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Five Key Offseason Questions: Los Angeles Clippers

June 6th, 2019 at 11:00am CST by Luke Adams

When the last member of the Clippers‘ Lob City Big Three departed during the 2018 offseason at the same time LeBron James joined the Lakers, the Clips appeared poised to once again become an afterthought in Los Angeles.

Instead, head coach Doc Rivers led a team without a true star to 48 wins and a spot in the postseason, even winning a pair of games against the two-time defending champion Warriors in the first round. Even though the season didn’t end with a deep playoff run, it was a massive success for the Clippers, who continued to shape a positive culture, began to develop long-term cornerstones like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Landry Shamet, and made a strong case for why top free agents should seriously consider joining the team this offseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will Kawhi Leonard become a Clipper?

The NBA’s most inscrutable star has said so little about his upcoming free agency that it’s virtually impossible to even read between the lines of the comments he has made. Instead, we’ve had to rely all season on anonymous sources and second-hand reports, most of which have said the same thing: The Clippers look like the frontrunners to land Leonard.

Many of the reporters who have addressed Leonard’s free agency throughout the year have acknowledged themselves that trying to read the tea leaves on Kawhi is futile, but as I pointed out last week when I discussed the rumors linking Kevin Durant to the Knicks, these reports aren’t being pulled out of thin air. If enough people in the know are saying the same thing, there’s generally something to it.

Leonard has long been linked to his hometown of Los Angeles, and there have been whispers that playing second fiddle to LeBron on the Lakers wouldn’t appeal to him, so the Clippers rumblings make sense. He’d be an ideal fit for a team on the rise that already has a pair of promising young centers (Montrezl Harrell and Ivica Zubac) and an impressive trio of guards (Gilgeous-Alexander, Shamet, and Lou Williams) under control, with the flexibility to add more weapons.

The Clippers have also made it clear all year that they want Leonard. Reports early in the season indicated that the team had a representative in attendance at many Raptors games, and word broke recently that the Clips even explored the feasibility of buying a portion of the rights to Kawhi’s “Klaw” logo, which is still owned by Nike. They’ve been preparing their pitch for a while.

Still, the Raptors won’t let Leonard get away easily. They can offer him more years and more money than any rival suitor, but will also be willing to accommodate a shorter-term deal if that’s Kawhi’s preference. Throw in the fact that Leonard has reached an NBA Finals in his first season in Toronto and there’s a case to be made that the Raptors are an even better fit than the Clips. With Leonard unlikely to tip his hand until after free agency gets underway, we’ll have to wait a few more weeks to see which direction he’s leaning.

2. If the Clippers can’t land Leonard, which free agents will they turn their attention to?

The Clippers can carve out upwards of $56MM in cap room fairly easily, even without making any cost-cutting moves. They have the means to go after whomever they want on the open market, and they’ll have an attractive situation to sell. Even if they can’t reel in Leonard, the Clippers should have the ear of other top free agents.

The most obvious target – one who probably deserves co-billing at the top of the team’s wish list alongside Leonard – is Durant. There has been speculation for months that KD’s days in Golden State are numbered, which opens the door for a team like the Clips to make a run at the two-time Finals MVP. A reunion with the Warriors is still in play, and teams like the Nets and Knicks will aggressively pursue Durant, but the Clips shouldn’t be ruled out.

After Leonard and Durant, the Clippers’ list of top targets gets murkier. I’m skeptical that the club will have serious interest in point guards like Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker, given SGA’s potential. L.A.’s in-season trade of Tobias Harris suggested the team wasn’t committed to him long-term. Klay Thompson would be a great fit, but he’s much less likely than Durant to leave the Dubs.

Among the top tier or two of 2019’s unrestricted free agents, that leaves Jimmy Butler and Khris Middleton. I think both players would be strong additions for the Clippers, but in order to realistically have a shot at either them, the franchise would likely have to a put a four-year, maximum-salary offer on the table. After meticulously clearing their cap over the last couple years, the Clips may not want to surrender that flexibility by going all-in on a borderline All-Star.

3. Will the Clippers trade any of their top assets?

If the Clippers can’t land a star on the free agent market, their best bet would be on the trade market, where Anthony Davis is expected to be on the block this summer. With several teams gunning for the All-Star big man though, the Clips would have to make a substantial offer to have a realistic shot at him.

As Chris Crouse outlined in his breakdown of the most valuable assets among Davis’ top suitors, Los Angeles has some strong pieces. Shamet, Williams, and Harrell are all on extremely team-friendly deals and are capable of immediately slotting into any team’s rotation. The Clippers don’t have a first-round pick in this year’s draft, but hold extra selections in future years, including the Sixers’ first-rounder in 2020 (lottery protected) and the Heat’s 2021 first-rounder (unprotected).

The Clippers could put together a tantalizing package using some combination of those players and picks, especially if they’re willing to use their cap room to take on Solomon Hill‘s contract along with Davis. But it’s hard to picture the Pelicans being satisfied with a Clippers package that doesn’t include Gilgeous-Alexander.

While SGA’s rookie stats (10.8 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.8 RPG) don’t jump off the page, his shooting efficiency (.476/.367/.800) and his defensive abilities suggest he’s capable of stardom. He’s probably the closest thing the Clippers have to an untouchable piece, and unless they can count on acquiring another star or two to join Davis in L.A., the Clips will be extremely reluctant to put him on the table in any trade talks.

The Clippers’ other players – including Jerome Robinson and Danilo Gallinari – could probably be had in the right deal, but I don’t expect the team to part with any of its more valuable contracts unless a clear upgrade is available.

4. Will Danilo Gallinari return to the Clippers?

Gallinari is one of the most interesting pieces on the Clippers’ roster. He’s the only player currently slated to earn more than $8MM for the team next season, and while his expiring contract is sizable ($22.6MM), it’s not a negative asset by any means.

