Hoops Rumors Originals

Revisiting Hoops Rumors’ 2018/19 NBA Predictions

May 30th, 2019 at 10:55am CST by Luke Adams

Back in October, seven members of Hoops Rumors’ writing team made predictions for the 2018/19 season, attempting to name the top eight teams in each conference, the conference and championship winners, and the players and coaches who would take home this year’s major awards.

Revisiting preseason predictions several months later is always a humbling experience, as events that seemed inevitable in the fall never quite play out the way we expect during the season. But in the interest of full accountability, we’re taking a look back at those predictions today to see where we went wrong and which picks we got right (or at least close enough to claim a win).

Let’s dive in…

The Good:

We weren’t exactly going out on a limb, but six of us had the Warriors winning the NBA Finals, with two of us specifically identifying the Raptors as their opponent. That scenario is still in play.
Two of us predicted that Giannis Antetokounmpo would win the 2018/19 MVP award, and he currently appears to be the frontrunner among the three finalists.
All seven of us picked either Luka Doncic, Trae Young, and Deandre Ayton for Rookie of the Year, and they’re the three finalists for the award.
Elsewhere on the awards front, three of us had Rudy Gobert as our Defensive Player of the Year, and he remains in the running. Plus, three of us predicted Mike Budenholzer would win Coach of the Year — he’s one of the finalists.

The Bad:

Not one of us predicted the Bucks would place higher than third in the Eastern Conference (they finished first). We were also too low on the Nuggets, with no one expecting them to come in higher than fourth in the West (they finished second).
All seven of us expected the Heat and Wizards would make the playoffs in the East. Miami narrowly missed out, while Washington didn’t come close. We were also too high on the Pelicans in the West (five of us had them making the postseason).
Sixth Man of the Year is a tricky award to predict, since rotations and lineups can change over the course of the season, but the fact that none of us had Lou Williams as our winner still isn’t great. None of our picks – including J.J. Redick and Eric Gordon, who didn’t last long as bench players – became finalists. To make matters worse, two of our Sixth Man selections – Tyreke Evans and Carmelo Anthony – are no longer even in the NBA.

The Ugly:

The Celtics and Lakers made all of us look bad this year. All seven of us had Boston playing in the Eastern Conference Finals, with five of us putting Boston in the NBA Finals. As for the Lakers, we all predicted they’d make the playoffs, forecasting them to finish as high as third in the West. They finished 10th.
It’s possible we were way too bullish on the idea of LeBron James having a transcendent year. Five of us had him as our 2018/19 MVP. He missed over a month during the season and barely made an All-NBA team.
Apologies to Trail Blazers fans. Only three of us picked them to make the postseason, with no one putting them higher than seventh in the conference. They earned the No. 3 seed and made the Western Conference Finals.
Most Improved Player is another difficult award to predict, but a couple of us were way off the mark in choosing Markelle Fultz. The former No. 1 overall pick played just 19 games in a disappointing sophomore season.

With the NBA Finals set to get underway and the major awards set to be unveiled in a few weeks, which of your own predictions for the 2018/19 season were right on the money or way off the mark? Head to the comment section below to boast about your foresight and/or laugh about your missteps.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Hoops Rumors Originals

Checking In On Early Entrants For 2019 NBA Draft

May 30th, 2019 at 9:47am CST by Luke Adams

The NCAA’s deadline for early entrants in the 2019 NBA draft to withdraw and retain their college eligibility passed on Wednesday night at midnight. Although we relayed most of the draft decisions before that point, a few more trickled in late.

Most notably, Western Kentucky big man Charles Bassey, who appeared ready to go pro, had a last-minute change of heart and decided to withdraw from the draft, as Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports reports (via Twitter). Bassey, who had been a top-80 prospect on ESPN’s big board and was a candidate to be drafted, will instead head back to Western Kentucky for his sophomore season.

Meanwhile, a list of early entrant decisions from Jeff Goodman of Stadium includes two withdrawals that previously flew under the radar. According to Goodman’s list, Prairie View A&M forward Devonte Patterson and Redemption Christian Academy swingman Tony Goodwin II both pulled out of the draft before Wednesday’s deadline.

As our list of early entrants shows, that leaves almost an even split behind the college underclassmen who remain in the draft pool (88 players) and those who withdrew (89). However, the early entrant list hasn’t yet been finalized.

While the NCAA’s withdrawal deadline has now passed, the NBA’s withdrawal deadline doesn’t arrive until June 10, which means the league won’t formally issue a complete list of early entrants eligible for the 2019 draft until after that date.

In the weeks and days leading up to June 10, we can expect to hear plenty of updates on decisions being made by international early entrants, who weren’t subject to the NCAA’s deadline. A total of 59 international players showed up on the initial list of early entrants for 2019, but the majority of them will likely withdraw from the draft by June 10. At that point, we’ll have a complete picture of which players will be draft-eligible on June 20.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New Orleans Pelicans

May 29th, 2019 at 4:04pm CST by Luke Adams

Like the Timberwolves, the Pelicans entered the 2018/19 season hoping to build on a promising return to the playoffs during the previous spring, but instead saw their year torpedoed by a trade request that led to a messy public saga.

Unlike Minnesota, New Orleans didn’t actually end up trading its star, but that didn’t help the team’s general manager save his job. Dell Demps was dismissed during the season and has since been replaced by David Griffin, a veteran executive who has an NBA championship on his résumé.

It’ll now be up to Griffin to decide what to do with Anthony Davis, but it’s not all bad news for the Pelicans’ incoming executive VP of basketball operations — by virtue of winning the draft lottery earlier this month, the team is positioned to secure a new franchise player, Zion Williamson, even if its current one has played his last game for the club.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Would David Griffin be willing to keep Anthony Davis with no long-term assurances?

Griffin and Davis met today in Los Angeles. According to a report, the two sides are expected to “continue a dialogue” about their future going forward. But for now, let’s assume that despite his best efforts, Griffin is unable to convince Davis to withdraw his trade request and recommit to the Pelicans.

