Hoops Rumors Originals

Five Key Offseason Questions: Minnesota Timberwolves

May 23rd, 2019 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Things seemed to be on the upswing for the Timberwolves in 2017/18, when the team snapped a 13-year postseason drought, winning 47 games and winning a playoff game for the first time since 2004. However, that positive momentum came to a halt last fall, when Jimmy Butler‘s trade demand disrupted and derailed the Wolves’ season before it began.

Butler was eventually traded to Philadelphia, but Minnesota was never really in the playoff hunt in 2018/19, and Tom Thibodeau‘s handling of the Butler saga ultimately led to his dismissal. Heading into the 2019 offseason, the Wolves now employ a new president of basketball operations (Gersson Rosas) and a new permanent head coach (Ryan Saunders) as the organization looks to get back on track and resume contending for the postseason.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Which players will Gersson Rosas view as keepers?

When a team overhauls its front office, that doesn’t necessarily mean a roster overhaul will follow. But executives generally have stronger attachments to players that they’ve drafted, signed, or traded for than the ones they’ve inherited.

This will be the first time Rosas has decision-making power in an NBA front office. While his long stint in Houston’s front office is somewhat instructive, we’ll be learning for the first time in the next year or two what sort of players he likes, and which Timberwolves players fit that bill.

The front office changes in Minnesota are unlikely to impact someone like Karl-Anthony Towns, who would be a franchise cornerstone no matter who is running the team. But how invested will Rosas be in players like Robert Covington and Dario Saric? They were the key assets the team received in return for Butler last fall and would still have positive trade value if Rosas isn’t attached to them. Assuming he likes them, they could become long-term building blocks for the Timberwolves.

Rosas’ evaluation of the players on his new roster will impact young prospects under contract (like Josh Okogie and Keita Bates-Diop) and veteran free agents (such as Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson) alike, so it should be an interesting summer in Minnesota as Rosas gets his first opportunity to oversee a series of roster moves.

2. What does the future hold for Andrew Wiggins?

Of all the Timberwolves players whose futures will be dictated by Rosas’ moves, Wiggins is the biggest wild card. The former No. 1 overall pick is under contract for four more years and $122MM+, and given his up-and-down play over the last couple years, there won’t be teams lining up around the league to take that contract off Minnesota’s hands.

It’s unlikely that the Wolves would want to give up the assets necessary to dump Wiggins’ salary while his value is at a low point. So whether they want him to be part of the long-term plan in Minnesota or simply want to rebuild his value, Rosas and particularly Saunders will have to work on developing Wiggins into the sort of dynamic two-way wing that many observers expected him to become out of Kansas.

While Wiggins was inconsistent even after Butler’s and Thibodeau’s respective departures, he showed flashes of upside in the second half. Out from under Butler’s shadow, and with Saunders perhaps coming up with more creative ways to utilize him, there’s optimism that Wiggins – who is still just 24 years old – has more to give the Wolves. The 2019/20 season represents a huge year for him.

3. Was retaining Ryan Saunders the right call?

Saunders, who was initially named the interim head coach in the wake of Thibodeau’s firing, remained in limbo for several weeks after the regular season ended. As the Timberwolves sought a new head of basketball operations, there were rumors that team ownership hoped the eventual hire would retain Saunders as the head coach.

Upon being hired, Rosas briefly opened his own head coaching search, but it didn’t last long. Less than a week after word broke that the Wolves were considering outside options, the club officially made Saunders its permanent head coach.

The fact that ownership was pushing for Saunders doesn’t mean he wouldn’t have been Rosas’ pick anyway. And the fact that Minnesota’s head coaching search didn’t last long doesn’t mean that the team didn’t do its due diligence.

Still, retaining the 33-year-old, who will be the league’s youngest active head coach, is a bit of a risk. Saunders has worked as an NBA assistant for a decade, but he was hired by his late father Flip Saunders in both Washington and Minnesota, his only two stops. Ryan’s coaching acumen will be put to the test in a big way over the next year or two, as he’ll be tasked with helping young players like Towns, Wiggins, and Okogie reach their full potential.

By all accounts, those players and the rest of the Wolves are fond of Saunders, which is one key reason why he was brought back. Still, the club will need to see on-court success from its young head coach before too long.

4. How will the Timberwolves address their point guard position?

With Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose, Tyus Jones, and Jerryd Bayless all under contract in 2018/19, the Wolves had no shortage of point guards available, though second-half injuries took a toll on the group. Minnesota’s outlook at the position is a little murkier going forward.

Bayless, an unrestricted free agent, probably isn’t part of the Wolves’ future plans. Rose is also an unrestricted free agent, and while Minnesota has expressed some desire to bring him back, I’d be a little surprised if he returns. Thibodeau was the one who brought him into the fold, and it seems unlikely that the club’s new decision-makers will aggressively look to retain him if he gets competitive offers from rival suitors.

Jones is a free agent too, albeit a restricted one, assuming the Wolves issue him a qualifying offer. The 23-year-old averaged career-bests in a handful of categories in 2018/19, including PPG (6.9) and APG (4.8), but he struggled with his shot and didn’t establish himself as a no-doubt keeper for the franchise. If the Wolves don’t face a ton of competition for Jones, they could bring him back on a short-term deal, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s playing elsewhere next season.

