Hoops Rumors Originals

Community Shootaround: NBA Draft Winners, Losers

June 21st, 2019 at 8:26am CST by Luke Adams

The concept of “winners” and “losers” in an NBA draft isn’t necessarily a flawed one, but naming those winners and losers within 24 hours of the draft’s completion is probably misguided. Three years ago, for example, how many fans or even draft experts would have called the Raptors a winner of the 2016 NBA draft for nabbing little-known forward Pascal Siakam with the 27th overall pick?

Still, the “winner” and “loser” tags are simple short-hand for assessing which teams’ drafts we like, at first glance, and which ones we don’t. With that in mind, we want to hear your thoughts on which teams you believe have a good night on Thursday and which ones you believe could have done better.

The Cavaliers are among the teams that received plenty of praise for their work on Thursday — they came out of the first round with three promising young rookies, having selected Darius Garland at No. 5, Dylan Windler at No. 26, and Kevin Porter Jr. at No. 30. Garland was long viewed as the probable fourth overall pick, and Porter was considered a candidate for the end of the lottery, so Cleveland got seemingly great value in the first round.

[RELATED: 2019 NBA Draft Results]

The Pelicans are among the other teams whose work was lauded, though it’s hard not to get high marks when you come away with Zion Williamson. Besides the No. 1 overall pick, New Orleans also came away with Jaxson Hayes at No. 8, Nickeil Alexander-Walker at No. 17, and Marcos Louzada Silva at No. 35. They also managed to shed Solomon Hill‘s contract in their trade with the Hawks.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Suns‘ moves generated some confusion. They had to give up the No. 32 pick to move T.J. Warren, whose three-year, $35MM contract didn’t look like an albatross. Then they traded down from No. 6 to acquire Dario Saric and used their newly-acquired No. 11 pick to select Cameron Johnson, a player most experts didn’t expect to go in the top 20.

What do you think? Which teams’ drafts did you like most, and which ones were you a little less bullish on? Head to the comment section below to weigh in!

Hoops Rumors’ 2019 NBA Draft Live Chat

June 20th, 2019 at 7:54pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The 2019 NBA Draft is here! In addition to our standard coverage of the NBA, we’ll be hosting a live chat to discuss all the player movement and selections from around the league.

Believe a team is drafting a prospect too high? Concerned that your favorite player has been overlooked? Feeling good about a trade (looking at you Pelicans fans) or upset with your team for making a move?

We’ve got you covered on everything going on around the NBA! We’re starting at 6:30 pm CT through the first round!

Join Hoops Rumors’ live 2019 NBA Draft chat

Five Key Offseason Questions: Denver Nuggets

June 20th, 2019 at 3:37pm CST by Luke Adams

After missing the postseason by a single game in 2018, the Nuggets left no doubt about their spot in the playoffs in 2019, winning 54 games and claiming the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

Although Denver ultimately fell to Portland in the Western Semifinals, it was a hugely successful year for the organization, which won its first playoff series since 2009 as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray established themselves as one of the NBA’s most promising young duos.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What will the Nuggets do with Paul Millsap?

Eleven players from last season’s Nuggets roster remain under contract for 2019/20, include nine of the team’s top 10 players in terms of minutes per game. The only player in that top 10 whose situation remains murky is Millsap.

After being limited to 38 games in his first season in Denver due to a wrist injury, Millsap served as the team’s starting power forward in 2018/19, averaging 27.1 minutes per contest in 70 games. While Millsap’s numbers (12.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG) were relatively modest, he helped solidify the Nuggets’ defense and provided crucial veteran leadership on a young team.

I don’t have any doubt that the Nuggets would like to bring Millsap back. The only problem? The final year of his contract features a $30.35MM team option. That’s a steep price to pay for a 34-year-old who is no longer in the prime years of his career.

The Nuggets could probably afford to pick up Millsap’s option and maybe even still use the full mid-level exception in free agency, though they’d be right up against the tax line in that scenario.

Declining Millsap’s option and bringing him back at a lower salary would be an option, but once Denver turns down that option, he’ll be free to test the open market — there’s no guarantee he’d want to negotiate a more modest deal with the Nuggets after they’ve denied him what could be his final major payday.

While many big-money team and player option decisions are obvious, Millsap’s is one of the few that could legitimately go either way.

2. What free agent options would the Nuggets have if they turn down (or pick up) Millsap’s option?

Without Millsap’s salary on their books, the Nuggets could open up about $17MM in cap room. That’s a sizable chunk, but it’s not nearly enough to pursue a star free agent.

A player like Tobias Harris, for instance, could be an intriguing fit in Denver, but there’s no chance the team will have a realistic shot at him with an offer that starts at $17MM — he’s likely to sign for nearly double that amount.

That doesn’t mean that the Nuggets wouldn’t have options with $17MM in cap room, but their potential targets would be a little less exciting than someone like Harris. If the team pursued a power forward, veterans such as Thaddeus Young, Marcus Morris, Bobby Portis, and Trevor Ariza would be more realistic options.

It may ultimately make more sense for the Nuggets to either pick up Millsap’s option or agree to bring him back on a new deal, clearing the way for the team to stay over the cap and keep its $9.25MM mid-level exception and $3.62MM bi-annual exception. Using both exceptions in full would probably put Denver over the tax line, barring cost-cutting moves, but the club should be able to use most or all of its MLE on a solid contributor and still sneak below the tax.

Free agents like Morris and Ariza might still be targets with that exception, though I expect them to receive more substantial offers. With Millsap back in the mix, Denver wouldn’t necessarily have to target a power forward, opening up more possible avenues for the mid-level. As a point of comparison, Kyle Anderson and Julius Randle were the two free agents last year who signed for the full MLE, so the Nuggets could reasonably expect to acquire a reliable rotation player using that money.