Davis is still under contract for one more year before he can reach unrestricted free agency, and the Pelicans aren’t obligated to trade him. While AD may have burned some bridges with fans in New Orleans, he seemed to be getting along with his teammates and Alvin Gentry‘s coaching staff just fine through the end of the 2018/19 season. He also acknowledged at season’s end that it won’t really be up to him where he plays in 2019/20, admitting that he could return to the team next season.

All that is to say that Griffin and the Pelicans could roll the dice with their All-Star big man, keeping him on the roster to start the ’19/20 campaign. That would give the club more time to sell Davis on a future in New Orleans, and would give AD a chance to see what it’d be like to play alongside Williamson. If he’s still not sold by February, the Pels could flip him at the trade deadline and should still be able to secure a serious haul.

That approach would be a risky one though. If Davis is willing to bypass a super-max extension with the Pelicans this offseason, why should the team have any confidence that he’d change his mind a few months later? And if Davis should suffer a major injury as a Pelican in the fall or winter, his trade value would crater. By moving him this summer, the Pels could bring more suitors to the table and would increase their chances of maximizing the return for their top asset.

2. What kind of return could the Pelicans get for Davis?

If we assume the most likely outcome for Davis is a trade during the 2019 offseason, it’s worth exploring what the Pelicans might be able to get back for him. Chris Crouse’ examination of the top trade assets held by several potential Davis suitors is a good place to start.

The most attractive offer for Davis figures to depend on what sort of pieces the Pelicans value most. If they’re looking ahead to the distant future, a Knicks package headlined by this year’s No. 3 overall pick, several future selections (including Dallas’ 2021 unprotected first-rounder), and a youngster or two (the Pels would likely target Mitchell Robinson and Kevin Knox) could be tantalizing. The Lakers and Celtics could also offer packages heavy on draft picks and young prospects.

On the other hand, if New Orleans wants to try to contend right away, there are other teams that would be better fits. How aggressive might the Clippers be going after Davis, for instance? Because acquiring some combination of players from a group that features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Landry Shamet, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, and Danilo Gallinari could really appeal to New Orleans.

Ultimately, the Pelicans’ return for Davis could come down to one team holding a player New Orleans seriously covets. We’ve seen this happen several times in recent years — the Kings targeted Buddy Hield when they traded DeMarcus Cousins, the Pacers loved Victor Oladipo when trading Paul George, and the Spurs – who wanted an All-Star caliber player for Kawhi Leonard – zeroed in on DeMar DeRozan.

If there’s a specific player out there that the Pelicans are in love with, whether that’s someone like Jayson Tatum, Gilgeous-Alexander, or a target who comes out of left field like Oladipo did, that could give that player’s team a significant upper hand in the AD sweepstakes.

3. Does Griffin plan on rebuilding or retooling the roster?

When a new executive takes over an NBA front office, he generally has a few years to build the sort of team he wants to before he starts having to worry about being on the hot seat or making job-saving moves. That allows that exec to be patient as he acquires assets and lines up his new team’s salary cap favorably for the future.

An all-out rebuild along those lines in New Orleans is possible. If Griffin doesn’t see an immediate path to contention, he could shop both Davis and Jrue Holiday for long-term assets and would almost certainly end up with a boatload of them as he looks to build around Williamson.

But that’s probably not the most logical path for the new Pelicans exec, whose situation is a little different than it would be for someone taking over a typical lottery team. Williamson is the sort of prospect who can contribute right away, so it doesn’t necessarily make sense for the Pelicans to aim to be good in two or three years while they wait for him to develop into an impact player — he’s capable of being that player now.

Similarly, Holiday is under contract for at least two more seasons (he has a player option for 2021/22) on a reasonable deal, given the rising cap, and remains very much in his prime. New Orleans also has virtually no bad deals on its books outside of Solomon Hill‘s, and that contract ($12.76MM in 2019/20) will come off the cap a year from now, so there’s no need to wait several years to gain flexibility.

Even if Griffin ultimately decides to trade Davis, the players and picks he gets in return could complement Williamson and Holiday right away, or could be flipped into pieces that would. I’d expect the team to take that route. That doesn’t mean that Griffin will push all his chips in the middle in the hopes of short-term success, but there’s no need to tear everything down either. This is a core capable of getting back to the playoffs pretty soon.

4. Will Julius Randle be back with the Pelicans?

Randle, 24, just kept improving in 2018/19, averaging a career-best 21.4 PPG for the Pelicans on .524/.344/.731 shooting. Now, he’ll face an interesting decision, as his two-year contract with New Orleans features a $9MM player option for 2019/20.

Randle has never been a particularly strong defender, and the going rate for scoring big men who do most of their work close to the basket isn’t what it used to be. As such, it’s not a lock that Randle would do better on the open market than he would if he opts in for $9MM. Opting in would also put him a position to reach unrestricted free agency in 2020, which projects to be a weak FA class.

Still, I’d be a little surprised if Randle doesn’t explore the market this summer, and if he does, I’m not sure how aggressively the Pelicans will try to bring him back. Many of his offensive skills overlap with Zion’s, creating some uncertainty about how those two players would complement one another. If that pairing doesn’t work, Randle would likely have to come off the bench again. He may want to seek another opportunity that would give him a better chance at a starting role.

If Randle opts in or is willing to sign another short-term deal, New Orleans could welcome him back, but if not, the team may scour the market for a more defensive-minded big, or one that can spread the floor a little more on offense.

5. How about the rest of the Pelicans’ free agents and non-guaranteed players?

Only four Pelicans players – Davis, Holiday, Hill, and E’Twaun Moore – currently have guaranteed contracts for next season. However, the team still has control of a handful of young players via non-guaranteed salaries, team options, or restricted free agency.

Stanley Johnson and Cheick Diallo can be RFAs, while Jahlil Okafor has a minimum salary team option and Christian Wood, Frank Jackson, Kenrich Williams, and Dairis Bertans all have non-guaranteed minimum salaries.