That leaves Teague, who will be entering the final year of his contract, which will pay him $19MM in 2019/20. An expiring deal like that could be a useful asset on the trade market, but with the status of the rest of the Timberwolves’ point guards up in the air, keeping the veteran around would be the safer play unless he helps net an upgrade. Although Teague’s numbers don’t jump off the page, his value shouldn’t be overlooked — the 36-46 Wolves were 23-19 last season in the 42 games he played.

5. How will the Timberwolves use the No. 11 overall pick?

The Timberwolves fell out of the top 10 in this year’s draft when they were leapfrogged by the Lakers, but there’s little consensus beyond the top three picks in this year’s class, so sliding to No. 11 may not hurt the team much.

With an unsettled point guard situation, the Wolves could look to address that position in this spot, but none of the top PGs in the 2019 class – Ja Morant, Darius Garland, and Coby White – figure to be on the board, and the team shouldn’t reach for a lesser prospect by drafting for need over talent.

One intriguing target for Minnesota in this spot would be Gonzaga forward Brandon Clarke, a versatile, defensive-minded big man who should be ready to contribute right away. Both The Athletic and ESPN had Clarke going to the Wolves in their first post-lottery mock drafts.

Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic hints that the Wolves wouldn’t necessarily rule out the possibility of moving up a few spots in the draft if a player they like – perhaps someone like White – lasts a little longer than expected.

Check out the Minnesota Timberwolves’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Team Will Win Bucks/Raptors Series?

May 23rd, 2019 at 11:08am CST by Luke Adams

When we asked for conference finals predictions 10 days ago, before each series had gotten underway, the Bucks were the clear choice in the Eastern Conference over the Raptors. In that poll, Milwaukee received just over 64% of the vote, while Toronto received less than 36%.

Now, with the series tied at two games apiece, the series is essentially in the same place it was then — it’s simply a best-of-three instead of a best-of-seven. We also have four games worth of data at our disposal, even if it’s not clear what conclusions we should – or can – draw from that data.

Are the Bucks the team we saw in Game 2, when they dominated the Raptors on both ends of the court en route to a 22-point win? Giannis Antetokounmpo posted 30 points and 17 rebounds in that contest, but he got plenty of help from his supporting cast, with Ersan Ilyasova, Nikola Mirotic, Malcolm Brogdon, George Hill, and Khris Middleton all scoring double-digit points.

The Raptors, meanwhile, got 31 points from Kawhi Leonard in that game, but only two other players – Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell – scored more than eight.

Since the series shifted back to Toronto though, the Bucks’ stars and role players alike struggled with consistency, with no Milwaukee players stringing together two consecutive great games. It was the Raptors’ depth, on the other hand, that thrived in Game 4, as the team cruised to a 120-102 victory despite getting only 19 points out of Leonard.

With the series back in Milwaukee tonight, the Bucks will be looking to rebound, and the odds are in their favor — they haven’t lost three straight games all season. Additionally, Leonard looks like he’s favoring a leg injury, and Lowry is still battling a left hand issue.

Still, Lowry has played through his injury and looks as effective as ever, while Leonard’s defense on Antetokounmpo has made the MVP candidate look uncomfortable. Giannis will need more help from struggling point guard Eric Bledsoe and other role players to advance.

What do you think? With the Eastern Conference Finals all tied up at 2-2, which team do you expect to win the series and represent the East in this year’s NBA Finals?

Vote below in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts.

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Denver Nuggets

May 21st, 2019 at 11:03am CST by Luke Adams

After narrowly missing the playoffs in 2018, the Nuggets expressed confidence in their core by bringing back virtually the same group, and that bet paid off to the tune of 54 regular-season victories, the No. 2 seed in the West, and the club’s first playoff series win since 2009. The Nuggets will count on continued improvement from some of their young players going forward, but the team may also have a little flexibility to add more reinforcements.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Nuggets financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Nikola Jokic ($27,504,630)
Gary Harris ($17,839,286)
Mason Plumlee ($14,041,096)
Will Barton ($12,776,786)
Jamal Murray ($4,444,746)
Michael Porter ($3,389,400)
Juan Hernangomez ($3,321,030)
Malik Beasley ($2,731,714)
Torrey Craig ($2,000,000)
Monte Morris ($1,588,231)
Jarred Vanderbilt ($1,416,852)
Thomas Welsh (two-way)
Total: $91,053,771

Player Options

None

Team Options

Paul Millsap ($30,350,000)
Total: $30,350,000

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

Trey Lyles ($4,485,665 qualifying offer / $10,092,747 cap hold): Bird rights
Brandon Goodwin (two-way qualifying offer / $1,443,842 cap hold): Non-Bird rights ¹
Total: $11,536,589

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Tyler Lydon ($2,190,720): Bird rights ²
Richard Jefferson ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights ³
Isaiah Thomas ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Total: $5,427,692

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

Cap room projection w/Millsap: $0
There are few wild cards on the Nuggets’ books this offseason, but Millsap is a big one. Even if his $30MM option for 2019/20 is declined – which is a safe bet – re-signing him to a more modest deal would likely eat up any available cap room and make Denver an over-the-cap team. In that scenario, the Nuggets would have the mid-level ($9.25MM) and bi-annual ($3.62MM) exceptions available, along with a series of trade exceptions, detailed below.
Cap room projection w/o Millsap: $17MM
On the other hand, if Millsap is renounced, the team could create up to about $17MM in space without shedding any other salaries. That’s not enough to contend for maximum-salary free agents, but the players a notch or two below that tier could be within reach.