Gallinari is coming off a bounce-back year in which he stayed relatively healthy and received legitimate All-Star consideration, averaging career highs in PPG (19.8), RPG (6.1), and FG% (.463), among other categories. For a team that whiffs on its top targets in free agency, acquiring Gallinari with its leftover cap room isn’t a bad fallback option — especially if the Clips are just looking to get off his salary and don’t require a major return.

Of course, there are only a handful of specific scenarios in which the Clippers would want to shed Gallinari’s expiring deal. If they knock it out of the park in free agency and convince two maximum-salary players to join them, Gallinari’s contract would need to be moved to create more cap space.

Gallinari could also be the primary salary-matching piece in a trade for a star. Davis’ $27MM salary, for instance, isn’t far off from Gallinari’s cap hit. Starting a package with the Italian forward would make it much simpler to build an offer, since the Clippers wouldn’t have to worry about throwing four or five lesser-paid players into a deal to match AD’s cap figure.

If those opportunities don’t arise in free agency or on the trade market, the Clippers probably won’t mind bringing Gallinari back. But his expiring deal and his career year in 2018/19 certainly make him one of the offseason’s more intriguing candidates.

5. Which of their own free agents will the Clippers prioritize?

While they may enter free agency focused on big fish like Leonard and Durant, the Clippers have a few pretty good players of their own headed for the open market. I don’t expect the Clips to pursue new deals with Wilson Chandler, Garrett Temple, or JaMychal Green too aggressively, but if they can bring back Zubac, Patrick Beverley, and Rodney McGruder at reasonable rates, they’ll likely try to do so.

Zubac, whom the Clippers stole from the Lakers in a deadline deal, and McGruder, who was claimed off waivers at the end of the season when the Heat got desperate to duck the tax, are restricted free agents. Their combined cap holds only total about $5MM, so the Clips can issue qualifying offers to both players and still have more than enough cap room for a maximum-salary free agent.

If Zubac or McGruder gets an offer sheet that the Clippers are uncomfortable with matching, it’d be easy enough to part ways with them, but their RFA status should give the club some leverage in contract negotiations.

As for Beverley, he’ll be unrestricted and will likely draw interest from teams around the league in need of a veteran point guard, including the Bulls, Suns, and a handful of others. After missing most of the 2017/18 season with a significant knee injury, Beverley proved in 2018/19 that he was fully healthy, averaging 27.4 MPG in 78 games for L.A., with a .397 3PT% and exceptional perimeter defense.

Re-signing Beverley to share point guard duties with Gilgeous-Alexander would be great if the Clippers can pull it off, but with SGA likely prepared to take on a larger role in his sophomore season, the team shouldn’t get into a bidding war if the cost for Beverley gets too high.

Check out the Los Angeles Clippers’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest Series

June 5th, 2019 at 2:10pm CST by Luke Adams

As we approach the 2019 NBA draft and free agent period, Hoops Rumors has been examining each team’s cap situation, breaking down the guaranteed salaries, non-guaranteed salaries, options, free agents, and cap holds on the books for each of the league’s teams.

We’re also previewing each club’s offseason in more depth, but these salary cap digests provide a bare-bones look at where teams are at with their spending, how much cap room they figure to have this summer, and which players may not be safe, given their contract situations.

You can find the link to your favorite team’s offseason salary cap digest below. You can find this post anytime on the right-hand sidebar of our desktop site under “Hoops Rumors Features,” or under “Features” in our mobile menu.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic

Central

Southeast

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest

Pacific

Southwest

Five Key Offseason Questions: Miami Heat

June 5th, 2019 at 11:02am CST by Luke Adams

The ripple effect of the 2016 and 2017 offseasons continues to impact the Heat, who invested substantially in Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, James Johnson, Dion Waiters, and Kelly Olynyk during those two summers. While some of those players continued to provide Miami with positive contributions in 2018/19, none were full-time starters and three ranked outside the team’s top eight in minutes per game.

With their cap overrun by lucrative salaries for good – but not great – veterans, the Heat have had a tough time acquiring true impact players in recent years, and that lack of high-end talent has hurt them on the court. Despite having one of the NBA’s deepest rosters – 12 players started at least 10 games for Miami in 2018/19 – the club has suffered from not having a star who can take over and close games.

The result? A 39-43 record and a spot in the lottery this season, as the Heat missed the playoffs for the third time in five years since LeBron James‘ departure.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How much longer will Pat Riley be patient with this roster?

It wasn’t long ago that the Heat were perennial contenders for top free agents on the open market, but after missing out on Kevin Durant in 2016 and Gordon Hayward in 2017, team president Pat Riley decided to pull back.

Riley’s investments that summer in James Johnson, Waiters, and Olynyk – all of whom received four-year contracts worth north of $11MM per year – were a reflection of that adjusted philosophy. The Heat weren’t giving up on the pursuit of star players entirely, but they didn’t want to let their own contributors get away, and figured re-signing them could open up trade opportunities down the road.

The Heat have had the occasional opportunity to make a splash on the trade market since then – they were considered frontrunners for Jimmy Butler at one point last fall – but those big contracts that could have been used for salary matching haven’t been as team-friendly as Miami had hoped. As a result, the Heat have been mostly locked into their current roster, with swaps of bad contracts (like Tyler Johnson’s for Ryan Anderson‘s) representing the only real trades available to them.

After a mediocre showing in 2018/19, it’s hard to imagine Riley signing up for more of the same in 2019/20, so it’ll be interesting to see how aggressively the Heat try to get out from under some of their pricier deals this summer.

Whiteside, Anderson, and Goran Dragic are entering contract years (assuming Whiteside and Dragic exercise their player options, as expected), which might make them easier to move. But it’s not clear how many of Miami’s veterans have positive trade value, so the club will have to extensively evaluate the risk and reward of any deal.

