Hoops Rumors Originals

Poll: NBA Conference Finals Predictions

After a pair of dramatic Game Sevens on Sunday, the matchups for this year’s NBA Conference Finals are set. The Warriors will face the Trail Blazers in the West, while the Bucks and Raptors will square off in the East.

While the Warriors’ presence in 2019’s final four is no surprise, the teams joining them there historically haven’t made a ton of deep postseason runs.

The Blazers, led by a backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, have made the playoffs for six straight years, but this is the first time this group has advanced to the Western Finals, and the first time any Portland team has made it that far since 2000. The last time the Blazers appeared in the Finals was in 1992, when Clyde Drexler‘s squad fell to Michael Jordan‘s Bulls. The franchise hasn’t won a title since 1977.

Like Portland, the Bucks haven’t appeared in the Eastern Finals in nearly two decades. In fact, coming into these playoffs, Milwaukee hadn’t won a single postseason series since 2001, when the club fell in the Eastern Finals to Philadelphia. The Bucks last appeared in the NBA Finals in 1974 and won their last – and only – championship in 1971.

While those title droughts are lengthy, Portland and Milwaukee can at least say they’ve won a championship. That’s not the case for the Raptors, who have never even appeared in the NBA Finals since entering the league in 1995. Toronto appeared in the Eastern Finals once before, in 2016, but has never gotten over the hump and represented the conference in the NBA Finals.

The Warriors, who have won three of the last four NBA titles, and the Bucks, who won an NBA-best 60 games and led the league in net rating this season, will enter the Conference Finals as the favorites. But it would be a mistake to write off the Blazers or the Raptors, who are battle-tested in this postseason after dispatching tough opponents in seven-game series. Kevin Durant‘s calf remains a question mark for Golden State, while Toronto’s veterans have significantly more playoff experience than the Bucks’ roster.

What do you think? Which two teams will end up meeting in this year’s NBA Finals?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to explain your predictions!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Community Shootaround: Lakers’ New Coach

The coaching search is over and the Lakers finally have their man.

Or men, more accurately, as former Nets and Bucks head coach Jason Kidd came along as part of a package deal with Frank Vogel. Kidd will be as an assistant and will serve as a mentor to Lonzo Ball, whose game was compared to Kidd’s coming out of college. However, it didn’t take long for speculation to spread on social media that Kidd has his eyes on Vogel’s job.

The Lakers need a transformation, and we’ll find out quickly if Vogel can make it happen. He built a reputation in Indiana as a tough, defensive-minded coach who led the Pacers to five playoff appearances and two straight conference finals. His standing took a hit during two seasons in Orlando, where the Magic were never competitive or especially strong on defense.

The most important question for any Lakers coach, of course, is how does he look to LeBron James. LeBron’s coaches have very short tenures when they don’t win over his respect, with Luke Walton recently being added to the list. Vogel doesn’t have a prior relationship with James or with any of this year’s top free agents, so his hiring wasn’t designed to give L.A. an edge in rebuilding its roster.

Ben Golliver of The Washington Post speculates that the addition of Vogel could be on ongoing source of friction inside the Lakers’ management team. He reportedly received “mixed reviews” after his interview on Thursday, with team adviser Kurt Rambis as Vogel’s top advocate.

Golliver notes that three factors could limit Vogel’s time in his new position. James, who will turn 35 in December and is only committed to the team for two more years before he can opt out, expects to contend right away. However, the Lakers have a poor defense in place and no center on the current roster, while Vogel hasn’t coached a team with a better-than-average offense since 2012.

In addition, Vogel’s short contract will make him easy to part with if the organization decides things aren’t working, and Kidd will be there looking over his shoulder.

We want to get your opinion on the Lakers’ coaching search. Was Vogel the right choice? And will he get time to succeed or will Kidd eventually take over? Please leave your answers in the space below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 5/4/19 – 5/11/19

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:

Five Key Stories: 5/4/19 – 5/11/19

If you missed any of this past week’s biggest headlines from around the NBA, we’ve got you covered with our Week in Review. Here are some of the most noteworthy stories from the last seven days:

The Lakers failed to reach an agreement with Tyronn Lue, throwing their coaching search into turmoil. Negotiations between the two parties broke down, reportedly because the Lakers only offered Lue a three-year deal. Lue also wanted to pick his coaching staff. Subsequently, the Lakers conducted interviews with former Grizzlies coach J.B. Bickerstaff and former Pacers and Magic coach Frank Vogel.

