpected turn when a report stated that the Lakers’ top target was actually Hurley, whom L.A. attempted to lure away from the college ranks with a six-year, $70MM deal. However, Hurley passed on that offer in favor of seeking a third consecutive national title at UConn, sending the Lakers back to the drawing board. They ultimately circled back to Redick, who has no coaching experience at the NBA level, agreeing to a four-year, $32MM deal with the ESPN analyst.

Although Redick is LeBron James‘ podcast co-host, reports stated that the Lakers star wasn’t involved in the search and that management was infatuated by Redick’s potential as a coach, given his “basketball IQ” and his “ability to connect with players.” The goal will be to surround him with an experienced coaching staff to help accelerate his learning curve.

Phoenix Suns

  • New coach:
    • Mike Budenholzer (story)
  • Previous coach:

In his first season as the head coach in Phoenix, Vogel led the Suns to a 49-33 record and a top-six seed in a competitive Western Conference. However, the club was quickly eliminated from the playoffs, failing to win a single game against the Timberwolves in the first round.

With little flexibility to make major moves affecting their roster this offseason, the Suns decided to make a head coaching change, dismissing Vogel just one season into the five-year, $31MM contract he signed with the franchise last spring. He’ll be replaced by Budenholzer, another veteran coach with a championship on his résumé.

Word broke that the Suns had decided on Budenholzer less than 24 hours after Vogel was fired, so it’s clear the team had a specific candidate in mind and didn’t feel the need to conduct a lengthy search. There was no indication that Phoenix seriously considered anyone else besides the former Bucks head coach, who reportedly agreed to a five-year contract worth in excess of $50MM.

Washington Wizards

  • New coach:
  • Previous coach:
    • Brian Keefe (interim); replaced Wes Unseld Jr. during season (story)
  • Reportedly interviewed:
    • Spurs assistant Mitch Johnson (story)
  • Also reportedly considered:
    • Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson (story)
    • Rockets assistant Royal Ivey (story)
    • Heat assistant Chris Quinn (story)
    • Mavericks assistant Sean Sweeney (story)

The Wizards technically made their head coaching change in January, when they removed Unseld from his position and had him transition into a front office role. Keefe was promoted from assistant coach to head coach at that time and was ultimately named Unseld’s permanent replacement in May.

It’s a little surprising that Washington’s new front office, led by president Michael Winger and general manager Will Dawkins, ultimately ended up landing on the in-house option who posted an 8-31 record after taking over for Unseld. But Keefe improved the defense in the second half and is known as a player development specialist, which was the priority for a rebuilding Wizards club.

It’s unclear whether any other candidates received serious consideration for the job. While a May 10 story indicated that interviews would begin soon, there were few leaks throughout the process and little indication of which other contenders received interviews.

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Players Eligible For Rookie Scale Extensions In 2024

April 26th, 2024 at 10:04am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA’s 2024/25 league year begins this summer, players eligible for free agency will be able to begin negotiating and reaching contract agreements with suitors. In addition to those free agents, another group of players will also become eligible to sign new deals.

For players who are entering the fourth and final year of their rookie scale contracts, the first day of the new league year (July 1) is the first day they can agree to rookie scale extensions. Those players, who were all 2021 first-round selections, will have until October 21 – the day before the 2024/25 regular season starts – to finalize long-term agreements with their current teams.

Players eligible for rookie scale extensions can sign new deals that run for up to five years, with those contracts taking effect beginning in 2025/26. If they don’t sign extensions during the coming offseason, those players will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2025.

Fourteen players who were eligible for rookie scale extensions during the 2023 offseason signed new deals. That total easily surpassed the previous record of 11 (set in 2021 and matched in 2022), and continued a recent trend — we’ve seen an uptick in rookie extensions during the last several offseasons as more teams look to lock up their promising young players in advance of free agency.

We should expect several more rookie scale extensions to be signed between July and October of this year.

Here are the players who will be eligible to sign rookie scale extensions during the 2024 offseason:

The following players were selected in the first round of the 2020 draft along with the players listed above. However, they aren’t eligible for rookie scale extensions this year for the reasons noted:

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NBA Team Option Decisions For 2024/25

April 24th, 2024 at 11:23am CST by Luke Adams

Having already created a space to track this offseason’s player option decisions, we’re turning our attention today to team options. Over the next couple months, we’ll use the space below to keep tabs on all the team options for 2024/25, making note of whether they’re exercised or declined.

