Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Oklahoma City Thunder

June 12th, 2019 at 5:03pm CST by Luke Adams

An MVP-caliber season from Paul George had the Thunder looking like one of the Warriors’ most dangerous challengers for the Western Conference crown for much of the year. However, with George battling a shoulder issue by season’s end, the team once again flamed out early in the playoffs, as Damian Lillard ended Oklahoma City’s season with a memorable dagger in Game 5 of the first round.

After paying a league-high $61MM+ luxury tax bill for a roster that produced a single postseason win, Thunder ownership will have to decide whether to double down or pull back for the 2019/20 campaign. The club’s front office will in turn have its offseason options impacted by that decision.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Thunder trade any core pieces?

The Thunder’s de facto “Big Three” – George, Russell Westbrook, and Steven Adams – will combine to earn more than $97MM next season, and all three players have multiple guaranteed seasons left on their respective contracts. If Oklahoma City wants to cut costs going forward, moving one of those players would be a start.

It’s not just about shedding salary though. The Thunder haven’t won a playoff series since Kevin Durant‘s departure in 2016. Westbrook and Adams were cornerstones in each of those three seasons, while George has been there for the last two. As the sample size keeps increasing and the postseason losses keep piling up, it’s fair to question whether this core is capable of making a deep playoff run — especially since the exorbitant cost of the trio limits the Thunder’s ability to add reinforcements.

George, who will earn $33MM in 2019/20, certainly proved last season that he’s worth the price tag, and there’s no chance that the Thunder will look to move him one year after he committed to the organization long-term.

Westbrook, who will make $38.5MM in the second season of his five-year super-max deal, has a more unfavorable contract, but he’s not going anywhere either. As his efficiency numbers continue to slip, it’s looking increasingly likely that the last couple years of his contract ($44.2MM in 2021/22; $47MM in 2022/23) will be hard to swallow, but he’s the heart and soul of the Thunder, and the engine who drives the team. Oklahoma City wouldn’t seriously consider trading him unless he wanted out.

That leaves Adams, who looks like the only realistic trade candidate of the group. If the Thunder could take his $25.8MM cap charge and commit half that money to a stretch four and the other half a to a two-way wing, I’m sure they’d jump at the chance to do so. But the odds of finding a trade along those lines are slim. It wouldn’t surprise me if Oklahoma City gauges the trade market for Adams this summer, but there won’t be teams clamoring to acquire him at that price.

2. How much of a priority is reducing the projected tax bill?

After Patrick Patterson exercised his player option last month, the Thunder’s total guaranteed commitments for 2019/20 rose to approximately $143.5MM for nine players, plus a $2.5MM cap hold for a first-round pick. The tax line is projected to land at around $132MM. That’s a problem.

Thunder ownership has shown it’s willing to invest heavily in the team’s roster, but I’m somewhat skeptical that will continue – at least at the current level – after a third straight first-round exit. Team owners that enter tax territory do so because they believe a championship run is within reach, and the Thunder haven’t shown they’re all that close to that goal in recent years.

I don’t expect an all-out fire sale, and it wouldn’t even surprise me if the Thunder remain over the tax line heading into the fall, but I think the club will make moves to reduce that $143.5MM figure.

Attaching the No. 21 overall pick in the draft to Andre Roberson and Patterson, who will combine to earn nearly $16.5MM on expiring deals, would be one option, though surrendering that first-rounder isn’t a great outcome for a Thunder team that needs to add inexpensive young talent.

Dennis Schroder, who has two years left on his contract at $15.5MM annually, could also be a trade chip if the club is willing to sacrifice a solid rotation player for financial reasons.

3. How can the club add shooting help, given its financial restrictions?

Only three players on the Thunder’s roster shot better than 34.1% from three-point range in 2018/19: George, Jerami Grant, and Terrance Ferguson. Continued reliability and improvement from Grant and Ferguson would be huge for OKC, but the team still needs more outside shooting, as it has been an Achilles heel for multiple seasons.

Two-way wings like Trevor Ariza or Terrence Ross would be ideal free agent targets for the Thunder, but the team will likely only have the taxpayer mid-level exception (worth approximately $5.7MM) available, and those players figure to command larger salaries.

Reggie Bullock, Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews, Wayne Ellington, Rodney Hood, Frank Kaminsky, Trey Lyles, Justin Holiday, Mike Scott, and Troy Daniels are among the other options that could be more affordable for the Thunder, but a handful of those players could easily get offers that exceed the mini mid-level too.

A trade could bring in some shooting help, particularly if the Thunder are willing to use their first-round pick to upgrade the roster rather than cut costs. If they keep that selection, the Thunder could draft an affordable outside shooter, though a rookie may not be ready to step into a rotation role immediately. Tyler Herro, Cameron Johnson, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are among the shooters who might be available at No. 21.

4. Which under-the-radar free agents could help the Thunder at the minimum?

Filling out the final few roster spots with minimum salary players makes sense for a team facing potential tax penalties. The Rockets were among the cap-strapped clubs who showed in 2018/19 that minimum-level veterans can be solid contributors. Carmelo Anthony and Michael Carter-Williams didn’t work out in Houston, but James Ennis, Austin Rivers, Gerald Green, Danuel House, and Kenneth Faried performed capably on minimum deals.

The Thunder’s front office will be keeping its eye out for bounce-back candidates or players who slip through the cracks in free agency. Given how deep and talented this year’s crop of free agents is, there should be opportunities for OKC to make at least a couple value signings.