Griffin, of course, didn’t acquire any of those players and won’t necessarily be attached to any of them, but a few of them look like good value plays. Okafor, Wood, Jackson, and Williams all flashed upside at times in 2018/19, and cost a total of about $6.4MM for next season. I’d be a little surprised if the club lets them get away for nothing.

The others are wild cards, but Johnson will be a free agent worth watching. I’m not particularly confident that the Pelicans will even issue him the $4.49MM qualifying offer necessary to make him a restricted free agent, but he just turned 23 years old today, and his three-and-D potential still exists. If New Orleans gives up in him and he lands in a favorable situation elsewhere, he’ll be a candidate to finally emerge as a reliable rotation player.

Check out the New Orleans Pelicans’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: 2019 NBA Finals Predictions

May 29th, 2019 at 3:12pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2019 NBA Finals are set to get underway on Thursday night. Game 1 will be the first Finals game to take place outside of the United States, as the 58-24 Raptors narrowly beat out the 57-25 Warriors for home court advantage.

Despite Toronto’s home court advantage and regular season edge – including a 2-0 record vs. Golden State – the Warriors will enter the series as the overwhelming favorites to win their fourth title in five years, and third in a row. Even without Kevin Durant in their lineup for the start of the series, the Dubs have enough weapons on both ends of the court that they’ll be difficult to beat.

Of course, Golden State’s top weapon is Stephen Curry, who has gone into full-on Human Torch mode since Durant went down vs. Houston. In his last five games – all Warriors wins – Curry shot 41.7% on 14.4 three-point attempts per contest, and has scored at least 33 points in every game.

Klay Thompson has been a reliable No. 2 scoring option, averaging 22.6 PPG with a .400 3PT% over those five games, while Draymond Green has filled up the box score (14.8 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 8.4 APG, 2.4 BPG, 2.0 SPG) and been everywhere on defense.

Still, the Warriors have yet to face a defense like this Raptors’ unit in the postseason. Toronto’s starting lineup features a pair of former Defensive Players of the Year (Kawhi Leonard and Marc Gasol) and a former All-Defensive guard (Danny Green) to go along with stout and savvy point guard Kyle Lowry and an athletic forward who can guard all five positions (Pascal Siakam).

Throw in three-time All-Defensive player Serge Ibaka off the bench, and this is a Raptors team that’s capable of adjusting its scheme to a variety of offensive attacks, and switching, trapping, and helping as necessary. It’s possible that no NBA team can truly stop the Warriors, but this looks like the club that’s best equipped to slow them down.

The Raptors haven’t been as dangerous on offense during the playoffs, but Leonard is capable of single-handedly carrying the squad on that end of the court at times, and has turned in an all-time postseason performance through three rounds (31.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG, .507/.388/.875 shooting). In Thompson, Green, and Andre Iguodala, the Warriors have plenty of excellent defenders to throw at him, but Leonard is talented enough to score 30 points even on nights when the defense plays him well.

What do you think? Will the Warriors cement their place in NBA history by becoming the first franchise since the 2000-02 Lakers to win three straight championships? Or will the Raptors pull off the upset and bring Canada its first ever NBA title?

After voting in our poll, head to the comment section to weigh in further on this showdown. Will we see much of Durant this series? How heavily will the outcome weigh on his presence or absence? Will other injured players like DeMarcus Cousins or OG Anunoby make an impact? Which matchups do you expect each team to try to exploit?

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Top 25 Assets Among Presumed Anthony Davis Contenders

May 29th, 2019 at 8:07am CST by ChrisCrouse

The Anthony Davis sweepstakes are expected to be in full swing until the Pelicans trade the disgruntled big man. Hoops Rumors surveyed past and present NBA executives and scouts to compile a ranking of the players and picks available to the presumed Davis contenders.

We included the Lakers, Knicks, and Celtics, as each has been linked to the big man, as well as the Clippers, who could be the wild card team that acquires him. There may be a number of other suitors for Davis once trade talks begin in earnest, but for now these are the four teams that look best positioned – and most motivated – to make a play for the Pelicans’ star.

Before we move onto our rankings, it’s worth noting that we did not including LeBron James when speaking with sources, since it’s extremely unlikely the Lakers would trade him. Players with the ability to hit the open market, such as Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, were also not included.

Let’s dive in…

1. Jayson Tatum (Celtics)
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Clippers)
3. No. 3 Overall Pick (Knicks)

There’s an important distinction to remember as we navigate through these players and picks: not everyone within the league is aligned on the value of each asset. The top tier, like many of these clusters, comes down to what exactly you value most.

What route the Pelicans will take if they meet Davis’ trade request isn’t known. New head of basketball operations David Griffin could opt for a full rebuild around Zion Williamson. Or he could look to build around Jrue Holiday and Williamson, aiming to contend for a playoff spot sooner rather than later. The Pelicans were not immediately available to comment on their plan or ranking.

Jayson Tatum is a sure thing. Plug him into the starting lineup in New Orleans and he immediately raises the club’s floor. While he may not ever develop into a true MVP-caliber player and has just two years remaining on his rookie-scale contract, he’s a tantalizing trade chip.

A prospect like R.J. Barrett, the favorite to be selected No. 3 overall, would be on a cost-controlled deal for four years and his cap projection would align with Zion’s in New Orleans, providing an enormous amount of flexibility for a franchise.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has three years remaining on his rookie deal, showed progress over the course of the season and the Clippers love him. While there’s a chance he doesn’t reach it, SGA may have a higher ceiling than Tatum.

One former executive said Gilgeous-Alexander should be No. 1 on this list, telling Hoops Rumors that the 6’5″ point guard would be under strong consideration for the No. 2 overall pick if he were in this year’s draft. Other opinions ranged from definitive top-five selection to simply top 10.

Steve Ballmer‘s club has every asset needed to get a deal done with the Pelicans without including SGA. As for the Celtics, Tatum may not even be on the table in a Davis deal either. Boston could ostensibly acquire Davis without including Tatum, but it would likely require Griffin to have googly eyes for Jaylen Brown or the 2020 Memphis pick (more on that below).