True team options are different than non-guaranteed salaries, which aren’t listed in the space below. Non-guaranteed salaries are less restrictive and provide a little more flexibility than team options, which clubs must act upon by a specific date (June 29) each year.

However, team options can be useful at the end of a contract, since turning down that option allows the team to retain some form of Bird rights on the player — waiving a player with a non-guaranteed salary doesn’t present that same opportunity. Additionally, a handful of contracts still don’t become fully guaranteed once an option is picked up, giving teams an extra level of flexibility.

The list below doesn’t include rookie scale team options for 2024/25, since those third- and fourth-year options function differently than team options on standard veteran contracts. Those ’24/25 rookie scale team option decisions were made during the 2023 offseason, and can be found here.

The standard team options for 2024/25 are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the fall to note the latest decisions as they’re reported and/or announced.

Unless otherwise indicated, a player’s salary will become guaranteed once his team option is exercised.

Atlanta Hawks

  • Garrison Mathews ($2,230,253): Exercised
    • Note: If Mathews’ option is exercised, his salary would remain non-guaranteed until June 29.

Boston Celtics

Charlotte Hornets

  • JT Thor ($1,988,598): Declined
    • Note: If Thor’s option is exercised, his salary would remain non-guaranteed.

Denver Nuggets

Detroit Pistons

Houston Rockets

Los Angeles Clippers

  • Kai Jones ($2,196,970): Declined
    • Note: If Jones’ option is exercised, his salary would remain non-guaranteed.

Memphis Grizzlies

New Orleans Pelicans

New York Knicks

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Lindy Waters ($2,196,970): Exercised
    • Note: Waters has been traded to the Warriors as part of his opt-in.
  • Isaiah Joe ($2,164,993): Declined
    • Note: If Joe’s option is exercised, his salary would remain non-guaranteed.
  • Aaron Wiggins ($1,988,598): Declined
    • Note: If Wiggins’ option is exercised, his salary would remain non-guaranteed.

Orlando Magic

Philadelphia 76ers

  • Jeff Dowtin ($2,196,970): Declined
    • Note: If Dowtin’s option is exercised, his salary would remain non-guaranteed.

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Dalano Banton ($2,196,970): Exercised
    • Note: If Banton’s option is exercised, his salary would be partially guaranteed ($217,533), with multiple trigger dates to follow.

Toronto Raptors

Washington Wizards

  • Tristan Vukcevic ($2,424,892): Declined
    • Note: If Vukcevic’s option is exercised, his salary would remain non-guaranteed.
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Community Shootaround: First Round Playoff Series

April 23rd, 2024 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

After the NBA playoffs tipped off on Saturday with a handful of one-sided contests, things got a little more interesting on Sunday and Monday, with the Thunder, Knicks, and Nuggets among the teams to pull out victories in games that went down to the wire.

All three days of the playoffs so far, however, have had one thing in common: The home team has won. The road teams have an 0-11 record entering Tuesday’s action.

It’s not necessarily surprising that the home teams are controlling the eight series so far. Those clubs are the higher seeds, and home-court advantage is often a difference-maker in the postseason.

Still, it’s somewhat rare for the higher seeds to be quite this dominant to open the playoffs, especially when we saw so much parity during the regular season. The No. 2 and No. 8 seeds in the East finished the season just four games apart, while only two games separated the No. 4 to No. 7 teams in the West.

The lower seeds are going to start picking up some wins at some point, especially in Game 3s when they get to play on their respective home courts. But will any of them actually make it out of the first round?

Currently, BetOnline.ag lists all the lower seeds as series underdogs, giving the Mavericks (+140) the best chance to erase its 1-0 deficit and win the series. Those odds aren’t surprising — Dallas finished the season strong, was only a game behind the Clippers in the standings, and seems unlikely to face a fully healthy Kawhi Leonard in the first round.

The Suns (+150) and Pacers (+195) are also viewed as viable candidates to pull off upsets over Minnesota and Milwaukee, respectively. On the other hand, despite only being down 1-0 in their series, the Pelicans (+660) and Heat (+5000!) are massive underdogs vs. the Thunder and Celtics.

Of the teams who have to climb out of a 2-0 hole, BetOnline.ag views the Sixers (+380) as the strongest candidates for a comeback, followed by the Magic (+640) and Lakers (+870).