2. Should the Heat be willing to cut into their projected 2020 cap room with a trade?

Riley spoke in February about 2020 being the Heat’s “[cap] room year,” suggesting that the team will once again be able to pursue top-end options on the free agent market next summer. That sounds good in theory, but there are two issues with the plan in practice.

For one, it’s not clear how much room the Heat will actually have available. Once options are accounted for, Miami projects to have nearly $72MM on its books in 2020/21 for just six players. That’s not bad, but it’s certainly not enough for the two max slots that Riley predicted the Heat would have available. Even if the Heat don’t add any multiyear money this offseason, they project to have just enough space for one max player.

The more pressing concern for the Heat is that it’s unclear which players they’re expecting to target in 2020. Currently, that year’s free agent class doesn’t exactly look like a star-studded group — Anthony Davis is an impressive headliner, but if he gets traded to a preferred landing spot this summer, he may not even reach the open market. Other top options include Draymond Green, Kyle Lowry, and maybe guys like DeMar DeRozan and Andre Drummond if they turn down lucrative player options.

Perhaps one of this year’s elite free agents signs a one-year deal and returns to the market in 2020, or maybe a restricted free agent becomes available for the Heat. But it’s risky to bank on either of those scenarios.

That’s why I don’t think the Heat should be averse to the idea of adding a long-term salary to their books in a trade this summer. If the club can’t necessarily count on making a big splash in free agency in 2020, sacrificing some of that projected space to acquire an impact player right now makes sense to me.

Maybe the Heat won’t be willing to take on a contract like Chris Paul‘s, but a deal like Mike Conley‘s would be more manageable, and would put the Heat on track to have their “room year” in 2021, when virtually all their most expensive contracts expire.

3. Which Heat players are the most logical trade candidates?

It seems inevitable that the Heat will make at least one trade this offseason, but identifying the player(s) most likely to be moved hinges on knowing what their priorities are. If they’re committed to cutting payroll, Dragic, James Johnson, and Olynyk may be the best trade candidates on the roster — Dragic’s contract is expiring, while Johnson and Olynyk should have decent enough trade value despite large cap hits.

If the Heat remain committed to creating cap room for 2020, it might make more sense to hang onto Dragic and Whiteside unless they can be dealt for other expiring contracts. Instead of shopping those expiring deals, the Heat could focus on moving multiyear contracts like Johnson’s and Waiters’ in an effort to create more flexibility for the ’20 offseason.

While including a younger player like Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow, or Bam Adebayo in a trade package would make it much easier for the Heat to dump salary and escape tax territory, I don’t expect the club to go that route. Miami was reluctant to part with those players even when a star like Butler was available via trade — the team won’t surrender them now just to improve its financial situation.

4. How will the Heat use the No. 13 overall pick?

The Heat are never shy about trading their first-round picks, and don’t end up in the lottery too often, so the No. 13 selection in this year’s draft represents a rare opportunity to add a young, controllable prospect to their core.

The 2019 draft class isn’t considered particularly strong, so the Heat probably shouldn’t bet on a player like Donovan Mitchell (2017’s No. 13 pick) falling to them. But there will be talented players available at the back end of the lottery, even if the best-case scenario at that point may realistically be a solid starter or valuable role player rather than future All-Star.

With few definitive long-term building blocks in place, Miami shouldn’t have to worry much about positional overlap, so the franchise is in good position to go after the best prospect available.

A handful of promising young forwards, including Rui Hachimura, PJ Washington, and Brandon Clarke are projected to come off the board in the back end of the lottery, and at least one should be on the board when Miami picks. If the team prefers a wing, Romeo Langford and Kevin Porter Jr. will be options. Tyler Herro may be a reach at No. 13, but his shooting stroke could intrigue a Heat team that ranked in the bottom third of the NBA in three-point percentage.

Attaching this pick to an unwanted contract or two in a trade to cut costs is an option for the Heat, but I’d be surprised if the team went that route rather than simply taking the opportunity to add an inexpensive prospect to its roster.

5. What will the Heat do with Ryan Anderson?

I glossed over Anderson in the section above on trade candidates, but he’d certainly fit the bill. The Heat would love to remove his $21.26MM salary (guaranteed for $15.64MM) from their books if they can.

Given how Anderson’s value has plummeted over the last year or two though, I don’t expect the Heat to get any offers they like for him. Assuming they’re unwilling to attach an asset to grease the wheels on a potential deal, the Heat will have three options with Anderson — keep him, waive him, or waive him using the stretch provision.

Keeping him looks like the least likely scenario, since he’d receive an extra $5.6MM+ in guaranteed money if he remains on the roster beyond July 10. Waiving and stretching him has its appeal, since it would reduce the club’s 2019/20 payroll by more than $10MM, which would be a big step toward getting out of the tax.

Waiving Anderson without stretching him is another realistic path for the Heat, especially if they can get him to accept a modest buyout. That would allow the team to confine Anderson’s cap hit to one season, avoiding having it cut into their projected cap space for 2020 (or 2021). For that to be a viable solution though, Miami will likely have shed salary elsewhere — otherwise, Anderson’s substantial dead money in ’19/20 could contribute to a problematic tax bill.

Check out the Miami Heat’s offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Los Angeles Lakers

June 4th, 2019 at 9:57am CST by Luke Adams

While they may not have claimed the title of the NBA’s most dysfunctional big-market franchise in 2018/19, the Lakers certainly gave the Knicks a run for their money. Despite LeBron James‘ arrival in Los Angeles, the club missed out on a playoff berth, and midseason Anthony Davis trade rumors left virtually everyone on the roster unhappy.