We haven’t heard officially whether the Knicks would pony up the No. 3 overall pick for Davis. There were conflicting reports before the lottery on whether they would have been willing to trade the rights to Williamson for AD if they had landed the No. 1 pick.

4. No. 4 Overall Pick (Lakers)
5. Memphis’ 2020 Top-6 Protected First-Rounder (Celtics)

Opinions are split on the Memphis pick. Some believe the league has overvalued the Celtics’ accumulated selections. For example, the Kings’ selection was once perceived as gold. It ultimately ended up as this year’s No. 14 overall pick (Boston’s, via the Markelle Fultz deal with Philly, via Sacramento’s salary dump of Nik Stauskas, Carl Landry, and Jason Thompson).Read more

Memphis is expected to seriously consider trading Mike Conley and beginning a rebuild this summer; it could be a while before the Grizzlies sniff contention again. However, the selection is top-six protected for next year, meaning if the club as inexperienced as expected, the Grizzlies will retain the pick.

The asset is still extremely valuable, but regardless of what most predict will happen with the Grizzlies over the next few years, ranking this year’s selection ahead of that pick comes down to a bird-in-hand philosophy, according to sources. The certainty of a top-five pick today trumps the possibilities of tomorrow, even if there’s a perceived drop-off between the top three in the upcoming draft (Williamson, Ja Morant, and Barrett) and everyone else.

6. Lonzo Ball (Lakers)

Distractions surrounding the Lakers and Lonzo Ball aside, the point guard remains highly valued around the league. One source indicated that he would only take Tatum or one of the top-five picks in this year’s draft over the point guard.

7. Mavericks’ 2021 Unprotected First-Rounder (Knicks)

The Mavericks’ 2021 unprotected pick is a juicy asset. The franchise operates with a sense of confidence – or arrogance, depending on who you ask – betting on its infrastructure and its front office to attract talent and put out a contender. The Mavs have had some success with this approach (Harrison Barnes, Chandler Parsons, etc), but have also seen their share of strikeouts (such as the post-title Tyson Chandler decision).

Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis make Dallas’ future bright and it’s arguable that joining that duo on the upswing is a more desired situation than teaming up with an aging Dirk Nowitzki was. The situation brings hope for the future.

But it’s not certain that the Mavericks will rise in the Western Conference. New Orleans landing Zion likely takes a long rebuild – one that would have the Pelicans still picking up the pieces from a Davis departure in 2021 – off the table.

The Warriors, Rockets, Jazz, Blazers, and Nuggets all have solid foundations that are unlikely to deteriorate by the 2020/21 season. The Clippers proved they can put out a playoff-caliber roster this season and they’ll be in the hunt for major free agents this summer and next. The Thunder will be several seasons into the Paul George–Russell Westbrook pairing and the Lakers may have already found a co-star for LeBron by then. The Kings, Wolves, and Suns have young nuclei on similar trajectories to the Mavs, while the Spurs will have seen a few seasons from their rotation of young guards by 2021.

How many Western Conference teams are nearly certain to be worse than Dallas? The Grizzlies may be the only franchise with a definitely dimmer two-year outlook than Mark Cuban‘s squad and even they could strike gold if Morant (or any prospect they take over the next two drafts) has a Chris Paul– or Deron Williams-like effect.

With the likely Rookie of the Year winner on hand, the Mavericks’ future is bright and the team could just as easily be a perennial playoff contender by 2021. However, that outcome is far from a certainty, which makes this pick’s upside evident and the asset one of the most valuable in the Knicks’ cupboard.

8. Kyle Kuzma (Lakers)
9. Jaylen Brown (Celtics)

Kyle Kuzma may deserve a higher ranking. One former NBA scout tells Hoops Rumors that Kuzma is closer to Tatum than most people think. Kuzma and the No. 4 overall pick is likely a more attractive pair of assets than Tatum and the No. 14 overall pick, a former executive said.

It’s not certain if Jaylen Brown can ever become a first or second option on a true title contender and his inability to efficiently create his own shot worries some organizations.

However, Brown is still a tantalizing talent. He remains valued despite a mildly disappointing third season and his next deal (which would begin in 2020/21) is not a worry to many within the league. He’s a notch ahead of any one of the Knicks’ current players, per several sources.

10. Kevin Knox (Knicks)
11. Mitchell Robinson (Knicks)

Some remain high on Kevin Knox, with one league official telling Hoops Rumors that the former No. 9 overall pick is “right there” with this year’s Knicks selection (No. 3) as the team’s top asset.

Some would rather Knox over Dallas’ 2021 pick. Others were more bearish on Knox. There was a sense that he remains the team’s most valuable player under contract, but there are surely teams around the league that don’t believe he’s likely to become All-Star worthy. If the Pelicans are in that group, then he’s not adding a ton of value in a Davis proposal.

Marc Stein of the New York Times previously reported that Mitchell Robinson would be a top-10 pick if the league re-did the 2018 draft. The chatter we heard echoes that sentiment. One former scout tells Hoops Rumors that Robinson can be an elite defensive big, though he still has work to do in learning how to play at the NBA level.

Robinson’s contract can be considered the definition of team-friendly. It’s essentially the sort of standard rookie-scale deal a first-round pick would sign (with non-guaranteed money instead of a typical team option in year three). He’ll take home roughly $1.62MM next season followed by $1.66M (non-guaranteed) and then about $1.8M in 2021/22 (team option).

If Robinson can come close to becoming “elite” in any category at that price, then we are talking about a 2013-17 Warriors with Stephen Curry-like salary cap advantage for the Knicks or whichever team acquires him in a trade.

12. Landry Shamet (Clippers)
13a. Miami’s 2021 Unprotected First-Rounder (Clippers)
13b. No. 14 Overall Pick (Celtics)

Landry Shamet‘s inclusion this high may seem surprising, considering he was sandwiched between four outgoing draft picks in the Tobias Harris deal earlier this year. However, his second half of the season with the Clippers did not go unnoticed around the league.