We want to know what you think. Will any of the eight lower seeds make it out of the first round? If so, which ones do you expect to see in round two?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

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NBA Player Option Decisions For 2024/25

April 23rd, 2024 at 1:00pm CST by Luke Adams

A number of NBA contracts include player options in the final year. Those option years give the player the opportunity to either opt into the last year of his deal and finish out his contract or to decline the option and hit the free agent market a year early.

Several factors play a part in a player’s option decision. The value of the option salary is obviously crucial, as is the player’s performance in the season leading up to his decision.

The state of the NBA’s salary cap also often becomes a necessary consideration for players weighing their decisions. If the salary cap is projected to increase only modestly, or if not many teams around the league project to have cap room, a player may be more inclined to take the guaranteed money rather than trying his luck on the open market.

This year’s player options are listed below. This list – which can be found anytime under the “Hoops Rumors Features” menu on the right sidebar on our desktop site or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu – will be updated throughout the spring and early summer to note the latest decisions as they’re reported or announced.

While some players may face earlier deadlines (as noted below), all option decisions must be finalized by June 29.

Boston Celtics

Brooklyn Nets

Charlotte Hornets

  • Davis Bertans ($16,000,000): Opted in
    • Note: Bertans’ option is technically an early termination option.
    • Note: If Bertans opts in, his salary will only be partially guaranteed for $5.25MM.

Chicago Bulls

Denver Nuggets

Golden State Warriors

Indiana Pacers

Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles Lakers

Memphis Grizzlies

Miami Heat

New York Knicks

Phoenix Suns

Washington Wizards

Decision deadline information from ESPN’s Bobby Marks was used in the creation of this post.

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2024 Pre-Lottery NBA Draft Order

April 22nd, 2024 at 5:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA conducted its draft tiebreakers on Monday, further cementing the draft order for 2024. While we’ll have to wait until the May 12 draft lottery to learn the exact order for this year’s event, we now know what most of the 58 selections look like.

Listed below is the pre-lottery 2024 NBA draft order. Each lottery team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick is noted in parentheses. We’ve also included notes for picks whose status remains up in the air depending on the lottery results.

[RELATED: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Odds]

The second-round draft order for teams with identical regular season records is the inverse of their first-round order. This rule applies even when one club made the playoffs and one didn’t. For instance, the 46-36 Heat will pick ahead of the 46-36 Kings in the second round.

We’ll provided an updated list after the May 12 lottery, once the official draft order is set, but here’s the tentative 2024 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Detroit Pistons (14.0%)
  2. Washington Wizards (14.0%)
  3. Charlotte Hornets (13.3%)
  4. Portland Trail Blazers (13.2%)
  5. San Antonio Spurs (10.5%)
  6. Toronto Raptors (9.0%)
    • Note: The Spurs will receive this pick if it falls out of the top six (54.2%).
  7. Memphis Grizzlies (7.5%)
  8. Utah Jazz (6.0%)
    • Note: The Thunder will receive this pick if it falls out of the top 10 (0.5%).
  9. Houston Rockets (from Nets) (4.5%)
  10. Atlanta Hawks (3.0%)
  11. Chicago Bulls (2.0%)
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Rockets) (1.5%)
    • Note: The Rockets will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (7.2%).
  13. Sacramento Kings (0.8%)
  14. Portland Trail Blazers (from Warriors) (0.7%)
    • Note: The Warriors will retain this pick if it moves into the top four (3.4%).
  15. Miami Heat
  16. Philadelphia 76ers
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
    • Note: The Pelicans have until June 1 to decide whether they want to acquire this pick or instead acquire the Lakers’ unprotected 2025 first-round pick.
  18. Orlando Magic
  19. Toronto Raptors (from Pacers)
  20. Cleveland Cavaliers
  21. New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)
  22. Phoenix Suns
  23. Milwaukee Bucks (from Pelicans)
  24. New York Knicks (from Mavericks)
  25. New York Knicks
  26. Washington Wizards (from Clippers)
  27. Minnesota Timberwolves
  28. Denver Nuggets
  29. Utah Jazz (from Thunder)
  30. Boston Celtics

Second Round:

  1. Toronto Raptors (from Pistons)
  2. Utah Jazz (from Wizards)
  3. Milwaukee Bucks (from Trail Blazers)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 34 if the Trail Blazers end up with a higher first-round pick than the Hornets via the lottery.
  4. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hornets)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 33 if the Trail Blazers end up with a higher first-round pick than the Hornets via the lottery.
  5. San Antonio Spurs
  6. Indiana Pacers (from Raptors)
  7. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Grizzlies)
  8. New York Knicks (from Jazz)
  9. Memphis Grizzlies (from Nets)
  10. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hawks)
  11. Philadelphia 76ers (from Bulls)
  12. Charlotte Hornets (from Rockets)
  13. Miami Heat
  14. Houston Rockets (from Warriors)
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 45 if the Warriors end up with a higher first-round pick than the Kings via the lottery.
  15. Sacramento Kings
    • Note: This pick would move to No. 44 if the Warriors end up with a higher first-round pick than the Kings via the lottery.
  16. Los Angeles Clippers (from Pacers)
  17. Orlando Magic
  18. San Antonio Spurs (from Lakers)
  19. Philadelphia 76ers
  20. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  21. Indiana Pacers (from Pelicans)
  22. Washington Wizards (from Suns)
  23. Golden State Warriors (from Bucks)
  24. Detroit Pistons (from Knicks)
  25. Boston Celtics (from Mavericks)
  26. Los Angeles Lakers (from Clippers)
  27. Denver Nuggets (from Timberwolves)
  28. Memphis Grizzlies (from Thunder)
  29. Phoenix Suns (from Nuggets)
  30. Dallas Mavericks (from Celtics)
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2024 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

April 22nd, 2024 at 5:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA will be using its revamped lottery system for the sixth time this year. The format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery]

The changes had an immediate impact in 2019, when the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

In 2020, the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck was especially meaningful in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.

The lottery results since 2021 have featured fewer surprises. Perhaps, after a few relatively by-the-numbers lottery outcomes in a row, we’ll see a more significant shake-up in 2024. This year’s draft lottery will take place on Sunday, May 12.

With the help of data from Tankathon.com – which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info – the draft lottery odds for 2024 are listed in the chart below.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Pistons‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of becoming the No. 1 selection and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%. Odds are rounded to the nearest decimal place.

Here’s the full chart (if you’re on our mobile site or app and can’t see the whole thing, try turning your phone sideways):

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
WSH 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
CHA 13.3 12.9 12.4 11.7 15.3 27.1 7.4 – – – – – – –
POR 13.2 12.8 12.3 11.7 6.8 24.6 16.4 2.2 – – – – – –
SAS 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
TOR* 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
MEM 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
UTH* 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
BKN* 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
ATL 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
CHI 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
HOU* 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
SAC 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
GSW* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 – – – – – – – – – 96.6

Notes:

  • The Raptors‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs if it lands outside the top six.
  • The Jazz‘s pick will be sent to the Thunder if it lands outside the top 10.
  • The Nets‘ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
  • The Rockets‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it lands outside the top four.
  • The Warriors‘ pick will be sent to the Trail Blazers if it lands outside the top four.

The full pre-lottery 2024 draft order can be found right here.

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Poll: Who Should Win 2023/24 NBA Awards?

April 22nd, 2024 at 7:25am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA announced the 2023/24 finalists for its seven major awards on Sunday, revealing the top three vote-getters for Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Coach of the Year, and the newly added Clutch Player of the Year.

Some of these awards have felt like foregone conclusions for a while, but some results could be genuine surprises when they’re revealed beginning this week.

Today though, we’re not focusing on which players will win the awards, but the ones you believe should win them. Select your winners for this year’s major NBA awards in the seven polls below, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.

Our polls only include the three finalists in each category, but if you think someone else deserves to win one of these awards, be sure to use the comment section to “write in” that pick and explain your reasoning.

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Post-Play-In Update On 2024 Draft Order, Lottery Standings

April 20th, 2024 at 7:28am CST by Luke Adams

As we explained on Monday following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2023/24 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2024 draft order one step closer to being officially set.

Here’s what we know now…

Lottery teams

The results of the play-in tournament didn’t actually change the lottery standings we originally projected on Sunday. The teams that entered the play-in as the seventh and eighth seeds are the ones that made it through.

The Sixers and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face New York and Boston, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Lakers and Pelicans locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Denver and Oklahoma City, respectively.