The end of the regular season could, in theory, have provided a quiet period for the Lakers to regroup and stay out of the spotlight. Instead, president of basketball operations Magic Johnson shocked the basketball world by abruptly resigning before the club’s final home game; a head coaching search for Luke Walton‘s replacement dragged on and ended with the Lakers hiring their apparent third choice; and a bombshell ESPN report portrayed Lakers ownership and management in a particularly unflattering light.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Who will the Lakers target on the free agent market?

When the Lakers decided to roll over the rest of their cap room last year after signing James, they presumably had visions of using that room to land a superstar like Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard in 2019. That sort of major splash seems less likely at this point.

Based on reports that have surfaced over the course of the year, neither Durant nor Leonard seems overly enthusiastic about the idea of teaming up with James in L.A. In fact, both players have been linked more frequently to the Clippers than the Lakers, with the Knicks and Nets also viewed as threats, as well as the Warriors (for Durant) and Raptors (for Leonard).

If the Lakers don’t believe they have a serious shot at either of those top free agents, they’ll likely turn to the next tier, though that group presents its own set of challenges. Los Angeles native Klay Thompson would be a great fit for the Lakers, for instance, but he appears unlikely to leave the Warriors. Kyrie Irving has won a title with LeBron in the past, but – even after he expressed some regret about pushing to get out from under James’ shadow in Cleveland – the idea that he’d reunite with him two years later seems like a long shot.

Kemba Walker and Jimmy Butler would make sense for L.A., but they’re each 29 years old, so offering either of them a four-year, maximum-salary contract would be a risk. Tobias Harris and Khris Middleton are possible targets, but they don’t necessarily possess the kind of star power the Lakers are seeking.

While the Lakers have plenty of potential options, they don’t appear to have the inside track on a superstar free agent like they did last year when they were cited as a frontrunner for LeBron for months leading up to July 1.

2. Do the Lakers still have a legit shot to acquire Anthony Davis?

Of course, the star linked most often to the Lakers this year is Davis, who won’t be a free agent this summer. If they want to land him during the 2019 offseason, the Lakers will have to do so via trade.

Based on the reported offers the Pelicans turned down in February, Los Angeles’ odds of trading for Davis don’t look great. The Lakers allegedly put most of their young core on the table, along with multiple draft picks, but the Pels didn’t budge, preferring to wait until the offseason when the Celtics and other teams might be able to offer more favorable packages.

The good news for the Lakers? General manager Dell Demps is no longer running the show in New Orleans, and new Pelicans head of basketball operations David Griffin may be more amenable to making a deal. The bad news? It’s not clear if the Pels will be willing to deal with the Lakers at all. There have been whispers that New Orleans’ ownership group was unhappy about the way Davis’ camp was seemingly trying to steer the big man to the Lakers before the deadline, and essentially doesn’t want to reward those efforts.

I have a hard time believing the Pelicans would be petty enough to trade Davis somewhere else if the Lakers make the best offer, but it remains to be seen whether L.A.’s package will be strong enough. Securing the No. 4 pick in the draft improved the team’s collection of assets, but Brandon Ingram‘s blood clot issues – even if they’re not believed to be career-threatening – have hurt his trade value. A healthy Ingram could potentially have headlined a package. Now, the Lakers may have to hope that the Pelicans are enamored with a player like Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, or Darius Garland (a potential No. 4 overall pick).

It’s not out of the question that Davis finds his way to the Lakers, but with the Celtics, Knicks, Clippers, Nets, and other teams potentially involved in the bidding as well, it’s hard to consider them the odds-on favorites. Especially since there’s no guarantee Griffin even pulls the trigger on a deal this summer.

3. How desperate will the Lakers get if they miss out on their primary targets?

It was fair to question the fit of the players the Lakers signed with their leftover cap room last summer – including Michael Beasley, JaVale McGee, and Lance Stephenson – but the team’s approach to free agency was theoretically the right one. All those players inked one-year contracts, ensuring that the club would once again have cap room to spend a year later.

If the Lakers are unable to land Davis or a top free agent at the start of this offseason, it might make sense in theory to take that same approach again this year, filling out their roster with one-year signings and avoiding any ill-advised long-term investments.

In reality though, the Lakers probably can’t afford not to go all-in for a second straight offseason after acquiring LeBron. He’ll turn 35 years old in December and there’s no telling how many All-NBA caliber seasons he has left in him. Given their star player’s timeline, the Lakers will probably have to be more aggressive than they’d like this summer to ensure they get James help in some form.

With more than $30MM in cap room available, the Lakers could invest heavily in a lower-level free agent or two. But the team is only three years removed from the summer of Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng. Even with a new management group in place, the Lakers will be wary of making a major commitment to any non-star on the free agent market after those disasters.

The club might be able to talk itself into a trade, however. Bradley Beal would be an ideal target, though it’s not clear if the Wizards will put him on the trade block. If the Lakers get more desperate, a veteran point guard like Kyle Lowry or LeBron’s good friend Chris Paul could be options. So could Los Angeles natives Kevin Love and DeMar DeRozan if they’re available.

All of those players have big salaries that the Lakers could use their cap room to absorb, so they could provide their trade partners with some level of cap relief in addition to young players and/or draft picks. Obviously, some of those trade scenarios are less likely than others, but the Lakers will need to do something big this summer, so it’s worth preparing for them to explore unexpected avenues if the expected ones aren’t fruitful.

4. Can the Lakers turn around the perception of their ownership and management?

Although Baxter Holmes’ ESPN report on the Lakers’ dysfunctional leadership focused extensively on Johnson, the story didn’t exactly make owner Jeanie Buss, general manager Rob Pelinka, or the rest of the franchise look good either.