While it’s too early to say which players will receive strong interest and which ones may not sign until the third or fourth tier of free agency, some of the veterans who could appeal to the Thunder (and other teams hunting for bargains) include Ian Clark, David Nwaba, Vince Carter, Jared Dudley, Darius Miller, Mario Hezonja, Anthony Tolliver, and Mike Muscala.

5. How secure is Billy Donovan’s job?

Donovan will be on the lookout for a new group of assistant coaches for the 2019/20 season, as several of the members of his staff from last season have moved on to new jobs. Mark Bryant and Darko Rajakovic are reportedly joining the Suns, while Bob Beyer will head to the Kings.

Phoenix and Sacramento have something in common — both teams just hired new head coaches to long-term deals, giving their assistants some job security. That’s not the case in Oklahoma City, where Donovan is only under contract through 2019/20. Assuming no extension is forthcoming, that means there are no guarantees for either Donovan or his staff through next season.

It’s rare for an NBA head coach to enter the final year of his contract as a “lame duck,” so it’s possible the two sides could still reach an agreement this offseason that extends Donovan’s deal by at least one more year. But Sam Presti‘s end-of-season declaration that he “anticipates” Donovan’s return in 2019/20 didn’t exactly signal that the head coach is safe for the long term.

Regardless of what happens with Donovan’s contract, it’s safe to assume he’ll be under increased scrutiny going forward. Given the talent at the top of their roster, the Thunder won’t be satisfied with many more one-and-done postseason runs.

Check out the Oklahoma City Thunder’s offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Why NBA Sign-And-Trades Are Rare

June 12th, 2019 at 12:59pm CST by Luke Adams

With NBA free agency around the corner, speculation about teams’ targets and players’ potential destinations is running rampant, and that speculation often leads to discussion of possible sign-and-trade deals. After all, sign-and-trade arrangements seem like win-win scenarios — the player gets to go to his preferred landing spot, while his old team isn’t left without anything to show for a departing free agent.

While sign-and-trade deals may make sense in theory though, the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement makes them tricky in reality, particularly for elite free agents. Since the 2015 offseason, a total of four sign-and-trade deals have been completed, an average of just one per year.

The Knicks acquired Kyle O’Quinn in a 2015 sign-and-trade, while the Grizzlies and Bucks signed-and-traded for Troy Daniels and Matthew Dellavedova, respectively, in 2016. In 2017, the Clippers acquired Danilo Gallinari via sign-and-trade. No sign-and-trade deals were completed in 2018.

Not only have sign-and-trades become rare, but the compensation for the player’s old team has been next to non-existent. The most valuable assets received in any of those four aforementioned sign-and-trade deals since 2015 have been distant second-round draft picks or cash.

Why exactly are sign-and-trades becoming so rare for NBA teams and players? Here are a few reasons:

1. Players can only get full maximum salary contracts (five years, 8% annual raises) if they remain with their previous team.

Under old versions of the NBA’s CBA, a sign-and-trade deal allowed a player to sign for the true max – in terms of total years and annual raises – even though he wasn’t remaining with his previous team. That’s no longer the case.

If, for instance, the Celtics were to sign-and-trade Kyrie Irving to another club this summer, he wouldn’t be able to receive the five years or 8% annual raises that he would if he re-signed with Boston — he’d still be eligible for the same starting salary, but would be limited to four years and 5% raises, reducing the overall value of his max contract by nearly $50MM, based on current cap projections.

2. Teams with cap room can sign a player outright without giving up assets in a sign-and-trade.

Let’s use Irving as an example again and assume he’s set on leaving the Celtics and decides to join the Nets or Knicks.

We already know there’s no incentive for Irving in terms of salary if he agrees to be part of a sign-and-trade — he could get the same contract by signing outright with the Nets or Knicks, since both teams have plenty of cap space. Similarly, there’s no incentive for those suitors to give up any assets to acquire Kyrie when they could simply use their cap room to sign him outright.

It’s still possible that the Nets or Knicks would be willing to do a sign-and-trade in this scenario, but if so, they certainly wouldn’t feel pressure to send anything of real value to the Celtics. In fact, they’d be doing a favor to Boston in that scenario.

For instance, when the Bucks acquired Dellavedova from the Cavaliers via sign-and-trade during the 2016 offseason, Milwaukee actually received an extra $200K from Cleveland in the swap. All the Cavs received in the deal were the draft rights to Albert Miralles, who was never expected to play in the NBA. The only reason the two teams turned it into a sign-and-trade deal was to create a trade exception for the Cavs, who actually had to pay the Bucks to make that happen.

3. Teams that acquire a player via sign-and-trade become hard-capped.

If teams with cap room have no incentive to acquire a player via sign-and-trade, that means it’s only really a viable option for over-the-cap clubs. But those clubs don’t necessarily have a ton of wiggle room.

Any team that acquires a player via sign-and-trade can’t be above the tax apron (a mark about $6MM over the tax line) when the deal is completed — or at any time for the rest of that league year.

That restriction eliminates a handful of teams from even being eligible to acquire a player in a sign-and-trade — the Thunder, Warriors, Raptors, and Trail Blazers all finished the 2018/19 season above the tax apron, and a handful of other teams were above that threshold earlier in the league year. The same thing figures to happen in future seasons, reducing the pool of sign-and-trade destinations available to free agents.

