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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Washington Wizards

May 15th, 2024 at 1:35pm CST by Rory Maher

The 2023/24 season was the first of the Wizards‘ full-fledged rebuild, which was arguably long overdue after five straight campaigns of finishing between 25 and 35 wins. While expectations were very low from a results standpoint, given the dearth of talent on the roster, I don’t think Washington’s new front office, which is run by president Michael Winger and GM Will Dawkins, anticipated the team to be as non-competitive as it was for much of the season — hence the mid-season coaching change from Wes Unseld Jr. to Brian Keefe.

In some ways, the Pistons being as dreadful as they were made things a little easier on the Wizards, since Detroit endured a historic 28-game losing streak and has been abysmal for multiple years now. But the Wizards only finished with one more win and a very similar net rating (-8.7 vs. -9.0; somehow the Hornets had the worst mark in the league at -10.6, while Portland was also at -9.0).

Detroit should be a cautionary tale for Washington of the pitfalls of being a perpetual bottom-feeder. The Wizards will be looking to make incremental gains in the coming season, as there doesn’t appear to be a straightforward way to infuse this roster with star-level talent, even with the addition of the No. 2 overall pick.

That’s not to say the season was a total lost cause. Fourth-year forward Deni Avdija had a breakout season, averaging 14.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.8 APG on .506/.374/.740 shooting in 75 games (30.1 MPG). It was pretty much a best-case scenario for his development, and the four-year, $55MM rookie scale extension he signed last offseason, which begins in ’24/25 and has a declining structure, looks quite team-friendly now.

Rookie Bilal Coulibaly also showed flashes of tantalizing two-way upside in his age-19 season. As one of the youngest players in his class, the No. 7 overall pick of the 2023 draft is still early in his development, but at minimum, he looks like a promising 3-and-D player with much more room to grow.

One player who has not impressed over his first two seasons is Johnny Davis, who was the last lottery pick (No. 10 overall in 2022) made by the previous front office regime led by Tommy Sheppard. The former Big Ten Player of the Year has struggled in his G League minutes, let alone the NBA, and despite having a real opportunity to carve out playing time at the end of the season amid injuries, he was largely outperformed by players on two-way deals. At this point, it would be a little surprising if the Wizards exercise their fourth-year option on his rookie scale contract.

The Wizards’ Offseason Plan

Hiring a new head coach — Keefe is reportedly in the running and viewed by some as the leading candidate — and selecting a player with All-Star upside in the draft are the top priorities for the Wizards this offseason. The latter is easier said than done, of course.

Some people have compared the 2024 draft class with 2013, which saw Anthony Bennett go No. 1 overall. That draft had three All-Stars, including an all-time great in Giannis Antetokounmpo. It also featured quality players like CJ McCollum, Steven Adams, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Otto Porter Jr., Kelly Olynyk, and Dennis Schröder, among others.

After the lottery, general manager Will Dawkins said he believed June’s draft will produce multiple All-Stars, but they will likely take a few years to develop. That’s another clear indication Washington’s new front office is willing to be patient. A recent report indicated they’re trying to get as many low-cost chances as possible at landing a player (or players) who could develop into a star, which makes a lot of sense.

The cap hold for the No. 2 pick ($11,278,680), plus Richaun Holmes opting into his $12,876,780 player option, which is a lock to happen, means operating with cap room probably isn’t practical.

Even if the Wizards waived their non-guaranteed deals and renounced all their cap holds, they wouldn’t be a major player in free agency without attaching assets to move off unwanted salaries (Davis, Holmes, Marvin Bagley III). Going under the cap and using space would also make the Wizards lose access to their non-taxpayer mid-level exception and bi-annual exception, which are available to teams operating over the cap but under the first tax apron.

It’s more complicated than simply signing a player outright, but going the sign-and-trade route could be one option to add free-agent talent. While the Wizards didn’t really have any team-wide strengths in ’23/24, their lack of size, rebounding and interior defense were glaring weaknesses. If I were in the team’s front office, I would be pushing to try and acquire Isaiah Hartenstein in a sign-and-trade with New York.

Of course, the Knicks don’t have to agree to that, which is the primary reason sign-and-trades are more complicated. But New York also only has Hartenstein’s Early Bird rights and is limited to offering him a deal that starts at about $16MM per year. Hartenstein has proven to be a reliable and formidable defender with New York, plus he sets solid screens, crashes the glass, is an above-average passer, and he can even create for himself in a pinch. He’s only 26 years old. While there have been rumors Brooklyn center Nic Claxton could get a lot more money, I think Hartenstein is the more valuable player right now.

That said, I don’t think that scenario is particularly likely, even if having a player like Hartenstein would provide a much-needed presence in the frontcourt. For what it’s worth, The Athletic’s David Aldridge recently made a similar argument pushing for the Wizards to draft UConn center Donovan Clingan with the No. 2 overall pick.