Agents and executives around the league have griped about dealing with Pelinka, and many NBA observers believe he was hired by the Lakers more for his ties to the franchise (as Kobe Bryant‘s longtime agent) than for his qualifications. There are also concerns within the front office about the way he makes personnel decisions without consulting or informing executives who would typically be kept in the loop.

Even if those perceived shortcomings are legit, Pelinka is capable of learning from his mistakes, and draft picks like Kuzma and Josh Hart show that this front office can identify under-the-radar talent. Still, it’s probably wishful thinking to assume that some minor tweaks to the team’s decision-making process and a couple successful offseason acquisitions will turn things around entirely.

The Lakers’ culture may not see positive, lasting change until Buss stops leaning on her friends and longtime colleagues to run the show and hands the reins to an experienced executive from outside the organization.

5. Was Frank Vogel the right choice to coach the team?

We don’t know exactly what went on behind the scenes during the Lakers’ head coaching search, but the details that surfaced after Walton’s dismissal didn’t paint a picture of a strong, focused process.

Seven Lakers executives reportedly sat in on interviews with their top head coaching targets, which isn’t exactly conducive to reaching a unanimous consensus on each candidate. Perhaps it was indecision among that group of execs that led to top targets like Monty Williams and Tyronn Lue getting away — Williams accepted the Suns’ job, while negotiations with Lue ultimately fell through due to what he perceived to be a lowball offer.

The search eventually led the Lakers to Vogel, who agreed to a three-year contract and will have Jason Kidd on his staff. Kidd interviewed for the head coaching position and is now viewed as a possible in-house replacement for Vogel if things go sideways.

Vogel and the Lakers will say all the right things leading up to the 2019/20 season, but Vogel will find himself in a tough position. As we saw at February’s trade deadline when two-thirds of the Lakers were mentioned in Davis-related trade rumors, players are aware of what’s being reported in the media and the implications of those stories.

Those players will recognize that Vogel’s three-year deal – while other new head coaches this spring have gotten four or five years – and Kidd’s presence don’t suggest that the Lakers necessarily view Vogel as someone who will be coaching this team for the next 10 years. He’ll be under pressure to win over the team early and get out to a strong start in his first year in L.A.

Check out the Los Angeles Lakers’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Non-Bird Free Agents Who May Be Difficult To Re-Sign

June 3rd, 2019 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

Every player who finishes a season as a member of an NBA roster gets some form of Bird rights as a free agent, allowing his team to go over the cap to re-sign him. However, a player who spent just one year with his club typically only has Non-Bird rights, which are the weakest form of Bird rights, as their oxymoronic name suggests.

With the Non-Bird exception, a team can re-sign a player for up to four years and give him a raise, but that raise has to be a modest one. Non-Bird rights allow for a starting salary worth up to 120% of the player’s previous salary. In other words, a Non-Bird free agent who earned $5MM can only get a starting salary worth up to $6MM on his new deal unless his team uses cap room or another exception to bring him back.

This cap restriction will apply specifically to a handful of players around the NBA who appear to be in line for raises this summer. Because these players will be Non-Bird free agents, their teams’ ability to re-sign them will be limited.

Let’s take a closer look at five players who fit this bill for the 2019 offseason:

DeMarcus Cousins, Warriors (maximum Non-Bird salary: $6,404,400): Cousins’ future has been a popular topic of discussion since the day he signed his one-year contract with the Warriors, since it didn’t appear there was any way for the club to retain him unless he was willing to accept another discount deal. After suffering a torn quad in April, Cousins looked like a possible candidate for another one-year, prove-it contract, but if he continues to shine in the NBA Finals like he did in Game 2, he’ll be able to do better than that on the open market, reducing the likelihood of a return to Golden State.
Brook Lopez, Bucks (maximum Non-Bird salary: $4,058,400): As I outlined over the weekend, the Bucks can actually create up to about $10MM in cap room without renouncing free agents Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon or waiving non-guaranteed players like Sterling Brown and Pat Connaughton. If Milwaukee wants to retain Lopez, the team may need to go that route, since he’ll be seeking a much bigger salary than the $3.38MM he earned in 2018/19. Having proven he’s capable of stretching the floor on offense and protecting the rim on defense, he deserves it.
Austin Rivers, Rockets (maximum Non-Bird salary: 120% of the minimum): After being bought out by Phoenix, Rivers signed with the Rockets for the minimum. Now they won’t be able to offer him more than about $2.77MM without using cap room or the taxpayer mid-level exception. Given how well he played for Houston in the second half, Rivers should do better than that on the open market. Teammate Kenneth Faried may be in a similar boat, having joined the Rockets on a post-buyout minimum-salary deal of his own.
Seth Curry, Trail Blazers (maximum Non-Bird salary: $3,354,000): The Trail Blazers have three key Non-Bird free agents who will be tough to bring back. Besides Curry, Rodney Hood and Enes Kanter also fall into that group. Portland would probably like to retain all three players, and it’s hard to say which one would be missed most if he signs elsewhere. But my pick is Curry, whose .450 3PT% in the regular season (and .404 playoff 3PT%) was crucial for a team that didn’t have a ton of outside shooting.
Michael Carter-Williams, Magic (maximum Non-Bird salary: 120% of the minimum): Like Rivers, Carter-Williams was an in-season minimum-salary addition. The former Rookie of the Year rejuvenated his career with the Magic down the stretch, providing some stability behind D.J. Augustin at the point and helping fortify one of the NBA’s best second-half defenses. Carter-Williams won’t get as big a raise as most of the other players on this list, but Orlando will face competition for his services this summer and may lose him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Milwaukee Bucks