The Miami pick, which has now been held by four teams, came to Los Angeles in the Harris deal, and it’s a gem. Depending on what kind rebuild the Pelicans (or any other team that makes a deal with the Clippers) is looking at, the selection could be higher on this list.

Still, the certainty of production now on a cost-controlled deal (ie. Shamet, Robinson, or Knox) would trump this selection for most franchises. Additionally, many within the league remain confident in Pat Riley‘s approach with the Heat. At a minimum, there’s a belief that the club won’t bottom out and rebuild; at best, Miami will cash in at some point on its glamour location and land someone capable of lifting the team up the Eastern Conference ranks.

The No. 14 overall pick comes with the same cost-controlled benefit as a player like Shamet, but there’s no guarantee it’ll produce a prospect like him in a draft class that isn’t particularly deep.

14. Danilo Gallinari (Clippers)

Prioritizing assets this far down the list comes down to objectives. If the Pelicans want to put out a competitive product right away, Danilo Gallinari can certainly help with that. If New Orleans wants to stay on a typical trajectory when building around a No. 1 overall pick, adding a productive veteran may not make sense.

Gallinari has one season at $22.6MM left on his deal. That figure won’t scare most franchises away, especially if a team that was hoping to land a star strikes out. Pairing Gallinari with young players (such as Shamet) and picks (like that Miami 2021 selection) makes for a desirable package that checks many boxes.

15. Lakers’ 2023 First-Rounder (Lakers)
16a. 2020 First-Round Picks (Knicks, Clippers, Lakers, Celtics)
16b. 2021 First-Round Picks (Knicks, Clippers, Lakers, Celtics)
16c. 2022 First-Round Picks (Knicks, Clippers, Lakers Celtics)

These selections each come with an asterisk attached. In a vacuum, each of these picks probably belongs higher on the list. In reality, whichever team ends up trading for Davis will see the value of its future first-rounders drop, which would be reflected from the Pelicans’ side in negotiations and in other trade discussions if and when a team acquires the two-time Gold Medal Olympian.

The Lakers’ 2023 draft pick is among the highest valued picks in distant future years due to the uncertainty surrounding LeBron — his contract ends after the 2021/22 season (though that season is a player option). James will be 37 years old at the end of the four-year deal and there’s no guarantee he’ll remain with Los Angeles. Even if he does, it’s not certain what he’ll be capable of by then.

For the Pelicans, the 2021 and 2022 selections may have slightly more value than a 2020 pick, since there’s a chance that New Orleans trades Davis to a destination and he bolts next July. It can’t be assumed that Davis will re-sign with whichever team acquires him (he’s hinted that New York and Los Angeles are his preferences), but New Orleans will likely operate negotiations under the assumption that Davis will remain wherever the organization trades him to for the foreseeable future.

17. Dennis Smith Jr. (Knicks)

Would Dennis Smith Jr. fetch a first-round pick if the Knicks traded him? The answer is probably yes, though opinions ranged on the former No. 9 overall pick. Some believe he has room to grow, while others believe what you see is what you get: a score-first point guard.

18a. No. 20 Overall Pick (Celtics)
18b. No. 22 Overall Pick (Celtics)

It would be shocking if the Celtics keep all three of their first-round picks this year. It would be equally shocking if the Pelicans or any team with a star for sale find value in taking all three back. One source tells Hoops Rumors that he expects Boston to look to shop one of its first-rounders outside of a presumed offer for Davis.

19. Sixers’ 2020 Lottery-Protected First-Round Pick (Clippers)

With the Sixers coming one buzzer-beater away from an Eastern Conference Finals appearance, it may seem as if this pick is destined to fall late in the 2020 draft and league executives would be unenthusiastic about the asset. That’s not the case.

There are layers of risk in banking heavily on Philadelphia to be among the top contenders in the East next season. Jimmy Butler, Harris, and J.J. Redick will hit the open market. If they all come back, the Sixers have limited resources in filling out their bench. The long-term health of Joel Embiid remains a variable, according to several sources around the league. Plus, if teams like the Celtics and/or Knicks land stars, the conference could become more competitive, knocking the Sixers down a rung.

The Sixers are likely to be good again next season. They could even be the favorite in the conference depending on what happens with Kawhi Leonard, Irving, and Davis. However, in the equation of this pick’s valuation, a bevy of variables exist and it can’t be assumed that this selection will land in the mid- to late-20s.

20. Brandon Ingram (Lakers)

Acquiring Brandon Ingram comes with massive risk. From a talent perspective, he remains highly coveted, with one former scout telling Hoops Rumors that Ingram would be above the Knicks’ current group of players. However, he’s extension-eligible this summer and given his health concerns (he underwent surgery to treat blood clots in March), the Pelicans or any team will have to be wary of trading for the former No. 2 overall pick. There’s just one year left on his rookie deal.

21a. Marcus Smart (Celtics)
21b. Montrezl Harrell (Clippers)
21c. Lou Williams (Clippers)

Marcus Smart signed a four-year, $52MM extension with the Celtics last summer and that deal is viewed favorably around the league. Several sources tell Hoops Rumors that Boston could fetch an asset if they look to move Smart by himself. If he happens to be part of a Davis deal, his value is likely to be part of the calculus of the trade.

Montrezl Harrell is a steal at $6MM for next season, but he’ll be a free agent next summer and figures to become pricier. Lou Williams had an incredible season at age 32, likely cementing a yet another Sixth Man of The Year award. He has two seasons left on his contract at $8MM annually — the 2020/21 figure is even non-guaranteed in case things go unexpectedly south next season.

It’s unlikely that the Pelicans look to acquire him in a Davis deal, but make no mistake, Williams would garner an asset if the Clippers moved him this offseason to clear cap space or if he’s sent to another team in a three-way AD trade.

22. Mavericks’ 2023 Top-10 Protected First-Rounder (Knicks)

The Mavericks’ 2023 first-rounder is intriguing, but it doesn’t come with the upside potential of the 2021 selection. Best-case scenario, it’s a late lottery pick in 2023. Worst-case scenario, it remains protected for three years and eventually becomes a single second-round pick in 2025.