3. What can the Nuggets expect out of Michael Porter Jr.?

The final pick of the 2018 NBA draft lottery, Porter is the only first-rounder from last year’s draft that has yet to make his professional debut.

While a back injury sidelined Porter for his rookie season, he has been medically cleared and is expected to participate in Summer League with the Nuggets, right around the time the club is finalizing many of the trades and/or free agent signings it will make this summer.

Having an idea of what to expect from Porter would give the Nuggets a clearer picture of how they should look to upgrade their roster. If they think MPJ is capable of staying healthy and stepping into the rotation in 2019/20, it might dissuade the team from looking to add another forward this summer.

Or, if the Nuggets feel that their rotation is getting crowded and want to try to consolidate some of their pieces, having a healthy Porter available to dangle in trade talks as part of a larger package could pave the way for Denver to acquire another impact player.

Before the franchise makes a decision on Porter’s future though, it has to see what it has in him — and it has to confirm that his health is back to 100%.

4. Is this the end of the road for Trey Lyles in Denver?

After emerging as a solid backup stretch four in 2017/18, Lyles regressed last season. His shooting percentage dipped from 49.1% to 41.8% (including 38.1% to 25.5% on three-pointers), and he wasn’t counted on to play as significant a role as he had the year before. In the playoffs, he fell out of the rotation entirely.

The Nuggets paid a significant price to acquire Lyles in 2017, surrendering the draft pick that became Donovan Mitchell, and a bounce-back performance is a possibility. But he’ll be a restricted free agent this season and it’s not clear if he’s in the club’s future plans, particularly if Millsap returns and Porter and Juan Hernangomez will have regular rotation roles.

The Nuggets can retain the right of first refusal on Lyles by tendering him a qualifying offer worth approximately $4.5MM. But if the team puts that one-year offer on the table, it will have to be comfortable with the possibility of Lyles accepting it, since I’m skeptical any team will be ready to swoop in with a big offer sheet.

Assuming the Nuggets plan on bringing back Millsap at his option now, there’s a chance they’ll simply pass on Lyles’ qualifying offer, preferring to use their remaining spending power below the tax threshold elsewhere.

5. Will the Nuggets extend Jamal Murray?

Murray, the Nuggets’ top perimeter player, will be extension-eligible for the first time this offseason. There should be mutual interest in a new, long-term deal, but Denver will have to seriously weigh whether it makes more sense to get something done with Murray right away or wait until he reaches restricted free agency in 2020.

The Nuggets’ decision may come down to what their plans are for the summer of 2020. Currently, the team only has upwards of about $67MM in team salary committed to its 2020/21 books. A lucrative new extension for Murray would take that number over $90MM and would reduce the likelihood of Denver using cap room next summer.

On the other hand, keeping Murray’s $13MM cap hold on the books would create a path to a chunk of cap space for the club. The Nuggets could use that cap space in free agency in 2020, then use Murray’s Bird rights to go over the cap to sign him to his new contract at that point.

If the Nuggets expect to have to go up to the max for Murray, waiting makes sense — in that scenario, the salary on his next contract would be the same whether they get a deal sooner or later. But if the young guard is willing to sign for a slightly more team-friendly rate in extension negotiations this offseason, Denver should probably take advantage of that opportunity. If he takes another step forward in 2019/20, Murray’s price will only go up.

Hernangomez and Malik Beasley will also be eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason, though I’d be a little surprised if either player inks one.

Check out the Denver Nuggets’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Toronto Raptors

June 20th, 2019 at 2:19pm CST by Luke Adams

After years of postseason disappointment, everything went right for the Raptors in 2018/19. Kawhi Leonard stayed healthy and proved he still belongs in the conversation about the best player in the NBA. Pascal Siakam emerged as the league’s Most Improved Player. Marc Gasol arrived in a deadline deal to help tighten up the club’s defense and improve its ball movement on offense. And after impressive series wins over Philadelphia and Milwaukee, Toronto knocked off the two-time defending champion Warriors to win the first title in team history.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Raptors financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Kyle Lowry ($34,996,296)
Serge Ibaka ($23,271,604)
Norman Powell ($10,116,576)
Fred VanVleet ($9,346,153)
Pascal Siakam ($2,351,839)
OG Anunoby ($2,281,800)
Justin Hamilton ($1,000,000) — Waived via stretch provision.
Chris Boucher ($125,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below. ¹
Jordan Loyd (two-way)
Total: $83,489,268

Player Options

Marc Gasol ($25,595,700)
Kawhi Leonard ($21,329,752)
Total: $46,925,452

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Malcolm Miller ($1,588,231) ²
Chris Boucher ($1,463,231) ¹
Total: $3,051,462

Restricted Free Agents

Nando De Colo ($1,828,750 qualifying offer / $1,901,900 cap hold): Early Bird rights ³
Patrick McCaw ($1,876,700 qualifying offer / $1,876,700 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Total: $3,778,600

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Danny Green ($15,000,000): Bird rights
Lucas Nogueira ($8,841,915): Bird rights ³
Jeremy Lin ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Jodie Meeks ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Eric Moreland ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Jason Thompson ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights ³
Total: $30,315,859

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

Realistic cap room projection: $0
If Gasol opts in or Leonard re-signs with the Raptors, the team will be over the cap. If both happen, another year in luxury tax territory is probably on tap for the franchise. Should both players depart, the Raps could technically create up to about $20MM in cap room, but it would mean waiving Miller and Boucher and renouncing all their other free agents too.