4. A free agent joining a new team won’t want to weaken that club.

Unlike traditional trades, sign-and-trade deals can’t simply be completed if two teams agree to them — the player has to sign off as well.

There are certainly plenty of good reasons why a player would do so. Maybe he’ll get a well-above-market deal if he agrees to go a specific team as part of a trade package, or maybe a sign-and-trade is the only way he can get to his preferred landing spot.

But there has to be some reason why it makes sense for the player to go the sign-and-trade route instead of signing outright. Otherwise, he’s just forcing his new team to give up assets for him when those assets could be used to make the team better in other ways. There’s no reason he’d want to do that.

5. Signed-and-traded players can be difficult to salary-match in trades.

If a free agent wants to join a team without cap room for a contract worth more than the mid-level, a sign-and-trade may genuinely make sense. However, even that scenario can’t necessarily be handled like a normal trade, since the Base Year Compensation (BYC) rule often applies.

As we explain in our full glossary entry on the subject, the BYC rule applies to a specific circumstance. If a player is being signed-and-traded via Early Bird or Bird rights by a team above the salary cap, gets a raise of at least 20%, and his salary is worth more than the minimum, his cap figure for salary-matching purposes will be affected. For the team acquiring him, his full salary would apply in a trade. For the team trading him, he would count for his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater.

Let’s use Irving as an example one more time and assume he signs a deal with a starting salary of $32.7MM, his projected max. Since he would fit the BYC criteria, Irving would count for $32.7MM for salary-matching purposes for his new team in a sign-and-trade, but would only count for about $20.1MM (his previous salary) from the Celtics’ perspective.

That would make it difficult for the two teams to meet the salary-matching rules in a trade — if Irving’s new team is above the cap, that team would have to send out at least $26.08MM in salary to make a deal work from its end, which is more salary than Irving’s outgoing $20.1MM cap figure would allow Boston to take on. Additional pieces would be required, which would complicate negotiations.

The NBA’s salary cap rules can be byzantine and confusing, but in this case, the rules related to sign-and-trades were implemented with a clear goal in mind. Unlike in the past, when a player was able to sign the longest possible max contract and join a new team via a sign-and-trade, the last couple Collective Bargaining Agreements have essentially made a player choose between those two options. In theory, that should make it easier for teams to retain their own star free agents.

With a series of max-contract, BYC, and salary-cap rules now in place, there are enough factors getting in the way of sign-and-trade deals that they’ve become a less realistic option, particularly for the very best free agents.

Information from Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post. A previous version of this post was published in 2017.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Detroit Pistons

June 11th, 2019 at 1:12pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Thanks to an All-Star season from Blake Griffin, the Pistons reached the playoffs for just the second time since the 2008/09 season. Their postseason stay didn’t last long, as they were swept in the opening round by the top-seeded Bucks.

Making improvements to the team this offseason will be challenging for the front office. They are saddled with some bad contracts that will prevent them for pursuing top-level free agents. Talent is thin beyond the frontcourt duo of Griffin and Andre Drummond and they need to find some shooters. The team ranked only above the woeful Knicks in field-goal shooting percentage this season.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will they keep the Blake Griffin/Andre Drummond/Reggie Jackson core intact?

It’s unlikely the Pistons will go into full tank mode after making the playoffs for the second time in a decade. Once the gold standard among Eastern Conference franchises by reaching the conference finals from 2003-08, the Pistons have been irrelevant for too long to start all over again.

Griffin has given the franchise the star power it has sorely lacked for many years. He has reshaped his game over the years, turning himself into a stretch four, ballhandler and playmaker. Moreover, concerns over how Griffin would handle the switch from Los Angeles to snowy Detroit have evaporated. He’s become the clear team leader and spokesman while endearing himself to teammates, coaches and staff members with his work ethic and professionalism.

Drummond is a tricky case. He’s the league’s premier rebounder and one of its most mobile big men. His offensive game has shown improvement, particularly at the free throw line where he’s gone from historically awful to somewhat respectable. He’s also shown some improvement defensively, leading the team in blocks and steals, though his presence doesn’t discourage opponents from attacking the paint.

The bigger question mark is Drummond’s future plans. He holds a player option on his contract after next season at $28.75MM. If he intends to opt out, the Pistons could explore trades to pile up assets rather than risk losing him for nothing more than salary-cap space next summer.

Jackson ranked 32nd among point guards on ESPN’s Player Efficiency Rating scale. Injuries have set his career back, though his play perked up after the All-Star break. There’s little doubt the Pistons would jump at the chance to upgrade at the point, since coach Dwane Casey‘s scheme isn’t reliant on pick-and-rolls and Jackson is more comfortable running those sets.

Jackson becomes a free agent next summer, so the cap-strapped Pistons may simply roll with him next season and then replace him.

2. Will the Pistons be content to wait out unfavorable contracts?

The previous regime led by coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy was far too generous passing out big money to low-impact players.

Jackson certainly isn’t the only player who has failed to live up a generous multi-year contract. Jon Leuer, with $9.5MM remaining on his deal, epitomizes the phrase “dead money.” Even with Griffin struggling with a knee injury late in the season and a roster bereft of true power fowards, Casey chose to use small lineups rather than throw Leuer into the rotation.

The front office, led by senior adviser Ed Stefanski, would love to move Leuer’s contract. However, the Pistons are loathe to give up future assets to make that happen, since it wouldn’t appreciably aid their cap situation this summer. A greater possibility is attaching his salary in a larger deal that would net the team another impact player on a pricey long-term contract that the trade partner is looking to shed.