June 1st, 2019 at 1:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bucks were a popular sleeper contender pick entering the 2018/19 season, but few fans or experts anticipated they’d make the sort of jump they did. After having failed to get past the first round of the playoffs since 2001, Milwaukee led the NBA with 60 wins and built a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals before falling to Toronto. While falling short of the NBA Finals was a disappointment, the franchise took a huge step in the right direction this past year and is poised to build on that progress going forward.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Bucks financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($25,842,697)
Eric Bledsoe ($15,625,000)
Tony Snell ($11,492,857)
Ersan Ilyasova ($7,000,000)
D.J. Wilson ($2,961,120)
Donte DiVincenzo ($2,905,800)
Spencer Hawes ($2,007,058) — Waived via stretch provision
Larry Sanders ($1,865,546) — Waived via stretch provision
George Hill ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below. ¹
Bonzie Colson (two-way)
Total: $70,700,078

Player Options

Khris Middleton ($13,000,000)
Total: $13,000,000

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

George Hill ($17,000,000) ¹
Pat Connaughton ($1,723,050)
Sterling Brown ($1,618,520)
Total: $20,341,570

Restricted Free Agents

Malcolm Brogdon ($3,021,354 qualifying offer / $3,021,354 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $3,021,354

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Nikola Mirotic ($18,750,000): Bird rights
Brook Lopez ($4,058,400): Non-Bird rights
No. 30 overall pick ($1,934,040)
Tim Frazier ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Pau Gasol ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Total: $27,979,412

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

Cap room projection No. 1: $10.3MM
The Bucks’ cap situation is a fascinating one, given the various free agent cap holds and non-guaranteed contracts in play. This scenario is one I view as pretty plausible. It assumes the Bucks waive-and-stretch Hill, keep the rest of their players on guaranteed contracts, retain Connaughton, Brown, and their first-round pick, and keep the cap holds for Brogdon and Middleton ($19.5MM) on their books, renouncing the rest. That would leave $10.3MM in cap room for Lopez and/or other FA targets, plus the room exception. After using that room, the club could then go over the cap – and potentially even into the tax – to re-sign Middleton and Brogdon using Bird rights.
Cap room projection No. 2: $0
This scenario assumes the Bucks keep all their cap holds – including Lopez’s and Mirotic’s – on their books and remain an over-the-cap team. It’s another one of the most realistic outcomes, since Milwaukee would still be able to use some form of the mid-level exception. But it only really makes sense if the Bucks can re-sign Mirotic with his Bird rights or Lopez with his Non-Bird rights.
Cap room projection No. 3: $28.9MM
This projection assumes the same series of events as scenario No. 1, but assumes Middleton signs elsewhere and his cap hold comes off the team’s books. I don’t think that’s too likely, but the Bucks could get pretty close to a maximum-salary slot even without renouncing Brogdon.
It’s worth noting that the Bucks’ cap projection could look different than any of these scenarios if the team makes a trade or two, potentially dumping Snell’s contract to create more flexibility.

Cap Exceptions Available

Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 ²

Footnotes

Hill’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.
This is a projected value. In the event the Bucks use cap room, they’d lose this exception and would instead would gain access to the $4,760,000 room exception. If the Bucks are at risk of going into tax territory, they may have to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,711,000) rather than the full mid-level exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders, ESPN.com, and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 5/25/19 – 6/1/19

June 1st, 2019 at 12:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our segments and features from the past seven days:

Having spoken to a handful of current and former NBA executives and talent evaluators, Chris Crouse ranked the top 25 potential trade assets for Anthony Davis held by the Celtics, Knicks, Lakers, and Clippers.
Chris also identified three possible trade partners for the Cavaliers as they shop J.R. Smith‘s cap-friendly contract this summer.
A total of 20 players with three years of NBA experience will be eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason. We provided the full list.
Our Five Key Offseason Questions series focused on the following teams this week:
We revisited the predictions for the 2018/19 season that we made back in October, identifying the good, the bad, and the ugly from our forecast.
Our 2018/19 Salary Cap Digest series moved on to the Trail Blazers.
In his latest mailbag, Arthur Hill answered questions on the likelihood of a Kyrie Irving sign-and-trade, a potential draft target for the Sixers, and more.
Our Community Shootaround discussion posts addressed the following topics:
- Will Kawhi Leonard stick with the Raptors or sign elsewhere? (link)
- Should the Bucks do all they can to re-sign Khris Middleton? (link)
- Can the Lakers bounce back from a disastrous few months and have a successful offseason? (link)
Our lone poll question this week was an obvious one: Which team will win the NBA Finals?

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: Lakers Offseason

May 31st, 2019 at 7:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Lakers’ franchise has been in a downward spiral since Christmas Day, when LeBron James suffered a groin injury during an upset victory at Golden State that sidelined him for more than a month.

From that point, the most notable developments the remainder of the season were their failed attempt to acquire Anthony Davis, their inability to make the playoffs, and the abrupt resignation of team president Magic Johnson.

It’s only gotten worse in the offseason. The Lakers fired head coach Luke Walton and their search for a replacement gave the franchise another black eye. Then got spurned by Monty Williams and saw negotiations with Tyronn Lue fall apart before settling on Frank Vogel. They also hired Jason Kidd as Vogel’s top assistant, putting Vogel in the awkward spot of having his potential replacement in the next chair.

Then came Johnson’s bridge-burning interview on ESPN in which he labelled GM Rob Pelinka a backstabber and detailed the dysfunction and indecision within the organization. This week, a detailed ESPN story spoke of the fear and confusion among staffers that developed when Johnson and Pelinka took charge and the heavy turnover in personnel.

It also detailed owner Jeanie Buss’ odd and ineffective management structure and the undue influence of James’ agent Rich Paul and others in James’ camp.

The only good thing that’s happened for the Lakers is that they moved up in the draft lottery.

Meanwhile, the franchise heads into a pivotal summer. It’s positioned financially to chase high-profile free agents and/or make a blockbuster trade.