Cap Exceptions Available

Trade exception: $2,947,320 (expires 7/18/19)
Trade exception: $1,569,360 (expires 2/6/20)
Trade exception: $1,512,601 (expires 2/7/20)
Trade exception: $2,536,898 (expires 2/7/20)
Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 ⁴
Bi-annual exception: $3,619,000 ⁴

Footnotes

Boucher’s salary becomes fully guaranteed on the first day of the season.
Miller’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 24.
The cap holds for De Colo, Nogueira, and Thompson remain on the Raptors’ books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in previous years. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
These are projected values. If the Raptors are at risk of going into tax territory, they may forfeit the bi-annual exception and have to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,711,000) rather than the full mid-level exception. In the event they use cap room, they’d lose these exceptions, plus their trade exceptions, and would instead would gain access to the $4,760,000 room exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders, ESPN, and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors’ 2019 NBA Mock Draft

June 20th, 2019 at 9:47am CST by Hoops Rumors

With the 2019 NBA draft just mere hours away, we’re finally set to reveal Hoops Rumors’ own mock draft. Arthur Hill and Chris Crouse of Hoops Rumors have tackled the 2019 first round, alternating picks and providing their thoughts and rationale for each selection.

Our mock draft isn’t necessarily a reflection of what we think will happen on Thursday night, but rather what Arthur and Chris feel each team should do with the 30 first-round picks. Our draft also doesn’t include trades, so a busy day on the trade market could significantly alter our projected order.

After checking out our picks, be sure to head to the comments section to weigh in with your own thoughts, opinions, and predictions.

Let’s dive in…

1. New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson, F (Duke)

Arthur Hill: It didn’t take long for the Duke freshman to prove he was the best player in college basketball. Unlike most No. 1 overall picks, Williamson comes into a solid situation with New Orleans’ upgraded roster, so he won’t need to be dominant right away. His talents will be fully unleashed in the NBA and he will be a strong favorite for Rookie of the Year.

2. Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant, G (Murray State)

Chris Crouse: Memphis traded away Mike Conley in order to make room for their new point guard of the future. Morant will likely be the selection here and he has big shoes to fill from day one.

3. New York Knicks: R.J. Barrett, F (Duke)

AH: It’s been a disappointing offseason already for the Knicks, who lost out on Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, a healthy Kevin Durant, and probably Kyrie Irving too. They need to resist any temptation to gamble with the No. 3 pick and simply make the safe choice in Barrett. He’s a high-volume scorer who proved in college that he can be a play-maker as well. He will be a nice piece for what now looks like it could be a long rebuilding process.

4. New Orleans Pelicans: Darius Garland, G (Vanderbilt)

CC: Regardless of whether or not the Pelicans keep this selection, Garland should be the pick. He’s the fourth-best player in this draft and would arguably be in contention for a top-three selection had he played the entire season. There’s risk with this pick, but the upside is too great to allow him to fall in the draft.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jarrett Culver, G (Texas Tech)

AH: At 6’7″ and a strong defender, Culver is an ideal complement to Collin Sexton in the Cavaliers’ backcourt. Culver was a versatile player in college, running the Texas Tech offense as well as being the team’s leading scorer. He also has a high basketball IQ and should be able to adjust to whatever role he asked to play.

6. Phoenix Suns, De’Andre Hunter, F (Virginia)

CC: The Suns may move on from Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren this offseason, which would leave their forward situation in flux. Hunter could come and add to a promising nucleus that includes Mikal Bridges, Devin Booker, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton.

7. Chicago Bulls: Coby White, G (UNC)

AH: The draft breaks ideally for Chicago, which lands its point guard of the future without having to trade up. Despite being 6’5″, White has an explosive first step that enables him to beat defenders off the dribble. The Bulls get a potential star at point guard for the first time since Derrick Rose started breaking down.

8. Atlanta Hawks: Cam Reddish, F (Duke)

CC: Atlanta is likely Reddish’s floor in this draft. While he struggled to live up to his potential at Duke, the talent is clearly there and the fluid wing would be a nice fit next to the Hawks’ young backcourt of Trae Young and Kevin Huerter. It wouldn’t shock me if Reddish ends up being a top-three player from this draft.

9. Washington Wizards: Nassir Little, F (UNC)

AH: This draft doesn’t have the depth of past years, so teams will start gambling in the middle of the lottery. Little seems worth taking a chance on, offering elite athleticism with a 7’1″ wingspan. Washington is low on forwards and Little could become a good long-term answer.

10. Atlanta Hawks: Kevin Porter Jr., G (USC)

CC: Rumblings that Porter would be taken higher than expected have surfaced and with his skill set, it’s easy to understand why. His offensive game is among the best in the class; his physical tools give him a chance to be a problem for opposing play-makers on a nightly basis in the NBA.

Can he put it all together? That’s the risk with Porter. Injuries and a suspension limited his collegiate career to just 21 games and there are concerns about how he’s going to play in the NBA when he doesn’t have the ball. The Hawks are in a position to take the high-risk, high-reward prospect, adding his talent to an up-and-coming team.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves: Sekou Doumbouya, F (Guinea)

AH: Scouts rave about his physical abilities, especially on defense, but Doumbouya, who didn’t start playing until age 12, will take some time to develop into an NBA player. The Timberwolves are in position to be patient, with a talented front line already in place and a more relaxed timetable to become contenders than they had a year ago.

12. Charlotte Hornets: Jaxson Hayes, C (Texas)

CC: Charlotte needs to infuse young talent into all areas of the team and while Hayes is a project, he’s the top center prospect in the draft. His length and agility give him the tools that evaluators look for in a five. The Hornets may be rebuilding next season if Kemba Walker leaves in free agency, so the team can afford to take a prospect who will need some time to expand his game.

13. Miami Heat: Tyler Herro, G (Kentucky)

AH: The Heat need shooters after trading Wayne Ellington during the season and making Dion Waiters available this summer. That’s the specialty for this Kentucky freshman, who has been impressive enough during workouts to be considered as a lottery pick.

14. Boston Celtics: PJ Washington, F (Kentucky)

CC: The Celtics are likely to move at least one of their first-round picks, so another team could easily be picking in this spot. Should Boston stay put here, Washington gets the nod due to his long-term upside and projected ability to guard multiple positions in the NBA.