As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows:

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DET 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9 – – – – – – – – –
WSH 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20 – – – – – – – –
CHA 13.3 12.9 12.4 11.7 15.3 27.1 7.4 – – – – – – –
POR 13.2 12.8 12.3 11.7 6.8 24.6 16.4 2.2 – – – – – –
SAS 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6 – – – – –
TOR* 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 – 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1 – – – –
MEM 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 – – 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0 – – –
UTH* 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 – – – 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0 – –
BKN* 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 – – – – 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0 –
ATL 3 3.3 3.6 4 – – – – – 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
CHI 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 – – – – – – 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
HOU* 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 – – – – – – – 86.1 6.7 0.1
SAC 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 – – – – – – – – 92.9 3.3
GSW* 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 – – – – – – – – – 96.6

* Asterisks denote traded picks:

  • The Raptors‘ pick will be sent to the Spurs if it’s outside the top six.
  • The Jazz‘s pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top 10.
  • The Nets‘ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
  • The Rockets‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder if it’s outside the top four.
  • The Warriors‘ pick will be sent to the Trail Blazers if it’s outside the top four.

Multiple tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since two pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.

The teams listed above in italics and marked with asterisks were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:

  1. Charlotte Hornets / Portland Trail Blazers (21-61)
  2. Sacramento Kings / Golden State Warriors (46-36)

For instance, if the Trail Blazers win their tiebreaker with the Hornets, they’ll be the team that can’t fall further than No. 7 in the lottery, while Charlotte could slide as far as No. 8.

Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as each other, though the club that wins the tiebreaker will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 3 and No. 13.

Traded first-round picks

The play-in results also provided some clarity on certain first-round picks that were traded with protections.

Crucially, the fact that the Kings missed out on the playoffs means they’ll hang onto their 2024 first-round pick, since it was top-14 protected and will land in that range. Instead of receiving Sacramento’s ’24 first-rounder, the Hawks will be owed the Kings’ 2025 pick, with top-12 protection.

The fact that the Warriors ended up in the lottery means there still a chance they could hang onto their first-round pick, which is top-four protected. Those odds are slim though — the Warriors will have a 3.8% chance of moving up into the top four if they win their tiebreaker with Sacramento, or a 3.4% chance if the Kings win that tiebreaker.

That means the Trail Blazers will have either a 96.2% or 96.6% chance to receive Golden State’s pick. Portland is actually probably rooting for the Warriors to win that tiebreaker with the Kings, even though it would ever so slightly reduce the Blazers’ odds of getting the pick — in that scenario, the Blazers would almost certainly receive No. 13 instead of No. 14.

Two more traded picks are worth mentioning, given the results of the play-in tournament. First, the Lakers‘ first-rounder will now end up somewhere in the No. 16-19 range, depending on tiebreakers. The Pelicans have the option of acquiring that pick or deferring it to 2025 — the odds of a deferral are higher now that it’s not a lottery selection.

The Pelicans’ ability to swap picks with the Bucks also remains alive as a result of New Orleans’ playoff berth. The two teams finished with identical records and also tied with Phoenix, so a three-way tiebreaker will determine the picks from No. 21 to 23. If Milwaukee ends up with a higher pick than New Orleans as a result of those tiebreakers, the Pelicans will exercise their swap rights.

Playoff teams

Based on the play-in results, the draft order in the middle of the first round will be as follows:

  1. Miami Heat (46-36)
  2. Indiana Pacers / Los Angeles Lakers / Orlando Magic / Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
    • Note: The Pacers’ pick will be sent to the Raptors.
    • Note: The Lakers’ pick may be sent to the Pelicans (New Orleans has the option to defer it to 2025).
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34)
  4. Milwaukee Bucks / New Orleans Pelicans / Phoenix Suns (49-33)
    • Note: The Pelicans have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Bucks.

In addition to the tiebreaker required for the 16-19 and 21-23 picks, the following tiebreakers will be necessary for playoff teams:

  1. Dallas Mavericks / New York Knicks (50-32)
    • Note: The Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks.
  2. Denver Nuggets / Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
    • Note: The Thunder’s pick will be sent to the Jazz.

It’s worth noting that even though Miami, Sacramento, and Golden State all finished the season with identical 46-36 records, the Heat aren’t involved in the Kings/Warriors tiebreaker because they made the playoffs and the other two teams didn’t.

Because those three teams finished tied in the standings, however, Miami will get the first pick of the three in round two — it will be No. 43, while the Kings and Warriors will pick at No. 44 and 45, in some order.

The random tiebreakers for draft positioning are typically conducted on the Monday eight days after the regular season, which would be April 22. Once those are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2024 draft.

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