Cap Exceptions Available

Trade exception: $12,800,562 (expires 7/8/19)
Trade exception: $13,764,045 (expires 7/15/19)
Trade exception: $5,919,961 (7/15/19)
Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 ⁴
Bi-annual exception: $3,619,000 ⁴

Footnotes

The salaries for two-way players don’t count against a team’s cap, but their cap holds do during the offseason.
Because Lydon’s fourth-year rookie scale option was declined, the Nuggets are ineligible to offer him a starting salary greater than his cap hold.
The cap hold for Jefferson remains on the Nuggets’ books because he hasn’t been renounced after going unsigned in 2018/19. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
These are projected values. In the event the Nuggets use cap room, they’d lose these exceptions, plus their trade exceptions, and would instead would gain access to the $4,760,000 room exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders, ESPN.com, and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Charlotte Hornets

May 20th, 2019 at 3:58pm CST by Luke Adams

Since being reborn in 2004 as the Bobcats, Charlotte’s NBA team – now the Hornets – has failed to win more than 48 games or advance past the first round of the postseason. Improbably, the 2018/19 season represented the first time during that stretch that the Hornets had even finished higher than third place in the Southeast. Unfortunately for Charlotte, that spoke more to the weakness of the division than the strength of the Hornets, as the team still missed the playoffs for a third straight season.

Entering the 2019 offseason, the Hornets find themselves at a crossroads. Given the organization’s struggles in recent years – and its inability to build a legit contender over the last 15 seasons – it might be time to blow things up and attempt another rebuild. However, it remains to be seen if ownership and management are ready to go down that road.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Is this the end of the Kemba Walker era in Charlotte?

Walker was the subject of trade rumors leading up to the 2018 trade deadline, but the Hornets overhauled their front office shortly thereafter and talk of dealing Kemba died down. He and the team said all the right things, with both sides expressing interest in a long-term union. There’s no reason to think that either side was lying or that that interest doesn’t still exist, but it’s hard to make the case that this remains the right fit.

Walker has long been the face of the Hornets, but he’s about to become eligible for a five-year contract worth up to nearly $190MM — or $221MM, if he earns All-NBA honors. Charlotte has had a hard enough time building around Walker while he has been on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the NBA ($12MM annually). Paying him upwards of three times that much as he prepares to enter his age-29 season could hamstring the team’s financial flexibility for the rest of Kemba’s prime.

As for Walker, he was probably miscast as a franchise player in Charlotte, but he has done all he could over the last eight years to try to turn the Hornets into a winner. It hasn’t worked out, and if he wants to look elsewhere for a better situation for contending, no one would blame him. The Charlotte Observer’s editorial board even encouraged the Hornets to let him do just that.

It will be fascinating to see how this situation plays out in July. Some ill-advised investments elsewhere on their roster have put the Hornets in a sort of no-win situation here. If they re-sign Walker, they won’t have the cap flexibility necessary to get him the help he needs. But if they let him walk, they may not have enough attractive assets on hand to jump-start their rebuild. It could be years before they sniff the postseason again.

2. Will the Hornets be able to shed salary?

Assuming Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist exercise their respective player options, the Hornets will be on the hook for more than $85MM next season for a five-player group that also features Nicolas Batum, Cody Zeller, and Bismack Biyombo.

If the Hornets bring back Walker and want to become a serious playoff contender, upgrading some of those spots will be a must. Those aren’t necessarily bad players, but Charlotte should be able to get more bang for its buck, given the money it’s spending on them.

Williams, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Biyombo will be on expiring contracts, while Batum and Zeller will each have two years left on their deals. The expiring trio would be easier to move, particularly if the Hornets are willing to attach draft-pick sweeteners and/or take on multiyear money. Creating cap room this offseason by dumping those contracts outright is extremely unlikely, but there could be some solid players available on the trade market if Charlotte is willing to take on future salary and surrender draft picks.

On the other hand, if Walker doesn’t return and the Hornets go into rebuilding mode, trimming salary becomes less of a priority. In that scenario, it makes more sense for the club to bide its time and wait for those expensive contracts to expire. By 2021, the Hornets’ cap would be mostly clear and they’d have spent a couple years collecting young talent, putting the team in position to make use of its newfound cap flexibility in the next stage of its rebuild.

3. Will Jeremy Lamb be re-signed?

Walker isn’t the only key contributor on Charlotte’s roster facing unrestricted free agency. You could make a strong case that Lamb was the second-most important Hornet in 2018/19. He was, at least, the team’s second-leading scorer, with his 15.3 PPG topping the club’s third-leading scorer by more than five points per game.

The former UConn standout has really come into his own in the last two years after struggling to find his footing during his first few NBA seasons. Over his last two seasons, Lamb has shown he can knock down outside shots (.358 3PT%) and make the occasional play as a ball-handler (2.3 APG). If the Hornets don’t bring him back, he’ll be missed.

Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if Lamb ultimately ends up elsewhere. He’s likely in line for a mid-level type deal this offseason. If Walker is back, money will be tight for the Hornets, and if Walker doesn’t return, an investment in a role player like Lamb may not be the best use of the team’s resources.

4. How will the Hornets use the No. 12 pick in the draft?

Whether or not they re-sign Lamb – a former 12th overall pick – the Hornets will have to figure out how best to make use of this year’s No. 12 selection.

Assuming Charlotte keeps the pick rather than using it in a trade, there’s no specific position for the team to lock in on — the Hornets could use talent at any spot, particularly if Walker departs.

Recent mock drafts from both ESPN.com and The Athletic have Kentucky forward PJ Washington heading to Charlotte, which would be an interesting fit. As Rod Boone of The Athletic observes, the team certainly hasn’t shied away from selecting Wildcats prospect in recent years, and they could use an athletic forward like Washington, who is capable of scoring on the inside.

Still, Washington is hardly the only player who would be of interest to the Hornets near the back end of the lottery. Oregon center Bol Bol would be an intriguing high-risk, high-reward play. Top international prospect Sekou Doumbouya would give the Hornets length and versatility in their frontcourt. Texas center Jaxson Hayes projects to be a solid rim protector and rim runner in the Clint Capela mold. Gonzaga’s Rui Hachimura has stretch-four upside.

Because the draft takes place before free agency, it’s possible the Hornets won’t have clarity on Walker’s future by the time they make this selection, but if their star point guard leaves and the rebuild begins, it’s even more important that Charlotte gets this pick right.

5. Will Tony Parker be back?

The longtime Spurs point guard, who signed with the Hornets in 2018, has a second year on his contract with Charlotte but has yet to decide whether or not he’ll retire. Parker has said multiple times since the season ended that he’s “50/50” on playing vs. retiring, adding that if he returns, he wants his team to at least be in the playoff mix, if not vying for a title.

While Parker’s deal with the Hornets is technically a two-year pact, his $5.25MM salary for 2019/20 is non-guaranteed, so even if he decides to keep playing, there’s no guarantee that Charlotte would bring him back at that price. In fact, considering he fell out of the rotation down the stretch in 2018/19, even before the Hornets had been eliminated from the postseason chase, I’d be surprised if the team doesn’t waive him and avoid that $5.25MM guarantee.

That doesn’t mean that Parker can’t sign a new contract and rejoin the Hornets for another year, but I’d expect him to explore other options if he hits the free agent market. There should be a number teams closer to contention who’d be willing to bring him aboard for the veteran’s minimum, and there’s no guarantee that Charlotte would go higher than that.

Check out the Charlotte Hornets’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Warriors Without Durant

May 18th, 2019 at 10:39pm CST by Arthur Hill

When Kevin Durant limped off the court on May 8, there were concerns that his strained calf could end the Warriors’ quest for a third straight NBA title and maybe even knock them out in the second round.

Golden State pulled out Game 5 against the Rockets that night and hasn’t lost since, building a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors have reverted back to a brand of basketball that was successful before Durant arrived, with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all taking expanded roles on offense.

That’s important not only for the rest of the playoffs, but maybe for next season as rumors continue that Durant will leave for the Knicks or possibly somewhere else this summer. Although the Warriors finally have full Bird rights on Durant and can offer him more than anyone else, the challenge of succeeding in a new situation might be more important to him than money.

Although it won’t be easy to replace 26.0 points, 6.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game, Golden State would essentially go back to the same team that won a title and then 73 games in the two seasons before Durant arrived. Curry has reverted to his MVP form since Durant’s injury, and Thompson and Green have been better as well with more shots available.

There has been talk that the Warriors are better without Durant, but Sam Amick of The Athletic dismisses that as a ridiculous notion. He points out that Durant has been the MVP of the last two NBA Finals and that the team didn’t reach a dynasty level until Durant arrived.

Durant’s teammates don’t believe it either.

“I think everybody in this organization knows that we’re a better team with Kevin,” Quinn Cook told Amick after Thursday’s game. “… He’s been a superstar since he’s been in the league, so there’s a different narrative every day. I think he’s used to that. (But) he has a relationship with everybody on the team, so I think he knows how we all feel about him. … Everybody has to step up in his absence. That’s really the biggest thing. Everybody has been stepping up because we know we don’t have the best player on our team.”

We want to get your opinion on how the Warriors will survive without Durant — during the rest of the playoffs if he can’t return and next season if he signs somewhere else. Please leave your answers in the space below.

Hoops Rumors Originals: 5/11/19 – 5/18/19

May 18th, 2019 at 12:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Every week, the Hoops Rumors writing team creates original content to complement our news feed. Here are our segments and features from the past seven days:

We continued to move through this year’s playoff teams in our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series, breaking down the summer cap outlooks for the following clubs:
We previewed the 2019 offseason for a few more teams, identifying “Five Key Offseason Questions” facing these squads:
In his weekly Free Agent Stock Watch feature, Dana Gauruder examined some conference finals participants whose stock has increased or decreased as of late.
Leading up to Tuesday’s draft lottery, we provided a primer for the event. After the results were announced, we listed all 60 of this year’s picks by round, and rounded up 2019’s draft picks by team too.
The latest installment of our Hoops Rumors Glossary series dug into “Base Year Compensation,” a concept that technically still applies to a specific scenario in free agency, even if the term no longer shows up in the NBA’s CBA.
In a pair of polls this week, we asked which teams would win the conference finals and whether the NBA’s draft lottery tweaks were effective.
In our lone Community Shootaround discussion, we focused on the Lakers‘ head coaching decision.