23. Josh Hart (Lakers)
24a. Jerome Robinson (Clippers)
24b. Moritz Wagner (Lakers)

Josh Hart may have the brightest future of this group of young prospects, but his payday is coming the soonest — he’ll be extension-eligible in 2020 or RFA-eligible in 2021. Jerome Robinson and Moritz Wagner could still further develop and each has three years left on his rookie contract.

25. Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)

Frank Ntilikina was a player there was a major schism on. Some around the league believe he still has trade value and shouldn’t be considered simply a “throw-in.” He still hasn’t turned 21 years old, and there have been many instances of young prospects floundering as top-10 selections in one spot, only to resurrect their careers with a new team.

Ntilikina’s rookie-scale contract encapsulates the risk and reward associated with acquiring the former No. 8 overall pick.

He’ll make slightly over $4.85MM during the 2019/20 campaign and whichever team acquires him will have until the end of October 2019 to make a decision on his team option worth $6.18MM for the following season—the final year of his rookie deal.

Teams will only have played a handful of games by that point next season, so a front office won’t have much of an opportunity to evaluate the point guard before making a lucrative commitment for the following season. Conjointly, there’s no long-term upside in the contract, as he’s only under team control through the 2020/21 season.

Other Players, Picks By Team

Celtics

Gordon Hayward
Robert Williams
Guerschon Yabusele
Semi Ojeleye
No. 51 Overall Pick
2023 First-Round Pick
2024 First-Round Pick
2025 First-Round Pick
2020 Second-Round Pick
2020 Second-Round Pick (via Atlanta; top-55 protected)
2021 Second-Round Pick
2022 Second-Round Pick
2023 Second-Round Pick
2024 Second-Round Pick
2025 Second-Round Pick

Clippers

Tyrone Wallace
Sindarius Thornwell
No. 48 Overall Pick
No. 56 Overall Pick
2023 First-Round Pick
2024 First-Round Pick
2025 First-Round Pick
2020 Second-Round Pick
2021 Second-Round Pick (via Detroit)
2022 Second-Round Pick
2023 Second-Round Pick
2023 Second-Round Pick (via Detroit)
2024 Second-Round Pick
2025 Second-Round Pick

Knicks

Damyean Dotson
Henry Ellenson
Allonzo Trier
John Jenkins
Lance Thomas
No. 55 Overall Pick
2023 First-Round Pick
2024 First-Round Pick
2025 First-Round Pick
2020 Second-Round Pick (via Charlotte)
2021 Second-Round Pick (via Charlotte)
2022 Second-Round Pick
2023 Second-Round Pick
2024 Second-Round Pick
2025 Second-Round Pick

Lakers

Isaac Bonga
Jemerrio Jones
2024 First-Round Pick
2025 First-Round Pick
2020 Second-Round Pick
2022 Second-Round Pick
2023 Second-Round Pick
2024 Second-Round Pick
2025 Second-Round Pick

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: New York Knicks

May 28th, 2019 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

One of the NBA’s most iconic franchises, the Knicks have also been one of the league’s most dysfunctional in recent years. They’re set to enter a crucial offseason after having won between 17 and 32 games in each of the last five seasons.

Having been unable to put together a core of promising young building blocks during their on-again, off-again rebuild over those five years, the Knicks will rely on other assets to improve the roster during the summer of 2019. With a handful of extra future first-round picks in hand and more cap room available than any other NBA team, New York theoretically has the resources necessary to sign two maximum-salary free agents and acquire a third one in a trade.

After months of speculation about which players the Knicks might be able to actually land, we’ll get our answer in the coming weeks.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will Kevin Durant sign with the Knicks?

Durant himself has given no indication that he’s dead set on leaving the Warriors or that he has a specific destination in mind when he reaches the free agent market this offseason. But based on how the NBA rumor mill works, there’s a widespread belief that the Knicks are already preparing to print thousands of No. 35 jerseys for the 2019/20 season. Reports all season from outlets across the county have indicated that NBA insiders expect Durant to end up in the Big Apple.

Whispers of Durant leaving Oklahoma City for Golden State persisted throughout the second half of the 2015/16 season, and the idea that LeBron James would leave Cleveland for the Lakers was a constant source of speculation leading up to his 2018 free agency. Those are just two high-profile examples of why we should take all the rumors linking Durant to the Knicks seriously.

Even in instances where the NBA’s rumor mill doesn’t necessarily get it right, there can be plenty of warning signs along the way pointing to the eventual outcome. Last summer, for instance, there was a widespread belief that Paul George wanted to join the Lakers, but sourced reports in the weeks and months leading up to his free agency repeatedly stated that the Thunder remained very confident in their ability to re-sign him. If you didn’t discount those reports as misguided optimism, you weren’t surprised by George’s eventual decision to stay in Oklahoma City.

All of this is to say that where there’s smoke, there’s probably fire — those Knicks rumors are coming from somewhere, and there’s reason for New York basketball fans to be excited about the possibility of their team signing Durant.

Still, until Durant puts pen to paper, this is far from a done deal. Since the regular season ended, there have been reports suggesting that uncertainty about Durant’s future has increased, along with reports indicating that the Warriors are still getting a sense that KD might stay. If he doesn’t choose the Knicks, we could be looking back at those stories as the warning signs we missed.

2. How about Kyrie Irving or Kemba Walker?

Durant’s decision is at the top of the Knicks’ offseason flowchart — depending on whether or not he signs with the team, the offseason may head in drastically different directions, as that decision will have a ripple effect on the rest of New York’s offseason moves.

The point guard question is the second item on that hypothetical flowchart. If Durant decides to play in New York, it seems likely that he’ll bring another top free agent along with him, and Irving and Walker look like two of the most logical fits. Kyrie is good friends with KD, while Walker is a New York native who would likely relish the idea of playing his home games in Madison Square Garden.