15. Detroit Pistons: Romeo Langford, G/F (Indiana)

AH: Langford was hampered during his freshman season at Indiana by a torn ligament in his shooting hand, but he was highly regarded coming out of high school and has the potential to expand his offensive game in the NBA. Scouts see him as an effective three-and-D player with the size and athleticism to develop into something more.

16. Orlando Magic: Rui Hachimura, F (Gonzaga)

CC: The Magic’s biggest long-term need is in the backcourt and while Nickeil Alexander-Walker was a consideration here, Hachimura’s game is too good for the team to pass up. Selecting the Gonzaga combo forward adds to an area of strength. And if the Magic decide to deal Aaron Gordon, the Hachimura/Jonathan Isaac duo is a great long-term pairing.

17. Atlanta Hawks: Goga Bitadze, C (Georgia)

AH: Atlanta probably won’t keep all three first-rounders, but if it does, Bitadze would be a wise investment for a team that could use a center. Still only 19, Bitadze displayed a promising offensive game in the EuroLeague, including the ability to stretch the court.

18. Indiana Pacers: Brandon Clarke, F (Gonzaga)

CC: Clarke is one of the most polished prospect in the draft and he should be able to join the rotation in Indiana right away. I’d be surprised to see him fall this far, but if he does, the Pacers should rush to the podium.

19. San Antonio Spurs: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG (Virginia Tech)

AH: San Antonio adds to its collection of young backcourt talent with a sharpshooter from Virginia Tech. Alexander-Walker is versatile enough to handle either guard position, and his basketball IQ will help him fit in on a team coached by Gregg Popovich.

20. Boston Celtics: Bol Bol, C (Oregon)

CC: The 7’2″ center appeared to be a definitive lottery selection before breaking his foot in college. He could still go that high, but the risk will make teams think twice. The Celtics, one of several teams with multiple first-round picks, can afford to gamble that he’ll return to form.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Keldon Johnson, F (Kentucky)

AH: Oklahoma City wouldn’t mind trading the pick, but the freshman swingman out of Kentucky would be a good addition if they keep it. Johnson provides another three-point threat to a team that needs help in that area. He can also get to the rim and shows promise as an NBA defender.

22. Boston Celtics: KZ Okpala, F (Stanford)

CC: The Stanford product may not be able to contribute right away, as he’ll need to put in work on both sides of the ball. However, the physical tools are there. With a nearly 7’2″ wingspan and an improved three-point shot, Okpala can one day become the ideal 3-and-D player who guards multiple positions.

23. Memphis Grizzlies: Ty Jerome, G (Virginia)

AH: With Ja Morant ready to take over at point guard, Jerome could be an effective backup. He’s a tough competitor and displayed incredible efficiency while leading Virginia to a national title. He’s also a knock-down shooter who would give the Grizzlies another 3-point weapon.

24. Philadelphia 76ers: Cameron Johnson, F (UNC)

CC: Philadelphia wants a contributor with the No. 24 overall pick and the franchise will be thrilled in the North Carolina product is still on the board when it picks. Johnson should be able to join the rotation on day one, given his smooth jump shot and understanding of the game.

25. Portland Trail Blazers: Mfiondu Kabengele, C (Florida State)

AH: Center is suddenly a position of need in Portland with Enes Kanter a free agent and Jusuf Nurkic expected to miss at least half the season with a broken leg. Kabengele has a 7’3″ wingspan and is a relentless rebounder and shot blocker.

26. Cleveland Cavaliers: Darius Bazley, F (Princeton HS (OH))

CC: If the Cavs keep this pick, I’d expect them to be in the mix for Bazley. There isn’t much data available on him, as he sat out the season for a $1MM internship, but his fluidity at 6’9″ makes him a worthy of a shot here.

27. Brooklyn Nets: Nicolas Claxton, C (Georgia)

AH: Claxton still needs to develop physically to compete with NBA big men, but he showed an impressive array of skills in his sophomore season at Georgia. He can handle the ball on the perimeter, is versatile on defense, and has developed some low-post moves.

28. Golden State Warriors: Eric Paschall, F (Villanova)

CC: Golden State is going to come back next season with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and plenty of needs around them. Paschall comes out of the box ready to shoot and his tough defensive game makes for an intriguing fit next to Green or Kevon Looney, assuming the free-agent-to-be returns.

29. San Antonio Spurs: Luka Samanic, F (Croatia)

AH: With San Antonio owning two first-round picks, the Croatian combo forward is a potential draft-and-stash, even though he prefers to come to the NBA right away. Only 19 years old, Samanic has shown a varied offensive game already, but may benefit from more time overseas.

30. Detroit Pistons: Bruno Fernando, C (Maryland)

CC: Although center is not the Pistons’ biggest need, Fernando should be able to come in and take control of the backup spot in Detroit right away. He showcased shooting touch during workouts, but he didn’t quite do the same in live game action at Maryland. Still, Detroit could do worse in this spot than a player who could eventually replace Andre Drummond.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Golden State Warriors

June 19th, 2019 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The Warriors earned a spot in the NBA Finals for a fifth straight year in 2019, but health issues slowed them down against the Raptors and now appear likely to compromise their ability to contend for a title next season. With potential free-agents-to-be Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson recovering from a ruptured Achilles and torn ACL, respectively, Golden State may be preparing to commit huge money to two players who will barely see the court in 2019/20.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Warriors financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Stephen Curry ($40,231,758)
Draymond Green ($18,539,130)
Andre Iguodala ($17,185,185)
Damian Jones ($2,305,057)
Shaun Livingston ($2,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below. ¹
Jacob Evans ($1,925,880)
Total: $82,187,010

Player Options

Kevin Durant ($31,500,000)
Total: $31,500,000

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Shaun Livingston ($5,692,308) ¹
Alfonzo McKinnie ($1,588,231)
Total: $7,280,539