Categories:
Hoops Rumors Originals

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Conference Finals

May 17th, 2019 at 6:52pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at some of the players currently in the conference finals:

DeMarcus Cousins, Warriors, 28, C (Down) — Signed to a one-year, $5.3MM deal in 2018
Cousins made a snap decision on the second day of free agency last July to bet on himself and chase a ring. There’s a very good chance he’ll get the latter; as for landing a big multi-year contract this summer, that’s a major question mark. He’s unlikely to play against Portland due to the quad injury he suffered in the opening round. There’s no guarantee he’d be back for the Finals. Cousins played well after returning from his one-year rehab for an Achilles tear but it’s fair to question whether the injuries will continue to pile up for the big man.

Seth Curry, Trail Blazers, 28, SG (Up) — Signed to a one-year, $2.8MM deal in 2018
Seeing the Curry brothers go at each other has added to the entertainment value of the conference finals. Seth didn’t fare so well in Game 1 (three points on 1-for-7 shooting) but he was a major factor in Game 2 with 16 points, including four 3-pointers, and four steals. After missing all of last season with a left leg injury, the less-heralded Curry has proven to be a valuable rotation player. The Pistons reportedly have him high on their list of free agent targets. They certainly won’t be alone — career 43.9% 3-point shooters tend to attract a crowd.

Marc Gasol, Raptors, 34, C (Down) – Signed to a five-year, $113.2MM deal in 2015
Gasol said earlier this month he’s undecided whether to exercise his $25.6MM player option. At this stage of his career, Gasol is probably more focused on being a good fit and feeling comfortable than his bank account. But he’d be losing many millions if he doesn’t opt in. Quite frankly, he’s no longer a $25MM player. More than half of his field-goal attempts in the playoffs have come from beyond the arc and he’s not making them. He shot 26.9% from deep against the Sixers in the conference semis and went 2-for-7 in Game 1 against the Bucks. He’s scored in single digits in 10 of 13 games this postseason.

Brook Lopez, Bucks, 31, C (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $3.4MM deal in 2018
Following a series of forgettable conference semifinal outings, Lopez blew up in Game 1 against Toronto. He piled up 29 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks to carry the Bucks to an early lead in the series. Lopez was arguably the biggest bargain in free agency last summer. He was an ideal fit for the Bucks’ high-powered attack as a ‘stretch five.’ His advanced defensive numbers this season were the best of his career. Milwaukee has other free agency concerns, most notably Khris Middleton, but re-signing Lopez should be a high priority as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Memphis Grizzlies

May 17th, 2019 at 3:38pm CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies made the postseason for seven years in a row before a dismal 2017/18 season in which they won just 22 games. The team hoped that nosedive in the standings would be short-lived and entered the 2018/19 campaign aiming to return to the playoffs.

While Memphis rebounded to some extent, it wasn’t enough. After a 33-win showing this season, Marc Gasol has been traded to the Raptors and there’s a chance that Mike Conley will follow him out of town in the not-too-distant future.

The Grizzlies never advanced further than the Western Conference Finals with Conley and Gasol as their centerpieces. With that era coming to an end, new cornerstones Jaren Jackson and – barring a draft-day surprise – Ja Morant will be tasked with helping the organization get back to contention in the coming years.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. Will the Grizzlies trade Mike Conley?

This year’s draft lottery results altered the outlook of the Grizzlies’ offseason. Halfway through the announcement of those results, we knew that the Lakers had jumped into the top four from No. 11, and it looked like the Grizzlies – who were No. 8 in the lottery standings – might not even have a first-round pick at all, since their top-eight protected first-rounder was owed to the Celtics.

Instead of landing at No. 9 though, that selection moved all the way up to No. 2. Not only do the Grizzlies still have their pick, but they’re now in great position to draft Morant, the Murray State point guard who appears to have emerged as the clear-cut top prospect behind Zion Williamson in the 2019 draft class.

With over a month until draft day, there are still a number of directions the Grizzlies could go with that pick, including trading down or choosing R.J. Barrett over Morant. But early reports suggest they’re “locked in” on Morant, so we’ll assume that’s the case. What happens with Conley now?

Having lost his longtime running mate Gasol earlier this season, Conley seemed resigned to the fact that his time in Memphis would soon be up too, and there are no shortage of possible trade partners for the Grizzlies. The Jazz, Pistons, and Pacers were said to be in the mix for the veteran at the trade deadline, and the Heat and Mavericks are among the other clubs cited as potential suitors.

If the Grizzlies favor a high draft pick, the Heat (No. 13) and Mavericks (No. 15) could be the best matches in that group. On the other hand, if they don’t get an offer to their liking, hanging onto Conley wouldn’t be the worst outcome. He’d be a great mentor for Morant, and Memphis could revisit the trade market before 2020’s deadline.