Galloway, who has a year and $7.3MM left on his deal, was able to carve out a role in Casey’s rotation. He’s an undersized shooting guard who can occasionally get hot from long range. The Pistons certainly wouldn’t hesitate to move him in a package deal but once again, they won’t ship out future assets to shed his contract.

3. How will the Pistons use their mid-level exception?

The Pistons have lots of holes to fill. It’s more likely they’ll split the mid-level up to satisfy those needs, unless they can sign a starter or sixth man at below-market value.

Re-signing backup point Ish Smith seemed like a priority until his production dropped off late in the season. The Pistons could opt for a younger option on the market, or shift Luke Kennard or Bruce Brown into that role.

They’ll be looking for an upgrade over the lumbering, aging Zaza Pachulia as Drummond’s backup and could also add a power forward behind Griffin to the mix.

Yet the biggest area of need remains the wing spots. The Pistons simply have to find more shooters to ease the burden on Griffin.

They’ve already been linked to Derrick Rose and Seth Curry. Danny Green, Terrence Ross and Reggie Bullock are other names to watch. Bullock had a forgettable experience with the Lakers, but was Detroit’s most reliable 3-point shooter before he was dealt in February.

4. How will the Pistons use the No. 15 overall pick?

The general feeling around the organization is that the Pistons will target a wing with their pick, which is just outside the lottery, but the team may ultimately utilize the “best player available” strategy at that spot.

The latest ESPN mock draft has the Pistons selecting playmaking wing Romeo Langford, who played most of his freshman season at Indiana with a hand injury. If the Pistons brass believes Langford’s subpar shooting last season was due to the injury, that prediction might come to fruition.

However, there are several forwards projected to go just ahead of their pick and it’s almost inevitable one or more will slide out of the lottery. The Pistons could wind up with Rui Hachimura, Nassir Little, PJ Washington or Brandon Clarke. Another option would be to fill the shooting guard spot with a perimeter threat like Tyler Herro or Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

5. Given their salary-cap constraints, what else can the Pistons do to improve this summer?

One of the things that intrigued owner Tom Gores when he hired Casey last summer was the ex-Raptors coach’s ability to develop young talent. The fruits of Casey’s efforts have come to light during Toronto’s NBA Finals run (Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Norman Powell).

The Pistons’ roster is dotted with youth and there’s untapped potential. Brown, a second-round pick last year, became a starter after Bullock was traded due to his defensive prowess. Now, the coaching staff must develop Brown’s offensive game.

As mentioned earlier, Brown or Kennard could emerge as the second-unit point guard next season. The staff wanted to take a long look at Kennard in that role during summer league action last July but a knee injury derailed those plans.

Shooting guard Khyri Thomas, another second-rounder acquired from the Sixers in last year’s draft, saw spot duty last season. The staff is high on his potential as a perimeter shooter.

Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, yet another second-round pick last year who was forwarded by the Lakers in the Bullock trade, also intrigues with his outside shooting and length. Molding Thomas and/or Mykhailiuk into a reliable rotation player next season would make this a productive summer for the coaching staff.

Check out the Detroit Pistons’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

James Ennis On Potential Return To Sixers: “I Would Love To Come Back”

June 11th, 2019 at 9:03am CST by JD Shaw

Swingman James Ennis hopes to re-sign with the Sixers on a new, long-term deal in free agency, one that could give him some newfound stability in what’s been a roller coaster career to date, the 28-year-old told Hoops Rumors.

Ennis, who was a key cog off the 76ers’ bench during the playoffs, got traded to Philadelphia halfway through the season after starting the campaign in Houston. He worked his way up the ladder and gained more playing time, quickly earning the trust of head coach Brett Brown.

Ennis — along with agent Scott Nichols of Rize Management — informed the Sixers of his decision to decline a $1.85MM player option for the 2019/20 season last month. He’ll become an unrestricted free agent once free agency opens on June 30 at 6:00pm eastern time.

“I love the [Sixers] fans,” Ennis told Hoops Rumors. “I love how they support the team. I like Philly a lot and I would love to come back.”

Ennis, who held per-game averages of 7.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 21.1 minutes in the playoffs, is expected to seek a more lucrative multiyear deal and will receive interest from multiple teams.

The Sixers’ ability to retain Ennis could hinge in part on what Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris and J.J. Redick choose to do in free agency. Philadelphia will only hold Ennis’ Non-Bird rights, limiting the club’s ability to offer much of a raise, so cap room or another exception will likely be required to bring him back. Another franchise in need of a serviceable bench option could steal him away if the right contract is offered.

“It’s good to have leverage,” Ennis said of declining his player option. “When you have stability, you’re more comfortable. You know when you’re going to play, how much you’re going to play, it makes it easier. It was more consistent [playing time] towards the end of the season going into the playoffs. I was comfortable.”

Ennis has made stops with a handful of teams in his five-season NBA career, spending time with Miami, Memphis (twice), New Orleans, Detroit, Houston and Philadelphia. During that time, he has worked hard to establish himself as a two-way player, which is a major reason why he’s expected to seek a multiyear deal on the open market.

“I know my worth,” Ennis said. “I’ve put in a lot of work, and I know I’m better than a lot of the players who get $40MM [multiyear deals]. I know I’m better than a lot of players and I showed it in the playoffs — if you call my number I’ll be ready and I can produce.”