Restricted Free Agents

Quinn Cook ($1,931,189 qualifying offer / $1,931,189 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Jordan Bell ($1,818,486 qualifying offer / $1,818,486 cap hold): Early Bird rights
Marcus Derrickson (two-way qualifying offer / $1,443,842 cap hold): Non-Bird rights ²
Damion Lee (two-way qualifying offer / $1,443,842 cap hold): Non-Bird rights ²
Total: $6,637,359

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Klay Thompson ($28,483,088): Bird rights
DeMarcus Cousins ($6,404,400): Non-Bird rights
No. 28 overall pick ($1,962,360)
Matt Barnes ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights ³
Andrew Bogut ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Jonas Jerebko ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Kevon Looney ($1,618,486): Bird rights
David West ($1,618,486): Early Bird rights ³
Total: $44,942,278

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

Realistic cap room projection: $0
If the Warriors let all their free agents go, they could create some cap room, but that’s extremely unlikely. Thompson, at least, is expected to sign a deal that would put the club over the cap, and Durant, Cousins, Cook, and Looney are all candidates to return too.

Cap Exceptions Available

Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,711,000 ⁴

Footnotes

Livingston’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after June 30.
The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
The cap holds for Barnes and West remain on the Warriors’ books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
This is a projected value. If the Warriors don’t re-sign both Thompson and Durant, they may be able to stay out of tax territory. In that case, they could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Philadelphia 76ers

June 18th, 2019 at 11:06pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Sixers took two major in-season gambles during the 2018/19 campaign, plucking Jimmy Butler from Minnesota and putting together a package of assets to acquire Tobias Harris from the Clippers.

The team’s five starters played in just 10 regular season games together due to various injuries and rest management. Those five saw their playoff run cut short in the second round after playing only 11 postseason games together as a group. The organization longs for an opportunity to get a larger sample size on its collection of talent.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How many starters will the Sixers bring back?

Philadelphia will face immense competition for Butler, Harris, and J.J. Redick on the free agent market.

Multiple teams are expected to offer Harris a max deal, with the Nets standing out as a noteworthy threat. The interest between Harris and Brooklyn is reportedly mutual. The Grizzlies, Jazz, Mavericks, Kings, and Pacers have all been linked to Harris as well.

Butler is confident he’ll also receive a full max and the Lakers will be among the teams looking to swoop in and steal the four-time All-Star. GM Elton Brand plans on doing everything he can to bring Butler back.

Redick’s underwhelming playoffs aside, his shooting will be coveted by many teams in the league. He made just over $12MM last year, though it’s unclear what the price range for him will be going forward as he prepares to enter his age-35 season.

The Sixers will be among the offseason winners if they can bring back all five starters and supplement them with an additional role player or two. Of the three pending free agents, I’d speculate Butler is the most likely to leave.

2. What financial resources will they have to acquire additional talent?

Assuming all five starters come back, or at least Harris and Butler on max deals, the Sixers will likely operate as an over-the-cap team. That will allow them to use two exceptions:

The standard mid-level exception: $9,246,000.
The bi-annual exception: $3,619,000.

The team will have to be cognizant of the tax threshold when re-signing its own players. The tax line is projected to come in at $132MM and if the Sixers go over that, they are looking at a reduced mid-level (the $5,711,000 taxpayer MLE) and they’d lose the ability to use the bi-annual exception. It’s also worth noting that the 76ers have two small trade exceptions available ($957,480; $2,339,880), provided they remain an over-the-cap team.

As I mentioned on a recent edition of the NBA Math Hardwood Knocks Podcast, the Sixers can break up the MLE in separate pieces, signing multiple free agents with the exception. The team will look to add shooting this offseason, though overall depth is the overarching need.

Could the franchise bring in both Marcus Morris and Markieff Morris, allowing the Philadelphia natives to split the MLE and once again play together as they wished to do earlier in their careers? Marcus shot 37.5% from long range in 2018/19 and he’d provide a solid piece off the bench. Markieff is coming off an injury-plagued season and could be a buy-low target. Together, they could solidify the team’s forward rotation.

3. What about the rest of the Sixers’ free agents?

James Ennis would “love to come back” Philadelphia, as he recently told our own JD Shaw.

“I love the [Sixers] fans,” Ennis said. “I love how they support the team. I like Philly a lot and I would love to come back.”

The Sixers only hold Ennis’ Non-Bird rights, which limits their ability to offer him a substantial raise on his $1.62MM salary he made this past season. They’ll likely be forced to use one of their exceptions or cap room to make a competitive offer.

The team won’t be as limited in its ability to bring back several of its other free agents. Philadelphia holds T.J. McConnell‘s and Boban Marjanovic‘s full Bird rights and Amir Johnson‘s Early Bird rights. Mike Scott, like Ennis, will only have Non-Bird rights this offseason, but those rights will be a little more useful in Scott’s case due to his larger salary. The Sixers could offer Scott up to about $5.2MM using his Non-Bird rights.

If the team brings back both Harris and Butler, we should see a few of the Sixers’ other free agents return to fill out the bench. It’s hard to envision McConnell and Marjanovic not coming back, barring an unexpected offer from a rival club. Scott and Johnson could also return for low amounts, giving the Sixers stability in what should be something along the lines of their ninth through 13th man.

4. Will the Sixers continue their trend of trading in the draft?

The Sixers haven’t been afraid to move around on draft night. They’ve executed multiple trades with their draft picks in recent years:

2017

Traded up to the No. 1 overall slot to select Markelle Fultz prior to the draft.
Traded two 2020 draft picks to the Magic for the rights to the No. 25 overall pick (Anzejs Pasecniks).
Traded the Nos. 39 and 46 picks away for cash.