Based on the success Conley had last season, his stock may never be higher than it is right now, but the Grizzlies shouldn’t simply take whatever they can get for him if the offers this summer are underwhelming.

2. What will the rest of the Grizzlies’ backcourt look like?

Beyond the possibility of drafting Morant and/or trading Conley, there are a number of other uncertainties in the Grizzlies’ backcourt this summer.

The club will have to decide how to handle Avery Bradley‘s contract situation early in the offseason. Bradley is on the books for $12.96MM in 2019/20, but only $2MM of that total is guaranteed up until July 3.

While Bradley struggled to make an impact during his stint with the Clippers, he looked great in 14 games for the Grizzlies last season, averaging 16.1 PPG and 4.0 APG with a .463/.384/.920 shooting line and strong defense. If Memphis thinks he can give the team that sort of production again, guaranteeing his ’19/20 salary looks like the right call — especially since re-signing him after waiving him would be tricky, due to the loss of his Bird rights.

Delon Wright, meanwhile, averaged over 30 minutes per game down the stretch for the Grizzlies after being acquired as part of the Gasol package and will now be eligible for restricted free agency. The 27-year-old would be a solid and versatile backup at the point, but his future may hinge in part on what the club does with Conley and Bradley. If both veterans return, the Grizzlies’ payroll could start to get a bit too close to the tax line for comfort, reducing the team’s ability to make Wright a fair offer based on his market.

3. Will Jonas Valanciunas and Chandler Parsons be back on pricey expiring contracts?

It’s somewhat unfair to group these two players together. In Valanciunas’ case, the question will likely be whether he picks up his $17MM+ player option or signs a longer-term deal with the Grizzlies. Parsons, on the other hand, has his $25MM+ salary locked in already, but doesn’t appear to be part of the club’s future plans and could be traded or waived this summer.

Getting off either player’s salary would help keep team salary in check for the Grizzlies this summer, but I expect the team will do all it can to bring back Valanciunas. He was the most important incoming asset in the Gasol trade and looked great in Memphis, averaging a double-double (19.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG) in just 27.7 minutes per contest (19 games). While he has seven years of experience to Wright’s four, Valanciunas is also just 27 years old and could become a fixture in the Grizzlies’ frontcourt for years to come.

The same probably can’t be said for Parsons, whose time in Memphis has been marred by health issues. Since signing a maximum salary contract in 2016, the veteran forward has appeared in just 95 games for the team, posting the worst per-game stats of his career.

With no pressing need to move Parsons’ salary to clear cap space, I don’t expect the Grizzlies to aggressively try to get out from under the last year of his contract. If absolutely necessary, Memphis could waive-and-stretch him, but doing so would add $8MM+ to the team’s books for two additional seasons, meaning the front office will do all it can to avoid that outcome.

4. Who will be the Grizzlies’ next head coach?

Valanciunas recently told Lithuanian journalist Donatas Urbonas that the Grizzlies’ head coaching hire would have a “big impact” on his free agent decision, so perhaps the team needs to answer this question before addressing JV’s future.

Memphis has taken its time so far with its head coaching search, having parted ways with J.B. Bickerstaff way back on April 11. Virtually every team that has made a coaching change this spring has already wrapped up its search, with the Timberwolves – who just decided this week to open up a search – representing the lone exception.

We also have little sense of which candidates the Grizzlies are considering. Interviews for Warriors assistant Jarron Collins and Jazz assistant Alex Jensen have been reported, but otherwise it appears the club is keeping things close to the vest.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with a team taking over a month to choose a new head coach, or with attempting to keep a lid on which candidates they may be targeting or interviewing. Still, the Grizzlies’ process has been an unusual one by NBA standards, and it will be fascinating to see where it eventually leads them.

5. How will the Grizzlies’ new front office structure work?

In addition to firing Bickerstaff, the Grizzlies re-assigned GM Chris Wallace to the scouting department on April 11. Jason Wexler, Zach Kleiman, and Tayshaun Prince received promotions, with Rich Cho and Glen Grunwald also hired in key management roles.

Presumably, the Grizzlies have a clear idea of how the new front office structure will function, but it’s a little confusing from the outside, as none of the club’s executives hold the title of president of basketball operations or general manager.

Wexler is the Grizzlies’ new president, in charge of overseeing both the business and basketball operations departments. But neither he nor Kleiman, who is expected to assume the day-to-day responsibilities of a general manager, has an extensive basketball background.

Prince holds the role of special advisor, as does Grunwald. Cho was named the vice president of basketball strategy. While they’ll all presumably be involved in basketball decisions to some extent, it’s unclear who will be making the final call on any major moves.

Again, there may be a clear hierarchy in place here, but it will be worth monitoring during the group’s first offseason and subsequent season to get an idea of which voices have the most influence in Memphis’ front office.

Check out the Memphis Grizzlies’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2019 NBA Offseason Salary Cap Digest: Philadelphia 76ers

May 17th, 2019 at 11:34am CST by Luke Adams

With a pair of homegrown franchise players in place for the 2018/19 season, new Sixers general manager Elton Brand decided the time was right to push his chips into the middle of the table. The team went out and acquired Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris to team up with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, creating perhaps the most dominant starting lineup in the NBA. After a second-round exit, the club will now need to decide how aggressive it will be in trying to keep that group together to give it more time to jell.