For Ennis, a journeyman now set to bet on himself in unrestricted free agency, declining his player option didn’t signify a desire to leave the 76ers. He has already held discussions with Brown about how he can improve his game entering next season, labeling defense and three-point shooting as two major areas to work on this offseason.

“I’m always gonna try to get better defensively, lateral movements and stuff like that,” Ennis said. “But just being a consistent knock-down three-point shooter [is the goal]. I think I shoot the ball okay, but I’ll be an elite shooter next year. Definitely.”

Sixers general manager Elton Brand will certainly have his hands full in free agency with the decisions of Butler, Harris, Redick and others this summer. But Ennis’ situation shouldn’t be ignored, especially given the club’s depth issues down the stretch.

Brand and his contingent have less than three weeks to develop a game plan for how they can re-sign their free agents, many of whom helped the team go down to the wire in a Game 7 against Toronto in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals. Bringing back those free agents was the Sixers’ goal when Ennis, Butler and Harris were acquired in separate trades during the season, and it’s still publicly and privately their primary goal today.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: San Antonio Spurs

June 10th, 2019 at 10:58pm CST by Luke Adams

The typically drama-free Spurs underwent some turmoil during the 2018 offseason. Having lost faith in the team after the way his quad injury was handled, Kawhi Leonard – the superstar who was supposed to lead the organization into the post-Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker era – asked for a trade.

The Spurs, who don’t often make blockbuster deals, granted his request, sending the star forward to Toronto in a four-player trade that saw another All-Star (DeMar DeRozan) land in San Antonio. Gregg Popovich‘s squad didn’t miss a beat, winning 48 games and extending its NBA-best playoff streak to 22 consecutive seasons. But with Leonard no longer around, the Spurs’ path back to championship contention looks murkier.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Are the Spurs content to move forward with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge leading the way?

As noted above, the Spurs generally don’t head into offseasons – or trade deadlines – looking to shake up their roster with deals involving core players. Assuming they continue to operate that way, we can probably count on seeing a 2019/20 team that looks pretty similar to the 2018/19 squad, with San Antonio aiming to take a step forward by betting on Dejounte Murray‘s return and improvements from young players like Derrick White and Lonnie Walker.

Still, while the Spurs looked great at times last season, it’s fair to question the upside of a roster led by DeRozan and Aldridge. They’ve each made multiple All-NBA teams and – even as they enter their age-30 and age-34 seasons, respectively – should continue to produce going forward. But their heavy reliance on mid-range shots is unusual by modern NBA standards, and creates an increased degree of difficulty in a league where the most efficient and successful clubs are leaning heavily on three-pointers, shots at the rim, and free throws.

DeRozan and Aldridge each have just one guaranteed year left on their contracts — DeRozan has a 2020/21 player option, while Aldridge has a partial guarantee for that season. In other words, there could be some uncertainty about their status beyond the ’19/20 campaign.

If the Spurs want to get out ahead of that uncertainty, they could consider the possibility of moving one of their stars. Popovich has never shown much interest in dealing with the Lakers, but I can’t help but think that they’d be a good trade partner for the Spurs if they miss out on other top targets. The Lakers made a run at Aldridge in 2015 and DeRozan is a Los Angeles native, while some of their young players could really blossom under Popovich.

Again, given what we know about the Spurs, the idea that they’d make a blockbuster deal for a second straight summer is unlikely, but it’s still a concept worth considering.

2. How long will Gregg Popovich continue coaching the Spurs?

A report in January indicated that Popovich was uncertain about his future, and there was speculation that 2018/19 could even be his last season coaching the Spurs. That no longer appears to be a possibility, though we still don’t know for sure how much longer Popovich will remain in his current position, which includes a certain level of personnel control over the roster.

In April, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Popovich and the Spurs would likely finalize a three-year contract this offseason. Such a deal would run through the 2021/22 season, well beyond the 2020 Olympics, which some observers believed would be the veteran coach’s last hurrah.

Even if the Spurs finalize a three-year contract, that doesn’t mean that Popovich, who will turn 71 in January, can’t change his mind and retire before it expires, but it suggests he’s not planning on going anywhere anytime soon.

If Popovich were entering his final year, it’s unlikely that the Spurs would have attempted to accelerate their contention timeline anyway. If Pop believes he has multiple seasons left in him, there should be no such considerations at all this offseason.

3. Will the Spurs sign Dejounte Murray to a rookie scale extension?

One reason Popovich may be motivated to stick around San Antonio a little longer is to continue overseeing the development of Murray. The 2016 first-rounder generated a ton of buzz leading up to the 2018/19 season and was a popular pick to be one of the NBA’s breakout players. Instead, he suffered a torn ACL during the preseason and was sidelined for the entire year.

Recovering from a torn ACL is no fun, but at age 22, Murray is in position to make a comeback and continue his ascension. If he’s back to 100% to start the 2019/20 season, the dynamic point guard should change the look of the Spurs’ backcourt, providing play-making on offense and versatility on defense.

As he makes his way back from his ACL injury, Murray will also become eligible for a rookie scale contract extension next month. The Spurs will have until the day before the season opener to decide whether to lock him up to a new deal (which would start in 2020/21) or to let him reach restricted free agency in 2020.

It won’t be an easy call. In theory, it looks like a prime opportunity to get Murray at a long-term discount, like the Warriors did with Stephen Curry coming off his rookie deal, when there were concerns about his ankle issues.