Unquestionably, the Lakers need to acquire at least one superstar talent to pair up with James or else this offseason will be viewed as a complete disaster.

That leads us to our question of the day: Can the Lakers overcome the dysfunction and disarray within the organization and sign or trade for at least one superstar this offseason? Or are they doomed for a disastrous summer?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Washington Wizards

May 31st, 2019 at 1:25pm CST by Luke Adams

It has been a precipitous drop-off over the last two years for the Wizards, who racked up 49 wins and pushed the Celtics to a seventh game in the Eastern Conference Semifinals during the 2016/17 season.

A year later, they backed into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed before being eliminated in the first round. This season, they cratered out of the postseason picture entirely, finishing the season with a 32-50 record and an unclear picture of when their injured – and increasingly expensive – franchise point guard will be able to return to the court.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Who is running the front office?

As our front office shakeup tracker shows, the Wizards are the only team that has ousted its previous top executive this spring and hasn’t yet identified a replacement.

After targeting Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly, Washington was unable to convince him to leave Denver. The team has also conducted multiple interviews with former Cavs and Hawks GM Danny Ferry, Thunder executive Troy Weaver, and interim GM Tommy Sheppard, but has yet to commit to any of those candidates.

Sheppard is running the show for now, and with every passing day, it looks increasingly likely that he’ll be the one making the calls for the Wizards this summer. After all, the draft is less than three weeks away, and the free agent period will begin in a month. There’s not a lot of time left for someone new to come in and make sweeping changes to the organization’s philosophy and offseason big boards.

It’s possible that the Wizards are still waiting on an executive whose team is active in the playoffs — perhaps Larry Harris of the Warriors or even Masai Ujiri of the Raptors. But if not, it would be in owner Ted Leonsis‘ best interests to resolve the situation sooner rather than later. This will be a big offseason for the Wizards, and leaving the front office in limbo with the draft rights around the corner isn’t the best way to kick it off.

2. What can or should the Wizards do with John Wall?

The biggest issue facing the Wizards’ new head of basketball operations is what do with Wall. The point guard’s super-max extension, which will pay him a projected $38.15MM in 2019/20 and $170.91MM over four years, goes into effect in July, but he won’t be ready to play by opening night.

Wall is still recovering from a torn Achilles, which is a scary proposition for a player whose best traits are his speed and explosiveness. Even if Wall makes a full recovery, he’ll be 29 years old by the time he gets back on the court and 32 by the final year of his contract. It’s not hard to see why the deal is viewed by NBA observers as one of the least team-friendly pacts in the league.

For now though, there’s not really a lot the Wizards can do about Wall’s contract. With four years left on it, waiving and stretching it isn’t a realistic option. A trade doesn’t make sense either, since Washington would have to attach way too many other assets to make it worthwhile. All the team can really do is wait it out and hope that Wall comes back strong and the contract starts looking a little more manageable in a year or two.

With Wall’s salary taking up 35% of the cap and reducing the Wizards’ flexibility, it will be extremely difficult to build a legit contender in the short term. As such, the best move for the organization probably involves taking a step back this offseason, focusing on ways to compile assets and compete down the road, rather than shoving all its chips in for 2019/20.

3. How about Bradley Beal?

If the Wizards do take a step back next season and don’t plan to push to contend in the short term, the question of what to do with Beal becomes a fascinating one too. In Wall’s absence, he emerged as Washington’s best player, averaging an impressive 27.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, and 5.1 RPG on .476/.359/.822 shooting in his 47 games after Wall’s injury.

Would it make sense for the Wizards to take advantage of his increased value by trading Beal now? He’d almost certainly net some strong pieces for a rebuild, and Wall’s cap hit wouldn’t limit the team’s flexibility as much if it’s the only maximum salary on the books for the next couple years. It’s even possible – albeit unlikely – that the Wizards could unload Wall’s contract altogether in a Beal trade.

The decision on Beal will likely come down to the new GM’s vision, but I’d be surprised if the Wizards seriously look to move him this offseason. He remains under contract for the next two seasons, and after falling short of a spot on an All-NBA team this year, he’s not eligible for a super-max extension, meaning the club could potentially extend him at a fair rate if he’s interested.

Most importantly, Beal is still only 25 years old and has proven he’s the kind of impact player and scorer that is very hard for NBA teams to find. If the Wizards were to trade him for a package of several pieces and then bottomed out next season, there’s no guarantee that any of the players they acquire in that package – or in next year’s draft lottery – would ever develop into the sort of star Beal already is.

4. How should the Wizards use the No. 9 overall pick?

The results of the 2019 draft lottery illustrate why it’s risky for the Wizards to count on the lottery to put them in position to land a difference maker. Washington entered the night ranked sixth in the lottery standings, but saw the seventh-place and eighth-place teams (New Orleans and Memphis) leapfrog them for the top two spots in the draft. The Lakers also moved up, pushing the Wizards all the way down to No. 9.

Although the outcome was disappointing and could’ve looked drastically different if one ping pong ball had been drawn differently, the Wizards can still get a good player at No. 9 — even in a year when there aren’t a ton of sure things in the lottery.

Texas center Jaxson Hayes could be an intriguing target, since the only centers currently under contract in D.C. are Ian Mahinmi and Dwight Howard, overpriced veterans who aren’t part of the club’s long-term plan.

If a forward like Cam Reddish slips to No. 9, he’d be a nice upside play for the Wizards. French forward Sekou Doumbouya, who has been compared to Pascal Siakam, would fit that bill too. UNC’s Nassir Little is a polarizing prospect, but his length and athleticism are tantalizing.

Whoever the Wizards end up with, the fact that they even have this pick available is a positive sign. In many recent seasons, the club has traded away its first-round pick for short-term help. Those moves haven’t always turned out badly, but the franchise’s cap issues can be attributed in part to not having enough players on affordable rookie contracts.