2018

Traded No. 10 (Mikal Bridges) to the Suns for the No. 16 (Zhaire Smith) and a 2021 first-rounder.
Traded No. 38 overall (Khyri Thomas) to the Pistons for two future second-round picks.
Acquires No. 54 (Shake Milton) from the Mavericks for No. 56 (Ray Spalding) and No. 60 (Kostas Antetokounmpo).

The Sixers currently have five selections for Thursday’s draft. The first comes in at No. 24, which is a selection that Brand and his front office aim to turn into an immediate contributor. Cameron Johnson from North Carolina or Villanova’s Eric Paschall might fit the bill.

It’s unlikely the 76ers will use all four of their second-rounders (Nos. 33, 34, 42, and 54) on players who will be on their roster in 2019/20, so stay tuned for another draft night trade in Philadelphia.

5. What if the Sixers lose Butler, Harris, and Redick in free agency?

The Sixers have approximately $41MM in guarantees for just four players: Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Smith, and Jonah Bolden. Factoring in minimum roster cap holds, Philadelphia could carve out roughly $58MM in space, assuming the team waives Jonathon Simmons, leaves Pasecniks abroad or trades him, and renounces every pending free agent.

An optimist would look at this situation and say they’re still in position to add a max free agent. But if two max free agents like Harris and Butler decide to take less to go elsewhere, it’s not a promising outlook for the club. For what it’s worth, Philadelphia can offer Harris and Butler more years and larger annual raises than any other team.

It seems unlikely that Embiid and Simmons are the Sixers only returning starters next season. If Philadelphia is forced to put an entirely new cast around the young duo next season, it would be a loss for the franchise.

Check out the Philadelphia 76ers’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Brooklyn Nets

June 15th, 2019 at 8:28pm CST by Luke Adams

After spending several years mired in NBA obscurity as the ramifications of an ill-fated trade with Boston limited their ability to acquire impact talent, the Nets finally broke through in 2018/19, earning their first playoff berth since 2015.

Suddenly, with the weight of the Celtics trade off their shoulders (Brooklyn’s 2018 first-round pick was the final piece of that deal), the Nets have a bright future ahead of them. They managed to add young talent like D’Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert, and Jarrett Allen in recent years despite a dearth of lottery picks, and they’re now positioned to bring in one or two star free agents to complement their young core.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. What does the Nets’ Allen Crabbe trade signify?

It’s rare for two NBA teams to reach an agreement on a trade before the NBA Finals end, but the Nets and Hawks did just that last week, agreeing to a swap that will send Crabbe to Atlanta along with two first-round picks (this year’s No. 17 overall selection and next year’s top-14 protected pick). In return, Brooklyn will receive solid young wing Taurean Prince, Atlanta’s 2021 second-round pick, and – most importantly – additional cap flexibility.

The trade can’t officially be completed until July for cap reasons. But after removing the cap hold for the No. 17 pick ($2.96MM) and Crabbe’s expiring salary ($18.5MM) from their books and replacing it with Prince’s expiring deal ($3.48MM) and an empty roster charge ($897K), the Nets will have created about $17MM in extra cap space.

Before the deal, the Nets had no path to two maximum-salary slots and wouldn’t have had enough space for even a single max free agent if they’d retained Russell’s cap hold. Now, even if Russell sticks around, the club can comfortably afford a max-level player along with a second free agent above the mid-level. Renouncing Russell would clear a path to two max slots (with a caveat, as we’ll explain in the next section).

Teams generally don’t make this sort of move unless they know something — the Nets aren’t giving up two first-round picks to shed salary unless they’re pretty confident that the extra cap space will come in handy.

It’s probably not a coincidence that rumors linking Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn heated up right around the same time this deal was agreed upon. While things could change in the next few weeks, the possibility of Irving becoming a Net looks increasingly likely in the wake of the Crabbe trade, as a Thursday report suggested.

2. Is the Nets’ goal to pair Irving with Kevin Durant?

For much of the year, Irving and Durant have been linked to the Knicks, with rumors swirling throughout the season that the two friends were eyeing a move to New York in free agency. But if Irving’s focus has shifted from the Knicks to the Nets, it’s reasonable to wonder if maybe Durant’s has, too.

For their part, the Nets appear to be very interested in bringing both stars to Brooklyn. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski recently reported as much, even after Durant suffered an Achilles tear that will likely sideline him for all of next season. But the team has also been linked to a handful of other top free agents, including Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler.

While a healthy Durant would be Brooklyn’s first choice, it’s not clear whether the injured version will still be atop the club’s wish list if Harris or Butler are clamoring to sign with the Nets. If only one of the three is interested in becoming a Net, it would simplify the team’s decision-making process; otherwise, GM Sean Marks and his front office will have to decide how to weigh the short- and long-term benefits of adding each player.

It’s worth noting that even though it’s been reported the Nets now have two maximum-salary slots, the team doesn’t actually have enough room for Irving and Durant quite yet.

If they renounce Russell and sign Irving to a max deal, the Nets would have about $35.8MM in space. That’s enough for a maximum contract for Harris or Butler, who are eligible for up to 30% of the cap ($32.7MM). But since Durant has 10+ years of experience and can get a starting salary worth up to 35% of the cap, he’d be eligible for a projected $38.15MM max. The Nets would need to make another minor move or two to create that room.

3. What does D’Angelo Russell’s future hold?

It’s not really fair to Russell, who enjoyed a breakout season and made his first All-Star team in 2018/19, that he’s practically an afterthought heading into the team’s offseason. He’ll be a restricted free agent, and appears likely to receive a maximum-salary or near-max deal. Since he has fewer than seven years of NBA experience, D-Lo can get a starting salary worth up to 25% of the cap, which projects to be $27.25MM.

If the Nets can lure two top veteran free agents to Brooklyn, they’ll probably renounce Russell and let him move on to a new home as an unrestricted free agent, since his cap hold would get in the way of opening up space and getting anything for him in a sign-and-trade would be tricky.