But if the youngster isn’t all the way back from the ACL tear, a significant long-term investment would be a risk. On the other hand, if he’s feeling good about his rehab efforts, he may prefer to roll the dice on increasing his value in ’19/20 rather than accepting a team-friendly offer now. We’ll see if Murray and the Spurs can find a middle ground.

For what it’s worth, young big man Jakob Poeltl is also eligible for a rookie scale extension.

4. What will the Spurs do with their two first-round picks?

Despite consistently drafting in the back half of the first round, the Spurs have done well over the years to identify prospects capable of turning into reliable rotation pieces. Murray, White, Kyle Anderson, and Cory Joseph are among the players the Spurs have selected with the 29th or 30th overall picks since 2011.

The Spurs will once again hold the No. 29 pick in 2019, by way of the Raptors (via the Kawhi trade). They’ll also have the No. 19 overall selection, giving them a pair of opportunities to strike gold.

While the 2019 draft class isn’t considered a strong one, that may not matter much to the Spurs, who will lock in on a small handful of players they like. But after adding a pair of rookies to their roster a year ago (White and Chimezie Metu), the Spurs may not be eager to do so again this time around.

If that’s the case, it will be interesting to see how exactly the Spurs make use of their two picks. Perhaps they use one to select a player and the second to stash an international player, or to trade in a package for a veteran who could contribute immediately. Trading both picks to move up for a player they like is a possibility. The team could also push the asset to a future year by trading one of its first-round picks for a future first-rounder.

5. Will the Spurs bring back Rudy Gay?

With over $99MM in salary commitments on their books for 2019/20 so far, the Spurs don’t project to have cap room, so the mid-level exception looks the most likely avenue for an upgrade. However, the club is also in a good position to bring back Gay — a competitive offer using his Early Bird rights likely wouldn’t take San Antonio’s team salary anywhere near tax territory.

Gay has a reputation as a volume scorer, but he was at his most efficient during the 2018/19 season, establishing new career highs in FG% (.504) and 3PT% (.402). If the Spurs let him go, it won’t create added cap room to replace him, which is an argument in favor of re-signing him.

Additionally, while the Spurs already have 11 players under contract for next season and figure to add at least one or two more on draft night, they don’t have a ton of guys like Gay, who can play both forward positions, create his own shot, and knock down jumpers from beyond the arc.

It certainly wouldn’t the most exciting move of the 2019 free agent period, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Spurs end up re-signing Gay, who has carved out a nice little role in San Antonio after spending much of his career on losing teams.

Check out the San Antonio Spurs’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Weekly Mailbag: 6/2/19 – 6/9/19

June 9th, 2019 at 12:57pm CST by Arthur Hill

We have an opportunity for you to hit us up with your questions in this, our weekly mailbag feature. Have a question regarding player movement, the salary cap or the NBA draft? Drop us a line at HoopsRumorsMailbag@Gmail.com.

Do you think there’s a chance Kevin Durant will stay put next season with the Warriors if they lose the NBA crown? KD’s reason might be to prove the Warriors can’t win the crown without him. — Greg Dizon

A consensus has built over the past few months that Durant is headed to the Knicks. He hasn’t done anything to confirm the rumor and has scolded the media several times for focusing on free agency rather than the season at hand. Still, the scenario has been in place since New York traded Kristaps Porzingis and cleared enough cap room for two max offers.

Nobody knows for sure what Durant will do, and it’s possible he won’t decide until after he meets with a few suitors. This year’s Finals have killed any speculation that the Warriors are better without him, so there’s nothing left to prove on that front. With Durant’s Bird Rights, Golden State can offer a longer contract and more money than anyone else, which might appeal to Durant now that he has turned 30. It will come down to what Durant decides is most important. It could be money, security and the chance to be part of a dynasty. Or it could be a fresh challenge with a different franchise.

I’m hearing that Kemba Walker is going to the Pacers? — Mark Kinder, via Twitter

Walker won’t go anywhere if Charlotte makes a super-max offer. He loves the team and the city, and no one else can offer him anything close to $221.3MM over five years. If Hornets management decides that would result in too much luxury tax for a team that missed the playoffs, then Indiana will be a strong competitor on the open market. With six free agents, the Pacers can clear a lot of cap room and they will be looking for an upgrade to Darren Collison. Once Victor Oladipo returns from a ruptured quad tendon, he and Walker could take their place among the league’s best backcourts.

Any hope for the Wizards this year? — TypicalDMVFan, via Twitter

“Hope” can mean many things. Washington probably won’t see the postseason again until John Wall comes back, which appears to be the 2020/21 season. But there are still ways the Wizards can improve. Owning the No. 9 pick in the draft will help, and they will have enough cap flexibility to compete for mid-level free agents.

This will be a pivotal summer in Washington with a decision on whether to keep Bradley Beal and try to compete for a low-level playoff spot or work out a trade and go into full rebuilding mode. Unfortunately, there’s no one running the organization right now to make that choice. The best hope for the Wizards may be their expected pursuit of Raptors president Masai Ujiri, who has built successful teams in Toronto and Denver.

Community Shootaround: Could Durant Save The Warriors?

June 8th, 2019 at 9:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

With the Warriors facing a 3-1 deficit as the NBA Finals shift back to Toronto, many media members are theorizing that Golden State’s only hope is a return by Kevin Durant. Although Durant joined his team for the trip to Canada, his status remains uncertain. The MVP of the last two Finals hasn’t played or participated in a full practice since suffering a calf strain a month ago in the Western Conference semifinals.