Without those deals, it became harder for the cap-strapped Wizards to keep the players they traded for, which turned potential building blocks like Bojan Bogdanovic into three-month rentals. Starting to add more players on rookie contracts is a step in the right direction for a club that will have to work around some expensive investments.

5. Which of the Wizards’ top free agents will the team try to keep?

Despite having nearly $90MM committed to their 2019/20 cap, the Wizards have a ton of empty roster spots and a handful of key contributors who will be hitting the free agent market this summer. Tomas Satoransky, Thomas Bryant, and Bobby Portis will be restricted free agents, while Trevor Ariza will be unrestricted.

Under Ernie Grunfeld, the Wizards expressed serious interest in locking up Satoransky, even exploring an in-season extension with him. It’s not clear that the new head of basketball operations will have that same level of interest, but with Wall expected to miss most of the 2019/19 season, re-signing Satoransky would add some much-needed stability at the point guard spot. The Wizards will control the process since Satoransky will be an RFA, so I’d expect the team to make a strong effort to bring him back as long as he doesn’t sign an outrageous offer sheet.

The Wizards’ decision on Portis will be interesting. With Jabari Parker unlikely to return to the Wizards, Portis would be the only player left from the trade that sent Otto Porter to Chicago. If Washington doesn’t push to bring back Portis, it would be a tacit acknowledgment that the Porter deal was just a salary dump.

Depending on the price, it might make more sense to prioritize Bryant, who had a breakthrough season at age 21, averaging 10.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 0.9 BPG while leading the league in 2PT% (.685). While Portis is a more dangerous offensive threat, Bryant is a stronger defender and doesn’t need the ball much, which should make him a better fit with Beal and – eventually – Wall.

As for Ariza, the Wizards acquired him with the intent of keeping him beyond 2018/19, but he’ll have plenty of other options and I don’t expect him to give Washington any sort of discount. Ariza is more of a win-now player, so while the Wizards may like to retain him if they can, they should certainly avoid any sort of bidding war for him.

Check out the Washington Wizards’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Three Potential Landing Spots For J.R. Smith (And His Valuable Contract)

May 30th, 2019 at 11:24pm CST by ChrisCrouse

One year removed from starting Game 1 of the NBA Finals, J.R. Smith sits on the sidelines, a place he has been since November of 2018. The Cavaliers explored trading him during the season, though they were unable to come to an agreement with another club before the trade deadline. A buyout seemed possible, but Smith’s contract, which was signed in 2016, remained a carrot that the team simply could not throw to the streets.

Smith’s 2019/20 salary of $15.68MM is only guaranteed for $3.87MM, Another team that lacks cap flexibility could potentially use his contract to quickly carve out upwards of $18MM in extra cap space, as our own Luke Adams detailed earlier in the season. To maximize those savings, a team would have to use the stretch provision on Smith, a move that would bring his cap hit to approximately $1.29MM.

The latest Collective Bargaining Agreement changed the calculus for salary matching in trades involving non-guarantees. The new rules took away the ability to swap guaranteed salary for non-guaranteed contracts as a means of creating salary cap space.

Had Smith signed under the new agreement, his contract would only count for $3.87MM (the guaranteed portion) for salary-matching purposes instead of his full salary ($14.72 for the 2018/19 season). While other players are currently under high salary deals with low or no guarantees, Smith’s is the only deal remaining from the former Collective Bargaining Agreement that fits that bill.

The Cavaliers have a trade chip that no other team possesses, though the clock is ticking on the asset; Smith’s entire salary for next season will be fully guaranteed if he’s on the roster come July 1. Let’s examine some teams that make sense as suitors.

Trail Blazers

The Blazers are projected to be a taxpaying team, with roughly $126MM in guaranteed salary on the books. The luxury tax threshold is expected to come in at $132MM and the team will have trouble bringing back Enes Kanter and Rodney Hood—two key members of their playoff run—without skyrocketing over the tax line.

Acquiring Smith would allow Portland to reshuffle its financial portfolio. Evan Turner ($18.6MM next season) is the team’s third-high paid player. Maurice Harkless ($11.5MM), and Meyers Leonard ($11.3MM) are fifth and sixth, respectively. If the Blazers feel Kanter or Hood are higher priorities than any of the three, they can swap one of those deals for Smith’s and give themselves a chance to compete for their guys on the free agent market without the internal dilemma of luxury tax concerns.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are expected to be active this offseason, searching the free agent market for additions to the Kristaps Porzingis–Luka Doncic core. They’ve been connected to Tobias Harris, Khris Middleton, and Kemba Walker.

Dallas would probably love to get out from Tim Hardaway Jr.‘s contract (approximately $20MM next season), but the fact that his contract still has multiple years left on it, running through the 2020/21 campaign, makes him a hard sell.

Shedding Courtney Lee ($12.7MM) may be easier and would give Dallas more flexibility this offseason. Dallas could attempt to entice Cleveland with a prospect like Justin Jackson or offer up the No. 37 overall pick in this year’s draft in order to acquire Smith. It’s not clear if anything short of a first-round pick will be enough to pry Smith away from the Cavs.

Brooklyn Nets

Whispers that the Nets are contenders to sign two max free agents can’t get too loud until the team clears out enough cap space to accommodate two stars. As our Salary Cap Digest indicates, Brooklyn doesn’t even have the ability to sign one max free agent without renouncing D’Angelo Russell or making additional transactions.

Moving Allen Crabbe, who has one year and $18.5MM left on his deal, would aid their quest for a star summer. The team has three selections among the first 31 picks in the upcoming draft (No. 17, 27, 31) and attaching one of those picks to Crabbe in exchange for Smith would create a clear path to additional cap space.

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