The Nets, Lakers, Clippers, and other teams – including the Celtics for Irving and the Hornets for Walker – will also be in the mix for these two point guards, and if one of the two commits to another club, the Knicks figure to zero in on the other. But as long as both players are available, it will be interesting to see which one the team pursues more aggressively.

Given his injury history and his drama-filled season in Boston, Irving no longer appears to be as safe as investment as Walker, but his on-court upside is much higher. Plus, if Durant commits to the Knicks and says he wants to team up with Irving specifically, the team probably won’t argue with him.

If Durant doesn’t come to New York, the Knicks’ outlook at this spot gets even murkier. Is it still worth pursing Irving and/or Walker, perhaps to pair with another second-tier target like Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, or Khris Middleton? That brings us to our third question…

3. What’s Plan B if the Knicks don’t land their top free agent targets?

With the Knicks apparently targeting some combination of Durant and either Irving or Walker, their Plan A looks obvious: Sign two of those free agents and trade the necessary pieces to New Orleans for Anthony Davis to secure a new Big Three.

But what if the Knicks only get a commitment from one of their top free agent targets? What if another team outbids them for Davis? The Knicks could find themselves with one established star set to join a group of unproven young prospects, with upwards of $35MM in cap room still available. In other words, they’d be a poor man’s version of the 2018/19 Lakers.

At that point, the Knicks would have to decide how best to use that remaining cap room to maximize their chances of contending in the long term.

Could they, as the Lakers did, sign a series of veteran free agents to one-year contracts to fill out the roster and try to contend right away? Would it make more sense to invest the rest of their cap room into a single free agent, even if that player is only a borderline All-Star and wasn’t their top target? Or should they go the other direction and take things slow by using their cap room to acquire unwanted contracts and extra assets to try to accumulate even more capital for a future trade for a star?

Free agency will move quickly and these decisions won’t be easy, but the Knicks would be wise to avoid massive investments on second-tier free agents. Using cap room to accommodate salary dumps or one-year contracts would be disappointing, but it would at least allow the club to retain its flexibility and take another swing at big targets in a year or two.

4. How strong is the Knicks’ Anthony Davis trade package?

Whether they sign two star free agents or strike out entirely on the open market – or anything in between – the Knicks could make a play for Davis, aiming to secure a long-term commitment from him when he becomes eligible for free agency in 2020.

In theory, the Knicks should have a handful of players who would make good trade chips in an offer for Davis. Of their four players on guaranteed contracts for 2019/20, three (Dennis Smith, Frank Ntilikina, and Kevin Knox) are top-10 picks from the last two drafts, and the fourth (Mitchell Robinson) is arguably a more promising prospect than all of them.

Still, the most intriguing player in a potential Knicks offer might be one that’s not actually on their roster yet. With the No. 3 pick in the 2019 draft, the club is in position to select Duke forward R.J. Barrett. Once considered the odds-on favorite to be selected first in this year’s draft, Barrett had more ups and downs than expected in his freshman year as part of a Blue Devils roster that lacked outside shooting, and was surpassed on big boards by Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.

Still, Barrett is a potential star who would be on a rookie contract for four years and then would likely be under team control for another four or five. When a club trades away an established All-Star, the winning offer is generally headlined by one player that the club likes more than any other asset available in other offers. There’s no guarantee that the Pelicans feel that way about Barrett instead of, say, Jayson Tatum. But if they do, the Knicks would have a real shot at winning the Davis sweepstakes.

5. Which of the Knicks’ young players are worth investing in?

If the Knicks’ dream scenario – two star free agents and a Davis trade – plays out, this question may be moot. After all, the team would have to trade just about all its young prospects in order to match Davis’ salary.

In any other scenario though, the club will have to take a long, hard look at players like Smith, Ntilikina, Knox, Damyean Dotson, Allonzo Trier, and others to determine whether it’s realistic to expect them to be part of the Knicks’ long-term future.

Those decisions won’t have to be made right away in every case, but many of them are due soon. Trier has a club option for 2019/20, while Dotson has a non-guaranteed salary for next season before reaching restricted free agency in 2020. Smith and Ntilikina will be extension-eligible in 2020 if their ’20/21 options are exercised.

The 2018/19 season should have been the time to evaluate many of these players, but inconsistent lineups made the outlook murkier than ever for many of them. The point guard rotation, for instance, featured plenty of Emmanuel Mudiay and Trey Burke at the expense of Ntilikina.

While Ntilikina is still just 20 years old and may have untapped potential, he’ll reportedly be on the trade block this offseason. If the Knicks are willing to move on from the former No. 8 pick after just two seasons, the clock is ticking on prospects like Knox and Smith as well.

Check out the New York Knicks’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Khris Middleton

May 27th, 2019 at 7:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Bucks intend to re-sign all of their top free agents after reaching the Eastern Conference finals. But is that the best course of action?

The biggest question mark surrounds Khris Middleton, generally considered the second-best player on the team behind MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo. Middleton will opt out of the last year of his contract, which would pay him $13MM, and head to unrestricted free agency.

Once marquee agents such as Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler come off the board, Middleton would be viewed as a nice consolation prize for teams with salary-cap space that don’t land one of the big stars. Middleton averaged 18.3 PPG and career highs of 6.0 RPG and 4.3 APG this season after posting an average of 20.1 PPG last season. Middleton is a career 38.8% 3-point shooter and, at 27, in his prime years.

The nagging question is can Middleton be the second-best player on a championship team? Middleton had a 30-point outburst in Game 4 against the Raptors but averaged 10.2 PPG in the five other games of the conference finals.

A max offer for Middleton would be an approximate $189.6MM commitment over five years; he could receive a max of $140.6MM over four years from another team. Whether he gets the max or something close to it, it’s going to be awfully expensive to retain him.

An alternative for the Bucks would be to shoot higher themselves and try to convince a big-name free agent to come their way. The other approach would be to absorb the salary of an All-Star caliber player in a trade with the savings they’ll get by allowing Middleton to sign elsewhere. That doesn’t seem to be the way the Bucks are leaning but it would be a bolder approach.