Retaining Tyus Jones past the trade deadline was an indication that Washington will likely re-sign the veteran point guard, preferably to a short-term contract. That might mean paying him a little more annually but for fewer years (maybe he gets something like $35MM over two seasons). It also creates a mid-sized salary for matching purposes, and Jones is very reliable in what he provides, which is a consistently elite assist-to-turnover ratio and solid play-making. I also expect the Wizards to keep Landry Shamet‘s non-guaranteed $11MM deal on the books, as it expires after the ’24/25 season and could be useful in a trade.

Corey Kispert will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer and it will be interesting to see if a deal gets done. Winger and Dawkins have already shown a willingness to extend players they inherited (Avdija), and something in the range of $11-13MM annually over three or four years could be a reasonable outcome for both sides.

Kyle Kuzma will certainly pop up in trade rumors again, though it’s unclear if he’ll be moved. The declining nature of his deal — plus the fact that he’s under contract for three more years — means the Wizards can be patient in waiting for what they view as an ideal return package for the 28-year-old.

I do not think the Wizards will find any takers for Jordan Poole, who is owed $95.5MM over the next three years, and that’s fine. While Keefe’s 8-31 record was very similar to Unseld’s 7-36 mark, several players performed better when he became interim coach, including Avdija, Kispert and Poole.

If Poole continues to provide an offensive spark, it will further improve his value and increase Washington’s chances of moving him. He’s only 24 (he turns 25 next month), and I’d still much rather have his deal on the books than Bradley Beal‘s ($161MM over the next three years, with a full no-trade clause).

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

Team Options

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • No. 2 overall pick ($11,278,680 cap hold)
  • No. 26 overall pick ($2,630,040 cap hold)
  • No. 51 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $13,908,720

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Marvin Bagley III (veteran)
  • Richaun Holmes (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his player option is exercised).
  • Corey Kispert (rookie scale)
  • Landry Shamet (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible as of October 1.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Wizards’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Wizards project to be over the cap but below the tax line.

  • Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
  • Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
  • Trade exception: $12,402,000
  • Trade exception: $9,800,926
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $5,379,250
    • Expires on June 24.
  • Trade exception: $3,500,000
  • Trade exception: $1,508,547
    • Expires on July 8.
  • Trade exception: $308,380
    • Expires on June 24.
  • Trade exception: $300,000
    • Expires on June 24.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, trade exceptions don’t expire before the regular season begins.

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

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Community Shootaround: Conference Semifinal Check-In

May 14th, 2024 at 12:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Of the NBA’s four conference semifinals currently in progress, one looks all but over. The Celtics, who entered the series as heavy favorites, hold a 3-1 lead over the Cavaliers, will host Game 5 (and a potential Game 7) in Boston, and are facing a banged-up Cleveland team that might not have its leading scorer (Donovan Mitchell) or defensive anchor (Jarrett Allen) back in action for a do-or-die game on Wednesday.

The other three series, however, remain very much up in the air, with each of them tied at two games apiece.

In the East, the Pacers have overtaken the Knicks as the betting favorites in their series — BetOnline.ag now lists Indiana at -145 to advance to the conference finals, with New York at +125. A fully healthy Knicks team would presumably still be favored to win the series, but this version of the club is anything but.

Already missing Julius Randle and Bojan Bogdanovic when the second round began, New York has since lost Mitchell Robinson to a season-ending ankle injury and OG Anunoby to a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the last two games and will keep him on the shelf for Game 5. Jalen Brunson also isn’t playing at 100% and hasn’t looked quite the same since briefly exiting Game 2 due to a foot issue. He made just 37.2% of his field goal attempts and 18.2% of his three-pointers in the Knicks’ two losses in Indiana.

New York still holds the home court advantage in the series and has shown impressive resiliency over the course of an injury-plagued season. But will the Knicks finally run out of gas and succumb to a healthier and deeper Pacers team?

Over in the West, after impressive Game 4 victories, the Nuggets (-170) are once again considered the favorites to knock out the Timberwolves (+150) and the Thunder (-157) are back in the driver’s seat against the Mavericks (+137).

Denver and Minnesota combined to go 63-19 at home during the regular season, but the two Northwest rivals are 0-4 on their own courts in this series. Given the Nuggets’ championship pedigree and the advantage that the Denver elevation typically gives the home team, it’s no surprise that they’re now the popular pick to win the series, but it would be premature to rule out the Timberwolves after the way they played in those first two games of the series. The Wolves will need more from Karl-Anthony Towns, who scored just 27 points on 9-of-25 shooting (36.0%) in the team’s two home games.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, will go as far as Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving can take them, and neither guard came up big in Game 4 — the two stars combined to score just 27 points on 10-of-31 shooting (32.3%). Doncic has been hampered by knee and ankle injuries and likely won’t be 100% healthy until he gets some time this offseason to recover, but if he can give the Mavs performances like he did in Games 3 (29 points) and 4 (22 points, 15 rebounds), they’ll take it.

The Thunder, meanwhile, have had to work around the fact that starting guard Josh Giddey is something of a liability in this matchup — Giddey hasn’t played more than 17 minutes in any of the series’ four games. Oklahoma City has the depth to work around the issue, but it puts more pressure on the team’s other top play-makers and scorers, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, to carry the offensive load. Gilgeous-Alexander has delivered so far, scoring at least 29 points in all four games vs. Dallas and handing out 7.0 assists per contest.