Warriors superstar forward Kevin Durant suffered a calf strain during Game 5 against the Rockets. The Warriors managed to win Game 6 in Houston and wrap up their series with the Rockets without Durant. It’s unknown how many more games Durant will miss during Golden State’s drive for a third consecutive title. Durant’s injury shouldn’t have an impact on his free agent status.

The Grizzlies interviewed Jarron Collins for their head coaching position. The Warriors assistant is just the second known candidate to be interviewed for the job. The Grizzlies previously spoke to Jazz assistant Alex Jensen. Bickerstaff was let go after the season but the front office isn’t in any rush to make a hire.

The Jazz plan to make a run at Sixers free agent forward Tobias Harris. The Jazz know they have to upgrade the roster to become serious playoff contenders. The addition of Harris would be a major boost to their underwhelming offense. According to the report, Harris will consider Utah if Philadelphia doesn’t offer him a full maximum-salary, five-year contract.

LeBron James confirmed that Magic Johnson didn’t give him advance notice he was stepping down from his post. James revealed on his HBO show that he had no idea Johnson was going to leave his post as the Lakers’ president. James said he was going through pre-game stretching exercises when he heard the news. He was disappointed that Johnson didn’t give him a call or send a text before telling the media he was resigning.

Here are 10 more headlines worth passing along this week for the NBA:

  • Warriors owner Joe Lacob vows to do whatever is necessary to re-sign Klay Thompson, who will be a free agent after the season.
  • Hornets guard Tony Parker doesn’t plan to announce a decision on whether he’ll continue playing until next month.
  • Veteran center Marc Gasol isn’t sure what his future is with the Raptors. Gasol has a $25.6MM player option should he decide to stay in Toronto.
  • Thunder power forward Patrick Patterson decided to exercise his $5.7MM player option for next season. The creates even more salary-cap issues for the tax-paying club.
  • Bucks reserve center Pau Gasol underwent foot surgery and will be out for the remainder of the playoffs.
  • The Raptors seem to be making progress in their quest to re-sign Kawhi Leonard.
  • The Warriors are hopeful both DeMarcus Cousins and Damian Jones will return this postseason.
  • Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta vows to make roster upgrades after his team was eliminated by the Warriors on Friday.
  • The Jazz promoted GM Dennis Lindsey to executive vice president of basketball operations and assistant GM Justin Zanik to the GM post.
  • Pelicans superstar Anthony Davis is unlikely to back off his trade demand despite recent developments.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Western Conference

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. With the playoffs in full swing, we turn our attention to the Western Conference:

Trey Lyles, Nuggets, 23, PF (Down) — Signed to a four-year, $10.4MM deal in 2015
Following an uninspiring regular season, Lyles has been a forgotten man in the postseason. He’s only made three cameos as coach Michael Malone has gone with a nine-man rotation with Mason Plumlee serving as the primary big man off the bench. Denver can make him a restricted free agent by extending a $4,485,665 qualifying offer, though his cap hold is $10.1MM. With hopes that Michael Porter Jr. can play next season, it’s no sure thing that Lyles will get that offer. Whether the team picks up Paul Millsap‘s $30MM option – or brings him back at a reduced rate – will also impact Lyles’ future in Denver.

Rodney Hood, Trail Blazers, 26, SG (Up) — Signed to a one-year, $3.47MM deal in 2018
No free agent has boosted his stock in the conference semifinals more than Hood, who is a big reason why Portland’s still alive. He poured in 25 points in Game 6 against Denver and has scored at least 14 points in five of the six games in the series. He drained crucial shots in the fourth overtime of the Blazers’ epic 140-137 victory in Game 3. This is same guy who averaged 3.2 PPG in the first-round series against Oklahoma City. Whether he receives offers as a starter or sixth man, Hood will get paid handsomely this summer.

Iman Shumpert, Rockets, 28, SG (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $40MM deal in 2015
Shumpert is making $11MM this season. No one is going to pay him that much on the open market anymore, but after battling injuries the past two seasons, he has once again become a valuable role player. While he barely got off the bench in the first-round series against Utah, he has been a factor in the last three games against Golden State. Shumpert has averaged 8.7 PPG in 18.3 MPG while going 7-for-13 beyond the arc during that span. He’s also helped to contain the Splash Brothers. Shumpert shouldn’t have too much trouble finding work as a second-unit player.