That leads us to our question of the day: Should the Bucks go all out to re-sign Khris Middleton or should they seek another star to pair up with Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Please take to the comments section to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to your input.

Trade Rumors App For iOS/Android

May 27th, 2019 at 1:14pm CST by Luke Adams

If you enjoy Hoops Rumors on your smartphone or tablet, be sure to check out our free Trade Rumors app!

Trade Rumors, available for iOS and Android, is the best way to consume our content on a mobile device. Here’s what it delivers, all for free:

All the articles from Hoops Rumors, MLB Trade Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors in an easy-to-navigate, eye-catching format. Swipe through stories to quickly consume all the news and rumors from our four sites. Not into all four sports? No problem – any sport can be easily removed.
Customize what you see. You can create feeds for any team or player across any of our sites.
Notifications. For any team or player, you can set up push notifications to ensure you always get breaking news instantly. Notifications can also be set up at the sport level.
Commenting. You can read and contribute comments on the app seamlessly.
Customer service. If you find a bug, we’ll fix it. If you have a feature request, we’ll consider it. The app is continually evolving and improving.
Did we mention Trade Rumors is a free app? What do you have to lose? Download it now!

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Players Eligible For Rookie Scale Extensions In 2019

May 27th, 2019 at 11:46am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA’s new league year begins on July 1 – or, starting this year, June 30 – players eligible for free agency will be able to begin negotiating and reaching contract agreements with suitors. In addition to those free agents, another group of players will also become eligible to sign new deals.

For players who are entering the fourth and final year of their rookie scale contracts, the first day of the new league year is the first day they can agree to rookie scale extensions. Those players, who are almost exclusively 2016 first-round selections, will have until the day before the 2019/20 regular season to finalize long-term agreements with their current teams.

Players eligible for rookie scale extensions can sign new deals that run for up to four – or five – years, with those contracts taking effect to start the 2020/21 season. If they don’t sign extensions during the coming offseason, those players will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2020.

A year ago, five players eligible for rookie scale extensions signed new deals between July 1 and the start of the season, which was a fairly modest number compared to some other recent offseasons. We should have at least that many viable candidates for rookie scale extensions this time around, though that doesn’t mean they’ll all sign new contracts.

Here are the players who will be eligible to sign rookie scale extensions this year before opening night:

Malik Beasley (Nuggets)
DeAndre’ Bembry (Hawks)
Jaylen Brown (Celtics): Extended
Kris Dunn (Bulls)
Juan Hernangomez (Nuggets)
Buddy Hield (Kings): Extended
Brandon Ingram (Pelicans)
Damian Jones (Hawks)
Skal Labissiere (Trail Blazers)
Caris LeVert (Nets): Extended
Thon Maker (Pistons)
Dejounte Murray (Spurs): Extended
Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Extended
Jakob Poeltl (Spurs)
Taurean Prince (Nets): Extended
Domantas Sabonis (Pacers): Extended
Dario Saric (Suns)
Pascal Siakam (Raptors): Extended
Ben Simmons (Sixers): Extended
Denzel Valentine (Bulls)

The following players were selected in the first round of the 2016 draft along with most of the players listed above, but aren’t eligible for rookie-scale extensions this year:

Wade Baldwin: Waived by Grizzlies in 2017.
Dragan Bender: Fourth-year option declined by Suns in 2018.
Marquese Chriss: Fourth-year option declined by Rockets in 2018.
Henry Ellenson: Waived by Pistons in 2019.
Brice Johnson: Waived by Grizzlies in 2018.
Furkan Korkmaz: Third-year option declined by Sixers in 2018.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot: Fourth-year option declined by Thunder in 2018.
Georgios Papagiannis: Waived by Kings in 2018.
Malachi Richardson: Waived by Sixers in 2019.
Guerschon Yabusele (Celtics): Signed rookie contract in 2017; could be extension-eligible in 2020.
Ante Zizic (Cavaliers): Signed rookie contract in 2017; could be extension-eligible in 2020.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

2019 Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Portland Trail Blazers

May 27th, 2019 at 10:38am CST by Luke Adams

Despite being swept out of the first round of the postseason in 2018, the Trail Blazers ran back virtually the same roster for the 2018/19 season and the team’s confidence in its core players paid dividends.

With a more favorable playoff draw in 2019, Portland won two series, earning a spot in the Western Conference Finals for the first time in nearly 20 years. The club’s success led to renewed faith in its core, including head coach Terry Stotts and president of basketball operations Neil Olshey, who both signed contract extensions.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Trail Blazers financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Damian Lillard ($29,802,321)
CJ McCollum ($27,556,959)
Evan Turner ($18,606,556)
Jusuf Nurkic ($12,000,000)
Maurice Harkless ($11,511,234)
Meyers Leonard ($11,286,515)
Zach Collins ($4,240,200)
Andrew Nicholson ($2,844,430) — Waived via stretch provision
Skal Labissiere ($2,338,847)
Anfernee Simons ($2,149,560)
Anderson Varejao ($1,913,345) — Waived via stretch provision
Gary Trent Jr. ($1,416,852)
Festus Ezeli ($333,333) — Waived via stretch provision
Total: $126,000,152

Player Options

None

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

Jake Layman ($1,931,189 qualifying offer / $1,931,189 cap hold): Bird rights
Total: $1,931,189

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Al-Farouq Aminu ($13,218,500): Bird rights
Rodney Hood ($4,167,466): Non-Bird rights
Seth Curry ($3,354,000): Non-Bird rights
No. 25 overall pick ($2,103,000)
Enes Kanter ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Total: $24,461,452

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

Realistic cap room projection: $0
With $126MM already committed to 10 players for 2019/20, the Trail Blazers project to be back in the tax next season unless they can cut costs a little or fill out their roster extremely cheaply. Their odds of creating cap room are extremely slim.

Cap Exceptions Available

Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,711,000 ¹

Footnotes

This is a projected value. If the Trail Blazers were to reduce salary and stay out of tax territory, they could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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