We want to know what you think. It seems pretty safe to assume the Celtics will be in the conference finals, but which three teams will join them there?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and make your predictions!

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Detroit Pistons

May 13th, 2024 at 3:34pm CST by Luke Adams

With Cade Cunningham healthy and set to return after being limited to 12 games in 2022/23 due to a leg injury, the Pistons entered last fall with aspirations of being in the play-in mix and perhaps even getting their young core some postseason experience.

That goal seemed sensible enough through the first three games of the season, which included a pair of wins and a one-point loss. It looked – to put it mildly – increasingly unrealistic as Detroit lost its next 28 games in a row and 35 of its next 36 in total. Suddenly, the organization’s goal was simply to avoid the embarrassment of posting the NBA’s worst record of all-time. The team avoided that fate, but its 11-32 finish following a 3-36 start was hardly cause for legitimate optimism entering the summer.

It has been over four years since the Pistons launched their rebuild in earnest and three years since they landed the No. 1 overall pick that they used to draft Cunningham. The process that general manager Troy Weaver repeatedly referred to as a “restoration” rather than a rebuild was supposed to bear more fruit by now.

The lack of forward progress in Detroit has already cost Weaver his role as head of basketball operations and could result in more significant changes to the Pistons’ roster this offseason, with players once considered long-term building blocks perhaps having their futures on the roster reconsidered.

The Pistons’ Offseason Plan

The Pistons are in the market for a new head of basketball operations and until they officially make a hire, it’s hard to get a sense of exactly what direction their offseason will take. Assuming that new executive has the final say on basketball decisions, which is the expectation, the way he feels about specific players will go a long way toward determining the moves Detroit makes.

At this point though, it seems safe to assume that Cunningham isn’t going anywhere. The 22-year-old will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and looks like the Piston whose ceiling is the highest, so I’d expect the organization to make an effort to get him locked up for the long term. The only real question there is whether or not he gets the max.

As bad as the Pistons have been since Cunningham made his debut in 2021, he continues to trend in the right direction on an individual level, establishing new career highs in 2023/24 in categories like points (22.7) and assists (7.5) per game, along with field goal percentage (44.9%) and three-point percentage (35.5%). It would be nice if 2022/23 hadn’t been a lost season or if he’d been something a little closer to an All-Star level player this year, but I suspect he’s shown enough to warrant a maximum-salary investment — especially since Detroit’s cap for the years to come is pretty clear.

I’d expect Ausar Thompson, last year’s No. 5 overall pick, to remain part of the core for now too. His jump shot has a long way to go (he made just 21 of 113 three-pointers as a rookie), but he’s a terrific positional rebounder and has tremendous upside as a defender, so should develop into a valuable role player even if he never becomes a reliable threat from outside. If the three-point percentage increases, his ceiling as a player will increase along with it.

Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, the Pistons’ lottery picks in 2022, once looked like foundational pieces, but that’s not a certainty heading into the summer of 2024. There are questions about Ivey’s fit next to Cunningham and about Duren’s ability to grow into the kind of defensive anchor and rim protector Detroit would need him to be.

That’s not to say there’s not a place for them in the Pistons’ future, but it’s certainly more of an open question than it seemed to be a year or two ago, especially since the new head of basketball operations will have no particular attachment to those youngsters, having not drafted them himself. The same goes for Isaiah Stewart, who could become a trade chip on his new rookie scale extension if Detroit decides he’s not part of the long-term plan.

Of course, the Pistons will have the opportunity to add another young prospect to their core this June with the No. 5 overall pick in the draft. There has been some speculation that first-rounder could be used as a trade chip, but that will depend on which players come off the board in the top four and what kind of offers are on the table for the pick.

There’s not a ton of excitement about the top of this year’s draft class, but that means the drop-off from No. 1 to No. 5 might not be significant. The Pistons’ new president may want to put his stamp on the franchise right away by taking a swing on a potential cornerstone in that spot. A sharpshooter like Reed Sheppard, a play-making forward like Matas Buzelis, or a three-and-D forward like Zaccharie Risacher would be among the most intriguing options, assuming they’re still available.

The Pistons only have about $57MM in guaranteed money on their books for 2024/25, so even after accounting for cap holds for restricted free agent Simone Fontecchio and the No. 5 pick, they could create upwards of $65MM+ in cap room. After using up that room, they’d be able to go over the cap to re-sign Fontecchio using his Early Bird rights, which I expect they’ll do. A three-point shooter with some size, Fontecchio made a strong positive impression down the stretch after being acquired from Utah and should be in line for a new deal worth at least $12-14MM per year.

Besides Fontecchio, two other notable Pistons are eligible for restricted free agency. However, I don’t expect either former No. 2 overall pick James Wiseman or unlikely 50-point man Malachi Flynn to receive qualifying offers to make them RFAs. They simply haven’t shown enough during their first four seasons in the league to warrant it.