Kevon Looney, Warriors, 23, PF/C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $1.56MM deal in 2018
With DeMarcus Cousins and Damian Jones nursing injuries, Looney has received steady minutes during the postseason. On the star-laden Warriors, Looney’s offensive contributions have been limited to putbacks and dunks. But the 2015 first-round selection has been a factor on the boards (nine rebounds in Game 5) and at the defensive end. It’s estimated that Looney will receive offers in the $3-$5MM range, which might make him affordable for the capped out Warriors, who own his Bird Rights.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Phoenix Suns

It looked like the Suns might be on the upswing after they lucked into the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, then lured a coveted two-way forward (Trevor Ariza) away from the 65-win Rockets during free agency. However, things took an abrupt downward turn from there.

Team owner Robert Sarver‘s patience with GM Ryan McDonough ran out when Phoenix was unable to land a starting-caliber point guard in the offseason, prompting the club to fire McDonough right before the regular season began. Despite aspirations of postseason contention, the Suns spent virtually season in the basement of the Western Conference, selling off veterans like Ariza when it became clear that the playoffs were a pipe dream. To top it all off, first-year head coach Igor Kokoskov got his walking papers at season’s end.

With a new permanent GM (James Jones) and head coach (Monty Williams) now in place, there’s some optimism that this duo can finally be the winning combination for the Suns. But after losing at least 58 games for four straight seasons and not appearing in the playoffs since 2010, the team remains in prove-it mode.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will they acquire a starting point guard this year?

The days of Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, and Isaiah Thomas vying for minutes in Phoenix are long gone. The team’s current point guard depth chart, which features 2018 draftees De’Anthony Melton and Elie Okobo and combo guard Tyler Johnson, is… well, a little thinner.

Unlike last year, the Suns are unlikely to have any cap room at their disposal during the 2019 offseason, which will limit their ability to add an impact player at the position. Barring major cost-cutting moves, it’s hard to imagine the team being able to make a play for a young point guard like D’Angelo Russell or Terry Rozier, both of whom will be restricted free agents.

Second-tier RFAs like Delon Wright or Tyus Jones could be in Phoenix’s price range, but those players have yet to show they can be reliable starters. On the unrestricted market, veterans like Patrick Beverley, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Rajon Rondo, and Ricky Rubio may be realistic targets for the Suns if they don’t receive other offers that exceed the mid-level.

Of course, the draft would provide the simplest path to securing a long-term answer at point guard, but the Suns will need some lottery luck to be in a position to snag Murray State’s Ja Morant, who looks like the consensus No. 2 pick in this year’s class. Although they finished in a tie for the league’s second-worst record, the Suns only have a 27.4% chance to land a top-two pick, thanks to the NBA’s new lottery format.

If the Suns can’t get Morant, Vanderbilt’s Darius Garland could be a viable fallback option — he’s ranked fourth among this year’s prospects on ESPN’s big board, and other teams near the top of the lottery, like the Cavaliers and Hawks, have already used lottery picks on point guards in recent years, making them less-likely suitors for someone like Garland.

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Poll: Which Teams Will Win Game 7?

The Sixers and Trail Blazers each won Game Six of their respective series on Thursday, pushing a pair of conference semifinals to a seventh and deciding game.

Both of those Game Sevens are scheduled to take place on Sunday, with the Sixers and Raptors set to tip off at 7:00 pm ET, while the Nuggets and Blazers will either play before or after, depending on whether a third Game Seven is required for Golden State and Houston.

For the 76ers and Raptors, there’s a ton at stake in Sunday’s Game 7. Each team made two huge trades this season, with Toronto acquiring Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Marc Gasol, while Philadelphia landed Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. Those franchise-altering deals were made with an NBA Finals appearance in mind, so neither club would be happy with a second-round exit.

It has been hard to know what to expect from the Raptors and Sixers from game to game, as players like Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Kyle Lowry, and Gasol have looked great in one outing, then all but disappeared in the next. The fact that Game 7 will take place in Toronto should offer the Raptors an advantage. Through six games, the Raps have a +14.7 net rating at home, compared to their -8.7 mark on the road.

Home court advantage could also be crucial over in the West, as the Nuggets posted an NBA-best 34-7 record during the regular season in the Mile High City. The club hasn’t been invincible in Denver during the postseason, losing a home game in each of the first two rounds. But the difference between the Nuggets’ net rating at home (+9.2) and on the road (-3.2) vs. Portland is stark.

Although the Sixers and Blazers will go on the road as underdogs, it would be dangerous to write them off. Both teams have superstars who are capable of taking over games and single-handedly turning a potential loss into a win.