There’s no question that a healthy Durant would make a difference. He was magnificent as usual before the injury, posting a 26.0/6.4/5.9 line in 78 regular season games and leading all playoff scorers at 34.2 points per game. Golden State hasn’t lost a postseason series since he joined the team three years ago.

Still, it may be an overstatement to say the Warriors would be in control of the series if he were available. The Raptors might be the best team they have faced over the past three seasons and have already dispatched a talented Sixers team and this year’s probable MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo. Kawhi Leonard has reminded everyone that he’s one of the league’s best players, and he’s surrounded by a talented supporting cast that is proficient on both ends of the floor.

Even if Durant returns for Game 5, there are questions about how effective he can be. The Warriors haven’t issued any progress reports on his condition, other than vague statements expressing hope that he’ll be back before the playoffs end. Timing would be a concern for someone who hasn’t been on the court for a month and is trying to return to the game at its highest level.

We want to get your opinion on whether Durant’s return can save the series for the Warriors. Would his natural talent be enough or would he just provide a distraction and an easy target for the Raptors to exploit on defense? Please leave your answers in the space below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 6/1/19 – 6/8/19

June 8th, 2019 at 1:12pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our segments and features from the past seven days:

Our 2018/19 Salary Cap Digest series analyzed the Bucks.
Luke Adams took a look at five players with Non-Bird rights whose current teams may have difficulty re-signing.
Our Five Key Offseason Questions series focused on the following teams this week:
Our lone Community Shootaround discussion post this week addressed whether the NBA should swap the order for free agency and the NBA Draft.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Draft, Free Agency Dates

June 7th, 2019 at 8:32pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The draft is coming up in less than two weeks but there are factions within the league that would like to see the June date changed in the future.

Last year, the Rockets made a proposal to move free agency ahead of the draft and some teams, including the Celtics, endorsed it.

Whether the proposal will ever gather enough steam to be enacted is uncertain. But Celtics director of player personnel Austin Ainge recently spelled out the benefits of making the switch.

“I think that most teams build from veteran players first,” Ainge said. “If you have a Top 5 pick, you’re most likely a rebuilding team, so free agency isn’t affecting that. … And then, all of the other teams, you more likely are fitting in draft picks in and around a veteran core group. So I think the calendar should follow our decision-making tree. So I think it should be switched.”

Draft-day decisions would become clearer if most of the free agents had already signed. It would certainly help teams this summer like the Raptors (Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green), Celtics (Kyrie Irving) and Bucks (Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez) if they already knew which key free in-house agents they re-signed or lost. It would also help a rebuilding team with cap space like the Knicks, who could base their draft-day options on how successful they were in free agency.

Salary-cap situations would also be clearer if it were already known whether players with contract options decided to stay or chose free agency.

It could also facilitate trades before and during the draft.

However, there are drawbacks. If the draft were pushed back for a month or so, it would greatly affect the summer leagues and force the acclimation process for rookies to be accelerated.

Would underclassmen get a few extra weeks to decide whether to stay in the draft? If so, it would create even more headaches for college coaches, who are already struggling with the uncertainty regarding the status of key players.

That leads us to our question of the day: Should the NBA swap the dates for free agency and the draft?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Orlando Magic

June 7th, 2019 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning no more than 35 games for six consecutive seasons as they found themselves mired in an endless rebuild, the Magic took some major steps forward in 2018/19, claiming the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference and returning to the playoffs for the first time since the Stan Van Gundy era.

While the Jeff Weltman/John Hammond duo in the front office appears to have the team on the right track, Orlando will find itself in a tough situation this summer, as two of its more important veteran contributors are eligible for unrestricted free agency.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Magic re-sign Nikola Vucevic?

Heading into the 2018/19 season, it appeared that Vucevic’s days in Orlando were numbered. After all, over the course of the previous two offseasons, the club had drafted Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba, and locked up Aaron Gordon to a lucrative new four-year contract. With Vucevic’s contract set to expire in 2019, he looked like a prime trade candidate.

The 2019 trade deadline came and went without a Vucevic deal though, and the veteran center’s All-Star performance helped the Magic reach the playoffs, as he averaged 20.8 PPG, 12.0 RPG, and 3.8 APG on .518/.364/.789 shooting. Now that he’s coming off a career year, the equation no longer looks so simple for Vucevic and the Magic.

Orlando holds the 28-year-old’s Bird rights and shouldn’t face luxury tax concerns if he’s re-signed. If they let him walk for nothing, the Magic would forfeit an asset without gaining any real cap room in 2019 to add a comparable replacement. And if Vucevic returns, it’s not like he couldn’t eventually be traded down the road. Those are all points in favor of bringing him back.

On the other hand, Weltman and Hammond brought in Isaac and Bamba themselves, with Gordon and Vucevic having been acquired by the previous regime. It would be unorthodox for a new management group to re-sign two incumbent veterans to big-money, long-term contracts in consecutive offseasons when those two vets play the same positions as their two top-six draft picks. Plus, Vucevic will require a significant investment — the Kings are among the other teams said to have interest, and they’re equipped to make a substantial offer.

The Magic’s decision on Vucevic will be a fascinating one. I don’t have a good sense yet of which way they’re leaning, but I’d be a little surprised if they invest major money in the veteran center without lining up a trade involving another one of their big men.

2. Aaron Gordon: Long-term keeper or trade chip?

If the Magic do trade one of their bigs, Gordon seems like the most obvious candidate of the bunch. Isaac and Bamba are still on rookie contracts and have plenty of room to improve, and Vucevic would be on a new contract if he’s re-signed, ineligible to be moved until at least December.