But if the Nets don’t get those two star free agents, things with Russell could get interesting. He has sent signals that he’d welcome playing alongside Irving, but I can’t see a scenario in which both point guards and Spencer Dinwiddie are all on the roster next season.

A Dinwiddie trade is possible, since that would at least allow the Nets to maximize their assets, but that would mean investing huge money in two free agent point guards, which isn’t an ideal outcome. I’m also not sold on the Irving/Russell fit in general.

Marks’ history of going after other teams’ restricted free agents also shouldn’t be overlooked here either. Those past offer sheets to players like Crabbe, Tyler Johnson, Otto Porter, and Donatas Motiejunas might have rubbed some teams the wrong way, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there are clubs eager to turn the tables on Marks this summer. Extending a lucrative offer sheet to Russell and forcing the Nets into a tough decision early in free agency would be a way to do so.

At this point, it looks slightly more likely that Russell will join a new team rather than re-sign with the Nets, but there are so many moving pieces involved that things could change quickly. A long-term stay remains possible for Russell if Irving doesn’t end up choosing Brooklyn or doesn’t get another star to follow him to the Nets.

4. Will the Nets extend Caris LeVert?

While Russell’s breakout performance carried the Nets for much of the season, it’s easy to forget now that LeVert looked like the team’s best player in the early going before a serious foot injury sidelined him for a good chunk of the season.

With Russell receiving significant defensive attention from the Sixers in the playoffs, LeVert appeared to be reclaiming that title, averaging 21.0 PPG on .493/.462/.724 shooting in five games (Russell posted 19.4 PPG on .359/.324/.846 shooting).

As the Nets navigate possible cap-room and positional concerns to determine Russell’s future, they should have no such issues with LeVert. No free agent that Brooklyn adds should overlap with LeVert in a way that diminishes his skill set, and the Nets are in position to sign him this offseason to a rookie scale extension that would go into effect in 2020/21.

Assuming LeVert isn’t included in a trade package for another star, I expect the Nets to make a strong effort to get something done with him this offseason. Coming off his injury, they might be able to lock him up at a slightly lesser rate than they would in restricted free agency in 2020 once he has another full season under his belt. Plus, if this summer goes well, Brooklyn will likely be an over-the-cap team for the foreseeable future, so avoiding an early agreement with LeVert in order to keep his smaller cap hold on the 2020/21 books won’t be a priority.

That doesn’t guarantee that the two sides will get something done by the October extension deadline, but I think they’ll try.

5. How should the Nets add size to their frontcourt?

Allen is an impressive young center, and Ed Davis was a savvy veteran addition to last year’s roster. The duo performed well for Brooklyn all season. However, the front line’s lack of size hurt the team at times — particularly in the playoffs, when Joel Embiid ran roughshod over the Nets (to the tune of 24.8 PPG and 13.5 RPG in just 24.3 MPG).

The Nets will reportedly consider beefing up their frontcourt in the draft, but it’s unlikely that they’ll find an immediate answer there, especially now that they’ve traded away the No. 17 pick.

With Anthony Davis heading to the Lakers, trading for the superstar is no longer an option.

The Nets’ top free agent targets aren’t big men, so the position may have to be addressed in the bargain bin in free agency, as the club did last year when it signed Davis (Ed, not Anthony) using the room exception.

This time around, a veteran like Tyson Chandler, Robin Lopez, or DeAndre Jordan would be a good fit on Brooklyn’s roster if the Nets can afford one of them and offer the kind of role they’d be seeking.

Check out the Brooklyn Nets’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 6/8/19 – 6/15/19

June 15th, 2019 at 1:00pm CST by clarkcrum

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our segments and features from the past seven days:

Hoops Rumors’ own JD Shaw sat down with swingman James Ennis to discuss his decision to turn down his $1.85MM player option with the Sixers, what he hopes to accomplish in free agency, and his ultimate desire to stay in Philadelphia long term.
Luke Adams took a look at some offseason trade restrictions in place for NBA teams.
Our lone Community Shootaround discussion post this week addressed whether Kevin Durant‘s return to the court could save the series for the Warriors. Painfully for Golden State – in more ways than one – it could not.
In his weekly mailbag, Arthur Hill answered readers’ questions regarding the free agency of Kemba Walker and Durant, as well as the Wizards’ 2019/20 outlook.
Our Five Key Offseason Questions series focused on the following teams this week:
With free agency right around the corner, Luke Adams explained why sign-and-trade arrangements are so rare these days.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Utah Jazz

June 13th, 2019 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

After a torrid second-half run to finish the 2017/18 season, the Jazz entered the 2018/19 campaign widely viewed as a probable top-four seed in the Western Conference. A brutal first-half schedule ultimately prevented Utah from reaching that goal, but the team finished strong again and reached the 50-win mark.

Unfortunately, for a second straight postseason, the Jazz found themselves matched up against their nemeses in Houston, and were unable to take more than a single game from the Rockets. The Jazz had a pretty quiet offseason a year ago, but in the wake of their early exit from the playoffs, they appear far less likely to run it back with the same roster again.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How drastically will the Jazz change their roster?

A year ago, the Jazz bet on continuity and the continued improvement of young players like Donovan Mitchell and Dante Exum. The team figures to take a different approach this time around, as newly-promoted president of basketball operations Dennis Lindsey indicated at season’s end.

“We want to move the group forward,” Lindsey told reporters after the Jazz were eliminated from the postseason. “And while we have a very good team, the results told us that we don’t have a great team.”

Lindsey’s comments suggest changes are on the way, but we know that the Jazz aren’t about to rebuild their roster from the ground up. Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are safe. Joe Ingles probably isn’t going anywhere either. However, there may not be many guarantees beyond that.