Now, it’s worth noting that Wiseman’s qualifying offer amount dropped by more than half, to about $7.7MM, when he failed to meet the starter criteria, so if the new head of basketball operations remains high on the big man, perhaps the Pistons will decide to take a shot on him for at least one more year. But I’d be surprised if Wiseman gets any sort of multiyear deal like the one Detroit gave Marvin Bagley III in a similar spot a couple years ago.

So what’s the plan for the rest of the cap room? Rumors in recent weeks have suggested that Tobias Harris, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, and Nic Claxton could be among the free agent targets near the top of Detroit’s board, with trade candidates like Brandon Ingram and Zach LaVine also worth keeping an eye on.

Of course, as we’ve mentioned a couple times already, the new president’s likes and dislikes could go a long way toward morphing that list into something new as the offseason progresses. Remember, Houston was viewed as a prime suitor for James Harden a year ago until the team hired a new head coach (Ime Udoka) who wasn’t all that interested in pursuing the former MVP.

The Rockets, who had the most cap space of any NBA team in 2023, ultimately ended up targeting a couple hard-nosed veterans – Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks – who were capable of making an impact on both ends of the floor and complementing Houston’s young core. The Rockets arguably overpaid both players to make sure they landed them.

With a ton of cap room and few long-term commitments on their books, the Pistons could afford to take a similar path this summer, throwing significant short-term money at their top targets and getting out from under those contracts before they’ll need to invest in second deals for most of their young players.

I expect the club to focus on wings who can shoot and big men who can play defense, so the free agents mentioned above all make sense. If they’re more interested in spreading their cap space across three or four players, then Gary Trent Jr., Royce O’Neale, Caleb Martin, Isaac Okoro, and Isaiah Hartenstein are a few others who might be fits.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Dead/Retained Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

Note: Metu’s and Umude’s salaries would remain non-guaranteed if their options are exercised.

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Pistons, Rhoden’s qualifying offer would be worth the minimum salary for a player worth two years of NBA experience (projected to be $2,093,637). It will include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 5 overall pick ($8,269,440)
  • No. 53 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $8,269,440

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Cade Cunningham (rookie scale)
  • Evan Fournier (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30 (or beyond, if his team option is exercised).
  • Quentin Grimes (rookie scale)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Pistons project to operate under the cap. They would have to renounce three trade exceptions – worth $10,489,600, $1,386,800, and $800,926 – in order to use cap room.

  • Room exception: $8,006,000
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Full 2024 NBA Draft Order

May 12th, 2024 at 3:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Now that the NBA’s draft lottery results are in, the full 2024 draft order has been set.

We’ll likely see some of these picks change hands on June 26 or 27, or in the days leading up to the draft — we’ll be sure to update the list below if and when picks are traded.

Here’s the full 2024 NBA draft order:

First Round:

  1. Atlanta Hawks
  2. Washington Wizards
  3. Houston Rockets (from Nets)
  4. San Antonio Spurs
  5. Detroit Pistons
  6. Charlotte Hornets
  7. Portland Trail Blazers
  8. San Antonio Spurs (from Raptors)
  9. Memphis Grizzlies
  10. Utah Jazz
  11. Chicago Bulls
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Rockets)
  13. Sacramento Kings
  14. Portland Trail Blazers (from Warriors)
  15. Miami Heat
  16. Philadelphia 76ers
  17. Los Angeles Lakers
  18. Orlando Magic
  19. Toronto Raptors (from Pacers)
  20. Cleveland Cavaliers
  21. New Orleans Pelicans (from Bucks)
  22. Phoenix Suns
  23. Milwaukee Bucks (from Pelicans)
  24. New York Knicks (from Mavericks)
  25. New York Knicks
  26. Washington Wizards (from Clippers)
  27. Minnesota Timberwolves
  28. Denver Nuggets
  29. Utah Jazz (from Thunder)
  30. Boston Celtics

Second Round:

  1. Toronto Raptors (from Pistons)
  2. Utah Jazz (from Wizards)
  3. Milwaukee Bucks (from Trail Blazers)
  4. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hornets)
  5. San Antonio Spurs
  6. Indiana Pacers (from Raptors)
  7. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Grizzlies)
  8. New York Knicks (from Jazz)
  9. Memphis Grizzlies (from Nets)
  10. Portland Trail Blazers (from Hawks)
  11. Philadelphia 76ers (from Bulls)
  12. Charlotte Hornets (from Rockets)
  13. Miami Heat
  14. Houston Rockets (from Warriors)
  15. Sacramento Kings
  16. Los Angeles Clippers (from Pacers)
  17. Orlando Magic
  18. San Antonio Spurs (from Lakers)
  19. Philadelphia 76ers
  20. Indiana Pacers (from Cavaliers)
  21. Indiana Pacers (from Pelicans)
  22. Washington Wizards (from Suns)
  23. Golden State Warriors (from Bucks)
  24. Detroit Pistons (from Knicks)
  25. Boston Celtics (from Mavericks)
  26. Los Angeles Lakers (from Clippers)
  27. Denver Nuggets (from Timberwolves)
  28. Memphis Grizzlies (from Thunder)
  29. Phoenix Suns (from Nuggets)
  30. Dallas Mavericks (from Celtics)
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Which Draft Prospect Should Go No. 1 Overall?