Gordon’s contract is also trade-friendly, as it declines in value each season. While he’ll earn $19.86MM in 2019/20, his cap hit will shrink to $16.4MM by the final year of his deal in 2021/22.

Still, trading Gordon would be a risk. The Magic had trouble getting points on the board last season, and Isaac and Bamba are defense-first players, while Vucevic isn’t the type of player who can break down an opposing defense.

Although Gordon is hardly the NBA’s most dynamic scorer, he took on more of a play-making role for Orlando last season and especially in the playoffs. He looked like the team’s most dangerous offensive threat in five first-round games against Toronto, averaging a club-high 15.2 PPG and nearly leading the team in assists as well (3.6 APG). He’s a versatile two-way player who has improved every season.

If Gordon is dealt this summer, he should be used in a deal that lands the Magic a strong offensive player who can get his own shot and set up his teammates, whether that’s a point guard, a wing, or a forward. If Orlando can’t get a clear upgrade in that area, it probably makes more sense to hang onto Gordon for the time being to see if he can continue to expand that aspect of his game.

3. How much confidence do the Magic have in Markelle Fultz?

The Magic do have one player on the roster who meets the play-maker criteria I mentioned above, but that player has yet to appear in a game for the team. The No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, Fultz was sent to Orlando in a deadline deal in February, but was sidelined for the rest of the season as he continued to recover from thoracic outlet syndrome.

The club’s level of confidence in Fultz will have a significant impact on multiple aspects of the offseason. For one, a decision on the youngster’s 2020/21 team option is due by October 31. The Magic will have a chance to see Fultz in training camp and the preseason, and hopefully in some regular-season action before they have to make a call on that option, and they’ll want to make sure they don’t jump the gun on that decision — because he was the first overall pick, the fourth-year option on Fultz’s rookie contract will be worth an eye-popping $12.29MM.

Before making that call, the Magic will have to decide this summer how seriously to focus on upgrading the point guard position. D.J. Augustin did well as the starter last season, but his upside is limited, and he’ll be entering the final year of his contract in 2019/20. If Fultz is expected to be healthy and the Magic still strongly believe in his potential, he and Augustin could be relied upon to handle point guard duties.

But given how weak the Magic’s point guard play was behind Augustin last season, the team may not want to put that much pressure on Fultz. While the Magic probably won’t have cap room available, they could use their mid-level exception on a veteran free agent point guard. That would give them a reliable insurance policy at the position, and if Fultz bounces back, they’d be fine using lineups featuring two point guards, given Fultz’s size and Augustin’s outside shooting ability.

4. Will the Magic re-sign Terrence Ross?

Vucevic is probably the most important free agent on the Magic’s books this offseason, but Ross isn’t far behind. On a roster that didn’t feature many other efficient volume shooters, he played a crucial role, making 38.3% of his three-point attempts on a career-high 7.0 attempts per game. He’s not a one-dimensional player either, as he contributed to one of the NBA’s best defenses with his length and versatility.

As is the case with Vucevic, the Magic hold Ross’ Bird rights, so there will be no cap restrictions stopping them from bringing him back. It’ll simply be a matter of how much they’re willing to pay, and how much competition they get from rival teams — Ross’ outside shooting will make him popular on the open market, and he’ll be unrestricted.

While the Magic shouldn’t offer anything crazy to re-sign Ross, it wouldn’t shock me if the team pushes harder to retain him than Vucevic, considering the center will likely be more expensive. Even though his arrival predates the Weltman/Hammond era in Orlando, it’s not as if the management group doesn’t like him — Ross played for the Raptors for several years when Weltman was in Toronto’s front office.

Given their ability to offer him more than the mid-level, the Magic may try to get something done with Ross early in free agency, while clubs with cap room are still focused on bigger targets.

5. Will the Magic try to trade Evan Fournier or Timofey Mozgov?

As I previously noted, the Magic aren’t likely to have cap room available this summer, unless the team loses both Vucevic and Ross. Fournier’s and Mozgov’s contracts are contributing to Orlando’s lack of cap flexibility — the former is on the books for $17MM in 2019/20, while the latter has a $16.72MM cap charge.

Mozgov has bounced around among multiple teams since the Lakers signed him in 2016 to a four-year, $64MM contract that was considered an overpay from day one. He could change homes again this season if the Magic make a major trade — with his deal finally set to expire at the end of the 2019/20 season, he’d make a good salary-matching piece for a club looking to open up cap room in 2020.

If no trade opportunities materialize for the Magic, they should be content to keep Mozgov on their books, perhaps buying him out at some point without stretching his salary. Unless they make other cost-cutting moves, stretching Mozgov and spreading his remaining cap hit across three seasons probably wouldn’t give Orlando many more options this offseason, and it would compromise the club’s flexibility in future years.

A Fournier deal may actually be more realistic. His name has come up repeatedly in trade rumors since Weltman and Hammond arrived in Orlando, and with just two years remaining on his lengthy deal, he’s more movable now than he has been in the past.

Of course, he’s also coming off a down year by his standards, so Fournier won’t have a ton of value on the trade market, and the Magic won’t want to attach a valuable asset to move him. Still, given all the trade speculation that has surrounded him in the past, I’d be surprised if the club doesn’t explore its options with Fournier again this summer.

Check out the Orlando Magic’s offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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