Here’s where things currently stand for the Sixers financially, as we continue our Offseason Salary Cap Digest series for 2019:

Guaranteed Salary

Joel Embiid ($27,504,630)
Ben Simmons ($8,113,930)
Zhaire Smith ($3,058,800)
Jonah Bolden ($1,698,450)
Jonathon Simmons ($1,000,000) — Partial guarantee. Non-guaranteed portion noted below. ¹
Shake Milton (two-way)
Haywood Highsmith (two-way)
Total: $41,375,810

Player Options

Jimmy Butler ($19,841,627)
James Ennis ($1,845,301)
Total: $21,686,928

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Jonathon Simmons ($4,700,000) ¹
Total: $4,700,000

Restricted Free Agents

None

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Tobias Harris ($22,200,000): Bird rights
J.J. Redick ($15,925,000): Early Bird rights
Boban Marjanovic ($13,300,000): Bird rights
Mike Scott ($5,184,600): Non-Bird rights
No. 24 overall pick ($2,190,720)
Anzejs Pasecniks ($2,103,000) ²
Furkan Korkmaz ($2,033,160) ³
Amir Johnson ($1,618,486): Early Bird rights
T.J. McConnell ($1,618,486): Bird rights
Greg Monroe ($1,618,486): Non-Bird rights
Total: $67,791,938

Projected Salary Cap: $109,000,000
Projected Tax Line: $132,000,000

Offseason Cap Outlook

Realistic cap room projection: $0
This projection assumes that the Sixers retain both Butler and Harris, whose cap holds total nearly $53MM combined. In that scenario, Philadelphia would almost certainly remain an over-the-cap team.
Maximum cap room projection: $59.2MM
This is the Sixers’ cap room projection in the event that Butler, Harris, and Redick are all renounced. That seems extremely unlikely.
There are several variations that fall somewhere in between having no cap room and having $59MM+. For instance, if the 76ers only re-sign Butler, renouncing Harris and Redick, they could have $29.4MM in space. If they only bring back Harris and not those other two free agents, that figure could be $37.9MM. Re-signing Harris and Redick without Butler could result in $22.8MM in space, or even more if Redick signs for less a salary worth less than his cap hold.
Of course, other players, such as Ennis, Scott, and Pasecniks, could be wild cards here — the above projections assume that they’re not on next season’s roster.

Cap Exceptions Available

Trade exception: $957,480 (expires 11/12/19)
Trade exception: $2,339,880 (expires 2/7/20)
Mid-level exception: $9,246,000 ⁴
Bi-annual exception: $3,619,000 ⁴

Footnotes

Simmons’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 1.
Pasecniks was the 25th overall pick in the 2017 draft. His cap hold (the equivalent to the 25th overall pick in the 2019 draft) will remain on the Sixers’ books unless the team receives permission to remove it, which would ensure Pasecniks won’t be signed in 2019/20.
Because Korkmaz’ fourth-year rookie scale option was declined, the Sixers are ineligible to offer him a starting salary greater than his cap hold.
These are projected values. If the Sixers are at risk of going into tax territory, they may forfeit the bi-annual exception and have to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5,711,000) rather than the full mid-level exception. In the event they use cap room, they’d lose these exceptions, plus their trade exceptions, and would instead would gain access to the $4,760,000 room exception.

Note: Minimum-salary and rookie-scale cap holds are estimates based on salary cap projections and could increase or decrease depending on where the cap lands.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Offseason Questions: Chicago Bulls

May 16th, 2019 at 4:05pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls entered the 2018/19 season hoping to take the sort of steps forward that fellow rebuilding teams like the Kings and Hawks did. Instead, the team got off to a slow start, fired head coach Fred Hoiberg, and installed Jim Boylen in his place en route to a 22-60 finish.

Having doubled down on Boylen with a multiyear contract extension, the Bulls will enter the 2019/20 campaign counting on another year of prospect development – and Boylen’s bond with his players – to begin translating to on-court success.

Here are five key questions facing the franchise this summer:

1. How will the Bulls address their point guard position?

Kris Dunn was one of the key components of the trade that sent Jimmy Butler from Chicago to Minnesota in 2017, but unlike the two other players the Bulls acquired in that swap – Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen – Dunn hasn’t established himself as a crucial piece of the team’s future.

After a pair of up-and-down seasons in Chicago, Dunn will at the very least find himself facing competition for his starting point guard job this fall, if he’s not usurped outright by a newcomer. It’ll be a big offseason for the former No. 5 overall pick, who will be extension-eligible for the first time.

With about $20MM in projected cap room at their disposal, the Bulls have the flexibility to pursue a veteran on the free agent market to address the point guard spot. They won’t be in play for Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, or D’Angelo Russell, and investing big money in a second-tier restricted free agent like Terry Rozier may be ill-advised, but there are a number of options available.

All the way back in January, one report identified Ricky Rubio and Darren Collison as two free-agents-to-be who will be of interest to the Bulls. Collison’s teammate Cory Joseph could be another option, as could Chicago native Patrick Beverley.