May 12th, 2024 at 12:21pm CST by Rory Maher

As we relayed in our primer, the 2024 NBA draft lottery takes place this afternoon at 2:00pm Central time. While this year’s lottery isn’t nearly as highly anticipated as last year’s, each team would still love the opportunity to land the No. 1 overall pick.

Unlike the 2023 lottery, in which every team was hoping to select French phenom Victor Wembanyama, who went on to win Rookie of the Year with the Spurs, the 2024 draft has no real consensus at the top.

For example, French wing Zaccharie Risacher is ranked No. 1 overall on ESPN’s top-100 list, but he’s No. 8 on Sam Vecenie of The Athletic’s big board, No. 9 on Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report’s board, and all the way down at No. 12 on Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer’s board.

Another French player, big man Alexandre Sarr, might be the closest thing to a lock to be selected in the top three. He’s ranked No. 2 by ESPN, No. 1 by Vecenie, No. 4 by Wasserman and No. 1 by O’Connor.

Serbian guard Nikola Topic is another prospect who appears in the top five of each list. He’s No. 5 at ESPN, No. 2 at The Athletic, No. 3 at Bleacher Report and No. 2 at The Ringer.

There’s significant variance on several other prospects. G League Ignite wing Ron Holland is ranked No. 10 by ESPN, No. 7 by Vecenie, and No. 6 by O’Connor, but he’s the top overall prospect on Wasserman’s board. UConn’s Stephon Castle is ranked No. 3 on Vecenie and O’Connor’s boards, but No. 9 on Wasserman’s and No. 10 on ESPN’s.

We want to know what you think. Which prospect do you think should be selected No. 1 overall in next month’s draft? Is it one of the players mentioned here, or someone else? Head to the comments to share your thoughts.

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2024 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 11th, 2024 at 2:16pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2024 NBA draft lottery will take place on Sunday afternoon prior to Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Knicks and Pacers. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 2:00 pm Central time.

While the 2023 draft class featured surefire No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama – widely considered to be the best prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James – 2024’s class has no clear-cut frontrunner to be the first player off the board, with Alexandre Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, and a handful of other prospects expected to be in that mix.

That lack of clarity at the top of the draft will make the results of the 2024 lottery a little less meaningful than in past years, but it’s safe to assume that the teams with a shot at the No. 1 overall pick will still be hoping their logo is the one on the final card revealed by the NBA on Sunday afternoon.

Here’s what you need to know heading into Sunday’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2024 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Detroit Pistons
  2. Washington Wizards
  3. Charlotte Hornets
  4. Portland Trail Blazers
  5. San Antonio Spurs
  6. Toronto Raptors
    • Note: The Spurs will receive this pick if it falls out of the top six (54.2%).
  7. Memphis Grizzlies
  8. Utah Jazz
    • Note: The Thunder will receive this pick if it falls out of the top 10 (0.5%).
  9. Houston Rockets
  10. Atlanta Hawks
  11. Chicago Bulls
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder
    • Note: The Rockets will receive this pick if it moves into the top four (7.2%).
  13. Sacramento Kings
  14. Portland Trail Blazers
    • Note: The Warriors will receive this pick if it moves into the top four (3.4%).

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Pistons and Wizards have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those two teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

From there, the Hornets (13.3%), Trail Blazers (13.2%), Spurs (10.5%), Raptors (9.0%), Grizzlies (7.5%), Jazz (6%), and Rockets (6% across two picks) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall selection.

When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.

Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

Still, there haven’t been many major surprises in the years since the new format was implemented.

The Pelicans moved up from No. 7 in the lottery standings in 2019 to claim the first overall pick, which they used on Zion Williamson. Since then though, every team to win the draft lottery has been in the top three in the lottery standings.

Perhaps we’re due for a more significant shake-up in 2024. There’s a 18.5% chance that a team in the back half of the lottery (Nos. 8-14) wins the No. 1 pick. That works out to better than 1-in-6 odds, and this will be the sixth time the NBA has employed its revamped lottery format.

For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

For full details on the current lottery format, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

The Raptors traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Spurs, but would keep that selection if it lands within the top six. There’s a 45.8% chance that will happen and a 54.2% chance it will slip to No. 7 or below and be sent to San Antonio. If Toronto retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2025 first-round pick (top-six protected) to the Spurs.

The Jazz would owe the Thunder their first-round pick if it lands outside of the top 10, but since Utah will enter Sunday at No. 8 in the lottery standings, there’s only a 0.5% chance of that happening. In all likelihood, the Jazz will instead owe their top-10 protected 2025 first-rounder to Oklahoma City.

The Rockets acquired the Nets‘ unprotected first-round pick, which will likely land at either No. 9 (50.7%) or No. 10 (25.9%). However, Houston’s own first-rounder has a 92.8% chance of being sent to the Thunder. It will probably be the No. 12 pick, but if it moves into the top four (7.2%), the Rockets would keep it.