What do you think? Will the Raptors and Nuggets protect their home courts and advance to the final four? Or will will see stars like Embiid and Damian Lillard come up big and push their teams through to the conference finals?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your two cents!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder‘s 2017 trade for Paul George paid off in a big way during the 2018 offseason when they convinced the All-Star forward to sign a long-term deal with the franchise. However, despite a terrific season from George, Oklahoma City was eliminated from the playoffs in the first round for a third consecutive year, raising questions about the long-term ceiling of the current core.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Thunder financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Realistic cap room projection: $0
  • After paying the highest luxury tax bill in the NBA in 2018/19, the Thunder appear poised to blow past the tax threshold again in 2019/20. It’s possible they’ll find a way to sneak below that line, but there’s no chance they’ll have cap room and little chance they’ll gain access to the full mid-level exception and bi-annual exception.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Trade exception: $10,883,189 (expires 7/25/19)
  • Trade exception: $1,544,951 (expires 2/3/20)
  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,711,000 5

Footnotes

  1. Nader’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 5.
  2. Burton’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($1MM) after August 1.
  3. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  4. Cole’s and Collison’s cap holds remain on the Thunder’s books because they haven’t been renounced after going unsigned in previous offseasons. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  5. This is a projected value. If the Thunder were to reduce salary and stay out of tax territory, they could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Better Match-Up For Bucks?

The Eastern Conference Finals are halfway set, with the No. 1 seed Bucks set to face the winner of the Raptors/Sixers series. And while the Bucks ended up making quick work of the Celtics after losing Game 1 of that series, the match-up against Toronto or Philadelphia figures to be much more difficult.

The series between the Raptors and Sixers is now tied 3-3, and both teams have shown promise as a potential NBA Finals participant during stretches this postseason. Kawhi Leonard is having an all-time great postseason, while both Jimmy Butler and Joel Embiid (when ostensibly healthy) have played great games.

Milwaukee took two of three contests from the Sixers this season, splitting the match-ups in Wisconsin and winning in Philly, while the Raptors lost their regular season series to the Bucks 3-1 (split in Milwaukee with the Bucks winning both contests in Toronto).

So, based on the above and any other factors you may consider, which match-up do you think would be the most compelling? Would either of the series go the full seven games? Could there be a sweep? Let us know what you think in the comments.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Brooklyn Nets

A long, challenging rebuild began to pay dividends for the Nets in 2018/19, as the team finished sixth in the Eastern Conference, returning to the postseason for the first time since 2015.

With promising young players like Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, and Rodions Kurucs still on rookie deals and reliable contributors like Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris also locked up for next season, Brooklyn is set up well for the future. But the Nets will have to answer two crucial questions this summer: Will they invest big money in D’Angelo Russell, and will they be able to land a star in free agency?

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nets financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Restricted Free Agents

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

  • Standard cap room projection: $30.4MM
  • For all the talk of the Nets being a player for a maximum-salary free agent, they’d have to shed some money to create enough room for one. This projection takes into account their seven guaranteed salaries, Russell’s cap hold, and the cap holds for their two first-round picks.
  • More aggressive cap room projection: $50MM
  • If the Nets want to open up more space, waiving-and-stretching Crabbe would be one option, but it might make more sense to trade him, using one of their first-round picks as a sweetener to convince a team to take on his contract. This projection assumes the Nets trade Crabbe along with the No. 17 overall pick without taking back any salary.
  • Other scenarios:
    • The most aggressive scenario I can envision for the Nets would involve trading Crabbe and both of their two first-round picks while also renouncing Russell’s cap hold. That’s probably not a likely outcome, but it would get Brooklyn all the way up to $71.3MM in space, enough for two maximum contracts.
    • If the Nets were to retain their first-round picks and Russell’s cap hold and simply waived-and-stretched Crabbe, their cap room would increase from $30.4MM (our initial projection) to $41.8MM. This would be the simplest way to create a max slot if the team doesn’t want to sacrifice a first-round pick and doesn’t mind spreading out Crabbe’s salary across three years.
    • Attaching their No. 27 pick to Crabbe in a trade while retaining Russell’s cap hold and their No. 17 pick would leave the Nets with $49MM in cap room.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Room exception: $4,760,000 4

Footnotes

  1. Napier’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
  2. Graham’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 10.
  3. The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
  4. This is a projected value. In the unlikely event the Nets remain over the cap, they’d instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($9,246,000) and the bi-annual exception ($3,619,000).

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.