Two of the more intriguing players to watch on this front are Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo — Rose, is of course a former Bulls MVP, while Rondo was well-liked by the team’s young players during his lone year in Chicago. A reunion with either player might not be out of the question.

Of course, the Bulls hold the No. 7 overall pick in the draft and could use it to draft a point guard. However, Ja Morant appears likely to come off the board at No. 2, and Darius Garland may not be available for Chicago either. After those two prospects, there are probably no true point guards worth considering that high in the draft.

2. How will the Bulls use the No. 7 pick?

While Morant and Garland may be selected within the first six picks, there’s a decent chance that another guard will be on the board for the Bulls at No. 7. North Carolina’s Coby White is more of a combo guard than a full-fledged point guard, but he could be a fit for Chicago. That’s certainly a popular theory among experts — Mark Strotman of NBC Sports Chicago recently rounded up 22 separate post-lottery mock drafts and found that 15 of them have White going to the Bulls.

ESPN’s Jonathan Givony is among those who views the UNC guard as a good fit for the Bulls, writing in his latest mock draft that White’s ball-handling and shooting ability would allow him to play alongside either Dunn or LaVine as the team figures out which of its guards are long-term keepers.

On the other hand, in his scouting report of White, Givony points out that the 19-year-old is a “wild decision-maker” who has made strides as a passer but struggles with over-dribbling and dealing with aggressive ball pressure. In other words, if the Bulls do draft him, they can’t comfortably pencil in him as their point guard of the future quite yet.

There are other options available for Chicago at No. 7. Texas Tech swingman Jarrett Culver or Virginia forward De’Andre Hunter would be solid picks if they’re still on the board. In The Athletic’s most recent mock draft, Darnell Mayberry has the Bulls nabbing Culver, observing that it wouldn’t hurt to have another two-way wing on the roster. In Mayberry’s view, it makes more sense for the club to fill its point guard need in free agency.

3. Will the Bulls bring back any of their free agents?

A year ago, the Bulls had to negotiate a new long-term contract with LaVine when he reached restricted free agency. This time around, there are no players who absolutely must be re-signed. Unrestricted free agent big man Robin Lopez and RFAs Wayne Selden and Ryan Arcidiacono headline Chicago’s relatively small group of free agents this summer.

Based on the team’s timeline for contention, it seems like Selden and Arcidiacono are the players more likely to be back, but we shouldn’t entirely rule out a new deal for Lopez. After all, the lottery-bound Bulls could have traded him at the deadline or bought him out before March 1, but opted to keep him around instead. He’s unlikely to earn $14MM+ again, so if the Bulls have some cap room left over, perhaps they’ll explore keeping him in the mix as a veteran leader on a young roster.

Of those three players though, Arcidiacono looks to me like the best bet to return. The 25-year-old was a surprisingly effective part of Chicago’s rotation in 2018/19, averaging 6.7 PPG, 3.3 APG, and 2.7 RPG on .447/.373/.873 shooting in 81 games (32 starts). He’s also coming off a minimum salary contract, so the Bulls will be able to keep his very modest cap hold on the books and then go over the cap to re-sign him once they use their cap room.

4. Will the Bulls add more shooting?

No NBA team made fewer 3-pointers in 2018/19 than the Bulls, whose 9.1 threes per game ranked dead-last in the league. Although the deadline acquisition of Otto Porter should ostensibly have helped boost that number, Chicago’s stats were even worse after the All-Star break (8.3 threes per game).

Getting Denzel Valentine back in 2019/20 should give the Bulls another outside threat, and the team will expect more from 2018 first-rounder Chandler Hutchison, who struggled from beyond the arc after posting good shooting numbers at Boise State.

Still, it wasn’t just a matter of the team’s personnel. Up until Hoiberg’s ouster, the Bulls were launching 29.3 threes per game, a below-average rate, but one that was more toward the middle of the pack. Under Boylen, that number declined to 24.5 attempts per game, easily the NBA’s lowest mark.

Boylen’s offensive philosophy has faced criticism for being old-fashioned, and the club’s low rate of outside shots is part of that. The key question for the Bulls is whether they’ll allow that philosophy to dictate the sort of roster additions they pursue, or whether the front office will still look to add a strong shooter or two to the mix. Doing so could force Boylen to modernize his offensive attack a little, making the Bulls a more dangerous team.

5. What are the expectations for John Paxson and Gar Forman?

While we’re on the subject of the front office, it’s worth questioning what the expectations are for the Bulls executives known collectively as “GarPax.”

Since appearing in the Eastern Semifinals in 2015, the team has seen its win total decline for four consecutive years. It’s time for that trend to end and start moving in the other direction, but how quickly does Bulls ownership expect it to happen?

The Reinsdorfs have been far more patient with Paxson and Forman than most Bulls fans have, giving them endorsement after endorsement when questioned about their faith in the front office. The coming year could represent a crucial turning point though.

After a turbulent 2018/19 season, the Bulls’ rebuild may be in trouble if they don’t start taking positive steps forward in ’19/20. Will team ownership see it that way too, or will Paxson and Forman continue to get all the time they need to build a roster capable of playoff contention?

Check out the Chicago Bulls’ offseason salary cap outlook right here.

Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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