Finally, the Warriors‘ first-round pick, which projects to be No. 14, will almost certainly be sent to the Trail Blazers. There’s a 96.6% chance it will be the 14th overall pick and be sent to Portland and just a 3.4% chance it will move into the top four and be retained by Golden State.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

  1. Detroit Pistons

    • On stage: Ausar Thompson
    • Lottery room: Jon Phelps (senior director of basketball strategy)
  2. Washington Wizards

  3. Charlotte Hornets

  4. Portland Trail Blazers

  5. San Antonio Spurs

    • On stage: Brian Wright (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Brandon Leibsohn (senior manager of basketball strategy and legal affairs)
  6. Toronto Raptors

    • On stage: Scottie Barnes
    • Lottery room: Dan Tolzman (assistant GM / VP of player personnel)
  7. Memphis Grizzlies

    • On stage: Tayshaun Prince (VP of basketball affairs)
    • Lottery room: Zach Kleiman (president of basketball operations)
  8. Utah Jazz

    • On stage: Thurl Bailey (former Jazz player / current Jazz broadcaster)
    • Lottery room: Danny Ainge (CEO)
  9. Houston Rockets

    • On stage: Ime Udoka (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Sam Strantz (associate legal counsel)
  10. Atlanta Hawks

    • On stage: Landry Fields (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Daniel Starkman (VP of player personnel)
  11. Chicago Bulls

  12. Oklahoma City Thunder
    • On stage: None
    • Lottery room: None
    • Note: The Thunder won’t have any representatives on hand because they don’t have a path to a top-four pick.
  13. Sacramento Kings

    • On stage: Keegan Murray
    • Lottery room: John Kehriotis (minority owner / executive board member)
  14. Golden State Warriors

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Mid-Level, Room, Bi-Annual Exceptions Will Have New Uses This Offseason

May 9th, 2024 at 9:47pm CST by Luke Adams

Prior to the 2024 offseason, NBA teams had only been permitted to use the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, room exception, and bi-annual exception to sign free agents or to promote two-way players to standard contracts. Those exceptions could be split among multiple players, but they couldn’t be used for any other purpose besides giving a free agent – or a player being promoted from a two-way deal – a contract.

That will change this summer, as we previously detailed in our glossary entries on the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions. Beginning in July, teams with access to one or more of those exceptions will be permitted to use them to acquire players via trade or waiver claim. Simply using them to sign free agents will still be allowed, but the exceptions will expand to offer clubs more flexibility going forward.

A team using one of these exceptions to trade for a player won’t have to send out any matching salary, but will have to ensure that the incoming player’s contract fits into the exception, both in terms of his current salary and the number of years remaining on his contract.

For instance, the bi-annual exception projects to be worth $4,681,000 in 2024/25, with a maximum length of two years. That means it could be used to trade for a player like Heat forward Nikola Jovic, who will earn $2.46MM next season and $4.45MM in ’25/26. But it couldn’t be used to acquire Trayce Jackson-Davis — the Warriors big man won’t have a cap hit higher than $2.4MM on his current deal, but he’s under contract for three more seasons, exceeding the two-year BAE limit.

Because only the player’s current-year salary must fit within the exception’s limits, a player like Bulls wing Dalen Terry – who will earn $3.51MM in ’24/25 – could be acquired using the bi-annual exception this July, even though his $5.4MM salary for ’25/26 exceeds what a team using the BAE could pay a free agent signee in his second season.

Based on the NBA’s projection of a $141MM salary cap for 2024/25, the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which can run for up to four years, will be worth $12,859,000. The three-year room exception projects to start at $8,006,000.

Crucially, these new rules will not apply to the taxpayer mid-level exception. That two-year form of the mid-level, which projects to start at $5,183,000 in ’24/25, will still only be usable for free agent signings.

Finally, it’s worth noting that a team that uses either the non-taxpayer mid-level exception or bi-annual exception to accommodate a trade or waiver claim will be hard-capped for that season at the first tax apron, so it won’t be an option for teams that plan to surpass that apron.

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Community Shootaround: Celtics/Cavaliers Series

May 7th, 2024 at 2:10pm CST by Luke Adams

No second-round series in the this year’s NBA playoffs is viewed as more one-sided than Celtics vs. Cavaliers. Ahead of Game 1 on Tuesday, betting site BetOnline.ag has made Boston a -2000 favorite to advance, listing Cleveland at +1000 to pull off the upset.

Based on what we’ve seen this season from Boston, those odds don’t come as a major surprise. At 64-18, the Celtics won seven more games than any other team in the NBA and 14 more than any Eastern Conference rival. They put up the third-best net rating in NBA history (+11.7), finishing with the league’s top offensive rating (122.2) and second-best defensive rating (110.6).

In Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics have a starting lineup full of two-way impact players, with no weak links on either end of the floor. And while they’re not exactly loaded with depth, the first few players off their bench – Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser – all made positive contributions this season.

The Celtics experienced a minor hiccup in round one, losing Game 2 at home to a Miami team that was missing star forward Jimmy Butler, but they bounced back admirably with dominant victories in Games 3, 4, and 5, holding the Heat to between 84 and 88 points in each of those contests to close out the series in convincing fashion.