Derrick Favors has been in Utah since coming over from the Nets as the centerpiece of the Deron Williams trade in 2011, but his $17.6MM salary for next season is non-guaranteed, and he isn’t a lock to return.

Ricky Rubio has been the Jazz’s starting point guard for the last two seasons, but he told an international outlet earlier this month that he may not be in the team’s plans going forward.

The Jazz have been high on Exum since selecting him fifth overall in the 2014 draft, but after another injury-plagued season, it’s not clear how much longer the Australian point guard will be a fixture in Utah.

The Jazz’s core isn’t going anywhere, but there’s a possibility the pieces around them will look significantly different in 2019/20.

2. What will the Jazz do with Favors?

While Gobert and Favors have never quite been the ideal pairing in Utah’s frontcourt, the duo has made it work, and Favors has been better than ever in recent years.

The one-time Net, who starts alongside Gobert at power forward and also backs him up at center, averaged 11.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 1.4 BPG with a career-best .586 FG% in just 23.2 minutes per game last season. While a $17.6MM salary might be a slight overpay for Favors, you could find a less favorable contract on nearly every NBA team’s cap.

The fact that Favors’ salary is non-guaranteed presents an interesting dilemma for the Jazz though. If he’s waived by July 6, the team could open up enough cap room to sign a maximum-salary free agent, or to sign multiple players for more than the mid-level. Releasing Favors or inserting him in a trade package could also be a path to acquiring an impact player (such as Mike Conley) via trade.

Because Favors isn’t on an expiring contract and would have to be released to accommodate another major move, the Jazz wouldn’t retain his Bird rights, which would severely limit the club’s ability to re-sign him later in free agency. So does Utah bring back Favors at his $17.6MM price tag and make do with about $20MM+ in potential cap space, or take a bigger swing by cutting him?

3. Is landing a top free agent a possibility for the Jazz?

Fortunately for the Jazz, the Favors question may be indirectly answered based on what the club is able to do on the trade market around the draft, or on the free agent market in the first week of July. Because Favors’ salary doesn’t become fully guaranteed until July 6, the team has some time to evaluate its options before determining whether it will actually need the extra cap flexibility that waiving the big man would create.

Although Utah hasn’t historically been a top free agent destination and this management group has never recruited a big-money star, the Jazz have been linked to a handful of top FAs this spring. The club is reportedly considering making a run at Tobias Harris, while D’Angelo Russell is considered another target, and so is Kemba Walker.

Do the Jazz actually have a shot at any of these players? Well, Russell – a restricted free agent – is probably only a realistic target if the Nets pull his qualifying offer on the table, since Utah won’t want to waive Favors only to sign Russell to an offer sheet that might be matched. Even then, would Harris, Russell, or Walker choose Utah over their incumbent teams, or the other bigger-market suitors who will be pursuing them?

It’s impossible to say at this point. I wouldn’t consider the Jazz the favorites for any of those players, but they’ll have the cap flexibility to make a competitive offer. And there are far worse situations for a veteran like Harris or Walker than playing alongside a scorer like Mitchell and a defensive stopper like Gobert.

If the Jazz strike out on top targets, retaining Favors and using their remaining cap room to add a couple mid-level type players wouldn’t be a bad fallback plan.

4. How will the Jazz address their point guard position?

If Rubio is right that the Jazz don’t consider him a priority, the team is likely thinking bigger. After all, there are only a handful of point guards available this summer who would represent legit upgrades over the Spaniard.

We mentioned two above — Walker and Russell would be nice fits with the Jazz since they’re point guards who are capable of sharing ball-handling duties with Mitchell and reliably knocking down outside shots when they’re playing off-ball. Rubio has never been that kind of three-point threat.

Still, the best fit for Utah might be Conley, a player whom the team nearly acquired from the Grizzlies at the trade deadline. A smart, heady veteran like Conley could help make Jazz players better in the same way that his longtime teammate Marc Gasol did when he arrived in Toronto earlier this year. Conley is also coming off an All-Star caliber season and would give Utah another play-maker who can break down defenses, taking some pressure off Mitchell.

When the Jazz and Grizzlies discussed Conley prior to the 2019 trade deadline, there were rumors that Memphis wanted the Jazz to add an extra first-round pick or Exum to their offer, which was a deal-breaker for Utah. The Grizzlies’ interest in Exum may have waned now that they’re in position to draft Ja Morant. Perhaps Memphis would be swayed by an offer that features Favors’ expiring deal, a couple first-round picks (including this year’s No. 23), and cap relief.

If the Jazz strike out on Conley, Walker, and Russell, circling back to Rubio might be a possibility. If that ship has sailed, Patrick Beverley and Darren Collison are among the most desirable free agents available at the position. A veteran on an expiring contract like Jeff Teague or Goran Dragic might hold some appeal too, if the Wolves or Heat are looking to dump their salaries.

5. Will Dante Exum be a trade candidate?

When the Jazz acquired Rubio two years ago, there was some hope that he’d help bridge the gap at point guard until Exum – who was just 22 years old at the time – was ready to take on a greater role.

The former top-five pick has appeared in just 56 games since then, and while he has flashed tantalizing upside at times, it’s hard to count on him for more than backup minutes at this point. In fact, even that may be optimistic, given his health issues.

As noted above, the Jazz have never given up on Exum, re-signing him to a fully guaranteed three-year, $28.8MM contract last summer. But now they find themselves in a tough spot. If contending for a title in the near future is the goal, it might make more sense to send Exum to a team that can better afford to roll the dice on his upside rather than continuing to exercise patience and waiting for the youngster to grow into a larger role.

The Jazz may have no choice but to remain patient on Exum though — after undergoing another procedure on his knee in March, his value is at a low point and he no longer represents much more than salary filler in any deal. If Utah sticks with him, maybe he gets healthy and rebuilds his value next season.

Check out the Utah Jazz’s offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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