The Cavaliers, on the other hand, had a middle-of-the-pack net rating this season (their +2.5 mark ranked 12th in the league), and their 48-34 record was buoyed by 17-1 run in January and February. They went 13-18 to close the regular season and then needed seven games to get past an Orlando team that outscored them overall.

Donovan Mitchell was excellent in that first-round series, averaging 28.7 points per game, but he’s still dealing with a leg injury and the Cavs struggled to get much secondary offense going against the Magic, with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Caris LeVert, and Max Strus all scoring well below their regular season averages.

It doesn’t help matters that the team has been missing starting center Jarrett Allen, who has been out for the last three games due to a rib contusion, and Dean Wade, a rotation forward who likely would have been playing regular minutes in the playoffs.

On paper, it looks like a one-sided matchup, but there are a few arguments against penciling in the Celtics for a sweep. For one, they’re missing Porzingis, who may remain on the shelf for the entire second round while he recovers from a calf strain. They can slot Horford into Porzingis’ starting spot, but he’s not as dynamic an offensive player, and it will mean relying more on reserves who barely played in the first round, such as Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman.

The Cavaliers also played the Celtics competitively during the regular season, with all three games between the two teams decided by single-digits. Cleveland lost a pair of contests in Boston, but beat the C’s at home in March. That victory should give the Cavs a little confidence entering Game 1, as should the fact that they were able to get a monkey off their back by winning a playoff series this spring after a disappointing showing in 2023 — that could remove some pressure entering round two.

The Celtics have their own playoff demons to reckon with. They lost the Eastern Conference finals to the Heat last spring as heavy favorites and are in championship-or-bust mode this year after falling short with rosters led by Tatum and Brown for the past several seasons. A second-round loss would be a disaster for the franchise, so if they hit another snag like they did in Game 2 vs. Miami last round, they’ll have to respond like they did against the Heat and not let the Cavs start to get comfortable.

We want to know what you think. Will the Celtics have any problems against the Cavs or do you expect Boston to advance without too much trouble? Is there any chance of a Cleveland upset? Are the Celtics bound for the NBA Finals?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions!

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Community Shootaround: Thunder/Mavericks Series

May 6th, 2024 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

As we noted when we discussed the Nuggets/Timberwolves showdown last week, that second-round battle between two Northwest rivals has the potential to be one of the very best series we get during these NBA playoffs. But the other Western Conference semifinal, which begins on Tuesday, shouldn’t be overlooked — Thunder vs. Mavericks is a marquee matchup in its own right.

The Mavericks finished the regular season as the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference, but they weren’t a typical five seed. Dallas came into its own during the second half of the season, particularly after acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline to solidify the rotation.

From March 7 through April 10, when they locked up the No. 5 spot, no team had a better record (16-2) or a better defensive rating (106.0) than the Mavericks, and only Boston’s +13.0 net rating was better than Dallas’ +12.2 mark during that window. The new-look Mavs appeared to be a team peaking at the right time, and their first-round performance against the Clippers did little to dispel that notion.

With Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving leading the charge on offense and Washington, Gafford, Derrick Jones, and Dereck Lively among those playing key complementary roles, the Mavericks have arguably their most well-rounded roster during the Doncic era and appear capable of legitimate contention.

But the Mavs will miss frontcourt stalwart Maxi Kleber, who will be unavailable for the Western semifinals due to a shoulder injury. And even with a healthy Kleber, it’s unlikely Dallas would be favored to beat a Thunder team that earned the No. 1 seed in the West this season and then made a four-game sweep of the Pelicans look easy in round one.

The Thunder are the youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series, per ESPN (Twitter link) — everyone who plays regular rotation minutes for Oklahoma City is 25 years old or younger. It often takes some time for teams that young to learn how to win in the playoffs, but the Thunder should head into round two with plenty of confidence after dismantling New Orleans.

Oklahoma City has its own MVP finalist – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – to counter Doncic’s impact, and while none of the other players on the roster can match Irving’s impressive career résumé, forward Jalen Williams (19.1 PPG on .540/.327/.814 shooting during the regular season) and center Chet Holmgren (16.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.3 BPG) are rising stars, Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace are three-and-D standouts, Josh Giddey is a talented play-maker whose outside shot has become more reliable, and Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and Jaylin Williams provide legitimate depth.

The Mavericks enjoyed an impressive second-half run, but the Thunder were an elite team all season long, ranking second only to the Celtics in overall net rating (+7.3). Oklahoma City was also the only club besides Boston to rank in the NBA’s top five in both offensive rating (third) and defensive rating (fourth). And the Thunder will hold home-court advantage over the Mavs, which isn’t insignificant, given that OKC’s 33-8 home record during the season tied for the best mark in the West.

The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag view this series as the closest call of the four second-round matchups entering Game 1. Currently, the Thunder are slight favorites at -130, but the Mavs (+110) are almost even money to win the series.

We want to know what you think. Are you counting on the Thunder to continue their meteoric rise by booking a spot in the Western Conference finals, or is Dallas positioned to pull off the upset here? Do you expect the team that wins this series to make the NBA Finals or fall to the winner of Denver/Minnesota?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts and predictions!

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Hoops Rumors Glossary: Maximum Salary

May 6th, 2024 at 9:02am CST by Luke Adams

There are many NBA players technically on maximum-salary contracts, but most of those players didn’t earn identical salaries this season, making the league’s “maximum salary” something of a misnomer. While each NBA player has a maximum salary that he can earn in a given season, that number varies from player to player, with a handful of factors playing a part in determining the exact figure.

The primary factor in determining a player’s maximum salary is his years of service. If a player has been in the NBA for six seasons or fewer, he can earn up to 25% of the salary cap in the first year of his deal. Players with seven to nine years of experience can earn up to 30%, while veterans with 10 or more years in the NBA are eligible for up to 35% of the cap. In 2023/24, the salary cap was $136,021,000, meaning the maximum salaries are as follows:

Years in NBA Salary
0-6 $34,005,250
7-9 $40,806,300
10+ $47,607,350

The figures above explain why Fred VanVleet, who signed a maximum-salary contract with the Rockets last July following his seventh NBA season, earned a salary of $40,806,300 this season. But they don’t explain why Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns, who was also in that 7-9 year window and is on a max contract of his own, made just $36,016,200.

The reason Towns’ maximum salary is a few million shy of VanVleet’s is that those league-wide maximum salary figures only apply to the first year of a multiyear contract.

When a player signs a maximum contract, he can receive annual raises of up to either 8% or 5%, depending on whether he signs with his previous team or a new team. So by the third, fourth, or fifth year of his contract, he could be earning significantly more or less than his updated max for that season, depending on the rate the salary cap has been increasing and whether or not he has moved into a new “years of service” group.

Towns signed his first maximum-salary contract extension in 2018 and it went into effect in 2019/20, when he had fewer than six years of NBA experience. Although he has received annual 8% raises since then, those raises haven’t been enough to keep up with the annual cap growth and with his move into the 7-9 year window. As a result, he earned about $4.8MM less than his actual max in 2023/24, despite being on a “max contract.”

Towns signed a new contract extension in 2022 that will go into effect in 2024/25, so he’ll receive a major pay bump heading into next season and will comfortably surpass VanVleet’s annual earnings at that time.

Here are a couple more ways a player’s usual maximum salary can fluctuate:

  • A free agent’s maximum salary is always at least 105% of his previous salary. For example, Lakers star LeBron James earned $47,607,350 this past season. If he were to decline his player option for 2024/25 in order to sign a new contract, he’d be eligible to receive a starting salary of up to $49,987,718 (105% of this year’s salary), even though that figure projects to exceed 35% of the ’24/25 cap ($49,350,000).
  • In certain situations, players eligible for new contracts can earn the maximum salary for the level above the one they’d typically fall into. A player coming off his rookie scale contract can earn up to 30% of the cap instead of 25% if he meets certain performance criteria. A veteran can become eligible to earn up to 35% of the cap instead of 30% if he meets the same criteria, which are related to MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, or All-NBA honors.

Because a player can receive a raise of up to 40% in the first year of a veteran extension, there are some instances when a player who signs an extension not necessarily designed to be a maximum-salary contract sees the first-year salary in his new deal adjusted downward based on that year’s cap. Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard is one example. His new extension, which will begin in 2024/25, calls for a first-year salary of $52,368,085, which is a raise in the neighborhood of 15% on this season’s $45,640,084 salary.

However, because next year’s league-wide maximum salary for players with 10+ years of NBA experience projects to be $49,350,000 (which would be more than a 5% raise for Leonard), he can’t exceed that figure. That $49.35MM figure will be the value of his 2024/25 salary if the cap comes in at $141MM, as estimated. And Kawhi’s three-year extension, which was originally said to be worth over $152MM, will actually end up closer to $149MM.

A player who signs a maximum-salary contract can receive a trade kicker as part of his deal, but he can’t cash in on that bonus for any amount beyond his maximum salary in a given league year. For instance, Trae Young‘s max-salary contract with the Hawks features a 15% trade kicker, but if he had been traded this season, he wouldn’t have been eligible to receive that bonus, since he was already earning his maximum salary of $40,064,220.

A player on a maximum-salary deal that includes a trade kicker can potentially cash in on that bonus if he’s dealt later in that contract. For example, Brandon Ingram is on a max contract, but – like Towns – was earning well below his actual max in 2023/24, year four of that five-year deal. If he had been moved by the Pelicans this season, he would’ve been eligible to take advantage of his trade kicker. That remains true for Ingram going forward.

A maximum-salary player whose team finishes the season below the minimum salary floor isn’t eligible to receive a share when the team distributes that money to its players, since his max salary for that year can’t be exceeded.

The current figures for maximum salaries in 2024/25 are as follows, based on the NBA’s projection of a $141MM salary cap:

Years in NBA Salary
0-6 $35,250,000
7-9 $42,300,000
10+ $49,350,000

These figures will apply to players who previously signed maximum salary extensions that will go into effect in ’24/25, including Towns, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, LaMelo Ball, and Jaylen Brown.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.

Earlier versions of this post were previously published by Luke Adams and Chuck Myron.

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